Ultra Detailed Player Audit - 20260509

Player-by-player trace from JSON pipeline. Metric-by-metric comparison without wide horizontal table dependency.

Windows shown explicitly: Team recent form = latest 10 games from enhanced analysis. Player historical helpers = 75 games; balancing rates = 162 games (as implemented in services).

Color guide: Red = final above baseline, Blue = final below baseline, Green = no difference.

20260509_ATL@LAD 20260509_CHC@TEX 20260509_COL@PHI 20260509_DET@KC 20260509_HOU@CIN 20260509_LAA@TOR 20260509_MIN@CLE 20260509_NYM@ARI 20260509_NYY@MIL 20260509_OAK@BAL 20260509_PIT@SF 20260509_SEA@CHW 20260509_STL@SD 20260509_TB@BOS 20260509_WAS@MIA

20260509_ATL@LAD

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 3, "confidence": 0.5686273423277379, "home_win_probability": 0.5686273423277379, "away_win_probability": 0.43137265767226207, "predicted_score_text": "ATL 2 - 3 LAD", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to final winner probability with starter-quality caps.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "predicted_score_text": "ATL 3 - 4 LAD", "confidence": 0.5686273423277379, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score", "final_prediction_synced": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "ATL 3 - 4 LAD", "winner": "LAD"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "ATL 2 - 3 LAD", "winner": "LAD"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": -1, "home_run_delta": -1, "total_run_delta": -2, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"}}

Factors Considered: Historical team performance, Recent form (latest 10 games), Head-to-head matchup history, Player-level statistics, Recent 10-game performance trends, Pitcher recent form analysis, Team hitting/pitching streaks, Low-score probability modeling, Environmental factors, Home field advantage, Game timing factors, Seasonal adjustments, Machine learning models

Away Team: ATL

Ozzie Albies (645277) · BATTER · 2B · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 39

All-history rows before 20260509: 39

System season_avg: 0.3110

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3113

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.205	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.205	0.000	0.795	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.030	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.872	5.000	0.128	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.261	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.311	0.000	0.189	0.500
predicted_BB	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_H	1.050	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	1.205	0.000	0.795	2.000
predicted_HR	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.205	0.000	-0.205	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.351	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.363	0.000	0.137	0.500
predicted_R	0.744	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.744	0.000	0.256	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.580	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.590	0.000	-0.590	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.488	0.750	0.750	Hitting_SLG	0.523	0.000	0.227	0.750
predicted_SO	0.564	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.564	2.000	0.436	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.205	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.030	-
predicted_AVG	0.261	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	1.050	-
predicted_HR	0.250	-
predicted_OBP	0.351	-
predicted_R	0.744	-
predicted_RBI	0.580	-
predicted_SLG	0.488	-
predicted_SO	0.564	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-0.038
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.867	-0.163
predicted_AVG	0.261	0.000
predicted_BB	0.473	0.140
predicted_H	1.009	-0.041
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.241	-0.009
predicted_OBP	0.351	0.000
predicted_R	0.878	0.134
predicted_RBI	0.557	-0.023
predicted_SLG	0.488	0.000
predicted_SO	0.723	0.159

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.03), rates preserved: AVG=0.250 HR/AB=0.060

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 4.030

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	3.000	5.000	0.2105	0.3182	0.3684	0.2105	0.0526	0.1053	0.1579	0.2632
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	11.000	3.000	3.000	7.000	10.000	6.000	7.000	0.2973	0.3864	0.6216	0.2973	0.0811	0.1892	0.1622	0.1892
season	0.20	39	-	151.000	47.000	8.000	8.000	23.000	29.000	13.000	22.000	0.3113	0.3631	0.5232	0.3113	0.0530	0.1523	0.0861	0.1457

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1470
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7790
predicted_AVG	0.2610
predicted_BB	0.5480
predicted_H	0.9870
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.2370
predicted_OBP	0.3510
predicted_R	0.9500
predicted_RBI	0.5440
predicted_SLG	0.4880
predicted_SO	0.8080

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2050	0.1470	0.1673	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0300	3.7790	3.8669	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2610	0.2610	0.2610	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.5480	0.4728	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0500	0.9870	1.0091	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2500	0.2370	0.2415	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3510	0.3510	0.3510	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7440	0.9500	0.8779	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5800	0.5440	0.5566	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4880	0.4880	0.4880	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5640	0.8080	0.7226	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.311

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260508_ATL@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	645277
playerID	645277
playerName	Ozzie Albies
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	ATL
teamID	2

Mauricio Dubón (643289) · BATTER · LF · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 37

All-history rows before 20260509: 37

System season_avg: 0.2670

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2667

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.243	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.243	0.000	-0.243	0.000
predicted_3B	0.054	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.054	0.000	-0.054	0.000
predicted_AB	4.020	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.649	4.000	0.351	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.231	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.267	0.250	-0.267	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.270	0.000	-0.270	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.054	0.000	-0.054	0.000
predicted_H	0.930	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.973	1.000	-0.973	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.054	0.000	-0.054	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.326	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.327	0.250	-0.327	-0.250
predicted_R	0.459	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.459	0.000	-0.459	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.550	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.541	0.000	-0.541	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.323	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.407	0.250	-0.407	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.703	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.703	2.000	-0.703	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.243	-
predicted_3B	0.054	-
predicted_AB	4.020	-
predicted_AVG	0.231	-
predicted_BB	0.270	-
predicted_H	0.930	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.326	-
predicted_R	0.459	-
predicted_RBI	0.550	-
predicted_SLG	0.323	-
predicted_SO	0.703	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.221	-0.022
predicted_3B	0.049	-0.005
predicted_AB	3.753	-0.266
predicted_AVG	0.231	0.000
predicted_BB	0.397	0.127
predicted_H	0.868	-0.062
predicted_HBP	0.046	-
predicted_HR	0.011	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.326	0.000
predicted_R	0.288	-0.171
predicted_RBI	0.516	-0.034
predicted_SLG	0.323	0.000
predicted_SO	0.848	0.145

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.02), rates preserved: AVG=0.216 HR/AB=0.003

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 4.020

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	6.000	0.2222	0.3333	0.2778	0.2222	0.0000	0.1111	0.1667	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	8.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	6.000	3.000	4.000	7.000	0.2222	0.3171	0.3333	0.2222	0.0000	0.1667	0.1111	0.1944
season	0.20	37	-	135.000	36.000	9.000	2.000	2.000	20.000	17.000	10.000	26.000	0.2667	0.3265	0.4074	0.2667	0.0148	0.1482	0.0741	0.1926

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2090
predicted_3B	0.0460
predicted_AB	3.6100
predicted_AVG	0.2311
predicted_BB	0.4650
predicted_H	0.8340
predicted_HBP	0.0460
predicted_HR	0.0110
predicted_OBP	0.3263
predicted_R	0.1960
predicted_RBI	0.4980
predicted_SLG	0.3231
predicted_SO	0.9260

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2430	0.2090	0.2209	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0540	0.0460	0.0488	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0200	3.6100	3.7535	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2310	0.2311	0.2311	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2700	0.4650	0.3968	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9300	0.8340	0.8676	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0460	0.0460	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0110	0.0106	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3260	0.3263	0.3262	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4590	0.1960	0.2881	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5500	0.4980	0.5162	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3230	0.3231	0.3231	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7030	0.9260	0.8480	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.267

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260508_ATL@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	643289
playerID	643289
playerName	Mauricio Dubón
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	ATL
teamID	2

Drake Baldwin (686948) · BATTER · DH · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 39

All-history rows before 20260509: 39

System season_avg: 0.2970

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2975

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.128	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.128	0.000	-0.128	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.220	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	4.051	3.000	-1.051	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.239	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.297	0.000	0.036	0.333
predicted_BB	0.462	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.462	2.000	0.538	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.010	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.205	0.000	-0.205	1.000
predicted_HR	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.231	0.000	-0.231	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.337	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.380	0.400	0.120	0.100
predicted_R	0.846	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.846	0.000	-0.846	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.769	0.000	-0.769	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.410	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.500	0.000	-0.167	0.333
predicted_SO	0.949	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.949	2.000	0.051	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.128	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.220	-
predicted_AVG	0.239	-
predicted_BB	0.462	-
predicted_H	1.010	-
predicted_HR	0.220	-
predicted_OBP	0.337	-
predicted_R	0.846	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.410	-
predicted_SO	0.949	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.084	-0.044
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.061	-0.159
predicted_AVG	0.239	0.000
predicted_BB	0.511	0.049
predicted_H	0.972	-0.038
predicted_HBP	0.051	-
predicted_HR	0.211	-0.009
predicted_OBP	0.337	0.000
predicted_R	0.613	-0.233
predicted_RBI	0.426	-0.014
predicted_SLG	0.410	0.000
predicted_SO	1.057	0.108

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.22), rates preserved: AVG=0.230 HR/AB=0.050

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 4.220

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	6.000	0.2000	0.3043	0.3500	0.2000	0.0500	0.0500	0.1500	0.3000
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	10.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	4.000	5.000	11.000	0.2564	0.3556	0.4359	0.2564	0.0513	0.1282	0.1282	0.2821
season	0.20	39	-	158.000	47.000	5.000	9.000	30.000	33.000	18.000	37.000	0.2975	0.3799	0.5000	0.2975	0.0570	0.1899	0.1139	0.2342

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0610
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.9750
predicted_AVG	0.2392
predicted_BB	0.5370
predicted_H	0.9510
predicted_HBP	0.0510
predicted_HR	0.2060
predicted_OBP	0.3374
predicted_R	0.4880
predicted_RBI	0.4190
predicted_SLG	0.4101
predicted_SO	1.1150

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1280	0.0610	0.0844	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.2200	3.9750	4.0608	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2390	0.2392	0.2391	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4620	0.5370	0.5108	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0100	0.9510	0.9716	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0510	0.0510	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2200	0.2060	0.2109	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3370	0.3374	0.3373	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8460	0.4880	0.6133	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.4190	0.4264	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4100	0.4101	0.4101	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9490	1.1150	1.0569	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.297

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260508_ATL@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	686948
playerID	686948
playerName	Drake Baldwin
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	ATL
teamID	2

Austin Riley (663586) · BATTER · 3B · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 38

All-history rows before 20260509: 38

System season_avg: 0.2140

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2138

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.184	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.184	1.000	-0.184	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.816	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.816	4.000	0.184	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.231	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.214	0.500	0.036	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.342	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.342	0.000	-0.342	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.860	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.816	2.000	0.184	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.132	0.000	-0.132	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.250	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.286	0.500	-0.036	-0.250
predicted_R	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.580	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	0.605	1.000	1.395	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.079	0.000	-0.079	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.417	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.366	0.750	-0.116	-0.500
predicted_SO	1.158	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.158	1.000	-0.158	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.184	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.816	-
predicted_AVG	0.231	-
predicted_BB	0.342	-
predicted_H	0.860	-
predicted_HR	0.180	-
predicted_OBP	0.250	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.580	-
predicted_SLG	0.417	-
predicted_SO	1.158	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.169	-0.015
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.843	0.027
predicted_AVG	0.231	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.189	-0.153
predicted_H	0.880	0.020
predicted_HBP	0.011	-
predicted_HR	0.184	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.250	0.000
predicted_R	0.392	-0.108
predicted_RBI	0.594	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.417	0.000
predicted_SO	1.460	0.302

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.84), rates preserved: AVG=0.229 HR/AB=0.048

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, BvP AVG=0.125)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	2.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.816

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	8.000	0.2500	0.2500	0.4500	0.2500	0.0500	0.1500	0.0000	0.4000
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	8.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	4.000	1.000	19.000	0.2162	0.2308	0.4054	0.2162	0.0541	0.1622	0.0270	0.5135
season	0.20	38	-	145.000	31.000	7.000	5.000	23.000	19.000	13.000	44.000	0.2138	0.2857	0.3655	0.2138	0.0345	0.1586	0.0897	0.3034

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1610
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.8580
predicted_AVG	0.2309
predicted_BB	0.1060
predicted_H	0.8910
predicted_HBP	0.0110
predicted_HR	0.1860
predicted_OBP	0.2504
predicted_R	0.3340
predicted_RBI	0.6020
predicted_SLG	0.4175
predicted_SO	1.6220

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1840	0.1610	0.1691	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8160	3.8580	3.8433	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2310	0.2309	0.2309	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3420	0.1060	0.1886	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8600	0.8910	0.8801	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0110	0.0110	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1800	0.1860	0.1839	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2500	0.2504	0.2503	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.3340	0.3921	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5800	0.6020	0.5943	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4170	0.4175	0.4173	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1580	1.6220	1.4596	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.214

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260508_ATL@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	663586
playerID	663586
playerName	Austin Riley
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	ATL
teamID	2

Michael Harris II (671739) · BATTER · CF · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 30

All-history rows before 20260509: 30

System season_avg: 0.3070

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3070

Diff (system - data): -0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.800	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.800	4.000	0.200	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.333	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.307	1.000	-0.057	-0.750
predicted_BB	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.200	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.167	4.000	-0.167	-3.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.340	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.333	1.000	-0.083	-0.750
predicted_R	0.433	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.433	1.000	-0.433	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.600	0.000	-0.600	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.434	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.491	1.000	-0.241	-0.750
predicted_SO	0.700	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.700	0.000	0.300	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.100	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.800	-
predicted_AVG	0.333	-
predicted_BB	0.167	-
predicted_H	1.200	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.340	-
predicted_R	0.433	-
predicted_RBI	0.350	-
predicted_SLG	0.434	-
predicted_SO	0.700	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.071	-0.029
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.800	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.333	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.103	-0.064
predicted_H	1.241	0.041
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.106	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.340	0.000
predicted_R	0.416	-0.017
predicted_RBI	0.360	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.434	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.707	0.007

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.80), rates preserved: AVG=0.327 HR/AB=0.028

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	0.3158	0.3158	0.3158	0.3158	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.2105
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	14.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	4.000	1.000	6.000	0.3684	0.3750	0.5526	0.3684	0.0526	0.1842	0.0263	0.1579
season	0.20	30	-	114.000	35.000	3.000	6.000	18.000	13.000	5.000	21.000	0.3070	0.3333	0.4912	0.3070	0.0526	0.1579	0.0439	0.1842

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0550
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.8000
predicted_AVG	0.3325
predicted_BB	0.0680
predicted_H	1.2630
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1100
predicted_OBP	0.3400
predicted_R	0.4070
predicted_RBI	0.3650
predicted_SLG	0.4338
predicted_SO	0.7100

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1000	0.0550	0.0708	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8000	3.8000	3.8000	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3330	0.3325	0.3327	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1670	0.0680	0.1027	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2000	1.2630	1.2409	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1100	0.1065	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3400	0.3400	0.3400	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4330	0.4070	0.4161	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3500	0.3650	0.3597	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4340	0.4338	0.4339	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7000	0.7100	0.7065	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.307

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	1.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	4
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260508_ATL@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	671739
playerID	671739
playerName	Michael Harris II
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	ATL
teamID	2

Matt Olson (621566) · BATTER · 1B · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 39

All-history rows before 20260509: 39

System season_avg: 0.2930

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2933

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.385	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.385	0.000	-0.385	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.900	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.846	4.000	-0.846	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.291	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.293	0.000	-0.293	0.000
predicted_BB	0.564	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.564	0.000	0.436	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.128	0.000	-1.128	0.000
predicted_HR	0.470	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.407	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.379	0.000	-0.129	0.250
predicted_R	0.897	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.897	0.000	-0.897	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.790	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.846	0.000	-0.846	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.755	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.653	0.000	-0.653	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.385	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.900	-
predicted_AVG	0.291	-
predicted_BB	0.564	-
predicted_H	1.140	-
predicted_HR	0.470	-
predicted_OBP	0.407	-
predicted_R	0.897	-
predicted_RBI	0.790	-
predicted_SLG	0.755	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.371	-0.014
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.656	-0.244
predicted_AVG	0.291	0.000
predicted_BB	0.667	0.103
predicted_H	1.066	-0.074
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.440	-0.030
predicted_OBP	0.407	0.000
predicted_R	0.953	0.056
predicted_RBI	0.743	-0.047
predicted_SLG	0.755	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.956	-0.044

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.90), rates preserved: AVG=0.273 HR/AB=0.113

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=16.0, BvP AVG=0.188)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.900

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	5.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	4.000	5.000	0.2941	0.4286	0.7647	0.2941	0.1177	0.1765	0.2353	0.2941
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	10.000	3.000	5.000	8.000	10.000	7.000	8.000	0.2857	0.3953	0.8000	0.2857	0.1429	0.2286	0.2000	0.2286
season	0.20	39	-	150.000	44.000	15.000	13.000	33.000	35.000	22.000	39.000	0.2933	0.3793	0.6533	0.2933	0.0867	0.2200	0.1467	0.2600

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3630
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.5240
predicted_AVG	0.2910
predicted_BB	0.7230
predicted_H	1.0260
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.4240
predicted_OBP	0.4071
predicted_R	0.9830
predicted_RBI	0.7170
predicted_SLG	0.7548
predicted_SO	0.9320

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3850	0.3630	0.3707	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9000	3.5240	3.6556	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2910	0.2910	0.2910	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5640	0.7230	0.6673	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1400	1.0260	1.0659	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.4700	0.4240	0.4401	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4070	0.4071	0.4071	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8970	0.9830	0.9529	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7900	0.7170	0.7426	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.7550	0.7548	0.7549	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9320	0.9558	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.293

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260508_ATL@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	621566
playerID	621566
playerName	Matt Olson
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	ATL
teamID	2

Sean Murphy (669221) · BATTER · C · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 2

All-history rows before 20260509: 2

System season_avg: 0.1670

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1667

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	3.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.167	0.333	-0.167	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.460	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.167	0.333	-0.167	-0.333
predicted_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.167	0.333	-0.167	-0.333
predicted_SO	1.500	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.500	1.000	0.500	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.167	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.460	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.167	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.000	-
predicted_SLG	0.167	-
predicted_SO	1.500	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.167	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.486	0.026
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.167	-0.000
predicted_R	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.167	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.500	0.000

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.162 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	2	-	6.000	1.000	3.000	0.1667	0.1667	0.1667	0.1667	0.5000
last_10	0.35	2	-	6.000	1.000	3.000	0.1667	0.1667	0.1667	0.1667	0.5000
season	0.20	2	-	6.000	1.000	3.000	0.1667	0.1667	0.1667	0.1667	0.5000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.0000
predicted_AVG	0.1667
predicted_BB	0.0000
predicted_H	0.5000
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.1667
predicted_R	0.0000
predicted_RBI	0.0000
predicted_SLG	0.1667
predicted_SO	1.5000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.0000	3.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1670	0.1667	0.1668	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4600	0.5000	0.4860	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1670	0.1667	0.1668	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1670	0.1667	0.1668	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.5000	1.5000	1.5000	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.167

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260506_ATL@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	669221
playerID	669221
playerName	Sean Murphy
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	ATL
teamID	2

Eli White (642201) · BATTER · RF · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 15

All-history rows before 20260509: 15

System season_avg: 0.2090

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2093

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.067	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_3B	0.067	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_AB	2.867	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.867	4.000	0.133	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.241	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.209	0.250	-0.209	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.133	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.610	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.600	1.000	-0.600	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.276	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.239	0.250	-0.239	-0.250
predicted_R	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.467	0.000	-0.467	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.433	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.419	0.250	-0.419	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.600	3.000	3.000	Hitting_SO	0.600	1.000	2.400	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.067	-
predicted_3B	0.067	-
predicted_AB	2.867	-
predicted_AVG	0.241	-
predicted_BB	0.133	-
predicted_H	0.610	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.276	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.433	-
predicted_SO	0.600	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.033	-0.035
predicted_3B	0.113	0.046
predicted_AB	2.959	0.092
predicted_AVG	0.241	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.145	0.012
predicted_H	0.685	0.075
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.090	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.276	-0.000
predicted_R	0.331	-0.002
predicted_RBI	0.424	0.044
predicted_SLG	0.433	0.000
predicted_SO	0.740	0.140

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.96), rates preserved: AVG=0.231 HR/AB=0.031

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.2667	0.3125	0.4000	0.2667	0.0000	0.1333	0.0667	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	31.000	7.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	5.000	1.000	7.000	0.2258	0.2500	0.4839	0.2258	0.0645	0.1613	0.0323	0.2258
season	0.20	15	-	43.000	9.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	5.000	2.000	9.000	0.2093	0.2391	0.4186	0.2093	0.0465	0.1628	0.0465	0.2093

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0140
predicted_3B	0.1380
predicted_AB	3.0080
predicted_AVG	0.2409
predicted_BB	0.1520
predicted_H	0.7250
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0960
predicted_OBP	0.2759
predicted_R	0.3300
predicted_RBI	0.4480
predicted_SLG	0.4331
predicted_SO	0.8150

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0670	0.0140	0.0325	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0670	0.1380	0.1132	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.8670	3.0080	2.9587	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2410	0.2409	0.2409	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1330	0.1520	0.1454	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6100	0.7250	0.6847	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0960	0.0904	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2760	0.2759	0.2759	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.3300	0.3311	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.4480	0.4242	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4330	0.4331	0.4331	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6000	0.8150	0.7397	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.209

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260504_ATL@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	642201
playerID	642201
playerName	Eli White
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	ATL
teamID	2

Jorge Mateo (622761) · BATTER · SS · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 14

All-history rows before 20260509: 14

System season_avg: 0.2730

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2727

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_2B	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	0.000	-0.143
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.143	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.143	3.000	-0.143
predicted_AVG	0.282	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.273	0.000	-0.273
predicted_BB	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.143	0.000	-0.143
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.071	0.000	-0.071
predicted_H	0.750	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.857	0.000	-0.857
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.071	0.000	-0.071
predicted_OBP	0.296	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.304	0.000	-0.304
predicted_R	0.643	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.643	0.000	-0.643
predicted_RBI	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.214	0.000	-0.214
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.214	0.000	-0.214
predicted_SLG	0.446	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.386	0.000	-0.386
predicted_SO	1.071	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.071	1.000	-0.071

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.143	-
predicted_AVG	0.282	-
predicted_BB	0.143	-
predicted_H	0.750	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.296	-
predicted_R	0.643	-
predicted_RBI	0.250	-
predicted_SLG	0.446	-
predicted_SO	1.071	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.149	0.007
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.335	0.192
predicted_AVG	0.282	0.000
predicted_BB	0.094	-0.049
predicted_H	0.894	0.144
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.128	0.018
predicted_OBP	0.296	-0.000
predicted_R	0.622	-0.021
predicted_RBI	0.299	0.049
predicted_SLG	0.446	0.000
predicted_SO	1.060	-0.011

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.34), rates preserved: AVG=0.268 HR/AB=0.038

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	0.000	5.000	0.2778	0.2778	0.5000	0.2778	0.0556	0.1111	0.0000	0.2778
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	10.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	1.000	11.000	0.2941	0.3143	0.4118	0.2941	0.0294	0.0882	0.0294	0.3235
season	0.20	14	-	44.000	12.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	9.000	2.000	15.000	0.2727	0.3043	0.3864	0.2727	0.0227	0.0682	0.0454	0.3409

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1530
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.4390
predicted_AVG	0.2825
predicted_BB	0.0670
predicted_H	0.9710
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1370
predicted_OBP	0.2959
predicted_R	0.6110
predicted_RBI	0.3250
predicted_SLG	0.4464
predicted_SO	1.0540

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.1530	0.1495	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1430	3.4390	3.3354	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2820	0.2825	0.2823	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1430	0.0670	0.0936	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7500	0.9710	0.8936	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1370	0.1275	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2960	0.2959	0.2959	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6430	0.6110	0.6222	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2500	0.3250	0.2988	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4460	0.4464	0.4463	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0710	1.0540	1.0599	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.273

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260505_ATL@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	622761
playerID	622761
playerName	Jorge Mateo
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	ATL
teamID	2

Spencer Strider (675911) · PITCHER · Starter · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 1

All-history rows before 20260509: 1

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_ER	3.000	3.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_IP	3.100	3.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	3.100	3.100	0.000	0.000
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_SO	6.000	6.000	-3.000	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 3.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	1	3.100	3.000	4.000	5.000	6.000	1.000	8.1000	2.7000	0.9000	1.2000	1.5000	1.8000	0.3000
last_10	0.35	1	3.100	3.000	4.000	5.000	6.000	1.000	8.1000	2.7000	0.9000	1.2000	1.5000	1.8000	0.3000
season	0.20	1	3.100	3.000	4.000	5.000	6.000	1.000	8.1000	2.7000	0.9000	1.2000	1.5000	1.8000	0.3000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	5.0000
predicted_ER	3.0000
predicted_ERA	8.1000
predicted_H	4.0000
predicted_HR	1.0000
predicted_IP	3.1000
predicted_SO	6.0000
predicted_WHIP	2.7000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	5.0000	3.6000	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	3.0000	3.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	8.1000	8.1000	form_only
predicted_H	7.0000	4.0000	5.0500	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	1.0000	0.6500	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	3.1000	3.1000	3.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	6.0000	4.9500	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	2.7000	2.7000	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	3.1
H	7
R	3
ER	3
BB	1
SO	3
HR	0
BF	21
Pitches	81

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	5
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	19
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	8.10
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	3.1
Pitching_Pitches	87
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	6
Pitching_Strikes	48
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_ATL@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	675911
playerID	675911
playerName	Spencer Strider
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	ATL
teamID	2

Raisel Iglesias (628452) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 9

All-history rows before 20260509: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.022	1.000	0.178	0.200
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.444	2.000	0.556	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	WHIP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	5.000	1.000	11.000	1.0588	0.8823	0.1765	1.9412
last_10	0.35	9	9.200	6.000	1.000	13.000	0.7241	0.6207	0.1035	1.3448
season	0.20	9	9.200	6.000	1.000	13.000	0.7241	0.6207	0.1035	1.3448

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1360
predicted_ER	0.0000
predicted_ERA	0.0000
predicted_H	0.7380
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.6130
predicted_WHIP	0.8747

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1360	0.0884	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.7380	0.8297	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.0000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.6130	1.7485	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.8747	0.8747	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.00
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	19
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_ATL@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	628452
playerID	628452
playerName	Raisel Iglesias
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ATL
teamID	2

Dylan Lee (669276) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 18

All-history rows before 20260509: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.917	1.000	0.083	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.278	3.000	-0.278	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	1.000	1.000	0.000	12.000	1.5882	0.1765	0.1765	0.1765	0.0000	2.1176
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	16.000	0.9000	0.3000	0.1000	0.1000	0.2000	1.6000
season	0.20	18	17.200	2.000	6.000	2.000	23.000	1.0189	0.4528	0.1132	0.3396	0.1132	1.3019

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.0930
predicted_ER	0.1370
predicted_ERA	1.2335
predicted_H	0.1820
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.7730
predicted_WHIP	0.2750

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.0930	0.4104	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1370	0.0891	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.2335	1.2335	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.1820	0.4683	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.7730	1.5025	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.2750	0.2750	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.02
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_ATL@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	669276
playerID	669276
playerName	Dylan Lee
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ATL
teamID	2

Robert Suarez (663158) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 16

All-history rows before 20260509: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.950	1.000	0.050	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	2.000	0.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	4.000	1.000	5.000	0.0000	1.0000	0.0000	0.8000	0.2000	1.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	1.000	8.000	1.000	9.000	0.9310	0.9310	0.1035	0.8276	0.1035	0.9310
season	0.20	16	15.200	1.000	12.000	2.000	16.000	0.5745	0.8936	0.0638	0.7660	0.1277	1.0213

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1520
predicted_ER	0.0490
predicted_ERA	0.4407
predicted_H	0.8030
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9800
predicted_WHIP	0.9546

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1520	0.0988	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.0490	0.0319	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.4407	0.4407	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8030	0.5220	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9800	0.9870	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9546	0.9546	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.57
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_ATL@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	663158
playerID	663158
playerName	Robert Suarez
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ATL
teamID	2

Tyler Kinley (641755) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 18

All-history rows before 20260509: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.278	0.000	-0.278	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.856	0.100	0.144	0.900
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	3.000	8.000	2.000	7.000	2.000	6.2308	2.3077	0.6923	1.8461	0.4615	1.6154	0.4615
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	4.000	9.000	6.000	13.000	2.000	3.8571	1.6071	0.4286	0.9643	0.6429	1.3929	0.2143
season	0.20	18	16.100	5.000	13.000	8.000	18.000	2.000	2.7551	1.2857	0.3061	0.7959	0.4898	1.1020	0.1225

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5310
predicted_ER	0.5230
predicted_ERA	4.7049
predicted_H	1.3270
predicted_HR	0.3070
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.4350
predicted_WHIP	1.8581

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5310	0.3452	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5230	0.3400	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.7049	4.7049	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.3270	0.8626	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.3070	0.1996	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.4350	1.2828	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.8581	1.8581	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	12

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.76
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	9
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	5
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_ATL@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	641755
playerID	641755
playerName	Tyler Kinley
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ATL
teamID	2

Home Team: LAD

Hyeseong Kim (808975) · BATTER · SS · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 22

All-history rows before 20260509: 22

System season_avg: 0.3130

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3134

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.091	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_3B	0.045	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.045	1.000	-0.045	-1.000
predicted_AB	3.045	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.045	5.000	0.955	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.324	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.313	0.400	-0.063	-0.150
predicted_BB	0.318	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.318	0.000	-0.318	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.045	0.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_H	0.870	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.955	2.000	0.045	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.045	0.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.360	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.373	0.400	-0.123	-0.150
predicted_R	0.455	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.455	1.000	-0.455	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.364	0.000	-0.364	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.227	0.000	-0.227	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.419	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.418	0.800	-0.168	-0.550
predicted_SO	0.636	3.000	3.000	Hitting_SO	0.636	1.000	2.364	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.091	-
predicted_3B	0.045	-
predicted_AB	3.045	-
predicted_AVG	0.324	-
predicted_BB	0.318	-
predicted_H	0.870	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.360	-
predicted_R	0.455	-
predicted_RBI	0.220	-
predicted_SLG	0.419	-
predicted_SO	0.636	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.045	-0.046
predicted_3B	0.102	0.057
predicted_AB	3.230	0.185
predicted_AVG	0.324	0.000
predicted_BB	0.236	-0.082
predicted_H	1.006	0.136
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.360	-0.000
predicted_R	0.507	0.052
predicted_RBI	0.253	0.033
predicted_SLG	0.419	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.459	-0.177

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.23), rates preserved: AVG=0.312 HR/AB=0.003

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	3.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	6.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	0.3529	0.3889	0.4706	0.3529	0.0000	0.0588	0.0588	0.0588
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	10.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	5.000	1.000	4.000	0.2941	0.3143	0.3529	0.2941	0.0000	0.0882	0.0294	0.1177
season	0.20	22	-	67.000	21.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	8.000	10.000	7.000	14.000	0.3134	0.3733	0.4179	0.3134	0.0149	0.1194	0.1045	0.2090

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0200
predicted_3B	0.1320
predicted_AB	3.3290
predicted_AVG	0.3244
predicted_BB	0.1920
predicted_H	1.0800
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0100
predicted_OBP	0.3597
predicted_R	0.5350
predicted_RBI	0.2700
predicted_SLG	0.4189
predicted_SO	0.3640

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0910	0.0200	0.0449	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0450	0.1320	0.1016	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0450	3.3290	3.2296	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3240	0.3244	0.3243	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3180	0.1920	0.2361	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8700	1.0800	1.0065	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0100	0.0100	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3600	0.3597	0.3598	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4550	0.5350	0.5070	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2200	0.2700	0.2525	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4190	0.4189	0.4189	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6360	0.3640	0.4592	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.313

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	1
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260506_LAD@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	808975
playerID	808975
playerName	Hyeseong Kim
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	LAD
teamID	14

Shohei Ohtani (660271) · BATTER · DH · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 38

All-history rows before 20260509: 38

System season_avg: 0.2480

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2481

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.184	0.000	-0.184	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.850	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	4.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.248	0.250	-0.248	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.771	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.711	0.000	-0.711	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.850	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.868	1.000	-0.868	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.158	0.000	-0.158	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.386	0.250	-0.386	-0.250
predicted_R	0.714	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.658	0.000	0.342	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.570	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.421	1.000	0.579	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.132	0.000	-0.132	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.343	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.436	0.250	-0.436	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.086	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.850	-
predicted_AVG	0.222	-
predicted_BB	0.771	-
predicted_H	0.850	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.390	-
predicted_R	0.714	-
predicted_RBI	0.570	-
predicted_SLG	0.343	-
predicted_SO	1.086	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.223	0.023
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.713	-0.137
predicted_AVG	0.222	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.833	0.062
predicted_H	0.823	-0.027
predicted_HBP	0.148	-
predicted_HR	0.069	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.390	0.000
predicted_R	0.806	0.092
predicted_RBI	0.549	-0.021
predicted_SLG	0.343	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.913	-0.173

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.85), rates preserved: AVG=0.214 HR/AB=0.018

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.850

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	4.000	4.000	0.1667	0.3478	0.2222	0.1667	0.0000	0.1667	0.2222	0.2222
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	10.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	10.000	10.000	7.000	0.2778	0.4468	0.4444	0.2778	0.0278	0.1389	0.2778	0.1944
season	0.20	35	-	133.000	33.000	7.000	6.000	16.000	25.000	27.000	38.000	0.2481	0.3855	0.4361	0.2481	0.0451	0.1203	0.2030	0.2857

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2350
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.6400
predicted_AVG	0.2219
predicted_BB	0.8660
predicted_H	0.8080
predicted_HBP	0.1480
predicted_HR	0.0680
predicted_OBP	0.3900
predicted_R	0.8550
predicted_RBI	0.5380
predicted_SLG	0.3427
predicted_SO	0.8200

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.2350	0.2228	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8500	3.6400	3.7135	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2220	0.2219	0.2219	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7710	0.8660	0.8328	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8500	0.8080	0.8227	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1480	0.1480	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0680	0.0687	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3900	0.3900	0.3900	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7140	0.8550	0.8056	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5700	0.5380	0.5492	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3430	0.3427	0.3428	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0860	0.8200	0.9131	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.248

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260508_ATL@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	660271
playerID	660271
playerName	Shohei Ohtani
pos	TWP
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	LAD
teamID	14

Freddie Freeman (518692) · BATTER · 1B · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 36

All-history rows before 20260509: 36

System season_avg: 0.2780

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2778

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.278	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.278	0.000	-0.278	0.000
predicted_3B	0.028	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_AB	4.180	2.000	2.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	4.000	-2.000	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.318	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.278	0.250	0.222	0.250
predicted_BB	0.361	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.361	0.000	0.639	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.330	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.111	1.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.111	1.000	-0.111	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.380	0.750	0.750	Hitting_OBP	0.342	0.250	0.408	0.500
predicted_R	0.389	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.389	1.000	-0.389	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.770	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.556	1.000	-0.556	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.539	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.444	1.000	0.056	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.583	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.583	0.000	-0.583	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.278	-
predicted_3B	0.028	-
predicted_AB	4.180	-
predicted_AVG	0.318	-
predicted_BB	0.361	-
predicted_H	1.330	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.380	-
predicted_R	0.389	-
predicted_RBI	0.770	-
predicted_SLG	0.539	-
predicted_SO	0.583	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.378	0.099
predicted_3B	0.014	-0.014
predicted_AB	4.063	-0.117
predicted_AVG	0.318	0.000
predicted_BB	0.381	0.020
predicted_H	1.292	-0.038
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.148	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.380	-0.000
predicted_R	0.395	0.006
predicted_RBI	0.748	-0.022
predicted_SLG	0.539	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.790	0.207

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.18), rates preserved: AVG=0.309 HR/AB=0.035

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, BvP AVG=0.250)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-2.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 4.180

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	7.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	2.000	6.000	0.3500	0.4091	0.6500	0.3500	0.0500	0.2500	0.1000	0.3000
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	12.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	4.000	4.000	7.000	0.3000	0.3636	0.4500	0.3000	0.0250	0.1250	0.1000	0.1750
season	0.20	36	-	144.000	40.000	10.000	1.000	4.000	20.000	14.000	13.000	21.000	0.2778	0.3418	0.4444	0.2778	0.0278	0.1389	0.0903	0.1458

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.4310
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	4.0000
predicted_AVG	0.3181
predicted_BB	0.3920
predicted_H	1.2720
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.1470
predicted_OBP	0.3797
predicted_R	0.3980
predicted_RBI	0.7360
predicted_SLG	0.5389
predicted_SO	0.9020

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2780	0.4310	0.3775	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0280	0.0060	0.0137	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1800	4.0000	4.0630	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3180	0.3181	0.3181	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3610	0.3920	0.3811	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.3300	1.2720	1.2923	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1470	0.1480	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3800	0.3797	0.3798	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3890	0.3980	0.3949	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7700	0.7360	0.7479	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5390	0.5389	0.5389	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5830	0.9020	0.7903	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.278

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260508_ATL@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	518692
playerID	518692
playerName	Freddie Freeman
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	LAD
teamID	14

Kyle Tucker (663656) · BATTER · RF · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 36

All-history rows before 20260509: 36

System season_avg: 0.2550

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2553

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	1.000	-0.250	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.980	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.917	3.000	0.083	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.313	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.255	0.333	-0.005	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.528	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.528	0.000	-0.528	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.240	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.382	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.340	0.333	-0.090	-0.083
predicted_R	0.722	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.722	0.000	-0.722	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.730	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.528	1.000	-0.528	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.544	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.404	0.667	-0.154	-0.417
predicted_SO	0.917	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.917	1.000	0.083	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.980	-
predicted_AVG	0.313	-
predicted_BB	0.528	-
predicted_H	1.240	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.382	-
predicted_R	0.722	-
predicted_RBI	0.730	-
predicted_SLG	0.544	-
predicted_SO	0.917	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.385	0.135
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.914	-0.066
predicted_AVG	0.313	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.485	-0.043
predicted_H	1.222	-0.018
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.147	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.382	0.000
predicted_R	0.716	-0.006
predicted_RBI	0.717	-0.013
predicted_SLG	0.544	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.833	-0.085

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.98), rates preserved: AVG=0.307 HR/AB=0.037

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, BvP AVG=0.167)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.980

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	7.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	2.000	4.000	0.3500	0.4091	0.6500	0.3500	0.0500	0.2000	0.1000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	11.000	4.000	1.000	7.000	6.000	5.000	7.000	0.2973	0.3721	0.4865	0.2973	0.0270	0.1892	0.1351	0.1892
season	0.20	36	-	141.000	36.000	9.000	4.000	19.000	26.000	19.000	33.000	0.2553	0.3395	0.4043	0.2553	0.0284	0.1348	0.1348	0.2340

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.4580
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.8780
predicted_AVG	0.3126
predicted_BB	0.4620
predicted_H	1.2120
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1460
predicted_OBP	0.3822
predicted_R	0.7120
predicted_RBI	0.7100
predicted_SLG	0.5436
predicted_SO	0.7870

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.4580	0.3852	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9800	3.8780	3.9137	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3130	0.3126	0.3127	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5280	0.4620	0.4851	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2400	1.2120	1.2218	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1460	0.1474	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3820	0.3822	0.3821	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7220	0.7120	0.7155	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7300	0.7100	0.7170	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5440	0.5436	0.5437	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9170	0.7870	0.8325	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.255

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260508_ATL@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	663656
playerID	663656
playerName	Kyle Tucker
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	LAD
teamID	14

Will Smith (669257) · BATTER · C · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 26

All-history rows before 20260509: 26

System season_avg: 0.2600

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2596

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.115	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.115	0.000	-0.115	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.160	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	4.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.217	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.260	0.000	-0.010	0.250
predicted_BB	0.346	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.346	0.000	-0.346	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.900	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.038	0.000	-0.038	1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.115	0.000	-0.115	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.281	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.316	0.000	-0.066	0.250
predicted_R	0.462	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.462	0.000	0.538	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.615	0.000	0.385	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.331	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.375	0.000	-0.125	0.250
predicted_SO	0.769	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.769	2.000	1.231	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.115	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.160	-
predicted_AVG	0.217	-
predicted_BB	0.346	-
predicted_H	0.900	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.281	-
predicted_R	0.462	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.331	-
predicted_SO	0.769	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.220	0.105
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.998	-0.163
predicted_AVG	0.217	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.352	0.007
predicted_H	0.866	-0.034
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.058	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.281	0.000
predicted_R	0.325	-0.137
predicted_RBI	0.393	-0.017
predicted_SLG	0.331	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.846	0.077

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.16), rates preserved: AVG=0.208 HR/AB=0.014

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, BvP AVG=0.556)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 26

Reference playing time: 4.160

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	0.2105	0.2857	0.3158	0.2105	0.0000	0.0526	0.1053	0.2632
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	8.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	3.000	8.000	0.2000	0.2558	0.3250	0.2000	0.0250	0.1250	0.0750	0.2000
season	0.20	26	-	104.000	27.000	3.000	3.000	16.000	12.000	9.000	20.000	0.2596	0.3158	0.3750	0.2596	0.0289	0.1538	0.0865	0.1923

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2760
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.9100
predicted_AVG	0.2166
predicted_BB	0.3560
predicted_H	0.8470
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0570
predicted_OBP	0.2813
predicted_R	0.2510
predicted_RBI	0.3840
predicted_SLG	0.3309
predicted_SO	0.8870

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1150	0.2760	0.2197	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1600	3.9100	3.9975	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2170	0.2166	0.2167	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3460	0.3560	0.3525	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9000	0.8470	0.8656	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0570	0.0580	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2810	0.2813	0.2812	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4620	0.2510	0.3249	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.3840	0.3931	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3310	0.3309	0.3309	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7690	0.8870	0.8457	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	26
Season rows before report date	26
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	26
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.26

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260508_ATL@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	669257
playerID	669257
playerName	Will Smith
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	LAD
teamID	14

Alex Freeland (690976) · BATTER · 2B · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 29

All-history rows before 20260509: 29

System season_avg: 0.2580

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2584

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.138	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.138	0.000	-0.138	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.069	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.069	4.000	0.931	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.333	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.258	0.250	-0.008	0.000
predicted_BB	0.379	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.379	1.000	-0.379	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.860	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.793	1.000	0.207	0.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.069	0.000	-0.069	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.447	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.337	0.400	-0.087	-0.150
predicted_R	0.379	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.379	1.000	-0.379	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.276	1.000	-0.276	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.512	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.371	0.250	-0.121	0.000
predicted_SO	0.931	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.931	1.000	-0.931	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.138	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.069	-
predicted_AVG	0.333	-
predicted_BB	0.379	-
predicted_H	0.860	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.447	-
predicted_R	0.379	-
predicted_RBI	0.310	-
predicted_SLG	0.512	-
predicted_SO	0.931	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	-0.027
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.952	-0.117
predicted_AVG	0.333	0.000
predicted_BB	0.534	0.155
predicted_H	0.926	0.066
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.137	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.447	-0.000
predicted_R	0.473	0.094
predicted_RBI	0.331	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.512	0.000
predicted_SO	0.651	-0.280

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.07), rates preserved: AVG=0.302 HR/AB=0.045

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	2.000	0.3571	0.5000	0.5714	0.3571	0.0714	0.1429	0.2857	0.1429
last_10	0.35	10	-	29.000	10.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	5.000	4.000	0.3448	0.4412	0.5172	0.3448	0.0345	0.1035	0.1724	0.1379
season	0.20	29	-	89.000	23.000	4.000	2.000	8.000	11.000	11.000	27.000	0.2584	0.3366	0.3708	0.2584	0.0225	0.0899	0.1236	0.3034

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0960
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.8890
predicted_AVG	0.3331
predicted_BB	0.6170
predicted_H	0.9620
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1410
predicted_OBP	0.4467
predicted_R	0.5240
predicted_RBI	0.3420
predicted_SLG	0.5123
predicted_SO	0.5000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1380	0.0960	0.1107	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0690	2.8890	2.9520	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3330	0.3331	0.3331	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3790	0.6170	0.5337	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8600	0.9620	0.9263	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1410	0.1371	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4470	0.4467	0.4468	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3790	0.5240	0.4733	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3100	0.3420	0.3308	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5120	0.5123	0.5122	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9310	0.5000	0.6508	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.258

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260506_LAD@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	690976
playerID	690976
playerName	Alex Freeland
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	LAD
teamID	14

Max Muncy (571970) · BATTER · 3B · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 35

All-history rows before 20260509: 35

System season_avg: 0.2810

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2810

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	0.000	0.857	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.457	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.457	3.000	0.543	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.193	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.281	0.000	0.219	0.500
predicted_BB	0.571	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.571	0.000	-0.571	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.630	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.971	0.000	1.029	2.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.257	0.000	-0.257	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.338	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.383	0.000	0.117	0.500
predicted_R	0.714	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.714	0.000	-0.714	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.371	0.000	-0.371	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.268	0.750	0.750	Hitting_SLG	0.545	0.000	0.205	0.750
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	2.000	0.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.457	-
predicted_AVG	0.193	-
predicted_BB	0.571	-
predicted_H	0.630	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.338	-
predicted_R	0.714	-
predicted_RBI	0.140	-
predicted_SLG	0.268	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.112	-0.031
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.265	-0.192
predicted_AVG	0.193	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.649	0.078
predicted_H	0.616	-0.014
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.048	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.338	0.000
predicted_R	0.525	-0.189
predicted_RBI	0.138	-0.002
predicted_SLG	0.268	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.019	0.019

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.46), rates preserved: AVG=0.178 HR/AB=0.014

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	6.000	0.1333	0.3158	0.1333	0.1333	0.0000	0.0000	0.2667	0.4000
last_10	0.35	10	-	32.000	7.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	6.000	8.000	0.2188	0.3421	0.2812	0.2188	0.0000	0.0625	0.1875	0.2500
season	0.20	35	-	121.000	34.000	5.000	9.000	13.000	25.000	20.000	35.000	0.2810	0.3830	0.5455	0.2810	0.0744	0.1074	0.1653	0.2893

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0950
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.1610
predicted_AVG	0.1928
predicted_BB	0.6910
predicted_H	0.6090
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0470
predicted_OBP	0.3384
predicted_R	0.4240
predicted_RBI	0.1370
predicted_SLG	0.2675
predicted_SO	1.0290

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.0950	0.1118	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4570	3.1610	3.2646	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1930	0.1928	0.1929	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5710	0.6910	0.6490	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6300	0.6090	0.6163	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0470	0.0480	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3380	0.3384	0.3383	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7140	0.4240	0.5255	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1400	0.1370	0.1381	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2680	0.2675	0.2677	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0290	1.0189	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.281

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260508_ATL@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	571970
playerID	571970
playerName	Max Muncy
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	LAD
teamID	14

Teoscar Hernández (606192) · BATTER · LF · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 34

All-history rows before 20260509: 34

System season_avg: 0.2360

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2358

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.118	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.618	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.618	2.000	0.382	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.190	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.236	0.500	0.014	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.382	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.382	0.000	-0.382	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.630	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.853	1.000	0.147	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.289	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.312	0.667	-0.062	-0.417
predicted_R	0.529	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.529	1.000	0.471	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.160	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.216	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.366	0.500	-0.116	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.206	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.206	1.000	-0.206	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.118	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.618	-
predicted_AVG	0.190	-
predicted_BB	0.382	-
predicted_H	0.630	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.289	-
predicted_R	0.529	-
predicted_RBI	0.160	-
predicted_SLG	0.216	-
predicted_SO	1.206	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.057	-0.061
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.622	0.004
predicted_AVG	0.190	0.000
predicted_BB	0.385	0.003
predicted_H	0.668	0.038
predicted_HBP	0.129	-
predicted_HR	0.023	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.289	0.000
predicted_R	0.383	-0.146
predicted_RBI	0.170	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.216	0.000
predicted_SO	1.372	0.166

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.62), rates preserved: AVG=0.185 HR/AB=0.006

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	9.000	0.1579	0.2381	0.1579	0.1579	0.0000	0.0000	0.0526	0.4737
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	7.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	6.000	12.000	0.2059	0.3415	0.2059	0.2059	0.0000	0.0588	0.1765	0.3529
season	0.20	34	-	123.000	29.000	4.000	4.000	17.000	18.000	13.000	41.000	0.2358	0.3116	0.3659	0.2358	0.0325	0.1382	0.1057	0.3333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0240
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.6240
predicted_AVG	0.1903
predicted_BB	0.3860
predicted_H	0.6890
predicted_HBP	0.1290
predicted_HR	0.0240
predicted_OBP	0.2890
predicted_R	0.3040
predicted_RBI	0.1750
predicted_SLG	0.2163
predicted_SO	1.4620

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1180	0.0240	0.0569	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6180	3.6240	3.6219	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1900	0.1903	0.1902	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3820	0.3860	0.3846	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6300	0.6890	0.6683	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1290	0.1290	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0240	0.0226	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2890	0.2890	0.2890	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5290	0.3040	0.3828	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1600	0.1750	0.1697	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2160	0.2163	0.2162	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2060	1.4620	1.3724	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.236

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	1
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260508_ATL@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	606192
playerID	606192
playerName	Teoscar Hernández
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	LAD
teamID	14

Andy Pages (681624) · BATTER · CF · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 37

All-history rows before 20260509: 37

System season_avg: 0.3310

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3309

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.216	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.216	0.000	-0.216	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.757	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.757	3.000	-0.757	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.345	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.331	0.000	0.002	0.333
predicted_BB	0.243	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.243	0.000	0.757	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_H	1.270	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.243	0.000	-0.243	1.000
predicted_HR	0.380	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.216	0.000	-0.216	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.365	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.371	0.000	0.129	0.500
predicted_R	0.595	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.595	0.000	-0.595	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.990	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.892	0.000	-0.892	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.162	0.000	-0.162	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.695	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.561	0.000	-0.228	0.333
predicted_SO	0.838	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.838	0.000	-0.838	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.216	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.757	-
predicted_AVG	0.345	-
predicted_BB	0.243	-
predicted_H	1.270	-
predicted_HR	0.380	-
predicted_OBP	0.365	-
predicted_R	0.595	-
predicted_RBI	0.990	-
predicted_SLG	0.695	-
predicted_SO	0.838	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.185	-0.031
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.919	0.162
predicted_AVG	0.345	0.000
predicted_BB	0.166	-0.077
predicted_H	1.343	0.073
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.401	0.021
predicted_OBP	0.365	0.000
predicted_R	0.733	0.138
predicted_RBI	1.048	0.058
predicted_SLG	0.695	0.000
predicted_SO	0.629	-0.209

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.92), rates preserved: AVG=0.343 HR/AB=0.102

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	8.000	1.000	3.000	7.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	0.3810	0.3810	0.8571	0.3810	0.1429	0.3333	0.0000	0.0476
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	12.000	1.000	3.000	8.000	7.000	2.000	7.000	0.3077	0.3415	0.5641	0.3077	0.0769	0.2051	0.0513	0.1795
season	0.20	37	-	139.000	46.000	8.000	8.000	33.000	22.000	9.000	31.000	0.3309	0.3709	0.5612	0.3309	0.0575	0.2374	0.0648	0.2230

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1680
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.0060
predicted_AVG	0.3453
predicted_BB	0.1240
predicted_H	1.3830
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.4120
predicted_OBP	0.3652
predicted_R	0.8080
predicted_RBI	1.0790
predicted_SLG	0.6954
predicted_SO	0.5160

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2160	0.1680	0.1848	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7570	4.0060	3.9189	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3450	0.3453	0.3452	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2430	0.1240	0.1656	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2700	1.3830	1.3435	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3800	0.4120	0.4008	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3650	0.3652	0.3651	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5950	0.8080	0.7334	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.9900	1.0790	1.0478	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6950	0.6954	0.6953	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8380	0.5160	0.6287	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.331

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260508_ATL@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	681624
playerID	681624
playerName	Andy Pages
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	LAD
teamID	14

Blake Snell (605483) · PITCHER · Starter · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 0

All-history rows before 20260509: 0

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	-	-	-	-
predicted_IP	3.200	3.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	-	-	-	-
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	-	Pitching_SO	-	-	-	-

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 0

Reference playing time: 3.667

Window	Weight	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
last_10	0.35	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
season	0.20	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.0000
predicted_ER	0.0000
predicted_H	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	3.2000
predicted_SO	0.0000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.0000	0.3500	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.0000	0.3500	model_form_blend
predicted_H	3.0000	0.0000	1.0500	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	3.2000	3.2000	3.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	0.0000	1.7500	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	0
Season rows before report date	0
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	0
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	3.2
H	3
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	5
HR	0
BF	19
Pitches	84

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

No historical data found for this player before report date.

Alex Vesia (681911) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 16

All-history rows before 20260509: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.725	0.100	0.475	1.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	0.000	-1.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.200	0.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	0.0000	0.5455	0.0000	0.0000	0.5454	1.3636
last_10	0.35	10	7.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	11.000	2.5714	0.7143	0.2857	0.2857	0.4286	1.5714
season	0.20	16	13.000	2.000	4.000	6.000	16.000	1.3846	0.7692	0.1538	0.3077	0.4615	1.2308

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3250
predicted_ER	0.0870
predicted_ERA	1.1769
predicted_H	0.1080
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.9400
predicted_WHIP	0.6493

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3250	0.2113	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.0870	0.0565	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.1769	1.1769	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.1080	0.0702	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	0.2000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.9400	0.6110	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.6493	0.6493	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	8

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	1
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.38
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	5
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	3
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_ATL@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	681911
playerID	681911
playerName	Alex Vesia
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAD
teamID	14

Tanner Scott (656945) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 18

All-history rows before 20260509: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.856	1.000	0.344	0.200
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.889	1.000	2.111	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	0.000	0.0000	0.4000	0.0000	0.2000	0.2000	1.4000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	2.000	4.000	2.000	8.000	1.000	1.8621	0.6207	0.2069	0.4138	0.2069	0.8276	0.1035
season	0.20	18	16.100	3.000	8.000	2.000	16.000	2.000	1.6531	0.6122	0.1837	0.4898	0.1225	0.9796	0.1225

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1870
predicted_ER	0.1090
predicted_ERA	0.9824
predicted_H	0.3330
predicted_HR	0.0610
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1160
predicted_WHIP	0.5197

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1870	0.1216	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1090	0.0708	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.9824	0.9824	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.3330	0.2165	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0610	0.0396	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.0000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	1.1160	1.7754	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.5197	0.5197	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	3
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.65
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_ATL@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	656945
playerID	656945
playerName	Tanner Scott
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAD
teamID	14

Will Klein (694361) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 11

All-history rows before 20260509: 11

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.455	0.000	0.545	1.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.318	1.000	-0.118	0.200
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.455	1.000	0.545	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	7.000	2.000	7.000	3.000	7.000	2.5714	1.4286	0.2857	1.0000	0.4286	1.0000
last_10	0.35	10	14.200	5.000	16.000	6.000	15.000	3.0682	1.5000	0.3409	1.0909	0.4091	1.0227
season	0.20	11	15.200	5.000	16.000	6.000	16.000	2.8723	1.4043	0.3191	1.0213	0.3830	1.0213

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5500
predicted_ER	0.4160
predicted_ERA	2.8055
predicted_H	1.3810
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.3500
predicted_WHIP	1.4487

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.5500	0.7075	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.4160	0.6204	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.8055	2.8055	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	1.3810	1.5977	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.3500	1.5775	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4487	1.4487	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	2
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	26

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.87
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	23
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_ATL@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	694361
playerID	694361
playerName	Will Klein
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAD
teamID	14

Blake Treinen (595014) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 14

All-history rows before 20260509: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.357	1.000	-0.357	-1.000
predicted_IP	0.100	0.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.686	1.000	-0.586	-0.900
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.857	0.000	0.143	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 0.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	2.000	6.000	0.000	6.000	1.000	4.1538	1.3846	0.4615	1.3846	0.0000	1.3846	0.2308
last_10	0.35	10	8.000	2.000	7.000	2.000	10.000	1.000	2.2500	1.1250	0.2500	0.8750	0.2500	1.2500	0.1250
season	0.20	13	11.000	2.000	9.000	3.000	12.000	1.000	1.6364	1.0909	0.1818	0.8182	0.2727	1.0909	0.0909

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1250
predicted_ER	0.2930
predicted_ERA	2.9840
predicted_H	0.9650
predicted_HR	0.1460
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1300
predicted_WHIP	1.2350

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1250	0.0813	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2930	0.1905	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.9840	2.9840	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9650	0.6272	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1460	0.0949	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	1.0000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1300	1.0845	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2350	1.2350	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	4.09
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_LAD@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	595014
playerID	595014
playerName	Blake Treinen
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAD
teamID	14

20260509_CHC@TEX

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 8, "home_runs": 2, "confidence": 0.7862426597582038, "home_win_probability": 0.21375734024179616, "away_win_probability": 0.7862426597582038, "predicted_score_text": "CHC 8 - 2 TEX", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to final winner probability with starter-quality caps.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 2, "predicted_score_text": "CHC 7 - 2 TEX", "confidence": 0.7862426597582038, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score", "final_prediction_synced": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 2, "score_text": "CHC 7 - 2 TEX", "winner": "CHC"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 8, "home_runs": 2, "score_text": "CHC 8 - 2 TEX", "winner": "CHC"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 1, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 1, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"}}

Away Team: CHC

Alex Bregman (608324) · BATTER · 3B · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 38

All-history rows before 20260509: 38

System season_avg: 0.2290

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2288

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.132	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.132	0.000	-0.132	0.000
predicted_3B	0.026	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_AB	4.180	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.026	5.000	-0.026	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.196	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.229	0.200	0.021	0.050
predicted_BB	0.579	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.579	0.000	0.421	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.820	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.921	1.000	0.079	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.079	0.000	-0.079	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.329	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.328	0.200	0.072	0.200
predicted_R	0.395	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.395	1.000	0.605	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.316	0.000	-0.316	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.259	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.333	0.200	-0.083	0.050
predicted_SO	0.763	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.763	3.000	1.237	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.132	-
predicted_3B	0.026	-
predicted_AB	4.180	-
predicted_AVG	0.196	-
predicted_BB	0.579	-
predicted_H	0.820	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.329	-
predicted_R	0.395	-
predicted_RBI	0.240	-
predicted_SLG	0.259	-
predicted_SO	0.763	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.168	0.036
predicted_3B	0.012	-0.014
predicted_AB	3.962	-0.218
predicted_AVG	0.196	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.695	0.116
predicted_H	0.776	-0.044
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.017	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.329	-0.000
predicted_R	0.586	0.191
predicted_RBI	0.228	-0.012
predicted_SLG	0.259	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.865	0.102

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.18), rates preserved: AVG=0.186 HR/AB=0.004

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 4.180

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	5.000	0.2105	0.3478	0.2632	0.2105	0.0000	0.0526	0.2105	0.2632
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	7.000	8.000	9.000	0.1579	0.3043	0.2105	0.1579	0.0000	0.0526	0.2105	0.2368
season	0.20	38	-	153.000	35.000	5.000	1.000	3.000	12.000	15.000	22.000	29.000	0.2288	0.3277	0.3333	0.2288	0.0196	0.0784	0.1438	0.1895

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1870
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.8450
predicted_AVG	0.1958
predicted_BB	0.7580
predicted_H	0.7530
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0150
predicted_OBP	0.3286
predicted_R	0.6880
predicted_RBI	0.2220
predicted_SLG	0.2588
predicted_SO	0.9200

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1320	0.1870	0.1678	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0260	0.0050	0.0123	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1800	3.8450	3.9623	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1960	0.1958	0.1959	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5790	0.7580	0.6954	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8200	0.7530	0.7764	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0150	0.0168	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3290	0.3286	0.3287	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3950	0.6880	0.5855	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2400	0.2220	0.2283	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2590	0.2588	0.2589	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7630	0.9200	0.8651	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.229

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260508_CHC@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	608324
playerID	608324
playerName	Alex Bregman
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	CHC
teamID	5

Michael Conforto (624424) · BATTER · DH · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 11

All-history rows before 20260509: 11

System season_avg: 0.3790

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3793

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.364	1.000	-0.364	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.900	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.636	4.000	0.364	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.406	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.379	0.500	-0.046	-0.167
predicted_BB	0.800	2.000	2.000	Hitting_BB	0.818	1.000	1.182	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.120	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	2.000	0.000	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.530	0.600	0.600	Hitting_OBP	0.513	0.600	0.087	0.000
predicted_R	0.800	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.727	1.000	0.273	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.545	0.000	-0.545	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.707	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.621	0.750	-0.287	-0.417
predicted_SO	0.700	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.636	1.000	0.364	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.400	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.900	-
predicted_AVG	0.406	-
predicted_BB	0.800	-
predicted_H	1.120	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.530	-
predicted_R	0.800	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.707	-
predicted_SO	0.700	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.456	0.056
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.988	0.088
predicted_AVG	0.406	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.801	0.001
predicted_H	1.192	0.072
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.138	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.530	-0.000
predicted_R	0.912	0.112
predicted_RBI	0.445	0.025
predicted_SLG	0.707	0.000
predicted_SO	0.618	-0.082

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.99), rates preserved: AVG=0.399 HR/AB=0.046

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	2.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 10

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	7.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	4.000	2.000	0.4375	0.5500	0.8125	0.4375	0.0625	0.1250	0.2500	0.1250
last_10	0.35	10	-	29.000	11.000	4.000	1.000	5.000	8.000	8.000	7.000	0.3793	0.5135	0.6207	0.3793	0.0345	0.1724	0.2759	0.2414
season	0.20	10	-	29.000	11.000	4.000	1.000	5.000	8.000	8.000	7.000	0.3793	0.5135	0.6207	0.3793	0.0345	0.1724	0.2759	0.2414

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.4860
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.0350
predicted_AVG	0.4055
predicted_BB	0.8020
predicted_H	1.2310
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1430
predicted_OBP	0.5299
predicted_R	0.9730
predicted_RBI	0.4590
predicted_SLG	0.7070
predicted_SO	0.5740

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.4000	0.4860	0.4559	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.9000	3.0350	2.9878	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.4060	0.4055	0.4057	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.8000	0.8020	0.8013	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1200	1.2310	1.1922	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1430	0.1384	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.5300	0.5299	0.5299	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8000	0.9730	0.9124	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.4590	0.4454	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.7070	0.7070	0.7070	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7000	0.5740	0.6181	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	10
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.379

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260508_CHC@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	624424
playerID	624424
playerName	Michael Conforto
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	CHC
teamID	5

Seiya Suzuki (673548) · BATTER · RF · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 23

All-history rows before 20260509: 23

System season_avg: 0.3100

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3103

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.130	0.000	-0.130	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.783	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.783	3.000	-0.783	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.299	1.000	1.000	Hitting_AVG	0.310	0.333	0.690	0.667
predicted_BB	0.652	2.000	2.000	Hitting_BB	0.652	2.000	1.348	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.100	3.000	3.000	Hitting_H	1.174	1.000	1.826	2.000
predicted_HR	0.340	3.000	3.000	Hitting_HR	0.304	1.000	2.696	2.000
predicted_OBP	0.422	1.000	1.000	Hitting_OBP	0.419	0.600	0.581	0.400
predicted_R	0.826	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.826	2.000	0.174	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.940	4.000	4.000	Hitting_RBI	0.696	2.000	3.304	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.647	4.000	4.000	Hitting_SLG	0.586	1.333	3.414	2.667
predicted_SO	0.957	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.957	0.000	-0.957	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.130	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.783	-
predicted_AVG	0.299	-
predicted_BB	0.652	-
predicted_H	1.100	-
predicted_HR	0.340	-
predicted_OBP	0.422	-
predicted_R	0.826	-
predicted_RBI	0.940	-
predicted_SLG	0.647	-
predicted_SO	0.957	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.224	0.094
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.769	-0.014
predicted_AVG	0.299	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.764	0.112
predicted_H	1.116	0.016
predicted_HBP	0.017	-
predicted_HR	0.343	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.422	0.000
predicted_R	0.870	0.044
predicted_RBI	0.952	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.647	0.000
predicted_SO	0.921	-0.036

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.78), rates preserved: AVG=0.295 HR/AB=0.091

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	2.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	3.000	3.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	4.000	3.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 23

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	6.000	2.000	2.000	6.000	5.000	5.000	4.000	0.3158	0.4583	0.7368	0.3158	0.1053	0.3158	0.2632	0.2105
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	10.000	2.000	3.000	8.000	8.000	7.000	10.000	0.2703	0.3778	0.5676	0.2703	0.0811	0.2162	0.1892	0.2703
season	0.20	23	-	87.000	27.000	3.000	7.000	16.000	19.000	15.000	22.000	0.3103	0.4190	0.5862	0.3103	0.0805	0.1839	0.1724	0.2529

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2750
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7620
predicted_AVG	0.2988
predicted_BB	0.8240
predicted_H	1.1240
predicted_HBP	0.0170
predicted_HR	0.3450
predicted_OBP	0.4223
predicted_R	0.8940
predicted_RBI	0.9580
predicted_SLG	0.6475
predicted_SO	0.9020

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1300	0.2750	0.2243	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7830	3.7620	3.7694	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2990	0.2988	0.2989	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6520	0.8240	0.7638	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1000	1.1240	1.1156	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0170	0.0170	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3400	0.3450	0.3432	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4220	0.4223	0.4222	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8260	0.8940	0.8702	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.9400	0.9580	0.9517	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6470	0.6475	0.6473	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9570	0.9020	0.9213	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	23
Season rows before report date	23
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	23
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	3
H	3
2B	0
3B	0
HR	3
R	1
RBI	4
BB	2
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.31

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260508_CHC@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	673548
playerID	673548
playerName	Seiya Suzuki
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	CHC
teamID	5

Nico Hoerner (663538) · BATTER · 2B · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 37

All-history rows before 20260509: 37

System season_avg: 0.2750

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2745

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.270	0.000	-0.270	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.570	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	4.135	5.000	0.865	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.184	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.275	0.000	-0.275	0.000
predicted_BB	0.432	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.432	0.000	-0.432	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.840	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.135	0.000	-1.135	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.108	0.000	-0.108	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.277	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.352	0.000	-0.352	0.000
predicted_R	0.514	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.514	0.000	-0.514	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.550	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.757	0.000	-0.757	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.189	0.000	-0.189	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.259	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.418	0.000	-0.418	0.000
predicted_SO	0.378	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.378	0.000	0.622	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.270	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.570	-
predicted_AVG	0.184	-
predicted_BB	0.432	-
predicted_H	0.840	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.277	-
predicted_R	0.514	-
predicted_RBI	0.550	-
predicted_SLG	0.259	-
predicted_SO	0.378	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.256	-0.014
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.344	-0.226
predicted_AVG	0.184	0.000
predicted_BB	0.497	0.065
predicted_H	0.800	-0.040
predicted_HBP	0.056	-
predicted_HR	0.021	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.277	-0.000
predicted_R	0.433	-0.081
predicted_RBI	0.522	-0.028
predicted_SLG	0.259	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.227	-0.151

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 5 (raw=4.57), rates preserved: AVG=0.175 HR/AB=0.005

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	5.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 4.570

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	0.000	0.1429	0.2400	0.1905	0.1429	0.0000	0.0952	0.1429	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	-	43.000	8.000	3.000	0.000	5.000	3.000	5.000	2.000	0.1860	0.2800	0.2558	0.1860	0.0000	0.1163	0.1163	0.0465
season	0.20	37	-	153.000	42.000	10.000	4.000	28.000	19.000	16.000	14.000	0.2745	0.3523	0.4183	0.2745	0.0261	0.1830	0.1046	0.0915

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2490
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.2220
predicted_AVG	0.1843
predicted_BB	0.5320
predicted_H	0.7780
predicted_HBP	0.0560
predicted_HR	0.0220
predicted_OBP	0.2765
predicted_R	0.3890
predicted_RBI	0.5070
predicted_SLG	0.2589
predicted_SO	0.1460

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2700	0.2490	0.2563	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.5700	4.2220	4.3438	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1840	0.1843	0.1842	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4320	0.5320	0.4970	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8400	0.7780	0.7997	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0560	0.0560	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0220	0.0213	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2770	0.2765	0.2767	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5140	0.3890	0.4328	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5500	0.5070	0.5221	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2590	0.2589	0.2589	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3780	0.1460	0.2272	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.275

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260508_CHC@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	663538
playerID	663538
playerName	Nico Hoerner
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	CHC
teamID	5

Michael Busch (683737) · BATTER · 1B · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 37

All-history rows before 20260509: 37

System season_avg: 0.2290

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2286

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.216	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.216	1.000	-0.216	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.027	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_AB	3.784	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.784	3.000	-0.784	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.321	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.229	0.333	-0.229	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.622	2.000	2.000	Hitting_BB	0.622	2.000	1.378	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.865	1.000	-0.865	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.081	0.000	-0.081	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.478	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.341	0.600	0.059	-0.200
predicted_R	0.459	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.459	1.000	0.541	0.000
predicted_RBI	1.130	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.595	3.000	0.405	-2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.027	1.000	-0.027	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.550	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.364	0.667	-0.364	-0.667
predicted_SO	0.973	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.973	0.000	1.027	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.216	-
predicted_3B	0.027	-
predicted_AB	3.784	-
predicted_AVG	0.321	-
predicted_BB	0.622	-
predicted_H	1.150	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.478	-
predicted_R	0.459	-
predicted_RBI	1.130	-
predicted_SLG	0.550	-
predicted_SO	0.973	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.255	0.039
predicted_3B	0.036	0.009
predicted_AB	3.562	-0.222
predicted_AVG	0.321	0.000
predicted_BB	0.907	0.285
predicted_H	1.121	-0.029
predicted_HBP	0.046	-
predicted_HR	0.145	-0.005
predicted_OBP	0.478	0.000
predicted_R	0.428	-0.031
predicted_RBI	1.106	-0.024
predicted_SLG	0.550	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.823	-0.150

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.78), rates preserved: AVG=0.296 HR/AB=0.038

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	2.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	2.000	6.000	3.000	0.3529	0.5217	0.5882	0.3529	0.0588	0.3529	0.3529	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	11.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	12.000	4.000	11.000	8.000	0.3333	0.5000	0.6061	0.3333	0.0303	0.3636	0.3333	0.2424
season	0.20	37	-	140.000	32.000	8.000	1.000	3.000	22.000	17.000	23.000	36.000	0.2286	0.3413	0.3643	0.2286	0.0214	0.1571	0.1643	0.2571

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2760
predicted_3B	0.0410
predicted_AB	3.4420
predicted_AVG	0.3212
predicted_BB	1.0610
predicted_H	1.1060
predicted_HBP	0.0460
predicted_HR	0.1420
predicted_OBP	0.4780
predicted_R	0.4120
predicted_RBI	1.0930
predicted_SLG	0.5497
predicted_SO	0.7420

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2160	0.2760	0.2550	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0270	0.0410	0.0361	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7840	3.4420	3.5617	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3210	0.3212	0.3211	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6220	1.0610	0.9073	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1500	1.1060	1.1214	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0460	0.0460	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1420	0.1448	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4780	0.4780	0.4780	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4590	0.4120	0.4284	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	1.1300	1.0930	1.1059	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5500	0.5497	0.5498	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9730	0.7420	0.8228	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	2
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.229

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260508_CHC@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	683737
playerID	683737
playerName	Michael Busch
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	CHC
teamID	5

Ian Happ (664023) · BATTER · LF · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 37

All-history rows before 20260509: 37

System season_avg: 0.2430

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2429

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.162	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.162	0.000	-0.162	0.000
predicted_3B	0.027	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_AB	3.830	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.784	4.000	1.216	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.236	0.200	0.200	Hitting_AVG	0.243	0.250	-0.043	-0.050
predicted_BB	0.757	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.757	1.000	-0.757	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.900	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.919	1.000	0.081	0.000
predicted_HR	0.220	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.243	0.000	0.757	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.392	0.200	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.376	0.400	-0.176	-0.200
predicted_R	0.838	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.838	2.000	0.162	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.530	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	0.486	1.000	1.514	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.054	0.000	-0.054	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.460	0.800	0.800	Hitting_SLG	0.493	0.250	0.307	0.550
predicted_SO	1.324	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.324	0.000	-0.324	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.162	-
predicted_3B	0.027	-
predicted_AB	3.830	-
predicted_AVG	0.236	-
predicted_BB	0.757	-
predicted_H	0.900	-
predicted_HR	0.220	-
predicted_OBP	0.392	-
predicted_R	0.838	-
predicted_RBI	0.530	-
predicted_SLG	0.460	-
predicted_SO	1.324	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.126	-0.036
predicted_3B	0.037	0.010
predicted_AB	3.718	-0.112
predicted_AVG	0.236	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.855	0.098
predicted_H	0.876	-0.024
predicted_HBP	0.048	-
predicted_HR	0.213	-0.007
predicted_OBP	0.392	-0.000
predicted_R	1.030	0.192
predicted_RBI	0.513	-0.017
predicted_SLG	0.460	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.374	0.050

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.83), rates preserved: AVG=0.229 HR/AB=0.056

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.830

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	4.000	8.000	0.2105	0.3478	0.3684	0.2105	0.0526	0.1579	0.2105	0.4210
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	9.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	12.000	11.000	12.000	0.2647	0.4565	0.5588	0.2647	0.0588	0.1177	0.3235	0.3529
season	0.20	37	-	140.000	34.000	6.000	1.000	9.000	18.000	31.000	28.000	49.000	0.2429	0.3765	0.4929	0.2429	0.0643	0.1286	0.2000	0.3500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1070
predicted_3B	0.0430
predicted_AB	3.6570
predicted_AVG	0.2359
predicted_BB	0.9070
predicted_H	0.8630
predicted_HBP	0.0480
predicted_HR	0.2090
predicted_OBP	0.3916
predicted_R	1.1330
predicted_RBI	0.5040
predicted_SLG	0.4599
predicted_SO	1.4010

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1620	0.1070	0.1263	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0270	0.0430	0.0374	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8300	3.6570	3.7176	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2360	0.2359	0.2359	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7570	0.9070	0.8545	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9000	0.8630	0.8760	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0480	0.0480	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2200	0.2090	0.2128	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3920	0.3916	0.3917	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8380	1.1330	1.0297	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5300	0.5040	0.5131	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4600	0.4599	0.4599	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3240	1.4010	1.3740	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.243

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260508_CHC@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	664023
playerID	664023
playerName	Ian Happ
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	CHC
teamID	5

Dansby Swanson (621020) · BATTER · SS · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 37

All-history rows before 20260509: 37

System season_avg: 0.1970

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1969

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.027	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_3B	0.027	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_AB	3.432	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.432	4.000	0.568	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.173	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.197	0.250	0.053	0.000
predicted_BB	0.595	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.595	0.000	-0.595	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.676	1.000	0.324	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.162	0.000	-0.162	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.236	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.314	0.250	-0.064	0.000
predicted_R	0.703	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.703	0.000	0.297	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.230	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.622	0.000	0.378	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.054	1.000	-0.054	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.206	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.362	0.250	-0.112	0.000
predicted_SO	0.838	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.838	0.000	-0.838	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.027	-
predicted_3B	0.027	-
predicted_AB	3.432	-
predicted_AVG	0.173	-
predicted_BB	0.595	-
predicted_H	0.500	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.236	-
predicted_R	0.703	-
predicted_RBI	0.230	-
predicted_SLG	0.206	-
predicted_SO	0.838	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.013	-0.014
predicted_3B	0.013	-0.014
predicted_AB	3.659	0.227
predicted_AVG	0.173	0.000
predicted_BB	0.418	-0.177
predicted_H	0.601	0.101
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.034	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.236	0.000
predicted_R	0.550	-0.153
predicted_RBI	0.272	0.042
predicted_SLG	0.206	0.000
predicted_SO	0.640	-0.198

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.66), rates preserved: AVG=0.164 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	0.1500	0.1905	0.1500	0.1500	0.0000	0.0500	0.0500	0.1000
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	7.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	5.000	0.1892	0.2500	0.1892	0.1892	0.0000	0.0541	0.0811	0.1351
season	0.20	37	-	127.000	25.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	23.000	26.000	22.000	31.000	0.1969	0.3137	0.3622	0.1968	0.0472	0.1811	0.1732	0.2441

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0060
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.7810
predicted_AVG	0.1731
predicted_BB	0.3230
predicted_H	0.6550
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0360
predicted_OBP	0.2360
predicted_R	0.4680
predicted_RBI	0.2940
predicted_SLG	0.2062
predicted_SO	0.5340

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0270	0.0060	0.0134	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0270	0.0060	0.0134	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4320	3.7810	3.6589	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1730	0.1731	0.1731	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5950	0.3230	0.4182	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5000	0.6550	0.6008	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0360	0.0339	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2360	0.2360	0.2360	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7030	0.4680	0.5503	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2300	0.2940	0.2716	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2060	0.2062	0.2061	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8380	0.5340	0.6404	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.197

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260508_CHC@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	621020
playerID	621020
playerName	Dansby Swanson
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	CHC
teamID	5

Pete Crow-Armstrong (691718) · BATTER · CF · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 38

All-history rows before 20260509: 38

System season_avg: 0.2590

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2587

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.132	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.132	1.000	-0.132	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.053	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_AB	3.763	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.763	4.000	1.237	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.331	0.200	0.200	Hitting_AVG	0.259	0.500	-0.059	-0.300
predicted_BB	0.289	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.289	0.000	-0.289	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.079	0.000	-0.079	0.000
predicted_H	1.090	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.974	2.000	0.026	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.105	0.000	-0.105	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.396	0.200	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.325	0.500	-0.125	-0.300
predicted_R	0.632	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.632	0.000	0.368	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.720	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.447	1.000	-0.447	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.237	1.000	-0.237	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.633	0.200	0.200	Hitting_SLG	0.406	0.750	-0.206	-0.550
predicted_SO	1.053	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.053	1.000	-0.053	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.132	-
predicted_3B	0.053	-
predicted_AB	3.763	-
predicted_AVG	0.331	-
predicted_BB	0.289	-
predicted_H	1.090	-
predicted_HR	0.190	-
predicted_OBP	0.396	-
predicted_R	0.632	-
predicted_RBI	0.720	-
predicted_SLG	0.633	-
predicted_SO	1.053	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.168	0.036
predicted_3B	0.108	0.055
predicted_AB	3.701	-0.062
predicted_AVG	0.331	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.265	-0.024
predicted_H	1.170	0.080
predicted_HBP	0.142	-
predicted_HR	0.207	0.017
predicted_OBP	0.396	-0.000
predicted_R	0.720	0.088
predicted_RBI	0.773	0.053
predicted_SLG	0.633	0.000
predicted_SO	0.839	-0.214

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.76), rates preserved: AVG=0.311 HR/AB=0.055

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	1.000	3.000	0.3889	0.4500	0.7222	0.3889	0.0556	0.2222	0.0556	0.1667
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	11.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	10.000	8.000	3.000	7.000	0.2973	0.3659	0.6486	0.2973	0.0811	0.2703	0.0811	0.1892
season	0.20	38	-	143.000	37.000	5.000	2.000	4.000	17.000	24.000	11.000	40.000	0.2587	0.3248	0.4056	0.2587	0.0280	0.1189	0.0769	0.2797

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1870
predicted_3B	0.1370
predicted_AB	3.6680
predicted_AVG	0.3308
predicted_BB	0.2520
predicted_H	1.2130
predicted_HBP	0.1420
predicted_HR	0.2160
predicted_OBP	0.3955
predicted_R	0.7670
predicted_RBI	0.8010
predicted_SLG	0.6331
predicted_SO	0.7230

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1320	0.1870	0.1678	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0530	0.1370	0.1076	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7630	3.6680	3.7012	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3310	0.3308	0.3309	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2890	0.2520	0.2650	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0900	1.2130	1.1700	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1420	0.1420	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1900	0.2160	0.2069	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3960	0.3955	0.3957	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6320	0.7670	0.7198	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7200	0.8010	0.7727	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6330	0.6331	0.6331	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0530	0.7230	0.8385	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.259

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260508_CHC@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	691718
playerID	691718
playerName	Pete Crow-Armstrong
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	CHC
teamID	5

Carson Kelly (608348) · BATTER · C · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 24

All-history rows before 20260509: 24

System season_avg: 0.2860

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2857

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.792	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.792	4.000	0.208	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.272	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.286	0.000	-0.036	0.250
predicted_BB	0.458	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.458	0.000	0.542	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.950	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.083	0.000	-0.083	1.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.042	0.000	-0.042	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.328	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.369	0.000	0.031	0.400
predicted_R	0.542	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.542	0.000	0.458	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.296	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.363	0.000	-0.113	0.250
predicted_SO	0.750	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.750	1.000	1.250	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.792	-
predicted_AVG	0.272	-
predicted_BB	0.458	-
predicted_H	0.950	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.328	-
predicted_R	0.542	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.296	-
predicted_SO	0.750	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.103	-0.064
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.841	0.049
predicted_AVG	0.272	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.347	-0.111
predicted_H	1.016	0.066
predicted_HBP	0.042	-
predicted_HR	0.009	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.328	0.000
predicted_R	0.491	-0.051
predicted_RBI	0.438	0.028
predicted_SLG	0.296	0.000
predicted_SO	0.695	-0.055

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.84), rates preserved: AVG=0.264 HR/AB=0.002

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 24

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	0.2632	0.3000	0.2632	0.2632	0.0000	0.1579	0.0526	0.1579
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	11.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	5.000	3.000	7.000	0.2750	0.3409	0.3000	0.2750	0.0000	0.0750	0.0750	0.1750
season	0.20	24	-	91.000	26.000	4.000	1.000	9.000	13.000	11.000	18.000	0.2857	0.3689	0.3626	0.2857	0.0110	0.0989	0.1209	0.1978

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0680
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.8680
predicted_AVG	0.2718
predicted_BB	0.2870
predicted_H	1.0510
predicted_HBP	0.0420
predicted_HR	0.0090
predicted_OBP	0.3281
predicted_R	0.4630
predicted_RBI	0.4530
predicted_SLG	0.2960
predicted_SO	0.6650

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.0680	0.1027	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7920	3.8680	3.8414	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2720	0.2718	0.2719	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4580	0.2870	0.3468	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9500	1.0510	1.0156	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0420	0.0420	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0090	0.0094	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3280	0.3281	0.3281	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5420	0.4630	0.4907	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.4530	0.4380	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2960	0.2960	0.2960	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7500	0.6650	0.6947	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	24
Season rows before report date	24
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	24
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.286

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260508_CHC@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	608348
playerID	608348
playerName	Carson Kelly
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	CHC
teamID	5

Edward Cabrera (665795) · PITCHER · Starter · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 7

All-history rows before 20260509: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	2.143	3.000	-1.143	-2.000
predicted_IP	2.200	2.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.771	6.000	-3.571	-3.800
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	-	Pitching_SO	5.286	8.000	-0.286	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 2.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	29.200	15.000	37.000	8.000	28.000	5.000	4.5506	1.5169	0.5056	1.2472	0.2697	0.9438	0.1685
last_10	0.35	7	41.100	15.000	39.000	14.000	37.000	5.000	3.2661	1.2823	0.3629	0.9435	0.3387	0.8952	0.1210
season	0.20	7	41.100	15.000	39.000	14.000	37.000	5.000	3.2661	1.2823	0.3629	0.9435	0.3387	0.8952	0.1210

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.8460
predicted_ER	2.5630
predicted_ERA	3.8441
predicted_H	6.4810
predicted_HR	0.8540
predicted_IP	6.0000
predicted_SO	5.5020
predicted_WHIP	1.3879

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	5.0000	1.8460	2.9499	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	2.5630	2.0160	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.8441	3.8441	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	6.4810	4.9127	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.8540	0.5551	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	2.2000	6.0000	5.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	5.5020	5.3263	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3879	1.3879	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.2
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	5
SO	5
HR	0
BF	19
Pitches	90

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	1
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	27
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	3.27
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	5
Pitching_H	9
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	89
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	8
Pitching_Strikes	60
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	665795
playerID	665795
playerName	Edward Cabrera
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	CHC
teamID	5

Daniel Palencia (694037) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 7

All-history rows before 20260509: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_IP	2.100	2.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.871	0.100	1.229	2.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.857	1.000	1.143	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 2.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	WHIP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	1.000	2.000	4.000	0.6923	0.2308	0.4615	0.9231
last_10	0.35	7	6.100	4.000	2.000	6.000	0.9474	0.6316	0.3158	0.9474
season	0.20	7	6.100	4.000	2.000	6.000	0.9474	0.6316	0.3158	0.9474

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3810
predicted_ER	0.0000
predicted_ERA	0.0000
predicted_H	0.4510
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9360
predicted_WHIP	0.8326

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3810	0.5977	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.4510	0.2932	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	2.1000	1.0000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.9360	1.3084	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.8326	0.8326	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	2
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	1
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.00
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	3
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	7
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	4
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	694037
playerID	694037
playerName	Daniel Palencia
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHC
teamID	5

Jacob Webb (657097) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 16

All-history rows before 20260509: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.812	1.200	0.288	-0.100
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.062	1.000	0.938	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	1.000	1.5000	0.6667	0.1667	0.3333	0.3333	1.1667	0.1667
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	3.000	10.000	2.000	11.000	1.000	2.7931	1.2414	0.3103	1.0345	0.2069	1.1379	0.1035
season	0.20	16	15.100	6.000	16.000	7.000	17.000	3.000	3.5217	1.5000	0.3913	1.0435	0.4565	1.1087	0.1956

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3610
predicted_ER	0.3010
predicted_ERA	2.3569
predicted_H	0.8290
predicted_HR	0.1730
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.3170
predicted_WHIP	1.0345

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3610	0.2346	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3010	0.1956	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.3569	2.3569	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8290	0.5388	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1730	0.1124	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.0000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.3170	1.5560	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0345	1.0345	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.52
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	4
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.2
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	657097
playerID	657097
playerName	Jacob Webb
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHC
teamID	5

Ben Brown (676962) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 13

All-history rows before 20260509: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.462	0.000	-0.462	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	2.192	4.000	-1.192	-3.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	2.077	3.000	-1.077	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	10.200	1.000	3.000	3.000	7.000	0.000	0.8438	0.5625	0.0938	0.2812	0.2812	0.6562	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	21.000	2.000	12.000	5.000	19.000	0.000	0.8571	0.8095	0.0952	0.5714	0.2381	0.9048	0.0000
season	0.20	13	29.200	6.000	18.000	9.000	27.000	1.000	1.8202	0.9101	0.2023	0.6067	0.3034	0.9101	0.0337

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5590
predicted_ER	0.2400
predicted_ERA	1.0437
predicted_H	0.9260
predicted_HR	0.0140
predicted_IP	2.0000
predicted_SO	1.6410
predicted_WHIP	0.7185

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5590	0.3634	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2400	0.1560	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.0437	1.0437	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9260	0.6019	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0140	0.0091	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	2.0000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.6410	1.4167	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.7185	0.7185	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	13
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.82
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	6
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	4.0
Pitching_Pitches	46
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	31
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_CHC@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	676962
playerID	676962
playerName	Ben Brown
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	CHC
teamID	5

Hoby Milner (571948) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 19

All-history rows before 20260509: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.263	1.000	-0.263	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.795	1.000	0.205	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.316	1.000	0.684	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	1.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	0.000	2.0769	0.9231	0.2308	0.4615	0.4615	0.6923	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	3.000	5.000	6.000	5.000	1.000	2.8929	1.1786	0.3214	0.5357	0.6429	0.5357	0.1071
season	0.20	18	17.200	5.000	12.000	6.000	6.000	2.000	2.5472	1.0189	0.2830	0.6793	0.3396	0.3396	0.1132

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5010
predicted_ER	0.2730
predicted_ERA	2.4566
predicted_H	0.5310
predicted_HR	0.0600
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.5670
predicted_WHIP	1.0317

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5010	0.3256	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2730	0.1775	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.4566	2.4566	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.5310	0.6951	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0600	0.0390	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.5670	0.7186	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0317	1.0317	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	2.55
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	2
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	25
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	571948
playerID	571948
playerName	Hoby Milner
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHC
teamID	5

Phil Maton (664208) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 10

All-history rows before 20260509: 10

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.800	0.000	0.200	1.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.670	1.000	-0.470	-0.800
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.100	1.000	0.900	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 10

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	2.000	4.000	1.000	6.000	0.000	4.1538	1.1538	0.4615	0.9231	0.2308	1.3846	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.100	8.000	10.000	5.000	11.000	1.000	8.6400	1.8000	0.9600	1.2000	0.6000	1.3200	0.1200
season	0.20	10	8.100	8.000	10.000	5.000	11.000	1.000	8.6400	1.8000	0.9600	1.2000	0.6000	1.3200	0.1200

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3540
predicted_ER	0.6010
predicted_ERA	6.6212
predicted_H	0.8780
predicted_HR	0.0540
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	1.1020
predicted_WHIP	1.5092

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3540	0.2301	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.6010	0.7407	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	6.6212	6.6212	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8780	0.5707	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0540	0.0351	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.1020	1.4163	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5092	1.5092	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	10
Season rows before report date	10
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	10
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	0
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	8.64
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	664208
playerID	664208
playerName	Phil Maton
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHC
teamID	5

Home Team: TEX

Justin Foscue (679822) · BATTER · 1B · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 0

All-history rows before 20260509: 0

System season_avg: 0.0000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): -

Diff (system - data): -

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	-	-	-	-
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	-	-	-	-
predicted_AB	0.000	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	-	-	-	-
predicted_AVG	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	-	-	-	-
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	-	-	-	-
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	-	-	-	-
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	-	-	-	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	-	-	-	-
predicted_OBP	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	-	-	-	-
predicted_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	-	-	-	-
predicted_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	-	-	-	-
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	-	-	-	-
predicted_SLG	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	-	-	-	-
predicted_SO	0.000	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	-	-	-	-

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw XGBoost model output

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	0.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.000	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.000	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.000	-
predicted_SLG	0.000	-
predicted_SO	0.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.471	2.471
predicted_AVG	0.000	0.000
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.000	0.000
predicted_R	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.000	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.47), rates preserved: AVG=0.000 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 0

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Total PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
last_10	0.35	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
season	0.20	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.8020
predicted_BB	0.0000
predicted_H	0.0000
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_R	0.0000
predicted_RBI	0.0000
predicted_SO	0.0000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	0.0000	3.8020	2.4713	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.0000	-	0.0000	model_only
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.0000	-	0.0000	model_only
predicted_R	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.0000	-	0.0000	model_only
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	0
Season rows before report date	0
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	0
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.0

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

No historical data found for this player before report date.

Alejandro Osuna (696030) · BATTER · LF · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 8

All-history rows before 20260509: 8

System season_avg: 0.1670

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1667

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.139	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.125	0.000	0.875	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.500	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	2.250	3.000	1.750	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.161	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.167	0.333	0.083	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.694	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.625	1.000	-0.625	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_H	0.340	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.375	1.000	0.625	0.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.379	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.400	0.500	-0.150	-0.250
predicted_R	0.278	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.226	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.222	0.333	0.278	0.167
predicted_SO	0.694	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.625	1.000	1.375	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.139	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.161	-
predicted_BB	0.694	-
predicted_H	0.340	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.379	-
predicted_R	0.278	-
predicted_RBI	0.140	-
predicted_SLG	0.226	-
predicted_SO	0.694	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.151	0.012
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.440	-0.060
predicted_AVG	0.161	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.590	-0.104
predicted_H	0.370	0.030
predicted_HBP	0.314	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.379	-0.000
predicted_R	0.247	-0.031
predicted_RBI	0.151	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.226	0.000
predicted_SO	0.699	0.005

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.148 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	13.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	0.1538	0.3529	0.2308	0.1538	0.0769	0.1538	0.3077
last_10	0.35	8	-	18.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	5.000	0.1667	0.4000	0.2222	0.1667	0.0556	0.2778	0.2778
season	0.20	8	-	18.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	5.000	0.1667	0.4000	0.2222	0.1667	0.0556	0.2778	0.2778

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1570
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.4080
predicted_AVG	0.1609
predicted_BB	0.5340
predicted_H	0.3870
predicted_HBP	0.3140
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.3788
predicted_R	0.2300
predicted_RBI	0.1570
predicted_SLG	0.2261
predicted_SO	0.7010

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1390	0.1570	0.1507	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.5000	2.4080	2.4402	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1610	0.1609	0.1609	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6940	0.5340	0.5900	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3400	0.3870	0.3705	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.3140	0.3140	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3790	0.3788	0.3789	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2780	0.2300	0.2468	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1400	0.1570	0.1511	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2260	0.2261	0.2261	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6940	0.7010	0.6986	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.167

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260506_TEX@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	696030
playerID	696030
playerName	Alejandro Osuna
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	TEX
teamID	28

Kyle Higashioka (543309) · BATTER · C · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 14

All-history rows before 20260509: 14

System season_avg: 0.1760

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1765

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.071	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.643	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.643	4.000	0.357	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.129	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.176	0.000	-0.176	0.000
predicted_BB	0.429	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.429	0.000	-0.429	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.410	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.643	0.000	-0.643	0.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.195	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.263	0.000	-0.263	0.000
predicted_R	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.154	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.255	0.000	-0.255	0.000
predicted_SO	1.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.286	3.000	-1.286	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.071	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.643	-
predicted_AVG	0.129	-
predicted_BB	0.429	-
predicted_H	0.410	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.195	-
predicted_R	0.286	-
predicted_RBI	0.150	-
predicted_SLG	0.154	-
predicted_SO	1.286	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.057	-0.014
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.725	0.082
predicted_AVG	0.129	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.356	-0.073
predicted_H	0.459	0.049
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.013	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.195	0.000
predicted_R	0.184	-0.102
predicted_RBI	0.171	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.154	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.403	0.117

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.72), rates preserved: AVG=0.123 HR/AB=0.004

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	8.000	0.1053	0.1500	0.1053	0.1053	0.0000	0.0526	0.0526	0.4210
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	14.000	0.1316	0.2143	0.1579	0.1316	0.0000	0.0263	0.1053	0.3684
season	0.20	14	-	51.000	9.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	6.000	18.000	0.1765	0.2632	0.2549	0.1765	0.0196	0.0784	0.1177	0.3529

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0490
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7690
predicted_AVG	0.1287
predicted_BB	0.3170
predicted_H	0.4850
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0150
predicted_OBP	0.1951
predicted_R	0.1290
predicted_RBI	0.1830
predicted_SLG	0.1536
predicted_SO	1.4660

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0710	0.0490	0.0567	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6430	3.7690	3.7249	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1290	0.1287	0.1288	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4290	0.3170	0.3562	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4100	0.4850	0.4587	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0150	0.0132	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1950	0.1951	0.1951	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2860	0.1290	0.1840	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1500	0.1830	0.1714	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1540	0.1536	0.1537	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2860	1.4660	1.4030	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.176

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260506_TEX@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	543309
playerID	543309
playerName	Kyle Higashioka
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	TEX
teamID	28

Corey Seager (608369) · BATTER · SS · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 37

All-history rows before 20260509: 37

System season_avg: 0.2030

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2029

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.162	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.162	0.000	-0.162	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.860	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.730	4.000	-0.730	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.163	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.203	0.000	-0.203	0.000
predicted_BB	0.568	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.568	0.000	0.432	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.630	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.757	0.000	-0.757	0.000
predicted_HR	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.189	0.000	-0.189	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.280	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.309	0.000	-0.059	0.250
predicted_R	0.568	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.568	0.000	-0.568	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.514	0.000	-0.514	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.316	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.399	0.000	-0.399	0.000
predicted_SO	1.162	3.000	3.000	Hitting_SO	1.162	1.000	1.838	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.162	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.860	-
predicted_AVG	0.163	-
predicted_BB	0.568	-
predicted_H	0.630	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.280	-
predicted_R	0.568	-
predicted_RBI	0.350	-
predicted_SLG	0.316	-
predicted_SO	1.162	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-0.037
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.870	0.010
predicted_AVG	0.163	0.000
predicted_BB	0.608	0.040
predicted_H	0.632	0.002
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.161	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.280	0.000
predicted_R	0.435	-0.133
predicted_RBI	0.352	0.002
predicted_SLG	0.316	0.000
predicted_SO	1.365	0.204

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.87), rates preserved: AVG=0.163 HR/AB=0.042

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.860

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	8.000	0.1500	0.2609	0.3000	0.1500	0.0500	0.1000	0.1500	0.4000
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	15.000	0.1579	0.2889	0.2895	0.1579	0.0263	0.0526	0.1842	0.3947
season	0.20	37	-	138.000	28.000	6.000	7.000	19.000	21.000	21.000	43.000	0.2029	0.3086	0.3986	0.2029	0.0507	0.1377	0.1522	0.3116

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1050
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.8760
predicted_AVG	0.1633
predicted_BB	0.6290
predicted_H	0.6330
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.1620
predicted_OBP	0.2802
predicted_R	0.3640
predicted_RBI	0.3530
predicted_SLG	0.3160
predicted_SO	1.4750

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1620	0.1050	0.1250	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8600	3.8760	3.8704	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1630	0.1633	0.1632	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5680	0.6290	0.6077	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6300	0.6330	0.6320	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.1620	0.1613	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2800	0.2802	0.2801	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5680	0.3640	0.4354	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3500	0.3530	0.3519	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3160	0.3160	0.3160	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1620	1.4750	1.3655	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.203

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260508_CHC@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	608369
playerID	608369
playerName	Corey Seager
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	TEX
teamID	28

Evan Carter (694497) · BATTER · CF · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 33

All-history rows before 20260509: 33

System season_avg: 0.1890

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1887

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.152	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.152	0.000	-0.152	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.212	2.000	2.000	Hitting_AB	3.212	2.000	-1.212	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.151	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.189	0.000	-0.189	0.000
predicted_BB	0.545	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.545	2.000	0.455	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.470	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.606	0.000	-0.606	0.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.121	0.000	-0.121	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.290	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.310	0.500	-0.060	-0.250
predicted_R	0.394	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.394	1.000	0.606	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.300	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.152	0.000	-0.152	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.334	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.349	0.000	-0.349	0.000
predicted_SO	0.879	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.879	0.000	0.121	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.152	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.212	-
predicted_AVG	0.151	-
predicted_BB	0.545	-
predicted_H	0.470	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.290	-
predicted_R	0.394	-
predicted_RBI	0.300	-
predicted_SLG	0.334	-
predicted_SO	0.879	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.153	0.001
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.241	0.029
predicted_AVG	0.151	0.000
predicted_BB	0.606	0.061
predicted_H	0.484	0.014
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.145	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.290	-0.000
predicted_R	0.454	0.060
predicted_RBI	0.309	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.334	0.000
predicted_SO	0.783	-0.096

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.24), rates preserved: AVG=0.149 HR/AB=0.045

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	1.000	1.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	3.000	0.1765	0.3333	0.4118	0.1765	0.0588	0.1177	0.2353	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	-	31.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	5.000	8.000	0.0968	0.2222	0.2258	0.0968	0.0323	0.0645	0.1613	0.2581
season	0.20	33	-	106.000	20.000	5.000	4.000	11.000	13.000	18.000	29.000	0.1887	0.3095	0.3491	0.1887	0.0377	0.1038	0.1698	0.2736

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1540
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.2570
predicted_AVG	0.1510
predicted_BB	0.6390
predicted_H	0.4920
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.1480
predicted_OBP	0.2897
predicted_R	0.4860
predicted_RBI	0.3140
predicted_SLG	0.3342
predicted_SO	0.7310

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1520	0.1540	0.1533	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2120	3.2570	3.2413	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1510	0.1510	0.1510	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5450	0.6390	0.6061	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4700	0.4920	0.4843	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1480	0.1452	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2900	0.2897	0.2898	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3940	0.4860	0.4538	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3000	0.3140	0.3091	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3340	0.3342	0.3341	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8790	0.7310	0.7828	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	1
SF	1
HBP	0
season_avg	0.189

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260508_CHC@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	694497
playerID	694497
playerName	Evan Carter
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	TEX
teamID	28

Brandon Nimmo (607043) · BATTER · RF · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 36

All-history rows before 20260509: 36

System season_avg: 0.2910

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2908

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.194	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.194	0.000	-0.194	0.000
predicted_3B	0.028	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_AB	4.310	2.000	2.000	Hitting_AB	3.917	3.000	-1.917	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.291	0.000	-0.291	0.000
predicted_BB	0.444	2.000	2.000	Hitting_BB	0.444	1.000	1.556	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_H	1.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.139	0.000	-1.139	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.401	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.373	0.250	0.127	0.250
predicted_R	0.472	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.472	0.000	-0.472	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.440	0.000	-0.440	0.000
predicted_SO	0.861	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.861	1.000	1.139	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.194	-
predicted_3B	0.028	-
predicted_AB	4.310	-
predicted_AVG	0.290	-
predicted_BB	0.444	-
predicted_H	1.250	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.401	-
predicted_R	0.472	-
predicted_RBI	0.120	-
predicted_SLG	0.320	-
predicted_SO	0.861	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.091	-0.103
predicted_3B	0.013	-0.015
predicted_AB	3.808	-0.502
predicted_AVG	0.290	0.000
predicted_BB	0.566	0.122
predicted_H	1.106	-0.144
predicted_HBP	0.050	-
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.401	-0.000
predicted_R	0.472	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.104	-0.016
predicted_SLG	0.320	0.000
predicted_SO	0.784	-0.077

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.31), rates preserved: AVG=0.257 HR/AB=0.005

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=16.0, BvP AVG=0.375)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-2.000
BB	2.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 4.310

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	4.000	0.2941	0.4286	0.2941	0.2941	0.0000	0.0000	0.2353	0.2353
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	10.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	6.000	0.2857	0.3810	0.2857	0.2857	0.0000	0.0286	0.1429	0.1714
season	0.20	36	-	141.000	41.000	7.000	1.000	4.000	12.000	17.000	16.000	31.000	0.2908	0.3727	0.4397	0.2908	0.0284	0.0851	0.1135	0.2199

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0350
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.5380
predicted_AVG	0.2905
predicted_BB	0.6320
predicted_H	1.0280
predicted_HBP	0.0500
predicted_HR	0.0200
predicted_OBP	0.4008
predicted_R	0.4720
predicted_RBI	0.0960
predicted_SLG	0.3203
predicted_SO	0.7430

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1940	0.0350	0.0907	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0280	0.0050	0.0130	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.3100	3.5380	3.8082	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2900	0.2905	0.2903	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4440	0.6320	0.5662	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2500	1.0280	1.1057	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0500	0.0500	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0200	0.0200	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4010	0.4008	0.4009	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4720	0.4720	0.4720	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1200	0.0960	0.1044	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3200	0.3203	0.3202	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8610	0.7430	0.7843	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.291

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260508_CHC@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	607043
playerID	607043
playerName	Brandon Nimmo
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	TEX
teamID	28

Ezequiel Duran (677649) · BATTER · 2B · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 24

All-history rows before 20260509: 24

System season_avg: 0.2990

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2987

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_3B	0.042	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.042	0.000	-0.042	0.000
predicted_AB	3.350	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.208	4.000	0.792	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.355	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.299	0.250	0.201	0.250
predicted_BB	0.458	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.458	0.000	-0.458	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.042	0.000	-0.042	0.000
predicted_H	1.190	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.958	1.000	1.042	1.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.449	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.382	0.250	0.118	0.250
predicted_R	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.700	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.458	0.000	-0.458	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.654	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.481	0.250	0.019	0.250
predicted_SO	0.625	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.625	1.000	0.375	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.042	-
predicted_AB	3.350	-
predicted_AVG	0.355	-
predicted_BB	0.458	-
predicted_H	1.190	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.449	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.700	-
predicted_SLG	0.654	-
predicted_SO	0.625	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.304	0.054
predicted_3B	0.099	0.057
predicted_AB	3.371	0.021
predicted_AVG	0.355	0.000
predicted_BB	0.611	0.153
predicted_H	1.197	0.007
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.139	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.449	0.000
predicted_R	0.607	0.107
predicted_RBI	0.703	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.654	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.644	0.019

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.37), rates preserved: AVG=0.355 HR/AB=0.041

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 24

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	4.000	4.000	4.000	0.3889	0.4783	0.7778	0.3889	0.0556	0.2778	0.2222	0.2222
last_10	0.35	10	-	32.000	11.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	6.000	7.000	5.000	0.3438	0.4500	0.5938	0.3438	0.0312	0.1562	0.2188	0.1562
season	0.20	24	-	77.000	23.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	11.000	12.000	11.000	15.000	0.2987	0.3820	0.4805	0.2987	0.0260	0.1429	0.1429	0.1948

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3330
predicted_3B	0.1300
predicted_AB	3.3820
predicted_AVG	0.3551
predicted_BB	0.6940
predicted_H	1.2010
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1390
predicted_OBP	0.4491
predicted_R	0.6650
predicted_RBI	0.7040
predicted_SLG	0.6539
predicted_SO	0.6550

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.3330	0.3040	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0420	0.1300	0.0992	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3500	3.3820	3.3708	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3550	0.3551	0.3551	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4580	0.6940	0.6114	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1900	1.2010	1.1972	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1390	0.1394	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4490	0.4491	0.4491	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.6650	0.6073	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7000	0.7040	0.7026	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6540	0.6539	0.6539	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6250	0.6550	0.6445	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	24
Season rows before report date	24
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	24
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.299

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B-LF-RF
gameID	20260508_CHC@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	677649
playerID	677649
playerName	Ezequiel Duran
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	TEX
teamID	28

Joc Pederson (592626) · BATTER · DH · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 27

All-history rows before 20260509: 27

System season_avg: 0.1870

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1867

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.037	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.037	0.000	-0.037	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.778	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.778	2.000	0.222	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.147	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.187	0.500	-0.187	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.370	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.370	0.000	0.630	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.519	1.000	-0.519	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.037	0.000	-0.037	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.190	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.281	0.500	-0.031	-0.250
predicted_R	0.259	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.259	0.000	0.741	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.290	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.185	0.000	0.815	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.158	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.240	0.500	-0.240	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.852	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.852	0.000	-0.852	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.037	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.778	-
predicted_AVG	0.147	-
predicted_BB	0.370	-
predicted_H	0.390	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.190	-
predicted_R	0.259	-
predicted_RBI	0.290	-
predicted_SLG	0.158	-
predicted_SO	0.852	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.018	-0.019
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.848	0.070
predicted_AVG	0.147	0.000
predicted_BB	0.250	-0.120
predicted_H	0.413	0.023
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.009	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.190	0.000
predicted_R	0.172	-0.087
predicted_RBI	0.309	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.158	0.000
predicted_SO	0.667	-0.185

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.85), rates preserved: AVG=0.145 HR/AB=0.003

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.1333	0.1333	0.1333	0.1333	0.0000	0.1333	0.0000	0.1333
last_10	0.35	10	-	28.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	6.000	0.1429	0.2121	0.1429	0.1429	0.0000	0.1071	0.1071	0.2143
season	0.20	27	-	75.000	14.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	7.000	10.000	23.000	0.1867	0.2809	0.2400	0.1867	0.0133	0.0667	0.1333	0.3067

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0080
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.8860
predicted_AVG	0.1473
predicted_BB	0.1850
predicted_H	0.4250
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.0080
predicted_OBP	0.1904
predicted_R	0.1260
predicted_RBI	0.3200
predicted_SLG	0.1580
predicted_SO	0.5670

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0370	0.0080	0.0181	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.7780	2.8860	2.8482	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1470	0.1473	0.1472	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3700	0.1850	0.2497	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3900	0.4250	0.4127	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0080	0.0087	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1900	0.1904	0.1903	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2590	0.1260	0.1725	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2900	0.3200	0.3095	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1580	0.1580	0.1580	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8520	0.5670	0.6667	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.187

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260507_TEX@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	592626
playerID	592626
playerName	Joc Pederson
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	TEX
teamID	28

Josh Jung (673962) · BATTER · 3B · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 34

All-history rows before 20260509: 34

System season_avg: 0.3080

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3077

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.353	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.353	0.000	-0.353	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.890	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.824	4.000	-0.824	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.252	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.308	0.000	-0.308	0.000
predicted_BB	0.294	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.294	0.000	0.706	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_H	0.980	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.176	0.000	-1.176	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.302	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.364	0.000	-0.114	0.250
predicted_R	0.382	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.382	0.000	-0.382	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.559	0.000	-0.559	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.298	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.492	0.000	-0.492	0.000
predicted_SO	0.647	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.647	1.000	1.353	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.353	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.890	-
predicted_AVG	0.252	-
predicted_BB	0.294	-
predicted_H	0.980	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.302	-
predicted_R	0.382	-
predicted_RBI	0.280	-
predicted_SLG	0.298	-
predicted_SO	0.647	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.195	-0.158
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.997	0.107
predicted_AVG	0.252	0.000
predicted_BB	0.213	-0.081
predicted_H	1.008	0.028
predicted_HBP	0.135	-
predicted_HR	0.023	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.302	0.000
predicted_R	0.266	-0.116
predicted_RBI	0.290	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.298	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.680	0.033

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.252 HR/AB=0.006

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.890

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	0.1905	0.2273	0.1905	0.1905	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.1905
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	12.000	1.000	0.000	5.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	0.3000	0.3636	0.3250	0.3000	0.0000	0.1250	0.0750	0.1500
season	0.20	34	-	130.000	40.000	12.000	4.000	19.000	13.000	10.000	22.000	0.3077	0.3636	0.4923	0.3077	0.0308	0.1462	0.0769	0.1692

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1100
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.0550
predicted_AVG	0.2523
predicted_BB	0.1690
predicted_H	1.0230
predicted_HBP	0.1350
predicted_HR	0.0250
predicted_OBP	0.3023
predicted_R	0.2030
predicted_RBI	0.2960
predicted_SLG	0.2979
predicted_SO	0.6980

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3530	0.1100	0.1951	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8900	4.0550	3.9972	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2520	0.2523	0.2522	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2940	0.1690	0.2127	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9800	1.0230	1.0079	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1350	0.1350	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0250	0.0232	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3020	0.3023	0.3022	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3820	0.2030	0.2656	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2800	0.2960	0.2904	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2980	0.2979	0.2979	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6470	0.6980	0.6802	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.308

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260508_CHC@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	673962
playerID	673962
playerName	Josh Jung
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	TEX
teamID	28

Jack Leiter (683004) · PITCHER · Starter · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 7

All-history rows before 20260509: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	6.000	6.000	-	Pitching_ER	3.286	5.000	2.714	1.000
predicted_IP	4.200	4.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.229	6.200	-1.029	-2.000
predicted_SO	8.000	8.000	-	Pitching_SO	6.143	10.000	1.857	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 4.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	27.000	20.000	30.000	11.000	26.000	6.000	6.6667	1.5185	0.7407	1.1111	0.4074	0.9630	0.2222
last_10	0.35	7	38.000	23.000	39.000	13.000	43.000	7.000	5.4474	1.3684	0.6053	1.0263	0.3421	1.1316	0.1842
season	0.20	7	38.000	23.000	39.000	13.000	43.000	7.000	5.4474	1.3684	0.6053	1.0263	0.3421	1.1316	0.1842

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.9810
predicted_ER	3.5530
predicted_ERA	5.9961
predicted_H	5.6770
predicted_HR	1.0740
predicted_IP	5.1000
predicted_SO	5.6300
predicted_WHIP	1.4359

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	1.9810	1.9877	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	6.0000	3.5530	4.4094	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.9961	5.9961	form_only
predicted_H	7.0000	5.6770	6.1400	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	4.0000	1.0740	2.0981	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.2000	5.1000	5.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	8.0000	5.6300	6.4595	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4359	1.4359	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.2
H	7
R	6
ER	6
BB	2
SO	8
HR	4
BF	24
Pitches	102

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	26
Pitching_ER	5
Pitching_ERA	5.45
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	5
Pitching_H	5
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.2
Pitching_Pitches	100
Pitching_R	5
Pitching_SO	10
Pitching_Strikes	73
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_TEX@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	683004
playerID	683004
playerName	Jack Leiter
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	TEX
teamID	28

Cole Winn (668390) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 16

All-history rows before 20260509: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.744	0.100	0.356	1.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	0.000	-1.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.100	5.000	6.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	13.5000	2.1000	1.5000	1.8000	0.3000	1.2000	0.3000
last_10	0.35	10	8.200	8.000	10.000	4.000	11.000	3.000	8.3077	1.6154	0.9231	1.1539	0.4615	1.2692	0.3462
season	0.20	16	14.000	8.000	14.000	6.000	16.000	3.000	5.1429	1.4286	0.5714	1.0000	0.4286	1.1429	0.2143

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3250
predicted_ER	0.9460
predicted_ERA	10.0113
predicted_H	1.2020
predicted_HR	0.2540
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0310
predicted_WHIP	1.7961

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3250	0.5613	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.9460	0.9649	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	10.0113	10.0113	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	1.2020	1.4813	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2540	0.1651	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.0000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.0310	0.6702	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.7961	1.7961	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.14
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	2
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	7
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	4
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_TEX@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	668390
playerID	668390
playerName	Cole Winn
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TEX
teamID	28

Jacob Latz (656641) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 15

All-history rows before 20260509: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.167	1.000	-0.067	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.067	1.000	-0.067	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	0.000	0.0000	0.3333	0.0000	0.1667	0.1667	1.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	2.000	5.000	2.000	8.000	1.000	1.8621	0.7241	0.2069	0.5172	0.2069	0.8276	0.1035
season	0.20	15	18.200	2.000	5.000	4.000	16.000	1.000	0.9643	0.4821	0.1071	0.2679	0.2143	0.8571	0.0536

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2320
predicted_ER	0.1140
predicted_ERA	0.8446
predicted_H	0.3770
predicted_HR	0.0570
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.1080
predicted_WHIP	0.4998

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.2320	0.5008	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1140	0.0741	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.8446	0.8446	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.3770	0.2451	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0570	0.0370	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1080	1.0702	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.4998	0.4998	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.96
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	21
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_TEX@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	656641
playerID	656641
playerName	Jacob Latz
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TEX
teamID	28

Tyler Alexander (641302) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 18

All-history rows before 20260509: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.278	0.000	0.722	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.889	1.000	0.111	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.722	0.000	0.278	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	4.000	9.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	9.0000	2.7500	1.0000	2.2500	0.5000	0.2500	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	4.000	15.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	4.0000	1.8889	0.4444	1.6667	0.2222	0.4444	0.1111
season	0.20	18	18.100	5.000	23.000	5.000	13.000	1.000	2.4545	1.5273	0.2727	1.2546	0.2727	0.7091	0.0546

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3040
predicted_ER	0.5610
predicted_ERA	5.9409
predicted_H	1.5700
predicted_HR	0.1380
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.3480
predicted_WHIP	2.2041

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	4.0000	0.3040	1.5976	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.5610	0.7147	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.9409	5.9409	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.5700	1.0205	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1380	0.0897	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.3480	0.5762	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	2.2041	2.2041	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	1
ER	1
BB	4
SO	1
HR	0
BF	7
Pitches	36

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.45
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	5
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	4
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_CHC@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	641302
playerID	641302
playerName	Tyler Alexander
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TEX
teamID	28

Jakob Junis (596001) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 15

All-history rows before 20260509: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.073	1.000	-0.873	-0.800
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.467	1.000	-0.467	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	0.0000	0.6000	0.0000	0.4000	0.2000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	3.000	7.000	5.000	3.000	2.6129	1.1613	0.2903	0.6774	0.4839	0.2903
season	0.20	15	16.100	3.000	8.000	5.000	7.000	1.6531	0.7959	0.1837	0.4898	0.3061	0.4286

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3210
predicted_ER	0.1380
predicted_ERA	1.2451
predicted_H	0.5150
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.2770
predicted_WHIP	0.8356

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3210	0.2087	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1380	0.0897	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.2451	1.2451	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.5150	0.3348	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.2770	0.1801	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.8356	0.8356	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	12

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.65
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	25
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	14
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_CHC@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	596001
playerID	596001
playerName	Jakob Junis
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TEX
teamID	28

20260509_COL@PHI

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "confidence": 0.5611350146513927, "home_win_probability": 0.4388649853486073, "away_win_probability": 0.5611350146513927, "predicted_score_text": "COL 6 - 4 PHI", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to final winner probability with starter-quality caps.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "predicted_score_text": "COL 6 - 5 PHI", "confidence": 0.5611350146513927, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score", "final_prediction_synced": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "COL 6 - 5 PHI", "winner": "COL"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "COL 6 - 4 PHI", "winner": "COL"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": -1, "total_run_delta": -1, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"}}

Away Team: COL

Ezequiel Tovar (678662) · BATTER · SS · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 35

All-history rows before 20260509: 35

System season_avg: 0.1890

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1894

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.229	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.229	0.000	0.771	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.771	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.771	5.000	0.229	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.133	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.189	0.200	0.061	0.050
predicted_BB	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.440	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.714	1.000	0.286	0.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.193	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.239	0.200	0.011	0.050
predicted_R	0.257	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.257	0.000	0.743	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.286	1.000	-0.286	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.086	1.000	-0.086	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.150	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.273	0.200	0.227	0.300
predicted_SO	1.143	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.143	3.000	0.857	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.229	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.771	-
predicted_AVG	0.133	-
predicted_BB	0.200	-
predicted_H	0.440	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.193	-
predicted_R	0.257	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.150	-
predicted_SO	1.143	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.107	-0.122
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.555	-0.216
predicted_AVG	0.133	0.000
predicted_BB	0.247	0.047
predicted_H	0.452	0.012
predicted_HBP	0.010	-
predicted_HR	0.003	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.193	-0.000
predicted_R	0.144	-0.113
predicted_RBI	0.373	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.150	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.151	0.008

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.77), rates preserved: AVG=0.120 HR/AB=0.001

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=12.0, BvP AVG=0.167)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	0.1176	0.1579	0.1176	0.1177	0.0000	0.1177	0.0588	0.3529
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	1.000	4.000	11.000	0.1212	0.2105	0.1212	0.1212	0.0000	0.1212	0.1212	0.3333
season	0.20	35	-	132.000	25.000	8.000	1.000	10.000	9.000	7.000	40.000	0.1894	0.2394	0.2727	0.1894	0.0076	0.0758	0.0530	0.3030

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0420
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.4390
predicted_AVG	0.1332
predicted_BB	0.2730
predicted_H	0.4580
predicted_HBP	0.0100
predicted_HR	0.0050
predicted_OBP	0.1926
predicted_R	0.0830
predicted_RBI	0.3800
predicted_SLG	0.1499
predicted_SO	1.1560

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2290	0.0420	0.1075	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7710	3.4390	3.5552	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1330	0.1332	0.1331	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2000	0.2730	0.2475	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4400	0.4580	0.4517	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0100	0.0100	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0050	0.0033	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1930	0.1926	0.1927	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2570	0.0830	0.1439	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.3800	0.3730	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1500	0.1499	0.1499	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1430	1.1560	1.1514	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.189

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260508_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	678662
playerID	678662
playerName	Ezequiel Tovar
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	COL
teamID	9

Hunter Goodman (696100) · BATTER · C · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 33

All-history rows before 20260509: 33

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.212	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.212	0.000	-0.212	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.120	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	5.000	1.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.239	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.800	-0.250	-0.800
predicted_BB	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.061	1.000	-0.061	-1.000
predicted_H	0.980	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.000	4.000	-1.000	-4.000
predicted_HR	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.303	1.000	-0.303	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.322	0.800	-0.322	-0.800
predicted_R	0.727	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.727	1.000	-0.727	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.540	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.485	2.000	-0.485	-2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.465	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.530	1.400	-0.530	-1.400
predicted_SO	1.667	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.667	1.000	-1.667	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.212	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.120	-
predicted_AVG	0.239	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.980	-
predicted_HR	0.280	-
predicted_OBP	0.300	-
predicted_R	0.727	-
predicted_RBI	0.540	-
predicted_SLG	0.465	-
predicted_SO	1.667	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.126	-0.086
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.169	0.049
predicted_AVG	0.239	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.345	0.012
predicted_H	0.994	0.014
predicted_HBP	0.019	-
predicted_HR	0.286	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.300	0.000
predicted_R	0.567	-0.160
predicted_RBI	0.550	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.465	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.655	-0.012

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.17), rates preserved: AVG=0.238 HR/AB=0.069

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	2.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 4.120

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	8.000	0.2381	0.3043	0.3810	0.2381	0.0476	0.0952	0.0952	0.3810
last_10	0.35	10	-	43.000	10.000	1.000	4.000	8.000	7.000	3.000	17.000	0.2326	0.2826	0.5349	0.2326	0.0930	0.1860	0.0698	0.3953
season	0.20	33	-	132.000	33.000	7.000	10.000	16.000	24.000	11.000	55.000	0.2500	0.3219	0.5303	0.2500	0.0758	0.1212	0.0833	0.4167

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0790
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.1950
predicted_AVG	0.2386
predicted_BB	0.3520
predicted_H	1.0010
predicted_HBP	0.0190
predicted_HR	0.2900
predicted_OBP	0.3002
predicted_R	0.4810
predicted_RBI	0.5550
predicted_SLG	0.4647
predicted_SO	1.6490

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2120	0.0790	0.1255	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1200	4.1950	4.1688	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2390	0.2386	0.2387	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.3520	0.3453	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9800	1.0010	0.9936	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0190	0.0190	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2800	0.2900	0.2865	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3000	0.3002	0.3001	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7270	0.4810	0.5671	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5400	0.5550	0.5498	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4650	0.4647	0.4648	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.6670	1.6490	1.6553	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	1
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.8
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	4
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	7
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260508_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	696100
playerID	696100
playerName	Hunter Goodman
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	COL
teamID	9

Mickey Moniak (666160) · BATTER · LF · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 27

All-history rows before 20260509: 27

System season_avg: 0.3270

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3269

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.259	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.259	0.000	0.741	1.000
predicted_3B	0.037	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.037	0.000	-0.037	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.852	3.000	1.148	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.320	0.600	0.600	Hitting_AVG	0.327	0.000	0.273	0.600
predicted_BB	0.296	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.296	1.000	-0.296	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.280	3.000	3.000	Hitting_H	1.259	0.000	1.741	3.000
predicted_HR	0.450	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.407	0.000	0.593	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.389	0.600	0.600	Hitting_OBP	0.377	0.250	0.223	0.350
predicted_R	0.741	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.741	0.000	0.259	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.670	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	0.741	0.000	1.259	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.037	0.000	-0.037	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.772	1.400	1.400	Hitting_SLG	0.731	0.000	0.669	1.400
predicted_SO	1.074	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.074	1.000	-0.074	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.259	-
predicted_3B	0.037	-
predicted_AB	4.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.320	-
predicted_BB	0.296	-
predicted_H	1.280	-
predicted_HR	0.450	-
predicted_OBP	0.389	-
predicted_R	0.741	-
predicted_RBI	0.670	-
predicted_SLG	0.772	-
predicted_SO	1.074	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.229	-0.030
predicted_3B	0.098	0.061
predicted_AB	4.039	0.039
predicted_AVG	0.320	0.000
predicted_BB	0.373	0.077
predicted_H	1.294	0.014
predicted_HBP	0.043	-
predicted_HR	0.453	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.389	-0.000
predicted_R	0.782	0.041
predicted_RBI	0.678	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.772	0.000
predicted_SO	1.106	0.032

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.04), rates preserved: AVG=0.320 HR/AB=0.112

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	5.000	2.000	5.000	0.3333	0.3913	0.9048	0.3333	0.1429	0.1905	0.0952	0.2381
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	12.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	6.000	5.000	13.000	0.3000	0.3913	0.6250	0.3000	0.0750	0.1250	0.1250	0.3250
season	0.20	27	-	104.000	34.000	7.000	1.000	11.000	20.000	20.000	8.000	29.000	0.3269	0.3772	0.7308	0.3269	0.1058	0.1923	0.0769	0.2788

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2130
predicted_3B	0.1300
predicted_AB	4.0600
predicted_AVG	0.3204
predicted_BB	0.4140
predicted_H	1.3010
predicted_HBP	0.0430
predicted_HR	0.4540
predicted_OBP	0.3885
predicted_R	0.8040
predicted_RBI	0.6820
predicted_SLG	0.7721
predicted_SO	1.1230

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2590	0.2130	0.2291	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0370	0.1300	0.0975	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0000	4.0600	4.0390	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3200	0.3204	0.3203	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2960	0.4140	0.3727	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2800	1.3010	1.2936	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0430	0.0430	form_only
predicted_HR	0.4500	0.4540	0.4526	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3890	0.3885	0.3887	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7410	0.8040	0.7820	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6700	0.6820	0.6778	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.7720	0.7721	0.7721	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0740	1.1230	1.1058	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	3
2B	1
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.327

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	1
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260507_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	666160
playerID	666160
playerName	Mickey Moniak
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	COL
teamID	9

Kyle Karros (691720) · BATTER · 3B · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 34

All-history rows before 20260509: 34

System season_avg: 0.2230

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2233

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.147	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.147	1.000	-0.147	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.029	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.029	4.000	0.971	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.278	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.223	0.250	-0.223	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.588	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.588	0.000	0.412	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.780	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.676	1.000	-0.676	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.381	0.200	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.344	0.250	-0.144	-0.050
predicted_R	0.441	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.441	1.000	-0.441	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.206	2.000	-0.206	-2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.301	0.500	-0.301	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.941	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.941	2.000	-0.941	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.147	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.029	-
predicted_AVG	0.278	-
predicted_BB	0.588	-
predicted_H	0.780	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.381	-
predicted_R	0.441	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.370	-
predicted_SO	0.941	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.234	0.087
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.163	0.135
predicted_AVG	0.278	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.573	-0.015
predicted_H	0.857	0.077
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.007	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.381	-0.000
predicted_R	0.421	-0.020
predicted_RBI	0.429	0.039
predicted_SLG	0.370	0.000
predicted_SO	1.301	0.360

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.16), rates preserved: AVG=0.271 HR/AB=0.002

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	8.000	0.3125	0.4211	0.4375	0.3125	0.0000	0.1875	0.1875	0.5000
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	9.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	4.000	5.000	17.000	0.2647	0.3500	0.3235	0.2647	0.0000	0.1177	0.1471	0.5000
season	0.20	34	-	103.000	23.000	5.000	1.000	7.000	15.000	20.000	32.000	0.2233	0.3440	0.3010	0.2233	0.0097	0.0680	0.1942	0.3107

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2800
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.2360
predicted_AVG	0.2779
predicted_BB	0.5650
predicted_H	0.8990
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0060
predicted_OBP	0.3808
predicted_R	0.4100
predicted_RBI	0.4500
predicted_SLG	0.3703
predicted_SO	1.4950

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1470	0.2800	0.2335	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0290	3.2360	3.1635	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2780	0.2779	0.2779	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5880	0.5650	0.5730	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7800	0.8990	0.8574	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0060	0.0074	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3810	0.3808	0.3809	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4410	0.4100	0.4209	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.4500	0.4290	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3700	0.3703	0.3702	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9410	1.4950	1.3011	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.223

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260508_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	691720
playerID	691720
playerName	Kyle Karros
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	COL
teamID	9

Troy Johnston (687859) · BATTER · RF · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 31

All-history rows before 20260509: 31

System season_avg: 0.3240

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3243

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.300	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.290	0.000	0.710	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.700	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.581	3.000	1.419	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.367	0.200	0.200	Hitting_AVG	0.324	0.333	-0.124	-0.133
predicted_BB	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.355	1.000	-0.355	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.032	0.000	-0.032	0.000
predicted_H	1.280	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.161	1.000	-0.161	0.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.065	0.000	-0.065	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.446	0.200	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.390	0.500	-0.190	-0.300
predicted_R	0.367	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.355	0.000	0.645	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.516	0.000	0.484	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.032	0.000	-0.032	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.476	0.400	0.400	Hitting_SLG	0.459	0.333	-0.059	0.067
predicted_SO	0.833	3.000	3.000	Hitting_SO	0.806	1.000	2.194	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.300	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.700	-
predicted_AVG	0.367	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	1.280	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.446	-
predicted_R	0.367	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.476	-
predicted_SO	0.833	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.331	0.031
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.590	-0.111
predicted_AVG	0.367	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.452	0.119
predicted_H	1.290	0.010
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.012	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.446	0.000
predicted_R	0.362	-0.005
predicted_RBI	0.365	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.476	0.000
predicted_SO	0.839	0.006

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.70), rates preserved: AVG=0.349 HR/AB=0.003

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	7.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	0.4118	0.5000	0.5294	0.4118	0.0000	0.0588	0.1765	0.2353
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	12.000	3.000	0.000	5.000	3.000	5.000	9.000	0.3333	0.4146	0.4167	0.3333	0.0000	0.1389	0.1389	0.2500
season	0.20	30	-	111.000	36.000	9.000	2.000	16.000	11.000	10.000	25.000	0.3243	0.3802	0.4595	0.3243	0.0180	0.1441	0.0901	0.2252

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3470
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.5300
predicted_AVG	0.3668
predicted_BB	0.5160
predicted_H	1.2950
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0130
predicted_OBP	0.4461
predicted_R	0.3600
predicted_RBI	0.3670
predicted_SLG	0.4760
predicted_SO	0.8420

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3000	0.3470	0.3306	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7000	3.5300	3.5895	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3670	0.3668	0.3669	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.5160	0.4520	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2800	1.2950	1.2897	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0130	0.0119	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4460	0.4461	0.4461	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3670	0.3600	0.3624	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.3670	0.3646	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4760	0.4760	0.4760	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8330	0.8420	0.8388	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.324

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260507_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	687859
playerID	687859
playerName	Troy Johnston
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	COL
teamID	9

Willi Castro (650489) · BATTER · 2B · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 27

All-history rows before 20260509: 27

System season_avg: 0.2630

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2626

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.185	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.185	0.000	-0.185	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.667	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.667	5.000	-0.667	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.317	0.667	0.667	Hitting_AVG	0.263	0.400	0.404	0.267
predicted_BB	0.333	2.000	2.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	1.667	2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.074	0.000	-0.074	0.000
predicted_H	1.090	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.963	2.000	1.037	0.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.037	0.000	-0.037	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.387	0.800	0.800	Hitting_OBP	0.330	0.400	0.470	0.400
predicted_R	0.593	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.593	2.000	0.407	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.444	0.000	-0.444	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.111	1.000	-0.111	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.343	0.667	0.667	Hitting_SLG	0.343	0.400	0.323	0.267
predicted_SO	1.296	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.296	2.000	-1.296	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.185	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.667	-
predicted_AVG	0.317	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	1.090	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.387	-
predicted_R	0.593	-
predicted_RBI	0.300	-
predicted_SLG	0.343	-
predicted_SO	1.296	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.114	-0.071
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.749	0.082
predicted_AVG	0.317	0.000
predicted_BB	0.392	0.059
predicted_H	1.163	0.073
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.009	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.387	-0.000
predicted_R	0.677	0.084
predicted_RBI	0.316	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.343	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.256	-0.040

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.75), rates preserved: AVG=0.310 HR/AB=0.002

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, BvP AVG=0.333)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	2.000	2.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	7.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	7.000	0.3500	0.4091	0.3500	0.3500	0.0000	0.0500	0.1000	0.3500
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	11.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	7.000	5.000	10.000	0.3056	0.3902	0.3333	0.3056	0.0000	0.1111	0.1389	0.2778
season	0.20	27	-	99.000	26.000	5.000	1.000	12.000	16.000	9.000	35.000	0.2626	0.3303	0.3434	0.2626	0.0101	0.1212	0.0909	0.3535

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0750
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7930
predicted_AVG	0.3170
predicted_BB	0.4240
predicted_H	1.2020
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.0080
predicted_OBP	0.3867
predicted_R	0.7220
predicted_RBI	0.3250
predicted_SLG	0.3428
predicted_SO	1.2340

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1850	0.0750	0.1135	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6670	3.7930	3.7489	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3170	0.3170	0.3170	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.4240	0.3921	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0900	1.2020	1.1628	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0080	0.0087	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3870	0.3867	0.3868	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5930	0.7220	0.6768	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3000	0.3250	0.3163	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3430	0.3428	0.3429	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2960	1.2340	1.2557	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	3
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.263

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B-3B
gameID	20260508_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	650489
playerID	650489
playerName	Willi Castro
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	COL
teamID	9

TJ Rumfield (681198) · BATTER · 1B · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 36

All-history rows before 20260509: 36

System season_avg: 0.2680

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2681

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_3B	0.028	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_AB	3.900	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.833	6.000	0.167	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.329	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.268	0.167	-0.018	0.083
predicted_BB	0.361	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.361	0.000	0.639	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.280	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.028	1.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_HR	0.240	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.111	0.000	0.889	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.376	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.167	0.067	0.233
predicted_R	0.389	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.389	1.000	0.611	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.590	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	0.556	1.000	1.444	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.544	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SLG	0.413	0.167	0.587	0.833
predicted_SO	0.694	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.694	2.000	0.306	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.028	-
predicted_AB	3.900	-
predicted_AVG	0.329	-
predicted_BB	0.361	-
predicted_H	1.280	-
predicted_HR	0.240	-
predicted_OBP	0.376	-
predicted_R	0.389	-
predicted_RBI	0.590	-
predicted_SLG	0.544	-
predicted_SO	0.694	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.127	-0.040
predicted_3B	0.014	-0.014
predicted_AB	4.152	0.252
predicted_AVG	0.329	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.337	-0.024
predicted_H	1.364	0.084
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.258	0.018
predicted_OBP	0.376	-0.000
predicted_R	0.553	0.164
predicted_RBI	0.626	0.036
predicted_SLG	0.544	0.000
predicted_SO	0.670	-0.024

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.15), rates preserved: AVG=0.329 HR/AB=0.062

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.900

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	22.000	8.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	0.3636	0.4167	0.6364	0.3636	0.0909	0.1818	0.0909	0.1364
last_10	0.35	10	-	44.000	14.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	6.000	2.000	7.000	0.3182	0.3478	0.5000	0.3182	0.0454	0.1136	0.0454	0.1591
season	0.20	36	-	138.000	37.000	6.000	1.000	4.000	20.000	14.000	13.000	25.000	0.2681	0.3333	0.4130	0.2681	0.0290	0.1449	0.0942	0.1812

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1050
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	4.2870
predicted_AVG	0.3286
predicted_BB	0.3240
predicted_H	1.4090
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.2680
predicted_OBP	0.3759
predicted_R	0.6420
predicted_RBI	0.6450
predicted_SLG	0.5440
predicted_SO	0.6570

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.1050	0.1267	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0280	0.0060	0.0137	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9000	4.2870	4.1516	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3290	0.3286	0.3287	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3610	0.3240	0.3369	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2800	1.4090	1.3639	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2400	0.2680	0.2582	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3760	0.3759	0.3759	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3890	0.6420	0.5534	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5900	0.6450	0.6258	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5440	0.5440	0.5440	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6940	0.6570	0.6700	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.268

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	6
Hitting_AVG	0.167
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260508_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	681198
playerID	681198
playerName	TJ Rumfield
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	COL
teamID	9

Jake McCarthy (664983) · BATTER · CF · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 23

All-history rows before 20260509: 23

System season_avg: 0.2750

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2754

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.261	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.261	1.000	-0.261	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.087	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.087	0.000	-0.087	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	4.000	0.000	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.331	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.275	0.500	-0.275	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.217	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.217	0.000	0.783	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.087	0.000	-0.087	0.000
predicted_H	0.840	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.826	2.000	-0.826	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.210	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.087	1.000	-0.087	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.390	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.500	-0.083	-0.250
predicted_R	0.304	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.304	1.000	-0.304	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.880	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.565	5.000	-0.565	-5.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.217	0.000	-0.217	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.766	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.507	1.500	-0.507	-1.500
predicted_SO	0.609	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.609	2.000	1.391	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.261	-
predicted_3B	0.087	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.331	-
predicted_BB	0.217	-
predicted_H	0.840	-
predicted_HR	0.210	-
predicted_OBP	0.390	-
predicted_R	0.304	-
predicted_RBI	0.880	-
predicted_SLG	0.766	-
predicted_SO	0.609	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.275	0.014
predicted_3B	0.122	0.035
predicted_AB	3.081	0.081
predicted_AVG	0.331	0.000
predicted_BB	0.266	0.049
predicted_H	0.967	0.127
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.245	0.035
predicted_OBP	0.390	0.000
predicted_R	0.537	0.233
predicted_RBI	1.014	0.134
predicted_SLG	0.766	0.000
predicted_SO	0.559	-0.050

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.08), rates preserved: AVG=0.314 HR/AB=0.080

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=15.0, BvP AVG=0.400)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 23

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	0.3125	0.3889	0.8750	0.3125	0.1250	0.4375	0.1250	0.1875
last_10	0.35	10	-	31.000	12.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	10.000	7.000	2.000	4.000	0.3871	0.4242	0.7742	0.3871	0.0645	0.3226	0.0645	0.1290
season	0.20	23	-	69.000	19.000	6.000	2.000	2.000	13.000	7.000	5.000	14.000	0.2754	0.3333	0.5072	0.2754	0.0290	0.1884	0.0725	0.2029

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2830
predicted_3B	0.1410
predicted_AB	3.1250
predicted_AVG	0.3312
predicted_BB	0.2920
predicted_H	1.0350
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.2640
predicted_OBP	0.3901
predicted_R	0.6620
predicted_RBI	1.0860
predicted_SLG	0.7662
predicted_SO	0.5320

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2610	0.2830	0.2753	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0870	0.1410	0.1221	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.1250	3.0812	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3310	0.3312	0.3311	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2170	0.2920	0.2657	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8400	1.0350	0.9667	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2100	0.2640	0.2451	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3900	0.3901	0.3901	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3040	0.6620	0.5367	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.8800	1.0860	1.0139	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.7660	0.7662	0.7661	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6090	0.5320	0.5590	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	23
Season rows before report date	23
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	23
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.275

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	5
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	6
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF-RF
gameID	20260507_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	664983
playerID	664983
playerName	Jake McCarthy
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	COL
teamID	9

Edouard Julien (666397) · BATTER · DH · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 26

All-history rows before 20260509: 26

System season_avg: 0.2800

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2796

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.115	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.115	0.000	0.885	1.000
predicted_3B	0.038	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.038	0.000	-0.038	0.000
predicted_AB	3.930	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.577	4.000	0.423	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.266	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.280	0.000	0.220	0.500
predicted_BB	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.500	1.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_H	1.040	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.370	0.600	0.600	Hitting_OBP	0.368	0.200	0.232	0.400
predicted_R	0.577	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.577	0.000	0.423	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.462	0.000	0.538	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.115	0.000	-0.115	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.405	0.750	0.750	Hitting_SLG	0.398	0.000	0.352	0.750
predicted_SO	1.154	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.154	1.000	-0.154	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.115	-
predicted_3B	0.038	-
predicted_AB	3.930	-
predicted_AVG	0.266	-
predicted_BB	0.500	-
predicted_H	1.040	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.370	-
predicted_R	0.577	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.405	-
predicted_SO	1.154	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.080	-0.035
predicted_3B	0.041	0.003
predicted_AB	4.002	0.071
predicted_AVG	0.266	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.608	0.108
predicted_H	1.062	0.022
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.135	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.370	-0.000
predicted_R	0.657	0.080
predicted_RBI	0.410	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.405	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.495	0.341

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.265 HR/AB=0.034

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 26

Reference playing time: 3.930

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	10.000	0.2381	0.3600	0.3810	0.2381	0.0476	0.0952	0.1905	0.4762
last_10	0.35	10	-	41.000	12.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	9.000	6.000	16.000	0.2927	0.3830	0.4390	0.2927	0.0244	0.0976	0.1463	0.3902
season	0.20	26	-	93.000	26.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	12.000	15.000	13.000	30.000	0.2796	0.3679	0.3978	0.2796	0.0215	0.1290	0.1398	0.3226

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0610
predicted_3B	0.0430
predicted_AB	4.0400
predicted_AVG	0.2655
predicted_BB	0.6660
predicted_H	1.0730
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1380
predicted_OBP	0.3696
predicted_R	0.7000
predicted_RBI	0.4150
predicted_SLG	0.4047
predicted_SO	1.6780

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1150	0.0610	0.0799	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0380	0.0430	0.0412	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9300	4.0400	4.0015	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2660	0.2655	0.2657	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5000	0.6660	0.6079	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0400	1.0730	1.0615	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1380	0.1352	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3700	0.3696	0.3697	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5770	0.7000	0.6569	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.4150	0.4097	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4050	0.4047	0.4048	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1540	1.6780	1.4946	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	26
Season rows before report date	26
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	26
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.28

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B-1B
gameID	20260507_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	666397
playerID	666397
playerName	Edouard Julien
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	COL
teamID	9

Kyle Freeland (607536) · PITCHER · Starter · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 6

All-history rows before 20260509: 6

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	2.333	6.000	-0.333	-4.000
predicted_IP	4.100	4.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.050	4.100	0.050	0.000
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	-	Pitching_SO	4.000	7.000	1.000	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 5

Reference playing time: 4.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	25.000	14.000	26.000	8.000	24.000	4.000	5.0400	1.3600	0.5600	1.0400	0.3200	0.9600	0.1600
last_10	0.35	5	25.000	14.000	26.000	8.000	24.000	4.000	5.0400	1.3600	0.5600	1.0400	0.3200	0.9600	0.1600
season	0.20	5	25.000	14.000	26.000	8.000	24.000	4.000	5.0400	1.3600	0.5600	1.0400	0.3200	0.9600	0.1600

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.6000
predicted_ER	2.8000
predicted_ERA	5.0400
predicted_H	5.2000
predicted_HR	0.8000
predicted_IP	5.0000
predicted_SO	4.8000
predicted_WHIP	1.3600

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	1.6000	1.3900	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.8000	2.5200	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.0400	5.0400	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	5.2000	4.7800	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.8000	0.5200	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.1000	5.0000	4.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	4.8000	4.8700	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3600	1.3600	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	5
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.1
H	4
R	2
ER	2
BB	1
SO	5
HR	0
BF	20
Pitches	82

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	24
Pitching_ER	6
Pitching_ERA	5.04
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	4
Pitching_H	8
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	4.1
Pitching_Pitches	98
Pitching_R	6
Pitching_SO	7
Pitching_Strikes	66
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_ATL@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	607536
playerID	607536
playerName	Kyle Freeland
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	COL
teamID	9

Jimmy Herget (623474) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 14

All-history rows before 20260509: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.643	2.000	-0.643	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.971	1.000	0.229	0.200
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.143	2.000	-1.143	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	7.000	11.000	1.000	9.000	2.000	12.6000	2.4000	1.4000	2.2000	0.2000	1.8000	0.4000
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	9.000	15.000	3.000	11.000	2.000	7.5938	1.6875	0.8438	1.4062	0.2812	1.0312	0.1875
season	0.20	14	15.000	9.000	17.000	3.000	16.000	2.000	5.4000	1.3333	0.6000	1.1333	0.2000	1.0667	0.1333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2280
predicted_ER	1.0450
predicted_ERA	9.4078
predicted_H	1.7090
predicted_HR	0.2720
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.3840
predicted_WHIP	1.9373

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.2280	0.4982	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	1.0450	0.6793	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	9.4078	9.4078	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	1.7090	1.8109	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2720	0.1768	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.0000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.3840	0.8996	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.9373	1.9373	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	2
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	5.40
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	2
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	20
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	14
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_decision	BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	623474
playerID	623474
playerName	Jimmy Herget
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	COL
teamID	9

Antonio Senzatela (622608) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 11

All-history rows before 20260509: 11

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.273	0.000	0.727	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.936	2.000	-0.936	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	2.000	2.000	-2.000	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	10.000	2.000	6.000	4.000	5.000	1.8000	1.0000	0.2000	0.6000	0.4000	0.5000
last_10	0.35	10	21.200	3.000	12.000	6.000	19.000	1.2462	0.8308	0.1385	0.5538	0.2769	0.8769
season	0.20	11	24.100	3.000	13.000	7.000	22.000	1.1096	0.8219	0.1233	0.5343	0.2877	0.9041

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6910
predicted_ER	0.3370
predicted_ERA	1.4681
predicted_H	1.1790
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	2.0000
predicted_SO	1.4730
predicted_WHIP	0.9052

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.6910	0.7992	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.3370	0.5691	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.4681	1.4681	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.1790	1.1164	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	2.0000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.4730	0.9575	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9052	0.9052	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	8
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.11
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	23
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	622608
playerID	622608
playerName	Antonio Senzatela
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	COL
teamID	9

Juan Mejia (675848) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 16

All-history rows before 20260509: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.625	0.000	-0.625	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.062	1.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.562	1.000	0.438	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	12.000	1.000	3.0000	1.3333	0.3333	0.6667	0.6667	2.0000	0.1667
last_10	0.35	10	12.000	5.000	13.000	5.000	21.000	1.000	3.7500	1.5000	0.4167	1.0833	0.4167	1.7500	0.0833
season	0.20	16	19.100	10.000	22.000	9.000	25.000	2.000	4.6552	1.6034	0.5172	1.1379	0.4655	1.2931	0.1035

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.7190
predicted_ER	0.5320
predicted_ERA	3.5935
predicted_H	1.2090
predicted_HR	0.1660
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	2.3610
predicted_WHIP	1.4457

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.7190	0.4673	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5320	0.3458	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.5935	3.5935	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.2090	0.7859	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1660	0.1079	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.1000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	2.3610	2.2347	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4457	1.4457	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.66
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	675848
playerID	675848
playerName	Juan Mejia
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	COL
teamID	9

Victor Vodnik (680767) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 14

All-history rows before 20260509: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.786	0.000	0.214	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.086	2.000	-0.086	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	2.000	-1.000	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	7.000	6.000	4.000	8.000	1.000	11.1176	1.7647	1.2353	1.0588	0.7059	1.4118	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	11.200	9.000	12.000	9.000	10.000	1.000	6.9429	1.8000	0.7714	1.0286	0.7714	0.8571	0.0857
season	0.20	14	15.200	11.000	19.000	9.000	14.000	2.000	6.3191	1.7872	0.7021	1.2128	0.5745	0.8936	0.1277

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.7850
predicted_ER	1.0790
predicted_ERA	8.6968
predicted_H	1.2050
predicted_HR	0.1510
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.2440
predicted_WHIP	1.7816

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.7850	1.2103	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	1.0790	1.0514	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	8.6968	8.6968	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	1.2050	1.4832	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1510	0.0982	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.2440	0.8086	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.7816	1.7816	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	2
SO	0
HR	0
BF	7
Pitches	34

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	6.32
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	20
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	680767
playerID	680767
playerName	Victor Vodnik
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	COL
teamID	9

Home Team: PHI

Edmundo Sosa (624641) · BATTER · LF · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 15

All-history rows before 20260509: 15

System season_avg: 0.2310

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2308

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.467	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.467	5.000	1.533	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.239	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.231	0.000	-0.231	0.000
predicted_BB	0.067	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.810	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.800	0.000	-0.800	0.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.242	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.245	0.000	-0.245	0.000
predicted_R	0.267	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.267	0.000	-0.267	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.460	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.467	0.000	-0.467	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.272	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.346	0.000	-0.346	0.000
predicted_SO	0.733	3.000	3.000	Hitting_SO	0.733	0.000	2.267	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.467	-
predicted_AVG	0.239	-
predicted_BB	0.067	-
predicted_H	0.810	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.242	-
predicted_R	0.267	-
predicted_RBI	0.460	-
predicted_SLG	0.272	-
predicted_SO	0.733	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.122	-0.078
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.630	0.163
predicted_AVG	0.239	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.033	-0.035
predicted_H	0.860	0.050
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.013	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.242	-0.000
predicted_R	0.288	0.021
predicted_RBI	0.486	0.026
predicted_SLG	0.272	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.691	-0.042

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.63), rates preserved: AVG=0.237 HR/AB=0.003

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=12.0, BvP AVG=0.333)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	0.2500	0.2500	0.2500	0.2500	0.0000	0.1500	0.0000	0.1500
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	8.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	7.000	0.2286	0.2286	0.2571	0.2286	0.0000	0.1143	0.0000	0.2000
season	0.20	15	-	52.000	12.000	3.000	1.000	7.000	4.000	1.000	11.000	0.2308	0.2453	0.3462	0.2308	0.0192	0.1346	0.0192	0.2115

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0800
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7180
predicted_AVG	0.2387
predicted_BB	0.0140
predicted_H	0.8870
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0140
predicted_OBP	0.2416
predicted_R	0.2990
predicted_RBI	0.5000
predicted_SLG	0.2717
predicted_SO	0.6690

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.0800	0.1220	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4670	3.7180	3.6301	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2390	0.2387	0.2388	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0670	0.0140	0.0325	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8100	0.8870	0.8600	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0140	0.0126	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2420	0.2416	0.2417	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2670	0.2990	0.2878	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4600	0.5000	0.4860	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2720	0.2717	0.2718	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7330	0.6690	0.6914	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.231

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260508_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	624641
playerID	624641
playerName	Edmundo Sosa
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	PHI
teamID	21

Trea Turner (607208) · BATTER · SS · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 38

All-history rows before 20260509: 38

System season_avg: 0.2260

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2264

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.184	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.184	0.000	-0.184	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.600	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.184	6.000	-0.184	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.180	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.226	0.000	0.024	0.250
predicted_BB	0.316	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.316	0.000	0.684	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.830	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.947	0.000	0.053	1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.105	0.000	-0.105	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.191	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.281	0.000	0.119	0.400
predicted_R	0.605	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.605	0.000	-0.605	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.260	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.316	0.000	-0.316	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.079	0.000	-0.079	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.262	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.346	0.000	-0.096	0.250
predicted_SO	0.947	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.947	2.000	-0.947	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.184	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.600	-
predicted_AVG	0.180	-
predicted_BB	0.316	-
predicted_H	0.830	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.191	-
predicted_R	0.605	-
predicted_RBI	0.260	-
predicted_SLG	0.262	-
predicted_SO	0.947	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.193	0.009
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.546	-0.054
predicted_AVG	0.180	0.000
predicted_BB	0.155	-0.161
predicted_H	0.819	-0.011
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.058	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.191	-0.000
predicted_R	0.568	-0.037
predicted_RBI	0.260	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.262	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.157	0.210

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 5 (raw=4.60), rates preserved: AVG=0.178 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	5.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=40.0, BvP AVG=0.300)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 4.600

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	23.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	0.000	7.000	0.1304	0.1304	0.1739	0.1304	0.0000	0.0435	0.0000	0.3044
last_10	0.35	10	-	46.000	10.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	7.000	0.000	13.000	0.2174	0.2174	0.3261	0.2174	0.0217	0.0652	0.0000	0.2826
season	0.20	38	-	159.000	36.000	7.000	4.000	12.000	23.000	12.000	36.000	0.2264	0.2807	0.3459	0.2264	0.0252	0.0755	0.0755	0.2264

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1970
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.5170
predicted_AVG	0.1800
predicted_BB	0.0680
predicted_H	0.8130
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0570
predicted_OBP	0.1909
predicted_R	0.5480
predicted_RBI	0.2600
predicted_SLG	0.2616
predicted_SO	1.2700

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1840	0.1970	0.1925	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.6000	4.5170	4.5461	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1800	0.1800	0.1800	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3160	0.0680	0.1548	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8300	0.8130	0.8189	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0570	0.0580	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1910	0.1909	0.1909	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6050	0.5480	0.5679	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2600	0.2600	0.2600	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2620	0.2616	0.2617	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9470	1.2700	1.1569	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.226

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	6
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260508_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	607208
playerID	607208
playerName	Trea Turner
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	PHI
teamID	21

J.T. Realmuto (592663) · BATTER · C · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 21

All-history rows before 20260509: 21

System season_avg: 0.2600

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2603

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.190	1.000	-0.190	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.476	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.476	5.000	0.524	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.261	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.260	0.200	0.240	0.300
predicted_BB	0.238	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.238	0.000	-0.238	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.840	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.905	1.000	1.095	1.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.048	0.000	-0.048	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.273	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.321	0.200	0.179	0.300
predicted_R	0.333	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.381	1.000	0.619	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.347	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.356	0.400	0.144	0.100
predicted_SO	0.619	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.619	1.000	-0.619	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.190	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.476	-
predicted_AVG	0.261	-
predicted_BB	0.238	-
predicted_H	0.840	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.273	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.500	-
predicted_SLG	0.347	-
predicted_SO	0.619	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.251	0.061
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.576	0.100
predicted_AVG	0.261	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.116	-0.122
predicted_H	0.909	0.069
predicted_HBP	0.020	-
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.273	-0.000
predicted_R	0.344	0.011
predicted_RBI	0.545	0.045
predicted_SLG	0.347	0.000
predicted_SO	0.483	-0.136

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.58), rates preserved: AVG=0.254 HR/AB=0.003

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=21.0, BvP AVG=0.143)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	0.2632	0.2632	0.3684	0.2632	0.0000	0.2105	0.0000	0.1053
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	9.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	3.000	0.000	3.000	0.2571	0.2571	0.3143	0.2571	0.0000	0.1143	0.0000	0.0857
season	0.20	21	-	73.000	19.000	4.000	1.000	8.000	7.000	5.000	13.000	0.2603	0.3210	0.3562	0.2603	0.0137	0.1096	0.0685	0.1781

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2840
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.6300
predicted_AVG	0.2605
predicted_BB	0.0500
predicted_H	0.9460
predicted_HBP	0.0200
predicted_HR	0.0100
predicted_OBP	0.2726
predicted_R	0.3500
predicted_RBI	0.5690
predicted_SLG	0.3470
predicted_SO	0.4100

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1900	0.2840	0.2511	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4760	3.6300	3.5761	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2610	0.2605	0.2607	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2380	0.0500	0.1158	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8400	0.9460	0.9089	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0200	0.0200	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0100	0.0100	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2730	0.2726	0.2727	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.3500	0.3440	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5000	0.5690	0.5448	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3470	0.3470	0.3470	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6190	0.4100	0.4831	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.26

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260508_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	592663
playerID	592663
playerName	J.T. Realmuto
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	PHI
teamID	21

Brandon Marsh (669016) · BATTER · CF · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 32

All-history rows before 20260509: 32

System season_avg: 0.3330

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3333

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.188	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.188	0.000	-0.188	0.000
predicted_3B	0.031	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.031	0.000	-0.031	0.000
predicted_AB	3.844	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.844	3.000	1.156	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.413	0.200	0.200	Hitting_AVG	0.333	0.333	-0.133	-0.133
predicted_BB	0.188	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.188	2.000	-0.188	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.281	1.000	-0.281	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.457	0.200	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.364	0.600	-0.164	-0.400
predicted_R	0.594	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.594	2.000	-0.594	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.480	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.625	1.000	-0.625	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.094	0.000	-0.094	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.526	0.200	0.200	Hitting_SLG	0.496	0.333	-0.296	-0.133
predicted_SO	0.750	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.750	0.000	1.250	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.188	-
predicted_3B	0.031	-
predicted_AB	3.844	-
predicted_AVG	0.413	-
predicted_BB	0.188	-
predicted_H	1.500	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.457	-
predicted_R	0.594	-
predicted_RBI	0.480	-
predicted_SLG	0.526	-
predicted_SO	0.750	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.137	-0.051
predicted_3B	0.095	0.064
predicted_AB	3.902	0.058
predicted_AVG	0.413	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.274	0.086
predicted_H	1.581	0.081
predicted_HBP	0.042	-
predicted_HR	0.024	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.457	-0.000
predicted_R	0.723	0.129
predicted_RBI	0.504	0.024
predicted_SLG	0.526	0.000
predicted_SO	0.638	-0.112

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.90), rates preserved: AVG=0.405 HR/AB=0.006

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	2.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	2.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.844

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	9.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	0.4500	0.5000	0.5500	0.4500	0.0000	0.1000	0.1000	0.1000
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	16.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	6.000	9.000	3.000	7.000	0.4103	0.4545	0.5128	0.4103	0.0000	0.1538	0.0769	0.1795
season	0.20	32	-	123.000	41.000	6.000	1.000	4.000	20.000	19.000	6.000	24.000	0.3333	0.3636	0.4959	0.3333	0.0325	0.1626	0.0488	0.1951

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1090
predicted_3B	0.1300
predicted_AB	3.9340
predicted_AVG	0.4128
predicted_BB	0.3210
predicted_H	1.6240
predicted_HBP	0.0420
predicted_HR	0.0260
predicted_OBP	0.4568
predicted_R	0.7930
predicted_RBI	0.5170
predicted_SLG	0.5262
predicted_SO	0.5780

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1880	0.1090	0.1366	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0310	0.1300	0.0954	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8440	3.9340	3.9025	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.4130	0.4128	0.4129	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1880	0.3210	0.2744	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.5000	1.6240	1.5806	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0420	0.0420	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0260	0.0239	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4570	0.4568	0.4569	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5940	0.7930	0.7234	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4800	0.5170	0.5040	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5260	0.5262	0.5261	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7500	0.5780	0.6382	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.333

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	1
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260508_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	669016
playerID	669016
playerName	Brandon Marsh
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	PHI
teamID	21

Alec Bohm (664761) · BATTER · 3B · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 34

All-history rows before 20260509: 34

System season_avg: 0.1600

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1600

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.088	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.088	0.000	-0.088	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.676	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.676	2.000	-0.676	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.145	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.160	0.000	0.173	0.333
predicted_BB	0.294	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.294	0.000	0.706	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.470	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.588	0.000	0.412	1.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.216	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.229	0.000	0.271	0.500
predicted_R	0.206	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.206	0.000	-0.206	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.441	0.000	-0.441	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.164	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.208	0.000	0.125	0.333
predicted_SO	0.618	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.618	0.000	1.382	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.088	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.676	-
predicted_AVG	0.145	-
predicted_BB	0.294	-
predicted_H	0.470	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.216	-
predicted_R	0.206	-
predicted_RBI	0.290	-
predicted_SLG	0.164	-
predicted_SO	0.618	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.063	-0.025
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.542	-0.134
predicted_AVG	0.145	0.000
predicted_BB	0.308	0.014
predicted_H	0.491	0.021
predicted_HBP	0.011	-
predicted_HR	0.007	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.216	-0.000
predicted_R	0.182	-0.024
predicted_RBI	0.304	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.164	0.000
predicted_SO	0.547	-0.071

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.68), rates preserved: AVG=0.134 HR/AB=0.002

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=14.0, BvP AVG=0.214)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	0.1250	0.2222	0.1250	0.1250	0.0000	0.0625	0.1250	0.1250
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	0.1622	0.2000	0.1892	0.1622	0.0000	0.1081	0.0541	0.1622
season	0.20	34	-	125.000	20.000	3.000	1.000	15.000	7.000	10.000	21.000	0.1600	0.2286	0.2080	0.1600	0.0080	0.1200	0.0800	0.1680

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0490
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.4700
predicted_AVG	0.1450
predicted_BB	0.3160
predicted_H	0.5030
predicted_HBP	0.0110
predicted_HR	0.0060
predicted_OBP	0.2157
predicted_R	0.1690
predicted_RBI	0.3120
predicted_SLG	0.1641
predicted_SO	0.5090

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0880	0.0490	0.0626	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6760	3.4700	3.5421	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1450	0.1450	0.1450	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2940	0.3160	0.3083	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4700	0.5030	0.4914	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0110	0.0110	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0060	0.0074	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2160	0.2157	0.2158	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2060	0.1690	0.1820	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2900	0.3120	0.3043	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1640	0.1641	0.1641	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6180	0.5090	0.5472	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260506_OAK@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	664761
playerID	664761
playerName	Alec Bohm
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	PHI
teamID	21

Adolis García (666969) · BATTER · RF · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 37

All-history rows before 20260509: 37

System season_avg: 0.2340

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2336

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.135	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.135	0.000	-0.135	0.000
predicted_3B	0.027	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_AB	3.750	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.703	4.000	0.297	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.257	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.234	0.000	0.266	0.500
predicted_BB	0.351	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.351	1.000	0.649	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.970	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.865	0.000	1.135	2.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.081	0.000	-0.081	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.318	0.600	0.600	Hitting_OBP	0.305	0.200	0.295	0.400
predicted_R	0.324	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.324	1.000	0.676	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.450	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	0.324	0.000	1.676	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.389	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.350	0.000	0.150	0.500
predicted_SO	1.081	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.081	2.000	-1.081	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.135	-
predicted_3B	0.027	-
predicted_AB	3.750	-
predicted_AVG	0.257	-
predicted_BB	0.351	-
predicted_H	0.970	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.318	-
predicted_R	0.324	-
predicted_RBI	0.450	-
predicted_SLG	0.389	-
predicted_SO	1.081	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.088	-0.047
predicted_3B	0.013	-0.014
predicted_AB	3.770	0.020
predicted_AVG	0.257	0.000
predicted_BB	0.376	0.025
predicted_H	0.972	0.002
predicted_HBP	0.011	-
predicted_HR	0.141	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.318	0.000
predicted_R	0.467	0.143
predicted_RBI	0.453	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.389	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.052	-0.029

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.77), rates preserved: AVG=0.258 HR/AB=0.037

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, BvP AVG=0.167)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	6.000	0.2632	0.3182	0.4211	0.2632	0.0526	0.1053	0.1053	0.3158
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	10.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	6.000	4.000	8.000	0.2632	0.3256	0.3684	0.2632	0.0263	0.1579	0.1053	0.2105
season	0.20	37	-	137.000	32.000	5.000	1.000	3.000	12.000	12.000	13.000	40.000	0.2336	0.3052	0.3504	0.2336	0.0219	0.0876	0.0949	0.2920

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0620
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.7810
predicted_AVG	0.2573
predicted_BB	0.3900
predicted_H	0.9730
predicted_HBP	0.0110
predicted_HR	0.1410
predicted_OBP	0.3182
predicted_R	0.5440
predicted_RBI	0.4540
predicted_SLG	0.3885
predicted_SO	1.0370

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1350	0.0620	0.0876	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0270	0.0060	0.0134	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7500	3.7810	3.7702	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2570	0.2573	0.2572	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3510	0.3900	0.3763	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9700	0.9730	0.9719	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0110	0.0110	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1410	0.1406	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3180	0.3182	0.3181	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3240	0.5440	0.4670	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4500	0.4540	0.4526	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3890	0.3885	0.3887	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0810	1.0370	1.0524	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.234

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260508_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	666969
playerID	666969
playerName	Adolis García
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	PHI
teamID	21

Kyle Schwarber (656941) · BATTER · DH · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 39

All-history rows before 20260509: 39

System season_avg: 0.2140

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2138

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.179	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.179	0.000	-0.179	0.000
predicted_3B	0.026	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_AB	3.850	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.718	6.000	-0.718	-3.000
predicted_AVG	0.221	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.214	0.167	-0.214	-0.167
predicted_BB	0.667	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.667	0.000	0.333	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.850	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.795	1.000	-0.795	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.292	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.349	0.167	0.051	0.233
predicted_R	0.641	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.641	1.000	-0.641	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.564	1.000	-0.564	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.561	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.545	0.667	-0.545	-0.667
predicted_SO	1.436	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.436	4.000	-1.436	-4.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.179	-
predicted_3B	0.026	-
predicted_AB	3.850	-
predicted_AVG	0.221	-
predicted_BB	0.667	-
predicted_H	0.850	-
predicted_HR	0.360	-
predicted_OBP	0.292	-
predicted_R	0.641	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.561	-
predicted_SO	1.436	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.213	0.035
predicted_3B	0.013	-0.013
predicted_AB	4.028	0.178
predicted_AVG	0.221	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.502	-0.165
predicted_H	0.890	0.040
predicted_HBP	0.023	-
predicted_HR	0.378	0.018
predicted_OBP	0.292	0.000
predicted_R	0.646	0.005
predicted_RBI	0.462	0.022
predicted_SLG	0.561	0.000
predicted_SO	1.524	0.088

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.03), rates preserved: AVG=0.221 HR/AB=0.094

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=17.0, BvP AVG=0.118)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.850

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	22.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	8.000	0.1818	0.2174	0.5000	0.1818	0.0909	0.0909	0.0454	0.3636
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	11.000	3.000	0.000	4.000	5.000	7.000	5.000	16.000	0.2750	0.3556	0.6500	0.2750	0.1000	0.1250	0.1250	0.4000
season	0.20	39	-	145.000	31.000	7.000	1.000	13.000	22.000	25.000	26.000	56.000	0.2138	0.3486	0.5448	0.2138	0.0897	0.1517	0.1793	0.3862

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2320
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	4.1240
predicted_AVG	0.2208
predicted_BB	0.4130
predicted_H	0.9110
predicted_HBP	0.0230
predicted_HR	0.3870
predicted_OBP	0.2920
predicted_R	0.6480
predicted_RBI	0.4740
predicted_SLG	0.5615
predicted_SO	1.5710

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1790	0.2320	0.2135	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0260	0.0060	0.0130	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8500	4.1240	4.0281	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2210	0.2208	0.2209	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6670	0.4130	0.5019	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8500	0.9110	0.8897	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0230	0.0230	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3600	0.3870	0.3775	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2920	0.2920	0.2920	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6410	0.6480	0.6456	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.4740	0.4621	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5610	0.5615	0.5613	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4360	1.5710	1.5237	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.214

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	6
Hitting_AVG	0.167
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	4
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260508_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	656941
playerID	656941
playerName	Kyle Schwarber
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	PHI
teamID	21

Bryson Stott (681082) · BATTER · 2B · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 29

All-history rows before 20260509: 29

System season_avg: 0.2060

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2056

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.138	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.138	1.000	-0.138	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.069	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.069	0.000	-0.069	0.000
predicted_AB	3.690	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.690	4.000	-0.690	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.196	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.206	0.250	-0.206	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.241	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.241	1.000	-0.241	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.610	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.759	1.000	-0.759	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.260	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.103	0.000	-0.103	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.248	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.261	0.400	-0.261	-0.400
predicted_R	0.345	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.345	1.000	0.655	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.940	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.483	2.000	0.517	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.207	0.000	-0.207	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.547	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.364	0.500	-0.364	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.690	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.690	1.000	-0.690	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.138	-
predicted_3B	0.069	-
predicted_AB	3.690	-
predicted_AVG	0.196	-
predicted_BB	0.241	-
predicted_H	0.610	-
predicted_HR	0.260	-
predicted_OBP	0.248	-
predicted_R	0.345	-
predicted_RBI	0.940	-
predicted_SLG	0.547	-
predicted_SO	0.690	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.227	0.089
predicted_3B	0.057	-0.012
predicted_AB	3.679	-0.011
predicted_AVG	0.196	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.244	0.003
predicted_H	0.681	0.071
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.289	0.029
predicted_OBP	0.248	-0.000
predicted_R	0.478	0.133
predicted_RBI	1.050	0.110
predicted_SLG	0.547	0.000
predicted_SO	0.715	0.025

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.69), rates preserved: AVG=0.184 HR/AB=0.078

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	1.000	1.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	7.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	0.2105	0.2500	0.6316	0.2105	0.1053	0.3684	0.0526	0.1579
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	11.000	6.000	3.000	9.000	0.1714	0.2368	0.5429	0.1714	0.0857	0.3143	0.0857	0.2571
season	0.20	29	-	107.000	22.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	14.000	10.000	7.000	20.000	0.2056	0.2609	0.3645	0.2056	0.0280	0.1308	0.0654	0.1869

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2750
predicted_3B	0.0500
predicted_AB	3.6730
predicted_AVG	0.1958
predicted_BB	0.2450
predicted_H	0.7190
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.3050
predicted_OBP	0.2476
predicted_R	0.5500
predicted_RBI	1.1090
predicted_SLG	0.5471
predicted_SO	0.7290

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1380	0.2750	0.2271	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0690	0.0500	0.0567	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6900	3.6730	3.6790	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1960	0.1958	0.1959	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2410	0.2450	0.2436	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6100	0.7190	0.6808	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2600	0.3050	0.2893	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2480	0.2476	0.2477	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3450	0.5500	0.4783	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.9400	1.1090	1.0498	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5470	0.5471	0.5471	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6900	0.7290	0.7153	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	1
HBP	0
season_avg	0.206

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260508_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	681082
playerID	681082
playerName	Bryson Stott
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	PHI
teamID	21

Bryce Harper (547180) · BATTER · 1B · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 39

All-history rows before 20260509: 39

System season_avg: 0.2820

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2817

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.231	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.231	0.000	-0.231	0.000
predicted_3B	0.026	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_AB	3.790	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.641	4.000	0.359	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.381	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.282	0.500	0.218	0.000
predicted_BB	0.590	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.590	2.000	0.410	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_H	1.440	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	1.026	2.000	0.974	0.000
predicted_HR	0.470	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.231	0.000	-0.231	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.496	0.600	0.600	Hitting_OBP	0.380	0.667	0.220	-0.067
predicted_R	0.615	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.615	1.000	0.385	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.680	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.590	0.000	-0.590	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.051	0.000	-0.051	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.823	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.549	0.500	-0.049	0.000
predicted_SO	0.641	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.641	0.000	-0.641	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.231	-
predicted_3B	0.026	-
predicted_AB	3.790	-
predicted_AVG	0.381	-
predicted_BB	0.590	-
predicted_H	1.440	-
predicted_HR	0.470	-
predicted_OBP	0.496	-
predicted_R	0.615	-
predicted_RBI	0.680	-
predicted_SLG	0.823	-
predicted_SO	0.641	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.237	0.006
predicted_3B	0.012	-0.014
predicted_AB	3.568	-0.222
predicted_AVG	0.381	0.000
predicted_BB	0.724	0.134
predicted_H	1.359	-0.081
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.440	-0.030
predicted_OBP	0.496	-0.000
predicted_R	0.832	0.217
predicted_RBI	0.640	-0.040
predicted_SLG	0.823	0.000
predicted_SO	0.395	-0.246

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.359 HR/AB=0.116

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=30.0, BvP AVG=0.233)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	8.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	6.000	4.000	0.000	0.4706	0.5714	1.0588	0.4706	0.1765	0.2353	0.2353	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	11.000	3.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	8.000	9.000	4.000	0.3235	0.4651	0.6765	0.3235	0.0882	0.1177	0.2647	0.1177
season	0.20	39	-	142.000	40.000	9.000	1.000	9.000	23.000	24.000	23.000	25.000	0.2817	0.3795	0.5493	0.2817	0.0634	0.1620	0.1620	0.1761

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2410
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.4480
predicted_AVG	0.3813
predicted_BB	0.7960
predicted_H	1.3150
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.4240
predicted_OBP	0.4958
predicted_R	0.9480
predicted_RBI	0.6190
predicted_SLG	0.8231
predicted_SO	0.2630

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2310	0.2410	0.2375	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0260	0.0050	0.0123	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7900	3.4480	3.5677	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3810	0.3813	0.3812	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5900	0.7960	0.7239	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.4400	1.3150	1.3588	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.4700	0.4240	0.4401	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4960	0.4958	0.4959	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6150	0.9480	0.8315	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6800	0.6190	0.6403	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.8230	0.8231	0.8231	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6410	0.2630	0.3953	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.282

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260508_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	547180
playerID	547180
playerName	Bryce Harper
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	PHI
teamID	21

Aaron Nola (605400) · PITCHER · Starter · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 7

All-history rows before 20260509: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_ER	3.000	0.000	0.000	3.000
predicted_IP	2.200	2.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.200	6.000	-3.000	-3.800
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	-	Pitching_SO	5.714	5.000	-0.714	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 2.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	26.000	17.000	31.000	10.000	24.000	4.000	5.8846	1.5769	0.6539	1.1923	0.3846	0.9231	0.1538
last_10	0.35	7	37.100	21.000	41.000	13.000	40.000	6.000	5.0625	1.4464	0.5625	1.0982	0.3482	1.0714	0.1607
season	0.20	7	37.100	21.000	41.000	13.000	40.000	6.000	5.0625	1.4464	0.5625	1.0982	0.3482	1.0714	0.1607

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.9450
predicted_ER	3.2190
predicted_ERA	5.4324
predicted_H	6.0830
predicted_HR	0.8410
predicted_IP	5.1000
predicted_SO	5.3580
predicted_WHIP	1.5051

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	1.9450	2.3142	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	3.2190	3.1423	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.4324	5.4324	form_only
predicted_H	5.0000	6.0830	5.7040	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.8410	0.8966	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	2.2000	5.1000	4.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	5.3580	5.2327	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5051	1.5051	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.2
H	5
R	3
ER	3
BB	3
SO	5
HR	1
BF	20
Pitches	85

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	21
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.06
Pitching_Flyouts	5
Pitching_Groundouts	5
Pitching_H	5
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	94
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	5
Pitching_Strikes	61
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_PHI@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	605400
playerID	605400
playerName	Aaron Nola
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	PHI
teamID	21

Jhoan Duran (661395) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 10

All-history rows before 20260509: 10

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_IP	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.820	1.000	1.180	1.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.200	2.000	-0.200	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 2.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	6.000	1.8000	1.2000	0.2000	0.6000	0.6000	1.2000
last_10	0.35	9	8.200	2.000	7.000	3.000	12.000	2.0769	1.1538	0.2308	0.8077	0.3462	1.3846
season	0.20	9	8.200	2.000	7.000	3.000	12.000	2.0769	1.1538	0.2308	0.8077	0.3462	1.3846

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4600
predicted_ER	0.2170
predicted_ERA	1.9523
predicted_H	0.7140
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.3020
predicted_WHIP	1.1746

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4600	0.2990	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2170	0.1411	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.9523	1.9523	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7140	0.4641	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	2.0000	1.0000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.3020	1.1963	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1746	1.1746	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	10
Season rows before report date	10
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.08
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	661395
playerID	661395
playerName	Jhoan Duran
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PHI
teamID	21

Brad Keller (641745) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 17

All-history rows before 20260509: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.471	1.000	-0.471	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.912	1.000	0.188	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.059	2.000	-0.059	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	3.000	7.000	3.000	8.000	0.000	5.4000	2.0000	0.6000	1.4000	0.6000	1.6000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	4.000	9.000	4.000	12.000	1.000	3.7241	1.3448	0.4138	0.9310	0.4138	1.2414	0.1035
season	0.20	17	16.200	8.000	16.000	6.000	18.000	2.000	4.3200	1.3200	0.4800	0.9600	0.3600	1.0800	0.1200

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4870
predicted_ER	0.5110
predicted_ERA	4.5974
predicted_H	1.1480
predicted_HR	0.0600
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.3700
predicted_WHIP	1.6347

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4870	0.3165	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5110	0.3322	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.5974	4.5974	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.1480	1.0962	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0600	0.0390	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.0000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.3700	1.2405	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.6347	1.6347	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	4.32
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	20
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	7
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	641745
playerID	641745
playerName	Brad Keller
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PHI
teamID	21

José Alvarado (621237) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 18

All-history rows before 20260509: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.444	0.000	1.556	2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.572	1.000	0.428	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	2.000	0.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.200	0.000	5.000	2.000	7.000	0.0000	1.9091	0.0000	1.3636	0.5454	1.9091
last_10	0.35	10	8.100	1.000	10.000	4.000	11.000	1.0800	1.6800	0.1200	1.2000	0.4800	1.3200
season	0.20	18	13.100	8.000	19.000	7.000	18.000	5.4000	1.9500	0.6000	1.4250	0.5250	1.3500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3460
predicted_ER	0.1080
predicted_ERA	1.4580
predicted_H	0.8790
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	1.0610
predicted_WHIP	1.8371

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3460	0.5749	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.1080	0.7702	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.4580	1.4580	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.8790	0.9214	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0000	0.3500	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0610	1.0396	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.8371	1.8371	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	2
ER	2
BB	1
SO	1
HR	1
BF	5
Pitches	24

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.40
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	20
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	621237
playerID	621237
playerName	José Alvarado
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PHI
teamID	21

Orion Kerkering (689147) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 15

All-history rows before 20260509: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.200	0.000	-0.200
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.840	1.000	0.160
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.667	1.000	0.333

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	0.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.0000	0.7500	0.0000	0.7500	0.0000	0.5000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.200	0.000	4.000	5.000	6.000	0.000	0.0000	1.0385	0.0000	0.4615	0.5769	0.6923	0.0000
season	0.20	15	14.000	3.000	10.000	6.000	10.000	1.000	1.9286	1.1429	0.2143	0.7143	0.4286	0.7143	0.0714

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2440
predicted_ER	0.0360
predicted_ERA	0.3857
predicted_H	0.5460
predicted_HR	0.0120
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.5190
predicted_WHIP	0.9296

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.2440	0.5086	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.0360	0.0234	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.3857	0.3857	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.5460	0.7049	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0120	0.0078	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.5190	0.6874	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9296	0.9296	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.93
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	689147
playerID	689147
playerName	Orion Kerkering
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PHI
teamID	21

Tanner Banks (621383) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 15

All-history rows before 20260509: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.733	2.000	0.267	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.900	1.100	0.100	-0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.200	2.000	-0.200	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	3.000	10.000	3.000	7.000	0.000	5.4000	2.6000	0.6000	2.0000	0.6000	1.4000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	8.000	19.000	9.000	13.000	1.000	7.2000	2.8000	0.8000	1.9000	0.9000	1.3000	0.1000
season	0.20	14	14.200	9.000	23.000	9.000	18.000	1.000	5.5227	2.1818	0.6136	1.5682	0.6136	1.2273	0.0682

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.7080
predicted_ER	0.6730
predicted_ERA	6.0545
predicted_H	1.8790
predicted_HR	0.0490
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.3300
predicted_WHIP	2.5864

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.7080	0.8102	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.6730	0.7874	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	6.0545	6.0545	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	1.8790	1.9213	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0490	0.0319	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.3300	1.2145	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	2.5864	2.5864	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	9
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	6.75
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	35
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	23
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_OAK@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	621383
playerID	621383
playerName	Tanner Banks
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PHI
teamID	21

20260509_DET@KC

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "confidence": 0.57325, "home_win_probability": 0.57325, "away_win_probability": 0.42674999999999996, "predicted_score_text": "DET 3 - 4 KC", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to final winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration.", "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score", "final_prediction_synced": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "DET 3 - 4 KC", "winner": "KC"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "DET 3 - 4 KC", "winner": "KC"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"}}

Away Team: DET

Matt Vierling (663837) · BATTER · CF · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 22

All-history rows before 20260509: 22

System season_avg: 0.2340

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2338

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.364	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.364	1.000	-0.364	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.660	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	4.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.249	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.234	0.250	-0.234	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.318	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.318	0.000	0.682	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.910	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.818	1.000	-0.818	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.045	0.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.325	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.294	0.250	-0.044	0.000
predicted_R	0.364	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.364	0.000	-0.364	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.730	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.545	0.000	-0.545	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.045	0.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.462	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.377	0.500	-0.377	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.591	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.591	0.000	0.409	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.364	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.660	-
predicted_AVG	0.249	-
predicted_BB	0.318	-
predicted_H	0.910	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.325	-
predicted_R	0.364	-
predicted_RBI	0.730	-
predicted_SLG	0.462	-
predicted_SO	0.591	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.360	-0.004
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.608	-0.052
predicted_AVG	0.249	0.000
predicted_BB	0.383	0.065
predicted_H	0.899	-0.011
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.136	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.325	-0.000
predicted_R	0.383	0.019
predicted_RBI	0.719	-0.011
predicted_SLG	0.462	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.515	-0.076

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.66), rates preserved: AVG=0.246 HR/AB=0.037

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	5.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	0.2778	0.3500	0.5556	0.2778	0.0556	0.2222	0.1111	0.1111
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	8.000	3.000	1.000	7.000	4.000	5.000	5.000	0.2222	0.3095	0.3889	0.2222	0.0278	0.1944	0.1389	0.1389
season	0.20	22	-	77.000	18.000	8.000	1.000	12.000	8.000	7.000	13.000	0.2338	0.2941	0.3766	0.2338	0.0130	0.1558	0.0909	0.1688

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3580
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.5800
predicted_AVG	0.2495
predicted_BB	0.4180
predicted_H	0.8930
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1340
predicted_OBP	0.3246
predicted_R	0.3930
predicted_RBI	0.7130
predicted_SLG	0.4615
predicted_SO	0.4740

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3640	0.3580	0.3601	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6600	3.5800	3.6080	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2490	0.2495	0.2493	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3180	0.4180	0.3830	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9100	0.8930	0.8990	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1340	0.1361	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3250	0.3246	0.3247	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3640	0.3930	0.3829	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7300	0.7130	0.7189	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4620	0.4615	0.4617	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5910	0.4740	0.5150	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.234

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260508_DET@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	663837
playerID	663837
playerName	Matt Vierling
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	DET
teamID	10

Dillon Dingler (693307) · BATTER · DH · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 29

All-history rows before 20260509: 29

System season_avg: 0.2430

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2432

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.207	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.207	0.000	-0.207	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.828	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.828	4.000	0.172	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.202	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.243	0.000	-0.243	0.000
predicted_BB	0.241	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.241	0.000	-0.241	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.750	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.931	0.000	-0.931	0.000
predicted_HR	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.207	0.000	-0.207	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.229	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.311	0.000	-0.311	0.000
predicted_R	0.448	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.448	1.000	-0.448	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.870	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.862	0.000	-0.862	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.380	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.459	0.000	-0.459	0.000
predicted_SO	0.759	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.759	1.000	-0.759	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.207	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.828	-
predicted_AVG	0.202	-
predicted_BB	0.241	-
predicted_H	0.750	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.229	-
predicted_R	0.448	-
predicted_RBI	0.870	-
predicted_SLG	0.380	-
predicted_SO	0.759	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.203	-0.004
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.895	0.067
predicted_AVG	0.202	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.162	-0.079
predicted_H	0.777	0.027
predicted_HBP	0.028	-
predicted_HR	0.164	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.229	0.000
predicted_R	0.377	-0.071
predicted_RBI	0.902	0.032
predicted_SLG	0.380	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.838	0.079

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.90), rates preserved: AVG=0.200 HR/AB=0.042

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, BvP AVG=0.100)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.828

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	5.000	0.2000	0.2000	0.4000	0.2000	0.0500	0.3000	0.0000	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	6.000	2.000	2.000	8.000	0.1795	0.2195	0.3077	0.1795	0.0256	0.1538	0.0513	0.2051
season	0.20	29	-	111.000	27.000	6.000	6.000	25.000	13.000	7.000	22.000	0.2432	0.3115	0.4595	0.2432	0.0541	0.2252	0.0631	0.1982

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2010
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.9310
predicted_AVG	0.2015
predicted_BB	0.1200
predicted_H	0.7920
predicted_HBP	0.0280
predicted_HR	0.1660
predicted_OBP	0.2291
predicted_R	0.3390
predicted_RBI	0.9190
predicted_SLG	0.3796
predicted_SO	0.8800

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2070	0.2010	0.2031	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8280	3.9310	3.8950	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2020	0.2015	0.2017	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2410	0.1200	0.1623	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7500	0.7920	0.7773	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0280	0.0280	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.1660	0.1639	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2290	0.2291	0.2291	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4480	0.3390	0.3771	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.8700	0.9190	0.9019	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3800	0.3796	0.3797	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7590	0.8800	0.8377	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.243

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260508_DET@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	693307
playerID	693307
playerName	Dillon Dingler
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	DET
teamID	10

Colt Keith (690993) · BATTER · 3B · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 26

All-history rows before 20260509: 26

System season_avg: 0.2930

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2935

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.269	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.269	0.000	0.731	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.680	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.538	3.000	0.462	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.312	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.293	0.333	-0.043	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.192	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.192	1.000	-0.192	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.150	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.038	1.000	-0.038	0.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.394	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.337	0.500	-0.087	-0.250
predicted_R	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.030	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.154	0.000	0.846	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.038	0.000	-0.038	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.328	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.370	0.333	0.130	0.167
predicted_SO	0.808	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.808	0.000	1.192	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.269	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.680	-
predicted_AVG	0.312	-
predicted_BB	0.192	-
predicted_H	1.150	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.394	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.030	-
predicted_SLG	0.328	-
predicted_SO	0.808	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.127	-0.142
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.435	-0.245
predicted_AVG	0.312	0.000
predicted_BB	0.280	0.088
predicted_H	1.073	-0.077
predicted_HBP	0.135	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.394	0.000
predicted_R	0.508	0.008
predicted_RBI	0.029	-0.001
predicted_SLG	0.328	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.638	-0.170

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.68), rates preserved: AVG=0.291 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=20.0, BvP AVG=0.350)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 26

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	0.3750	0.4737	0.3750	0.3750	0.0000	0.1250	0.1250
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	8.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	3.000	6.000	0.2424	0.3243	0.2424	0.2424	0.0000	0.0909	0.1818
season	0.20	26	-	92.000	27.000	7.000	4.000	13.000	5.000	21.000	0.2935	0.3367	0.3696	0.2935	0.0435	0.0544	0.2283

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0500
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.3030
predicted_AVG	0.3123
predicted_BB	0.3270
predicted_H	1.0310
predicted_HBP	0.1350
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.3940
predicted_R	0.5120
predicted_RBI	0.0290
predicted_SLG	0.3275
predicted_SO	0.5470

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2690	0.0500	0.1266	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6800	3.3030	3.4349	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3120	0.3123	0.3122	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1920	0.3270	0.2797	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1500	1.0310	1.0726	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1350	0.1350	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3940	0.3940	0.3940	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.5120	0.5078	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0300	0.0290	0.0294	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3280	0.3275	0.3277	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8080	0.5470	0.6383	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	26
Season rows before report date	26
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	26
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.293

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260506_BOS@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	690993
playerID	690993
playerName	Colt Keith
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	DET
teamID	10

Zach McKinstry (656716) · BATTER · 2B · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 15

All-history rows before 20260509: 15

System season_avg: 0.1840

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1837

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.133	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.267	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.267	2.000	-0.267	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.184	0.000	-0.184	0.000
predicted_BB	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	2.000	-0.333	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.520	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.600	0.000	-0.600	0.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.276	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.259	0.500	-0.259	-0.500
predicted_R	0.133	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.251	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_SO	0.800	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.800	0.000	-0.800	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.133	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.267	-
predicted_AVG	0.180	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.520	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.276	-
predicted_R	0.133	-
predicted_RBI	0.120	-
predicted_SLG	0.251	-
predicted_SO	0.800	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.169	0.036
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.196	-0.071
predicted_AVG	0.180	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.390	0.057
predicted_H	0.551	0.031
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.012	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.276	0.000
predicted_R	0.147	0.014
predicted_RBI	0.127	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.251	0.000
predicted_SO	0.740	-0.060

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.27), rates preserved: AVG=0.169 HR/AB=0.004

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=13.0, BvP AVG=0.462)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	0.2000	0.2941	0.2667	0.2000	0.0000	0.0000	0.1333	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	8.000	0.1515	0.2632	0.2121	0.1515	0.0000	0.0606	0.1515	0.2424
season	0.20	15	-	49.000	9.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	5.000	12.000	0.1837	0.2593	0.2857	0.1837	0.0204	0.1020	0.1020	0.2449

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1880
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.1580
predicted_AVG	0.1798
predicted_BB	0.4210
predicted_H	0.5680
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0130
predicted_OBP	0.2763
predicted_R	0.1540
predicted_RBI	0.1310
predicted_SLG	0.2514
predicted_SO	0.7070

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1330	0.1880	0.1688	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2670	3.1580	3.1962	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1800	0.1798	0.1799	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.4210	0.3902	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5200	0.5680	0.5512	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0130	0.0119	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2760	0.2763	0.2762	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1330	0.1540	0.1467	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1200	0.1310	0.1271	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2510	0.2514	0.2513	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8000	0.7070	0.7395	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.184

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260506_BOS@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	656716
playerID	656716
playerName	Zach McKinstry
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	DET
teamID	10

Kerry Carpenter (681481) · BATTER · RF · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 26

All-history rows before 20260509: 26

System season_avg: 0.2120

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2118

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.077	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_3B	0.077	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_AB	3.269	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.269	2.000	0.731	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.161	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.212	0.000	0.038	0.250
predicted_BB	0.346	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.346	0.000	-0.346	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.490	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.692	0.000	0.308	1.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.192	0.000	-0.192	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.217	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.299	0.000	-0.049	0.250
predicted_R	0.346	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.346	0.000	0.654	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.538	0.000	-0.538	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.351	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.459	0.000	-0.209	0.250
predicted_SO	1.308	3.000	3.000	Hitting_SO	1.308	1.000	1.692	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.077	-
predicted_3B	0.077	-
predicted_AB	3.269	-
predicted_AVG	0.161	-
predicted_BB	0.346	-
predicted_H	0.490	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.217	-
predicted_R	0.346	-
predicted_RBI	0.200	-
predicted_SLG	0.351	-
predicted_SO	1.308	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.061	-0.016
predicted_3B	0.141	0.064
predicted_AB	3.292	0.023
predicted_AVG	0.161	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.247	-0.099
predicted_H	0.517	0.027
predicted_HBP	0.052	-
predicted_HR	0.073	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.217	0.000
predicted_R	0.374	0.028
predicted_RBI	0.211	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.351	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.309	0.001

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.29), rates preserved: AVG=0.157 HR/AB=0.022

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=17.0, BvP AVG=0.235)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 26

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	7.000	0.1176	0.1667	0.2353	0.1177	0.0000	0.0000	0.0588	0.4118
last_10	0.35	10	-	32.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	1.000	12.000	0.1875	0.2353	0.4375	0.1875	0.0312	0.0938	0.0312	0.3750
season	0.20	26	-	85.000	18.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	14.000	9.000	9.000	34.000	0.2118	0.2990	0.4588	0.2118	0.0588	0.1647	0.1059	0.4000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0520
predicted_3B	0.1750
predicted_AB	3.3040
predicted_AVG	0.1609
predicted_BB	0.1940
predicted_H	0.5320
predicted_HBP	0.0520
predicted_HR	0.0750
predicted_OBP	0.2172
predicted_R	0.3890
predicted_RBI	0.2170
predicted_SLG	0.3508
predicted_SO	1.3100

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0770	0.0520	0.0607	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0770	0.1750	0.1407	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2690	3.3040	3.2918	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1610	0.1609	0.1609	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3460	0.1940	0.2472	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4900	0.5320	0.5173	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0520	0.0520	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0750	0.0733	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2170	0.2172	0.2171	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3460	0.3890	0.3740	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2000	0.2170	0.2111	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3510	0.3508	0.3509	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3080	1.3100	1.3093	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	26
Season rows before report date	26
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	26
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.212

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260506_BOS@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	681481
playerID	681481
playerName	Kerry Carpenter
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	DET
teamID	10

Spencer Torkelson (679529) · BATTER · 1B · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 36

All-history rows before 20260509: 36

System season_avg: 0.2110

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2114

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.194	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.194	1.000	-0.194	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.417	2.000	2.000	Hitting_AB	3.417	4.000	-1.417	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.141	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.211	0.250	-0.211	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.611	2.000	2.000	Hitting_BB	0.611	0.000	1.389	2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_H	0.440	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.722	1.000	-0.722	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.242	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.331	0.250	0.169	0.250
predicted_R	0.361	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.361	0.000	-0.361	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.417	1.000	-0.417	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.415	0.500	-0.415	-0.500
predicted_SO	1.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.222	0.000	-1.222	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.194	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.417	-
predicted_AVG	0.141	-
predicted_BB	0.611	-
predicted_H	0.440	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.242	-
predicted_R	0.361	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.320	-
predicted_SO	1.222	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.174	-0.020
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.512	0.095
predicted_AVG	0.141	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.525	-0.086
predicted_H	0.480	0.040
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.152	0.012
predicted_OBP	0.242	-0.000
predicted_R	0.278	-0.083
predicted_RBI	0.438	0.038
predicted_SLG	0.320	0.000
predicted_SO	1.510	0.288

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.51), rates preserved: AVG=0.137 HR/AB=0.043

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=16.0, BvP AVG=0.188)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	-1.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-2.000
BB	2.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	10.000	0.1111	0.2000	0.3333	0.1111	0.0556	0.1667	0.1111	0.5556
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	5.000	15.000	0.1389	0.2439	0.2500	0.1389	0.0278	0.0833	0.1389	0.4167
season	0.20	36	-	123.000	26.000	7.000	6.000	15.000	13.000	22.000	44.000	0.2114	0.3310	0.4146	0.2114	0.0488	0.1220	0.1789	0.3577

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1640
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.5630
predicted_AVG	0.1409
predicted_BB	0.4790
predicted_H	0.5020
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1590
predicted_OBP	0.2416
predicted_R	0.2340
predicted_RBI	0.4580
predicted_SLG	0.3204
predicted_SO	1.6650

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1940	0.1640	0.1745	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4170	3.5630	3.5119	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1410	0.1409	0.1409	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6110	0.4790	0.5252	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4400	0.5020	0.4803	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1590	0.1524	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2420	0.2416	0.2417	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3610	0.2340	0.2784	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.4580	0.4377	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3200	0.3204	0.3203	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2220	1.6650	1.5100	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.211

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260508_DET@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	679529
playerID	679529
playerName	Spencer Torkelson
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	DET
teamID	10

Jake Rogers (668670) · BATTER · C · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 12

All-history rows before 20260509: 12

System season_avg: 0.1820

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1818

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_3B	0.091	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.083	1.000	-0.083	-1.000
predicted_AB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.750	3.000	0.250	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.219	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.182	0.667	0.152	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.091	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.510	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.500	2.000	0.500	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.258	0.333	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.216	0.667	0.117	-0.333
predicted_R	0.364	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.333	2.000	0.667	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.230	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	0.000	1.667	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.346	1.333	1.333	Hitting_SLG	0.303	1.333	1.030	0.000
predicted_SO	0.909	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.833	0.000	-0.833	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	-
predicted_3B	0.091	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.219	-
predicted_BB	0.091	-
predicted_H	0.510	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.258	-
predicted_R	0.364	-
predicted_RBI	0.230	-
predicted_SLG	0.346	-
predicted_SO	0.909	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.135	-0.047
predicted_3B	0.124	0.033
predicted_AB	3.058	0.058
predicted_AVG	0.219	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.124	0.033
predicted_H	0.618	0.108
predicted_HBP	0.055	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.258	-0.000
predicted_R	0.383	0.019
predicted_RBI	0.279	0.049
predicted_SLG	0.346	0.000
predicted_SO	0.876	-0.033

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.06), rates preserved: AVG=0.202 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, BvP AVG=0.667)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	3.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.2500	0.2941	0.3750	0.2500	0.0625	0.0625	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	30.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	1.000	9.000	0.2000	0.2353	0.3333	0.2000	0.1333	0.0333	0.3000
season	0.20	11	-	33.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	1.000	10.000	0.1818	0.2162	0.3030	0.1818	0.1212	0.0303	0.3030

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1100
predicted_3B	0.1420
predicted_AB	3.0900
predicted_AVG	0.2189
predicted_BB	0.1420
predicted_H	0.6760
predicted_HBP	0.0550
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.2579
predicted_R	0.3930
predicted_RBI	0.3060
predicted_SLG	0.3460
predicted_SO	0.8590

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1820	0.1100	0.1352	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0910	0.1420	0.1241	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.0900	3.0585	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2190	0.2189	0.2189	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0910	0.1420	0.1241	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5100	0.6760	0.6179	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0550	0.0550	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2580	0.2579	0.2579	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3640	0.3930	0.3829	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2300	0.3060	0.2794	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3460	0.3460	0.3460	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9090	0.8590	0.8765	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.182

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	1
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260503_TEX@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	668670
playerID	668670
playerName	Jake Rogers
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	DET
teamID	10

Riley Greene (682985) · BATTER · LF · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 38

All-history rows before 20260509: 38

System season_avg: 0.3120

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3116

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.289	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.289	1.000	-0.289	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.680	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.632	4.000	0.368	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.354	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.312	0.750	-0.312	-0.750
predicted_BB	0.579	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.579	0.000	-0.579	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_H	1.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.132	3.000	-1.132	-3.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.105	0.000	-0.105	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.429	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.406	0.750	-0.406	-0.750
predicted_R	0.658	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.658	1.000	-0.658	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.521	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.478	1.000	-0.478	-1.000
predicted_SO	1.184	3.000	3.000	Hitting_SO	1.184	1.000	1.816	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.289	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.680	-
predicted_AVG	0.354	-
predicted_BB	0.579	-
predicted_H	1.300	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.429	-
predicted_R	0.658	-
predicted_RBI	0.170	-
predicted_SLG	0.521	-
predicted_SO	1.184	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.383	0.094
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.632	-0.048
predicted_AVG	0.354	0.000
predicted_BB	0.509	-0.070
predicted_H	1.285	-0.015
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.057	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.429	-0.000
predicted_R	0.569	-0.089
predicted_RBI	0.169	-0.001
predicted_SLG	0.521	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.400	0.216

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.68), rates preserved: AVG=0.349 HR/AB=0.016

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=18.0, BvP AVG=0.222)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	7.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	8.000	0.3889	0.4500	0.5556	0.3889	0.0000	0.0000	0.1111	0.4444
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	12.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	5.000	16.000	0.3333	0.4146	0.5000	0.3333	0.0278	0.0556	0.1389	0.4444
season	0.20	38	-	138.000	43.000	11.000	4.000	19.000	25.000	22.000	45.000	0.3116	0.4062	0.4783	0.3116	0.0290	0.1377	0.1594	0.3261

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.4330
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.6060
predicted_AVG	0.3540
predicted_BB	0.4710
predicted_H	1.2770
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0560
predicted_OBP	0.4288
predicted_R	0.5210
predicted_RBI	0.1690
predicted_SLG	0.5207
predicted_SO	1.5170

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2890	0.4330	0.3826	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6800	3.6060	3.6319	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3540	0.3540	0.3540	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5790	0.4710	0.5088	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.3000	1.2770	1.2851	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0560	0.0574	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4290	0.4288	0.4289	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6580	0.5210	0.5690	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1700	0.1690	0.1694	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5210	0.5207	0.5208	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1840	1.5170	1.4004	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.312

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.75
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260508_DET@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	682985
playerID	682985
playerName	Riley Greene
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	DET
teamID	10

Kevin McGonigle (805808) · BATTER · SS · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 36

All-history rows before 20260509: 36

System season_avg: 0.2950

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2950

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.306	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.306	0.000	-0.306	0.000
predicted_3B	0.056	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_AB	4.260	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.861	3.000	-0.861	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.195	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.295	0.000	-0.295	0.000
predicted_BB	0.611	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.611	2.000	0.389	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.830	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.139	0.000	-1.139	0.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.311	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.395	0.400	-0.145	-0.150
predicted_R	0.694	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.694	0.000	-0.694	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.560	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.444	0.000	-0.444	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.139	1.000	-0.139	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.225	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.446	0.000	-0.446	0.000
predicted_SO	0.583	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.583	1.000	0.417	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.306	-
predicted_3B	0.056	-
predicted_AB	4.260	-
predicted_AVG	0.195	-
predicted_BB	0.611	-
predicted_H	0.830	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.311	-
predicted_R	0.694	-
predicted_RBI	0.560	-
predicted_SLG	0.225	-
predicted_SO	0.583	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.146	-0.160
predicted_3B	0.027	-0.029
predicted_AB	3.969	-0.291
predicted_AVG	0.195	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.628	0.017
predicted_H	0.773	-0.057
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.011	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.311	-0.000
predicted_R	0.599	-0.095
predicted_RBI	0.520	-0.040
predicted_SLG	0.225	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.592	0.009

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.26), rates preserved: AVG=0.181 HR/AB=0.002

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 4.260

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	3.000	3.000	0.1579	0.2727	0.1579	0.1579	0.0000	0.1579	0.1579	0.1579
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	7.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	4.000	7.000	6.000	0.1842	0.3111	0.1842	0.1842	0.0000	0.1053	0.1842	0.1579
season	0.20	36	-	139.000	41.000	11.000	2.000	2.000	16.000	25.000	22.000	21.000	0.2950	0.3951	0.4460	0.2950	0.0144	0.1151	0.1583	0.1511

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0600
predicted_3B	0.0110
predicted_AB	3.8120
predicted_AVG	0.1945
predicted_BB	0.6370
predicted_H	0.7420
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0110
predicted_OBP	0.3106
predicted_R	0.5480
predicted_RBI	0.4990
predicted_SLG	0.2247
predicted_SO	0.5970

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3060	0.0600	0.1461	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0560	0.0110	0.0267	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.2600	3.8120	3.9688	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1950	0.1945	0.1947	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6110	0.6370	0.6279	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8300	0.7420	0.7728	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0110	0.0106	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3110	0.3106	0.3107	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6940	0.5480	0.5991	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5600	0.4990	0.5204	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2250	0.2247	0.2248	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5830	0.5970	0.5921	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.295

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260508_DET@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	805808
playerID	805808
playerName	Kevin McGonigle
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	DET
teamID	10

Burch Smith (572143) · PITCHER · Starter · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 7

All-history rows before 20260509: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.286	0.000	1.714	2.000
predicted_IP	3.200	3.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.586	1.000	1.614	2.200
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	2.286	1.000	-1.286	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 3.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	8.000	2.000	7.000	2.000	12.000	2.2500	1.1250	0.2500	0.8750	0.2500	1.5000
last_10	0.35	7	11.100	2.000	9.000	4.000	16.000	1.5882	1.1471	0.1765	0.7941	0.3529	1.4118
season	0.20	7	11.100	2.000	9.000	4.000	16.000	1.5882	1.1471	0.1765	0.7941	0.3529	1.4118

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5110
predicted_ER	0.3490
predicted_ERA	1.8860
predicted_H	1.3840
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.2000
predicted_SO	2.4190
predicted_WHIP	1.1372

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.5110	1.0321	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.3490	0.9268	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.8860	1.8860	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	1.3840	1.9496	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0000	0.3500	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	3.2000	1.2000	2.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	2.4190	1.9224	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1372	1.1372	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	3.2
H	3
R	2
ER	2
BB	2
SO	1
HR	1
BF	20
Pitches	80

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.59
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_BOS@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	572143
playerID	572143
playerName	Burch Smith
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	DET
teamID	10

Kenley Jansen (445276) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 11

All-history rows before 20260509: 11

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.455	0.000	-0.455	0.000
predicted_IP	2.100	2.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.673	1.000	1.427	1.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.909	1.000	0.091	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 10

Reference playing time: 2.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	2.000	5.000	3.000	4.000	1.000	3.8571	1.7143	0.4286	1.0714	0.6429	0.8571	0.2143
last_10	0.35	10	8.100	3.000	7.000	4.000	10.000	2.000	3.2400	1.3200	0.3600	0.8400	0.4800	1.2000	0.2400
season	0.20	10	8.100	3.000	7.000	4.000	10.000	2.000	3.2400	1.3200	0.3600	0.8400	0.4800	1.2000	0.2400

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4520
predicted_ER	0.3190
predicted_ERA	3.5177
predicted_H	0.7710
predicted_HR	0.1870
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.8540
predicted_WHIP	1.4974

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4520	0.2938	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3190	0.2074	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.5177	3.5177	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7710	0.5011	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1870	0.1216	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	2.1000	0.2000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8540	0.9051	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4974	1.4974	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	10
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.40
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	10
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	5
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_BOS@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	445276
playerID	445276
playerName	Kenley Jansen
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	DET
teamID	10

Brant Hurter (676428) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 17

All-history rows before 20260509: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.235	1.000	-0.235	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.976	1.200	0.024	-0.200
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.824	1.000	0.176	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	9.100	1.000	4.000	2.000	7.000	0.000	0.9643	0.6429	0.1071	0.4286	0.2143	0.7500	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	14.100	2.000	7.000	2.000	10.000	0.000	1.2558	0.6279	0.1395	0.4884	0.1395	0.6977	0.0000
season	0.20	16	20.100	4.000	12.000	5.000	14.000	1.000	1.7705	0.8361	0.1967	0.5902	0.2459	0.6885	0.0492

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3180
predicted_ER	0.2230
predicted_ERA	1.2276
predicted_H	0.7870
predicted_HR	0.0160
predicted_IP	1.2000
predicted_SO	1.1750
predicted_WHIP	0.6763

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3180	0.2067	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2230	0.1449	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.2276	1.2276	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7870	0.5116	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0160	0.0104	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.2000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1750	1.1138	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.6763	0.6763	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	1.77
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.2
Pitching_Pitches	30
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	19
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_DET@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	676428
playerID	676428
playerName	Brant Hurter
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	DET
teamID	10

Kyle Finnegan (640448) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 18

All-history rows before 20260509: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.167	2.000	1.833	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.917	0.000	0.083	1.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.722	0.000	1.278	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	4.000	0.000	0.0000	1.4000	0.0000	0.6000	0.8000	0.8000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	11.000	1.000	7.000	5.000	10.000	1.000	0.8182	1.0909	0.0909	0.6364	0.4546	0.9091	0.0909
season	0.20	17	17.200	1.000	10.000	12.000	13.000	1.000	0.5094	1.2453	0.0566	0.5660	0.6793	0.7359	0.0566

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6550
predicted_ER	0.0430
predicted_ERA	0.3882
predicted_H	0.6060
predicted_HR	0.0430
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8250
predicted_WHIP	1.2609

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.6550	0.4258	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.0430	0.7279	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.3882	0.3882	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.6060	1.0939	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	2.0000	0.0430	0.7279	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.8250	1.2363	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2609	1.2609	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	2
ER	2
BB	0
SO	2
HR	2
BF	5
Pitches	21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	1.53
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_DET@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	640448
playerID	640448
playerName	Kyle Finnegan
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	DET
teamID	10

Home Team: KC

Maikel Garcia (672580) · BATTER · 3B · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 36

All-history rows before 20260509: 36

System season_avg: 0.2710

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2708

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.278	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.278	0.000	-0.278	0.000
predicted_3B	0.028	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_AB	4.410	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	4.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.267	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.271	0.250	-0.271	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.389	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.389	0.000	-0.389	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_H	1.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.083	1.000	-1.083	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.325	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.331	0.250	-0.331	-0.250
predicted_R	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.490	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.417	1.000	-0.417	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.379	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.417	0.250	-0.417	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.722	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.722	0.000	0.278	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.278	-
predicted_3B	0.028	-
predicted_AB	4.410	-
predicted_AVG	0.267	-
predicted_BB	0.389	-
predicted_H	1.180	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.325	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.490	-
predicted_SLG	0.379	-
predicted_SO	0.722	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.281	0.003
predicted_3B	0.013	-0.015
predicted_AB	4.108	-0.302
predicted_AVG	0.267	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.373	-0.016
predicted_H	1.096	-0.084
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.053	-0.006
predicted_OBP	0.325	0.000
predicted_R	0.388	-0.112
predicted_RBI	0.456	-0.034
predicted_SLG	0.379	0.000
predicted_SO	0.576	-0.146

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.41), rates preserved: AVG=0.249 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 4.410

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	0.2632	0.3333	0.3158	0.2632	0.0000	0.1053	0.1053	0.1053
last_10	0.35	10	-	41.000	11.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	4.000	3.000	5.000	0.2683	0.3111	0.4390	0.2683	0.0244	0.1220	0.0732	0.1220
season	0.20	36	-	144.000	39.000	10.000	1.000	3.000	15.000	18.000	14.000	26.000	0.2708	0.3312	0.4167	0.2708	0.0208	0.1042	0.0972	0.1806

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2830
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.9450
predicted_AVG	0.2665
predicted_BB	0.3650
predicted_H	1.0510
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0500
predicted_OBP	0.3251
predicted_R	0.3270
predicted_RBI	0.4370
predicted_SLG	0.3791
predicted_SO	0.4980

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2780	0.2830	0.2812	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0280	0.0050	0.0130	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.4100	3.9450	4.1077	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2670	0.2665	0.2667	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3890	0.3650	0.3734	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1800	1.0510	1.0961	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0500	0.0535	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3250	0.3251	0.3251	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.3270	0.3876	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4900	0.4370	0.4556	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3790	0.3791	0.3791	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7220	0.4980	0.5764	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.271

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260508_DET@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	672580
playerID	672580
playerName	Maikel Garcia
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	KC
teamID	12

Jac Caglianone (695506) · BATTER · RF · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 31

All-history rows before 20260509: 31

System season_avg: 0.2360

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2364

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.194	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.194	1.000	-0.194	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.032	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.032	0.000	-0.032	0.000
predicted_AB	3.548	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.548	4.000	-0.548	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.186	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.236	0.250	0.097	0.083
predicted_BB	0.355	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.355	0.000	-0.355	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.032	0.000	-0.032	0.000
predicted_H	0.620	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.839	1.000	0.161	0.000
predicted_HR	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.097	0.000	-0.097	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.273	0.333	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.317	0.250	0.016	0.083
predicted_R	0.452	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.452	1.000	0.548	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.330	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.194	0.000	0.806	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.390	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.391	0.500	-0.058	-0.167
predicted_SO	1.194	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.194	1.000	-1.194	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.194	-
predicted_3B	0.032	-
predicted_AB	3.548	-
predicted_AVG	0.186	-
predicted_BB	0.355	-
predicted_H	0.620	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.273	-
predicted_R	0.452	-
predicted_RBI	0.330	-
predicted_SLG	0.390	-
predicted_SO	1.194	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.197	0.003
predicted_3B	0.016	-0.016
predicted_AB	3.634	0.086
predicted_AVG	0.186	0.000
predicted_BB	0.402	0.047
predicted_H	0.663	0.043
predicted_HBP	0.013	-
predicted_HR	0.172	0.012
predicted_OBP	0.273	0.000
predicted_R	0.552	0.100
predicted_RBI	0.348	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.390	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.164	-0.030

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.63), rates preserved: AVG=0.182 HR/AB=0.047

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	5.000	0.1579	0.2381	0.3684	0.1579	0.0526	0.1053	0.1053	0.2632
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	7.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	7.000	5.000	13.000	0.1944	0.2927	0.4167	0.1944	0.0556	0.1111	0.1389	0.3611
season	0.20	31	-	110.000	26.000	6.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	14.000	11.000	37.000	0.2364	0.3171	0.3909	0.2364	0.0273	0.0546	0.1000	0.3364

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1990
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.6800
predicted_AVG	0.1864
predicted_BB	0.4270
predicted_H	0.6860
predicted_HBP	0.0130
predicted_HR	0.1790
predicted_OBP	0.2730
predicted_R	0.6060
predicted_RBI	0.3580
predicted_SLG	0.3898
predicted_SO	1.1480

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1940	0.1990	0.1973	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0320	0.0070	0.0158	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5480	3.6800	3.6338	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1860	0.1864	0.1863	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3550	0.4270	0.4018	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6200	0.6860	0.6629	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0130	0.0130	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.1790	0.1724	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2730	0.2730	0.2730	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4520	0.6060	0.5521	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3300	0.3580	0.3482	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3900	0.3898	0.3899	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1940	1.1480	1.1641	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.236

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260508_DET@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	695506
playerID	695506
playerName	Jac Caglianone
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	KC
teamID	12

Bobby Witt Jr. (677951) · BATTER · SS · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 39

All-history rows before 20260509: 39

System season_avg: 0.2990

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2987

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.282	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.282	1.000	-0.282	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.026	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_AB	4.120	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.949	3.000	-0.949	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.363	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.299	0.333	-0.299	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.487	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.487	1.000	0.513	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.051	0.000	-0.051	0.000
predicted_H	1.490	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.179	1.000	-1.179	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.103	0.000	-0.103	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.429	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.371	0.500	-0.121	-0.250
predicted_R	0.436	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.436	0.000	-0.436	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.436	0.000	-0.436	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.308	0.000	-0.308	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.655	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.461	0.667	-0.461	-0.667
predicted_SO	0.795	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.795	0.000	-0.795	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.282	-
predicted_3B	0.026	-
predicted_AB	4.120	-
predicted_AVG	0.363	-
predicted_BB	0.487	-
predicted_H	1.490	-
predicted_HR	0.290	-
predicted_OBP	0.429	-
predicted_R	0.436	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.655	-
predicted_SO	0.795	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.299	0.018
predicted_3B	0.012	-0.014
predicted_AB	3.977	-0.143
predicted_AVG	0.363	0.000
predicted_BB	0.464	-0.023
predicted_H	1.441	-0.049
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.279	-0.011
predicted_OBP	0.429	-0.000
predicted_R	0.708	0.272
predicted_RBI	0.346	-0.014
predicted_SLG	0.655	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.782	-0.013

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.12), rates preserved: AVG=0.350 HR/AB=0.068

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 4.120

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	8.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	2.000	3.000	0.4211	0.4762	0.8421	0.4210	0.1053	0.1053	0.1053	0.1579
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	13.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	9.000	5.000	10.000	0.3250	0.4000	0.5250	0.3250	0.0500	0.0500	0.1250	0.2500
season	0.20	39	-	154.000	46.000	11.000	1.000	4.000	17.000	17.000	19.000	31.000	0.2987	0.3714	0.4610	0.2987	0.0260	0.1104	0.1234	0.2013

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3090
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.9000
predicted_AVG	0.3630
predicted_BB	0.4520
predicted_H	1.4150
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.2730
predicted_OBP	0.4286
predicted_R	0.8550
predicted_RBI	0.3390
predicted_SLG	0.6549
predicted_SO	0.7750

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2820	0.3090	0.2995	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0260	0.0050	0.0123	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1200	3.9000	3.9770	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3630	0.3630	0.3630	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4870	0.4520	0.4642	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.4900	1.4150	1.4413	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2900	0.2730	0.2790	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4290	0.4286	0.4287	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4360	0.8550	0.7083	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.3390	0.3464	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6550	0.6549	0.6549	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7950	0.7750	0.7820	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.299

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260508_DET@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	677951
playerID	677951
playerName	Bobby Witt Jr.
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	KC
teamID	12

Michael Massey (686681) · BATTER · 2B · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 22

All-history rows before 20260509: 22

System season_avg: 0.2390

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2388

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.318	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.318	1.000	-0.318	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.045	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.045	3.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.243	0.667	0.667	Hitting_AVG	0.239	0.333	0.428	0.333
predicted_BB	0.091	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.650	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.727	1.000	1.273	1.000
predicted_HR	0.120	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.091	0.000	0.909	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.251	0.667	0.667	Hitting_OBP	0.254	0.333	0.413	0.333
predicted_R	0.409	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.409	1.000	0.591	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.409	0.000	0.591	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.045	0.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.484	1.667	1.667	Hitting_SLG	0.433	0.667	1.234	1.000
predicted_SO	0.773	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.773	0.000	0.227	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.318	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.045	-
predicted_AVG	0.243	-
predicted_BB	0.091	-
predicted_H	0.650	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.251	-
predicted_R	0.409	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.484	-
predicted_SO	0.773	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.339	0.021
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.171	0.126
predicted_AVG	0.243	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.066	-0.025
predicted_H	0.738	0.088
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.136	0.016
predicted_OBP	0.251	-0.000
predicted_R	0.566	0.157
predicted_RBI	0.409	0.049
predicted_SLG	0.484	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.847	0.074

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.17), rates preserved: AVG=0.233 HR/AB=0.043

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	3.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	0.000	5.000	0.2500	0.2500	0.5625	0.2500	0.0625	0.1250	0.0000	0.3125
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	8.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	6.000	1.000	8.000	0.2353	0.2500	0.4118	0.2353	0.0294	0.1471	0.0294	0.2353
season	0.20	22	-	67.000	16.000	7.000	2.000	9.000	9.000	2.000	17.000	0.2388	0.2535	0.4328	0.2388	0.0299	0.1343	0.0299	0.2537

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3500
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.2390
predicted_AVG	0.2426
predicted_BB	0.0530
predicted_H	0.7860
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1440
predicted_OBP	0.2507
predicted_R	0.6510
predicted_RBI	0.4360
predicted_SLG	0.4838
predicted_SO	0.8870

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3180	0.3500	0.3388	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0450	3.2390	3.1711	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2430	0.2426	0.2427	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0910	0.0530	0.0663	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6500	0.7860	0.7384	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1440	0.1356	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2510	0.2507	0.2508	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4090	0.6510	0.5663	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.4360	0.4094	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4840	0.4838	0.4839	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7730	0.8870	0.8471	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.239

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260508_DET@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	686681
playerID	686681
playerName	Michael Massey
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	KC
teamID	12

Kyle Isbel (664728) · BATTER · CF · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 29

All-history rows before 20260509: 29

System season_avg: 0.2890

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2889

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.138	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.138	0.000	-0.138	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.103	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.103	4.000	-0.103	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.314	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.289	0.500	0.044	-0.167
predicted_BB	0.207	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.207	0.000	-0.207	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.820	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.897	2.000	0.103	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.103	0.000	0.897	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.388	0.333	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.354	0.500	-0.020	-0.167
predicted_R	0.414	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.414	1.000	0.586	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.330	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.345	2.000	0.655	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.138	0.000	-0.138	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.415	1.333	1.333	Hitting_SLG	0.433	0.500	0.900	0.833
predicted_SO	0.759	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.759	0.000	-0.759	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.138	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.103	-
predicted_AVG	0.314	-
predicted_BB	0.207	-
predicted_H	0.820	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.388	-
predicted_R	0.414	-
predicted_RBI	0.330	-
predicted_SLG	0.415	-
predicted_SO	0.759	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.149	0.011
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.118	0.015
predicted_AVG	0.314	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.265	0.058
predicted_H	0.925	0.105
predicted_HBP	0.087	-
predicted_HR	0.053	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.388	0.000
predicted_R	0.407	-0.007
predicted_RBI	0.369	0.039
predicted_SLG	0.415	0.000
predicted_SO	0.699	-0.060

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.12), rates preserved: AVG=0.297 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	3.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	0.3333	0.4118	0.4000	0.3333	0.0000	0.1333	0.1333	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	10.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	2.000	7.000	0.3030	0.3784	0.4242	0.3030	0.0303	0.1212	0.0606	0.2121
season	0.20	29	-	90.000	26.000	4.000	3.000	10.000	12.000	6.000	22.000	0.2889	0.3535	0.4333	0.2889	0.0333	0.1111	0.0667	0.2444

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1550
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.1260
predicted_AVG	0.3138
predicted_BB	0.2960
predicted_H	0.9810
predicted_HBP	0.0870
predicted_HR	0.0540
predicted_OBP	0.3884
predicted_R	0.4030
predicted_RBI	0.3900
predicted_SLG	0.4151
predicted_SO	0.6660

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1380	0.1550	0.1491	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1030	3.1260	3.1179	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3140	0.3138	0.3139	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2070	0.2960	0.2648	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8200	0.9810	0.9246	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0870	0.0870	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0540	0.0526	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3880	0.3884	0.3883	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4140	0.4030	0.4068	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3300	0.3900	0.3690	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4150	0.4151	0.4151	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7590	0.6660	0.6986	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.289

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260508_DET@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	664728
playerID	664728
playerName	Kyle Isbel
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	KC
teamID	12

Lane Thomas (657041) · BATTER · LF · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 19

All-history rows before 20260509: 19

System season_avg: 0.2000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.158	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.158	2.000	-0.158	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.197	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.200	0.000	0.133	0.333
predicted_BB	0.632	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.632	1.000	-0.632	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.105	1.000	-0.105	-1.000
predicted_H	0.570	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.632	0.000	0.368	1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.053	0.000	0.947	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.392	0.333	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.342	0.333	-0.009	0.000
predicted_R	0.158	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.158	0.000	0.842	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.180	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.211	0.000	0.789	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.105	0.000	-0.105	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.242	1.333	1.333	Hitting_SLG	0.250	0.000	1.083	1.333
predicted_SO	0.737	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.737	0.000	-0.737	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.158	-
predicted_AVG	0.197	-
predicted_BB	0.632	-
predicted_H	0.570	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.392	-
predicted_R	0.158	-
predicted_RBI	0.180	-
predicted_SLG	0.242	-
predicted_SO	0.737	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.901	-0.257
predicted_AVG	0.197	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.709	0.077
predicted_H	0.552	-0.018
predicted_HBP	0.145	-
predicted_HR	0.041	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.392	0.000
predicted_R	0.115	-0.043
predicted_RBI	0.171	-0.009
predicted_SLG	0.242	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.669	-0.068

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.16), rates preserved: AVG=0.175 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	3.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	12.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	3.000	0.1667	0.4118	0.1667	0.1667	0.0000	0.0000	0.3333	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	30.000	7.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	7.000	6.000	0.2333	0.3947	0.3333	0.2333	0.0333	0.1333	0.2333	0.2000
season	0.20	19	-	60.000	12.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	12.000	14.000	0.2000	0.3425	0.2500	0.2000	0.0167	0.0667	0.2000	0.2333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.7620
predicted_AVG	0.1967
predicted_BB	0.7500
predicted_H	0.5430
predicted_HBP	0.1450
predicted_HR	0.0410
predicted_OBP	0.3920
predicted_R	0.0920
predicted_RBI	0.1660
predicted_SLG	0.2417
predicted_SO	0.6330

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1580	2.7620	2.9006	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1970	0.1967	0.1968	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6320	0.7500	0.7087	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5700	0.5430	0.5524	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1450	0.1450	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0410	0.0407	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3920	0.3920	0.3920	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1580	0.0920	0.1151	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1800	0.1660	0.1709	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2420	0.2417	0.2418	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7370	0.6330	0.6694	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.2

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	1
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF-RF
gameID	20260506_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	657041
playerID	657041
playerName	Lane Thomas
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	KC
teamID	12

Vinnie Pasquantino (686469) · BATTER · 1B · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 36

All-history rows before 20260509: 36

System season_avg: 0.1910

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1912

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_3B	0.056	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_AB	3.920	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.778	3.000	0.222	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.227	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.191	0.000	-0.191	0.000
predicted_BB	0.472	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.472	1.000	-0.472	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.890	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.722	0.000	-0.722	0.000
predicted_HR	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.139	0.000	-0.139	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.277	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.278	0.250	-0.278	-0.250
predicted_R	0.444	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.444	0.000	-0.444	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.460	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.441	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.360	0.000	-0.360	0.000
predicted_SO	0.889	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.889	0.000	-0.889	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	-
predicted_3B	0.056	-
predicted_AB	3.920	-
predicted_AVG	0.227	-
predicted_BB	0.472	-
predicted_H	0.890	-
predicted_HR	0.190	-
predicted_OBP	0.277	-
predicted_R	0.444	-
predicted_RBI	0.460	-
predicted_SLG	0.441	-
predicted_SO	0.889	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.157	0.046
predicted_3B	0.050	-0.006
predicted_AB	3.921	0.001
predicted_AVG	0.227	0.000
predicted_BB	0.355	-0.117
predicted_H	0.890	0.000
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.188	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.277	-0.000
predicted_R	0.467	0.023
predicted_RBI	0.457	-0.003
predicted_SLG	0.441	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.809	-0.080

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.92), rates preserved: AVG=0.227 HR/AB=0.048

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.920

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	0.2000	0.2381	0.4000	0.2000	0.0500	0.1000	0.0500	0.1500
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	11.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	6.000	3.000	9.000	0.2821	0.3256	0.5385	0.2821	0.0513	0.1282	0.0769	0.2308
season	0.20	36	-	136.000	26.000	4.000	2.000	5.000	18.000	16.000	17.000	32.000	0.1912	0.2785	0.3603	0.1912	0.0368	0.1323	0.1250	0.2353

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1820
predicted_3B	0.0470
predicted_AB	3.9210
predicted_AVG	0.2270
predicted_BB	0.2920
predicted_H	0.8900
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.1870
predicted_OBP	0.2768
predicted_R	0.4800
predicted_RBI	0.4560
predicted_SLG	0.4405
predicted_SO	0.7660

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1110	0.1820	0.1572	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0560	0.0470	0.0502	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9200	3.9210	3.9206	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2270	0.2270	0.2270	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4720	0.2920	0.3550	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8900	0.8900	0.8900	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1900	0.1870	0.1880	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2770	0.2768	0.2769	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4440	0.4800	0.4674	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4600	0.4560	0.4574	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4410	0.4405	0.4407	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8890	0.7660	0.8091	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.191

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260508_DET@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	686469
playerID	686469
playerName	Vinnie Pasquantino
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	KC
teamID	12

Carter Jensen (695600) · BATTER · C · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 32

All-history rows before 20260509: 32

System season_avg: 0.2230

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2232

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_2B	0.062	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.062	0.000	-0.062
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.500	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	3.000	-0.500
predicted_AVG	0.127	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.223	0.000	-0.223
predicted_BB	0.438	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.438	0.000	-0.438
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.430	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.781	0.000	-0.781
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.188	0.000	-0.188
predicted_OBP	0.243	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.312	0.000	-0.312
predicted_R	0.469	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.469	0.000	-0.469
predicted_RBI	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.531	0.000	-0.531
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.162	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.402	0.000	-0.402
predicted_SO	1.250	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.250	2.000	0.750

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.062	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.127	-
predicted_BB	0.438	-
predicted_H	0.430	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.243	-
predicted_R	0.469	-
predicted_RBI	0.230	-
predicted_SLG	0.162	-
predicted_SO	1.250	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.029	-0.033
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.494	-0.006
predicted_AVG	0.127	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.500	0.062
predicted_H	0.438	0.008
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.038	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.243	0.000
predicted_R	0.411	-0.058
predicted_RBI	0.231	0.001
predicted_SLG	0.162	0.000
predicted_SO	1.597	0.347

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.125 HR/AB=0.011

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	10.000	0.1176	0.2500	0.1176	0.1177	0.0000	0.0588	0.1765	0.5882
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	18.000	0.0833	0.1951	0.0833	0.0833	0.0000	0.0278	0.1389	0.5000
season	0.20	32	-	112.000	25.000	2.000	6.000	17.000	15.000	14.000	40.000	0.2232	0.3125	0.4018	0.2232	0.0536	0.1518	0.1250	0.3571

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0120
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.4900
predicted_AVG	0.1267
predicted_BB	0.5340
predicted_H	0.4420
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0370
predicted_OBP	0.2433
predicted_R	0.3800
predicted_RBI	0.2320
predicted_SLG	0.1624
predicted_SO	1.7840

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0620	0.0120	0.0295	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5000	3.4900	3.4935	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1270	0.1267	0.1268	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4380	0.5340	0.5004	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4300	0.4420	0.4378	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0370	0.0381	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2430	0.2433	0.2432	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4690	0.3800	0.4112	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2300	0.2320	0.2313	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1620	0.1624	0.1623	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2500	1.7840	1.5971	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.223

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260508_DET@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	695600
playerID	695600
playerName	Carter Jensen
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	KC
teamID	12

Salvador Perez (521692) · BATTER · DH · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 38

All-history rows before 20260509: 38

System season_avg: 0.1950

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1946

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_2B	0.132	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.132	0.000	-0.132
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.980	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.921	3.000	-0.921
predicted_AVG	0.155	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.195	0.000	-0.195
predicted_BB	0.158	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.158	1.000	0.842
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.620	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.763	0.000	-0.763
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.132	0.000	-0.132
predicted_OBP	0.225	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.237	0.250	0.013
predicted_R	0.368	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.368	0.000	-0.368
predicted_RBI	0.750	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.447	0.000	-0.447
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.201	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.329	0.000	-0.329
predicted_SO	0.921	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.921	1.000	0.079

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.132	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.980	-
predicted_AVG	0.155	-
predicted_BB	0.158	-
predicted_H	0.620	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.225	-
predicted_R	0.368	-
predicted_RBI	0.750	-
predicted_SLG	0.201	-
predicted_SO	0.921	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.108	-0.024
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.797	-0.183
predicted_AVG	0.155	0.000
predicted_BB	0.240	0.082
predicted_H	0.590	-0.030
predicted_HBP	0.085	-
predicted_HR	0.027	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.225	-0.000
predicted_R	0.325	-0.043
predicted_RBI	0.717	-0.033
predicted_SLG	0.201	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.024	0.103

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.98), rates preserved: AVG=0.148 HR/AB=0.007

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.980

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	0.1111	0.1905	0.1111	0.1111	0.0000	0.2222	0.1111	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	7.000	2.000	0.000	7.000	4.000	2.000	10.000	0.1892	0.2619	0.2432	0.1892	0.0000	0.1892	0.0541	0.2703
season	0.20	38	-	149.000	29.000	5.000	5.000	17.000	14.000	6.000	35.000	0.1946	0.2375	0.3289	0.1946	0.0336	0.1141	0.0403	0.2349

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0950
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.6990
predicted_AVG	0.1551
predicted_BB	0.2850
predicted_H	0.5740
predicted_HBP	0.0850
predicted_HR	0.0250
predicted_OBP	0.2249
predicted_R	0.3020
predicted_RBI	0.6990
predicted_SLG	0.2009
predicted_SO	1.0790

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1320	0.0950	0.1080	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9800	3.6990	3.7973	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1550	0.1551	0.1551	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1580	0.2850	0.2405	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6200	0.5740	0.5901	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0850	0.0850	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0250	0.0267	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2250	0.2249	0.2249	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3680	0.3020	0.3251	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7500	0.6990	0.7168	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2010	0.2009	0.2009	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9210	1.0790	1.0237	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.195

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260508_DET@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	521692
playerID	521692
playerName	Salvador Perez
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	KC
teamID	12

Michael Wacha (608379) · PITCHER · Starter · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 7

All-history rows before 20260509: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	2.143	2.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_IP	4.100	4.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	6.300	7.000	-2.200	-2.900
predicted_SO	7.000	7.000	-	Pitching_SO	5.143	3.000	1.857	4.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 4.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	31.100	14.000	26.000	11.000	26.000	4.000	4.0213	1.1809	0.4468	0.8298	0.3511	0.8298	0.1277
last_10	0.35	7	44.100	15.000	32.000	15.000	36.000	5.000	3.0451	1.0602	0.3383	0.7218	0.3383	0.8120	0.1128
season	0.20	7	44.100	15.000	32.000	15.000	36.000	5.000	3.0451	1.0602	0.3383	0.7218	0.3383	0.8120	0.1128

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.1790
predicted_ER	2.4520
predicted_ERA	3.4844
predicted_H	4.8790
predicted_HR	0.7570
predicted_IP	6.1000
predicted_SO	5.1930
predicted_WHIP	1.1145

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	2.1790	2.1163	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.4520	2.2938	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.4844	3.4844	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	4.8790	3.5213	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.7570	0.8420	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.1000	6.1000	5.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	7.0000	5.1930	5.8255	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1145	1.1145	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.1
H	1
R	2
ER	2
BB	2
SO	7
HR	1
BF	18
Pitches	89

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	26
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	3.05
Pitching_Flyouts	5
Pitching_Groundouts	7
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	7.0
Pitching_Pitches	79
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	54
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	608379
playerID	608379
playerName	Michael Wacha
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	KC
teamID	12

Matt Strahm (621381) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 14

All-history rows before 20260509: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.357	0.000	-0.357	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.943	1.000	0.157	0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	0.000	-1.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	0.000	0.0000	0.8000	0.0000	0.4000	0.4000	0.8000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	3.000	7.000	5.000	10.000	2.000	2.7000	1.2000	0.3000	0.7000	0.5000	1.0000	0.2000
season	0.20	14	13.200	5.000	10.000	6.000	14.000	2.000	3.2927	1.1707	0.3659	0.7317	0.4390	1.0244	0.1463

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4430
predicted_ER	0.1780
predicted_ERA	1.6035
predicted_H	0.5710
predicted_HR	0.0990
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9150
predicted_WHIP	1.0141

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.4430	0.6380	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1780	0.1157	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.6035	1.6035	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.5710	0.7211	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0990	0.0644	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.0000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.9150	0.5948	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0141	1.0141	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.29
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	7
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	6
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	621381
playerID	621381
playerName	Matt Strahm
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	KC
teamID	12

Nick Mears (683232) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 16

All-history rows before 20260509: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.188	0.000	-0.188	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.787	0.100	0.313	1.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.625	0.000	0.375	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	0.0000	1.0000	0.0000	0.7500	0.2500	0.7500
last_10	0.35	10	8.100	3.000	7.000	4.000	4.000	3.2400	1.3200	0.3600	0.8400	0.4800	0.4800
season	0.20	16	14.000	3.000	9.000	7.000	10.000	1.9286	1.1429	0.2143	0.6429	0.5000	0.7143

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2790
predicted_ER	0.1240
predicted_ERA	1.5197
predicted_H	0.5570
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.4750
predicted_WHIP	1.1406

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2790	0.1814	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1240	0.0806	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.5197	1.5197	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.5570	0.3621	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	0.2000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.4750	0.6587	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1406	1.1406	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	2
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.93
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	7
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	6
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_DET@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	683232
playerID	683232
playerName	Nick Mears
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	KC
teamID	12

Daniel Lynch IV (663738) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 15

All-history rows before 20260509: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.967	1.000	0.033	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.333	2.000	-0.333	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	2.000	3.000	1.000	7.000	1.000	3.3750	0.7500	0.3750	0.5625	0.1875	1.3125	0.1875
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	2.000	3.000	1.000	12.000	1.000	1.9286	0.4286	0.2143	0.3214	0.1071	1.2857	0.1071
season	0.20	15	15.200	3.000	5.000	4.000	20.000	1.000	1.7234	0.5745	0.1915	0.3191	0.2553	1.2766	0.0638

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1730
predicted_ER	0.2820
predicted_ERA	2.5384
predicted_H	0.4290
predicted_HR	0.1350
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.2960
predicted_WHIP	0.6024

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1730	0.1124	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2820	0.1833	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.5384	2.5384	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.4290	0.2788	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1350	0.0878	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.2960	1.1924	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.6024	0.6024	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.72
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	663738
playerID	663738
playerName	Daniel Lynch IV
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	KC
teamID	12

Lucas Erceg (668674) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 17

All-history rows before 20260509: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.353	0.000	0.647	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.906	1.000	0.094	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.824	0.000	0.176	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	0.0000	1.0000	0.0000	0.4000	0.6000	1.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	4.000	6.000	10.000	10.000	3.7241	1.6552	0.4138	0.6207	1.0345	1.0345
season	0.20	17	16.100	6.000	11.000	12.000	14.000	3.3061	1.4082	0.3674	0.6735	0.7347	0.8571

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.7790
predicted_ER	0.2180
predicted_ERA	1.9647
predicted_H	0.5320
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9830
predicted_WHIP	1.3110

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.7790	0.8564	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.2180	0.4917	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.9647	1.9647	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.5320	0.6958	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9830	0.9889	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3110	1.3110	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.31
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_DET@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	668674
playerID	668674
playerName	Lucas Erceg
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	KC
teamID	12

20260509_HOU@CIN

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 1, "confidence": 0.7127635891710762, "home_win_probability": 0.2872364108289238, "away_win_probability": 0.7127635891710762, "predicted_score_text": "HOU 4 - 1 CIN", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to final winner probability with starter-quality caps.", "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score", "final_prediction_synced": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 1, "score_text": "HOU 4 - 1 CIN", "winner": "HOU"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 1, "score_text": "HOU 4 - 1 CIN", "winner": "HOU"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"}}

Away Team: HOU

Yordan Alvarez (670541) · BATTER · DH · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 39

All-history rows before 20260509: 39

System season_avg: 0.3240

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3241

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.231	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.231	0.000	-0.231	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.890	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.718	4.000	-0.718	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.271	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.324	0.500	-0.324	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.564	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.564	0.000	0.436	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.205	2.000	-1.205	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.333	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.424	0.500	-0.174	-0.250
predicted_R	0.692	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.692	1.000	-0.692	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.450	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.744	2.000	-0.744	-2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.466	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.655	1.250	-0.655	-1.250
predicted_SO	0.538	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.538	0.000	-0.538	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.231	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.890	-
predicted_AVG	0.271	-
predicted_BB	0.564	-
predicted_H	1.050	-
predicted_HR	0.240	-
predicted_OBP	0.333	-
predicted_R	0.692	-
predicted_RBI	0.450	-
predicted_SLG	0.466	-
predicted_SO	0.538	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	-0.120
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.785	-0.105
predicted_AVG	0.271	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.337	-0.227
predicted_H	1.023	-0.027
predicted_HBP	0.147	-
predicted_HR	0.232	-0.008
predicted_OBP	0.333	-0.000
predicted_R	0.563	-0.129
predicted_RBI	0.441	-0.009
predicted_SLG	0.466	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.779	0.241

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.89), rates preserved: AVG=0.263 HR/AB=0.060

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.890

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	0.000	5.000	0.2778	0.3158	0.4444	0.2778	0.0556	0.1111	0.0000	0.2778
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	9.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	3.000	10.000	0.2308	0.3023	0.3846	0.2308	0.0513	0.0769	0.0769	0.2564
season	0.20	39	-	145.000	47.000	9.000	13.000	29.000	27.000	22.000	21.000	0.3241	0.4244	0.6552	0.3241	0.0897	0.2000	0.1517	0.1448

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0460
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7290
predicted_AVG	0.2706
predicted_BB	0.2140
predicted_H	1.0090
predicted_HBP	0.1470
predicted_HR	0.2270
predicted_OBP	0.3328
predicted_R	0.4930
predicted_RBI	0.4360
predicted_SLG	0.4656
predicted_SO	0.9090

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2310	0.0460	0.1108	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8900	3.7290	3.7854	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2710	0.2706	0.2707	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5640	0.2140	0.3365	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0500	1.0090	1.0233	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1470	0.1470	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2400	0.2270	0.2316	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3330	0.3328	0.3329	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6920	0.4930	0.5626	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4500	0.4360	0.4409	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4660	0.4656	0.4657	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5380	0.9090	0.7792	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.324

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260508_HOU@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	670541
playerID	670541
playerName	Yordan Alvarez
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	HOU
teamID	11

Zach Cole (805904) · BATTER · LF · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 3

All-history rows before 20260509: 3

System season_avg: 0.2000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.333	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.333	3.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.200	0.333	-0.200	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.630	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.667	1.000	-0.667	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.200	0.333	-0.200	-0.333
predicted_R	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.630	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.667	1.000	-0.667	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.500	0.333	-0.500	-0.333
predicted_SO	1.333	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.333	0.000	0.667	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.333	-
predicted_AVG	0.200	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.630	-
predicted_HR	0.310	-
predicted_OBP	0.200	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.630	-
predicted_SLG	0.500	-
predicted_SO	1.333	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.333	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.200	0.000
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.654	0.024
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.325	0.015
predicted_OBP	0.200	0.000
predicted_R	0.333	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.654	0.024
predicted_SLG	0.500	0.000
predicted_SO	1.333	0.000

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.33), rates preserved: AVG=0.196 HR/AB=0.098

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 3

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	3	-	10.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.2000	0.2000	0.5000	0.2000	0.1000	0.2000	0.4000
last_10	0.35	3	-	10.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.2000	0.2000	0.5000	0.2000	0.1000	0.2000	0.4000
season	0.20	3	-	10.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.2000	0.2000	0.5000	0.2000	0.1000	0.2000	0.4000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.3330
predicted_AVG	0.2000
predicted_BB	0.0000
predicted_H	0.6670
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.3330
predicted_OBP	0.2000
predicted_R	0.3330
predicted_RBI	0.6670
predicted_SLG	0.5000
predicted_SO	1.3330

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3330	3.3330	3.3330	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6300	0.6670	0.6541	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3100	0.3330	0.3250	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.3330	0.3330	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6300	0.6670	0.6541	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5000	0.5000	0.5000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3330	1.3330	1.3330	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	3
Season rows before report date	3
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	3
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.2

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260506_LAD@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	805904
playerID	805904
playerName	Zach Cole
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	HOU
teamID	11

Christian Walker (572233) · BATTER · 1B · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 38

All-history rows before 20260509: 38

System season_avg: 0.2980

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2979

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.237	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.237	0.000	0.763	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.770	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.711	5.000	0.289	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.262	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.298	0.000	-0.048	0.250
predicted_BB	0.368	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.368	0.000	-0.368	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.990	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.105	0.000	-0.105	1.000
predicted_HR	0.210	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.237	0.000	-0.237	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.311	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.367	0.000	-0.117	0.250
predicted_R	0.632	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.632	0.000	0.368	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.370	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	0.711	0.000	1.289	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.447	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.553	0.000	-0.053	0.500
predicted_SO	0.763	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.763	0.000	-0.763	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.237	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.770	-
predicted_AVG	0.262	-
predicted_BB	0.368	-
predicted_H	0.990	-
predicted_HR	0.210	-
predicted_OBP	0.311	-
predicted_R	0.632	-
predicted_RBI	0.370	-
predicted_SLG	0.447	-
predicted_SO	0.763	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.137	-0.100
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.801	0.031
predicted_AVG	0.262	0.000
predicted_BB	0.281	-0.087
predicted_H	0.997	0.007
predicted_HBP	0.045	-
predicted_HR	0.209	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.311	-0.000
predicted_R	0.616	-0.016
predicted_RBI	0.373	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.447	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.819	0.056

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.80), rates preserved: AVG=0.262 HR/AB=0.055

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	0.2105	0.2500	0.3684	0.2105	0.0526	0.0526	0.0526	0.2632
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	12.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	6.000	2.000	7.000	0.3077	0.3571	0.4872	0.3077	0.0513	0.1026	0.0513	0.1795
season	0.20	38	-	141.000	42.000	9.000	9.000	27.000	24.000	14.000	29.000	0.2979	0.3671	0.5532	0.2979	0.0638	0.1915	0.0993	0.2057

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0830
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.8170
predicted_AVG	0.2620
predicted_BB	0.2350
predicted_H	1.0000
predicted_HBP	0.0450
predicted_HR	0.2080
predicted_OBP	0.3109
predicted_R	0.6070
predicted_RBI	0.3740
predicted_SLG	0.4469
predicted_SO	0.8490

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2370	0.0830	0.1369	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7700	3.8170	3.8006	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2620	0.2620	0.2620	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3680	0.2350	0.2815	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9900	1.0000	0.9965	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0450	0.0450	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2100	0.2080	0.2087	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3110	0.3109	0.3109	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6320	0.6070	0.6158	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3700	0.3740	0.3726	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4470	0.4469	0.4469	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7630	0.8490	0.8189	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.298

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260508_HOU@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	572233
playerID	572233
playerName	Christian Walker
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	HOU
teamID	11

Braden Shewmake (669699) · BATTER · SS · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 4

All-history rows before 20260509: 4

System season_avg: 0.2860

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2857

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.500	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	3.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.286	0.333	-0.286	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.880	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.286	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.286	0.333	-0.036	-0.083
predicted_R	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.500	0.333	-0.500	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.750	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.750	0.000	1.250	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.286	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.880	-
predicted_HR	0.220	-
predicted_OBP	0.286	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.220	-
predicted_SLG	0.500	-
predicted_SO	0.750	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.500	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.286	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.958	0.078
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.239	0.019
predicted_OBP	0.286	-0.000
predicted_R	0.500	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.239	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.500	0.000
predicted_SO	0.750	0.000

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.274 HR/AB=0.068

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 4

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	4	-	14.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	0.2857	0.2857	0.5000	0.2857	0.0714	0.0714	0.2143
last_10	0.35	4	-	14.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	0.2857	0.2857	0.5000	0.2857	0.0714	0.0714	0.2143
season	0.20	4	-	14.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	0.2857	0.2857	0.5000	0.2857	0.0714	0.0714	0.2143

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.5000
predicted_AVG	0.2857
predicted_BB	0.0000
predicted_H	1.0000
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.2500
predicted_OBP	0.2857
predicted_R	0.5000
predicted_RBI	0.2500
predicted_SLG	0.5000
predicted_SO	0.7500

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5000	3.5000	3.5000	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2860	0.2857	0.2858	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8800	1.0000	0.9580	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2200	0.2500	0.2395	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2860	0.2857	0.2858	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.5000	0.5000	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2200	0.2500	0.2395	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5000	0.5000	0.5000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7500	0.7500	0.7500	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	4
Season rows before report date	4
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	4
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.286

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS-3B
gameID	20260506_LAD@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	669699
playerID	669699
playerName	Braden Shewmake
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	HOU
teamID	11

Brice Matthews (694728) · BATTER · CF · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 22

All-history rows before 20260509: 22

System season_avg: 0.2360

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2361

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_3B	0.045	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.045	1.000	-0.045	-1.000
predicted_AB	3.273	1.000	1.000	Hitting_AB	3.273	4.000	-2.273	-3.000
predicted_AVG	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.236	0.500	-0.236	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.273	2.000	2.000	Hitting_BB	0.273	0.000	1.727	2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.870	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.773	2.000	-0.773	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.355	0.750	0.750	Hitting_OBP	0.291	0.500	0.459	0.250
predicted_R	0.455	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.455	2.000	-0.455	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.720	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.545	0.000	-0.545	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.662	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.486	1.000	-0.486	-1.000
predicted_SO	1.273	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.273	1.000	-1.273	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	-
predicted_3B	0.045	-
predicted_AB	3.273	-
predicted_AVG	0.290	-
predicted_BB	0.273	-
predicted_H	0.870	-
predicted_HR	0.280	-
predicted_OBP	0.355	-
predicted_R	0.455	-
predicted_RBI	0.720	-
predicted_SLG	0.662	-
predicted_SO	1.273	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.110	-0.072
predicted_3B	0.103	0.058
predicted_AB	3.430	0.157
predicted_AVG	0.290	0.000
predicted_BB	0.378	0.105
predicted_H	0.968	0.098
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.307	0.027
predicted_OBP	0.355	-0.000
predicted_R	0.612	0.157
predicted_RBI	0.799	0.079
predicted_SLG	0.662	0.000
predicted_SO	1.199	-0.074

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.43), rates preserved: AVG=0.282 HR/AB=0.090

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	1.000	-2.000
BB	2.000	2.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	4.000	3.000	5.000	0.2941	0.3810	0.7647	0.2941	0.1177	0.2941	0.1765	0.2941
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	12.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	8.000	7.000	3.000	13.000	0.3158	0.3571	0.6316	0.3158	0.0790	0.2105	0.0790	0.3421
season	0.20	22	-	72.000	17.000	4.000	1.000	4.000	12.000	10.000	6.000	28.000	0.2361	0.2911	0.4861	0.2361	0.0556	0.1667	0.0833	0.3889

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0710
predicted_3B	0.1350
predicted_AB	3.5150
predicted_AVG	0.2901
predicted_BB	0.4350
predicted_H	1.0200
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.3220
predicted_OBP	0.3547
predicted_R	0.6960
predicted_RBI	0.8410
predicted_SLG	0.6624
predicted_SO	1.1590

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1820	0.0710	0.1098	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0450	0.1350	0.1035	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2730	3.5150	3.4303	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2900	0.2901	0.2901	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2730	0.4350	0.3783	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8700	1.0200	0.9675	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2800	0.3220	0.3073	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3550	0.3547	0.3548	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4550	0.6960	0.6117	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7200	0.8410	0.7986	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6620	0.6624	0.6623	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2730	1.1590	1.1989	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	1
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.236

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	1
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260508_HOU@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	694728
playerID	694728
playerName	Brice Matthews
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	HOU
teamID	11

Jose Altuve (514888) · BATTER · 2B · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 35

All-history rows before 20260509: 35

System season_avg: 0.2430

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2426

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.286	1.000	-0.286	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.280	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.886	3.000	1.114	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.212	0.200	0.200	Hitting_AVG	0.243	0.333	-0.043	-0.133
predicted_BB	0.486	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.486	0.000	-0.486	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.057	0.000	-0.057	0.000
predicted_H	0.910	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.943	1.000	0.057	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.086	0.000	-0.086	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.267	0.200	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.331	0.500	-0.131	-0.300
predicted_R	0.686	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.686	2.000	0.314	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.257	0.000	-0.257	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.344	0.200	0.200	Hitting_SLG	0.382	0.667	-0.182	-0.467
predicted_SO	0.886	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.886	1.000	0.114	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.286	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.280	-
predicted_AVG	0.212	-
predicted_BB	0.486	-
predicted_H	0.910	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.267	-
predicted_R	0.686	-
predicted_RBI	0.190	-
predicted_SLG	0.344	-
predicted_SO	0.886	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.402	0.116
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.038	-0.242
predicted_AVG	0.212	0.000
predicted_BB	0.281	-0.205
predicted_H	0.857	-0.053
predicted_HBP	0.130	-
predicted_HR	0.018	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.267	0.000
predicted_R	0.722	0.036
predicted_RBI	0.181	-0.009
predicted_SLG	0.344	0.000
predicted_SO	1.060	0.174

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.28), rates preserved: AVG=0.200 HR/AB=0.004

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 4.280

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	4.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	0.000	7.000	0.2000	0.2381	0.3500	0.2000	0.0000	0.0500	0.0000	0.3500
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	8.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	7.000	2.000	10.000	0.2105	0.2683	0.3158	0.2105	0.0000	0.0263	0.0526	0.2632
season	0.20	35	-	136.000	33.000	10.000	3.000	9.000	24.000	17.000	31.000	0.2426	0.3312	0.3824	0.2427	0.0221	0.0662	0.1250	0.2279

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.4650
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.9070
predicted_AVG	0.2122
predicted_BB	0.1700
predicted_H	0.8290
predicted_HBP	0.1300
predicted_HR	0.0170
predicted_OBP	0.2673
predicted_R	0.7410
predicted_RBI	0.1760
predicted_SLG	0.3445
predicted_SO	1.1530

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2860	0.4650	0.4023	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.2800	3.9070	4.0376	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2120	0.2122	0.2121	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4860	0.1700	0.2806	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9100	0.8290	0.8573	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1300	0.1300	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0170	0.0181	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2670	0.2673	0.2672	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6860	0.7410	0.7218	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1900	0.1760	0.1809	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3440	0.3445	0.3443	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8860	1.1530	1.0595	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.243

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260508_HOU@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	514888
playerID	514888
playerName	Jose Altuve
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	HOU
teamID	11

Cam Smith (701358) · BATTER · RF · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 36

All-history rows before 20260509: 36

System season_avg: 0.2190

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2188

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.556	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.556	3.000	0.444	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.246	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.219	0.333	0.031	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.417	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.417	1.000	-0.417	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.850	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.778	1.000	0.222	0.000
predicted_HR	0.050	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.083	0.000	0.917	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.309	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.308	0.500	-0.058	-0.250
predicted_R	0.444	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.444	1.000	0.556	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	0.417	0.000	1.583	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.309	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SLG	0.336	0.333	0.664	0.667
predicted_SO	1.111	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.111	0.000	-0.111	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.556	-
predicted_AVG	0.246	-
predicted_BB	0.417	-
predicted_H	0.850	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.309	-
predicted_R	0.444	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.309	-
predicted_SO	1.111	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.103	-0.064
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.579	0.023
predicted_AVG	0.246	0.000
predicted_BB	0.327	-0.090
predicted_H	0.873	0.023
predicted_HBP	0.046	-
predicted_HR	0.051	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.309	-0.000
predicted_R	0.340	-0.104
predicted_RBI	0.432	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.309	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.041	-0.070

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.58), rates preserved: AVG=0.244 HR/AB=0.014

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	0.2778	0.3158	0.2778	0.2778	0.0000	0.1111	0.0556	0.2222
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	3.000	12.000	0.2222	0.3000	0.3333	0.2222	0.0278	0.1389	0.0833	0.3333
season	0.20	36	-	128.000	28.000	6.000	3.000	15.000	16.000	15.000	40.000	0.2188	0.3082	0.3359	0.2188	0.0234	0.1172	0.1172	0.3125

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0690
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.5910
predicted_AVG	0.2465
predicted_BB	0.2790
predicted_H	0.8850
predicted_HBP	0.0460
predicted_HR	0.0520
predicted_OBP	0.3087
predicted_R	0.2840
predicted_RBI	0.4380
predicted_SLG	0.3088
predicted_SO	1.0030

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.0690	0.1033	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5560	3.5910	3.5788	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2460	0.2465	0.2463	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4170	0.2790	0.3273	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8500	0.8850	0.8728	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0460	0.0460	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0520	0.0513	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3090	0.3087	0.3088	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4440	0.2840	0.3400	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.4380	0.4317	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3090	0.3088	0.3089	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1110	1.0030	1.0408	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.219

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260508_HOU@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	701358
playerID	701358
playerName	Cam Smith
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	HOU
teamID	11

Christian Vázquez (543877) · BATTER · C · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 16

All-history rows before 20260509: 16

System season_avg: 0.3160

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3158

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.562	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.562	4.000	0.438	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.271	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.316	0.250	-0.316	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.312	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.312	0.000	-0.312	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.810	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.125	1.000	-1.125	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.188	1.000	-0.188	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.371	0.250	-0.371	-0.250
predicted_R	0.438	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.438	1.000	-0.438	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.750	1.000	-0.750	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.453	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.544	1.000	-0.544	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.688	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.688	1.000	0.312	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.562	-
predicted_AVG	0.271	-
predicted_BB	0.312	-
predicted_H	0.810	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.310	-
predicted_R	0.438	-
predicted_RBI	0.370	-
predicted_SLG	0.453	-
predicted_SO	0.688	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.119	-0.131
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.536	-0.026
predicted_AVG	0.271	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.244	-0.068
predicted_H	0.903	0.093
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.188	0.018
predicted_OBP	0.310	-0.000
predicted_R	0.337	-0.101
predicted_RBI	0.411	0.041
predicted_SLG	0.453	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.700	0.012

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.56), rates preserved: AVG=0.253 HR/AB=0.053

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	0.2778	0.2778	0.4444	0.2778	0.0556	0.1111	0.0000	0.2222
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	8.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	6.000	0.2353	0.3158	0.4118	0.2353	0.0588	0.0882	0.1177	0.1765
season	0.20	16	-	57.000	18.000	4.000	3.000	12.000	7.000	5.000	11.000	0.3158	0.3710	0.5439	0.3158	0.0526	0.2105	0.0877	0.1930

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0490
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.5220
predicted_AVG	0.2705
predicted_BB	0.2070
predicted_H	0.9530
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1980
predicted_OBP	0.3097
predicted_R	0.2830
predicted_RBI	0.4330
predicted_SLG	0.4529
predicted_SO	0.7060

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.0490	0.1193	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5620	3.5220	3.5360	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2710	0.2705	0.2707	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3120	0.2070	0.2437	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8100	0.9530	0.9029	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.1980	0.1882	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3100	0.3097	0.3098	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4380	0.2830	0.3372	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3700	0.4330	0.4110	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4530	0.4529	0.4529	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6880	0.7060	0.6997	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.316

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260508_HOU@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	543877
playerID	543877
playerName	Christian Vázquez
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	HOU
teamID	11

Isaac Paredes (670623) · BATTER · 3B · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 33

All-history rows before 20260509: 33

System season_avg: 0.2690

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2689

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.212	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.212	1.000	-0.212	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.750	2.000	2.000	Hitting_AB	3.606	4.000	-1.606	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.294	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.269	0.250	-0.269	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.424	2.000	2.000	Hitting_BB	0.424	1.000	1.576	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.970	1.000	-0.970	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.422	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.370	0.400	0.130	0.100
predicted_R	0.485	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.485	0.000	0.515	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.485	1.000	-0.485	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.411	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.403	0.500	-0.403	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.667	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.667	0.000	0.333	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.212	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.750	-
predicted_AVG	0.294	-
predicted_BB	0.424	-
predicted_H	1.100	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.422	-
predicted_R	0.485	-
predicted_RBI	0.290	-
predicted_SLG	0.411	-
predicted_SO	0.667	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.292	0.080
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.455	-0.295
predicted_AVG	0.294	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.520	0.096
predicted_H	1.014	-0.086
predicted_HBP	0.160	-
predicted_HR	0.018	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.422	-0.000
predicted_R	0.377	-0.108
predicted_RBI	0.266	-0.024
predicted_SLG	0.411	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.763	0.096

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.75), rates preserved: AVG=0.270 HR/AB=0.005

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-2.000
BB	2.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	0.2667	0.4211	0.4000	0.2667	0.0000	0.0667	0.2000	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	12.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	6.000	6.000	0.3429	0.4524	0.4286	0.3429	0.0000	0.0571	0.1714	0.1714
season	0.20	33	-	119.000	32.000	7.000	3.000	16.000	16.000	14.000	22.000	0.2689	0.3696	0.4034	0.2689	0.0252	0.1344	0.1177	0.1849

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3350
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.2960
predicted_AVG	0.2938
predicted_BB	0.5720
predicted_H	0.9680
predicted_HBP	0.1600
predicted_HR	0.0170
predicted_OBP	0.4218
predicted_R	0.3190
predicted_RBI	0.2530
predicted_SLG	0.4107
predicted_SO	0.8140

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2120	0.3350	0.2920	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7500	3.2960	3.4549	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2940	0.2938	0.2939	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4240	0.5720	0.5202	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1000	0.9680	1.0142	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1600	0.1600	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0170	0.0181	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4220	0.4218	0.4219	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4850	0.3190	0.3771	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2900	0.2530	0.2660	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4110	0.4107	0.4108	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6670	0.8140	0.7626	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.269

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260508_HOU@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	670623
playerID	670623
playerName	Isaac Paredes
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	HOU
teamID	11

Spencer Arrighetti (681293) · PITCHER · Starter · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 4

All-history rows before 20260509: 4

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.250	1.000	-1.250	-1.000
predicted_IP	5.100	5.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.750	5.000	-0.650	0.100
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	-	Pitching_SO	6.250	4.000	-1.250	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 4

Reference playing time: 5.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	4	23.000	5.000	16.000	14.000	25.000	1.000	1.9565	1.3043	0.2174	0.6956	0.6087	1.0870	0.0435
last_10	0.35	4	23.000	5.000	16.000	14.000	25.000	1.000	1.9565	1.3043	0.2174	0.6956	0.6087	1.0870	0.0435
season	0.20	4	23.000	5.000	16.000	14.000	25.000	1.000	1.9565	1.3043	0.2174	0.6956	0.6087	1.0870	0.0435

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	3.4490
predicted_ER	1.2320
predicted_ERA	1.9565
predicted_H	3.9420
predicted_HR	0.2460
predicted_IP	5.2000
predicted_SO	6.1590
predicted_WHIP	1.3043

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	3.4490	2.5918	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	1.2320	0.8008	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.9565	1.9565	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	3.9420	3.2623	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2460	0.1599	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.1000	5.2000	5.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	6.1590	5.7534	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3043	1.3043	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	4
Season rows before report date	4
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	4
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.1
H	2
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	5
HR	0
BF	21
Pitches	76

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	5
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	23
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	1.96
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	5
Pitching_H	5
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.0
Pitching_Pitches	87
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	4
Pitching_Strikes	50
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260502_HOU@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	681293
playerID	681293
playerName	Spencer Arrighetti
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	HOU
teamID	11

Enyel De Los Santos (660853) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 14

All-history rows before 20260509: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.571	0.000	-0.571	0.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.971	1.000	0.229	0.200
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.857	0.000	-0.857	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	4.000	7.000	1.000	4.000	0.000	6.3529	1.4118	0.7059	1.2353	0.1765	0.7059	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	7.000	11.000	3.000	9.000	0.000	6.5172	1.4483	0.7241	1.1379	0.3103	0.9310	0.0000
season	0.20	14	15.000	8.000	15.000	4.000	12.000	1.000	4.8000	1.2667	0.5333	1.0000	0.2667	0.8000	0.0667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2410
predicted_ER	0.6780
predicted_ERA	6.0998
predicted_H	1.1540
predicted_HR	0.0130
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8040
predicted_WHIP	1.3956

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.2410	0.5067	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.6780	0.4407	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	6.0998	6.0998	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.1540	0.7501	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0130	0.0084	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.0000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.8040	0.5226	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3956	1.3956	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.80
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_LAD@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	660853
playerID	660853
playerName	Enyel De Los Santos
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	HOU
teamID	11

Bryan Abreu (650556) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 13

All-history rows before 20260509: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.877	1.000	0.123	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.538	3.000	-0.538	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	4.000	6.000	4.000	8.000	1.000	6.0000	1.6667	0.6667	1.0000	0.6667	1.3333	0.1667
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	8.000	11.000	12.000	14.000	2.000	7.2000	2.3000	0.8000	1.1000	1.2000	1.4000	0.2000
season	0.20	13	12.100	13.000	13.000	16.000	20.000	4.000	9.4865	2.3514	1.0540	1.0540	1.2973	1.6216	0.3243

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.1260
predicted_ER	0.9090
predicted_ERA	7.1173
predicted_H	1.2030
predicted_HR	0.2410
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.6260
predicted_WHIP	2.0253

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	1.1260	0.7319	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.9090	0.9408	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	7.1173	7.1173	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.2030	1.1320	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2410	0.1567	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.6260	1.4069	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	2.0253	2.0253	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	9.49
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_LAD@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	650556
playerID	650556
playerName	Bryan Abreu
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	HOU
teamID	11

Bryan King (687911) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 13

All-history rows before 20260509: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.462	1.000	-0.462	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.062	2.000	-0.062	-1.000
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.154	2.000	1.846	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	4.000	7.000	2.000	3.000	6.3529	1.5882	0.7059	1.2353	0.3529	0.5294
last_10	0.35	10	13.000	5.000	13.000	4.000	10.000	3.4615	1.3077	0.3846	1.0000	0.3077	0.7692
season	0.20	13	15.200	6.000	16.000	5.000	15.000	3.4468	1.3404	0.3830	1.0213	0.3191	0.9575

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3910
predicted_ER	0.6260
predicted_ERA	4.7597
predicted_H	1.3140
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	0.8270
predicted_WHIP	1.4405

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.3910	0.9542	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.6260	0.4069	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.7597	4.7597	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	1.3140	1.5541	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0000	0.3500	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.1000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	0.8270	1.5875	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4405	1.4405	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	0
ER	0
BB	2
SO	3
HR	1
BF	7
Pitches	38

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	9
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	3.45
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	37
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	26
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_LAD@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	687911
playerID	687911
playerName	Bryan King
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	HOU
teamID	11

Home Team: CIN

Sal Stewart (701398) · BATTER · 3B · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 39

All-history rows before 20260509: 39

System season_avg: 0.2450

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2449

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.154	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.154	0.000	0.846	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.830	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.769	4.000	0.231	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.183	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.245	0.250	0.255	0.250
predicted_BB	0.513	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.513	0.000	-0.513	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.700	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.923	1.000	1.077	1.000
predicted_HR	0.170	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.256	0.000	0.744	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.254	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.331	0.250	0.169	0.250
predicted_R	0.564	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.564	0.000	0.436	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.280	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.769	0.000	0.231	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.179	0.000	-0.179	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.326	1.500	1.500	Hitting_SLG	0.490	0.250	1.010	1.250
predicted_SO	0.769	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.769	0.000	-0.769	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.154	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.830	-
predicted_AVG	0.183	-
predicted_BB	0.513	-
predicted_H	0.700	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.254	-
predicted_R	0.564	-
predicted_RBI	0.280	-
predicted_SLG	0.326	-
predicted_SO	0.769	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.075	-0.079
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.911	0.081
predicted_AVG	0.183	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.432	-0.081
predicted_H	0.714	0.014
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.174	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.254	0.000
predicted_R	0.457	-0.107
predicted_RBI	0.283	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.326	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.762	-0.007

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.91), rates preserved: AVG=0.183 HR/AB=0.045

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.830

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	0.2000	0.2727	0.3500	0.2000	0.0500	0.0500	0.1000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	7.000	0.1250	0.1860	0.2000	0.1250	0.0250	0.0250	0.0750	0.1750
season	0.20	39	-	147.000	36.000	6.000	10.000	30.000	22.000	20.000	30.000	0.2449	0.3314	0.4898	0.2449	0.0680	0.2041	0.1361	0.2041

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0320
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.9540
predicted_AVG	0.1827
predicted_BB	0.3890
predicted_H	0.7220
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1770
predicted_OBP	0.2541
predicted_R	0.4000
predicted_RBI	0.2850
predicted_SLG	0.3255
predicted_SO	0.7590

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1540	0.0320	0.0747	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8300	3.9540	3.9106	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1830	0.1827	0.1828	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5130	0.3890	0.4324	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7000	0.7220	0.7143	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.1770	0.1745	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2540	0.2541	0.2541	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5640	0.4000	0.4574	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2800	0.2850	0.2833	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3260	0.3255	0.3257	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7690	0.7590	0.7625	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.245

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B-3B
gameID	20260508_HOU@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	701398
playerID	701398
playerName	Sal Stewart
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	CIN
teamID	7

Nathaniel Lowe (663993) · BATTER · DH · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 21

All-history rows before 20260509: 21

System season_avg: 0.2780

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2778

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.238	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.238	0.000	-0.238	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.429	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.429	4.000	0.571	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.259	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.278	0.250	-0.028	0.000
predicted_BB	0.429	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.429	0.000	-0.429	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.870	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.952	1.000	0.048	0.000
predicted_HR	0.210	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.336	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.358	0.250	-0.108	0.000
predicted_R	0.429	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.429	0.000	-0.429	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.430	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.714	0.000	-0.714	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.480	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.597	0.250	-0.347	0.000
predicted_SO	0.857	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.857	2.000	0.143	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.238	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.429	-
predicted_AVG	0.259	-
predicted_BB	0.429	-
predicted_H	0.870	-
predicted_HR	0.210	-
predicted_OBP	0.336	-
predicted_R	0.429	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.480	-
predicted_SO	0.857	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.162	-0.076
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.473	0.044
predicted_AVG	0.259	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.414	-0.015
predicted_H	0.892	0.022
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.215	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.336	-0.000
predicted_R	0.334	-0.095
predicted_RBI	0.442	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.480	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.068	0.211

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.47), rates preserved: AVG=0.257 HR/AB=0.062

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	0.2222	0.3000	0.3889	0.2222	0.0556	0.0556	0.1111	0.3889
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	10.000	2.000	2.000	6.000	3.000	4.000	11.000	0.2941	0.3684	0.5294	0.2941	0.0588	0.1765	0.1177	0.3235
season	0.20	21	-	72.000	20.000	5.000	6.000	15.000	9.000	9.000	18.000	0.2778	0.3580	0.5972	0.2778	0.0833	0.2083	0.1250	0.2500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1210
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.4960
predicted_AVG	0.2585
predicted_BB	0.4060
predicted_H	0.9040
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.2180
predicted_OBP	0.3355
predicted_R	0.2830
predicted_RBI	0.4490
predicted_SLG	0.4797
predicted_SO	1.1820

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2380	0.1210	0.1619	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4290	3.4960	3.4726	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2590	0.2585	0.2587	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4290	0.4060	0.4141	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8700	0.9040	0.8921	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2100	0.2180	0.2152	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3360	0.3355	0.3357	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4290	0.2830	0.3341	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.4490	0.4424	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4800	0.4797	0.4798	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8570	1.1820	1.0682	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.278

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260508_HOU@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	663993
playerID	663993
playerName	Nathaniel Lowe
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	CIN
teamID	7

Will Benson (666181) · BATTER · RF · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 17

All-history rows before 20260509: 17

System season_avg: 0.1880

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1875

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.059	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_3B	0.059	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_AB	2.824	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.824	4.000	0.176	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.237	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.188	0.500	-0.188	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.353	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.353	1.000	0.647	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_H	0.620	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.529	2.000	-0.529	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.330	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.278	0.600	-0.028	-0.350
predicted_R	0.294	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.294	1.000	-0.294	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.412	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.312	0.500	-0.312	-0.500
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.059	-
predicted_3B	0.059	-
predicted_AB	2.824	-
predicted_AVG	0.237	-
predicted_BB	0.353	-
predicted_H	0.620	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.330	-
predicted_R	0.294	-
predicted_RBI	0.120	-
predicted_SLG	0.412	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.106	0.048
predicted_3B	0.029	-0.030
predicted_AB	3.046	0.222
predicted_AVG	0.237	0.000
predicted_BB	0.406	0.053
predicted_H	0.706	0.086
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.124	0.014
predicted_OBP	0.330	-0.000
predicted_R	0.480	0.186
predicted_RBI	0.136	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.412	0.000
predicted_SO	1.113	0.113

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.05), rates preserved: AVG=0.232 HR/AB=0.041

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	7.000	0.2778	0.3500	0.5000	0.2778	0.0556	0.0556	0.1111	0.3889
last_10	0.35	10	-	28.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	5.000	10.000	0.2143	0.3333	0.3571	0.2143	0.0357	0.0357	0.1786	0.3571
season	0.20	17	-	48.000	9.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	6.000	17.000	0.1875	0.2778	0.3125	0.1875	0.0208	0.0417	0.1250	0.3542

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1320
predicted_3B	0.0130
predicted_AB	3.1650
predicted_AVG	0.2375
predicted_BB	0.4350
predicted_H	0.7520
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1320
predicted_OBP	0.3297
predicted_R	0.5800
predicted_RBI	0.1450
predicted_SLG	0.4125
predicted_SO	1.1740

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0590	0.1320	0.1065	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0590	0.0130	0.0291	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.8240	3.1650	3.0457	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2370	0.2375	0.2373	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3530	0.4350	0.4063	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6200	0.7520	0.7058	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1320	0.1243	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3300	0.3297	0.3298	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2940	0.5800	0.4799	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1200	0.1450	0.1362	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4120	0.4125	0.4123	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1740	1.1131	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.188

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260506_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	666181
playerID	666181
playerName	Will Benson
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	CIN
teamID	7

Spencer Steer (668715) · BATTER · 1B · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 36

All-history rows before 20260509: 36

System season_avg: 0.2400

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2400

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.472	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.472	4.000	-0.472	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.274	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.240	0.000	-0.240	0.000
predicted_BB	0.333	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.900	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.833	0.000	-0.833	0.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.351	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.319	0.000	-0.069	0.250
predicted_R	0.361	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.361	0.000	-0.361	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.421	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.432	0.000	-0.432	0.000
predicted_SO	0.972	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.972	2.000	0.028	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.472	-
predicted_AVG	0.274	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.900	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.351	-
predicted_R	0.361	-
predicted_RBI	0.350	-
predicted_SLG	0.421	-
predicted_SO	0.972	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.106	-0.061
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.610	0.138
predicted_AVG	0.274	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.393	0.060
predicted_H	0.971	0.071
predicted_HBP	0.018	-
predicted_HR	0.150	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.351	-0.000
predicted_R	0.279	-0.082
predicted_RBI	0.375	0.025
predicted_SLG	0.421	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.887	-0.085

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.61), rates preserved: AVG=0.269 HR/AB=0.042

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	0.2500	0.3182	0.4000	0.2500	0.0500	0.1000	0.1000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	11.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	5.000	8.000	0.3235	0.4103	0.4412	0.3235	0.0294	0.1177	0.1471	0.2353
season	0.20	36	-	125.000	30.000	6.000	6.000	12.000	13.000	12.000	35.000	0.2400	0.3191	0.4320	0.2400	0.0480	0.0960	0.0960	0.2800

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0730
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.6840
predicted_AVG	0.2737
predicted_BB	0.4260
predicted_H	1.0090
predicted_HBP	0.0180
predicted_HR	0.1560
predicted_OBP	0.3506
predicted_R	0.2350
predicted_RBI	0.3880
predicted_SLG	0.4208
predicted_SO	0.8410

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.0730	0.1059	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4720	3.6840	3.6098	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2740	0.2737	0.2738	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.4260	0.3934	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9000	1.0090	0.9708	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0180	0.0180	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1560	0.1504	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3510	0.3506	0.3507	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3610	0.2350	0.2791	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3500	0.3880	0.3747	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4210	0.4208	0.4209	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9720	0.8410	0.8868	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.24

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF-1B
gameID	20260508_HOU@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	668715
playerID	668715
playerName	Spencer Steer
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	CIN
teamID	7

JJ Bleday (668709) · BATTER · LF · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 11

All-history rows before 20260509: 11

System season_avg: 0.2780

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2778

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.182	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.182	0.000	0.818	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.420	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.273	3.000	0.727	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.253	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.278	0.000	-0.028	0.250
predicted_BB	0.636	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.636	1.000	-0.636	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_H	0.860	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.909	0.000	0.091	1.000
predicted_HR	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.364	0.000	-0.364	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.344	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.395	0.250	-0.145	0.000
predicted_R	0.545	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.545	0.000	-0.545	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.630	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.636	0.000	-0.636	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.591	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.667	0.000	-0.167	0.500
predicted_SO	0.636	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.636	0.000	0.364	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.420	-
predicted_AVG	0.253	-
predicted_BB	0.636	-
predicted_H	0.860	-
predicted_HR	0.320	-
predicted_OBP	0.344	-
predicted_R	0.545	-
predicted_RBI	0.630	-
predicted_SLG	0.591	-
predicted_SO	0.636	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.192	0.010
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.647	0.228
predicted_AVG	0.253	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.570	-0.066
predicted_H	0.920	0.060
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.345	0.025
predicted_OBP	0.344	0.000
predicted_R	0.500	-0.045
predicted_RBI	0.673	0.043
predicted_SLG	0.591	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.752	0.116

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.65), rates preserved: AVG=0.252 HR/AB=0.095

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, BvP AVG=0.600)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	2.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	5.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	0.2381	0.3043	0.5714	0.2381	0.0952	0.1905	0.0952	0.2381
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	9.000	2.000	3.000	6.000	5.000	6.000	7.000	0.2571	0.3659	0.5714	0.2571	0.0857	0.1714	0.1714	0.2000
season	0.20	11	-	36.000	10.000	2.000	4.000	7.000	6.000	7.000	7.000	0.2778	0.3953	0.6667	0.2778	0.1111	0.1944	0.1944	0.1944

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1980
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7700
predicted_AVG	0.2527
predicted_BB	0.5340
predicted_H	0.9530
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.3580
predicted_OBP	0.3441
predicted_R	0.4760
predicted_RBI	0.6960
predicted_SLG	0.5905
predicted_SO	0.8140

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1820	0.1980	0.1924	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4200	3.7700	3.6475	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2530	0.2527	0.2528	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6360	0.5340	0.5697	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8600	0.9530	0.9204	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3200	0.3580	0.3447	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3440	0.3441	0.3441	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5450	0.4760	0.5001	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6300	0.6960	0.6729	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5910	0.5905	0.5907	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6360	0.8140	0.7517	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.278

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260508_HOU@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	668709
playerID	668709
playerName	JJ Bleday
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	CIN
teamID	7

TJ Friedl (670770) · BATTER · CF · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 33

All-history rows before 20260509: 33

System season_avg: 0.1920

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1923

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.330	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.939	4.000	0.061	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.158	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.192	0.000	-0.192	0.000
predicted_BB	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.680	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.758	0.000	-0.758	0.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.061	0.000	-0.061	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.207	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.271	0.000	-0.271	0.000
predicted_R	0.424	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.424	0.000	-0.424	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.212	0.000	-0.212	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.121	0.000	-0.121	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.254	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.285	0.000	-0.285	0.000
predicted_SO	0.939	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.939	1.000	1.061	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.330	-
predicted_AVG	0.158	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.680	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.207	-
predicted_R	0.424	-
predicted_RBI	0.120	-
predicted_SLG	0.254	-
predicted_SO	0.939	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.214	0.032
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.027	-0.303
predicted_AVG	0.158	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.241	-0.092
predicted_H	0.634	-0.046
predicted_HBP	0.052	-
predicted_HR	0.048	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.207	0.000
predicted_R	0.352	-0.072
predicted_RBI	0.114	-0.006
predicted_SLG	0.254	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.949	0.010

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.33), rates preserved: AVG=0.146 HR/AB=0.011

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 4.330

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.1053	0.1500	0.1579	0.1053	0.0000	0.0000	0.0526	0.2632
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	8.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	9.000	0.2051	0.2439	0.3590	0.2051	0.0256	0.0513	0.0256	0.2308
season	0.20	33	-	130.000	25.000	6.000	2.000	7.000	14.000	11.000	31.000	0.1923	0.2708	0.2846	0.1923	0.0154	0.0539	0.0846	0.2385

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2310
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.8630
predicted_AVG	0.1576
predicted_BB	0.1920
predicted_H	0.6090
predicted_HBP	0.0520
predicted_HR	0.0470
predicted_OBP	0.2070
predicted_R	0.3130
predicted_RBI	0.1110
predicted_SLG	0.2536
predicted_SO	0.9540

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1820	0.2310	0.2138	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.3300	3.8630	4.0265	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1580	0.1576	0.1577	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.1920	0.2414	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6800	0.6090	0.6339	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0520	0.0520	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0470	0.0480	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2070	0.2070	0.2070	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4240	0.3130	0.3518	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1200	0.1110	0.1142	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2540	0.2536	0.2537	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9390	0.9540	0.9487	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.192

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260508_HOU@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	670770
playerID	670770
playerName	TJ Friedl
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	CIN
teamID	7

Jose Trevino (624431) · BATTER · C · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 10

All-history rows before 20260509: 10

System season_avg: 0.1360

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1364

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.143	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.200	0.000	0.800	3.000
predicted_AVG	0.135	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.136	-	-0.136	-
predicted_BB	0.143	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.100	0.000	0.900	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.260	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.300	0.000	-0.300	0.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.156	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.174	-	0.076	-
predicted_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.182	-	-0.182	-
predicted_SO	0.571	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.400	0.000	0.600	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.143	-
predicted_AVG	0.135	-
predicted_BB	0.143	-
predicted_H	0.260	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.156	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.000	-
predicted_SLG	0.190	-
predicted_SO	0.571	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.160	0.017
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.101	-0.042
predicted_AVG	0.135	0.000
predicted_BB	0.100	-0.043
predicted_H	0.361	0.101
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.156	-0.000
predicted_R	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.190	0.000
predicted_SO	0.520	-0.051

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.14), rates preserved: AVG=0.115 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	0.1333	0.1333	0.2000	0.1333	0.0000	0.1333
last_10	0.35	7	-	22.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	0.1364	0.1739	0.1818	0.1364	0.0454	0.1818
season	0.20	7	-	22.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	0.1364	0.1739	0.1818	0.1364	0.0454	0.1818

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1690
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.0790
predicted_AVG	0.1350
predicted_BB	0.0770
predicted_H	0.4160
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.1556
predicted_R	0.0000
predicted_RBI	0.0000
predicted_SLG	0.1900
predicted_SO	0.4930

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.1690	0.1599	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1430	3.0790	3.1014	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1350	0.1350	0.1350	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1430	0.0770	0.1001	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.2600	0.4160	0.3614	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1560	0.1556	0.1557	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1900	0.1900	0.1900	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5710	0.4930	0.5203	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	10
Season rows before report date	10
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.136

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	14.40
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_HOU@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	624431
playerID	624431
playerName	Jose Trevino
pos	C
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CIN
teamID	7

Elly De La Cruz (682829) · BATTER · SS · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 39

All-history rows before 20260509: 39

System season_avg: 0.2710

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2710

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.205	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.205	1.000	-0.205	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.110	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.974	4.000	0.026	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.251	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.271	0.500	-0.021	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.436	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.436	0.000	-0.436	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_H	1.030	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.077	2.000	-0.077	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.256	0.000	-0.256	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.297	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.341	0.500	-0.091	-0.250
predicted_R	0.692	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.692	0.000	-0.692	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.550	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.718	0.000	-0.718	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.205	0.000	-0.205	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.368	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.516	0.750	-0.266	-0.500
predicted_SO	1.256	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.256	1.000	0.744	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.205	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.110	-
predicted_AVG	0.251	-
predicted_BB	0.436	-
predicted_H	1.030	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.297	-
predicted_R	0.692	-
predicted_RBI	0.550	-
predicted_SLG	0.368	-
predicted_SO	1.256	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.282	0.077
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.107	-0.003
predicted_AVG	0.251	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.364	-0.072
predicted_H	1.029	-0.001
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.052	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.297	0.000
predicted_R	0.360	-0.332
predicted_RBI	0.551	0.001
predicted_SLG	0.368	0.000
predicted_SO	1.231	-0.025

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.11), rates preserved: AVG=0.250 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 4.110

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	22.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	0.2727	0.2917	0.3636	0.2727	0.0000	0.1364	0.0454	0.2727
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	8.000	3.000	0.000	4.000	1.000	4.000	12.000	0.2105	0.2791	0.2895	0.2105	0.0000	0.1053	0.1053	0.3158
season	0.20	39	-	155.000	42.000	8.000	10.000	28.000	27.000	17.000	49.000	0.2710	0.3410	0.5161	0.2710	0.0645	0.1807	0.1097	0.3161

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3240
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.1050
predicted_AVG	0.2506
predicted_BB	0.3250
predicted_H	1.0290
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0530
predicted_OBP	0.2972
predicted_R	0.1810
predicted_RBI	0.5510
predicted_SLG	0.3682
predicted_SO	1.2170

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2050	0.3240	0.2823	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1100	4.1050	4.1068	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2510	0.2506	0.2507	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4360	0.3250	0.3639	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0300	1.0290	1.0293	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0530	0.0519	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2970	0.2972	0.2971	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6920	0.1810	0.3599	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5500	0.5510	0.5507	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3680	0.3682	0.3681	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2560	1.2170	1.2307	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.271

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260508_HOU@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	682829
playerID	682829
playerName	Elly De La Cruz
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	CIN
teamID	7

Matt McLain (680574) · BATTER · 2B · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 35

All-history rows before 20260509: 35

System season_avg: 0.2070

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2074

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.171	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.171	0.000	-0.171	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.857	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.857	3.000	-0.857	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.214	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.207	0.333	-0.207	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.514	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.514	0.000	0.486	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.057	0.000	-0.057	0.000
predicted_H	0.690	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.800	1.000	-0.800	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.086	0.000	-0.086	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.268	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.310	0.333	-0.060	-0.083
predicted_R	0.429	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.429	0.000	-0.429	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.114	0.000	-0.114	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.353	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.319	0.333	-0.319	-0.333
predicted_SO	1.057	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.057	0.000	-1.057	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.171	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.857	-
predicted_AVG	0.214	-
predicted_BB	0.514	-
predicted_H	0.690	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.268	-
predicted_R	0.429	-
predicted_RBI	0.200	-
predicted_SLG	0.353	-
predicted_SO	1.057	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.103	-0.068
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.687	-0.170
predicted_AVG	0.214	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.348	-0.166
predicted_H	0.741	0.051
predicted_HBP	0.011	-
predicted_HR	0.140	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.268	-0.000
predicted_R	0.370	-0.059
predicted_RBI	0.211	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.353	0.000
predicted_SO	0.737	-0.320

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.86), rates preserved: AVG=0.192 HR/AB=0.036

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.857

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	0.2353	0.2778	0.4118	0.2353	0.0588	0.0588	0.0588	0.0588
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	8.000	0.1892	0.2308	0.2973	0.1892	0.0270	0.0541	0.0541	0.2162
season	0.20	35	-	135.000	28.000	6.000	3.000	10.000	15.000	18.000	37.000	0.2074	0.3097	0.3185	0.2074	0.0222	0.0741	0.1333	0.2741

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0660
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.5960
predicted_AVG	0.2136
predicted_BB	0.2590
predicted_H	0.7680
predicted_HBP	0.0110
predicted_HR	0.1450
predicted_OBP	0.2677
predicted_R	0.3380
predicted_RBI	0.2170
predicted_SLG	0.3531
predicted_SO	0.5640

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1710	0.0660	0.1028	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8570	3.5960	3.6874	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2140	0.2136	0.2137	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5140	0.2590	0.3483	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6900	0.7680	0.7407	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0110	0.0110	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1450	0.1397	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2680	0.2677	0.2678	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4290	0.3380	0.3699	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2000	0.2170	0.2111	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3530	0.3531	0.3531	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0570	0.5640	0.7365	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.207

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260508_HOU@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	680574
playerID	680574
playerName	Matt McLain
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	CIN
teamID	7

Chase Burns (695505) · PITCHER · Starter · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 7

All-history rows before 20260509: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	4.000	4.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.429	0.000	2.571	4.000
predicted_IP	4.200	4.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.757	7.000	-1.557	-2.800
predicted_SO	6.000	6.000	-	Pitching_SO	6.571	7.000	-0.571	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 4.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	30.000	9.000	23.000	9.000	30.000	4.000	2.7000	1.0667	0.3000	0.7667	0.3000	1.0000	0.1333
last_10	0.35	7	41.000	10.000	29.000	13.000	46.000	5.000	2.1951	1.0244	0.2439	0.7073	0.3171	1.1220	0.1220
season	0.20	7	41.000	10.000	29.000	13.000	46.000	5.000	2.1951	1.0244	0.2439	0.7073	0.3171	1.1220	0.1220

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.8560
predicted_ER	1.6150
predicted_ERA	2.4223
predicted_H	4.4040
predicted_HR	0.7620
predicted_IP	6.0000
predicted_SO	6.4020
predicted_WHIP	1.0434

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	5.0000	1.8560	2.9564	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	4.0000	1.6150	2.4497	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.4223	2.4223	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	4.4040	3.9126	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.7620	0.8453	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.2000	6.0000	5.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	6.0000	6.4020	6.2613	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0434	1.0434	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.2
H	3
R	4
ER	4
BB	5
SO	6
HR	1
BF	23
Pitches	102

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	24
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.20
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	7
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	7.0
Pitching_Pitches	94
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	7
Pitching_Strikes	59
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_CIN@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	695505
playerID	695505
playerName	Chase Burns
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	CIN
teamID	7

Connor Phillips (683175) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 19

All-history rows before 20260509: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.632	5.000	-0.632	-5.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.905	1.000	0.195	0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.105	0.000	-1.105	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	7.000	8.000	3.000	7.000	0.000	10.5000	1.8333	1.1667	1.3333	0.5000	1.1667	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	7.000	10.000	7.000	12.000	0.000	5.9062	1.5938	0.6562	0.9375	0.6562	1.1250	0.0000
season	0.20	18	20.000	10.000	15.000	17.000	21.000	1.000	4.5000	1.6000	0.5000	0.7500	0.8500	1.0500	0.0500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.7180
predicted_ER	0.9830
predicted_ERA	7.6922
predicted_H	1.2400
predicted_HR	0.0120
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.2980
predicted_WHIP	1.7028

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.7180	0.4667	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.9830	0.6390	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	7.6922	7.6922	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.2400	0.8060	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0120	0.0078	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.0000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.2980	0.8437	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.7028	1.7028	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	7

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	8
Pitching_ER	5
Pitching_ERA	5.40
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	2
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	27
Pitching_R	5
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	14
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	683175
playerID	683175
playerName	Connor Phillips
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CIN
teamID	7

Tony Santillan (663574) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 17

All-history rows before 20260509: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.529	4.000	-0.529	-4.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.894	0.000	0.206	1.100
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.941	0.000	1.059	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	5.000	8.000	3.000	4.000	3.000	9.0000	2.2000	1.0000	1.6000	0.6000	0.8000	0.6000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	5.000	10.000	4.000	8.000	3.000	4.6552	1.4483	0.5172	1.0345	0.4138	0.8276	0.3103
season	0.20	16	15.200	5.000	11.000	9.000	16.000	3.000	2.8723	1.2766	0.3191	0.7021	0.5745	1.0213	0.1915

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5300
predicted_ER	0.6950
predicted_ERA	6.2538
predicted_H	1.2220
predicted_HR	0.4170
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8540
predicted_WHIP	1.7522

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.5300	0.6945	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.6950	0.4517	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	6.2538	6.2538	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.2220	0.7943	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.4170	0.2711	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.0000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.8540	1.2551	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.7522	1.7522	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	2
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	22

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	4
Pitching_ERA	5.17
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	4
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_HOU@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	663574
playerID	663574
playerName	Tony Santillan
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CIN
teamID	7

Brock Burke (656271) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 18

All-history rows before 20260509: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.744	0.200	0.256	0.800
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.167	1.000	-1.167	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	5.000	8.000	7.000	7.000	10.3846	3.4615	1.1539	1.8461	1.6154	1.6154
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	5.000	11.000	8.000	13.000	5.0000	2.1111	0.5556	1.2222	0.8889	1.4444
season	0.20	18	16.200	6.000	16.000	11.000	21.000	3.2400	1.6200	0.3600	0.9600	0.6600	1.2600

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.1700
predicted_ER	0.7860
predicted_ERA	7.0711
predicted_H	1.4510
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.4840
predicted_WHIP	2.6206

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	1.1700	0.7605	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.7860	0.5109	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	7.0711	7.0711	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.4510	0.9432	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.4840	0.9646	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	2.6206	2.6206	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.24
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	5
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	656271
playerID	656271
playerName	Brock Burke
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CIN
teamID	7

Graham Ashcraft (668933) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 18

All-history rows before 20260509: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.222	2.000	-0.222	-2.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.972	1.000	-0.772	-0.800
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.111	1.000	-1.111	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	2.000	5.000	5.000	6.000	1.000	3.1765	1.7647	0.3529	0.8823	0.8823	1.0588	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	2.000	7.000	9.000	9.000	1.000	1.6875	1.5000	0.1875	0.6562	0.8438	0.8438	0.0938
season	0.20	18	18.200	4.000	13.000	12.000	20.000	1.000	1.9286	1.3393	0.2143	0.6964	0.6429	1.0714	0.0536

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.8210
predicted_ER	0.2670
predicted_ERA	2.4058
predicted_H	0.7660
predicted_HR	0.1230
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9860
predicted_WHIP	1.5870

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.8210	0.5336	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2670	0.1736	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.4058	2.4058	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7660	0.4979	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1230	0.0800	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.9860	0.6409	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5870	1.5870	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	1.93
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	27
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	17
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	668933
playerID	668933
playerName	Graham Ashcraft
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CIN
teamID	7

20260509_LAA@TOR

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 1, "home_runs": 4, "confidence": 0.58, "home_win_probability": 0.58, "away_win_probability": 0.42000000000000004, "predicted_score_text": "LAA 1 - 4 TOR", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to final winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 3, "predicted_score_text": "LAA 2 - 3 TOR", "confidence": 0.58, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score", "final_prediction_synced": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "LAA 2 - 3 TOR", "winner": "TOR"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 1, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "LAA 1 - 4 TOR", "winner": "TOR"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": -1, "home_run_delta": 1, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"}}

Away Team: LAA

Josh Lowe (666139) · BATTER · LF · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 28

All-history rows before 20260509: 28

System season_avg: 0.1490

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1489

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.036	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.036	0.000	-0.036	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.357	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.357	3.000	-0.357	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.078	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.149	0.000	-0.149	0.000
predicted_BB	0.179	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.179	0.000	-0.179	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.088	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.198	0.000	-0.198	0.000
predicted_R	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.357	0.000	-0.357	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.036	0.000	-0.036	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.135	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.287	0.000	-0.287	0.000
predicted_SO	1.071	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.071	2.000	-1.071	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.036	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.357	-
predicted_AVG	0.078	-
predicted_BB	0.179	-
predicted_H	0.220	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.088	-
predicted_R	0.250	-
predicted_RBI	0.090	-
predicted_SLG	0.135	-
predicted_SO	1.071	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.018	-0.018
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.483	0.126
predicted_AVG	0.078	0.000
predicted_BB	0.087	-0.092
predicted_H	0.258	0.038
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.060	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.088	0.000
predicted_R	0.167	-0.083
predicted_RBI	0.103	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.135	0.000
predicted_SO	1.093	0.022

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.48), rates preserved: AVG=0.074 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	6.000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	0.000	10.000	0.1389	0.1389	0.2222	0.1389	0.0278	0.0278	0.0000	0.2778
season	0.20	28	-	94.000	14.000	1.000	4.000	10.000	7.000	5.000	30.000	0.1489	0.1980	0.2872	0.1489	0.0425	0.1064	0.0532	0.3191

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0080
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.5510
predicted_AVG	0.0784
predicted_BB	0.0380
predicted_H	0.2780
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.0650
predicted_OBP	0.0882
predicted_R	0.1220
predicted_RBI	0.1100
predicted_SLG	0.1352
predicted_SO	1.1050

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0360	0.0080	0.0178	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3570	3.5510	3.4831	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.0780	0.0784	0.0783	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1790	0.0380	0.0873	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.2200	0.2780	0.2577	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0650	0.0597	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.0880	0.0882	0.0881	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2500	0.1220	0.1668	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0900	0.1100	0.1030	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1350	0.1352	0.1351	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0710	1.1050	1.0931	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.149

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260508_LAA@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	666139
playerID	666139
playerName	Josh Lowe
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	LAA
teamID	13

Jorge Soler (624585) · BATTER · DH · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 35

All-history rows before 20260509: 35

System season_avg: 0.2300

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2302

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.640	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.600	4.000	-0.600	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.205	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.230	0.000	0.103	0.333
predicted_BB	0.486	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.486	0.000	0.514	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.750	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.829	0.000	0.171	1.000
predicted_HR	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.229	0.000	-0.229	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.318	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.000	0.167	0.500
predicted_R	0.543	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.543	0.000	-0.543	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.740	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.800	0.000	-0.800	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.421	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.460	0.000	-0.127	0.333
predicted_SO	1.343	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.343	2.000	-0.343	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.640	-
predicted_AVG	0.205	-
predicted_BB	0.486	-
predicted_H	0.750	-
predicted_HR	0.250	-
predicted_OBP	0.318	-
predicted_R	0.543	-
predicted_RBI	0.740	-
predicted_SLG	0.421	-
predicted_SO	1.343	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.068	-0.075
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.533	-0.107
predicted_AVG	0.205	0.000
predicted_BB	0.463	-0.023
predicted_H	0.727	-0.023
predicted_HBP	0.149	-
predicted_HR	0.243	-0.007
predicted_OBP	0.318	0.000
predicted_R	0.491	-0.052
predicted_RBI	0.719	-0.021
predicted_SLG	0.421	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.365	0.022

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.64), rates preserved: AVG=0.200 HR/AB=0.067

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	8.000	0.1765	0.3000	0.3529	0.1765	0.0588	0.1765	0.1177	0.4706
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	8.000	0.000	3.000	8.000	5.000	5.000	11.000	0.2286	0.3333	0.4857	0.2286	0.0857	0.2286	0.1429	0.3143
season	0.20	35	-	126.000	29.000	5.000	8.000	28.000	19.000	17.000	47.000	0.2302	0.3333	0.4603	0.2302	0.0635	0.2222	0.1349	0.3730

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0280
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.4750
predicted_AVG	0.2055
predicted_BB	0.4510
predicted_H	0.7140
predicted_HBP	0.1490
predicted_HR	0.2400
predicted_OBP	0.3183
predicted_R	0.4630
predicted_RBI	0.7080
predicted_SLG	0.4209
predicted_SO	1.3770

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.0280	0.0682	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6400	3.4750	3.5328	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2050	0.2055	0.2053	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4860	0.4510	0.4632	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7500	0.7140	0.7266	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1490	0.1490	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2500	0.2400	0.2435	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3180	0.3183	0.3182	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5430	0.4630	0.4910	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7400	0.7080	0.7192	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4210	0.4209	0.4209	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3430	1.3770	1.3651	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260508_LAA@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	624585
playerID	624585
playerName	Jorge Soler
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	LAA
teamID	13

Zach Neto (687263) · BATTER · SS · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 39

All-history rows before 20260509: 39

System season_avg: 0.2220

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2222

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.205	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.205	0.000	-0.205	0.000
predicted_3B	0.026	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_AB	4.290	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.923	4.000	0.077	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.206	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.222	0.250	-0.222	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.615	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.615	0.000	-0.615	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.103	0.000	-0.103	0.000
predicted_H	0.880	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.872	1.000	-0.872	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.304	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.250	-0.333	-0.250
predicted_R	0.667	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.600	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.462	0.000	-0.462	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.179	0.000	-0.179	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.421	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.405	0.250	-0.405	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.410	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.410	0.000	0.590	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.205	-
predicted_3B	0.026	-
predicted_AB	4.290	-
predicted_AVG	0.206	-
predicted_BB	0.615	-
predicted_H	0.880	-
predicted_HR	0.190	-
predicted_OBP	0.304	-
predicted_R	0.667	-
predicted_RBI	0.600	-
predicted_SLG	0.421	-
predicted_SO	1.410	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.096	-0.109
predicted_3B	0.097	0.071
predicted_AB	3.871	-0.419
predicted_AVG	0.206	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.565	-0.050
predicted_H	0.795	-0.085
predicted_HBP	0.043	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-0.020
predicted_OBP	0.304	0.000
predicted_R	0.674	0.007
predicted_RBI	0.541	-0.059
predicted_SLG	0.421	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.223	-0.187

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.29), rates preserved: AVG=0.185 HR/AB=0.040

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 4.290

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	3.000	3.000	0.2353	0.3333	0.5294	0.2353	0.0588	0.1765	0.1765	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	6.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	5.000	4.000	17.000	0.1579	0.2500	0.2895	0.1579	0.0263	0.1053	0.1053	0.4474
season	0.20	39	-	153.000	34.000	8.000	1.000	6.000	18.000	26.000	24.000	55.000	0.2222	0.3333	0.4052	0.2222	0.0392	0.1177	0.1569	0.3595

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0380
predicted_3B	0.1350
predicted_AB	3.6450
predicted_AVG	0.2056
predicted_BB	0.5380
predicted_H	0.7490
predicted_HBP	0.0430
predicted_HR	0.1590
predicted_OBP	0.3041
predicted_R	0.6780
predicted_RBI	0.5090
predicted_SLG	0.4206
predicted_SO	1.1220

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2050	0.0380	0.0964	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0260	0.1350	0.0969	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.2900	3.6450	3.8708	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2060	0.2056	0.2057	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6150	0.5380	0.5650	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8800	0.7490	0.7949	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0430	0.0430	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1900	0.1590	0.1699	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3040	0.3041	0.3041	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6670	0.6780	0.6742	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6000	0.5090	0.5409	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4210	0.4206	0.4207	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4100	1.1220	1.2228	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.222

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260508_LAA@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	687263
playerID	687263
playerName	Zach Neto
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	LAA
teamID	13

Nolan Schanuel (694384) · BATTER · 1B · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 35

All-history rows before 20260509: 35

System season_avg: 0.2570

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2571

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.257	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.257	0.000	-0.257	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.160	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	4.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.328	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.257	0.250	0.076	0.083
predicted_BB	0.286	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.286	0.000	0.714	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_H	1.370	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.029	1.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.086	0.000	0.914	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.344	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.307	0.250	0.193	0.250
predicted_R	0.371	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.371	0.000	0.629	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.280	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.571	0.000	0.429	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.464	1.333	1.333	Hitting_SLG	0.386	0.250	0.948	1.083
predicted_SO	0.686	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.686	2.000	0.314	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.257	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.160	-
predicted_AVG	0.328	-
predicted_BB	0.286	-
predicted_H	1.370	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.344	-
predicted_R	0.371	-
predicted_RBI	0.280	-
predicted_SLG	0.464	-
predicted_SO	0.686	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.412	0.155
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.079	-0.081
predicted_AVG	0.328	0.000
predicted_BB	0.138	-0.148
predicted_H	1.341	-0.029
predicted_HBP	0.040	-
predicted_HR	0.018	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.344	-0.000
predicted_R	0.409	0.038
predicted_RBI	0.277	-0.003
predicted_SLG	0.464	0.000
predicted_SO	0.759	0.073

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.16), rates preserved: AVG=0.322 HR/AB=0.004

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 4.160

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	7.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	0.000	5.000	0.3500	0.3500	0.5000	0.3500	0.0000	0.0500	0.0000	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	41.000	14.000	5.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	0.000	6.000	0.3415	0.3571	0.4634	0.3415	0.0000	0.0488	0.0000	0.1463
season	0.20	35	-	140.000	36.000	9.000	3.000	20.000	13.000	10.000	24.000	0.2571	0.3072	0.3857	0.2571	0.0214	0.1429	0.0714	0.1714

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.4960
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.0350
predicted_AVG	0.3284
predicted_BB	0.0580
predicted_H	1.3250
predicted_HBP	0.0400
predicted_HR	0.0170
predicted_OBP	0.3439
predicted_R	0.4290
predicted_RBI	0.2750
predicted_SLG	0.4643
predicted_SO	0.7990

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2570	0.4960	0.4123	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1600	4.0350	4.0788	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3280	0.3284	0.3283	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2860	0.0580	0.1378	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.3700	1.3250	1.3407	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0400	0.0400	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0170	0.0181	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3440	0.3439	0.3439	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3710	0.4290	0.4087	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2800	0.2750	0.2768	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4640	0.4643	0.4642	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6860	0.7990	0.7595	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.257

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260508_LAA@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	694384
playerID	694384
playerName	Nolan Schanuel
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	LAA
teamID	13

Jo Adell (666176) · BATTER · RF · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 39

All-history rows before 20260509: 39

System season_avg: 0.2660

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2662

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.077	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.077	1.000	-0.077	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.949	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.949	3.000	0.051	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.260	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.266	0.667	-0.016	-0.417
predicted_BB	0.103	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.103	0.000	-0.103	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.051	2.000	-0.051	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.103	0.000	-0.103	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.295	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.305	0.667	-0.055	-0.417
predicted_R	0.359	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.359	0.000	-0.359	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.538	0.000	-0.538	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.051	0.000	-0.051	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.317	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.364	1.000	-0.114	-0.750
predicted_SO	0.949	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.949	1.000	1.051	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.077	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.949	-
predicted_AVG	0.260	-
predicted_BB	0.103	-
predicted_H	1.000	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.295	-
predicted_R	0.359	-
predicted_RBI	0.320	-
predicted_SLG	0.317	-
predicted_SO	0.949	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.122	0.045
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.673	-0.276
predicted_AVG	0.260	0.000
predicted_BB	0.048	-0.055
predicted_H	0.947	-0.053
predicted_HBP	0.155	-
predicted_HR	0.019	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.295	-0.000
predicted_R	0.189	-0.170
predicted_RBI	0.304	-0.016
predicted_SLG	0.317	0.000
predicted_SO	1.067	0.118

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.95), rates preserved: AVG=0.240 HR/AB=0.005

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.949

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	6.000	0.2500	0.2941	0.3125	0.2500	0.0000	0.0625	0.0000	0.3750
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	10.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	11.000	0.2703	0.2895	0.2973	0.2703	0.0000	0.0811	0.0000	0.2973
season	0.20	39	-	154.000	41.000	3.000	4.000	21.000	14.000	4.000	37.000	0.2662	0.3049	0.3636	0.2662	0.0260	0.1364	0.0260	0.2403

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1460
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.5250
predicted_AVG	0.2603
predicted_BB	0.0180
predicted_H	0.9180
predicted_HBP	0.1550
predicted_HR	0.0180
predicted_OBP	0.2946
predicted_R	0.0970
predicted_RBI	0.2950
predicted_SLG	0.3174
predicted_SO	1.1310

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0770	0.1460	0.1218	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9490	3.5250	3.6734	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2600	0.2603	0.2602	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1030	0.0180	0.0478	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0000	0.9180	0.9467	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1550	0.1550	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0180	0.0187	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2950	0.2946	0.2947	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3590	0.0970	0.1887	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3200	0.2950	0.3037	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3170	0.3174	0.3173	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9490	1.1310	1.0673	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.266

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260508_LAA@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	666176
playerID	666176
playerName	Jo Adell
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	LAA
teamID	13

Yoán Moncada (660162) · BATTER · 3B · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 27

All-history rows before 20260509: 27

System season_avg: 0.1520

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1522

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.037	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.037	0.000	-0.037	0.000
predicted_AB	3.407	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.407	4.000	0.593	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.098	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.152	0.000	-0.152	0.000
predicted_BB	0.519	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.519	0.000	-0.519	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.519	0.000	-0.519	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.148	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.278	0.000	-0.278	0.000
predicted_R	0.296	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.296	0.000	-0.296	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.296	0.000	-0.296	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.122	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.272	0.000	-0.272	0.000
predicted_SO	1.444	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.444	1.000	0.556	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.037	-
predicted_AB	3.407	-
predicted_AVG	0.098	-
predicted_BB	0.519	-
predicted_H	0.310	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.148	-
predicted_R	0.296	-
predicted_RBI	0.060	-
predicted_SLG	0.122	-
predicted_SO	1.444	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.018	-0.019
predicted_AB	3.403	-0.004
predicted_AVG	0.098	0.000
predicted_BB	0.318	-0.202
predicted_H	0.326	0.016
predicted_HBP	0.015	-
predicted_HR	0.021	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.148	0.000
predicted_R	0.142	-0.154
predicted_RBI	0.059	-0.001
predicted_SLG	0.122	0.000
predicted_SO	1.480	0.036

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.41), rates preserved: AVG=0.096 HR/AB=0.006

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	8.000	0.0588	0.0588	0.0588	0.0588	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.4706
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	14.000	0.1176	0.1892	0.1176	0.1177	0.0000	0.0000	0.0882	0.4118
season	0.20	27	-	92.000	14.000	1.000	3.000	8.000	8.000	14.000	39.000	0.1522	0.2778	0.2717	0.1522	0.0326	0.0870	0.1522	0.4239

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.4010
predicted_AVG	0.0981
predicted_BB	0.2090
predicted_H	0.3340
predicted_HBP	0.0150
predicted_HR	0.0220
predicted_OBP	0.1482
predicted_R	0.0590
predicted_RBI	0.0590
predicted_SLG	0.1220
predicted_SO	1.4990

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0370	0.0070	0.0175	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4070	3.4010	3.4031	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.0980	0.0981	0.0981	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5190	0.2090	0.3175	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3100	0.3340	0.3256	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0150	0.0150	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0220	0.0213	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1480	0.1482	0.1481	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2960	0.0590	0.1419	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0600	0.0590	0.0593	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1220	0.1220	0.1220	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4440	1.4990	1.4798	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.152

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260508_LAA@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	660162
playerID	660162
playerName	Yoán Moncada
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	LAA
teamID	13

Vaughn Grissom (687093) · BATTER · 2B · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 14

All-history rows before 20260509: 14

System season_avg: 0.2920

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2917

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.308	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.692	2.000	2.000	Hitting_AB	3.429	3.000	-1.429	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.210	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.292	0.000	-0.292	0.000
predicted_BB	0.462	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.500	1.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.670	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.000	0.000	-1.000	0.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.279	0.333	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.368	0.250	-0.035	0.083
predicted_R	0.462	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.429	0.000	-0.429	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.378	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.438	0.000	-0.438	0.000
predicted_SO	0.154	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.143	1.000	1.857	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.308	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.692	-
predicted_AVG	0.210	-
predicted_BB	0.462	-
predicted_H	0.670	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.279	-
predicted_R	0.462	-
predicted_RBI	0.500	-
predicted_SLG	0.378	-
predicted_SO	0.154	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.236	-0.072
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.689	-0.003
predicted_AVG	0.210	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.408	-0.054
predicted_H	0.737	0.067
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.134	0.014
predicted_OBP	0.279	0.000
predicted_R	0.370	-0.092
predicted_RBI	0.547	0.047
predicted_SLG	0.378	0.000
predicted_SO	0.156	0.002

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.69), rates preserved: AVG=0.200 HR/AB=0.036

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-2.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	0.1111	0.2000	0.2778	0.1111	0.0556	0.1667	0.1111	0.0556
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	11.000	4.000	1.000	6.000	4.000	3.000	1.000	0.2895	0.3333	0.4737	0.2895	0.0263	0.1579	0.0790	0.0263
season	0.20	13	-	48.000	14.000	4.000	1.000	6.000	6.000	6.000	2.000	0.2917	0.3636	0.4375	0.2917	0.0208	0.1250	0.1250	0.0417

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1970
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.6880
predicted_AVG	0.2097
predicted_BB	0.3790
predicted_H	0.7730
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1420
predicted_OBP	0.2794
predicted_R	0.3200
predicted_RBI	0.5730
predicted_SLG	0.3783
predicted_SO	0.1570

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3080	0.1970	0.2359	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6920	3.6880	3.6894	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2100	0.2097	0.2098	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4620	0.3790	0.4081	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6700	0.7730	0.7369	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1420	0.1343	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2790	0.2794	0.2793	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4620	0.3200	0.3697	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5000	0.5730	0.5474	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3780	0.3783	0.3782	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.1540	0.1570	0.1560	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.292

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260506_CHW@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	687093
playerID	687093
playerName	Vaughn Grissom
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	LAA
teamID	13

Sebastián Rivero (665861) · BATTER · C · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 4

All-history rows before 20260509: 4

System season_avg: 0.2730

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2727

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.750	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.750	2.000	0.250	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.273	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.273	0.000	-0.273	0.000
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.660	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.750	0.000	-0.750	0.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.273	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.273	0.000	-0.273	0.000
predicted_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.273	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.273	0.000	-0.273	0.000
predicted_SO	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.750	-
predicted_AVG	0.273	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.660	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.273	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.000	-
predicted_SLG	0.273	-
predicted_SO	0.250	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.750	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.273	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.719	0.058
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.273	-0.000
predicted_R	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.273	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.250	0.000

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.75), rates preserved: AVG=0.261 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 4

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	4	-	11.000	3.000	1.000	0.2727	0.2727	0.2727	0.2727	0.0909
last_10	0.35	4	-	11.000	3.000	1.000	0.2727	0.2727	0.2727	0.2727	0.0909
season	0.20	4	-	11.000	3.000	1.000	0.2727	0.2727	0.2727	0.2727	0.0909

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.7500
predicted_AVG	0.2727
predicted_BB	0.0000
predicted_H	0.7500
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.2727
predicted_R	0.0000
predicted_RBI	0.0000
predicted_SLG	0.2727
predicted_SO	0.2500

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.7500	2.7500	2.7500	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2730	0.2727	0.2728	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6600	0.7500	0.7185	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2730	0.2727	0.2728	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2730	0.2727	0.2728	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.2500	0.2500	0.2500	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	4
Season rows before report date	4
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	4
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.273

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260508_LAA@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	665861
playerID	665861
playerName	Sebastián Rivero
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	LAA
teamID	13

Mike Trout (545361) · BATTER · CF · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 38

All-history rows before 20260509: 38

System season_avg: 0.2590

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2593

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.132	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.132	0.000	-0.132	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.690	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.553	4.000	0.447	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.293	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.259	0.250	-0.259	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.947	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.947	0.000	-0.947	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.921	1.000	-0.921	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.289	0.000	-0.289	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.416	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.425	0.250	-0.425	-0.250
predicted_R	0.842	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.842	0.000	-0.842	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.605	0.000	-0.605	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.132	0.000	-0.132	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.493	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.541	0.250	-0.541	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.105	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.105	2.000	0.895	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.132	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.690	-
predicted_AVG	0.293	-
predicted_BB	0.947	-
predicted_H	1.080	-
predicted_HR	0.220	-
predicted_OBP	0.416	-
predicted_R	0.842	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.493	-
predicted_SO	1.105	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.086	-0.046
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.626	-0.064
predicted_AVG	0.293	0.000
predicted_BB	0.790	-0.157
predicted_H	1.063	-0.017
predicted_HBP	0.051	-
predicted_HR	0.219	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.416	-0.000
predicted_R	0.658	-0.184
predicted_RBI	0.411	-0.009
predicted_SLG	0.493	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.303	0.198

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.69), rates preserved: AVG=0.288 HR/AB=0.059

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	7.000	0.2778	0.3810	0.4444	0.2778	0.0556	0.1111	0.1667	0.3889
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	12.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	6.000	7.000	16.000	0.3333	0.4545	0.5278	0.3333	0.0556	0.0833	0.1944	0.4444
season	0.20	38	-	135.000	35.000	5.000	11.000	23.000	32.000	36.000	42.000	0.2593	0.4253	0.5407	0.2593	0.0815	0.1704	0.2667	0.3111

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0620
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.5910
predicted_AVG	0.2935
predicted_BB	0.7050
predicted_H	1.0540
predicted_HBP	0.0510
predicted_HR	0.2180
predicted_OBP	0.4156
predicted_R	0.5590
predicted_RBI	0.4070
predicted_SLG	0.4929
predicted_SO	1.4100

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1320	0.0620	0.0865	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6900	3.5910	3.6257	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2930	0.2935	0.2933	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.9470	0.7050	0.7897	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0800	1.0540	1.0631	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0510	0.0510	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2200	0.2180	0.2187	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4160	0.4156	0.4157	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8420	0.5590	0.6581	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.4070	0.4115	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4930	0.4929	0.4929	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1050	1.4100	1.3033	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.259

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260508_LAA@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	545361
playerID	545361
playerName	Mike Trout
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	LAA
teamID	13

Jack Kochanowicz (686799) · PITCHER · Starter · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 7

All-history rows before 20260509: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_ER	2.000	2.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_IP	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.671	6.100	-3.671	-4.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	4.286	6.000	-3.286	-5.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 2.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	31.200	9.000	21.000	14.000	20.000	2.000	2.5579	1.1053	0.2842	0.6632	0.4421	0.6316	0.0632
last_10	0.35	7	41.100	14.000	29.000	21.000	30.000	2.000	3.0484	1.2097	0.3387	0.7016	0.5081	0.7258	0.0484
season	0.20	7	41.100	14.000	29.000	21.000	30.000	2.000	3.0484	1.2097	0.3387	0.7016	0.5081	0.7258	0.0484

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.9420
predicted_ER	1.9320
predicted_ERA	2.8277
predicted_H	4.2080
predicted_HR	0.3380
predicted_IP	6.0000
predicted_SO	4.2030
predicted_WHIP	1.1627

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	2.9420	2.2623	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	1.9320	2.3058	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.8277	2.8277	form_only
predicted_H	6.0000	4.2080	4.8352	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.3380	0.2197	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	2.0000	6.0000	4.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	4.2030	3.0820	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1627	1.1627	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.0
H	6
R	3
ER	3
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	14
Pitches	51

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	28
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	3.05
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	9
Pitching_H	5
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.1
Pitching_Pitches	110
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	6
Pitching_Strikes	62
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_NYM@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	686799
playerID	686799
playerName	Jack Kochanowicz
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	LAA
teamID	13

Sam Bachman (696147) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 13

All-history rows before 20260509: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.538	1.000	-0.538	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.238	1.200	-0.038	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.615	3.000	-0.615	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.100	3.000	4.000	2.000	7.000	2.000	4.2632	0.9474	0.4737	0.6316	0.3158	1.1053	0.3158
last_10	0.35	10	15.000	7.000	10.000	6.000	16.000	2.000	4.2000	1.0667	0.4667	0.6667	0.4000	1.0667	0.1333
season	0.20	13	18.200	7.000	11.000	10.000	21.000	2.000	3.3750	1.1250	0.3750	0.5893	0.5357	1.1250	0.1071

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5190
predicted_ER	0.6020
predicted_ERA	4.0634
predicted_H	0.8470
predicted_HR	0.2800
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.4610
predicted_WHIP	1.0247

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.5190	0.6874	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.6020	0.3913	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.0634	4.0634	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8470	0.5505	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2800	0.1820	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.4610	1.2997	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0247	1.0247	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	22

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	3.38
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.2
Pitching_Pitches	20
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	15
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_CHW@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	696147
playerID	696147
playerName	Sam Bachman
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAA
teamID	13

Chase Silseth (681217) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 17

All-history rows before 20260509: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.235	0.000	-0.235	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.606	2.000	0.494	-0.900
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.824	4.000	-0.824	-4.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	2.000	6.000	4.000	4.000	0.000	3.8571	2.1429	0.4286	1.2857	0.8571	0.8571	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.100	3.000	8.000	8.000	8.000	0.000	3.2400	1.9200	0.3600	0.9600	0.9600	0.9600	0.0000
season	0.20	17	13.100	4.000	12.000	10.000	14.000	1.000	2.7000	1.6500	0.3000	0.9000	0.7500	1.0500	0.0750

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.7120
predicted_ER	0.3090
predicted_ERA	3.4097
predicted_H	0.8940
predicted_HR	0.0120
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.7610
predicted_WHIP	1.9663

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.7120	0.4628	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3090	0.2009	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.4097	3.4097	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.8940	0.9311	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0120	0.0078	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	0.2000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.7610	0.4947	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.9663	1.9663	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.70
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	28
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	4
Pitching_Strikes	17
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_CHW@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	681217
playerID	681217
playerName	Chase Silseth
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAA
teamID	13

Brent Suter (608718) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 15

All-history rows before 20260509: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.380	1.000	-0.380	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.467	2.000	-1.467	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	4.000	5.000	2.000	5.000	1.000	8.3077	1.6154	0.9231	1.1539	0.4615	1.1539	0.2308
last_10	0.35	10	13.000	7.000	12.000	6.000	11.000	2.000	4.8462	1.3846	0.5385	0.9231	0.4615	0.8461	0.1538
season	0.20	15	22.100	10.000	20.000	10.000	22.000	3.000	4.0299	1.3433	0.4478	0.8955	0.4478	0.9851	0.1343

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5430
predicted_ER	0.8210
predicted_ERA	6.2406
predicted_H	1.2090
predicted_HR	0.2180
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.1980
predicted_WHIP	1.4802

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5430	0.3530	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.8210	0.5336	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	6.2406	6.2406	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.2090	1.1359	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2180	0.1417	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.1000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.1980	0.7787	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4802	1.4802	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.03
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_LAA@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	608718
playerID	608718
playerName	Brent Suter
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAA
teamID	13

Kirby Yates (489446) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 1

All-history rows before 20260509: 1

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.000	1.000	-0.800	-0.800
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total H	Total SO	WHIP	H_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	1	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000
last_10	0.35	1	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000
season	0.20	1	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.0000
predicted_ER	0.0000
predicted_ERA	0.0000
predicted_H	1.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0000
predicted_WHIP	1.0000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.0000	0.6500	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.0000	0.6500	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0000	1.0000	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	1
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.00
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	24
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	15
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_LAA@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	489446
playerID	489446
playerName	Kirby Yates
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAA
teamID	13

Ryan Zeferjahn (666171) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 13

All-history rows before 20260509: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.769	0.000	-0.769	0.000
predicted_IP	0.100	0.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.369	1.100	-1.269	-1.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.923	3.000	-0.923	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 0.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	8.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	11.000	1.1250	0.6250	0.1250	0.1250	0.5000	1.3750
last_10	0.35	10	15.000	8.000	10.000	9.000	17.000	4.8000	1.2667	0.5333	0.6667	0.6000	1.1333
season	0.20	13	19.200	10.000	11.000	11.000	25.000	4.5763	1.1186	0.5085	0.5593	0.5593	1.2712

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.8480
predicted_ER	0.5340
predicted_ERA	3.1015
predicted_H	0.6220
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.2000
predicted_SO	1.9680
predicted_WHIP	0.9483

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.8480	0.5512	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5340	0.3471	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.1015	3.1015	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.6220	0.7543	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	1.2000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.9680	1.6292	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9483	0.9483	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.58
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	33
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	16
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_CHW@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	666171
playerID	666171
playerName	Ryan Zeferjahn
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAA
teamID	13

Drew Pomeranz (519141) · PITCHER · Reliever · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 16

All-history rows before 20260509: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.750	0.000	0.250	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.788	0.100	0.212	0.900
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.750	1.000	2.250	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.200	3.000	5.000	2.000	5.000	2.000	7.3636	1.9091	0.8182	1.3636	0.5454	1.3636	0.5454
last_10	0.35	10	8.100	8.000	12.000	4.000	9.000	3.000	8.6400	1.9200	0.9600	1.4400	0.4800	1.0800	0.3600
season	0.20	16	14.000	12.000	17.000	7.000	12.000	4.000	7.7143	1.7143	0.8571	1.2143	0.5000	0.8571	0.2857

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3770
predicted_ER	0.6420
predicted_ERA	7.8805
predicted_H	0.9980
predicted_HR	0.3140
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.8530
predicted_WHIP	1.8740

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3770	0.2451	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.6420	0.7673	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	7.8805	7.8805	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.9980	0.9987	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.3140	0.2041	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	0.8530	1.6044	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.8740	1.8740	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	3
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	2
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	7.71
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	3
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_CHW@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	519141
playerID	519141
playerName	Drew Pomeranz
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAA
teamID	13

Home Team: TOR

Kazuma Okamoto (672960) · BATTER · 3B · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 37

All-history rows before 20260509: 37

System season_avg: 0.2480

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2482

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.081	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.081	0.000	-0.081	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.750	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.703	3.000	-0.703	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.248	0.333	-0.248	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.486	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.486	1.000	-0.486	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.919	1.000	-0.919	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.410	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.270	0.000	-0.270	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.415	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.335	0.500	-0.085	-0.250
predicted_R	0.514	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.514	0.000	-0.514	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.950	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.649	1.000	-0.649	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.681	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.489	0.333	-0.489	-0.333
predicted_SO	1.216	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.216	1.000	-1.216	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.081	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.750	-
predicted_AVG	0.310	-
predicted_BB	0.486	-
predicted_H	1.160	-
predicted_HR	0.410	-
predicted_OBP	0.415	-
predicted_R	0.514	-
predicted_RBI	0.950	-
predicted_SLG	0.681	-
predicted_SO	1.216	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.121	0.040
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.712	-0.038
predicted_AVG	0.310	0.000
predicted_BB	0.606	0.120
predicted_H	1.150	-0.010
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.409	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.415	-0.000
predicted_R	0.521	0.007
predicted_RBI	0.944	-0.006
predicted_SLG	0.681	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.224	0.008

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.75), rates preserved: AVG=0.307 HR/AB=0.109

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	4.000	7.000	0.3333	0.4545	0.7222	0.3333	0.1111	0.2222	0.2222	0.3889
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	12.000	1.000	5.000	13.000	7.000	6.000	10.000	0.3158	0.4091	0.7368	0.3158	0.1316	0.3421	0.1579	0.2632
season	0.20	37	-	137.000	34.000	3.000	10.000	24.000	19.000	18.000	45.000	0.2482	0.3355	0.4891	0.2482	0.0730	0.1752	0.1314	0.3285

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1420
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.6910
predicted_AVG	0.3102
predicted_BB	0.6700
predicted_H	1.1450
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.4080
predicted_OBP	0.4148
predicted_R	0.5250
predicted_RBI	0.9400
predicted_SLG	0.6807
predicted_SO	1.2280

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0810	0.1420	0.1206	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7500	3.6910	3.7117	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3100	0.3102	0.3101	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4860	0.6700	0.6056	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1600	1.1450	1.1502	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.4100	0.4080	0.4087	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4150	0.4148	0.4149	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5140	0.5250	0.5212	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.9500	0.9400	0.9435	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6810	0.6807	0.6808	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2160	1.2280	1.2238	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.248

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260508_LAA@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	672960
playerID	672960
playerName	Kazuma Okamoto
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	TOR
teamID	29

Daulton Varsho (662139) · BATTER · CF · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 32

All-history rows before 20260509: 32

System season_avg: 0.2270

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2269

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.188	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.188	0.000	-0.188	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.719	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.719	3.000	0.281	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.213	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.227	0.000	-0.227	0.000
predicted_BB	0.375	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.375	1.000	-0.375	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.750	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.844	0.000	-0.844	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.308	0.250	-0.308	-0.250
predicted_R	0.469	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.469	0.000	-0.469	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.210	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.281	0.000	-0.281	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.342	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.378	0.000	-0.378	0.000
predicted_SO	0.719	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.719	1.000	-0.719	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.188	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.719	-
predicted_AVG	0.213	-
predicted_BB	0.375	-
predicted_H	0.750	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.320	-
predicted_R	0.469	-
predicted_RBI	0.210	-
predicted_SLG	0.342	-
predicted_SO	0.719	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.253	0.065
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.657	-0.062
predicted_AVG	0.213	0.000
predicted_BB	0.470	0.095
predicted_H	0.765	0.015
predicted_HBP	0.047	-
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.320	0.000
predicted_R	0.479	0.010
predicted_RBI	0.214	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.342	0.000
predicted_SO	0.807	0.088

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.72), rates preserved: AVG=0.206 HR/AB=0.016

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, BvP AVG=0.800)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	2.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	0.2222	0.3333	0.3333	0.2222	0.0000	0.0556	0.1667	0.2222
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	5.000	10.000	0.1944	0.3095	0.3333	0.1944	0.0278	0.0556	0.1389	0.2778
season	0.20	32	-	119.000	27.000	6.000	4.000	9.000	15.000	12.000	23.000	0.2269	0.3083	0.3782	0.2269	0.0336	0.0756	0.1008	0.1933

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2880
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.6240
predicted_AVG	0.2134
predicted_BB	0.5210
predicted_H	0.7730
predicted_HBP	0.0470
predicted_HR	0.0600
predicted_OBP	0.3200
predicted_R	0.4840
predicted_RBI	0.2160
predicted_SLG	0.3423
predicted_SO	0.8550

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1880	0.2880	0.2530	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7190	3.6240	3.6573	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2130	0.2134	0.2133	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3750	0.5210	0.4699	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7500	0.7730	0.7650	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0470	0.0470	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0600	0.0600	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3200	0.3200	0.3200	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4690	0.4840	0.4788	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2100	0.2160	0.2139	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3420	0.3423	0.3422	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7190	0.8550	0.8074	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.227

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260508_LAA@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	662139
playerID	662139
playerName	Daulton Varsho
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	TOR
teamID	29

Andrés Giménez (665926) · BATTER · SS · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 33

All-history rows before 20260509: 33

System season_avg: 0.2620

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2623

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_3B	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_AB	3.697	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.697	3.000	-0.697	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.238	0.667	0.667	Hitting_AVG	0.262	0.000	0.404	0.667
predicted_BB	0.121	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.121	0.000	0.879	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.770	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.970	0.000	1.030	2.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.268	0.750	0.750	Hitting_OBP	0.289	0.000	0.461	0.750
predicted_R	0.303	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.303	0.000	0.697	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.330	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.515	0.000	-0.515	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.152	0.000	-0.152	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.284	0.667	0.667	Hitting_SLG	0.402	0.000	0.265	0.667
predicted_SO	0.606	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.606	1.000	0.394	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	-
predicted_3B	0.030	-
predicted_AB	3.697	-
predicted_AVG	0.238	-
predicted_BB	0.121	-
predicted_H	0.770	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.268	-
predicted_R	0.303	-
predicted_RBI	0.330	-
predicted_SLG	0.284	-
predicted_SO	0.606	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.132	-0.050
predicted_3B	0.014	-0.016
predicted_AB	3.669	-0.028
predicted_AVG	0.238	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.058	-0.063
predicted_H	0.834	0.064
predicted_HBP	0.132	-
predicted_HR	0.019	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.268	0.000
predicted_R	0.249	-0.054
predicted_RBI	0.353	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.284	0.000
predicted_SO	0.603	-0.003

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.70), rates preserved: AVG=0.226 HR/AB=0.005

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	0.2222	0.2632	0.2222	0.2222	0.0000	0.0556	0.0000	0.1667
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	9.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	6.000	0.2432	0.2632	0.2973	0.2432	0.0000	0.1351	0.0000	0.1622
season	0.20	33	-	122.000	32.000	6.000	1.000	3.000	17.000	10.000	4.000	20.000	0.2623	0.2891	0.4016	0.2623	0.0246	0.1393	0.0328	0.1639

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1050
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.6540
predicted_AVG	0.2376
predicted_BB	0.0240
predicted_H	0.8680
predicted_HBP	0.1320
predicted_HR	0.0180
predicted_OBP	0.2684
predicted_R	0.2200
predicted_RBI	0.3660
predicted_SLG	0.2844
predicted_SO	0.6010

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1820	0.1050	0.1320	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0300	0.0060	0.0144	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6970	3.6540	3.6691	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2380	0.2376	0.2377	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1210	0.0240	0.0580	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7700	0.8680	0.8337	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1320	0.1320	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0180	0.0187	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2680	0.2684	0.2683	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3030	0.2200	0.2490	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3300	0.3660	0.3534	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2840	0.2844	0.2843	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6060	0.6010	0.6028	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.262

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260508_LAA@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	665926
playerID	665926
playerName	Andrés Giménez
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	TOR
teamID	29

Jesús Sánchez (660821) · BATTER · LF · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 27

All-history rows before 20260509: 27

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.148	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.148	0.000	-0.148	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.704	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.704	4.000	0.296	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.215	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_BB	0.185	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.185	0.000	-0.185	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.780	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.926	0.000	-0.926	0.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.148	0.000	-0.148	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.284	0.000	-0.284	0.000
predicted_R	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.519	0.000	-0.519	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.037	0.000	-0.037	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.311	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.410	0.000	-0.410	0.000
predicted_SO	0.741	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.741	2.000	0.259	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.148	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.704	-
predicted_AVG	0.215	-
predicted_BB	0.185	-
predicted_H	0.780	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.222	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.230	-
predicted_SLG	0.311	-
predicted_SO	0.741	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.097	-0.051
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.929	0.225
predicted_AVG	0.215	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.091	-0.094
predicted_H	0.839	0.058
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.105	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.222	-0.000
predicted_R	0.237	-0.096
predicted_RBI	0.252	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.311	0.000
predicted_SO	0.798	0.057

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.93), rates preserved: AVG=0.213 HR/AB=0.027

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	22.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	0.1818	0.1818	0.1818	0.1818	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.1818
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	9.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	0.000	9.000	0.2368	0.2368	0.4211	0.2368	0.0526	0.1053	0.0000	0.2368
season	0.20	27	-	100.000	25.000	4.000	4.000	14.000	9.000	5.000	20.000	0.2500	0.2844	0.4100	0.2500	0.0400	0.1400	0.0500	0.2000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0700
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.0510
predicted_AVG	0.2147
predicted_BB	0.0410
predicted_H	0.8700
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.1070
predicted_OBP	0.2216
predicted_R	0.1850
predicted_RBI	0.2630
predicted_SLG	0.3112
predicted_SO	0.8290

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1480	0.0700	0.0973	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7040	4.0510	3.9295	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2150	0.2147	0.2148	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1850	0.0410	0.0914	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7800	0.8700	0.8385	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1070	0.1046	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2220	0.2216	0.2217	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.1850	0.2368	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2300	0.2630	0.2515	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3110	0.3112	0.3111	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7410	0.8290	0.7982	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260505_TOR@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	660821
playerID	660821
playerName	Jesús Sánchez
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	TOR
teamID	29

George Springer (543807) · BATTER · DH · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 20

All-history rows before 20260509: 20

System season_avg: 0.1870

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1867

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	0.800	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.130	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.750	3.000	0.250	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.170	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.187	0.333	0.063	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.450	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.450	0.000	0.550	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_H	0.700	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.700	1.000	0.300	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.259	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.282	0.333	0.118	0.067
predicted_R	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.250	1.000	-0.250	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.300	0.000	-0.300	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.227	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.320	0.333	0.180	0.167
predicted_SO	0.850	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.850	1.000	0.150	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.130	-
predicted_AVG	0.170	-
predicted_BB	0.450	-
predicted_H	0.700	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.259	-
predicted_R	0.250	-
predicted_RBI	0.190	-
predicted_SLG	0.227	-
predicted_SO	0.850	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.163	-0.037
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.724	-0.406
predicted_AVG	0.170	0.000
predicted_BB	0.341	-0.109
predicted_H	0.633	-0.067
predicted_HBP	0.137	-
predicted_HR	0.019	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.259	-0.000
predicted_R	0.224	-0.026
predicted_RBI	0.171	-0.019
predicted_SLG	0.227	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.613	-0.237

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.13), rates preserved: AVG=0.153 HR/AB=0.005

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, BvP AVG=0.167)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 4.130

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	0.1176	0.2105	0.1176	0.1177	0.0000	0.0000	0.0588	0.1177
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	8.000	3.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	0.2286	0.3077	0.3143	0.2286	0.0000	0.0857	0.0857	0.1143
season	0.20	20	-	75.000	14.000	4.000	2.000	6.000	5.000	9.000	17.000	0.1867	0.2824	0.3200	0.1867	0.0267	0.0800	0.1200	0.2267

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1430
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.5050
predicted_AVG	0.1703
predicted_BB	0.2820
predicted_H	0.5970
predicted_HBP	0.1370
predicted_HR	0.0190
predicted_OBP	0.2589
predicted_R	0.2100
predicted_RBI	0.1610
predicted_SLG	0.2269
predicted_SO	0.4850

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.1430	0.1629	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1300	3.5050	3.7237	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1700	0.1703	0.1702	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4500	0.2820	0.3408	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7000	0.5970	0.6331	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1370	0.1370	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0190	0.0193	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2590	0.2589	0.2589	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2500	0.2100	0.2240	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1900	0.1610	0.1711	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2270	0.2269	0.2269	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8500	0.4850	0.6127	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.187

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260508_LAA@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	543807
playerID	543807
playerName	George Springer
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	TOR
teamID	29

Addison Barger (680718) · BATTER · RF · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 5

All-history rows before 20260509: 5

System season_avg: 0.0590

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.0588

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	2.000	2.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	1.800	2.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.540	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.400	3.000	0.600	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.059	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.059	0.000	0.441	0.500
predicted_BB	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.210	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.200	0.000	1.800	2.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.111	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.111	0.000	0.389	0.500
predicted_R	0.200	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.200	0.000	0.800	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.210	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.200	0.000	0.800	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.118	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SLG	0.118	0.000	0.882	1.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.540	-
predicted_AVG	0.059	-
predicted_BB	0.200	-
predicted_H	0.210	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.111	-
predicted_R	0.200	-
predicted_RBI	0.210	-
predicted_SLG	0.118	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.449	-0.091
predicted_AVG	0.059	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.200	0.000
predicted_H	0.203	-0.007
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.111	0.000
predicted_R	0.200	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.203	-0.007
predicted_SLG	0.118	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	0.000

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.54), rates preserved: AVG=0.057 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, BvP AVG=0.400)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	2.000	2.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 5

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.0588	0.1111	0.1176	0.0588	0.0588	0.0588	0.2941
last_10	0.35	5	-	17.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.0588	0.1111	0.1176	0.0588	0.0588	0.0588	0.2941
season	0.20	5	-	17.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.0588	0.1111	0.1176	0.0588	0.0588	0.0588	0.2941

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.4000
predicted_AVG	0.0588
predicted_BB	0.2000
predicted_H	0.2000
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.1111
predicted_R	0.2000
predicted_RBI	0.2000
predicted_SLG	0.1176
predicted_SO	1.0000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5400	3.4000	3.4490	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.0590	0.0588	0.0589	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.2100	0.2000	0.2035	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1110	0.1111	0.1111	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2100	0.2000	0.2035	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1180	0.1176	0.1177	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	5
Season rows before report date	5
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	5
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	2
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.059

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260405_TOR@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	680718
playerID	680718
playerName	Addison Barger
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	TOR
teamID	29

Brandon Valenzuela (678218) · BATTER · C · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 16

All-history rows before 20260509: 16

System season_avg: 0.2040

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2041

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.062	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.062	2.000	0.938	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.216	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.204	0.000	-0.204	0.000
predicted_BB	0.312	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.312	1.000	-0.312	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.560	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.625	0.000	-0.625	0.000
predicted_HR	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.188	0.000	-0.188	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.324	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.278	0.333	-0.278	-0.333
predicted_R	0.375	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.430	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.417	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.388	0.000	-0.388	0.000
predicted_SO	1.125	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.125	1.000	-0.125	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.062	-
predicted_AVG	0.216	-
predicted_BB	0.312	-
predicted_H	0.560	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.324	-
predicted_R	0.375	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.417	-
predicted_SO	1.125	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.994	-0.068
predicted_AVG	0.216	0.000
predicted_BB	0.420	0.108
predicted_H	0.612	0.052
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.188	0.018
predicted_OBP	0.324	0.000
predicted_R	0.327	-0.048
predicted_RBI	0.470	0.040
predicted_SLG	0.417	0.000
predicted_SO	0.977	-0.148

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.06), rates preserved: AVG=0.200 HR/AB=0.061

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	0.2143	0.3529	0.4286	0.2143	0.0714	0.2143	0.2143	0.2857
last_10	0.35	10	-	31.000	7.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	4.000	9.000	0.2258	0.3143	0.4194	0.2258	0.0645	0.1290	0.1290	0.2903
season	0.20	16	-	49.000	10.000	3.000	6.000	6.000	5.000	18.000	0.2041	0.2778	0.3878	0.2041	0.0612	0.1225	0.1020	0.3674

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.9570
predicted_AVG	0.2163
predicted_BB	0.4790
predicted_H	0.6400
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1980
predicted_OBP	0.3244
predicted_R	0.3010
predicted_RBI	0.4910
predicted_SLG	0.4172
predicted_SO	0.8980

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0620	2.9570	2.9937	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2160	0.2163	0.2162	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3120	0.4790	0.4205	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5600	0.6400	0.6120	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.1980	0.1882	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3240	0.3244	0.3243	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3750	0.3010	0.3269	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.4910	0.4697	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4170	0.4172	0.4171	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1250	0.8980	0.9774	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.204

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260508_LAA@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	678218
playerID	678218
playerName	Brandon Valenzuela
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	TOR
teamID	29

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (665489) · BATTER · 1B · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 37

All-history rows before 20260509: 37

System season_avg: 0.3160

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3162

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.189	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.189	0.000	-0.189	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.830	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.676	2.000	0.324	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.222	0.750	0.750	Hitting_AVG	0.316	0.000	0.434	0.750
predicted_BB	0.514	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.514	2.000	-0.514	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.850	3.000	3.000	Hitting_H	1.162	0.000	1.838	3.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.054	0.000	-0.054	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.329	0.750	0.750	Hitting_OBP	0.408	0.500	0.342	0.250
predicted_R	0.595	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.595	1.000	0.405	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.260	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	0.432	0.000	1.568	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.054	0.000	-0.054	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.251	0.750	0.750	Hitting_SLG	0.412	0.000	0.338	0.750
predicted_SO	0.514	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.514	0.000	-0.514	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.189	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.830	-
predicted_AVG	0.222	-
predicted_BB	0.514	-
predicted_H	0.850	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.329	-
predicted_R	0.595	-
predicted_RBI	0.260	-
predicted_SLG	0.251	-
predicted_SO	0.514	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.114	-0.075
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.749	-0.081
predicted_AVG	0.222	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.535	0.021
predicted_H	0.832	-0.018
predicted_HBP	0.047	-
predicted_HR	0.011	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.329	0.000
predicted_R	0.621	0.026
predicted_RBI	0.252	-0.009
predicted_SLG	0.251	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.616	0.102

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.83), rates preserved: AVG=0.217 HR/AB=0.003

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, BvP AVG=0.500)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.830

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	0.1579	0.2727	0.1579	0.1579	0.0000	0.0526	0.1579	0.2105
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	9.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	7.000	5.000	6.000	0.2500	0.3571	0.2778	0.2500	0.0000	0.0556	0.1389	0.1667
season	0.20	37	-	136.000	43.000	7.000	2.000	16.000	22.000	19.000	19.000	0.3162	0.4076	0.4118	0.3162	0.0147	0.1177	0.1397	0.1397

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0740
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7050
predicted_AVG	0.2218
predicted_BB	0.5470
predicted_H	0.8220
predicted_HBP	0.0470
predicted_HR	0.0110
predicted_OBP	0.3292
predicted_R	0.6350
predicted_RBI	0.2470
predicted_SLG	0.2506
predicted_SO	0.6710

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1890	0.0740	0.1142	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8300	3.7050	3.7488	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2220	0.2218	0.2219	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5140	0.5470	0.5354	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8500	0.8220	0.8318	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0470	0.0470	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0110	0.0106	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3290	0.3292	0.3291	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5950	0.6350	0.6210	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2600	0.2470	0.2515	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2510	0.2506	0.2507	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5140	0.6710	0.6160	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	3
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.316

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260508_LAA@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	665489
playerID	665489
playerName	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	TOR
teamID	29

Ernie Clement (676391) · BATTER · 2B · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 37

All-history rows before 20260509: 37

System season_avg: 0.2750

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2752

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.351	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.351	0.000	0.649	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.027	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.027	3.000	-0.027	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.152	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.275	0.000	0.225	0.500
predicted_BB	0.135	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.135	0.000	-0.135	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.570	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	1.108	0.000	0.892	2.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.202	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.297	0.000	0.203	0.500
predicted_R	0.297	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.297	0.000	0.703	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.250	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.270	1.000	0.730	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.202	0.750	0.750	Hitting_SLG	0.383	0.000	0.367	0.750
predicted_SO	0.297	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.297	1.000	0.703	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.351	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.027	-
predicted_AVG	0.152	-
predicted_BB	0.135	-
predicted_H	0.570	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.202	-
predicted_R	0.297	-
predicted_RBI	0.250	-
predicted_SLG	0.202	-
predicted_SO	0.297	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.165	-0.186
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.827	-0.200
predicted_AVG	0.152	0.000
predicted_BB	0.216	0.081
predicted_H	0.568	-0.002
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.202	-0.000
predicted_R	0.185	-0.112
predicted_RBI	0.249	-0.001
predicted_SLG	0.202	0.000
predicted_SO	0.246	-0.051

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.03), rates preserved: AVG=0.141 HR/AB=0.010

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, BvP AVG=0.250)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 4.027

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	0.1111	0.1500	0.1111	0.1111	0.0000	0.0556	0.0556	0.0556
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	0.1351	0.2143	0.2162	0.1351	0.0270	0.0811	0.1081	0.0541
season	0.20	37	-	149.000	41.000	13.000	1.000	10.000	11.000	5.000	11.000	0.2752	0.2968	0.3826	0.2752	0.0067	0.0671	0.0336	0.0738

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0650
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7200
predicted_AVG	0.1523
predicted_BB	0.2590
predicted_H	0.5670
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0400
predicted_OBP	0.2019
predicted_R	0.1250
predicted_RBI	0.2490
predicted_SLG	0.2022
predicted_SO	0.2180

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3510	0.0650	0.1651	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0270	3.7200	3.8274	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1520	0.1523	0.1522	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1350	0.2590	0.2156	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5700	0.5670	0.5680	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0400	0.0400	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2020	0.2019	0.2019	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2970	0.1250	0.1852	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2500	0.2490	0.2493	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2020	0.2022	0.2021	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.2970	0.2180	0.2456	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.275

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260508_LAA@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	676391
playerID	676391
playerName	Ernie Clement
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	TOR
teamID	29

Trey Yesavage (702056) · PITCHER · Starter · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 2

All-history rows before 20260509: 2

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_IP	4.100	4.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.550	4.000	-0.450	0.100
predicted_SO	7.000	7.000	-	Pitching_SO	4.500	6.000	2.500	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 4.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	2	9.100	1.000	9.000	3.000	9.000	0.9643	1.2857	0.1071	0.9643	0.3214	0.9643
last_10	0.35	2	9.100	1.000	9.000	3.000	9.000	0.9643	1.2857	0.1071	0.9643	0.3214	0.9643
season	0.20	2	9.100	1.000	9.000	3.000	9.000	0.9643	1.2857	0.1071	0.9643	0.3214	0.9643

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.5000
predicted_ER	0.5000
predicted_ERA	0.9643
predicted_H	4.5000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	4.2000
predicted_SO	4.5000
predicted_WHIP	1.2857

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	1.5000	2.0250	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5000	0.3250	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.9643	0.9643	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	4.5000	2.9250	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.1000	4.2000	4.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	7.0000	4.5000	5.3750	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2857	1.2857	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	3
SO	7
HR	0
BF	18
Pitches	89

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	20
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	0.96
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	5
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	4.0
Pitching_Pitches	82
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	6
Pitching_Strikes	52
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_TOR@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	702056
playerID	702056
playerName	Trey Yesavage
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	TOR
teamID	29

Louis Varland (686973) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 19

All-history rows before 20260509: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.900	1.000	0.300	0.200
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.526	0.000	-0.526	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	0.000	2.000	3.000	6.000	0.0000	1.0714	0.0000	0.4286	0.6429	1.2857
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	1.000	7.000	4.000	14.000	0.9643	1.1786	0.1071	0.7500	0.4286	1.5000
season	0.20	19	19.200	1.000	14.000	7.000	29.000	0.4576	1.0678	0.0508	0.7119	0.3559	1.4746

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5100
predicted_ER	0.0480
predicted_ERA	0.4290
predicted_H	0.5980
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.3980
predicted_WHIP	1.1082

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5100	0.3315	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.0480	0.0312	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.4290	0.4290	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.5980	0.3887	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.0000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.3980	1.2587	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1082	1.1082	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	10

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.46
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_LAA@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	686973
playerID	686973
playerName	Louis Varland
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TOR
teamID	29

Braydon Fisher (680755) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 18

All-history rows before 20260509: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.872	1.100	0.128	-0.100
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.111	2.000	0.889	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	3.000	4.000	4.000	7.000	0.000	4.7647	1.4118	0.5294	0.7059	0.7059	1.2353	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	5.000	8.000	7.000	8.000	0.000	4.5000	1.5000	0.5000	0.8000	0.7000	0.8000	0.0000
season	0.20	18	19.200	6.000	14.000	8.000	20.000	1.000	2.7458	1.1186	0.3051	0.7119	0.4068	1.0170	0.0508

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6440
predicted_ER	0.4740
predicted_ERA	4.2683
predicted_H	0.7400
predicted_HR	0.0100
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0390
predicted_WHIP	1.3840

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.6440	0.4186	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.4740	0.6581	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.2683	4.2683	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.7400	0.8310	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0100	0.3565	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.0390	1.3754	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3840	1.3840	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	2
HR	1
BF	4
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.75
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	23
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	14
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_TOR@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	680755
playerID	680755
playerName	Braydon Fisher
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TOR
teamID	29

Jeff Hoffman (656546) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 18

All-history rows before 20260509: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.556	0.000	-0.556	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.861	1.000	0.139	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.667	1.000	-1.667	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	1.000	6.000	0.000	5.000	0.000	1.8000	1.2000	0.2000	1.2000	0.0000	1.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	8.000	14.000	5.000	13.000	1.000	8.0000	2.1111	0.8889	1.5556	0.5556	1.4444	0.1111
season	0.20	18	16.200	10.000	22.000	7.000	30.000	2.000	5.4000	1.7400	0.6000	1.3200	0.4200	1.8000	0.1200

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2780
predicted_ER	0.5210
predicted_ERA	4.6900
predicted_H	1.3480
predicted_HR	0.0630
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.3160
predicted_WHIP	1.6269

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2780	0.1807	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5210	0.3387	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.6900	4.6900	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.3480	0.8762	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0630	0.0410	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.3160	0.8554	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.6269	1.6269	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.40
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_LAA@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	656546
playerID	656546
playerName	Jeff Hoffman
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TOR
teamID	29

Tyler Rogers (643511) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 17

All-history rows before 20260509: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.176	2.000	-0.176	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.912	0.100	0.088	0.900
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.588	0.000	1.412	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	2.000	4.000	0.000	5.000	4.1538	0.9231	0.4615	0.9231	0.0000	1.1539
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	3.000	7.000	1.000	5.000	3.0000	0.8889	0.3333	0.7778	0.1111	0.5556
season	0.20	17	16.200	3.000	12.000	4.000	10.000	1.6200	0.9600	0.1800	0.7200	0.2400	0.6000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.0870
predicted_ER	0.3600
predicted_ERA	3.2432
predicted_H	0.8320
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8340
predicted_WHIP	0.9185

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0870	0.0565	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3600	0.2340	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.2432	3.2432	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.8320	1.2408	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.8340	1.2421	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9185	0.9185	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	1.62
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	22
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L, BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_TOR@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	643511
playerID	643511
playerName	Tyler Rogers
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TOR
teamID	29

20260509_MIN@CLE

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "confidence": 0.619760888185003, "home_win_probability": 0.619760888185003, "away_win_probability": 0.38023911181499703, "predicted_score_text": "MIN 4 - 5 CLE", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to final winner probability with starter-quality caps.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "predicted_score_text": "MIN 3 - 5 CLE", "confidence": 0.619760888185003, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score", "final_prediction_synced": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "MIN 3 - 5 CLE", "winner": "CLE"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "MIN 4 - 5 CLE", "winner": "CLE"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 1, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 1, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"}}

Away Team: MIN

Kody Clemens (665019) · BATTER · 1B · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 23

All-history rows before 20260509: 23

System season_avg: 0.2050

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2051

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.174	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.174	0.000	-0.174	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.391	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.391	1.000	-0.391	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.198	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.205	0.000	-0.205	0.000
predicted_BB	0.478	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.478	0.000	0.522	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.087	0.000	-0.087	0.000
predicted_H	0.630	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.696	0.000	-0.696	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.130	0.000	-0.130	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.390	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.500	-0.083	-0.250
predicted_R	0.478	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.478	0.000	-0.478	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.391	0.000	-0.391	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.174	0.000	-0.174	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.327	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.372	0.000	-0.372	0.000
predicted_SO	1.043	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.043	0.000	-1.043	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.174	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.391	-
predicted_AVG	0.198	-
predicted_BB	0.478	-
predicted_H	0.630	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.390	-
predicted_R	0.478	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.327	-
predicted_SO	1.043	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.191	0.017
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.012	-0.379
predicted_AVG	0.198	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.531	0.053
predicted_H	0.581	-0.049
predicted_HBP	0.338	-
predicted_HR	0.056	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.390	0.000
predicted_R	0.710	0.232
predicted_RBI	0.386	-0.034
predicted_SLG	0.327	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.853	-0.190

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.39), rates preserved: AVG=0.171 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 23

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	12.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	3.000	0.1667	0.4118	0.2500	0.1667	0.0000	0.0833	0.2500	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	30.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	6.000	7.000	5.000	8.000	0.2333	0.3947	0.4000	0.2333	0.0333	0.2000	0.1667	0.2667
season	0.20	23	-	78.000	16.000	4.000	3.000	9.000	11.000	11.000	24.000	0.2051	0.3333	0.3718	0.2051	0.0385	0.1154	0.1410	0.3077

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.8080
predicted_AVG	0.1977
predicted_BB	0.5590
predicted_H	0.5550
predicted_HBP	0.3380
predicted_HR	0.0540
predicted_OBP	0.3901
predicted_R	0.8350
predicted_RBI	0.3670
predicted_SLG	0.3269
predicted_SO	0.7510

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1740	0.2000	0.1909	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3910	2.8080	3.0120	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1980	0.1977	0.1978	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4780	0.5590	0.5307	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6300	0.5550	0.5813	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.3380	0.3380	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0540	0.0561	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3900	0.3901	0.3901	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4780	0.8350	0.7100	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.3670	0.3856	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3270	0.3269	0.3269	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0430	0.7510	0.8532	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	23
Season rows before report date	23
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	23
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.205

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	1
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	1
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260507_MIN@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	665019
playerID	665019
playerName	Kody Clemens
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	MIN
teamID	17

Victor Caratini (605170) · BATTER · C · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 26

All-history rows before 20260509: 26

System season_avg: 0.2020

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2022

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.038	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.038	0.000	-0.038	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.423	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.423	4.000	-0.423	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.133	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.202	0.250	-0.202	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.346	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.346	0.000	0.654	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.420	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.692	1.000	-0.692	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.038	0.000	-0.038	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.216	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.299	0.250	-0.049	0.000
predicted_R	0.231	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.231	0.000	-0.231	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.462	0.000	-0.462	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.142	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.247	0.250	-0.247	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.808	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.808	3.000	1.192	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.038	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.423	-
predicted_AVG	0.133	-
predicted_BB	0.346	-
predicted_H	0.420	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.216	-
predicted_R	0.231	-
predicted_RBI	0.300	-
predicted_SLG	0.142	-
predicted_SO	0.808	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.018	-0.019
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.434	0.011
predicted_AVG	0.133	0.000
predicted_BB	0.270	-0.076
predicted_H	0.445	0.025
predicted_HBP	0.164	-
predicted_HR	0.009	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.216	-0.000
predicted_R	0.193	-0.038
predicted_RBI	0.314	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.142	0.000
predicted_SO	1.153	0.345

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.43), rates preserved: AVG=0.130 HR/AB=0.003

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 26

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	8.000	0.1176	0.2105	0.1176	0.1177	0.0000	0.0588	0.0588	0.4706
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	13.000	0.1143	0.1750	0.1143	0.1143	0.0000	0.1143	0.0571	0.3714
season	0.20	26	-	89.000	18.000	1.000	1.000	12.000	6.000	9.000	21.000	0.2022	0.2991	0.2472	0.2023	0.0112	0.1348	0.1011	0.2360

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0080
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.4400
predicted_AVG	0.1334
predicted_BB	0.2290
predicted_H	0.4590
predicted_HBP	0.1640
predicted_HR	0.0080
predicted_OBP	0.2158
predicted_R	0.1720
predicted_RBI	0.3210
predicted_SLG	0.1424
predicted_SO	1.3380

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0380	0.0080	0.0185	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4230	3.4400	3.4341	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1330	0.1334	0.1333	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3460	0.2290	0.2700	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4200	0.4590	0.4454	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1640	0.1640	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0080	0.0087	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2160	0.2158	0.2159	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2310	0.1720	0.1926	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3000	0.3210	0.3136	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1420	0.1424	0.1423	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8080	1.3380	1.1525	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	26
Season rows before report date	26
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	26
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.202

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260508_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	605170
playerID	605170
playerName	Victor Caratini
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	MIN
teamID	17

Luke Keaschall (807712) · BATTER · 2B · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 37

All-history rows before 20260509: 37

System season_avg: 0.2390

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2391

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.216	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.216	0.000	0.784	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.730	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.730	3.000	-0.730	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.346	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.239	0.333	0.094	0.000
predicted_BB	0.432	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.432	1.000	0.568	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.260	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.892	1.000	0.108	0.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.491	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.318	0.500	0.182	0.000
predicted_R	0.486	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.486	0.000	0.514	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.405	0.000	-0.405	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.216	0.000	-0.216	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.505	0.667	0.667	Hitting_SLG	0.319	0.333	0.348	0.333
predicted_SO	0.595	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.595	0.000	-0.595	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.216	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.730	-
predicted_AVG	0.346	-
predicted_BB	0.432	-
predicted_H	1.260	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.491	-
predicted_R	0.486	-
predicted_RBI	0.280	-
predicted_SLG	0.505	-
predicted_SO	0.595	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.383	0.167
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.292	-0.438
predicted_AVG	0.346	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.789	0.357
predicted_H	1.127	-0.133
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.003	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.491	0.000
predicted_R	0.680	0.194
predicted_RBI	0.251	-0.029
predicted_SLG	0.505	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.388	-0.207

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.73), rates preserved: AVG=0.302 HR/AB=0.001

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	6.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	6.000	0.000	0.4286	0.6000	0.6429	0.4286	0.0000	0.0714	0.4286	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	-	30.000	9.000	4.000	0.000	2.000	6.000	9.000	5.000	0.3000	0.4500	0.4333	0.3000	0.0000	0.0667	0.3000	0.1667
season	0.20	37	-	138.000	33.000	8.000	1.000	15.000	18.000	16.000	22.000	0.2391	0.3185	0.3188	0.2391	0.0073	0.1087	0.1159	0.1594

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.4730
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.0560
predicted_AVG	0.3457
predicted_BB	0.9810
predicted_H	1.0560
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.0040
predicted_OBP	0.4912
predicted_R	0.7850
predicted_RBI	0.2360
predicted_SLG	0.5047
predicted_SO	0.2760

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2160	0.4730	0.3831	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7300	3.0560	3.2919	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3460	0.3457	0.3458	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4320	0.9810	0.7889	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2600	1.0560	1.1274	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0040	0.0026	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4910	0.4912	0.4911	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4860	0.7850	0.6804	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2800	0.2360	0.2514	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5050	0.5047	0.5048	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5950	0.2760	0.3877	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.239

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260508_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	807712
playerID	807712
playerName	Luke Keaschall
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	MIN
teamID	17

Matt Wallner (670242) · BATTER · RF · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 31

All-history rows before 20260509: 31

System season_avg: 0.1800

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1802

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.097	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.097	0.000	-0.097	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.581	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.581	4.000	-0.581	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.195	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.180	0.000	0.153	0.333
predicted_BB	0.323	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.323	0.000	0.677	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.032	0.000	-0.032	0.000
predicted_H	0.610	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.645	0.000	0.355	1.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.129	0.000	-0.129	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.273	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.278	0.000	0.222	0.500
predicted_R	0.419	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.419	0.000	-0.419	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.323	0.000	-0.323	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.370	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.315	0.000	0.018	0.333
predicted_SO	1.419	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.419	2.000	-1.419	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.097	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.581	-
predicted_AVG	0.195	-
predicted_BB	0.323	-
predicted_H	0.610	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.273	-
predicted_R	0.419	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.370	-
predicted_SO	1.419	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.128	0.030
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.464	-0.117
predicted_AVG	0.195	0.000
predicted_BB	0.223	-0.100
predicted_H	0.644	0.034
predicted_HBP	0.193	-
predicted_HR	0.147	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.273	-0.000
predicted_R	0.281	-0.138
predicted_RBI	0.426	0.026
predicted_SLG	0.370	0.000
predicted_SO	1.117	-0.302

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.58), rates preserved: AVG=0.180 HR/AB=0.041

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, BvP AVG=0.400)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	0.2353	0.2778	0.4706	0.2353	0.0588	0.1765	0.0000	0.2353
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	9.000	0.1515	0.2632	0.2727	0.1515	0.0303	0.0909	0.0909	0.2727
season	0.20	31	-	111.000	20.000	3.000	4.000	10.000	13.000	10.000	44.000	0.1802	0.2778	0.3153	0.1802	0.0360	0.0901	0.0901	0.3964

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1440
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.4010
predicted_AVG	0.1950
predicted_BB	0.1690
predicted_H	0.6630
predicted_HBP	0.1930
predicted_HR	0.1510
predicted_OBP	0.2727
predicted_R	0.2060
predicted_RBI	0.4400
predicted_SLG	0.3703
predicted_SO	0.9540

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0970	0.1440	0.1275	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5810	3.4010	3.4640	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1950	0.1950	0.1950	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3230	0.1690	0.2229	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6100	0.6630	0.6445	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1930	0.1930	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1510	0.1472	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2730	0.2727	0.2728	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4190	0.2060	0.2805	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.4400	0.4260	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3700	0.3703	0.3702	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4190	0.9540	1.1167	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260508_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	670242
playerID	670242
playerName	Matt Wallner
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	MIN
teamID	17

Josh Bell (605137) · BATTER · DH · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 35

All-history rows before 20260509: 35

System season_avg: 0.2120

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2121

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.830	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.771	5.000	0.229	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.153	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.212	0.200	0.038	0.050
predicted_BB	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.590	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.800	1.000	0.200	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.086	0.000	-0.086	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.175	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.291	0.200	-0.041	0.050
predicted_R	0.600	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.600	0.000	0.400	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.250	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.514	0.000	0.486	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.174	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.318	0.200	-0.068	0.050
predicted_SO	0.829	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.829	3.000	0.171	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.830	-
predicted_AVG	0.153	-
predicted_BB	0.400	-
predicted_H	0.590	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.175	-
predicted_R	0.600	-
predicted_RBI	0.250	-
predicted_SLG	0.174	-
predicted_SO	0.829	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.071	-0.072
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.096	0.266
predicted_AVG	0.153	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.221	-0.179
predicted_H	0.627	0.037
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.019	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.175	0.000
predicted_R	0.365	-0.235
predicted_RBI	0.264	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.174	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.974	0.145

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.10), rates preserved: AVG=0.153 HR/AB=0.005

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.830

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	22.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	6.000	0.1364	0.1364	0.1364	0.1364	0.0000	0.0454	0.0000	0.2727
last_10	0.35	10	-	43.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	10.000	0.1395	0.1591	0.1395	0.1395	0.0000	0.0465	0.0233	0.2326
season	0.20	35	-	132.000	28.000	5.000	3.000	18.000	21.000	14.000	29.000	0.2121	0.2905	0.3182	0.2121	0.0227	0.1364	0.1061	0.2197

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0320
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.2390
predicted_AVG	0.1526
predicted_BB	0.1240
predicted_H	0.6470
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0190
predicted_OBP	0.1752
predicted_R	0.2380
predicted_RBI	0.2710
predicted_SLG	0.1738
predicted_SO	1.0520

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.0320	0.0708	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8300	4.2390	4.0959	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1530	0.1526	0.1527	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4000	0.1240	0.2206	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5900	0.6470	0.6270	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0190	0.0193	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1750	0.1752	0.1751	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6000	0.2380	0.3647	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2500	0.2710	0.2637	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1740	0.1738	0.1739	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8290	1.0520	0.9740	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.212

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260508_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	605137
playerID	605137
playerName	Josh Bell
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	MIN
teamID	17

Brooks Lee (686797) · BATTER · SS · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 34

All-history rows before 20260509: 34

System season_avg: 0.2720

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2720

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.147	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.147	0.000	-0.147	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.830	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.676	4.000	1.324	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.351	0.200	0.200	Hitting_AVG	0.272	0.500	-0.072	-0.300
predicted_BB	0.265	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.265	0.000	-0.265	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_H	1.350	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	2.000	0.000	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.147	0.000	-0.147	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.386	0.200	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.326	0.500	-0.126	-0.300
predicted_R	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.840	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.618	0.000	-0.618	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.477	0.200	0.200	Hitting_SLG	0.432	0.500	-0.232	-0.300
predicted_SO	0.735	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.735	0.000	-0.735	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.147	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.830	-
predicted_AVG	0.351	-
predicted_BB	0.265	-
predicted_H	1.350	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.386	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.840	-
predicted_SLG	0.477	-
predicted_SO	0.735	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.311	0.164
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.876	0.046
predicted_AVG	0.351	0.000
predicted_BB	0.232	-0.033
predicted_H	1.362	0.012
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.031	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.386	0.000
predicted_R	0.551	0.051
predicted_RBI	0.847	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.477	0.000
predicted_SO	0.632	-0.103

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.88), rates preserved: AVG=0.352 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, BvP AVG=0.125)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.830

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	8.000	3.000	0.000	5.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	0.4000	0.4286	0.5500	0.4000	0.0000	0.2500	0.0500	0.1000
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	13.000	3.000	0.000	8.000	6.000	2.000	7.000	0.3333	0.3659	0.4103	0.3333	0.0000	0.2051	0.0513	0.1795
season	0.20	34	-	125.000	34.000	5.000	5.000	21.000	17.000	9.000	25.000	0.2720	0.3259	0.4320	0.2720	0.0400	0.1680	0.0720	0.2000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3990
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.9000
predicted_AVG	0.3511
predicted_BB	0.2140
predicted_H	1.3690
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0310
predicted_OBP	0.3861
predicted_R	0.5790
predicted_RBI	0.8500
predicted_SLG	0.4775
predicted_SO	0.5770

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1470	0.3990	0.3108	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8300	3.9000	3.8755	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3510	0.3511	0.3511	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2650	0.2140	0.2319	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.3500	1.3690	1.3623	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0310	0.0307	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3860	0.3861	0.3861	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.5790	0.5514	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.8400	0.8500	0.8465	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4770	0.4775	0.4773	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7350	0.5770	0.6323	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.272

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260508_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	686797
playerID	686797
playerName	Brooks Lee
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	MIN
teamID	17

Trevor Larnach (663616) · BATTER · LF · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 25

All-history rows before 20260509: 25

System season_avg: 0.2790

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2791

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.240	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.240	0.000	0.760	1.000
predicted_3B	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.040	0.000	-0.040	0.000
predicted_AB	3.580	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.440	5.000	0.560	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.280	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.279	0.200	-0.029	0.050
predicted_BB	0.640	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.640	0.000	-0.640	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.960	1.000	0.040	0.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.040	0.000	-0.040	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.326	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.392	0.200	-0.142	0.050
predicted_R	0.560	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.560	0.000	0.440	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.440	0.000	0.560	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.040	0.000	-0.040	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.392	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.407	0.200	0.093	0.300
predicted_SO	0.680	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.680	0.000	0.320	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.240	-
predicted_3B	0.040	-
predicted_AB	3.580	-
predicted_AVG	0.280	-
predicted_BB	0.640	-
predicted_H	1.000	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.326	-
predicted_R	0.560	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.392	-
predicted_SO	0.680	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.298	0.058
predicted_3B	0.044	0.004
predicted_AB	3.852	0.272
predicted_AVG	0.280	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.416	-0.224
predicted_H	1.077	0.077
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.009	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.326	0.000
predicted_R	0.429	-0.131
predicted_RBI	0.476	0.036
predicted_SLG	0.392	0.000
predicted_SO	0.644	-0.036

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.85), rates preserved: AVG=0.280 HR/AB=0.002

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=15.0, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 25

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	22.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	0.2727	0.2727	0.3636	0.2727	0.0000	0.1364	0.0000	0.1364
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	11.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	4.000	4.000	6.000	0.2895	0.3571	0.4211	0.2895	0.0000	0.1053	0.1053	0.1579
season	0.20	25	-	86.000	24.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	11.000	14.000	16.000	17.000	0.2791	0.3922	0.4070	0.2791	0.0116	0.1279	0.1860	0.1977

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3300
predicted_3B	0.0460
predicted_AB	3.9980
predicted_AVG	0.2799
predicted_BB	0.2960
predicted_H	1.1190
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0090
predicted_OBP	0.3261
predicted_R	0.3590
predicted_RBI	0.4950
predicted_SLG	0.3924
predicted_SO	0.6240

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2400	0.3300	0.2985	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0400	0.0460	0.0439	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5800	3.9980	3.8517	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2800	0.2799	0.2799	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6400	0.2960	0.4164	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0000	1.1190	1.0774	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0090	0.0094	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3260	0.3261	0.3261	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5600	0.3590	0.4294	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.4950	0.4758	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3920	0.3924	0.3923	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6800	0.6240	0.6436	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	25
Season rows before report date	25
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	25
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.279

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260507_MIN@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	663616
playerID	663616
playerName	Trevor Larnach
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	MIN
teamID	17

Royce Lewis (668904) · BATTER · 3B · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 24

All-history rows before 20260509: 24

System season_avg: 0.1730

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1728

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.083	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.375	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.375	4.000	-0.375	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.107	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.173	0.250	-0.173	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.375	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.375	0.000	0.625	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.583	1.000	-0.583	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.160	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.269	0.250	-0.019	0.000
predicted_R	0.375	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.375	1.000	-0.375	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.458	0.000	-0.458	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.162	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.309	0.250	-0.309	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.125	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.125	0.000	-0.125	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.083	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.375	-
predicted_AVG	0.107	-
predicted_BB	0.375	-
predicted_H	0.300	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.160	-
predicted_R	0.375	-
predicted_RBI	0.230	-
predicted_SLG	0.162	-
predicted_SO	1.125	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.041	-0.042
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.515	0.140
predicted_AVG	0.107	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.205	-0.170
predicted_H	0.355	0.055
predicted_HBP	0.141	-
predicted_HR	0.057	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.160	0.000
predicted_R	0.366	-0.009
predicted_RBI	0.268	0.038
predicted_SLG	0.162	0.000
predicted_SO	1.178	0.053

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.51), rates preserved: AVG=0.101 HR/AB=0.016

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=12.0, BvP AVG=0.250)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 24

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	0.000	7.000	0.0556	0.1000	0.0556	0.0556	0.0000	0.0556	0.0000	0.3889
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	1.000	10.000	0.1351	0.1750	0.2162	0.1351	0.0270	0.0811	0.0270	0.2703
season	0.20	24	-	81.000	14.000	2.000	3.000	11.000	9.000	9.000	27.000	0.1728	0.2688	0.3086	0.1728	0.0370	0.1358	0.1111	0.3333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0180
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.5900
predicted_AVG	0.1069
predicted_BB	0.1140
predicted_H	0.3840
predicted_HBP	0.1410
predicted_HR	0.0610
predicted_OBP	0.1600
predicted_R	0.3610
predicted_RBI	0.2890
predicted_SLG	0.1624
predicted_SO	1.2070

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0830	0.0180	0.0408	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3750	3.5900	3.5147	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1070	0.1069	0.1069	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3750	0.1140	0.2053	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3000	0.3840	0.3546	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1410	0.1410	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0610	0.0571	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1600	0.1600	0.1600	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3750	0.3610	0.3659	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2300	0.2890	0.2683	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1620	0.1624	0.1623	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1250	1.2070	1.1783	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	24
Season rows before report date	24
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	24
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.173

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260508_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	668904
playerID	668904
playerName	Royce Lewis
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	MIN
teamID	17

Byron Buxton (621439) · BATTER · CF · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 36

All-history rows before 20260509: 36

System season_avg: 0.2550

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2549

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	1.000	-0.167	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.028	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_AB	4.660	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	4.250	5.000	0.750	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.265	0.200	0.200	Hitting_AVG	0.255	0.600	-0.055	-0.400
predicted_BB	0.278	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.278	0.000	-0.278	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.230	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.083	3.000	-0.083	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.490	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.333	1.000	0.667	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.301	0.200	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.307	0.600	-0.107	-0.400
predicted_R	0.778	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.778	2.000	0.222	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.960	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	0.528	2.000	1.472	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.624	0.800	0.800	Hitting_SLG	0.542	1.400	0.258	-0.600
predicted_SO	1.167	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.167	1.000	0.833	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.028	-
predicted_AB	4.660	-
predicted_AVG	0.265	-
predicted_BB	0.278	-
predicted_H	1.230	-
predicted_HR	0.490	-
predicted_OBP	0.301	-
predicted_R	0.778	-
predicted_RBI	0.960	-
predicted_SLG	0.624	-
predicted_SO	1.167	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.184	0.017
predicted_3B	0.014	-0.014
predicted_AB	4.471	-0.189
predicted_AVG	0.265	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.238	-0.040
predicted_H	1.182	-0.048
predicted_HBP	0.011	-
predicted_HR	0.468	-0.022
predicted_OBP	0.301	-0.000
predicted_R	0.731	-0.047
predicted_RBI	0.923	-0.037
predicted_SLG	0.624	0.000
predicted_SO	1.094	-0.073

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 5 (raw=4.66), rates preserved: AVG=0.254 HR/AB=0.100

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	5.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, BvP AVG=0.100)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 4.660

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	22.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	0.2273	0.2609	0.5455	0.2273	0.0909	0.2273	0.0454	0.2727
last_10	0.35	10	-	44.000	14.000	2.000	0.000	6.000	10.000	8.000	2.000	8.000	0.3182	0.3478	0.7727	0.3182	0.1364	0.2273	0.0454	0.1818
season	0.20	36	-	153.000	39.000	6.000	1.000	12.000	19.000	28.000	10.000	42.000	0.2549	0.3072	0.5425	0.2549	0.0784	0.1242	0.0654	0.2745

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1930
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	4.3700
predicted_AVG	0.2646
predicted_BB	0.2160
predicted_H	1.1560
predicted_HBP	0.0110
predicted_HR	0.4560
predicted_OBP	0.3006
predicted_R	0.7060
predicted_RBI	0.9030
predicted_SLG	0.6244
predicted_SO	1.0540

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.1930	0.1839	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0280	0.0060	0.0137	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.6600	4.3700	4.4715	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2650	0.2646	0.2647	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2780	0.2160	0.2377	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2300	1.1560	1.1819	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0110	0.0110	form_only
predicted_HR	0.4900	0.4560	0.4679	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3010	0.3006	0.3007	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7780	0.7060	0.7312	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.9600	0.9030	0.9230	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6240	0.6244	0.6243	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1670	1.0540	1.0936	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.255

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.6
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	7
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260508_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	621439
playerID	621439
playerName	Byron Buxton
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	MIN
teamID	17

Joe Ryan (657746) · PITCHER · Starter · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 8

All-history rows before 20260509: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000
predicted_IP	4.200	4.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.775	0.100	-0.575	4.100
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	-	Pitching_SO	5.000	1.000	0.000	4.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 4.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	24.100	9.000	18.000	5.000	23.000	3.000	3.3288	0.9452	0.3699	0.7397	0.2055	0.9452	0.1233
last_10	0.35	8	38.200	16.000	31.000	10.000	40.000	3.000	3.7241	1.0603	0.4138	0.8017	0.2586	1.0345	0.0776
season	0.20	8	38.200	16.000	31.000	10.000	40.000	3.000	3.7241	1.0603	0.4138	0.8017	0.2586	1.0345	0.0776

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.1310
predicted_ER	1.8980
predicted_ERA	3.5462
predicted_H	3.7270
predicted_HR	0.4730
predicted_IP	4.2000
predicted_SO	4.7890
predicted_WHIP	1.0085

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	1.1310	1.0852	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	1.8980	1.9337	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.5462	3.5462	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	3.7270	3.4726	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.4730	0.3075	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.2000	4.2000	4.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	4.7890	4.8628	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0085	1.0085	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.2
H	3
R	2
ER	2
BB	1
SO	5
HR	0
BF	22
Pitches	89

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	2
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.72
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	9
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	5
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_TOR@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	657746
playerID	657746
playerName	Joe Ryan
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	MIN
teamID	17

Justin Topa (623437) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 21

All-history rows before 20260509: 21

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.667	6.000	0.333	-5.000
predicted_IP	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.643	0.200	1.357	1.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.619	1.000	0.381	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 2.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	9.000	10.000	3.000	3.000	3.000	18.6923	3.0000	2.0769	2.3077	0.6923	0.6923	0.6923
last_10	0.35	10	8.100	10.000	13.000	4.000	8.000	3.000	10.8000	2.0400	1.2000	1.5600	0.4800	0.9600	0.3600
season	0.20	21	17.000	14.000	23.000	8.000	13.000	4.000	7.4118	1.8235	0.8235	1.3529	0.4706	0.7647	0.2353

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4680
predicted_ER	1.2410
predicted_ERA	13.6739
predicted_H	1.5150
predicted_HR	0.3960
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.6540
predicted_WHIP	2.4287

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4680	0.3042	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	1.2410	1.1566	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	13.6739	13.6739	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	1.5150	2.0347	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.3960	0.2574	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	2.0000	0.2000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.6540	0.7751	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	2.4287	2.4287	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.0
H	3
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	26

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	8
Pitching_ER	6
Pitching_ERA	7.88
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	32
Pitching_R	6
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	18
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_MIN@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	623437
playerID	623437
playerName	Justin Topa
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIN
teamID	17

Eric Orze (679358) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 16

All-history rows before 20260509: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.562	0.000	1.438	2.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.938	0.200	0.163	0.900
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	5.000	7.000	4.000	5.000	7.9412	1.9412	0.8823	1.2353	0.7059	0.8823
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	6.000	11.000	4.000	12.000	5.0625	1.4062	0.5625	1.0312	0.3750	1.1250
season	0.20	16	17.100	9.000	17.000	8.000	16.000	4.6731	1.4423	0.5192	0.9808	0.4615	0.9231

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5410
predicted_ER	0.6980
predicted_ERA	6.2800
predicted_H	1.1130
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9750
predicted_WHIP	1.6542

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.5410	0.7016	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.6980	1.1537	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	6.2800	6.2800	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.1130	1.0735	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0000	0.3500	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.0000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9750	0.9838	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.6542	1.6542	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	2
ER	2
BB	1
SO	1
HR	1
BF	5
Pitches	23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.67
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	679358
playerID	679358
playerName	Eric Orze
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIN
teamID	17

Home Team: CLE

Austin Hedges (595978) · BATTER · C · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 16

All-history rows before 20260509: 16

System season_avg: 0.3060

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3061

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.267	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	0.750	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.267	2.000	2.000	Hitting_AB	3.062	4.000	-1.062	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.320	1.000	1.000	Hitting_AVG	0.306	0.250	0.694	0.750
predicted_BB	0.267	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.250	0.000	0.750	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_H	0.860	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.938	1.000	1.062	1.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.380	1.000	1.000	Hitting_OBP	0.352	0.250	0.648	0.750
predicted_R	0.733	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.688	0.000	0.312	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.290	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	0.250	1.000	1.750	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.546	1.500	1.500	Hitting_SLG	0.449	0.250	1.051	1.250
predicted_SO	0.733	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.688	1.000	-0.688	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.267	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.267	-
predicted_AVG	0.320	-
predicted_BB	0.267	-
predicted_H	0.860	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.380	-
predicted_R	0.733	-
predicted_RBI	0.290	-
predicted_SLG	0.546	-
predicted_SO	0.733	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.290	0.023
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.209	-0.058
predicted_AVG	0.320	0.000
predicted_BB	0.313	0.046
predicted_H	0.963	0.103
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.132	0.012
predicted_OBP	0.380	0.000
predicted_R	0.745	0.012
predicted_RBI	0.321	0.031
predicted_SLG	0.546	0.000
predicted_SO	0.710	-0.023

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.27), rates preserved: AVG=0.295 HR/AB=0.040

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	0.3750	0.4444	0.6875	0.3750	0.0625	0.1250	0.1250	0.1875
last_10	0.35	10	-	31.000	8.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	7.000	3.000	8.000	0.2581	0.3143	0.4194	0.2581	0.0323	0.0968	0.0968	0.2581
season	0.20	15	-	49.000	15.000	4.000	1.000	4.000	11.000	4.000	11.000	0.3061	0.3519	0.4490	0.3061	0.0204	0.0816	0.0816	0.2245

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3020
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.1780
predicted_AVG	0.3203
predicted_BB	0.3380
predicted_H	1.0180
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1380
predicted_OBP	0.3804
predicted_R	0.7510
predicted_RBI	0.3380
predicted_SLG	0.5460
predicted_SO	0.6980

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2670	0.3020	0.2898	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2670	3.1780	3.2092	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3200	0.3203	0.3202	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2670	0.3380	0.3132	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8600	1.0180	0.9627	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1380	0.1317	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3800	0.3804	0.3803	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7330	0.7510	0.7447	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2900	0.3380	0.3212	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5460	0.5460	0.5460	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7330	0.6980	0.7103	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	2
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.306

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260508_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	595978
playerID	595978
playerName	Austin Hedges
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	CLE
teamID	8

Brayan Rocchio (677587) · BATTER · SS · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 38

All-history rows before 20260509: 38

System season_avg: 0.2640

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2640

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.105	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.105	0.000	0.895	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.289	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.289	3.000	-0.289	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.212	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.264	0.333	0.069	0.000
predicted_BB	0.342	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.342	0.000	-0.342	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.079	0.000	-0.079	0.000
predicted_H	0.590	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.868	1.000	0.132	0.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.079	0.000	-0.079	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.312	0.333	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.348	0.500	-0.014	-0.167
predicted_R	0.395	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.395	0.000	0.605	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.140	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.132	1.000	-0.132	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.243	0.667	0.667	Hitting_SLG	0.368	0.333	0.299	0.333
predicted_SO	0.368	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.368	0.000	-0.368	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.105	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.289	-
predicted_AVG	0.212	-
predicted_BB	0.342	-
predicted_H	0.590	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.312	-
predicted_R	0.395	-
predicted_RBI	0.140	-
predicted_SLG	0.243	-
predicted_SO	0.368	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.073	-0.032
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.370	0.081
predicted_AVG	0.212	0.000
predicted_BB	0.350	0.008
predicted_H	0.677	0.087
predicted_HBP	0.141	-
predicted_HR	0.014	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.312	0.000
predicted_R	0.339	-0.056
predicted_RBI	0.161	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.243	0.000
predicted_SO	0.421	0.053

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.37), rates preserved: AVG=0.201 HR/AB=0.004

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, BvP AVG=0.500)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	0.1765	0.3000	0.1765	0.1765	0.0000	0.0000	0.1177	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	8.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	3.000	0.2286	0.3077	0.2571	0.2286	0.0000	0.0571	0.0857	0.0857
season	0.20	38	-	125.000	33.000	4.000	3.000	19.000	15.000	13.000	14.000	0.2640	0.3475	0.3680	0.2640	0.0240	0.1520	0.1040	0.1120

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0560
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.4130
predicted_AVG	0.2122
predicted_BB	0.3540
predicted_H	0.7240
predicted_HBP	0.1410
predicted_HR	0.0160
predicted_OBP	0.3122
predicted_R	0.3090
predicted_RBI	0.1720
predicted_SLG	0.2430
predicted_SO	0.4500

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1050	0.0560	0.0731	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2890	3.4130	3.3696	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2120	0.2122	0.2121	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3420	0.3540	0.3498	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5900	0.7240	0.6771	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1410	0.1410	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0160	0.0139	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3120	0.3122	0.3121	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3950	0.3090	0.3391	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1400	0.1720	0.1608	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2430	0.2430	0.2430	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3680	0.4500	0.4213	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.264

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260508_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	677587
playerID	677587
playerName	Brayan Rocchio
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	CLE
teamID	8

José Ramírez (608070) · BATTER · 3B · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 40

All-history rows before 20260509: 40

System season_avg: 0.2190

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2192

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.800	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.650	4.000	0.350	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.216	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.219	0.500	-0.219	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.700	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.700	0.000	-0.700	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_H	0.820	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.800	2.000	-0.800	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.150	0.000	-0.150	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.352	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.345	0.500	-0.345	-0.500
predicted_R	0.600	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.600	1.000	-0.600	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.375	1.000	-0.375	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.350	0.000	-0.350	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.271	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.397	0.500	-0.397	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.600	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.600	0.000	0.400	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.800	-
predicted_AVG	0.216	-
predicted_BB	0.700	-
predicted_H	0.820	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.352	-
predicted_R	0.600	-
predicted_RBI	0.290	-
predicted_SLG	0.271	-
predicted_SO	0.600	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.139	-0.061
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.641	-0.159
predicted_AVG	0.216	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.731	0.031
predicted_H	0.786	-0.034
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.029	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.352	-0.000
predicted_R	0.640	0.040
predicted_RBI	0.276	-0.014
predicted_SLG	0.271	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.684	0.084

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.80), rates preserved: AVG=0.207 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=32.0, BvP AVG=0.219)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	4.000	0.2353	0.3810	0.2353	0.2353	0.0000	0.0588	0.2353	0.2353
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	7.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	5.000	7.000	7.000	0.1892	0.3182	0.2432	0.1892	0.0000	0.0811	0.1892	0.1892
season	0.20	40	-	146.000	32.000	8.000	6.000	15.000	24.000	28.000	24.000	0.2192	0.3448	0.3973	0.2192	0.0411	0.1027	0.1918	0.1644

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1060
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.5550
predicted_AVG	0.2159
predicted_BB	0.7480
predicted_H	0.7680
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0290
predicted_OBP	0.3518
predicted_R	0.6610
predicted_RBI	0.2680
predicted_SLG	0.2705
predicted_SO	0.7290

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.1060	0.1389	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8000	3.5550	3.6407	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2160	0.2159	0.2159	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7000	0.7480	0.7312	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8200	0.7680	0.7862	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0290	0.0294	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3520	0.3518	0.3519	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6000	0.6610	0.6397	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2900	0.2680	0.2757	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2710	0.2705	0.2707	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6000	0.7290	0.6838	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.219

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260508_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	608070
playerID	608070
playerName	José Ramírez
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	CLE
teamID	8

Kyle Manzardo (700932) · BATTER · 1B · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 27

All-history rows before 20260509: 27

System season_avg: 0.1730

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1735

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.074	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.074	1.000	-0.074	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.670	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.630	5.000	-0.630	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.186	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.173	0.200	-0.173	-0.200
predicted_BB	0.296	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.296	0.000	0.704	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.680	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.630	1.000	-0.630	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.037	0.000	-0.037	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.231	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.248	0.200	0.002	0.050
predicted_R	0.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.222	1.000	-0.222	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.470	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.296	2.000	-0.296	-2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.227	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.224	0.400	-0.224	-0.400
predicted_SO	1.296	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.296	1.000	-0.296	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.074	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.670	-
predicted_AVG	0.186	-
predicted_BB	0.296	-
predicted_H	0.680	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.231	-
predicted_R	0.222	-
predicted_RBI	0.470	-
predicted_SLG	0.227	-
predicted_SO	1.296	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.116	0.042
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.836	0.166
predicted_AVG	0.186	0.000
predicted_BB	0.269	-0.027
predicted_H	0.713	0.032
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.009	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.231	0.000
predicted_R	0.348	0.126
predicted_RBI	0.490	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.227	0.000
predicted_SO	1.249	-0.047

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.84), rates preserved: AVG=0.186 HR/AB=0.002

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, BvP AVG=0.125)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	0.2000	0.2273	0.2500	0.2000	0.0000	0.1500	0.0500	0.3000
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	5.000	3.000	3.000	12.000	0.1750	0.2273	0.2000	0.1750	0.0000	0.1250	0.0750	0.3000
season	0.20	27	-	98.000	17.000	2.000	1.000	8.000	6.000	8.000	35.000	0.1735	0.2477	0.2245	0.1735	0.0102	0.0816	0.0816	0.3571

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1390
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.9260
predicted_AVG	0.1860
predicted_BB	0.2550
predicted_H	0.7300
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.0080
predicted_OBP	0.2314
predicted_R	0.4160
predicted_RBI	0.5010
predicted_SLG	0.2274
predicted_SO	1.2230

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0740	0.1390	0.1163	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6700	3.9260	3.8364	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1860	0.1860	0.1860	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2960	0.2550	0.2693	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6800	0.7300	0.7125	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0080	0.0087	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2310	0.2314	0.2313	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2220	0.4160	0.3481	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4700	0.5010	0.4901	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2270	0.2274	0.2273	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2960	1.2230	1.2486	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.173

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260507_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	700932
playerID	700932
playerName	Kyle Manzardo
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	CLE
teamID	8

Travis Bazzana (683953) · BATTER · 2B · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 9

All-history rows before 20260509: 9

System season_avg: 0.2000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.333	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.333	4.000	0.667	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.242	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.200	0.250	0.050	0.000
predicted_BB	0.778	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.778	0.000	-0.778	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.760	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.667	1.000	0.333	0.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.111	1.000	-0.111	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.383	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.368	0.250	-0.118	0.000
predicted_R	0.778	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.778	2.000	0.222	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.444	2.000	-0.444	-2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.667	2.000	-0.667	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.377	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.300	1.000	-0.050	-0.750
predicted_SO	0.667	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.667	1.000	-0.667	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.333	-
predicted_AVG	0.242	-
predicted_BB	0.778	-
predicted_H	0.760	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.383	-
predicted_R	0.778	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.377	-
predicted_SO	0.667	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.353	0.019
predicted_AVG	0.242	0.000
predicted_BB	0.669	-0.109
predicted_H	0.796	0.036
predicted_HBP	0.151	-
predicted_HR	0.147	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.383	-0.000
predicted_R	0.784	0.006
predicted_RBI	0.416	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.377	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.590	-0.077

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.35), rates preserved: AVG=0.237 HR/AB=0.044

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	5.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	0.2941	0.4000	0.4706	0.2941	0.0588	0.1177	0.1177	0.1177
last_10	0.35	9	-	30.000	6.000	1.000	4.000	7.000	7.000	6.000	0.2000	0.3684	0.3000	0.2000	0.0333	0.1333	0.2333	0.2000
season	0.20	9	-	30.000	6.000	1.000	4.000	7.000	7.000	6.000	0.2000	0.3684	0.3000	0.2000	0.0333	0.1333	0.2333	0.2000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.3630
predicted_AVG	0.2423
predicted_BB	0.6100
predicted_H	0.8150
predicted_HBP	0.1510
predicted_HR	0.1510
predicted_OBP	0.3826
predicted_R	0.7880
predicted_RBI	0.4250
predicted_SLG	0.3768
predicted_SO	0.5480

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3330	3.3630	3.3525	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2420	0.2423	0.2422	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7780	0.6100	0.6688	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7600	0.8150	0.7957	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1510	0.1510	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1510	0.1472	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3830	0.3826	0.3827	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7780	0.7880	0.7845	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.4250	0.4163	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3770	0.3768	0.3769	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6670	0.5480	0.5897	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.2

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	2
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260508_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	683953
playerID	683953
playerName	Travis Bazzana
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	CLE
teamID	8

Steven Kwan (680757) · BATTER · LF · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 36

All-history rows before 20260509: 36

System season_avg: 0.2210

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2214

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	1.000	-0.167	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.300	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.889	3.000	0.111	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.189	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.221	0.667	-0.221	-0.667
predicted_BB	0.528	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.528	2.000	-0.528	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_H	0.810	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.861	2.000	-0.861	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.309	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.321	0.800	-0.321	-0.800
predicted_R	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.500	2.000	-0.500	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.253	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.286	1.000	-0.286	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.500	3.000	3.000	Hitting_SO	0.500	0.000	2.500	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.300	-
predicted_AVG	0.189	-
predicted_BB	0.528	-
predicted_H	0.810	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.309	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.090	-
predicted_SLG	0.253	-
predicted_SO	0.500	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.207	0.040
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.987	-0.313
predicted_AVG	0.189	0.000
predicted_BB	0.589	0.060
predicted_H	0.753	-0.057
predicted_HBP	0.046	-
predicted_HR	0.007	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.309	-0.000
predicted_R	0.598	0.098
predicted_RBI	0.086	-0.004
predicted_SLG	0.253	0.000
predicted_SO	0.389	-0.111

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.30), rates preserved: AVG=0.175 HR/AB=0.002

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=24.0, BvP AVG=0.250)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	3.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 4.300

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	1.000	0.1579	0.2727	0.2105	0.1579	0.0000	0.0000	0.1579	0.0526
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	8.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	8.000	7.000	4.000	0.2105	0.3478	0.2895	0.2105	0.0000	0.0263	0.1842	0.1053
season	0.20	36	-	140.000	31.000	6.000	1.000	9.000	18.000	19.000	18.000	0.2214	0.3210	0.2857	0.2214	0.0071	0.0643	0.1357	0.1286

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2290
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.8180
predicted_AVG	0.1890
predicted_BB	0.6210
predicted_H	0.7220
predicted_HBP	0.0460
predicted_HR	0.0050
predicted_OBP	0.3086
predicted_R	0.6510
predicted_RBI	0.0840
predicted_SLG	0.2532
predicted_SO	0.3290

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.2290	0.2073	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.3000	3.8180	3.9867	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1890	0.1890	0.1890	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5280	0.6210	0.5885	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8100	0.7220	0.7528	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0460	0.0460	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0050	0.0067	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3090	0.3086	0.3087	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.6510	0.5981	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0900	0.0840	0.0861	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2530	0.2532	0.2531	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5000	0.3290	0.3889	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.221

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260508_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	680757
playerID	680757
playerName	Steven Kwan
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	CLE
teamID	8

Angel Martínez (682657) · BATTER · RF · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 28

All-history rows before 20260509: 28

System season_avg: 0.2800

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2804

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.821	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.821	4.000	-0.821	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.255	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.280	0.000	0.053	0.333
predicted_BB	0.179	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.179	0.000	-0.179	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_H	0.900	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.071	0.000	-0.071	1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.179	0.000	-0.179	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.330	0.333	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.330	0.200	0.003	0.133
predicted_R	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.500	1.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.536	0.000	-0.536	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.179	0.000	-0.179	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.347	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.486	0.000	-0.153	0.333
predicted_SO	0.786	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.786	1.000	-0.786	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.821	-
predicted_AVG	0.255	-
predicted_BB	0.179	-
predicted_H	0.900	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.330	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.130	-
predicted_SLG	0.347	-
predicted_SO	0.786	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.247	-0.003
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.833	0.012
predicted_AVG	0.255	0.000
predicted_BB	0.249	0.070
predicted_H	0.952	0.052
predicted_HBP	0.147	-
predicted_HR	0.034	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.330	-0.000
predicted_R	0.403	-0.097
predicted_RBI	0.138	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.347	0.000
predicted_SO	0.875	0.089

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.83), rates preserved: AVG=0.248 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.821

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	0.2632	0.3636	0.3158	0.2632	0.0000	0.0000	0.1053	0.2632
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	9.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	9.000	0.2308	0.2857	0.3077	0.2308	0.0000	0.0256	0.0513	0.2308
season	0.20	28	-	107.000	30.000	7.000	5.000	15.000	14.000	5.000	22.000	0.2804	0.3304	0.4860	0.2804	0.0467	0.1402	0.0467	0.2056

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2450
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.8390
predicted_AVG	0.2553
predicted_BB	0.2870
predicted_H	0.9800
predicted_HBP	0.1470
predicted_HR	0.0360
predicted_OBP	0.3297
predicted_R	0.3510
predicted_RBI	0.1420
predicted_SLG	0.3470
predicted_SO	0.9230

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.2450	0.2467	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8210	3.8390	3.8327	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2550	0.2553	0.2552	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1790	0.2870	0.2492	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9000	0.9800	0.9520	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1470	0.1470	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0360	0.0339	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3300	0.3297	0.3298	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.3510	0.4032	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1300	0.1420	0.1378	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3470	0.3470	0.3470	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7860	0.9230	0.8751	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.28

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260508_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	682657
playerID	682657
playerName	Angel Martínez
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	CLE
teamID	8

Daniel Schneemann (682177) · BATTER · CF · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 27

All-history rows before 20260509: 27

System season_avg: 0.2870

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2872

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.296	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.296	0.000	-0.296	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.481	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.481	4.000	0.519	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.204	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.287	0.250	0.213	0.250
predicted_BB	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.370	1.000	-0.370	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.074	0.000	-0.074	0.000
predicted_H	0.690	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.148	0.000	0.852	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.268	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.356	0.400	0.144	0.100
predicted_R	0.444	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.444	1.000	0.556	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.270	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	0.481	1.000	1.519	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.074	0.000	-0.074	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.308	1.250	1.250	Hitting_SLG	0.500	0.250	0.750	1.000
predicted_SO	1.148	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.148	2.000	-1.148	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.296	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.481	-
predicted_AVG	0.204	-
predicted_BB	0.370	-
predicted_H	0.690	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.268	-
predicted_R	0.444	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.308	-
predicted_SO	1.148	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.225	-0.071
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.624	0.143
predicted_AVG	0.204	0.000
predicted_BB	0.340	-0.030
predicted_H	0.733	0.043
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.065	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.268	0.000
predicted_R	0.319	-0.125
predicted_RBI	0.286	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.308	0.000
predicted_SO	1.255	0.107

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.62), rates preserved: AVG=0.202 HR/AB=0.018

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	0.1579	0.2381	0.2105	0.1579	0.0000	0.0526	0.1053	0.3684
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	13.000	0.2162	0.2564	0.3243	0.2162	0.0270	0.0811	0.0541	0.3513
season	0.20	27	-	94.000	27.000	8.000	4.000	13.000	12.000	10.000	31.000	0.2872	0.3558	0.5000	0.2872	0.0425	0.1383	0.1064	0.3298

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1860
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7010
predicted_AVG	0.2042
predicted_BB	0.3240
predicted_H	0.7560
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0670
predicted_OBP	0.2680
predicted_R	0.2520
predicted_RBI	0.2950
predicted_SLG	0.3082
predicted_SO	1.3130

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2960	0.1860	0.2245	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4810	3.7010	3.6240	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2040	0.2042	0.2041	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3700	0.3240	0.3401	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6900	0.7560	0.7329	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0670	0.0645	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2680	0.2680	0.2680	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4440	0.2520	0.3192	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.2950	0.2863	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3080	0.3082	0.3081	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1480	1.3130	1.2552	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.287

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260507_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	682177
playerID	682177
playerName	Daniel Schneemann
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	CLE
teamID	8

Chase DeLauter (800050) · BATTER · DH · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 32

All-history rows before 20260509: 32

System season_avg: 0.3030

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3033

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.312	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.312	1.000	-0.312	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.031	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.031	0.000	-0.031	0.000
predicted_AB	3.990	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.812	4.000	0.188	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.416	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.303	0.250	-0.303	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.531	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.531	1.000	-0.531	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.660	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.156	1.000	-1.156	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.188	0.000	-0.188	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.489	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.386	0.400	-0.386	-0.400
predicted_R	0.469	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.469	0.000	-0.469	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.690	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.719	0.000	-0.719	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.657	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.549	0.500	-0.549	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.469	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.469	0.000	1.531	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.312	-
predicted_3B	0.031	-
predicted_AB	3.990	-
predicted_AVG	0.416	-
predicted_BB	0.531	-
predicted_H	1.660	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.489	-
predicted_R	0.469	-
predicted_RBI	0.690	-
predicted_SLG	0.657	-
predicted_SO	0.469	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.381	0.069
predicted_3B	0.015	-0.016
predicted_AB	3.869	-0.122
predicted_AVG	0.416	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.544	0.013
predicted_H	1.609	-0.051
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.165	-0.005
predicted_OBP	0.489	0.000
predicted_R	0.410	-0.058
predicted_RBI	0.670	-0.020
predicted_SLG	0.657	0.000
predicted_SO	0.433	-0.036

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.99), rates preserved: AVG=0.403 HR/AB=0.041

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	2.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	2.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.990

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	8.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	0.4211	0.5000	0.6842	0.4210	0.0526	0.1579	0.1579	0.1053
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	18.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	7.000	3.000	5.000	4.000	0.4737	0.5349	0.6842	0.4737	0.0263	0.1842	0.1316	0.1053
season	0.20	32	-	122.000	37.000	10.000	1.000	6.000	23.000	15.000	17.000	15.000	0.3033	0.3857	0.5492	0.3033	0.0492	0.1885	0.1393	0.1230

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.4180
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.8030
predicted_AVG	0.4159
predicted_BB	0.5510
predicted_H	1.5820
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1620
predicted_OBP	0.4894
predicted_R	0.3790
predicted_RBI	0.6590
predicted_SLG	0.6572
predicted_SO	0.4140

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3120	0.4180	0.3809	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0310	0.0060	0.0147	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9900	3.8030	3.8685	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.4160	0.4159	0.4159	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5310	0.5510	0.5440	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.6600	1.5820	1.6093	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.1620	0.1648	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4890	0.4894	0.4893	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4690	0.3790	0.4105	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6900	0.6590	0.6698	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6570	0.6572	0.6571	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4690	0.4140	0.4333	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.303

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260507_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	800050
playerID	800050
playerName	Chase DeLauter
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	CLE
teamID	8

Tanner Bibee (676440) · PITCHER · Starter · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 8

All-history rows before 20260509: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_ER	2.500	4.000	0.500	-1.000
predicted_IP	2.200	2.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.800	4.000	-2.600	-1.800
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	4.500	4.000	-2.500	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 2.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	25.200	15.000	29.000	11.000	22.000	3.000	5.2597	1.5584	0.5844	1.1299	0.4286	0.8571	0.1169
last_10	0.35	8	39.100	20.000	42.000	16.000	36.000	6.000	4.5763	1.4746	0.5085	1.0678	0.4068	0.9153	0.1525
season	0.20	8	39.100	20.000	42.000	16.000	36.000	6.000	4.5763	1.4746	0.5085	1.0678	0.4068	0.9153	0.1525

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.0830
predicted_ER	2.7130
predicted_ERA	4.8838
predicted_H	5.4790
predicted_HR	0.6820
predicted_IP	5.0000
predicted_SO	4.4460
predicted_WHIP	1.5123

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	2.0830	2.0540	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	2.7130	2.8135	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.8838	4.8838	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	5.4790	4.9613	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.6820	0.7933	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	2.2000	5.0000	4.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	4.4460	3.5899	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5123	1.5123	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.2
H	4
R	3
ER	3
BB	2
SO	2
HR	1
BF	15
Pitches	66

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	19
Pitching_ER	4
Pitching_ERA	4.58
Pitching_Flyouts	6
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	5
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	4.0
Pitching_Pitches	77
Pitching_R	4
Pitching_SO	4
Pitching_Strikes	48
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	676440
playerID	676440
playerName	Tanner Bibee
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	CLE
teamID	8

Erik Sabrowski (681870) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 19

All-history rows before 20260509: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.211	0.000	-0.211	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.663	0.100	0.437	1.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.421	1.000	-0.421	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.200	0.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	0.000	0.0000	0.8182	0.0000	0.2727	0.5454	1.9091	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.100	4.000	4.000	5.000	15.000	1.000	4.3200	1.0800	0.4800	0.4800	0.6000	1.8000	0.1200
season	0.20	19	16.100	4.000	7.000	7.000	27.000	1.000	2.2041	0.8571	0.2449	0.4286	0.4286	1.6531	0.0612

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3970
predicted_ER	0.1590
predicted_ERA	1.9528
predicted_H	0.2760
predicted_HR	0.0400
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	1.3340
predicted_WHIP	0.9176

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3970	0.2581	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1590	0.1034	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.9528	1.9528	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.2760	0.1794	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0400	0.0260	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	0.2000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.3340	1.2171	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9176	0.9176	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	12

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	1
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.20
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	6
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	4
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	681870
playerID	681870
playerName	Erik Sabrowski
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CLE
teamID	8

Cade Smith (671922) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 18

All-history rows before 20260509: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.389	1.000	-0.389	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.006	1.000	-0.006	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.333	1.000	-0.333	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	1.000	4.000	0.000	9.000	0.000	1.6875	0.7500	0.1875	0.7500	0.0000	1.6875	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	2.000	11.000	1.000	14.000	0.000	1.7419	1.1613	0.1935	1.0645	0.0968	1.3548	0.0000
season	0.20	18	18.100	7.000	19.000	4.000	24.000	1.000	3.4364	1.2545	0.3818	1.0364	0.2182	1.3091	0.0546

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.0780
predicted_ER	0.2280
predicted_ERA	2.0563
predicted_H	0.9170
predicted_HR	0.0110
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.4950
predicted_WHIP	0.9949

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.0780	0.4007	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2280	0.1482	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.0563	2.0563	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9170	0.5961	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0110	0.0072	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.4950	1.3218	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9949	0.9949	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	3.44
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	671922
playerID	671922
playerName	Cade Smith
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CLE
teamID	8

Hunter Gaddis (683769) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 10

All-history rows before 20260509: 10

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.700	1.000	0.300	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.560	0.200	0.440	0.800
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.700	0.000	1.300	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.000	4.000	8.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	12.0000	3.3333	1.3333	2.6667	0.6667	0.3333	0.3333
last_10	0.35	9	7.000	6.000	11.000	3.000	7.000	2.000	7.7143	2.0000	0.8571	1.5714	0.4286	1.0000	0.2857
season	0.20	9	7.000	6.000	11.000	3.000	7.000	2.000	7.7143	2.0000	0.8571	1.5714	0.4286	1.0000	0.2857

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3570
predicted_ER	0.7140
predicted_ERA	9.6429
predicted_H	1.3760
predicted_HR	0.2050
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.4670
predicted_WHIP	2.6000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3570	0.2321	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.7140	0.8141	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	9.6429	9.6429	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.3760	0.8944	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2050	0.1333	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.4670	1.0035	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	2.6000	2.6000	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	10
Season rows before report date	10
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	9.00
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	10
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	6
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	683769
playerID	683769
playerName	Hunter Gaddis
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CLE
teamID	8

Matt Festa (670036) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 17

All-history rows before 20260509: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.647	2.000	-0.647	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.865	0.200	0.135	0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.118	2.000	-0.118	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	3.000	4.000	2.000	5.000	2.000	5.4000	1.2000	0.6000	0.8000	0.4000	1.0000	0.4000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	4.000	6.000	3.000	11.000	2.000	3.7241	0.9310	0.4138	0.6207	0.3103	1.1379	0.2069
season	0.20	17	18.200	11.000	18.000	4.000	19.000	4.000	5.3036	1.1786	0.5893	0.9643	0.2143	1.0179	0.2143

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3310
predicted_ER	0.5330
predicted_ERA	4.7942
predicted_H	0.7700
predicted_HR	0.2950
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0520
predicted_WHIP	1.1016

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3310	0.5652	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5330	0.3465	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.7942	4.7942	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.7700	0.8505	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2950	0.1918	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0520	1.0338	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1016	1.1016	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	5.30
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	3
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	670036
playerID	670036
playerName	Matt Festa
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CLE
teamID	8

Tim Herrin (682120) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 15

All-history rows before 20260509: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_IP	0.100	0.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.607	1.000	-0.507	-0.900
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 0.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	WHIP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	4.000	3.000	1.000	1.4000	0.8000	0.6000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	8.100	7.000	5.000	2.000	1.4400	0.8400	0.6000	0.2400
season	0.20	15	11.200	10.000	7.000	5.000	1.4571	0.8571	0.6000	0.4286

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4900
predicted_ER	0.0000
predicted_ERA	0.0000
predicted_H	0.6740
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.2120
predicted_WHIP	1.4254

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.4900	0.6685	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.6740	0.7881	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.2120	0.1378	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4254	1.4254	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.00
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	682120
playerID	682120
playerName	Tim Herrin
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CLE
teamID	8

Colin Holderman (670059) · PITCHER · Reliever · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 8

All-history rows before 20260509: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.438	0.200	-0.238	1.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.500	1.000	-1.500	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	8.100	0.000	4.000	1.000	7.000	0.000	0.0000	0.6000	0.0000	0.4800	0.1200	0.8400	0.0000
last_10	0.35	8	12.200	2.000	6.000	3.000	12.000	1.000	1.4211	0.7105	0.1579	0.4737	0.2368	0.9474	0.0790
season	0.20	8	12.200	2.000	6.000	3.000	12.000	1.000	1.4211	0.7105	0.1579	0.4737	0.2368	0.9474	0.0790

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3070
predicted_ER	0.1450
predicted_ERA	0.7816
predicted_H	0.7940
predicted_HR	0.0720
predicted_IP	1.2000
predicted_SO	1.4980
predicted_WHIP	0.6608

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3070	0.1996	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1450	0.0943	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.7816	0.7816	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7940	0.5161	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0720	0.0468	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.2000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.4980	0.9737	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.6608	0.6608	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.42
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	6
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	670059
playerID	670059
playerName	Colin Holderman
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CLE
teamID	8

20260509_NYM@ARI

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 1, "confidence": 0.58, "home_win_probability": 0.42000000000000004, "away_win_probability": 0.58, "predicted_score_text": "NYM 6 - 1 ARI", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to final winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "predicted_score_text": "NYM 4 - 3 ARI", "confidence": 0.58, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score", "final_prediction_synced": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "NYM 4 - 3 ARI", "winner": "NYM"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 1, "score_text": "NYM 6 - 1 ARI", "winner": "NYM"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 2, "home_run_delta": -2, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"}}

Away Team: NYM

MJ Melendez (669004) · BATTER · DH · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 14

All-history rows before 20260509: 14

System season_avg: 0.3250

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3250

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.214	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.214	0.000	-0.214	0.000
predicted_3B	0.071	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_AB	2.960	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	2.857	4.000	1.143	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.277	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.325	0.000	-0.075	0.250
predicted_BB	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_H	0.820	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.929	0.000	0.071	1.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.363	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.400	0.000	-0.150	0.250
predicted_R	0.286	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.286	0.000	0.714	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.250	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.429	0.000	0.571	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.481	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.600	0.000	-0.350	0.250
predicted_SO	1.071	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.071	2.000	-0.071	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.214	-
predicted_3B	0.071	-
predicted_AB	2.960	-
predicted_AVG	0.277	-
predicted_BB	0.286	-
predicted_H	0.820	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.363	-
predicted_R	0.286	-
predicted_RBI	0.250	-
predicted_SLG	0.481	-
predicted_SO	1.071	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.124	-0.090
predicted_3B	0.117	0.046
predicted_AB	2.759	-0.201
predicted_AVG	0.277	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.240	-0.045
predicted_H	0.763	-0.057
predicted_HBP	0.141	-
predicted_HR	0.065	-0.005
predicted_OBP	0.363	-0.000
predicted_R	0.181	-0.105
predicted_RBI	0.232	-0.018
predicted_SLG	0.481	0.000
predicted_SO	0.965	-0.106

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.96), rates preserved: AVG=0.258 HR/AB=0.022

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	13.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	0.2308	0.3333	0.3846	0.2308	0.0000	0.0000	0.0769	0.3846
last_10	0.35	10	-	26.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	0.3077	0.3793	0.5385	0.3077	0.0385	0.1538	0.0769	0.2692
season	0.20	14	-	40.000	13.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	4.000	4.000	15.000	0.3250	0.4000	0.6000	0.3250	0.0500	0.1500	0.1000	0.3750

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0750
predicted_3B	0.1410
predicted_AB	2.6510
predicted_AVG	0.2766
predicted_BB	0.2160
predicted_H	0.7330
predicted_HBP	0.1410
predicted_HR	0.0620
predicted_OBP	0.3627
predicted_R	0.1240
predicted_RBI	0.2220
predicted_SLG	0.4815
predicted_SO	0.9080

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2140	0.0750	0.1236	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0710	0.1410	0.1165	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.9600	2.6510	2.7591	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2770	0.2766	0.2767	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2860	0.2160	0.2405	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8200	0.7330	0.7634	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1410	0.1410	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0620	0.0648	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3630	0.3627	0.3628	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2860	0.1240	0.1807	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2500	0.2220	0.2318	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4810	0.4815	0.4813	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0710	0.9080	0.9650	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.325

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260508_NYM@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	669004
playerID	669004
playerName	MJ Melendez
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	NYM
teamID	18

Carson Benge (701807) · BATTER · RF · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 30

All-history rows before 20260509: 30

System season_avg: 0.2140

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2136

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	1.000	-0.167	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.433	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.433	3.000	-0.433	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.290	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.214	0.333	0.120	0.000
predicted_BB	0.367	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.367	1.000	0.633	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.970	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.733	1.000	0.267	0.000
predicted_HR	0.150	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.100	0.000	0.900	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.392	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.289	0.500	0.211	0.000
predicted_R	0.467	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.467	0.000	0.533	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.770	3.000	3.000	Hitting_RBI	0.367	1.000	2.633	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.544	1.333	1.333	Hitting_SLG	0.350	0.667	0.984	0.667
predicted_SO	0.800	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.800	1.000	-0.800	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.433	-
predicted_AVG	0.290	-
predicted_BB	0.367	-
predicted_H	0.970	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.392	-
predicted_R	0.467	-
predicted_RBI	0.770	-
predicted_SLG	0.544	-
predicted_SO	0.800	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.330	0.163
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.403	-0.030
predicted_AVG	0.290	0.000
predicted_BB	0.509	0.142
predicted_H	0.979	0.009
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.149	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.392	-0.000
predicted_R	0.661	0.194
predicted_RBI	0.776	0.006
predicted_SLG	0.544	0.000
predicted_SO	0.635	-0.165

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.43), rates preserved: AVG=0.285 HR/AB=0.043

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	3.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	5.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	5.000	4.000	2.000	0.3125	0.4500	0.6875	0.3125	0.0625	0.3125	0.2500	0.1250
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	11.000	3.000	1.000	7.000	6.000	4.000	6.000	0.3056	0.3750	0.4722	0.3056	0.0278	0.1944	0.1111	0.1667
season	0.20	30	-	103.000	22.000	5.000	3.000	11.000	14.000	11.000	24.000	0.2136	0.2895	0.3495	0.2136	0.0291	0.1068	0.1068	0.2330

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.4170
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.3870
predicted_AVG	0.2903
predicted_BB	0.5850
predicted_H	0.9830
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1480
predicted_OBP	0.3916
predicted_R	0.7660
predicted_RBI	0.7790
predicted_SLG	0.5445
predicted_SO	0.5460

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.4170	0.3295	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4330	3.3870	3.4031	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2900	0.2903	0.2902	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3670	0.5850	0.5087	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9700	0.9830	0.9785	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1480	0.1487	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3920	0.3916	0.3917	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4670	0.7660	0.6613	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7700	0.7790	0.7759	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5440	0.5445	0.5443	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8000	0.5460	0.6349	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	3
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.214

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260508_NYM@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	701807
playerID	701807
playerName	Carson Benge
pos	OF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	NYM
teamID	18

Bo Bichette (666182) · BATTER · SS · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 38

All-history rows before 20260509: 38

System season_avg: 0.2310

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2308

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.132	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.132	0.000	-0.132	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.280	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	4.105	4.000	0.895	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.211	0.600	0.600	Hitting_AVG	0.231	0.000	0.369	0.600
predicted_BB	0.237	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.237	0.000	-0.237	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.900	3.000	3.000	Hitting_H	0.947	0.000	2.053	3.000
predicted_HR	0.050	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.053	0.000	0.947	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.252	0.600	0.600	Hitting_OBP	0.269	0.000	0.331	0.600
predicted_R	0.421	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.421	0.000	0.579	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.330	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	0.421	0.000	1.579	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.251	1.200	1.200	Hitting_SLG	0.301	0.000	0.899	1.200
predicted_SO	0.789	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.789	0.000	-0.789	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.132	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.280	-
predicted_AVG	0.211	-
predicted_BB	0.237	-
predicted_H	0.900	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.252	-
predicted_R	0.421	-
predicted_RBI	0.330	-
predicted_SLG	0.251	-
predicted_SO	0.789	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.063	-0.069
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.170	-0.110
predicted_AVG	0.211	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.241	0.004
predicted_H	0.878	-0.022
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.048	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.252	-0.000
predicted_R	0.295	-0.126
predicted_RBI	0.321	-0.009
predicted_SLG	0.251	0.000
predicted_SO	0.506	-0.283

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.28), rates preserved: AVG=0.205 HR/AB=0.011

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 4.280

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	0.1905	0.2273	0.1905	0.1905	0.0000	0.0476	0.0476	0.0476
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	9.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	3.000	3.000	0.2250	0.2727	0.3000	0.2250	0.0250	0.1000	0.0750	0.0750
season	0.20	38	-	156.000	36.000	5.000	2.000	16.000	16.000	9.000	30.000	0.2308	0.2695	0.3013	0.2308	0.0128	0.1026	0.0577	0.1923

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0260
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.1110
predicted_AVG	0.2106
predicted_BB	0.2430
predicted_H	0.8660
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0470
predicted_OBP	0.2516
predicted_R	0.2280
predicted_RBI	0.3160
predicted_SLG	0.2510
predicted_SO	0.3540

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1320	0.0260	0.0631	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.2800	4.1110	4.1701	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2110	0.2106	0.2107	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2370	0.2430	0.2409	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9000	0.8660	0.8779	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0470	0.0480	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2520	0.2516	0.2517	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4210	0.2280	0.2955	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3300	0.3160	0.3209	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2510	0.2510	0.2510	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7890	0.3540	0.5062	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	3
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.231

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS-3B
gameID	20260508_NYM@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	666182
playerID	666182
playerName	Bo Bichette
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	NYM
teamID	18

Mark Vientos (668901) · BATTER · 1B · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 27

All-history rows before 20260509: 27

System season_avg: 0.2320

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2316

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.185	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.185	1.000	-0.185	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.570	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.519	4.000	0.481	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.251	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.232	0.500	-0.232	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.259	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.259	0.000	-0.259	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.900	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.815	2.000	-0.815	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.380	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.185	1.000	-0.185	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.296	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.282	0.500	-0.282	-0.500
predicted_R	0.407	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.407	1.000	-0.407	-1.000
predicted_RBI	1.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.593	2.000	-0.593	-2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.628	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.442	1.500	-0.442	-1.500
predicted_SO	0.889	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.889	0.000	-0.889	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.185	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.570	-
predicted_AVG	0.251	-
predicted_BB	0.259	-
predicted_H	0.900	-
predicted_HR	0.380	-
predicted_OBP	0.296	-
predicted_R	0.407	-
predicted_RBI	1.060	-
predicted_SLG	0.628	-
predicted_SO	0.889	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.216	0.031
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.742	0.172
predicted_AVG	0.251	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.253	-0.007
predicted_H	0.940	0.040
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.396	0.016
predicted_OBP	0.296	-0.000
predicted_R	0.483	0.076
predicted_RBI	1.110	0.050
predicted_SLG	0.628	0.000
predicted_SO	0.835	-0.054

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.74), rates preserved: AVG=0.251 HR/AB=0.106

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	5.000	1.000	3.000	8.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	0.2500	0.2857	0.7500	0.2500	0.1500	0.4000	0.0500	0.1500
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	10.000	3.000	3.000	9.000	5.000	3.000	10.000	0.2632	0.3171	0.5789	0.2632	0.0790	0.2368	0.0790	0.2632
season	0.20	27	-	95.000	22.000	5.000	5.000	16.000	11.000	7.000	24.000	0.2316	0.2816	0.4421	0.2316	0.0526	0.1684	0.0737	0.2526

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2330
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.8340
predicted_AVG	0.2509
predicted_BB	0.2490
predicted_H	0.9620
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.4050
predicted_OBP	0.2959
predicted_R	0.5240
predicted_RBI	1.1370
predicted_SLG	0.6285
predicted_SO	0.8060

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1850	0.2330	0.2162	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5700	3.8340	3.7416	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2510	0.2509	0.2509	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2590	0.2490	0.2525	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9000	0.9620	0.9403	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3800	0.4050	0.3962	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2960	0.2959	0.2959	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4070	0.5240	0.4830	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	1.0600	1.1370	1.1100	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6280	0.6285	0.6283	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8890	0.8060	0.8351	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.232

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	6
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260508_NYM@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	668901
playerID	668901
playerName	Mark Vientos
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	NYM
teamID	18

Marcus Semien (543760) · BATTER · 2B · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 38

All-history rows before 20260509: 38

System season_avg: 0.2280

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2279

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.158	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.158	0.000	-0.158	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.579	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.579	4.000	0.421	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.258	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.228	0.250	0.022	0.000
predicted_BB	0.263	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.263	0.000	-0.263	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_H	0.870	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.816	1.000	0.184	0.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.322	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.284	0.250	-0.034	0.000
predicted_R	0.316	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.316	0.000	0.684	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.342	0.000	-0.342	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.132	1.000	-0.132	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.415	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.316	0.250	-0.066	0.000
predicted_SO	0.763	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.763	1.000	0.237	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.158	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.579	-
predicted_AVG	0.258	-
predicted_BB	0.263	-
predicted_H	0.870	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.322	-
predicted_R	0.316	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.415	-
predicted_SO	0.763	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.157	-0.001
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.590	0.011
predicted_AVG	0.258	0.000
predicted_BB	0.312	0.049
predicted_H	0.908	0.038
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.133	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.322	0.000
predicted_R	0.522	0.206
predicted_RBI	0.415	0.015
predicted_SLG	0.415	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.737	-0.026

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.59), rates preserved: AVG=0.253 HR/AB=0.037

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, BvP AVG=0.250)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	4.000	0.2778	0.3500	0.5000	0.2778	0.0556	0.1111	0.1111	0.2222
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	9.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	6.000	3.000	6.000	0.2500	0.3077	0.3611	0.2500	0.0278	0.1389	0.0833	0.1667
season	0.20	38	-	136.000	31.000	6.000	2.000	13.000	12.000	10.000	29.000	0.2279	0.2838	0.3162	0.2279	0.0147	0.0956	0.0735	0.2132

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1570
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.5960
predicted_AVG	0.2581
predicted_BB	0.3380
predicted_H	0.9280
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.1350
predicted_OBP	0.3220
predicted_R	0.6330
predicted_RBI	0.4230
predicted_SLG	0.4146
predicted_SO	0.7230

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1580	0.1570	0.1573	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5790	3.5960	3.5901	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2580	0.2581	0.2581	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2630	0.3380	0.3118	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8700	0.9280	0.9077	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1350	0.1333	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3220	0.3220	0.3220	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3160	0.6330	0.5221	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.4230	0.4150	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4150	0.4146	0.4147	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7630	0.7230	0.7370	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.228

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260508_NYM@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	543760
playerID	543760
playerName	Marcus Semien
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	NYM
teamID	18

Juan Soto (665742) · BATTER · LF · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 22

All-history rows before 20260509: 22

System season_avg: 0.2740

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2738

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_3B	0.045	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.045	0.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_AB	4.210	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.818	4.000	1.182	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.190	0.400	0.400	Hitting_AVG	0.274	0.000	0.126	0.400
predicted_BB	0.591	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.591	0.000	-0.591	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.045	0.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_H	0.800	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	1.045	0.000	0.955	2.000
predicted_HR	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.246	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.367	0.000	0.033	0.400
predicted_R	0.455	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.455	0.000	0.545	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.480	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.455	0.000	-0.455	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.045	0.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.462	0.400	0.400	Hitting_SLG	0.488	0.000	-0.088	0.400
predicted_SO	0.727	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.727	2.000	-0.727	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	-
predicted_3B	0.045	-
predicted_AB	4.210	-
predicted_AVG	0.190	-
predicted_BB	0.591	-
predicted_H	0.800	-
predicted_HR	0.250	-
predicted_OBP	0.246	-
predicted_R	0.455	-
predicted_RBI	0.480	-
predicted_SLG	0.462	-
predicted_SO	0.727	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.134	-0.048
predicted_3B	0.102	0.057
predicted_AB	4.027	-0.183
predicted_AVG	0.190	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.435	-0.156
predicted_H	0.764	-0.036
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.238	-0.012
predicted_OBP	0.246	0.000
predicted_R	0.495	0.040
predicted_RBI	0.459	-0.021
predicted_SLG	0.462	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.823	0.096

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.21), rates preserved: AVG=0.181 HR/AB=0.057

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=19.0, BvP AVG=0.263)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 4.210

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	0.1000	0.1364	0.3500	0.1000	0.0500	0.1000	0.0500	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	10.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	7.000	4.000	8.000	0.2564	0.3182	0.5897	0.2564	0.0769	0.1282	0.1026	0.2051
season	0.20	22	-	84.000	23.000	4.000	1.000	4.000	10.000	10.000	13.000	16.000	0.2738	0.3673	0.4881	0.2738	0.0476	0.1191	0.1548	0.1905

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1080
predicted_3B	0.1330
predicted_AB	3.9290
predicted_AVG	0.1895
predicted_BB	0.3510
predicted_H	0.7440
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.2320
predicted_OBP	0.2462
predicted_R	0.5170
predicted_RBI	0.4470
predicted_SLG	0.4615
predicted_SO	0.8740

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1820	0.1080	0.1339	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0450	0.1330	0.1022	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.2100	3.9290	4.0274	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1900	0.1895	0.1897	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5910	0.3510	0.4350	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8000	0.7440	0.7636	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2500	0.2320	0.2383	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2460	0.2462	0.2461	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4550	0.5170	0.4953	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4800	0.4470	0.4586	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4620	0.4615	0.4617	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7270	0.8740	0.8226	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.274

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260508_NYM@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	665742
playerID	665742
playerName	Juan Soto
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	NYM
teamID	18

Tyrone Taylor (621438) · BATTER · CF · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 16

All-history rows before 20260509: 16

System season_avg: 0.2390

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2391

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.062	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.875	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	2.875	2.000	1.125	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.252	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.239	0.500	-0.239	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.610	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.688	1.000	-0.688	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.285	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.271	0.500	-0.271	-0.500
predicted_R	0.062	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.312	1.000	-0.312	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.302	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.326	0.500	-0.326	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.438	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.438	1.000	0.562	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.062	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.875	-
predicted_AVG	0.252	-
predicted_BB	0.125	-
predicted_H	0.610	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.285	-
predicted_R	0.062	-
predicted_RBI	0.320	-
predicted_SLG	0.302	-
predicted_SO	0.438	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.031	-0.031
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.103	0.228
predicted_AVG	0.252	0.000
predicted_BB	0.141	0.016
predicted_H	0.742	0.132
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.046	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.285	0.000
predicted_R	0.054	-0.008
predicted_RBI	0.383	0.063
predicted_SLG	0.302	0.000
predicted_SO	0.521	0.083

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.10), rates preserved: AVG=0.239 HR/AB=0.015

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, BvP AVG=0.125)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	0.2353	0.2778	0.2353	0.2353	0.0000	0.1177	0.0588	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	-	32.000	9.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	0.2812	0.3030	0.3750	0.2812	0.0312	0.1562	0.0312	0.1875
season	0.20	16	-	46.000	11.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	0.2391	0.2708	0.3261	0.2391	0.0217	0.1087	0.0435	0.1522

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0140
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.2250
predicted_AVG	0.2521
predicted_BB	0.1490
predicted_H	0.8130
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0490
predicted_OBP	0.2852
predicted_R	0.0490
predicted_RBI	0.4170
predicted_SLG	0.3024
predicted_SO	0.5660

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0620	0.0140	0.0308	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.8750	3.2250	3.1025	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2520	0.2521	0.2521	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1250	0.1490	0.1406	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6100	0.8130	0.7419	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0490	0.0459	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2850	0.2852	0.2851	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0620	0.0490	0.0536	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3200	0.4170	0.3831	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3020	0.3024	0.3023	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4380	0.5660	0.5212	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.239

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	1
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260507_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	621438
playerID	621438
playerName	Tyrone Taylor
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	NYM
teamID	18

Brett Baty (683146) · BATTER · 3B · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 29

All-history rows before 20260509: 29

System season_avg: 0.2180

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2178

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.172	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.172	0.000	-0.172	0.000
predicted_3B	0.034	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.034	0.000	-0.034	0.000
predicted_AB	3.483	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.483	4.000	0.517	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.167	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.218	0.000	0.032	0.250
predicted_BB	0.276	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.276	0.000	-0.276	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.034	0.000	-0.034	0.000
predicted_H	0.540	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.759	0.000	0.241	1.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.034	0.000	-0.034	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.325	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.279	0.000	-0.029	0.250
predicted_R	0.483	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.483	1.000	0.517	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.379	0.000	-0.379	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.069	0.000	-0.069	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.224	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.317	0.000	-0.067	0.250
predicted_SO	1.069	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.069	1.000	-1.069	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.172	-
predicted_3B	0.034	-
predicted_AB	3.483	-
predicted_AVG	0.167	-
predicted_BB	0.276	-
predicted_H	0.540	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.325	-
predicted_R	0.483	-
predicted_RBI	0.070	-
predicted_SLG	0.224	-
predicted_SO	1.069	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.163	-0.009
predicted_3B	0.016	-0.018
predicted_AB	3.395	-0.088
predicted_AVG	0.167	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.528	0.252
predicted_H	0.552	0.012
predicted_HBP	0.132	-
predicted_HR	0.008	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.325	-0.000
predicted_R	0.579	0.096
predicted_RBI	0.072	0.002
predicted_SLG	0.224	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.010	-0.059

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.48), rates preserved: AVG=0.158 HR/AB=0.002

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	4.000	5.000	0.1765	0.3636	0.2353	0.1765	0.0000	0.0000	0.2353	0.2941
last_10	0.35	10	-	32.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	5.000	7.000	9.000	0.1250	0.3000	0.1562	0.1250	0.0000	0.0000	0.2188	0.2812
season	0.20	29	-	101.000	22.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	11.000	14.000	8.000	31.000	0.2178	0.2793	0.3168	0.2178	0.0099	0.1089	0.0792	0.3069

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1580
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.3470
predicted_AVG	0.1667
predicted_BB	0.6640
predicted_H	0.5580
predicted_HBP	0.1320
predicted_HR	0.0070
predicted_OBP	0.3245
predicted_R	0.6300
predicted_RBI	0.0730
predicted_SLG	0.2239
predicted_SO	0.9780

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1720	0.1580	0.1629	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0340	0.0070	0.0164	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4830	3.3470	3.3946	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1670	0.1667	0.1668	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2760	0.6640	0.5282	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5400	0.5580	0.5517	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1320	0.1320	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0070	0.0080	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3250	0.3245	0.3247	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4830	0.6300	0.5786	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0700	0.0730	0.0720	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2240	0.2239	0.2239	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0690	0.9780	1.0099	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.218

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B-1B
gameID	20260508_NYM@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	683146
playerID	683146
playerName	Brett Baty
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	NYM
teamID	18

Francisco Alvarez (682626) · BATTER · C · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 30

All-history rows before 20260509: 30

System season_avg: 0.2330

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2330

Diff (system - data): -0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.433	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.433	4.000	0.567	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.261	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.233	0.250	0.017	0.000
predicted_BB	0.367	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.367	0.000	-0.367	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.790	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.800	1.000	0.200	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.320	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.316	0.250	-0.066	0.000
predicted_R	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.300	0.000	-0.300	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.322	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.379	0.250	-0.129	0.000
predicted_SO	0.867	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.867	1.000	1.133	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.100	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.433	-
predicted_AVG	0.261	-
predicted_BB	0.367	-
predicted_H	0.790	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.320	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.180	-
predicted_SLG	0.322	-
predicted_SO	0.867	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.129	0.029
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.647	0.214
predicted_AVG	0.261	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.340	-0.027
predicted_H	0.913	0.123
predicted_HBP	0.015	-
predicted_HR	0.026	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.320	0.000
predicted_R	0.345	0.012
predicted_RBI	0.207	0.027
predicted_SLG	0.322	0.000
predicted_SO	0.980	0.113

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.65), rates preserved: AVG=0.250 HR/AB=0.007

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	0.3158	0.3810	0.3684	0.3158	0.0000	0.0526	0.1053	0.2632
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	8.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	12.000	0.2051	0.2439	0.2308	0.2051	0.0000	0.0513	0.0513	0.3077
season	0.20	30	-	103.000	24.000	3.000	4.000	9.000	10.000	11.000	26.000	0.2330	0.3162	0.3786	0.2330	0.0388	0.0874	0.1068	0.2524

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1450
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7620
predicted_AVG	0.2605
predicted_BB	0.3260
predicted_H	0.9800
predicted_HBP	0.0150
predicted_HR	0.0290
predicted_OBP	0.3201
predicted_R	0.3520
predicted_RBI	0.2220
predicted_SLG	0.3223
predicted_SO	1.0400

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1000	0.1450	0.1293	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4330	3.7620	3.6468	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2610	0.2605	0.2607	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3670	0.3260	0.3403	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7900	0.9800	0.9135	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0150	0.0150	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0290	0.0259	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3200	0.3201	0.3201	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.3520	0.3453	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1800	0.2220	0.2073	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3220	0.3223	0.3222	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8670	1.0400	0.9795	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.233

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260508_NYM@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	682626
playerID	682626
playerName	Francisco Alvarez
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	NYM
teamID	18

Clay Holmes (605280) · PITCHER · Starter · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 7

All-history rows before 20260509: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.143	1.000	-1.143	-1.000
predicted_IP	4.200	4.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.929	6.200	-1.729	-2.000
predicted_SO	7.000	7.000	-	Pitching_SO	4.429	6.000	2.571	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 4.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	30.000	6.000	21.000	9.000	22.000	2.000	1.8000	1.0000	0.2000	0.7000	0.3000	0.7333	0.0667
last_10	0.35	7	42.200	8.000	28.000	14.000	31.000	3.000	1.6875	0.9844	0.1875	0.6562	0.3281	0.7266	0.0703
season	0.20	7	42.200	8.000	28.000	14.000	31.000	3.000	1.6875	0.9844	0.1875	0.6562	0.3281	0.7266	0.0703

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.8930
predicted_ER	1.1590
predicted_ERA	1.7381
predicted_H	4.0560
predicted_HR	0.4120
predicted_IP	6.0000
predicted_SO	4.3780
predicted_WHIP	0.9914

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	1.8930	1.5804	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	1.1590	0.7534	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.7381	1.7381	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	4.0560	3.3364	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.4120	0.2678	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.2000	6.0000	5.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	7.0000	4.3780	5.2957	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9914	0.9914	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.2
H	2
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	7
HR	0
BF	18
Pitches	76

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	26
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	1.69
Pitching_Flyouts	4
Pitching_Groundouts	7
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.2
Pitching_Pitches	99
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	6
Pitching_Strikes	71
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_NYM@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	605280
playerID	605280
playerName	Clay Holmes
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	NYM
teamID	18

Brooks Raley (548384) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 16

All-history rows before 20260509: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.125	0.000	0.875	1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.806	1.000	0.294	0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.125	0.000	-1.125	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	0.000	2.000	1.000	7.000	0.000	0.0000	0.5625	0.0000	0.3750	0.1875	1.3125	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	2.000	6.000	4.000	10.000	1.000	1.9286	1.0714	0.2143	0.6429	0.4286	1.0714	0.1071
season	0.20	16	15.000	2.000	8.000	5.000	18.000	1.000	1.2000	0.8667	0.1333	0.5333	0.3333	1.2000	0.0667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3010
predicted_ER	0.1020
predicted_ERA	0.9150
predicted_H	0.5000
predicted_HR	0.0510
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.2060
predicted_WHIP	0.8015

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3010	0.1956	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.1020	0.4163	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.9150	0.9150	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.5000	0.6750	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0510	0.3831	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.0000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.2060	0.7839	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.8015	0.8015	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	1
BF	4
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.20
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_NYM@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	548384
playerID	548384
playerName	Brooks Raley
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYM
teamID	18

Devin Williams (642207) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 15

All-history rows before 20260509: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.533	0.000	-0.533	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.767	1.000	0.333	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.400	1.000	-0.400	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	0.000	1.000	0.000	6.000	0.000	0.0000	0.2143	0.0000	0.2143	0.0000	1.2857	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.200	6.000	11.000	1.000	16.000	1.000	6.2308	1.3846	0.6923	1.2692	0.1154	1.8461	0.1154
season	0.20	14	12.200	6.000	14.000	3.000	21.000	1.000	4.2632	1.3421	0.4737	1.1053	0.2368	1.6579	0.0790

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.0880
predicted_ER	0.3370
predicted_ERA	3.0334
predicted_H	0.7620
predicted_HR	0.0560
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.5560
predicted_WHIP	0.8495

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0880	0.0572	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3370	0.2191	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.0334	3.0334	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.7620	0.8453	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0560	0.0364	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.0000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.5560	1.3614	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.8495	0.8495	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.68
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	8
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	5
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_NYM@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	642207
playerID	642207
playerName	Devin Williams
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYM
teamID	18

Huascar Brazobán (623211) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 16

All-history rows before 20260509: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.188	1.000	-0.188	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.856	1.000	0.144	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.875	1.000	1.125	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.100	2.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	0.000	2.8421	0.9474	0.3158	0.4737	0.4737	0.6316	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	12.000	3.000	8.000	5.000	11.000	1.000	2.2500	1.0833	0.2500	0.6667	0.4167	0.9167	0.0833
season	0.20	16	17.200	3.000	12.000	5.000	14.000	1.000	1.5283	0.9623	0.1698	0.6793	0.2830	0.7924	0.0566

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5260
predicted_ER	0.3340
predicted_ERA	2.3721
predicted_H	0.7380
predicted_HR	0.0510
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	0.9670
predicted_WHIP	0.9979

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5260	0.3419	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3340	0.2171	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.3721	2.3721	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7380	0.4797	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0510	0.0331	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.1000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.9670	1.3285	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9979	0.9979	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	1.53
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	25
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	623211
playerID	623211
playerName	Huascar Brazobán
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYM
teamID	18

Luke Weaver (596133) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 16

All-history rows before 20260509: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.919	1.000	-0.719	-0.800
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	2.000	5.000	2.000	9.000	1.000	3.3750	1.3125	0.3750	0.9375	0.3750	1.6875	0.1875
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	6.000	10.000	4.000	13.000	2.000	5.0625	1.3125	0.5625	0.9375	0.3750	1.2188	0.1875
season	0.20	16	16.100	8.000	13.000	6.000	16.000	2.000	4.4082	1.1633	0.4898	0.7959	0.3674	0.9796	0.1225

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3730
predicted_ER	0.4640
predicted_ERA	4.1723
predicted_H	0.9090
predicted_HR	0.1740
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.3820
predicted_WHIP	1.2827

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3730	0.2424	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4640	0.3016	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.1723	4.1723	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.9090	1.2908	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1740	0.1131	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.3820	1.5983	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2827	1.2827	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	2
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.41
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	24
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	14
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_NYM@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	596133
playerID	596133
playerName	Luke Weaver
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYM
teamID	18

Home Team: ARI

Ryan Waldschmidt (814439) · BATTER · CF · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 0

All-history rows before 20260509: 0

System season_avg: 0.0000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): -

Diff (system - data): -

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	-	-	-	-
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	-	-	-	-
predicted_AB	0.000	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	-	-	-	-
predicted_AVG	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	-	-	-	-
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	-	-	-	-
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	-	-	-	-
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	-	-	-	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	-	-	-	-
predicted_OBP	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	-	-	-	-
predicted_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	-	-	-	-
predicted_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	-	-	-	-
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	-	-	-	-
predicted_SLG	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	-	-	-	-
predicted_SO	0.000	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	-	-	-	-

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw XGBoost model output

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	0.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.000	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.000	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.000	-
predicted_SLG	0.000	-
predicted_SO	0.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.471	2.471
predicted_AVG	0.000	0.000
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.000	0.000
predicted_R	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.000	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.47), rates preserved: AVG=0.000 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 0

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Total PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
last_10	0.35	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
season	0.20	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.8020
predicted_BB	0.0000
predicted_H	0.0000
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_R	0.0000
predicted_RBI	0.0000
predicted_SO	0.0000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	0.0000	3.8020	2.4713	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.0000	-	0.0000	model_only
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.0000	-	0.0000	model_only
predicted_R	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.0000	-	0.0000	model_only
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	0
Season rows before report date	0
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	0
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.0

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

No historical data found for this player before report date.

Adrian Del Castillo (680728) · BATTER · DH · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 19

All-history rows before 20260509: 19

System season_avg: 0.1920

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1918

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.158	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.158	0.000	-0.158	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.890	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.842	3.000	0.158	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.166	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.192	0.000	-0.192	0.000
predicted_BB	0.158	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.158	0.000	-0.158	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.650	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.737	0.000	-0.737	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.105	0.000	-0.105	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.186	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.221	0.000	-0.221	0.000
predicted_R	0.316	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.316	0.000	-0.316	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.640	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.684	0.000	-0.684	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.315	0.000	-0.315	0.000
predicted_SO	1.263	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.263	1.000	-1.263	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.158	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.890	-
predicted_AVG	0.166	-
predicted_BB	0.158	-
predicted_H	0.650	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.186	-
predicted_R	0.316	-
predicted_RBI	0.640	-
predicted_SLG	0.230	-
predicted_SO	1.263	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.097	-0.061
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.674	-0.216
predicted_AVG	0.166	0.000
predicted_BB	0.119	-0.039
predicted_H	0.612	-0.038
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.056	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.186	0.000
predicted_R	0.194	-0.122
predicted_RBI	0.602	-0.038
predicted_SLG	0.230	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.299	0.036

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.89), rates preserved: AVG=0.157 HR/AB=0.014

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 3.890

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	6.000	0.1765	0.1765	0.1765	0.1765	0.0000	0.1765	0.0000	0.3529
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	2.000	15.000	0.1389	0.1795	0.2500	0.1389	0.0278	0.1389	0.0556	0.4167
season	0.20	19	-	73.000	14.000	3.000	2.000	13.000	6.000	3.000	24.000	0.1918	0.2208	0.3151	0.1918	0.0274	0.1781	0.0411	0.3288

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0640
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.5580
predicted_AVG	0.1664
predicted_BB	0.0980
predicted_H	0.5920
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0540
predicted_OBP	0.1864
predicted_R	0.1280
predicted_RBI	0.5820
predicted_SLG	0.2299
predicted_SO	1.3180

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1580	0.0640	0.0969	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8900	3.5580	3.6742	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1660	0.1664	0.1663	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1580	0.0980	0.1190	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6500	0.5920	0.6123	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0540	0.0561	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1860	0.1864	0.1863	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3160	0.1280	0.1938	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6400	0.5820	0.6023	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2300	0.2299	0.2299	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2630	1.3180	1.2988	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.192

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260508_NYM@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	680728
playerID	680728
playerName	Adrian Del Castillo
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	ARI
teamID	1

Ketel Marte (606466) · BATTER · 2B · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 33

All-history rows before 20260509: 33

System season_avg: 0.2100

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2101

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.091	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_3B	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_AB	4.600	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	4.182	4.000	-1.182	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.133	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.210	0.000	-0.210	0.000
predicted_BB	0.273	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.273	0.000	0.727	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.610	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.879	0.000	-0.879	0.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.152	0.000	-0.152	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.156	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.259	0.000	-0.009	0.250
predicted_R	0.576	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.576	0.000	-0.576	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.430	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.394	0.000	-0.394	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.244	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.355	0.000	-0.355	0.000
predicted_SO	0.879	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.879	1.000	0.121	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.091	-
predicted_3B	0.030	-
predicted_AB	4.600	-
predicted_AVG	0.133	-
predicted_BB	0.273	-
predicted_H	0.610	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.156	-
predicted_R	0.576	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.244	-
predicted_SO	0.879	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.044	-0.047
predicted_3B	0.095	0.065
predicted_AB	4.396	-0.204
predicted_AVG	0.133	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.178	-0.095
predicted_H	0.584	-0.026
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.068	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.156	0.000
predicted_R	0.462	-0.114
predicted_RBI	0.410	-0.020
predicted_SLG	0.244	0.000
predicted_SO	0.999	0.120

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 5 (raw=4.60), rates preserved: AVG=0.127 HR/AB=0.015

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	5.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-2.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 4.600

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	22.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	0.000	6.000	0.0909	0.0909	0.1818	0.0909	0.0000	0.0909	0.0000	0.2727
last_10	0.35	10	-	42.000	6.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	2.000	10.000	0.1429	0.1818	0.2619	0.1429	0.0238	0.0952	0.0476	0.2381
season	0.20	33	-	138.000	29.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	13.000	19.000	9.000	29.000	0.2101	0.2585	0.3551	0.2101	0.0362	0.0942	0.0652	0.2101

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0190
predicted_3B	0.1300
predicted_AB	4.2860
predicted_AVG	0.1329
predicted_BB	0.1270
predicted_H	0.5700
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0670
predicted_OBP	0.1562
predicted_R	0.4010
predicted_RBI	0.3990
predicted_SLG	0.2445
predicted_SO	1.0630

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0910	0.0190	0.0442	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0300	0.1300	0.0950	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.6000	4.2860	4.3959	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1330	0.1329	0.1329	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2730	0.1270	0.1781	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6100	0.5700	0.5840	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0670	0.0680	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1560	0.1562	0.1561	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5760	0.4010	0.4623	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.3990	0.4099	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2440	0.2445	0.2443	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8790	1.0630	0.9986	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260507_PIT@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	606466
playerID	606466
playerName	Ketel Marte
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	ARI
teamID	1

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (666971) · BATTER · LF · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 14

All-history rows before 20260509: 14

System season_avg: 0.2350

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2353

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.643	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.643	4.000	0.357	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.307	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.235	0.000	-0.235	0.000
predicted_BB	0.429	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.429	0.000	-0.429	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.857	0.000	-0.857	0.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.416	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.316	0.000	-0.316	0.000
predicted_R	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.365	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.275	0.000	-0.275	0.000
predicted_SO	0.643	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.643	0.000	1.357	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.643	-
predicted_AVG	0.307	-
predicted_BB	0.429	-
predicted_H	1.040	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.416	-
predicted_R	0.286	-
predicted_RBI	0.150	-
predicted_SLG	0.365	-
predicted_SO	0.643	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.174	0.031
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.423	-0.220
predicted_AVG	0.307	0.000
predicted_BB	0.566	0.137
predicted_H	1.023	-0.017
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.416	0.000
predicted_R	0.327	0.041
predicted_RBI	0.151	0.001
predicted_SLG	0.365	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.666	0.023

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.64), rates preserved: AVG=0.281 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, BvP AVG=0.250)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	0.3333	0.4737	0.4000	0.3333	0.0000	0.2667	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	11.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	5.000	8.000	0.3143	0.4000	0.3714	0.3143	0.0857	0.1429	0.2286
season	0.20	14	-	51.000	12.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	6.000	9.000	0.2353	0.3158	0.2745	0.2353	0.0784	0.1177	0.1765

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1910
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.3040
predicted_AVG	0.3070
predicted_BB	0.6390
predicted_H	1.0140
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.4163
predicted_R	0.3490
predicted_RBI	0.1510
predicted_SLG	0.3649
predicted_SO	0.6780

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.1910	0.1742	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6430	3.3040	3.4226	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3070	0.3070	0.3070	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4290	0.6390	0.5655	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0400	1.0140	1.0231	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4160	0.4163	0.4162	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2860	0.3490	0.3269	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1500	0.1510	0.1507	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3650	0.3649	0.3649	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6430	0.6780	0.6658	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.235

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260508_NYM@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	666971
playerID	666971
playerName	Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	ARI
teamID	1

Nolan Arenado (571448) · BATTER · 3B · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 34

All-history rows before 20260509: 34

System season_avg: 0.2740

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2735

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.088	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.088	0.000	-0.088	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.441	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.441	4.000	0.559	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.271	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.274	0.250	-0.024	0.000
predicted_BB	0.235	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.235	0.000	-0.235	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.880	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.941	1.000	0.059	0.000
predicted_HR	0.210	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.176	1.000	-0.176	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.380	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.323	0.250	-0.073	0.000
predicted_R	0.529	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.529	1.000	-0.529	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.529	1.000	-0.529	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.512	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.453	1.000	-0.203	-0.750
predicted_SO	0.765	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.765	1.000	0.235	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.088	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.441	-
predicted_AVG	0.271	-
predicted_BB	0.235	-
predicted_H	0.880	-
predicted_HR	0.210	-
predicted_OBP	0.380	-
predicted_R	0.529	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.512	-
predicted_SO	0.765	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.124	0.036
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.189	-0.252
predicted_AVG	0.271	0.000
predicted_BB	0.348	0.113
predicted_H	0.846	-0.034
predicted_HBP	0.134	-
predicted_HR	0.202	-0.008
predicted_OBP	0.380	-0.000
predicted_R	0.569	0.040
predicted_RBI	0.343	-0.017
predicted_SLG	0.512	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.762	-0.003

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.44), rates preserved: AVG=0.246 HR/AB=0.059

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, BvP AVG=0.286)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	4.000	0.2667	0.3889	0.5333	0.2667	0.0667	0.0667	0.1333	0.2667
last_10	0.35	10	-	29.000	8.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	6.000	5.000	7.000	0.2759	0.4000	0.5172	0.2759	0.0690	0.1379	0.1724	0.2414
season	0.20	34	-	117.000	32.000	3.000	6.000	18.000	18.000	8.000	26.000	0.2735	0.3228	0.4530	0.2735	0.0513	0.1538	0.0684	0.2222

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1440
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.0530
predicted_AVG	0.2713
predicted_BB	0.4090
predicted_H	0.8280
predicted_HBP	0.1340
predicted_HR	0.1970
predicted_OBP	0.3796
predicted_R	0.5900
predicted_RBI	0.3330
predicted_SLG	0.5116
predicted_SO	0.7600

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0880	0.1440	0.1244	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4410	3.0530	3.1888	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2710	0.2713	0.2712	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2350	0.4090	0.3481	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8800	0.8280	0.8462	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1340	0.1340	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2100	0.1970	0.2016	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3800	0.3796	0.3797	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5290	0.5900	0.5686	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.3330	0.3425	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5120	0.5116	0.5117	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7650	0.7600	0.7618	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.274

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260508_NYM@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	571448
playerID	571448
playerName	Nolan Arenado
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	ARI
teamID	1

Gabriel Moreno (672515) · BATTER · C · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 15

All-history rows before 20260509: 15

System season_avg: 0.2220

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2222

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.267	2.000	2.000	Hitting_2B	0.267	0.000	1.733	2.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.600	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.600	2.000	-0.600	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.190	0.667	0.667	Hitting_AVG	0.222	0.000	0.444	0.667
predicted_BB	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	2.000	-0.333	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.600	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.800	0.000	1.200	2.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.274	0.667	0.667	Hitting_OBP	0.295	0.500	0.372	0.167
predicted_R	0.467	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.467	0.000	-0.467	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.430	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.365	1.333	1.333	Hitting_SLG	0.352	0.000	0.981	1.333
predicted_SO	0.867	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.867	0.000	-0.867	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.267	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.600	-
predicted_AVG	0.190	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.600	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.274	-
predicted_R	0.467	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.365	-
predicted_SO	0.867	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.232	-0.035
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.577	-0.023
predicted_AVG	0.190	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.368	0.035
predicted_H	0.649	0.049
predicted_HBP	0.049	-
predicted_HR	0.132	0.012
predicted_OBP	0.274	0.000
predicted_R	0.455	-0.012
predicted_RBI	0.468	0.038
predicted_SLG	0.365	0.000
predicted_SO	0.994	0.127

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.60), rates preserved: AVG=0.180 HR/AB=0.037

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	2.000	2.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	6.000	0.1667	0.2500	0.3889	0.1667	0.0556	0.1667	0.1111	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	5.000	4.000	10.000	0.2000	0.2927	0.3429	0.2000	0.0286	0.1143	0.1143	0.2857
season	0.20	15	-	54.000	12.000	4.000	1.000	6.000	7.000	5.000	13.000	0.2222	0.2951	0.3519	0.2222	0.0185	0.1111	0.0926	0.2407

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2130
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.5650
predicted_AVG	0.1895
predicted_BB	0.3870
predicted_H	0.6750
predicted_HBP	0.0490
predicted_HR	0.1380
predicted_OBP	0.2740
predicted_R	0.4490
predicted_RBI	0.4890
predicted_SLG	0.3654
predicted_SO	1.0630

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2670	0.2130	0.2319	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6000	3.5650	3.5773	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1900	0.1895	0.1897	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.3870	0.3681	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6000	0.6750	0.6488	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0490	0.0490	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1380	0.1317	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2740	0.2740	0.2740	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4670	0.4490	0.4553	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.4890	0.4684	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3650	0.3654	0.3653	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8670	1.0630	0.9944	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	2
2B	2
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.222

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260508_NYM@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	672515
playerID	672515
playerName	Gabriel Moreno
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	ARI
teamID	1

Corbin Carroll (682998) · BATTER · RF · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 35

All-history rows before 20260509: 35

System season_avg: 0.2660

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2661

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.229	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.229	1.000	-0.229	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.114	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.114	0.000	-0.114	0.000
predicted_AB	3.680	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.543	3.000	0.457	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.208	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.266	0.333	-0.016	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.514	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.514	0.000	-0.514	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.770	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.943	1.000	0.057	0.000
predicted_HR	0.200	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.143	0.000	0.857	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.295	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.363	0.500	-0.113	-0.250
predicted_R	0.629	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.629	0.000	0.371	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.571	0.000	0.429	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.114	0.000	-0.114	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.440	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SLG	0.516	0.667	0.484	0.333
predicted_SO	1.057	3.000	3.000	Hitting_SO	1.057	0.000	1.943	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.229	-
predicted_3B	0.114	-
predicted_AB	3.680	-
predicted_AVG	0.208	-
predicted_BB	0.514	-
predicted_H	0.770	-
predicted_HR	0.200	-
predicted_OBP	0.295	-
predicted_R	0.629	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.440	-
predicted_SO	1.057	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.214	-0.015
predicted_3B	0.055	-0.059
predicted_AB	3.585	-0.095
predicted_AVG	0.208	0.000
predicted_BB	0.412	-0.102
predicted_H	0.748	-0.022
predicted_HBP	0.138	-
predicted_HR	0.193	-0.007
predicted_OBP	0.295	0.000
predicted_R	0.510	-0.119
predicted_RBI	0.408	-0.012
predicted_SLG	0.440	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.846	-0.211

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.68), rates preserved: AVG=0.203 HR/AB=0.052

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	0.1765	0.2857	0.4118	0.1765	0.0588	0.1177	0.1177	0.1177
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	8.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	2.000	10.000	0.2162	0.2683	0.4324	0.2162	0.0541	0.0811	0.0541	0.2703
season	0.20	35	-	124.000	33.000	8.000	4.000	5.000	20.000	22.000	18.000	37.000	0.2661	0.3630	0.5161	0.2661	0.0403	0.1613	0.1452	0.2984

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2060
predicted_3B	0.0230
predicted_AB	3.5340
predicted_AVG	0.2083
predicted_BB	0.3570
predicted_H	0.7360
predicted_HBP	0.1380
predicted_HR	0.1890
predicted_OBP	0.2951
predicted_R	0.4460
predicted_RBI	0.4010
predicted_SLG	0.4399
predicted_SO	0.7320

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2290	0.2060	0.2140	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.1140	0.0230	0.0548	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6800	3.5340	3.5851	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2080	0.2083	0.2082	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5140	0.3570	0.4120	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7700	0.7360	0.7479	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1380	0.1380	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2000	0.1890	0.1928	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2950	0.2951	0.2951	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6290	0.4460	0.5101	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.4010	0.4077	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4400	0.4399	0.4399	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0570	0.7320	0.8458	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.266

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260508_NYM@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	682998
playerID	682998
playerName	Corbin Carroll
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	ARI
teamID	1

Ildemaro Vargas (545121) · BATTER · 1B · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 28

All-history rows before 20260509: 28

System season_avg: 0.3390

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3391

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.214	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.214	0.000	-0.214	0.000
predicted_3B	0.036	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.036	0.000	-0.036	0.000
predicted_AB	4.107	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.107	5.000	-0.107	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.267	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.339	0.200	-0.089	0.050
predicted_BB	0.107	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.107	0.000	-0.107	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.080	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.393	1.000	-0.393	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.214	0.000	-0.214	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.282	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.356	0.200	-0.106	0.050
predicted_R	0.679	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.679	0.000	-0.679	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.679	0.000	-0.679	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.343	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.565	0.200	-0.315	0.050
predicted_SO	0.464	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.464	2.000	0.536	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.214	-
predicted_3B	0.036	-
predicted_AB	4.107	-
predicted_AVG	0.267	-
predicted_BB	0.107	-
predicted_H	1.080	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.282	-
predicted_R	0.679	-
predicted_RBI	0.290	-
predicted_SLG	0.343	-
predicted_SO	0.464	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.183	-0.030
predicted_3B	0.017	-0.019
predicted_AB	4.110	0.003
predicted_AVG	0.267	0.000
predicted_BB	0.098	-0.009
predicted_H	1.092	0.012
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.042	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.282	-0.000
predicted_R	0.349	-0.330
predicted_RBI	0.294	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.343	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.488	0.024

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.11), rates preserved: AVG=0.266 HR/AB=0.010

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 4.107

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	0.1905	0.1905	0.2381	0.1905	0.0000	0.0476	0.0000	0.1429
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	13.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	0.3250	0.3571	0.3500	0.3250	0.0000	0.0500	0.0500	0.1000
season	0.20	28	-	115.000	39.000	6.000	1.000	6.000	19.000	19.000	3.000	13.000	0.3391	0.3559	0.5652	0.3391	0.0522	0.1652	0.0261	0.1130

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1670
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	4.1110
predicted_AVG	0.2673
predicted_BB	0.0930
predicted_H	1.0990
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0430
predicted_OBP	0.2819
predicted_R	0.1720
predicted_RBI	0.2960
predicted_SLG	0.3427
predicted_SO	0.5010

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2140	0.1670	0.1835	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0360	0.0070	0.0171	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1070	4.1110	4.1096	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2670	0.2673	0.2672	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1070	0.0930	0.0979	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0800	1.0990	1.0924	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0430	0.0420	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2820	0.2819	0.2819	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6790	0.1720	0.3494	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2900	0.2960	0.2939	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3430	0.3427	0.3428	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4640	0.5010	0.4880	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.339

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260508_NYM@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	545121
playerID	545121
playerName	Ildemaro Vargas
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	ARI
teamID	1

Geraldo Perdomo (672695) · BATTER · SS · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 34

All-history rows before 20260509: 34

System season_avg: 0.2240

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2241

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.147	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.147	0.000	-0.147	0.000
predicted_3B	0.088	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.088	0.000	-0.088	0.000
predicted_AB	3.550	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.412	5.000	0.588	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.145	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.224	0.000	0.026	0.250
predicted_BB	0.647	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.647	0.000	-0.647	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.088	0.000	-0.088	0.000
predicted_H	0.510	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.765	0.000	0.235	1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.297	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.343	0.000	-0.093	0.250
predicted_R	0.412	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.412	0.000	-0.412	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.324	0.000	-0.324	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.176	0.000	-0.176	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.274	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.371	0.000	-0.121	0.250
predicted_SO	0.529	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.529	1.000	1.471	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.147	-
predicted_3B	0.088	-
predicted_AB	3.550	-
predicted_AVG	0.145	-
predicted_BB	0.647	-
predicted_H	0.510	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.297	-
predicted_R	0.412	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.274	-
predicted_SO	0.529	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.232	0.085
predicted_3B	0.043	-0.045
predicted_AB	3.535	-0.015
predicted_AVG	0.145	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.726	0.079
predicted_H	0.511	0.001
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.048	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.297	0.000
predicted_R	0.383	-0.029
predicted_RBI	0.420	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.274	0.000
predicted_SO	0.566	0.037

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.55), rates preserved: AVG=0.144 HR/AB=0.014

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	2.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	0.1111	0.2727	0.2222	0.1111	0.0000	0.1111	0.2222	0.1667
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	8.000	6.000	0.1429	0.3023	0.2857	0.1429	0.0286	0.1429	0.2286	0.1714
season	0.20	34	-	116.000	26.000	5.000	3.000	2.000	11.000	14.000	22.000	18.000	0.2241	0.3429	0.3707	0.2241	0.0172	0.0948	0.1897	0.1552

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2770
predicted_3B	0.0180
predicted_AB	3.5270
predicted_AVG	0.1448
predicted_BB	0.7690
predicted_H	0.5110
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0470
predicted_OBP	0.2971
predicted_R	0.3670
predicted_RBI	0.4200
predicted_SLG	0.2741
predicted_SO	0.5860

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1470	0.2770	0.2315	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0880	0.0180	0.0425	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5500	3.5270	3.5351	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1450	0.1448	0.1449	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6470	0.7690	0.7263	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5100	0.5110	0.5107	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0470	0.0480	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2970	0.2971	0.2971	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4120	0.3670	0.3828	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.4200	0.4200	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2740	0.2741	0.2741	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5290	0.5860	0.5661	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.224

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260508_NYM@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	672695
playerID	672695
playerName	Geraldo Perdomo
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	ARI
teamID	1

Merrill Kelly (518876) · PITCHER · Starter · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 4

All-history rows before 20260509: 4

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	5.250	6.000	-3.250	-4.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.575	4.100	-3.375	-2.900
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	3.500	5.000	-2.500	-4.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 4

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	4	19.000	21.000	29.000	15.000	14.000	6.000	9.9474	2.3158	1.1053	1.5263	0.7895	0.7368	0.3158
last_10	0.35	4	19.000	21.000	29.000	15.000	14.000	6.000	9.9474	2.3158	1.1053	1.5263	0.7895	0.7368	0.3158
season	0.20	4	19.000	21.000	29.000	15.000	14.000	6.000	9.9474	2.3158	1.1053	1.5263	0.7895	0.7368	0.3158

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	3.6840
predicted_ER	5.1580
predicted_ERA	9.9474
predicted_H	7.1230
predicted_HR	1.4740
predicted_IP	4.2000
predicted_SO	3.4390
predicted_WHIP	2.3158

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	3.6840	2.3946	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	5.1580	4.0527	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	9.9474	9.9474	form_only
predicted_H	6.0000	7.1230	6.7299	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	1.4740	1.3081	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	4.2000	3.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	3.4390	2.5854	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	2.3158	2.3158	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	4
Season rows before report date	4
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	4
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	6
R	2
ER	2
BB	0
SO	1
HR	1
BF	12
Pitches	42

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	24
Pitching_ER	6
Pitching_ERA	9.95
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	4
Pitching_H	8
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	4.1
Pitching_Pitches	92
Pitching_R	6
Pitching_SO	5
Pitching_Strikes	58
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_ARI@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	518876
playerID	518876
playerName	Merrill Kelly
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	ARI
teamID	1

Paul Sewald (623149) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 1

All-history rows before 20260509: 1

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.100	0.100	1.000	1.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP
last_5	0.45	1	0.100
last_10	0.35	1	0.100
season	0.20	1	0.100

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.0000
predicted_ER	0.0000
predicted_ERA	0.0000
predicted_H	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	0.1000
predicted_SO	0.0000
predicted_WHIP	0.0000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	0.1000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.0000	0.3500	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	1
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.00
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	5
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	5
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260328_ARI@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	623149
playerID	623149
playerName	Paul Sewald
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ARI
teamID	1

Jonathan Loáisiga (642528) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 2

All-history rows before 20260509: 2

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.050	1.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total H	Total SO	WHIP	H_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	2	2.100	1.000	2.000	0.4286	0.4286	0.8571
last_10	0.35	2	2.100	1.000	2.000	0.4286	0.4286	0.8571
season	0.20	2	2.100	1.000	2.000	0.4286	0.4286	0.8571

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.0000
predicted_ER	0.0000
predicted_ERA	0.0000
predicted_H	0.5710
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.1430
predicted_WHIP	0.4286

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.5710	0.7211	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.1000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.1430	0.7429	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.4286	0.4286	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.00
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260328_ARI@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	642528
playerID	642528
playerName	Jonathan Loáisiga
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ARI
teamID	1

Juan Morillo (666661) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 2

All-history rows before 20260509: 2

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.000	2.000	0.000	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.600	0.200	0.400	0.800
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.500	0.000	1.500	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	2	1.200	2.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	10.8000	2.4000	1.2000	1.2000	1.2000	0.6000	0.6000
last_10	0.35	2	1.200	2.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	10.8000	2.4000	1.2000	1.2000	1.2000	0.6000	0.6000
season	0.20	2	1.200	2.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	10.8000	2.4000	1.2000	1.2000	1.2000	0.6000	0.6000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.8000
predicted_ER	0.8000
predicted_ERA	10.8000
predicted_H	0.8000
predicted_HR	0.4000
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.4000
predicted_WHIP	2.4000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.8000	0.5200	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.8000	0.8700	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	10.8000	10.8000	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8000	0.5200	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.4000	0.2600	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.4000	0.9600	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	2.4000	2.4000	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	12

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	10.80
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	22
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L, BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260328_ARI@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	666661
playerID	666661
playerName	Juan Morillo
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ARI
teamID	1

Kevin Ginkel (656464) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 1

All-history rows before 20260509: 1

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.000	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.000	1.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP
last_5	0.45	1	1.000	1.000	2.000	9.0000	2.0000	1.0000	2.0000
last_10	0.35	1	1.000	1.000	2.000	9.0000	2.0000	1.0000	2.0000
season	0.20	1	1.000	1.000	2.000	9.0000	2.0000	1.0000	2.0000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.0000
predicted_ER	1.0000
predicted_ERA	9.0000
predicted_H	2.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.0000
predicted_WHIP	2.0000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	9.0000	9.0000	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	2.0000	1.6500	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	2.0000	2.0000	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	9.00
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	21
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260327_ARI@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	656464
playerID	656464
playerName	Kevin Ginkel
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ARI
teamID	1

Taylor Clarke (664199) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 1

All-history rows before 20260509: 1

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	4.000	4.000	-2.000	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.100	0.100	0.900	0.900
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	1	0.100	4.000	3.000	1.000	108.0000	9.0000	12.0000	9.0000	3.0000
last_10	0.35	1	0.100	4.000	3.000	1.000	108.0000	9.0000	12.0000	9.0000	3.0000
season	0.20	1	0.100	4.000	3.000	1.000	108.0000	9.0000	12.0000	9.0000	3.0000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.0000
predicted_ER	4.0000
predicted_ERA	108.0000
predicted_H	3.0000
predicted_HR	1.0000
predicted_IP	0.1000
predicted_SO	0.0000
predicted_WHIP	9.0000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	4.0000	3.3000	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	108.0000	108.0000	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	3.0000	2.6500	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.1000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	9.0000	9.0000	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	2
ER	2
BB	0
SO	0
HR	1
BF	5
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	4
Pitching_ERA	108.00
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	4
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260326_ARI@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	664199
playerID	664199
playerName	Taylor Clarke
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ARI
teamID	1

Ryan Thompson (657044) · PITCHER · Reliever · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 2

All-history rows before 20260509: 2

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total SO	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	2	2.000	1.000	0.5000
last_10	0.35	2	2.000	1.000	0.5000
season	0.20	2	2.000	1.000	0.5000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.0000
predicted_ER	0.0000
predicted_ERA	0.0000
predicted_H	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.5000
predicted_WHIP	0.0000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.0000	0.3500	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.5000	0.6750	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.00
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	7
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260327_ARI@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	657044
playerID	657044
playerName	Ryan Thompson
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ARI
teamID	1

Brandon Pfaadt (694297) · PITCHER · Reliever · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 2

All-history rows before 20260509: 2

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	4.000	3.000	-4.000	-3.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.100	4.200	-4.100	-3.200
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	2.500	2.000	-2.500	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	2	10.200	8.000	12.000	3.000	5.000	1.000	6.7500	1.4062	0.7500	1.1250	0.2812	0.4688	0.0938
last_10	0.35	2	10.200	8.000	12.000	3.000	5.000	1.000	6.7500	1.4062	0.7500	1.1250	0.2812	0.4688	0.0938
season	0.20	2	10.200	8.000	12.000	3.000	5.000	1.000	6.7500	1.4062	0.7500	1.1250	0.2812	0.4688	0.0938

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.5000
predicted_ER	4.0000
predicted_ERA	6.7500
predicted_H	6.0000
predicted_HR	0.5000
predicted_IP	5.1000
predicted_SO	2.5000
predicted_WHIP	1.4062

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	1.5000	0.9750	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	4.0000	2.6000	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	6.7500	6.7500	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	6.0000	3.9000	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.5000	0.3250	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	5.1000	3.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	2.5000	1.6250	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4062	1.4062	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	10

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	21
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	6.75
Pitching_Flyouts	4
Pitching_Groundouts	7
Pitching_H	6
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	4.2
Pitching_Pitches	79
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	48
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260405_ATL@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	694297
playerID	694297
playerName	Brandon Pfaadt
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	ARI
teamID	1

20260509_NYY@MIL

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "confidence": 0.51, "home_win_probability": 0.51, "away_win_probability": 0.49, "predicted_score_text": "NYY 4 - 5 MIL", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to final winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "predicted_score_text": "NYY 3 - 5 MIL", "confidence": 0.51, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score", "final_prediction_synced": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "NYY 3 - 5 MIL", "winner": "MIL"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "NYY 4 - 5 MIL", "winner": "MIL"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 1, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 1, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"}}

Away Team: NYY

Ben Rice (700250) · BATTER · DH · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 30

All-history rows before 20260509: 30

System season_avg: 0.3240

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3241

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.300	0.000	-0.300	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.740	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.600	4.000	1.400	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.394	0.200	0.200	Hitting_AVG	0.324	0.000	-0.124	0.200
predicted_BB	0.733	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.733	0.000	-0.733	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.470	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.167	0.000	-0.167	1.000
predicted_HR	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.367	0.000	-0.367	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.459	0.200	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.439	0.000	-0.239	0.200
predicted_R	0.933	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.933	0.000	0.067	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.860	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.833	0.000	-0.833	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.785	0.200	0.200	Hitting_SLG	0.713	0.000	-0.513	0.200
predicted_SO	1.067	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.067	2.000	-0.067	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.300	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.740	-
predicted_AVG	0.394	-
predicted_BB	0.733	-
predicted_H	1.470	-
predicted_HR	0.400	-
predicted_OBP	0.459	-
predicted_R	0.933	-
predicted_RBI	0.860	-
predicted_SLG	0.785	-
predicted_SO	1.067	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.270	-0.030
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.695	-0.046
predicted_AVG	0.394	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.561	-0.172
predicted_H	1.454	-0.016
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.395	-0.005
predicted_OBP	0.459	0.000
predicted_R	0.887	-0.046
predicted_RBI	0.848	-0.012
predicted_SLG	0.785	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.826	-0.241

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.74), rates preserved: AVG=0.389 HR/AB=0.106

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	2.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	2.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	8.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	0.4444	0.5000	0.8333	0.4444	0.1111	0.2222	0.1111	0.1667
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	14.000	3.000	4.000	9.000	9.000	4.000	6.000	0.3684	0.4186	0.7632	0.3684	0.1053	0.2368	0.1053	0.1579
season	0.20	30	-	108.000	35.000	9.000	11.000	25.000	28.000	22.000	32.000	0.3241	0.4394	0.7130	0.3241	0.1018	0.2315	0.2037	0.2963

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2540
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.6700
predicted_AVG	0.3937
predicted_BB	0.4680
predicted_H	1.4450
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.3930
predicted_OBP	0.4594
predicted_R	0.8620
predicted_RBI	0.8410
predicted_SLG	0.7847
predicted_SO	0.6960

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3000	0.2540	0.2701	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7400	3.6700	3.6945	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3940	0.3937	0.3938	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7330	0.4680	0.5608	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.4700	1.4450	1.4537	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.4000	0.3930	0.3954	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4590	0.4594	0.4593	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.9330	0.8620	0.8869	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.8600	0.8410	0.8477	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.7850	0.7847	0.7848	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0670	0.6960	0.8258	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.324

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260508_NYY@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	700250
playerID	700250
playerName	Ben Rice
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	NYY
teamID	19

Jazz Chisholm Jr. (665862) · BATTER · 2B · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 36

All-history rows before 20260509: 36

System season_avg: 0.2060

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2059

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.139	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.139	0.000	-0.139	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.778	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.778	4.000	0.222	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.166	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.206	0.000	-0.206	0.000
predicted_BB	0.417	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.417	0.000	-0.417	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_H	0.590	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.778	0.000	-0.778	0.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.227	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.288	0.000	-0.288	0.000
predicted_R	0.472	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.472	0.000	-0.472	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.361	0.000	-0.361	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.278	0.000	-0.278	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.331	0.000	-0.331	0.000
predicted_SO	1.139	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.139	2.000	-0.139	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.139	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.778	-
predicted_AVG	0.166	-
predicted_BB	0.417	-
predicted_H	0.590	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.227	-
predicted_R	0.472	-
predicted_RBI	0.250	-
predicted_SLG	0.286	-
predicted_SO	1.139	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.067	-0.072
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.825	0.047
predicted_AVG	0.166	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.352	-0.065
predicted_H	0.621	0.031
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.140	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.227	-0.000
predicted_R	0.491	0.020
predicted_RBI	0.263	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.286	0.000
predicted_SO	1.101	-0.038

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.83), rates preserved: AVG=0.162 HR/AB=0.037

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	0.1500	0.1905	0.3000	0.1500	0.0500	0.0500	0.0500	0.3000
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	6.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	4.000	9.000	0.1622	0.2381	0.2432	0.1622	0.0270	0.0811	0.1081	0.2432
season	0.20	36	-	136.000	28.000	5.000	4.000	13.000	17.000	15.000	41.000	0.2059	0.2876	0.3309	0.2059	0.0294	0.0956	0.1103	0.3015

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0280
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.8510
predicted_AVG	0.1655
predicted_BB	0.3170
predicted_H	0.6370
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.1460
predicted_OBP	0.2266
predicted_R	0.5020
predicted_RBI	0.2700
predicted_SLG	0.2863
predicted_SO	1.0800

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1390	0.0280	0.0668	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7780	3.8510	3.8255	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1660	0.1655	0.1657	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4170	0.3170	0.3520	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5900	0.6370	0.6206	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1460	0.1404	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2270	0.2266	0.2267	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4720	0.5020	0.4915	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2500	0.2700	0.2630	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2860	0.2863	0.2862	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1390	1.0800	1.1007	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.206

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260508_NYY@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	665862
playerID	665862
playerName	Jazz Chisholm Jr.
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	NYY
teamID	19

Aaron Judge (592450) · BATTER · RF · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 39

All-history rows before 20260509: 39

System season_avg: 0.2700

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2695

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.154	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.740	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.615	4.000	-0.615	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.299	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.270	0.250	0.064	0.083
predicted_BB	0.718	2.000	2.000	Hitting_BB	0.718	0.000	1.282	2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.051	0.000	-0.051	0.000
predicted_H	1.120	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.974	1.000	0.026	0.000
predicted_HR	0.390	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.385	0.000	0.615	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.391	0.600	0.600	Hitting_OBP	0.398	0.250	0.202	0.350
predicted_R	0.872	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.872	0.000	0.128	1.000
predicted_RBI	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.744	0.000	0.256	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.128	0.000	-0.128	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.649	1.333	1.333	Hitting_SLG	0.631	0.250	0.702	1.083
predicted_SO	1.256	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.256	2.000	-0.256	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.154	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.740	-
predicted_AVG	0.299	-
predicted_BB	0.718	-
predicted_H	1.120	-
predicted_HR	0.390	-
predicted_OBP	0.391	-
predicted_R	0.872	-
predicted_RBI	1.000	-
predicted_SLG	0.649	-
predicted_SO	1.256	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.155	0.001
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.813	0.073
predicted_AVG	0.299	0.000
predicted_BB	0.625	-0.093
predicted_H	1.142	0.022
predicted_HBP	0.011	-
predicted_HR	0.395	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.391	-0.000
predicted_R	0.905	0.033
predicted_RBI	1.022	0.022
predicted_SLG	0.649	0.000
predicted_SO	1.354	0.098

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.81), rates preserved: AVG=0.299 HR/AB=0.103

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	2.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	4.000	2.000	7.000	0.3000	0.3636	0.6500	0.3000	0.1000	0.3000	0.1000	0.3500
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	12.000	1.000	4.000	10.000	11.000	7.000	15.000	0.3158	0.4222	0.6579	0.3158	0.1053	0.2632	0.1842	0.3947
season	0.20	39	-	141.000	38.000	6.000	15.000	29.000	34.000	28.000	49.000	0.2695	0.3977	0.6312	0.2695	0.1064	0.2057	0.1986	0.3475

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1550
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.8530
predicted_AVG	0.2994
predicted_BB	0.5750
predicted_H	1.1540
predicted_HBP	0.0110
predicted_HR	0.3970
predicted_OBP	0.3909
predicted_R	0.9230
predicted_RBI	1.0340
predicted_SLG	0.6490
predicted_SO	1.4070

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1540	0.1550	0.1547	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7400	3.8530	3.8135	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2990	0.2994	0.2993	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7180	0.5750	0.6250	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1200	1.1540	1.1421	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0110	0.0110	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3900	0.3970	0.3945	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3910	0.3909	0.3909	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8720	0.9230	0.9052	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	1.0000	1.0340	1.0221	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6490	0.6490	0.6490	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2560	1.4070	1.3542	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	2
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.27

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260508_NYY@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	592450
playerID	592450
playerName	Aaron Judge
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	NYY
teamID	19

Paul Goldschmidt (502671) · BATTER · 1B · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 13

All-history rows before 20260509: 13

System season_avg: 0.2000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.308	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.308	0.000	-0.308	0.000
predicted_3B	0.077	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.077	1.000	-0.077	-1.000
predicted_AB	3.810	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.462	3.000	0.538	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.210	0.750	0.750	Hitting_AVG	0.200	0.333	0.550	0.417
predicted_BB	0.462	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.462	2.000	0.538	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.800	3.000	3.000	Hitting_H	0.692	1.000	2.308	2.000
predicted_HR	0.170	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.154	0.000	0.846	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.317	0.800	0.800	Hitting_OBP	0.308	0.600	0.492	0.200
predicted_R	0.769	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.769	2.000	0.231	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.260	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	0.385	0.000	1.615	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.468	1.500	1.500	Hitting_SLG	0.467	1.000	1.033	0.500
predicted_SO	1.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.308	-
predicted_3B	0.077	-
predicted_AB	3.810	-
predicted_AVG	0.210	-
predicted_BB	0.462	-
predicted_H	0.800	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.317	-
predicted_R	0.769	-
predicted_RBI	0.260	-
predicted_SLG	0.468	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.218	-0.090
predicted_3B	0.118	0.041
predicted_AB	3.632	-0.178
predicted_AVG	0.210	0.000
predicted_BB	0.510	0.048
predicted_H	0.763	-0.037
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-0.010
predicted_OBP	0.317	-0.000
predicted_R	0.843	0.074
predicted_RBI	0.246	-0.014
predicted_SLG	0.468	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	0.000

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.81), rates preserved: AVG=0.200 HR/AB=0.042

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 3.810

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	5.000	0.2222	0.3333	0.5000	0.2222	0.0556	0.0556	0.1667	0.2778
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	7.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	8.000	5.000	10.000	0.2000	0.3000	0.4286	0.2000	0.0286	0.0571	0.1429	0.2857
season	0.20	13	-	45.000	9.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	10.000	6.000	13.000	0.2000	0.3077	0.4667	0.2000	0.0444	0.1111	0.1333	0.2889

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1690
predicted_3B	0.1400
predicted_AB	3.5370
predicted_AVG	0.2100
predicted_BB	0.5360
predicted_H	0.7430
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.1550
predicted_OBP	0.3165
predicted_R	0.8820
predicted_RBI	0.2380
predicted_SLG	0.4683
predicted_SO	1.0000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3080	0.1690	0.2177	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0770	0.1400	0.1180	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8100	3.5370	3.6325	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2100	0.2100	0.2100	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4620	0.5360	0.5101	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8000	0.7430	0.7630	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.1550	0.1603	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3170	0.3165	0.3167	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7690	0.8820	0.8425	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2600	0.2380	0.2457	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4680	0.4683	0.4682	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	3
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.2

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	1
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260507_TEX@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	502671
playerID	502671
playerName	Paul Goldschmidt
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	NYY
teamID	19

Amed Rosario (642708) · BATTER · 3B · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 18

All-history rows before 20260509: 18

System season_avg: 0.2710

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2712

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.056	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_AB	3.278	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.278	4.000	0.722	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.277	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.271	0.250	-0.021	0.000
predicted_BB	0.278	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.278	0.000	-0.278	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.890	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.889	1.000	0.111	0.000
predicted_HR	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.316	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.323	0.250	-0.073	0.000
predicted_R	0.444	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.444	1.000	-0.444	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.860	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.722	0.000	-0.722	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.471	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.508	0.250	-0.258	0.000
predicted_SO	0.667	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.667	1.000	1.333	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.056	-
predicted_AB	3.278	-
predicted_AVG	0.277	-
predicted_BB	0.278	-
predicted_H	0.890	-
predicted_HR	0.200	-
predicted_OBP	0.316	-
predicted_R	0.444	-
predicted_RBI	0.860	-
predicted_SLG	0.471	-
predicted_SO	0.667	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.027	-0.029
predicted_AB	3.283	0.005
predicted_AVG	0.277	0.000
predicted_BB	0.260	-0.018
predicted_H	0.904	0.014
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.203	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.316	-0.000
predicted_R	0.525	0.081
predicted_RBI	0.871	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.471	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.857	0.190

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.28), rates preserved: AVG=0.275 HR/AB=0.062

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, BvP AVG=0.333)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	0.3125	0.3333	0.5000	0.3125	0.0625	0.3125	0.0625	0.3750
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	8.000	0.000	2.000	8.000	6.000	3.000	8.000	0.2353	0.2895	0.4118	0.2353	0.0588	0.2353	0.0882	0.2353
season	0.20	18	-	59.000	16.000	1.000	4.000	13.000	8.000	5.000	12.000	0.2712	0.3231	0.5085	0.2712	0.0678	0.2203	0.0848	0.2034

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0110
predicted_AB	3.2860
predicted_AVG	0.2772
predicted_BB	0.2500
predicted_H	0.9110
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.2050
predicted_OBP	0.3159
predicted_R	0.5690
predicted_RBI	0.8770
predicted_SLG	0.4708
predicted_SO	0.9590

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0560	0.0110	0.0267	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2780	3.2860	3.2832	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2770	0.2772	0.2771	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2780	0.2500	0.2598	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8900	0.9110	0.9037	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2000	0.2050	0.2032	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3160	0.3159	0.3159	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4440	0.5690	0.5252	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.8600	0.8770	0.8711	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4710	0.4708	0.4709	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6670	0.9590	0.8568	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.271

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B-RF
gameID	20260507_TEX@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	642708
playerID	642708
playerName	Amed Rosario
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	NYY
teamID	19

Cody Bellinger (641355) · BATTER · LF · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 37

All-history rows before 20260509: 37

System season_avg: 0.2870

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2868

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.270	0.000	-0.270	0.000
predicted_3B	0.081	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.081	0.000	-0.081	0.000
predicted_AB	3.750	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.676	4.000	1.324	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.380	0.200	0.200	Hitting_AVG	0.287	0.000	-0.087	0.200
predicted_BB	0.622	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.622	0.000	-0.622	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_H	1.420	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.054	0.000	-0.054	1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.135	0.000	-0.135	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.448	0.200	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.383	0.000	-0.183	0.200
predicted_R	0.649	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.649	0.000	-0.649	0.000
predicted_RBI	1.380	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.703	0.000	-0.703	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.108	0.000	-0.108	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.732	0.200	0.200	Hitting_SLG	0.515	0.000	-0.315	0.200
predicted_SO	0.568	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.568	1.000	1.432	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.270	-
predicted_3B	0.081	-
predicted_AB	3.750	-
predicted_AVG	0.380	-
predicted_BB	0.622	-
predicted_H	1.420	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.448	-
predicted_R	0.649	-
predicted_RBI	1.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.732	-
predicted_SO	0.568	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.404	0.134
predicted_3B	0.203	0.122
predicted_AB	3.708	-0.042
predicted_AVG	0.380	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.589	-0.033
predicted_H	1.406	-0.014
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.097	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.448	0.000
predicted_R	0.624	-0.025
predicted_RBI	1.362	-0.018
predicted_SLG	0.732	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.443	-0.125

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.75), rates preserved: AVG=0.375 HR/AB=0.026

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	2.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	2.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	7.000	2.000	2.000	0.000	8.000	3.000	3.000	1.000	0.3889	0.4545	0.7222	0.3889	0.0000	0.4444	0.1667	0.0556
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	16.000	7.000	2.000	2.000	14.000	6.000	5.000	5.000	0.4211	0.4773	0.8684	0.4210	0.0526	0.3684	0.1316	0.1316
season	0.20	37	-	136.000	39.000	10.000	3.000	5.000	26.000	24.000	23.000	21.000	0.2868	0.3827	0.5147	0.2868	0.0368	0.1912	0.1691	0.1544

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.4760
predicted_3B	0.2680
predicted_AB	3.6850
predicted_AVG	0.3798
predicted_BB	0.5710
predicted_H	1.3990
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0950
predicted_OBP	0.4481
predicted_R	0.6100
predicted_RBI	1.3530
predicted_SLG	0.7319
predicted_SO	0.3760

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2700	0.4760	0.4039	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0810	0.2680	0.2026	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7500	3.6850	3.7078	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3800	0.3798	0.3799	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6220	0.5710	0.5888	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.4200	1.3990	1.4063	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.0950	0.0968	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4480	0.4481	0.4481	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6490	0.6100	0.6237	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	1.3800	1.3530	1.3624	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.7320	0.7319	0.7319	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5680	0.3760	0.4432	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.287

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260508_NYY@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	641355
playerID	641355
playerName	Cody Bellinger
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	NYY
teamID	19

José Caballero (676609) · BATTER · SS · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 37

All-history rows before 20260509: 37

System season_avg: 0.2660

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2656

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.162	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.162	0.000	-0.162	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.459	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.459	3.000	-0.459	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.281	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.266	0.667	-0.266	-0.667
predicted_BB	0.162	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.162	0.000	0.838	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.108	0.000	-0.108	0.000
predicted_H	0.900	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.919	2.000	-0.919	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.108	0.000	-0.108	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.355	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.319	0.667	-0.069	-0.417
predicted_R	0.459	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.459	0.000	-0.459	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.351	0.000	-0.351	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.351	0.000	-0.351	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.381	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.406	0.667	-0.406	-0.667
predicted_SO	0.757	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.757	1.000	0.243	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.162	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.459	-
predicted_AVG	0.281	-
predicted_BB	0.162	-
predicted_H	0.900	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.355	-
predicted_R	0.459	-
predicted_RBI	0.230	-
predicted_SLG	0.381	-
predicted_SO	0.757	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.159	-0.003
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.324	-0.135
predicted_AVG	0.281	0.000
predicted_BB	0.182	0.020
predicted_H	0.910	0.010
predicted_HBP	0.183	-
predicted_HR	0.057	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.355	0.000
predicted_R	0.511	0.052
predicted_RBI	0.229	-0.001
predicted_SLG	0.381	0.000
predicted_SO	0.509	-0.248

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.46), rates preserved: AVG=0.263 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	0.3125	0.3889	0.3750	0.3125	0.0000	0.0625	0.0625	0.0625
last_10	0.35	10	-	32.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	2.000	4.000	0.2500	0.3333	0.3750	0.2500	0.0312	0.0625	0.0625	0.1250
season	0.20	37	-	128.000	34.000	6.000	4.000	13.000	17.000	6.000	28.000	0.2656	0.3188	0.4062	0.2656	0.0312	0.1016	0.0469	0.2188

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1580
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.2520
predicted_AVG	0.2812
predicted_BB	0.1930
predicted_H	0.9150
predicted_HBP	0.1830
predicted_HR	0.0560
predicted_OBP	0.3554
predicted_R	0.5390
predicted_RBI	0.2290
predicted_SLG	0.3812
predicted_SO	0.3760

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1620	0.1580	0.1594	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4590	3.2520	3.3244	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2810	0.2812	0.2811	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1620	0.1930	0.1822	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9000	0.9150	0.9098	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1830	0.1830	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0560	0.0574	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3550	0.3554	0.3553	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4590	0.5390	0.5110	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2300	0.2290	0.2293	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3810	0.3812	0.3811	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7570	0.3760	0.5093	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.266

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260508_NYY@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	676609
playerID	676609
playerName	José Caballero
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	NYY
teamID	19

Spencer Jones (682987) · BATTER · CF · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 1

All-history rows before 20260509: 1

System season_avg: 0.0000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.0000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.500	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.000	2.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_BB	1.250	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.333	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.333	-0.083	-0.083
predicted_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SO	2.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	2.000	2.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.000	-
predicted_BB	1.250	-
predicted_H	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.333	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.000	-
predicted_SLG	0.000	-
predicted_SO	2.500	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.175	-0.325
predicted_AVG	0.000	0.000
predicted_BB	1.087	-0.163
predicted_H	0.000	0.000
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.333	0.000
predicted_R	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.000	0.000
predicted_SO	2.175	-0.325

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.000 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	3.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	3.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	-2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total BB	Total SO	OBP	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	1	-	2.000	1.000	2.000	0.3333	0.5000	1.0000
last_10	0.35	1	-	2.000	1.000	2.000	0.3333	0.5000	1.0000
season	0.20	1	-	2.000	1.000	2.000	0.3333	0.5000	1.0000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.0000
predicted_AVG	0.0000
predicted_BB	1.0000
predicted_H	0.0000
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.3333
predicted_R	0.0000
predicted_RBI	0.0000
predicted_SLG	0.0000
predicted_SO	2.0000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.5000	2.0000	2.1750	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	1.2500	1.0000	1.0875	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3330	0.3333	0.3332	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.5000	2.0000	2.1750	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.0

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260508_NYY@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	682987
playerID	682987
playerName	Spencer Jones
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	NYY
teamID	19

Austin Wells (669224) · BATTER · C · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 29

All-history rows before 20260509: 29

System season_avg: 0.1930

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1932

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.034	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.034	0.000	-0.034	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.034	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.034	2.000	0.966	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.175	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.193	0.000	0.057	0.250
predicted_BB	0.621	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.621	0.000	-0.621	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.450	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.586	0.000	0.414	1.000
predicted_HR	0.070	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.103	0.000	0.897	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.310	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.327	0.000	-0.077	0.250
predicted_R	0.345	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.345	0.000	0.655	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.110	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.172	0.000	0.828	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.264	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SLG	0.307	0.000	0.693	1.000
predicted_SO	0.793	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.793	2.000	-0.793	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.034	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.034	-
predicted_AVG	0.175	-
predicted_BB	0.621	-
predicted_H	0.450	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.310	-
predicted_R	0.345	-
predicted_RBI	0.110	-
predicted_SLG	0.264	-
predicted_SO	0.793	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.016	-0.018
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.062	0.028
predicted_AVG	0.175	0.000
predicted_BB	0.611	-0.010
predicted_H	0.508	0.058
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.082	0.012
predicted_OBP	0.310	0.000
predicted_R	0.478	0.133
predicted_RBI	0.127	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.264	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.021	0.228

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.06), rates preserved: AVG=0.166 HR/AB=0.027

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	7.000	0.1333	0.2778	0.1333	0.1333	0.0000	0.0000	0.2000	0.4667
last_10	0.35	10	-	32.000	7.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	6.000	6.000	10.000	0.2188	0.3421	0.4062	0.2188	0.0625	0.0938	0.1875	0.3125
season	0.20	29	-	88.000	17.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	10.000	18.000	23.000	0.1932	0.3271	0.3068	0.1932	0.0341	0.0568	0.2046	0.2614

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0070
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.0770
predicted_AVG	0.1752
predicted_BB	0.6050
predicted_H	0.5390
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0880
predicted_OBP	0.3102
predicted_R	0.5490
predicted_RBI	0.1360
predicted_SLG	0.2635
predicted_SO	1.1440

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0340	0.0070	0.0164	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0340	3.0770	3.0619	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1750	0.1752	0.1751	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6210	0.6050	0.6106	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4500	0.5390	0.5079	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0880	0.0817	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3100	0.3102	0.3101	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3450	0.5490	0.4776	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1100	0.1360	0.1269	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2640	0.2635	0.2637	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7930	1.1440	1.0212	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.193

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260508_NYY@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	669224
playerID	669224
playerName	Austin Wells
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	NYY
teamID	19

Cam Schlittler (693645) · PITCHER · Starter · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 8

All-history rows before 20260509: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_IP	3.200	3.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.800	5.200	-2.600	-2.000
predicted_SO	7.000	7.000	-	Pitching_SO	6.625	4.000	0.375	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 3.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	30.200	5.000	24.000	9.000	31.000	1.000	1.4674	1.0761	0.1630	0.7826	0.2935	1.0109	0.0326
last_10	0.35	8	47.100	8.000	32.000	9.000	53.000	1.000	1.5211	0.8662	0.1690	0.6761	0.1901	1.1197	0.0211
season	0.20	8	47.100	8.000	32.000	9.000	53.000	1.000	1.5211	0.8662	0.1690	0.6761	0.1901	1.1197	0.0211

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.4200
predicted_ER	0.9980
predicted_ERA	1.4969
predicted_H	4.3440
predicted_HR	0.1580
predicted_IP	6.0000
predicted_SO	6.4240
predicted_WHIP	0.9607

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	1.4200	1.9730	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.9980	0.9987	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.4969	1.4969	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	4.3440	3.5236	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1580	0.1027	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	3.2000	6.0000	5.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	7.0000	6.4240	6.6256	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9607	0.9607	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	3.2
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	3
SO	7
HR	0
BF	17
Pitches	81

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	25
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	1.52
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	7
Pitching_H	7
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.2
Pitching_Pitches	95
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	4
Pitching_Strikes	59
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_BAL@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	693645
playerID	693645
playerName	Cam Schlittler
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	NYY
teamID	19

David Bednar (670280) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 15

All-history rows before 20260509: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.400	1.000	-0.400	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.960	1.200	0.140	-0.100
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.200	2.000	0.800	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	2.000	6.000	0.000	5.000	3.1765	1.0588	0.3529	1.0588	0.0000	0.8823
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	4.000	11.000	2.000	13.000	3.6000	1.3000	0.4000	1.1000	0.2000	1.3000
season	0.20	15	15.100	6.000	18.000	5.000	18.000	3.5217	1.5000	0.3913	1.1739	0.3261	1.1739

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1350
predicted_ER	0.3770
predicted_ERA	3.3938
predicted_H	1.0960
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0870
predicted_WHIP	1.2315

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1350	0.0878	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3770	0.2451	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3938	3.3938	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.0960	1.0624	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.0000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.0870	1.4065	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2315	1.2315	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	3.52
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	3
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.2
Pitching_Pitches	26
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	18
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_TEX@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	670280
playerID	670280
playerName	David Bednar
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYY
teamID	19

Brent Headrick (687396) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 20

All-history rows before 20260509: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.150	0.000	1.850	2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.820	1.100	0.180	-0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.050	1.000	-0.050	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.200	0.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	0.0000	0.6000	0.0000	0.3000	0.3000	1.0500
last_10	0.35	10	11.100	1.000	7.000	3.000	9.000	0.7941	0.8824	0.0882	0.6177	0.2647	0.7941
season	0.20	20	19.200	3.000	17.000	7.000	21.000	1.3729	1.2203	0.1525	0.8644	0.3559	1.0678

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3440
predicted_ER	0.0710
predicted_ERA	0.5525
predicted_H	0.6030
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1090
predicted_WHIP	0.8229

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3440	0.5736	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.0710	0.7461	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.5525	0.5525	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.6030	1.0919	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1090	1.0709	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.8229	0.8229	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	2
ER	2
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	7
Pitches	26

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.37
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_TEX@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	687396
playerID	687396
playerName	Brent Headrick
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYY
teamID	19

Fernando Cruz (518585) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 17

All-history rows before 20260509: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.235	0.000	-0.235
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.529	1.000	0.471
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.176	1.000	-0.176

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	0.000	4.000	2.000	5.000	0.000	0.0000	1.2857	0.0000	0.8571	0.4286	1.0714	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.100	3.000	10.000	6.000	12.000	2.000	3.2400	1.9200	0.3600	1.2000	0.7200	1.4400	0.2400
season	0.20	17	13.200	4.000	11.000	10.000	20.000	2.000	2.6341	1.5366	0.2927	0.8049	0.7317	1.4634	0.1463

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4830
predicted_ER	0.1510
predicted_ERA	1.6608
predicted_H	0.7890
predicted_HR	0.0930
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	1.0440
predicted_WHIP	1.5579

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4830	0.3140	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1510	0.0982	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.6608	1.6608	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.7890	0.8629	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0930	0.0605	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0440	1.0286	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5579	1.5579	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.63
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	26
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_TEX@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	518585
playerID	518585
playerName	Fernando Cruz
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYY
teamID	19

Tim Hill (657612) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 17

All-history rows before 20260509: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.776	1.200	0.224	-0.200
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.412	1.000	0.588	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	0.000	5.000	0.000	3.000	0.000	0.0000	1.2500	0.0000	1.2500	0.0000	0.7500	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	2.000	9.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	1.8621	1.1379	0.2069	0.9310	0.2069	0.4138	0.1035
season	0.20	17	16.000	2.000	11.000	2.000	7.000	1.000	1.1250	0.8125	0.1250	0.6875	0.1250	0.4375	0.0625

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.0830
predicted_ER	0.0830
predicted_ERA	0.8767
predicted_H	0.8720
predicted_HR	0.0410
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.4840
predicted_WHIP	1.1233

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0830	0.0540	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.0830	0.0540	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.8767	0.8767	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8720	0.5668	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0410	0.0267	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.4840	0.6646	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1233	1.1233	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.13
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.2
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_TEX@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	657612
playerID	657612
playerName	Tim Hill
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYY
teamID	19

Camilo Doval (666808) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 16

All-history rows before 20260509: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.562	0.000	1.438	2.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.744	1.000	-0.544	-0.800
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	2.000	4.000	1.000	7.000	1.000	3.8571	1.0714	0.4286	0.8571	0.2143	1.5000	0.2143
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	5.000	8.000	2.000	10.000	3.000	4.6552	1.0345	0.5172	0.8276	0.2069	1.0345	0.3103
season	0.20	16	14.000	9.000	13.000	3.000	16.000	3.000	5.7857	1.1429	0.6429	0.9286	0.2143	1.1429	0.2143

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2120
predicted_ER	0.5020
predicted_ERA	4.5222
predicted_H	0.8610
predicted_HR	0.2480
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.2660
predicted_WHIP	1.0728

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2120	0.1378	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.5020	1.0263	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.5222	4.5222	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.8610	1.2596	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.2480	0.5112	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.2660	0.8229	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0728	1.0728	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	2
R	2
ER	2
BB	0
SO	0
HR	1
BF	4
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.79
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	23
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	15
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_TEX@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	666808
playerID	666808
playerName	Camilo Doval
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYY
teamID	19

Home Team: MIL

Jackson Chourio (694192) · BATTER · LF · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 3

All-history rows before 20260509: 3

System season_avg: 0.5380

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.5385

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.760	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.333	4.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.538	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.538	0.250	-0.288	0.000
predicted_BB	0.333	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	2.570	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	2.333	1.000	-1.333	0.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.571	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.571	0.250	-0.171	0.150
predicted_R	0.333	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.730	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.667	1.000	-0.667	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.769	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.769	0.250	-0.269	0.250
predicted_SO	1.000	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	2.000	1.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	1.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.760	-
predicted_AVG	0.538	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	2.570	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.571	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.730	-
predicted_SLG	0.769	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	1.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.482	-0.277
predicted_AVG	0.538	0.000
predicted_BB	0.333	0.000
predicted_H	2.416	-0.154
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.571	0.000
predicted_R	0.333	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.689	-0.041
predicted_SLG	0.769	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	0.000

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 5 (raw=4.76), rates preserved: AVG=0.508 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	5.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	3.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	3.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	-2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 3

Reference playing time: 4.760

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	3	-	13.000	7.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	0.5385	0.5714	0.7692	0.5385	0.1538	0.0769	0.2308
last_10	0.35	3	-	13.000	7.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	0.5385	0.5714	0.7692	0.5385	0.1538	0.0769	0.2308
season	0.20	3	-	13.000	7.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	0.5385	0.5714	0.7692	0.5385	0.1538	0.0769	0.2308

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	1.0000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.3330
predicted_AVG	0.5385
predicted_BB	0.3330
predicted_H	2.3330
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.5714
predicted_R	0.3330
predicted_RBI	0.6670
predicted_SLG	0.7692
predicted_SO	1.0000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.7600	4.3330	4.4825	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.5380	0.5385	0.5383	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.3330	0.3330	model_form_blend
predicted_H	2.5700	2.3330	2.4160	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.5710	0.5714	0.5713	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.3330	0.3330	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7300	0.6670	0.6891	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.7690	0.7692	0.7691	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	3
Season rows before report date	3
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	3
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.538

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF-LF
gameID	20260508_NYY@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	694192
playerID	694192
playerName	Jackson Chourio
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	MIL
teamID	16

William Contreras (661388) · BATTER · C · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 33

All-history rows before 20260509: 33

System season_avg: 0.2870

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2868

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.212	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.212	0.000	-0.212	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.290	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.121	4.000	-0.121	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.238	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.287	0.250	0.213	0.250
predicted_BB	0.424	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.424	0.000	0.576	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.020	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	1.182	1.000	0.818	1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.091	0.000	0.909	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.306	0.600	0.600	Hitting_OBP	0.358	0.250	0.242	0.350
predicted_R	0.636	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.636	0.000	0.364	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.600	3.000	3.000	Hitting_RBI	0.727	1.000	2.273	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.295	1.250	1.250	Hitting_SLG	0.404	0.250	0.846	1.000
predicted_SO	0.515	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.515	1.000	-0.515	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.212	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.290	-
predicted_AVG	0.238	-
predicted_BB	0.424	-
predicted_H	1.020	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.306	-
predicted_R	0.636	-
predicted_RBI	0.600	-
predicted_SLG	0.295	-
predicted_SO	0.515	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-0.087
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.221	-0.069
predicted_AVG	0.238	0.000
predicted_BB	0.330	-0.094
predicted_H	1.005	-0.015
predicted_HBP	0.131	-
predicted_HR	0.052	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.306	0.000
predicted_R	0.627	-0.009
predicted_RBI	0.591	-0.009
predicted_SLG	0.295	0.000
predicted_SO	0.514	-0.001

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.29), rates preserved: AVG=0.234 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	3.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 4.290

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	0.1429	0.2174	0.1429	0.1429	0.0000	0.0476	0.0476	0.1429
last_10	0.35	10	-	42.000	14.000	1.000	1.000	10.000	9.000	3.000	4.000	0.3333	0.3913	0.4286	0.3333	0.0238	0.2381	0.0714	0.0952
season	0.20	33	-	136.000	39.000	7.000	3.000	24.000	21.000	14.000	17.000	0.2868	0.3576	0.4044	0.2868	0.0221	0.1765	0.1029	0.1250

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0780
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.1840
predicted_AVG	0.2383
predicted_BB	0.2800
predicted_H	0.9970
predicted_HBP	0.1310
predicted_HR	0.0530
predicted_OBP	0.3063
predicted_R	0.6220
predicted_RBI	0.5860
predicted_SLG	0.2952
predicted_SO	0.5130

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2120	0.0780	0.1249	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.2900	4.1840	4.2211	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2380	0.2383	0.2382	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4240	0.2800	0.3304	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0200	0.9970	1.0050	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1310	0.1310	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0530	0.0519	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3060	0.3063	0.3062	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6360	0.6220	0.6269	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6000	0.5860	0.5909	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2950	0.2952	0.2951	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5150	0.5130	0.5137	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	3
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.287

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260508_NYY@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	661388
playerID	661388
playerName	William Contreras
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	MIL
teamID	16

Brice Turang (668930) · BATTER · 2B · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 33

All-history rows before 20260509: 33

System season_avg: 0.2950

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2951

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.242	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.242	0.000	-0.242	0.000
predicted_3B	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_AB	3.850	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.697	4.000	1.303	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.324	0.200	0.200	Hitting_AVG	0.295	0.000	-0.095	0.200
predicted_BB	0.879	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.879	0.000	-0.879	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.061	0.000	-0.061	0.000
predicted_H	1.250	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.091	0.000	-0.091	1.000
predicted_HR	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.152	0.000	-0.152	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.459	0.200	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.428	0.000	-0.228	0.200
predicted_R	0.879	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.879	0.000	-0.879	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.470	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.212	0.000	-0.212	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.493	0.200	0.200	Hitting_SLG	0.500	0.000	-0.300	0.200
predicted_SO	0.970	3.000	3.000	Hitting_SO	0.970	1.000	2.030	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.242	-
predicted_3B	0.030	-
predicted_AB	3.850	-
predicted_AVG	0.324	-
predicted_BB	0.879	-
predicted_H	1.250	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.459	-
predicted_R	0.879	-
predicted_RBI	0.470	-
predicted_SLG	0.493	-
predicted_SO	0.970	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.185	-0.056
predicted_3B	0.014	-0.016
predicted_AB	3.781	-0.069
predicted_AVG	0.324	0.000
predicted_BB	0.919	0.040
predicted_H	1.227	-0.023
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.157	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.459	0.000
predicted_R	0.804	-0.075
predicted_RBI	0.460	-0.010
predicted_SLG	0.493	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.882	-0.088

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.85), rates preserved: AVG=0.319 HR/AB=0.041

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.850

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	4.000	0.3158	0.4583	0.4737	0.3158	0.0526	0.1053	0.2632	0.2105
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	13.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	9.000	9.000	8.000	0.3514	0.4783	0.5135	0.3513	0.0270	0.1081	0.2432	0.2162
season	0.20	33	-	122.000	36.000	8.000	1.000	5.000	22.000	29.000	29.000	32.000	0.2951	0.4276	0.5000	0.2951	0.0410	0.1803	0.2377	0.2623

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1550
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.7440
predicted_AVG	0.3241
predicted_BB	0.9400
predicted_H	1.2140
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1550
predicted_OBP	0.4592
predicted_R	0.7630
predicted_RBI	0.4540
predicted_SLG	0.4929
predicted_SO	0.8350

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2420	0.1550	0.1855	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0300	0.0060	0.0144	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8500	3.7440	3.7811	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3240	0.3241	0.3241	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.8790	0.9400	0.9186	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2500	1.2140	1.2266	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.1550	0.1568	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4590	0.4592	0.4591	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8790	0.7630	0.8036	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4700	0.4540	0.4596	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4930	0.4929	0.4929	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9700	0.8350	0.8822	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.295

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260508_NYY@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	668930
playerID	668930
playerName	Brice Turang
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	MIL
teamID	16

Jake Bauers (641343) · BATTER · 1B · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 29

All-history rows before 20260509: 29

System season_avg: 0.2660

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2661

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.172	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.172	0.000	-0.172	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.820	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.759	3.000	0.241	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.266	0.667	-0.266	-0.667
predicted_BB	0.483	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.483	1.000	-0.483	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.034	0.000	-0.034	0.000
predicted_H	1.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.000	2.000	-1.000	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.172	0.000	-0.172	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.406	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.350	0.750	-0.350	-0.750
predicted_R	0.724	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.724	1.000	-0.724	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.655	1.000	-0.655	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.103	0.000	-0.103	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.372	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.450	0.667	-0.450	-0.667
predicted_SO	0.862	3.000	3.000	Hitting_SO	0.862	0.000	2.138	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.172	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.820	-
predicted_AVG	0.270	-
predicted_BB	0.483	-
predicted_H	1.030	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.406	-
predicted_R	0.724	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.372	-
predicted_SO	0.862	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.231	0.059
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.604	-0.216
predicted_AVG	0.270	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.696	0.213
predicted_H	0.972	-0.058
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.035	-0.005
predicted_OBP	0.406	0.000
predicted_R	0.725	0.001
predicted_RBI	0.397	-0.023
predicted_SLG	0.372	0.000
predicted_SO	0.939	0.077

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.82), rates preserved: AVG=0.255 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.820

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	5.000	0.2500	0.4286	0.3125	0.2500	0.0000	0.0625	0.3125	0.3125
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	11.000	4.000	0.000	5.000	9.000	7.000	10.000	0.2973	0.4091	0.4054	0.2973	0.0000	0.1351	0.1892	0.2703
season	0.20	29	-	109.000	29.000	5.000	5.000	19.000	21.000	14.000	25.000	0.2661	0.3496	0.4495	0.2661	0.0459	0.1743	0.1284	0.2294

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2620
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.4870
predicted_AVG	0.2698
predicted_BB	0.8110
predicted_H	0.9410
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0320
predicted_OBP	0.4060
predicted_R	0.7250
predicted_RBI	0.3850
predicted_SLG	0.3724
predicted_SO	0.9800

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1720	0.2620	0.2305	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8200	3.4870	3.6036	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2700	0.2698	0.2699	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4830	0.8110	0.6962	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0300	0.9410	0.9722	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0320	0.0348	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4060	0.4060	0.4060	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7240	0.7250	0.7247	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.3850	0.3972	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3720	0.3724	0.3723	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8620	0.9800	0.9387	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.266

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	1
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260506_MIL@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	641343
playerID	641343
playerName	Jake Bauers
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	MIL
teamID	16

Luis Rengifo (650859) · BATTER · 3B · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 25

All-history rows before 20260509: 25

System season_avg: 0.1940

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1935

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.320	0.000	-0.320	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.720	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.720	2.000	0.280	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.194	0.000	-0.194	0.000
predicted_BB	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.360	2.000	-0.360	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.600	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.720	0.000	-0.720	0.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.279	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.269	0.500	-0.269	-0.500
predicted_R	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.360	1.000	-0.360	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.430	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.440	0.000	-0.440	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.040	0.000	-0.040	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.218	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.280	0.000	-0.280	0.000
predicted_SO	0.440	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.440	0.000	0.560	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.320	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.720	-
predicted_AVG	0.182	-
predicted_BB	0.360	-
predicted_H	0.600	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.279	-
predicted_R	0.360	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.218	-
predicted_SO	0.440	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.199	-0.121
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.658	-0.062
predicted_AVG	0.182	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.440	0.080
predicted_H	0.638	0.038
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.279	-0.000
predicted_R	0.276	-0.084
predicted_RBI	0.461	0.031
predicted_SLG	0.218	0.000
predicted_SO	0.315	-0.126

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.72), rates preserved: AVG=0.172 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 25

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	0.1667	0.2857	0.1667	0.1667	0.1111	0.1667	0.0556
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	7.000	2.000	6.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	0.1944	0.2750	0.2500	0.1944	0.1667	0.1111	0.0556
season	0.20	25	-	93.000	18.000	8.000	11.000	9.000	9.000	11.000	0.1935	0.2692	0.2796	0.1935	0.1183	0.0968	0.1183

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1330
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.6240
predicted_AVG	0.1818
predicted_BB	0.4830
predicted_H	0.6590
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.2787
predicted_R	0.2310
predicted_RBI	0.4780
predicted_SLG	0.2184
predicted_SO	0.2470

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3200	0.1330	0.1985	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7200	3.6240	3.6576	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1820	0.1818	0.1819	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3600	0.4830	0.4400	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6000	0.6590	0.6383	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2790	0.2787	0.2788	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3600	0.2310	0.2762	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.4780	0.4612	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2180	0.2184	0.2183	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4400	0.2470	0.3145	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	25
Season rows before report date	25
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	25
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.194

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260508_NYY@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	650859
playerID	650859
playerName	Luis Rengifo
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	MIL
teamID	16

Garrett Mitchell (669003) · BATTER · CF · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 26

All-history rows before 20260509: 26

System season_avg: 0.2310

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2308

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.231	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.231	0.000	-0.231	0.000
predicted_3B	0.038	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.038	0.000	-0.038	0.000
predicted_AB	3.500	2.000	2.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	5.000	-1.500	-3.000
predicted_AVG	0.183	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.231	0.000	0.269	0.500
predicted_BB	0.692	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.692	0.000	0.308	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_H	0.590	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.808	0.000	0.192	1.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.038	0.000	-0.038	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.294	0.750	0.750	Hitting_OBP	0.364	0.000	0.386	0.750
predicted_R	0.538	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.538	0.000	0.462	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.808	0.000	-0.808	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.192	0.000	-0.192	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.246	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.352	0.000	0.148	0.500
predicted_SO	1.423	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.423	1.000	-1.423	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.231	-
predicted_3B	0.038	-
predicted_AB	3.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.183	-
predicted_BB	0.692	-
predicted_H	0.590	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.294	-
predicted_R	0.538	-
predicted_RBI	0.300	-
predicted_SLG	0.246	-
predicted_SO	1.423	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.217	-0.014
predicted_3B	0.019	-0.019
predicted_AB	3.832	0.332
predicted_AVG	0.183	0.000
predicted_BB	0.625	-0.067
predicted_H	0.684	0.094
predicted_HBP	0.046	-
predicted_HR	0.009	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.294	0.000
predicted_R	0.602	0.064
predicted_RBI	0.351	0.051
predicted_SLG	0.246	0.000
predicted_SO	1.371	-0.052

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.83), rates preserved: AVG=0.179 HR/AB=0.002

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-2.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 26

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	22.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	7.000	0.1818	0.2800	0.2273	0.1818	0.0000	0.0454	0.1364	0.3182
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	5.000	5.000	12.000	0.1579	0.2727	0.2105	0.1579	0.0000	0.0790	0.1316	0.3158
season	0.20	26	-	91.000	21.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	21.000	14.000	18.000	37.000	0.2308	0.3636	0.3516	0.2308	0.0110	0.2308	0.1978	0.4066

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2090
predicted_3B	0.0090
predicted_AB	4.0100
predicted_AVG	0.1832
predicted_BB	0.5890
predicted_H	0.7350
predicted_HBP	0.0460
predicted_HR	0.0090
predicted_OBP	0.2942
predicted_R	0.6360
predicted_RBI	0.3780
predicted_SLG	0.2463
predicted_SO	1.3430

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2310	0.2090	0.2167	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0380	0.0090	0.0192	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5000	4.0100	3.8315	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1830	0.1832	0.1831	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6920	0.5890	0.6250	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5900	0.7350	0.6843	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0460	0.0460	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0090	0.0094	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2940	0.2942	0.2941	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5380	0.6360	0.6017	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3000	0.3780	0.3507	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2460	0.2463	0.2462	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4230	1.3430	1.3710	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	26
Season rows before report date	26
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	26
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.231

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260504_MIL@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	669003
playerID	669003
playerName	Garrett Mitchell
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	MIL
teamID	16

Tyler Black (672012) · BATTER · DH · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 6

All-history rows before 20260509: 6

System season_avg: 0.3910

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3913

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.667	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.667	0.000	0.333	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.833	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.833	3.000	0.167	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.418	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.391	0.000	-0.141	0.250
predicted_BB	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.570	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.500	0.000	-0.500	1.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.444	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.417	0.000	-0.167	0.250
predicted_R	0.333	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_RBI	1.220	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	1.167	0.000	0.833	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.603	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.565	0.000	-0.065	0.500
predicted_SO	0.667	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.667	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.833	-
predicted_AVG	0.418	-
predicted_BB	0.167	-
predicted_H	1.570	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.444	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	1.220	-
predicted_SLG	0.603	-
predicted_SO	0.667	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.705	0.038
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.882	0.049
predicted_AVG	0.418	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.176	0.009
predicted_H	1.611	0.041
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.444	-0.000
predicted_R	0.352	0.019
predicted_RBI	1.252	0.032
predicted_SLG	0.603	0.000
predicted_SO	0.648	-0.019

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.88), rates preserved: AVG=0.415 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	2.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	2.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 3.833

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	9.000	4.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	0.4500	0.4762	0.6500	0.4500	0.3500	0.0500	0.1500
last_10	0.35	6	-	23.000	9.000	4.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.3913	0.4167	0.5652	0.3913	0.3044	0.0435	0.1739
season	0.20	6	-	23.000	9.000	4.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.3913	0.4167	0.5652	0.3913	0.3044	0.0435	0.1739

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.7260
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.9080
predicted_AVG	0.4177
predicted_BB	0.1810
predicted_H	1.6330
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.4435
predicted_R	0.3630
predicted_RBI	1.2700
predicted_SLG	0.6034
predicted_SO	0.6380

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.6670	0.7260	0.7053	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8330	3.9080	3.8818	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.4180	0.4177	0.4178	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1670	0.1810	0.1761	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.5700	1.6330	1.6109	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4440	0.4435	0.4437	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.3630	0.3525	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	1.2200	1.2700	1.2525	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6030	0.6034	0.6033	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6670	0.6380	0.6482	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.391

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260506_MIL@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	672012
playerID	672012
playerName	Tyler Black
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	MIL
teamID	16

Sal Frelick (686217) · BATTER · RF · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 31

All-history rows before 20260509: 31

System season_avg: 0.2130

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2130

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.067	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.065	0.000	0.935	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.600	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.484	3.000	0.516	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.268	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.213	0.333	0.037	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.433	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.484	0.000	-0.484	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.032	0.000	-0.032	0.000
predicted_H	0.880	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.742	1.000	0.258	0.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.097	0.000	-0.097	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.340	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.310	0.333	-0.060	-0.083
predicted_R	0.533	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.516	0.000	-0.516	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.323	1.000	-0.323	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.032	0.000	-0.032	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.350	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.315	0.333	0.185	0.167
predicted_SO	0.467	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.452	1.000	1.548	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.067	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.600	-
predicted_AVG	0.268	-
predicted_BB	0.433	-
predicted_H	0.880	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.340	-
predicted_R	0.533	-
predicted_RBI	0.240	-
predicted_SLG	0.350	-
predicted_SO	0.467	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.032	-0.035
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.496	-0.104
predicted_AVG	0.268	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.393	-0.040
predicted_H	0.907	0.027
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.340	-0.000
predicted_R	0.473	-0.060
predicted_RBI	0.245	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.350	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.327	-0.140

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.60), rates preserved: AVG=0.252 HR/AB=0.025

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	0.2941	0.3684	0.2941	0.2941	0.0000	0.0588	0.1177	0.0588
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	9.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	7.000	3.000	2.000	0.2647	0.3243	0.4412	0.2647	0.0588	0.0882	0.0882	0.0588
season	0.20	30	-	108.000	23.000	2.000	3.000	8.000	16.000	13.000	14.000	0.2130	0.3033	0.3148	0.2130	0.0278	0.0741	0.1204	0.1296

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0130
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.4400
predicted_AVG	0.2676
predicted_BB	0.3710
predicted_H	0.9210
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0900
predicted_OBP	0.3399
predicted_R	0.4410
predicted_RBI	0.2480
predicted_SLG	0.3497
predicted_SO	0.2510

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0670	0.0130	0.0319	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6000	3.4400	3.4960	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2680	0.2676	0.2677	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4330	0.3710	0.3927	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8800	0.9210	0.9066	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.0900	0.0900	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3400	0.3399	0.3399	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5330	0.4410	0.4732	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2400	0.2480	0.2452	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3500	0.3497	0.3498	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4670	0.2510	0.3266	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.213

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260508_NYY@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	686217
playerID	686217
playerName	Sal Frelick
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	MIL
teamID	16

David Hamilton (666152) · BATTER · SS · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 28

All-history rows before 20260509: 28

System season_avg: 0.2410

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2414

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.071	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.107	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.107	4.000	-0.107	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.241	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.241	0.250	0.092	0.083
predicted_BB	0.429	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.429	0.000	0.571	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_H	0.630	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.750	1.000	0.250	0.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.286	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.340	0.250	0.160	0.250
predicted_R	0.536	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.536	0.000	0.464	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.266	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.264	0.250	0.069	0.083
predicted_SO	0.714	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.714	1.000	0.286	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.071	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.107	-
predicted_AVG	0.241	-
predicted_BB	0.429	-
predicted_H	0.630	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.286	-
predicted_R	0.536	-
predicted_RBI	0.150	-
predicted_SLG	0.266	-
predicted_SO	0.714	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.081	0.010
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.318	0.211
predicted_AVG	0.241	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.290	-0.139
predicted_H	0.758	0.128
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.286	0.000
predicted_R	0.468	-0.068
predicted_RBI	0.180	0.030
predicted_SLG	0.266	0.000
predicted_SO	0.893	0.179

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.32), rates preserved: AVG=0.228 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	6.000	0.2222	0.2632	0.2222	0.2222	0.0000	0.0556	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	9.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	1.000	9.000	0.2647	0.2857	0.3235	0.2647	0.1177	0.0294	0.2647
season	0.20	28	-	87.000	21.000	2.000	7.000	15.000	12.000	20.000	0.2414	0.3400	0.2644	0.2414	0.0805	0.1379	0.2299

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0860
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.4310
predicted_AVG	0.2409
predicted_BB	0.2160
predicted_H	0.8270
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.2864
predicted_R	0.4310
predicted_RBI	0.1970
predicted_SLG	0.2661
predicted_SO	0.9900

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0710	0.0860	0.0807	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1070	3.4310	3.3176	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2410	0.2409	0.2409	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4290	0.2160	0.2905	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6300	0.8270	0.7580	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2860	0.2864	0.2863	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5360	0.4310	0.4677	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1500	0.1970	0.1805	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2660	0.2661	0.2661	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7140	0.9900	0.8934	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.241

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260506_MIL@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	666152
playerID	666152
playerName	David Hamilton
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	MIL
teamID	16

Kyle Harrison (690986) · PITCHER · Starter · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 6

All-history rows before 20260509: 6

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.167	1.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_IP	4.100	4.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.867	6.000	-0.767	-1.900
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	-	Pitching_SO	5.833	5.000	-1.833	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 4.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	24.200	6.000	20.000	8.000	27.000	1.000	2.1892	1.1351	0.2432	0.8108	0.3243	1.0946	0.0405
last_10	0.35	6	29.200	7.000	24.000	9.000	35.000	2.000	2.1236	1.1124	0.2360	0.8090	0.3034	1.1798	0.0674
season	0.20	6	29.200	7.000	24.000	9.000	35.000	2.000	2.1236	1.1124	0.2360	0.8090	0.3034	1.1798	0.0674

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.5640
predicted_ER	1.1960
predicted_ERA	2.1531
predicted_H	4.0490
predicted_HR	0.2770
predicted_IP	5.0000
predicted_SO	5.7070
predicted_WHIP	1.1226

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	1.5640	2.0666	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	1.1960	1.1274	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.1531	2.1531	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	4.0490	3.3319	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.2770	0.5301	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.1000	5.0000	4.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	4.0000	5.7070	5.1096	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1226	1.1226	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.1
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	3
SO	4
HR	1
BF	20
Pitches	95

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	24
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	2.12
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	6
Pitching_H	7
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	93
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	5
Pitching_Strikes	66
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260502_MIL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	690986
playerID	690986
playerName	Kyle Harrison
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	MIL
teamID	16

Abner Uribe (682842) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 15

All-history rows before 20260509: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.400	1.000	0.600	0.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.780	1.000	0.420	0.200
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.933	0.000	1.067	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	2.000	3.000	0.000	5.000	1.000	4.1538	0.6923	0.4615	0.6923	0.0000	1.1539	0.2308
last_10	0.35	10	8.200	5.000	7.000	2.000	8.000	1.000	5.1923	1.0385	0.5769	0.8077	0.2308	0.9231	0.1154
season	0.20	15	13.100	6.000	11.000	3.000	14.000	1.000	4.0500	1.0500	0.4500	0.8250	0.2250	1.0500	0.0750

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1260
predicted_ER	0.5000
predicted_ERA	4.4965
predicted_H	0.7590
predicted_HR	0.1590
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0520
predicted_WHIP	0.8850

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1260	0.0819	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.5000	0.6750	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.4965	4.4965	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.7590	1.1933	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.1590	0.4533	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.0000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.0520	1.3838	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.8850	0.8850	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	2
HR	1
BF	5
Pitches	24

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	4.05
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_MIL@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	682842
playerID	682842
playerName	Abner Uribe
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIL
teamID	16

Aaron Ashby (676879) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 17

All-history rows before 20260509: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.353	0.000	1.647	2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.188	2.000	-0.188	-1.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	2.059	1.000	-0.059	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	8.000	1.000	4.000	6.000	11.000	0.000	1.1250	1.2500	0.1250	0.5000	0.7500	1.3750	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	13.100	3.000	10.000	9.000	21.000	0.000	2.0250	1.4250	0.2250	0.7500	0.6750	1.5750	0.0000
season	0.20	17	23.000	6.000	17.000	14.000	35.000	1.000	2.3478	1.3478	0.2609	0.7391	0.6087	1.5217	0.0435

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.0320
predicted_ER	0.2780
predicted_ERA	1.6846
predicted_H	0.9420
predicted_HR	0.0130
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	2.1870
predicted_WHIP	1.3308

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	1.0320	1.0208	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.2780	0.8807	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.6846	1.6846	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	0.9420	1.6623	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0130	0.3584	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.1000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	2.1870	2.1216	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3308	1.3308	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	3
R	2
ER	2
BB	1
SO	2
HR	1
BF	7
Pitches	32

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.35
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	28
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	18
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_MIL@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	676879
playerID	676879
playerName	Aaron Ashby
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIL
teamID	16

DL Hall (669084) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 15

All-history rows before 20260509: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.200	0.000	-0.200
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.947	1.000	0.053
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.333	1.000	-0.333

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	7.100	0.000	1.000	3.000	8.000	0.000	0.0000	0.5455	0.0000	0.1364	0.4091	1.0909	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	3.000	5.000	6.000	10.000	1.000	2.7931	1.1379	0.3103	0.5172	0.6207	1.0345	0.1035
season	0.20	15	17.000	3.000	9.000	11.000	20.000	1.000	1.5882	1.1765	0.1765	0.5294	0.6471	1.1765	0.0588

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6100
predicted_ER	0.1650
predicted_ERA	1.2952
predicted_H	0.4010
predicted_HR	0.0550
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.2520
predicted_WHIP	0.8790

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.6100	0.3965	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1650	0.1073	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.2952	1.2952	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.4010	0.6107	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0550	0.0358	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.2520	1.1638	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.8790	0.8790	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.59
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_MIL@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	669084
playerID	669084
playerName	DL Hall
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIL
teamID	16

Trevor Megill (656730) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 14

All-history rows before 20260509: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.643	1.000	-0.643	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.929	1.000	0.071	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.071	2.000	-1.071	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	1.8000	0.8000	0.2000	0.6000	0.2000	1.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	4.000	8.000	2.000	10.000	3.6000	1.0000	0.4000	0.8000	0.2000	1.0000
season	0.20	13	13.000	5.000	10.000	5.000	15.000	3.4615	1.1538	0.3846	0.7692	0.3846	1.1539

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2370
predicted_ER	0.3070
predicted_ERA	2.7623
predicted_H	0.7040
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0310
predicted_WHIP	0.9408

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.2370	0.5040	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3070	0.1996	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.7623	2.7623	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7040	0.4576	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.0310	0.6702	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9408	0.9408	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	6.23
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	21
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	14
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_MIL@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	656730
playerID	656730
playerName	Trevor Megill
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIL
teamID	16

20260509_OAK@BAL

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 4, "confidence": 0.7038617647577383, "home_win_probability": 0.2961382352422617, "away_win_probability": 0.7038617647577383, "predicted_score_text": "OAK 7 - 4 BAL", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to final winner probability with starter-quality caps.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 3, "predicted_score_text": "OAK 6 - 3 BAL", "confidence": 0.7038617647577383, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score", "final_prediction_synced": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "OAK 6 - 3 BAL", "winner": "OAK"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "OAK 7 - 4 BAL", "winner": "OAK"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 1, "home_run_delta": 1, "total_run_delta": 2, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"}}

Away Team: OAK

Tyler Soderstrom (691016) · BATTER · LF · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 36

All-history rows before 20260509: 36

System season_avg: 0.2130

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2132

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.306	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.306	0.000	-0.306	0.000
predicted_3B	0.028	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_AB	3.920	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.778	4.000	1.222	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.236	0.200	0.200	Hitting_AVG	0.213	0.000	-0.013	0.200
predicted_BB	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.920	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.806	0.000	0.194	1.000
predicted_HR	0.300	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.139	0.000	0.861	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.340	0.200	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.303	0.000	-0.103	0.200
predicted_R	0.583	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.583	1.000	0.417	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	3.000	3.000	Hitting_RBI	0.556	0.000	2.444	3.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.505	0.800	0.800	Hitting_SLG	0.419	0.000	0.381	0.800
predicted_SO	0.917	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.917	2.000	0.083	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.306	-
predicted_3B	0.028	-
predicted_AB	3.920	-
predicted_AVG	0.236	-
predicted_BB	0.500	-
predicted_H	0.920	-
predicted_HR	0.300	-
predicted_OBP	0.340	-
predicted_R	0.583	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.505	-
predicted_SO	0.917	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.192	-0.114
predicted_3B	0.013	-0.015
predicted_AB	3.735	-0.185
predicted_AVG	0.236	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.553	0.053
predicted_H	0.879	-0.041
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.286	-0.014
predicted_OBP	0.340	0.000
predicted_R	0.815	0.232
predicted_RBI	0.370	-0.020
predicted_SLG	0.505	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.043	0.126

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.92), rates preserved: AVG=0.224 HR/AB=0.073

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	3.000	3.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.920

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	6.000	3.000	6.000	0.2778	0.3810	0.6111	0.2778	0.1111	0.1111	0.1667	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	7.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	8.000	6.000	11.000	0.1944	0.3095	0.4167	0.1944	0.0556	0.0556	0.1667	0.3056
season	0.20	36	-	136.000	29.000	11.000	1.000	5.000	20.000	21.000	18.000	33.000	0.2132	0.3032	0.4191	0.2132	0.0368	0.1471	0.1323	0.2427

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1300
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.6360
predicted_AVG	0.2357
predicted_BB	0.5810
predicted_H	0.8570
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.2790
predicted_OBP	0.3404
predicted_R	0.9400
predicted_RBI	0.3590
predicted_SLG	0.5047
predicted_SO	1.1110

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3060	0.1300	0.1916	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0280	0.0050	0.0130	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9200	3.6360	3.7354	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2360	0.2357	0.2358	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5000	0.5810	0.5526	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9200	0.8570	0.8791	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3000	0.2790	0.2863	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3400	0.3404	0.3403	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5830	0.9400	0.8150	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.3590	0.3699	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5050	0.5047	0.5048	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9170	1.1110	1.0431	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	3
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.213

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260508_OAK@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	691016
playerID	691016
playerName	Tyler Soderstrom
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	OAK
teamID	20

Nick Kurtz (701762) · BATTER · 1B · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 37

All-history rows before 20260509: 37

System season_avg: 0.2570

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2574

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.135	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.135	0.000	-0.135	0.000
predicted_3B	0.027	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.027	1.000	-0.027	-1.000
predicted_AB	4.020	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.676	5.000	0.324	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.304	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.257	0.400	-0.257	-0.400
predicted_BB	0.973	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.973	0.000	0.027	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_H	1.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.946	2.000	-0.946	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.135	0.000	-0.135	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.393	0.200	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.413	0.400	-0.213	-0.200
predicted_R	0.541	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.541	0.000	-0.541	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.740	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.541	2.000	-0.541	-2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.108	0.000	-0.108	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.413	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.419	0.800	-0.419	-0.800
predicted_SO	1.405	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.405	0.000	0.595	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.135	-
predicted_3B	0.027	-
predicted_AB	4.020	-
predicted_AVG	0.304	-
predicted_BB	0.973	-
predicted_H	1.220	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.393	-
predicted_R	0.541	-
predicted_RBI	0.740	-
predicted_SLG	0.413	-
predicted_SO	1.405	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.112	-0.023
predicted_3B	0.093	0.066
predicted_AB	4.046	0.026
predicted_AVG	0.304	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.729	-0.244
predicted_H	1.229	0.009
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.393	-0.000
predicted_R	0.391	-0.150
predicted_RBI	0.743	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.413	0.000
predicted_SO	1.190	-0.215

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.05), rates preserved: AVG=0.304 HR/AB=0.007

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 4.020

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	7.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	0.3333	0.3913	0.4286	0.3333	0.0000	0.1905	0.0952	0.1905
last_10	0.35	10	-	41.000	12.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	8.000	3.000	6.000	12.000	0.2927	0.3830	0.3902	0.2927	0.0000	0.1951	0.1463	0.2927
season	0.20	37	-	136.000	35.000	5.000	1.000	5.000	20.000	20.000	36.000	52.000	0.2574	0.4128	0.4191	0.2574	0.0368	0.1471	0.2647	0.3824

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0990
predicted_3B	0.1280
predicted_AB	4.0600
predicted_AVG	0.3039
predicted_BB	0.5970
predicted_H	1.2340
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0300
predicted_OBP	0.3927
predicted_R	0.3100
predicted_RBI	0.7450
predicted_SLG	0.4133
predicted_SO	1.0740

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1350	0.0990	0.1116	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0270	0.1280	0.0927	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0200	4.0600	4.0460	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3040	0.3039	0.3039	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.9730	0.5970	0.7286	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2200	1.2340	1.2291	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0300	0.0300	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3930	0.3927	0.3928	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5410	0.3100	0.3909	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7400	0.7450	0.7432	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4130	0.4133	0.4132	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4050	1.0740	1.1899	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.257

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	1
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260508_OAK@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	701762
playerID	701762
playerName	Nick Kurtz
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	OAK
teamID	20

Shea Langeliers (669127) · BATTER · C · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 34

All-history rows before 20260509: 34

System season_avg: 0.3330

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3333

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.265	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.265	0.000	-0.265	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.400	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	4.235	5.000	0.765	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.399	0.400	0.400	Hitting_AVG	0.333	0.200	0.067	0.200
predicted_BB	0.353	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.353	0.000	-0.353	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.760	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	1.412	1.000	0.588	1.000
predicted_HR	0.430	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.324	0.000	-0.324	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.429	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.385	0.200	0.015	0.200
predicted_R	0.765	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.765	0.000	0.235	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.840	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.588	0.000	0.412	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.799	0.400	0.400	Hitting_SLG	0.625	0.200	-0.225	0.200
predicted_SO	1.029	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.029	3.000	-0.029	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.265	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.400	-
predicted_AVG	0.399	-
predicted_BB	0.353	-
predicted_H	1.760	-
predicted_HR	0.430	-
predicted_OBP	0.429	-
predicted_R	0.765	-
predicted_RBI	0.840	-
predicted_SLG	0.799	-
predicted_SO	1.029	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.414	0.149
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.482	0.082
predicted_AVG	0.399	0.000
predicted_BB	0.275	-0.078
predicted_H	1.791	0.031
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.435	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.429	0.000
predicted_R	0.956	0.191
predicted_RBI	0.856	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.799	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.868	-0.161

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.48), rates preserved: AVG=0.400 HR/AB=0.097

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	2.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, BvP AVG=0.400)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	2.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 4.400

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	23.000	10.000	3.000	3.000	6.000	7.000	1.000	4.000	0.4348	0.4583	0.9565	0.4348	0.1304	0.2609	0.0435	0.1739
last_10	0.35	10	-	46.000	18.000	5.000	3.000	6.000	8.000	2.000	6.000	0.3913	0.4167	0.6957	0.3913	0.0652	0.1304	0.0435	0.1304
season	0.20	34	-	144.000	48.000	9.000	11.000	20.000	26.000	12.000	35.000	0.3333	0.3846	0.6250	0.3333	0.0764	0.1389	0.0833	0.2431

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.4950
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.5270
predicted_AVG	0.3993
predicted_BB	0.2330
predicted_H	1.8080
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.4380
predicted_OBP	0.4290
predicted_R	1.0590
predicted_RBI	0.8640
predicted_SLG	0.7989
predicted_SO	0.7810

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2650	0.4950	0.4145	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.4000	4.5270	4.4825	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3990	0.3993	0.3992	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3530	0.2330	0.2750	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.7600	1.8080	1.7912	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.4300	0.4380	0.4352	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4290	0.4290	0.4290	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7650	1.0590	0.9561	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.8400	0.8640	0.8556	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.7990	0.7989	0.7989	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0290	0.7810	0.8678	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.333

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	1
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260508_OAK@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	669127
playerID	669127
playerName	Shea Langeliers
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	OAK
teamID	20

Zack Gelof (680869) · BATTER · 3B · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 15

All-history rows before 20260509: 15

System season_avg: 0.2690

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2692

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.133	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.133	0.000	0.867	1.000
predicted_3B	0.067	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_AB	3.467	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.467	3.000	-0.467	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.304	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.269	0.333	0.064	0.000
predicted_BB	0.267	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.267	1.000	0.733	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.920	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.933	1.000	0.067	0.000
predicted_HR	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.383	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.321	0.500	0.179	0.000
predicted_R	0.667	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.667	1.000	0.333	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.720	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.733	1.000	-0.733	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.669	0.667	0.667	Hitting_SLG	0.519	0.333	0.147	0.333
predicted_SO	0.933	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.933	1.000	0.067	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.133	-
predicted_3B	0.067	-
predicted_AB	3.467	-
predicted_AVG	0.304	-
predicted_BB	0.267	-
predicted_H	0.920	-
predicted_HR	0.250	-
predicted_OBP	0.383	-
predicted_R	0.667	-
predicted_RBI	0.720	-
predicted_SLG	0.669	-
predicted_SO	0.933	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.145	0.012
predicted_3B	0.113	0.045
predicted_AB	3.513	0.046
predicted_AVG	0.304	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.393	0.126
predicted_H	1.021	0.101
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.275	0.025
predicted_OBP	0.383	-0.000
predicted_R	0.828	0.161
predicted_RBI	0.798	0.078
predicted_SLG	0.669	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.922	-0.011

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.51), rates preserved: AVG=0.291 HR/AB=0.078

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	6.000	3.000	5.000	0.3333	0.4286	0.8333	0.3333	0.1111	0.2778	0.1667	0.2778
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	10.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	7.000	4.000	8.000	0.2857	0.3590	0.5429	0.2857	0.0571	0.2000	0.1143	0.2286
season	0.20	15	-	52.000	14.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	11.000	10.000	4.000	14.000	0.2692	0.3214	0.5192	0.2692	0.0577	0.2115	0.0769	0.2692

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1510
predicted_3B	0.1370
predicted_AB	3.5380
predicted_AVG	0.3038
predicted_BB	0.4610
predicted_H	1.0750
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.2890
predicted_OBP	0.3828
predicted_R	0.9150
predicted_RBI	0.8400
predicted_SLG	0.6688
predicted_SO	0.9160

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1330	0.1510	0.1447	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0670	0.1370	0.1125	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4670	3.5380	3.5131	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3040	0.3038	0.3039	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2670	0.4610	0.3931	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9200	1.0750	1.0208	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2500	0.2890	0.2753	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3830	0.3828	0.3829	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6670	0.9150	0.8282	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7200	0.8400	0.7980	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6690	0.6688	0.6689	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9330	0.9160	0.9220	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.269

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B-CF
gameID	20260508_OAK@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	680869
playerID	680869
playerName	Zack Gelof
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	OAK
teamID	20

Carlos Cortes (666126) · BATTER · RF · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 23

All-history rows before 20260509: 23

System season_avg: 0.3420

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3418

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.130	0.000	-0.130	0.000
predicted_3B	0.043	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_AB	3.435	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.435	4.000	1.565	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.300	0.200	0.200	Hitting_AVG	0.342	0.000	-0.142	0.200
predicted_BB	0.304	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.304	0.000	-0.304	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.010	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.174	0.000	-0.174	1.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.174	0.000	-0.174	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.316	0.200	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.395	0.000	-0.195	0.200
predicted_R	0.478	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.478	0.000	0.522	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.609	0.000	-0.609	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.418	0.200	0.200	Hitting_SLG	0.557	0.000	-0.357	0.200
predicted_SO	0.391	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.391	1.000	-0.391	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.130	-
predicted_3B	0.043	-
predicted_AB	3.435	-
predicted_AVG	0.300	-
predicted_BB	0.304	-
predicted_H	1.010	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.316	-
predicted_R	0.478	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.418	-
predicted_SO	0.391	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.087	-0.043
predicted_3B	0.044	0.001
predicted_AB	3.833	0.398
predicted_AVG	0.300	0.000
predicted_BB	0.175	-0.129
predicted_H	1.144	0.134
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.102	0.012
predicted_OBP	0.316	0.000
predicted_R	0.541	0.063
predicted_RBI	0.439	0.049
predicted_SLG	0.418	0.000
predicted_SO	0.576	0.185

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.83), rates preserved: AVG=0.298 HR/AB=0.027

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 23

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	0.000	4.000	0.2381	0.2381	0.2381	0.2381	0.0000	0.0476	0.0000	0.1905
last_10	0.35	10	-	42.000	15.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	6.000	1.000	7.000	0.3571	0.3721	0.5714	0.3571	0.0476	0.1667	0.0238	0.1667
season	0.20	23	-	79.000	27.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	14.000	11.000	7.000	9.000	0.3418	0.3953	0.5570	0.3418	0.0506	0.1772	0.0886	0.1139

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0640
predicted_3B	0.0440
predicted_AB	4.0470
predicted_AVG	0.3005
predicted_BB	0.1050
predicted_H	1.2160
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1080
predicted_OBP	0.3164
predicted_R	0.5750
predicted_RBI	0.4660
predicted_SLG	0.4185
predicted_SO	0.6750

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1300	0.0640	0.0871	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0430	0.0440	0.0436	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4350	4.0470	3.8328	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3000	0.3005	0.3003	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3040	0.1050	0.1746	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0100	1.2160	1.1439	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.1080	0.1017	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3160	0.3164	0.3163	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4780	0.5750	0.5410	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.4660	0.4394	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4180	0.4185	0.4183	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3910	0.6750	0.5756	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	23
Season rows before report date	23
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	23
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.342

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260508_OAK@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	666126
playerID	666126
playerName	Carlos Cortes
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	OAK
teamID	20

Jeff McNeil (643446) · BATTER · 2B · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 30

All-history rows before 20260509: 30

System season_avg: 0.3180

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3178

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.267	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.267	0.000	0.733	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.567	2.000	2.000	Hitting_AB	3.567	3.000	-1.567	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.340	1.000	1.000	Hitting_AVG	0.318	0.000	0.682	1.000
predicted_BB	0.333	2.000	2.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	1.667	2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_H	1.030	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	1.133	0.000	0.867	2.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.033	0.000	-0.033	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.373	1.000	1.000	Hitting_OBP	0.380	0.250	0.620	0.750
predicted_R	0.300	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.300	0.000	0.700	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.620	3.000	3.000	Hitting_RBI	0.400	0.000	2.600	3.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.033	0.000	-0.033	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.415	1.500	1.500	Hitting_SLG	0.421	0.000	1.079	1.500
predicted_SO	0.433	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.433	1.000	-0.433	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.267	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.567	-
predicted_AVG	0.340	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	1.030	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.373	-
predicted_R	0.300	-
predicted_RBI	0.620	-
predicted_SLG	0.415	-
predicted_SO	0.433	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.255	-0.012
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.584	0.017
predicted_AVG	0.340	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.206	-0.127
predicted_H	1.155	0.125
predicted_HBP	0.138	-
predicted_HR	0.008	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.373	0.000
predicted_R	0.190	-0.110
predicted_RBI	0.697	0.077
predicted_SLG	0.415	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.532	0.099

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.58), rates preserved: AVG=0.322 HR/AB=0.002

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-2.000
BB	2.000	2.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	3.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	0.3333	0.3500	0.3889	0.3333	0.0000	0.2778	0.0000	0.2222
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	13.000	3.000	0.000	6.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	0.3611	0.4000	0.4444	0.3611	0.0000	0.1667	0.0556	0.1111
season	0.20	30	-	107.000	34.000	8.000	1.000	12.000	9.000	10.000	13.000	0.3178	0.3802	0.4206	0.3178	0.0094	0.1121	0.0935	0.1215

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2480
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.5930
predicted_AVG	0.3399
predicted_BB	0.1370
predicted_H	1.2220
predicted_HBP	0.1380
predicted_HR	0.0070
predicted_OBP	0.3735
predicted_R	0.1300
predicted_RBI	0.7390
predicted_SLG	0.4147
predicted_SO	0.5860

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2670	0.2480	0.2547	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5670	3.5930	3.5839	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3400	0.3399	0.3399	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.1370	0.2056	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0300	1.2220	1.1548	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1380	0.1380	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0070	0.0080	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3730	0.3735	0.3733	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3000	0.1300	0.1895	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6200	0.7390	0.6974	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4150	0.4147	0.4148	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4330	0.5860	0.5324	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	3
BB	2
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.318

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260508_OAK@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	643446
playerID	643446
playerName	Jeff McNeil
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	OAK
teamID	20

Lawrence Butler (671732) · BATTER · CF · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 27

All-history rows before 20260509: 27

System season_avg: 0.1960

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1959

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.593	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.593	4.000	1.407	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.182	0.200	0.200	Hitting_AVG	0.196	0.250	0.004	-0.050
predicted_BB	0.556	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.556	0.000	-0.556	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.074	0.000	-0.074	0.000
predicted_H	0.600	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.704	1.000	0.296	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.365	0.200	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.304	0.250	-0.104	-0.050
predicted_R	0.519	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.519	1.000	-0.519	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.444	0.000	-0.444	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.148	0.000	-0.148	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.279	0.200	0.200	Hitting_SLG	0.320	0.250	-0.120	-0.050
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	2.000	0.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.593	-
predicted_AVG	0.182	-
predicted_BB	0.556	-
predicted_H	0.600	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.365	-
predicted_R	0.519	-
predicted_RBI	0.190	-
predicted_SLG	0.279	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.137	0.026
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.353	-0.240
predicted_AVG	0.182	0.000
predicted_BB	0.814	0.258
predicted_H	0.592	-0.008
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.056	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.365	-0.000
predicted_R	0.690	0.171
predicted_RBI	0.185	-0.005
predicted_SLG	0.279	0.000
predicted_SO	0.962	-0.038

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.59), rates preserved: AVG=0.165 HR/AB=0.016

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	5.000	6.000	4.000	0.2000	0.4286	0.2667	0.2000	0.0000	0.0000	0.4000	0.2667
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	8.000	11.000	0.1515	0.3171	0.2727	0.1515	0.0303	0.0909	0.2424	0.3333
season	0.20	27	-	97.000	19.000	3.000	3.000	12.000	14.000	15.000	27.000	0.1959	0.3036	0.3196	0.1959	0.0309	0.1237	0.1546	0.2783

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1510
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.2240
predicted_AVG	0.1822
predicted_BB	0.9530
predicted_H	0.5870
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0540
predicted_OBP	0.3646
predicted_R	0.7820
predicted_RBI	0.1820
predicted_SLG	0.2794
predicted_SO	0.9420

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1110	0.1510	0.1370	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5930	3.2240	3.3532	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1820	0.1822	0.1821	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5560	0.9530	0.8140	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6000	0.5870	0.5916	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0540	0.0561	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3650	0.3646	0.3647	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5190	0.7820	0.6900	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1900	0.1820	0.1848	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2790	0.2794	0.2793	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9420	0.9623	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.196

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF-RF
gameID	20260508_OAK@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	671732
playerID	671732
playerName	Lawrence Butler
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	OAK
teamID	20

Jacob Wilson (805779) · BATTER · SS · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 37

All-history rows before 20260509: 37

System season_avg: 0.2990

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2987

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.216	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.216	0.000	-0.216	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.162	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	4.162	3.000	0.838	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.328	0.400	0.400	Hitting_AVG	0.299	0.667	0.101	-0.267
predicted_BB	0.135	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.135	1.000	-0.135	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.290	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	1.243	2.000	0.757	0.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.081	0.000	-0.081	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.382	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.319	0.750	0.081	-0.350
predicted_R	0.486	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.486	1.000	0.514	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.650	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.514	1.000	-0.514	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.054	0.000	-0.054	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.466	0.400	0.400	Hitting_SLG	0.409	0.667	-0.009	-0.267
predicted_SO	0.459	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.459	0.000	0.541	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.216	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.162	-
predicted_AVG	0.328	-
predicted_BB	0.135	-
predicted_H	1.290	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.382	-
predicted_R	0.486	-
predicted_RBI	0.650	-
predicted_SLG	0.466	-
predicted_SO	0.459	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.148	-0.068
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.996	-0.166
predicted_AVG	0.328	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.275	0.140
predicted_H	1.284	-0.006
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.142	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.382	-0.000
predicted_R	0.509	0.023
predicted_RBI	0.645	-0.005
predicted_SLG	0.466	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.428	-0.031

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.16), rates preserved: AVG=0.308 HR/AB=0.034

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 4.162

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	6.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	0.3158	0.3810	0.4737	0.3158	0.0526	0.2105	0.1053	0.1053
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	14.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	7.000	4.000	4.000	0.3590	0.4186	0.4872	0.3590	0.0256	0.1282	0.1026	0.1026
season	0.20	37	-	154.000	46.000	8.000	3.000	19.000	18.000	5.000	17.000	0.2987	0.3187	0.4091	0.2987	0.0195	0.1234	0.0325	0.1104

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1110
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.9070
predicted_AVG	0.3275
predicted_BB	0.3510
predicted_H	1.2800
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1430
predicted_OBP	0.3817
predicted_R	0.5220
predicted_RBI	0.6420
predicted_SLG	0.4655
predicted_SO	0.4120

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2160	0.1110	0.1477	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1620	3.9070	3.9962	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3280	0.3275	0.3277	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1350	0.3510	0.2754	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2900	1.2800	1.2835	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1430	0.1419	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3820	0.3817	0.3818	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4860	0.5220	0.5094	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6500	0.6420	0.6448	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4660	0.4655	0.4657	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4590	0.4120	0.4284	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.299

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260508_OAK@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	805779
playerID	805779
playerName	Jacob Wilson
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	OAK
teamID	20

Brent Rooker (667670) · BATTER · DH · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 21

All-history rows before 20260509: 21

System season_avg: 0.1830

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1829

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.048	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.048	0.000	-0.048	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.940	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.905	4.000	0.095	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.224	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.183	0.250	0.067	0.000
predicted_BB	0.429	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.429	0.000	0.571	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.880	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.714	1.000	0.286	0.000
predicted_HR	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.190	0.000	-0.190	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.288	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.258	0.250	0.142	0.150
predicted_R	0.381	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.381	0.000	0.619	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.730	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.714	0.000	-0.714	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.095	0.000	-0.095	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.404	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.341	0.250	-0.091	0.000
predicted_SO	1.476	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.476	2.000	-0.476	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.048	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.940	-
predicted_AVG	0.224	-
predicted_BB	0.429	-
predicted_H	0.880	-
predicted_HR	0.190	-
predicted_OBP	0.288	-
predicted_R	0.381	-
predicted_RBI	0.730	-
predicted_SLG	0.404	-
predicted_SO	1.476	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.105	0.057
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.012	0.072
predicted_AVG	0.224	0.000
predicted_BB	0.392	-0.037
predicted_H	0.898	0.018
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.195	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.288	0.000
predicted_R	0.332	-0.049
predicted_RBI	0.742	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.404	0.000
predicted_SO	1.578	0.102

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.01), rates preserved: AVG=0.224 HR/AB=0.049

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	2.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 3.940

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	9.000	0.2500	0.3182	0.4500	0.2500	0.0500	0.2000	0.1000	0.4500
last_10	0.35	10	-	42.000	9.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	4.000	3.000	15.000	0.2143	0.2667	0.3810	0.2143	0.0476	0.1667	0.0714	0.3571
season	0.20	21	-	82.000	15.000	1.000	4.000	15.000	8.000	9.000	31.000	0.1829	0.2581	0.3415	0.1829	0.0488	0.1829	0.1098	0.3780

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1350
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.0510
predicted_AVG	0.2241
predicted_BB	0.3720
predicted_H	0.9080
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1980
predicted_OBP	0.2882
predicted_R	0.3050
predicted_RBI	0.7490
predicted_SLG	0.4042
predicted_SO	1.6330

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0480	0.1350	0.1046	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9400	4.0510	4.0122	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2240	0.2241	0.2241	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4290	0.3720	0.3920	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8800	0.9080	0.8982	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1900	0.1980	0.1952	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2880	0.2882	0.2881	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3810	0.3050	0.3316	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7300	0.7490	0.7424	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4040	0.4042	0.4041	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4760	1.6330	1.5780	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.183

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260508_OAK@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	667670
playerID	667670
playerName	Brent Rooker
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	OAK
teamID	20

Aaron Civale (650644) · PITCHER · Starter · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 7

All-history rows before 20260509: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.714	1.000	1.286	2.000
predicted_IP	3.200	3.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.071	6.000	-1.871	-2.800
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	-	Pitching_SO	3.857	3.000	0.143	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 3.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	26.200	9.000	33.000	5.000	18.000	2.000	3.0375	1.4250	0.3375	1.2375	0.1875	0.6750	0.0750
last_10	0.35	7	36.200	12.000	39.000	10.000	27.000	4.000	2.9455	1.3364	0.3273	1.0636	0.2727	0.7364	0.1091
season	0.20	7	36.200	12.000	39.000	10.000	27.000	4.000	2.9455	1.3364	0.3273	1.0636	0.2727	0.7364	0.1091

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.2500
predicted_ER	1.7700
predicted_ERA	2.9869
predicted_H	6.0900
predicted_HR	0.5000
predicted_IP	5.1000
predicted_SO	3.7800
predicted_WHIP	1.3763

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	4.0000	1.2500	2.2125	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	1.7700	2.2005	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.9869	2.9869	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	6.0900	5.0085	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.5000	0.3250	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	3.2000	5.1000	4.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	4.0000	3.7800	3.8570	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3763	1.3763	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	3.2
H	3
R	3
ER	3
BB	4
SO	4
HR	0
BF	20
Pitches	93

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	26
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	2.95
Pitching_Flyouts	8
Pitching_Groundouts	4
Pitching_H	7
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	93
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	61
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_CLE@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	650644
playerID	650644
playerName	Aaron Civale
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	OAK
teamID	20

Jack Perkins (678022) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 10

All-history rows before 20260509: 10

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.700	1.000	-0.700	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.370	0.200	-0.270	0.900
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	2.100	2.000	-1.100	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 10

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	3.000	5.000	2.000	9.000	4.5000	1.1667	0.5000	0.8333	0.3333	1.5000
last_10	0.35	10	15.100	7.000	14.000	5.000	21.000	4.1087	1.2391	0.4565	0.9130	0.3261	1.3696
season	0.20	10	15.100	7.000	14.000	5.000	21.000	4.1087	1.2391	0.4565	0.9130	0.3261	1.3696

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5000
predicted_ER	0.7220
predicted_ERA	4.2848
predicted_H	1.3300
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.2000
predicted_SO	2.1660
predicted_WHIP	1.2065

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5000	0.3250	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.7220	0.4693	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.2848	4.2848	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.3300	0.8645	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.2000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	2.1660	1.7579	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2065	1.2065	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	10
Season rows before report date	10
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	10
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	9

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	4.11
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	25
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_OAK@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	678022
playerID	678022
playerName	Jack Perkins
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	OAK
teamID	20

Scott Barlow (605130) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 17

All-history rows before 20260509: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.412	0.000	-0.412	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.888	1.000	0.212	0.100
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.882	1.000	1.118	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	2.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	0.000	3.1765	0.1765	0.3529	0.0000	0.1765	0.7059	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	3.000	3.000	4.000	9.000	1.000	2.5312	0.6562	0.2812	0.2812	0.3750	0.8438	0.0938
season	0.20	16	17.200	3.000	5.000	6.000	15.000	1.000	1.5283	0.6226	0.1698	0.2830	0.3396	0.8491	0.0566

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2790
predicted_ER	0.2910
predicted_ERA	2.6210
predicted_H	0.1550
predicted_HR	0.0440
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.7830
predicted_WHIP	0.4336

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2790	0.1814	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2910	0.1891	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.6210	2.6210	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.1550	0.1008	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0440	0.0286	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.0000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.7830	1.2089	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.4336	0.4336	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.57
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_OAK@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	605130
playerID	605130
playerName	Scott Barlow
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	OAK
teamID	20

Hogan Harris (663687) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 21

All-history rows before 20260509: 21

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.681	0.100	0.319	0.900
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.952	1.000	-0.952	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.100	2.000	7.000	4.000	4.000	1.000	5.4000	3.3000	0.6000	2.1000	1.2000	1.2000	0.3000
last_10	0.35	10	8.100	3.000	10.000	5.000	9.000	2.000	3.2400	1.8000	0.3600	1.2000	0.6000	1.0800	0.2400
season	0.20	21	19.200	6.000	17.000	17.000	20.000	2.000	2.7458	1.7288	0.3051	0.8644	0.8644	1.0170	0.1017

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6770
predicted_ER	0.3350
predicted_ERA	4.1132
predicted_H	1.1280
predicted_HR	0.1760
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.8220
predicted_WHIP	2.4608

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.6770	0.4401	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3350	0.2178	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.1132	4.1132	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.1280	0.7332	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1760	0.1144	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.8220	0.5343	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	2.4608	2.4608	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	2
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.75
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	5
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_OAK@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	663687
playerID	663687
playerName	Hogan Harris
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	OAK
teamID	20

Mark Leiter Jr. (643410) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 17

All-history rows before 20260509: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.765	4.000	0.235	-3.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.712	0.200	0.288	0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.941	1.000	0.059	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	4.000	3.000	2.000	5.000	0.000	9.0000	1.2500	1.0000	0.7500	0.5000	1.2500	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.100	8.000	9.000	5.000	11.000	1.000	8.6400	1.6800	0.9600	1.0800	0.6000	1.3200	0.1200
season	0.20	17	14.200	13.000	21.000	6.000	16.000	2.000	7.9773	1.8409	0.8864	1.4318	0.4091	1.0909	0.1364

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3790
predicted_ER	0.7060
predicted_ERA	8.6695
predicted_H	0.7350
predicted_HR	0.0510
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.9110
predicted_WHIP	1.5187

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3790	0.2464	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.7060	0.8089	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	8.6695	8.6695	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.7350	0.8277	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0510	0.0331	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9110	0.9422	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5187	1.5187	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	4
Pitching_ERA	7.98
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	22
Pitching_R	4
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	15
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_OAK@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	643410
playerID	643410
playerName	Mark Leiter Jr.
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	OAK
teamID	20

Joel Kuhnel (669270) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 13

All-history rows before 20260509: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.231	0.000	-0.231	0.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.854	1.000	-0.654	-0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.385	0.000	0.615	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	1.5000	1.0000	0.1667	0.3333	0.6667	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	11.100	3.000	9.000	4.000	4.000	2.3824	1.1471	0.2647	0.7941	0.3529	0.3529
season	0.20	13	13.200	3.000	10.000	4.000	5.000	1.9756	1.0244	0.2195	0.7317	0.2927	0.3659

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5540
predicted_ER	0.2430
predicted_ERA	1.9040
predicted_H	0.6600
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.3990
predicted_WHIP	1.0564

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5540	0.3601	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2430	0.1580	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.9040	1.9040	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6600	0.4290	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.3990	0.6094	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0564	1.0564	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.98
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	10
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	6
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_OAK@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	669270
playerID	669270
playerName	Joel Kuhnel
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	OAK
teamID	20

Home Team: BAL

Taylor Ward (621493) · BATTER · LF · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 38

All-history rows before 20260509: 38

System season_avg: 0.2700

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2701

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.342	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.342	0.000	-0.342	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.760	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.605	4.000	0.395	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.121	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.270	0.000	-0.020	0.250
predicted_BB	0.921	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.921	0.000	-0.921	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_H	0.460	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.974	0.000	0.026	1.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.389	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.420	0.000	-0.170	0.250
predicted_R	0.684	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.684	0.000	0.316	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.110	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.316	0.000	0.684	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.145	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.387	0.000	-0.137	0.250
predicted_SO	0.816	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.816	2.000	0.184	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.342	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.760	-
predicted_AVG	0.121	-
predicted_BB	0.921	-
predicted_H	0.460	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.389	-
predicted_R	0.684	-
predicted_RBI	0.110	-
predicted_SLG	0.145	-
predicted_SO	0.816	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.157	-0.185
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.299	-0.461
predicted_AVG	0.121	0.000
predicted_BB	1.188	0.266
predicted_H	0.402	-0.058
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.003	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.389	0.000
predicted_R	1.028	0.344
predicted_RBI	0.098	-0.012
predicted_SLG	0.145	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.089	0.273

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.76), rates preserved: AVG=0.107 HR/AB=0.001

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	7.000	7.000	7.000	0.0667	0.3636	0.0667	0.0667	0.0000	0.0000	0.4667	0.4667
last_10	0.35	10	-	28.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	12.000	14.000	12.000	0.1071	0.4048	0.1071	0.1071	0.0000	0.0357	0.5000	0.4286
season	0.20	38	-	137.000	37.000	13.000	1.000	12.000	26.000	35.000	31.000	0.2701	0.4195	0.3869	0.2701	0.0073	0.0876	0.2555	0.2263

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0580
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.0510
predicted_AVG	0.1215
predicted_BB	1.3310
predicted_H	0.3710
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.0040
predicted_OBP	0.3892
predicted_R	1.2140
predicted_RBI	0.0920
predicted_SLG	0.1449
predicted_SO	1.2360

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3420	0.0580	0.1574	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7600	3.0510	3.2992	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1210	0.1215	0.1213	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.9210	1.3310	1.1875	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4600	0.3710	0.4022	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0040	0.0026	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3890	0.3892	0.3891	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6840	1.2140	1.0285	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1100	0.0920	0.0983	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1450	0.1449	0.1449	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8160	1.2360	1.0890	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.27

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260508_OAK@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	621493
playerID	621493
playerName	Taylor Ward
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	BAL
teamID	3

Adley Rutschman (668939) · BATTER · C · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 21

All-history rows before 20260509: 21

System season_avg: 0.3090

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3086

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.020	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.857	3.000	0.143	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.279	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.309	0.667	-0.309	-0.667
predicted_BB	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.190	2.000	-1.190	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.238	1.000	-0.238	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.354	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.371	0.750	-0.371	-0.750
predicted_R	0.524	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.524	2.000	-0.524	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.800	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.905	1.000	-0.905	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.523	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.580	1.667	-0.580	-1.667
predicted_SO	0.524	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.524	0.000	0.476	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.333	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.020	-
predicted_AVG	0.279	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	1.120	-
predicted_HR	0.220	-
predicted_OBP	0.354	-
predicted_R	0.524	-
predicted_RBI	0.800	-
predicted_SLG	0.523	-
predicted_SO	0.524	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.323	-0.010
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.907	-0.113
predicted_AVG	0.279	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.323	-0.010
predicted_H	1.089	-0.031
predicted_HBP	0.135	-
predicted_HR	0.212	-0.008
predicted_OBP	0.354	0.000
predicted_R	0.564	0.040
predicted_RBI	0.777	-0.023
predicted_SLG	0.523	0.000
predicted_SO	0.460	-0.064

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.02), rates preserved: AVG=0.271 HR/AB=0.053

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, BvP AVG=0.111)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 4.020

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	5.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	0.2632	0.3636	0.5263	0.2632	0.0526	0.1579	0.1053	0.1053
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	11.000	2.000	2.000	9.000	6.000	2.000	4.000	0.2821	0.3333	0.4872	0.2821	0.0513	0.2308	0.0513	0.1026
season	0.20	21	-	81.000	25.000	7.000	5.000	19.000	11.000	7.000	11.000	0.3086	0.3708	0.5802	0.3086	0.0617	0.2346	0.0864	0.1358

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3180
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.8460
predicted_AVG	0.2789
predicted_BB	0.3180
predicted_H	1.0730
predicted_HBP	0.1350
predicted_HR	0.2080
predicted_OBP	0.3544
predicted_R	0.5850
predicted_RBI	0.7640
predicted_SLG	0.5234
predicted_SO	0.4250

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3330	0.3180	0.3233	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0200	3.8460	3.9069	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2790	0.2789	0.2789	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.3180	0.3233	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1200	1.0730	1.0895	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1350	0.1350	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2200	0.2080	0.2122	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3540	0.3544	0.3543	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5240	0.5850	0.5636	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.8000	0.7640	0.7766	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5230	0.5234	0.5233	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5240	0.4250	0.4597	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.309

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260508_OAK@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	668939
playerID	668939
playerName	Adley Rutschman
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	BAL
teamID	3

Samuel Basallo (694212) · BATTER · DH · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 27

All-history rows before 20260509: 27

System season_avg: 0.2480

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2475

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.148	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.148	1.000	-0.148	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.037	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.037	0.000	-0.037	0.000
predicted_AB	3.741	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.741	4.000	0.259	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.248	0.250	-0.248	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.370	0.000	-0.370	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.926	1.000	-0.926	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.185	0.000	-0.185	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.354	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.315	0.250	-0.315	-0.250
predicted_R	0.481	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.481	1.000	-0.481	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.660	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.481	0.000	-0.481	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.558	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.455	0.500	-0.455	-0.500
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.148	-
predicted_3B	0.037	-
predicted_AB	3.741	-
predicted_AVG	0.320	-
predicted_BB	0.370	-
predicted_H	1.170	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.354	-
predicted_R	0.481	-
predicted_RBI	0.660	-
predicted_SLG	0.558	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.278	0.130
predicted_3B	0.099	0.062
predicted_AB	3.840	0.099
predicted_AVG	0.320	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.262	-0.108
predicted_H	1.218	0.048
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.103	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.354	-0.000
predicted_R	0.543	0.062
predicted_RBI	0.687	0.027
predicted_SLG	0.558	0.000
predicted_SO	0.881	-0.119

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.84), rates preserved: AVG=0.317 HR/AB=0.027

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	0.3158	0.3500	0.5263	0.3158	0.0000	0.2105	0.0526	0.1579
last_10	0.35	10	-	41.000	15.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	6.000	1.000	10.000	0.3659	0.3810	0.6585	0.3659	0.0488	0.1707	0.0244	0.2439
season	0.20	27	-	101.000	25.000	4.000	1.000	5.000	13.000	13.000	10.000	27.000	0.2475	0.3153	0.4554	0.2475	0.0495	0.1287	0.0990	0.2673

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3480
predicted_3B	0.1330
predicted_AB	3.8930
predicted_AVG	0.3197
predicted_BB	0.2030
predicted_H	1.2440
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1050
predicted_OBP	0.3539
predicted_R	0.5760
predicted_RBI	0.7020
predicted_SLG	0.5584
predicted_SO	0.8170

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1480	0.3480	0.2780	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0370	0.1330	0.0994	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7410	3.8930	3.8398	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3200	0.3197	0.3198	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3700	0.2030	0.2615	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1700	1.2440	1.2181	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1050	0.1033	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3540	0.3539	0.3539	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4810	0.5760	0.5427	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6600	0.7020	0.6873	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5580	0.5584	0.5583	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8170	0.8810	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.248

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260507_BAL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	694212
playerID	694212
playerName	Samuel Basallo
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	BAL
teamID	3

Pete Alonso (624413) · BATTER · 1B · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 39

All-history rows before 20260509: 39

System season_avg: 0.2260

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2260

Diff (system - data): -0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.256	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.256	0.000	-0.256	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.800	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.744	4.000	-0.744	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.226	0.250	-0.226	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.538	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.538	0.000	0.462	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.846	1.000	-0.846	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.205	1.000	-0.205	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.374	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.327	0.250	-0.077	0.000
predicted_R	0.692	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.692	1.000	-0.692	-1.000
predicted_RBI	1.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.564	1.000	-0.564	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.677	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.459	1.000	-0.459	-1.000
predicted_SO	1.051	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.051	1.000	0.949	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.256	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.800	-
predicted_AVG	0.290	-
predicted_BB	0.538	-
predicted_H	1.100	-
predicted_HR	0.360	-
predicted_OBP	0.374	-
predicted_R	0.692	-
predicted_RBI	1.090	-
predicted_SLG	0.677	-
predicted_SO	1.051	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.331	0.075
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.783	-0.017
predicted_AVG	0.290	0.000
predicted_BB	0.517	-0.021
predicted_H	1.097	-0.003
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.361	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.374	0.000
predicted_R	0.983	0.291
predicted_RBI	1.087	-0.003
predicted_SLG	0.677	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.002	-0.049

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.80), rates preserved: AVG=0.289 HR/AB=0.095

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	6.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	6.000	2.000	5.000	0.3000	0.3636	0.7000	0.3000	0.1000	0.3500	0.1000	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	11.000	4.000	4.000	10.000	13.000	6.000	9.000	0.3143	0.4146	0.7714	0.3143	0.1143	0.2857	0.1714	0.2571
season	0.20	39	-	146.000	33.000	10.000	8.000	22.000	27.000	21.000	41.000	0.2260	0.3274	0.4589	0.2260	0.0548	0.1507	0.1438	0.2808

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3720
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7740
predicted_AVG	0.2902
predicted_BB	0.5050
predicted_H	1.0950
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.3620
predicted_OBP	0.3742
predicted_R	1.1400
predicted_RBI	1.0850
predicted_SLG	0.6768
predicted_SO	0.9760

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2560	0.3720	0.3314	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8000	3.7740	3.7831	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2900	0.2902	0.2901	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5380	0.5050	0.5166	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1000	1.0950	1.0968	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3600	0.3620	0.3613	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3740	0.3742	0.3741	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6920	1.1400	0.9832	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	1.0900	1.0850	1.0868	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6770	0.6768	0.6769	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0510	0.9760	1.0022	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.226

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260508_OAK@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	624413
playerID	624413
playerName	Pete Alonso
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	BAL
teamID	3

Dylan Beavers (687637) · BATTER · RF · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 27

All-history rows before 20260509: 27

System season_avg: 0.2330

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2333

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.185	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.185	1.000	-0.185	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.333	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.333	3.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.254	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.233	0.667	-0.233	-0.667
predicted_BB	0.407	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.407	1.000	0.593	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.037	0.000	-0.037	0.000
predicted_H	0.780	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.778	2.000	-0.778	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.074	0.000	-0.074	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.361	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.314	0.750	-0.064	-0.500
predicted_R	0.407	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.407	0.000	-0.407	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.370	0.000	-0.370	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.393	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.356	1.000	-0.356	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.852	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.852	0.000	0.148	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.185	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.333	-
predicted_AVG	0.254	-
predicted_BB	0.407	-
predicted_H	0.780	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.361	-
predicted_R	0.407	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.393	-
predicted_SO	0.852	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.255	0.070
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.206	-0.127
predicted_AVG	0.254	0.000
predicted_BB	0.488	0.081
predicted_H	0.791	0.011
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.049	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.361	-0.000
predicted_R	0.404	-0.003
predicted_RBI	0.393	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.393	0.000
predicted_SO	0.848	-0.004

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.33), rates preserved: AVG=0.237 HR/AB=0.015

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	0.2667	0.3889	0.4000	0.2667	0.0000	0.1333	0.2000	0.2667
last_10	0.35	10	-	32.000	8.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	5.000	9.000	0.2500	0.3514	0.4062	0.2500	0.0312	0.1250	0.1562	0.2812
season	0.20	27	-	90.000	21.000	5.000	2.000	10.000	11.000	11.000	23.000	0.2333	0.3137	0.3556	0.2333	0.0222	0.1111	0.1222	0.2556

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2920
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.1370
predicted_AVG	0.2542
predicted_BB	0.5310
predicted_H	0.7970
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0480
predicted_OBP	0.3607
predicted_R	0.4020
predicted_RBI	0.3950
predicted_SLG	0.3933
predicted_SO	0.8450

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1850	0.2920	0.2545	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3330	3.1370	3.2056	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2540	0.2542	0.2541	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4070	0.5310	0.4876	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7800	0.7970	0.7911	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0480	0.0487	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3610	0.3607	0.3608	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4070	0.4020	0.4038	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.3950	0.3932	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3930	0.3933	0.3932	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8520	0.8450	0.8475	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.233

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260507_BAL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	687637
playerID	687637
playerName	Dylan Beavers
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	BAL
teamID	3

Gunnar Henderson (683002) · BATTER · SS · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 38

All-history rows before 20260509: 38

System season_avg: 0.1980

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1975

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.158	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.158	0.000	0.842	1.000
predicted_3B	0.026	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_AB	4.670	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	4.263	3.000	0.737	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.155	0.200	0.200	Hitting_AVG	0.198	0.000	0.002	0.200
predicted_BB	0.342	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.342	1.000	-0.342	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_H	0.720	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.842	0.000	0.158	1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.237	0.000	-0.237	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.197	0.200	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.260	0.250	-0.060	-0.050
predicted_R	0.605	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.605	0.000	0.395	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.280	3.000	3.000	Hitting_RBI	0.526	0.000	2.474	3.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.132	0.000	-0.132	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.215	0.400	0.400	Hitting_SLG	0.414	0.000	-0.014	0.400
predicted_SO	1.421	3.000	3.000	Hitting_SO	1.421	0.000	1.579	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.158	-
predicted_3B	0.026	-
predicted_AB	4.670	-
predicted_AVG	0.155	-
predicted_BB	0.342	-
predicted_H	0.720	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.197	-
predicted_R	0.605	-
predicted_RBI	0.280	-
predicted_SLG	0.215	-
predicted_SO	1.421	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.123	-0.035
predicted_3B	0.012	-0.014
predicted_AB	4.513	-0.157
predicted_AVG	0.155	0.000
predicted_BB	0.269	-0.073
predicted_H	0.699	-0.021
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.049	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.197	0.000
predicted_R	0.387	-0.218
predicted_RBI	0.272	-0.008
predicted_SLG	0.215	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.331	-0.090

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 5 (raw=4.67), rates preserved: AVG=0.150 HR/AB=0.011

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	5.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, BvP AVG=0.429)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	3.000	3.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 4.670

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	23.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	0.1304	0.1667	0.1304	0.1304	0.0000	0.0435	0.0435	0.2609
last_10	0.35	10	-	43.000	7.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	13.000	0.1628	0.2000	0.2093	0.1628	0.0000	0.0465	0.0465	0.3023
season	0.20	38	-	162.000	32.000	6.000	1.000	9.000	20.000	23.000	13.000	54.000	0.1975	0.2599	0.4136	0.1975	0.0556	0.1235	0.0803	0.3333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1050
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	4.4280
predicted_AVG	0.1552
predicted_BB	0.2300
predicted_H	0.6870
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0490
predicted_OBP	0.1970
predicted_R	0.2700
predicted_RBI	0.2680
predicted_SLG	0.2147
predicted_SO	1.2830

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1580	0.1050	0.1235	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0260	0.0050	0.0123	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.6700	4.4280	4.5127	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1550	0.1552	0.1551	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3420	0.2300	0.2692	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7200	0.6870	0.6986	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0490	0.0494	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1970	0.1970	0.1970	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6050	0.2700	0.3872	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2800	0.2680	0.2722	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2150	0.2147	0.2148	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4210	1.2830	1.3313	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	3
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.198

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260508_OAK@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	683002
playerID	683002
playerName	Gunnar Henderson
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	BAL
teamID	3

Leody Taveras (665750) · BATTER · CF · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 24

All-history rows before 20260509: 24

System season_avg: 0.2750

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2750

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.208	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.208	0.000	-0.208	0.000
predicted_3B	0.042	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.042	0.000	-0.042	0.000
predicted_AB	3.333	2.000	2.000	Hitting_AB	3.333	3.000	-1.333	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.223	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.275	0.000	-0.275	0.000
predicted_BB	0.667	2.000	2.000	Hitting_BB	0.667	1.000	1.333	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.042	0.000	-0.042	0.000
predicted_H	0.700	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.917	0.000	-0.917	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.362	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.396	0.250	0.104	0.250
predicted_R	0.458	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.458	0.000	0.542	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.470	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.750	0.000	-0.750	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.042	0.000	-0.042	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.349	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.438	0.000	-0.438	0.000
predicted_SO	0.708	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.708	2.000	-0.708	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.208	-
predicted_3B	0.042	-
predicted_AB	3.333	-
predicted_AVG	0.223	-
predicted_BB	0.667	-
predicted_H	0.700	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.362	-
predicted_R	0.458	-
predicted_RBI	0.470	-
predicted_SLG	0.349	-
predicted_SO	0.708	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.262	0.054
predicted_3B	0.043	0.001
predicted_AB	3.368	0.035
predicted_AVG	0.223	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.713	0.046
predicted_H	0.735	0.035
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.018	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.362	-0.000
predicted_R	0.324	-0.134
predicted_RBI	0.493	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.349	0.000
predicted_SO	0.814	0.106

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.37), rates preserved: AVG=0.218 HR/AB=0.005

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, BvP AVG=0.400)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-1.000
BB	2.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 24

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	5.000	0.2353	0.3810	0.3529	0.2353	0.0000	0.1177	0.2353	0.2941
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	5.000	2.000	7.000	8.000	0.1765	0.3171	0.2941	0.1765	0.0000	0.1471	0.2059	0.2353
season	0.20	24	-	80.000	22.000	5.000	1.000	2.000	18.000	11.000	16.000	17.000	0.2750	0.3958	0.4375	0.2750	0.0250	0.2250	0.2000	0.2125

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2910
predicted_3B	0.0430
predicted_AB	3.3870
predicted_AVG	0.2227
predicted_BB	0.7380
predicted_H	0.7540
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0170
predicted_OBP	0.3616
predicted_R	0.2520
predicted_RBI	0.5060
predicted_SLG	0.3492
predicted_SO	0.8710

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2080	0.2910	0.2619	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0420	0.0430	0.0427	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3330	3.3870	3.3681	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2230	0.2227	0.2228	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6670	0.7380	0.7131	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7000	0.7540	0.7351	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0170	0.0181	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3620	0.3616	0.3617	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4580	0.2520	0.3241	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4700	0.5060	0.4934	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3490	0.3492	0.3491	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7080	0.8710	0.8139	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	24
Season rows before report date	24
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	24
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.275

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260508_OAK@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	665750
playerID	665750
playerName	Leody Taveras
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	BAL
teamID	3

Coby Mayo (691723) · BATTER · 3B · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 29

All-history rows before 20260509: 29

System season_avg: 0.1650

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1649

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.103	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.103	0.000	-0.103	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.345	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.345	2.000	-0.345	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.158	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.165	0.000	-0.165	0.000
predicted_BB	0.276	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.276	0.000	-0.276	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.460	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.552	0.000	-0.552	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.103	0.000	-0.103	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.170	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.229	0.000	0.021	0.250
predicted_R	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.310	0.000	-0.310	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.379	0.000	-0.379	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.034	0.000	-0.034	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.194	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.289	0.000	-0.289	0.000
predicted_SO	1.069	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.069	1.000	-1.069	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.103	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.345	-
predicted_AVG	0.158	-
predicted_BB	0.276	-
predicted_H	0.460	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.170	-
predicted_R	0.310	-
predicted_RBI	0.070	-
predicted_SLG	0.194	-
predicted_SO	1.069	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.073	-0.030
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.305	-0.040
predicted_AVG	0.158	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.132	-0.144
predicted_H	0.497	0.037
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.170	0.000
predicted_R	0.229	-0.081
predicted_RBI	0.073	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.194	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.034	-0.035

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.35), rates preserved: AVG=0.149 HR/AB=0.006

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	5.000	0.1765	0.1765	0.1765	0.1765	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.2941
last_10	0.35	10	-	31.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	10.000	0.1290	0.1290	0.1613	0.1290	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.3226
season	0.20	29	-	97.000	16.000	3.000	3.000	11.000	9.000	8.000	31.000	0.1649	0.2286	0.2887	0.1650	0.0309	0.1134	0.0825	0.3196

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0570
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.2840
predicted_AVG	0.1576
predicted_BB	0.0540
predicted_H	0.5170
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0200
predicted_OBP	0.1703
predicted_R	0.1850
predicted_RBI	0.0740
predicted_SLG	0.1936
predicted_SO	1.0150

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1030	0.0570	0.0731	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3450	3.2840	3.3053	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1580	0.1576	0.1577	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2760	0.0540	0.1317	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4600	0.5170	0.4970	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0200	0.0200	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1700	0.1703	0.1702	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3100	0.1850	0.2288	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0700	0.0740	0.0726	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1940	0.1936	0.1937	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0690	1.0150	1.0339	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.165

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260508_OAK@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	691723
playerID	691723
playerName	Coby Mayo
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	BAL
teamID	3

Jeremiah Jackson (669236) · BATTER · 2B · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 33

All-history rows before 20260509: 33

System season_avg: 0.2460

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2459

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.091	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.091	0.000	0.909	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.697	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.697	4.000	-0.697	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.177	0.667	0.667	Hitting_AVG	0.246	0.000	0.421	0.667
predicted_BB	0.091	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_H	0.550	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.909	0.000	1.091	2.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.208	0.750	0.750	Hitting_OBP	0.268	0.000	0.482	0.750
predicted_R	0.303	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.303	0.000	0.697	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.727	0.000	-0.727	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.249	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SLG	0.418	0.000	0.582	1.000
predicted_SO	0.848	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.848	2.000	-0.848	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.091	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.697	-
predicted_AVG	0.177	-
predicted_BB	0.091	-
predicted_H	0.550	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.208	-
predicted_R	0.303	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.249	-
predicted_SO	0.848	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.067	-0.024
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.728	0.030
predicted_AVG	0.177	0.000
predicted_BB	0.125	0.034
predicted_H	0.624	0.074
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.068	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.208	0.000
predicted_R	0.169	-0.134
predicted_RBI	0.305	0.035
predicted_SLG	0.249	0.000
predicted_SO	0.904	0.056

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.73), rates preserved: AVG=0.167 HR/AB=0.018

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	0.1579	0.2000	0.1579	0.1579	0.0000	0.0000	0.0526	0.2632
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	9.000	0.1622	0.1842	0.2703	0.1622	0.0270	0.1351	0.0270	0.2432
season	0.20	33	-	122.000	30.000	3.000	6.000	24.000	10.000	3.000	28.000	0.2459	0.2677	0.4180	0.2459	0.0492	0.1967	0.0246	0.2295

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0540
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7440
predicted_AVG	0.1770
predicted_BB	0.1430
predicted_H	0.6630
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0720
predicted_OBP	0.2080
predicted_R	0.0970
predicted_RBI	0.3240
predicted_SLG	0.2493
predicted_SO	0.9340

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0910	0.0540	0.0669	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6970	3.7440	3.7275	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1770	0.1770	0.1770	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0910	0.1430	0.1248	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5500	0.6630	0.6235	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0720	0.0678	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2080	0.2080	0.2080	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3030	0.0970	0.1691	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.3240	0.3051	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2490	0.2493	0.2492	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8480	0.9340	0.9039	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.246

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260508_OAK@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	669236
playerID	669236
playerName	Jeremiah Jackson
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	BAL
teamID	3

Shane Baz (669358) · PITCHER · Starter · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 7

All-history rows before 20260509: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	4.000	4.000	-	Pitching_ER	3.143	5.000	0.857	-1.000
predicted_IP	3.200	3.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.400	5.200	-2.200	-2.000
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	-	Pitching_SO	4.714	4.000	0.286	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 3.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	28.200	17.000	34.000	13.000	24.000	4.000	5.3372	1.6395	0.5930	1.1861	0.4535	0.8372	0.1395
last_10	0.35	7	39.200	22.000	45.000	16.000	33.000	4.000	4.9916	1.5378	0.5546	1.1344	0.4034	0.8319	0.1008
season	0.20	7	39.200	22.000	45.000	16.000	33.000	4.000	4.9916	1.5378	0.5546	1.1344	0.4034	0.8319	0.1008

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.4140
predicted_ER	3.2410
predicted_ERA	5.1471
predicted_H	6.5600
predicted_HR	0.6700
predicted_IP	5.2000
predicted_SO	4.7280
predicted_WHIP	1.5836

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	2.4140	2.2691	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	4.0000	3.2410	3.5067	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.1471	5.1471	form_only
predicted_H	8.0000	6.5600	7.0640	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.6700	0.7855	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	3.2000	5.2000	5.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	4.7280	4.8232	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5836	1.5836	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	3.2
H	8
R	4
ER	4
BB	2
SO	5
HR	1
BF	22
Pitches	98

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	5
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	26
Pitching_ER	5
Pitching_ERA	4.99
Pitching_Flyouts	5
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	5
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.2
Pitching_Pitches	96
Pitching_R	6
Pitching_SO	4
Pitching_Strikes	54
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_BAL@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	669358
playerID	669358
playerName	Shane Baz
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	BAL
teamID	3

Yennier Cano (666974) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 18

All-history rows before 20260509: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.111	0.000	0.889	1.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.622	2.000	0.578	-0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.611	0.000	0.389	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	0.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.0000	0.1875	0.0000	0.1875	0.0000	0.3750	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.200	1.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	1.0385	0.4615	0.1154	0.3462	0.1154	0.4615	0.1154
season	0.20	18	14.000	2.000	6.000	1.000	11.000	1.000	1.2857	0.5000	0.1429	0.4286	0.0714	0.7857	0.0714

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.0510
predicted_ER	0.0640
predicted_ERA	0.6206
predicted_H	0.2720
predicted_HR	0.0510
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.4550
predicted_WHIP	0.3459

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0510	0.0331	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.0640	0.3916	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.6206	0.6206	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.2720	0.8768	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0510	0.0331	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.0000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.4550	0.6458	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.3459	0.3459	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.29
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	23
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	16
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_BAL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	666974
playerID	666974
playerName	Yennier Cano
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BAL
teamID	3

Andrew Kittredge (552640) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 6

All-history rows before 20260509: 6

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.167	0.000	-0.167	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.583	0.200	0.417	0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.200	7.000	11.000	2.000	6.000	1.000	17.1818	3.5455	1.9091	3.0000	0.5454	1.6364	0.2727
last_10	0.35	6	4.200	7.000	11.000	2.000	6.000	1.000	13.5000	2.7857	1.5000	2.3571	0.4286	1.2857	0.2143
season	0.20	6	4.200	7.000	11.000	2.000	6.000	1.000	13.5000	2.7857	1.5000	2.3571	0.4286	1.2857	0.2143

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3210
predicted_ER	1.1230
predicted_ERA	15.1568
predicted_H	1.7640
predicted_HR	0.1600
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.9620
predicted_WHIP	3.1276

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3210	0.2087	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	1.1230	1.0799	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	15.1568	15.1568	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.7640	1.1466	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1600	0.1040	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9620	0.9753	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	3.1276	3.1276	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	13.50
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_BAL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	552640
playerID	552640
playerName	Andrew Kittredge
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BAL
teamID	3

Dietrich Enns (608650) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 6

All-history rows before 20260509: 6

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.100	2.000	-0.100	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.500	1.000	-1.500	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.100	1.000	3.000	6.000	8.000	1.4211	1.4211	0.1579	0.4737	0.9474	1.2632
last_10	0.35	6	8.000	2.000	4.000	7.000	9.000	2.2500	1.3750	0.2500	0.5000	0.8750	1.1250
season	0.20	6	8.000	2.000	4.000	7.000	9.000	2.2500	1.3750	0.2500	0.5000	0.8750	1.1250

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.2100
predicted_ER	0.2780
predicted_ERA	1.8770
predicted_H	0.6510
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.5830
predicted_WHIP	1.3957

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	1.2100	1.1365	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2780	0.1807	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.8770	1.8770	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6510	0.4232	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.1000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.5830	1.0290	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3957	1.3957	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.25
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	19
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	14
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_BAL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	608650
playerID	608650
playerName	Dietrich Enns
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BAL
teamID	3

Keegan Akin (669211) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 6

All-history rows before 20260509: 6

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.167	0.000	-0.167	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.867	1.000	0.133	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.833	1.000	0.167	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	1.000	5.000	3.000	1.000	1.9286	1.0714	0.2143	1.0714	0.6429	0.2143
last_10	0.35	6	5.200	7.000	11.000	5.000	2.000	11.1176	1.9412	1.2353	1.9412	0.8823	0.3529
season	0.20	6	5.200	7.000	11.000	5.000	2.000	11.1176	1.9412	1.2353	1.9412	0.8823	0.3529

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.0000
predicted_ER	0.7760
predicted_ERA	6.9825
predicted_H	1.5500
predicted_HR	0.2910
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.7750
predicted_WHIP	1.5498

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.0000	0.7000	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.7760	0.8544	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	6.9825	6.9825	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.5500	1.3575	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2910	0.1891	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.7750	0.8538	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5498	1.5498	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	2
SO	1
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	11.12
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	24
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	17
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_BAL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	669211
playerID	669211
playerName	Keegan Akin
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BAL
teamID	3

Rico Garcia (670329) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 18

All-history rows before 20260509: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.867	1.000	-0.667	-0.800
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.056	1.000	-1.056	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	0.000	0.0000	0.5000	0.0000	0.0000	0.5000	1.2500	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	1.000	1.000	3.000	11.000	1.000	0.9643	0.4286	0.1071	0.1071	0.3214	1.1786	0.1071
season	0.20	18	17.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	19.000	1.000	0.5294	0.4118	0.0588	0.0588	0.3529	1.1177	0.0588

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3470
predicted_ER	0.0420
predicted_ERA	0.4434
predicted_H	0.0420
predicted_HR	0.0420
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0190
predicted_WHIP	0.4574

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3470	0.2256	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.0420	0.0273	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.4434	0.4434	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.0420	0.0273	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0420	0.0273	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.0190	0.6623	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.4574	0.4574	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	10

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.53
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_BAL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	670329
playerID	670329
playerName	Rico Garcia
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BAL
teamID	3

20260509_PIT@SF

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 0, "confidence": 0.7659674416566848, "home_win_probability": 0.23403255834331516, "away_win_probability": 0.7659674416566848, "predicted_score_text": "PIT 6 - 0 SF", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to final winner probability with starter-quality caps.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 1, "predicted_score_text": "PIT 5 - 1 SF", "confidence": 0.7659674416566848, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score", "final_prediction_synced": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 1, "score_text": "PIT 5 - 1 SF", "winner": "PIT"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 0, "score_text": "PIT 6 - 0 SF", "winner": "PIT"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 1, "home_run_delta": -1, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"}}

Away Team: PIT

Nick Gonzales (693304) · BATTER · 3B · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 32

All-history rows before 20260509: 32

System season_avg: 0.3110

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3115

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.156	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.156	0.000	-0.156	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.812	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.812	1.000	-0.812	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.229	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.311	0.000	0.022	0.333
predicted_BB	0.312	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.312	3.000	0.688	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.031	0.000	-0.031	0.000
predicted_H	0.850	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.188	0.000	-0.188	1.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.380	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.378	0.750	0.122	-0.250
predicted_R	0.438	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.438	0.000	0.562	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.460	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.531	0.000	-0.531	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.094	1.000	-0.094	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.247	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.352	0.000	-0.019	0.333
predicted_SO	0.781	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.781	0.000	-0.781	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.156	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.812	-
predicted_AVG	0.229	-
predicted_BB	0.312	-
predicted_H	0.850	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.380	-
predicted_R	0.438	-
predicted_RBI	0.460	-
predicted_SLG	0.247	-
predicted_SO	0.781	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.095	-0.061
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.562	-0.250
predicted_AVG	0.229	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.530	0.218
predicted_H	0.806	-0.043
predicted_HBP	0.182	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.380	0.000
predicted_R	0.356	-0.082
predicted_RBI	0.437	-0.023
predicted_SLG	0.247	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.771	-0.010

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.81), rates preserved: AVG=0.212 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.812

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	0.1250	0.3333	0.1250	0.1250	0.1250	0.2500	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	11.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	6.000	7.000	0.3143	0.4419	0.3429	0.3143	0.1143	0.1714	0.2000
season	0.20	32	-	122.000	38.000	5.000	17.000	14.000	10.000	25.000	0.3115	0.3778	0.3525	0.3115	0.1393	0.0820	0.2049

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0620
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.4280
predicted_AVG	0.2286
predicted_BB	0.6470
predicted_H	0.7830
predicted_HBP	0.1820
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.3802
predicted_R	0.3120
predicted_RBI	0.4250
predicted_SLG	0.2468
predicted_SO	0.7660

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1560	0.0620	0.0949	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8120	3.4280	3.5624	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2290	0.2286	0.2287	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3120	0.6470	0.5298	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8500	0.7830	0.8065	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1820	0.1820	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3800	0.3802	0.3801	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4380	0.3120	0.3561	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4600	0.4250	0.4373	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2470	0.2468	0.2469	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7810	0.7660	0.7712	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.311

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	1
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	3
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B-3B
gameID	20260508_PIT@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	693304
playerID	693304
playerName	Nick Gonzales
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	PIT
teamID	22

Oneil Cruz (665833) · BATTER · CF · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 36

All-history rows before 20260509: 36

System season_avg: 0.2480

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2484

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	0.833	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.650	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	4.250	3.000	0.750	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.200	0.400	0.400	Hitting_AVG	0.248	0.333	0.152	0.067
predicted_BB	0.361	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.361	1.000	-0.361	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_H	0.930	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	1.056	1.000	0.944	1.000
predicted_HR	0.090	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.250	0.000	0.750	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.296	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.315	0.500	0.085	-0.100
predicted_R	0.722	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.722	1.000	0.278	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	3.000	3.000	Hitting_RBI	0.778	0.000	2.222	3.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.361	0.000	-0.361	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.276	1.200	1.200	Hitting_SLG	0.464	0.333	0.736	0.867
predicted_SO	1.556	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.556	1.000	-0.556	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.650	-
predicted_AVG	0.200	-
predicted_BB	0.361	-
predicted_H	0.930	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.296	-
predicted_R	0.722	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.276	-
predicted_SO	1.556	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.100	-0.067
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.189	-0.462
predicted_AVG	0.200	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.383	0.022
predicted_H	0.837	-0.093
predicted_HBP	0.142	-
predicted_HR	0.083	-0.007
predicted_OBP	0.296	-0.000
predicted_R	0.553	-0.169
predicted_RBI	0.397	-0.043
predicted_SLG	0.276	0.000
predicted_SO	1.287	-0.269

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 5 (raw=4.65), rates preserved: AVG=0.180 HR/AB=0.018

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	5.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	3.000	3.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 4.650

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	0.1667	0.2857	0.1667	0.1667	0.0000	0.0556	0.1111	0.2222
last_10	0.35	10	-	42.000	9.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	7.000	4.000	14.000	0.2143	0.2979	0.3095	0.2143	0.0238	0.0952	0.0952	0.3333
season	0.20	36	-	153.000	38.000	6.000	9.000	28.000	26.000	13.000	56.000	0.2484	0.3155	0.4641	0.2484	0.0588	0.1830	0.0850	0.3660

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0640
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.9400
predicted_AVG	0.1997
predicted_BB	0.3950
predicted_H	0.7870
predicted_HBP	0.1420
predicted_HR	0.0790
predicted_OBP	0.2959
predicted_R	0.4620
predicted_RBI	0.3740
predicted_SLG	0.2762
predicted_SO	1.1420

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.0640	0.1001	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.6500	3.9400	4.1885	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2000	0.1997	0.1998	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3610	0.3950	0.3831	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9300	0.7870	0.8371	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1420	0.1420	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.0790	0.0829	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2960	0.2959	0.2959	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7220	0.4620	0.5530	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.3740	0.3971	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2760	0.2762	0.2761	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.5560	1.1420	1.2869	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	3
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.248

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	1
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260508_PIT@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	665833
playerID	665833
playerName	Oneil Cruz
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	PIT
teamID	22

Brandon Lowe (664040) · BATTER · 2B · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 32

All-history rows before 20260509: 32

System season_avg: 0.2660

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2661

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.030	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.875	5.000	-0.875	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.322	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.266	0.600	-0.266	-0.600
predicted_BB	0.594	2.000	2.000	Hitting_BB	0.594	0.000	1.406	2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.031	3.000	-1.031	-3.000
predicted_HR	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.312	1.000	-0.312	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.458	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.368	0.600	0.032	-0.200
predicted_R	0.688	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.688	2.000	0.312	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.630	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.719	1.000	-0.719	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.662	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.573	1.200	-0.573	-1.200
predicted_SO	0.938	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.938	0.000	-0.938	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.030	-
predicted_AVG	0.322	-
predicted_BB	0.594	-
predicted_H	1.300	-
predicted_HR	0.400	-
predicted_OBP	0.458	-
predicted_R	0.688	-
predicted_RBI	0.630	-
predicted_SLG	0.662	-
predicted_SO	0.938	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.186	-0.064
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.705	-0.325
predicted_AVG	0.322	0.000
predicted_BB	0.803	0.209
predicted_H	1.194	-0.106
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.367	-0.033
predicted_OBP	0.458	0.000
predicted_R	0.870	0.182
predicted_RBI	0.579	-0.051
predicted_SLG	0.662	0.000
predicted_SO	0.638	-0.300

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.03), rates preserved: AVG=0.296 HR/AB=0.091

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	2.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 4.030

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	6.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	6.000	6.000	1.000	0.3529	0.5217	0.7059	0.3529	0.1177	0.1765	0.3529	0.0588
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	11.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	8.000	7.000	6.000	0.3143	0.4286	0.6571	0.3143	0.0857	0.1143	0.2000	0.1714
season	0.20	32	-	124.000	33.000	8.000	10.000	23.000	22.000	19.000	30.000	0.2661	0.3681	0.5726	0.2661	0.0806	0.1855	0.1532	0.2419

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1510
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.5300
predicted_AVG	0.3220
predicted_BB	0.9160
predicted_H	1.1370
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.3500
predicted_OBP	0.4584
predicted_R	0.9680
predicted_RBI	0.5520
predicted_SLG	0.6622
predicted_SO	0.4760

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.1510	0.1856	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0300	3.5300	3.7050	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3220	0.3220	0.3220	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5940	0.9160	0.8033	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.3000	1.1370	1.1940	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.4000	0.3500	0.3675	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4580	0.4584	0.4583	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6880	0.9680	0.8700	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6300	0.5520	0.5793	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6620	0.6622	0.6621	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9380	0.4760	0.6377	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.266

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.6
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	6
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260507_PIT@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	664040
playerID	664040
playerName	Brandon Lowe
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	PIT
teamID	22

Ryan O'Hearn (656811) · BATTER · RF · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 35

All-history rows before 20260509: 35

System season_avg: 0.2920

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2923

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.770	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.714	4.000	0.286	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.221	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.292	0.250	-0.042	0.000
predicted_BB	0.486	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.486	0.000	-0.486	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.830	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.086	1.000	-0.086	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.143	0.000	0.857	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.301	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.373	0.250	-0.123	0.000
predicted_R	0.571	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.571	0.000	0.429	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.860	3.000	3.000	Hitting_RBI	0.714	1.000	2.286	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.315	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SLG	0.446	0.250	0.554	0.750
predicted_SO	0.857	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.857	2.000	1.143	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.770	-
predicted_AVG	0.221	-
predicted_BB	0.486	-
predicted_H	0.830	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.301	-
predicted_R	0.571	-
predicted_RBI	0.860	-
predicted_SLG	0.315	-
predicted_SO	0.857	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.151	0.009
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.662	-0.108
predicted_AVG	0.221	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.442	-0.044
predicted_H	0.807	-0.023
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.061	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.301	0.000
predicted_R	0.587	0.016
predicted_RBI	0.833	-0.027
predicted_SLG	0.315	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.079	0.222

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.77), rates preserved: AVG=0.214 HR/AB=0.016

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	3.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	3.000	2.000	7.000	0.1765	0.2632	0.2353	0.1765	0.0000	0.2353	0.1177	0.4118
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	9.000	1.000	1.000	9.000	6.000	4.000	11.000	0.2368	0.3095	0.3421	0.2368	0.0263	0.2368	0.1053	0.2895
season	0.20	35	-	130.000	38.000	5.000	5.000	25.000	20.000	17.000	30.000	0.2923	0.3733	0.4462	0.2923	0.0385	0.1923	0.1308	0.2308

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1560
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.6030
predicted_AVG	0.2208
predicted_BB	0.4180
predicted_H	0.7950
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0610
predicted_OBP	0.3014
predicted_R	0.5960
predicted_RBI	0.8190
predicted_SLG	0.3149
predicted_SO	1.1990

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.1560	0.1515	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7700	3.6030	3.6615	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2210	0.2208	0.2209	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4860	0.4180	0.4418	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8300	0.7950	0.8073	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0610	0.0606	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3010	0.3014	0.3013	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5710	0.5960	0.5873	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.8600	0.8190	0.8334	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3150	0.3149	0.3149	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8570	1.1990	1.0793	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	3
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.292

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260507_PIT@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	656811
playerID	656811
playerName	Ryan O'Hearn
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	PIT
teamID	22

Joey Bart (663698) · BATTER · C · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 16

All-history rows before 20260509: 16

System season_avg: 0.2160

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2157

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.062	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.188	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.188	3.000	0.812	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.289	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.216	0.000	-0.216	0.000
predicted_BB	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.770	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.688	0.000	-0.688	0.000
predicted_HR	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.259	0.000	-0.259	0.000
predicted_R	0.375	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.188	0.000	-0.188	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.480	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.353	0.000	-0.353	0.000
predicted_SO	1.188	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.188	2.000	0.812	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.062	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.188	-
predicted_AVG	0.289	-
predicted_BB	0.125	-
predicted_H	0.770	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.375	-
predicted_RBI	0.170	-
predicted_SLG	0.480	-
predicted_SO	1.188	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.052	-0.010
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.159	-0.029
predicted_AVG	0.289	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.081	-0.044
predicted_H	0.859	0.089
predicted_HBP	0.012	-
predicted_HR	0.177	0.017
predicted_OBP	0.305	-0.000
predicted_R	0.410	0.035
predicted_RBI	0.188	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.480	0.000
predicted_SO	1.030	-0.158

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.19), rates preserved: AVG=0.269 HR/AB=0.055

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	0.3333	0.3333	0.5333	0.3333	0.0667	0.0667	0.0000	0.2667
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	9.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	1.000	10.000	0.2727	0.2941	0.4848	0.2727	0.0606	0.0606	0.0303	0.3030
season	0.20	16	-	51.000	11.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	6.000	2.000	19.000	0.2157	0.2593	0.3529	0.2157	0.0392	0.0588	0.0392	0.3725

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0460
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.1430
predicted_AVG	0.2886
predicted_BB	0.0580
predicted_H	0.9070
predicted_HBP	0.0120
predicted_HR	0.1860
predicted_OBP	0.3048
predicted_R	0.4290
predicted_RBI	0.1980
predicted_SLG	0.4802
predicted_SO	0.9450

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0620	0.0460	0.0516	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1880	3.1430	3.1587	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2890	0.2886	0.2887	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1250	0.0580	0.0814	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7700	0.9070	0.8590	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0120	0.0120	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.1860	0.1769	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3048	0.3049	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3750	0.4290	0.4101	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1700	0.1980	0.1882	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4800	0.4802	0.4801	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1880	0.9450	1.0300	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.216

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260508_PIT@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	663698
playerID	663698
playerName	Joey Bart
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	PIT
teamID	22

Bryan Reynolds (668804) · BATTER · LF · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 38

All-history rows before 20260509: 38

System season_avg: 0.2520

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2519

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.132	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.132	0.000	-0.132	0.000
predicted_3B	0.053	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_AB	3.680	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.553	3.000	-0.553	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.210	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.252	0.000	-0.252	0.000
predicted_BB	0.842	2.000	2.000	Hitting_BB	0.842	1.000	1.158	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.770	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.895	0.000	-0.895	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.105	0.000	-0.105	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.374	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.400	0.250	0.000	0.150
predicted_R	0.711	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.711	0.000	-0.711	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.579	0.000	-0.579	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.323	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.407	0.000	-0.407	0.000
predicted_SO	1.132	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.132	0.000	-0.132	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.132	-
predicted_3B	0.053	-
predicted_AB	3.680	-
predicted_AVG	0.210	-
predicted_BB	0.842	-
predicted_H	0.770	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.374	-
predicted_R	0.711	-
predicted_RBI	0.310	-
predicted_SLG	0.323	-
predicted_SO	1.132	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.129	-0.003
predicted_3B	0.047	-0.006
predicted_AB	3.460	-0.220
predicted_AVG	0.210	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.865	0.023
predicted_H	0.725	-0.045
predicted_HBP	0.010	-
predicted_HR	0.056	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.374	0.000
predicted_R	0.598	-0.113
predicted_RBI	0.291	-0.019
predicted_SLG	0.323	0.000
predicted_SO	1.002	-0.130

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.68), rates preserved: AVG=0.197 HR/AB=0.015

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	2.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	0.1250	0.3000	0.1250	0.1250	0.0000	0.0000	0.2500	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	10.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	9.000	10.000	10.000	0.2941	0.4545	0.5294	0.2941	0.0294	0.1471	0.2941	0.2941
season	0.20	38	-	135.000	34.000	5.000	2.000	4.000	22.000	27.000	32.000	43.000	0.2519	0.4000	0.4074	0.2519	0.0296	0.1630	0.2370	0.3185

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1280
predicted_3B	0.0440
predicted_AB	3.3410
predicted_AVG	0.2096
predicted_BB	0.8780
predicted_H	0.7000
predicted_HBP	0.0100
predicted_HR	0.0540
predicted_OBP	0.3741
predicted_R	0.5370
predicted_RBI	0.2810
predicted_SLG	0.3230
predicted_SO	0.9320

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1320	0.1280	0.1294	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0530	0.0440	0.0471	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6800	3.3410	3.4596	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2100	0.2096	0.2097	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.8420	0.8780	0.8654	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7700	0.7000	0.7245	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0100	0.0100	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0540	0.0561	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3740	0.3741	0.3741	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7110	0.5370	0.5979	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3100	0.2810	0.2912	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3230	0.3230	0.3230	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1320	0.9320	1.0020	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.252

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260508_PIT@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	668804
playerID	668804
playerName	Bryan Reynolds
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	PIT
teamID	22

Spencer Horwitz (687462) · BATTER · 1B · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 30

All-history rows before 20260509: 30

System season_avg: 0.2470

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2474

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_3B	0.033	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.033	0.000	-0.033	0.000
predicted_AB	3.233	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.233	3.000	-0.233	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.227	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.247	0.333	0.086	0.000
predicted_BB	0.633	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.633	1.000	0.367	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.680	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.800	1.000	0.200	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.351	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.370	0.500	0.130	0.000
predicted_R	0.300	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.300	0.000	0.700	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.610	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.433	1.000	-0.433	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.383	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.361	0.333	-0.027	0.000
predicted_SO	0.467	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.467	0.000	-0.467	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.100	-
predicted_3B	0.033	-
predicted_AB	3.233	-
predicted_AVG	0.227	-
predicted_BB	0.633	-
predicted_H	0.680	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.351	-
predicted_R	0.300	-
predicted_RBI	0.610	-
predicted_SLG	0.383	-
predicted_SO	0.467	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.129	0.029
predicted_3B	0.096	0.063
predicted_AB	3.424	0.191
predicted_AVG	0.227	0.000
predicted_BB	0.675	0.042
predicted_H	0.759	0.079
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.046	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.351	0.000
predicted_R	0.170	-0.130
predicted_RBI	0.682	0.072
predicted_SLG	0.383	0.000
predicted_SO	0.332	-0.135

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.42), rates preserved: AVG=0.222 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	0.000	4.000	1.000	0.2222	0.3636	0.3889	0.2222	0.0000	0.2222	0.2222	0.0556
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	8.000	1.000	6.000	2.000	0.2222	0.3256	0.3889	0.2222	0.0278	0.2222	0.1667	0.0556
season	0.20	30	-	97.000	24.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	13.000	9.000	19.000	14.000	0.2474	0.3697	0.3608	0.2474	0.0206	0.1340	0.1959	0.1443

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1440
predicted_3B	0.1300
predicted_AB	3.5270
predicted_AVG	0.2272
predicted_BB	0.6970
predicted_H	0.8010
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.0490
predicted_OBP	0.3515
predicted_R	0.1000
predicted_RBI	0.7210
predicted_SLG	0.3833
predicted_SO	0.2590

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1000	0.1440	0.1286	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0330	0.1300	0.0961	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2330	3.5270	3.4241	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2270	0.2272	0.2271	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6330	0.6970	0.6746	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6800	0.8010	0.7587	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0490	0.0459	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3510	0.3515	0.3513	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3000	0.1000	0.1700	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6100	0.7210	0.6822	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3830	0.3833	0.3832	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4670	0.2590	0.3318	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.247

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260507_PIT@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	687462
playerID	687462
playerName	Spencer Horwitz
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	PIT
teamID	22

Marcell Ozuna (542303) · BATTER · DH · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 30

All-history rows before 20260509: 30

System season_avg: 0.2000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	3.000	0.000	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.302	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.200	0.667	-0.200	-0.667
predicted_BB	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.800	2.000	-0.800	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.133	1.000	-0.133	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.379	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.267	0.750	-0.267	-0.750
predicted_R	0.367	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.367	1.000	-0.367	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.660	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.467	1.000	-0.467	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.489	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.325	1.667	-0.325	-1.667
predicted_SO	1.067	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.067	0.000	0.933	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.100	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.302	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	1.140	-
predicted_HR	0.190	-
predicted_OBP	0.379	-
predicted_R	0.367	-
predicted_RBI	0.660	-
predicted_SLG	0.489	-
predicted_SO	1.067	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.131	0.031
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.883	-0.117
predicted_AVG	0.302	0.000
predicted_BB	0.431	0.098
predicted_H	1.150	0.010
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.189	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.379	0.000
predicted_R	0.531	0.164
predicted_RBI	0.668	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.489	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.888	-0.179

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.288 HR/AB=0.047

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	3.000	3.000	0.3889	0.4762	0.6111	0.3889	0.0556	0.2222	0.1667	0.1667
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	10.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	5.000	4.000	9.000	0.2500	0.3182	0.4250	0.2500	0.0500	0.1500	0.1000	0.2250
season	0.20	30	-	120.000	24.000	3.000	4.000	14.000	11.000	10.000	32.000	0.2000	0.2672	0.3250	0.2000	0.0333	0.1167	0.0833	0.2667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1480
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.8200
predicted_AVG	0.3025
predicted_BB	0.4840
predicted_H	1.1560
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.1880
predicted_OBP	0.3791
predicted_R	0.6190
predicted_RBI	0.6720
predicted_SLG	0.4887
predicted_SO	0.7910

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1000	0.1480	0.1312	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0000	3.8200	3.8830	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3020	0.3025	0.3023	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.4840	0.4311	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1400	1.1560	1.1504	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1900	0.1880	0.1887	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3790	0.3791	0.3791	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3670	0.6190	0.5308	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6600	0.6720	0.6678	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4890	0.4887	0.4888	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0670	0.7910	0.8876	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.2

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260508_PIT@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	542303
playerID	542303
playerName	Marcell Ozuna
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	PIT
teamID	22

Konnor Griffin (804606) · BATTER · SS · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 31

All-history rows before 20260509: 31

System season_avg: 0.2610

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2609

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.161	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.161	0.000	-0.161	0.000
predicted_3B	0.065	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.065	0.000	-0.065	0.000
predicted_AB	3.710	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.710	3.000	0.290	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.291	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.261	0.333	-0.011	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.323	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.323	1.000	-0.323	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.950	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.968	1.000	0.032	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.065	0.000	-0.065	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.370	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.331	0.500	-0.081	-0.250
predicted_R	0.419	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.419	0.000	0.581	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.210	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.484	0.000	-0.484	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.290	1.000	-0.290	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.451	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.391	0.333	-0.141	-0.083
predicted_SO	1.161	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.161	1.000	-1.161	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.161	-
predicted_3B	0.065	-
predicted_AB	3.710	-
predicted_AVG	0.291	-
predicted_BB	0.323	-
predicted_H	0.950	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.370	-
predicted_R	0.419	-
predicted_RBI	0.210	-
predicted_SLG	0.451	-
predicted_SO	1.161	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.267	0.106
predicted_3B	0.052	-0.013
predicted_AB	3.536	-0.174
predicted_AVG	0.291	0.000
predicted_BB	0.387	0.064
predicted_H	0.984	0.034
predicted_HBP	0.012	-
predicted_HR	0.043	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.370	-0.000
predicted_R	0.369	-0.050
predicted_RBI	0.219	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.451	0.000
predicted_SO	1.226	0.065

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.265 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	0.2500	0.3333	0.3750	0.2500	0.0000	0.0000	0.1250	0.4375
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	13.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	5.000	5.000	11.000	0.3611	0.4390	0.5833	0.3611	0.0278	0.1111	0.1389	0.3056
season	0.20	31	-	115.000	30.000	5.000	2.000	2.000	15.000	13.000	10.000	36.000	0.2609	0.3307	0.3913	0.2609	0.0174	0.1304	0.0870	0.3130

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3240
predicted_3B	0.0450
predicted_AB	3.4420
predicted_AVG	0.2911
predicted_BB	0.4210
predicted_H	1.0020
predicted_HBP	0.0120
predicted_HR	0.0450
predicted_OBP	0.3698
predicted_R	0.3420
predicted_RBI	0.2240
predicted_SLG	0.4512
predicted_SO	1.2610

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1610	0.3240	0.2670	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0650	0.0450	0.0520	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7100	3.4420	3.5358	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2910	0.2911	0.2911	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3230	0.4210	0.3867	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9500	1.0020	0.9838	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0120	0.0120	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0450	0.0432	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3700	0.3698	0.3699	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4190	0.3420	0.3690	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2100	0.2240	0.2191	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4510	0.4512	0.4511	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1610	1.2610	1.2260	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.261

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260508_PIT@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	804606
playerID	804606
playerName	Konnor Griffin
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	PIT
teamID	22

Braxton Ashcraft (677952) · PITCHER · Starter · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 7

All-history rows before 20260509: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	2.000	0.000	-2.000	0.000
predicted_IP	4.100	4.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.786	7.200	-1.686	-3.100
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	-	Pitching_SO	6.429	6.000	-1.429	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 4.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	29.200	11.000	23.000	10.000	34.000	3.000	3.3371	1.1124	0.3708	0.7753	0.3371	1.1461	0.1011
last_10	0.35	7	41.200	14.000	31.000	14.000	45.000	3.000	3.0240	1.0800	0.3360	0.7440	0.3360	1.0800	0.0720
season	0.20	7	41.200	14.000	31.000	14.000	45.000	3.000	3.0240	1.0800	0.3360	0.7440	0.3360	1.0800	0.0720

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.0190
predicted_ER	2.1100
predicted_ERA	3.1649
predicted_H	4.5480
predicted_HR	0.5110
predicted_IP	6.0000
predicted_SO	6.6580
predicted_WHIP	1.0946

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	2.0190	2.0124	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	2.1100	1.3715	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.1649	3.1649	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	4.5480	4.0062	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.5110	0.3322	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.1000	6.0000	5.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	6.6580	6.0777	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0946	1.0946	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.1
H	3
R	0
ER	0
BB	2
SO	5
HR	0
BF	21
Pitches	84

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	27
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.02
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	10
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	7.2
Pitching_Pitches	82
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	6
Pitching_Strikes	56
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_CIN@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	677952
playerID	677952
playerName	Braxton Ashcraft
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	PIT
teamID	22

Dennis Santana (642701) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 17

All-history rows before 20260509: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.412	0.000	-0.412	0.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.953	1.000	0.247	0.200
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.588	0.000	-0.588	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	6.000	8.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	11.5714	2.5714	1.2857	1.7143	0.8571	0.2143	0.4286
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	7.000	11.000	7.000	4.000	2.000	6.5172	1.8621	0.7241	1.1379	0.7241	0.4138	0.2069
season	0.20	17	16.200	7.000	12.000	9.000	10.000	2.000	3.7800	1.2600	0.4200	0.7200	0.5400	0.6000	0.1200

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.7470
predicted_ER	0.9160
predicted_ERA	8.2441
predicted_H	1.3140
predicted_HR	0.2890
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.3610
predicted_WHIP	2.0609

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.7470	0.4856	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.9160	0.5954	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	8.2441	8.2441	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.3140	0.8541	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2890	0.1878	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.0000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.3610	0.2346	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	2.0609	2.0609	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	9

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.78
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_PIT@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	642701
playerID	642701
playerName	Dennis Santana
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PIT
teamID	22

Gregory Soto (642397) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 19

All-history rows before 20260509: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.158	0.000	-0.158	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.963	1.000	0.037	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.316	1.000	-1.316	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	0.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.000	0.0000	0.3750	0.0000	0.1875	0.1875	0.9375	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	2.000	4.000	2.000	12.000	0.000	1.7419	0.5806	0.1935	0.3871	0.1935	1.1613	0.0000
season	0.20	19	19.000	3.000	6.000	7.000	25.000	1.000	1.4211	0.6842	0.1579	0.3158	0.3684	1.3158	0.0526

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2260
predicted_ER	0.0990
predicted_ERA	0.8939
predicted_H	0.2830
predicted_HR	0.0110
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0910
predicted_WHIP	0.5088

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.2260	0.4969	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.0990	0.0644	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.8939	0.8939	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.2830	0.8840	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0110	0.0072	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.0910	0.7092	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.5088	0.5088	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.42
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_PIT@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	642397
playerID	642397
playerName	Gregory Soto
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PIT
teamID	22

Isaac Mattson (676755) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 18

All-history rows before 20260509: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.389	0.000	-0.389	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.828	0.100	0.172	0.900
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.722	1.000	1.278	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.100	5.000	3.000	3.000	3.000	13.5000	1.8000	1.5000	0.9000	0.9000	0.9000
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	5.000	7.000	4.000	6.000	4.8214	1.1786	0.5357	0.7500	0.4286	0.6429
season	0.20	18	17.000	7.000	15.000	9.000	13.000	3.7059	1.4118	0.4118	0.8823	0.5294	0.7647

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5620
predicted_ER	0.8030
predicted_ERA	8.5037
predicted_H	0.7170
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.6660
predicted_WHIP	1.5049

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5620	0.3653	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.8030	0.5220	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	8.5037	8.5037	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7170	0.4661	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.6660	1.1329	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5049	1.5049	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	1
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.71
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	6
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	4
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_PIT@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	676755
playerID	676755
playerName	Isaac Mattson
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PIT
teamID	22

Mason Montgomery (682254) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 15

All-history rows before 20260509: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.793	0.200	0.207	0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.467	0.000	-0.467	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	0.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	0.000	0.0000	0.8571	0.0000	0.2143	0.6429	0.6429	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	0.000	5.000	4.000	12.000	0.000	0.0000	0.9643	0.0000	0.5357	0.4286	1.2857	0.0000
season	0.20	15	14.000	5.000	12.000	8.000	22.000	1.000	3.2143	1.4286	0.3571	0.8571	0.5714	1.5714	0.0714

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5540
predicted_ER	0.0710
predicted_ERA	0.6429
predicted_H	0.4550
predicted_HR	0.0140
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0540
predicted_WHIP	1.0089

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5540	0.3601	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.0710	0.0461	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.6429	0.6429	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.4550	0.2958	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0140	0.0091	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0540	1.0351	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0089	1.0089	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.21
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_PIT@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	682254
playerID	682254
playerName	Mason Montgomery
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PIT
teamID	22

Home Team: SF

Matt Chapman (656305) · BATTER · 3B · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 37

All-history rows before 20260509: 37

System season_avg: 0.2270

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2270

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.162	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.162	0.000	-0.162	0.000
predicted_3B	0.027	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_AB	3.811	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.811	4.000	-0.811	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.065	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.227	0.000	0.106	0.333
predicted_BB	0.378	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.378	0.000	0.622	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_H	0.230	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.865	0.000	0.135	1.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.127	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.301	0.000	0.199	0.500
predicted_R	0.432	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.432	0.000	-0.432	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.324	0.000	-0.324	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.090	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.305	0.000	0.028	0.333
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.162	-
predicted_3B	0.027	-
predicted_AB	3.811	-
predicted_AVG	0.065	-
predicted_BB	0.378	-
predicted_H	0.230	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.127	-
predicted_R	0.432	-
predicted_RBI	0.060	-
predicted_SLG	0.090	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.101	-0.061
predicted_3B	0.013	-0.014
predicted_AB	3.760	-0.051
predicted_AVG	0.065	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.299	-0.079
predicted_H	0.238	0.008
predicted_HBP	0.042	-
predicted_HR	0.003	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.127	-0.000
predicted_R	0.253	-0.179
predicted_RBI	0.063	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.090	0.000
predicted_SO	1.200	0.200

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.81), rates preserved: AVG=0.062 HR/AB=0.001

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.811

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	6.000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.3158
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	16.000	0.0556	0.1905	0.0833	0.0556	0.0000	0.0000	0.1389	0.4444
season	0.20	37	-	141.000	32.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	12.000	16.000	14.000	37.000	0.2270	0.3013	0.3050	0.2270	0.0071	0.0851	0.0993	0.2624

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0680
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.7320
predicted_AVG	0.0649
predicted_BB	0.2560
predicted_H	0.2420
predicted_HBP	0.0420
predicted_HR	0.0050
predicted_OBP	0.1269
predicted_R	0.1570
predicted_RBI	0.0640
predicted_SLG	0.0902
predicted_SO	1.3070

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1620	0.0680	0.1009	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0270	0.0050	0.0127	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8110	3.7320	3.7597	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.0650	0.0649	0.0649	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3780	0.2560	0.2987	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.2300	0.2420	0.2378	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0420	0.0420	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0050	0.0033	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1270	0.1269	0.1269	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4320	0.1570	0.2532	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0600	0.0640	0.0626	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.0900	0.0902	0.0901	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.3070	1.1995	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.227

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260508_PIT@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	656305
playerID	656305
playerName	Matt Chapman
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	SF
teamID	24

Drew Gilbert (687551) · BATTER · CF · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 17

All-history rows before 20260509: 17

System season_avg: 0.2780

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2778

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.059	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.176	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.176	4.000	0.824	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.278	0.250	-0.278	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.176	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.176	0.000	-0.176	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.900	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.882	1.000	-0.882	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.351	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.316	0.250	-0.316	-0.250
predicted_R	0.412	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.412	1.000	-0.412	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.260	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.353	1.000	-0.353	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.415	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.407	0.250	-0.407	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.647	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.647	1.000	0.353	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.059	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.176	-
predicted_AVG	0.320	-
predicted_BB	0.176	-
predicted_H	0.900	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.351	-
predicted_R	0.412	-
predicted_RBI	0.260	-
predicted_SLG	0.415	-
predicted_SO	0.647	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.108	0.049
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.270	0.094
predicted_AVG	0.320	0.000
predicted_BB	0.166	-0.010
predicted_H	1.007	0.107
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.057	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.351	0.000
predicted_R	0.486	0.074
predicted_RBI	0.288	0.028
predicted_SLG	0.415	0.000
predicted_SO	0.543	-0.104

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.27), rates preserved: AVG=0.308 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	0.3529	0.3889	0.4118	0.3529	0.0000	0.0588	0.0588	0.1177
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	10.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	5.000	1.000	5.000	0.3030	0.3235	0.4242	0.3030	0.0303	0.1212	0.0303	0.1515
season	0.20	17	-	54.000	15.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	7.000	3.000	11.000	0.2778	0.3158	0.4074	0.2778	0.0370	0.1111	0.0556	0.2037

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1350
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.3200
predicted_AVG	0.3204
predicted_BB	0.1600
predicted_H	1.0640
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0600
predicted_OBP	0.3514
predicted_R	0.5260
predicted_RBI	0.3030
predicted_SLG	0.4153
predicted_SO	0.4870

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0590	0.1350	0.1084	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1760	3.3200	3.2696	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3200	0.3204	0.3203	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1760	0.1600	0.1656	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9000	1.0640	1.0066	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0600	0.0565	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3510	0.3514	0.3513	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4120	0.5260	0.4861	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2600	0.3030	0.2880	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4150	0.4153	0.4152	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6470	0.4870	0.5430	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.278

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260508_PIT@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	687551
playerID	687551
playerName	Drew Gilbert
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	SF
teamID	24

Eric Haase (606992) · BATTER · C · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 3

All-history rows before 20260509: 3

System season_avg: 0.3000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.667	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.667	1.000	-0.667	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.333	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.333	4.000	0.667	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.300	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.300	0.250	-0.050	0.000
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.850	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.300	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.300	0.250	-0.050	0.000
predicted_R	0.667	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.500	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.500	0.500	-0.250	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.667	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.667	1.000	1.333	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.667	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.333	-
predicted_AVG	0.300	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.850	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.300	-
predicted_R	0.667	-
predicted_RBI	0.280	-
predicted_SLG	0.500	-
predicted_SO	0.667	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.667	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.333	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.300	0.000
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.948	0.098
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.300	0.000
predicted_R	0.667	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.315	0.034
predicted_SLG	0.500	0.000
predicted_SO	0.667	0.000

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.33), rates preserved: AVG=0.284 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 3

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	3	-	10.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	0.3000	0.3000	0.5000	0.3000	0.1000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	3	-	10.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	0.3000	0.3000	0.5000	0.3000	0.1000	0.2000
season	0.20	3	-	10.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	0.3000	0.3000	0.5000	0.3000	0.1000	0.2000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.6670
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.3330
predicted_AVG	0.3000
predicted_BB	0.0000
predicted_H	1.0000
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.3000
predicted_R	0.6670
predicted_RBI	0.3330
predicted_SLG	0.5000
predicted_SO	0.6670

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.6670	0.6670	0.6670	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3330	3.3330	3.3330	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3000	0.3000	0.3000	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8500	1.0000	0.9475	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3000	0.3000	0.3000	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6670	0.6670	0.6670	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2800	0.3330	0.3145	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5000	0.5000	0.5000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6670	0.6670	0.6670	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	3
Season rows before report date	3
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	3
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.3

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260503_SF@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	606992
playerID	606992
playerName	Eric Haase
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	SF
teamID	24

Jung Hoo Lee (808982) · BATTER · RF · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 37

All-history rows before 20260509: 37

System season_avg: 0.2720

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2721

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.216	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.216	0.000	-0.216	0.000
predicted_3B	0.027	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_AB	4.060	2.000	2.000	Hitting_AB	3.676	4.000	-1.676	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.181	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.272	0.500	0.228	0.000
predicted_BB	0.270	2.000	2.000	Hitting_BB	0.270	0.000	1.730	2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.730	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	2.000	0.000	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.054	0.000	-0.054	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.224	0.750	0.750	Hitting_OBP	0.320	0.500	0.430	0.250
predicted_R	0.405	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.405	0.000	-0.405	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.297	0.000	-0.297	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.204	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.390	0.500	0.110	0.000
predicted_SO	0.486	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.486	0.000	-0.486	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.216	-
predicted_3B	0.027	-
predicted_AB	4.060	-
predicted_AVG	0.181	-
predicted_BB	0.270	-
predicted_H	0.730	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.224	-
predicted_R	0.405	-
predicted_RBI	0.240	-
predicted_SLG	0.204	-
predicted_SO	0.486	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.104	-0.112
predicted_3B	0.013	-0.014
predicted_AB	3.875	-0.185
predicted_AVG	0.181	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.234	-0.036
predicted_H	0.699	-0.031
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.011	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.224	-0.000
predicted_R	0.299	-0.106
predicted_RBI	0.227	-0.013
predicted_SLG	0.204	0.000
predicted_SO	0.325	-0.161

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.06), rates preserved: AVG=0.172 HR/AB=0.003

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-2.000
BB	2.000	2.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 4.060

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.1579	0.2000	0.1579	0.1579	0.0000	0.0526	0.0526	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	0.1579	0.2000	0.1579	0.1579	0.0000	0.0526	0.0526	0.1053
season	0.20	37	-	136.000	37.000	8.000	1.000	2.000	11.000	15.000	10.000	18.000	0.2721	0.3197	0.3897	0.2721	0.0147	0.0809	0.0735	0.1323

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0440
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.7750
predicted_AVG	0.1807
predicted_BB	0.2140
predicted_H	0.6820
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0110
predicted_OBP	0.2239
predicted_R	0.2420
predicted_RBI	0.2200
predicted_SLG	0.2043
predicted_SO	0.2390

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2160	0.0440	0.1042	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0270	0.0060	0.0134	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0600	3.7750	3.8747	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1810	0.1807	0.1808	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2700	0.2140	0.2336	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7300	0.6820	0.6988	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0110	0.0106	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2240	0.2239	0.2239	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4050	0.2420	0.2990	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2400	0.2200	0.2270	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2040	0.2043	0.2042	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4860	0.2390	0.3254	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.272

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260508_PIT@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	808982
playerID	808982
playerName	Jung Hoo Lee
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	SF
teamID	24

Bryce Eldridge (805811) · BATTER · DH · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 3

All-history rows before 20260509: 3

System season_avg: 0.1110

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1111

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	3.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_BB	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_SO	1.333	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.333	3.000	-0.333	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.111	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.320	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.200	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.000	-
predicted_SLG	0.111	-
predicted_SO	1.333	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.111	0.000
predicted_BB	0.333	0.000
predicted_H	0.329	0.009
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.200	0.000
predicted_R	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.111	0.000
predicted_SO	1.333	0.000

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.110 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 3

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	3	-	9.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	0.1111	0.2000	0.1111	0.1111	0.1111	0.4444
last_10	0.35	3	-	9.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	0.1111	0.2000	0.1111	0.1111	0.1111	0.4444
season	0.20	3	-	9.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	0.1111	0.2000	0.1111	0.1111	0.1111	0.4444

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.0000
predicted_AVG	0.1111
predicted_BB	0.3330
predicted_H	0.3330
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.2000
predicted_R	0.0000
predicted_RBI	0.0000
predicted_SLG	0.1111
predicted_SO	1.3330

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.0000	3.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1110	0.1111	0.1111	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.3330	0.3330	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3200	0.3330	0.3285	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1110	0.1111	0.1111	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3330	1.3330	1.3330	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	3
Season rows before report date	3
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	3
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.111

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260506_SD@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	805811
playerID	805811
playerName	Bryce Eldridge
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	SF
teamID	24

Luis Arraez (650333) · BATTER · 2B · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 35

All-history rows before 20260509: 35

System season_avg: 0.3140

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3139

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.057	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.057	0.000	-0.057	0.000
predicted_AB	4.110	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.914	4.000	0.086	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.334	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.314	0.250	-0.314	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.171	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.171	0.000	-0.171	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.229	1.000	-1.229	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.338	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.338	0.250	-0.338	-0.250
predicted_R	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.490	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.371	2.000	-0.371	-2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.114	0.000	-0.114	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.497	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.394	0.250	-0.394	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.171	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.171	0.000	-0.171	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.057	-
predicted_AB	4.110	-
predicted_AVG	0.334	-
predicted_BB	0.171	-
predicted_H	1.370	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.338	-
predicted_R	0.400	-
predicted_RBI	0.490	-
predicted_SLG	0.497	-
predicted_SO	0.171	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.469	0.269
predicted_3B	0.027	-0.030
predicted_AB	3.969	-0.141
predicted_AVG	0.334	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.082	-0.089
predicted_H	1.324	-0.046
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.338	0.000
predicted_R	0.438	0.038
predicted_RBI	0.472	-0.018
predicted_SLG	0.497	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.126	-0.045

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.11), rates preserved: AVG=0.322 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 4.110

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	7.000	4.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.3684	0.3684	0.5789	0.3684	0.1053	0.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	12.000	6.000	0.000	6.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	0.3000	0.3000	0.4500	0.3000	0.1500	0.0000	0.0500
season	0.20	35	-	137.000	43.000	7.000	2.000	13.000	14.000	6.000	6.000	0.3139	0.3379	0.3942	0.3139	0.0949	0.0438	0.0438

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.6130
predicted_3B	0.0110
predicted_AB	3.8930
predicted_AVG	0.3336
predicted_BB	0.0340
predicted_H	1.2990
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.3384
predicted_R	0.4580
predicted_RBI	0.4630
predicted_SLG	0.4968
predicted_SO	0.1020

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.6130	0.4685	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0570	0.0110	0.0271	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1100	3.8930	3.9690	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3340	0.3336	0.3337	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1710	0.0340	0.0819	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.3700	1.2990	1.3238	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3380	0.3384	0.3383	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4000	0.4580	0.4377	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4900	0.4630	0.4725	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4970	0.4968	0.4969	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.1710	0.1020	0.1261	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.314

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260508_PIT@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	650333
playerID	650333
playerName	Luis Arraez
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	SF
teamID	24

Rafael Devers (646240) · BATTER · 1B · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 38

All-history rows before 20260509: 38

System season_avg: 0.2290

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2292

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.158	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.158	0.000	0.842	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.840	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.789	4.000	0.211	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.310	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.229	0.500	0.021	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.237	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.237	0.000	-0.237	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.190	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.868	2.000	0.132	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.105	1.000	-0.105	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.354	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.271	0.500	-0.021	-0.250
predicted_R	0.316	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.316	2.000	-0.316	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.760	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.421	1.000	-0.421	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.617	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.354	1.250	0.146	-0.750
predicted_SO	1.237	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.237	2.000	-0.237	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.158	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.840	-
predicted_AVG	0.310	-
predicted_BB	0.237	-
predicted_H	1.190	-
predicted_HR	0.320	-
predicted_OBP	0.354	-
predicted_R	0.316	-
predicted_RBI	0.760	-
predicted_SLG	0.617	-
predicted_SO	1.237	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.181	0.023
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.523	-0.317
predicted_AVG	0.310	0.000
predicted_BB	0.302	0.065
predicted_H	1.093	-0.097
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.293	-0.027
predicted_OBP	0.354	0.000
predicted_R	0.484	0.168
predicted_RBI	0.698	-0.062
predicted_SLG	0.617	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.197	-0.040

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.84), rates preserved: AVG=0.285 HR/AB=0.076

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.840

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	2.000	6.000	0.3750	0.4211	0.8125	0.3750	0.1250	0.2500	0.1250	0.3750
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	9.000	2.000	2.000	6.000	4.000	3.000	11.000	0.2727	0.3158	0.5152	0.2727	0.0606	0.1818	0.0909	0.3333
season	0.20	38	-	144.000	33.000	6.000	4.000	16.000	12.000	9.000	47.000	0.2292	0.2710	0.3542	0.2292	0.0278	0.1111	0.0625	0.3264

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1930
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.3530
predicted_AVG	0.3100
predicted_BB	0.3370
predicted_H	1.0400
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.2780
predicted_OBP	0.3542
predicted_R	0.5750
predicted_RBI	0.6650
predicted_SLG	0.6168
predicted_SO	1.1760

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1580	0.1930	0.1807	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8400	3.3530	3.5234	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3100	0.3100	0.3100	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2370	0.3370	0.3020	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1900	1.0400	1.0925	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3200	0.2780	0.2927	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3540	0.3542	0.3541	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3160	0.5750	0.4843	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7600	0.6650	0.6983	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6170	0.6168	0.6169	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2370	1.1760	1.1973	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.229

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260508_PIT@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	646240
playerID	646240
playerName	Rafael Devers
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	SF
teamID	24

Willy Adames (642715) · BATTER · SS · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 37

All-history rows before 20260509: 37

System season_avg: 0.2030

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2027

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.297	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.297	0.000	-0.297	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	4.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.225	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.203	0.500	-0.203	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.162	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.162	0.000	-0.162	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.054	0.000	-0.054	0.000
predicted_H	0.850	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.811	2.000	-0.811	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.081	0.000	-0.081	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.240	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.239	0.500	0.011	-0.250
predicted_R	0.378	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.378	1.000	-0.378	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.162	0.000	-0.162	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.285	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.338	0.500	-0.338	-0.500
predicted_SO	1.270	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.270	0.000	-0.270	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.297	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.225	-
predicted_BB	0.162	-
predicted_H	0.850	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.240	-
predicted_R	0.378	-
predicted_RBI	0.030	-
predicted_SLG	0.285	-
predicted_SO	1.270	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.223	-0.074
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.873	-0.127
predicted_AVG	0.225	0.000
predicted_BB	0.100	-0.062
predicted_H	0.855	0.005
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.013	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.240	-0.000
predicted_R	0.343	-0.035
predicted_RBI	0.031	0.001
predicted_SLG	0.285	0.000
predicted_SO	1.152	-0.118

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.214 HR/AB=0.003

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	5.000	0.2632	0.2632	0.3158	0.2632	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.2632
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	11.000	0.1892	0.2105	0.2162	0.1892	0.0000	0.0000	0.0270	0.2973
season	0.20	37	-	148.000	30.000	11.000	3.000	6.000	14.000	6.000	47.000	0.2027	0.2387	0.3378	0.2027	0.0203	0.0405	0.0405	0.3176

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1830
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.8050
predicted_AVG	0.2252
predicted_BB	0.0670
predicted_H	0.8570
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0150
predicted_OBP	0.2399
predicted_R	0.3240
predicted_RBI	0.0310
predicted_SLG	0.2853
predicted_SO	1.0880

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2970	0.1830	0.2229	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0000	3.8050	3.8733	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2250	0.2252	0.2251	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1620	0.0670	0.1003	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8500	0.8570	0.8546	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0150	0.0132	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2400	0.2399	0.2399	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3780	0.3240	0.3429	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0300	0.0310	0.0307	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2850	0.2853	0.2852	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2700	1.0880	1.1517	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.203

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260508_PIT@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	642715
playerID	642715
playerName	Willy Adames
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	SF
teamID	24

Heliot Ramos (671218) · BATTER · LF · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 35

All-history rows before 20260509: 35

System season_avg: 0.2590

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2593

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.257	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.257	1.000	-0.257	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.029	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_AB	3.990	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.857	4.000	0.143	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.229	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.259	0.500	-0.009	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.171	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.171	0.000	-0.171	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.920	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	2.000	0.000	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.086	0.000	-0.086	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.239	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.289	0.500	-0.039	-0.250
predicted_R	0.371	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.371	1.000	-0.371	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.429	1.000	-0.429	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.402	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.407	0.750	-0.157	-0.500
predicted_SO	1.229	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.229	1.000	-0.229	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.257	-
predicted_3B	0.029	-
predicted_AB	3.990	-
predicted_AVG	0.229	-
predicted_BB	0.171	-
predicted_H	0.920	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.239	-
predicted_R	0.371	-
predicted_RBI	0.250	-
predicted_SLG	0.402	-
predicted_SO	1.229	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.331	0.074
predicted_3B	0.095	0.066
predicted_AB	3.978	-0.012
predicted_AVG	0.229	0.000
predicted_BB	0.105	-0.066
predicted_H	0.914	-0.006
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.019	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.239	0.000
predicted_R	0.283	-0.088
predicted_RBI	0.248	-0.002
predicted_SLG	0.402	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.214	-0.015

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.99), rates preserved: AVG=0.229 HR/AB=0.005

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.990

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	6.000	0.2000	0.2000	0.4000	0.2000	0.0000	0.0500	0.0000	0.3000
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	10.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	12.000	0.2500	0.2619	0.4000	0.2500	0.0000	0.0500	0.0250	0.3000
season	0.20	35	-	135.000	35.000	9.000	1.000	3.000	15.000	13.000	6.000	43.000	0.2593	0.2887	0.4074	0.2593	0.0222	0.1111	0.0444	0.3185

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3710
predicted_3B	0.1300
predicted_AB	3.9710
predicted_AVG	0.2294
predicted_BB	0.0700
predicted_H	0.9110
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0180
predicted_OBP	0.2394
predicted_R	0.2350
predicted_RBI	0.2470
predicted_SLG	0.4015
predicted_SO	1.2060

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2570	0.3710	0.3311	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0290	0.1300	0.0947	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9900	3.9710	3.9777	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2290	0.2294	0.2293	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1710	0.0700	0.1053	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9200	0.9110	0.9142	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0180	0.0187	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2390	0.2394	0.2393	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3710	0.2350	0.2826	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2500	0.2470	0.2480	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4020	0.4015	0.4017	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2290	1.2060	1.2141	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.259

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	1
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260508_PIT@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	671218
playerID	671218
playerName	Heliot Ramos
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	SF
teamID	24

Landen Roupp (694738) · PITCHER · Starter · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 7

All-history rows before 20260509: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	4.000	4.000	-	Pitching_ER	2.000	4.000	2.000	0.000
predicted_IP	4.200	4.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.500	4.100	-1.300	0.100
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	-	Pitching_SO	6.143	6.000	-2.143	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 4.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	29.000	9.000	17.000	13.000	29.000	1.000	2.7931	1.0345	0.3103	0.5862	0.4483	1.0000	0.0345
last_10	0.35	7	39.200	14.000	26.000	16.000	43.000	1.000	3.1765	1.0588	0.3529	0.6555	0.4034	1.0840	0.0252
season	0.20	7	39.200	14.000	26.000	16.000	43.000	1.000	3.1765	1.0588	0.3529	0.6555	0.4034	1.0840	0.0252

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.4000
predicted_ER	1.8910
predicted_ERA	3.0040
predicted_H	3.5380
predicted_HR	0.1660
predicted_IP	5.2000
predicted_SO	5.9290
predicted_WHIP	1.0479

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	5.0000	2.4000	3.3100	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	4.0000	1.8910	2.6292	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.0040	3.0040	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	3.5380	3.3497	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	2.0000	0.1660	0.8079	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.2000	5.2000	5.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	4.0000	5.9290	5.2538	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0479	1.0479	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.2
H	3
R	4
ER	4
BB	5
SO	4
HR	2
BF	23
Pitches	97

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	22
Pitching_ER	4
Pitching_ERA	3.18
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	4
Pitching_H	8
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	4.1
Pitching_Pitches	88
Pitching_R	4
Pitching_SO	6
Pitching_Strikes	56
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260502_SF@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	694738
playerID	694738
playerName	Landen Roupp
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	SF
teamID	24

Caleb Kilian (668873) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 16

All-history rows before 20260509: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.188	1.000	-0.188	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.931	1.000	0.269	0.200
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.125	0.000	-0.125	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	2.000	6.000	4.000	4.000	1.000	3.0000	1.6667	0.3333	1.0000	0.6667	0.6667	0.1667
last_10	0.35	10	11.200	3.000	9.000	8.000	11.000	2.000	2.3143	1.4571	0.2571	0.7714	0.6857	0.9429	0.1714
season	0.20	16	17.000	3.000	9.000	10.000	18.000	2.000	1.5882	1.1176	0.1765	0.5294	0.5882	1.0588	0.1177

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.8330
predicted_ER	0.3490
predicted_ERA	2.4776
predicted_H	1.0460
predicted_HR	0.2010
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.0660
predicted_WHIP	1.4835

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.8330	0.8914	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3490	0.2268	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.4776	2.4776	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.0460	0.6799	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2010	0.1307	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0660	1.0429	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4835	1.4835	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	1.59
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	35
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	20
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_PIT@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	668873
playerID	668873
playerName	Caleb Kilian
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SF
teamID	24

Ryan Walker (676254) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 15

All-history rows before 20260509: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.600	2.000	1.400	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.853	1.000	0.247	0.100
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.867	0.000	1.133	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	5.000	7.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	9.6429	2.3571	1.0714	1.5000	0.8571	0.2143	0.2143
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	7.000	13.000	6.000	8.000	1.000	6.0968	1.8387	0.6774	1.2581	0.5806	0.7742	0.0968
season	0.20	15	14.200	9.000	16.000	9.000	13.000	2.000	5.5227	1.7045	0.6136	1.0909	0.6136	0.8864	0.1364

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.7120
predicted_ER	0.8420
predicted_ERA	7.5777
predicted_H	1.3340
predicted_HR	0.1580
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.5450
predicted_WHIP	2.0451

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.7120	0.4628	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.8420	1.2473	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	7.5777	7.5777	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	1.3340	1.9171	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1580	0.1027	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.0000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.5450	1.0543	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	2.0451	2.0451	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	3
R	2
ER	2
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	28

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	5.52
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	29
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	15
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_SD@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	676254
playerID	676254
playerName	Ryan Walker
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SF
teamID	24

Matt Gage (657424) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 18

All-history rows before 20260509: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.111	0.000	-0.111
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.644	1.000	0.356
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.500	0.000	-0.500

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.100	0.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.0000	1.2000	0.0000	0.3000	0.9000	0.3000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.000	1.000	4.000	6.000	3.000	1.000	1.1250	1.2500	0.1250	0.5000	0.7500	0.3750	0.1250
season	0.20	18	15.100	2.000	8.000	10.000	9.000	1.000	1.1739	1.1739	0.1304	0.5217	0.6522	0.5870	0.0652

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5850
predicted_ER	0.0510
predicted_ERA	0.6285
predicted_H	0.3040
predicted_HR	0.0420
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.2810
predicted_WHIP	1.2123

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5850	0.3802	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.0510	0.0331	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.6285	0.6285	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.3040	0.1976	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0420	0.0273	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.2810	0.1827	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2123	1.2123	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	6

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.17
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	4
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_PIT@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	657424
playerID	657424
playerName	Matt Gage
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SF
teamID	24

Keaton Winn (676775) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 17

All-history rows before 20260509: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.294	0.000	-0.294	0.000
predicted_IP	0.100	0.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.906	1.000	-0.806	-0.900
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.824	1.000	0.176	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 0.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	2.000	3.000	4.000	1.000	3.1765	1.2353	0.3529	0.5294	0.7059	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	7.000	1.8000	0.7000	0.2000	0.3000	0.4000	0.7000
season	0.20	17	16.100	5.000	7.000	6.000	14.000	2.7551	0.7959	0.3061	0.4286	0.3674	0.8571

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5310
predicted_ER	0.2900
predicted_ERA	2.6104
predicted_H	0.4290
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.4960
predicted_WHIP	0.9601

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5310	0.3452	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2900	0.1885	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.6104	2.6104	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.4290	0.2788	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	1.0000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.4960	0.6724	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9601	0.9601	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.76
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_PIT@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	676775
playerID	676775
playerName	Keaton Winn
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SF
teamID	24

20260509_SEA@CHW

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 8, "confidence": 0.56, "home_win_probability": 0.56, "away_win_probability": 0.43999999999999995, "predicted_score_text": "SEA 6 - 8 CHW", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to final winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "predicted_score_text": "SEA 5 - 6 CHW", "confidence": 0.56, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score", "final_prediction_synced": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "SEA 5 - 6 CHW", "winner": "CHW"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 8, "score_text": "SEA 6 - 8 CHW", "winner": "CHW"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 1, "home_run_delta": 2, "total_run_delta": 3, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"}}

Away Team: SEA

Rob Refsnyder (608701) · BATTER · RF · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 10

All-history rows before 20260509: 10

System season_avg: 0.1330

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1333

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.300	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	3.000	2.000	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.179	0.400	0.400	Hitting_AVG	0.133	0.000	0.267	0.400
predicted_BB	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.300	0.000	-0.300	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.590	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.400	0.000	1.600	2.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.223	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.212	0.000	0.188	0.400
predicted_R	0.300	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.300	0.000	0.700	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.314	0.400	0.400	Hitting_SLG	0.233	0.000	0.167	0.400
predicted_SO	0.800	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.800	2.000	-0.800	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.300	-
predicted_AVG	0.179	-
predicted_BB	0.300	-
predicted_H	0.590	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.223	-
predicted_R	0.300	-
predicted_RBI	0.150	-
predicted_SLG	0.314	-
predicted_SO	0.800	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.222	-0.078
predicted_AVG	0.179	0.000
predicted_BB	0.219	-0.081
predicted_H	0.577	-0.013
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.145	-0.005
predicted_OBP	0.223	-0.000
predicted_R	0.383	0.083
predicted_RBI	0.145	-0.005
predicted_SLG	0.314	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.802	0.002

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.30), rates preserved: AVG=0.175 HR/AB=0.044

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	2.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 10

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	0.000	4.000	0.2353	0.2353	0.4118	0.2353	0.0588	0.0588	0.0000	0.2353
last_10	0.35	10	-	30.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	8.000	0.1333	0.2121	0.2333	0.1333	0.0333	0.0333	0.1000	0.2667
season	0.20	10	-	30.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	8.000	0.1333	0.2121	0.2333	0.1333	0.0333	0.0333	0.1000	0.2667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.1800
predicted_AVG	0.1792
predicted_BB	0.1750
predicted_H	0.5700
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1420
predicted_OBP	0.2225
predicted_R	0.4270
predicted_RBI	0.1420
predicted_SLG	0.3136
predicted_SO	0.8030

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3000	3.1800	3.2220	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1790	0.1792	0.1791	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3000	0.1750	0.2188	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5900	0.5700	0.5770	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1420	0.1448	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2230	0.2225	0.2227	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3000	0.4270	0.3826	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1500	0.1420	0.1448	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3140	0.3136	0.3137	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8000	0.8030	0.8019	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	10
Season rows before report date	10
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	10
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.133

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260503_KC@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	608701
playerID	608701
playerName	Rob Refsnyder
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	SEA
teamID	25

Josh Naylor (647304) · BATTER · 1B · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 36

All-history rows before 20260509: 36

System season_avg: 0.2460

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2465

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.083	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.010	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.944	5.000	1.056	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.362	0.400	0.400	Hitting_AVG	0.246	0.600	0.154	-0.200
predicted_BB	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_H	1.450	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.972	3.000	1.028	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.180	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.139	1.000	0.861	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.396	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.308	0.600	0.092	-0.200
predicted_R	0.333	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.333	3.000	0.667	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.770	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.556	3.000	0.444	-2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.194	0.000	-0.194	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.532	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SLG	0.373	1.200	0.627	-0.200
predicted_SO	0.722	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.722	0.000	0.278	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.083	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.010	-
predicted_AVG	0.362	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	1.450	-
predicted_HR	0.180	-
predicted_OBP	0.396	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.770	-
predicted_SLG	0.532	-
predicted_SO	0.722	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.121	0.038
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.078	0.068
predicted_AVG	0.362	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.265	-0.068
predicted_H	1.475	0.025
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.184	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.396	0.000
predicted_R	0.505	0.172
predicted_RBI	0.780	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.532	0.000
predicted_SO	0.660	-0.062

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.08), rates preserved: AVG=0.362 HR/AB=0.045

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 4.010

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	9.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	1.000	3.000	0.4286	0.4545	0.6190	0.4286	0.0476	0.1905	0.0476	0.1429
last_10	0.35	10	-	41.000	14.000	1.000	2.000	9.000	5.000	2.000	6.000	0.3415	0.3721	0.5122	0.3415	0.0488	0.2195	0.0488	0.1463
season	0.20	36	-	142.000	35.000	3.000	5.000	20.000	12.000	12.000	26.000	0.2465	0.3077	0.3732	0.2465	0.0352	0.1409	0.0845	0.1831

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1410
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.1140
predicted_AVG	0.3617
predicted_BB	0.2280
predicted_H	1.4880
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.1870
predicted_OBP	0.3963
predicted_R	0.5980
predicted_RBI	0.7850
predicted_SLG	0.5325
predicted_SO	0.6260

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0830	0.1410	0.1207	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0100	4.1140	4.0776	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3620	0.3617	0.3618	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.2280	0.2647	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.4500	1.4880	1.4747	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1800	0.1870	0.1845	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3960	0.3963	0.3962	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.5980	0.5052	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7700	0.7850	0.7798	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5320	0.5325	0.5323	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7220	0.6260	0.6596	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.246

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.6
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	3
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	6
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260508_SEA@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	647304
playerID	647304
playerName	Josh Naylor
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	SEA
teamID	25

J.P. Crawford (641487) · BATTER · SS · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 30

All-history rows before 20260509: 30

System season_avg: 0.2120

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2115

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.467	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.467	3.000	0.533	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.245	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.212	0.333	0.038	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.867	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.867	2.000	-0.867	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.067	1.000	-0.067	-1.000
predicted_H	0.800	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.733	1.000	0.267	0.000
predicted_HR	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.432	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.379	0.600	-0.129	-0.350
predicted_R	0.633	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.633	2.000	0.367	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.600	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.367	0.000	0.633	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.033	0.000	-0.033	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.532	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.356	0.333	-0.106	-0.083
predicted_SO	0.700	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.700	1.000	0.300	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.100	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.467	-
predicted_AVG	0.245	-
predicted_BB	0.867	-
predicted_H	0.800	-
predicted_HR	0.310	-
predicted_OBP	0.432	-
predicted_R	0.633	-
predicted_RBI	0.600	-
predicted_SLG	0.532	-
predicted_SO	0.700	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.047	-0.053
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.396	-0.071
predicted_AVG	0.245	-0.000
predicted_BB	1.021	0.154
predicted_H	0.814	0.014
predicted_HBP	0.013	-
predicted_HR	0.313	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.432	0.000
predicted_R	0.744	0.111
predicted_RBI	0.611	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.532	0.000
predicted_SO	0.626	-0.074

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.47), rates preserved: AVG=0.235 HR/AB=0.090

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	4.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	6.000	3.000	0.2500	0.4545	0.6250	0.2500	0.1250	0.2500	0.3750	0.1875
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	9.000	0.000	3.000	5.000	9.000	11.000	5.000	0.2571	0.4348	0.5143	0.2571	0.0857	0.1429	0.3143	0.1429
season	0.20	30	-	104.000	22.000	3.000	4.000	11.000	19.000	26.000	21.000	0.2115	0.3788	0.3558	0.2115	0.0385	0.1058	0.2500	0.2019

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0190
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.3580
predicted_AVG	0.2448
predicted_BB	1.1040
predicted_H	0.8220
predicted_HBP	0.0130
predicted_HR	0.3150
predicted_OBP	0.4325
predicted_R	0.8030
predicted_RBI	0.6170
predicted_SLG	0.5324
predicted_SO	0.5870

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1000	0.0190	0.0473	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4670	3.3580	3.3962	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2450	0.2448	0.2449	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.8670	1.1040	1.0211	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8000	0.8220	0.8143	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0130	0.0130	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3100	0.3150	0.3133	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4320	0.4325	0.4323	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6330	0.8030	0.7435	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6000	0.6170	0.6110	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5320	0.5324	0.5323	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7000	0.5870	0.6265	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.212

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	1
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260508_SEA@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	641487
playerID	641487
playerName	J.P. Crawford
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	SEA
teamID	25

Cal Raleigh (663728) · BATTER · DH · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 35

All-history rows before 20260509: 35

System season_avg: 0.1640

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1643

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.114	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.114	0.000	0.886	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.140	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	5.000	1.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.067	0.200	0.200	Hitting_AVG	0.164	0.000	0.036	0.200
predicted_BB	0.457	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.457	0.000	-0.457	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_H	0.280	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.657	0.000	0.343	1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.149	0.200	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.247	0.000	-0.047	0.200
predicted_R	0.371	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.371	0.000	0.629	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.340	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.486	0.000	0.514	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.057	0.000	-0.057	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.154	0.400	0.400	Hitting_SLG	0.343	0.000	0.057	0.400
predicted_SO	1.371	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.371	1.000	-0.371	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.114	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.140	-
predicted_AVG	0.067	-
predicted_BB	0.457	-
predicted_H	0.280	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.149	-
predicted_R	0.371	-
predicted_RBI	0.340	-
predicted_SLG	0.154	-
predicted_SO	1.371	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.055	-0.059
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.072	-0.068
predicted_AVG	0.067	0.000
predicted_BB	0.428	-0.029
predicted_H	0.274	-0.007
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.109	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.149	0.000
predicted_R	0.245	-0.126
predicted_RBI	0.332	-0.008
predicted_SLG	0.154	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.549	0.178

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.14), rates preserved: AVG=0.066 HR/AB=0.026

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 4.140

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	9.000	0.0000	0.0870	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0500	0.1000	0.4500
last_10	0.35	10	-	41.000	4.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	4.000	16.000	0.0976	0.1739	0.2439	0.0976	0.0488	0.0976	0.0976	0.3902
season	0.20	35	-	140.000	23.000	4.000	7.000	17.000	13.000	16.000	48.000	0.1643	0.2468	0.3429	0.1643	0.0500	0.1214	0.1143	0.3429

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0230
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.0350
predicted_AVG	0.0670
predicted_BB	0.4120
predicted_H	0.2700
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1090
predicted_OBP	0.1494
predicted_R	0.1780
predicted_RBI	0.3270
predicted_SLG	0.1539
predicted_SO	1.6450

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1140	0.0230	0.0548	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1400	4.0350	4.0717	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.0670	0.0670	0.0670	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4570	0.4120	0.4277	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.2800	0.2700	0.2735	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1090	0.1094	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1490	0.1494	0.1493	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3710	0.1780	0.2455	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3400	0.3270	0.3316	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1540	0.1539	0.1539	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3710	1.6450	1.5491	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.164

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260508_SEA@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	663728
playerID	663728
playerName	Cal Raleigh
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	SEA
teamID	25

Mitch Garver (641598) · BATTER · C · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 12

All-history rows before 20260509: 12

System season_avg: 0.1940

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1944

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	2.000	0.000	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.187	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.194	0.000	-0.194	0.000
predicted_BB	0.917	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.917	1.000	0.083	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.520	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.583	0.000	-0.583	0.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.401	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.383	0.333	-0.133	-0.083
predicted_R	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.187	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.194	0.000	-0.194	0.000
predicted_SO	1.083	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.083	2.000	0.917	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.187	-
predicted_BB	0.917	-
predicted_H	0.520	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.401	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.140	-
predicted_SLG	0.187	-
predicted_SO	1.083	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.906	-0.094
predicted_AVG	0.187	0.000
predicted_BB	0.987	0.070
predicted_H	0.529	0.009
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.401	-0.000
predicted_R	0.491	-0.009
predicted_RBI	0.145	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.187	0.000
predicted_SO	1.108	0.025

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.176 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	13.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	6.000	0.1538	0.4211	0.1538	0.1538	0.0769	0.4615	0.4615
last_10	0.35	10	-	31.000	7.000	1.000	6.000	8.000	10.000	0.2258	0.3846	0.2258	0.2258	0.0323	0.2581	0.3226
season	0.20	12	-	36.000	7.000	1.000	6.000	11.000	13.000	0.1944	0.3830	0.1944	0.1944	0.0278	0.3056	0.3611

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.8550
predicted_AVG	0.1871
predicted_BB	1.0250
predicted_H	0.5340
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.4007
predicted_R	0.4860
predicted_RBI	0.1470
predicted_SLG	0.1871
predicted_SO	1.1210

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	2.8550	2.9057	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1870	0.1871	0.1871	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.9170	1.0250	0.9872	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5200	0.5340	0.5291	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4010	0.4007	0.4008	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.4860	0.4909	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1400	0.1470	0.1446	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1870	0.1871	0.1871	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0830	1.1210	1.1077	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.194

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260505_ATL@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	641598
playerID	641598
playerName	Mitch Garver
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	SEA
teamID	25

Julio Rodríguez (677594) · BATTER · CF · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 39

All-history rows before 20260509: 39

System season_avg: 0.2650

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2645

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.179	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.179	0.000	-0.179	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.120	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.974	5.000	1.026	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.266	0.400	0.400	Hitting_AVG	0.265	0.400	0.135	0.000
predicted_BB	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_H	1.100	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	1.051	2.000	0.949	0.000
predicted_HR	0.340	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.154	1.000	0.846	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.300	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.329	0.400	0.071	0.000
predicted_R	0.513	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.513	2.000	0.487	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.540	3.000	3.000	Hitting_RBI	0.462	1.000	2.538	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.557	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SLG	0.426	1.000	0.574	0.000
predicted_SO	0.974	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.974	0.000	0.026	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.179	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.120	-
predicted_AVG	0.266	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	1.100	-
predicted_HR	0.340	-
predicted_OBP	0.300	-
predicted_R	0.513	-
predicted_RBI	0.540	-
predicted_SLG	0.557	-
predicted_SO	0.974	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.176	-0.003
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.165	0.045
predicted_AVG	0.266	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.243	-0.090
predicted_H	1.109	0.009
predicted_HBP	0.011	-
predicted_HR	0.345	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.300	0.000
predicted_R	0.602	0.089
predicted_RBI	0.546	0.006
predicted_SLG	0.557	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.966	-0.008

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.17), rates preserved: AVG=0.266 HR/AB=0.083

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	3.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 4.120

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	5.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	0.2381	0.2727	0.5238	0.2381	0.0952	0.0952	0.0476	0.2381
last_10	0.35	10	-	43.000	13.000	4.000	4.000	8.000	8.000	1.000	9.000	0.3023	0.3182	0.6744	0.3023	0.0930	0.1860	0.0233	0.2093
season	0.20	39	-	155.000	41.000	7.000	6.000	18.000	20.000	13.000	38.000	0.2645	0.3294	0.4258	0.2645	0.0387	0.1161	0.0839	0.2452

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1740
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.1900
predicted_AVG	0.2659
predicted_BB	0.1940
predicted_H	1.1140
predicted_HBP	0.0110
predicted_HR	0.3480
predicted_OBP	0.3000
predicted_R	0.6500
predicted_RBI	0.5500
predicted_SLG	0.5569
predicted_SO	0.9610

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1790	0.1740	0.1757	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1200	4.1900	4.1655	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2660	0.2659	0.2659	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.1940	0.2427	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1000	1.1140	1.1091	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0110	0.0110	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3400	0.3480	0.3452	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3000	0.3000	0.3000	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5130	0.6500	0.6020	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5400	0.5500	0.5465	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5570	0.5569	0.5569	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9740	0.9610	0.9656	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	3
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.265

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260508_SEA@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	677594
playerID	677594
playerName	Julio Rodríguez
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	SEA
teamID	25

Cole Young (702284) · BATTER · 2B · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 39

All-history rows before 20260509: 39

System season_avg: 0.2720

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2721

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.154	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_3B	0.026	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_AB	3.487	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.487	2.000	0.513	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.267	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.272	0.000	-0.272	0.000
predicted_BB	0.308	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.308	0.000	-0.308	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.051	0.000	-0.051	0.000
predicted_H	0.820	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.949	0.000	-0.949	0.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.352	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.346	0.500	-0.346	-0.500
predicted_R	0.513	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.513	0.000	-0.513	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.480	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.538	1.000	-0.538	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.051	0.000	-0.051	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.378	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.397	0.000	-0.397	0.000
predicted_SO	0.974	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.974	2.000	0.026	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.154	-
predicted_3B	0.026	-
predicted_AB	3.487	-
predicted_AVG	0.267	-
predicted_BB	0.308	-
predicted_H	0.820	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.352	-
predicted_R	0.513	-
predicted_RBI	0.480	-
predicted_SLG	0.378	-
predicted_SO	0.974	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.262	0.108
predicted_3B	0.012	-0.014
predicted_AB	3.406	-0.081
predicted_AVG	0.267	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.230	-0.078
predicted_H	0.870	0.050
predicted_HBP	0.276	-
predicted_HR	0.013	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.352	-0.000
predicted_R	0.287	-0.226
predicted_RBI	0.511	0.031
predicted_SLG	0.378	0.000
predicted_SO	1.340	0.366

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.49), rates preserved: AVG=0.249 HR/AB=0.004

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	10.000	0.2500	0.3684	0.3750	0.2500	0.0000	0.1250	0.0625	0.6250
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	10.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	12.000	0.2857	0.3333	0.3714	0.2857	0.0000	0.2000	0.0286	0.3429
season	0.20	39	-	136.000	37.000	6.000	1.000	3.000	21.000	20.000	12.000	38.000	0.2721	0.3464	0.3971	0.2721	0.0221	0.1544	0.0882	0.2794

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3200
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.3620
predicted_AVG	0.2669
predicted_BB	0.1880
predicted_H	0.8970
predicted_HBP	0.2760
predicted_HR	0.0150
predicted_OBP	0.3517
predicted_R	0.1660
predicted_RBI	0.5280
predicted_SLG	0.3782
predicted_SO	1.5370

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1540	0.3200	0.2619	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0260	0.0050	0.0123	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4870	3.3620	3.4058	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2670	0.2669	0.2669	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3080	0.1880	0.2300	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8200	0.8970	0.8700	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.2760	0.2760	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0150	0.0132	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3520	0.3517	0.3518	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5130	0.1660	0.2874	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4800	0.5280	0.5112	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3780	0.3782	0.3781	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9740	1.5370	1.3399	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.272

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	2
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260508_SEA@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	702284
playerID	702284
playerName	Cole Young
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	SEA
teamID	25

Leo Rivas (660844) · BATTER · 3B · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 28

All-history rows before 20260509: 28

System season_avg: 0.1400

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1395

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.071	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.071	1.000	-0.071	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.036	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.036	0.000	-0.036	0.000
predicted_AB	3.071	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.071	3.000	0.929	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.127	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.140	0.333	-0.140	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.464	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.464	0.000	-0.464	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.330	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.429	1.000	-0.429	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.267	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.272	0.333	-0.272	-0.333
predicted_R	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.179	0.000	-0.179	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.036	0.000	-0.036	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.186	0.667	-0.186	-0.667
predicted_SO	1.107	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.107	1.000	-1.107	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.071	-
predicted_3B	0.036	-
predicted_AB	3.071	-
predicted_AVG	0.127	-
predicted_BB	0.464	-
predicted_H	0.330	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.267	-
predicted_R	0.250	-
predicted_RBI	0.030	-
predicted_SLG	0.180	-
predicted_SO	1.107	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.117	0.046
predicted_3B	0.017	-0.019
predicted_AB	2.975	-0.096
predicted_AVG	0.127	0.000
predicted_BB	0.409	-0.055
predicted_H	0.357	0.027
predicted_HBP	0.183	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.267	-0.000
predicted_R	0.307	0.057
predicted_RBI	0.033	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.180	0.000
predicted_SO	1.074	-0.033

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.07), rates preserved: AVG=0.116 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	0.1429	0.2941	0.2143	0.1429	0.0000	0.1429	0.3571
last_10	0.35	10	-	30.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	11.000	0.1000	0.2286	0.1333	0.1000	0.0000	0.1000	0.3667
season	0.20	28	-	86.000	12.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	7.000	13.000	31.000	0.1395	0.2718	0.1860	0.1395	0.0581	0.1512	0.3605

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1420
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	2.9240
predicted_AVG	0.1272
predicted_BB	0.3790
predicted_H	0.3720
predicted_HBP	0.1830
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.2667
predicted_R	0.3380
predicted_RBI	0.0340
predicted_SLG	0.1803
predicted_SO	1.0560

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0710	0.1420	0.1171	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0360	0.0070	0.0171	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0710	2.9240	2.9755	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1270	0.1272	0.1271	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4640	0.3790	0.4088	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3300	0.3720	0.3573	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1830	0.1830	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2670	0.2667	0.2668	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2500	0.3380	0.3072	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0300	0.0340	0.0326	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1800	0.1803	0.1802	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1070	1.0560	1.0738	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260506_ATL@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	660844
playerID	660844
playerName	Leo Rivas
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	SEA
teamID	25

Randy Arozarena (668227) · BATTER · LF · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 39

All-history rows before 20260509: 39

System season_avg: 0.2790

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2786

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.231	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.231	0.000	-0.231	0.000
predicted_3B	0.026	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_AB	3.590	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.590	4.000	1.410	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.274	0.400	0.400	Hitting_AVG	0.279	0.750	0.121	-0.350
predicted_BB	0.436	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.436	0.000	-0.436	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_H	0.960	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	1.000	3.000	1.000	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.360	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.368	0.800	0.032	-0.400
predicted_R	0.667	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.667	2.000	0.333	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.308	0.000	-0.308	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.231	1.000	-0.231	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.363	0.400	0.400	Hitting_SLG	0.421	0.750	-0.021	-0.350
predicted_SO	0.949	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.949	0.000	1.051	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.231	-
predicted_3B	0.026	-
predicted_AB	3.590	-
predicted_AVG	0.274	-
predicted_BB	0.436	-
predicted_H	0.960	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.360	-
predicted_R	0.667	-
predicted_RBI	0.090	-
predicted_SLG	0.363	-
predicted_SO	0.949	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.135	-0.096
predicted_3B	0.036	0.010
predicted_AB	3.631	0.041
predicted_AVG	0.274	0.000
predicted_BB	0.385	-0.051
predicted_H	0.987	0.027
predicted_HBP	0.144	-
predicted_HR	0.051	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.360	0.000
predicted_R	0.657	-0.010
predicted_RBI	0.096	0.006
predicted_SLG	0.363	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.944	-0.005

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.63), rates preserved: AVG=0.272 HR/AB=0.014

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	0.2632	0.3333	0.2632	0.2632	0.0000	0.0000	0.0526	0.2105
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	10.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	5.000	11.000	0.2857	0.3902	0.4571	0.2857	0.0286	0.0286	0.1429	0.3143
season	0.20	39	-	140.000	39.000	9.000	1.000	3.000	12.000	26.000	17.000	37.000	0.2786	0.3681	0.4214	0.2786	0.0214	0.0857	0.1214	0.2643

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0830
predicted_3B	0.0420
predicted_AB	3.6530
predicted_AVG	0.2742
predicted_BB	0.3580
predicted_H	1.0010
predicted_HBP	0.1440
predicted_HR	0.0520
predicted_OBP	0.3602
predicted_R	0.6510
predicted_RBI	0.0990
predicted_SLG	0.3627
predicted_SO	0.9410

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2310	0.0830	0.1348	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0260	0.0420	0.0364	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5900	3.6530	3.6309	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2740	0.2742	0.2741	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4360	0.3580	0.3853	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9600	1.0010	0.9866	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1440	0.1440	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0520	0.0513	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3600	0.3602	0.3601	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6670	0.6510	0.6566	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0900	0.0990	0.0959	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3630	0.3627	0.3628	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9490	0.9410	0.9438	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.279

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.75
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260508_SEA@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	668227
playerID	668227
playerName	Randy Arozarena
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	SEA
teamID	25

Luis Castillo (622491) · PITCHER · Starter · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 7

All-history rows before 20260509: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	5.000	5.000	-	Pitching_ER	3.429	4.000	1.571	1.000
predicted_IP	3.100	3.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.771	6.000	-1.671	-2.900
predicted_SO	7.000	7.000	-	Pitching_SO	4.429	5.000	2.571	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 3.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	24.200	21.000	35.000	10.000	20.000	4.000	7.6622	1.8243	0.8514	1.4189	0.4054	0.8108	0.1622
last_10	0.35	7	34.100	24.000	44.000	13.000	31.000	4.000	6.2913	1.6602	0.6990	1.2815	0.3786	0.9029	0.1165
season	0.20	7	34.100	24.000	44.000	13.000	31.000	4.000	6.2913	1.6602	0.6990	1.2815	0.3786	0.9029	0.1165

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.9530
predicted_ER	3.8380
predicted_ERA	6.9082
predicted_H	6.7170
predicted_HR	0.6850
predicted_IP	5.0000
predicted_SO	4.3070
predicted_WHIP	1.7340

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	4.0000	1.9530	2.6695	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	5.0000	3.8380	4.2447	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	6.9082	6.9082	form_only
predicted_H	10.0000	6.7170	7.8660	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	2.0000	0.6850	1.1452	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	3.1000	5.0000	4.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	7.0000	4.3070	5.2496	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.7340	1.7340	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	3.1
H	10
R	5
ER	5
BB	4
SO	7
HR	2
BF	26
Pitches	111

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	26
Pitching_ER	4
Pitching_ERA	6.29
Pitching_Flyouts	8
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	6
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	101
Pitching_R	4
Pitching_SO	5
Pitching_Strikes	62
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_KC@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	622491
playerID	622491
playerName	Luis Castillo
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	SEA
teamID	25

Andrés Muñoz (662253) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 16

All-history rows before 20260509: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.625	1.000	-0.625	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.894	1.000	0.206	0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.562	2.000	-1.562	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	8.000	1.000	3.6000	1.2000	0.4000	0.8000	0.4000	1.6000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	8.000	10.000	3.000	16.000	2.000	8.0000	1.4444	0.8889	1.1111	0.3333	1.7778	0.2222
season	0.20	16	15.000	10.000	14.000	7.000	25.000	3.000	6.0000	1.4000	0.6667	0.9333	0.4667	1.6667	0.2000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3900
predicted_ER	0.6240
predicted_ERA	5.6200
predicted_H	0.9360
predicted_HR	0.2080
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.6760
predicted_WHIP	1.3255

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3900	0.2535	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.6240	0.4056	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.6200	5.6200	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9360	0.6084	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2080	0.1352	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.0000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.6760	1.0894	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3255	1.3255	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	6.00
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	23
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_ATL@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	662253
playerID	662253
playerName	Andrés Muñoz
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SEA
teamID	25

José A. Ferrer (678606) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 20

All-history rows before 20260509: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.845	1.000	0.255	0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.800	1.000	-0.800	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	1.000	4.000	0.000	6.000	1.8000	0.8000	0.2000	0.8000	0.0000	1.2000
last_10	0.35	10	11.100	1.000	11.000	2.000	9.000	0.7941	1.1471	0.0882	0.9706	0.1765	0.7941
season	0.20	19	19.000	4.000	22.000	3.000	16.000	1.8947	1.3158	0.2105	1.1579	0.1579	0.8421

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.0930
predicted_ER	0.1630
predicted_ERA	1.4669
predicted_H	0.9310
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9860
predicted_WHIP	1.0246

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0930	0.0605	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1630	0.1060	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.4669	1.4669	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9310	0.6052	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.0000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.9860	0.6409	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0246	1.0246	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	10

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.89
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_ATL@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	678606
playerID	678606
playerName	José A. Ferrer
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SEA
teamID	25

Cooper Criswell (681867) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 13

All-history rows before 20260509: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.308	0.000	-0.308
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.238	1.000	-0.238
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.154	1.000	-0.154

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	2.000	3.000	0.000	6.000	1.000	3.3750	0.5625	0.3750	0.5625	0.0000	1.1250	0.1875
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	2.000	7.000	2.000	8.000	1.000	1.7419	0.8710	0.1935	0.6774	0.1935	0.7742	0.0968
season	0.20	13	16.100	4.000	11.000	3.000	15.000	3.000	2.2041	0.8571	0.2449	0.6735	0.1837	0.9184	0.1837

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1110
predicted_ER	0.3050
predicted_ERA	2.5692
predicted_H	0.6670
predicted_HR	0.1650
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0250
predicted_WHIP	0.7294

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1110	0.0722	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3050	0.1983	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.5692	2.5692	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6670	0.4336	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1650	0.1073	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0250	1.0162	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.7294	0.7294	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	9

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.20
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_ATL@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	681867
playerID	681867
playerName	Cooper Criswell
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SEA
teamID	25

Eduard Bazardo (660825) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 19

All-history rows before 20260509: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.158	0.000	-0.158	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.758	1.000	0.242	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.684	0.000	0.316	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	1.000	6.000	0.000	3.000	2.0769	1.3846	0.2308	1.3846	0.0000	0.6923
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	2.000	9.000	2.000	5.000	1.9286	1.1786	0.2143	0.9643	0.2143	0.5357
season	0.20	19	17.200	3.000	15.000	5.000	13.000	1.5283	1.1321	0.1698	0.8491	0.2830	0.7359

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1320
predicted_ER	0.2130
predicted_ERA	1.9153
predicted_H	1.1300
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.6460
predicted_WHIP	1.2620

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1320	0.0858	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2130	0.1384	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.9153	1.9153	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.1300	0.7345	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.6460	0.7699	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2620	1.2620	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	1
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.53
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_SEA@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	660825
playerID	660825
playerName	Eduard Bazardo
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SEA
teamID	25

Alex Hoppe (695380) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 4

All-history rows before 20260509: 4

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.250	2.000	-0.250	-1.000
predicted_IP	0.100	0.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.050	1.000	-0.950	-0.900
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	2.000	1.000	-1.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 4

Reference playing time: 0.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	4	4.200	5.000	6.000	3.000	8.000	9.6429	1.9286	1.0714	1.2857	0.6429	1.7143
last_10	0.35	4	4.200	5.000	6.000	3.000	8.000	9.6429	1.9286	1.0714	1.2857	0.6429	1.7143
season	0.20	4	4.200	5.000	6.000	3.000	8.000	9.6429	1.9286	1.0714	1.2857	0.6429	1.7143

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.8570
predicted_ER	1.4290
predicted_ERA	9.6429
predicted_H	1.7140
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	2.2860
predicted_WHIP	1.9286

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.8570	0.5571	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	1.4290	1.2789	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	9.6429	9.6429	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.7140	1.1141	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	1.1000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	2.2860	1.8359	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.9286	1.9286	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	4
Season rows before report date	4
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	4
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.1
H	0
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	9.64
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	22
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	15
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_SEA@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	695380
playerID	695380
playerName	Alex Hoppe
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SEA
teamID	25

Josh Simpson (681006) · PITCHER · Reliever · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 1

All-history rows before 20260509: 1

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.000	1.000	0.200	0.200
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	2.000	2.000	-2.000	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	1	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	9.0000	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	2.0000	1.0000
last_10	0.35	1	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	9.0000	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	2.0000	1.0000
season	0.20	1	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	9.0000	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	2.0000	1.0000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.0000
predicted_ER	1.0000
predicted_ERA	9.0000
predicted_H	1.0000
predicted_HR	1.0000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	2.0000
predicted_WHIP	1.0000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.0000	0.7000	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	1.0000	1.3500	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	9.0000	9.0000	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	1.0000	0.6500	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.0000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	2.0000	1.3000	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0000	1.0000	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	1
R	2
ER	2
BB	2
SO	0
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	31

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	9.00
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_SEA@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	681006
playerID	681006
playerName	Josh Simpson
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SEA
teamID	25

Home Team: CHW

Chase Meidroth (805367) · BATTER · 2B · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 35

All-history rows before 20260509: 35

System season_avg: 0.2810

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2815

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.229	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.229	1.000	-0.229	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.857	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.857	4.000	-0.857	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.339	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.281	0.250	0.052	0.083
predicted_BB	0.457	2.000	2.000	Hitting_BB	0.457	0.000	1.543	2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.270	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.086	1.000	-0.086	0.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.057	0.000	-0.057	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.382	0.600	0.600	Hitting_OBP	0.355	0.250	0.245	0.350
predicted_R	0.686	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.686	0.000	0.314	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.250	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.143	0.000	0.857	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.496	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.385	0.500	-0.052	-0.167
predicted_SO	1.086	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.086	2.000	-0.086	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.229	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.857	-
predicted_AVG	0.339	-
predicted_BB	0.457	-
predicted_H	1.270	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.382	-
predicted_R	0.686	-
predicted_RBI	0.250	-
predicted_SLG	0.496	-
predicted_SO	1.086	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.237	0.008
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.012	0.155
predicted_AVG	0.339	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.348	-0.109
predicted_H	1.346	0.076
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.130	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.382	0.000
predicted_R	0.745	0.059
predicted_RBI	0.267	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.496	0.000
predicted_SO	1.464	0.378

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.01), rates preserved: AVG=0.335 HR/AB=0.032

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	2.000	2.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.857

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	10.000	0.3810	0.4091	0.5714	0.3810	0.0476	0.0952	0.0476	0.4762
last_10	0.35	10	-	41.000	13.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	8.000	3.000	16.000	0.3171	0.3636	0.4634	0.3171	0.0244	0.0488	0.0732	0.3902
season	0.20	35	-	135.000	38.000	8.000	2.000	5.000	24.000	16.000	38.000	0.2815	0.3553	0.3852	0.2815	0.0148	0.0370	0.1185	0.2815

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2410
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.0960
predicted_AVG	0.3387
predicted_BB	0.2900
predicted_H	1.3870
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1350
predicted_OBP	0.3824
predicted_R	0.7770
predicted_RBI	0.2760
predicted_SLG	0.4964
predicted_SO	1.6680

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2290	0.2410	0.2368	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8570	4.0960	4.0124	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3390	0.3387	0.3388	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4570	0.2900	0.3485	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2700	1.3870	1.3460	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1350	0.1298	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3820	0.3824	0.3823	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6860	0.7770	0.7451	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2500	0.2760	0.2669	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4960	0.4964	0.4963	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0860	1.6680	1.4643	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	2
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.281

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260508_SEA@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	805367
playerID	805367
playerName	Chase Meidroth
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	CHW
teamID	6

Colson Montgomery (695657) · BATTER · SS · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 36

All-history rows before 20260509: 36

System season_avg: 0.2240

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2239

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.222	1.000	-0.222	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.770	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.722	5.000	1.278	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.216	0.400	0.400	Hitting_AVG	0.224	0.200	0.176	0.200
predicted_BB	0.389	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.389	0.000	-0.389	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_H	0.810	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.833	1.000	1.167	1.000
predicted_HR	0.120	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.250	0.000	0.750	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.314	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.329	0.200	0.071	0.200
predicted_R	0.444	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.444	0.000	0.556	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.720	3.000	3.000	Hitting_RBI	0.722	3.000	2.278	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.416	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SLG	0.485	0.400	0.515	0.600
predicted_SO	1.250	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.250	2.000	-0.250	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.222	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.770	-
predicted_AVG	0.216	-
predicted_BB	0.389	-
predicted_H	0.810	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.314	-
predicted_R	0.444	-
predicted_RBI	0.720	-
predicted_SLG	0.416	-
predicted_SO	1.250	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.348	0.126
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.860	0.090
predicted_AVG	0.216	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.475	0.086
predicted_H	0.832	0.021
predicted_HBP	0.041	-
predicted_HR	0.122	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.314	0.000
predicted_R	0.365	-0.079
predicted_RBI	0.739	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.416	0.000
predicted_SO	1.316	0.066

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.86), rates preserved: AVG=0.215 HR/AB=0.032

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	3.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	4.000	3.000	0.000	4.000	1.000	3.000	8.000	0.2000	0.3043	0.3500	0.2000	0.0000	0.2000	0.1500	0.4000
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	9.000	3.000	2.000	7.000	4.000	5.000	11.000	0.2308	0.3182	0.4615	0.2308	0.0513	0.1795	0.1282	0.2821
season	0.20	36	-	134.000	30.000	8.000	9.000	26.000	16.000	14.000	45.000	0.2239	0.3290	0.4851	0.2239	0.0672	0.1940	0.1045	0.3358

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.4160
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.9090
predicted_AVG	0.2156
predicted_BB	0.5210
predicted_H	0.8430
predicted_HBP	0.0410
predicted_HR	0.1230
predicted_OBP	0.3141
predicted_R	0.3220
predicted_RBI	0.7490
predicted_SLG	0.4160
predicted_SO	1.3520

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2220	0.4160	0.3481	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7700	3.9090	3.8603	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2160	0.2156	0.2157	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3890	0.5210	0.4748	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8100	0.8430	0.8315	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0410	0.0410	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1230	0.1220	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3140	0.3141	0.3141	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4440	0.3220	0.3647	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7200	0.7490	0.7389	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4160	0.4160	0.4160	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2500	1.3520	1.3163	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	3
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.224

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260508_SEA@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	695657
playerID	695657
playerName	Colson Montgomery
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	CHW
teamID	6

Miguel Vargas (678246) · BATTER · 3B · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 35

All-history rows before 20260509: 35

System season_avg: 0.2150

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2154

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.114	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.114	0.000	-0.114	0.000
predicted_3B	0.029	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_AB	3.860	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.714	3.000	1.286	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.213	0.200	0.200	Hitting_AVG	0.215	0.333	-0.015	-0.133
predicted_BB	0.743	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.743	1.000	-0.743	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.820	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.800	1.000	0.200	0.000
predicted_HR	0.210	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.357	0.200	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.356	0.600	-0.156	-0.400
predicted_R	0.743	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.743	2.000	0.257	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.560	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.514	0.000	-0.514	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.171	0.000	-0.171	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.383	0.200	0.200	Hitting_SLG	0.423	0.333	-0.223	-0.133
predicted_SO	0.714	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.714	0.000	1.286	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.114	-
predicted_3B	0.029	-
predicted_AB	3.860	-
predicted_AVG	0.213	-
predicted_BB	0.743	-
predicted_H	0.820	-
predicted_HR	0.210	-
predicted_OBP	0.357	-
predicted_R	0.743	-
predicted_RBI	0.560	-
predicted_SLG	0.383	-
predicted_SO	0.714	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.055	-0.059
predicted_3B	0.014	-0.015
predicted_AB	3.787	-0.073
predicted_AVG	0.213	0.000
predicted_BB	0.715	-0.028
predicted_H	0.807	-0.013
predicted_HBP	0.142	-
predicted_HR	0.203	-0.007
predicted_OBP	0.357	0.000
predicted_R	0.727	-0.016
predicted_RBI	0.551	-0.009
predicted_SLG	0.383	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.724	0.010

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.86), rates preserved: AVG=0.209 HR/AB=0.053

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.860

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	3.000	3.000	0.2105	0.3478	0.3684	0.2105	0.0526	0.1579	0.1579	0.1579
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	8.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	6.000	8.000	9.000	0.2162	0.3696	0.3784	0.2162	0.0541	0.1351	0.2162	0.2432
season	0.20	35	-	130.000	28.000	4.000	1.000	7.000	18.000	26.000	26.000	25.000	0.2154	0.3563	0.4231	0.2154	0.0539	0.1385	0.2000	0.1923

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0230
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.7480
predicted_AVG	0.2135
predicted_BB	0.7000
predicted_H	0.8000
predicted_HBP	0.1420
predicted_HR	0.2000
predicted_OBP	0.3571
predicted_R	0.7180
predicted_RBI	0.5470
predicted_SLG	0.3828
predicted_SO	0.7300

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1140	0.0230	0.0548	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0290	0.0060	0.0140	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8600	3.7480	3.7872	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2130	0.2135	0.2133	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7430	0.7000	0.7150	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8200	0.8000	0.8070	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1420	0.1420	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2100	0.2000	0.2035	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3570	0.3571	0.3571	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7430	0.7180	0.7268	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5600	0.5470	0.5515	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3830	0.3828	0.3829	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7140	0.7300	0.7244	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.215

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260508_SEA@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	678246
playerID	678246
playerName	Miguel Vargas
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	CHW
teamID	6

Sam Antonacci (803011) · BATTER · LF · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 18

All-history rows before 20260509: 18

System season_avg: 0.2580

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2581

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_3B	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_AB	3.810	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.444	4.000	1.556	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.294	0.400	0.400	Hitting_AVG	0.258	0.500	0.142	-0.100
predicted_BB	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_H	1.120	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.889	2.000	1.111	0.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.413	0.333	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.373	0.500	-0.040	-0.167
predicted_R	0.556	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.556	1.000	0.444	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	1.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.353	0.400	0.400	Hitting_SLG	0.403	0.500	-0.003	-0.100
predicted_SO	0.389	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.389	0.000	0.611	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	-
predicted_3B	0.111	-
predicted_AB	3.810	-
predicted_AVG	0.294	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	1.120	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.413	-
predicted_R	0.556	-
predicted_RBI	0.500	-
predicted_SLG	0.353	-
predicted_SO	0.389	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.076	-0.035
predicted_3B	0.076	-0.035
predicted_AB	3.572	-0.238
predicted_AVG	0.294	0.000
predicted_BB	0.345	0.012
predicted_H	1.050	-0.070
predicted_HBP	0.352	-
predicted_HR	0.011	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.413	-0.000
predicted_R	0.602	0.045
predicted_RBI	0.471	-0.029
predicted_SLG	0.353	0.000
predicted_SO	0.476	0.087

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.81), rates preserved: AVG=0.276 HR/AB=0.003

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	6.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	1.000	1.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 3.810

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	0.2941	0.4286	0.2941	0.2941	0.0000	0.1177	0.1177	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	11.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	5.000	7.000	3.000	5.000	0.3143	0.4146	0.4000	0.3143	0.0000	0.1429	0.0857	0.1429
season	0.20	18	-	62.000	16.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	9.000	10.000	6.000	7.000	0.2581	0.3733	0.4032	0.2581	0.0161	0.1452	0.0968	0.1129

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0570
predicted_3B	0.0570
predicted_AB	3.4440
predicted_AVG	0.2940
predicted_BB	0.3520
predicted_H	1.0120
predicted_HBP	0.3520
predicted_HR	0.0110
predicted_OBP	0.4126
predicted_R	0.6260
predicted_RBI	0.4550
predicted_SLG	0.3530
predicted_SO	0.5230

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1110	0.0570	0.0759	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.1110	0.0570	0.0759	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8100	3.4440	3.5721	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2940	0.2940	0.2940	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.3520	0.3453	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1200	1.0120	1.0498	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.3520	0.3520	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0110	0.0106	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4130	0.4126	0.4127	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5560	0.6260	0.6015	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5000	0.4550	0.4708	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3530	0.3530	0.3530	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3890	0.5230	0.4761	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	6
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	1
HBP	0
season_avg	0.258

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	1
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260508_SEA@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	803011
playerID	803011
playerName	Sam Antonacci
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	CHW
teamID	6

Jarred Kelenic (672284) · BATTER · RF · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 5

All-history rows before 20260509: 5

System season_avg: 0.3330

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3333

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	4.000	2.000	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.333	0.200	0.200	Hitting_AVG	0.333	0.250	-0.133	-0.050
predicted_BB	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.950	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.375	0.200	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.375	0.250	-0.175	-0.050
predicted_R	0.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.200	1.000	-0.200	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.333	0.200	0.200	Hitting_SLG	0.333	0.250	-0.133	-0.050
predicted_SO	0.000	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.333	-
predicted_BB	0.200	-
predicted_H	0.950	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.375	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.190	-
predicted_SLG	0.333	-
predicted_SO	0.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.333	0.000
predicted_BB	0.200	0.000
predicted_H	0.983	0.033
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.375	0.000
predicted_R	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.197	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.333	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.328 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	2.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 5

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total RBI	Total BB	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	0.3333	0.3750	0.3333	0.3333	0.0667	0.0667
last_10	0.35	5	-	15.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	0.3333	0.3750	0.3333	0.3333	0.0667	0.0667
season	0.20	5	-	15.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	0.3333	0.3750	0.3333	0.3333	0.0667	0.0667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.0000
predicted_AVG	0.3333
predicted_BB	0.2000
predicted_H	1.0000
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.3750
predicted_R	0.0000
predicted_RBI	0.2000
predicted_SLG	0.3333
predicted_SO	0.0000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.0000	3.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3330	0.3333	0.3332	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9500	1.0000	0.9825	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3750	0.3750	0.3750	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1900	0.2000	0.1965	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3330	0.3333	0.3332	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	5
Season rows before report date	5
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	5
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.333

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260508_SEA@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	672284
playerID	672284
playerName	Jarred Kelenic
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	CHW
teamID	6

Randal Grichuk (545341) · BATTER · DH · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 0

All-history rows before 20260509: 0

System season_avg: 0.1790

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): -

Diff (system - data): -

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	-	-	-	-
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	-	-	-	-
predicted_AB	2.800	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	-	-	-	-
predicted_AVG	0.239	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	-	-	-	-
predicted_BB	0.100	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	-	-	-	-
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	-	-	-	-
predicted_H	0.590	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	-	-	-	-
predicted_HR	0.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	-	-	-	-
predicted_OBP	0.251	0.600	0.600	Hitting_OBP	-	-	-	-
predicted_R	0.300	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	-	-	-	-
predicted_RBI	0.230	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	-	-	-	-
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	-	-	-	-
predicted_SLG	0.382	1.250	1.250	Hitting_SLG	-	-	-	-
predicted_SO	1.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	-	-	-	-

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.300	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.800	-
predicted_AVG	0.239	-
predicted_BB	0.100	-
predicted_H	0.590	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.251	-
predicted_R	0.300	-
predicted_RBI	0.230	-
predicted_SLG	0.382	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.383	0.083
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.917	0.117
predicted_AVG	0.239	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.073	-0.027
predicted_H	0.669	0.079
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.251	-0.000
predicted_R	0.328	0.028
predicted_RBI	0.266	0.036
predicted_SLG	0.382	0.000
predicted_SO	0.949	-0.051

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.92), rates preserved: AVG=0.229 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 10

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	5.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	0.3125	0.3125	0.5000	0.3125	0.1250	0.0000	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	28.000	5.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	10.000	0.1786	0.2000	0.2857	0.1786	0.0714	0.0357	0.3571
season	0.20	10	-	28.000	5.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	10.000	0.1786	0.2000	0.2857	0.1786	0.0714	0.0357	0.3571

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.4270
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.9800
predicted_AVG	0.2389
predicted_BB	0.0590
predicted_H	0.7120
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.2506
predicted_R	0.3430
predicted_RBI	0.2850
predicted_SLG	0.3821
predicted_SO	0.9210

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3000	0.4270	0.3826	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.8000	2.9800	2.9170	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2390	0.2389	0.2389	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1000	0.0590	0.0733	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5900	0.7120	0.6693	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2510	0.2506	0.2507	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3000	0.3430	0.3280	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2300	0.2850	0.2657	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3820	0.3821	0.3821	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9210	0.9486	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	0
Season rows before report date	0
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	10
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.179

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

No historical data found for this player before report date.

Munetaka Murakami (808959) · BATTER · 1B · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 36

All-history rows before 20260509: 36

System season_avg: 0.2350

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2348

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.028	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.790	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.667	4.000	1.333	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.211	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.235	0.250	-0.235	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.806	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.806	1.000	0.194	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_H	0.800	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.861	1.000	-0.861	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.417	1.000	-0.417	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.314	0.167	0.167	Hitting_OBP	0.370	0.400	-0.204	-0.233
predicted_R	0.778	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.778	2.000	0.222	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.740	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.806	1.000	-0.806	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.558	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.583	1.000	-0.583	-1.000
predicted_SO	1.528	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.528	2.000	0.472	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.028	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.790	-
predicted_AVG	0.211	-
predicted_BB	0.806	-
predicted_H	0.800	-
predicted_HR	0.400	-
predicted_OBP	0.314	-
predicted_R	0.778	-
predicted_RBI	0.740	-
predicted_SLG	0.558	-
predicted_SO	1.528	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.093	0.065
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.837	0.047
predicted_AVG	0.211	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.668	-0.138
predicted_H	0.809	0.009
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.403	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.314	-0.000
predicted_R	0.846	0.068
predicted_RBI	0.747	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.558	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.702	0.174

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.84), rates preserved: AVG=0.211 HR/AB=0.105

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	6.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	2.000	10.000	0.2000	0.2727	0.5500	0.2000	0.1000	0.1500	0.1000	0.5000
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	8.000	1.000	4.000	9.000	8.000	7.000	17.000	0.2105	0.3333	0.5526	0.2105	0.1053	0.2368	0.1842	0.4474
season	0.20	36	-	132.000	31.000	1.000	15.000	29.000	28.000	29.000	55.000	0.2348	0.3704	0.5833	0.2349	0.1136	0.2197	0.2197	0.4167

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1280
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.8630
predicted_AVG	0.2106
predicted_BB	0.5930
predicted_H	0.8140
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.4040
predicted_OBP	0.3135
predicted_R	0.8830
predicted_RBI	0.7510
predicted_SLG	0.5576
predicted_SO	1.7960

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0280	0.1280	0.0930	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7900	3.8630	3.8375	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2110	0.2106	0.2107	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.8060	0.5930	0.6676	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8000	0.8140	0.8091	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.4000	0.4040	0.4026	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3140	0.3135	0.3137	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7780	0.8830	0.8463	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7400	0.7510	0.7471	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5580	0.5576	0.5577	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.5280	1.7960	1.7022	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	6
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.235

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260508_SEA@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	808959
playerID	808959
playerName	Munetaka Murakami
pos	IF
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	CHW
teamID	6

Tristan Peters (671976) · BATTER · CF · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 25

All-history rows before 20260509: 25

System season_avg: 0.2570

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2568

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.080	1.000	-0.080	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.960	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	2.960	3.000	1.040	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.243	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.257	0.333	0.243	0.167
predicted_BB	0.280	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.280	1.000	0.720	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.660	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.760	1.000	1.240	1.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.327	0.600	0.600	Hitting_OBP	0.321	0.500	0.279	0.100
predicted_R	0.280	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.280	1.000	0.720	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.200	1.000	0.800	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.120	0.000	-0.120	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.295	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.284	0.667	0.216	-0.167
predicted_SO	0.720	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.720	0.000	-0.720	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.080	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.960	-
predicted_AVG	0.243	-
predicted_BB	0.280	-
predicted_H	0.660	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.327	-
predicted_R	0.280	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.295	-
predicted_SO	0.720	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.122	0.042
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.818	-0.142
predicted_AVG	0.243	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.322	0.042
predicted_H	0.663	0.003
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.327	0.000
predicted_R	0.366	0.086
predicted_RBI	0.363	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.295	0.000
predicted_SO	0.635	-0.085

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.96), rates preserved: AVG=0.224 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 25

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	13.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	0.2308	0.3333	0.3077	0.2308	0.1538	0.1538	0.2308
last_10	0.35	10	-	28.000	7.000	1.000	4.000	5.000	3.000	5.000	0.2500	0.3226	0.2857	0.2500	0.1429	0.1071	0.1786
season	0.20	25	-	74.000	19.000	2.000	5.000	7.000	7.000	18.000	0.2568	0.3210	0.2838	0.2568	0.0676	0.0946	0.2432

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1440
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.7420
predicted_AVG	0.2427
predicted_BB	0.3450
predicted_H	0.6650
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.3271
predicted_R	0.4130
predicted_RBI	0.3640
predicted_SLG	0.2952
predicted_SO	0.5900

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0800	0.1440	0.1216	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.9600	2.7420	2.8183	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2430	0.2427	0.2428	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2800	0.3450	0.3222	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6600	0.6650	0.6633	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3270	0.3271	0.3271	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2800	0.4130	0.3665	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.3640	0.3626	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2950	0.2952	0.2951	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7200	0.5900	0.6355	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	25
Season rows before report date	25
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	25
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.257

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260508_SEA@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	671976
playerID	671976
playerName	Tristan Peters
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	CHW
teamID	6

Edgar Quero (700337) · BATTER · C · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 22

All-history rows before 20260509: 22

System season_avg: 0.1580

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1579

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.045	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.045	0.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.455	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.455	4.000	0.545	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.165	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.158	0.000	-0.158	0.000
predicted_BB	0.364	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.364	0.000	0.636	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.480	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.545	0.000	-0.545	0.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.222	0.200	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.241	0.000	-0.041	0.200
predicted_R	0.091	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.273	1.000	-0.273	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.045	0.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.177	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.171	0.000	-0.171	0.000
predicted_SO	0.909	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.909	2.000	0.091	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.045	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.455	-
predicted_AVG	0.165	-
predicted_BB	0.364	-
predicted_H	0.480	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.222	-
predicted_R	0.091	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.177	-
predicted_SO	0.909	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.044	-0.001
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.530	0.075
predicted_AVG	0.165	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.244	-0.120
predicted_H	0.551	0.071
predicted_HBP	0.133	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.222	-0.000
predicted_R	0.125	0.034
predicted_RBI	0.414	0.054
predicted_SLG	0.177	0.000
predicted_SO	1.036	0.127

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.53), rates preserved: AVG=0.156 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	6.000	0.1667	0.2000	0.1667	0.1667	0.1111	0.0000	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	6.000	1.000	6.000	1.000	3.000	11.000	0.1667	0.2381	0.1944	0.1667	0.1667	0.0833	0.3056
season	0.20	22	-	76.000	12.000	1.000	6.000	2.000	8.000	20.000	0.1579	0.2414	0.1711	0.1579	0.0790	0.1053	0.2632

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0440
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.5710
predicted_AVG	0.1649
predicted_BB	0.1790
predicted_H	0.5890
predicted_HBP	0.1330
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.2216
predicted_R	0.1430
predicted_RBI	0.4430
predicted_SLG	0.1773
predicted_SO	1.1050

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0450	0.0440	0.0444	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4550	3.5710	3.5304	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1650	0.1649	0.1649	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3640	0.1790	0.2437	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4800	0.5890	0.5508	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1330	0.1330	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2220	0.2216	0.2217	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0910	0.1430	0.1248	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.4430	0.4140	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1770	0.1773	0.1772	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9090	1.1050	1.0364	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.158

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260505_CHW@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	700337
playerID	700337
playerName	Edgar Quero
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	CHW
teamID	6

Anthony Kay (641743) · PITCHER · Starter · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 7

All-history rows before 20260509: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	2.714	2.000	-0.714	0.000
predicted_IP	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	3.986	5.000	-1.986	-3.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	2.857	5.000	-0.857	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 2.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	21.000	15.000	29.000	9.000	15.000	4.000	6.4286	1.8095	0.7143	1.3809	0.4286	0.7143	0.1905
last_10	0.35	7	30.000	19.000	35.000	15.000	20.000	6.000	5.7000	1.6667	0.6333	1.1667	0.5000	0.6667	0.2000
season	0.20	7	30.000	19.000	35.000	15.000	20.000	6.000	5.7000	1.6667	0.6333	1.1667	0.5000	0.6667	0.2000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.0270
predicted_ER	2.9020
predicted_ERA	6.0279
predicted_H	5.4730
predicted_HR	0.8480
predicted_IP	4.1000
predicted_SO	2.9820
predicted_WHIP	1.7310

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	2.0270	1.6676	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.9020	2.5863	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	6.0279	6.0279	form_only
predicted_H	9.0000	5.4730	6.7074	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.8480	0.9012	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	2.0000	4.1000	3.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	2.9820	2.6383	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.7310	1.7310	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.0
H	9
R	2
ER	2
BB	1
SO	2
HR	1
BF	16
Pitches	67

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	21
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	5.70
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	6
Pitching_H	7
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.0
Pitching_Pitches	86
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	5
Pitching_Strikes	53
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_CHW@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	641743
playerID	641743
playerName	Anthony Kay
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	CHW
teamID	6

Bryan Hudson (663542) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 12

All-history rows before 20260509: 12

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.167	0.000	0.833	1.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.817	1.000	0.383	0.200
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.250	1.000	-0.250	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	5.000	4.000	7.000	0.0000	1.8000	0.0000	1.0000	0.8000	1.4000
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	0.000	8.000	5.000	12.000	0.0000	1.3929	0.0000	0.8571	0.5357	1.2857
season	0.20	12	11.200	2.000	11.000	8.000	15.000	1.5429	1.6286	0.1714	0.9429	0.6857	1.2857

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6850
predicted_ER	0.0340
predicted_ERA	0.3086
predicted_H	0.9390
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.3370
predicted_WHIP	1.6232

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.6850	0.4453	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.0340	0.3721	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.3086	0.3086	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.9390	0.9603	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0000	0.3500	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.0000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.3370	1.2190	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.6232	1.6232	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	1
HR	1
BF	4
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	1
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.54
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260424_WAS@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	663542
playerID	663542
playerName	Bryan Hudson
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	CHW
teamID	6

Grant Taylor (691799) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 6

All-history rows before 20260509: 6

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.017	1.100	-0.017	-0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.333	1.000	-0.333	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	0.000	4.000	1.000	7.000	0.0000	0.9375	0.0000	0.7500	0.1875	1.3125
last_10	0.35	6	6.100	1.000	6.000	2.000	8.000	1.4211	1.2632	0.1579	0.9474	0.3158	1.2632
season	0.20	6	6.100	1.000	6.000	2.000	8.000	1.4211	1.2632	0.1579	0.9474	0.3158	1.2632

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2580
predicted_ER	0.0870
predicted_ERA	0.7816
predicted_H	0.8590
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.2850
predicted_WHIP	1.1166

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2580	0.1677	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.0870	0.0565	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.7816	0.7816	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8590	0.5584	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.2850	1.1852	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1166	1.1166	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	8

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.42
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	22
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	17
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260409_CHW@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	691799
playerID	691799
playerName	Grant Taylor
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHW
teamID	6

Sean Newcomb (656794) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 1

All-history rows before 20260509: 1

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	2.000	2.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	2.100	2.100	-1.100	-1.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	1	2.100	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	7.7143	1.7143	0.8571	1.2857	0.4286	0.4286
last_10	0.35	1	2.100	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	7.7143	1.7143	0.8571	1.2857	0.4286	0.4286
season	0.20	1	2.100	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	7.7143	1.7143	0.8571	1.2857	0.4286	0.4286

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.0000
predicted_ER	2.0000
predicted_ERA	7.7143
predicted_H	3.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	2.1000
predicted_SO	1.0000
predicted_WHIP	1.7143

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	1.0000	0.6500	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	2.0000	1.6500	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	7.7143	7.7143	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	3.0000	1.9500	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	2.1000	2.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.7143	1.7143	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	10
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	7.71
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	5
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.1
Pitching_Pitches	33
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	26
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260326_CHW@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	656794
playerID	656794
playerName	Sean Newcomb
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHW
teamID	6

Seranthony Domínguez (622554) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 2

All-history rows before 20260509: 2

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.000	2.000	0.000	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.550	0.100	0.450	0.900
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	2	1.100	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	13.5000	3.0000	1.5000	2.2500	0.7500	0.7500
last_10	0.35	2	1.100	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	13.5000	3.0000	1.5000	2.2500	0.7500	0.7500
season	0.20	2	1.100	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	13.5000	3.0000	1.5000	2.2500	0.7500	0.7500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5000
predicted_ER	1.0000
predicted_ERA	13.5000
predicted_H	1.5000
predicted_HR	0.5000
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.0000
predicted_WHIP	3.0000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5000	0.3250	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	13.5000	13.5000	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.5000	0.9750	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.5000	0.3250	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	3.0000	3.0000	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	13.50
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	3
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	3
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	19
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L, BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260329_CHW@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	622554
playerID	622554
playerName	Seranthony Domínguez
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHW
teamID	6

Jordan Hicks (663855) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 2

All-history rows before 20260509: 2

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.500	0.000	-0.500	1.000
predicted_IP	0.100	0.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.150	0.100	-0.050	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.500	1.000	0.500	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 0.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	2	1.000	3.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	27.0000	6.0000	3.0000	2.0000	4.0000	1.0000
last_10	0.35	2	1.000	3.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	27.0000	6.0000	3.0000	2.0000	4.0000	1.0000
season	0.20	2	1.000	3.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	27.0000	6.0000	3.0000	2.0000	4.0000	1.0000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.6670
predicted_ER	2.0000
predicted_ERA	27.0000
predicted_H	1.3330
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.6670
predicted_WHIP	6.0000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	2.6670	1.7335	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	2.0000	1.6500	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	27.0000	27.0000	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.3330	0.8665	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.6670	0.7835	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	6.0000	6.0000	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.1
H	0
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	9

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	1
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	27.00
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	3
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	3
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260329_CHW@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	663855
playerID	663855
playerName	Jordan Hicks
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHW
teamID	6

Trevor Richards (670950) · PITCHER · Reliever · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 0

All-history rows before 20260509: 0

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	-	-	-	-
predicted_IP	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	-	-	-	-
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_SO	-	-	-	-

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 3.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	2	4.100	1.000	4.000	3.000	5.000	2.0769	1.6154	0.2308	0.9231	0.6923	1.1539
last_10	0.35	2	4.100	1.000	4.000	3.000	5.000	2.0769	1.6154	0.2308	0.9231	0.6923	1.1539
season	0.20	2	4.100	1.000	4.000	3.000	5.000	2.0769	1.6154	0.2308	0.9231	0.6923	1.1539

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.3850
predicted_ER	0.4620
predicted_ERA	2.0769
predicted_H	1.8460
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	2.0000
predicted_SO	2.3080
predicted_WHIP	1.6154

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	1.3850	0.9002	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4620	0.3003	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.0769	2.0769	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.8460	1.1999	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	3.0000	2.0000	2.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	2.3080	2.5502	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.6154	1.6154	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	0
Season rows before report date	0
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	3.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	3
HR	0
BF	9
Pitches	38

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

No historical data found for this player before report date.

20260509_STL@SD

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 2, "confidence": 0.57325, "home_win_probability": 0.42674999999999996, "away_win_probability": 0.57325, "predicted_score_text": "STL 3 - 2 SD", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to final winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "predicted_score_text": "STL 4 - 3 SD", "confidence": 0.57325, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score", "final_prediction_synced": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "STL 4 - 3 SD", "winner": "STL"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 2, "score_text": "STL 3 - 2 SD", "winner": "STL"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": -1, "home_run_delta": -1, "total_run_delta": -2, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"}}

Away Team: STL

Iván Herrera (671056) · BATTER · DH · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 38

All-history rows before 20260509: 38

System season_avg: 0.2630

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2628

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.263	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.263	0.000	-0.263	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.760	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.605	5.000	-0.605	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.330	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.263	0.800	-0.263	-0.800
predicted_BB	0.737	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.737	0.000	0.263	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.947	4.000	-0.947	-4.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.105	0.000	-0.105	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.427	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.414	0.800	-0.164	-0.550
predicted_R	0.579	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.579	1.000	-0.579	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.480	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.447	0.000	-0.447	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.453	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.423	0.800	-0.423	-0.800
predicted_SO	0.816	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.816	0.000	-0.816	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.263	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.760	-
predicted_AVG	0.330	-
predicted_BB	0.737	-
predicted_H	1.240	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.427	-
predicted_R	0.579	-
predicted_RBI	0.480	-
predicted_SLG	0.453	-
predicted_SO	0.816	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.357	0.094
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.819	0.059
predicted_AVG	0.330	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.657	-0.080
predicted_H	1.260	0.020
predicted_HBP	0.045	-
predicted_HR	0.021	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.427	-0.000
predicted_R	0.593	0.014
predicted_RBI	0.491	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.453	0.000
predicted_SO	1.014	0.198

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.82), rates preserved: AVG=0.330 HR/AB=0.006

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, BvP AVG=0.429)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	7.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	0.3500	0.4091	0.4500	0.3500	0.0000	0.1500	0.1000	0.3000
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	13.000	5.000	0.000	4.000	11.000	8.000	12.000	0.3421	0.4565	0.4737	0.3421	0.0000	0.1053	0.2105	0.3158
season	0.20	38	-	137.000	36.000	10.000	4.000	17.000	22.000	28.000	31.000	0.2628	0.4138	0.4234	0.2628	0.0292	0.1241	0.2044	0.2263

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.4070
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.8510
predicted_AVG	0.3298
predicted_BB	0.6140
predicted_H	1.2700
predicted_HBP	0.0450
predicted_HR	0.0220
predicted_OBP	0.4266
predicted_R	0.6000
predicted_RBI	0.4970
predicted_SLG	0.4530
predicted_SO	1.1200

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2630	0.4070	0.3566	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7600	3.8510	3.8192	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3300	0.3298	0.3299	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7370	0.6140	0.6570	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2400	1.2700	1.2595	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0450	0.0450	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0220	0.0213	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4270	0.4266	0.4267	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5790	0.6000	0.5927	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4800	0.4970	0.4910	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4530	0.4530	0.4530	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8160	1.1200	1.0136	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.263

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.8
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	4
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260508_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	671056
playerID	671056
playerName	Iván Herrera
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	STL
teamID	26

Jordan Walker (691023) · BATTER · RF · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 36

All-history rows before 20260509: 36

System season_avg: 0.3070

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3066

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.850	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.806	3.000	0.194	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.284	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.307	0.000	-0.057	0.250
predicted_BB	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.500	2.000	-0.500	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.056	1.000	-0.056	-1.000
predicted_H	1.090	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.167	0.000	-0.167	1.000
predicted_HR	0.130	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.278	0.000	0.722	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.430	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.389	0.400	-0.139	-0.150
predicted_R	0.806	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.806	0.000	0.194	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.550	3.000	3.000	Hitting_RBI	0.750	0.000	2.250	3.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.194	0.000	-0.194	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.494	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SLG	0.584	0.000	0.416	1.000
predicted_SO	1.194	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.194	2.000	-1.194	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.222	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.850	-
predicted_AVG	0.284	-
predicted_BB	0.500	-
predicted_H	1.090	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.430	-
predicted_R	0.806	-
predicted_RBI	0.550	-
predicted_SLG	0.494	-
predicted_SO	1.194	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.320	0.098
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.561	-0.289
predicted_AVG	0.284	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.757	0.257
predicted_H	1.009	-0.081
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-0.010
predicted_OBP	0.430	-0.000
predicted_R	0.743	-0.063
predicted_RBI	0.510	-0.040
predicted_SLG	0.494	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.990	-0.204

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.85), rates preserved: AVG=0.262 HR/AB=0.031

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	3.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.850

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	3.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	6.000	4.000	0.2000	0.4286	0.3333	0.2000	0.0000	0.0000	0.4000	0.2667
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	14.000	4.000	2.000	11.000	8.000	6.000	8.000	0.3784	0.4545	0.6486	0.3784	0.0541	0.2973	0.1622	0.2162
season	0.20	36	-	137.000	42.000	8.000	10.000	27.000	29.000	18.000	43.000	0.3066	0.3885	0.5839	0.3066	0.0730	0.1971	0.1314	0.3139

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3730
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.4060
predicted_AVG	0.2838
predicted_BB	0.8960
predicted_H	0.9660
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.1140
predicted_OBP	0.4296
predicted_R	0.7090
predicted_RBI	0.4890
predicted_SLG	0.4938
predicted_SO	0.8800

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2220	0.3730	0.3201	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8500	3.4060	3.5614	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2840	0.2838	0.2839	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5000	0.8960	0.7574	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0900	0.9660	1.0094	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1140	0.1196	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4300	0.4296	0.4297	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8060	0.7090	0.7429	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5500	0.4890	0.5104	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4940	0.4938	0.4939	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1940	0.8800	0.9899	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	3
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.307

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	1
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260508_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	691023
playerID	691023
playerName	Jordan Walker
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	STL
teamID	26

Thomas Saggese (695336) · BATTER · LF · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 14

All-history rows before 20260509: 14

System season_avg: 0.1630

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1633

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.500	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	3.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.093	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.163	0.000	0.087	0.250
predicted_BB	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_H	0.280	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.571	0.000	0.429	1.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.121	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.226	0.000	0.024	0.250
predicted_R	0.357	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.357	0.000	-0.357	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.121	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.204	0.000	0.046	0.250
predicted_SO	1.286	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.286	2.000	-0.286	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.093	-
predicted_BB	0.286	-
predicted_H	0.280	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.121	-
predicted_R	0.357	-
predicted_RBI	0.040	-
predicted_SLG	0.121	-
predicted_SO	1.286	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.115	-0.028
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.529	0.029
predicted_AVG	0.093	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.184	-0.102
predicted_H	0.311	0.031
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.121	0.000
predicted_R	0.322	-0.035
predicted_RBI	0.046	0.006
predicted_SLG	0.121	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.437	0.151

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.53), rates preserved: AVG=0.088 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	9.000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.5000
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	13.000	0.1714	0.2162	0.2286	0.1714	0.0286	0.0571	0.3714
season	0.20	14	-	49.000	8.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	4.000	18.000	0.1633	0.2264	0.2041	0.1633	0.0204	0.0816	0.3674

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.5450
predicted_AVG	0.0926
predicted_BB	0.1290
predicted_H	0.3280
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.1210
predicted_R	0.3030
predicted_RBI	0.0500
predicted_SLG	0.1208
predicted_SO	1.5190

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.1000	0.1150	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5000	3.5450	3.5293	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.0930	0.0926	0.0927	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2860	0.1290	0.1840	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.2800	0.3280	0.3112	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1210	0.1210	0.1210	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3570	0.3030	0.3219	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0400	0.0500	0.0465	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1210	0.1208	0.1209	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2860	1.5190	1.4374	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.163

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF-3B
gameID	20260427_STL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	695336
playerID	695336
playerName	Thomas Saggese
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	STL
teamID	26

JJ Wetherholt (802139) · BATTER · 2B · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 37

All-history rows before 20260509: 37

System season_avg: 0.2380

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2378

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.135	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.135	0.000	-0.135	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.260	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.865	5.000	0.135	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.221	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.238	0.200	-0.238	-0.200
predicted_BB	0.541	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.541	0.000	0.459	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.940	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.919	1.000	-0.919	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.189	0.000	-0.189	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.328	0.200	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.355	0.200	-0.155	0.000
predicted_R	0.784	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.784	1.000	-0.784	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.750	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.541	2.000	-0.541	-2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.108	0.000	-0.108	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.420	0.200	-0.420	-0.200
predicted_SO	0.784	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.784	1.000	0.216	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.135	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.260	-
predicted_AVG	0.221	-
predicted_BB	0.541	-
predicted_H	0.940	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.328	-
predicted_R	0.784	-
predicted_RBI	0.750	-
predicted_SLG	0.310	-
predicted_SO	0.784	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.131	-0.004
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.015	-0.245
predicted_AVG	0.221	0.000
predicted_BB	0.549	0.008
predicted_H	0.887	-0.053
predicted_HBP	0.072	-
predicted_HR	0.075	-0.005
predicted_OBP	0.328	0.000
predicted_R	0.651	-0.133
predicted_RBI	0.705	-0.045
predicted_SLG	0.310	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.651	-0.133

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.26), rates preserved: AVG=0.208 HR/AB=0.018

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 4.260

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	0.2105	0.3182	0.2105	0.2105	0.0000	0.2105	0.1579	0.1053
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	9.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	7.000	5.000	7.000	0.2250	0.3261	0.3750	0.2250	0.0250	0.1500	0.1250	0.1750
season	0.20	37	-	143.000	34.000	5.000	7.000	20.000	29.000	20.000	29.000	0.2378	0.3547	0.4196	0.2378	0.0490	0.1399	0.1399	0.2028

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1290
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.8830
predicted_AVG	0.2210
predicted_BB	0.5540
predicted_H	0.8580
predicted_HBP	0.0720
predicted_HR	0.0720
predicted_OBP	0.3283
predicted_R	0.5790
predicted_RBI	0.6800
predicted_SLG	0.3099
predicted_SO	0.5790

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1350	0.1290	0.1311	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.2600	3.8830	4.0149	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2210	0.2210	0.2210	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5410	0.5540	0.5494	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9400	0.8580	0.8867	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0720	0.0720	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0720	0.0748	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3280	0.3283	0.3282	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7840	0.5790	0.6507	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7500	0.6800	0.7045	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3100	0.3099	0.3099	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7840	0.5790	0.6507	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.238

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260508_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	802139
playerID	802139
playerName	JJ Wetherholt
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	STL
teamID	26

Masyn Winn (691026) · BATTER · SS · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 33

All-history rows before 20260509: 33

System season_avg: 0.2660

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2661

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.188	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.182	0.000	0.818	1.000
predicted_3B	0.062	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.061	0.000	-0.061	0.000
predicted_AB	3.875	2.000	2.000	Hitting_AB	3.758	3.000	-1.758	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.282	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.266	0.333	0.234	0.167
predicted_BB	0.344	2.000	2.000	Hitting_BB	0.364	0.000	1.636	2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.326	0.750	0.750	Hitting_OBP	0.340	0.250	0.410	0.500
predicted_R	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.485	1.000	0.515	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.490	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.485	1.000	-0.485	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.121	0.000	-0.121	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.382	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SLG	0.371	0.333	0.629	0.667
predicted_SO	0.844	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.818	1.000	-0.818	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.188	-
predicted_3B	0.062	-
predicted_AB	3.875	-
predicted_AVG	0.282	-
predicted_BB	0.344	-
predicted_H	1.000	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.326	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.490	-
predicted_SLG	0.382	-
predicted_SO	0.844	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.112	-0.076
predicted_3B	0.112	0.050
predicted_AB	3.755	-0.120
predicted_AVG	0.282	0.000
predicted_BB	0.291	-0.053
predicted_H	1.027	0.027
predicted_HBP	0.047	-
predicted_HR	0.007	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.326	0.000
predicted_R	0.425	-0.075
predicted_RBI	0.504	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.382	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.656	-0.188

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.88), rates preserved: AVG=0.265 HR/AB=0.002

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, BvP AVG=0.333)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-2.000
BB	2.000	2.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.875

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	0.2778	0.3000	0.3889	0.2778	0.0000	0.1667	0.0556	0.1111
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	11.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	3.000	3.000	6.000	0.2973	0.3571	0.3784	0.2973	0.0000	0.1081	0.0811	0.1622
season	0.20	32	-	124.000	33.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	16.000	16.000	11.000	27.000	0.2661	0.3309	0.3710	0.2661	0.0081	0.1290	0.0887	0.2177

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0710
predicted_3B	0.1390
predicted_AB	3.6900
predicted_AVG	0.2823
predicted_BB	0.2620
predicted_H	1.0420
predicted_HBP	0.0470
predicted_HR	0.0060
predicted_OBP	0.3262
predicted_R	0.3840
predicted_RBI	0.5120
predicted_SLG	0.3816
predicted_SO	0.5550

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1880	0.0710	0.1119	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0620	0.1390	0.1121	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8750	3.6900	3.7547	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2820	0.2823	0.2822	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3440	0.2620	0.2907	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0000	1.0420	1.0273	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0470	0.0470	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0060	0.0074	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3260	0.3262	0.3261	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.3840	0.4246	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4900	0.5120	0.5043	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3820	0.3816	0.3817	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8440	0.5550	0.6562	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.266

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260508_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	691026
playerID	691026
playerName	Masyn Winn
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	STL
teamID	26

Nolan Gorman (669357) · BATTER · 3B · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 33

All-history rows before 20260509: 33

System season_avg: 0.2230

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2231

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.121	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.121	0.000	-0.121	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.667	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.667	4.000	-0.667	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.223	0.250	-0.223	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.394	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.394	0.000	0.606	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.790	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.818	1.000	-0.818	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.121	0.000	-0.121	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.290	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.292	0.250	-0.042	0.000
predicted_R	0.394	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.394	0.000	-0.394	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.460	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.636	1.000	-0.636	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.377	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.355	0.250	-0.355	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.242	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.242	2.000	-0.242	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.121	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.667	-
predicted_AVG	0.222	-
predicted_BB	0.394	-
predicted_H	0.790	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.290	-
predicted_R	0.394	-
predicted_RBI	0.460	-
predicted_SLG	0.377	-
predicted_SO	1.242	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.221	0.100
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.632	-0.035
predicted_AVG	0.222	0.000
predicted_BB	0.374	-0.020
predicted_H	0.799	0.009
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.093	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.290	-0.000
predicted_R	0.339	-0.055
predicted_RBI	0.461	0.001
predicted_SLG	0.377	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.419	0.177

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.67), rates preserved: AVG=0.218 HR/AB=0.025

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	9.000	0.2222	0.3000	0.3333	0.2222	0.0000	0.0556	0.1111	0.5000
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	8.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	4.000	3.000	13.000	0.2222	0.2750	0.4444	0.2222	0.0556	0.1944	0.0833	0.3611
season	0.20	33	-	121.000	27.000	4.000	4.000	21.000	13.000	13.000	41.000	0.2231	0.2920	0.3554	0.2231	0.0331	0.1736	0.1074	0.3388

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2750
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.6130
predicted_AVG	0.2224
predicted_BB	0.3640
predicted_H	0.8040
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0940
predicted_OBP	0.2897
predicted_R	0.3090
predicted_RBI	0.4620
predicted_SLG	0.3766
predicted_SO	1.5150

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1210	0.2750	0.2211	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6670	3.6130	3.6319	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2220	0.2224	0.2223	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3940	0.3640	0.3745	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7900	0.8040	0.7991	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.0940	0.0926	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2900	0.2897	0.2898	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3940	0.3090	0.3387	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4600	0.4620	0.4613	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3770	0.3766	0.3767	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2420	1.5150	1.4194	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.223

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260508_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	669357
playerID	669357
playerName	Nolan Gorman
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	STL
teamID	26

Pedro Pagés (686780) · BATTER · C · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 24

All-history rows before 20260509: 24

System season_avg: 0.2170

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2169

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.458	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.458	4.000	0.542	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.153	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.217	0.000	-0.217	0.000
predicted_BB	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.450	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.750	0.000	-0.750	0.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.267	0.000	-0.267	0.000
predicted_R	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.274	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.361	0.000	-0.361	0.000
predicted_SO	0.958	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.958	1.000	1.042	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.458	-
predicted_AVG	0.153	-
predicted_BB	0.167	-
predicted_H	0.450	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.200	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.140	-
predicted_SLG	0.274	-
predicted_SO	0.958	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.141	0.016
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.555	0.097
predicted_AVG	0.153	0.000
predicted_BB	0.184	0.017
predicted_H	0.518	0.068
predicted_HBP	0.017	-
predicted_HR	0.089	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.200	-0.000
predicted_R	0.287	-0.046
predicted_RBI	0.161	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.274	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.141	0.183

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.55), rates preserved: AVG=0.146 HR/AB=0.025

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 24

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	0.0556	0.1053	0.1111	0.0556	0.0000	0.0000	0.0556	0.3889
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	9.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	12.000	0.2432	0.2821	0.4324	0.2432	0.0541	0.0811	0.0541	0.3243
season	0.20	24	-	83.000	18.000	3.000	3.000	8.000	8.000	4.000	23.000	0.2169	0.2667	0.3614	0.2169	0.0361	0.0964	0.0482	0.2771

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1500
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.6070
predicted_AVG	0.1535
predicted_BB	0.1930
predicted_H	0.5540
predicted_HBP	0.0170
predicted_HR	0.0940
predicted_OBP	0.1995
predicted_R	0.2620
predicted_RBI	0.1720
predicted_SLG	0.2736
predicted_SO	1.2400

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1250	0.1500	0.1412	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4580	3.6070	3.5549	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1530	0.1535	0.1533	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1670	0.1930	0.1839	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4500	0.5540	0.5176	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0170	0.0170	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0940	0.0891	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2000	0.1995	0.1997	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.2620	0.2868	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1400	0.1720	0.1608	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2740	0.2736	0.2737	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9580	1.2400	1.1413	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	24
Season rows before report date	24
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	24
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.217

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260507_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	686780
playerID	686780
playerName	Pedro Pagés
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	STL
teamID	26

Alec Burleson (676475) · BATTER · 1B · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 36

All-history rows before 20260509: 36

System season_avg: 0.2760

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2759

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.278	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.278	1.000	0.722	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.190	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.028	5.000	-0.028	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.276	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.276	0.400	0.224	0.100
predicted_BB	0.472	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.472	0.000	-0.472	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.160	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	1.111	2.000	0.889	0.000
predicted_HR	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.333	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.350	0.400	0.150	0.100
predicted_R	0.556	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.556	1.000	0.444	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.920	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.833	0.000	-0.833	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.514	0.750	0.750	Hitting_SLG	0.469	0.600	0.281	0.150
predicted_SO	0.722	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.722	2.000	-0.722	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.278	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.190	-
predicted_AVG	0.276	-
predicted_BB	0.472	-
predicted_H	1.160	-
predicted_HR	0.230	-
predicted_OBP	0.333	-
predicted_R	0.556	-
predicted_RBI	0.920	-
predicted_SLG	0.514	-
predicted_SO	0.722	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.284	0.006
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.129	-0.061
predicted_AVG	0.276	0.000
predicted_BB	0.401	-0.071
predicted_H	1.141	-0.019
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.229	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.333	-0.000
predicted_R	0.592	0.036
predicted_RBI	0.906	-0.014
predicted_SLG	0.514	0.000
predicted_SO	0.947	0.225

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.19), rates preserved: AVG=0.272 HR/AB=0.055

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, BvP AVG=0.143)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 4.190

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	6.000	0.2381	0.2727	0.4286	0.2381	0.0476	0.1429	0.0476	0.2857
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	13.000	4.000	3.000	13.000	9.000	5.000	11.000	0.3250	0.4000	0.6500	0.3250	0.0750	0.3250	0.1250	0.2750
season	0.20	36	-	145.000	40.000	10.000	6.000	30.000	20.000	17.000	26.000	0.2759	0.3497	0.4690	0.2759	0.0414	0.2069	0.1172	0.1793

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2880
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.0960
predicted_AVG	0.2761
predicted_BB	0.3630
predicted_H	1.1310
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.2290
predicted_OBP	0.3327
predicted_R	0.6110
predicted_RBI	0.8990
predicted_SLG	0.5142
predicted_SO	1.0680

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2780	0.2880	0.2845	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1900	4.0960	4.1289	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2760	0.2761	0.2761	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4720	0.3630	0.4012	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1600	1.1310	1.1412	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2300	0.2290	0.2293	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3330	0.3327	0.3328	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5560	0.6110	0.5917	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.9200	0.8990	0.9063	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5140	0.5142	0.5141	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7220	1.0680	0.9469	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.276

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260508_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	676475
playerID	676475
playerName	Alec Burleson
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	STL
teamID	26

Nathan Church (701675) · BATTER · CF · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 28

All-history rows before 20260509: 28

System season_avg: 0.2480

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2476

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.750	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.750	4.000	0.250	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.260	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.248	0.500	-0.248	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.036	0.000	-0.036	0.000
predicted_H	0.900	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.929	2.000	-0.929	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.265	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.273	0.500	-0.273	-0.500
predicted_R	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.464	0.000	-0.464	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.107	0.000	-0.107	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.400	0.500	-0.400	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.821	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.821	0.000	1.179	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.750	-
predicted_AVG	0.260	-
predicted_BB	0.143	-
predicted_H	0.900	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.265	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.170	-
predicted_SLG	0.360	-
predicted_SO	0.821	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.253	0.110
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.925	0.175
predicted_AVG	0.260	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.070	-0.073
predicted_H	0.993	0.093
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.031	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.265	-0.000
predicted_R	0.428	-0.072
predicted_RBI	0.190	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.360	0.000
predicted_SO	0.635	-0.186

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.93), rates preserved: AVG=0.253 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	0.3000	0.3000	0.4000	0.3000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0500
last_10	0.35	10	-	42.000	9.000	3.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	0.000	8.000	0.2143	0.2143	0.2857	0.2143	0.0000	0.0714	0.0000	0.1905
season	0.20	28	-	105.000	26.000	4.000	4.000	13.000	14.000	4.000	23.000	0.2476	0.2727	0.4000	0.2476	0.0381	0.1238	0.0381	0.2190

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3120
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.0200
predicted_AVG	0.2595
predicted_BB	0.0310
predicted_H	1.0430
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0310
predicted_OBP	0.2645
predicted_R	0.3890
predicted_RBI	0.2000
predicted_SLG	0.3600
predicted_SO	0.5350

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.3120	0.2529	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7500	4.0200	3.9255	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2600	0.2595	0.2597	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1430	0.0310	0.0702	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9000	1.0430	0.9929	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0310	0.0307	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2650	0.2645	0.2647	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.3890	0.4279	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1700	0.2000	0.1895	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3600	0.3600	0.3600	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8210	0.5350	0.6351	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.248

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260508_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	701675
playerID	701675
playerName	Nathan Church
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	STL
teamID	26

Dustin May (669160) · PITCHER · Starter · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 7

All-history rows before 20260509: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	3.000	3.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_IP	3.200	3.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.171	6.000	-1.971	-2.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	3.571	3.000	-2.571	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 3.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	29.100	8.000	30.000	6.000	18.000	1.000	2.4545	1.2273	0.2727	1.0227	0.2046	0.6136	0.0341
last_10	0.35	7	36.200	21.000	47.000	9.000	25.000	3.000	5.1545	1.5273	0.5727	1.2818	0.2455	0.6818	0.0818
season	0.20	7	36.200	21.000	47.000	9.000	25.000	3.000	5.1545	1.5273	0.5727	1.2818	0.2455	0.6818	0.0818

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.2790
predicted_ER	2.4660
predicted_ERA	3.9395
predicted_H	6.5640
predicted_HR	0.3400
predicted_IP	5.2000
predicted_SO	3.6680
predicted_WHIP	1.3923

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	1.2790	1.1813	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.4660	2.3029	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.9395	3.9395	form_only
predicted_H	6.0000	6.5640	6.3666	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.3400	0.5710	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	3.2000	5.2000	5.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	3.6680	2.7342	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3923	1.3923	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	3.2
H	6
R	2
ER	2
BB	1
SO	1
HR	1
BF	23
Pitches	92

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	25
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	5.15
Pitching_Flyouts	4
Pitching_Groundouts	6
Pitching_H	7
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	95
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	59
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_LAD@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	669160
playerID	669160
playerName	Dustin May
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	STL
teamID	26

Riley O'Brien (676617) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 18

All-history rows before 20260509: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_IP	2.100	2.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.922	1.000	1.178	1.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.111	1.000	-1.111	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 2.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	4.000	9.000	1.000	5.000	7.7143	2.1429	0.8571	1.9286	0.2143	1.0714
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	4.000	11.000	1.000	12.000	3.7241	1.2414	0.4138	1.1379	0.1035	1.2414
season	0.20	18	18.000	4.000	15.000	1.000	20.000	2.0000	0.8889	0.2222	0.8333	0.0556	1.1111

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1440
predicted_ER	0.5750
predicted_ERA	5.1749
predicted_H	1.4330
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1390
predicted_WHIP	1.5766

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1440	0.0936	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5750	0.3737	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.1749	5.1749	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.4330	1.2814	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	2.1000	1.0000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.1390	0.7404	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5766	1.5766	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.00
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	10
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	676617
playerID	676617
playerName	Riley O'Brien
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	STL
teamID	26

George Soriano (666277) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 17

All-history rows before 20260509: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.353	0.000	-0.353
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.824	1.000	0.176
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.824	1.000	0.176

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	4.000	3.000	5.000	0.000	0.0000	1.4000	0.0000	0.8000	0.6000	1.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.100	4.000	7.000	5.000	9.000	1.000	4.3200	1.4400	0.4800	0.8400	0.6000	1.0800	0.1200
season	0.20	17	16.100	6.000	10.000	9.000	14.000	1.000	3.3061	1.1633	0.3674	0.6122	0.5510	0.8571	0.0612

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5210
predicted_ER	0.2130
predicted_ERA	2.1732
predicted_H	0.6860
predicted_HR	0.0480
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8830
predicted_WHIP	1.3667

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5210	0.3387	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2130	0.1384	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.1732	2.1732	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.6860	0.7959	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0480	0.0312	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8830	0.9240	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3667	1.3667	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.31
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	666277
playerID	666277
playerName	George Soriano
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	STL
teamID	26

JoJo Romero (668941) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 18

All-history rows before 20260509: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.389	0.000	-0.389
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.806	1.000	0.194
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.778	1.000	0.222

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	1.000	3.000	3.000	6.000	1.000	2.0769	1.3846	0.2308	0.6923	0.6923	1.3846	0.2308
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	7.000	9.000	4.000	9.000	3.000	7.0000	1.4444	0.7778	1.0000	0.4444	1.0000	0.3333
season	0.20	18	18.000	7.000	15.000	7.000	14.000	3.000	3.5000	1.2222	0.3889	0.8333	0.3889	0.7778	0.1667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5450
predicted_ER	0.4540
predicted_ERA	4.0846
predicted_H	0.8280
predicted_HR	0.2540
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1290
predicted_WHIP	1.3731

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5450	0.3543	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4540	0.2951	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.0846	4.0846	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8280	0.5382	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2540	0.1651	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1290	1.0838	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3731	1.3731	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.50
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	7
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	668941
playerID	668941
playerName	JoJo Romero
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	STL
teamID	26

Ryne Stanek (592773) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 18

All-history rows before 20260509: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.667	0.000	-0.667
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.733	1.000	0.267
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.167	1.000	-0.167

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	2.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	0.000	4.1538	1.3846	0.4615	0.6923	0.6923	0.9231	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.200	5.000	7.000	8.000	12.000	0.000	5.1923	1.7308	0.5769	0.8077	0.9231	1.3846	0.0000
season	0.20	18	16.000	12.000	18.000	13.000	21.000	1.000	6.7500	1.9375	0.7500	1.1250	0.8125	1.3125	0.0625

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.7970
predicted_ER	0.5600
predicted_ERA	5.0365
predicted_H	0.8190
predicted_HR	0.0130
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1630
predicted_WHIP	1.6163

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.7970	0.5181	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5600	0.3640	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.0365	5.0365	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8190	0.5323	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0130	0.0084	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1630	1.1059	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.6163	1.6163	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	6.75
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	592773
playerID	592773
playerName	Ryne Stanek
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	STL
teamID	26

Home Team: SD

Sung-Mun Song (823550) · BATTER · 2B · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 3

All-history rows before 20260509: 3

System season_avg: 0.2220

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2222

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	3.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.222	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.222	0.000	0.028	0.250
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.580	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.667	0.000	0.333	1.000
predicted_HR	0.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.222	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.222	0.000	0.028	0.250
predicted_R	0.667	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.667	0.000	0.333	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.580	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.667	0.000	0.333	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.333	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SLG	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_SO	1.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	2.000	-1.000	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.333	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.222	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.580	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.222	-
predicted_R	0.667	-
predicted_RBI	0.580	-
predicted_SLG	0.333	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.333	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.222	0.000
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.637	0.057
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.222	0.000
predicted_R	0.667	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.637	0.057
predicted_SLG	0.333	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	0.000

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.212 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 3

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	3	-	9.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	0.2222	0.2222	0.3333	0.2222	0.2222	0.3333
last_10	0.35	3	-	9.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	0.2222	0.2222	0.3333	0.2222	0.2222	0.3333
season	0.20	3	-	9.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	0.2222	0.2222	0.3333	0.2222	0.2222	0.3333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3330
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.0000
predicted_AVG	0.2222
predicted_BB	0.0000
predicted_H	0.6670
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.2222
predicted_R	0.6670
predicted_RBI	0.6670
predicted_SLG	0.3333
predicted_SO	1.0000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3330	0.3330	0.3330	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.0000	3.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2220	0.2222	0.2221	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5800	0.6670	0.6366	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2220	0.2222	0.2221	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6670	0.6670	0.6670	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5800	0.6670	0.6366	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3330	0.3333	0.3332	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	3
Season rows before report date	3
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	3
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.222

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260508_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	823550
playerID	823550
playerName	Sung-Mun Song
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	SD
teamID	23

Xander Bogaerts (593428) · BATTER · SS · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 36

All-history rows before 20260509: 36

System season_avg: 0.2630

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2632

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.056	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.694	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.694	4.000	0.306	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.255	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.263	0.000	-0.263	0.000
predicted_BB	0.444	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.444	0.000	-0.444	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.920	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.972	0.000	-0.972	0.000
predicted_HR	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.316	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.342	0.000	-0.342	0.000
predicted_R	0.444	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.444	0.000	-0.444	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.650	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.583	0.000	-0.583	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.419	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.414	0.000	-0.414	0.000
predicted_SO	0.667	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.667	2.000	0.333	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.056	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.694	-
predicted_AVG	0.255	-
predicted_BB	0.444	-
predicted_H	0.920	-
predicted_HR	0.190	-
predicted_OBP	0.316	-
predicted_R	0.444	-
predicted_RBI	0.650	-
predicted_SLG	0.419	-
predicted_SO	0.667	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.027	-0.029
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.645	-0.049
predicted_AVG	0.255	0.000
predicted_BB	0.362	-0.082
predicted_H	0.923	0.003
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.193	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.316	-0.000
predicted_R	0.444	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.651	0.001
predicted_SLG	0.419	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.724	0.057

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.69), rates preserved: AVG=0.250 HR/AB=0.052

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, BvP AVG=0.250)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	0.2778	0.3158	0.4444	0.2778	0.0556	0.2222	0.0556	0.1667
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	8.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	5.000	4.000	10.000	0.2222	0.3000	0.3889	0.2222	0.0556	0.1389	0.1111	0.2778
season	0.20	36	-	133.000	35.000	2.000	6.000	21.000	16.000	16.000	24.000	0.2632	0.3423	0.4135	0.2632	0.0451	0.1579	0.1203	0.1804

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0110
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.6190
predicted_AVG	0.2554
predicted_BB	0.3180
predicted_H	0.9240
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1940
predicted_OBP	0.3156
predicted_R	0.4440
predicted_RBI	0.6520
predicted_SLG	0.4188
predicted_SO	0.7540

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0560	0.0110	0.0267	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6940	3.6190	3.6453	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2550	0.2554	0.2553	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4440	0.3180	0.3621	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9200	0.9240	0.9226	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1900	0.1940	0.1926	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3160	0.3156	0.3157	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4440	0.4440	0.4440	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6500	0.6520	0.6513	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4190	0.4188	0.4189	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6670	0.7540	0.7236	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.263

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260508_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	593428
playerID	593428
playerName	Xander Bogaerts
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	SD
teamID	23

Jackson Merrill (701538) · BATTER · CF · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 36

All-history rows before 20260509: 36

System season_avg: 0.2310

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2308

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.360	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.972	4.000	1.028	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.300	0.200	0.200	Hitting_AVG	0.231	0.250	-0.031	-0.050
predicted_BB	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.310	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.917	1.000	0.083	0.000
predicted_HR	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.357	0.200	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.295	0.250	-0.095	-0.050
predicted_R	0.611	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.611	0.000	-0.611	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.560	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.194	0.000	-0.194	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.484	0.200	0.200	Hitting_SLG	0.371	0.250	-0.171	-0.050
predicted_SO	1.056	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.056	2.000	0.944	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.222	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.360	-
predicted_AVG	0.300	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	1.310	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.357	-
predicted_R	0.611	-
predicted_RBI	0.560	-
predicted_SLG	0.484	-
predicted_SO	1.056	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.269	0.047
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.122	-0.238
predicted_AVG	0.300	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.345	0.012
predicted_H	1.237	-0.073
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.151	-0.009
predicted_OBP	0.357	0.000
predicted_R	0.560	-0.051
predicted_RBI	0.527	-0.033
predicted_SLG	0.484	0.000
predicted_SO	1.108	0.052

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.36), rates preserved: AVG=0.284 HR/AB=0.035

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 4.360

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	6.000	0.3500	0.4091	0.6000	0.3500	0.0500	0.1500	0.1000	0.3000
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	11.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	3.000	11.000	0.2750	0.3256	0.4000	0.2750	0.0250	0.1000	0.0750	0.2750
season	0.20	36	-	143.000	33.000	8.000	4.000	18.000	22.000	12.000	38.000	0.2308	0.2949	0.3706	0.2308	0.0280	0.1259	0.0839	0.2657

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2940
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.9940
predicted_AVG	0.2999
predicted_BB	0.3520
predicted_H	1.1980
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.1470
predicted_OBP	0.3570
predicted_R	0.5320
predicted_RBI	0.5100
predicted_SLG	0.4841
predicted_SO	1.1360

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2220	0.2940	0.2688	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.3600	3.9940	4.1221	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3000	0.2999	0.2999	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.3520	0.3453	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.3100	1.1980	1.2372	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.1470	0.1515	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3570	0.3570	0.3570	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6110	0.5320	0.5596	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5600	0.5100	0.5275	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4840	0.4841	0.4841	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0560	1.1360	1.1080	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.231

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260508_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	701538
playerID	701538
playerName	Jackson Merrill
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	SD
teamID	23

Ty France (664034) · BATTER · 1B · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 16

All-history rows before 20260509: 16

System season_avg: 0.2730

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2727

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.125	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.125	0.000	0.875	1.000
predicted_3B	0.062	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_AB	3.438	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.438	3.000	0.562	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.242	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.273	0.000	-0.023	0.250
predicted_BB	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.770	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.938	0.000	0.062	1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.188	0.000	-0.188	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.257	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.310	0.000	-0.060	0.250
predicted_R	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.382	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.509	0.000	-0.009	0.500
predicted_SO	0.375	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.375	1.000	-0.375	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-
predicted_3B	0.062	-
predicted_AB	3.438	-
predicted_AVG	0.242	-
predicted_BB	0.125	-
predicted_H	0.770	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.257	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.382	-
predicted_SO	0.375	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.085	-0.040
predicted_3B	0.054	-0.008
predicted_AB	3.535	0.097
predicted_AVG	0.242	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.085	-0.040
predicted_H	0.834	0.064
predicted_HBP	0.013	-
predicted_HR	0.108	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.257	-0.000
predicted_R	0.394	-0.106
predicted_RBI	0.431	0.031
predicted_SLG	0.382	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.365	-0.010

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.53), rates preserved: AVG=0.236 HR/AB=0.031

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	0.2105	0.2105	0.2105	0.2105	0.0000	0.0526	0.0000	0.1053
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	9.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	4.000	1.000	3.000	0.2647	0.2857	0.5294	0.2647	0.0588	0.2059	0.0294	0.0882
season	0.20	16	-	55.000	15.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	8.000	8.000	2.000	6.000	0.2727	0.3103	0.5091	0.2727	0.0546	0.1454	0.0364	0.1091

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0630
predicted_3B	0.0500
predicted_AB	3.5870
predicted_AVG	0.2419
predicted_BB	0.0630
predicted_H	0.8680
predicted_HBP	0.0130
predicted_HR	0.1130
predicted_OBP	0.2568
predicted_R	0.3370
predicted_RBI	0.4480
predicted_SLG	0.3818
predicted_SO	0.3590

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1250	0.0630	0.0847	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0620	0.0500	0.0542	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4380	3.5870	3.5349	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2420	0.2419	0.2419	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1250	0.0630	0.0847	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7700	0.8680	0.8337	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0130	0.0130	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1130	0.1084	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2570	0.2568	0.2569	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.3370	0.3941	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.4480	0.4312	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3820	0.3818	0.3819	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3750	0.3590	0.3646	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.273

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260507_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	664034
playerID	664034
playerName	Ty France
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	SD
teamID	23

Ramón Laureano (657656) · BATTER · LF · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 33

All-history rows before 20260509: 33

System season_avg: 0.2280

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2283

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.121	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.121	0.000	-0.121	0.000
predicted_3B	0.061	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.061	0.000	-0.061	0.000
predicted_AB	3.848	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.848	3.000	-0.848	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.129	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.228	0.000	-0.228	0.000
predicted_BB	0.424	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.424	0.000	0.576	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.470	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.879	0.000	-0.879	0.000
predicted_HR	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.152	0.000	-0.152	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.282	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.306	0.000	-0.056	0.250
predicted_R	0.515	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.515	0.000	0.485	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.260	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.576	0.000	0.424	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.121	0.000	-0.121	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.293	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.409	0.000	-0.409	0.000
predicted_SO	1.273	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.273	1.000	-1.273	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.121	-
predicted_3B	0.061	-
predicted_AB	3.848	-
predicted_AVG	0.129	-
predicted_BB	0.424	-
predicted_H	0.470	-
predicted_HR	0.180	-
predicted_OBP	0.282	-
predicted_R	0.515	-
predicted_RBI	0.260	-
predicted_SLG	0.293	-
predicted_SO	1.273	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.055	-0.066
predicted_3B	0.028	-0.033
predicted_AB	3.440	-0.408
predicted_AVG	0.129	0.000
predicted_BB	0.593	0.169
predicted_H	0.435	-0.035
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.168	-0.012
predicted_OBP	0.282	0.000
predicted_R	0.524	0.009
predicted_RBI	0.242	-0.018
predicted_SLG	0.293	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.356	0.083

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.85), rates preserved: AVG=0.113 HR/AB=0.044

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.848

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	7.000	0.0714	0.2778	0.2857	0.0714	0.0714	0.0714	0.2857	0.5000
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	6.000	14.000	0.1471	0.2750	0.2353	0.1471	0.0294	0.0294	0.1765	0.4118
season	0.20	33	-	127.000	29.000	4.000	2.000	5.000	19.000	17.000	14.000	42.000	0.2283	0.3056	0.4094	0.2283	0.0394	0.1496	0.1102	0.3307

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0200
predicted_3B	0.0100
predicted_AB	3.2200
predicted_AVG	0.1293
predicted_BB	0.6840
predicted_H	0.4160
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.1620
predicted_OBP	0.2824
predicted_R	0.5290
predicted_RBI	0.2330
predicted_SLG	0.2928
predicted_SO	1.4010

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1210	0.0200	0.0553	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0610	0.0100	0.0278	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8480	3.2200	3.4398	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1290	0.1293	0.1292	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4240	0.6840	0.5930	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4700	0.4160	0.4349	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1800	0.1620	0.1683	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2820	0.2824	0.2823	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5150	0.5290	0.5241	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2600	0.2330	0.2424	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2930	0.2928	0.2929	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2730	1.4010	1.3562	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.228

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260508_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	657656
playerID	657656
playerName	Ramón Laureano
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	SD
teamID	23

Fernando Tatis Jr. (665487) · BATTER · RF · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 36

All-history rows before 20260509: 36

System season_avg: 0.2480

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2482

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.139	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.139	0.000	-0.139	0.000
predicted_3B	0.028	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_AB	3.960	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.806	2.000	0.194	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.210	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.248	0.000	0.252	0.500
predicted_BB	0.417	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.417	1.000	-0.417	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_H	0.830	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.944	0.000	1.056	2.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.255	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.321	0.333	0.179	0.167
predicted_R	0.389	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.389	0.000	-0.389	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.273	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.299	0.000	0.201	0.500
predicted_SO	1.056	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.056	0.000	-1.056	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.139	-
predicted_3B	0.028	-
predicted_AB	3.960	-
predicted_AVG	0.210	-
predicted_BB	0.417	-
predicted_H	0.830	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.255	-
predicted_R	0.389	-
predicted_RBI	0.110	-
predicted_SLG	0.273	-
predicted_SO	1.056	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.149	0.010
predicted_3B	0.036	0.008
predicted_AB	3.775	-0.185
predicted_AVG	0.210	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.303	-0.114
predicted_H	0.792	-0.038
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.255	0.000
predicted_R	0.372	-0.017
predicted_RBI	0.103	-0.007
predicted_SLG	0.273	0.000
predicted_SO	1.004	-0.052

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.96), rates preserved: AVG=0.200 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=23.0, BvP AVG=0.261)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.960

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	0.1667	0.2105	0.2222	0.1667	0.0000	0.0556	0.2778
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	9.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	9.000	0.2432	0.2750	0.3243	0.2432	0.0270	0.0541	0.2432
season	0.20	36	-	137.000	34.000	5.000	1.000	12.000	14.000	15.000	38.000	0.2482	0.3205	0.2993	0.2482	0.0876	0.1095	0.2774

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1540
predicted_3B	0.0400
predicted_AB	3.6760
predicted_AVG	0.2098
predicted_BB	0.2420
predicted_H	0.7710
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.2551
predicted_R	0.3630
predicted_RBI	0.0990
predicted_SLG	0.2734
predicted_SO	0.9760

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1390	0.1540	0.1487	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0280	0.0400	0.0358	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9600	3.6760	3.7754	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2100	0.2098	0.2099	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4170	0.2420	0.3033	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8300	0.7710	0.7916	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2550	0.2551	0.2551	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3890	0.3630	0.3721	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1100	0.0990	0.1028	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2730	0.2734	0.2733	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0560	0.9760	1.0040	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.248

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260508_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	665487
playerID	665487
playerName	Fernando Tatis Jr.
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	SD
teamID	23

Gavin Sheets (657757) · BATTER · DH · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 27

All-history rows before 20260509: 27

System season_avg: 0.2110

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2105

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.296	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.296	0.000	-0.296	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.580	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.519	2.000	0.481	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.179	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.211	0.000	0.039	0.250
predicted_BB	0.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.222	1.000	-0.222	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.640	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.741	0.000	0.259	1.000
predicted_HR	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.256	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.265	0.333	-0.015	-0.083
predicted_R	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.370	0.000	-0.370	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.074	0.000	-0.074	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.332	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.389	0.000	-0.139	0.250
predicted_SO	0.852	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.852	1.000	0.148	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.296	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.580	-
predicted_AVG	0.179	-
predicted_BB	0.222	-
predicted_H	0.640	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.256	-
predicted_R	0.370	-
predicted_RBI	0.280	-
predicted_SLG	0.332	-
predicted_SO	0.852	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.140	-0.156
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.397	-0.183
predicted_AVG	0.179	0.000
predicted_BB	0.271	0.049
predicted_H	0.609	-0.031
predicted_HBP	0.042	-
predicted_HR	0.153	-0.007
predicted_OBP	0.256	-0.000
predicted_R	0.363	-0.007
predicted_RBI	0.267	-0.013
predicted_SLG	0.332	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.825	-0.027

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.58), rates preserved: AVG=0.170 HR/AB=0.043

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	0.1875	0.2778	0.3750	0.1875	0.0625	0.0625	0.1250	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	8.000	0.1515	0.2222	0.2424	0.1515	0.0303	0.0909	0.0606	0.2424
season	0.20	27	-	95.000	20.000	8.000	3.000	9.000	10.000	6.000	23.000	0.2105	0.2647	0.3895	0.2105	0.0316	0.0947	0.0632	0.2421

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0560
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.2990
predicted_AVG	0.1795
predicted_BB	0.2970
predicted_H	0.5920
predicted_HBP	0.0420
predicted_HR	0.1490
predicted_OBP	0.2557
predicted_R	0.3600
predicted_RBI	0.2600
predicted_SLG	0.3315
predicted_SO	0.8110

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2960	0.0560	0.1400	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5800	3.2990	3.3974	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1790	0.1795	0.1793	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2220	0.2970	0.2707	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6400	0.5920	0.6088	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0420	0.0420	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.1490	0.1528	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2560	0.2557	0.2558	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3700	0.3600	0.3635	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2800	0.2600	0.2670	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3320	0.3315	0.3317	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8520	0.8110	0.8254	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.211

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260508_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	657757
playerID	657757
playerName	Gavin Sheets
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	SD
teamID	23

Manny Machado (592518) · BATTER · 3B · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 36

All-history rows before 20260509: 36

System season_avg: 0.1950

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1953

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.690	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.556	4.000	-0.556	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.096	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.195	0.000	-0.195	0.000
predicted_BB	0.583	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.583	0.000	-0.583	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_H	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.694	0.000	-0.694	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.139	0.000	-0.139	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.189	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.305	0.000	-0.055	0.250
predicted_R	0.583	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.583	0.000	-0.583	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.173	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.344	0.000	-0.344	0.000
predicted_SO	0.889	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.889	1.000	-0.889	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.690	-
predicted_AVG	0.096	-
predicted_BB	0.583	-
predicted_H	0.350	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.189	-
predicted_R	0.583	-
predicted_RBI	0.170	-
predicted_SLG	0.173	-
predicted_SO	0.889	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.100	-0.011
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.707	0.017
predicted_AVG	0.096	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.489	-0.094
predicted_H	0.354	0.004
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.063	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.189	0.000
predicted_R	0.535	-0.048
predicted_RBI	0.173	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.173	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.946	0.057

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.095 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=33.0, BvP AVG=0.273)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	0.0000	0.0952	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.1053	0.2632
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	4.000	10.000	0.1622	0.2439	0.2973	0.1622	0.0270	0.0541	0.1081	0.2703
season	0.20	36	-	128.000	25.000	4.000	5.000	18.000	21.000	21.000	32.000	0.1953	0.3046	0.3438	0.1953	0.0391	0.1406	0.1641	0.2500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0940
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7160
predicted_AVG	0.0958
predicted_BB	0.4390
predicted_H	0.3560
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0640
predicted_OBP	0.1891
predicted_R	0.5090
predicted_RBI	0.1750
predicted_SLG	0.1728
predicted_SO	0.9770

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1110	0.0940	0.0999	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6900	3.7160	3.7069	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.0960	0.0958	0.0959	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5830	0.4390	0.4894	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3500	0.3560	0.3539	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0640	0.0626	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1890	0.1891	0.1891	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5830	0.5090	0.5349	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1700	0.1750	0.1732	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1730	0.1728	0.1729	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8890	0.9770	0.9462	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.195

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260508_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	592518
playerID	592518
playerName	Manny Machado
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	SD
teamID	23

Freddy Fermin (666023) · BATTER · C · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 20

All-history rows before 20260509: 20

System season_avg: 0.1430

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1429

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.150	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.150	3.000	0.850	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.101	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.143	0.000	0.357	0.500
predicted_BB	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_H	0.270	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.450	0.000	1.550	2.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.186	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.253	0.000	0.247	0.500
predicted_R	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.150	0.000	-0.150	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.163	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.206	0.000	0.294	0.500
predicted_SO	0.800	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.800	1.000	-0.800	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.150	-
predicted_AVG	0.101	-
predicted_BB	0.400	-
predicted_H	0.270	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.186	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.050	-
predicted_SLG	0.163	-
predicted_SO	0.800	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.176	0.026
predicted_AVG	0.101	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.342	-0.058
predicted_H	0.302	0.032
predicted_HBP	0.055	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.186	0.000
predicted_R	0.309	-0.191
predicted_RBI	0.060	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.163	0.000
predicted_SO	0.742	-0.058

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.18), rates preserved: AVG=0.095 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	0.0625	0.1176	0.1250	0.0625	0.0000	0.0625	0.1875
last_10	0.35	10	-	32.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	8.000	0.1250	0.2368	0.1875	0.1250	0.0312	0.1250	0.2500
season	0.20	20	-	63.000	9.000	4.000	3.000	10.000	8.000	16.000	0.1429	0.2533	0.2063	0.1429	0.0476	0.1270	0.2540

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.1900
predicted_AVG	0.1005
predicted_BB	0.3100
predicted_H	0.3200
predicted_HBP	0.0550
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.1865
predicted_R	0.2060
predicted_RBI	0.0650
predicted_SLG	0.1631
predicted_SO	0.7100

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1500	3.1900	3.1760	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1010	0.1005	0.1007	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4000	0.3100	0.3415	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.2700	0.3200	0.3025	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0550	0.0550	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1860	0.1865	0.1863	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.2060	0.3089	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0500	0.0650	0.0597	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1630	0.1631	0.1631	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8000	0.7100	0.7415	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.143

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260508_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	666023
playerID	666023
playerName	Freddy Fermin
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	SD
teamID	23

Randy Vásquez (681190) · PITCHER · Starter · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 7

All-history rows before 20260509: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_ER	2.000	3.000	1.000	0.000
predicted_IP	2.200	2.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.486	5.200	-3.286	-3.000
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	-	Pitching_SO	5.143	2.000	-1.143	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 2.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	27.100	13.000	25.000	9.000	25.000	4.000	4.2805	1.2439	0.4756	0.9146	0.3293	0.9146	0.1463
last_10	0.35	7	39.100	14.000	33.000	13.000	36.000	4.000	3.2034	1.1695	0.3559	0.8390	0.3305	0.9153	0.1017
season	0.20	7	39.100	14.000	33.000	13.000	36.000	4.000	3.2034	1.1695	0.3559	0.8390	0.3305	0.9153	0.1017

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.8200
predicted_ER	2.2610
predicted_ERA	3.6881
predicted_H	4.8160
predicted_HR	0.6720
predicted_IP	5.2000
predicted_SO	5.0480
predicted_WHIP	1.2030

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	1.8200	2.2330	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	2.2610	2.5196	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.6881	3.6881	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	4.8160	4.1804	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.6720	0.7868	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	2.2000	5.2000	4.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	4.0000	5.0480	4.6812	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2030	1.2030	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.2
H	3
R	3
ER	3
BB	3
SO	4
HR	1
BF	18
Pitches	82

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	24
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	3.20
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	8
Pitching_H	5
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.2
Pitching_Pitches	88
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	58
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_SD@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	681190
playerID	681190
playerName	Randy Vásquez
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	SD
teamID	23

Mason Miller (695243) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 17

All-history rows before 20260509: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_IP	2.100	2.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.006	1.000	1.094	1.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	2.000	2.000	-2.000	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 2.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	7.000	3.6000	1.0000	0.4000	0.8000	0.2000	1.4000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	2.000	6.000	2.000	15.000	1.8000	0.8000	0.2000	0.6000	0.2000	1.5000
season	0.20	17	17.100	2.000	7.000	3.000	34.000	1.0385	0.5769	0.1154	0.4038	0.1731	1.9615

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1950
predicted_ER	0.2730
predicted_ERA	2.4577
predicted_H	0.6510
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.5470
predicted_WHIP	0.8454

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1950	0.1268	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2730	0.1775	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.4577	2.4577	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6510	0.4232	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	2.1000	1.0000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.5470	1.0055	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.8454	0.8454	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.04
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_SD@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	695243
playerID	695243
playerName	Mason Miller
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SD
teamID	23

Jeremiah Estrada (669093) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 9

All-history rows before 20260509: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.556	1.000	-0.556	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.944	1.200	0.256	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.444	2.000	-1.444	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	7.000	1.000	1.5000	1.0000	0.1667	0.6667	0.3333	1.1667	0.1667
last_10	0.35	9	9.200	5.000	6.000	5.000	13.000	1.000	4.6552	1.1379	0.5172	0.6207	0.5172	1.3448	0.1035
season	0.20	9	9.200	5.000	6.000	5.000	13.000	1.000	4.6552	1.1379	0.5172	0.6207	0.5172	1.3448	0.1035

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5000
predicted_ER	0.4130
predicted_ERA	3.2354
predicted_H	0.7380
predicted_HR	0.1520
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.4540
predicted_WHIP	1.0758

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5000	0.3250	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4130	0.2685	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.2354	3.2354	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7380	0.4797	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1520	0.0988	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.0000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.4540	0.9451	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0758	1.0758	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	12

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	4.66
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.2
Pitching_Pitches	21
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	16
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_SD@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	669093
playerID	669093
playerName	Jeremiah Estrada
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SD
teamID	23

Bradgley Rodriguez (699134) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 16

All-history rows before 20260509: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.250	1.000	-0.250	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.963	1.000	0.037	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.875	2.000	-0.875	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	1.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	1.5882	0.7059	0.1765	0.5294	0.1765	0.3529
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	3.000	7.000	4.000	6.000	2.6129	1.0645	0.2903	0.6774	0.3871	0.5806
season	0.20	16	18.200	4.000	15.000	5.000	14.000	1.9286	1.0714	0.2143	0.8036	0.2679	0.7500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2860
predicted_ER	0.2390
predicted_ERA	2.0149
predicted_H	0.6780
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.5460
predicted_WHIP	0.9045

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2860	0.1859	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2390	0.1553	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.0149	2.0149	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.6780	0.7907	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.5460	0.3549	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9045	0.9045	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	10

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	1.93
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	14
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	699134
playerID	699134
playerName	Bradgley Rodriguez
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SD
teamID	23

Jason Adam (592094) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 12

All-history rows before 20260509: 12

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.858	1.000	0.142	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.417	0.000	1.583	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	1.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.6875	0.9375	0.1875	0.5625	0.3750	0.5625	0.1875
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	2.000	7.000	3.000	5.000	1.000	1.7419	0.9677	0.1935	0.6774	0.2903	0.4839	0.0968
season	0.20	12	11.000	2.000	7.000	3.000	5.000	1.000	1.6364	0.9091	0.1818	0.6364	0.2727	0.4546	0.0909

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3250
predicted_ER	0.1880
predicted_ERA	1.6963
predicted_H	0.6170
predicted_HR	0.1360
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.5130
predicted_WHIP	0.9424

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3250	0.5613	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1880	0.1222	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.6963	1.6963	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.6170	0.7510	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1360	0.0884	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.5130	1.0334	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9424	0.9424	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	2
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	26

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.64
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	23
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	17
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	592094
playerID	592094
playerName	Jason Adam
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SD
teamID	23

Adrian Morejon (670970) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 16

All-history rows before 20260509: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.750	0.000	-0.750	0.000
predicted_IP	0.100	0.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.075	2.000	-0.975	-1.900
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.562	4.000	-0.562	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 0.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	7.100	3.000	5.000	3.000	12.000	1.000	3.6818	1.0909	0.4091	0.6818	0.4091	1.6364	0.1364
last_10	0.35	10	13.100	4.000	6.000	4.000	20.000	2.000	2.7000	0.7500	0.3000	0.4500	0.3000	1.5000	0.1500
season	0.20	16	20.000	12.000	21.000	5.000	25.000	2.000	5.4000	1.3000	0.6000	1.0500	0.2500	1.2500	0.1000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4520
predicted_ER	0.5450
predicted_ERA	3.6818
predicted_H	0.8990
predicted_HR	0.1780
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	2.0150
predicted_WHIP	1.0134

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.4520	0.6438	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5450	0.3543	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.6818	3.6818	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8990	0.5844	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1780	0.1157	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	1.1000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	2.0150	1.6598	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0134	1.0134	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.40
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	26
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	4
Pitching_Strikes	20
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_SD@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	670970
playerID	670970
playerName	Adrian Morejon
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SD
teamID	23

20260509_TB@BOS

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "confidence": 0.56, "home_win_probability": 0.43999999999999995, "away_win_probability": 0.56, "predicted_score_text": "TB 4 - 3 BOS", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to final winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration.", "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score", "final_prediction_synced": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "TB 4 - 3 BOS", "winner": "TB"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "TB 4 - 3 BOS", "winner": "TB"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"}}

Away Team: TB

Jonathan Aranda (666018) · BATTER · DH · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 36

All-history rows before 20260509: 36

System season_avg: 0.2690

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2687

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.139	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.139	0.000	-0.139	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.780	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.722	3.000	0.278	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.342	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.269	0.333	0.231	0.167
predicted_BB	0.556	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.556	1.000	0.444	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.290	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.194	0.000	-0.194	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.437	0.600	0.600	Hitting_OBP	0.365	0.500	0.235	0.100
predicted_R	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.470	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	0.806	0.000	1.194	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.444	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.463	0.333	0.037	0.167
predicted_SO	1.056	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.056	2.000	-1.056	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.139	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.780	-
predicted_AVG	0.342	-
predicted_BB	0.556	-
predicted_H	1.290	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.437	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.470	-
predicted_SLG	0.444	-
predicted_SO	1.056	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.150	0.011
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.666	-0.114
predicted_AVG	0.342	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.515	-0.041
predicted_H	1.252	-0.038
predicted_HBP	0.139	-
predicted_HR	0.071	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.437	0.000
predicted_R	0.426	-0.074
predicted_RBI	0.458	-0.012
predicted_SLG	0.444	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.988	-0.068

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.78), rates preserved: AVG=0.331 HR/AB=0.019

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	0.3529	0.4762	0.4118	0.3529	0.0000	0.0588	0.1765	0.2353
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	14.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	3.000	3.000	11.000	0.3684	0.4286	0.4737	0.3684	0.0263	0.1579	0.0790	0.2895
season	0.20	36	-	134.000	36.000	5.000	7.000	29.000	18.000	20.000	38.000	0.2687	0.3648	0.4627	0.2687	0.0522	0.2164	0.1492	0.2836

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1560
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.6040
predicted_AVG	0.3415
predicted_BB	0.4930
predicted_H	1.2310
predicted_HBP	0.1390
predicted_HR	0.0710
predicted_OBP	0.4373
predicted_R	0.3870
predicted_RBI	0.4510
predicted_SLG	0.4436
predicted_SO	0.9510

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1390	0.1560	0.1501	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7800	3.6040	3.6656	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3420	0.3415	0.3417	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5560	0.4930	0.5151	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2900	1.2310	1.2517	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1390	0.1390	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0710	0.0706	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4370	0.4373	0.4372	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.3870	0.4265	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4700	0.4510	0.4577	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4440	0.4436	0.4437	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0560	0.9510	0.9877	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.269

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260508_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	666018
playerID	666018
playerName	Jonathan Aranda
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	TB
teamID	27

Nick Fortes (663743) · BATTER · C · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 24

All-history rows before 20260509: 24

System season_avg: 0.2930

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2927

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.208	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.208	0.000	-0.208	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.417	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.417	3.000	1.583	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.356	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.293	0.667	-0.293	-0.667
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.000	2.000	-1.000	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.042	0.000	-0.042	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.310	0.667	-0.310	-0.667
predicted_R	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.292	0.000	-0.292	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.388	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.390	0.667	-0.390	-0.667
predicted_SO	0.542	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.542	1.000	-0.542	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.208	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.417	-
predicted_AVG	0.356	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	1.190	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.360	-
predicted_R	0.250	-
predicted_RBI	0.100	-
predicted_SLG	0.388	-
predicted_SO	0.542	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.119	-0.089
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.141	-0.276
predicted_AVG	0.356	0.000
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.110	-0.080
predicted_HBP	0.015	-
predicted_HR	0.008	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.360	-0.000
predicted_R	0.224	-0.026
predicted_RBI	0.091	-0.009
predicted_SLG	0.388	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.467	-0.075

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.42), rates preserved: AVG=0.325 HR/AB=0.002

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	2.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 24

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	0.4286	0.4286	0.4286	0.4286	0.0000	0.0000	0.1429
last_10	0.35	10	-	30.000	9.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	0.3000	0.3000	0.3333	0.3000	0.0000	0.0333	0.1333
season	0.20	24	-	82.000	24.000	5.000	1.000	7.000	6.000	13.000	0.2927	0.3095	0.3902	0.2927	0.0122	0.0854	0.1585

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0710
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.9930
predicted_AVG	0.3564
predicted_BB	0.0000
predicted_H	1.0670
predicted_HBP	0.0150
predicted_HR	0.0070
predicted_OBP	0.3598
predicted_R	0.2100
predicted_RBI	0.0860
predicted_SLG	0.3876
predicted_SO	0.4270

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2080	0.0710	0.1189	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4170	2.9930	3.1414	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3560	0.3564	0.3563	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1900	1.0670	1.1100	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0150	0.0150	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0070	0.0080	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3600	0.3598	0.3599	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2500	0.2100	0.2240	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1000	0.0860	0.0909	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3880	0.3876	0.3877	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5420	0.4270	0.4673	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	24
Season rows before report date	24
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	24
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.293

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	1
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260508_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	663743
playerID	663743
playerName	Nick Fortes
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	TB
teamID	27

Jake Fraley (641584) · BATTER · 1B · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 21

All-history rows before 20260509: 21

System season_avg: 0.2620

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2615

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.095	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.095	4.000	-0.095	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.285	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.262	0.500	-0.262	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.333	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.820	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.810	2.000	-0.810	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.095	0.000	-0.095	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.322	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.500	-0.083	-0.250
predicted_R	0.238	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.238	1.000	-0.238	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.238	0.000	-0.238	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.095	0.000	-0.095	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.397	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.446	0.500	-0.446	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.762	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.762	1.000	-0.762	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.286	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.095	-
predicted_AVG	0.285	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.820	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.322	-
predicted_R	0.238	-
predicted_RBI	0.240	-
predicted_SLG	0.397	-
predicted_SO	0.762	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.207	-0.079
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	-0.095
predicted_AVG	0.285	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.230	-0.103
predicted_H	0.833	0.013
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.053	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.322	0.000
predicted_R	0.218	-0.019
predicted_RBI	0.243	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.397	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.864	0.102

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.10), rates preserved: AVG=0.269 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	5.000	0.2667	0.2667	0.2667	0.2667	0.0000	0.0667	0.0000	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	28.000	9.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	9.000	0.3214	0.3871	0.5357	0.3214	0.0357	0.1071	0.1071	0.3214
season	0.20	21	-	65.000	17.000	6.000	2.000	5.000	5.000	7.000	16.000	0.2615	0.3333	0.4462	0.2615	0.0308	0.0769	0.1077	0.2462

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1650
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.9490
predicted_AVG	0.2848
predicted_BB	0.1740
predicted_H	0.8400
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0550
predicted_OBP	0.3222
predicted_R	0.2080
predicted_RBI	0.2440
predicted_SLG	0.3967
predicted_SO	0.9190

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2860	0.1650	0.2073	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0950	2.9490	3.0001	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2850	0.2848	0.2849	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.1740	0.2296	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8200	0.8400	0.8330	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0550	0.0533	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3220	0.3222	0.3221	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2380	0.2080	0.2185	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2400	0.2440	0.2426	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3970	0.3967	0.3968	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7620	0.9190	0.8640	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.262

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260505_TOR@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	641584
playerID	641584
playerName	Jake Fraley
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	TB
teamID	27

Richie Palacios (680700) · BATTER · 2B · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 18

All-history rows before 20260509: 18

System season_avg: 0.1740

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1739

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.056	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.660	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	2.556	3.000	1.444	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.074	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.174	0.000	0.076	0.250
predicted_BB	0.556	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.556	0.000	0.444	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_H	0.200	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.444	0.000	0.556	1.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.228	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.339	0.000	0.061	0.400
predicted_R	0.389	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.389	0.000	-0.389	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.104	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.261	0.000	-0.011	0.250
predicted_SO	0.722	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.722	1.000	0.278	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.056	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.660	-
predicted_AVG	0.074	-
predicted_BB	0.556	-
predicted_H	0.200	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.228	-
predicted_R	0.389	-
predicted_RBI	0.170	-
predicted_SLG	0.104	-
predicted_SO	0.722	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.050	-0.006
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.696	0.036
predicted_AVG	0.074	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.556	0.000
predicted_H	0.200	0.000
predicted_HBP	0.024	-
predicted_HR	0.011	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.228	-0.000
predicted_R	0.236	-0.153
predicted_RBI	0.170	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.104	0.000
predicted_SO	0.979	0.257

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.70), rates preserved: AVG=0.074 HR/AB=0.004

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	7.000	0.0000	0.1667	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0714	0.2143	0.5000
last_10	0.35	10	-	27.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	10.000	0.1111	0.2424	0.1481	0.1111	0.0000	0.0370	0.1852	0.3704
season	0.20	18	-	46.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	7.000	10.000	13.000	0.1739	0.3390	0.2609	0.1739	0.0217	0.0870	0.2174	0.2826

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0470
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.7160
predicted_AVG	0.0737
predicted_BB	0.5560
predicted_H	0.2000
predicted_HBP	0.0240
predicted_HR	0.0120
predicted_OBP	0.2277
predicted_R	0.1530
predicted_RBI	0.1700
predicted_SLG	0.1040
predicted_SO	1.1170

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0560	0.0470	0.0502	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.6600	2.7160	2.6964	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.0740	0.0737	0.0738	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5560	0.5560	0.5560	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0240	0.0240	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0120	0.0113	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2280	0.2277	0.2278	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3890	0.1530	0.2356	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1700	0.1700	0.1700	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1040	0.1040	0.1040	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7220	1.1170	0.9788	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.174

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260505_TOR@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	680700
playerID	680700
playerName	Richie Palacios
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	TB
teamID	27

Yandy Díaz (650490) · BATTER · 3B · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 36

All-history rows before 20260509: 36

System season_avg: 0.3160

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3162

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_3B	0.028	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_AB	3.778	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.778	3.000	-0.778	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.248	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.316	0.000	0.017	0.333
predicted_BB	0.361	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.361	0.000	0.639	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.790	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.194	0.000	-0.194	1.000
predicted_HR	0.090	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.139	0.000	0.861	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.300	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.397	0.250	0.103	0.250
predicted_R	0.556	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.556	0.000	0.444	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.639	0.000	0.361	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.372	1.333	1.333	Hitting_SLG	0.471	0.000	0.863	1.333
predicted_SO	0.556	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.556	3.000	0.444	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	-
predicted_3B	0.028	-
predicted_AB	3.778	-
predicted_AVG	0.248	-
predicted_BB	0.361	-
predicted_H	0.790	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.300	-
predicted_R	0.556	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.372	-
predicted_SO	0.556	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.134	0.023
predicted_3B	0.013	-0.015
predicted_AB	3.721	-0.057
predicted_AVG	0.248	0.000
predicted_BB	0.244	-0.117
predicted_H	0.871	0.081
predicted_HBP	0.157	-
predicted_HR	0.097	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.300	0.000
predicted_R	0.442	-0.114
predicted_RBI	0.462	0.042
predicted_SLG	0.372	0.000
predicted_SO	0.637	0.081

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.78), rates preserved: AVG=0.231 HR/AB=0.026

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	0.2105	0.2381	0.2632	0.2105	0.0000	0.1053	0.0000	0.2105
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	9.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	5.000	3.000	6.000	0.2571	0.3250	0.4571	0.2571	0.0571	0.1429	0.0857	0.1714
season	0.20	36	-	136.000	43.000	4.000	1.000	5.000	23.000	20.000	13.000	20.000	0.3162	0.3974	0.4706	0.3162	0.0368	0.1691	0.0956	0.1471

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1460
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.6910
predicted_AVG	0.2480
predicted_BB	0.1810
predicted_H	0.9150
predicted_HBP	0.1570
predicted_HR	0.1010
predicted_OBP	0.3004
predicted_R	0.3800
predicted_RBI	0.4840
predicted_SLG	0.3725
predicted_SO	0.6800

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1110	0.1460	0.1337	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0280	0.0050	0.0130	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7780	3.6910	3.7214	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2480	0.2480	0.2480	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3610	0.1810	0.2440	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7900	0.9150	0.8712	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1570	0.1570	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.1010	0.0972	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3000	0.3004	0.3003	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5560	0.3800	0.4416	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.4840	0.4616	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3720	0.3725	0.3723	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5560	0.6800	0.6366	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.316

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260508_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	650490
playerID	650490
playerName	Yandy Díaz
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	TB
teamID	27

Taylor Walls (670764) · BATTER · SS · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 26

All-history rows before 20260509: 26

System season_avg: 0.2030

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2025

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.115	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.115	0.000	0.885	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.160	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.038	3.000	1.962	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.195	0.600	0.600	Hitting_AVG	0.203	0.333	0.397	0.267
predicted_BB	0.423	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.423	0.000	-0.423	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.038	0.000	-0.038	0.000
predicted_H	0.620	3.000	3.000	Hitting_H	0.615	1.000	2.385	2.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.317	0.600	0.600	Hitting_OBP	0.308	0.333	0.292	0.267
predicted_R	0.423	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.423	0.000	0.577	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.231	0.000	-0.231	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.192	0.000	-0.192	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.216	0.800	0.800	Hitting_SLG	0.241	0.333	0.559	0.467
predicted_SO	0.923	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.923	2.000	-0.923	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.115	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.160	-
predicted_AVG	0.195	-
predicted_BB	0.423	-
predicted_H	0.620	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.317	-
predicted_R	0.423	-
predicted_RBI	0.320	-
predicted_SLG	0.216	-
predicted_SO	0.923	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.079	-0.036
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.993	-0.167
predicted_AVG	0.195	0.000
predicted_BB	0.485	0.062
predicted_H	0.586	-0.034
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.317	0.000
predicted_R	0.274	-0.149
predicted_RBI	0.303	-0.017
predicted_SLG	0.216	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.803	-0.120

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.16), rates preserved: AVG=0.185 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	2.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 26

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	0.2000	0.2941	0.2000	0.2000	0.1333	0.1333	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	-	27.000	5.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	7.000	8.000	0.1852	0.3529	0.2222	0.1852	0.0741	0.2593	0.2963
season	0.20	26	-	79.000	16.000	3.000	6.000	11.000	11.000	24.000	0.2025	0.3077	0.2405	0.2025	0.0760	0.1392	0.3038

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0600
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.9030
predicted_AVG	0.1953
predicted_BB	0.5180
predicted_H	0.5670
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.3174
predicted_R	0.1940
predicted_RBI	0.2940
predicted_SLG	0.2159
predicted_SO	0.7390

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1150	0.0600	0.0793	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1600	2.9030	2.9929	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1950	0.1953	0.1952	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4230	0.5180	0.4848	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6200	0.5670	0.5856	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3170	0.3174	0.3173	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4230	0.1940	0.2742	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3200	0.2940	0.3031	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2160	0.2159	0.2159	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9230	0.7390	0.8034	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	26
Season rows before report date	26
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	26
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	3
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.203

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260508_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	670764
playerID	670764
playerName	Taylor Walls
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	TB
teamID	27

Chandler Simpson (802415) · BATTER · LF · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 35

All-history rows before 20260509: 35

System season_avg: 0.2910

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2908

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.029	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_3B	0.057	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.057	0.000	-0.057	0.000
predicted_AB	4.029	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.029	3.000	-0.029	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.229	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.291	0.000	-0.291	0.000
predicted_BB	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.114	0.000	-0.114	0.000
predicted_H	0.810	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.171	0.000	-1.171	0.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.239	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.320	0.000	-0.320	0.000
predicted_R	0.429	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.429	0.000	-0.429	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.314	0.000	-0.314	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.245	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.326	0.000	-0.326	0.000
predicted_SO	0.457	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.457	1.000	1.543	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.029	-
predicted_3B	0.057	-
predicted_AB	4.029	-
predicted_AVG	0.229	-
predicted_BB	0.200	-
predicted_H	0.810	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.239	-
predicted_R	0.429	-
predicted_RBI	0.180	-
predicted_SLG	0.245	-
predicted_SO	0.457	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.037	0.008
predicted_3B	0.027	-0.030
predicted_AB	3.991	-0.038
predicted_AVG	0.229	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.119	-0.081
predicted_H	0.874	0.064
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.239	0.000
predicted_R	0.472	0.043
predicted_RBI	0.193	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.245	0.000
predicted_SO	0.590	0.133

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.03), rates preserved: AVG=0.217 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 4.029

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	0.000	4.000	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	0.0500	0.0000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	9.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	6.000	0.2308	0.2439	0.2564	0.2308	0.0513	0.0256	0.1538
season	0.20	35	-	141.000	41.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	15.000	7.000	16.000	0.2908	0.3200	0.3262	0.2908	0.0496	0.0496	0.1135

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0410
predicted_3B	0.0110
predicted_AB	3.9710
predicted_AVG	0.2289
predicted_BB	0.0750
predicted_H	0.9090
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.2394
predicted_R	0.4950
predicted_RBI	0.2000
predicted_SLG	0.2450
predicted_SO	0.6610

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0290	0.0410	0.0368	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0570	0.0110	0.0271	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0290	3.9710	3.9913	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2290	0.2289	0.2289	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2000	0.0750	0.1187	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8100	0.9090	0.8743	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2390	0.2394	0.2393	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4290	0.4950	0.4719	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1800	0.2000	0.1930	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2450	0.2450	0.2450	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4570	0.6610	0.5896	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.291

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260508_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	802415
playerID	802415
playerName	Chandler Simpson
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	TB
teamID	27

Cedric Mullins (656775) · BATTER · CF · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 29

All-history rows before 20260509: 29

System season_avg: 0.1300

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1296

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.069	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.069	0.000	-0.069	0.000
predicted_3B	0.034	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.034	0.000	-0.034	0.000
predicted_AB	4.100	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.724	4.000	1.276	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.107	0.400	0.400	Hitting_AVG	0.130	0.250	0.270	0.150
predicted_BB	0.207	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.207	0.000	-0.207	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.069	0.000	-0.069	0.000
predicted_H	0.440	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.483	1.000	1.517	1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.069	0.000	-0.069	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.165	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.188	0.250	0.212	0.150
predicted_R	0.276	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.276	0.000	-0.276	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.345	1.000	-0.345	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.241	1.000	-0.241	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.125	0.400	0.400	Hitting_SLG	0.222	0.250	0.178	0.150
predicted_SO	0.793	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.793	0.000	0.207	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.069	-
predicted_3B	0.034	-
predicted_AB	4.100	-
predicted_AVG	0.107	-
predicted_BB	0.207	-
predicted_H	0.440	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.165	-
predicted_R	0.276	-
predicted_RBI	0.370	-
predicted_SLG	0.125	-
predicted_SO	0.793	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.033	-0.036
predicted_3B	0.016	-0.018
predicted_AB	3.746	-0.354
predicted_AVG	0.107	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.227	0.020
predicted_H	0.401	-0.039
predicted_HBP	0.013	-
predicted_HR	0.015	-0.005
predicted_OBP	0.165	0.000
predicted_R	0.154	-0.122
predicted_RBI	0.336	-0.034
predicted_SLG	0.125	0.000
predicted_SO	0.634	-0.159

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.10), rates preserved: AVG=0.098 HR/AB=0.004

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 4.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	0.1111	0.1579	0.1111	0.1111	0.0000	0.1111	0.0556	0.1111
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	0.0882	0.1622	0.0882	0.0882	0.0000	0.0588	0.0882	0.1765
season	0.20	29	-	108.000	14.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	10.000	8.000	6.000	23.000	0.1296	0.1880	0.2222	0.1296	0.0185	0.0926	0.0556	0.2130

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0130
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.5550
predicted_AVG	0.1068
predicted_BB	0.2380
predicted_H	0.3800
predicted_HBP	0.0130
predicted_HR	0.0130
predicted_OBP	0.1654
predicted_R	0.0890
predicted_RBI	0.3170
predicted_SLG	0.1253
predicted_SO	0.5490

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0690	0.0130	0.0326	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0340	0.0070	0.0164	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1000	3.5550	3.7458	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1070	0.1068	0.1069	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2070	0.2380	0.2271	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4400	0.3800	0.4010	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0130	0.0130	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0130	0.0154	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1650	0.1654	0.1653	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2760	0.0890	0.1545	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3700	0.3170	0.3356	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1250	0.1253	0.1252	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7930	0.5490	0.6344	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260507_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	656775
playerID	656775
playerName	Cedric Mullins
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	TB
teamID	27

Junior Caminero (691406) · BATTER · RF · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 37

All-history rows before 20260509: 37

System season_avg: 0.2540

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2535

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.081	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.081	0.000	-0.081	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.838	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.838	4.000	0.162	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.208	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.254	0.000	-0.004	0.250
predicted_BB	0.541	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.541	0.000	0.459	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.054	0.000	-0.054	0.000
predicted_H	0.760	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.973	0.000	0.027	1.000
predicted_HR	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.270	0.000	-0.270	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.325	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.344	0.000	0.056	0.400
predicted_R	0.622	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.622	0.000	0.378	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.486	0.000	0.514	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.391	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.486	0.000	-0.236	0.250
predicted_SO	0.730	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.730	0.000	-0.730	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.081	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.838	-
predicted_AVG	0.208	-
predicted_BB	0.541	-
predicted_H	0.760	-
predicted_HR	0.220	-
predicted_OBP	0.325	-
predicted_R	0.622	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.391	-
predicted_SO	0.730	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.038	-0.043
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.669	-0.169
predicted_AVG	0.208	0.000
predicted_BB	0.597	0.056
predicted_H	0.750	-0.010
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.215	-0.005
predicted_OBP	0.325	0.000
predicted_R	0.611	-0.011
predicted_RBI	0.384	-0.007
predicted_SLG	0.391	0.000
predicted_SO	0.675	-0.055

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.84), rates preserved: AVG=0.195 HR/AB=0.056

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.838

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	0.1667	0.2857	0.3333	0.1667	0.0556	0.1111	0.1667	0.1111
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	8.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	6.000	7.000	9.000	0.2353	0.3659	0.4118	0.2353	0.0588	0.0882	0.2059	0.2647
season	0.20	37	-	142.000	36.000	3.000	10.000	18.000	23.000	20.000	27.000	0.2535	0.3436	0.4859	0.2535	0.0704	0.1268	0.1409	0.1901

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0150
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.5780
predicted_AVG	0.2081
predicted_BB	0.6270
predicted_H	0.7440
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.2130
predicted_OBP	0.3254
predicted_R	0.6050
predicted_RBI	0.3800
predicted_SLG	0.3913
predicted_SO	0.6460

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0810	0.0150	0.0381	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8380	3.5780	3.6690	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2080	0.2081	0.2081	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5410	0.6270	0.5969	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7600	0.7440	0.7496	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2200	0.2130	0.2154	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3250	0.3254	0.3253	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6220	0.6050	0.6109	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.3800	0.3835	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3910	0.3913	0.3912	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7300	0.6460	0.6754	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.254

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260508_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	691406
playerID	691406
playerName	Junior Caminero
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	TB
teamID	27

Nick Martinez (607259) · PITCHER · Starter · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 7

All-history rows before 20260509: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.143	1.000	-1.143	-1.000
predicted_IP	4.100	4.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.900	5.000	-1.800	-0.900
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	-	Pitching_SO	4.000	4.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 4.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	30.000	5.000	26.000	9.000	21.000	1.000	1.5000	1.1667	0.1667	0.8667	0.3000	0.7000	0.0333
last_10	0.35	7	42.000	8.000	33.000	10.000	28.000	3.000	1.7143	1.0238	0.1905	0.7857	0.2381	0.6667	0.0714
season	0.20	7	42.000	8.000	33.000	10.000	28.000	3.000	1.7143	1.0238	0.1905	0.7857	0.2381	0.6667	0.0714

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.5960
predicted_ER	1.0790
predicted_ERA	1.6179
predicted_H	4.9330
predicted_HR	0.3260
predicted_IP	6.0000
predicted_SO	4.0900
predicted_WHIP	1.0881

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	1.5960	1.3874	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	1.0790	0.7014	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.6179	1.6179	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	4.9330	3.9064	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.3260	0.2119	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.1000	6.0000	5.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	4.0000	4.0900	4.0585	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0881	1.0881	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.1
H	2
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	4
HR	0
BF	18
Pitches	72

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	21
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	1.71
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	4
Pitching_H	5
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.0
Pitching_Pitches	71
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	4
Pitching_Strikes	51
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_TOR@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	607259
playerID	607259
playerName	Nick Martinez
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	TB
teamID	27

Garrett Cleavinger (664076) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 6

All-history rows before 20260509: 6

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.500	1.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.700	1.000	0.500	0.200
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	1.000	4.000	4.000	6.000	2.0769	1.8462	0.2308	0.9231	0.9231	1.3846
last_10	0.35	6	4.200	3.000	6.000	4.000	6.000	5.7857	2.1429	0.6429	1.2857	0.8571	1.2857
season	0.20	6	4.200	3.000	6.000	4.000	6.000	5.7857	2.1429	0.6429	1.2857	0.8571	1.2857

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.7240
predicted_ER	0.3740
predicted_ERA	4.1167
predicted_H	0.9170
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	1.0860
predicted_WHIP	2.0094

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.7240	0.4706	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.3740	0.5931	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.1167	4.1167	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.9170	0.9461	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	0.2000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.0860	1.4059	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	2.0094	2.0094	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	5.79
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	664076
playerID	664076
playerName	Garrett Cleavinger
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TB
teamID	27

Bryan Baker (641329) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 16

All-history rows before 20260509: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.250	0.000	-0.250
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.887	1.000	0.113
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	0.000	2.000	0.000	5.000	0.000	0.0000	0.4615	0.0000	0.4615	0.0000	1.1539	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.200	1.000	4.000	2.000	9.000	0.000	1.0385	0.6923	0.1154	0.4615	0.2308	1.0385	0.0000
season	0.20	16	14.200	4.000	9.000	3.000	16.000	1.000	2.4545	0.8182	0.2727	0.6136	0.2046	1.0909	0.0682

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1220
predicted_ER	0.0950
predicted_ERA	0.8544
predicted_H	0.4920
predicted_HR	0.0140
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1010
predicted_WHIP	0.6136

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1220	0.0793	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.0950	0.0618	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.8544	0.8544	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.4920	0.3198	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0140	0.0091	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1010	1.0656	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.6136	0.6136	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.45
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_TOR@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	641329
playerID	641329
playerName	Bryan Baker
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TB
teamID	27

Cole Sulser (642121) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 16

All-history rows before 20260509: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.375	0.000	1.625	2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.219	1.000	-0.219	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.000	0.0000	0.4000	0.0000	0.2000	0.2000	1.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	11.200	0.000	6.000	3.000	9.000	0.000	0.0000	0.7714	0.0000	0.5143	0.2571	0.7714	0.0000
season	0.20	16	20.200	6.000	19.000	8.000	16.000	1.000	2.6129	1.3065	0.2903	0.9194	0.3871	0.7742	0.0484

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3050
predicted_ER	0.0690
predicted_ERA	0.5226
predicted_H	0.5370
predicted_HR	0.0110
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.0350
predicted_WHIP	0.7113

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3050	0.5483	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.0690	0.7449	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.5226	0.5226	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	0.5370	1.3990	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0110	0.0072	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.1000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0350	1.0227	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.7113	0.7113	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	3
R	2
ER	2
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	7
Pitches	32

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.61
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	642121
playerID	642121
playerName	Cole Sulser
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TB
teamID	27

Ian Seymour (693855) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 16

All-history rows before 20260509: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.625	0.000	-0.625	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.944	1.000	0.056	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.250	1.000	0.750	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	0.000	0.0000	1.2000	0.0000	0.6000	0.6000	0.8000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	11.000	4.000	9.000	7.000	12.000	1.000	3.2727	1.4545	0.3636	0.8182	0.6364	1.0909	0.0909
season	0.20	15	17.200	5.000	12.000	7.000	20.000	1.000	2.5472	1.0755	0.2830	0.6793	0.3962	1.1321	0.0566

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6100
predicted_ER	0.1960
predicted_ERA	1.6549
predicted_H	0.7380
predicted_HR	0.0460
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0330
predicted_WHIP	1.2642

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.6100	0.3965	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1960	0.1274	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.6549	1.6549	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7380	0.4797	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0460	0.0299	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.0330	1.3714	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2642	1.2642	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.09
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_TOR@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	693855
playerID	693855
playerName	Ian Seymour
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TB
teamID	27

Home Team: BOS

Ceddanne Rafaela (678882) · BATTER · DH · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 34

All-history rows before 20260509: 34

System season_avg: 0.2760

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2764

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.118	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_3B	0.059	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_AB	3.980	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.618	4.000	0.382	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.334	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.276	0.500	-0.276	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.235	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.235	0.000	-0.235	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.088	0.000	-0.088	0.000
predicted_H	1.330	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.000	2.000	-1.000	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.088	1.000	-0.088	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.346	0.500	-0.346	-0.500
predicted_R	0.471	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.471	1.000	-0.471	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.840	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.412	1.000	-0.412	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.550	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.415	1.250	-0.415	-1.250
predicted_SO	0.882	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.882	0.000	0.118	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.118	-
predicted_3B	0.059	-
predicted_AB	3.980	-
predicted_AVG	0.334	-
predicted_BB	0.235	-
predicted_H	1.330	-
predicted_HR	0.270	-
predicted_OBP	0.390	-
predicted_R	0.471	-
predicted_RBI	0.840	-
predicted_SLG	0.550	-
predicted_SO	0.882	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.058	-0.060
predicted_3B	0.029	-0.030
predicted_AB	3.921	-0.059
predicted_AVG	0.334	0.000
predicted_BB	0.274	0.039
predicted_H	1.310	-0.020
predicted_HBP	0.067	-
predicted_HR	0.266	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.390	0.000
predicted_R	0.549	0.078
predicted_RBI	0.829	-0.011
predicted_SLG	0.550	0.000
predicted_SO	0.829	-0.053

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.98), rates preserved: AVG=0.329 HR/AB=0.067

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.980

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	8.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	6.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	0.4000	0.4545	0.7000	0.4000	0.1000	0.3000	0.1000	0.1500
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	11.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	6.000	4.000	2.000	10.000	0.2821	0.3333	0.4359	0.2821	0.0513	0.1538	0.0513	0.2564
season	0.20	34	-	123.000	34.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	14.000	16.000	8.000	30.000	0.2764	0.3456	0.4146	0.2764	0.0244	0.1138	0.0650	0.2439

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0250
predicted_3B	0.0130
predicted_AB	3.8890
predicted_AVG	0.3340
predicted_BB	0.2950
predicted_H	1.2990
predicted_HBP	0.0670
predicted_HR	0.2640
predicted_OBP	0.3903
predicted_R	0.5910
predicted_RBI	0.8230
predicted_SLG	0.5505
predicted_SO	0.8010

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1180	0.0250	0.0575	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0590	0.0130	0.0291	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9800	3.8890	3.9208	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3340	0.3340	0.3340	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2350	0.2950	0.2740	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.3300	1.2990	1.3098	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0670	0.0670	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2700	0.2640	0.2661	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3900	0.3903	0.3902	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4710	0.5910	0.5490	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.8400	0.8230	0.8290	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5500	0.5505	0.5503	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8820	0.8010	0.8294	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.276

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260508_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	678882
playerID	678882
playerName	Ceddanne Rafaela
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	BOS
teamID	4

Marcelo Mayer (691785) · BATTER · C · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 29

All-history rows before 20260509: 29

System season_avg: 0.2210

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2211

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.172	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.172	0.000	-0.172	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.410	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.276	4.000	0.724	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.226	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.221	0.000	0.029	0.250
predicted_BB	0.276	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.276	0.000	-0.276	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.770	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.724	0.000	0.276	1.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.034	0.000	-0.034	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.295	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.292	0.000	-0.042	0.250
predicted_R	0.241	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.241	0.000	-0.241	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.276	0.000	-0.276	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.069	0.000	-0.069	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.243	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.305	0.000	-0.055	0.250
predicted_SO	0.690	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.690	1.000	1.310	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.172	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.410	-
predicted_AVG	0.226	-
predicted_BB	0.276	-
predicted_H	0.770	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.295	-
predicted_R	0.241	-
predicted_RBI	0.240	-
predicted_SLG	0.243	-
predicted_SO	0.690	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.085	-0.087
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.550	0.140
predicted_AVG	0.226	0.000
predicted_BB	0.238	-0.038
predicted_H	0.803	0.033
predicted_HBP	0.136	-
predicted_HR	0.009	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.295	-0.000
predicted_R	0.299	0.058
predicted_RBI	0.248	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.243	0.000
predicted_SO	0.859	0.169

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.55), rates preserved: AVG=0.226 HR/AB=0.002

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	6.000	0.2105	0.2857	0.2105	0.2105	0.0000	0.0526	0.0526	0.3158
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	9.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	8.000	0.2500	0.3077	0.2500	0.2500	0.0000	0.0833	0.0556	0.2222
season	0.20	29	-	95.000	21.000	5.000	1.000	8.000	7.000	8.000	20.000	0.2211	0.2925	0.3053	0.2210	0.0105	0.0842	0.0842	0.2105

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0380
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.6250
predicted_AVG	0.2264
predicted_BB	0.2170
predicted_H	0.8210
predicted_HBP	0.1360
predicted_HR	0.0080
predicted_OBP	0.2948
predicted_R	0.3310
predicted_RBI	0.2530
predicted_SLG	0.2433
predicted_SO	0.9500

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1720	0.0380	0.0849	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4100	3.6250	3.5498	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2260	0.2264	0.2263	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2760	0.2170	0.2377	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7700	0.8210	0.8031	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1360	0.1360	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0080	0.0087	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2950	0.2948	0.2949	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2410	0.3310	0.2995	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2400	0.2530	0.2485	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2430	0.2433	0.2432	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6900	0.9500	0.8590	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.221

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260508_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	691785
playerID	691785
playerName	Marcelo Mayer
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	BOS
teamID	4

Trevor Story (596115) · BATTER · 1B · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 37

All-history rows before 20260509: 37

System season_avg: 0.1990

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1987

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.162	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.162	0.000	-0.162	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.230	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.081	4.000	-0.081	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.174	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.199	0.000	0.051	0.250
predicted_BB	0.189	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.189	0.000	-0.189	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.740	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.811	0.000	0.189	1.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.054	0.000	-0.054	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.212	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.236	0.000	0.014	0.250
predicted_R	0.378	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.378	0.000	-0.378	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.486	0.000	-0.486	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.108	0.000	-0.108	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.199	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.278	0.000	-0.028	0.250
predicted_SO	1.405	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.405	3.000	-0.405	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.162	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.230	-
predicted_AVG	0.174	-
predicted_BB	0.189	-
predicted_H	0.740	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.212	-
predicted_R	0.378	-
predicted_RBI	0.140	-
predicted_SLG	0.199	-
predicted_SO	1.405	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.102	-0.060
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.149	-0.081
predicted_AVG	0.174	0.000
predicted_BB	0.114	-0.075
predicted_H	0.724	-0.016
predicted_HBP	0.129	-
predicted_HR	0.011	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.212	0.000
predicted_R	0.423	0.045
predicted_RBI	0.136	-0.004
predicted_SLG	0.199	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.655	0.250

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.23), rates preserved: AVG=0.171 HR/AB=0.003

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 4.230

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	0.000	11.000	0.1429	0.1818	0.1429	0.1429	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.5238
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	8.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	15.000	0.2000	0.2381	0.2250	0.2000	0.0000	0.0250	0.0250	0.3750
season	0.20	37	-	151.000	30.000	6.000	2.000	18.000	14.000	7.000	52.000	0.1987	0.2360	0.2781	0.1987	0.0132	0.1192	0.0464	0.3444

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0690
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.1060
predicted_AVG	0.1740
predicted_BB	0.0740
predicted_H	0.7150
predicted_HBP	0.1290
predicted_HR	0.0110
predicted_OBP	0.2123
predicted_R	0.4480
predicted_RBI	0.1340
predicted_SLG	0.1987
predicted_SO	1.7900

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1620	0.0690	0.1016	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.2300	4.1060	4.1494	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1740	0.1740	0.1740	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1890	0.0740	0.1142	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7400	0.7150	0.7238	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1290	0.1290	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0110	0.0106	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2120	0.2123	0.2122	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3780	0.4480	0.4235	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1400	0.1340	0.1361	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1990	0.1987	0.1988	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4050	1.7900	1.6552	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.199

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260508_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	596115
playerID	596115
playerName	Trevor Story
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	BOS
teamID	4

Masataka Yoshida (807799) · BATTER · 2B · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 16

All-history rows before 20260509: 16

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.188	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.188	0.000	-0.188	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.500	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	4.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.231	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_BB	0.562	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.562	0.000	-0.562	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.690	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.875	0.000	-0.875	0.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.285	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.364	0.000	-0.364	0.000
predicted_R	0.438	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.438	0.000	-0.438	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.251	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.304	0.000	-0.304	0.000
predicted_SO	0.375	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.375	0.000	0.625	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.188	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.231	-
predicted_BB	0.562	-
predicted_H	0.690	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.285	-
predicted_R	0.438	-
predicted_RBI	0.070	-
predicted_SLG	0.251	-
predicted_SO	0.375	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.113	-0.075
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.620	0.120
predicted_AVG	0.231	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.377	-0.185
predicted_H	0.794	0.104
predicted_HBP	0.013	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.285	0.000
predicted_R	0.441	0.003
predicted_RBI	0.080	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.251	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.388	0.013

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.62), rates preserved: AVG=0.219 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	0.2222	0.2632	0.2222	0.2222	0.0000	0.0556	0.1111
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	9.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	4.000	0.2308	0.2683	0.2564	0.2308	0.0256	0.0513	0.1026
season	0.20	16	-	56.000	14.000	3.000	4.000	7.000	9.000	6.000	0.2500	0.3636	0.3036	0.2500	0.0714	0.1607	0.1071

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0730
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.6850
predicted_AVG	0.2308
predicted_BB	0.2770
predicted_H	0.8500
predicted_HBP	0.0130
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.2851
predicted_R	0.4420
predicted_RBI	0.0860
predicted_SLG	0.2505
predicted_SO	0.3950

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1880	0.0730	0.1132	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5000	3.6850	3.6203	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2310	0.2308	0.2309	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5620	0.2770	0.3768	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6900	0.8500	0.7940	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0130	0.0130	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2850	0.2851	0.2851	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4380	0.4420	0.4406	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0700	0.0860	0.0804	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2510	0.2505	0.2507	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3750	0.3950	0.3880	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260508_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	807799
playerID	807799
playerName	Masataka Yoshida
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	BOS
teamID	4

Jarren Duran (680776) · BATTER · 3B · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 32

All-history rows before 20260509: 32

System season_avg: 0.1970

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1970

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.188	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.188	0.000	0.812	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.125	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.125	4.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.220	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.197	0.250	0.053	0.000
predicted_BB	0.312	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.312	0.000	-0.312	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.790	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.812	1.000	0.188	0.000
predicted_HR	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.280	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.259	0.250	-0.009	0.000
predicted_R	0.594	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.594	0.000	0.406	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.540	3.000	3.000	Hitting_RBI	0.562	0.000	2.438	3.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.250	1.000	-0.250	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.414	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.333	0.250	0.167	0.250
predicted_SO	1.125	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.125	0.000	-0.125	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.188	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.125	-
predicted_AVG	0.220	-
predicted_BB	0.312	-
predicted_H	0.790	-
predicted_HR	0.190	-
predicted_OBP	0.280	-
predicted_R	0.594	-
predicted_RBI	0.540	-
predicted_SLG	0.414	-
predicted_SO	1.125	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.172	-0.016
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.187	0.062
predicted_AVG	0.220	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.335	0.023
predicted_H	0.880	0.090
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.209	0.019
predicted_OBP	0.280	0.000
predicted_R	0.516	-0.078
predicted_RBI	0.597	0.057
predicted_SLG	0.414	0.000
predicted_SO	1.282	0.157

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.19), rates preserved: AVG=0.210 HR/AB=0.050

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	3.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 4.125

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	8.000	0.2381	0.3043	0.4286	0.2381	0.0476	0.1429	0.0952	0.3810
last_10	0.35	10	-	43.000	9.000	1.000	3.000	7.000	5.000	3.000	12.000	0.2093	0.2609	0.4419	0.2093	0.0698	0.1628	0.0698	0.2791
season	0.20	32	-	132.000	26.000	6.000	4.000	18.000	19.000	10.000	36.000	0.1970	0.2587	0.3333	0.1970	0.0303	0.1364	0.0758	0.2727

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1630
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.2200
predicted_AVG	0.2198
predicted_BB	0.3480
predicted_H	0.9280
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.2190
predicted_OBP	0.2800
predicted_R	0.4740
predicted_RBI	0.6270
predicted_SLG	0.4142
predicted_SO	1.3660

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1880	0.1630	0.1718	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1250	4.2200	4.1867	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2200	0.2198	0.2199	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3120	0.3480	0.3354	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7900	0.9280	0.8797	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1900	0.2190	0.2088	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2800	0.2800	0.2800	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5940	0.4740	0.5160	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5400	0.6270	0.5966	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4140	0.4142	0.4141	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1250	1.3660	1.2817	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	3
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.197

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260508_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	680776
playerID	680776
playerName	Jarren Duran
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	BOS
teamID	4

Carlos Narváez (665966) · BATTER · SS · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 24

All-history rows before 20260509: 24

System season_avg: 0.2080

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2078

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.208	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.208	2.000	-0.208	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.135	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.208	0.000	0.126	0.333
predicted_BB	0.208	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.208	0.000	0.792	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.420	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.667	0.000	0.333	1.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.274	0.333	0.226	0.167
predicted_R	0.375	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.375	0.000	0.625	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.042	0.000	-0.042	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.274	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.325	0.000	0.009	0.333
predicted_SO	0.958	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.958	1.000	0.042	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.208	-
predicted_AVG	0.135	-
predicted_BB	0.208	-
predicted_H	0.420	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.375	-
predicted_RBI	0.100	-
predicted_SLG	0.274	-
predicted_SO	0.958	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.144	0.019
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.983	-0.225
predicted_AVG	0.135	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.355	0.147
predicted_H	0.397	-0.023
predicted_HBP	0.280	-
predicted_HR	0.085	-0.005
predicted_OBP	0.305	-0.000
predicted_R	0.476	0.101
predicted_RBI	0.093	-0.007
predicted_SLG	0.274	0.000
predicted_SO	0.899	-0.058

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.21), rates preserved: AVG=0.124 HR/AB=0.026

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 24

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	13.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	0.0769	0.3333	0.1538	0.0769	0.0000	0.0000	0.2308	0.3077
last_10	0.35	10	-	30.000	5.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	3.000	9.000	0.1667	0.2857	0.4000	0.1667	0.0667	0.0667	0.1000	0.3000
season	0.20	24	-	77.000	16.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	9.000	5.000	23.000	0.2078	0.2738	0.3247	0.2078	0.0260	0.0390	0.0649	0.2987

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1550
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.8620
predicted_AVG	0.1345
predicted_BB	0.4340
predicted_H	0.3850
predicted_HBP	0.2800
predicted_HR	0.0820
predicted_OBP	0.3047
predicted_R	0.5310
predicted_RBI	0.0890
predicted_SLG	0.2742
predicted_SO	0.8680

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1250	0.1550	0.1445	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2080	2.8620	2.9831	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1350	0.1345	0.1347	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2080	0.4340	0.3549	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4200	0.3850	0.3972	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.2800	0.2800	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.0820	0.0848	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3047	0.3048	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3750	0.5310	0.4764	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1000	0.0890	0.0928	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2740	0.2742	0.2741	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9580	0.8680	0.8995	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	24
Season rows before report date	24
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	24
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.208

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260508_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	665966
playerID	665966
playerName	Carlos Narváez
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	BOS
teamID	4

Wilyer Abreu (677800) · BATTER · LF · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 38

All-history rows before 20260509: 38

System season_avg: 0.3030

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3028

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.158	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.158	0.000	-0.158	0.000
predicted_3B	0.026	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_AB	3.737	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.737	2.000	0.263	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.314	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.303	0.500	-0.053	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.526	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.526	2.000	-0.526	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_H	1.080	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.132	1.000	-0.132	0.000
predicted_HR	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.158	1.000	-0.158	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.428	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.387	0.750	-0.137	-0.500
predicted_R	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.610	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.474	1.000	-0.474	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.079	0.000	-0.079	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.562	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.486	2.000	-0.236	-1.750
predicted_SO	0.816	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.816	0.000	0.184	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.158	-
predicted_3B	0.026	-
predicted_AB	3.737	-
predicted_AVG	0.314	-
predicted_BB	0.526	-
predicted_H	1.080	-
predicted_HR	0.270	-
predicted_OBP	0.428	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.610	-
predicted_SLG	0.562	-
predicted_SO	0.816	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.075	-0.083
predicted_3B	0.012	-0.014
predicted_AB	3.620	-0.117
predicted_AVG	0.314	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.718	0.192
predicted_H	1.103	0.023
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.277	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.428	0.000
predicted_R	0.563	0.063
predicted_RBI	0.622	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.562	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.995	0.179

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.74), rates preserved: AVG=0.295 HR/AB=0.074

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	4.000	6.000	0.3333	0.4348	0.6667	0.3333	0.1111	0.2222	0.2222	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	10.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	4.000	10.000	11.000	0.2941	0.4444	0.4706	0.2941	0.0588	0.1471	0.2941	0.3235
season	0.20	38	-	142.000	43.000	6.000	1.000	6.000	18.000	19.000	20.000	31.000	0.3028	0.3865	0.4859	0.3028	0.0423	0.1268	0.1409	0.2183

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0300
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.5570
predicted_AVG	0.3135
predicted_BB	0.8220
predicted_H	1.1150
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.2810
predicted_OBP	0.4285
predicted_R	0.5970
predicted_RBI	0.6290
predicted_SLG	0.5619
predicted_SO	1.0920

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1580	0.0300	0.0748	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0260	0.0050	0.0123	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7370	3.5570	3.6200	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3140	0.3135	0.3137	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5260	0.8220	0.7184	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0800	1.1150	1.1027	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2700	0.2810	0.2772	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4280	0.4285	0.4283	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.5970	0.5631	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6100	0.6290	0.6223	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5620	0.5619	0.5619	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8160	1.0920	0.9954	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.303

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	1
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260508_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	677800
playerID	677800
playerName	Wilyer Abreu
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	BOS
teamID	4

Willson Contreras (575929) · BATTER · CF · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 38

All-history rows before 20260509: 38

System season_avg: 0.2590

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2593

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.105	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.105	0.000	-0.105	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.600	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.553	2.000	-0.553	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.202	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.259	0.000	0.074	0.333
predicted_BB	0.526	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.526	2.000	0.474	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.730	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.921	0.000	0.079	1.000
predicted_HR	0.210	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.211	0.000	-0.211	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.344	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.376	0.500	0.124	0.000
predicted_R	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.450	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.605	0.000	-0.605	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.401	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.467	0.000	-0.133	0.333
predicted_SO	1.237	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.237	1.000	-0.237	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.105	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.600	-
predicted_AVG	0.202	-
predicted_BB	0.526	-
predicted_H	0.730	-
predicted_HR	0.210	-
predicted_OBP	0.344	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.450	-
predicted_SLG	0.401	-
predicted_SO	1.237	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.095	-0.010
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.536	-0.064
predicted_AVG	0.202	0.000
predicted_BB	0.685	0.159
predicted_H	0.715	-0.015
predicted_HBP	0.070	-
predicted_HR	0.205	-0.005
predicted_OBP	0.344	0.000
predicted_R	0.448	-0.052
predicted_RBI	0.444	-0.006
predicted_SLG	0.401	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.338	0.101

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.60), rates preserved: AVG=0.199 HR/AB=0.057

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, BvP AVG=0.429)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	8.000	0.1176	0.3043	0.2941	0.1177	0.0588	0.1177	0.2941	0.4706
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	10.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	6.000	12.000	0.2778	0.3778	0.5000	0.2778	0.0556	0.1111	0.1667	0.3333
season	0.20	38	-	135.000	35.000	4.000	8.000	23.000	19.000	20.000	47.000	0.2593	0.3758	0.4667	0.2593	0.0593	0.1704	0.1482	0.3482

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0890
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.5010
predicted_AVG	0.2020
predicted_BB	0.7710
predicted_H	0.7070
predicted_HBP	0.0700
predicted_HR	0.2020
predicted_OBP	0.3443
predicted_R	0.4200
predicted_RBI	0.4410
predicted_SLG	0.4007
predicted_SO	1.3930

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1050	0.0890	0.0946	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6000	3.5010	3.5357	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2020	0.2020	0.2020	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5260	0.7710	0.6852	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7300	0.7070	0.7150	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0700	0.0700	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2100	0.2020	0.2048	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3440	0.3443	0.3442	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.4200	0.4480	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4500	0.4410	0.4442	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4010	0.4007	0.4008	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2370	1.3930	1.3384	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.259

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260508_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	575929
playerID	575929
playerName	Willson Contreras
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	BOS
teamID	4

Caleb Durbin (702332) · BATTER · RF · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 35

All-history rows before 20260509: 35

System season_avg: 0.1790

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1789

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.514	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.514	3.000	0.486	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.201	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.179	0.000	-0.179	0.000
predicted_BB	0.314	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.314	0.000	-0.314	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_H	0.670	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.629	0.000	-0.629	0.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.231	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.257	0.000	-0.257	0.000
predicted_R	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.371	0.000	-0.371	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.114	0.000	-0.114	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.251	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.260	0.000	-0.260	0.000
predicted_SO	0.543	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.543	1.000	0.457	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.514	-
predicted_AVG	0.201	-
predicted_BB	0.314	-
predicted_H	0.670	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.231	-
predicted_R	0.400	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.251	-
predicted_SO	0.543	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.177	-0.023
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.595	0.081
predicted_AVG	0.201	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.200	-0.114
predicted_H	0.708	0.038
predicted_HBP	0.012	-
predicted_HR	0.007	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.231	0.000
predicted_R	0.297	-0.103
predicted_RBI	0.467	0.027
predicted_SLG	0.251	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.525	-0.018

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.59), rates preserved: AVG=0.197 HR/AB=0.002

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	0.2105	0.2105	0.2632	0.2105	0.0000	0.1579	0.0000	0.1579
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	0.2000	0.2432	0.2286	0.2000	0.0000	0.1143	0.0571	0.1143
season	0.20	35	-	123.000	22.000	7.000	1.000	13.000	14.000	11.000	19.000	0.1789	0.2574	0.2602	0.1789	0.0081	0.1057	0.0894	0.1545

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1640
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.6380
predicted_AVG	0.2005
predicted_BB	0.1380
predicted_H	0.7290
predicted_HBP	0.0120
predicted_HR	0.0060
predicted_OBP	0.2313
predicted_R	0.2420
predicted_RBI	0.4810
predicted_SLG	0.2505
predicted_SO	0.5160

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.1640	0.1766	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5140	3.6380	3.5946	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2010	0.2005	0.2007	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3140	0.1380	0.1996	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6700	0.7290	0.7084	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0120	0.0120	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0060	0.0074	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2310	0.2313	0.2312	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4000	0.2420	0.2973	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.4810	0.4667	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2510	0.2505	0.2507	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5430	0.5160	0.5254	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.179

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260508_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	702332
playerID	702332
playerName	Caleb Durbin
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	BOS
teamID	4

Payton Tolle (801139) · PITCHER · Starter · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 3

All-history rows before 20260509: 3

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.333	0.000	0.667	2.000
predicted_IP	4.200	4.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.733	7.000	-1.533	-2.800
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	-	Pitching_SO	7.667	8.000	-3.667	-4.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 3

Reference playing time: 4.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	3	17.200	4.000	7.000	6.000	23.000	1.000	2.0377	0.7358	0.2264	0.3962	0.3396	1.3019	0.0566
last_10	0.35	3	17.200	4.000	7.000	6.000	23.000	1.000	2.0377	0.7358	0.2264	0.3962	0.3396	1.3019	0.0566
season	0.20	3	17.200	4.000	7.000	6.000	23.000	1.000	2.0377	0.7358	0.2264	0.3962	0.3396	1.3019	0.0566

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.0380
predicted_ER	1.3590
predicted_ERA	2.0377
predicted_H	2.3770
predicted_HR	0.3400
predicted_IP	6.0000
predicted_SO	7.8110
predicted_WHIP	0.7358

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	2.0380	1.6747	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	1.3590	1.5833	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.0377	2.0377	form_only
predicted_H	5.0000	2.3770	3.2950	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.3400	0.2210	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.2000	6.0000	5.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	4.0000	7.8110	6.4771	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.7358	0.7358	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	3
Season rows before report date	3
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	3
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.2
H	5
R	2
ER	2
BB	1
SO	4
HR	0
BF	21
Pitches	90

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	25
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.04
Pitching_Flyouts	4
Pitching_Groundouts	5
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	7.0
Pitching_Pitches	83
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	8
Pitching_Strikes	59
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_BOS@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	801139
playerID	801139
playerName	Payton Tolle
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	BOS
teamID	4

Zack Kelly (677161) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 13

All-history rows before 20260509: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.385	0.000	-0.385	0.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.908	1.000	0.292	0.200
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.923	2.000	-0.923	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	1.000	4.000	5.000	6.000	0.000	1.9286	1.9286	0.2143	0.8571	1.0714	1.2857	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	11.000	4.000	9.000	6.000	11.000	1.000	3.2727	1.3636	0.3636	0.8182	0.5454	1.0000	0.0909
season	0.20	13	13.200	5.000	10.000	6.000	12.000	1.000	3.2927	1.1707	0.3659	0.7317	0.4390	0.8780	0.0732

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.7610
predicted_ER	0.2970
predicted_ERA	2.6719
predicted_H	0.8180
predicted_HR	0.0460
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1040
predicted_WHIP	1.5793

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.7610	0.8447	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2970	0.1930	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.6719	2.6719	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8180	0.5317	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0460	0.0299	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.0000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.1040	0.7176	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5793	1.5793	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.29
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	25
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_BOS@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	677161
playerID	677161
playerName	Zack Kelly
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BOS
teamID	4

Aroldis Chapman (547973) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 13

All-history rows before 20260509: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.938	1.000	0.162	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.231	2.000	-0.231	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	8.000	0.0000	0.4000	0.0000	0.4000	0.0000	1.6000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	1.000	7.000	2.000	14.000	0.9310	0.9310	0.1035	0.7241	0.2069	1.4483
season	0.20	13	12.200	1.000	7.000	3.000	16.000	0.7105	0.7895	0.0790	0.5526	0.2368	1.2632

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1200
predicted_ER	0.0520
predicted_ERA	0.4679
predicted_H	0.5440
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.4800
predicted_WHIP	0.6638

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.1200	0.7780	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.0520	0.0338	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.4679	0.4679	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.5440	0.3536	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.0000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.4800	1.3120	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.6638	0.6638	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	2
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	29

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.71
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	547973
playerID	547973
playerName	Aroldis Chapman
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BOS
teamID	4

Greg Weissert (669711) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 17

All-history rows before 20260509: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.529	1.000	-0.529	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.712	0.000	0.288	1.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.059	0.000	-1.059	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	3.000	8.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	5.4000	1.6000	0.6000	1.6000	0.0000	0.6000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	3.000	11.000	2.000	8.000	1.000	2.8929	1.3929	0.3214	1.1786	0.2143	0.8571	0.1071
season	0.20	16	14.200	8.000	17.000	4.000	18.000	4.000	4.9091	1.4318	0.5454	1.1591	0.2727	1.2273	0.2727

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1300
predicted_ER	0.4920
predicted_ERA	4.4243
predicted_H	1.3640
predicted_HR	0.1820
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8150
predicted_WHIP	1.4939

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.1300	0.4345	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4920	0.3198	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.4243	4.4243	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.3640	1.2366	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1820	0.1183	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.8150	0.5297	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4939	1.4939	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	5.52
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	6
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	669711
playerID	669711
playerName	Greg Weissert
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BOS
teamID	4

Garrett Whitlock (676477) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 15

All-history rows before 20260509: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.400	0.000	1.600	2.000
predicted_IP	0.100	0.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.007	1.000	-0.907	-0.900
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.267	2.000	-1.267	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 0.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	3.000	6.000	1.000	6.000	1.000	5.0625	1.3125	0.5625	1.1250	0.1875	1.1250	0.1875
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	5.000	10.000	2.000	12.000	2.000	4.3548	1.1613	0.4839	0.9677	0.1935	1.1613	0.1935
season	0.20	15	15.100	6.000	13.000	6.000	19.000	2.000	3.5217	1.2391	0.3913	0.8478	0.3913	1.2391	0.1304

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2300
predicted_ER	0.5010
predicted_ERA	4.5066
predicted_H	1.0150
predicted_HR	0.1780
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1610
predicted_WHIP	1.2449

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2300	0.1495	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.5010	1.0256	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.5066	4.5066	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	1.0150	2.0597	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.1780	0.4657	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	1.0000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.1610	0.7547	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2449	1.2449	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.1
H	4
R	2
ER	2
BB	0
SO	0
HR	1
BF	7
Pitches	23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.52
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	10
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	676477
playerID	676477
playerName	Garrett Whitlock
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BOS
teamID	4

20260509_WAS@MIA

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "confidence": 0.64, "home_win_probability": 0.36, "away_win_probability": 0.64, "predicted_score_text": "WAS 4 - 3 MIA", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to final winner probability with starter-quality caps.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 2, "predicted_score_text": "WAS 5 - 2 MIA", "confidence": 0.64, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score", "final_prediction_synced": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 2, "score_text": "WAS 5 - 2 MIA", "winner": "WAS"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "WAS 4 - 3 MIA", "winner": "WAS"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": -1, "home_run_delta": 1, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"}}

Away Team: WAS

Luis García Jr. (671277) · BATTER · 1B · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 27

All-history rows before 20260509: 27

System season_avg: 0.2290

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2292

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_3B	0.037	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.037	0.000	-0.037	0.000
predicted_AB	3.710	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.556	2.000	1.444	3.000
predicted_AVG	0.186	0.200	0.200	Hitting_AVG	0.229	0.000	-0.029	0.200
predicted_BB	0.148	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.148	0.000	-0.148	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.690	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.815	0.000	0.185	1.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.037	0.000	-0.037	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.192	0.200	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.257	0.000	-0.057	0.200
predicted_R	0.444	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.444	0.000	0.556	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.270	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.593	0.000	0.407	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.074	0.000	-0.074	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.264	0.200	0.200	Hitting_SLG	0.344	0.000	-0.144	0.200
predicted_SO	0.667	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.667	1.000	1.333	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.222	-
predicted_3B	0.037	-
predicted_AB	3.710	-
predicted_AVG	0.186	-
predicted_BB	0.148	-
predicted_H	0.690	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.192	-
predicted_R	0.444	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.264	-
predicted_SO	0.667	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.234	0.012
predicted_3B	0.018	-0.019
predicted_AB	3.610	-0.100
predicted_AVG	0.186	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.071	-0.077
predicted_H	0.671	-0.019
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.008	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.192	-0.000
predicted_R	0.363	-0.081
predicted_RBI	0.264	-0.006
predicted_SLG	0.264	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.852	0.185

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.181 HR/AB=0.002

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	6.000	0.1111	0.1111	0.1667	0.1111	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	9.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	4.000	0.000	8.000	0.2571	0.2571	0.3429	0.2571	0.0000	0.1143	0.0000	0.2286
season	0.20	27	-	96.000	22.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	16.000	12.000	4.000	18.000	0.2292	0.2574	0.3438	0.2292	0.0104	0.1667	0.0417	0.1875

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2400
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.5560
predicted_AVG	0.1858
predicted_BB	0.0300
predicted_H	0.6610
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0070
predicted_OBP	0.1915
predicted_R	0.3200
predicted_RBI	0.2610
predicted_SLG	0.2638
predicted_SO	0.9510

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2220	0.2400	0.2337	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0370	0.0070	0.0175	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7100	3.5560	3.6099	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1860	0.1858	0.1859	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1480	0.0300	0.0713	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6900	0.6610	0.6712	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0070	0.0080	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1920	0.1915	0.1917	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4440	0.3200	0.3634	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.2610	0.2641	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2640	0.2638	0.2639	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6670	0.9510	0.8516	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.229

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260503_MIL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	671277
playerID	671277
playerName	Luis García Jr.
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	WAS
teamID	30

James Wood (695578) · BATTER · RF · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 39

All-history rows before 20260509: 39

System season_avg: 0.2350

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2349

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.231	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.231	0.000	-0.231	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.180	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.821	5.000	1.179	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.215	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.235	0.000	-0.235	0.000
predicted_BB	0.872	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.872	0.000	-0.872	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_H	0.900	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.897	0.000	-0.897	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.256	0.000	-0.256	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.331	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.384	0.000	-0.384	0.000
predicted_R	0.846	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.846	0.000	-0.846	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.680	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.692	0.000	-0.692	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.179	0.000	-0.179	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.343	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.497	0.000	-0.497	0.000
predicted_SO	1.538	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.538	2.000	-0.538	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.231	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.180	-
predicted_AVG	0.215	-
predicted_BB	0.872	-
predicted_H	0.900	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.331	-
predicted_R	0.846	-
predicted_RBI	0.680	-
predicted_SLG	0.343	-
predicted_SO	1.538	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.296	0.065
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.936	-0.244
predicted_AVG	0.215	0.000
predicted_BB	0.730	-0.142
predicted_H	0.847	-0.053
predicted_HBP	0.010	-
predicted_HR	0.054	-0.006
predicted_OBP	0.331	0.000
predicted_R	0.718	-0.128
predicted_RBI	0.640	-0.040
predicted_SLG	0.343	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.512	-0.026

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.18), rates preserved: AVG=0.203 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 4.180

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	3.000	7.000	0.2105	0.3182	0.3158	0.2105	0.0000	0.1579	0.1579	0.3684
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	8.000	3.000	0.000	6.000	6.000	6.000	16.000	0.2105	0.3182	0.2895	0.2105	0.0000	0.1579	0.1579	0.4210
season	0.20	39	-	149.000	35.000	9.000	10.000	27.000	33.000	34.000	60.000	0.2349	0.3838	0.4966	0.2349	0.0671	0.1812	0.2282	0.4027

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3310
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.8040
predicted_AVG	0.2154
predicted_BB	0.6540
predicted_H	0.8190
predicted_HBP	0.0100
predicted_HR	0.0510
predicted_OBP	0.3313
predicted_R	0.6490
predicted_RBI	0.6180
predicted_SLG	0.3428
predicted_SO	1.4980

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2310	0.3310	0.2960	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1800	3.8040	3.9356	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2150	0.2154	0.2153	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.8720	0.6540	0.7303	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9000	0.8190	0.8474	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0100	0.0100	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0510	0.0541	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3310	0.3313	0.3312	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8460	0.6490	0.7179	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6800	0.6180	0.6397	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3430	0.3428	0.3429	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.5380	1.4980	1.5120	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.235

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260508_WAS@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	695578
playerID	695578
playerName	James Wood
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	WAS
teamID	30

Brady House (691781) · BATTER · 3B · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 30

All-history rows before 20260509: 30

System season_avg: 0.2260

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2258

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	0.833	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.270	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	4.133	4.000	-1.133	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.246	0.667	0.667	Hitting_AVG	0.226	0.250	0.441	0.417
predicted_BB	0.333	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.050	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.933	1.000	1.067	1.000
predicted_HR	0.260	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.323	0.800	0.800	Hitting_OBP	0.284	0.250	0.516	0.550
predicted_R	0.467	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.467	0.000	0.533	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.950	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.567	0.000	0.433	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.473	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SLG	0.387	0.250	0.613	0.750
predicted_SO	1.267	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.267	1.000	-1.267	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.270	-
predicted_AVG	0.246	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	1.050	-
predicted_HR	0.260	-
predicted_OBP	0.323	-
predicted_R	0.467	-
predicted_RBI	0.950	-
predicted_SLG	0.473	-
predicted_SO	1.267	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.162	-0.005
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.927	-0.343
predicted_AVG	0.246	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.392	0.059
predicted_H	0.966	-0.085
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.240	-0.020
predicted_OBP	0.323	-0.000
predicted_R	0.455	-0.012
predicted_RBI	0.873	-0.077
predicted_SLG	0.473	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.005	-0.262

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.27), rates preserved: AVG=0.226 HR/AB=0.056

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 4.270

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	0.2778	0.3500	0.5000	0.2778	0.0556	0.2222	0.1111	0.1667
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	8.000	1.000	3.000	10.000	5.000	5.000	10.000	0.2162	0.3095	0.4865	0.2162	0.0811	0.2703	0.1351	0.2703
season	0.20	30	-	124.000	28.000	5.000	5.000	17.000	14.000	10.000	38.000	0.2258	0.2836	0.3871	0.2258	0.0403	0.1371	0.0806	0.3065

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1590
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7420
predicted_AVG	0.2458
predicted_BB	0.4240
predicted_H	0.9200
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.2300
predicted_OBP	0.3225
predicted_R	0.4490
predicted_RBI	0.8310
predicted_SLG	0.4727
predicted_SO	0.8640

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.1590	0.1618	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.2700	3.7420	3.9268	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2460	0.2458	0.2459	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.4240	0.3921	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0500	0.9200	0.9655	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2600	0.2300	0.2405	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3230	0.3225	0.3227	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4670	0.4490	0.4553	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.9500	0.8310	0.8726	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4730	0.4727	0.4728	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2670	0.8640	1.0050	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	3
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.226

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260508_WAS@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	691781
playerID	691781
playerName	Brady House
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	WAS
teamID	30

CJ Abrams (682928) · BATTER · SS · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 37

All-history rows before 20260509: 37

System season_avg: 0.2930

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2932

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.162	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.162	0.000	-0.162	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.660	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.595	3.000	1.405	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.317	0.200	0.200	Hitting_AVG	0.293	0.333	-0.093	-0.133
predicted_BB	0.486	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.486	1.000	-0.486	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.054	0.000	-0.054	0.000
predicted_H	1.160	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.054	1.000	-0.054	0.000
predicted_HR	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.243	0.000	-0.243	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.379	0.200	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.396	0.500	-0.196	-0.300
predicted_R	0.595	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.595	1.000	-0.595	-1.000
predicted_RBI	1.210	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.919	1.000	-0.919	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.189	0.000	-0.189	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.564	0.200	0.200	Hitting_SLG	0.541	0.333	-0.341	-0.133
predicted_SO	0.757	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.757	1.000	0.243	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.162	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.660	-
predicted_AVG	0.317	-
predicted_BB	0.486	-
predicted_H	1.160	-
predicted_HR	0.200	-
predicted_OBP	0.379	-
predicted_R	0.595	-
predicted_RBI	1.210	-
predicted_SLG	0.564	-
predicted_SO	0.757	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.261	0.099
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.760	0.100
predicted_AVG	0.317	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.410	-0.076
predicted_H	1.191	0.031
predicted_HBP	0.034	-
predicted_HR	0.206	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.379	0.000
predicted_R	0.733	0.138
predicted_RBI	1.246	0.036
predicted_SLG	0.564	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.859	0.102

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.76), rates preserved: AVG=0.317 HR/AB=0.055

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, BvP AVG=0.400)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	7.000	5.000	1.000	5.000	0.3000	0.3333	0.5500	0.3000	0.0500	0.3500	0.0500	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	13.000	3.000	2.000	13.000	7.000	5.000	9.000	0.3514	0.4286	0.5946	0.3513	0.0541	0.3513	0.1351	0.2432
season	0.20	37	-	133.000	39.000	6.000	9.000	34.000	22.000	18.000	28.000	0.2932	0.3962	0.5414	0.2932	0.0677	0.2556	0.1353	0.2105

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3140
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.8140
predicted_AVG	0.3166
predicted_BB	0.3690
predicted_H	1.2080
predicted_HBP	0.0340
predicted_HR	0.2100
predicted_OBP	0.3792
predicted_R	0.8080
predicted_RBI	1.2650
predicted_SLG	0.5639
predicted_SO	0.9140

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1620	0.3140	0.2608	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6600	3.8140	3.7601	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3170	0.3166	0.3167	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4860	0.3690	0.4099	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1600	1.2080	1.1912	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0340	0.0340	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2000	0.2100	0.2065	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3790	0.3792	0.3791	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5950	0.8080	0.7334	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	1.2100	1.2650	1.2457	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5640	0.5639	0.5639	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7570	0.9140	0.8591	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.293

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260508_WAS@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	682928
playerID	682928
playerName	CJ Abrams
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	WAS
teamID	30

Jacob Young (696285) · BATTER · CF · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 33

All-history rows before 20260509: 33

System season_avg: 0.2320

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2320

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.121	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.121	0.000	0.879	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.788	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.788	3.000	0.212	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.217	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.232	0.333	0.018	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.182	1.000	-0.182	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_H	0.780	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.879	1.000	0.121	0.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.091	1.000	-0.091	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.281	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.278	0.500	-0.028	-0.250
predicted_R	0.485	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.485	1.000	-0.485	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.430	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.485	2.000	-0.485	-2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.337	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.336	1.333	0.164	-0.833
predicted_SO	0.758	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.758	0.000	1.242	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.121	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.788	-
predicted_AVG	0.217	-
predicted_BB	0.182	-
predicted_H	0.780	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.281	-
predicted_R	0.485	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.337	-
predicted_SO	0.758	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.058	-0.063
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.772	-0.016
predicted_AVG	0.217	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.191	0.009
predicted_H	0.803	0.023
predicted_HBP	0.137	-
predicted_HR	0.142	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.281	-0.000
predicted_R	0.660	0.175
predicted_RBI	0.445	0.015
predicted_SLG	0.337	0.000
predicted_SO	0.826	0.068

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.212 HR/AB=0.037

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	1.000	4.000	0.2105	0.2857	0.3684	0.2105	0.0526	0.1053	0.0526	0.2105
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	8.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	6.000	2.000	10.000	0.2162	0.2750	0.2973	0.2162	0.0270	0.1351	0.0541	0.2703
season	0.20	33	-	125.000	29.000	4.000	3.000	16.000	16.000	6.000	25.000	0.2320	0.2782	0.3360	0.2320	0.0240	0.1280	0.0480	0.2000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0240
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7630
predicted_AVG	0.2168
predicted_BB	0.1960
predicted_H	0.8160
predicted_HBP	0.1370
predicted_HR	0.1430
predicted_OBP	0.2805
predicted_R	0.7550
predicted_RBI	0.4530
predicted_SLG	0.3370
predicted_SO	0.8630

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1210	0.0240	0.0580	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7880	3.7630	3.7717	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2170	0.2168	0.2169	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1820	0.1960	0.1911	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7800	0.8160	0.8034	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1370	0.1370	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1430	0.1419	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2810	0.2805	0.2807	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4850	0.7550	0.6605	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.4530	0.4450	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3370	0.3370	0.3370	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7580	0.8630	0.8263	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.232

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260508_WAS@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	696285
playerID	696285
playerName	Jacob Young
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	WAS
teamID	30

Drew Millas (686452) · BATTER · C · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 18

All-history rows before 20260509: 18

System season_avg: 0.1790

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1786

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	1.000	0.833	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.111	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.111	4.000	0.889	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.211	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.179	0.500	0.321	0.000
predicted_BB	0.278	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.278	0.000	-0.278	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.580	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.556	2.000	1.444	0.000
predicted_HR	0.130	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.056	1.000	0.944	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.257	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.246	0.500	0.254	0.000
predicted_R	0.389	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.389	2.000	0.611	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.280	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.222	2.000	0.778	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.429	1.500	1.500	Hitting_SLG	0.286	1.500	1.214	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.111	-
predicted_AVG	0.211	-
predicted_BB	0.278	-
predicted_H	0.580	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.257	-
predicted_R	0.389	-
predicted_RBI	0.280	-
predicted_SLG	0.429	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.207	0.040
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.017	-0.094
predicted_AVG	0.211	0.000
predicted_BB	0.216	-0.062
predicted_H	0.611	0.031
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.136	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.257	-0.000
predicted_R	0.439	0.050
predicted_RBI	0.293	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.429	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.023	0.023

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.11), rates preserved: AVG=0.196 HR/AB=0.044

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	0.2143	0.2667	0.5000	0.2143	0.0714	0.1429	0.0714	0.3571
last_10	0.35	10	-	31.000	7.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	1.000	11.000	0.2258	0.2500	0.4194	0.2258	0.0323	0.0645	0.0323	0.3548
season	0.20	18	-	56.000	10.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	7.000	5.000	18.000	0.1786	0.2459	0.2857	0.1786	0.0179	0.0714	0.0893	0.3214

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2280
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.9670
predicted_AVG	0.2112
predicted_BB	0.1820
predicted_H	0.6270
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1390
predicted_OBP	0.2567
predicted_R	0.4660
predicted_RBI	0.3000
predicted_SLG	0.4289
predicted_SO	1.0360

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.2280	0.2067	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1110	2.9670	3.0174	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2110	0.2112	0.2111	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2780	0.1820	0.2156	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5800	0.6270	0.6106	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1390	0.1359	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2570	0.2567	0.2568	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3890	0.4660	0.4390	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2800	0.3000	0.2930	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4290	0.4289	0.4289	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0360	1.0234	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.179

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	6
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260506_MIN@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	686452
playerID	686452
playerName	Drew Millas
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	WAS
teamID	30

Daylen Lile (695734) · BATTER · LF · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 38

All-history rows before 20260509: 38

System season_avg: 0.2450

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2450

Diff (system - data): -0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.237	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.237	0.000	-0.237	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.974	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.974	4.000	0.026	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.245	0.250	-0.245	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.421	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.421	0.000	-0.421	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.079	0.000	-0.079	0.000
predicted_H	0.710	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.974	1.000	-0.974	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.079	0.000	-0.079	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.307	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.321	0.250	-0.321	-0.250
predicted_R	0.632	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.632	0.000	-0.632	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.368	0.000	-0.368	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.253	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.364	0.250	-0.364	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.816	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.816	0.000	-0.816	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.237	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.974	-
predicted_AVG	0.182	-
predicted_BB	0.421	-
predicted_H	0.710	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.307	-
predicted_R	0.632	-
predicted_RBI	0.070	-
predicted_SLG	0.253	-
predicted_SO	0.816	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.218	-0.019
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.663	-0.311
predicted_AVG	0.182	0.000
predicted_BB	0.476	0.055
predicted_H	0.662	-0.048
predicted_HBP	0.137	-
predicted_HR	0.016	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.307	0.000
predicted_R	0.681	0.049
predicted_RBI	0.067	-0.003
predicted_SLG	0.253	0.000
predicted_SO	0.899	0.083

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.97), rates preserved: AVG=0.167 HR/AB=0.004

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.974

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	3.000	4.000	0.1875	0.3500	0.2500	0.1875	0.0000	0.0000	0.1875	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	6.000	4.000	12.000	0.1389	0.2439	0.1944	0.1389	0.0000	0.0000	0.1111	0.3333
season	0.20	38	-	151.000	37.000	9.000	3.000	14.000	24.000	16.000	31.000	0.2450	0.3214	0.3642	0.2450	0.0199	0.0927	0.1060	0.2053

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2080
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.4950
predicted_AVG	0.1820
predicted_BB	0.5050
predicted_H	0.6360
predicted_HBP	0.1370
predicted_HR	0.0140
predicted_OBP	0.3071
predicted_R	0.7080
predicted_RBI	0.0650
predicted_SLG	0.2534
predicted_SO	0.9440

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2370	0.2080	0.2181	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9740	3.4950	3.6627	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1820	0.1820	0.1820	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4210	0.5050	0.4756	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7100	0.6360	0.6619	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1370	0.1370	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0140	0.0161	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3070	0.3071	0.3071	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6320	0.7080	0.6814	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0700	0.0650	0.0668	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2530	0.2534	0.2533	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8160	0.9440	0.8992	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.245

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260508_WAS@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	695734
playerID	695734
playerName	Daylen Lile
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	WAS
teamID	30

Jose Fernandez (699912) · BATTER · DH · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 0

All-history rows before 20260509: 0

System season_avg: 0.3020

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): -

Diff (system - data): -

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.115	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	-	-	-	-
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	-	-	-	-
predicted_AB	3.692	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	-	-	-	-
predicted_AVG	0.220	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	-	-	-	-
predicted_BB	0.192	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	-	-	-	-
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	-	-	-	-
predicted_H	0.750	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	-	-	-	-
predicted_HR	0.060	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	-	-	-	-
predicted_OBP	0.327	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	-	-	-	-
predicted_R	0.731	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	-	-	-	-
predicted_RBI	0.190	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	-	-	-	-
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	-	-	-	-
predicted_SLG	0.286	1.250	1.250	Hitting_SLG	-	-	-	-
predicted_SO	0.923	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	-	-	-	-

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.115	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.692	-
predicted_AVG	0.220	-
predicted_BB	0.192	-
predicted_H	0.750	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.327	-
predicted_R	0.731	-
predicted_RBI	0.190	-
predicted_SLG	0.286	-
predicted_SO	0.923	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.077	-0.038
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.481	-0.211
predicted_AVG	0.220	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.326	0.134
predicted_H	0.744	-0.006
predicted_HBP	0.136	-
predicted_HR	0.057	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.327	0.000
predicted_R	0.584	-0.147
predicted_RBI	0.189	-0.001
predicted_SLG	0.286	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.982	0.059

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.69), rates preserved: AVG=0.201 HR/AB=0.016

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 26

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	0.1250	0.2632	0.1250	0.1250	0.0000	0.0000	0.1250	0.3750
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	10.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	8.000	5.000	8.000	0.2941	0.4000	0.4118	0.2941	0.0294	0.0882	0.1471	0.2353
season	0.20	26	-	96.000	29.000	3.000	3.000	12.000	19.000	5.000	24.000	0.3021	0.3431	0.4271	0.3021	0.0312	0.1250	0.0521	0.2500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0560
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.3680
predicted_AVG	0.2196
predicted_BB	0.3980
predicted_H	0.7400
predicted_HBP	0.1360
predicted_HR	0.0560
predicted_OBP	0.3271
predicted_R	0.5050
predicted_RBI	0.1880
predicted_SLG	0.2858
predicted_SO	1.0140

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1150	0.0560	0.0766	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6920	3.3680	3.4814	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2200	0.2196	0.2197	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1920	0.3980	0.3259	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7500	0.7400	0.7435	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1360	0.1360	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0560	0.0574	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3270	0.3271	0.3271	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7310	0.5050	0.5841	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1900	0.1880	0.1887	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2860	0.2858	0.2859	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9230	1.0140	0.9822	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	0
Season rows before report date	0
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	26
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.302

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

No historical data found for this player before report date.

Nasim Nuñez (683083) · BATTER · 2B · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 33

All-history rows before 20260509: 33

System season_avg: 0.2200

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2202

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_3B	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_AB	3.303	2.000	2.000	Hitting_AB	3.303	3.000	-1.303	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.273	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.220	0.333	-0.220	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.485	2.000	2.000	Hitting_BB	0.485	1.000	1.515	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.061	0.000	-0.061	0.000
predicted_H	0.760	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.727	1.000	-0.727	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.357	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.323	0.500	0.177	0.000
predicted_R	0.455	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.455	0.000	-0.455	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.570	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.424	0.000	-0.424	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.485	2.000	-0.485	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.367	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.248	0.333	-0.248	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.727	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.727	0.000	0.273	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.030	-
predicted_3B	0.030	-
predicted_AB	3.303	-
predicted_AVG	0.273	-
predicted_BB	0.485	-
predicted_H	0.760	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.357	-
predicted_R	0.455	-
predicted_RBI	0.570	-
predicted_SLG	0.367	-
predicted_SO	0.727	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.014	-0.016
predicted_3B	0.098	0.068
predicted_AB	3.042	-0.261
predicted_AVG	0.273	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.464	-0.021
predicted_H	0.780	0.020
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.357	0.000
predicted_R	0.366	-0.089
predicted_RBI	0.584	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.367	0.000
predicted_SO	0.553	-0.174

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.30), rates preserved: AVG=0.236 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-1.000
BB	2.000	2.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	0.2857	0.3529	0.4286	0.2857	0.2857	0.1429	0.1429
last_10	0.35	10	-	28.000	8.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	5.000	4.000	0.2857	0.3824	0.3571	0.2857	0.1429	0.1786	0.1429
season	0.20	33	-	109.000	24.000	1.000	1.000	14.000	15.000	16.000	24.000	0.2202	0.3228	0.2477	0.2202	0.1284	0.1468	0.2202

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0050
predicted_3B	0.1350
predicted_AB	2.9010
predicted_AVG	0.2726
predicted_BB	0.4530
predicted_H	0.7910
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.3572
predicted_R	0.3180
predicted_RBI	0.5920
predicted_SLG	0.3674
predicted_SO	0.4590

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0300	0.0050	0.0137	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0300	0.1350	0.0983	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3030	2.9010	3.0417	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2730	0.2726	0.2727	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4850	0.4530	0.4642	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7600	0.7910	0.7801	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3570	0.3572	0.3571	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4550	0.3180	0.3659	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5700	0.5920	0.5843	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3670	0.3674	0.3673	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7270	0.4590	0.5528	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.22

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	2
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260508_WAS@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	683083
playerID	683083
playerName	Nasim Nuñez
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	WAS
teamID	30

Richard Lovelady (663992) · PITCHER · Starter · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 8

All-history rows before 20260509: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.125	0.000	2.875	3.000
predicted_IP	4.100	4.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.725	0.200	3.375	3.900
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	3.000	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 4.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.200	0.000	4.000	4.000	4.000	0.000	0.0000	2.1818	0.0000	1.0909	1.0909	1.0909	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	1.000	7.000	7.000	9.000	0.000	0.9000	1.4000	0.1000	0.7000	0.7000	0.9000	0.0000
season	0.20	14	15.000	4.000	15.000	11.000	14.000	1.000	2.4000	1.7333	0.2667	1.0000	0.7333	0.9333	0.0667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.7500
predicted_ER	0.0750
predicted_ERA	0.7950
predicted_H	0.7960
predicted_HR	0.0110
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8440
predicted_WHIP	1.8185

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.7500	0.8375	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	0.0750	1.0987	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.7950	0.7950	form_only
predicted_H	5.0000	0.7960	2.2674	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	2.0000	0.0110	0.7071	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.1000	1.0000	2.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	4.0000	0.8440	1.9486	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.8185	1.8185	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.1
H	5
R	3
ER	3
BB	1
SO	4
HR	2
BF	21
Pitches	77

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.40
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_MIN@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	663992
playerID	663992
playerName	Richard Lovelady
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	WAS
teamID	30

Gus Varland (681402) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 15

All-history rows before 20260509: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.807	1.100	0.393	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.067	2.000	-0.067	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	1.000	4.000	0.000	5.000	0.000	1.6875	0.7500	0.1875	0.7500	0.0000	0.9375	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	2.000	11.000	1.000	10.000	0.000	1.8621	1.2414	0.2069	1.1379	0.1035	1.0345	0.0000
season	0.20	15	14.200	5.000	16.000	3.000	16.000	1.000	3.0682	1.2955	0.3409	1.0909	0.2046	1.0909	0.0682

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.0770
predicted_ER	0.2250
predicted_ERA	2.0248
predicted_H	0.9540
predicted_HR	0.0140
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0020
predicted_WHIP	1.0311

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.0770	0.7500	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2250	0.1463	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.0248	2.0248	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9540	0.6201	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0140	0.0091	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.0000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0020	1.0013	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0311	1.0311	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	2
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	27

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.07
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_MIN@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	681402
playerID	681402
playerName	Gus Varland
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	WAS
teamID	30

Brad Lord (695418) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 12

All-history rows before 20260509: 12

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.833	0.000	-0.833	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.917	1.200	-0.917	-0.200
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.500	2.000	-0.500	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	9.200	2.000	9.000	2.000	6.000	0.000	1.8621	1.1379	0.2069	0.9310	0.2069	0.6207	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	20.000	9.000	19.000	5.000	14.000	3.000	4.0500	1.2000	0.4500	0.9500	0.2500	0.7000	0.1500
season	0.20	12	25.100	10.000	24.000	6.000	18.000	3.000	3.5526	1.1842	0.3947	0.9474	0.2368	0.7105	0.1184

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4560
predicted_ER	0.6590
predicted_ERA	2.9660
predicted_H	1.8820
predicted_HR	0.1520
predicted_IP	2.0000
predicted_SO	1.3330
predicted_WHIP	1.1689

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4560	0.2964	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.6590	0.4284	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.9660	2.9660	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.8820	1.2233	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1520	0.0988	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	2.0000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.3330	1.2165	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1689	1.1689	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	12

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.55
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.2
Pitching_Pitches	31
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	23
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_WAS@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	695418
playerID	695418
playerName	Brad Lord
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	WAS
teamID	30

Mitchell Parker (680730) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 7

All-history rows before 20260509: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.857	0.000	-0.857	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	2.186	2.200	-1.186	-1.200
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_SO	2.000	2.000	1.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	11.000	3.000	4.000	4.000	7.000	0.000	2.4545	0.7273	0.2727	0.3636	0.3636	0.6364	0.0000
last_10	0.35	7	16.000	6.000	11.000	4.000	14.000	1.000	3.3750	0.9375	0.3750	0.6875	0.2500	0.8750	0.0625
season	0.20	7	16.000	6.000	11.000	4.000	14.000	1.000	3.3750	0.9375	0.3750	0.6875	0.2500	0.8750	0.0625

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.7030
predicted_ER	0.7680
predicted_ERA	2.9608
predicted_H	1.2640
predicted_HR	0.0800
predicted_IP	2.1000
predicted_SO	1.7910
predicted_WHIP	0.8429

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.7030	0.4569	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.7680	0.4992	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.9608	2.9608	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.2640	0.8216	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0800	0.0520	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	2.1000	2.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	1.7910	2.2142	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.8429	0.8429	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	3
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	8
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.38
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.2
Pitching_Pitches	27
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	20
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_MIN@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	680730
playerID	680730
playerName	Mitchell Parker
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	WAS
teamID	30

PJ Poulin (676571) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 19

All-history rows before 20260509: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.368	0.000	-0.368	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.811	0.100	0.189	0.900
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.737	0.000	-0.737	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	6.000	0.000	0.0000	1.0000	0.0000	0.5000	0.5000	1.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	3.000	9.000	4.000	8.000	1.000	2.7931	1.3448	0.3103	0.9310	0.4138	0.8276	0.1035
season	0.20	19	18.200	7.000	15.000	11.000	14.000	3.000	3.3750	1.3929	0.3750	0.8036	0.5893	0.7500	0.1607

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5610
predicted_ER	0.2110
predicted_ERA	1.6526
predicted_H	0.8180
predicted_HR	0.0790
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0230
predicted_WHIP	1.1993

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5610	0.3647	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2110	0.1371	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.6526	1.6526	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8180	0.5317	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0790	0.0513	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.0230	0.6649	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1993	1.1993	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	12

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	2
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.38
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_WAS@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	676571
playerID	676571
playerName	PJ Poulin
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	WAS
teamID	30

Home Team: MIA

Liam Hicks (689414) · BATTER · DH · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 29

All-history rows before 20260509: 29

System season_avg: 0.3330

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3333

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.103	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.103	0.000	-0.103	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.780	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.621	4.000	0.379	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.346	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.333	0.250	0.167	0.250
predicted_BB	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.310	0.000	-0.310	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.310	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	1.207	1.000	0.793	1.000
predicted_HR	0.440	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.310	1.000	0.690	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.406	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.383	0.250	0.117	0.250
predicted_R	0.655	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.655	1.000	0.345	0.000
predicted_RBI	1.200	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	1.172	2.000	-0.172	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.034	0.000	-0.034	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.699	1.250	1.250	Hitting_SLG	0.619	1.000	0.631	0.250
predicted_SO	0.345	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.345	1.000	-0.345	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.103	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.780	-
predicted_AVG	0.346	-
predicted_BB	0.310	-
predicted_H	1.310	-
predicted_HR	0.440	-
predicted_OBP	0.406	-
predicted_R	0.655	-
predicted_RBI	1.200	-
predicted_SLG	0.699	-
predicted_SO	0.345	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.050	-0.053
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.679	-0.101
predicted_AVG	0.346	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.382	0.072
predicted_H	1.273	-0.037
predicted_HBP	0.014	-
predicted_HR	0.427	-0.013
predicted_OBP	0.406	0.000
predicted_R	0.572	-0.083
predicted_RBI	1.167	-0.033
predicted_SLG	0.699	0.000
predicted_SO	0.559	0.214

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.78), rates preserved: AVG=0.337 HR/AB=0.113

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	7.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	0.3684	0.4286	0.6842	0.3684	0.1053	0.2632	0.1053	0.2105
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	11.000	0.000	5.000	13.000	6.000	5.000	7.000	0.3235	0.3902	0.7647	0.3235	0.1471	0.3824	0.1471	0.2059
season	0.20	29	-	105.000	35.000	3.000	9.000	34.000	19.000	9.000	10.000	0.3333	0.3833	0.6190	0.3333	0.0857	0.3238	0.0857	0.0952

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0210
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.6240
predicted_AVG	0.3457
predicted_BB	0.4200
predicted_H	1.2530
predicted_HBP	0.0140
predicted_HR	0.4200
predicted_OBP	0.4061
predicted_R	0.5270
predicted_RBI	1.1490
predicted_SLG	0.6993
predicted_SO	0.6740

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1030	0.0210	0.0497	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7800	3.6240	3.6786	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3460	0.3457	0.3458	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3100	0.4200	0.3815	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.3100	1.2530	1.2730	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0140	0.0140	form_only
predicted_HR	0.4400	0.4200	0.4270	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4060	0.4061	0.4061	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6550	0.5270	0.5718	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	1.2000	1.1490	1.1668	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6990	0.6993	0.6992	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3450	0.6740	0.5589	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.333

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C-1B
gameID	20260507_BAL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	689414
playerID	689414
playerName	Liam Hicks
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	MIA
teamID	15

Kyle Stowers (669065) · BATTER · LF · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 16

All-history rows before 20260509: 16

System season_avg: 0.2100

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2097

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.188	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.188	0.000	-0.188	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.920	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.875	4.000	0.125	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.203	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.210	0.000	-0.210	0.000
predicted_BB	0.438	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.438	0.000	-0.438	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_H	0.800	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.812	0.000	-0.812	0.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.266	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.300	0.000	-0.300	0.000
predicted_R	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.213	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.258	0.000	-0.258	0.000
predicted_SO	1.188	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.188	3.000	0.812	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.188	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.920	-
predicted_AVG	0.203	-
predicted_BB	0.438	-
predicted_H	0.800	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.266	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.050	-
predicted_SLG	0.213	-
predicted_SO	1.188	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.090	-0.098
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.839	-0.081
predicted_AVG	0.203	0.000
predicted_BB	0.357	-0.081
predicted_H	0.781	-0.019
predicted_HBP	0.012	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.266	-0.000
predicted_R	0.449	-0.051
predicted_RBI	0.047	-0.003
predicted_SLG	0.213	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.282	0.094

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.92), rates preserved: AVG=0.199 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 3.920

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	6.000	0.2222	0.2632	0.2222	0.2222	0.0000	0.0556	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	7.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	16.000	0.1750	0.2500	0.1750	0.1750	0.0250	0.1000	0.4000
season	0.20	16	-	62.000	13.000	3.000	1.000	8.000	7.000	19.000	0.2097	0.3000	0.2581	0.2097	0.0161	0.1129	0.3065

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0370
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7950
predicted_AVG	0.2032
predicted_BB	0.3130
predicted_H	0.7710
predicted_HBP	0.0120
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.2659
predicted_R	0.4210
predicted_RBI	0.0450
predicted_SLG	0.2129
predicted_SO	1.3330

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1880	0.0370	0.0898	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9200	3.7950	3.8388	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2030	0.2032	0.2031	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4380	0.3130	0.3568	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8000	0.7710	0.7812	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0120	0.0120	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2660	0.2659	0.2659	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.4210	0.4486	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0500	0.0450	0.0467	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2130	0.2129	0.2129	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1880	1.3330	1.2822	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260508_WAS@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	669065
playerID	669065
playerName	Kyle Stowers
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	MIA
teamID	15

Connor Norby (681393) · BATTER · 1B · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 34

All-history rows before 20260509: 34

System season_avg: 0.2250

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2252

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.176	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.176	0.000	-0.176	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.265	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.265	3.000	-0.265	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.173	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.225	0.000	0.108	0.333
predicted_BB	0.412	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.412	0.000	0.588	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_H	0.550	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.735	0.000	0.265	1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.088	0.000	0.912	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.306	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.336	0.000	0.164	0.500
predicted_R	0.265	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.265	0.000	0.735	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.240	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	0.353	0.000	1.647	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.211	1.333	1.333	Hitting_SLG	0.360	0.000	0.973	1.333
predicted_SO	1.265	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.265	2.000	-0.265	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.176	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.265	-
predicted_AVG	0.173	-
predicted_BB	0.412	-
predicted_H	0.550	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.306	-
predicted_R	0.265	-
predicted_RBI	0.240	-
predicted_SLG	0.211	-
predicted_SO	1.265	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.106	-0.070
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.150	-0.115
predicted_AVG	0.173	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.428	0.016
predicted_H	0.540	-0.010
predicted_HBP	0.155	-
predicted_HR	0.018	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.306	-0.000
predicted_R	0.291	0.026
predicted_RBI	0.233	-0.007
predicted_SLG	0.211	0.000
predicted_SO	1.608	0.343

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.27), rates preserved: AVG=0.165 HR/AB=0.006

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	10.000	0.1333	0.2778	0.1333	0.1333	0.0000	0.0667	0.1333	0.6667
last_10	0.35	10	-	31.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	18.000	0.1935	0.3243	0.2258	0.1935	0.0000	0.0645	0.1613	0.5806
season	0.20	34	-	111.000	25.000	6.000	3.000	12.000	9.000	14.000	43.000	0.2252	0.3359	0.3604	0.2252	0.0270	0.1081	0.1261	0.3874

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0680
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.0880
predicted_AVG	0.1727
predicted_BB	0.4370
predicted_H	0.5340
predicted_HBP	0.1550
predicted_HR	0.0170
predicted_OBP	0.3057
predicted_R	0.3050
predicted_RBI	0.2290
predicted_SLG	0.2111
predicted_SO	1.7930

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1760	0.0680	0.1058	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2650	3.0880	3.1500	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1730	0.1727	0.1728	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4120	0.4370	0.4283	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5500	0.5340	0.5396	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1550	0.1550	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0170	0.0181	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3060	0.3057	0.3058	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2650	0.3050	0.2910	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2400	0.2290	0.2329	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2110	0.2111	0.2111	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2650	1.7930	1.6082	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.225

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260508_WAS@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	681393
playerID	681393
playerName	Connor Norby
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	MIA
teamID	15

Otto Lopez (672640) · BATTER · SS · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 37

All-history rows before 20260509: 37

System season_avg: 0.3490

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3490

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.243	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.243	1.000	-0.243	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.054	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.054	0.000	-0.054	0.000
predicted_AB	4.200	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.027	4.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.414	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.349	0.750	-0.349	-0.750
predicted_BB	0.162	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.162	0.000	-0.162	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.081	1.000	-0.081	-1.000
predicted_H	1.740	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.405	3.000	-1.405	-3.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.108	0.000	-0.108	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.420	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.380	0.750	-0.380	-0.750
predicted_R	0.676	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.676	1.000	-0.676	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.432	0.000	-0.432	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.135	0.000	-0.135	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.589	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.517	1.000	-0.517	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.757	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.757	0.000	-0.757	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.243	-
predicted_3B	0.054	-
predicted_AB	4.200	-
predicted_AVG	0.414	-
predicted_BB	0.162	-
predicted_H	1.740	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.420	-
predicted_R	0.676	-
predicted_RBI	0.310	-
predicted_SLG	0.589	-
predicted_SO	0.757	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.265	0.022
predicted_3B	0.026	-0.028
predicted_AB	4.223	0.023
predicted_AVG	0.414	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.079	-0.083
predicted_H	1.748	0.008
predicted_HBP	0.011	-
predicted_HR	0.148	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.420	-0.000
predicted_R	0.579	-0.098
predicted_RBI	0.314	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.589	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.602	-0.155

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.22), rates preserved: AVG=0.414 HR/AB=0.035

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	2.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	2.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 4.200

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	9.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	0.4286	0.4286	0.6190	0.4286	0.0476	0.0476	0.0000	0.0476
last_10	0.35	10	-	44.000	19.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	6.000	0.000	8.000	0.4318	0.4318	0.5909	0.4318	0.0227	0.0909	0.0000	0.1818
season	0.20	37	-	149.000	52.000	9.000	2.000	4.000	16.000	25.000	6.000	28.000	0.3490	0.3797	0.5168	0.3490	0.0268	0.1074	0.0403	0.1879

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2770
predicted_3B	0.0110
predicted_AB	4.2350
predicted_AVG	0.4138
predicted_BB	0.0340
predicted_H	1.7530
predicted_HBP	0.0110
predicted_HR	0.1470
predicted_OBP	0.4199
predicted_R	0.5260
predicted_RBI	0.3160
predicted_SLG	0.5887
predicted_SO	0.5190

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2430	0.2770	0.2651	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0540	0.0110	0.0261	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.2000	4.2350	4.2228	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.4140	0.4138	0.4139	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1620	0.0340	0.0788	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.7400	1.7530	1.7485	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0110	0.0110	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1470	0.1480	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4200	0.4199	0.4199	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6760	0.5260	0.5785	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3100	0.3160	0.3139	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5890	0.5887	0.5888	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7570	0.5190	0.6023	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.349

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	1
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.75
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260508_WAS@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	672640
playerID	672640
playerName	Otto Lopez
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	MIA
teamID	15

Xavier Edwards (669364) · BATTER · 2B · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 38

All-history rows before 20260509: 38

System season_avg: 0.3240

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3237

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.184	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.184	0.000	-0.184	0.000
predicted_3B	0.053	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_AB	4.040	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.658	3.000	0.342	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.263	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.324	0.333	-0.324	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.579	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.579	1.000	-0.579	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_H	1.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.184	1.000	-1.184	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.210	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.079	1.000	-0.079	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.377	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.416	0.500	-0.416	-0.500
predicted_R	0.658	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.658	1.000	-0.658	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.460	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.342	1.000	-0.342	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.105	0.000	-0.105	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.444	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.468	1.333	-0.468	-1.333
predicted_SO	0.421	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.421	1.000	1.579	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.184	-
predicted_3B	0.053	-
predicted_AB	4.040	-
predicted_AVG	0.263	-
predicted_BB	0.579	-
predicted_H	1.060	-
predicted_HR	0.210	-
predicted_OBP	0.377	-
predicted_R	0.658	-
predicted_RBI	0.460	-
predicted_SLG	0.444	-
predicted_SO	0.421	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.110	-0.074
predicted_3B	0.025	-0.028
predicted_AB	3.658	-0.382
predicted_AVG	0.263	0.000
predicted_BB	0.613	0.034
predicted_H	0.962	-0.098
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.189	-0.021
predicted_OBP	0.377	0.000
predicted_R	0.545	-0.113
predicted_RBI	0.414	-0.046
predicted_SLG	0.444	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.281	-0.140

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.04), rates preserved: AVG=0.238 HR/AB=0.047

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 4.040

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	0.2353	0.3500	0.4118	0.2353	0.0588	0.1177	0.1765	0.0588
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	9.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	5.000	7.000	1.000	0.2647	0.3902	0.4706	0.2647	0.0588	0.1177	0.2059	0.0294
season	0.20	38	-	139.000	45.000	7.000	2.000	3.000	13.000	25.000	22.000	16.000	0.3237	0.4161	0.4676	0.3237	0.0216	0.0935	0.1583	0.1151

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0700
predicted_3B	0.0100
predicted_AB	3.4520
predicted_AVG	0.2633
predicted_BB	0.6320
predicted_H	0.9090
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1770
predicted_OBP	0.3773
predicted_R	0.4850
predicted_RBI	0.3890
predicted_SLG	0.4435
predicted_SO	0.2060

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1840	0.0700	0.1099	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0530	0.0100	0.0250	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0400	3.4520	3.6578	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2630	0.2633	0.2632	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5790	0.6320	0.6134	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0600	0.9090	0.9618	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2100	0.1770	0.1885	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3770	0.3773	0.3772	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6580	0.4850	0.5455	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4600	0.3890	0.4139	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4440	0.4435	0.4437	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4210	0.2060	0.2812	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.324

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260508_WAS@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	669364
playerID	669364
playerName	Xavier Edwards
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	MIA
teamID	15

Jakob Marsee (805300) · BATTER · CF · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 36

All-history rows before 20260509: 36

System season_avg: 0.1710

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1714

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_3B	0.056	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_AB	3.889	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.889	3.000	-0.889	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.159	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.171	0.000	-0.171	0.000
predicted_BB	0.583	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.583	0.000	0.417	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_H	0.580	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.274	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.291	0.250	-0.041	0.000
predicted_R	0.556	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.556	0.000	-0.556	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.278	0.000	-0.278	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.216	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_SO	1.194	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.194	1.000	0.806	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	-
predicted_3B	0.056	-
predicted_AB	3.889	-
predicted_AVG	0.159	-
predicted_BB	0.583	-
predicted_H	0.580	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.274	-
predicted_R	0.556	-
predicted_RBI	0.290	-
predicted_SLG	0.216	-
predicted_SO	1.194	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.157	0.046
predicted_3B	0.027	-0.029
predicted_AB	3.866	-0.023
predicted_AVG	0.159	0.000
predicted_BB	0.510	-0.073
predicted_H	0.602	0.022
predicted_HBP	0.142	-
predicted_HR	0.007	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.274	0.000
predicted_R	0.393	-0.163
predicted_RBI	0.297	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.216	0.000
predicted_SO	1.333	0.139

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.89), rates preserved: AVG=0.155 HR/AB=0.002

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.889

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	0.1579	0.2727	0.2105	0.1579	0.0000	0.1053	0.1053	0.3158
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	18.000	0.1538	0.2667	0.2051	0.1538	0.0000	0.0513	0.1282	0.4615
season	0.20	36	-	140.000	24.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	9.000	20.000	21.000	43.000	0.1714	0.2909	0.2500	0.1714	0.0071	0.0643	0.1500	0.3071

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1820
predicted_3B	0.0110
predicted_AB	3.8530
predicted_AVG	0.1592
predicted_BB	0.4710
predicted_H	0.6130
predicted_HBP	0.1420
predicted_HR	0.0060
predicted_OBP	0.2742
predicted_R	0.3050
predicted_RBI	0.3010
predicted_SLG	0.2165
predicted_SO	1.4070

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1110	0.1820	0.1572	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0560	0.0110	0.0267	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8890	3.8530	3.8656	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1590	0.1592	0.1591	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5830	0.4710	0.5102	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5800	0.6130	0.6015	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1420	0.1420	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0060	0.0074	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2740	0.2742	0.2741	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5560	0.3050	0.3929	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2900	0.3010	0.2971	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2160	0.2165	0.2163	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1940	1.4070	1.3325	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.171

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260507_BAL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	805300
playerID	805300
playerName	Jakob Marsee
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	MIA
teamID	15

Leo Jiménez (677870) · BATTER · 3B · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 9

All-history rows before 20260509: 9

System season_avg: 0.2000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.500	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	2.222	4.000	1.778	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.179	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.200	0.250	-0.200	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.375	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.444	0.000	-0.444	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.444	1.000	-0.444	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.342	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.385	0.250	-0.385	-0.250
predicted_R	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.179	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.200	0.250	-0.200	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.444	1.000	0.556	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.179	-
predicted_BB	0.375	-
predicted_H	0.350	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.342	-
predicted_R	0.125	-
predicted_RBI	0.000	-
predicted_SLG	0.179	-
predicted_SO	0.500	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.529	0.029
predicted_AVG	0.179	0.000
predicted_BB	0.439	0.064
predicted_H	0.419	0.069
predicted_HBP	0.158	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.342	0.000
predicted_R	0.146	0.021
predicted_RBI	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.179	0.000
predicted_SO	0.586	0.086

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.53), rates preserved: AVG=0.166 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	13.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	0.1538	0.3529	0.1538	0.1538	0.2308	0.3077
last_10	0.35	8	-	20.000	4.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	0.2000	0.3333	0.2000	0.2000	0.1500	0.2000
season	0.20	8	-	20.000	4.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	0.2000	0.3333	0.2000	0.2000	0.1500	0.2000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.5450
predicted_AVG	0.1792
predicted_BB	0.4740
predicted_H	0.4560
predicted_HBP	0.1580
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.3421
predicted_R	0.1580
predicted_RBI	0.0000
predicted_SLG	0.1792
predicted_SO	0.6320

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.5000	2.5450	2.5293	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1790	0.1792	0.1791	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3750	0.4740	0.4393	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3500	0.4560	0.4189	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1580	0.1580	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3420	0.3421	0.3421	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1250	0.1580	0.1464	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1790	0.1792	0.1791	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5000	0.6320	0.5858	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.2

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260508_WAS@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	677870
playerID	677870
playerName	Leo Jiménez
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	MIA
teamID	15

Joe Mack (691788) · BATTER · C · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 4

All-history rows before 20260509: 4

System season_avg: 0.1670

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1667

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	3.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.167	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.167	0.000	0.167	0.333
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.420	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.167	0.333	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.167	0.000	0.167	0.333
predicted_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.210	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.167	0.667	0.667	Hitting_SLG	0.167	0.000	0.500	0.667
predicted_SO	0.750	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.750	1.000	-0.750	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.167	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.420	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.167	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.210	-
predicted_SLG	0.167	-
predicted_SO	0.750	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.167	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.472	0.052
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.167	-0.000
predicted_R	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.236	0.026
predicted_SLG	0.167	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.750	0.000

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.157 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 4

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total RBI	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	4	-	12.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	0.1667	0.1667	0.1667	0.1667	0.0833	0.2500
last_10	0.35	4	-	12.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	0.1667	0.1667	0.1667	0.1667	0.0833	0.2500
season	0.20	4	-	12.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	0.1667	0.1667	0.1667	0.1667	0.0833	0.2500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.0000
predicted_AVG	0.1667
predicted_BB	0.0000
predicted_H	0.5000
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.1667
predicted_R	0.0000
predicted_RBI	0.2500
predicted_SLG	0.1667
predicted_SO	0.7500

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.0000	3.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1670	0.1667	0.1668	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4200	0.5000	0.4720	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1670	0.1667	0.1668	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2100	0.2500	0.2360	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1670	0.1667	0.1668	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7500	0.7500	0.7500	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	4
Season rows before report date	4
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	4
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.167

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260508_WAS@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	691788
playerID	691788
playerName	Joe Mack
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	MIA
teamID	15

Owen Caissie (683357) · BATTER · RF · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 28

All-history rows before 20260509: 28

System season_avg: 0.2000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.214	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.214	0.000	-0.214	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.214	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.214	3.000	-0.214	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.126	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.200	0.333	0.133	0.000
predicted_BB	0.214	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.214	1.000	0.786	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.370	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.643	1.000	0.357	0.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.036	0.000	-0.036	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.254	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.257	0.500	0.243	0.000
predicted_R	0.321	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.321	0.000	0.679	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.158	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.300	0.333	0.033	0.000
predicted_SO	1.464	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.464	1.000	-0.464	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.214	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.214	-
predicted_AVG	0.126	-
predicted_BB	0.214	-
predicted_H	0.370	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.254	-
predicted_R	0.321	-
predicted_RBI	0.310	-
predicted_SLG	0.158	-
predicted_SO	1.464	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.120	-0.094
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.905	-0.309
predicted_AVG	0.126	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.296	0.082
predicted_H	0.353	-0.017
predicted_HBP	0.148	-
predicted_HR	0.007	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.254	-0.000
predicted_R	0.279	-0.042
predicted_RBI	0.295	-0.015
predicted_SLG	0.158	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.287	-0.177

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.21), rates preserved: AVG=0.110 HR/AB=0.002

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.802

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	12.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	0.0833	0.2667	0.0833	0.0833	0.0000	0.0833	0.1667	0.4167
last_10	0.35	10	-	29.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	3.000	13.000	0.1379	0.2353	0.1724	0.1379	0.0000	0.1035	0.1035	0.4483
season	0.20	28	-	90.000	18.000	6.000	1.000	14.000	9.000	6.000	41.000	0.2000	0.2574	0.3000	0.2000	0.0111	0.1556	0.0667	0.4556

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0700
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.7380
predicted_AVG	0.1258
predicted_BB	0.3410
predicted_H	0.3440
predicted_HBP	0.1480
predicted_HR	0.0060
predicted_OBP	0.2539
predicted_R	0.2570
predicted_RBI	0.2870
predicted_SLG	0.1578
predicted_SO	1.1920

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2140	0.0700	0.1204	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2140	2.7380	2.9046	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1260	0.1258	0.1259	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2140	0.3410	0.2965	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3700	0.3440	0.3531	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1480	0.1480	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0060	0.0074	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2540	0.2539	0.2539	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3210	0.2570	0.2794	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3100	0.2870	0.2950	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1580	0.1578	0.1579	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4640	1.1920	1.2872	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.2

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260506_BAL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	683357
playerID	683357
playerName	Owen Caissie
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	MIA
teamID	15

Janson Junk (676083) · PITCHER · Starter · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 7

All-history rows before 20260509: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.714	1.000	0.286	1.000
predicted_IP	4.100	4.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.343	5.100	-1.243	-1.000
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	-	Pitching_SO	3.857	6.000	0.143	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 4.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	26.200	8.000	20.000	6.000	19.000	2.000	2.7000	0.9750	0.3000	0.7500	0.2250	0.7125	0.0750
last_10	0.35	7	38.100	12.000	32.000	8.000	27.000	3.000	2.8174	1.0435	0.3130	0.8348	0.2087	0.7044	0.0783
season	0.20	7	38.100	12.000	32.000	8.000	27.000	3.000	2.8174	1.0435	0.3130	0.8348	0.2087	0.7044	0.0783

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.1520
predicted_ER	1.6380
predicted_ERA	2.7646
predicted_H	4.2490
predicted_HR	0.4100
predicted_IP	5.1000
predicted_SO	3.7760
predicted_WHIP	1.0127

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	1.1520	1.0988	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	1.6380	1.7647	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.7646	2.7646	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	4.2490	4.1618	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	2.0000	0.4100	0.9665	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.1000	5.1000	5.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	4.0000	3.7760	3.8544	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0127	1.0127	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.1
H	4
R	2
ER	2
BB	1
SO	4
HR	2
BF	21
Pitches	87

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	22
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	2.82
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	6
Pitching_H	5
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.1
Pitching_Pitches	92
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	6
Pitching_Strikes	64
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_PHI@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	676083
playerID	676083
playerName	Janson Junk
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	MIA
teamID	15

Calvin Faucher (676534) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 16

All-history rows before 20260509: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.787	1.000	0.412	0.200
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	0.0000	1.0000	0.0000	0.4000	0.6000	0.8000
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	3.000	7.000	5.000	7.000	3.0000	1.3333	0.3333	0.7778	0.5556	0.7778
season	0.20	16	14.000	6.000	10.000	12.000	16.000	3.8571	1.5714	0.4286	0.7143	0.8571	1.1429

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6360
predicted_ER	0.2020
predicted_ERA	1.8214
predicted_H	0.5950
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8610
predicted_WHIP	1.2309

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.6360	0.7634	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2020	0.1313	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.8214	1.8214	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.5950	0.7368	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.0000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8610	0.9096	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2309	1.2309	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.86
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_BAL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	676534
playerID	676534
playerName	Calvin Faucher
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIA
teamID	15

Anthony Bender (669622) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 17

All-history rows before 20260509: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.412	0.000	1.588	2.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.671	1.000	0.429	0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.6429
last_10	0.35	10	8.200	2.000	5.000	2.000	10.000	2.0769	0.8077	0.2308	0.5769	0.2308	1.1539
season	0.20	17	14.200	7.000	11.000	8.000	17.000	4.2955	1.2955	0.4773	0.7500	0.5454	1.1591

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1900
predicted_ER	0.1760
predicted_ERA	1.5860
predicted_H	0.3520
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9250
predicted_WHIP	0.5418

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1900	0.1235	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.1760	0.8144	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.5860	1.5860	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	0.3520	1.2788	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.0000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.9250	0.6013	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.5418	0.5418	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	3
R	2
ER	2
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	22

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.30
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_WAS@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	669622
playerID	669622
playerName	Anthony Bender
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIA
teamID	15

Tyler Phillips (663969) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 12

All-history rows before 20260509: 12

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.875	2.100	-0.875	-1.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	2.000	2.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	8.200	2.000	9.000	4.000	6.000	1.000	2.0769	1.5000	0.2308	1.0385	0.4615	0.6923	0.1154
last_10	0.35	10	19.200	3.000	16.000	11.000	19.000	1.000	1.3729	1.3729	0.1525	0.8136	0.5593	0.9661	0.0508
season	0.20	12	23.200	3.000	18.000	13.000	24.000	1.000	1.1408	1.3099	0.1268	0.7606	0.5493	1.0141	0.0423

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.9500
predicted_ER	0.3380
predicted_ERA	1.6433
predicted_H	1.6730
predicted_HR	0.1450
predicted_IP	2.0000
predicted_SO	1.5770
predicted_WHIP	1.4175

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.9500	0.6175	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3380	0.2197	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.6433	1.6433	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.6730	1.0875	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1450	0.0943	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	2.0000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.5770	1.3750	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4175	1.4175	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	12

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	9
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.14
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.1
Pitching_Pitches	29
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	20
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_WAS@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	663969
playerID	663969
playerName	Tyler Phillips
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIA
teamID	15

John King (667463) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260509: 18

All-history rows before 20260509: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.700	0.200	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.833	1.000	1.167	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	0.000	0.0000	0.4615	0.0000	0.2308	0.2308	0.6923	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	9.000	0.000	0.0000	0.4000	0.0000	0.1000	0.3000	0.9000	0.0000
season	0.20	18	16.100	1.000	3.000	6.000	15.000	1.000	0.5510	0.5510	0.0612	0.1837	0.3674	0.9184	0.0612

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2820
predicted_ER	0.0120
predicted_ERA	0.1102
predicted_H	0.1760
predicted_HR	0.0120
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8100
predicted_WHIP	0.4579

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.2820	0.5333	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.0120	0.0078	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.1102	0.1102	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.1760	0.4644	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0120	0.0078	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.8100	1.2265	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.4579	0.4579	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	2
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	22

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.55
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_WAS@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	667463
playerID	667463
playerName	John King
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIA
teamID	15