Ultra Detailed Player Audit - 20260508

Player-by-player trace from JSON pipeline. Metric-by-metric comparison without wide horizontal table dependency.

Windows shown explicitly: Team recent form = latest 10 games from enhanced analysis. Player historical helpers = 75 games; balancing rates = 162 games (as implemented in services).

Color guide: Red = final above baseline, Blue = final below baseline, Green = no difference.

20260508_ATL@LAD 20260508_CHC@TEX 20260508_COL@PHI 20260508_DET@KC 20260508_HOU@CIN 20260508_LAA@TOR 20260508_MIN@CLE 20260508_NYM@ARI 20260508_NYY@MIL 20260508_OAK@BAL 20260508_PIT@SF 20260508_SEA@CHW 20260508_STL@SD 20260508_TB@BOS 20260508_WAS@MIA

20260508_ATL@LAD

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "confidence": 0.5304968761829696, "home_win_probability": 0.5304968761829696, "away_win_probability": 0.4695031238170304, "predicted_score_text": "ATL 5 - 6 LAD", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to final winner probability with starter-quality caps.", "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score", "final_prediction_synced": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "ATL 5 - 6 LAD", "winner": "LAD"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "ATL 5 - 6 LAD", "winner": "LAD"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"}}

Factors Considered: Historical team performance, Recent form (latest 10 games), Head-to-head matchup history, Player-level statistics, Recent 10-game performance trends, Pitcher recent form analysis, Team hitting/pitching streaks, Low-score probability modeling, Environmental factors, Home field advantage, Game timing factors, Seasonal adjustments, Machine learning models

Away Team: ATL

Jim Jarvis (805347) · BATTER · SS · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 0

All-history rows before 20260508: 0

System season_avg: 0.0000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): -

Diff (system - data): -

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	-	-	-	-
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	-	-	-	-
predicted_AB	0.000	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	-	-	-	-
predicted_AVG	0.000	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	-	-	-	-
predicted_BB	0.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	-	-	-	-
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	-	-	-	-
predicted_H	0.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	-	-	-	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	-	-	-	-
predicted_OBP	0.000	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	-	-	-	-
predicted_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	-	-	-	-
predicted_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	-	-	-	-
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	-	-	-	-
predicted_SLG	0.000	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	-	-	-	-
predicted_SO	0.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	-	-	-	-

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw XGBoost model output

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	0.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.000	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.000	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.000	-
predicted_SLG	0.000	-
predicted_SO	0.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.472	2.472
predicted_AVG	0.000	0.000
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.000	0.000
predicted_R	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.000	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.47), rates preserved: AVG=0.000 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 0

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Total PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
last_10	0.35	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
season	0.20	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.8030
predicted_BB	0.0000
predicted_H	0.0000
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_R	0.0000
predicted_RBI	0.0000
predicted_SO	0.0000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	0.0000	3.8030	2.4720	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.0000	-	0.0000	model_only
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.0000	-	0.0000	model_only
predicted_R	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.0000	-	0.0000	model_only
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	0
Season rows before report date	0
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	0
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.0

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

No historical data found for this player before report date.

Matt Olson (621566) · BATTER · 1B · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 38

All-history rows before 20260508: 38

System season_avg: 0.3010

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3014

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.395	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.395	0.000	-0.395	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.842	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.842	3.000	1.158	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.301	0.000	-0.301	0.000
predicted_BB	0.579	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.579	1.000	-0.579	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.158	0.000	-1.158	0.000
predicted_HR	0.570	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.342	0.000	-0.342	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.429	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.388	0.250	-0.388	-0.250
predicted_R	0.921	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.921	0.000	-0.921	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.950	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.868	0.000	-0.868	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.879	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.671	0.000	-0.671	0.000
predicted_SO	1.026	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.026	2.000	-0.026	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.395	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.842	-
predicted_AVG	0.320	-
predicted_BB	0.579	-
predicted_H	1.190	-
predicted_HR	0.570	-
predicted_OBP	0.429	-
predicted_R	0.921	-
predicted_RBI	0.950	-
predicted_SLG	0.879	-
predicted_SO	1.026	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.374	-0.021
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.693	-0.149
predicted_AVG	0.320	0.000
predicted_BB	0.673	0.094
predicted_H	1.169	-0.021
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.558	-0.012
predicted_OBP	0.429	-0.000
predicted_R	1.046	0.125
predicted_RBI	0.932	-0.018
predicted_SLG	0.879	0.000
predicted_SO	0.990	-0.036

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.84), rates preserved: AVG=0.304 HR/AB=0.145

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	-1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.842

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	6.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	6.000	4.000	5.000	0.3333	0.4545	0.9444	0.3333	0.1667	0.2222	0.2222	0.2778
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	11.000	3.000	6.000	11.000	11.000	7.000	9.000	0.3143	0.4186	0.9143	0.3143	0.1714	0.3143	0.2000	0.2571
season	0.20	38	-	146.000	44.000	15.000	13.000	33.000	35.000	22.000	39.000	0.3014	0.3882	0.6712	0.3014	0.0890	0.2260	0.1507	0.2671

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3630
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.6130
predicted_AVG	0.3203
predicted_BB	0.7230
predicted_H	1.1570
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.5520
predicted_OBP	0.4287
predicted_R	1.1130
predicted_RBI	0.9220
predicted_SLG	0.8792
predicted_SO	0.9700

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3950	0.3630	0.3742	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8420	3.6130	3.6932	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3200	0.3203	0.3202	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5790	0.7230	0.6726	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1900	1.1570	1.1685	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.5700	0.5520	0.5583	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4290	0.4287	0.4288	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.9210	1.1130	1.0458	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.9500	0.9220	0.9318	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.8790	0.8792	0.8791	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0260	0.9700	0.9896	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.301

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260506_ATL@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	621566
playerID	621566
playerName	Matt Olson
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	ATL
teamID	2

Drake Baldwin (686948) · BATTER · C · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 38

All-history rows before 20260508: 38

System season_avg: 0.3030

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3032

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.132	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.132	0.000	-0.132	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.079	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	4.079	4.000	0.921	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.318	0.400	0.400	Hitting_AVG	0.303	0.250	0.097	0.150
predicted_BB	0.421	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.421	0.000	-0.421	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.300	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	1.237	1.000	0.763	1.000
predicted_HR	0.290	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.237	0.000	0.763	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.387	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.379	0.250	0.021	0.150
predicted_R	0.868	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.868	0.000	0.132	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.810	3.000	3.000	Hitting_RBI	0.789	0.000	2.211	3.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.573	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SLG	0.510	0.250	0.490	0.750
predicted_SO	0.921	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.921	2.000	0.079	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.132	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.079	-
predicted_AVG	0.318	-
predicted_BB	0.421	-
predicted_H	1.300	-
predicted_HR	0.290	-
predicted_OBP	0.387	-
predicted_R	0.868	-
predicted_RBI	0.810	-
predicted_SLG	0.573	-
predicted_SO	0.921	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.144	0.012
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.074	-0.005
predicted_AVG	0.318	0.000
predicted_BB	0.411	-0.010
predicted_H	1.297	-0.003
predicted_HBP	0.052	-
predicted_HR	0.293	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.387	0.000
predicted_R	0.706	-0.162
predicted_RBI	0.812	0.002
predicted_SLG	0.573	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.939	0.018

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.08), rates preserved: AVG=0.318 HR/AB=0.072

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	3.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 4.079

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	7.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	3.000	2.000	5.000	0.3333	0.3913	0.6667	0.3333	0.0952	0.2381	0.0952	0.2381
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	12.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	5.000	4.000	9.000	0.3077	0.3864	0.4872	0.3077	0.0513	0.1538	0.1026	0.2308
season	0.20	38	-	155.000	47.000	5.000	9.000	30.000	33.000	16.000	35.000	0.3032	0.3793	0.5097	0.3032	0.0581	0.1935	0.1032	0.2258

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1500
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.0710
predicted_AVG	0.3183
predicted_BB	0.4050
predicted_H	1.2960
predicted_HBP	0.0520
predicted_HR	0.2950
predicted_OBP	0.3872
predicted_R	0.6180
predicted_RBI	0.8130
predicted_SLG	0.5725
predicted_SO	0.9490

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1320	0.1500	0.1437	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0790	4.0710	4.0738	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3180	0.3183	0.3182	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4210	0.4050	0.4106	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.3000	1.2960	1.2974	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0520	0.0520	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2900	0.2950	0.2933	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3870	0.3872	0.3871	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8680	0.6180	0.7055	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.8100	0.8130	0.8119	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5730	0.5725	0.5727	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9210	0.9490	0.9392	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	3
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.303

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH-C
gameID	20260506_ATL@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	686948
playerID	686948
playerName	Drake Baldwin
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	ATL
teamID	2

Mauricio Dubón (643289) · BATTER · LF · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 36

All-history rows before 20260508: 36

System season_avg: 0.2670

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2672

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_3B	0.056	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_AB	3.639	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.639	4.000	0.361	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.220	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.267	0.250	-0.017	0.000
predicted_BB	0.278	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.278	0.000	0.722	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_H	0.760	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.972	1.000	0.028	0.000
predicted_HR	0.010	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.056	0.000	0.944	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.335	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.329	0.250	0.071	0.150
predicted_R	0.472	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.472	0.000	0.528	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.490	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	0.556	0.000	1.444	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.334	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SLG	0.412	0.250	0.588	0.750
predicted_SO	0.667	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.667	2.000	0.333	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.056	-
predicted_AB	3.639	-
predicted_AVG	0.220	-
predicted_BB	0.278	-
predicted_H	0.760	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.335	-
predicted_R	0.472	-
predicted_RBI	0.490	-
predicted_SLG	0.334	-
predicted_SO	0.667	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.224	-0.026
predicted_3B	0.071	0.015
predicted_AB	3.560	-0.079
predicted_AVG	0.220	0.000
predicted_BB	0.463	0.185
predicted_H	0.770	0.010
predicted_HBP	0.045	-
predicted_HR	0.011	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.335	0.000
predicted_R	0.313	-0.159
predicted_RBI	0.496	0.006
predicted_SLG	0.334	0.000
predicted_SO	0.670	0.003

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.64), rates preserved: AVG=0.212 HR/AB=0.003

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	4.000	0.1765	0.3333	0.2353	0.1765	0.0000	0.1177	0.2353	0.2353
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	9.000	2.000	2.000	0.000	6.000	4.000	4.000	5.000	0.2500	0.3415	0.4167	0.2500	0.0000	0.1667	0.1111	0.1389
season	0.20	36	-	131.000	35.000	9.000	2.000	2.000	20.000	17.000	10.000	24.000	0.2672	0.3287	0.4122	0.2672	0.0153	0.1527	0.0763	0.1832

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2100
predicted_3B	0.0790
predicted_AB	3.5180
predicted_AVG	0.2204
predicted_BB	0.5630
predicted_H	0.7750
predicted_HBP	0.0450
predicted_HR	0.0110
predicted_OBP	0.3353
predicted_R	0.2280
predicted_RBI	0.4990
predicted_SLG	0.3342
predicted_SO	0.6720

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.2100	0.2240	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0560	0.0790	0.0709	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6390	3.5180	3.5603	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2200	0.2204	0.2203	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2780	0.5630	0.4632	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7600	0.7750	0.7697	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0450	0.0450	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0110	0.0106	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3350	0.3353	0.3352	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4720	0.2280	0.3134	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4900	0.4990	0.4959	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3340	0.3342	0.3341	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6670	0.6720	0.6703	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.267

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF-SS
gameID	20260506_ATL@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	643289
playerID	643289
playerName	Mauricio Dubón
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	ATL
teamID	2

Austin Riley (663586) · BATTER · 3B · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 37

All-history rows before 20260508: 37

System season_avg: 0.2060

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2057

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.162	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.162	0.000	-0.162	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.811	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.811	3.000	0.189	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.193	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.206	0.000	-0.206	0.000
predicted_BB	0.351	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.351	0.000	-0.351	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.660	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.784	0.000	-0.784	0.000
predicted_HR	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.135	0.000	-0.135	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.231	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.280	0.000	-0.280	0.000
predicted_R	0.514	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.514	0.000	-0.514	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.590	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.595	0.000	-0.595	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.081	0.000	-0.081	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.421	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.355	0.000	-0.355	0.000
predicted_SO	1.162	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.162	2.000	0.838	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.162	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.811	-
predicted_AVG	0.193	-
predicted_BB	0.351	-
predicted_H	0.660	-
predicted_HR	0.250	-
predicted_OBP	0.231	-
predicted_R	0.514	-
predicted_RBI	0.590	-
predicted_SLG	0.421	-
predicted_SO	1.162	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.077	-0.085
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.782	-0.029
predicted_AVG	0.193	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.249	-0.102
predicted_H	0.703	0.043
predicted_HBP	0.011	-
predicted_HR	0.267	0.017
predicted_OBP	0.231	0.000
predicted_R	0.513	-0.001
predicted_RBI	0.631	0.041
predicted_SLG	0.421	0.000
predicted_SO	1.518	0.356

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.81), rates preserved: AVG=0.184 HR/AB=0.070

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.811

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	4.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	1.000	9.000	0.2105	0.2500	0.5263	0.2105	0.1053	0.2105	0.0526	0.4737
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	6.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	4.000	1.000	19.000	0.1622	0.1795	0.3243	0.1622	0.0541	0.1351	0.0270	0.5135
season	0.20	37	-	141.000	29.000	6.000	5.000	22.000	19.000	13.000	43.000	0.2057	0.2803	0.3546	0.2057	0.0355	0.1560	0.0922	0.3050

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0320
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7670
predicted_AVG	0.1926
predicted_BB	0.1940
predicted_H	0.7260
predicted_HBP	0.0110
predicted_HR	0.2760
predicted_OBP	0.2314
predicted_R	0.5120
predicted_RBI	0.6530
predicted_SLG	0.4213
predicted_SO	1.7100

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1620	0.0320	0.0775	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8110	3.7670	3.7824	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1930	0.1926	0.1927	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3510	0.1940	0.2490	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6600	0.7260	0.7029	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0110	0.0110	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2500	0.2760	0.2669	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2310	0.2314	0.2313	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5140	0.5120	0.5127	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5900	0.6530	0.6310	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4210	0.4213	0.4212	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1620	1.7100	1.5182	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.206

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260506_ATL@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	663586
playerID	663586
playerName	Austin Riley
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	ATL
teamID	2

Ozzie Albies (645277) · BATTER · 2B · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 38

All-history rows before 20260508: 38

System season_avg: 0.3220

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3219

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.211	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.211	0.000	-0.211	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.842	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.842	3.000	0.158	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.331	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.322	0.000	-0.322	0.000
predicted_BB	0.342	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.342	1.000	0.658	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.079	0.000	-0.079	0.000
predicted_H	1.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.237	0.000	-1.237	0.000
predicted_HR	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.211	0.000	-0.211	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.405	0.200	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.374	0.250	-0.174	-0.050
predicted_R	0.763	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.763	0.000	-0.763	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.650	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.605	0.000	-0.605	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.592	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.541	0.000	-0.541	0.000
predicted_SO	0.526	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.526	1.000	0.474	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.211	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.842	-
predicted_AVG	0.331	-
predicted_BB	0.342	-
predicted_H	1.230	-
predicted_HR	0.240	-
predicted_OBP	0.405	-
predicted_R	0.763	-
predicted_RBI	0.650	-
predicted_SLG	0.592	-
predicted_SO	0.526	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.229	0.018
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.716	-0.126
predicted_AVG	0.331	0.000
predicted_BB	0.478	0.136
predicted_H	1.216	-0.014
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.239	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.405	0.000
predicted_R	0.888	0.125
predicted_RBI	0.642	-0.008
predicted_SLG	0.592	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.601	0.075

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.84), rates preserved: AVG=0.316 HR/AB=0.062

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.842

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	3.000	4.000	0.3333	0.4091	0.5556	0.3333	0.0556	0.1667	0.1667	0.2222
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	12.000	3.000	3.000	7.000	10.000	6.000	5.000	0.3333	0.4186	0.6667	0.3333	0.0833	0.1944	0.1667	0.1389
season	0.20	38	-	146.000	47.000	8.000	8.000	23.000	29.000	13.000	20.000	0.3219	0.3742	0.5411	0.3219	0.0548	0.1575	0.0890	0.1370

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2380
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.6480
predicted_AVG	0.3310
predicted_BB	0.5510
predicted_H	1.2080
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.2380
predicted_OBP	0.4054
predicted_R	0.9560
predicted_RBI	0.6370
predicted_SLG	0.5916
predicted_SO	0.6420

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2110	0.2380	0.2286	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8420	3.6480	3.7159	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3310	0.3310	0.3310	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3420	0.5510	0.4778	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2300	1.2080	1.2157	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2400	0.2380	0.2387	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4050	0.4054	0.4053	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7630	0.9560	0.8884	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6500	0.6370	0.6416	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5920	0.5916	0.5917	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5260	0.6420	0.6014	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.322

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260506_ATL@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	645277
playerID	645277
playerName	Ozzie Albies
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	ATL
teamID	2

Michael Harris II (671739) · BATTER · CF · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 29

All-history rows before 20260508: 29

System season_avg: 0.2820

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2818

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.103	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.103	0.000	-0.103	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.793	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.793	4.000	1.207	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.229	0.400	0.400	Hitting_AVG	0.282	0.000	0.118	0.400
predicted_BB	0.172	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.172	0.000	-0.172	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.840	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	1.069	0.000	0.931	2.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.207	0.000	-0.207	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.238	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.310	0.000	0.090	0.400
predicted_R	0.414	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.414	0.000	0.586	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.621	0.000	-0.621	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.069	0.000	-0.069	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.341	0.400	0.400	Hitting_SLG	0.473	0.000	-0.073	0.400
predicted_SO	0.724	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.724	1.000	1.276	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.103	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.793	-
predicted_AVG	0.229	-
predicted_BB	0.172	-
predicted_H	0.840	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.238	-
predicted_R	0.414	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.341	-
predicted_SO	0.724	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.095	-0.008
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.797	0.004
predicted_AVG	0.229	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.106	-0.066
predicted_H	0.859	0.019
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.111	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.238	0.000
predicted_R	0.326	-0.088
predicted_RBI	0.399	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.341	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.718	-0.006

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.80), rates preserved: AVG=0.226 HR/AB=0.029

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	0.1579	0.1579	0.1579	0.1579	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.2105
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	11.000	2.000	2.000	8.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	0.2895	0.3000	0.5000	0.2895	0.0526	0.2105	0.0263	0.1579
season	0.20	29	-	110.000	31.000	3.000	6.000	18.000	12.000	5.000	21.000	0.2818	0.3103	0.4727	0.2818	0.0546	0.1636	0.0454	0.1909

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0910
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7990
predicted_AVG	0.2287
predicted_BB	0.0700
predicted_H	0.8690
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1110
predicted_OBP	0.2381
predicted_R	0.2780
predicted_RBI	0.4040
predicted_SLG	0.3406
predicted_SO	0.7150

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1030	0.0910	0.0952	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7930	3.7990	3.7969	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2290	0.2287	0.2288	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1720	0.0700	0.1057	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8400	0.8690	0.8588	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1110	0.1106	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2380	0.2381	0.2381	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4140	0.2780	0.3256	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.4040	0.3991	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3410	0.3406	0.3407	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7240	0.7150	0.7181	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.282

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260506_ATL@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	671739
playerID	671739
playerName	Michael Harris II
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	ATL
teamID	2

Mike Yastrzemski (573262) · BATTER · RF · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 27

All-history rows before 20260508: 27

System season_avg: 0.2080

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2083

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.148	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.148	0.000	0.852	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.556	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.556	3.000	0.444	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.208	0.333	0.292	0.167
predicted_BB	0.259	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.259	0.000	-0.259	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.730	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.741	1.000	1.259	1.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.256	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.269	0.333	0.231	0.167
predicted_R	0.407	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.407	1.000	0.593	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.037	0.000	-0.037	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.289	0.750	0.750	Hitting_SLG	0.250	0.333	0.500	0.417
predicted_SO	0.889	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.889	0.000	0.111	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.148	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.556	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.259	-
predicted_H	0.730	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.256	-
predicted_R	0.407	-
predicted_RBI	0.150	-
predicted_SLG	0.289	-
predicted_SO	0.889	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.152	0.005
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.498	-0.058
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000
predicted_BB	0.124	-0.135
predicted_H	0.805	0.075
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.256	0.000
predicted_R	0.426	0.019
predicted_RBI	0.163	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.289	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.678	-0.211

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.56), rates preserved: AVG=0.226 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	0.2941	0.2941	0.3529	0.2941	0.0588	0.0000	0.1177
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.000	6.000	0.2000	0.2000	0.2286	0.2000	0.0286	0.0000	0.1714
season	0.20	27	-	96.000	20.000	4.000	6.000	11.000	7.000	24.000	0.2083	0.2692	0.2500	0.2083	0.0625	0.0729	0.2500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1550
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.4660
predicted_AVG	0.2440
predicted_BB	0.0510
predicted_H	0.8460
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.2562
predicted_R	0.4360
predicted_RBI	0.1700
predicted_SLG	0.2888
predicted_SO	0.5650

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1480	0.1550	0.1525	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5560	3.4660	3.4975	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2440	0.2440	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2590	0.0510	0.1238	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7300	0.8460	0.8054	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2560	0.2562	0.2561	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4070	0.4360	0.4258	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1500	0.1700	0.1630	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2890	0.2888	0.2889	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8890	0.5650	0.6784	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.208

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260506_ATL@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	573262
playerID	573262
playerName	Mike Yastrzemski
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	ATL
teamID	2

Dominic Smith (642086) · BATTER · DH · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 18

All-history rows before 20260508: 18

System season_avg: 0.3490

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3492

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.500	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	4.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.302	0.750	0.750	Hitting_AVG	0.349	0.000	0.401	0.750
predicted_BB	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.960	3.000	3.000	Hitting_H	1.222	0.000	1.778	3.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.326	0.750	0.750	Hitting_OBP	0.373	0.000	0.377	0.750
predicted_R	0.611	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.611	0.000	0.389	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.520	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.944	0.000	-0.944	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.422	0.750	0.750	Hitting_SLG	0.571	0.000	0.179	0.750
predicted_SO	0.444	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.444	2.000	-0.444	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.302	-
predicted_BB	0.111	-
predicted_H	0.960	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.326	-
predicted_R	0.611	-
predicted_RBI	0.520	-
predicted_SLG	0.422	-
predicted_SO	0.444	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.100	-0.011
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.633	0.133
predicted_AVG	0.302	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.054	-0.057
predicted_H	1.063	0.103
predicted_HBP	0.135	-
predicted_HR	0.111	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.326	0.000
predicted_R	0.423	-0.188
predicted_RBI	0.574	0.054
predicted_SLG	0.422	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.502	0.058

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.63), rates preserved: AVG=0.292 HR/AB=0.031

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	0.2632	0.3000	0.2632	0.2632	0.0000	0.0526	0.0000	0.1579
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	12.000	2.000	2.000	9.000	3.000	0.000	5.000	0.3243	0.3333	0.5405	0.3243	0.0541	0.2432	0.0000	0.1351
season	0.20	18	-	63.000	22.000	2.000	4.000	17.000	11.000	2.000	8.000	0.3492	0.3731	0.5714	0.3492	0.0635	0.2698	0.0318	0.1270

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0940
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7050
predicted_AVG	0.3018
predicted_BB	0.0240
predicted_H	1.1180
predicted_HBP	0.1350
predicted_HR	0.1170
predicted_OBP	0.3263
predicted_R	0.3220
predicted_RBI	0.6030
predicted_SLG	0.4219
predicted_SO	0.5330

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1110	0.0940	0.0999	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5000	3.7050	3.6333	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3020	0.3018	0.3019	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1110	0.0240	0.0544	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9600	1.1180	1.0627	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1350	0.1350	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1170	0.1111	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3260	0.3263	0.3262	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6110	0.3220	0.4232	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5200	0.6030	0.5739	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4220	0.4219	0.4219	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4440	0.5330	0.5019	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	3
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.349

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260505_ATL@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	642086
playerID	642086
playerName	Dominic Smith
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	ATL
teamID	2

Chris Sale (519242) · PITCHER · Starter · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 7

All-history rows before 20260508: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.429	1.000	0.571	1.000
predicted_IP	5.200	5.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	6.000	7.000	-0.800	-1.800
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	-	Pitching_SO	7.000	11.000	-2.000	-6.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 5.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	30.000	9.000	22.000	9.000	40.000	4.000	2.7000	1.0333	0.3000	0.7333	0.3000	1.3333	0.1333
last_10	0.35	7	42.000	10.000	26.000	12.000	49.000	5.000	2.1429	0.9048	0.2381	0.6190	0.2857	1.1667	0.1191
season	0.20	7	42.000	10.000	26.000	12.000	49.000	5.000	2.1429	0.9048	0.2381	0.6190	0.2857	1.1667	0.1191

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.7530
predicted_ER	1.5960
predicted_ERA	2.3936
predicted_H	4.0230
predicted_HR	0.7530
predicted_IP	6.0000
predicted_SO	7.4500
predicted_WHIP	0.9626

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	1.7530	1.4895	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	1.5960	1.7374	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.3936	2.3936	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	4.0230	2.9649	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.7530	0.4894	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.2000	6.0000	6.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	7.4500	6.5925	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9626	0.9626	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.2
H	1
R	2
ER	2
BB	1
SO	5
HR	0
BF	20
Pitches	78

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	27
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	2.14
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	7
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	7.0
Pitching_Pitches	102
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	11
Pitching_Strikes	70
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260502_ATL@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	519242
playerID	519242
playerName	Chris Sale
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	ATL
teamID	2

Raisel Iglesias (628452) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 9

All-history rows before 20260508: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.022	1.000	0.078	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.444	2.000	-0.444	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	WHIP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	5.000	1.000	11.000	1.0588	0.8823	0.1765	1.9412
last_10	0.35	9	9.200	6.000	1.000	13.000	0.7241	0.6207	0.1035	1.3448
season	0.20	9	9.200	6.000	1.000	13.000	0.7241	0.6207	0.1035	1.3448

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1360
predicted_ER	0.0000
predicted_ERA	0.0000
predicted_H	0.7380
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.6130
predicted_WHIP	0.8747

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1360	0.0884	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.0000	0.3500	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.7380	0.8297	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0000	0.3500	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.0000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.6130	1.3984	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.8747	0.8747	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	1
HR	1
BF	4
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.00
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	19
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_ATL@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	628452
playerID	628452
playerName	Raisel Iglesias
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ATL
teamID	2

Robert Suarez (663158) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 16

All-history rows before 20260508: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.950	1.000	0.050	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	2.000	0.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	4.000	1.000	5.000	0.0000	1.0000	0.0000	0.8000	0.2000	1.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	1.000	8.000	1.000	9.000	0.9310	0.9310	0.1035	0.8276	0.1035	0.9310
season	0.20	16	15.200	1.000	12.000	2.000	16.000	0.5745	0.8936	0.0638	0.7660	0.1277	1.0213

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1520
predicted_ER	0.0490
predicted_ERA	0.4407
predicted_H	0.8030
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9800
predicted_WHIP	0.9546

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1520	0.0988	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.0490	0.0319	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.4407	0.4407	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8030	0.5220	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9800	0.9870	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9546	0.9546	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.57
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_ATL@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	663158
playerID	663158
playerName	Robert Suarez
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ATL
teamID	2

Dylan Lee (669276) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 18

All-history rows before 20260508: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.111	0.000	2.889	3.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.917	1.000	-0.717	-0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.278	3.000	-0.278	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	1.000	1.000	0.000	12.000	1.5882	0.1765	0.1765	0.1765	0.0000	2.1176
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	16.000	0.9000	0.3000	0.1000	0.1000	0.2000	1.6000
season	0.20	18	17.200	2.000	6.000	2.000	23.000	1.0189	0.4528	0.1132	0.3396	0.1132	1.3019

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.0930
predicted_ER	0.1370
predicted_ERA	1.2335
predicted_H	0.1820
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.7730
predicted_WHIP	0.2750

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.0930	0.7604	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	0.1370	1.1390	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.2335	1.2335	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	0.1820	1.1683	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0000	0.3500	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.7730	1.5025	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.2750	0.2750	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	3
R	3
ER	3
BB	2
SO	1
HR	1
BF	7
Pitches	33

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.02
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_ATL@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	669276
playerID	669276
playerName	Dylan Lee
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ATL
teamID	2

Home Team: LAD

Will Smith (669257) · BATTER · C · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 25

All-history rows before 20260508: 25

System season_avg: 0.2700

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2700

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.120	0.000	-0.120	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	4.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.297	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.270	0.000	-0.270	0.000
predicted_BB	0.360	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.360	0.000	0.640	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.080	0.000	-1.080	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.120	0.000	-0.120	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.354	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.327	0.000	-0.077	0.250
predicted_R	0.480	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.480	0.000	0.520	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.510	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.640	0.000	-0.640	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.411	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.390	0.000	-0.390	0.000
predicted_SO	0.720	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.720	0.000	-0.720	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.120	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.297	-
predicted_BB	0.360	-
predicted_H	1.150	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.354	-
predicted_R	0.480	-
predicted_RBI	0.510	-
predicted_SLG	0.411	-
predicted_SO	0.720	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.223	0.103
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.964	-0.036
predicted_AVG	0.297	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.359	-0.001
predicted_H	1.163	0.013
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.058	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.354	-0.000
predicted_R	0.356	-0.124
predicted_RBI	0.513	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.411	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.680	-0.040

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.291 HR/AB=0.015

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 25

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	7.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	0.3684	0.4286	0.4737	0.3684	0.0000	0.1053	0.1053	0.1579
last_10	0.35	10	-	41.000	9.000	2.000	1.000	6.000	3.000	3.000	7.000	0.2195	0.2727	0.3415	0.2195	0.0244	0.1463	0.0732	0.1707
season	0.20	25	-	100.000	27.000	3.000	3.000	16.000	12.000	9.000	18.000	0.2700	0.3273	0.3900	0.2700	0.0300	0.1600	0.0900	0.1800

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2780
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.9450
predicted_AVG	0.2966
predicted_BB	0.3590
predicted_H	1.1700
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0570
predicted_OBP	0.3538
predicted_R	0.2890
predicted_RBI	0.5150
predicted_SLG	0.4107
predicted_SO	0.6580

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1200	0.2780	0.2227	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0000	3.9450	3.9642	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2970	0.2966	0.2967	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3600	0.3590	0.3594	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1500	1.1700	1.1630	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0570	0.0580	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3540	0.3538	0.3539	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4800	0.2890	0.3558	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5100	0.5150	0.5132	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4110	0.4107	0.4108	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7200	0.6580	0.6797	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	25
Season rows before report date	25
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	25
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.27

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260505_LAD@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	669257
playerID	669257
playerName	Will Smith
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	LAD
teamID	14

Miguel Rojas (500743) · BATTER · SS · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 13

All-history rows before 20260508: 13

System season_avg: 0.3170

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3171

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.231	0.000	-0.231	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.417	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.154	4.000	-0.154	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.296	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.317	0.000	0.016	0.333
predicted_BB	0.083	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.077	0.000	0.923	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_H	0.840	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000
predicted_HR	0.120	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.077	0.000	0.923	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.306	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.000	0.167	0.500
predicted_R	0.250	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.231	0.000	0.769	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.470	3.000	3.000	Hitting_RBI	0.308	0.000	2.692	3.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.491	1.333	1.333	Hitting_SLG	0.463	0.000	0.870	1.333
predicted_SO	0.417	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.385	0.000	0.615	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.417	-
predicted_AVG	0.296	-
predicted_BB	0.083	-
predicted_H	0.840	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.306	-
predicted_R	0.250	-
predicted_RBI	0.470	-
predicted_SLG	0.491	-
predicted_SO	0.417	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.246	-0.004
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.431	0.014
predicted_AVG	0.296	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.062	-0.021
predicted_H	0.955	0.115
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.134	0.014
predicted_OBP	0.306	0.000
predicted_R	0.224	-0.026
predicted_RBI	0.534	0.064
predicted_SLG	0.491	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.290	-0.127

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.43), rates preserved: AVG=0.278 HR/AB=0.039

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, BvP AVG=0.167)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	3.000	3.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.2941	0.2941	0.5294	0.2941	0.0588	0.2353	0.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	10.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.2857	0.3056	0.4571	0.2857	0.0286	0.1143	0.0286	0.1143
season	0.20	12	-	41.000	13.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	0.3171	0.3333	0.4634	0.3171	0.0244	0.0976	0.0244	0.1220

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2440
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.4380
predicted_AVG	0.2958
predicted_BB	0.0510
predicted_H	1.0170
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1420
predicted_OBP	0.3060
predicted_R	0.2100
predicted_RBI	0.5690
predicted_SLG	0.4909
predicted_SO	0.2210

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.2440	0.2461	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4170	3.4380	3.4306	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2960	0.2958	0.2959	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0830	0.0510	0.0622	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8400	1.0170	0.9550	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1420	0.1343	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3060	0.3060	0.3060	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2500	0.2100	0.2240	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4700	0.5690	0.5343	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4910	0.4909	0.4909	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4170	0.2210	0.2896	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	3
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.317

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260505_LAD@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	500743
playerID	500743
playerName	Miguel Rojas
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	LAD
teamID	14

Teoscar Hernández (606192) · BATTER · LF · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 33

All-history rows before 20260508: 33

System season_avg: 0.2310

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2314

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.121	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.121	0.000	-0.121	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.667	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.667	4.000	-0.667	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.216	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.231	0.000	0.102	0.333
predicted_BB	0.394	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.394	0.000	0.606	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.750	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.848	0.000	0.152	1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.121	0.000	0.879	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.308	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.304	0.000	0.196	0.500
predicted_R	0.515	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.515	0.000	0.485	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.240	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.515	0.000	0.485	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.243	1.333	1.333	Hitting_SLG	0.364	0.000	0.970	1.333
predicted_SO	1.212	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.212	3.000	-1.212	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.121	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.667	-
predicted_AVG	0.216	-
predicted_BB	0.394	-
predicted_H	0.750	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.308	-
predicted_R	0.515	-
predicted_RBI	0.240	-
predicted_SLG	0.243	-
predicted_SO	1.212	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.059	-0.062
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.726	0.059
predicted_AVG	0.216	0.000
predicted_BB	0.471	0.077
predicted_H	0.791	0.041
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.023	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.308	0.000
predicted_R	0.402	-0.113
predicted_RBI	0.250	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.243	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.294	0.082

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.73), rates preserved: AVG=0.212 HR/AB=0.006

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=18.0, BvP AVG=0.222)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	8.000	0.2000	0.2727	0.2000	0.2000	0.0000	0.0000	0.1000	0.4000
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	8.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	4.000	7.000	11.000	0.2286	0.3571	0.2286	0.2286	0.0000	0.1143	0.2000	0.3143
season	0.20	33	-	121.000	28.000	4.000	4.000	17.000	17.000	13.000	40.000	0.2314	0.3037	0.3636	0.2314	0.0331	0.1405	0.1074	0.3306

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0250
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7580
predicted_AVG	0.2163
predicted_BB	0.5130
predicted_H	0.8130
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0250
predicted_OBP	0.3084
predicted_R	0.3410
predicted_RBI	0.2560
predicted_SLG	0.2427
predicted_SO	1.3380

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1210	0.0250	0.0586	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6670	3.7580	3.7261	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2160	0.2163	0.2162	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3940	0.5130	0.4714	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7500	0.8130	0.7909	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0250	0.0232	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3080	0.3084	0.3083	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5150	0.3410	0.4019	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2400	0.2560	0.2504	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2430	0.2427	0.2428	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2120	1.3380	1.2939	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.231

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260506_LAD@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	606192
playerID	606192
playerName	Teoscar Hernández
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	LAD
teamID	14

Andy Pages (681624) · BATTER · CF · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 36

All-history rows before 20260508: 36

System season_avg: 0.3380

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3382

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.778	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.778	5.000	0.222	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.377	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.338	0.600	-0.088	-0.350
predicted_BB	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_H	1.370	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.278	3.000	-0.278	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.222	3.000	-0.222	-3.000
predicted_OBP	0.405	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.378	0.600	-0.128	-0.350
predicted_R	0.611	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.611	3.000	0.389	-2.000
predicted_RBI	1.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.917	6.000	-0.917	-6.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.737	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.574	2.400	-0.324	-2.150
predicted_SO	0.861	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.861	0.000	0.139	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.222	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.778	-
predicted_AVG	0.377	-
predicted_BB	0.250	-
predicted_H	1.370	-
predicted_HR	0.370	-
predicted_OBP	0.405	-
predicted_R	0.611	-
predicted_RBI	1.090	-
predicted_SLG	0.737	-
predicted_SO	0.861	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.211	-0.011
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.929	0.151
predicted_AVG	0.377	0.000
predicted_BB	0.225	-0.025
predicted_H	1.463	0.093
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.398	0.028
predicted_OBP	0.405	0.000
predicted_R	0.764	0.153
predicted_RBI	1.165	0.075
predicted_SLG	0.737	0.000
predicted_SO	0.775	-0.086

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.93), rates preserved: AVG=0.372 HR/AB=0.101

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	9.000	1.000	3.000	8.000	5.000	1.000	3.000	0.4286	0.4545	0.9048	0.4286	0.1429	0.3810	0.0476	0.1429
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	13.000	2.000	3.000	9.000	8.000	2.000	8.000	0.3333	0.3571	0.6154	0.3333	0.0769	0.2308	0.0513	0.2051
season	0.20	36	-	136.000	46.000	8.000	8.000	33.000	22.000	9.000	31.000	0.3382	0.3784	0.5735	0.3382	0.0588	0.2427	0.0662	0.2279

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2050
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.0110
predicted_AVG	0.3772
predicted_BB	0.2110
predicted_H	1.5130
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.4130
predicted_OBP	0.4052
predicted_R	0.8470
predicted_RBI	1.2060
predicted_SLG	0.7372
predicted_SO	0.7290

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2220	0.2050	0.2109	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7780	4.0110	3.9295	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3770	0.3772	0.3771	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2500	0.2110	0.2246	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.3700	1.5130	1.4629	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3700	0.4130	0.3980	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4050	0.4052	0.4051	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6110	0.8470	0.7644	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	1.0900	1.2060	1.1654	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.7370	0.7372	0.7371	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8610	0.7290	0.7752	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.338

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.6
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	3
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	3
Hitting_RBI	6
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	12
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260506_LAD@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	681624
playerID	681624
playerName	Andy Pages
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	LAD
teamID	14

Kyle Tucker (663656) · BATTER · RF · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 35

All-history rows before 20260508: 35

System season_avg: 0.2540

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2536

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.229	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.229	1.000	-0.229	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.943	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.943	4.000	0.057	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.305	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.254	0.500	-0.004	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.543	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.543	1.000	-0.543	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.080	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	2.000	0.000	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.114	0.000	-0.114	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.379	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.340	0.600	-0.090	-0.350
predicted_R	0.743	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.743	2.000	0.257	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.520	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	0.514	0.000	1.486	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.086	0.000	-0.086	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.507	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.399	0.750	-0.149	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.914	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.914	1.000	1.086	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.229	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.943	-
predicted_AVG	0.305	-
predicted_BB	0.543	-
predicted_H	1.080	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.379	-
predicted_R	0.743	-
predicted_RBI	0.520	-
predicted_SLG	0.507	-
predicted_SO	0.914	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.319	0.090
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.963	0.020
predicted_AVG	0.305	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.518	-0.025
predicted_H	1.165	0.085
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.140	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.379	0.000
predicted_R	0.830	0.087
predicted_RBI	0.562	0.042
predicted_SLG	0.507	0.000
predicted_SO	0.752	-0.162

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.96), rates preserved: AVG=0.294 HR/AB=0.035

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.943

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	2.000	3.000	0.3333	0.3913	0.5714	0.3333	0.0476	0.1429	0.0952	0.1429
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	11.000	4.000	1.000	6.000	8.000	6.000	6.000	0.2973	0.3864	0.4865	0.2973	0.0270	0.1622	0.1622	0.1622
season	0.20	35	-	138.000	35.000	8.000	4.000	18.000	26.000	19.000	32.000	0.2536	0.3396	0.3986	0.2536	0.0290	0.1304	0.1377	0.2319

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3670
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.9740
predicted_AVG	0.3048
predicted_BB	0.5050
predicted_H	1.2110
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1460
predicted_OBP	0.3792
predicted_R	0.8760
predicted_RBI	0.5850
predicted_SLG	0.5071
predicted_SO	0.6650

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2290	0.3670	0.3187	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9430	3.9740	3.9632	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3050	0.3048	0.3049	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5430	0.5050	0.5183	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0800	1.2110	1.1652	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1460	0.1404	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3790	0.3792	0.3791	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7430	0.8760	0.8295	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5200	0.5850	0.5622	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5070	0.5071	0.5071	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9140	0.6650	0.7522	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.254

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260506_LAD@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	663656
playerID	663656
playerName	Kyle Tucker
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	LAD
teamID	14

Shohei Ohtani (660271) · BATTER · DH · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 37

All-history rows before 20260508: 37

System season_avg: 0.2480

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2481

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.206	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.189	1.000	-0.189	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.794	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.486	4.000	0.514	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.187	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.248	0.500	0.002	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.794	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.730	1.000	-0.730	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.650	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.865	2.000	0.135	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.162	0.000	-0.162	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.365	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.389	0.600	-0.139	-0.350
predicted_R	0.735	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.676	2.000	0.324	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.405	1.000	-0.405	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.135	1.000	-0.135	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.309	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.442	0.750	-0.192	-0.500
predicted_SO	1.088	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.206	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.794	-
predicted_AVG	0.187	-
predicted_BB	0.794	-
predicted_H	0.650	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.365	-
predicted_R	0.735	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.309	-
predicted_SO	1.088	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.227	0.021
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.729	-0.065
predicted_AVG	0.187	0.000
predicted_BB	0.870	0.076
predicted_H	0.677	0.027
predicted_HBP	0.147	-
predicted_HR	0.071	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.365	0.000
predicted_R	0.818	0.083
predicted_RBI	0.399	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.309	0.000
predicted_SO	0.962	-0.126

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.178 HR/AB=0.019

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, BvP AVG=0.250)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	4.000	0.1053	0.2917	0.1579	0.1053	0.0000	0.1053	0.2105	0.2105
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	9.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	10.000	11.000	9.000	0.2571	0.4468	0.4286	0.2571	0.0286	0.1143	0.3143	0.2571
season	0.20	34	-	129.000	32.000	7.000	6.000	15.000	25.000	27.000	37.000	0.2481	0.3889	0.4419	0.2481	0.0465	0.1163	0.2093	0.2868

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2380
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.6940
predicted_AVG	0.1870
predicted_BB	0.9110
predicted_H	0.6910
predicted_HBP	0.1470
predicted_HR	0.0710
predicted_OBP	0.3654
predicted_R	0.8620
predicted_RBI	0.4090
predicted_SLG	0.3094
predicted_SO	0.8940

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2060	0.2380	0.2268	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7940	3.6940	3.7290	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1870	0.1870	0.1870	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7940	0.9110	0.8700	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6500	0.6910	0.6766	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1470	0.1470	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0710	0.0706	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3650	0.3654	0.3653	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7350	0.8620	0.8175	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.4090	0.3988	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3090	0.3094	0.3093	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0880	0.8940	0.9619	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.248

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260506_LAD@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	660271
playerID	660271
playerName	Shohei Ohtani
pos	TWP
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	LAD
teamID	14

Freddie Freeman (518692) · BATTER · 1B · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 35

All-history rows before 20260508: 35

System season_avg: 0.2790

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2786

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.286	1.000	-0.286	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.029	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	2.000	0.000	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.309	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.279	0.500	-0.279	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.371	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.371	2.000	-0.371	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.114	1.000	-1.114	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.086	0.000	-0.086	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.372	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.344	0.750	-0.344	-0.750
predicted_R	0.371	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.371	1.000	-0.371	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.590	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.543	1.000	-0.543	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.433	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.429	1.000	-0.429	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.600	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.600	0.000	0.400	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.286	-
predicted_3B	0.029	-
predicted_AB	4.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.309	-
predicted_BB	0.371	-
predicted_H	1.200	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.372	-
predicted_R	0.371	-
predicted_RBI	0.590	-
predicted_SLG	0.433	-
predicted_SO	0.600	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.381	0.095
predicted_3B	0.014	-0.015
predicted_AB	4.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.309	0.000
predicted_BB	0.386	0.015
predicted_H	1.225	0.025
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.018	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.372	0.000
predicted_R	0.305	-0.066
predicted_RBI	0.602	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.433	0.000
predicted_SO	0.902	0.302

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.306 HR/AB=0.005

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, BvP AVG=0.333)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	7.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	0.3500	0.4091	0.5000	0.3500	0.0000	0.2000	0.1000	0.3500
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	11.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	3.000	4.000	9.000	0.2750	0.3409	0.3500	0.2750	0.0000	0.1000	0.1000	0.2250
season	0.20	35	-	140.000	39.000	10.000	1.000	3.000	19.000	13.000	13.000	21.000	0.2786	0.3442	0.4286	0.2786	0.0214	0.1357	0.0929	0.1500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.4320
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	4.0000
predicted_AVG	0.3095
predicted_BB	0.3940
predicted_H	1.2380
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0170
predicted_OBP	0.3723
predicted_R	0.2690
predicted_RBI	0.6090
predicted_SLG	0.4332
predicted_SO	1.0650

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2860	0.4320	0.3809	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0290	0.0060	0.0140	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0000	4.0000	4.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3090	0.3095	0.3093	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3710	0.3940	0.3860	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2000	1.2380	1.2247	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0170	0.0181	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3720	0.3723	0.3722	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3710	0.2690	0.3047	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5900	0.6090	0.6023	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4330	0.4332	0.4331	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6000	1.0650	0.9022	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.279

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260506_LAD@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	518692
playerID	518692
playerName	Freddie Freeman
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	LAD
teamID	14

Santiago Espinal (669289) · BATTER · 2B · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 6

All-history rows before 20260508: 6

System season_avg: 0.1580

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1579

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.167	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.167	2.000	-0.167	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.166	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.158	0.000	-0.158	0.000
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.430	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.166	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.158	0.000	-0.158	0.000
predicted_R	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.166	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.158	0.000	-0.158	0.000
predicted_SO	0.667	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.667	2.000	1.333	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.167	-
predicted_AVG	0.166	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.430	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.166	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.290	-
predicted_SLG	0.166	-
predicted_SO	0.667	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.235	0.068
predicted_AVG	0.166	0.000
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.504	0.074
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.166	0.000
predicted_R	0.352	0.019
predicted_RBI	0.337	0.047
predicted_SLG	0.166	0.000
predicted_SO	0.649	-0.018

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.24), rates preserved: AVG=0.156 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total RBI	Total R	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	0.1765	0.1765	0.1765	0.1765	0.1177	0.1765
last_10	0.35	6	-	19.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	0.1579	0.1579	0.1579	0.1579	0.1053	0.2105
season	0.20	6	-	19.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	0.1579	0.1579	0.1579	0.1579	0.1053	0.2105

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.2720
predicted_AVG	0.1663
predicted_BB	0.0000
predicted_H	0.5440
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.1663
predicted_R	0.3630
predicted_RBI	0.3630
predicted_SLG	0.1663
predicted_SO	0.6390

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1670	3.2720	3.2352	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1660	0.1663	0.1662	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4300	0.5440	0.5041	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1660	0.1663	0.1662	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.3630	0.3525	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2900	0.3630	0.3374	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1660	0.1663	0.1662	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6670	0.6390	0.6488	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.158

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260501_LAD@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	669289
playerID	669289
playerName	Santiago Espinal
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	LAD
teamID	14

Max Muncy (571970) · BATTER · 3B · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 34

All-history rows before 20260508: 34

System season_avg: 0.2880

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2881

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.147	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.147	0.000	-0.147	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.471	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.471	3.000	-0.471	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.271	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.288	0.333	-0.288	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.588	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.588	0.000	-0.588	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.800	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.265	0.000	-0.265	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.428	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.391	0.333	-0.391	-0.333
predicted_R	0.735	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.735	1.000	-0.735	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.382	0.000	-0.382	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.384	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.559	0.333	-0.559	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.971	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.971	2.000	-0.971	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.147	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.471	-
predicted_AVG	0.271	-
predicted_BB	0.588	-
predicted_H	0.800	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.428	-
predicted_R	0.735	-
predicted_RBI	0.290	-
predicted_SLG	0.384	-
predicted_SO	0.971	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.115	-0.032
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.226	-0.245
predicted_AVG	0.271	0.000
predicted_BB	0.763	0.175
predicted_H	0.825	0.025
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.082	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.428	0.000
predicted_R	0.557	-0.178
predicted_RBI	0.300	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.384	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.895	-0.076

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.47), rates preserved: AVG=0.238 HR/AB=0.024

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	5.000	0.2667	0.4500	0.2667	0.2667	0.0000	0.0667	0.3333	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	30.000	8.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	8.000	6.000	0.2667	0.4211	0.4333	0.2667	0.0333	0.1333	0.2667	0.2000
season	0.20	34	-	118.000	34.000	5.000	9.000	13.000	25.000	20.000	33.000	0.2881	0.3913	0.5593	0.2881	0.0763	0.1102	0.1695	0.2797

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0980
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.0940
predicted_AVG	0.2710
predicted_BB	0.8580
predicted_H	0.8380
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0830
predicted_OBP	0.4281
predicted_R	0.4610
predicted_RBI	0.3050
predicted_SLG	0.3835
predicted_SO	0.8540

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1470	0.0980	0.1152	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4710	3.0940	3.2260	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2710	0.2710	0.2710	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5880	0.8580	0.7635	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8000	0.8380	0.8247	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0830	0.0819	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4280	0.4281	0.4281	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7350	0.4610	0.5569	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2900	0.3050	0.2998	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3840	0.3835	0.3837	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9710	0.8540	0.8950	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.288

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260506_LAD@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	571970
playerID	571970
playerName	Max Muncy
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	LAD
teamID	14

Emmet Sheehan (686218) · PITCHER · Starter · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 6

All-history rows before 20260508: 6

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	5.000	5.000	-	Pitching_ER	3.000	4.000	2.000	1.000
predicted_IP	2.200	2.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.933	4.200	-2.733	-2.000
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_SO	6.000	8.000	-3.000	-5.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 2.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	27.200	14.000	27.000	7.000	30.000	5.000	4.5542	1.2289	0.5060	0.9759	0.2530	1.0843	0.1807
last_10	0.35	6	31.000	18.000	32.000	9.000	36.000	6.000	5.2258	1.3226	0.5806	1.0323	0.2903	1.1613	0.1935
season	0.20	6	31.000	18.000	32.000	9.000	36.000	6.000	5.2258	1.3226	0.5806	1.0323	0.2903	1.1613	0.1935

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.5000
predicted_ER	3.0000
predicted_ERA	4.9236
predicted_H	5.5210
predicted_HR	1.0300
predicted_IP	5.1000
predicted_SO	6.1780
predicted_WHIP	1.2804

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	1.5000	1.6750	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	5.0000	3.0000	3.7000	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.9236	4.9236	form_only
predicted_H	6.0000	5.5210	5.6886	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	2.0000	1.0300	1.3695	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	2.2000	5.1000	4.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	6.1780	5.0657	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2804	1.2804	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.2
H	6
R	5
ER	5
BB	2
SO	3
HR	2
BF	17
Pitches	77

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	1
Pitching_Batters Faced	22
Pitching_ER	4
Pitching_ERA	5.23
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	4
Pitching_H	8
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	4.2
Pitching_Pitches	97
Pitching_R	4
Pitching_SO	8
Pitching_Strikes	68
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260501_LAD@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	686218
playerID	686218
playerName	Emmet Sheehan
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	LAD
teamID	14

Alex Vesia (681911) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 15

All-history rows before 20260508: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.767	1.000	0.433	0.200
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.067	1.000	1.933	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	6.000	4.5000	1.2500	0.5000	0.5000	0.7500	1.5000
last_10	0.35	10	7.200	2.000	2.000	4.000	14.000	2.3478	0.7826	0.2609	0.2609	0.5217	1.8261
season	0.20	15	12.200	2.000	4.000	6.000	16.000	1.4211	0.7895	0.1579	0.3158	0.4737	1.2632

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4510
predicted_ER	0.2550
predicted_ERA	3.1309
predicted_H	0.2780
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	1.1490
predicted_WHIP	0.9943

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4510	0.2932	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2550	0.1658	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.1309	3.1309	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.2780	0.5307	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	0.2000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	1.1490	1.7968	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9943	0.9943	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	3
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.42
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_LAD@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	681911
playerID	681911
playerName	Alex Vesia
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAD
teamID	14

Blake Treinen (595014) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 14

All-history rows before 20260508: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.357	1.000	-0.357	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.686	1.000	0.314	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.857	0.000	0.143	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	2.000	6.000	0.000	6.000	1.000	4.1538	1.3846	0.4615	1.3846	0.0000	1.3846	0.2308
last_10	0.35	10	8.000	2.000	7.000	2.000	10.000	1.000	2.2500	1.1250	0.2500	0.8750	0.2500	1.2500	0.1250
season	0.20	13	11.000	2.000	9.000	3.000	12.000	1.000	1.6364	1.0909	0.1818	0.8182	0.2727	1.0909	0.0909

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1250
predicted_ER	0.2930
predicted_ERA	2.9840
predicted_H	0.9650
predicted_HR	0.1460
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1300
predicted_WHIP	1.2350

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1250	0.0813	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2930	0.1905	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.9840	2.9840	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.9650	0.9772	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1460	0.0949	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1300	1.0845	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2350	1.2350	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	4.09
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_LAD@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	595014
playerID	595014
playerName	Blake Treinen
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAD
teamID	14

Will Klein (694361) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 10

All-history rows before 20260508: 10

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.350	1.200	-0.350	-0.200
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.500	0.000	-1.500	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 10

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	7.000	4.000	9.000	2.000	6.000	5.1429	1.5714	0.5714	1.2857	0.2857	0.8571
last_10	0.35	10	14.200	5.000	15.000	5.000	15.000	3.0682	1.3636	0.3409	1.0227	0.3409	1.0227
season	0.20	10	14.200	5.000	15.000	5.000	15.000	3.0682	1.3636	0.3409	1.0227	0.3409	1.0227

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4210
predicted_ER	0.5930
predicted_ERA	4.0018
predicted_H	1.5210
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.2640
predicted_WHIP	1.4571

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.4210	0.6237	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5930	0.3855	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.0018	4.0018	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.5210	1.3386	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.1000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.2640	0.8216	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4571	1.4571	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	10
Season rows before report date	10
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	10
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	22

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	3.07
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.2
Pitching_Pitches	25
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	15
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_LAD@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	694361
playerID	694361
playerName	Will Klein
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAD
teamID	14

Tanner Scott (656945) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 17

All-history rows before 20260508: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.176	0.000	-0.176	0.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.847	1.000	-0.647	-0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.882	0.000	0.118	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	2.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	1.000	3.8571	0.8571	0.4286	0.6429	0.2143	1.2857	0.2143
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	2.000	4.000	2.000	7.000	1.000	1.8621	0.6207	0.2069	0.4138	0.2069	0.7241	0.1035
season	0.20	17	15.100	3.000	8.000	2.000	15.000	2.000	1.7609	0.6522	0.1956	0.5217	0.1304	0.9783	0.1304

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1950
predicted_ER	0.3040
predicted_ERA	2.7396
predicted_H	0.5380
predicted_HR	0.1590
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0280
predicted_WHIP	0.7334

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1950	0.1268	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3040	0.1976	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.7396	2.7396	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.5380	0.6997	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1590	0.1034	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0280	1.0182	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.7334	0.7334	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.76
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	9
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_LAD@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	656945
playerID	656945
playerName	Tanner Scott
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAD
teamID	14

Jack Dreyer (676263) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 16

All-history rows before 20260508: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.312	0.000	-0.312	0.000
predicted_IP	0.100	0.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.981	2.000	-0.881	-1.900
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.250	1.000	-0.250	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 0.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.100	0.000	5.000	0.000	7.000	0.000	0.0000	0.7895	0.0000	0.7895	0.0000	1.1053	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	12.000	3.000	8.000	2.000	13.000	1.000	2.2500	0.8333	0.2500	0.6667	0.1667	1.0833	0.0833
season	0.20	16	17.100	5.000	12.000	5.000	20.000	1.000	2.5962	0.9808	0.2885	0.6923	0.2885	1.1539	0.0577

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1470
predicted_ER	0.1840
predicted_ERA	1.3067
predicted_H	0.9210
predicted_HR	0.0520
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.4030
predicted_WHIP	0.8431

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1470	0.0955	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1840	0.1196	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.3067	1.3067	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9210	0.5987	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0520	0.0338	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	1.1000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.4030	1.2620	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.8431	0.8431	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.60
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	4
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	27
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	21
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_LAD@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	676263
playerID	676263
playerName	Jack Dreyer
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAD
teamID	14

Edgardo Henriquez (683618) · PITCHER · Reliever · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 12

All-history rows before 20260508: 12

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.008	2.000	0.192	-0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.917	1.000	0.083	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	2.000	3.000	3.000	3.000	0.000	3.3750	1.1250	0.3750	0.5625	0.5625	0.5625	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	4.000	7.000	5.000	9.000	1.000	3.4839	1.1613	0.3871	0.6774	0.4839	0.8710	0.0968
season	0.20	12	12.100	6.000	10.000	6.000	11.000	1.000	4.3784	1.2973	0.4865	0.8108	0.4865	0.8919	0.0811

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5200
predicted_ER	0.4020
predicted_ERA	3.6138
predicted_H	0.6520
predicted_HR	0.0500
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.7360
predicted_WHIP	1.1722

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5200	0.3380	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4020	0.2613	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.6138	3.6138	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.6520	0.7738	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0500	0.0325	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.0000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.7360	0.8284	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1722	1.1722	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.38
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	23
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	15
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_LAD@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	683618
playerID	683618
playerName	Edgardo Henriquez
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAD
teamID	14

20260508_CHC@TEX

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 4, "confidence": 0.7659427175843695, "home_win_probability": 0.2340572824156305, "away_win_probability": 0.7659427175843695, "predicted_score_text": "CHC 7 - 4 TEX", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to final winner probability with starter-quality caps.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 2, "predicted_score_text": "CHC 7 - 2 TEX", "confidence": 0.7659427175843695, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score", "final_prediction_synced": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 2, "score_text": "CHC 7 - 2 TEX", "winner": "CHC"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "CHC 7 - 4 TEX", "winner": "CHC"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 2, "total_run_delta": 2, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"}}

Away Team: CHC

Pete Crow-Armstrong (691718) · BATTER · CF · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 37

All-history rows before 20260508: 37

System season_avg: 0.2520

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2518

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.108	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.108	0.000	-0.108	0.000
predicted_3B	0.054	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.054	0.000	-0.054	0.000
predicted_AB	3.757	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.757	3.000	0.243	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.298	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.252	0.333	-0.002	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.297	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.297	1.000	-0.297	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.081	0.000	-0.081	0.000
predicted_H	0.940	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.946	1.000	0.054	0.000
predicted_HR	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.108	0.000	-0.108	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.372	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.320	0.500	-0.070	-0.250
predicted_R	0.649	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.649	1.000	0.351	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.590	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.432	1.000	-0.432	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.216	1.000	-0.216	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.593	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.396	0.333	-0.146	-0.083
predicted_SO	1.054	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.054	0.000	-0.054	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.108	-
predicted_3B	0.054	-
predicted_AB	3.757	-
predicted_AVG	0.298	-
predicted_BB	0.297	-
predicted_H	0.940	-
predicted_HR	0.190	-
predicted_OBP	0.372	-
predicted_R	0.649	-
predicted_RBI	0.590	-
predicted_SLG	0.593	-
predicted_SO	1.054	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.133	0.025
predicted_3B	0.108	0.054
predicted_AB	3.675	-0.082
predicted_AVG	0.298	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.292	-0.005
predicted_H	1.032	0.092
predicted_HBP	0.142	-
predicted_HR	0.208	0.018
predicted_OBP	0.372	0.000
predicted_R	0.728	0.079
predicted_RBI	0.645	0.055
predicted_SLG	0.593	0.000
predicted_SO	0.780	-0.274

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.76), rates preserved: AVG=0.275 HR/AB=0.055

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	0.3333	0.4000	0.6667	0.3333	0.0556	0.1667	0.0556	0.1111
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	10.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	9.000	8.000	4.000	7.000	0.2778	0.3659	0.6111	0.2778	0.0833	0.2500	0.1111	0.1944
season	0.20	37	-	139.000	35.000	4.000	2.000	4.000	16.000	24.000	11.000	39.000	0.2518	0.3203	0.3957	0.2518	0.0288	0.1151	0.0791	0.2806

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1470
predicted_3B	0.1370
predicted_AB	3.6310
predicted_AVG	0.2976
predicted_BB	0.2890
predicted_H	1.0810
predicted_HBP	0.1420
predicted_HR	0.2180
predicted_OBP	0.3721
predicted_R	0.7710
predicted_RBI	0.6740
predicted_SLG	0.5930
predicted_SO	0.6320

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1080	0.1470	0.1333	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0540	0.1370	0.1080	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7570	3.6310	3.6751	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2980	0.2976	0.2977	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2970	0.2890	0.2918	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9400	1.0810	1.0316	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1420	0.1420	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1900	0.2180	0.2082	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3720	0.3721	0.3721	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6490	0.7710	0.7283	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5900	0.6740	0.6446	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5930	0.5930	0.5930	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0540	0.6320	0.7797	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.252

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260507_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	691718
playerID	691718
playerName	Pete Crow-Armstrong
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	CHC
teamID	5

Michael Busch (683737) · BATTER · 1B · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 36

All-history rows before 20260508: 36

System season_avg: 0.2260

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2263

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.194	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.194	0.000	0.806	1.000
predicted_3B	0.028	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_AB	3.806	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.806	4.000	0.194	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.331	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.226	0.250	0.274	0.250
predicted_BB	0.583	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.583	0.000	0.417	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.130	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.861	1.000	1.139	1.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.454	0.600	0.600	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.250	0.267	0.350
predicted_R	0.444	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.444	0.000	0.556	1.000
predicted_RBI	1.040	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	0.528	0.000	1.472	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.596	0.750	0.750	Hitting_SLG	0.358	0.250	0.392	0.500
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.194	-
predicted_3B	0.028	-
predicted_AB	3.806	-
predicted_AVG	0.331	-
predicted_BB	0.583	-
predicted_H	1.130	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.454	-
predicted_R	0.444	-
predicted_RBI	1.040	-
predicted_SLG	0.596	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.220	0.026
predicted_3B	0.096	0.068
predicted_AB	3.618	-0.188
predicted_AVG	0.331	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.782	0.200
predicted_H	1.151	0.021
predicted_HBP	0.045	-
predicted_HR	0.143	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.454	-0.000
predicted_R	0.399	-0.045
predicted_RBI	1.056	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.596	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.964	-0.036

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.81), rates preserved: AVG=0.302 HR/AB=0.037

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.806

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	2.000	5.000	4.000	0.4118	0.5217	0.7647	0.4118	0.0588	0.4118	0.2941	0.2353
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	10.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	9.000	3.000	9.000	11.000	0.2857	0.4348	0.5143	0.2857	0.0286	0.2571	0.2571	0.3143
season	0.20	36	-	137.000	31.000	7.000	1.000	3.000	19.000	16.000	21.000	36.000	0.2263	0.3333	0.3577	0.2263	0.0219	0.1387	0.1533	0.2628

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2340
predicted_3B	0.1330
predicted_AB	3.5160
predicted_AVG	0.3306
predicted_BB	0.8900
predicted_H	1.1620
predicted_HBP	0.0450
predicted_HR	0.1440
predicted_OBP	0.4536
predicted_R	0.3740
predicted_RBI	1.0650
predicted_SLG	0.5957
predicted_SO	0.9440

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1940	0.2340	0.2200	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0280	0.1330	0.0963	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8060	3.5160	3.6175	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3310	0.3306	0.3307	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5830	0.8900	0.7825	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1300	1.1620	1.1508	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0450	0.0450	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1440	0.1426	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4540	0.4536	0.4537	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4440	0.3740	0.3985	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	1.0400	1.0650	1.0562	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5960	0.5957	0.5958	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9440	0.9636	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.226

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260507_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	683737
playerID	683737
playerName	Michael Busch
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	CHC
teamID	5

Seiya Suzuki (673548) · BATTER · RF · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 22

All-history rows before 20260508: 22

System season_avg: 0.3100

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3095

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.136	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.136	1.000	-0.136	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.818	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.818	4.000	-0.818	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.291	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.310	0.250	-0.310	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.591	2.000	2.000	Hitting_BB	0.591	1.000	1.409	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.182	1.000	-1.182	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.273	0.000	-0.273	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.374	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.410	0.400	-0.010	0.000
predicted_R	0.773	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.773	1.000	0.227	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.780	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.636	1.000	-0.636	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.561	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.560	0.500	-0.560	-0.500
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.136	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.818	-
predicted_AVG	0.291	-
predicted_BB	0.591	-
predicted_H	1.060	-
predicted_HR	0.240	-
predicted_OBP	0.374	-
predicted_R	0.773	-
predicted_RBI	0.780	-
predicted_SLG	0.561	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.228	0.092
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.809	-0.009
predicted_AVG	0.291	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.573	-0.018
predicted_H	1.090	0.030
predicted_HBP	0.018	-
predicted_HR	0.246	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.374	-0.000
predicted_R	0.705	-0.068
predicted_RBI	0.807	0.027
predicted_SLG	0.561	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.942	-0.058

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.82), rates preserved: AVG=0.285 HR/AB=0.065

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	2.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 3.818

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	5.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	0.2632	0.3478	0.5263	0.2632	0.0526	0.2632	0.1579	0.2105
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	12.000	2.000	3.000	7.000	7.000	5.000	10.000	0.3158	0.3864	0.6053	0.3158	0.0790	0.1842	0.1316	0.2632
season	0.20	22	-	84.000	26.000	3.000	6.000	14.000	17.000	13.000	22.000	0.3095	0.4100	0.5595	0.3095	0.0714	0.1667	0.1548	0.2619

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2770
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.8040
predicted_AVG	0.2909
predicted_BB	0.5630
predicted_H	1.1060
predicted_HBP	0.0180
predicted_HR	0.2500
predicted_OBP	0.3738
predicted_R	0.6690
predicted_RBI	0.8220
predicted_SLG	0.5606
predicted_SO	0.9100

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1360	0.2770	0.2277	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8180	3.8040	3.8089	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2910	0.2909	0.2909	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5910	0.5630	0.5728	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0600	1.1060	1.0899	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0180	0.0180	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2400	0.2500	0.2465	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3740	0.3738	0.3739	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7730	0.6690	0.7054	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7800	0.8220	0.8073	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5610	0.5606	0.5607	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9100	0.9415	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.31

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	1
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260506_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	673548
playerID	673548
playerName	Seiya Suzuki
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	CHC
teamID	5

Ian Happ (664023) · BATTER · LF · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 36

All-history rows before 20260508: 36

System season_avg: 0.2430

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2426

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_3B	0.028	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_AB	3.778	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.778	3.000	0.222	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.241	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.243	0.000	0.257	0.500
predicted_BB	0.750	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.750	1.000	0.250	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.870	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.917	0.000	1.083	2.000
predicted_HR	0.210	2.000	2.000	Hitting_HR	0.250	0.000	1.750	2.000
predicted_OBP	0.407	0.600	0.600	Hitting_OBP	0.376	0.250	0.224	0.350
predicted_R	0.806	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.806	1.000	0.194	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	3.000	3.000	Hitting_RBI	0.472	0.000	2.528	3.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.471	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SLG	0.500	0.000	1.500	2.000
predicted_SO	1.361	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.361	2.000	-1.361	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.028	-
predicted_AB	3.778	-
predicted_AVG	0.241	-
predicted_BB	0.750	-
predicted_H	0.870	-
predicted_HR	0.210	-
predicted_OBP	0.407	-
predicted_R	0.806	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.471	-
predicted_SO	1.361	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.127	-0.040
predicted_3B	0.037	0.009
predicted_AB	3.640	-0.138
predicted_AVG	0.241	0.000
predicted_BB	0.883	0.133
predicted_H	0.864	-0.006
predicted_HBP	0.047	-
predicted_HR	0.210	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.407	-0.000
predicted_R	0.991	0.185
predicted_RBI	0.379	-0.001
predicted_SLG	0.471	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.475	0.114

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.78), rates preserved: AVG=0.229 HR/AB=0.056

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	2.000	2.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	3.000	3.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	5.000	9.000	0.2222	0.3913	0.3889	0.2222	0.0556	0.1111	0.2778	0.5000
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	9.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	11.000	10.000	13.000	0.2647	0.4444	0.5588	0.2647	0.0588	0.0882	0.2941	0.3824
season	0.20	36	-	136.000	33.000	6.000	1.000	9.000	17.000	29.000	27.000	49.000	0.2426	0.3758	0.5000	0.2427	0.0662	0.1250	0.1985	0.3603

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1050
predicted_3B	0.0420
predicted_AB	3.5660
predicted_AVG	0.2412
predicted_BB	0.9540
predicted_H	0.8600
predicted_HBP	0.0470
predicted_HR	0.2100
predicted_OBP	0.4068
predicted_R	1.0910
predicted_RBI	0.3780
predicted_SLG	0.4706
predicted_SO	1.5360

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.1050	0.1267	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0280	0.0420	0.0371	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7780	3.5660	3.6402	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2410	0.2412	0.2411	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7500	0.9540	0.8826	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8700	0.8600	0.8635	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0470	0.0470	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2100	0.2100	0.2100	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4070	0.4068	0.4069	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8060	1.0910	0.9913	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.3780	0.3787	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4710	0.4706	0.4707	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3610	1.5360	1.4748	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	2
R	1
RBI	3
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.243

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260507_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	664023
playerID	664023
playerName	Ian Happ
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	CHC
teamID	5

Carson Kelly (608348) · BATTER · C · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 23

All-history rows before 20260508: 23

System season_avg: 0.2990

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2989

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.174	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.174	0.000	-0.174	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.783	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.783	4.000	1.217	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.291	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.299	0.250	-0.299	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.478	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.478	0.000	-0.478	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.990	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.130	1.000	-1.130	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.346	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.384	0.250	-0.384	-0.250
predicted_R	0.565	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.565	1.000	-0.565	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.391	0.000	-0.391	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.316	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.379	0.250	-0.379	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.739	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.739	1.000	0.261	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.174	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.783	-
predicted_AVG	0.291	-
predicted_BB	0.478	-
predicted_H	0.990	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.346	-
predicted_R	0.565	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.316	-
predicted_SO	0.739	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.107	-0.067
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.896	0.113
predicted_AVG	0.291	0.000
predicted_BB	0.358	-0.120
predicted_H	1.095	0.105
predicted_HBP	0.044	-
predicted_HR	0.009	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.346	0.000
predicted_R	0.560	-0.004
predicted_RBI	0.431	0.041
predicted_SLG	0.316	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.735	-0.004

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.90), rates preserved: AVG=0.281 HR/AB=0.002

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 23

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	0.3000	0.3333	0.3000	0.3000	0.0000	0.1500	0.0500	0.1500
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	11.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	5.000	3.000	9.000	0.2750	0.3409	0.3000	0.2750	0.0000	0.0750	0.0750	0.2250
season	0.20	23	-	87.000	26.000	4.000	1.000	9.000	13.000	11.000	17.000	0.2989	0.3838	0.3793	0.2989	0.0115	0.1035	0.1264	0.1954

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0710
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.9570
predicted_AVG	0.2910
predicted_BB	0.2930
predicted_H	1.1510
predicted_HBP	0.0440
predicted_HR	0.0090
predicted_OBP	0.3461
predicted_R	0.5580
predicted_RBI	0.4530
predicted_SLG	0.3159
predicted_SO	0.7330

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1740	0.0710	0.1070	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7830	3.9570	3.8961	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2910	0.2910	0.2910	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4780	0.2930	0.3578	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9900	1.1510	1.0947	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0440	0.0440	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0090	0.0094	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3460	0.3461	0.3461	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5650	0.5580	0.5605	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.4530	0.4310	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3160	0.3159	0.3159	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7390	0.7330	0.7351	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	23
Season rows before report date	23
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	23
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.299

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260506_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	608348
playerID	608348
playerName	Carson Kelly
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	CHC
teamID	5

Dansby Swanson (621020) · BATTER · SS · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 36

All-history rows before 20260508: 36

System season_avg: 0.1950

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1951

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.028	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_3B	0.028	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_AB	3.417	2.000	2.000	Hitting_AB	3.417	3.000	-1.417	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.143	1.000	1.000	Hitting_AVG	0.195	0.000	0.805	1.000
predicted_BB	0.611	2.000	2.000	Hitting_BB	0.611	1.000	1.389	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.400	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.667	0.000	1.333	2.000
predicted_HR	0.030	2.000	2.000	Hitting_HR	0.167	0.000	1.833	2.000
predicted_OBP	0.228	1.000	1.000	Hitting_OBP	0.315	0.250	0.685	0.750
predicted_R	0.722	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.722	1.000	0.278	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.230	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	0.639	1.000	1.361	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.177	4.000	4.000	Hitting_SLG	0.366	0.000	3.634	4.000
predicted_SO	0.861	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.861	0.000	-0.861	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.028	-
predicted_3B	0.028	-
predicted_AB	3.417	-
predicted_AVG	0.143	-
predicted_BB	0.611	-
predicted_H	0.400	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.228	-
predicted_R	0.722	-
predicted_RBI	0.230	-
predicted_SLG	0.177	-
predicted_SO	0.861	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.014	-0.014
predicted_3B	0.014	-0.014
predicted_AB	3.593	0.176
predicted_AVG	0.143	0.000
predicted_BB	0.481	-0.130
predicted_H	0.483	0.083
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.034	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.228	-0.000
predicted_R	0.558	-0.164
predicted_RBI	0.272	0.042
predicted_SLG	0.177	0.000
predicted_SO	0.728	-0.133

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.59), rates preserved: AVG=0.134 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-2.000
BB	2.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	2.000	2.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	0.1053	0.1905	0.1053	0.1053	0.0000	0.0526	0.1053	0.1579
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	6.000	0.1622	0.2250	0.1622	0.1622	0.0000	0.0541	0.0811	0.1622
season	0.20	36	-	123.000	24.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	23.000	26.000	22.000	31.000	0.1951	0.3154	0.3659	0.1951	0.0488	0.1870	0.1789	0.2520

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0060
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.6880
predicted_AVG	0.1432
predicted_BB	0.4110
predicted_H	0.5280
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0360
predicted_OBP	0.2276
predicted_R	0.4700
predicted_RBI	0.2950
predicted_SLG	0.1773
predicted_SO	0.6570

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0280	0.0060	0.0137	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0280	0.0060	0.0137	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4170	3.6880	3.5932	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1430	0.1432	0.1431	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6110	0.4110	0.4810	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4000	0.5280	0.4832	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0360	0.0339	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2280	0.2276	0.2277	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7220	0.4700	0.5582	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2300	0.2950	0.2722	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1770	0.1773	0.1772	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8610	0.6570	0.7284	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	2
R	1
RBI	2
BB	2
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.195

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260507_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	621020
playerID	621020
playerName	Dansby Swanson
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	CHC
teamID	5

Michael Conforto (624424) · BATTER · DH · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 10

All-history rows before 20260508: 10

System season_avg: 0.3600

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3600

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.300	1.000	-0.300	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.778	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.500	3.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.367	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.360	1.000	-0.360	-1.000
predicted_BB	0.778	2.000	2.000	Hitting_BB	0.800	1.000	1.200	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.890	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.900	3.000	-0.900	-3.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.100	1.000	-0.100	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.488	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.500	1.000	-0.100	-0.600
predicted_R	0.778	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.700	2.000	0.300	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.540	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.600	2.000	-0.600	-2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.667	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.600	2.333	-0.600	-2.333
predicted_SO	0.667	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.600	0.000	-0.600	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.333	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.778	-
predicted_AVG	0.367	-
predicted_BB	0.778	-
predicted_H	0.890	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.488	-
predicted_R	0.778	-
predicted_RBI	0.540	-
predicted_SLG	0.667	-
predicted_SO	0.667	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.406	0.073
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.901	0.123
predicted_AVG	0.367	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.732	-0.046
predicted_H	1.019	0.129
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.139	0.019
predicted_OBP	0.488	0.000
predicted_R	0.895	0.117
predicted_RBI	0.618	0.078
predicted_SLG	0.667	0.000
predicted_SO	0.651	-0.016

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.90), rates preserved: AVG=0.351 HR/AB=0.048

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	2.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	6.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	6.000	3.000	3.000	0.3750	0.4737	0.7500	0.3750	0.0625	0.2500	0.1875	0.1875
last_10	0.35	9	-	25.000	9.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	7.000	7.000	6.000	0.3600	0.5000	0.6000	0.3600	0.0400	0.2000	0.2800	0.2400
season	0.20	9	-	25.000	9.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	7.000	7.000	6.000	0.3600	0.5000	0.6000	0.3600	0.0400	0.2000	0.2800	0.2400

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.4460
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.9680
predicted_AVG	0.3668
predicted_BB	0.7070
predicted_H	1.0880
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1490
predicted_OBP	0.4882
predicted_R	0.9580
predicted_RBI	0.6600
predicted_SLG	0.6675
predicted_SO	0.6420

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3330	0.4460	0.4064	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.7780	2.9680	2.9015	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3670	0.3668	0.3669	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7780	0.7070	0.7319	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8900	1.0880	1.0187	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1490	0.1389	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4880	0.4882	0.4881	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7780	0.9580	0.8950	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5400	0.6600	0.6180	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6670	0.6675	0.6673	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6670	0.6420	0.6507	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	10
Season rows before report date	10
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.36

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	1.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	7
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260507_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	624424
playerID	624424
playerName	Michael Conforto
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	CHC
teamID	5

Alex Bregman (608324) · BATTER · 3B · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 37

All-history rows before 20260508: 37

System season_avg: 0.2300

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2297

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.135	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.135	0.000	-0.135	0.000
predicted_3B	0.027	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	3.000	1.000	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.230	0.000	-0.230	0.000
predicted_BB	0.595	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.595	1.000	-0.595	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.660	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.919	0.000	-0.919	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.081	0.000	-0.081	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.337	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.331	0.250	-0.331	-0.250
predicted_R	0.378	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.378	1.000	-0.378	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.324	0.000	-0.324	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.236	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.338	0.000	-0.338	0.000
predicted_SO	0.703	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.703	0.000	0.297	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.135	-
predicted_3B	0.027	-
predicted_AB	4.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.170	-
predicted_BB	0.595	-
predicted_H	0.660	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.337	-
predicted_R	0.378	-
predicted_RBI	0.240	-
predicted_SLG	0.236	-
predicted_SO	0.703	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.169	0.034
predicted_3B	0.013	-0.014
predicted_AB	3.792	-0.208
predicted_AVG	0.170	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.787	0.192
predicted_H	0.637	-0.023
predicted_HBP	0.041	-
predicted_HR	0.017	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.337	-0.000
predicted_R	0.556	0.178
predicted_RBI	0.229	-0.011
predicted_SLG	0.236	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.649	-0.054

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.159 HR/AB=0.004

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	5.000	3.000	0.1667	0.3478	0.2222	0.1667	0.0000	0.0556	0.2778	0.1667
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	6.000	9.000	6.000	0.1389	0.3261	0.1944	0.1389	0.0000	0.0556	0.2500	0.1667
season	0.20	37	-	148.000	34.000	5.000	1.000	3.000	12.000	14.000	22.000	26.000	0.2297	0.3314	0.3378	0.2297	0.0203	0.0811	0.1487	0.1757

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1880
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.6800
predicted_AVG	0.1696
predicted_BB	0.8910
predicted_H	0.6240
predicted_HBP	0.0410
predicted_HR	0.0150
predicted_OBP	0.3369
predicted_R	0.6520
predicted_RBI	0.2230
predicted_SLG	0.2356
predicted_SO	0.6200

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1350	0.1880	0.1694	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0270	0.0050	0.0127	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0000	3.6800	3.7920	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1700	0.1696	0.1697	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5950	0.8910	0.7874	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6600	0.6240	0.6366	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0410	0.0410	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0150	0.0168	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3370	0.3369	0.3369	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3780	0.6520	0.5561	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2400	0.2230	0.2289	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2360	0.2356	0.2357	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7030	0.6200	0.6491	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260507_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	608324
playerID	608324
playerName	Alex Bregman
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	CHC
teamID	5

Nico Hoerner (663538) · BATTER · 2B · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 36

All-history rows before 20260508: 36

System season_avg: 0.2840

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2838

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.278	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.278	1.000	-0.278	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.120	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	4.111	4.000	0.889	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.249	0.200	0.200	Hitting_AVG	0.284	0.250	-0.084	-0.050
predicted_BB	0.444	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.444	1.000	-0.444	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.030	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.167	1.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.333	0.200	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.363	0.400	-0.163	-0.200
predicted_R	0.528	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.528	1.000	0.472	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.510	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.778	1.000	-0.778	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.194	0.000	-0.194	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.347	0.200	0.200	Hitting_SLG	0.432	0.500	-0.232	-0.300
predicted_SO	0.389	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.389	0.000	-0.389	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.278	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.120	-
predicted_AVG	0.249	-
predicted_BB	0.444	-
predicted_H	1.030	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.333	-
predicted_R	0.528	-
predicted_RBI	0.510	-
predicted_SLG	0.347	-
predicted_SO	0.389	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.318	0.040
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.138	0.018
predicted_AVG	0.249	0.000
predicted_BB	0.502	0.058
predicted_H	1.033	0.003
predicted_HBP	0.058	-
predicted_HR	0.021	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.333	0.000
predicted_R	0.496	-0.032
predicted_RBI	0.511	0.001
predicted_SLG	0.347	0.000
predicted_SO	0.233	-0.156

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.14), rates preserved: AVG=0.250 HR/AB=0.005

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 4.120

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	0.000	0.2381	0.3200	0.3333	0.2381	0.0000	0.0952	0.1429	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	-	41.000	10.000	3.000	0.000	5.000	3.000	5.000	2.000	0.2439	0.3333	0.3171	0.2439	0.0000	0.1220	0.1220	0.0488
season	0.20	36	-	148.000	42.000	10.000	4.000	28.000	19.000	16.000	14.000	0.2838	0.3626	0.4324	0.2838	0.0270	0.1892	0.1081	0.0946

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3400
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.1470
predicted_AVG	0.2493
predicted_BB	0.5330
predicted_H	1.0340
predicted_HBP	0.0580
predicted_HR	0.0220
predicted_OBP	0.3332
predicted_R	0.4790
predicted_RBI	0.5120
predicted_SLG	0.3474
predicted_SO	0.1490

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2780	0.3400	0.3183	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1200	4.1470	4.1376	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2490	0.2493	0.2492	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4440	0.5330	0.5019	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0300	1.0340	1.0326	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0580	0.0580	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0220	0.0213	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3330	0.3332	0.3331	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5280	0.4790	0.4961	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5100	0.5120	0.5113	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3470	0.3474	0.3473	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3890	0.1490	0.2330	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.284

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260507_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	663538
playerID	663538
playerName	Nico Hoerner
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	CHC
teamID	5

Ben Brown (676962) · PITCHER · Starter · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 12

All-history rows before 20260508: 12

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.500	1.000	2.500	2.000
predicted_IP	4.200	4.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	2.042	1.000	2.158	3.200
predicted_SO	7.000	7.000	-	Pitching_SO	2.000	1.000	5.000	6.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 4.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	9.000	1.000	6.000	2.000	9.000	0.000	1.0000	0.8889	0.1111	0.6667	0.2222	1.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	19.000	4.000	14.000	6.000	16.000	0.000	1.8947	1.0526	0.2105	0.7368	0.3158	0.8421	0.0000
season	0.20	12	25.200	6.000	18.000	8.000	24.000	1.000	2.1039	1.0130	0.2338	0.7013	0.3117	0.9351	0.0390

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5050
predicted_ER	0.3150
predicted_ERA	1.5339
predicted_H	1.2920
predicted_HR	0.0140
predicted_IP	2.0000
predicted_SO	1.7240
predicted_WHIP	0.9710

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.5050	1.0282	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	0.3150	1.2547	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.5339	1.5339	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	1.2920	2.2398	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	2.0000	0.0140	0.7091	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.2000	2.0000	3.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	7.0000	1.7240	3.5706	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9710	0.9710	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.2
H	4
R	3
ER	3
BB	2
SO	7
HR	2
BF	24
Pitches	103

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	2.10
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	25
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	676962
playerID	676962
playerName	Ben Brown
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHC
teamID	5

Daniel Palencia (694037) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 7

All-history rows before 20260508: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_IP	2.100	2.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.871	0.100	1.229	2.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.857	1.000	1.143	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 2.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	WHIP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	1.000	2.000	4.000	0.6923	0.2308	0.4615	0.9231
last_10	0.35	7	6.100	4.000	2.000	6.000	0.9474	0.6316	0.3158	0.9474
season	0.20	7	6.100	4.000	2.000	6.000	0.9474	0.6316	0.3158	0.9474

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3810
predicted_ER	0.0000
predicted_ERA	0.0000
predicted_H	0.4510
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9360
predicted_WHIP	0.8326

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3810	0.2477	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.4510	0.2932	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	2.1000	1.0000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.9360	1.3084	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.8326	0.8326	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	1
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.00
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	3
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	7
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	4
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	694037
playerID	694037
playerName	Daniel Palencia
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHC
teamID	5

Jacob Webb (657097) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 16

All-history rows before 20260508: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.812	1.200	0.188	-0.200
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.062	1.000	-0.062	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	1.000	1.5000	0.6667	0.1667	0.3333	0.3333	1.1667	0.1667
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	3.000	10.000	2.000	11.000	1.000	2.7931	1.2414	0.3103	1.0345	0.2069	1.1379	0.1035
season	0.20	16	15.100	6.000	16.000	7.000	17.000	3.000	3.5217	1.5000	0.3913	1.0435	0.4565	1.1087	0.1956

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3610
predicted_ER	0.3010
predicted_ERA	2.3569
predicted_H	0.8290
predicted_HR	0.1730
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.3170
predicted_WHIP	1.0345

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3610	0.2346	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3010	0.1956	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.3569	2.3569	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8290	0.5388	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1730	0.1124	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.3170	1.2060	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0345	1.0345	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	10

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.52
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	4
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.2
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	657097
playerID	657097
playerName	Jacob Webb
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHC
teamID	5

Phil Maton (664208) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 10

All-history rows before 20260508: 10

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.800	0.000	0.200	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.670	1.000	0.330	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.100	1.000	-0.100	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 10

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	2.000	4.000	1.000	6.000	0.000	4.1538	1.1538	0.4615	0.9231	0.2308	1.3846	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.100	8.000	10.000	5.000	11.000	1.000	8.6400	1.8000	0.9600	1.2000	0.6000	1.3200	0.1200
season	0.20	10	8.100	8.000	10.000	5.000	11.000	1.000	8.6400	1.8000	0.9600	1.2000	0.6000	1.3200	0.1200

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3540
predicted_ER	0.6010
predicted_ERA	6.6212
predicted_H	0.8780
predicted_HR	0.0540
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	1.1020
predicted_WHIP	1.5092

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3540	0.2301	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.6010	0.7407	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	6.6212	6.6212	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.8780	0.9207	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0540	0.0351	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1020	1.0663	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5092	1.5092	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	10
Season rows before report date	10
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	10
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	8.64
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	664208
playerID	664208
playerName	Phil Maton
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHC
teamID	5

Home Team: TEX

Ezequiel Duran (677649) · BATTER · 2B · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 23

All-history rows before 20260508: 23

System season_avg: 0.3010

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3014

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.261	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.261	0.000	0.739	1.000
predicted_3B	0.043	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_AB	3.174	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.174	3.000	-0.174	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.358	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.301	0.333	0.032	0.000
predicted_BB	0.478	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.478	2.000	0.522	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.043	1.000	-0.043	-1.000
predicted_H	1.100	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.957	1.000	0.043	0.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.087	1.000	-0.087	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.465	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.388	0.600	0.112	-0.100
predicted_R	0.522	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.522	1.000	0.478	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.670	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.478	2.000	0.522	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.174	0.000	-0.174	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.672	0.667	0.667	Hitting_SLG	0.493	1.333	0.174	-0.667
predicted_SO	0.609	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.609	1.000	1.391	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.261	-
predicted_3B	0.043	-
predicted_AB	3.174	-
predicted_AVG	0.358	-
predicted_BB	0.478	-
predicted_H	1.100	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.465	-
predicted_R	0.522	-
predicted_RBI	0.670	-
predicted_SLG	0.672	-
predicted_SO	0.609	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.310	0.049
predicted_3B	0.101	0.058
predicted_AB	3.223	0.049
predicted_AVG	0.358	0.000
predicted_BB	0.678	0.200
predicted_H	1.142	0.042
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.137	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.465	0.000
predicted_R	0.619	0.097
predicted_RBI	0.697	0.027
predicted_SLG	0.672	0.000
predicted_SO	0.581	-0.028

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.22), rates preserved: AVG=0.354 HR/AB=0.043

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 23

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	4.000	5.000	3.000	0.4118	0.5217	0.8235	0.4118	0.0588	0.2941	0.2941	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	-	31.000	10.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	6.000	7.000	5.000	0.3226	0.4359	0.5806	0.3226	0.0323	0.1613	0.2258	0.1613
season	0.20	23	-	73.000	22.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	11.000	12.000	11.000	14.000	0.3014	0.3882	0.4932	0.3014	0.0274	0.1507	0.1507	0.1918

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3360
predicted_3B	0.1320
predicted_AB	3.2500
predicted_AVG	0.3585
predicted_BB	0.7850
predicted_H	1.1650
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1410
predicted_OBP	0.4650
predicted_R	0.6710
predicted_RBI	0.7120
predicted_SLG	0.6724
predicted_SO	0.5660

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2610	0.3360	0.3098	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0430	0.1320	0.1008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1740	3.2500	3.2234	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3580	0.3585	0.3583	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4780	0.7850	0.6776	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1000	1.1650	1.1423	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1410	0.1371	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4650	0.4650	0.4650	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5220	0.6710	0.6189	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6700	0.7120	0.6973	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6720	0.6724	0.6723	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6090	0.5660	0.5810	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	23
Season rows before report date	23
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	23
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.301

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	1
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF-2B
gameID	20260507_TEX@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	677649
playerID	677649
playerName	Ezequiel Duran
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	TEX
teamID	28

Danny Jansen (643376) · BATTER · C · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 23

All-history rows before 20260508: 23

System season_avg: 0.2080

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2078

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.174	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.174	0.000	-0.174	0.000
predicted_3B	0.043	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_AB	3.348	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.348	3.000	-0.348	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.208	0.333	-0.208	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.348	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.348	1.000	-0.348	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_H	0.520	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.696	1.000	-0.696	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.087	0.000	-0.087	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.299	0.500	-0.299	-0.500
predicted_R	0.261	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.261	0.000	-0.261	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.348	0.000	-0.348	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.441	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.364	0.333	-0.364	-0.333
predicted_SO	1.130	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.130	0.000	-0.130	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.174	-
predicted_3B	0.043	-
predicted_AB	3.348	-
predicted_AVG	0.190	-
predicted_BB	0.348	-
predicted_H	0.520	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.333	-
predicted_R	0.261	-
predicted_RBI	0.290	-
predicted_SLG	0.441	-
predicted_SO	1.130	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.105	-0.069
predicted_3B	0.103	0.060
predicted_AB	3.167	-0.181
predicted_AVG	0.190	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.436	0.088
predicted_H	0.561	0.041
predicted_HBP	0.180	-
predicted_HR	0.139	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.333	-0.000
predicted_R	0.312	0.051
predicted_RBI	0.309	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.441	0.000
predicted_SO	1.026	-0.104

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.35), rates preserved: AVG=0.168 HR/AB=0.042

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 23

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	0.2000	0.3684	0.5333	0.2000	0.0667	0.1333	0.2000	0.2667
last_10	0.35	10	-	30.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	11.000	0.1667	0.3056	0.3667	0.1667	0.0333	0.0667	0.1333	0.3667
season	0.20	23	-	77.000	16.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	8.000	6.000	8.000	26.000	0.2078	0.2989	0.3636	0.2078	0.0260	0.1039	0.1039	0.3377

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0680
predicted_3B	0.1360
predicted_AB	3.0700
predicted_AVG	0.1899
predicted_BB	0.4830
predicted_H	0.5830
predicted_HBP	0.1800
predicted_HR	0.1440
predicted_OBP	0.3325
predicted_R	0.3390
predicted_RBI	0.3200
predicted_SLG	0.4411
predicted_SO	0.9700

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1740	0.0680	0.1051	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0430	0.1360	0.1035	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3480	3.0700	3.1673	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1900	0.1899	0.1899	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3480	0.4830	0.4357	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5200	0.5830	0.5610	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1800	0.1800	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1440	0.1391	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3330	0.3325	0.3327	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2610	0.3390	0.3117	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2900	0.3200	0.3095	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4410	0.4411	0.4411	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1300	0.9700	1.0260	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	23
Season rows before report date	23
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	23
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.208

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260507_TEX@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	643376
playerID	643376
playerName	Danny Jansen
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	TEX
teamID	28

Evan Carter (694497) · BATTER · CF · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 32

All-history rows before 20260508: 32

System season_avg: 0.1920

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1923

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.156	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.156	0.000	-0.156	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.250	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.250	4.000	0.750	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.143	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.192	0.250	0.308	0.250
predicted_BB	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.440	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.625	1.000	1.375	1.000
predicted_HR	0.130	2.000	2.000	Hitting_HR	0.125	0.000	1.875	2.000
predicted_OBP	0.238	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.303	0.250	0.197	0.250
predicted_R	0.375	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.375	0.000	0.625	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.280	3.000	3.000	Hitting_RBI	0.344	0.000	2.656	3.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.156	0.000	-0.156	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.316	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SLG	0.356	0.250	1.644	1.750
predicted_SO	0.906	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.906	0.000	-0.906	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.156	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.250	-
predicted_AVG	0.143	-
predicted_BB	0.500	-
predicted_H	0.440	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.238	-
predicted_R	0.375	-
predicted_RBI	0.280	-
predicted_SLG	0.316	-
predicted_SO	0.906	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.155	-0.001
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.377	0.127
predicted_AVG	0.143	0.000
predicted_BB	0.426	-0.074
predicted_H	0.475	0.035
predicted_HBP	0.046	-
predicted_HR	0.141	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.238	-0.000
predicted_R	0.365	-0.010
predicted_RBI	0.302	0.022
predicted_SLG	0.316	0.000
predicted_SO	0.857	-0.049

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.38), rates preserved: AVG=0.141 HR/AB=0.042

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	2.000	2.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	3.000	3.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	0.1579	0.2381	0.3684	0.1579	0.0526	0.1053	0.1053	0.2105
last_10	0.35	10	-	31.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	8.000	0.0968	0.2000	0.2258	0.0968	0.0323	0.0645	0.0968	0.2581
season	0.20	32	-	104.000	20.000	5.000	4.000	11.000	12.000	16.000	29.000	0.1923	0.3033	0.3558	0.1923	0.0385	0.1058	0.1538	0.2788

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1540
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.4450
predicted_AVG	0.1434
predicted_BB	0.3860
predicted_H	0.4940
predicted_HBP	0.0460
predicted_HR	0.1470
predicted_OBP	0.2378
predicted_R	0.3590
predicted_RBI	0.3140
predicted_SLG	0.3160
predicted_SO	0.8300

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1560	0.1540	0.1547	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2500	3.4450	3.3768	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1430	0.1434	0.1433	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5000	0.3860	0.4259	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4400	0.4940	0.4751	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0460	0.0460	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1470	0.1411	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2380	0.2378	0.2379	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3750	0.3590	0.3646	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2800	0.3140	0.3021	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3160	0.3160	0.3160	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9060	0.8300	0.8566	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	2
R	1
RBI	3
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.192

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260507_TEX@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	694497
playerID	694497
playerName	Evan Carter
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	TEX
teamID	28

Josh Jung (673962) · BATTER · 3B · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 33

All-history rows before 20260508: 33

System season_avg: 0.3170

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3175

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.364	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.364	0.000	-0.364	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.818	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.818	3.000	0.182	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.315	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.317	0.000	-0.067	0.250
predicted_BB	0.303	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.303	0.000	-0.303	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_H	1.160	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.212	0.000	-0.212	1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.121	0.000	-0.121	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.361	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.374	0.250	-0.124	0.000
predicted_R	0.394	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.394	0.000	0.606	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.576	0.000	-0.576	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.400	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.508	0.000	-0.258	0.250
predicted_SO	0.636	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.636	0.000	0.364	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.364	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.818	-
predicted_AVG	0.315	-
predicted_BB	0.303	-
predicted_H	1.160	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.361	-
predicted_R	0.394	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.400	-
predicted_SO	0.636	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.303	-0.061
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.971	0.153
predicted_AVG	0.315	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.217	-0.086
predicted_H	1.235	0.075
predicted_HBP	0.135	-
predicted_HR	0.024	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.361	0.000
predicted_R	0.294	-0.100
predicted_RBI	0.289	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.400	0.000
predicted_SO	0.595	-0.041

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.97), rates preserved: AVG=0.311 HR/AB=0.006

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.818

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	0.2857	0.3182	0.3333	0.2857	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.1429
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	14.000	3.000	0.000	5.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	0.3500	0.4091	0.4250	0.3500	0.0000	0.1250	0.0750	0.1250
season	0.20	33	-	126.000	40.000	12.000	4.000	19.000	13.000	10.000	21.000	0.3175	0.3741	0.5079	0.3175	0.0318	0.1508	0.0794	0.1667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2700
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.0540
predicted_AVG	0.3146
predicted_BB	0.1710
predicted_H	1.2750
predicted_HBP	0.1350
predicted_HR	0.0260
predicted_OBP	0.3612
predicted_R	0.2410
predicted_RBI	0.3000
predicted_SLG	0.4003
predicted_SO	0.5730

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3640	0.2700	0.3029	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8180	4.0540	3.9714	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3150	0.3146	0.3147	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3030	0.1710	0.2172	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1600	1.2750	1.2348	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1350	0.1350	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0260	0.0239	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3610	0.3612	0.3611	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3940	0.2410	0.2945	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.3000	0.2895	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4000	0.4003	0.4002	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6360	0.5730	0.5950	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.317

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260507_TEX@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	673962
playerID	673962
playerName	Josh Jung
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	TEX
teamID	28

Jake Burger (669394) · BATTER · 1B · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 36

All-history rows before 20260508: 36

System season_avg: 0.2080

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2083

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.139	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.139	0.000	-0.139	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	4.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.174	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.208	0.000	-0.208	0.000
predicted_BB	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.620	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.833	0.000	-0.833	0.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.139	0.000	-0.139	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.243	0.000	-0.243	0.000
predicted_R	0.361	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.361	0.000	-0.361	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.306	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.347	0.000	-0.347	0.000
predicted_SO	1.167	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.167	0.000	0.833	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.139	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.174	-
predicted_BB	0.167	-
predicted_H	0.620	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.220	-
predicted_R	0.361	-
predicted_RBI	0.320	-
predicted_SLG	0.306	-
predicted_SO	1.167	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.090	-0.049
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.954	-0.046
predicted_AVG	0.174	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.208	0.041
predicted_H	0.660	0.040
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.148	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.220	-0.000
predicted_R	0.382	0.021
predicted_RBI	0.338	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.306	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.966	-0.202

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.165 HR/AB=0.037

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	0.1500	0.1905	0.3000	0.1500	0.0500	0.1000	0.0500	0.1500
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	10.000	0.1842	0.2439	0.2895	0.1842	0.0263	0.0526	0.0790	0.2632
season	0.20	36	-	144.000	30.000	5.000	5.000	18.000	13.000	6.000	42.000	0.2083	0.2434	0.3472	0.2083	0.0347	0.1250	0.0417	0.2917

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0630
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.9300
predicted_AVG	0.1736
predicted_BB	0.2300
predicted_H	0.6820
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.1520
predicted_OBP	0.2198
predicted_R	0.3930
predicted_RBI	0.3470
predicted_SLG	0.3058
predicted_SO	0.8570

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1390	0.0630	0.0896	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0000	3.9300	3.9545	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1740	0.1736	0.1737	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1670	0.2300	0.2080	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6200	0.6820	0.6603	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1520	0.1478	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2200	0.2198	0.2199	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3610	0.3930	0.3818	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3200	0.3470	0.3376	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3060	0.3058	0.3059	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1670	0.8570	0.9655	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.208

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260507_TEX@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	669394
playerID	669394
playerName	Jake Burger
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	TEX
teamID	28

Alejandro Osuna (696030) · BATTER · LF · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 8

All-history rows before 20260508: 8

System season_avg: 0.1670

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1667

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.139	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.500	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.250	3.000	0.750	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.161	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.167	0.333	-0.167	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.694	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.625	1.000	-0.625	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_H	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.375	1.000	-0.375	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.379	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.400	0.500	-0.400	-0.500
predicted_R	0.278	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.226	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.222	0.333	-0.222	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.694	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.625	1.000	0.375	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.139	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.161	-
predicted_BB	0.694	-
predicted_H	0.310	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.379	-
predicted_R	0.278	-
predicted_RBI	0.120	-
predicted_SLG	0.226	-
predicted_SO	0.694	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.151	0.012
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.440	-0.060
predicted_AVG	0.161	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.590	-0.104
predicted_H	0.360	0.050
predicted_HBP	0.314	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.379	-0.000
predicted_R	0.247	-0.031
predicted_RBI	0.144	0.024
predicted_SLG	0.226	0.000
predicted_SO	0.699	0.005

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.144 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	13.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	0.1538	0.3529	0.2308	0.1538	0.0769	0.1538	0.3077
last_10	0.35	8	-	18.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	5.000	0.1667	0.4000	0.2222	0.1667	0.0556	0.2778	0.2778
season	0.20	8	-	18.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	5.000	0.1667	0.4000	0.2222	0.1667	0.0556	0.2778	0.2778

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1570
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.4080
predicted_AVG	0.1609
predicted_BB	0.5340
predicted_H	0.3870
predicted_HBP	0.3140
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.3788
predicted_R	0.2300
predicted_RBI	0.1570
predicted_SLG	0.2261
predicted_SO	0.7010

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1390	0.1570	0.1507	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.5000	2.4080	2.4402	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1610	0.1609	0.1609	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6940	0.5340	0.5900	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3100	0.3870	0.3600	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.3140	0.3140	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3790	0.3788	0.3789	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2780	0.2300	0.2468	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1200	0.1570	0.1441	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2260	0.2261	0.2261	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6940	0.7010	0.6986	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.167

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260506_TEX@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	696030
playerID	696030
playerName	Alejandro Osuna
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	TEX
teamID	28

Joc Pederson (592626) · BATTER · DH · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 27

All-history rows before 20260508: 27

System season_avg: 0.1870

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1867

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.037	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.037	0.000	-0.037	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.778	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	2.778	2.000	1.222	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.147	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.187	0.500	-0.187	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.370	0.000	-0.370	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.519	1.000	-0.519	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.037	0.000	-0.037	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.281	0.500	-0.281	-0.500
predicted_R	0.259	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.259	0.000	-0.259	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.185	0.000	-0.185	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.158	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.240	0.500	-0.240	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.852	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.852	0.000	0.148	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.037	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.778	-
predicted_AVG	0.147	-
predicted_BB	0.370	-
predicted_H	0.370	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.190	-
predicted_R	0.259	-
predicted_RBI	0.280	-
predicted_SLG	0.158	-
predicted_SO	0.852	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.018	-0.019
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.848	0.070
predicted_AVG	0.147	0.000
predicted_BB	0.250	-0.120
predicted_H	0.406	0.036
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.009	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.190	0.000
predicted_R	0.172	-0.087
predicted_RBI	0.306	0.026
predicted_SLG	0.158	0.000
predicted_SO	0.667	-0.185

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.85), rates preserved: AVG=0.142 HR/AB=0.003

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.1333	0.1333	0.1333	0.1333	0.0000	0.1333	0.0000	0.1333
last_10	0.35	10	-	28.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	6.000	0.1429	0.2121	0.1429	0.1429	0.0000	0.1071	0.1071	0.2143
season	0.20	27	-	75.000	14.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	7.000	10.000	23.000	0.1867	0.2809	0.2400	0.1867	0.0133	0.0667	0.1333	0.3067

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0080
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.8860
predicted_AVG	0.1473
predicted_BB	0.1850
predicted_H	0.4250
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.0080
predicted_OBP	0.1904
predicted_R	0.1260
predicted_RBI	0.3200
predicted_SLG	0.1580
predicted_SO	0.5670

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0370	0.0080	0.0181	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.7780	2.8860	2.8482	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1470	0.1473	0.1472	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3700	0.1850	0.2497	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3700	0.4250	0.4057	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0080	0.0087	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1900	0.1904	0.1903	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2590	0.1260	0.1725	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2800	0.3200	0.3060	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1580	0.1580	0.1580	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8520	0.5670	0.6667	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.187

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260507_TEX@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	592626
playerID	592626
playerName	Joc Pederson
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	TEX
teamID	28

Brandon Nimmo (607043) · BATTER · RF · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 35

All-history rows before 20260508: 35

System season_avg: 0.2970

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2971

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.029	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_AB	3.943	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.943	5.000	-0.943	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.325	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.297	0.400	-0.297	-0.400
predicted_BB	0.429	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.429	0.000	0.571	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_H	1.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.171	2.000	-1.171	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.114	0.000	-0.114	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.425	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.376	0.400	-0.126	-0.150
predicted_R	0.486	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.486	0.000	-0.486	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.343	0.000	-0.343	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.356	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.449	0.400	-0.449	-0.400
predicted_SO	0.857	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.857	0.000	1.143	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.029	-
predicted_AB	3.943	-
predicted_AVG	0.325	-
predicted_BB	0.429	-
predicted_H	1.280	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.425	-
predicted_R	0.486	-
predicted_RBI	0.110	-
predicted_SLG	0.356	-
predicted_SO	0.857	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.093	-0.107
predicted_3B	0.013	-0.016
predicted_AB	3.648	-0.295
predicted_AVG	0.325	0.000
predicted_BB	0.543	0.114
predicted_H	1.186	-0.094
predicted_HBP	0.049	-
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.425	0.000
predicted_R	0.483	-0.003
predicted_RBI	0.100	-0.010
predicted_SLG	0.356	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.723	-0.134

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.94), rates preserved: AVG=0.301 HR/AB=0.005

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.943

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	3.000	0.3750	0.5000	0.3750	0.3750	0.0000	0.0000	0.2500	0.1875
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	10.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	6.000	0.2778	0.3571	0.2778	0.2778	0.0000	0.0278	0.1111	0.1667
season	0.20	35	-	138.000	41.000	7.000	1.000	4.000	12.000	17.000	15.000	30.000	0.2971	0.3758	0.4493	0.2971	0.0290	0.0870	0.1087	0.2174

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0350
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.4890
predicted_AVG	0.3254
predicted_BB	0.6040
predicted_H	1.1350
predicted_HBP	0.0490
predicted_HR	0.0200
predicted_OBP	0.4251
predicted_R	0.4820
predicted_RBI	0.0950
predicted_SLG	0.3558
predicted_SO	0.6500

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.0350	0.0927	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0290	0.0050	0.0134	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9430	3.4890	3.6479	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3250	0.3254	0.3253	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4290	0.6040	0.5427	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2800	1.1350	1.1858	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0490	0.0490	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0200	0.0200	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4250	0.4251	0.4251	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4860	0.4820	0.4834	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1100	0.0950	0.1003	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3560	0.3558	0.3559	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8570	0.6500	0.7225	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.297

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260507_TEX@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	607043
playerID	607043
playerName	Brandon Nimmo
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	TEX
teamID	28

Corey Seager (608369) · BATTER · SS · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 36

All-history rows before 20260508: 36

System season_avg: 0.2090

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2090

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.722	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.722	3.000	0.278	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.186	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.209	0.000	0.041	0.250
predicted_BB	0.583	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.583	2.000	-0.583	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.670	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.778	0.000	0.222	1.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.194	0.000	-0.194	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.299	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.316	0.400	-0.066	-0.150
predicted_R	0.583	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.583	0.000	0.417	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.330	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.528	0.000	-0.528	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.338	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.410	0.000	-0.160	0.250
predicted_SO	1.167	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.167	1.000	-0.167	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.722	-
predicted_AVG	0.186	-
predicted_BB	0.583	-
predicted_H	0.670	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.299	-
predicted_R	0.583	-
predicted_RBI	0.330	-
predicted_SLG	0.338	-
predicted_SO	1.167	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.127	-0.040
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.844	0.122
predicted_AVG	0.186	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.615	0.032
predicted_H	0.706	0.036
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.159	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.299	0.000
predicted_R	0.444	-0.139
predicted_RBI	0.348	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.338	0.000
predicted_SO	1.310	0.143

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.84), rates preserved: AVG=0.184 HR/AB=0.041

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	7.000	0.2000	0.3043	0.3500	0.2000	0.0500	0.1000	0.1500	0.3500
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	15.000	0.1538	0.2826	0.2821	0.1538	0.0256	0.0513	0.1795	0.3846
season	0.20	36	-	134.000	28.000	6.000	7.000	19.000	21.000	21.000	42.000	0.2090	0.3165	0.4104	0.2090	0.0522	0.1418	0.1567	0.3134

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1050
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.9090
predicted_AVG	0.1856
predicted_BB	0.6320
predicted_H	0.7260
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.1640
predicted_OBP	0.2991
predicted_R	0.3690
predicted_RBI	0.3570
predicted_SLG	0.3383
predicted_SO	1.3870

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.1050	0.1267	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7220	3.9090	3.8435	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1860	0.1856	0.1857	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5830	0.6320	0.6149	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6700	0.7260	0.7064	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1640	0.1591	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2990	0.2991	0.2991	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5830	0.3690	0.4439	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3300	0.3570	0.3476	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3380	0.3383	0.3382	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1670	1.3870	1.3100	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.209

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260507_TEX@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	608369
playerID	608369
playerName	Corey Seager
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	TEX
teamID	28

Kumar Rocker (677958) · PITCHER · Starter · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 6

All-history rows before 20260508: 6

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	4.000	4.000	-	Pitching_ER	2.500	5.000	1.500	-1.000
predicted_IP	3.100	3.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.700	2.000	-1.600	1.100
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	-	Pitching_SO	4.000	2.000	0.000	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 3.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	23.200	13.000	26.000	9.000	21.000	3.000	4.9437	1.4789	0.5493	1.0986	0.3803	0.8873	0.1268
last_10	0.35	6	28.200	15.000	32.000	10.000	24.000	3.000	4.7093	1.4651	0.5233	1.1163	0.3488	0.8372	0.1047
season	0.20	6	28.200	15.000	32.000	10.000	24.000	3.000	4.7093	1.4651	0.5233	1.1163	0.3488	0.8372	0.1047

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.6940
predicted_ER	2.4970
predicted_ERA	4.8148
predicted_H	5.1720
predicted_HR	0.5350
predicted_IP	4.2000
predicted_SO	4.0120
predicted_WHIP	1.4713

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	1.6940	2.1511	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	4.0000	2.4970	3.0230	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.8148	4.8148	form_only
predicted_H	5.0000	5.1720	5.1118	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	3.0000	0.5350	1.3977	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	3.1000	4.2000	4.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	4.0000	4.0120	4.0078	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4713	1.4713	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	3.1
H	5
R	4
ER	4
BB	3
SO	4
HR	3
BF	20
Pitches	97

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	12
Pitching_ER	5
Pitching_ERA	4.71
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	7
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	43
Pitching_R	5
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	24
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260502_TEX@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	677958
playerID	677958
playerName	Kumar Rocker
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	TEX
teamID	28

Jakob Junis (596001) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 14

All-history rows before 20260508: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.214	0.000	0.786	1.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.079	1.000	0.121	0.200
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.429	0.000	-0.429	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.0000	0.4000	0.0000	0.4000	0.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	3.000	6.000	4.000	2.000	2.6129	0.9677	0.2903	0.5806	0.3871	0.1935
season	0.20	14	15.100	3.000	7.000	4.000	6.000	1.7609	0.7174	0.1956	0.4565	0.2609	0.3913

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1880
predicted_ER	0.1410
predicted_ERA	1.2667
predicted_H	0.4750
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.1460
predicted_WHIP	0.6622

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1880	0.1222	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.1410	0.4416	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.2667	1.2667	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.4750	0.6587	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0000	0.3500	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.0000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.1460	0.0949	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.6622	0.6622	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	1
BF	4
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.76
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	9
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260501_TEX@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	596001
playerID	596001
playerName	Jakob Junis
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TEX
teamID	28

Gavin Collyer (686560) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 10

All-history rows before 20260508: 10

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.650	0.100	0.450	1.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.700	0.000	0.300	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 10

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	WHIP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	2.000	0.000	4.000	0.4615	0.4615	0.0000	0.9231
last_10	0.35	10	7.200	3.000	3.000	7.000	0.7826	0.3913	0.3913	0.9130
season	0.20	10	7.200	3.000	3.000	7.000	0.7826	0.3913	0.3913	0.9130

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1760
predicted_ER	0.0000
predicted_ERA	0.0000
predicted_H	0.3450
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.7490
predicted_WHIP	0.6381

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.1760	0.8144	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.0000	0.7000	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.3450	0.5742	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	0.2000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.7490	0.8368	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.6381	0.6381	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	10
Season rows before report date	10
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	10
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	2
ER	2
BB	2
SO	1
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	1
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.00
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	4
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	3
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_TEX@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	686560
playerID	686560
playerName	Gavin Collyer
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TEX
teamID	28

Cole Winn (668390) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 16

All-history rows before 20260508: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.744	0.100	0.256	0.900
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	0.000	-1.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.100	5.000	6.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	13.5000	2.1000	1.5000	1.8000	0.3000	1.2000	0.3000
last_10	0.35	10	8.200	8.000	10.000	4.000	11.000	3.000	8.3077	1.6154	0.9231	1.1539	0.4615	1.2692	0.3462
season	0.20	16	14.000	8.000	14.000	6.000	16.000	3.000	5.1429	1.4286	0.5714	1.0000	0.4286	1.1429	0.2143

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3250
predicted_ER	0.9460
predicted_ERA	10.0113
predicted_H	1.2020
predicted_HR	0.2540
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0310
predicted_WHIP	1.7961

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3250	0.2113	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.9460	0.6149	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	10.0113	10.0113	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.2020	0.7813	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2540	0.1651	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.0310	0.6702	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.7961	1.7961	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	10

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.14
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	2
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	7
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	4
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_TEX@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	668390
playerID	668390
playerName	Cole Winn
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TEX
teamID	28

Jacob Latz (656641) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 15

All-history rows before 20260508: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.167	1.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.067	1.000	-1.067	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	0.000	0.0000	0.3333	0.0000	0.1667	0.1667	1.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	2.000	5.000	2.000	8.000	1.000	1.8621	0.7241	0.2069	0.5172	0.2069	0.8276	0.1035
season	0.20	15	18.200	2.000	5.000	4.000	16.000	1.000	0.9643	0.4821	0.1071	0.2679	0.2143	0.8571	0.0536

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2320
predicted_ER	0.1140
predicted_ERA	0.8446
predicted_H	0.3770
predicted_HR	0.0570
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.1080
predicted_WHIP	0.4998

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.2320	0.5008	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1140	0.0741	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.8446	0.8446	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.3770	0.2451	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0570	0.0370	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.1000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.1080	0.7202	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.4998	0.4998	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.96
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	21
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_TEX@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	656641
playerID	656641
playerName	Jacob Latz
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TEX
teamID	28

Tyler Alexander (641302) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 17

All-history rows before 20260508: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.294	1.000	-0.294	-1.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.882	0.200	-0.682	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.765	1.000	-0.765	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	4.000	10.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	9.0000	3.0000	1.0000	2.5000	0.5000	0.2500	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	4.000	15.000	2.000	6.000	1.000	3.8571	1.8214	0.4286	1.6071	0.2143	0.6429	0.1071
season	0.20	17	17.100	5.000	22.000	5.000	13.000	1.000	2.5962	1.5577	0.2885	1.2692	0.2885	0.7500	0.0577

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3040
predicted_ER	0.5590
predicted_ERA	5.9192
predicted_H	1.6500
predicted_HR	0.1370
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.4140
predicted_WHIP	2.2990

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.3040	0.8976	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5590	0.3634	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.9192	5.9192	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.6500	1.4225	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1370	0.0891	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.4140	0.2691	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	2.2990	2.2990	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	2
SO	0
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	28

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	2.60
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_TEX@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	641302
playerID	641302
playerName	Tyler Alexander
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TEX
teamID	28

20260508_COL@PHI

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 6, "confidence": 0.6, "home_win_probability": 0.6, "away_win_probability": 0.4, "predicted_score_text": "COL 3 - 6 PHI", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to final winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "predicted_score_text": "COL 4 - 5 PHI", "confidence": 0.6, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score", "final_prediction_synced": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "COL 4 - 5 PHI", "winner": "PHI"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "COL 3 - 6 PHI", "winner": "PHI"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": -1, "home_run_delta": 1, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"}}

Away Team: COL

Jordan Beck (687597) · BATTER · LF · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 18

All-history rows before 20260508: 18

System season_avg: 0.1610

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1613

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	0.833	1.000
predicted_3B	0.056	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.056	1.000	-0.056	-1.000
predicted_AB	3.444	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.444	3.000	0.556	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.185	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.161	0.333	0.339	0.167
predicted_BB	0.167	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.167	0.000	0.833	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_H	0.640	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.556	1.000	1.444	1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.217	0.600	0.600	Hitting_OBP	0.197	0.333	0.403	0.267
predicted_R	0.278	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.278	1.000	0.722	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.520	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	1.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.354	0.750	0.750	Hitting_SLG	0.290	1.000	0.460	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.944	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.944	1.000	0.056	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.056	-
predicted_AB	3.444	-
predicted_AVG	0.185	-
predicted_BB	0.167	-
predicted_H	0.640	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.217	-
predicted_R	0.278	-
predicted_RBI	0.520	-
predicted_SLG	0.354	-
predicted_SO	0.944	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.184	0.017
predicted_3B	0.107	0.051
predicted_AB	3.525	0.081
predicted_AVG	0.185	0.000
predicted_BB	0.161	-0.006
predicted_H	0.653	0.013
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.044	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.217	0.000
predicted_R	0.283	0.005
predicted_RBI	0.536	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.354	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.089	0.145

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.53), rates preserved: AVG=0.185 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	0.1667	0.2105	0.3333	0.1667	0.0000	0.1667	0.0556	0.3889
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	8.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	4.000	1.000	10.000	0.2222	0.2368	0.4167	0.2222	0.0278	0.1389	0.0278	0.2778
season	0.20	18	-	62.000	10.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	9.000	5.000	3.000	17.000	0.1613	0.1970	0.2903	0.1613	0.0161	0.1452	0.0484	0.2742

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1930
predicted_3B	0.1350
predicted_AB	3.5690
predicted_AVG	0.1850
predicted_BB	0.1580
predicted_H	0.6600
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0460
predicted_OBP	0.2170
predicted_R	0.2860
predicted_RBI	0.5450
predicted_SLG	0.3539
predicted_SO	1.1670

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.1930	0.1839	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0560	0.1350	0.1074	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4440	3.5690	3.5252	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1850	0.1850	0.1850	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1670	0.1580	0.1612	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6400	0.6600	0.6530	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0460	0.0439	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2170	0.2170	0.2170	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2780	0.2860	0.2832	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5200	0.5450	0.5363	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3540	0.3539	0.3539	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9440	1.1670	1.0890	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.161

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	1
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260504_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	687597
playerID	687597
playerName	Jordan Beck
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	COL
teamID	9

Brett Sullivan (664954) · BATTER · DH · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 15

All-history rows before 20260508: 15

System season_avg: 0.2450

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2453

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.533	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.533	4.000	0.467	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.253	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.245	0.000	0.005	0.250
predicted_BB	0.133	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.740	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.867	0.000	0.133	1.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.303	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.273	0.000	-0.023	0.250
predicted_R	0.133	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.390	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.340	0.000	-0.090	0.250
predicted_SO	0.800	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.800	3.000	0.200	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.333	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.533	-
predicted_AVG	0.253	-
predicted_BB	0.133	-
predicted_H	0.740	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.303	-
predicted_R	0.133	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.390	-
predicted_SO	0.800	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.447	0.114
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.649	0.116
predicted_AVG	0.253	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.225	0.092
predicted_H	0.869	0.129
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.303	0.000
predicted_R	0.225	0.092
predicted_RBI	0.483	0.074
predicted_SLG	0.390	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.881	0.081

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.65), rates preserved: AVG=0.238 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	5.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	0.2632	0.3333	0.4211	0.2632	0.1579	0.1053	0.2632
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	9.000	5.000	5.000	2.000	2.000	9.000	0.2432	0.2821	0.3784	0.2432	0.1351	0.0541	0.2432
season	0.20	15	-	53.000	13.000	5.000	6.000	2.000	2.000	12.000	0.2453	0.2727	0.3396	0.2453	0.1132	0.0377	0.2264

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.5090
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7120
predicted_AVG	0.2526
predicted_BB	0.2740
predicted_H	0.9380
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.3033
predicted_R	0.2740
predicted_RBI	0.5230
predicted_SLG	0.3899
predicted_SO	0.9240

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3330	0.5090	0.4474	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5330	3.7120	3.6494	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2530	0.2526	0.2527	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1330	0.2740	0.2247	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7400	0.9380	0.8687	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3030	0.3033	0.3032	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1330	0.2740	0.2247	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.5230	0.4835	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3900	0.3899	0.3899	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8000	0.9240	0.8806	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.245

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260507_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	664954
playerID	664954
playerName	Brett Sullivan
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	COL
teamID	9

TJ Rumfield (681198) · BATTER · 1B · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 35

All-history rows before 20260508: 35

System season_avg: 0.2730

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2727

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.171	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.171	0.000	-0.171	0.000
predicted_3B	0.029	1.000	1.000	Hitting_3B	0.029	0.000	0.971	1.000
predicted_AB	3.771	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.771	3.000	0.229	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.323	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.273	0.333	-0.023	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.371	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.371	1.000	-0.371	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.180	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.029	1.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_HR	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.114	0.000	-0.114	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.379	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.340	0.500	-0.090	-0.250
predicted_R	0.371	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.371	1.000	0.629	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.480	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.543	0.000	0.457	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.557	0.750	0.750	Hitting_SLG	0.424	0.333	0.326	0.417
predicted_SO	0.657	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.657	0.000	1.343	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.171	-
predicted_3B	0.029	-
predicted_AB	3.771	-
predicted_AVG	0.323	-
predicted_BB	0.371	-
predicted_H	1.180	-
predicted_HR	0.250	-
predicted_OBP	0.379	-
predicted_R	0.371	-
predicted_RBI	0.480	-
predicted_SLG	0.557	-
predicted_SO	0.657	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.128	-0.044
predicted_3B	0.014	-0.015
predicted_AB	3.913	0.142
predicted_AVG	0.323	0.000
predicted_BB	0.364	-0.007
predicted_H	1.251	0.071
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.264	0.014
predicted_OBP	0.379	0.000
predicted_R	0.467	0.096
predicted_RBI	0.506	0.026
predicted_SLG	0.557	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.606	-0.051

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.91), rates preserved: AVG=0.320 HR/AB=0.068

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	1.000	1.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	7.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	0.3500	0.4091	0.6500	0.3500	0.1000	0.1500	0.1000	0.1500
last_10	0.35	10	-	41.000	13.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	5.000	3.000	5.000	0.3171	0.3636	0.5122	0.3171	0.0488	0.0976	0.0732	0.1220
season	0.20	35	-	132.000	36.000	6.000	1.000	4.000	19.000	13.000	13.000	23.000	0.2727	0.3401	0.4242	0.2727	0.0303	0.1439	0.0985	0.1742

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1040
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.9890
predicted_AVG	0.3230
predicted_BB	0.3600
predicted_H	1.2890
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.2720
predicted_OBP	0.3794
predicted_R	0.5180
predicted_RBI	0.5200
predicted_SLG	0.5566
predicted_SO	0.5790

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1710	0.1040	0.1275	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0290	0.0060	0.0140	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7710	3.9890	3.9127	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3230	0.3230	0.3230	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3710	0.3600	0.3639	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1800	1.2890	1.2509	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2500	0.2720	0.2643	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3790	0.3794	0.3793	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3710	0.5180	0.4666	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4800	0.5200	0.5060	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5570	0.5566	0.5567	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6570	0.5790	0.6063	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	1
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.273

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260507_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	681198
playerID	681198
playerName	TJ Rumfield
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	COL
teamID	9

Hunter Goodman (696100) · BATTER · C · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 32

All-history rows before 20260508: 32

System season_avg: 0.2280

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2283

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.219	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.219	0.000	-0.219	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.969	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.969	4.000	-0.969	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.149	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.228	0.250	-0.228	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.344	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.344	1.000	-0.344	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.031	0.000	-0.031	0.000
predicted_H	0.560	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.906	1.000	-0.906	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.281	0.000	-0.281	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.227	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.305	0.400	-0.305	-0.400
predicted_R	0.719	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.719	0.000	0.281	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.438	0.000	0.562	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.031	0.000	-0.031	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.308	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.496	0.250	-0.496	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.688	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.688	1.000	-0.688	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.219	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.969	-
predicted_AVG	0.149	-
predicted_BB	0.344	-
predicted_H	0.560	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.227	-
predicted_R	0.719	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.308	-
predicted_SO	1.688	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.187	-0.032
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.031	0.062
predicted_AVG	0.149	0.000
predicted_BB	0.373	0.029
predicted_H	0.590	0.030
predicted_HBP	0.019	-
predicted_HR	0.156	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.227	-0.000
predicted_R	0.561	-0.158
predicted_RBI	0.376	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.308	0.000
predicted_SO	1.687	-0.001

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.03), rates preserved: AVG=0.146 HR/AB=0.039

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	1.000	1.000
SO	1.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.969

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	8.000	0.1000	0.1818	0.1500	0.1000	0.0000	0.0500	0.1000	0.4000
last_10	0.35	10	-	42.000	7.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	7.000	4.000	18.000	0.1667	0.2391	0.4048	0.1667	0.0714	0.1429	0.0952	0.4286
season	0.20	32	-	127.000	29.000	7.000	9.000	14.000	23.000	11.000	54.000	0.2283	0.3050	0.4961	0.2283	0.0709	0.1102	0.0866	0.4252

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1700
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.0640
predicted_AVG	0.1490
predicted_BB	0.3890
predicted_H	0.6060
predicted_HBP	0.0190
predicted_HR	0.1590
predicted_OBP	0.2265
predicted_R	0.4760
predicted_RBI	0.3840
predicted_SLG	0.3084
predicted_SO	1.6870

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2190	0.1700	0.1872	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9690	4.0640	4.0307	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1490	0.1490	0.1490	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3440	0.3890	0.3732	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5600	0.6060	0.5899	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0190	0.0190	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1590	0.1559	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2270	0.2265	0.2267	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7190	0.4760	0.5611	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.3840	0.3756	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3080	0.3084	0.3083	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.6880	1.6870	1.6874	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	1
HBP	0
season_avg	0.228

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260506_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	696100
playerID	696100
playerName	Hunter Goodman
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	COL
teamID	9

Willi Castro (650489) · BATTER · 2B · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 26

All-history rows before 20260508: 26

System season_avg: 0.2550

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2553

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.192	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.192	0.000	0.808	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.615	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.615	2.000	0.385	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.280	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.255	0.500	-0.005	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.346	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.346	2.000	-0.346	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_H	0.910	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.923	1.000	0.077	0.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.038	0.000	-0.038	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.355	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.327	0.750	-0.077	-0.500
predicted_R	0.538	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.538	1.000	-0.538	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.462	1.000	-0.462	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.306	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.340	0.500	0.160	0.000
predicted_SO	1.269	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.269	0.000	-0.269	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.192	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.615	-
predicted_AVG	0.280	-
predicted_BB	0.346	-
predicted_H	0.910	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.355	-
predicted_R	0.538	-
predicted_RBI	0.370	-
predicted_SLG	0.306	-
predicted_SO	1.269	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.116	-0.076
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.643	0.028
predicted_AVG	0.280	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.398	0.052
predicted_H	0.983	0.073
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.009	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.355	0.000
predicted_R	0.491	-0.047
predicted_RBI	0.398	0.028
predicted_SLG	0.306	0.000
predicted_SO	1.107	-0.162

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.64), rates preserved: AVG=0.270 HR/AB=0.002

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 26

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	0.2632	0.3333	0.2632	0.2632	0.0000	0.1053	0.1053	0.2632
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	11.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	5.000	5.000	9.000	0.3143	0.4000	0.3429	0.3143	0.0000	0.1143	0.1429	0.2571
season	0.20	26	-	94.000	24.000	5.000	1.000	12.000	14.000	9.000	33.000	0.2553	0.3269	0.3404	0.2553	0.0106	0.1277	0.0957	0.3511

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0750
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.6580
predicted_AVG	0.2795
predicted_BB	0.4260
predicted_H	1.0220
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.0080
predicted_OBP	0.3554
predicted_R	0.4650
predicted_RBI	0.4130
predicted_SLG	0.3065
predicted_SO	1.0190

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1920	0.0750	0.1159	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6150	3.6580	3.6429	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2800	0.2795	0.2797	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3460	0.4260	0.3980	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9100	1.0220	0.9828	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0080	0.0087	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3550	0.3554	0.3553	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5380	0.4650	0.4906	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3700	0.4130	0.3980	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3060	0.3065	0.3063	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2690	1.0190	1.1065	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	26
Season rows before report date	26
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	26
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.255

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS-2B
gameID	20260507_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	650489
playerID	650489
playerName	Willi Castro
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	COL
teamID	9

Kyle Karros (691720) · BATTER · 3B · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 33

All-history rows before 20260508: 33

System season_avg: 0.2220

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2222

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.121	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.121	1.000	-0.121	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	3.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.306	0.667	0.667	Hitting_AVG	0.222	0.333	0.444	0.333
predicted_BB	0.606	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.606	1.000	0.394	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.820	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.667	1.000	1.333	1.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.411	0.750	0.750	Hitting_OBP	0.347	0.500	0.403	0.250
predicted_R	0.424	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.424	0.000	-0.424	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.152	0.000	-0.152	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.061	0.000	-0.061	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.358	0.667	0.667	Hitting_SLG	0.293	0.667	0.374	0.000
predicted_SO	0.909	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.909	2.000	0.091	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.121	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.306	-
predicted_BB	0.606	-
predicted_H	0.820	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.411	-
predicted_R	0.424	-
predicted_RBI	0.160	-
predicted_SLG	0.358	-
predicted_SO	0.909	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.140	0.019
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.150	0.150
predicted_AVG	0.306	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.604	-0.002
predicted_H	0.929	0.109
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.008	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.411	-0.000
predicted_R	0.412	-0.012
predicted_RBI	0.179	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.358	0.000
predicted_SO	1.205	0.296

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.15), rates preserved: AVG=0.295 HR/AB=0.003

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	7.000	0.3750	0.4737	0.4375	0.3750	0.0000	0.0625	0.1875	0.4375
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	9.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	6.000	16.000	0.2647	0.3659	0.2941	0.2647	0.0000	0.0588	0.1765	0.4706
season	0.20	33	-	99.000	22.000	4.000	1.000	5.000	14.000	20.000	30.000	0.2222	0.3471	0.2929	0.2222	0.0101	0.0505	0.2020	0.3030

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1500
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.2300
predicted_AVG	0.3058
predicted_BB	0.6030
predicted_H	0.9880
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0070
predicted_OBP	0.4107
predicted_R	0.4060
predicted_RBI	0.1900
predicted_SLG	0.3584
predicted_SO	1.3640

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1210	0.1500	0.1399	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.2300	3.1495	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3060	0.3058	0.3059	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6060	0.6030	0.6040	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8200	0.9880	0.9292	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0070	0.0080	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4110	0.4107	0.4108	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4240	0.4060	0.4123	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1600	0.1900	0.1795	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3580	0.3584	0.3583	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9090	1.3640	1.2047	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.222

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260507_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	691720
playerID	691720
playerName	Kyle Karros
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	COL
teamID	9

Tyler Freeman (671289) · BATTER · RF · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 16

All-history rows before 20260508: 16

System season_avg: 0.2670

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2667

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.062	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.750	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.750	4.000	1.250	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.307	0.200	0.200	Hitting_AVG	0.267	0.250	-0.067	-0.050
predicted_BB	0.188	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.188	0.000	-0.188	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_H	1.120	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.417	0.200	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.362	0.250	-0.162	-0.050
predicted_R	0.375	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.375	1.000	-0.375	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.690	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.188	0.000	-0.188	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.464	0.200	0.200	Hitting_SLG	0.333	0.250	-0.133	-0.050
predicted_SO	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.062	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.750	-
predicted_AVG	0.307	-
predicted_BB	0.188	-
predicted_H	1.120	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.417	-
predicted_R	0.375	-
predicted_RBI	0.690	-
predicted_SLG	0.464	-
predicted_SO	0.500	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.113	0.051
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.636	-0.114
predicted_AVG	0.307	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.195	0.007
predicted_H	1.105	-0.015
predicted_HBP	0.491	-
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.417	0.000
predicted_R	0.534	0.159
predicted_RBI	0.681	-0.008
predicted_SLG	0.464	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.448	-0.052

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.75), rates preserved: AVG=0.295 HR/AB=0.037

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, BvP AVG=0.600)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	2.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	0.3529	0.4762	0.5882	0.3529	0.0588	0.2353	0.0588	0.1177
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	10.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	5.000	2.000	4.000	0.2703	0.3721	0.3784	0.2703	0.0270	0.1622	0.0541	0.1081
season	0.20	16	-	60.000	16.000	1.000	1.000	8.000	6.000	3.000	8.000	0.2667	0.3623	0.3333	0.2667	0.0167	0.1333	0.0500	0.1333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1400
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.5750
predicted_AVG	0.3068
predicted_BB	0.1980
predicted_H	1.0970
predicted_HBP	0.4910
predicted_HR	0.1400
predicted_OBP	0.4170
predicted_R	0.6190
predicted_RBI	0.6770
predicted_SLG	0.4638
predicted_SO	0.4200

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0620	0.1400	0.1127	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7500	3.5750	3.6362	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3070	0.3068	0.3069	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1880	0.1980	0.1945	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1200	1.0970	1.1050	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.4910	0.4910	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1400	0.1400	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4170	0.4170	0.4170	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3750	0.6190	0.5336	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6900	0.6770	0.6815	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4640	0.4638	0.4639	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5000	0.4200	0.4480	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.267

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260507_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	671289
playerID	671289
playerName	Tyler Freeman
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	COL
teamID	9

Brenton Doyle (686668) · BATTER · CF · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 24

All-history rows before 20260508: 24

System season_avg: 0.1620

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1625

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.083	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.333	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.333	2.000	-0.333	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.128	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.163	0.000	-0.163	0.000
predicted_BB	0.375	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.375	0.000	0.625	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_H	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.542	0.000	-0.542	0.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.042	0.000	-0.042	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.212	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.247	0.000	0.003	0.250
predicted_R	0.458	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.458	0.000	-0.458	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.188	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.225	0.000	-0.225	0.000
predicted_SO	1.375	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.375	1.000	0.625	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.083	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.333	-
predicted_AVG	0.128	-
predicted_BB	0.375	-
predicted_H	0.400	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.212	-
predicted_R	0.458	-
predicted_RBI	0.170	-
predicted_SLG	0.188	-
predicted_SO	1.375	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.144	0.061
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.345	0.012
predicted_AVG	0.128	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.365	-0.010
predicted_H	0.419	0.019
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.009	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.212	0.000
predicted_R	0.486	0.028
predicted_RBI	0.180	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.188	0.000
predicted_SO	1.365	-0.010

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.35), rates preserved: AVG=0.125 HR/AB=0.003

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, BvP AVG=0.143)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 24

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	7.000	0.1176	0.2105	0.1765	0.1177	0.0000	0.0588	0.1177	0.4118
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	13.000	0.1212	0.1944	0.1818	0.1212	0.0000	0.0606	0.0909	0.3939
season	0.20	24	-	80.000	13.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	11.000	9.000	33.000	0.1625	0.2472	0.2250	0.1625	0.0125	0.0375	0.1125	0.4125

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1770
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.3520
predicted_AVG	0.1278
predicted_BB	0.3600
predicted_H	0.4290
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0080
predicted_OBP	0.2122
predicted_R	0.5010
predicted_RBI	0.1850
predicted_SLG	0.1881
predicted_SO	1.3600

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0830	0.1770	0.1441	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3330	3.3520	3.3453	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1280	0.1278	0.1279	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3750	0.3600	0.3652	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4000	0.4290	0.4188	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0080	0.0087	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2120	0.2122	0.2121	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4580	0.5010	0.4859	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1700	0.1850	0.1797	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1880	0.1881	0.1881	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3750	1.3600	1.3653	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	24
Season rows before report date	24
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	24
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.162

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260504_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	686668
playerID	686668
playerName	Brenton Doyle
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	COL
teamID	9

Ezequiel Tovar (678662) · BATTER · SS · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 34

All-history rows before 20260508: 34

System season_avg: 0.1890

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1890

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.235	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.235	0.000	-0.235	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.735	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.735	4.000	0.265	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.101	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.189	0.000	-0.189	0.000
predicted_BB	0.206	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.206	0.000	-0.206	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.706	0.000	-0.706	0.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.189	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.241	0.000	-0.241	0.000
predicted_R	0.265	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.265	0.000	-0.265	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.265	0.000	-0.265	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.118	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.276	0.000	-0.276	0.000
predicted_SO	1.088	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.088	1.000	-1.088	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.235	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.735	-
predicted_AVG	0.101	-
predicted_BB	0.206	-
predicted_H	0.320	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.189	-
predicted_R	0.265	-
predicted_RBI	0.240	-
predicted_SLG	0.118	-
predicted_SO	1.088	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.109	-0.126
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.398	-0.337
predicted_AVG	0.101	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.312	0.106
predicted_H	0.323	0.003
predicted_HBP	0.010	-
predicted_HR	0.003	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.189	0.000
predicted_R	0.145	-0.120
predicted_RBI	0.245	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.118	0.000
predicted_SO	0.982	-0.106

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.73), rates preserved: AVG=0.086 HR/AB=0.001

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, BvP AVG=0.250)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	0.0667	0.1667	0.0667	0.0667	0.0000	0.0667	0.1333	0.2667
last_10	0.35	10	-	32.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	10.000	0.0938	0.1892	0.0938	0.0938	0.0000	0.0938	0.1250	0.3125
season	0.20	34	-	127.000	24.000	8.000	1.000	9.000	9.000	7.000	37.000	0.1890	0.2409	0.2756	0.1890	0.0079	0.0709	0.0551	0.2913

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0410
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.2170
predicted_AVG	0.1006
predicted_BB	0.3690
predicted_H	0.3240
predicted_HBP	0.0100
predicted_HR	0.0050
predicted_OBP	0.1894
predicted_R	0.0810
predicted_RBI	0.2480
predicted_SLG	0.1180
predicted_SO	0.9250

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2350	0.0410	0.1089	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7350	3.2170	3.3983	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1010	0.1006	0.1007	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2060	0.3690	0.3120	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3200	0.3240	0.3226	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0100	0.0100	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0050	0.0033	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1890	0.1894	0.1893	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2650	0.0810	0.1454	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2400	0.2480	0.2452	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1180	0.1180	0.1180	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0880	0.9250	0.9821	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.189

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260506_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	678662
playerID	678662
playerName	Ezequiel Tovar
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	COL
teamID	9

Chase Dollander (801403) · PITCHER · Starter · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 8

All-history rows before 20260508: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.750	6.000	0.250	-4.000
predicted_IP	4.100	4.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.550	5.100	-0.450	-1.000
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	-	Pitching_SO	5.250	3.000	-1.250	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 4.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	24.200	8.000	18.000	8.000	28.000	1.000	2.9189	1.0541	0.3243	0.7297	0.3243	1.1351	0.0405
last_10	0.35	8	37.100	14.000	31.000	12.000	42.000	4.000	3.3750	1.1518	0.3750	0.8304	0.3214	1.1250	0.1071
season	0.20	8	37.100	14.000	31.000	12.000	42.000	4.000	3.3750	1.1518	0.3750	0.8304	0.3214	1.1250	0.1071

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.5540
predicted_ER	1.6960
predicted_ERA	3.1698
predicted_H	3.7810
predicted_HR	0.3720
predicted_IP	4.2000
predicted_SO	5.4410
predicted_WHIP	1.1078

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	1.5540	1.3601	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	1.6960	1.8024	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.1698	3.1698	form_only
predicted_H	5.0000	3.7810	4.2077	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.3720	0.5918	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.1000	4.2000	4.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	4.0000	5.4410	4.9367	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1078	1.1078	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.1
H	5
R	2
ER	2
BB	1
SO	4
HR	1
BF	21
Pitches	89

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	26
Pitching_ER	6
Pitching_ERA	3.38
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	6
Pitching_H	8
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.1
Pitching_Pitches	97
Pitching_R	6
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	61
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260502_ATL@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	801403
playerID	801403
playerName	Chase Dollander
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	COL
teamID	9

Jimmy Herget (623474) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 13

All-history rows before 20260508: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.538	3.000	-0.538	-3.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.969	1.000	0.231	0.200
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.077	0.000	0.923	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	5.000	9.000	2.000	8.000	1.000	9.0000	2.2000	1.0000	1.8000	0.4000	1.6000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	11.000	7.000	13.000	3.000	11.000	1.000	5.7273	1.4545	0.6364	1.1818	0.2727	1.0000	0.0909
season	0.20	13	14.000	7.000	15.000	3.000	14.000	1.000	4.5000	1.2857	0.5000	1.0714	0.2143	1.0000	0.0714

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3180
predicted_ER	0.7730
predicted_ERA	6.9546
predicted_H	1.4380
predicted_HR	0.1360
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.2700
predicted_WHIP	1.7562

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3180	0.2067	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.7730	0.5025	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	6.9546	6.9546	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.4380	0.9347	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1360	0.0884	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.0000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.2700	1.5255	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.7562	1.7562	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	4.50
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	28
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	19
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_ATL@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	623474
playerID	623474
playerName	Jimmy Herget
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	COL
teamID	9

Antonio Senzatela (622608) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 11

All-history rows before 20260508: 11

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.273	0.000	0.727	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.936	2.000	-0.936	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	2.000	2.000	-2.000	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	10.000	2.000	6.000	4.000	5.000	1.8000	1.0000	0.2000	0.6000	0.4000	0.5000
last_10	0.35	10	21.200	3.000	12.000	6.000	19.000	1.2462	0.8308	0.1385	0.5538	0.2769	0.8769
season	0.20	11	24.100	3.000	13.000	7.000	22.000	1.1096	0.8219	0.1233	0.5343	0.2877	0.9041

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6910
predicted_ER	0.3370
predicted_ERA	1.4681
predicted_H	1.1790
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	2.0000
predicted_SO	1.4730
predicted_WHIP	0.9052

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.6910	0.7992	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.3370	0.5691	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.4681	1.4681	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	1.1790	1.4664	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	2.0000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.4730	0.9575	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9052	0.9052	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	8
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.11
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	23
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	622608
playerID	622608
playerName	Antonio Senzatela
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	COL
teamID	9

Victor Vodnik (680767) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 13

All-history rows before 20260508: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.846	0.000	2.154	3.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.015	1.000	-0.015	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.923	1.000	0.077	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	9.000	9.000	4.000	7.000	1.000	17.3571	2.7857	1.9286	1.9286	0.8571	1.5000	0.2143
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	9.000	14.000	8.000	11.000	1.000	7.5938	2.0625	0.8438	1.3125	0.7500	1.0312	0.0938
season	0.20	13	13.200	11.000	19.000	8.000	12.000	2.000	7.2439	1.9756	0.8049	1.3902	0.5854	0.8780	0.1463

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.7650
predicted_ER	1.3240
predicted_ERA	11.9173
predicted_H	1.6050
predicted_HR	0.1590
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.2120
predicted_WHIP	2.3706

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.7650	0.8473	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	1.3240	1.9106	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	11.9173	11.9173	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	1.6050	1.7432	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.1590	0.4533	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.2120	1.1378	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	2.3706	2.3706	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	3
ER	3
BB	1
SO	1
HR	1
BF	6
Pitches	29

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	7.24
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_ATL@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	680767
playerID	680767
playerName	Victor Vodnik
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	COL
teamID	9

Home Team: PHI

Kyle Schwarber (656941) · BATTER · DH · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 38

All-history rows before 20260508: 38

System season_avg: 0.2160

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2158

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.184	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.184	0.000	0.816	1.000
predicted_3B	0.026	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_AB	3.658	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.658	4.000	-0.658	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.250	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.216	0.500	0.118	-0.167
predicted_BB	0.684	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.684	0.000	0.316	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.880	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.789	2.000	0.211	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.316	1.000	-0.316	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.349	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.355	0.500	0.145	0.000
predicted_R	0.632	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.632	1.000	0.368	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.553	1.000	-0.553	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.518	0.667	0.667	Hitting_SLG	0.540	1.250	0.127	-0.583
predicted_SO	1.368	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.368	0.000	-0.368	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.184	-
predicted_3B	0.026	-
predicted_AB	3.658	-
predicted_AVG	0.250	-
predicted_BB	0.684	-
predicted_H	0.880	-
predicted_HR	0.240	-
predicted_OBP	0.349	-
predicted_R	0.632	-
predicted_RBI	0.320	-
predicted_SLG	0.518	-
predicted_SO	1.368	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.216	0.032
predicted_3B	0.013	-0.013
predicted_AB	3.768	0.110
predicted_AVG	0.250	0.000
predicted_BB	0.609	-0.075
predicted_H	0.931	0.051
predicted_HBP	0.022	-
predicted_HR	0.254	0.014
predicted_OBP	0.349	0.000
predicted_R	0.640	0.008
predicted_RBI	0.338	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.518	0.000
predicted_SO	1.171	-0.197

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.77), rates preserved: AVG=0.247 HR/AB=0.067

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	4.000	0.2500	0.3182	0.4500	0.2500	0.0500	0.0500	0.1000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	10.000	3.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	7.000	7.000	12.000	0.2703	0.3864	0.5946	0.2703	0.0811	0.1081	0.1892	0.3243
season	0.20	38	-	139.000	30.000	7.000	1.000	12.000	21.000	24.000	26.000	52.000	0.2158	0.3550	0.5396	0.2158	0.0863	0.1511	0.1870	0.3741

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2330
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.8270
predicted_AVG	0.2503
predicted_BB	0.5690
predicted_H	0.9580
predicted_HBP	0.0220
predicted_HR	0.2610
predicted_OBP	0.3494
predicted_R	0.6440
predicted_RBI	0.3470
predicted_SLG	0.5185
predicted_SO	1.0650

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1840	0.2330	0.2158	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0260	0.0060	0.0130	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6580	3.8270	3.7679	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2500	0.2503	0.2502	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6840	0.5690	0.6092	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8800	0.9580	0.9307	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0220	0.0220	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2400	0.2610	0.2537	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3490	0.3494	0.3493	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6320	0.6440	0.6398	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3200	0.3470	0.3376	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5180	0.5185	0.5183	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3680	1.0650	1.1711	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.216

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH-1B
gameID	20260507_OAK@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	656941
playerID	656941
playerName	Kyle Schwarber
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	PHI
teamID	21

Brandon Marsh (669016) · BATTER · LF · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 31

All-history rows before 20260508: 31

System season_avg: 0.3330

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3333

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_2B	0.194	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.194	0.000	-0.194
predicted_3B	0.032	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.032	0.000	-0.032
predicted_AB	3.871	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.871	4.000	0.129
predicted_AVG	0.417	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.333	0.250	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.129	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.129	0.000	-0.129
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.540	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.290	1.000	-0.290
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.129	0.000	-0.129
predicted_OBP	0.439	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.354	0.250	-0.104
predicted_R	0.548	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.548	0.000	-0.548
predicted_RBI	0.430	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.613	0.000	-0.613
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.097	0.000	-0.097
predicted_SLG	0.549	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.500	0.250	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.774	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.774	1.000	0.226

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.194	-
predicted_3B	0.032	-
predicted_AB	3.871	-
predicted_AVG	0.417	-
predicted_BB	0.129	-
predicted_H	1.540	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.439	-
predicted_R	0.548	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.549	-
predicted_SO	0.774	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.197	0.003
predicted_3B	0.096	0.064
predicted_AB	4.019	0.148
predicted_AVG	0.417	0.000
predicted_BB	0.143	0.014
predicted_H	1.652	0.112
predicted_HBP	0.042	-
predicted_HR	0.025	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.439	0.000
predicted_R	0.598	0.050
predicted_RBI	0.463	0.033
predicted_SLG	0.549	0.000
predicted_SO	0.708	-0.066

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.02), rates preserved: AVG=0.411 HR/AB=0.006

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	2.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	2.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.871

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	10.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	0.4762	0.5000	0.6190	0.4762	0.0000	0.0952	0.0476	0.1429
last_10	0.35	10	-	41.000	16.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	5.000	7.000	1.000	7.000	0.3902	0.4091	0.4878	0.3902	0.0000	0.1220	0.0244	0.1707
season	0.20	31	-	120.000	40.000	6.000	1.000	4.000	19.000	17.000	4.000	24.000	0.3333	0.3543	0.5000	0.3333	0.0333	0.1583	0.0333	0.2000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1990
predicted_3B	0.1300
predicted_AB	4.0990
predicted_AVG	0.4175
predicted_BB	0.1500
predicted_H	1.7120
predicted_HBP	0.0420
predicted_HR	0.0270
predicted_OBP	0.4390
predicted_R	0.6250
predicted_RBI	0.4800
predicted_SLG	0.5493
predicted_SO	0.6720

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1940	0.1990	0.1973	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0320	0.1300	0.0957	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8710	4.0990	4.0192	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.4170	0.4175	0.4173	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1290	0.1500	0.1426	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.5400	1.7120	1.6518	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0420	0.0420	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0270	0.0245	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4390	0.4390	0.4390	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5480	0.6250	0.5980	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.4800	0.4625	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5490	0.5493	0.5492	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7740	0.6720	0.7077	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.333

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260507_OAK@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	669016
playerID	669016
playerName	Brandon Marsh
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	PHI
teamID	21

J.T. Realmuto (592663) · BATTER · C · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 20

All-history rows before 20260508: 20

System season_avg: 0.2650

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2647

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.150	0.000	-0.150	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.400	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.400	4.000	-0.400	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.263	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.265	0.500	-0.265	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.250	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.250	0.000	0.750	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.810	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.900	2.000	-0.900	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.276	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.329	0.500	-0.079	-0.250
predicted_R	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.350	0.000	-0.350	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.480	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.350	0.000	-0.350	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.316	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.353	0.500	-0.353	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.600	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.600	0.000	0.400	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.150	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.400	-
predicted_AVG	0.263	-
predicted_BB	0.250	-
predicted_H	0.810	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.276	-
predicted_R	0.350	-
predicted_RBI	0.480	-
predicted_SLG	0.316	-
predicted_SO	0.600	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.153	0.003
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.481	0.081
predicted_AVG	0.263	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.121	-0.129
predicted_H	0.886	0.076
predicted_HBP	0.021	-
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.276	-0.000
predicted_R	0.353	0.003
predicted_RBI	0.524	0.044
predicted_SLG	0.316	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.394	-0.206

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.48), rates preserved: AVG=0.255 HR/AB=0.003

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	0.2222	0.2222	0.2778	0.2222	0.0000	0.1667	0.0000	0.0556
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	11.000	1.000	0.000	6.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	0.3143	0.3143	0.3429	0.3143	0.0000	0.1714	0.0000	0.0571
season	0.20	20	-	68.000	18.000	3.000	1.000	7.000	7.000	5.000	12.000	0.2647	0.3289	0.3529	0.2647	0.0147	0.1029	0.0735	0.1765

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1540
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.5250
predicted_AVG	0.2629
predicted_BB	0.0520
predicted_H	0.9270
predicted_HBP	0.0210
predicted_HR	0.0100
predicted_OBP	0.2758
predicted_R	0.3550
predicted_RBI	0.5480
predicted_SLG	0.3156
predicted_SO	0.2830

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1500	0.1540	0.1526	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4000	3.5250	3.4813	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2630	0.2629	0.2629	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2500	0.0520	0.1213	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8100	0.9270	0.8861	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0210	0.0210	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0100	0.0100	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2760	0.2758	0.2759	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3500	0.3550	0.3532	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4800	0.5480	0.5242	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3160	0.3156	0.3157	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6000	0.2830	0.3940	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.265

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	1
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260506_OAK@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	592663
playerID	592663
playerName	J.T. Realmuto
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	PHI
teamID	21

Bryson Stott (681082) · BATTER · 2B · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 28

All-history rows before 20260508: 28

System season_avg: 0.2040

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2039

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.107	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.107	0.000	-0.107	0.000
predicted_3B	0.071	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_AB	3.679	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.679	3.000	0.321	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.184	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.204	0.000	0.296	0.500
predicted_BB	0.214	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.214	0.000	-0.214	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.610	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.750	0.000	1.250	2.000
predicted_HR	0.280	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.107	0.000	0.893	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.209	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.255	0.000	0.245	0.500
predicted_R	0.321	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.321	0.000	0.679	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.810	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	0.429	0.000	1.571	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.214	0.000	-0.214	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.526	1.250	1.250	Hitting_SLG	0.359	0.000	0.891	1.250
predicted_SO	0.679	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.679	1.000	0.321	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.107	-
predicted_3B	0.071	-
predicted_AB	3.679	-
predicted_AVG	0.184	-
predicted_BB	0.214	-
predicted_H	0.610	-
predicted_HR	0.280	-
predicted_OBP	0.209	-
predicted_R	0.321	-
predicted_RBI	0.810	-
predicted_SLG	0.526	-
predicted_SO	0.679	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.133	0.026
predicted_3B	0.079	0.008
predicted_AB	3.638	-0.041
predicted_AVG	0.184	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.148	-0.066
predicted_H	0.646	0.036
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.297	0.017
predicted_OBP	0.209	-0.000
predicted_R	0.385	0.064
predicted_RBI	0.861	0.051
predicted_SLG	0.526	0.000
predicted_SO	0.684	0.005

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.68), rates preserved: AVG=0.176 HR/AB=0.081

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	0.1667	0.1667	0.5556	0.1667	0.1111	0.2778	0.0000	0.1667
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	7.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	10.000	5.000	2.000	8.000	0.1944	0.2368	0.5833	0.1944	0.0833	0.2778	0.0556	0.2222
season	0.20	28	-	103.000	21.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	12.000	9.000	6.000	19.000	0.2039	0.2545	0.3592	0.2039	0.0291	0.1165	0.0583	0.1845

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1470
predicted_3B	0.0840
predicted_AB	3.6160
predicted_AVG	0.1838
predicted_BB	0.1120
predicted_H	0.6650
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.3070
predicted_OBP	0.2088
predicted_R	0.4200
predicted_RBI	0.8880
predicted_SLG	0.5260
predicted_SO	0.6860

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1070	0.1470	0.1330	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0710	0.0840	0.0794	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6790	3.6160	3.6380	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1840	0.1838	0.1839	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2140	0.1120	0.1477	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6100	0.6650	0.6458	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2800	0.3070	0.2975	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2090	0.2088	0.2089	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3210	0.4200	0.3854	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.8100	0.8880	0.8607	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5260	0.5260	0.5260	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6790	0.6860	0.6836	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.204

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260507_OAK@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	681082
playerID	681082
playerName	Bryson Stott
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	PHI
teamID	21

Edmundo Sosa (624641) · BATTER · 3B · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 14

All-history rows before 20260508: 14

System season_avg: 0.2550

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2553

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.214	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.214	0.000	-0.214	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.357	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.357	3.000	0.643	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.276	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.255	0.000	0.245	0.500
predicted_BB	0.071	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.780	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.857	0.000	1.143	2.000
predicted_HR	0.010	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.071	0.000	0.929	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.279	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.271	0.000	0.229	0.500
predicted_R	0.286	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.286	0.000	0.714	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.430	3.000	3.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	2.500	3.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.312	1.250	1.250	Hitting_SLG	0.383	0.000	0.867	1.250
predicted_SO	0.786	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.786	1.000	-0.786	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.214	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.357	-
predicted_AVG	0.276	-
predicted_BB	0.071	-
predicted_H	0.780	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.279	-
predicted_R	0.286	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.312	-
predicted_SO	0.786	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.126	-0.088
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.379	0.022
predicted_AVG	0.276	0.000
predicted_BB	0.034	-0.037
predicted_H	0.881	0.101
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.013	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.279	0.000
predicted_R	0.300	0.014
predicted_RBI	0.482	0.052
predicted_SLG	0.312	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.816	0.030

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.38), rates preserved: AVG=0.261 HR/AB=0.004

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	3.000	3.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	0.2941	0.2941	0.2941	0.2941	0.0000	0.1765	0.0000	0.2353
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	9.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	9.000	0.2647	0.2647	0.2941	0.2647	0.0000	0.1177	0.0000	0.2647
season	0.20	14	-	47.000	12.000	3.000	1.000	7.000	4.000	1.000	11.000	0.2553	0.2708	0.3830	0.2553	0.0213	0.1489	0.0213	0.2340

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0780
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.3910
predicted_AVG	0.2760
predicted_BB	0.0140
predicted_H	0.9360
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0140
predicted_OBP	0.2791
predicted_R	0.3070
predicted_RBI	0.5100
predicted_SLG	0.3119
predicted_SO	0.8320

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2140	0.0780	0.1256	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3570	3.3910	3.3791	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2760	0.2760	0.2760	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0710	0.0140	0.0339	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7800	0.9360	0.8814	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0140	0.0126	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2790	0.2791	0.2791	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2860	0.3070	0.2996	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.5100	0.4820	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3120	0.3119	0.3119	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7860	0.8320	0.8159	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	3
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.255

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B-SS
gameID	20260507_OAK@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	624641
playerID	624641
playerName	Edmundo Sosa
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	PHI
teamID	21

Justin Crawford (702222) · BATTER · CF · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 31

All-history rows before 20260508: 31

System season_avg: 0.2740

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2736

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.226	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.226	0.000	-0.226	0.000
predicted_3B	0.065	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.065	0.000	-0.065	0.000
predicted_AB	3.419	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.419	3.000	0.581	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.288	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.274	0.333	-0.274	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.258	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.258	0.000	-0.258	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.065	0.000	-0.065	0.000
predicted_H	0.810	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.935	1.000	-0.935	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.325	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.336	0.333	-0.336	-0.333
predicted_R	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.290	0.000	-0.290	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.226	0.000	-0.226	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.097	0.000	-0.097	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.399	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.377	0.333	-0.377	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.742	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.742	1.000	0.258	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.226	-
predicted_3B	0.065	-
predicted_AB	3.419	-
predicted_AVG	0.288	-
predicted_BB	0.258	-
predicted_H	0.810	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.325	-
predicted_R	0.290	-
predicted_RBI	0.290	-
predicted_SLG	0.399	-
predicted_SO	0.742	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.274	0.048
predicted_3B	0.053	-0.012
predicted_AB	3.500	0.081
predicted_AVG	0.288	0.000
predicted_BB	0.207	-0.051
predicted_H	0.948	0.138
predicted_HBP	0.013	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.325	-0.000
predicted_R	0.244	-0.046
predicted_RBI	0.339	0.049
predicted_SLG	0.399	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.773	0.031

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.271 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	0.2941	0.3333	0.4118	0.2941	0.1177	0.0588	0.2353
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	11.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	8.000	0.2895	0.3077	0.3947	0.2895	0.1053	0.0263	0.2105
season	0.20	31	-	106.000	29.000	7.000	2.000	7.000	9.000	8.000	23.000	0.2736	0.3362	0.3774	0.2736	0.0660	0.0755	0.2170

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3000
predicted_3B	0.0460
predicted_AB	3.5440
predicted_AVG	0.2884
predicted_BB	0.1800
predicted_H	1.0220
predicted_HBP	0.0130
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.3249
predicted_R	0.2190
predicted_RBI	0.3650
predicted_SLG	0.3989
predicted_SO	0.7900

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2260	0.3000	0.2741	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0650	0.0460	0.0527	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4190	3.5440	3.5003	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2880	0.2884	0.2883	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2580	0.1800	0.2073	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8100	1.0220	0.9478	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0130	0.0130	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3250	0.3249	0.3249	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2900	0.2190	0.2439	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2900	0.3650	0.3387	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3990	0.3989	0.3989	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7420	0.7900	0.7732	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.274

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260507_OAK@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	702222
playerID	702222
playerName	Justin Crawford
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	PHI
teamID	21

Trea Turner (607208) · BATTER · SS · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 37

All-history rows before 20260508: 37

System season_avg: 0.2350

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2353

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.189	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.189	0.000	-0.189	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.135	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.135	3.000	-0.135	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.216	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.235	0.000	0.015	0.250
predicted_BB	0.324	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.324	0.000	-0.324	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.890	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.973	0.000	0.027	1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.108	0.000	-0.108	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.228	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.291	0.000	-0.041	0.250
predicted_R	0.622	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.622	0.000	0.378	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.324	0.000	-0.324	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.081	0.000	-0.081	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.322	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.359	0.000	-0.109	0.250
predicted_SO	0.919	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.919	1.000	-0.919	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.189	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.135	-
predicted_AVG	0.216	-
predicted_BB	0.324	-
predicted_H	0.890	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.228	-
predicted_R	0.622	-
predicted_RBI	0.250	-
predicted_SLG	0.322	-
predicted_SO	0.919	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.253	0.064
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.273	0.138
predicted_AVG	0.216	0.000
predicted_BB	0.158	-0.166
predicted_H	0.923	0.033
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.055	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.228	-0.000
predicted_R	0.633	0.011
predicted_RBI	0.257	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.322	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.064	0.145

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.27), rates preserved: AVG=0.216 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 4.135

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	22.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	0.000	6.000	0.1818	0.1818	0.2727	0.1818	0.0000	0.0454	0.0000	0.2727
last_10	0.35	10	-	44.000	11.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	7.000	0.000	12.000	0.2500	0.2500	0.3636	0.2500	0.0227	0.0682	0.0000	0.2727
season	0.20	37	-	153.000	36.000	7.000	4.000	12.000	23.000	12.000	34.000	0.2353	0.2909	0.3595	0.2353	0.0261	0.0784	0.0784	0.2222

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2870
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.3470
predicted_AVG	0.2164
predicted_BB	0.0680
predicted_H	0.9410
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0570
predicted_OBP	0.2275
predicted_R	0.6390
predicted_RBI	0.2610
predicted_SLG	0.3219
predicted_SO	1.1420

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1890	0.2870	0.2527	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1350	4.3470	4.2728	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2160	0.2164	0.2163	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3240	0.0680	0.1576	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8900	0.9410	0.9232	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0570	0.0546	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2280	0.2275	0.2277	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6220	0.6390	0.6331	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2500	0.2610	0.2571	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3220	0.3219	0.3219	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9190	1.1420	1.0639	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.235

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260507_OAK@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	607208
playerID	607208
playerName	Trea Turner
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	PHI
teamID	21

Bryce Harper (547180) · BATTER · 1B · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 38

All-history rows before 20260508: 38

System season_avg: 0.2750

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2754

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.237	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.237	0.000	0.763	1.000
predicted_3B	0.026	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_AB	3.632	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.632	1.000	-0.632	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.354	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.275	0.000	0.058	0.333
predicted_BB	0.553	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.553	1.000	0.447	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_H	1.250	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000
predicted_HR	0.440	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.237	0.000	-0.237	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.452	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.369	0.500	0.131	0.000
predicted_R	0.605	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.605	0.000	0.395	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.670	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.605	0.000	-0.605	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.834	0.667	0.667	Hitting_SLG	0.551	0.000	0.116	0.667
predicted_SO	0.658	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.658	0.000	-0.658	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.237	-
predicted_3B	0.026	-
predicted_AB	3.632	-
predicted_AVG	0.354	-
predicted_BB	0.553	-
predicted_H	1.250	-
predicted_HR	0.440	-
predicted_OBP	0.452	-
predicted_R	0.605	-
predicted_RBI	0.670	-
predicted_SLG	0.834	-
predicted_SO	0.658	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.323	0.086
predicted_3B	0.012	-0.014
predicted_AB	3.511	-0.121
predicted_AVG	0.354	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.601	0.048
predicted_H	1.230	-0.020
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.430	-0.010
predicted_OBP	0.452	0.000
predicted_R	0.827	0.222
predicted_RBI	0.662	-0.008
predicted_SLG	0.834	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.404	-0.254

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.63), rates preserved: AVG=0.339 HR/AB=0.118

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	7.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	6.000	3.000	0.000	0.4118	0.5000	1.0588	0.4118	0.1765	0.2353	0.1765	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	11.000	4.000	0.000	3.000	5.000	8.000	7.000	4.000	0.3235	0.4390	0.7059	0.3235	0.0882	0.1471	0.2059	0.1177
season	0.20	38	-	138.000	38.000	9.000	1.000	9.000	23.000	23.000	21.000	25.000	0.2754	0.3688	0.5507	0.2754	0.0652	0.1667	0.1522	0.1812

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3690
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.4460
predicted_AVG	0.3536
predicted_BB	0.6270
predicted_H	1.2190
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.4250
predicted_OBP	0.4524
predicted_R	0.9460
predicted_RBI	0.6570
predicted_SLG	0.8337
predicted_SO	0.2670

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2370	0.3690	0.3228	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0260	0.0050	0.0123	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6320	3.4460	3.5111	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3540	0.3536	0.3537	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5530	0.6270	0.6011	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2500	1.2190	1.2299	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.4400	0.4250	0.4303	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4520	0.4524	0.4523	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6050	0.9460	0.8266	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6700	0.6570	0.6616	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.8340	0.8337	0.8338	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6580	0.2670	0.4039	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.275

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	1
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260507_OAK@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	547180
playerID	547180
playerName	Bryce Harper
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	PHI
teamID	21

Adolis García (666969) · BATTER · RF · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 36

All-history rows before 20260508: 36

System season_avg: 0.2410

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2406

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.139	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.139	0.000	-0.139	0.000
predicted_3B	0.028	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_AB	3.694	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.694	4.000	0.306	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.265	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.241	0.250	0.009	0.000
predicted_BB	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.940	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.889	1.000	0.111	0.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.309	0.250	-0.059	0.000
predicted_R	0.306	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.306	0.000	0.694	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.401	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.361	0.250	-0.111	0.000
predicted_SO	1.056	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.056	1.000	0.944	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.139	-
predicted_3B	0.028	-
predicted_AB	3.694	-
predicted_AVG	0.265	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.940	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.306	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.401	-
predicted_SO	1.056	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.089	-0.050
predicted_3B	0.014	-0.014
predicted_AB	3.691	-0.003
predicted_AVG	0.265	0.000
predicted_BB	0.286	-0.047
predicted_H	0.965	0.025
predicted_HBP	0.011	-
predicted_HR	0.142	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000
predicted_R	0.377	0.071
predicted_RBI	0.450	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.401	0.000
predicted_SO	0.983	-0.073

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.69), rates preserved: AVG=0.261 HR/AB=0.038

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	0.2778	0.3000	0.4444	0.2778	0.0556	0.1111	0.0556	0.2778
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	10.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	5.000	3.000	8.000	0.2632	0.3095	0.3684	0.2632	0.0263	0.1579	0.0790	0.2105
season	0.20	36	-	133.000	32.000	5.000	1.000	3.000	12.000	11.000	12.000	38.000	0.2406	0.3087	0.3609	0.2406	0.0226	0.0902	0.0902	0.2857

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0620
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.6890
predicted_AVG	0.2652
predicted_BB	0.2610
predicted_H	0.9780
predicted_HBP	0.0110
predicted_HR	0.1430
predicted_OBP	0.3051
predicted_R	0.4150
predicted_RBI	0.4550
predicted_SLG	0.4011
predicted_SO	0.9440

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1390	0.0620	0.0890	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0280	0.0060	0.0137	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6940	3.6890	3.6907	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2650	0.2652	0.2651	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.2610	0.2862	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9400	0.9780	0.9647	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0110	0.0110	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1430	0.1419	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3051	0.3051	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3060	0.4150	0.3768	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.4550	0.4497	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4010	0.4011	0.4011	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0560	0.9440	0.9832	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.241

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260507_OAK@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	666969
playerID	666969
playerName	Adolis García
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	PHI
teamID	21

Jesús Luzardo (666200) · PITCHER · Starter · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 7

All-history rows before 20260508: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	3.286	2.000	-1.286	0.000
predicted_IP	3.200	3.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.543	6.100	-2.343	-2.900
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	-	Pitching_SO	7.286	10.000	-3.286	-6.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 3.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	28.000	16.000	32.000	8.000	33.000	2.000	5.1429	1.4286	0.5714	1.1429	0.2857	1.1786	0.0714
last_10	0.35	7	40.200	23.000	43.000	9.000	51.000	4.000	5.0902	1.2787	0.5656	1.0574	0.2213	1.2541	0.0984
season	0.20	7	40.200	23.000	43.000	9.000	51.000	4.000	5.0902	1.2787	0.5656	1.0574	0.2213	1.2541	0.0984

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.4180
predicted_ER	3.2200
predicted_ERA	5.1139
predicted_H	6.2100
predicted_HR	0.4890
predicted_IP	5.2000
predicted_SO	6.9140
predicted_WHIP	1.3462

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	1.4180	1.2717	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	3.2200	2.7930	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.1139	5.1139	form_only
predicted_H	6.0000	6.2100	6.1365	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.4890	0.3179	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	3.2000	5.2000	5.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	4.0000	6.9140	5.8941	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3462	1.3462	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	3.2
H	6
R	2
ER	2
BB	1
SO	4
HR	0
BF	22
Pitches	78

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	27
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	5.09
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	5
Pitching_H	8
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.1
Pitching_Pitches	102
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	10
Pitching_Strikes	66
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_PHI@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	666200
playerID	666200
playerName	Jesús Luzardo
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	PHI
teamID	21

Jhoan Duran (661395) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 9

All-history rows before 20260508: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.222	1.000	-0.222	-1.000
predicted_IP	2.100	2.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.800	1.000	1.300	1.100
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.111	2.000	0.889	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 2.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	1.8000	1.0000	0.2000	0.4000	0.6000	1.0000
last_10	0.35	8	7.200	2.000	6.000	3.000	10.000	2.3478	1.1739	0.2609	0.7826	0.3913	1.3043
season	0.20	8	7.200	2.000	6.000	3.000	10.000	2.3478	1.1739	0.2609	0.7826	0.3913	1.3043

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4850
predicted_ER	0.2330
predicted_ERA	2.1013
predicted_H	0.6100
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1670
predicted_WHIP	1.0956

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4850	0.3152	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2330	0.1515	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.1013	2.1013	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.6100	0.7465	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	2.1000	1.0000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.1670	1.4586	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0956	1.0956	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	2.35
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	27
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_OAK@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	661395
playerID	661395
playerName	Jhoan Duran
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PHI
teamID	21

Brad Keller (641745) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 16

All-history rows before 20260508: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.438	0.000	-0.438	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.906	1.000	0.094	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	2.000	4.000	3.000	7.000	0.000	3.3750	1.3125	0.3750	0.7500	0.5625	1.3125	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	4.000	8.000	5.000	12.000	1.000	3.7241	1.3448	0.4138	0.8276	0.5172	1.2414	0.1035
season	0.20	16	15.200	7.000	13.000	6.000	16.000	2.000	4.0213	1.2128	0.4468	0.8298	0.3830	1.0213	0.1277

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5110
predicted_ER	0.4030
predicted_ERA	3.6264
predicted_H	0.7930
predicted_HR	0.0620
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.2290
predicted_WHIP	1.3039

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.5110	0.6822	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4030	0.2620	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.6264	3.6264	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7930	0.5155	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0620	0.0403	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.2290	1.4989	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3039	1.3039	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	2
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.02
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	22
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_OAK@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	641745
playerID	641745
playerName	Brad Keller
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PHI
teamID	21

José Alvarado (621237) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 17

All-history rows before 20260508: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.471	0.000	0.529	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.547	0.200	0.453	0.800
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.941	2.000	1.059	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	0.000	6.000	2.000	5.000	0.0000	2.0000	0.0000	1.5000	0.5000	1.2500
last_10	0.35	10	7.200	3.000	12.000	4.000	9.000	3.5217	2.0870	0.3913	1.5652	0.5217	1.1739
season	0.20	17	12.100	8.000	19.000	7.000	16.000	5.8378	2.1081	0.6486	1.5405	0.5676	1.2973

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3470
predicted_ER	0.1780
predicted_ERA	2.4002
predicted_H	1.0210
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.8220
predicted_WHIP	2.0521

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3470	0.2256	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.1780	0.4657	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.4002	2.4002	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.0210	0.6636	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.8220	1.2343	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	2.0521	2.0521	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.84
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_OAK@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	621237
playerID	621237
playerName	José Alvarado
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PHI
teamID	21

Orion Kerkering (689147) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 14

All-history rows before 20260508: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.214	0.000	-0.214	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.829	0.100	0.171	0.900
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.643	0.000	-0.643	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	0.000	0.0000	0.5000	0.0000	0.5000	0.0000	0.7500	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.200	1.000	5.000	5.000	5.000	1.000	1.0385	1.1538	0.1154	0.5769	0.5769	0.5769	0.1154
season	0.20	14	13.000	3.000	9.000	6.000	9.000	1.000	2.0769	1.1538	0.2308	0.6923	0.4615	0.6923	0.0769

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2500
predicted_ER	0.0740
predicted_ERA	0.7789
predicted_H	0.4810
predicted_HR	0.0470
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.5760
predicted_WHIP	0.8596

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.2500	0.5125	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.0740	0.0481	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.7789	0.7789	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.4810	0.6626	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0470	0.0306	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.5760	0.3744	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.8596	0.8596	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	22

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	1
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.08
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	5
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	4
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_OAK@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	689147
playerID	689147
playerName	Orion Kerkering
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PHI
teamID	21

20260508_DET@KC

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3, "confidence": 0.5429899536471938, "home_win_probability": 0.4570100463528062, "away_win_probability": 0.5429899536471938, "predicted_score_text": "DET 5 - 3 KC", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to final winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "predicted_score_text": "DET 5 - 4 KC", "confidence": 0.5429899536471938, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score", "final_prediction_synced": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "DET 5 - 4 KC", "winner": "DET"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "DET 5 - 3 KC", "winner": "DET"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": -1, "total_run_delta": -1, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"}}

Away Team: DET

Matt Vierling (663837) · BATTER · CF · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 21

All-history rows before 20260508: 21

System season_avg: 0.2330

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2329

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.480	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.476	3.000	0.524	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.222	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.233	0.333	0.017	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.333	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	1.000	0.667	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.770	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.810	1.000	0.190	0.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.048	0.000	-0.048	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.300	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.296	0.500	0.104	-0.100
predicted_R	0.381	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.381	0.000	-0.381	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.760	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.571	0.000	-0.571	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.048	0.000	-0.048	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.406	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.370	0.333	-0.120	-0.083
predicted_SO	0.619	3.000	3.000	Hitting_SO	0.619	0.000	2.381	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.333	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.480	-
predicted_AVG	0.222	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.770	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.300	-
predicted_R	0.381	-
predicted_RBI	0.760	-
predicted_SLG	0.406	-
predicted_SO	0.619	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.287	-0.046
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.564	0.084
predicted_AVG	0.222	0.000
predicted_BB	0.390	0.057
predicted_H	0.791	0.021
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.133	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.300	0.000
predicted_R	0.391	0.010
predicted_RBI	0.777	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.406	0.000
predicted_SO	0.587	-0.032

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.56), rates preserved: AVG=0.222 HR/AB=0.037

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	0.2222	0.3000	0.4444	0.2222	0.0556	0.2222	0.1111	0.1667
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	8.000	3.000	1.000	9.000	4.000	5.000	5.000	0.2162	0.3023	0.3784	0.2162	0.0270	0.2432	0.1351	0.1351
season	0.20	21	-	73.000	17.000	7.000	1.000	12.000	8.000	7.000	13.000	0.2329	0.2963	0.3699	0.2329	0.0137	0.1644	0.0959	0.1781

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2620
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.6100
predicted_AVG	0.2222
predicted_BB	0.4210
predicted_H	0.8020
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1340
predicted_OBP	0.3001
predicted_R	0.3960
predicted_RBI	0.7870
predicted_SLG	0.4064
predicted_SO	0.5700

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3330	0.2620	0.2868	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4800	3.6100	3.5645	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2220	0.2222	0.2221	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.4210	0.3902	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7700	0.8020	0.7908	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1340	0.1326	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3000	0.3001	0.3001	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3810	0.3960	0.3908	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7600	0.7870	0.7775	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4060	0.4064	0.4063	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6190	0.5700	0.5871	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.233

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260506_BOS@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	663837
playerID	663837
playerName	Matt Vierling
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	DET
teamID	10

Wenceel Pérez (672761) · BATTER · RF · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 17

All-history rows before 20260508: 17

System season_avg: 0.1190

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1186

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.059	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.471	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.471	4.000	-0.471	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.196	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.119	0.250	-0.119	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.235	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.235	0.000	-0.235	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.610	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.412	1.000	-0.412	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.241	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.175	0.250	0.075	0.000
predicted_R	0.176	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.176	0.000	-0.176	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.176	1.000	-0.176	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.176	0.000	-0.176	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.209	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.136	0.250	-0.136	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.471	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.471	1.000	-0.471	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.059	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.471	-
predicted_AVG	0.196	-
predicted_BB	0.235	-
predicted_H	0.610	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.241	-
predicted_R	0.176	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.209	-
predicted_SO	0.471	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.052	-0.007
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.492	0.021
predicted_AVG	0.196	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.217	-0.018
predicted_H	0.659	0.049
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.241	-0.000
predicted_R	0.188	0.012
predicted_RBI	0.391	0.031
predicted_SLG	0.209	0.000
predicted_SO	0.514	0.043

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.49), rates preserved: AVG=0.189 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	4.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	0.2222	0.2632	0.2222	0.2222	0.1667	0.0556	0.1667
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	7.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	0.2059	0.2500	0.2353	0.2059	0.0882	0.0588	0.1471
season	0.20	17	-	59.000	7.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	8.000	0.1186	0.1746	0.1356	0.1186	0.0508	0.0678	0.1356

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0480
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.5040
predicted_AVG	0.1958
predicted_BB	0.2070
predicted_H	0.6860
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.2409
predicted_R	0.1950
predicted_RBI	0.4070
predicted_SLG	0.2095
predicted_SO	0.5380

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0590	0.0480	0.0519	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4710	3.5040	3.4924	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1960	0.1958	0.1959	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2350	0.2070	0.2168	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6100	0.6860	0.6594	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2410	0.2409	0.2409	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1760	0.1950	0.1883	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.4070	0.3906	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2090	0.2095	0.2093	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4710	0.5380	0.5145	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.119

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260505_BOS@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	672761
playerID	672761
playerName	Wenceel Pérez
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	DET
teamID	10

Zack Short (670097) · BATTER · SS · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 1

All-history rows before 20260508: 1

System season_avg: 0.0000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.0000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	3.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.000	0.667	0.667	Hitting_AVG	0.000	0.000	0.667	0.667
predicted_BB	0.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.000	0.750	0.750	Hitting_OBP	0.000	0.000	0.750	0.750
predicted_R	0.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SLG	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_SO	1.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.000	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.000	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.000	-
predicted_SLG	0.000	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.000	0.000
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.000	0.000
predicted_R	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.000	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	0.000

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.000 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total SO	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	1	-	3.000	1.000	0.3333
last_10	0.35	1	-	3.000	1.000	0.3333
season	0.20	1	-	3.000	1.000	0.3333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.0000
predicted_AVG	0.0000
predicted_BB	0.0000
predicted_H	0.0000
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.0000
predicted_R	0.0000
predicted_RBI	0.0000
predicted_SLG	0.0000
predicted_SO	1.0000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.0000	3.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.0

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260504_BOS@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	670097
playerID	670097
playerName	Zack Short
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	DET
teamID	10

Jahmai Jones (663330) · BATTER · DH · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 8

All-history rows before 20260508: 8

System season_avg: 0.2730

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2727

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.750	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	2.750	2.000	1.250	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.225	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.273	0.000	-0.273	0.000
predicted_BB	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.125	1.000	-0.125	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_H	0.600	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.750	0.000	-0.750	0.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.271	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.304	0.333	-0.304	-0.333
predicted_R	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.500	1.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.300	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.375	0.000	0.625	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.388	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SO	0.750	3.000	3.000	Hitting_SO	0.750	1.000	2.250	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.750	-
predicted_AVG	0.225	-
predicted_BB	0.125	-
predicted_H	0.600	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.271	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.300	-
predicted_SLG	0.388	-
predicted_SO	0.750	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.235	-0.015
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.648	-0.102
predicted_AVG	0.225	0.000
predicted_BB	0.149	0.024
predicted_H	0.589	-0.011
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.067	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.271	0.000
predicted_R	0.470	-0.030
predicted_RBI	0.295	-0.005
predicted_SLG	0.388	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.768	0.018

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.75), rates preserved: AVG=0.214 HR/AB=0.024

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	1.000	1.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	12.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.1667	0.2308	0.2500	0.1667	0.0000	0.0833	0.0833	0.3333
last_10	0.35	8	-	22.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	1.000	6.000	0.2727	0.3043	0.5000	0.2727	0.0454	0.1364	0.0454	0.2727
season	0.20	8	-	22.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	1.000	6.000	0.2727	0.3043	0.5000	0.2727	0.0454	0.1364	0.0454	0.2727

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2270
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.5930
predicted_AVG	0.2250
predicted_BB	0.1620
predicted_H	0.5830
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0650
predicted_OBP	0.2712
predicted_R	0.4540
predicted_RBI	0.2920
predicted_SLG	0.3875
predicted_SO	0.7780

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.2270	0.2351	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.7500	2.5930	2.6479	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2250	0.2250	0.2250	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1250	0.1620	0.1491	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6000	0.5830	0.5889	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0650	0.0668	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2710	0.2712	0.2711	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.4540	0.4701	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3000	0.2920	0.2948	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3880	0.3875	0.3877	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7500	0.7780	0.7682	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	3
SF	1
HBP	0
season_avg	0.273

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260504_BOS@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	663330
playerID	663330
playerName	Jahmai Jones
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	DET
teamID	10

Spencer Torkelson (679529) · BATTER · 1B · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 35

All-history rows before 20260508: 35

System season_avg: 0.2100

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2101

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.171	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.171	0.000	-0.171	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.400	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.400	3.000	0.600	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.135	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.210	0.000	-0.210	0.000
predicted_BB	0.629	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.629	1.000	-0.629	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_H	0.410	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.714	0.000	-0.714	0.000
predicted_HR	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.171	0.000	-0.171	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.242	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.250	-0.333	-0.250
predicted_R	0.371	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.371	0.000	-0.371	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.328	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.412	0.000	-0.412	0.000
predicted_SO	1.257	4.000	4.000	Hitting_SO	1.257	2.000	2.743	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.171	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.400	-
predicted_AVG	0.135	-
predicted_BB	0.629	-
predicted_H	0.410	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.242	-
predicted_R	0.371	-
predicted_RBI	0.310	-
predicted_SLG	0.328	-
predicted_SO	1.257	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.128	-0.043
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.504	0.104
predicted_AVG	0.135	0.000
predicted_BB	0.556	-0.073
predicted_H	0.456	0.046
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.186	0.016
predicted_OBP	0.242	0.000
predicted_R	0.306	-0.065
predicted_RBI	0.346	0.036
predicted_SLG	0.328	0.000
predicted_SO	1.607	0.350

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.130 HR/AB=0.053

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, BvP AVG=0.333)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	4.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	11.000	0.0556	0.1500	0.2222	0.0556	0.0556	0.1111	0.1111	0.6111
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	7.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	6.000	16.000	0.1944	0.3095	0.4167	0.1944	0.0556	0.0833	0.1667	0.4444
season	0.20	35	-	119.000	25.000	6.000	6.000	14.000	13.000	22.000	44.000	0.2101	0.3333	0.4118	0.2101	0.0504	0.1177	0.1849	0.3698

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1050
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.5600
predicted_AVG	0.1351
predicted_BB	0.5170
predicted_H	0.4810
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1940
predicted_OBP	0.2425
predicted_R	0.2710
predicted_RBI	0.3660
predicted_SLG	0.3282
predicted_SO	1.7960

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1710	0.1050	0.1281	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4000	3.5600	3.5040	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1350	0.1351	0.1351	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6290	0.5170	0.5562	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4100	0.4810	0.4561	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.1940	0.1856	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2420	0.2425	0.2423	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3710	0.2710	0.3060	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3100	0.3660	0.3464	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3280	0.3282	0.3281	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2570	1.7960	1.6073	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	4
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260506_BOS@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	679529
playerID	679529
playerName	Spencer Torkelson
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	DET
teamID	10

Dillon Dingler (693307) · BATTER · C · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 28

All-history rows before 20260508: 28

System season_avg: 0.2520

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2523

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.214	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.214	0.000	-0.214	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.821	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.821	4.000	0.179	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.235	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.252	0.000	0.248	0.500
predicted_BB	0.250	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.250	0.000	0.750	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.870	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.964	0.000	1.036	2.000
predicted_HR	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.214	0.000	-0.214	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.262	0.600	0.600	Hitting_OBP	0.322	0.000	0.278	0.600
predicted_R	0.429	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.429	0.000	0.571	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.900	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.893	0.000	0.107	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.414	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.477	0.000	0.023	0.500
predicted_SO	0.750	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.750	1.000	0.250	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.214	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.821	-
predicted_AVG	0.235	-
predicted_BB	0.250	-
predicted_H	0.870	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.262	-
predicted_R	0.429	-
predicted_RBI	0.900	-
predicted_SLG	0.414	-
predicted_SO	0.750	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.207	-0.007
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.891	0.070
predicted_AVG	0.235	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.167	-0.083
predicted_H	0.904	0.034
predicted_HBP	0.029	-
predicted_HR	0.165	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.262	0.000
predicted_R	0.288	-0.141
predicted_RBI	0.940	0.040
predicted_SLG	0.414	0.000
predicted_SO	0.776	0.026

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.89), rates preserved: AVG=0.232 HR/AB=0.042

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.821

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	0.2500	0.2500	0.4500	0.2500	0.0500	0.3000	0.0000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	8.000	2.000	1.000	7.000	1.000	2.000	8.000	0.2051	0.2439	0.3333	0.2051	0.0256	0.1795	0.0513	0.2051
season	0.20	28	-	107.000	27.000	6.000	6.000	25.000	12.000	7.000	21.000	0.2523	0.3220	0.4766	0.2523	0.0561	0.2336	0.0654	0.1963

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2030
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.9290
predicted_AVG	0.2347
predicted_BB	0.1220
predicted_H	0.9220
predicted_HBP	0.0290
predicted_HR	0.1680
predicted_OBP	0.2623
predicted_R	0.2120
predicted_RBI	0.9610
predicted_SLG	0.4145
predicted_SO	0.7900

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2140	0.2030	0.2069	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8210	3.9290	3.8912	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2350	0.2347	0.2348	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2500	0.1220	0.1668	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8700	0.9220	0.9038	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0290	0.0290	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.1680	0.1652	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2620	0.2623	0.2622	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4290	0.2120	0.2879	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.9000	0.9610	0.9397	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4140	0.4145	0.4143	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7500	0.7900	0.7760	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.252

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260506_BOS@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	693307
playerID	693307
playerName	Dillon Dingler
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	DET
teamID	10

Hao-Yu Lee (701678) · BATTER · 2B · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 11

All-history rows before 20260508: 11

System season_avg: 0.1670

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1667

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.273	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.273	4.000	0.727	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.147	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_BB	0.273	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.273	0.000	-0.273	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.410	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.545	0.000	-0.545	0.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.224	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.231	0.000	-0.231	0.000
predicted_R	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.273	0.000	-0.273	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.179	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_SO	1.273	3.000	3.000	Hitting_SO	1.273	2.000	1.727	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.273	-
predicted_AVG	0.147	-
predicted_BB	0.273	-
predicted_H	0.410	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.224	-
predicted_R	0.182	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.179	-
predicted_SO	1.273	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.136	-0.046
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.375	0.102
predicted_AVG	0.147	0.000
predicted_BB	0.315	0.042
predicted_H	0.471	0.061
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.224	-0.000
predicted_R	0.192	0.010
predicted_RBI	0.314	0.044
predicted_SLG	0.179	0.000
predicted_SO	1.317	0.044

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.38), rates preserved: AVG=0.140 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	0.1111	0.2000	0.1111	0.1111	0.1111	0.1111	0.3889
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	6.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	13.000	0.1818	0.2500	0.2424	0.1818	0.0909	0.0909	0.3939
season	0.20	11	-	36.000	6.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	14.000	0.1667	0.2308	0.2222	0.1667	0.0833	0.0833	0.3889

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1110
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.4300
predicted_AVG	0.1470
predicted_BB	0.3380
predicted_H	0.5040
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.2237
predicted_R	0.1970
predicted_RBI	0.3380
predicted_SLG	0.1793
predicted_SO	1.3400

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1820	0.1110	0.1358	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2730	3.4300	3.3751	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1470	0.1470	0.1470	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2730	0.3380	0.3153	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4100	0.5040	0.4711	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2240	0.2237	0.2238	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1820	0.1970	0.1917	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.3380	0.3142	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1790	0.1793	0.1792	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2730	1.3400	1.3166	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.167

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260505_BOS@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	701678
playerID	701678
playerName	Hao-Yu Lee
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	DET
teamID	10

Riley Greene (682985) · BATTER · LF · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 37

All-history rows before 20260508: 37

System season_avg: 0.2990

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2985

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.270	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.270	1.000	0.730	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.622	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.622	4.000	0.378	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.304	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.299	0.500	-0.049	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.595	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.595	0.000	-0.595	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_H	1.040	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.081	2.000	-0.081	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.108	0.000	-0.108	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.385	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.397	0.500	-0.147	-0.250
predicted_R	0.649	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.649	0.000	0.351	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.160	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	0.514	0.000	1.486	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.434	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.463	0.750	0.037	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.189	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.189	2.000	0.811	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.270	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.622	-
predicted_AVG	0.304	-
predicted_BB	0.595	-
predicted_H	1.040	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.385	-
predicted_R	0.649	-
predicted_RBI	0.160	-
predicted_SLG	0.434	-
predicted_SO	1.189	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.293	0.023
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.633	0.011
predicted_AVG	0.304	0.000
predicted_BB	0.516	-0.079
predicted_H	1.084	0.044
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.054	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.385	-0.000
predicted_R	0.565	-0.085
predicted_RBI	0.168	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.434	0.000
predicted_SO	1.448	0.259

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.63), rates preserved: AVG=0.298 HR/AB=0.015

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, BvP AVG=0.500)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	8.000	0.3333	0.4000	0.4444	0.3333	0.0000	0.0000	0.1111	0.4444
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	10.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	5.000	18.000	0.2703	0.3571	0.4054	0.2703	0.0270	0.0541	0.1351	0.4865
season	0.20	37	-	134.000	40.000	10.000	4.000	19.000	24.000	22.000	44.000	0.2985	0.3974	0.4627	0.2985	0.0299	0.1418	0.1642	0.3284

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3050
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.6390
predicted_AVG	0.3043
predicted_BB	0.4740
predicted_H	1.1070
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0560
predicted_OBP	0.3845
predicted_R	0.5190
predicted_RBI	0.1720
predicted_SLG	0.4344
predicted_SO	1.5870

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2700	0.3050	0.2928	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6220	3.6390	3.6330	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3040	0.3043	0.3042	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5950	0.4740	0.5163	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0400	1.1070	1.0836	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0560	0.0539	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3850	0.3845	0.3847	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6490	0.5190	0.5645	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1600	0.1720	0.1678	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4340	0.4344	0.4343	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1890	1.5870	1.4477	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.299

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260506_BOS@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	682985
playerID	682985
playerName	Riley Greene
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	DET
teamID	10

Kevin McGonigle (805808) · BATTER · 3B · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 35

All-history rows before 20260508: 35

System season_avg: 0.3010

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3015

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.314	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.314	0.000	0.686	1.000
predicted_3B	0.057	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.057	0.000	-0.057	0.000
predicted_AB	3.886	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.886	4.000	0.114	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.212	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.301	0.000	0.199	0.500
predicted_BB	0.571	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.571	0.000	0.429	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.800	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	1.171	0.000	0.829	2.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.057	0.000	-0.057	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.277	0.600	0.600	Hitting_OBP	0.395	0.000	0.205	0.600
predicted_R	0.714	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.714	0.000	0.286	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.457	0.000	0.543	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.114	0.000	-0.114	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.278	0.750	0.750	Hitting_SLG	0.456	0.000	0.294	0.750
predicted_SO	0.571	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.571	0.000	-0.571	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.314	-
predicted_3B	0.057	-
predicted_AB	3.886	-
predicted_AVG	0.212	-
predicted_BB	0.571	-
predicted_H	0.800	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.277	-
predicted_R	0.714	-
predicted_RBI	0.500	-
predicted_SLG	0.278	-
predicted_SO	0.571	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.175	-0.139
predicted_3B	0.028	-0.029
predicted_AB	4.004	0.118
predicted_AVG	0.212	0.000
predicted_BB	0.450	-0.121
predicted_H	0.841	0.041
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.045	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.277	0.000
predicted_R	0.633	-0.081
predicted_RBI	0.523	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.278	0.000
predicted_SO	0.563	-0.008

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.210 HR/AB=0.011

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.886

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	0.1429	0.1818	0.1429	0.1429	0.0000	0.1429	0.0476	0.1429
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	10.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	5.000	5.000	5.000	0.2500	0.3333	0.3500	0.2500	0.0250	0.1250	0.1250	0.1250
season	0.20	35	-	136.000	41.000	11.000	2.000	2.000	16.000	25.000	20.000	20.000	0.3015	0.3949	0.4559	0.3015	0.0147	0.1177	0.1471	0.1471

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1010
predicted_3B	0.0120
predicted_AB	4.0670
predicted_AVG	0.2121
predicted_BB	0.3850
predicted_H	0.8630
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0480
predicted_OBP	0.2774
predicted_R	0.5890
predicted_RBI	0.5350
predicted_SLG	0.2780
predicted_SO	0.5590

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3140	0.1010	0.1755	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0570	0.0120	0.0278	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8860	4.0670	4.0037	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2120	0.2121	0.2121	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5710	0.3850	0.4501	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8000	0.8630	0.8410	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0480	0.0452	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2770	0.2774	0.2773	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7140	0.5890	0.6327	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5000	0.5350	0.5228	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2780	0.2780	0.2780	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5710	0.5590	0.5632	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.301

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260506_BOS@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	805808
playerID	805808
playerName	Kevin McGonigle
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	DET
teamID	10

Keider Montero (672456) · PITCHER · Starter · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 6

All-history rows before 20260508: 6

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	2.167	1.000	-2.167	-1.000
predicted_IP	4.200	4.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.417	6.200	-1.217	-2.000
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	-	Pitching_SO	4.167	2.000	-0.167	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 4.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	29.100	11.000	24.000	6.000	22.000	3.000	3.3750	1.0227	0.3750	0.8182	0.2046	0.7500	0.1023
last_10	0.35	6	33.200	13.000	27.000	7.000	25.000	3.000	3.4752	1.0099	0.3861	0.8020	0.2079	0.7426	0.0891
season	0.20	6	33.200	13.000	27.000	7.000	25.000	3.000	3.4752	1.0099	0.3861	0.8020	0.2079	0.7426	0.0891

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.2010
predicted_ER	2.2170
predicted_ERA	3.4301
predicted_H	4.7070
predicted_HR	0.5530
predicted_IP	5.2000
predicted_SO	4.3390
predicted_WHIP	1.0157

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	1.2010	1.4807	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	2.2170	1.4411	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.4301	3.4301	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	4.7070	3.7595	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.5530	0.3595	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.2000	5.2000	5.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	4.0000	4.3390	4.2203	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0157	1.0157	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.2
H	2
R	0
ER	0
BB	2
SO	4
HR	0
BF	19
Pitches	81

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	26
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	3.48
Pitching_Flyouts	5
Pitching_Groundouts	5
Pitching_H	5
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.2
Pitching_Pitches	85
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	55
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260502_TEX@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	672456
playerID	672456
playerName	Keider Montero
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	DET
teamID	10

Burch Smith (572143) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 7

All-history rows before 20260508: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.586	1.000	-0.486	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	2.286	1.000	-1.286	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	8.000	2.000	7.000	2.000	12.000	2.2500	1.1250	0.2500	0.8750	0.2500	1.5000
last_10	0.35	7	11.100	2.000	9.000	4.000	16.000	1.5882	1.1471	0.1765	0.7941	0.3529	1.4118
season	0.20	7	11.100	2.000	9.000	4.000	16.000	1.5882	1.1471	0.1765	0.7941	0.3529	1.4118

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5110
predicted_ER	0.3490
predicted_ERA	1.8860
predicted_H	1.3840
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.2000
predicted_SO	2.4190
predicted_WHIP	1.1372

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.5110	0.6822	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3490	0.2268	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.8860	1.8860	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.3840	0.8996	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.2000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	2.4190	1.9224	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1372	1.1372	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.59
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_BOS@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	572143
playerID	572143
playerName	Burch Smith
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	DET
teamID	10

Kenley Jansen (445276) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 11

All-history rows before 20260508: 11

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.455	0.000	-0.455	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.673	1.000	0.427	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.909	1.000	0.091	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 10

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	2.000	5.000	3.000	4.000	1.000	3.8571	1.7143	0.4286	1.0714	0.6429	0.8571	0.2143
last_10	0.35	10	8.100	3.000	7.000	4.000	10.000	2.000	3.2400	1.3200	0.3600	0.8400	0.4800	1.2000	0.2400
season	0.20	10	8.100	3.000	7.000	4.000	10.000	2.000	3.2400	1.3200	0.3600	0.8400	0.4800	1.2000	0.2400

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4520
predicted_ER	0.3190
predicted_ERA	3.5177
predicted_H	0.7710
predicted_HR	0.1870
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.8540
predicted_WHIP	1.4974

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4520	0.2938	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3190	0.2074	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.5177	3.5177	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.7710	0.8511	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1870	0.1216	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	0.2000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8540	0.9051	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4974	1.4974	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	10
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.40
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	10
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	5
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_BOS@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	445276
playerID	445276
playerName	Kenley Jansen
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	DET
teamID	10

Brant Hurter (676428) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 16

All-history rows before 20260508: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.188	0.000	-0.188	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.963	0.200	0.037	0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.812	1.000	0.188	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	8.200	0.000	2.000	1.000	6.000	0.000	0.0000	0.3462	0.0000	0.2308	0.1154	0.6923	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	13.200	1.000	5.000	1.000	10.000	0.000	0.6585	0.4390	0.0732	0.3659	0.0732	0.7317	0.0000
season	0.20	15	18.200	3.000	10.000	4.000	13.000	1.000	1.4464	0.7500	0.1607	0.5357	0.2143	0.6964	0.0536

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1790
predicted_ER	0.0860
predicted_ERA	0.5198
predicted_H	0.5030
predicted_HR	0.0160
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.0490
predicted_WHIP	0.4594

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1790	0.1163	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.0860	0.0559	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.5198	0.5198	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.5030	0.3270	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0160	0.0104	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.1000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0490	1.0318	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.4594	0.4594	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	2
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.45
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	3
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_BOS@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	676428
playerID	676428
playerName	Brant Hurter
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	DET
teamID	10

Kyle Finnegan (640448) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 17

All-history rows before 20260508: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.059	0.000	2.941	3.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.971	1.000	-0.771	-0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.765	0.000	0.235	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	4.000	0.000	0.0000	1.4000	0.0000	0.6000	0.8000	0.8000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	11.000	1.000	7.000	5.000	10.000	1.000	0.8182	1.0909	0.0909	0.6364	0.4546	0.9091	0.0909
season	0.20	17	17.200	1.000	10.000	12.000	13.000	1.000	0.5094	1.2453	0.0566	0.5660	0.6793	0.7359	0.0566

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6550
predicted_ER	0.0430
predicted_ERA	0.3882
predicted_H	0.6060
predicted_HR	0.0430
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8250
predicted_WHIP	1.2609

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.6550	1.1258	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	0.0430	1.0779	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.3882	0.3882	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.6060	1.0939	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0430	0.0279	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8250	0.8862	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2609	1.2609	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	2
R	3
ER	3
BB	2
SO	1
HR	0
BF	7
Pitches	32

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.51
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	5
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_BOS@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	640448
playerID	640448
playerName	Kyle Finnegan
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	DET
teamID	10

Home Team: KC

Salvador Perez (521692) · BATTER · DH · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 37

All-history rows before 20260508: 37

System season_avg: 0.1990

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1986

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.135	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.135	0.000	-0.135	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.946	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.946	5.000	-0.946	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.171	0.667	0.667	Hitting_AVG	0.199	0.000	0.468	0.667
predicted_BB	0.135	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.135	0.000	-0.135	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.650	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.784	0.000	1.216	2.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.135	0.000	-0.135	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.231	0.750	0.750	Hitting_OBP	0.237	0.000	0.513	0.750
predicted_R	0.378	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.378	0.000	0.622	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.740	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.459	0.000	-0.459	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.243	0.667	0.667	Hitting_SLG	0.336	0.000	0.331	0.667
predicted_SO	0.919	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.919	1.000	-0.919	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.135	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.946	-
predicted_AVG	0.171	-
predicted_BB	0.135	-
predicted_H	0.650	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.231	-
predicted_R	0.378	-
predicted_RBI	0.740	-
predicted_SLG	0.243	-
predicted_SO	0.919	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.108	-0.027
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.834	-0.112
predicted_AVG	0.171	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.147	0.012
predicted_H	0.645	-0.005
predicted_HBP	0.178	-
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.231	-0.000
predicted_R	0.412	0.034
predicted_RBI	0.737	-0.003
predicted_SLG	0.243	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.941	0.021

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.95), rates preserved: AVG=0.164 HR/AB=0.015

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, BvP AVG=0.571)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	2.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	0.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.946

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	0.1111	0.1905	0.1111	0.1111	0.0000	0.2222	0.0556	0.2778
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	9.000	2.000	1.000	8.000	5.000	1.000	9.000	0.2308	0.2791	0.3590	0.2308	0.0256	0.2051	0.0256	0.2308
season	0.20	37	-	146.000	29.000	5.000	5.000	17.000	14.000	5.000	34.000	0.1986	0.2372	0.3356	0.1986	0.0343	0.1164	0.0343	0.2329

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0940
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7740
predicted_AVG	0.1705
predicted_BB	0.1540
predicted_H	0.6430
predicted_HBP	0.1780
predicted_HR	0.0600
predicted_OBP	0.2309
predicted_R	0.4300
predicted_RBI	0.7360
predicted_SLG	0.2428
predicted_SO	0.9520

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1350	0.0940	0.1084	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9460	3.7740	3.8342	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1710	0.1705	0.1707	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1350	0.1540	0.1474	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6500	0.6430	0.6455	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1780	0.1780	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0600	0.0600	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2310	0.2309	0.2309	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3780	0.4300	0.4118	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7400	0.7360	0.7374	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2430	0.2428	0.2429	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9190	0.9520	0.9405	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.199

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260507_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	521692
playerID	521692
playerName	Salvador Perez
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	KC
teamID	12

Bobby Witt Jr. (677951) · BATTER · SS · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 38

All-history rows before 20260508: 38

System season_avg: 0.2980

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2980

Diff (system - data): -0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.263	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.263	0.000	-0.263	0.000
predicted_3B	0.026	1.000	1.000	Hitting_3B	0.026	0.000	0.974	1.000
predicted_AB	3.974	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.974	4.000	0.026	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.339	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.298	1.000	-0.048	-0.750
predicted_BB	0.474	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.474	1.000	0.526	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_H	1.300	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.184	4.000	-0.184	-3.000
predicted_HR	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.105	1.000	-0.105	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.387	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.368	1.000	0.032	-0.600
predicted_R	0.447	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.447	1.000	0.553	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	3.000	3.000	Hitting_RBI	0.447	1.000	2.553	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.316	0.000	-0.316	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.605	0.750	0.750	Hitting_SLG	0.457	1.750	0.293	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.816	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.816	0.000	-0.816	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.263	-
predicted_3B	0.026	-
predicted_AB	3.974	-
predicted_AVG	0.339	-
predicted_BB	0.474	-
predicted_H	1.300	-
predicted_HR	0.280	-
predicted_OBP	0.387	-
predicted_R	0.447	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.605	-
predicted_SO	0.816	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.208	-0.055
predicted_3B	0.013	-0.013
predicted_AB	4.092	0.118
predicted_AVG	0.339	0.000
predicted_BB	0.379	-0.095
predicted_H	1.371	0.071
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.296	0.016
predicted_OBP	0.387	0.000
predicted_R	0.789	0.342
predicted_RBI	0.433	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.605	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.969	0.153

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.09), rates preserved: AVG=0.335 HR/AB=0.072

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, BvP AVG=0.375)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	1.000	1.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	3.000	3.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.974

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	8.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	6.000	1.000	6.000	0.3810	0.4091	0.7143	0.3810	0.0952	0.0952	0.0476	0.2857
last_10	0.35	10	-	42.000	13.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	5.000	10.000	4.000	10.000	0.3095	0.3696	0.5476	0.3095	0.0714	0.1191	0.0952	0.2381
season	0.20	38	-	151.000	45.000	10.000	1.000	4.000	17.000	17.000	18.000	31.000	0.2980	0.3684	0.4570	0.2980	0.0265	0.1126	0.1192	0.2053

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1790
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	4.1550
predicted_AVG	0.3394
predicted_BB	0.3270
predicted_H	1.4100
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.3040
predicted_OBP	0.3871
predicted_R	0.9740
predicted_RBI	0.4450
predicted_SLG	0.6045
predicted_SO	1.0510

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2630	0.1790	0.2084	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0260	0.0060	0.0130	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9740	4.1550	4.0917	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3390	0.3394	0.3393	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4740	0.3270	0.3785	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.3000	1.4100	1.3715	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2800	0.3040	0.2956	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3870	0.3871	0.3871	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4470	0.9740	0.7895	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.4450	0.4327	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6050	0.6045	0.6047	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8160	1.0510	0.9688	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	1
HR	0
R	1
RBI	3
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.298

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	1.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	4
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	7
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260507_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	677951
playerID	677951
playerName	Bobby Witt Jr.
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	KC
teamID	12

Maikel Garcia (672580) · BATTER · 3B · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 35

All-history rows before 20260508: 35

System season_avg: 0.2710

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2714

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.286	1.000	-0.286	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.029	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	5.000	1.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.267	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.271	0.400	-0.271	-0.400
predicted_BB	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.057	0.000	-0.057	0.000
predicted_H	1.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.086	2.000	-1.086	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.086	0.000	-0.086	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.324	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.400	-0.333	-0.400
predicted_R	0.514	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.514	0.000	-0.514	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.400	1.000	-0.400	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.114	0.000	-0.114	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.394	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.421	0.600	-0.421	-0.600
predicted_SO	0.743	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.743	1.000	-0.743	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.286	-
predicted_3B	0.029	-
predicted_AB	4.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.267	-
predicted_BB	0.400	-
predicted_H	1.070	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.324	-
predicted_R	0.514	-
predicted_RBI	0.300	-
predicted_SLG	0.394	-
predicted_SO	0.743	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.285	-0.001
predicted_3B	0.036	0.007
predicted_AB	4.045	0.045
predicted_AVG	0.267	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.378	-0.022
predicted_H	1.080	0.010
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.051	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.324	0.000
predicted_R	0.396	-0.118
predicted_RBI	0.306	0.006
predicted_SLG	0.394	0.000
predicted_SO	0.610	-0.133

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.05), rates preserved: AVG=0.267 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, BvP AVG=0.167)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	0.2500	0.3182	0.3000	0.2500	0.0000	0.0500	0.1000	0.1000
last_10	0.35	10	-	42.000	12.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	3.000	6.000	0.2857	0.3261	0.5000	0.2857	0.0238	0.0952	0.0714	0.1429
season	0.20	35	-	140.000	38.000	10.000	1.000	3.000	14.000	18.000	14.000	26.000	0.2714	0.3333	0.4214	0.2714	0.0214	0.1000	0.1000	0.1857

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2850
predicted_3B	0.0400
predicted_AB	4.0700
predicted_AVG	0.2668
predicted_BB	0.3660
predicted_H	1.0860
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0510
predicted_OBP	0.3240
predicted_R	0.3320
predicted_RBI	0.3090
predicted_SLG	0.3943
predicted_SO	0.5380

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2860	0.2850	0.2853	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0290	0.0400	0.0362	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0000	4.0700	4.0455	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2670	0.2668	0.2669	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4000	0.3660	0.3779	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0700	1.0860	1.0804	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0510	0.0507	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3240	0.3240	0.3240	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5140	0.3320	0.3957	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3000	0.3090	0.3059	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3940	0.3943	0.3942	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7430	0.5380	0.6098	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.271

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260507_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	672580
playerID	672580
playerName	Maikel Garcia
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	KC
teamID	12

Carter Jensen (695600) · BATTER · C · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 31

All-history rows before 20260508: 31

System season_avg: 0.2290

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2294

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.065	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.065	0.000	-0.065	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.516	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.516	4.000	-0.516	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.133	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.229	0.250	-0.229	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.452	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.452	1.000	0.548	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.440	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.806	1.000	-0.806	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.194	0.000	-0.194	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.251	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.320	0.400	-0.070	-0.150
predicted_R	0.484	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.484	1.000	-0.484	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.548	0.000	-0.548	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.169	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.413	0.250	-0.413	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.226	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.226	2.000	0.774	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.065	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.516	-
predicted_AVG	0.133	-
predicted_BB	0.452	-
predicted_H	0.440	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.251	-
predicted_R	0.484	-
predicted_RBI	0.280	-
predicted_SLG	0.169	-
predicted_SO	1.226	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.031	-0.034
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.605	0.089
predicted_AVG	0.133	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.529	0.077
predicted_H	0.469	0.029
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.251	-0.000
predicted_R	0.419	-0.065
predicted_RBI	0.297	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.169	0.000
predicted_SO	1.641	0.415

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.60), rates preserved: AVG=0.130 HR/AB=0.011

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	11.000	0.1111	0.2381	0.1111	0.1111	0.0000	0.0556	0.1667	0.6111
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	6.000	18.000	0.1053	0.2273	0.1053	0.1053	0.0000	0.0790	0.1579	0.4737
season	0.20	31	-	109.000	25.000	2.000	6.000	17.000	15.000	14.000	38.000	0.2294	0.3200	0.4128	0.2294	0.0551	0.1560	0.1284	0.3486

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0130
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.6530
predicted_AVG	0.1327
predicted_BB	0.5700
predicted_H	0.4850
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.0400
predicted_OBP	0.2507
predicted_R	0.3840
predicted_RBI	0.3060
predicted_SLG	0.1694
predicted_SO	1.8650

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0650	0.0130	0.0312	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5160	3.6530	3.6050	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1330	0.1327	0.1328	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4520	0.5700	0.5287	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4400	0.4850	0.4692	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0400	0.0400	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2510	0.2507	0.2508	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4840	0.3840	0.4190	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2800	0.3060	0.2969	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1690	0.1694	0.1693	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2260	1.8650	1.6414	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.229

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	1
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260507_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	695600
playerID	695600
playerName	Carter Jensen
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	KC
teamID	12

Vinnie Pasquantino (686469) · BATTER · 1B · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 35

All-history rows before 20260508: 35

System season_avg: 0.1950

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1955

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.114	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.114	0.000	-0.114	0.000
predicted_3B	0.057	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.057	0.000	-0.057	0.000
predicted_AB	3.800	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.800	5.000	0.200	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.261	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.195	0.200	-0.195	-0.200
predicted_BB	0.457	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.457	0.000	-0.457	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.960	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.743	1.000	-0.743	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.143	1.000	-0.143	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.303	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.279	0.200	-0.279	-0.200
predicted_R	0.457	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.457	1.000	-0.457	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.450	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.514	1.000	-0.514	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.467	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.368	0.800	-0.368	-0.800
predicted_SO	0.914	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.914	1.000	0.086	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.114	-
predicted_3B	0.057	-
predicted_AB	3.800	-
predicted_AVG	0.261	-
predicted_BB	0.457	-
predicted_H	0.960	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.303	-
predicted_R	0.457	-
predicted_RBI	0.450	-
predicted_SLG	0.467	-
predicted_SO	0.914	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.158	0.044
predicted_3B	0.052	-0.005
predicted_AB	3.998	0.198
predicted_AVG	0.261	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.344	-0.113
predicted_H	1.032	0.072
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.182	0.012
predicted_OBP	0.303	0.000
predicted_R	0.556	0.099
predicted_RBI	0.482	0.032
predicted_SLG	0.467	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.882	-0.032

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.258 HR/AB=0.045

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, BvP AVG=0.286)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	22.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	0.000	4.000	0.2727	0.2727	0.4545	0.2727	0.0454	0.0909	0.0000	0.1818
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	11.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	7.000	5.000	9.000	0.2821	0.3556	0.5385	0.2821	0.0513	0.1538	0.1282	0.2308
season	0.20	35	-	133.000	26.000	4.000	2.000	5.000	18.000	16.000	16.000	32.000	0.1955	0.2792	0.3684	0.1955	0.0376	0.1353	0.1203	0.2406

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1820
predicted_3B	0.0490
predicted_AB	4.1050
predicted_AVG	0.2606
predicted_BB	0.2830
predicted_H	1.0700
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.1880
predicted_OBP	0.3030
predicted_R	0.6090
predicted_RBI	0.5000
predicted_SLG	0.4667
predicted_SO	0.8650

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1140	0.1820	0.1582	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0570	0.0490	0.0518	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8000	4.1050	3.9983	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2610	0.2606	0.2607	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4570	0.2830	0.3439	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9600	1.0700	1.0315	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.1880	0.1817	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3030	0.3030	0.3030	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4570	0.6090	0.5558	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4500	0.5000	0.4825	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4670	0.4667	0.4668	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9140	0.8650	0.8821	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.195

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260507_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	686469
playerID	686469
playerName	Vinnie Pasquantino
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	KC
teamID	12

Michael Massey (686681) · BATTER · 2B · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 21

All-history rows before 20260508: 21

System season_avg: 0.2340

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2344

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.286	1.000	-0.286	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.048	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.048	2.000	0.952	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.243	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.234	0.500	0.266	0.000
predicted_BB	0.095	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.095	0.000	-0.095	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.630	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.714	1.000	1.286	1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.095	0.000	-0.095	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.251	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.250	0.500	0.250	0.000
predicted_R	0.381	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.381	1.000	0.619	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.340	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.429	0.000	-0.429	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.048	0.000	-0.048	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.446	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.422	1.000	0.078	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.810	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.810	0.000	0.190	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.286	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.048	-
predicted_AVG	0.243	-
predicted_BB	0.095	-
predicted_H	0.630	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.251	-
predicted_R	0.381	-
predicted_RBI	0.340	-
predicted_SLG	0.446	-
predicted_SO	0.810	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.265	-0.021
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.254	0.206
predicted_AVG	0.243	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.069	-0.026
predicted_H	0.751	0.121
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.132	0.022
predicted_OBP	0.251	-0.000
predicted_R	0.493	0.112
predicted_RBI	0.406	0.066
predicted_SLG	0.446	0.000
predicted_SO	0.886	0.076

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.25), rates preserved: AVG=0.231 HR/AB=0.041

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, BvP AVG=0.286)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	0.000	5.000	0.2353	0.2353	0.4706	0.2353	0.0588	0.1177	0.0000	0.2941
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	9.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	6.000	1.000	9.000	0.2571	0.2703	0.4286	0.2571	0.0286	0.1429	0.0286	0.2571
season	0.20	21	-	64.000	15.000	6.000	2.000	9.000	8.000	2.000	17.000	0.2344	0.2500	0.4219	0.2344	0.0312	0.1406	0.0312	0.2656

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2530
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.3650
predicted_AVG	0.2427
predicted_BB	0.0550
predicted_H	0.8170
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1440
predicted_OBP	0.2505
predicted_R	0.5530
predicted_RBI	0.4410
predicted_SLG	0.4462
predicted_SO	0.9270

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2860	0.2530	0.2646	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0480	3.3650	3.2541	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2430	0.2427	0.2428	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0950	0.0550	0.0690	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6300	0.8170	0.7515	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1440	0.1321	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2510	0.2505	0.2507	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3810	0.5530	0.4928	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3400	0.4410	0.4057	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4460	0.4462	0.4461	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8100	0.9270	0.8861	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.234

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260507_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	686681
playerID	686681
playerName	Michael Massey
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	KC
teamID	12

Isaac Collins (686555) · BATTER · LF · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 29

All-history rows before 20260508: 29

System season_avg: 0.2470

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2474

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.138	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.138	0.000	-0.138	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.345	2.000	2.000	Hitting_AB	3.345	2.000	-1.345	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.359	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.247	0.500	-0.247	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.586	2.000	2.000	Hitting_BB	0.586	2.000	1.414	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.103	0.000	-0.103	0.000
predicted_H	1.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.828	1.000	-0.828	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.103	0.000	-0.103	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.478	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.368	0.750	0.132	-0.250
predicted_R	0.483	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.483	1.000	-0.483	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.520	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.414	0.000	-0.414	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.069	0.000	-0.069	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.626	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.381	0.500	-0.381	-0.500
predicted_SO	1.138	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.138	0.000	-1.138	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.138	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.345	-
predicted_AVG	0.359	-
predicted_BB	0.586	-
predicted_H	1.070	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.478	-
predicted_R	0.483	-
predicted_RBI	0.520	-
predicted_SLG	0.626	-
predicted_SO	1.138	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.260	0.122
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.071	-0.274
predicted_AVG	0.359	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.751	0.165
predicted_H	1.056	-0.014
predicted_HBP	0.012	-
predicted_HR	0.155	-0.005
predicted_OBP	0.478	-0.000
predicted_R	0.486	0.003
predicted_RBI	0.512	-0.008
predicted_SLG	0.626	0.000
predicted_SO	0.941	-0.197

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.35), rates preserved: AVG=0.316 HR/AB=0.046

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-1.000
BB	2.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	13.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	5.000	4.000	0.4615	0.5789	0.8462	0.4615	0.0769	0.2308	0.3846	0.3077
last_10	0.35	10	-	31.000	9.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	7.000	7.000	0.2903	0.4103	0.4839	0.2903	0.0323	0.1290	0.2258	0.2258
season	0.20	29	-	97.000	24.000	4.000	3.000	12.000	14.000	17.000	33.000	0.2474	0.3675	0.3814	0.2474	0.0309	0.1237	0.1753	0.3402

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3260
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.9240
predicted_AVG	0.3588
predicted_BB	0.8400
predicted_H	1.0490
predicted_HBP	0.0120
predicted_HR	0.1520
predicted_OBP	0.4776
predicted_R	0.4870
predicted_RBI	0.5080
predicted_SLG	0.6264
predicted_SO	0.8350

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1380	0.3260	0.2602	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3450	2.9240	3.0713	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3590	0.3588	0.3589	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5860	0.8400	0.7511	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0700	1.0490	1.0563	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0120	0.0120	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.1520	0.1548	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4780	0.4776	0.4777	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4830	0.4870	0.4856	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5200	0.5080	0.5122	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6260	0.6264	0.6263	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1380	0.8350	0.9410	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.247

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260507_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	686555
playerID	686555
playerName	Isaac Collins
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	KC
teamID	12

Kyle Isbel (664728) · BATTER · CF · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 28

All-history rows before 20260508: 28

System season_avg: 0.2790

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2791

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.071	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.071	2.000	0.929	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.263	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.279	0.000	-0.279	0.000
predicted_BB	0.214	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.214	0.000	-0.214	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.660	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.857	0.000	-0.857	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.107	0.000	-0.107	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.344	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.347	0.000	-0.347	0.000
predicted_R	0.393	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.393	0.000	-0.393	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.386	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.430	0.000	-0.430	0.000
predicted_SO	0.786	3.000	3.000	Hitting_SO	0.786	1.000	2.214	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.071	-
predicted_AVG	0.263	-
predicted_BB	0.214	-
predicted_H	0.660	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.344	-
predicted_R	0.393	-
predicted_RBI	0.100	-
predicted_SLG	0.386	-
predicted_SO	0.786	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.194	0.051
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.102	0.031
predicted_AVG	0.263	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.268	0.054
predicted_H	0.763	0.103
predicted_HBP	0.088	-
predicted_HR	0.050	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.344	-0.000
predicted_R	0.358	-0.035
predicted_RBI	0.116	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.386	0.000
predicted_SO	0.772	-0.014

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.10), rates preserved: AVG=0.246 HR/AB=0.016

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, BvP AVG=0.143)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	0.2000	0.2941	0.2667	0.2000	0.0000	0.0000	0.1333	0.2667
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	11.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	2.000	7.000	0.3333	0.4054	0.5152	0.3333	0.0303	0.0606	0.0606	0.2121
season	0.20	28	-	86.000	24.000	4.000	3.000	8.000	11.000	6.000	22.000	0.2791	0.3474	0.4302	0.2791	0.0349	0.0930	0.0698	0.2558

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2220
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.1190
predicted_AVG	0.2625
predicted_BB	0.2970
predicted_H	0.8190
predicted_HBP	0.0880
predicted_HR	0.0550
predicted_OBP	0.3437
predicted_R	0.3390
predicted_RBI	0.1240
predicted_SLG	0.3864
predicted_SO	0.7650

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.2220	0.1943	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0710	3.1190	3.1022	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2630	0.2625	0.2627	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2140	0.2970	0.2680	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6600	0.8190	0.7633	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0880	0.0880	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0550	0.0498	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3440	0.3437	0.3438	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3930	0.3390	0.3579	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1000	0.1240	0.1156	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3860	0.3864	0.3863	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7860	0.7650	0.7724	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.279

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260507_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	664728
playerID	664728
playerName	Kyle Isbel
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	KC
teamID	12

Jac Caglianone (695506) · BATTER · RF · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 30

All-history rows before 20260508: 30

System season_avg: 0.2360

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2358

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_3B	0.033	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.033	0.000	-0.033	0.000
predicted_AB	3.533	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.533	5.000	-0.533	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.210	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.236	0.200	-0.236	-0.200
predicted_BB	0.367	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.367	0.000	0.633	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.033	0.000	-0.033	0.000
predicted_H	0.670	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.833	1.000	-0.833	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.295	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.319	0.200	-0.069	0.050
predicted_R	0.433	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.433	0.000	-0.433	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.379	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.387	0.200	-0.387	-0.200
predicted_SO	1.200	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.200	1.000	-0.200	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.033	-
predicted_AB	3.533	-
predicted_AVG	0.210	-
predicted_BB	0.367	-
predicted_H	0.670	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.295	-
predicted_R	0.433	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.379	-
predicted_SO	1.200	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.104	-0.063
predicted_3B	0.016	-0.017
predicted_AB	3.627	0.094
predicted_AVG	0.210	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.407	0.040
predicted_H	0.736	0.066
predicted_HBP	0.014	-
predicted_HR	0.169	0.019
predicted_OBP	0.295	-0.000
predicted_R	0.463	0.030
predicted_RBI	0.426	0.036
predicted_SLG	0.379	0.000
predicted_SO	1.144	-0.056

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.63), rates preserved: AVG=0.203 HR/AB=0.047

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	0.2105	0.2857	0.3684	0.2105	0.0526	0.1579	0.1053	0.2632
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	6.000	5.000	12.000	0.1944	0.2927	0.3889	0.1944	0.0556	0.1111	0.1389	0.3333
season	0.20	30	-	106.000	25.000	5.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	13.000	11.000	36.000	0.2358	0.3193	0.3868	0.2359	0.0283	0.0566	0.1038	0.3396

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0700
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.6770
predicted_AVG	0.2099
predicted_BB	0.4290
predicted_H	0.7720
predicted_HBP	0.0140
predicted_HR	0.1790
predicted_OBP	0.2949
predicted_R	0.4790
predicted_RBI	0.4460
predicted_SLG	0.3793
predicted_SO	1.1140

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.0700	0.1040	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0330	0.0070	0.0161	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5330	3.6770	3.6266	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2100	0.2099	0.2099	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3670	0.4290	0.4073	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6700	0.7720	0.7363	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0140	0.0140	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1790	0.1689	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2950	0.2949	0.2949	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4330	0.4790	0.4629	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.4460	0.4264	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3790	0.3793	0.3792	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2000	1.1140	1.1441	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.236

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260507_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	695506
playerID	695506
playerName	Jac Caglianone
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	KC
teamID	12

Kris Bubic (663460) · PITCHER · Starter · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 7

All-history rows before 20260508: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	2.143	1.000	-0.143	1.000
predicted_IP	4.200	4.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.743	7.000	-1.543	-2.800
predicted_SO	7.000	7.000	-	Pitching_SO	6.000	7.000	1.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 4.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	29.200	10.000	21.000	13.000	30.000	1.000	3.0337	1.1461	0.3371	0.7079	0.4382	1.0112	0.0337
last_10	0.35	7	40.200	15.000	27.000	19.000	42.000	3.000	3.3197	1.1311	0.3689	0.6639	0.4672	1.0328	0.0738
season	0.20	7	40.200	15.000	27.000	19.000	42.000	3.000	3.3197	1.1311	0.3689	0.6639	0.4672	1.0328	0.0738

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.6420
predicted_ER	2.0620
predicted_ERA	3.1910
predicted_H	3.9770
predicted_HR	0.3240
predicted_IP	5.2000
predicted_SO	5.9510
predicted_WHIP	1.1379

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	2.6420	2.7673	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.0620	2.0403	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.1910	3.1910	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	3.9770	3.6350	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.3240	0.2106	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.2000	5.2000	5.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	7.0000	5.9510	6.3181	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1379	1.1379	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.2
H	3
R	2
ER	2
BB	3
SO	7
HR	0
BF	22
Pitches	98

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	26
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	3.32
Pitching_Flyouts	4
Pitching_Groundouts	7
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	7.0
Pitching_Pitches	94
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	7
Pitching_Strikes	63
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_KC@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	663460
playerID	663460
playerName	Kris Bubic
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	KC
teamID	12

Nick Mears (683232) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 15

All-history rows before 20260508: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.833	1.000	0.367	0.200
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.667	0.000	1.333	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	0.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.0000	0.6429	0.0000	0.4286	0.2143	0.8571
last_10	0.35	10	8.200	3.000	6.000	5.000	5.000	3.1154	1.2692	0.3462	0.6923	0.5769	0.5769
season	0.20	15	13.200	3.000	8.000	7.000	10.000	1.9756	1.0976	0.2195	0.5854	0.5122	0.7317

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4010
predicted_ER	0.1650
predicted_ERA	1.4855
predicted_H	0.5520
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.7340
predicted_WHIP	0.9530

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4010	0.2607	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1650	0.1073	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.4855	1.4855	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.5520	0.3588	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.0000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.7340	1.1771	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9530	0.9530	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	12

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.98
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	23
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	16
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	683232
playerID	683232
playerName	Nick Mears
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	KC
teamID	12

Lucas Erceg (668674) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 16

All-history rows before 20260508: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.900	1.000	0.200	0.100
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.875	1.000	1.125	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	7.000	0.0000	0.8000	0.0000	0.2000	0.6000	1.4000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	4.000	5.000	9.000	11.000	3.7241	1.4483	0.4138	0.5172	0.9310	1.1379
season	0.20	16	15.100	6.000	10.000	11.000	14.000	3.5217	1.3696	0.3913	0.6522	0.7174	0.9130

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.7390
predicted_ER	0.2230
predicted_ERA	2.0078
predicted_H	0.4010
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.2110
predicted_WHIP	1.1408

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.7390	0.4803	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2230	0.1449	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.0078	2.0078	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.4010	0.2607	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.0000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.2110	1.4872	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1408	1.1408	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.52
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	668674
playerID	668674
playerName	Lucas Erceg
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	KC
teamID	12

Daniel Lynch IV (663738) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 15

All-history rows before 20260508: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.200	0.000	0.800	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.967	1.000	0.033	0.000
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.333	2.000	1.667	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	2.000	3.000	1.000	7.000	1.000	3.3750	0.7500	0.3750	0.5625	0.1875	1.3125	0.1875
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	2.000	3.000	1.000	12.000	1.000	1.9286	0.4286	0.2143	0.3214	0.1071	1.2857	0.1071
season	0.20	15	15.200	3.000	5.000	4.000	20.000	1.000	1.7234	0.5745	0.1915	0.3191	0.2553	1.2766	0.0638

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1730
predicted_ER	0.2820
predicted_ERA	2.5384
predicted_H	0.4290
predicted_HR	0.1350
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.2960
predicted_WHIP	0.6024

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1730	0.1124	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.2820	0.5333	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.5384	2.5384	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.4290	0.9788	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1350	0.0878	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	1.2960	1.8924	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.6024	0.6024	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	3
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.72
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	663738
playerID	663738
playerName	Daniel Lynch IV
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	KC
teamID	12

Matt Strahm (621381) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 14

All-history rows before 20260508: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.357	0.000	1.643	2.000
predicted_IP	0.100	0.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.943	1.000	-0.843	-0.900
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 0.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	0.000	0.0000	0.8000	0.0000	0.4000	0.4000	0.8000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	3.000	7.000	5.000	10.000	2.000	2.7000	1.2000	0.3000	0.7000	0.5000	1.0000	0.2000
season	0.20	14	13.200	5.000	10.000	6.000	14.000	2.000	3.2927	1.1707	0.3659	0.7317	0.4390	1.0244	0.1463

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4430
predicted_ER	0.1780
predicted_ERA	1.6035
predicted_H	0.5710
predicted_HR	0.0990
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9150
predicted_WHIP	1.0141

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.4430	0.6380	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.1780	0.8157	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.6035	1.6035	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	0.5710	1.4211	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0990	0.0644	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	1.0000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.9150	1.2948	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0141	1.0141	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.1
H	3
R	2
ER	2
BB	1
SO	2
HR	0
BF	7
Pitches	30

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.29
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	7
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	6
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	621381
playerID	621381
playerName	Matt Strahm
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	KC
teamID	12

20260508_HOU@CIN

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 3, "confidence": 0.5913193615465535, "home_win_probability": 0.4086806384534465, "away_win_probability": 0.5913193615465535, "predicted_score_text": "HOU 6 - 3 CIN", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to final winner probability with starter-quality caps.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "predicted_score_text": "HOU 5 - 4 CIN", "confidence": 0.5913193615465535, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score", "final_prediction_synced": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "HOU 5 - 4 CIN", "winner": "HOU"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "HOU 6 - 3 CIN", "winner": "HOU"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 1, "home_run_delta": -1, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"}}

Away Team: HOU

Jose Altuve (514888) · BATTER · 2B · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 34

All-history rows before 20260508: 34

System season_avg: 0.2410

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2406

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.265	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.265	0.000	-0.265	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.912	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.912	4.000	0.088	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.197	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.241	0.000	-0.241	0.000
predicted_BB	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_H	0.770	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.941	0.000	-0.941	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.088	0.000	-0.088	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.228	0.200	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.327	0.000	-0.127	0.200
predicted_R	0.647	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.647	0.000	-0.647	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.265	0.000	-0.265	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.293	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.376	0.000	-0.376	0.000
predicted_SO	0.882	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.882	3.000	-0.882	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.265	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.912	-
predicted_AVG	0.197	-
predicted_BB	0.500	-
predicted_H	0.770	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.228	-
predicted_R	0.647	-
predicted_RBI	0.170	-
predicted_SLG	0.293	-
predicted_SO	0.882	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.311	0.046
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.993	0.081
predicted_AVG	0.197	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.289	-0.211
predicted_H	0.786	0.016
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.019	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.228	-0.000
predicted_R	0.544	-0.103
predicted_RBI	0.174	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.293	0.000
predicted_SO	0.976	0.094

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.99), rates preserved: AVG=0.197 HR/AB=0.005

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.912

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	0.000	6.000	0.1905	0.1905	0.2857	0.1905	0.0000	0.0476	0.0000	0.2857
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	7.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	9.000	0.1795	0.2195	0.2564	0.1795	0.0000	0.0256	0.0513	0.2308
season	0.20	34	-	133.000	32.000	9.000	3.000	9.000	22.000	17.000	30.000	0.2406	0.3267	0.3759	0.2406	0.0226	0.0677	0.1278	0.2256

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3360
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.0370
predicted_AVG	0.1967
predicted_BB	0.1760
predicted_H	0.7940
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0180
predicted_OBP	0.2279
predicted_R	0.4880
predicted_RBI	0.1770
predicted_SLG	0.2935
predicted_SO	1.0270

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2650	0.3360	0.3112	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9120	4.0370	3.9932	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1970	0.1967	0.1968	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5000	0.1760	0.2894	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7700	0.7940	0.7856	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0180	0.0187	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2280	0.2279	0.2279	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6470	0.4880	0.5436	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1700	0.1770	0.1745	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2930	0.2935	0.2933	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8820	1.0270	0.9762	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.241

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260505_LAD@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	514888
playerID	514888
playerName	Jose Altuve
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	HOU
teamID	11

Nick Allen (669397) · BATTER · SS · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 5

All-history rows before 20260508: 5

System season_avg: 0.2860

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2857

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.800	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.800	3.000	0.200	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.286	0.333	-0.286	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.400	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.400	0.000	0.600	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.660	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.800	1.000	-0.800	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.375	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.375	0.333	-0.125	-0.083
predicted_R	0.400	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.400	0.000	0.600	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.357	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.357	0.333	-0.357	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.600	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.600	0.000	0.400	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.800	-
predicted_AVG	0.286	-
predicted_BB	0.400	-
predicted_H	0.660	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.375	-
predicted_R	0.400	-
predicted_RBI	0.000	-
predicted_SLG	0.357	-
predicted_SO	0.600	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.800	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.286	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.400	0.000
predicted_H	0.751	0.091
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.375	0.000
predicted_R	0.400	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.357	0.000
predicted_SO	0.600	0.000

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.80), rates preserved: AVG=0.268 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 5

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	0.2857	0.3750	0.3571	0.2857	0.1429	0.2143
last_10	0.35	5	-	14.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	0.2857	0.3750	0.3571	0.2857	0.1429	0.2143
season	0.20	5	-	14.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	0.2857	0.3750	0.3571	0.2857	0.1429	0.2143

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.8000
predicted_AVG	0.2857
predicted_BB	0.4000
predicted_H	0.8000
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.3750
predicted_R	0.4000
predicted_RBI	0.0000
predicted_SLG	0.3571
predicted_SO	0.6000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.8000	2.8000	2.8000	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2860	0.2857	0.2858	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4000	0.4000	0.4000	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6600	0.8000	0.7510	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3750	0.3750	0.3750	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4000	0.4000	0.4000	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3570	0.3571	0.3571	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6000	0.6000	0.6000	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	5
Season rows before report date	5
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	5
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.286

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260505_LAD@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	669397
playerID	669397
playerName	Nick Allen
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	HOU
teamID	11

Yordan Alvarez (670541) · BATTER · DH · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 38

All-history rows before 20260508: 38

System season_avg: 0.3190

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3191

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.237	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.237	0.000	0.763	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.711	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.711	2.000	1.289	3.000
predicted_AVG	0.220	0.400	0.400	Hitting_AVG	0.319	0.000	0.081	0.400
predicted_BB	0.579	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.579	0.000	-0.579	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.790	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	1.184	0.000	0.816	2.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.316	0.000	-0.316	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.303	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.423	0.000	-0.023	0.400
predicted_R	0.684	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.684	0.000	0.316	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.711	0.000	-0.711	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.319	0.600	0.600	Hitting_SLG	0.638	0.000	-0.038	0.600
predicted_SO	0.553	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.553	1.000	1.447	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.237	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.711	-
predicted_AVG	0.220	-
predicted_BB	0.579	-
predicted_H	0.790	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.303	-
predicted_R	0.684	-
predicted_RBI	0.170	-
predicted_SLG	0.319	-
predicted_SO	0.553	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.136	-0.101
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.721	0.010
predicted_AVG	0.220	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.404	-0.175
predicted_H	0.808	0.018
predicted_HBP	0.148	-
predicted_HR	0.095	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.303	-0.000
predicted_R	0.519	-0.165
predicted_RBI	0.174	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.319	0.000
predicted_SO	0.847	0.294

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.72), rates preserved: AVG=0.217 HR/AB=0.025

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	0.1667	0.2500	0.1667	0.1667	0.0000	0.0000	0.0556	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	9.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	3.000	10.000	0.2308	0.3023	0.3333	0.2308	0.0256	0.0256	0.0769	0.2564
season	0.20	38	-	141.000	45.000	9.000	12.000	27.000	26.000	22.000	21.000	0.3191	0.4226	0.6383	0.3191	0.0851	0.1915	0.1560	0.1489

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0810
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7270
predicted_AVG	0.2196
predicted_BB	0.3100
predicted_H	0.8180
predicted_HBP	0.1480
predicted_HR	0.0970
predicted_OBP	0.3028
predicted_R	0.4310
predicted_RBI	0.1760
predicted_SLG	0.3193
predicted_SO	1.0050

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2370	0.0810	0.1356	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7110	3.7270	3.7214	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2200	0.2196	0.2197	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5790	0.3100	0.4042	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7900	0.8180	0.8082	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1480	0.1480	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.0970	0.0946	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3030	0.3028	0.3029	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6840	0.4310	0.5195	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1700	0.1760	0.1739	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3190	0.3193	0.3192	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5530	1.0050	0.8468	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.319

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260506_LAD@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	670541
playerID	670541
playerName	Yordan Alvarez
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	HOU
teamID	11

Christian Walker (572233) · BATTER · 1B · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 37

All-history rows before 20260508: 37

System season_avg: 0.3090

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3088

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.243	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.243	0.000	-0.243	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.676	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.676	4.000	1.324	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.375	0.400	0.400	Hitting_AVG	0.309	0.250	0.091	0.150
predicted_BB	0.378	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.378	0.000	-0.378	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.330	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	1.135	1.000	0.865	1.000
predicted_HR	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.243	0.000	-0.243	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.432	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.379	0.250	0.021	0.150
predicted_R	0.649	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.649	1.000	0.351	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.670	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.730	0.000	-0.730	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.679	0.400	0.400	Hitting_SLG	0.574	0.250	-0.174	0.150
predicted_SO	0.784	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.784	1.000	0.216	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.243	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.676	-
predicted_AVG	0.375	-
predicted_BB	0.378	-
predicted_H	1.330	-
predicted_HR	0.320	-
predicted_OBP	0.432	-
predicted_R	0.649	-
predicted_RBI	0.670	-
predicted_SLG	0.679	-
predicted_SO	0.784	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.161	-0.082
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.682	0.006
predicted_AVG	0.375	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.286	-0.092
predicted_H	1.364	0.034
predicted_HBP	0.137	-
predicted_HR	0.330	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.432	0.000
predicted_R	0.765	0.116
predicted_RBI	0.686	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.679	0.000
predicted_SO	0.852	0.068

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.68), rates preserved: AVG=0.370 HR/AB=0.090

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	7.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	1.000	5.000	0.3889	0.4500	0.7222	0.3889	0.1111	0.1667	0.0556	0.2778
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	15.000	2.000	3.000	8.000	7.000	2.000	8.000	0.3947	0.4390	0.6842	0.3947	0.0790	0.2105	0.0526	0.2105
season	0.20	37	-	136.000	42.000	9.000	9.000	27.000	24.000	14.000	29.000	0.3088	0.3791	0.5735	0.3088	0.0662	0.1985	0.1029	0.2132

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1170
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.6850
predicted_AVG	0.3749
predicted_BB	0.2360
predicted_H	1.3820
predicted_HBP	0.1370
predicted_HR	0.3350
predicted_OBP	0.4320
predicted_R	0.8280
predicted_RBI	0.6940
predicted_SLG	0.6792
predicted_SO	0.8890

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2430	0.1170	0.1611	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6760	3.6850	3.6819	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3750	0.3749	0.3749	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3780	0.2360	0.2857	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.3300	1.3820	1.3638	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1370	0.1370	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3200	0.3350	0.3297	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4320	0.4320	0.4320	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6490	0.8280	0.7653	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6700	0.6940	0.6856	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6790	0.6792	0.6791	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7840	0.8890	0.8522	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.309

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260506_LAD@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	572233
playerID	572233
playerName	Christian Walker
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	HOU
teamID	11

Brice Matthews (694728) · BATTER · CF · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 21

All-history rows before 20260508: 21

System season_avg: 0.2210

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2206

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.190	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.190	0.000	0.810	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.238	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.238	4.000	0.762	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.242	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.221	0.250	0.029	0.000
predicted_BB	0.286	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.286	0.000	0.714	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.700	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.714	1.000	0.286	0.000
predicted_HR	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.190	1.000	-0.190	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.314	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.280	0.250	0.120	0.150
predicted_R	0.381	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.381	1.000	0.619	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.700	3.000	3.000	Hitting_RBI	0.571	1.000	2.429	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.095	0.000	-0.095	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.540	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.456	1.000	0.044	-0.500
predicted_SO	1.286	3.000	3.000	Hitting_SO	1.286	2.000	1.714	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.190	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.238	-
predicted_AVG	0.242	-
predicted_BB	0.286	-
predicted_H	0.700	-
predicted_HR	0.270	-
predicted_OBP	0.314	-
predicted_R	0.381	-
predicted_RBI	0.700	-
predicted_SLG	0.540	-
predicted_SO	1.286	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.115	-0.075
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.413	0.175
predicted_AVG	0.242	0.000
predicted_BB	0.384	0.098
predicted_H	0.797	0.097
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.305	0.035
predicted_OBP	0.314	0.000
predicted_R	0.413	0.032
predicted_RBI	0.795	0.096
predicted_SLG	0.540	0.000
predicted_SO	1.287	0.001

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.41), rates preserved: AVG=0.233 HR/AB=0.089

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	3.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	4.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	2.000	3.000	6.000	0.2353	0.3333	0.5882	0.2353	0.1177	0.2941	0.1765	0.3529
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	10.000	1.000	3.000	8.000	5.000	3.000	14.000	0.2632	0.3095	0.5263	0.2632	0.0790	0.2105	0.0790	0.3684
season	0.20	21	-	68.000	15.000	4.000	4.000	12.000	8.000	6.000	27.000	0.2206	0.2800	0.4559	0.2206	0.0588	0.1765	0.0882	0.3971

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0740
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.5080
predicted_AVG	0.2421
predicted_BB	0.4370
predicted_H	0.8490
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.3240
predicted_OBP	0.3143
predicted_R	0.4300
predicted_RBI	0.8470
predicted_SLG	0.5401
predicted_SO	1.2880

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1900	0.0740	0.1146	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2380	3.5080	3.4135	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2420	0.2421	0.2421	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2860	0.4370	0.3841	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7000	0.8490	0.7968	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2700	0.3240	0.3051	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3140	0.3143	0.3142	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3810	0.4300	0.4129	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7000	0.8470	0.7955	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5400	0.5401	0.5401	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2860	1.2880	1.2873	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	3
BB	1
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.221

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260506_LAD@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	694728
playerID	694728
playerName	Brice Matthews
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	HOU
teamID	11

Zach Dezenzo (701305) · BATTER · LF · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 1

All-history rows before 20260508: 1

System season_avg: 0.0000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.0000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	3.000	2.000	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.000	0.400	0.400	Hitting_AVG	0.000	0.000	0.400	0.400
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.000	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.000	0.000	0.400	0.400
predicted_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.000	0.400	0.400	Hitting_SLG	0.000	0.000	0.400	0.400
predicted_SO	0.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.000	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.000	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.000	-
predicted_SLG	0.000	-
predicted_SO	0.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.000	0.000
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.000	0.000
predicted_R	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.000	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.000 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	2.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB
last_5	0.45	1	-	3.000
last_10	0.35	1	-	3.000
season	0.20	1	-	3.000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.0000
predicted_AVG	0.0000
predicted_BB	0.0000
predicted_H	0.0000
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.0000
predicted_R	0.0000
predicted_RBI	0.0000
predicted_SLG	0.0000
predicted_SO	0.0000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.0000	3.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.0

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260506_LAD@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	701305
playerID	701305
playerName	Zach Dezenzo
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	HOU
teamID	11

Isaac Paredes (670623) · BATTER · 3B · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 32

All-history rows before 20260508: 32

System season_avg: 0.2700

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2696

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.188	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.188	0.000	0.812	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.594	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.594	2.000	0.406	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.304	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.270	0.500	-0.020	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.406	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.406	0.000	0.594	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.060	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.969	1.000	0.031	0.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.094	0.000	-0.094	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.425	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.368	0.500	0.032	-0.100
predicted_R	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.230	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	0.469	0.000	1.531	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.440	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.400	0.500	0.100	0.000
predicted_SO	0.688	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.688	1.000	0.312	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.188	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.594	-
predicted_AVG	0.304	-
predicted_BB	0.406	-
predicted_H	1.060	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.425	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.230	-
predicted_SLG	0.440	-
predicted_SO	0.688	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.260	0.072
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.399	-0.195
predicted_AVG	0.304	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.490	0.084
predicted_H	1.022	-0.038
predicted_HBP	0.160	-
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.425	0.000
predicted_R	0.449	-0.051
predicted_RBI	0.222	-0.008
predicted_SLG	0.440	0.000
predicted_SO	0.772	0.085

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.59), rates preserved: AVG=0.284 HR/AB=0.014

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, BvP AVG=0.111)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	0.2667	0.4211	0.4000	0.2667	0.0000	0.0000	0.2000	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	13.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	7.000	5.000	6.000	0.3714	0.4634	0.5143	0.3714	0.0286	0.1143	0.1429	0.1714
season	0.20	32	-	115.000	31.000	6.000	3.000	15.000	16.000	13.000	22.000	0.2696	0.3684	0.4000	0.2696	0.0261	0.1304	0.1130	0.1913

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2980
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.2940
predicted_AVG	0.3039
predicted_BB	0.5360
predicted_H	1.0010
predicted_HBP	0.1600
predicted_HR	0.0500
predicted_OBP	0.4254
predicted_R	0.4210
predicted_RBI	0.2180
predicted_SLG	0.4400
predicted_SO	0.8180

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1880	0.2980	0.2595	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5940	3.2940	3.3990	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3040	0.3039	0.3039	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4060	0.5360	0.4905	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0600	1.0010	1.0216	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1600	0.1600	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0500	0.0500	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4250	0.4254	0.4253	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.4210	0.4486	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2300	0.2180	0.2222	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4400	0.4400	0.4400	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6880	0.8180	0.7725	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.27

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260506_LAD@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	670623
playerID	670623
playerName	Isaac Paredes
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	HOU
teamID	11

Cam Smith (701358) · BATTER · RF · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 35

All-history rows before 20260508: 35

System season_avg: 0.2160

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2160

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.171	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.171	0.000	-0.171	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.571	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.571	3.000	0.429	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.228	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.216	0.000	0.284	0.500
predicted_BB	0.400	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.400	0.000	0.600	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.770	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.771	0.000	1.229	2.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.086	0.000	-0.086	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.267	0.600	0.600	Hitting_OBP	0.303	0.000	0.297	0.600
predicted_R	0.429	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.429	0.000	0.571	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.429	0.000	-0.429	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.086	0.000	-0.086	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.313	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.336	0.000	0.164	0.500
predicted_SO	1.143	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.143	1.000	-0.143	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.171	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.571	-
predicted_AVG	0.228	-
predicted_BB	0.400	-
predicted_H	0.770	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.267	-
predicted_R	0.429	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.313	-
predicted_SO	1.143	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.163	-0.008
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.667	0.096
predicted_AVG	0.228	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.240	-0.160
predicted_H	0.820	0.050
predicted_HBP	0.047	-
predicted_HR	0.052	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.267	-0.000
predicted_R	0.311	-0.118
predicted_RBI	0.427	0.027
predicted_SLG	0.313	0.000
predicted_SO	1.184	0.041

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.67), rates preserved: AVG=0.224 HR/AB=0.014

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	5.000	0.2632	0.2632	0.3158	0.2632	0.0000	0.1053	0.0000	0.2632
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	2.000	15.000	0.1892	0.2500	0.2973	0.1892	0.0270	0.1351	0.0541	0.4054
season	0.20	35	-	125.000	27.000	6.000	3.000	15.000	15.000	14.000	40.000	0.2160	0.3028	0.3360	0.2160	0.0240	0.1200	0.1120	0.3200

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1590
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7190
predicted_AVG	0.2279
predicted_BB	0.1540
predicted_H	0.8470
predicted_HBP	0.0470
predicted_HR	0.0530
predicted_OBP	0.2665
predicted_R	0.2480
predicted_RBI	0.4410
predicted_SLG	0.3134
predicted_SO	1.2060

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1710	0.1590	0.1632	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5710	3.7190	3.6672	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2280	0.2279	0.2279	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4000	0.1540	0.2401	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7700	0.8470	0.8200	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0470	0.0470	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0530	0.0519	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2670	0.2665	0.2667	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4290	0.2480	0.3114	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.4410	0.4266	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3130	0.3134	0.3133	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1430	1.2060	1.1840	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.216

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260506_LAD@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	701358
playerID	701358
playerName	Cam Smith
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	HOU
teamID	11

Christian Vázquez (543877) · BATTER · C · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 15

All-history rows before 20260508: 15

System season_avg: 0.3210

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3208

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.267	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.267	0.000	-0.267	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.533	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.533	3.000	-0.533	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.257	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.321	0.000	-0.321	0.000
predicted_BB	0.333	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.770	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.133	0.000	-1.133	0.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.296	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.379	0.000	-0.129	0.250
predicted_R	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.733	0.000	-0.733	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.336	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.509	0.000	-0.509	0.000
predicted_SO	0.667	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.667	1.000	1.333	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.267	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.533	-
predicted_AVG	0.257	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.770	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.296	-
predicted_R	0.400	-
predicted_RBI	0.290	-
predicted_SLG	0.336	-
predicted_SO	0.667	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.151	-0.116
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.523	-0.010
predicted_AVG	0.257	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.254	-0.079
predicted_H	0.857	0.087
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.059	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.296	-0.000
predicted_R	0.262	-0.138
predicted_RBI	0.325	0.035
predicted_SLG	0.336	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.656	-0.011

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.53), rates preserved: AVG=0.242 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	0.2222	0.2222	0.2222	0.2222	0.0000	0.0556	0.0000	0.1667
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	9.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	7.000	0.2647	0.3421	0.3824	0.2647	0.0294	0.0882	0.1177	0.2059
season	0.20	15	-	53.000	17.000	4.000	2.000	11.000	6.000	5.000	10.000	0.3208	0.3793	0.5094	0.3207	0.0377	0.2076	0.0943	0.1887

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0890
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.5170
predicted_AVG	0.2568
predicted_BB	0.2110
predicted_H	0.9030
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0630
predicted_OBP	0.2956
predicted_R	0.1880
predicted_RBI	0.3430
predicted_SLG	0.3357
predicted_SO	0.6500

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2670	0.0890	0.1513	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5330	3.5170	3.5226	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2570	0.2568	0.2569	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.2110	0.2537	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7700	0.9030	0.8565	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0630	0.0585	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2960	0.2956	0.2957	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4000	0.1880	0.2622	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2900	0.3430	0.3245	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3360	0.3357	0.3358	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6670	0.6500	0.6560	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.321

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260505_LAD@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	543877
playerID	543877
playerName	Christian Vázquez
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	HOU
teamID	11

Mike Burrows (681347) · PITCHER · Starter · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 7

All-history rows before 20260508: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	3.571	3.000	-3.571	-3.000
predicted_IP	2.200	2.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.214	6.000	-3.014	-3.800
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_SO	5.143	3.000	-2.143	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 2.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	27.000	18.000	35.000	8.000	24.000	6.000	6.0000	1.5926	0.6667	1.2963	0.2963	0.8889	0.2222
last_10	0.35	7	37.200	25.000	49.000	13.000	36.000	8.000	5.9735	1.6460	0.6637	1.3009	0.3451	0.9557	0.2124
season	0.20	7	37.200	25.000	49.000	13.000	36.000	8.000	5.9735	1.6460	0.6637	1.3009	0.3451	0.9557	0.2124

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.7240
predicted_ER	3.5470
predicted_ERA	5.9854
predicted_H	6.9270
predicted_HR	1.1560
predicted_IP	5.1000
predicted_SO	4.9370
predicted_WHIP	1.6220

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	5.0000	1.7240	2.8706	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	3.5470	2.3056	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.9854	5.9854	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	6.9270	5.2026	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	1.1560	0.7514	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	2.2000	5.1000	4.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	4.9370	4.2591	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.6220	1.6220	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.2
H	2
R	0
ER	0
BB	5
SO	3
HR	0
BF	16
Pitches	83

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	26
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	5.97
Pitching_Flyouts	5
Pitching_Groundouts	6
Pitching_H	8
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	94
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	62
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260501_HOU@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	681347
playerID	681347
playerName	Mike Burrows
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	HOU
teamID	11

Bryan Abreu (650556) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 13

All-history rows before 20260508: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.877	1.000	0.323	0.200
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.538	3.000	-0.538	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	4.000	6.000	4.000	8.000	1.000	6.0000	1.6667	0.6667	1.0000	0.6667	1.3333	0.1667
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	8.000	11.000	12.000	14.000	2.000	7.2000	2.3000	0.8000	1.1000	1.2000	1.4000	0.2000
season	0.20	13	12.100	13.000	13.000	16.000	20.000	4.000	9.4865	2.3514	1.0540	1.0540	1.2973	1.6216	0.3243

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.1260
predicted_ER	0.9090
predicted_ERA	7.1173
predicted_H	1.2030
predicted_HR	0.2410
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.6260
predicted_WHIP	2.0253

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	1.1260	0.7319	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.9090	0.9408	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	7.1173	7.1173	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.2030	0.7820	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2410	0.1567	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.0000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.6260	1.4069	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	2.0253	2.0253	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	9.49
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_LAD@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	650556
playerID	650556
playerName	Bryan Abreu
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	HOU
teamID	11

Kai-Wei Teng (678906) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 14

All-history rows before 20260508: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.429	0.000	-0.429	0.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.443	2.000	-0.243	-0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.571	2.000	-0.571	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	9.100	3.000	8.000	2.000	8.000	1.000	2.8929	1.0714	0.3214	0.8571	0.2143	0.8571	0.1071
last_10	0.35	10	16.200	4.000	10.000	6.000	16.000	1.000	2.1600	0.9600	0.2400	0.6000	0.3600	0.9600	0.0600
season	0.20	14	23.000	6.000	15.000	7.000	22.000	3.000	2.3478	0.9565	0.2609	0.6522	0.3044	0.9565	0.1304

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5150
predicted_ER	0.5100
predicted_ERA	2.5274
predicted_H	1.3190
predicted_HR	0.1730
predicted_IP	1.2000
predicted_SO	1.6590
predicted_WHIP	1.0094

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5150	0.3348	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5100	0.3315	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.5274	2.5274	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.3190	0.8573	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1730	0.1124	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.2000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.6590	1.4284	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0094	1.0094	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	12

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.35
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	31
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	18
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_LAD@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	678906
playerID	678906
playerName	Kai-Wei Teng
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	HOU
teamID	11

AJ Blubaugh (805123) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 14

All-history rows before 20260508: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.929	1.000	0.071	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.471	3.200	-0.471	-2.200
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.429	5.000	0.571	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	8.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	8.000	1.000	2.2500	1.0000	0.2500	0.3750	0.6250	1.0000	0.1250
last_10	0.35	10	14.200	8.000	11.000	11.000	13.000	2.000	4.9091	1.5000	0.5454	0.7500	0.7500	0.8864	0.1364
season	0.20	14	22.000	13.000	18.000	13.000	20.000	4.000	5.3182	1.4091	0.5909	0.8182	0.5909	0.9091	0.1818

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.0260
predicted_ER	0.6530
predicted_ERA	3.7943
predicted_H	0.9220
predicted_HR	0.2180
predicted_IP	1.2000
predicted_SO	1.4600
predicted_WHIP	1.2568

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	1.0260	0.6669	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.6530	0.7745	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.7943	3.7943	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.9220	0.9493	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.2180	0.4917	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.2000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.4600	1.6490	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2568	1.2568	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	2
HR	1
BF	4
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	15
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	5.32
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	3.2
Pitching_Pitches	59
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	5
Pitching_Strikes	34
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_HOU@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	805123
playerID	805123
playerName	AJ Blubaugh
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	HOU
teamID	11

Bryan King (687911) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 13

All-history rows before 20260508: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.462	1.000	-0.462	-1.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.062	2.000	-0.862	-1.800
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.154	2.000	-1.154	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	4.000	7.000	2.000	3.000	6.3529	1.5882	0.7059	1.2353	0.3529	0.5294
last_10	0.35	10	13.000	5.000	13.000	4.000	10.000	3.4615	1.3077	0.3846	1.0000	0.3077	0.7692
season	0.20	13	15.200	6.000	16.000	5.000	15.000	3.4468	1.3404	0.3830	1.0213	0.3191	0.9575

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3910
predicted_ER	0.6260
predicted_ERA	4.7597
predicted_H	1.3140
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	0.8270
predicted_WHIP	1.4405

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3910	0.2542	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.6260	0.4069	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.7597	4.7597	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.3140	0.8541	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.8270	0.5375	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4405	1.4405	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	9

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	9
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	3.45
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	37
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	26
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_LAD@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	687911
playerID	687911
playerName	Bryan King
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	HOU
teamID	11

Enyel De Los Santos (660853) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 14

All-history rows before 20260508: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.571	0.000	-0.571	0.000
predicted_IP	0.100	0.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.971	1.000	-0.871	-0.900
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.857	0.000	-0.857	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 0.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	4.000	7.000	1.000	4.000	0.000	6.3529	1.4118	0.7059	1.2353	0.1765	0.7059	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	7.000	11.000	3.000	9.000	0.000	6.5172	1.4483	0.7241	1.1379	0.3103	0.9310	0.0000
season	0.20	14	15.000	8.000	15.000	4.000	12.000	1.000	4.8000	1.2667	0.5333	1.0000	0.2667	0.8000	0.0667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2410
predicted_ER	0.6780
predicted_ERA	6.0998
predicted_H	1.1540
predicted_HR	0.0130
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8040
predicted_WHIP	1.3956

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2410	0.1567	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.6780	0.4407	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	6.0998	6.0998	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.1540	1.1001	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0130	0.3584	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	1.0000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.8040	0.5226	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3956	1.3956	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	1
BF	4
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.80
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_LAD@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	660853
playerID	660853
playerName	Enyel De Los Santos
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	HOU
teamID	11

Bennett Sousa (656986) · PITCHER · Reliever · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 5

All-history rows before 20260508: 5

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.600	0.000	0.400	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.620	1.000	0.380	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.800	0.000	0.200	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 4

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	4	3.100	2.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	5.4000	1.5000	0.6000	0.3000	1.2000	1.2000
last_10	0.35	4	3.100	2.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	5.4000	1.5000	0.6000	0.3000	1.2000	1.2000
season	0.20	4	3.100	2.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	5.4000	1.5000	0.6000	0.3000	1.2000	1.2000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.8000
predicted_ER	0.4000
predicted_ERA	5.4000
predicted_H	0.2000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.8000
predicted_WHIP	1.5000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.8000	0.5200	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.4000	0.6100	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.4000	5.4000	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	0.2000	1.1800	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8000	0.8700	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5000	1.5000	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	5
Season rows before report date	5
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	4
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	3
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	8.10
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	8
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_LAD@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	656986
playerID	656986
playerName	Bennett Sousa
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	HOU
teamID	11

Home Team: CIN

Nathaniel Lowe (663993) · BATTER · DH · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 20

All-history rows before 20260508: 20

System season_avg: 0.2790

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2794

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.400	2.000	2.000	Hitting_AB	3.400	4.000	-1.400	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.284	1.000	1.000	Hitting_AVG	0.279	0.250	0.721	0.750
predicted_BB	0.450	2.000	2.000	Hitting_BB	0.450	1.000	1.550	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.920	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.950	1.000	1.050	1.000
predicted_HR	0.240	2.000	2.000	Hitting_HR	0.300	0.000	1.700	2.000
predicted_OBP	0.359	1.000	1.000	Hitting_OBP	0.364	0.400	0.636	0.600
predicted_R	0.450	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.450	0.000	0.550	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.700	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	0.750	0.000	1.250	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.565	4.000	4.000	Hitting_SLG	0.618	0.250	3.382	3.750
predicted_SO	0.800	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.800	1.000	-0.800	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.400	-
predicted_AVG	0.284	-
predicted_BB	0.450	-
predicted_H	0.920	-
predicted_HR	0.240	-
predicted_OBP	0.359	-
predicted_R	0.450	-
predicted_RBI	0.700	-
predicted_SLG	0.565	-
predicted_SO	0.800	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.224	-0.026
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.458	0.058
predicted_AVG	0.284	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.425	-0.025
predicted_H	0.966	0.046
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.251	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.359	0.000
predicted_R	0.367	-0.083
predicted_RBI	0.735	0.035
predicted_SLG	0.565	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.994	0.194

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.46), rates preserved: AVG=0.279 HR/AB=0.073

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-1.000
BB	2.000	2.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	2.000	2.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	0.2778	0.3500	0.5000	0.2778	0.0556	0.2222	0.1111	0.3889
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	10.000	2.000	3.000	7.000	4.000	4.000	9.000	0.2941	0.3684	0.6176	0.2941	0.0882	0.2059	0.1177	0.2647
season	0.20	20	-	68.000	19.000	5.000	6.000	15.000	9.000	9.000	16.000	0.2794	0.3636	0.6176	0.2794	0.0882	0.2206	0.1323	0.2353

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2100
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.4900
predicted_AVG	0.2838
predicted_BB	0.4110
predicted_H	0.9910
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.2570
predicted_OBP	0.3592
predicted_R	0.3230
predicted_RBI	0.7540
predicted_SLG	0.5647
predicted_SO	1.0980

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.2100	0.2240	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4000	3.4900	3.4585	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2840	0.2838	0.2839	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4500	0.4110	0.4246	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9200	0.9910	0.9662	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2400	0.2570	0.2510	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3590	0.3592	0.3591	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4500	0.3230	0.3675	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7000	0.7540	0.7351	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5650	0.5647	0.5648	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8000	1.0980	0.9937	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	2
R	1
RBI	2
BB	2
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.279

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260506_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	663993
playerID	663993
playerName	Nathaniel Lowe
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	CIN
teamID	7

Sal Stewart (701398) · BATTER · 1B · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 38

All-history rows before 20260508: 38

System season_avg: 0.2450

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2448

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.158	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.158	0.000	-0.158	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.763	2.000	2.000	Hitting_AB	3.763	4.000	-1.763	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.245	0.250	-0.245	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.526	2.000	2.000	Hitting_BB	0.526	1.000	1.474	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.580	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.921	1.000	-0.921	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.263	1.000	-0.263	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.234	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.400	0.167	0.100
predicted_R	0.579	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.579	2.000	-0.579	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.789	1.000	-0.789	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.184	0.000	-0.184	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.313	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.497	1.000	-0.497	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.789	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.789	1.000	-0.789	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.158	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.763	-
predicted_AVG	0.160	-
predicted_BB	0.526	-
predicted_H	0.580	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.234	-
predicted_R	0.579	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.313	-
predicted_SO	0.789	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.100	-0.058
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.886	0.123
predicted_AVG	0.160	0.000
predicted_BB	0.439	-0.087
predicted_H	0.615	0.035
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.172	0.012
predicted_OBP	0.234	0.000
predicted_R	0.487	-0.092
predicted_RBI	0.282	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.313	0.000
predicted_SO	0.795	0.006

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.89), rates preserved: AVG=0.158 HR/AB=0.044

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-2.000
BB	2.000	2.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	0.1500	0.2273	0.3000	0.1500	0.0500	0.0500	0.1000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	8.000	0.1250	0.1860	0.2250	0.1250	0.0250	0.0250	0.0750	0.2000
season	0.20	38	-	143.000	35.000	6.000	10.000	30.000	22.000	20.000	30.000	0.2448	0.3333	0.4965	0.2448	0.0699	0.2098	0.1399	0.2098

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0680
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.9530
predicted_AVG	0.1602
predicted_BB	0.3920
predicted_H	0.6330
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1790
predicted_OBP	0.2340
predicted_R	0.4380
predicted_RBI	0.2890
predicted_SLG	0.3130
predicted_SO	0.7980

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1580	0.0680	0.0995	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7630	3.9530	3.8865	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1600	0.1602	0.1601	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5260	0.3920	0.4389	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5800	0.6330	0.6145	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.1790	0.1724	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2340	0.2340	0.2340	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5790	0.4380	0.4873	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.2890	0.2823	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3130	0.3130	0.3130	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7890	0.7980	0.7949	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.245

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260507_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	701398
playerID	701398
playerName	Sal Stewart
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	CIN
teamID	7

Spencer Steer (668715) · BATTER · RF · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 35

All-history rows before 20260508: 35

System season_avg: 0.2480

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2479

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.171	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.171	0.000	-0.171	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.457	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.457	3.000	-0.457	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.315	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.248	0.333	-0.248	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.343	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.343	2.000	0.657	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.980	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.857	1.000	-0.857	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.171	0.000	-0.171	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.390	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.328	0.600	-0.078	-0.350
predicted_R	0.371	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.371	0.000	-0.371	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.343	0.000	-0.343	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.498	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.446	0.333	-0.446	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.943	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.943	0.000	1.057	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.171	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.457	-
predicted_AVG	0.315	-
predicted_BB	0.343	-
predicted_H	0.980	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.390	-
predicted_R	0.371	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.498	-
predicted_SO	0.943	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.107	-0.064
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.544	0.087
predicted_AVG	0.315	0.000
predicted_BB	0.397	0.054
predicted_H	1.079	0.099
predicted_HBP	0.018	-
predicted_HR	0.186	0.016
predicted_OBP	0.390	-0.000
predicted_R	0.307	-0.064
predicted_RBI	0.441	0.041
predicted_SLG	0.498	0.000
predicted_SO	0.767	-0.175

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.54), rates preserved: AVG=0.304 HR/AB=0.053

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	6.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	0.3158	0.3810	0.4737	0.3158	0.0526	0.1053	0.1053	0.1579
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	12.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	3.000	5.000	6.000	0.3529	0.4359	0.5588	0.3529	0.0588	0.1765	0.1471	0.1765
season	0.20	35	-	121.000	30.000	6.000	6.000	12.000	13.000	12.000	33.000	0.2479	0.3285	0.4463	0.2479	0.0496	0.0992	0.0992	0.2727

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0730
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.5910
predicted_AVG	0.3152
predicted_BB	0.4260
predicted_H	1.1320
predicted_HBP	0.0180
predicted_HR	0.1950
predicted_OBP	0.3897
predicted_R	0.2730
predicted_RBI	0.4630
predicted_SLG	0.4980
predicted_SO	0.6730

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1710	0.0730	0.1073	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4570	3.5910	3.5441	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3150	0.3152	0.3151	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3430	0.4260	0.3969	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9800	1.1320	1.0788	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0180	0.0180	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.1950	0.1862	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3900	0.3897	0.3898	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3710	0.2730	0.3073	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.4630	0.4410	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4980	0.4980	0.4980	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9430	0.6730	0.7675	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.248

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260507_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	668715
playerID	668715
playerName	Spencer Steer
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	CIN
teamID	7

Matt McLain (680574) · BATTER · 2B · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 34

All-history rows before 20260508: 34

System season_avg: 0.2050

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2045

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.176	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.176	0.000	0.824	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.882	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.882	4.000	0.118	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.171	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.205	0.250	0.045	0.000
predicted_BB	0.529	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.529	1.000	-0.529	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_H	0.560	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.794	1.000	0.206	0.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.088	0.000	-0.088	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.233	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.309	0.400	-0.059	-0.150
predicted_R	0.441	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.441	0.000	0.559	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.190	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.294	0.000	0.706	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.306	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.318	0.250	0.182	0.250
predicted_SO	1.088	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.088	1.000	-1.088	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.176	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.882	-
predicted_AVG	0.171	-
predicted_BB	0.529	-
predicted_H	0.560	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.233	-
predicted_R	0.441	-
predicted_RBI	0.190	-
predicted_SLG	0.306	-
predicted_SO	1.088	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.106	-0.070
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.781	-0.101
predicted_AVG	0.171	0.000
predicted_BB	0.379	-0.150
predicted_H	0.611	0.051
predicted_HBP	0.011	-
predicted_HR	0.139	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.233	0.000
predicted_R	0.397	-0.044
predicted_RBI	0.208	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.306	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.944	-0.144

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.88), rates preserved: AVG=0.157 HR/AB=0.036

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.882

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	0.1667	0.2105	0.3333	0.1667	0.0556	0.0556	0.0556	0.1667
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	11.000	0.1579	0.2195	0.2632	0.1579	0.0263	0.0526	0.0790	0.2895
season	0.20	34	-	132.000	27.000	6.000	3.000	10.000	15.000	18.000	37.000	0.2045	0.3092	0.3182	0.2046	0.0227	0.0758	0.1364	0.2803

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0680
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7260
predicted_AVG	0.1712
predicted_BB	0.2980
predicted_H	0.6380
predicted_HBP	0.0110
predicted_HR	0.1440
predicted_OBP	0.2334
predicted_R	0.3740
predicted_RBI	0.2180
predicted_SLG	0.3057
predicted_SO	0.8660

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1760	0.0680	0.1058	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8820	3.7260	3.7806	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1710	0.1712	0.1711	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5290	0.2980	0.3789	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5600	0.6380	0.6107	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0110	0.0110	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1440	0.1391	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2330	0.2334	0.2333	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4410	0.3740	0.3974	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1900	0.2180	0.2082	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3060	0.3057	0.3058	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0880	0.8660	0.9437	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.205

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260507_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	680574
playerID	680574
playerName	Matt McLain
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	CIN
teamID	7

JJ Bleday (668709) · BATTER · LF · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 10

All-history rows before 20260508: 10

System season_avg: 0.3030

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3030

Diff (system - data): -0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	1.000	-0.200	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.300	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.300	4.000	1.700	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.302	0.200	0.200	Hitting_AVG	0.303	0.250	-0.103	-0.050
predicted_BB	0.600	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.600	1.000	-0.600	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_H	0.960	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_HR	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.389	0.200	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.410	0.400	-0.210	-0.200
predicted_R	0.600	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.600	0.000	-0.600	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.660	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.700	1.000	-0.700	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.693	0.200	0.200	Hitting_SLG	0.727	0.500	-0.527	-0.300
predicted_SO	0.700	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.700	0.000	1.300	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.300	-
predicted_AVG	0.302	-
predicted_BB	0.600	-
predicted_H	0.960	-
predicted_HR	0.360	-
predicted_OBP	0.389	-
predicted_R	0.600	-
predicted_RBI	0.660	-
predicted_SLG	0.693	-
predicted_SO	0.700	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.201	0.001
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.505	0.205
predicted_AVG	0.302	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.551	-0.049
predicted_H	1.045	0.085
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.389	0.029
predicted_OBP	0.389	0.000
predicted_R	0.551	-0.049
predicted_RBI	0.717	0.057
predicted_SLG	0.693	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.783	0.083

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.298 HR/AB=0.111

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 10

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	0.3000	0.3636	0.6500	0.3000	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	10.000	2.000	4.000	7.000	6.000	6.000	7.000	0.3030	0.4103	0.7273	0.3030	0.1212	0.2121	0.1818	0.2121
season	0.20	10	-	33.000	10.000	2.000	4.000	7.000	6.000	6.000	7.000	0.3030	0.4103	0.7273	0.3030	0.1212	0.2121	0.1818	0.2121

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2020
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.6150
predicted_AVG	0.3016
predicted_BB	0.5240
predicted_H	1.0910
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.4040
predicted_OBP	0.3893
predicted_R	0.5240
predicted_RBI	0.7470
predicted_SLG	0.6925
predicted_SO	0.8280

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.2020	0.2013	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3000	3.6150	3.5048	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3020	0.3016	0.3017	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6000	0.5240	0.5506	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9600	1.0910	1.0452	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3600	0.4040	0.3886	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3890	0.3893	0.3892	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6000	0.5240	0.5506	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6600	0.7470	0.7166	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6930	0.6925	0.6927	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7000	0.8280	0.7832	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	10
Season rows before report date	10
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	10
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.303

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260507_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	668709
playerID	668709
playerName	JJ Bleday
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	CIN
teamID	7

TJ Friedl (670770) · BATTER · CF · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 32

All-history rows before 20260508: 32

System season_avg: 0.1980

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1984

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.188	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.188	0.000	-0.188	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.938	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.938	3.000	1.062	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.213	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.198	0.333	-0.198	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.344	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.344	1.000	-0.344	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.840	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.781	1.000	-0.781	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.279	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.279	0.500	-0.279	-0.500
predicted_R	0.438	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.438	1.000	-0.438	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.219	0.000	-0.219	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.347	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.294	0.333	-0.294	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.938	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.938	1.000	0.062	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.188	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.938	-
predicted_AVG	0.213	-
predicted_BB	0.344	-
predicted_H	0.840	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.279	-
predicted_R	0.438	-
predicted_RBI	0.150	-
predicted_SLG	0.347	-
predicted_SO	0.938	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.239	0.051
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.831	-0.107
predicted_AVG	0.213	0.000
predicted_BB	0.246	-0.097
predicted_H	0.817	-0.023
predicted_HBP	0.146	-
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.279	0.000
predicted_R	0.463	0.025
predicted_RBI	0.145	-0.005
predicted_SLG	0.347	0.000
predicted_SO	0.889	-0.049

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.94), rates preserved: AVG=0.208 HR/AB=0.020

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.938

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.1667	0.2500	0.2222	0.1667	0.0000	0.0000	0.0556	0.2222
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	11.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	6.000	1.000	9.000	0.2821	0.3171	0.5385	0.2821	0.0513	0.0769	0.0256	0.2308
season	0.20	32	-	126.000	25.000	6.000	2.000	7.000	14.000	11.000	30.000	0.1984	0.2786	0.2937	0.1984	0.0159	0.0556	0.0873	0.2381

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2660
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7730
predicted_AVG	0.2134
predicted_BB	0.1940
predicted_H	0.8050
predicted_HBP	0.1460
predicted_HR	0.0800
predicted_OBP	0.2792
predicted_R	0.4760
predicted_RBI	0.1430
predicted_SLG	0.3472
predicted_SO	0.8620

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1880	0.2660	0.2387	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9380	3.7730	3.8308	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2130	0.2134	0.2133	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3440	0.1940	0.2465	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8400	0.8050	0.8173	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1460	0.1460	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0800	0.0800	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2790	0.2792	0.2791	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4380	0.4760	0.4627	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1500	0.1430	0.1454	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3470	0.3472	0.3471	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9380	0.8620	0.8886	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.198

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260506_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	670770
playerID	670770
playerName	TJ Friedl
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	CIN
teamID	7

Tyler Stephenson (663886) · BATTER · C · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 27

All-history rows before 20260508: 27

System season_avg: 0.1800

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1798

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.111	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.111	0.000	0.889	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.296	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.296	4.000	0.704	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.204	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.180	0.000	0.320	0.500
predicted_BB	0.519	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.519	1.000	-0.519	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.600	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.593	0.000	1.407	2.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.074	0.000	-0.074	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.295	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.288	0.200	0.212	0.300
predicted_R	0.148	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.148	0.000	0.852	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.278	0.750	0.750	Hitting_SLG	0.281	0.000	0.469	0.750
predicted_SO	1.148	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.148	2.000	-1.148	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.296	-
predicted_AVG	0.204	-
predicted_BB	0.519	-
predicted_H	0.600	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.295	-
predicted_R	0.148	-
predicted_RBI	0.070	-
predicted_SLG	0.278	-
predicted_SO	1.148	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.179	0.068
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.454	0.158
predicted_AVG	0.204	0.000
predicted_BB	0.481	-0.038
predicted_H	0.679	0.079
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.014	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.295	0.000
predicted_R	0.095	-0.053
predicted_RBI	0.078	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.278	0.000
predicted_SO	1.220	0.072

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.45), rates preserved: AVG=0.197 HR/AB=0.004

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	6.000	0.2222	0.3000	0.2778	0.2222	0.0000	0.0000	0.1111	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	7.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	14.000	0.1944	0.2927	0.2778	0.1944	0.0000	0.0278	0.1389	0.3889
season	0.20	27	-	89.000	16.000	3.000	2.000	6.000	4.000	14.000	31.000	0.1798	0.2885	0.2809	0.1798	0.0225	0.0674	0.1573	0.3483

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2160
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.5390
predicted_AVG	0.2040
predicted_BB	0.4600
predicted_H	0.7220
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0160
predicted_OBP	0.2951
predicted_R	0.0660
predicted_RBI	0.0820
predicted_SLG	0.2784
predicted_SO	1.2590

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1110	0.2160	0.1792	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2960	3.5390	3.4540	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2040	0.2040	0.2040	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5190	0.4600	0.4807	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6000	0.7220	0.6793	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0160	0.0139	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2950	0.2951	0.2951	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1480	0.0660	0.0947	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0700	0.0820	0.0778	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2780	0.2784	0.2783	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1480	1.2590	1.2201	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260507_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	663886
playerID	663886
playerName	Tyler Stephenson
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	CIN
teamID	7

Ke'Bryan Hayes (663647) · BATTER · 3B · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 29

All-history rows before 20260508: 29

System season_avg: 0.1370

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1368

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.034	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.034	0.000	-0.034	0.000
predicted_3B	0.034	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.034	0.000	-0.034	0.000
predicted_AB	3.276	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.276	4.000	0.724	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.180	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.137	0.500	0.113	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.241	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.241	0.000	-0.241	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.490	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.448	2.000	0.552	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.069	0.000	-0.069	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.219	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.196	0.500	0.054	-0.250
predicted_R	0.241	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.241	0.000	-0.241	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.210	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.103	0.000	-0.103	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.332	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.232	0.500	0.018	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.586	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.586	1.000	-0.586	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.034	-
predicted_3B	0.034	-
predicted_AB	3.276	-
predicted_AVG	0.180	-
predicted_BB	0.241	-
predicted_H	0.490	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.219	-
predicted_R	0.241	-
predicted_RBI	0.210	-
predicted_SLG	0.332	-
predicted_SO	0.586	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.039	0.005
predicted_3B	0.039	0.005
predicted_AB	3.444	0.168
predicted_AVG	0.180	0.000
predicted_BB	0.198	-0.043
predicted_H	0.586	0.096
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.128	0.018
predicted_OBP	0.219	0.000
predicted_R	0.265	0.024
predicted_RBI	0.248	0.038
predicted_SLG	0.332	0.000
predicted_SO	0.878	0.292

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.44), rates preserved: AVG=0.170 HR/AB=0.037

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	0.1667	0.2105	0.3333	0.1667	0.0556	0.1111	0.0556	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	11.000	0.2222	0.2432	0.3889	0.2222	0.0278	0.0556	0.0278	0.3056
season	0.20	29	-	95.000	13.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	7.000	7.000	17.000	0.1368	0.1961	0.2316	0.1368	0.0210	0.0316	0.0737	0.1789

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0420
predicted_3B	0.0420
predicted_AB	3.5350
predicted_AVG	0.1801
predicted_BB	0.1750
predicted_H	0.6370
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1380
predicted_OBP	0.2191
predicted_R	0.2780
predicted_RBI	0.2680
predicted_SLG	0.3324
predicted_SO	1.0350

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0340	0.0420	0.0392	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0340	0.0420	0.0392	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2760	3.5350	3.4444	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1800	0.1801	0.1801	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2410	0.1750	0.1981	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4900	0.6370	0.5856	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1380	0.1282	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2190	0.2191	0.2191	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2410	0.2780	0.2651	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2100	0.2680	0.2477	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3320	0.3324	0.3323	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5860	1.0350	0.8778	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.137

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260507_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	663647
playerID	663647
playerName	Ke'Bryan Hayes
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	CIN
teamID	7

Elly De La Cruz (682829) · BATTER · SS · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 38

All-history rows before 20260508: 38

System season_avg: 0.2650

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2649

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.184	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.184	1.000	-0.184	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.974	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.974	5.000	1.026	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.265	0.200	-0.265	-0.200
predicted_BB	0.447	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.447	0.000	-0.447	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.079	0.000	-0.079	0.000
predicted_H	0.850	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.053	1.000	-1.053	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.263	0.000	-0.263	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.337	0.200	-0.337	-0.200
predicted_R	0.711	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.711	0.000	-0.711	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.670	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.737	0.000	-0.737	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.211	0.000	-0.211	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.338	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.510	0.400	-0.510	-0.400
predicted_SO	1.263	3.000	3.000	Hitting_SO	1.263	1.000	1.737	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.184	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.974	-
predicted_AVG	0.222	-
predicted_BB	0.447	-
predicted_H	0.850	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.286	-
predicted_R	0.711	-
predicted_RBI	0.670	-
predicted_SLG	0.338	-
predicted_SO	1.263	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.193	0.009
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.001	0.027
predicted_AVG	0.222	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.423	-0.024
predicted_H	0.876	0.026
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.286	-0.000
predicted_R	0.415	-0.296
predicted_RBI	0.691	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.338	0.000
predicted_SO	1.232	-0.031

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.219 HR/AB=0.022

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.974

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	6.000	0.1905	0.2500	0.2381	0.1905	0.0000	0.1429	0.0952	0.2857
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	9.000	2.000	1.000	8.000	3.000	4.000	12.000	0.2368	0.3023	0.3684	0.2368	0.0263	0.2105	0.1053	0.3158
season	0.20	38	-	151.000	40.000	7.000	10.000	28.000	27.000	17.000	48.000	0.2649	0.3373	0.5099	0.2649	0.0662	0.1854	0.1126	0.3179

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1970
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.0150
predicted_AVG	0.2216
predicted_BB	0.4100
predicted_H	0.8900
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0900
predicted_OBP	0.2858
predicted_R	0.2550
predicted_RBI	0.7030
predicted_SLG	0.3381
predicted_SO	1.2150

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1840	0.1970	0.1925	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9740	4.0150	4.0007	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2220	0.2216	0.2217	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4470	0.4100	0.4230	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8500	0.8900	0.8760	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.0900	0.0900	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2860	0.2858	0.2859	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7110	0.2550	0.4146	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6700	0.7030	0.6914	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3380	0.3381	0.3381	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2630	1.2150	1.2318	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.265

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260507_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	682829
playerID	682829
playerName	Elly De La Cruz
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	CIN
teamID	7

Nick Lodolo (666157) · PITCHER · Starter · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 0

All-history rows before 20260508: 0

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_ER	-	-	-	-
predicted_IP	3.100	3.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	-	-	-	-
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	-	Pitching_SO	-	-	-	-

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 0

Reference playing time: 3.333

Window	Weight	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
last_10	0.35	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
season	0.20	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.0000
predicted_ER	0.0000
predicted_H	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	3.1000
predicted_SO	0.0000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	0.0000	1.0500	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	0.0000	1.0500	model_form_blend
predicted_H	5.0000	0.0000	1.7500	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	3.1000	3.1000	3.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	0.0000	1.7500	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	0
Season rows before report date	0
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	0
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	3.1
H	5
R	3
ER	3
BB	3
SO	5
HR	0
BF	20
Pitches	93

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

No historical data found for this player before report date.

Pierce Johnson (572955) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 16

All-history rows before 20260508: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.644	0.100	0.556	1.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.812	0.000	0.188	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	3.000	5.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	6.7500	1.7500	0.7500	1.2500	0.5000	0.7500	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	3.000	9.000	3.000	10.000	1.000	2.8929	1.2857	0.3214	0.9643	0.3214	1.0714	0.1071
season	0.20	16	13.100	6.000	15.000	4.000	13.000	2.000	4.0500	1.4250	0.4500	1.1250	0.3000	0.9750	0.1500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3110
predicted_ER	0.4230
predicted_ERA	4.8600
predicted_H	0.8810
predicted_HR	0.1410
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.7110
predicted_WHIP	1.5225

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3110	0.2021	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4230	0.2750	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.8600	4.8600	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.8810	0.9226	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1410	0.0916	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	0.2000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.7110	0.8121	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5225	1.5225	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	1
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.05
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	5
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	4
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	572955
playerID	572955
playerName	Pierce Johnson
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CIN
teamID	7

Tony Santillan (663574) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 16

All-history rows before 20260508: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.312	1.000	2.688	2.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.950	1.000	0.250	0.200
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	5.000	8.000	3.000	4.000	3.000	9.0000	2.2000	1.0000	1.6000	0.6000	0.8000	0.6000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	5.000	10.000	4.000	8.000	3.000	4.6552	1.4483	0.5172	1.0345	0.4138	0.8276	0.3103
season	0.20	16	15.200	5.000	11.000	9.000	16.000	3.000	2.8723	1.2766	0.3191	0.7021	0.5745	1.0213	0.1915

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5300
predicted_ER	0.6950
predicted_ERA	6.2538
predicted_H	1.2220
predicted_HR	0.4170
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8540
predicted_WHIP	1.7522

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.5300	1.0445	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	0.6950	1.5017	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	6.2538	6.2538	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	1.2220	1.4943	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.4170	0.2711	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.0000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.8540	1.2551	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.7522	1.7522	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	2
R	3
ER	3
BB	2
SO	2
HR	0
BF	7
Pitches	42

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	2.87
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	663574
playerID	663574
playerName	Tony Santillan
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CIN
teamID	7

Connor Phillips (683175) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 19

All-history rows before 20260508: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.632	5.000	-0.632	-5.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.905	1.000	0.195	0.100
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.105	0.000	1.895	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	7.000	8.000	3.000	7.000	0.000	10.5000	1.8333	1.1667	1.3333	0.5000	1.1667	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	7.000	10.000	7.000	12.000	0.000	5.9062	1.5938	0.6562	0.9375	0.6562	1.1250	0.0000
season	0.20	18	20.000	10.000	15.000	17.000	21.000	1.000	4.5000	1.6000	0.5000	0.7500	0.8500	1.0500	0.0500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.7180
predicted_ER	0.9830
predicted_ERA	7.6922
predicted_H	1.2400
predicted_HR	0.0120
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.2980
predicted_WHIP	1.7028

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.7180	0.4667	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.9830	0.6390	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	7.6922	7.6922	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.2400	0.8060	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0120	0.0078	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.0000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	1.2980	1.8937	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.7028	1.7028	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	3
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	8
Pitching_ER	5
Pitching_ERA	5.40
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	2
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	27
Pitching_R	5
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	14
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	683175
playerID	683175
playerName	Connor Phillips
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CIN
teamID	7

Graham Ashcraft (668933) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 18

All-history rows before 20260508: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.222	2.000	-0.222	-2.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.972	1.000	-0.772	-0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.111	1.000	-0.111	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	2.000	5.000	5.000	6.000	1.000	3.1765	1.7647	0.3529	0.8823	0.8823	1.0588	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	2.000	7.000	9.000	9.000	1.000	1.6875	1.5000	0.1875	0.6562	0.8438	0.8438	0.0938
season	0.20	18	18.200	4.000	13.000	12.000	20.000	1.000	1.9286	1.3393	0.2143	0.6964	0.6429	1.0714	0.0536

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.8210
predicted_ER	0.2670
predicted_ERA	2.4058
predicted_H	0.7660
predicted_HR	0.1230
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9860
predicted_WHIP	1.5870

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.8210	0.5336	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2670	0.1736	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.4058	2.4058	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7660	0.4979	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1230	0.0800	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9860	0.9909	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5870	1.5870	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	1.93
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	27
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	17
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	668933
playerID	668933
playerName	Graham Ashcraft
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CIN
teamID	7

Brock Burke (656271) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 18

All-history rows before 20260508: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_IP	0.100	0.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.744	0.200	-0.644	-0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.167	1.000	-1.167	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 0.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	5.000	8.000	7.000	7.000	10.3846	3.4615	1.1539	1.8461	1.6154	1.6154
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	5.000	11.000	8.000	13.000	5.0000	2.1111	0.5556	1.2222	0.8889	1.4444
season	0.20	18	16.200	6.000	16.000	11.000	21.000	3.2400	1.6200	0.3600	0.9600	0.6600	1.2600

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.1700
predicted_ER	0.7860
predicted_ERA	7.0711
predicted_H	1.4510
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.4840
predicted_WHIP	2.6206

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	1.1700	1.1105	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.7860	0.5109	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	7.0711	7.0711	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	1.4510	1.6431	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	1.0000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.4840	0.9646	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	2.6206	2.6206	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.1
H	2
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.24
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	5
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	656271
playerID	656271
playerName	Brock Burke
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CIN
teamID	7

20260508_LAA@TOR

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 3, "confidence": 0.5997525573111573, "home_win_probability": 0.4002474426888427, "away_win_probability": 0.5997525573111573, "predicted_score_text": "LAA 7 - 3 TOR", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to final winner probability with starter-quality caps.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "predicted_score_text": "LAA 5 - 4 TOR", "confidence": 0.5997525573111573, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score", "final_prediction_synced": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "LAA 5 - 4 TOR", "winner": "LAA"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "LAA 7 - 3 TOR", "winner": "LAA"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 2, "home_run_delta": -1, "total_run_delta": 1, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"}}

Away Team: LAA

Jorge Soler (624585) · BATTER · DH · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 34

All-history rows before 20260508: 34

System season_avg: 0.2380

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2377

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.147	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.147	0.000	-0.147	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.588	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.588	1.000	0.412	3.000
predicted_AVG	0.255	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.238	1.000	-0.238	-1.000
predicted_BB	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.500	2.000	-0.500	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.880	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.853	1.000	-0.853	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.235	0.000	-0.235	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.389	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.342	1.000	-0.342	-1.000
predicted_R	0.559	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.559	1.000	0.441	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.740	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.824	1.000	0.176	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.481	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.475	1.000	-0.475	-1.000
predicted_SO	1.324	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.324	0.000	-0.324	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.147	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.588	-
predicted_AVG	0.255	-
predicted_BB	0.500	-
predicted_H	0.880	-
predicted_HR	0.240	-
predicted_OBP	0.389	-
predicted_R	0.559	-
predicted_RBI	0.740	-
predicted_SLG	0.481	-
predicted_SO	1.324	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.091	-0.056
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.500	-0.088
predicted_AVG	0.255	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.596	0.096
predicted_H	0.879	-0.001
predicted_HBP	0.152	-
predicted_HR	0.240	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.389	-0.000
predicted_R	0.582	0.023
predicted_RBI	0.743	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.481	0.000
predicted_SO	1.304	-0.020

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.59), rates preserved: AVG=0.245 HR/AB=0.067

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=26.0, BvP AVG=0.077)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	1.000	1.000
SO	1.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	7.000	0.2500	0.4286	0.4375	0.2500	0.0625	0.1875	0.2500	0.4375
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	10.000	1.000	3.000	9.000	6.000	5.000	11.000	0.2703	0.3636	0.5405	0.2703	0.0811	0.2432	0.1351	0.2973
season	0.20	34	-	122.000	29.000	5.000	8.000	28.000	19.000	17.000	45.000	0.2377	0.3425	0.4754	0.2377	0.0656	0.2295	0.1393	0.3689

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0610
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.4530
predicted_AVG	0.2546
predicted_BB	0.6480
predicted_H	0.8790
predicted_HBP	0.1520
predicted_HR	0.2400
predicted_OBP	0.3886
predicted_R	0.5950
predicted_RBI	0.7440
predicted_SLG	0.4811
predicted_SO	1.2940

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1470	0.0610	0.0911	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5880	3.4530	3.5003	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2550	0.2546	0.2547	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5000	0.6480	0.5962	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8800	0.8790	0.8794	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1520	0.1520	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2400	0.2400	0.2400	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3890	0.3886	0.3887	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5590	0.5950	0.5824	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7400	0.7440	0.7426	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4810	0.4811	0.4811	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3240	1.2940	1.3045	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	1
HBP	0
season_avg	0.238

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	1
Hitting_AVG	1.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260506_CHW@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	624585
playerID	624585
playerName	Jorge Soler
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	LAA
teamID	13

Adam Frazier (624428) · BATTER · 2B · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 15

All-history rows before 20260508: 15

System season_avg: 0.2770

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2766

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.267	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.267	0.000	-0.267	0.000
predicted_3B	0.067	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_AB	3.133	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.133	2.000	-0.133	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.222	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.277	0.000	0.057	0.333
predicted_BB	0.333	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.570	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.867	0.000	0.133	1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.236	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.346	0.000	0.154	0.500
predicted_R	0.733	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.733	0.000	0.267	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.438	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.468	0.000	-0.135	0.333
predicted_SO	0.933	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.933	1.000	-0.933	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.267	-
predicted_3B	0.067	-
predicted_AB	3.133	-
predicted_AVG	0.222	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.570	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.236	-
predicted_R	0.733	-
predicted_RBI	0.220	-
predicted_SLG	0.438	-
predicted_SO	0.933	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.375	0.108
predicted_3B	0.054	-0.013
predicted_AB	3.110	-0.023
predicted_AVG	0.222	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.160	-0.174
predicted_H	0.646	0.076
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.044	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.236	-0.000
predicted_R	0.582	-0.151
predicted_RBI	0.246	0.026
predicted_SLG	0.438	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.848	-0.085

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.13), rates preserved: AVG=0.206 HR/AB=0.014

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=19.0, BvP AVG=0.263)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	3.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	0.2000	0.2000	0.4000	0.2000	0.0000	0.0667	0.0000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	-	32.000	7.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	0.000	10.000	0.2188	0.2188	0.4688	0.2188	0.0312	0.0938	0.0000	0.3125
season	0.20	15	-	47.000	13.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	11.000	5.000	14.000	0.2766	0.3462	0.4681	0.2766	0.0213	0.1064	0.1064	0.2979

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.4330
predicted_3B	0.0470
predicted_AB	3.0970
predicted_AVG	0.2219
predicted_BB	0.0660
predicted_H	0.6870
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0470
predicted_OBP	0.2358
predicted_R	0.5000
predicted_RBI	0.2600
predicted_SLG	0.4377
predicted_SO	0.8020

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2670	0.4330	0.3749	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0670	0.0470	0.0540	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1330	3.0970	3.1096	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2220	0.2219	0.2219	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.0660	0.1595	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5700	0.6870	0.6461	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0470	0.0445	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2360	0.2358	0.2359	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7330	0.5000	0.5816	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2200	0.2600	0.2460	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4380	0.4377	0.4378	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9330	0.8020	0.8479	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.277

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260504_CHW@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	624428
playerID	624428
playerName	Adam Frazier
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	LAA
teamID	13

Zach Neto (687263) · BATTER · SS · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 38

All-history rows before 20260508: 38

System season_avg: 0.2210

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2215

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.211	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.211	0.000	-0.211	0.000
predicted_3B	0.026	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.026	1.000	-0.026	-1.000
predicted_AB	3.921	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.921	2.000	0.079	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.196	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.221	0.500	0.029	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.632	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.632	2.000	0.368	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.105	1.000	-0.105	-1.000
predicted_H	0.760	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.868	1.000	0.132	0.000
predicted_HR	0.170	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.158	0.000	0.842	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.317	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.335	0.600	0.065	-0.200
predicted_R	0.684	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.684	2.000	0.316	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.610	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.474	2.000	0.526	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.184	0.000	-0.184	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.428	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SLG	0.409	1.500	0.591	-0.500
predicted_SO	1.447	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.447	0.000	0.553	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.211	-
predicted_3B	0.026	-
predicted_AB	3.921	-
predicted_AVG	0.196	-
predicted_BB	0.632	-
predicted_H	0.760	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.317	-
predicted_R	0.684	-
predicted_RBI	0.610	-
predicted_SLG	0.428	-
predicted_SO	1.447	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-0.068
predicted_3B	0.097	0.071
predicted_AB	3.764	-0.157
predicted_AVG	0.196	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.659	0.027
predicted_H	0.733	-0.027
predicted_HBP	0.043	-
predicted_HR	0.164	-0.007
predicted_OBP	0.317	-0.000
predicted_R	0.726	0.042
predicted_RBI	0.590	-0.020
predicted_SLG	0.428	0.000
predicted_SO	1.449	0.002

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.92), rates preserved: AVG=0.187 HR/AB=0.042

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, BvP AVG=0.429)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.921

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	4.000	6.000	0.1765	0.3182	0.4706	0.1765	0.0588	0.1765	0.2353	0.3529
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	8.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	7.000	5.000	18.000	0.2051	0.3043	0.3846	0.2051	0.0256	0.1538	0.1282	0.4615
season	0.20	38	-	149.000	33.000	8.000	1.000	6.000	18.000	26.000	24.000	55.000	0.2215	0.3352	0.4094	0.2215	0.0403	0.1208	0.1611	0.3691

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1060
predicted_3B	0.1350
predicted_AB	3.6790
predicted_AVG	0.1955
predicted_BB	0.6730
predicted_H	0.7190
predicted_HBP	0.0430
predicted_HR	0.1600
predicted_OBP	0.3167
predicted_R	0.7490
predicted_RBI	0.5790
predicted_SLG	0.4283
predicted_SO	1.4500

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2110	0.1060	0.1427	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0260	0.1350	0.0969	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9210	3.6790	3.7637	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1960	0.1955	0.1957	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6320	0.6730	0.6587	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7600	0.7190	0.7333	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0430	0.0430	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.1600	0.1635	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3170	0.3167	0.3168	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6840	0.7490	0.7263	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6100	0.5790	0.5898	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4280	0.4283	0.4282	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4470	1.4500	1.4489	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.221

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	1
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	1
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260506_CHW@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	687263
playerID	687263
playerName	Zach Neto
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	LAA
teamID	13

Yoán Moncada (660162) · BATTER · 3B · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 26

All-history rows before 20260508: 26

System season_avg: 0.1590

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1591

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.038	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.038	0.000	-0.038	0.000
predicted_AB	3.385	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.385	3.000	1.615	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.110	0.200	0.200	Hitting_AVG	0.159	0.333	0.041	-0.133
predicted_BB	0.538	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.538	0.000	-0.538	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.350	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.538	1.000	0.462	0.000
predicted_HR	0.050	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.115	0.000	0.885	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.160	0.200	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.288	0.333	-0.088	-0.133
predicted_R	0.308	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.308	0.000	0.692	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.090	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	0.308	0.000	1.692	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.165	0.800	0.800	Hitting_SLG	0.284	0.333	0.516	0.467
predicted_SO	1.462	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.462	2.000	-0.462	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.038	-
predicted_AB	3.385	-
predicted_AVG	0.110	-
predicted_BB	0.538	-
predicted_H	0.350	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.160	-
predicted_R	0.308	-
predicted_RBI	0.090	-
predicted_SLG	0.165	-
predicted_SO	1.462	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.018	-0.019
predicted_AB	3.357	-0.028
predicted_AVG	0.110	0.000
predicted_BB	0.323	-0.215
predicted_H	0.361	0.011
predicted_HBP	0.015	-
predicted_HR	0.054	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.160	-0.000
predicted_R	0.169	-0.139
predicted_RBI	0.093	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.165	0.000
predicted_SO	1.553	0.091

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.38), rates preserved: AVG=0.107 HR/AB=0.016

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	2.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 26

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	9.000	0.0625	0.0625	0.0625	0.0625	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.5625
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	14.000	0.1429	0.2105	0.2286	0.1429	0.0286	0.0286	0.0857	0.4000
season	0.20	26	-	88.000	14.000	1.000	3.000	8.000	8.000	14.000	38.000	0.1591	0.2885	0.2841	0.1591	0.0341	0.0909	0.1591	0.4318

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0080
predicted_AB	3.3420
predicted_AVG	0.1100
predicted_BB	0.2070
predicted_H	0.3670
predicted_HBP	0.0150
predicted_HR	0.0560
predicted_OBP	0.1595
predicted_R	0.0940
predicted_RBI	0.0940
predicted_SLG	0.1650
predicted_SO	1.6020

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0380	0.0080	0.0185	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3850	3.3420	3.3571	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1100	0.1100	0.1100	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5380	0.2070	0.3228	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3500	0.3670	0.3610	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0150	0.0150	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0560	0.0539	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1600	0.1595	0.1597	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3080	0.0940	0.1689	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0900	0.0940	0.0926	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1650	0.1650	0.1650	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4620	1.6020	1.5530	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	26
Season rows before report date	26
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	26
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.159

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260505_CHW@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	660162
playerID	660162
playerName	Yoán Moncada
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	LAA
teamID	13

Sebastián Rivero (665861) · BATTER · C · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 3

All-history rows before 20260508: 3

System season_avg: 0.3330

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3333

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	3.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.333	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.333	0.000	-0.083	0.250
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.850	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.333	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.000	-0.083	0.250
predicted_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.333	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.333	0.000	-0.083	0.250
predicted_SO	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.333	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.850	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.333	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.000	-
predicted_SLG	0.333	-
predicted_SO	0.333	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.333	0.000
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.948	0.098
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.333	0.000
predicted_R	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.333	0.000
predicted_SO	0.333	0.000

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.316 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 3

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	3	-	9.000	3.000	1.000	0.3333	0.3333	0.3333	0.3333	0.1111
last_10	0.35	3	-	9.000	3.000	1.000	0.3333	0.3333	0.3333	0.3333	0.1111
season	0.20	3	-	9.000	3.000	1.000	0.3333	0.3333	0.3333	0.3333	0.1111

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.0000
predicted_AVG	0.3333
predicted_BB	0.0000
predicted_H	1.0000
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.3333
predicted_R	0.0000
predicted_RBI	0.0000
predicted_SLG	0.3333
predicted_SO	0.3330

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.0000	3.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3330	0.3333	0.3332	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8500	1.0000	0.9475	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3330	0.3333	0.3332	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3330	0.3333	0.3332	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3330	0.3330	0.3330	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	3
Season rows before report date	3
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	3
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.333

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260505_CHW@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	665861
playerID	665861
playerName	Sebastián Rivero
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	LAA
teamID	13

Mike Trout (545361) · BATTER · CF · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 37

All-history rows before 20260508: 37

System season_avg: 0.2600

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2595

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.135	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.135	0.000	-0.135	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.541	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.541	5.000	1.459	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.315	0.600	0.600	Hitting_AVG	0.260	0.200	0.340	0.400
predicted_BB	0.973	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.973	0.000	-0.973	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.080	3.000	3.000	Hitting_H	0.919	1.000	2.081	2.000
predicted_HR	0.240	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.297	0.000	0.703	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.450	0.600	0.600	Hitting_OBP	0.429	0.200	0.171	0.400
predicted_R	0.865	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.865	0.000	0.135	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.450	3.000	3.000	Hitting_RBI	0.622	1.000	2.378	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.135	0.000	-0.135	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.543	1.200	1.200	Hitting_SLG	0.550	0.200	0.650	1.000
predicted_SO	1.081	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.081	1.000	-0.081	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.135	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.541	-
predicted_AVG	0.315	-
predicted_BB	0.973	-
predicted_H	1.080	-
predicted_HR	0.240	-
predicted_OBP	0.450	-
predicted_R	0.865	-
predicted_RBI	0.450	-
predicted_SLG	0.543	-
predicted_SO	1.081	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.088	-0.047
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.594	0.053
predicted_AVG	0.315	0.000
predicted_BB	0.884	-0.089
predicted_H	1.121	0.041
predicted_HBP	0.051	-
predicted_HR	0.249	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.450	0.000
predicted_R	0.691	-0.174
predicted_RBI	0.469	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.543	0.000
predicted_SO	1.246	0.165

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.59), rates preserved: AVG=0.312 HR/AB=0.069

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=12.0, BvP AVG=0.167)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	3.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	6.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	7.000	0.3333	0.4545	0.5000	0.3333	0.0556	0.1111	0.2222	0.3889
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	12.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	7.000	8.000	14.000	0.3243	0.4565	0.5946	0.3243	0.0811	0.1351	0.2162	0.3784
season	0.20	37	-	131.000	34.000	5.000	11.000	23.000	32.000	36.000	40.000	0.2595	0.4294	0.5496	0.2595	0.0840	0.1756	0.2748	0.3053

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0620
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.6230
predicted_AVG	0.3154
predicted_BB	0.8360
predicted_H	1.1430
predicted_HBP	0.0510
predicted_HR	0.2540
predicted_OBP	0.4502
predicted_R	0.5980
predicted_RBI	0.4800
predicted_SLG	0.5430
predicted_SO	1.3350

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1350	0.0620	0.0876	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5410	3.6230	3.5943	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3150	0.3154	0.3153	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.9730	0.8360	0.8840	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0800	1.1430	1.1210	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0510	0.0510	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2400	0.2540	0.2491	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4500	0.4502	0.4501	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8650	0.5980	0.6914	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4500	0.4800	0.4695	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5430	0.5430	0.5430	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0810	1.3350	1.2461	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	3
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	3
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.26

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260506_CHW@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	545361
playerID	545361
playerName	Mike Trout
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	LAA
teamID	13

Nolan Schanuel (694384) · BATTER · 1B · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 34

All-history rows before 20260508: 34

System season_avg: 0.2570

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2574

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.265	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.265	0.000	0.735	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	4.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.315	0.400	0.400	Hitting_AVG	0.257	0.250	0.143	0.150
predicted_BB	0.294	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.294	0.000	-0.294	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_H	1.220	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	1.029	1.000	0.971	1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.088	0.000	-0.088	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.331	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.309	0.250	0.091	0.150
predicted_R	0.382	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.382	2.000	0.618	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.588	0.000	-0.588	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.450	0.600	0.600	Hitting_SLG	0.390	0.250	0.210	0.350
predicted_SO	0.647	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.647	0.000	0.353	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.265	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.315	-
predicted_BB	0.294	-
predicted_H	1.220	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.331	-
predicted_R	0.382	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.450	-
predicted_SO	0.647	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.415	0.150
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.059	0.059
predicted_AVG	0.315	0.000
predicted_BB	0.142	-0.152
predicted_H	1.265	0.045
predicted_HBP	0.042	-
predicted_HR	0.019	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.331	0.000
predicted_R	0.472	0.090
predicted_RBI	0.277	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.450	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.623	-0.024

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.06), rates preserved: AVG=0.312 HR/AB=0.005

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, BvP AVG=0.500)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	7.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	0.000	3.000	0.3333	0.3333	0.4762	0.3333	0.0000	0.0476	0.0000	0.1429
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	13.000	5.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	0.000	6.000	0.3250	0.3415	0.4500	0.3250	0.0000	0.0500	0.0000	0.1500
season	0.20	34	-	136.000	35.000	9.000	3.000	20.000	13.000	10.000	22.000	0.2574	0.3087	0.3897	0.2574	0.0221	0.1471	0.0735	0.1618

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.4960
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.0900
predicted_AVG	0.3152
predicted_BB	0.0600
predicted_H	1.2890
predicted_HBP	0.0420
predicted_HR	0.0180
predicted_OBP	0.3313
predicted_R	0.5200
predicted_RBI	0.2800
predicted_SLG	0.4497
predicted_SO	0.6100

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2650	0.4960	0.4152	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0000	4.0900	4.0585	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3150	0.3152	0.3151	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2940	0.0600	0.1419	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2200	1.2890	1.2649	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0420	0.0420	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0180	0.0187	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3310	0.3313	0.3312	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3820	0.5200	0.4717	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.2800	0.2765	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4500	0.4497	0.4498	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6470	0.6100	0.6230	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.257

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260506_CHW@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	694384
playerID	694384
playerName	Nolan Schanuel
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	LAA
teamID	13

Jo Adell (666176) · BATTER · RF · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 38

All-history rows before 20260508: 38

System season_avg: 0.2580

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2583

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.053	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.974	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.974	3.000	0.026	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.260	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.258	0.000	-0.008	0.250
predicted_BB	0.105	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.105	0.000	-0.105	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.930	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.026	0.000	-0.026	1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.105	0.000	-0.105	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.298	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.298	0.250	-0.048	0.000
predicted_R	0.368	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.368	0.000	-0.368	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.553	1.000	-0.553	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.278	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.351	0.000	-0.101	0.250
predicted_SO	0.947	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.947	3.000	-0.947	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.053	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.974	-
predicted_AVG	0.260	-
predicted_BB	0.105	-
predicted_H	0.930	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.298	-
predicted_R	0.368	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.278	-
predicted_SO	0.947	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.025	-0.028
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.825	-0.149
predicted_AVG	0.260	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.072	-0.033
predicted_H	0.957	0.027
predicted_HBP	0.153	-
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.298	0.000
predicted_R	0.258	-0.110
predicted_RBI	0.422	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.278	0.000
predicted_SO	1.021	0.074

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.97), rates preserved: AVG=0.241 HR/AB=0.005

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.974

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	5.000	0.2778	0.3158	0.2778	0.2778	0.0000	0.1111	0.0000	0.2778
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	9.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	12.000	0.2368	0.2750	0.2368	0.2368	0.0000	0.1053	0.0263	0.3158
season	0.20	38	-	151.000	39.000	2.000	4.000	21.000	14.000	4.000	36.000	0.2583	0.2981	0.3510	0.2583	0.0265	0.1391	0.0265	0.2384

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0100
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7450
predicted_AVG	0.2596
predicted_BB	0.0540
predicted_H	0.9720
predicted_HBP	0.1530
predicted_HR	0.0200
predicted_OBP	0.2980
predicted_R	0.1980
predicted_RBI	0.4290
predicted_SLG	0.2781
predicted_SO	1.0610

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0530	0.0100	0.0250	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9740	3.7450	3.8251	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2600	0.2596	0.2597	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1050	0.0540	0.0718	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9300	0.9720	0.9573	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1530	0.1530	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0200	0.0200	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2980	0.2980	0.2980	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3680	0.1980	0.2575	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.4290	0.4224	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2780	0.2781	0.2781	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9470	1.0610	1.0211	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.258

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260506_CHW@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	666176
playerID	666176
playerName	Jo Adell
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	LAA
teamID	13

Josh Lowe (666139) · BATTER · LF · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 27

All-history rows before 20260508: 27

System season_avg: 0.1540

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1538

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.037	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.037	0.000	0.963	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.370	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.370	3.000	0.630	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.081	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.154	0.000	0.346	0.500
predicted_BB	0.185	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.185	0.000	-0.185	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.240	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.519	0.000	1.481	2.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.148	0.000	-0.148	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.091	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.204	0.000	0.296	0.500
predicted_R	0.259	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.259	0.000	0.741	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.370	0.000	-0.370	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.037	0.000	-0.037	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.139	0.750	0.750	Hitting_SLG	0.297	0.000	0.453	0.750
predicted_SO	1.037	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.037	1.000	-0.037	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.037	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.370	-
predicted_AVG	0.081	-
predicted_BB	0.185	-
predicted_H	0.240	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.091	-
predicted_R	0.259	-
predicted_RBI	0.100	-
predicted_SLG	0.139	-
predicted_SO	1.037	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.018	-0.019
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.408	0.038
predicted_AVG	0.081	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.089	-0.096
predicted_H	0.264	0.024
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.063	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.091	-0.000
predicted_R	0.169	-0.090
predicted_RBI	0.106	0.006
predicted_SLG	0.139	0.000
predicted_SO	0.973	-0.064

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.41), rates preserved: AVG=0.077 HR/AB=0.018

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	5.000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.2941
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	0.000	8.000	0.1429	0.1429	0.2286	0.1429	0.0286	0.0286	0.0000	0.2286
season	0.20	27	-	91.000	14.000	1.000	4.000	10.000	7.000	5.000	28.000	0.1538	0.2041	0.2967	0.1538	0.0440	0.1099	0.0549	0.3077

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0080
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.4290
predicted_AVG	0.0808
predicted_BB	0.0380
predicted_H	0.2770
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.0640
predicted_OBP	0.0908
predicted_R	0.1210
predicted_RBI	0.1100
predicted_SLG	0.1394
predicted_SO	0.9390

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0370	0.0080	0.0181	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3700	3.4290	3.4083	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.0810	0.0808	0.0809	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1850	0.0380	0.0895	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.2400	0.2770	0.2641	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0640	0.0626	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.0910	0.0908	0.0909	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2590	0.1210	0.1693	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1000	0.1100	0.1065	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1390	0.1394	0.1393	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0370	0.9390	0.9733	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.154

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260505_CHW@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	666139
playerID	666139
playerName	Josh Lowe
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	LAA
teamID	13

Reid Detmers (672282) · PITCHER · Starter · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 7

All-history rows before 20260508: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_ER	2.714	3.000	0.286	0.000
predicted_IP	3.200	3.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.514	6.100	-2.314	-2.900
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	-	Pitching_SO	6.286	8.000	-1.286	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 3.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	28.200	16.000	28.000	5.000	31.000	3.000	5.0233	1.1512	0.5581	0.9767	0.1744	1.0814	0.1047
last_10	0.35	7	40.000	19.000	37.000	9.000	44.000	3.000	4.2750	1.1500	0.4750	0.9250	0.2250	1.1000	0.0750
season	0.20	7	40.000	19.000	37.000	9.000	44.000	3.000	4.2750	1.1500	0.4750	0.9250	0.2250	1.1000	0.0750

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.1460
predicted_ER	2.9040
predicted_ERA	4.6117
predicted_H	5.3740
predicted_HR	0.5010
predicted_IP	5.2000
predicted_SO	6.1860
predicted_WHIP	1.1505

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	1.1460	1.0949	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	2.9040	2.9376	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.6117	4.6117	form_only
predicted_H	7.0000	5.3740	5.9431	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.5010	0.6756	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	3.2000	5.2000	5.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	6.1860	5.7709	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1505	1.1505	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	3.2
H	7
R	3
ER	3
BB	1
SO	5
HR	1
BF	23
Pitches	90

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	27
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	4.28
Pitching_Flyouts	5
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	9
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.1
Pitching_Pitches	95
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	8
Pitching_Strikes	68
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260502_NYM@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	672282
playerID	672282
playerName	Reid Detmers
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	LAA
teamID	13

Ryan Zeferjahn (666171) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 13

All-history rows before 20260508: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.769	0.000	-0.769	0.000
predicted_IP	2.100	2.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.369	1.100	0.731	1.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.923	3.000	-1.923	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 2.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	8.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	11.000	1.1250	0.6250	0.1250	0.1250	0.5000	1.3750
last_10	0.35	10	15.000	8.000	10.000	9.000	17.000	4.8000	1.2667	0.5333	0.6667	0.6000	1.1333
season	0.20	13	19.200	10.000	11.000	11.000	25.000	4.5763	1.1186	0.5085	0.5593	0.5593	1.2712

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.8480
predicted_ER	0.5340
predicted_ERA	3.1015
predicted_H	0.6220
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.2000
predicted_SO	1.9680
predicted_WHIP	0.9483

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.8480	0.9012	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5340	0.3471	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.1015	3.1015	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6220	0.4043	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	2.1000	1.2000	2.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.9680	1.2792	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9483	0.9483	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.58
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	33
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	16
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_CHW@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	666171
playerID	666171
playerName	Ryan Zeferjahn
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAA
teamID	13

Brent Suter (608718) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 14

All-history rows before 20260508: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.714	1.000	-0.714	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.407	0.200	-0.407	0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.429	0.000	-0.429	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	6.000	7.000	3.000	3.000	1.000	12.4615	2.3077	1.3846	1.6154	0.6923	0.6923	0.2308
last_10	0.35	10	14.000	7.000	13.000	7.000	11.000	2.000	4.5000	1.4286	0.5000	0.9286	0.5000	0.7857	0.1429
season	0.20	14	21.100	10.000	20.000	10.000	20.000	3.000	4.2188	1.4062	0.4688	0.9375	0.4688	0.9375	0.1406

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.7250
predicted_ER	1.1150
predicted_ERA	8.0264
predicted_H	1.5490
predicted_HR	0.2270
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	0.9680
predicted_WHIP	1.8197

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.7250	0.4713	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	1.1150	0.7248	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	8.0264	8.0264	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.5490	1.0069	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2270	0.1476	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.1000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9680	0.9792	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.8197	1.8197	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	4.22
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	20
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_CHW@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	608718
playerID	608718
playerName	Brent Suter
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAA
teamID	13

Chase Silseth (681217) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 17

All-history rows before 20260508: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.235	0.000	-0.235	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.606	2.000	0.394	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.824	4.000	-0.824	-4.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	2.000	6.000	4.000	4.000	0.000	3.8571	2.1429	0.4286	1.2857	0.8571	0.8571	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.100	3.000	8.000	8.000	8.000	0.000	3.2400	1.9200	0.3600	0.9600	0.9600	0.9600	0.0000
season	0.20	17	13.100	4.000	12.000	10.000	14.000	1.000	2.7000	1.6500	0.3000	0.9000	0.7500	1.0500	0.0750

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.7120
predicted_ER	0.3090
predicted_ERA	3.4097
predicted_H	0.8940
predicted_HR	0.0120
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.7610
predicted_WHIP	1.9663

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.7120	0.4628	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3090	0.2009	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.4097	3.4097	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8940	0.5811	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0120	0.0078	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.7610	0.4947	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.9663	1.9663	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	12

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.70
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	28
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	4
Pitching_Strikes	17
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_CHW@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	681217
playerID	681217
playerName	Chase Silseth
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAA
teamID	13

Sam Bachman (696147) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 13

All-history rows before 20260508: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.538	1.000	-0.538	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.238	1.200	-0.238	-0.200
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.615	3.000	-0.615	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.100	3.000	4.000	2.000	7.000	2.000	4.2632	0.9474	0.4737	0.6316	0.3158	1.1053	0.3158
last_10	0.35	10	15.000	7.000	10.000	6.000	16.000	2.000	4.2000	1.0667	0.4667	0.6667	0.4000	1.0667	0.1333
season	0.20	13	18.200	7.000	11.000	10.000	21.000	2.000	3.3750	1.1250	0.3750	0.5893	0.5357	1.1250	0.1071

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5190
predicted_ER	0.6020
predicted_ERA	4.0634
predicted_H	0.8470
predicted_HR	0.2800
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.4610
predicted_WHIP	1.0247

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.5190	0.6874	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.6020	0.3913	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.0634	4.0634	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.8470	0.9005	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2800	0.1820	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.1000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.4610	1.2997	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0247	1.0247	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	3.38
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.2
Pitching_Pitches	20
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	15
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_CHW@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	696147
playerID	696147
playerName	Sam Bachman
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAA
teamID	13

Home Team: TOR

Ernie Clement (676391) · BATTER · 2B · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 36

All-history rows before 20260508: 36

System season_avg: 0.2810

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2808

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.361	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.361	0.000	-0.361	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.056	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.056	4.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.179	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.281	0.000	-0.031	0.250
predicted_BB	0.139	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.139	0.000	-0.139	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.660	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.139	0.000	-0.139	1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.230	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.305	0.000	-0.055	0.250
predicted_R	0.306	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.306	0.000	-0.306	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.238	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.390	0.000	-0.140	0.250
predicted_SO	0.278	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.278	0.000	-0.278	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.361	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.056	-
predicted_AVG	0.179	-
predicted_BB	0.139	-
predicted_H	0.660	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.230	-
predicted_R	0.306	-
predicted_RBI	0.110	-
predicted_SLG	0.238	-
predicted_SO	0.278	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.195	-0.166
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.981	-0.075
predicted_AVG	0.179	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.218	0.079
predicted_H	0.689	0.029
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.041	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.230	0.000
predicted_R	0.274	-0.032
predicted_RBI	0.117	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.238	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.237	-0.041

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.06), rates preserved: AVG=0.170 HR/AB=0.010

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, BvP AVG=0.222)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 4.056

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	0.1500	0.1905	0.1500	0.1500	0.0000	0.0000	0.0500	0.0500
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	2.000	0.1579	0.2381	0.2632	0.1579	0.0263	0.0526	0.1053	0.0526
season	0.20	36	-	146.000	41.000	13.000	1.000	9.000	11.000	5.000	10.000	0.2808	0.3046	0.3904	0.2808	0.0069	0.0616	0.0343	0.0685

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1060
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.9410
predicted_AVG	0.1789
predicted_BB	0.2610
predicted_H	0.7050
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0420
predicted_OBP	0.2300
predicted_R	0.2570
predicted_RBI	0.1210
predicted_SLG	0.2377
predicted_SO	0.2150

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3610	0.1060	0.1952	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0560	3.9410	3.9812	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1790	0.1789	0.1789	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1390	0.2610	0.2183	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6600	0.7050	0.6892	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0420	0.0413	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2300	0.2300	0.2300	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3060	0.2570	0.2742	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1100	0.1210	0.1172	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2380	0.2377	0.2378	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.2780	0.2150	0.2371	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.281

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS-2B
gameID	20260506_TOR@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	676391
playerID	676391
playerName	Ernie Clement
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	TOR
teamID	29

Davis Schneider (676914) · BATTER · LF · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 15

All-history rows before 20260508: 15

System season_avg: 0.1220

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1220

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.133	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.133	0.000	0.867	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.733	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.733	2.000	0.267	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.079	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.122	0.000	0.211	0.333
predicted_BB	0.667	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.667	0.000	0.333	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.190	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.294	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.294	0.000	0.206	0.500
predicted_R	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.330	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.143	0.667	0.667	Hitting_SLG	0.171	0.000	0.496	0.667
predicted_SO	1.133	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.133	1.000	-0.133	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.133	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.733	-
predicted_AVG	0.079	-
predicted_BB	0.667	-
predicted_H	0.190	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.294	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.330	-
predicted_SLG	0.143	-
predicted_SO	1.133	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.149	0.016
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.547	-0.186
predicted_AVG	0.079	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.721	0.054
predicted_H	0.192	0.002
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.294	-0.000
predicted_R	0.264	-0.070
predicted_RBI	0.327	-0.003
predicted_SLG	0.143	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.111	-0.022

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.73), rates preserved: AVG=0.070 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	11.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	5.000	0.0909	0.3333	0.1818	0.0909	0.1818	0.3636	0.4546
last_10	0.35	10	-	26.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	12.000	0.0385	0.2424	0.0769	0.0385	0.0769	0.2692	0.4615
season	0.20	15	-	41.000	5.000	2.000	5.000	5.000	10.000	17.000	0.1220	0.2941	0.1707	0.1220	0.1220	0.2439	0.4146

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1570
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.4470
predicted_AVG	0.0788
predicted_BB	0.7500
predicted_H	0.1930
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.2936
predicted_R	0.2260
predicted_RBI	0.3260
predicted_SLG	0.1429
predicted_SO	1.0990

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1330	0.1570	0.1486	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.7330	2.4470	2.5471	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.0790	0.0788	0.0789	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6670	0.7500	0.7209	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.1900	0.1930	0.1920	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2940	0.2936	0.2937	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.2260	0.2635	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3300	0.3260	0.3274	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1430	0.1429	0.1429	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1330	1.0990	1.1109	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.122

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260506_TOR@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	676914
playerID	676914
playerName	Davis Schneider
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	TOR
teamID	29

Brandon Valenzuela (678218) · BATTER · C · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 15

All-history rows before 20260508: 15

System season_avg: 0.2130

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2128

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.133	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.133	2.000	0.867	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.272	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.213	0.000	-0.213	0.000
predicted_BB	0.267	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.267	1.000	-0.267	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.700	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_HR	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.358	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.275	0.333	-0.275	-0.333
predicted_R	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.490	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.558	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.404	0.000	-0.404	0.000
predicted_SO	1.133	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.133	1.000	0.867	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.133	-
predicted_AVG	0.272	-
predicted_BB	0.267	-
predicted_H	0.700	-
predicted_HR	0.250	-
predicted_OBP	0.358	-
predicted_R	0.400	-
predicted_RBI	0.490	-
predicted_SLG	0.558	-
predicted_SO	1.133	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.087	-0.046
predicted_AVG	0.272	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.374	0.107
predicted_H	0.786	0.086
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.277	0.027
predicted_OBP	0.358	-0.000
predicted_R	0.520	0.120
predicted_RBI	0.551	0.061
predicted_SLG	0.558	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.922	-0.211

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.13), rates preserved: AVG=0.251 HR/AB=0.089

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	5.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	3.000	3.000	0.3333	0.4444	0.7333	0.3333	0.1333	0.2667	0.2000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	-	31.000	7.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	3.000	9.000	0.2258	0.2941	0.4194	0.2258	0.0645	0.1290	0.0968	0.2903
season	0.20	15	-	47.000	10.000	3.000	6.000	6.000	4.000	17.000	0.2128	0.2745	0.4043	0.2128	0.0638	0.1277	0.0851	0.3617

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.0620
predicted_AVG	0.2716
predicted_BB	0.4310
predicted_H	0.8320
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.2920
predicted_OBP	0.3578
predicted_R	0.5840
predicted_RBI	0.5840
predicted_SLG	0.5576
predicted_SO	0.8080

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1330	3.0620	3.0869	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2720	0.2716	0.2717	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2670	0.4310	0.3736	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7000	0.8320	0.7858	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2500	0.2920	0.2773	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3580	0.3578	0.3579	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4000	0.5840	0.5196	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4900	0.5840	0.5511	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5580	0.5576	0.5577	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1330	0.8080	0.9217	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.213

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260505_TOR@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	678218
playerID	678218
playerName	Brandon Valenzuela
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	TOR
teamID	29

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (665489) · BATTER · 1B · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 36

All-history rows before 20260508: 36

System season_avg: 0.3210

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3209

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.194	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.194	0.000	-0.194	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.722	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.722	4.000	0.278	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.239	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.321	0.000	0.179	0.500
predicted_BB	0.472	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.472	0.000	-0.472	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.870	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	1.194	0.000	0.806	2.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.312	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.405	0.000	0.095	0.500
predicted_R	0.583	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.583	0.000	0.417	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.260	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.444	0.000	-0.444	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.277	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.418	0.000	0.082	0.500
predicted_SO	0.528	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.528	1.000	-0.528	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.194	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.722	-
predicted_AVG	0.239	-
predicted_BB	0.472	-
predicted_H	0.870	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.312	-
predicted_R	0.583	-
predicted_RBI	0.260	-
predicted_SLG	0.277	-
predicted_SO	0.528	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.142	-0.052
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.879	0.157
predicted_AVG	0.239	0.000
predicted_BB	0.412	-0.060
predicted_H	0.920	0.050
predicted_HBP	0.048	-
predicted_HR	0.011	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.312	0.000
predicted_R	0.617	0.034
predicted_RBI	0.279	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.277	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.621	0.093

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.88), rates preserved: AVG=0.237 HR/AB=0.003

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, BvP AVG=0.400)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	4.000	0.1429	0.2174	0.1429	0.1429	0.0000	0.0476	0.0952	0.1905
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	12.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	7.000	3.000	6.000	0.3158	0.3810	0.3684	0.3158	0.0000	0.0790	0.0790	0.1579
season	0.20	36	-	134.000	43.000	7.000	2.000	16.000	21.000	17.000	19.000	0.3209	0.4052	0.4179	0.3209	0.0149	0.1194	0.1269	0.1418

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1140
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.9640
predicted_AVG	0.2390
predicted_BB	0.3800
predicted_H	0.9470
predicted_HBP	0.0480
predicted_HR	0.0120
predicted_OBP	0.3122
predicted_R	0.6350
predicted_RBI	0.2890
predicted_SLG	0.2768
predicted_SO	0.6710

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1940	0.1140	0.1420	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7220	3.9640	3.8793	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2390	0.2390	0.2390	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4720	0.3800	0.4122	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8700	0.9470	0.9201	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0480	0.0480	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0120	0.0113	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3120	0.3122	0.3121	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5830	0.6350	0.6168	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2600	0.2890	0.2788	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2770	0.2768	0.2769	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5280	0.6710	0.6210	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.321

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260506_TOR@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	665489
playerID	665489
playerName	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	TOR
teamID	29

Kazuma Okamoto (672960) · BATTER · 3B · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 36

All-history rows before 20260508: 36

System season_avg: 0.2460

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2463

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.083	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.083	1.000	-0.083	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.722	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.722	3.000	0.278	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.308	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.246	0.333	0.004	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.472	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.472	1.000	-0.472	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.100	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.917	1.000	0.083	0.000
predicted_HR	0.460	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.278	0.000	0.722	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.392	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.331	0.500	-0.081	-0.250
predicted_R	0.528	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.528	0.000	0.472	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.920	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	0.639	0.000	1.361	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.730	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SLG	0.493	0.667	0.507	0.333
predicted_SO	1.222	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.222	0.000	-0.222	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.083	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.722	-
predicted_AVG	0.308	-
predicted_BB	0.472	-
predicted_H	1.100	-
predicted_HR	0.460	-
predicted_OBP	0.392	-
predicted_R	0.528	-
predicted_RBI	0.920	-
predicted_SLG	0.730	-
predicted_SO	1.222	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.120	0.037
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.821	0.099
predicted_AVG	0.308	0.000
predicted_BB	0.515	0.043
predicted_H	1.161	0.061
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.485	0.025
predicted_OBP	0.392	0.000
predicted_R	0.645	0.117
predicted_RBI	0.970	0.050
predicted_SLG	0.730	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.142	-0.080

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.82), rates preserved: AVG=0.304 HR/AB=0.127

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	7.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	4.000	3.000	6.000	0.3500	0.4348	0.8500	0.3500	0.1500	0.2500	0.1500	0.3000
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	11.000	1.000	5.000	12.000	7.000	5.000	9.000	0.2895	0.3721	0.7105	0.2895	0.1316	0.3158	0.1316	0.2368
season	0.20	36	-	134.000	33.000	3.000	10.000	23.000	19.000	17.000	44.000	0.2463	0.3311	0.4925	0.2463	0.0746	0.1716	0.1269	0.3284

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1400
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.8740
predicted_AVG	0.3081
predicted_BB	0.5380
predicted_H	1.1940
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.4980
predicted_OBP	0.3921
predicted_R	0.7080
predicted_RBI	0.9970
predicted_SLG	0.7297
predicted_SO	1.0990

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0830	0.1400	0.1201	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7220	3.8740	3.8208	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3080	0.3081	0.3081	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4720	0.5380	0.5149	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1000	1.1940	1.1611	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.4600	0.4980	0.4847	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3920	0.3921	0.3921	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5280	0.7080	0.6450	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.9200	0.9970	0.9701	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.7300	0.7297	0.7298	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2220	1.0990	1.1421	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.246

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260506_TOR@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	672960
playerID	672960
playerName	Kazuma Okamoto
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	TOR
teamID	29

George Springer (543807) · BATTER · DH · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 19

All-history rows before 20260508: 19

System season_avg: 0.1810

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1806

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.211	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.211	0.000	-0.211	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.789	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.789	4.000	1.211	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.183	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.181	0.000	-0.181	0.000
predicted_BB	0.474	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.474	0.000	-0.474	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_H	0.690	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.684	0.000	-0.684	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.105	0.000	-0.105	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.276	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.280	0.000	-0.280	0.000
predicted_R	0.211	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.211	0.000	-0.211	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.316	0.000	-0.316	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.242	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.319	0.000	-0.319	0.000
predicted_SO	0.842	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.842	1.000	1.158	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.211	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.789	-
predicted_AVG	0.183	-
predicted_BB	0.474	-
predicted_H	0.690	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.276	-
predicted_R	0.211	-
predicted_RBI	0.180	-
predicted_SLG	0.242	-
predicted_SO	0.842	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.171	-0.040
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.645	-0.144
predicted_AVG	0.183	0.000
predicted_BB	0.377	-0.097
predicted_H	0.667	-0.023
predicted_HBP	0.136	-
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.276	0.000
predicted_R	0.147	-0.064
predicted_RBI	0.173	-0.007
predicted_SLG	0.242	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.585	-0.257

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.176 HR/AB=0.005

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	0.1667	0.2500	0.1667	0.1667	0.0000	0.0000	0.0556	0.1111
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	7.000	3.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	0.2059	0.3077	0.2941	0.2059	0.0000	0.0882	0.1177	0.0882
season	0.20	19	-	72.000	13.000	4.000	2.000	6.000	4.000	9.000	16.000	0.1806	0.2805	0.3194	0.1806	0.0278	0.0833	0.1250	0.2222

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1500
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.5680
predicted_AVG	0.1832
predicted_BB	0.3250
predicted_H	0.6540
predicted_HBP	0.1360
predicted_HR	0.0200
predicted_OBP	0.2763
predicted_R	0.1130
predicted_RBI	0.1700
predicted_SLG	0.2418
predicted_SO	0.4470

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2110	0.1500	0.1714	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7890	3.5680	3.6453	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1830	0.1832	0.1831	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4740	0.3250	0.3771	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6900	0.6540	0.6666	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1360	0.1360	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0200	0.0200	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2760	0.2763	0.2762	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2110	0.1130	0.1473	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1800	0.1700	0.1735	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2420	0.2418	0.2419	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8420	0.4470	0.5853	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.181

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260506_TOR@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	543807
playerID	543807
playerName	George Springer
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	TOR
teamID	29

Daulton Varsho (662139) · BATTER · CF · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 31

All-history rows before 20260508: 31

System season_avg: 0.2330

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2328

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.194	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.194	0.000	0.806	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.742	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.742	3.000	0.258	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.225	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.233	0.333	0.017	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.355	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.355	1.000	-0.355	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.800	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.871	1.000	0.129	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.129	0.000	-0.129	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.310	0.500	-0.060	-0.250
predicted_R	0.484	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.484	1.000	-0.484	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.290	0.000	-0.290	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.065	0.000	-0.065	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.349	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.388	0.333	0.112	0.167
predicted_SO	0.710	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.710	0.000	0.290	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.194	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.742	-
predicted_AVG	0.225	-
predicted_BB	0.355	-
predicted_H	0.800	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.484	-
predicted_RBI	0.200	-
predicted_SLG	0.349	-
predicted_SO	0.710	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.253	0.059
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.808	0.066
predicted_AVG	0.225	0.000
predicted_BB	0.378	0.023
predicted_H	0.843	0.043
predicted_HBP	0.050	-
predicted_HR	0.062	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000
predicted_R	0.568	0.084
predicted_RBI	0.212	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.349	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.724	0.014

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.81), rates preserved: AVG=0.221 HR/AB=0.016

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	0.2500	0.3182	0.3500	0.2500	0.0000	0.0500	0.1000	0.1500
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	4.000	9.000	0.1892	0.2857	0.3243	0.1892	0.0270	0.0541	0.1081	0.2432
season	0.20	31	-	116.000	27.000	6.000	4.000	9.000	15.000	11.000	22.000	0.2328	0.3101	0.3879	0.2328	0.0345	0.0776	0.0948	0.1897

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2850
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.8430
predicted_AVG	0.2253
predicted_BB	0.3910
predicted_H	0.8660
predicted_HBP	0.0500
predicted_HR	0.0630
predicted_OBP	0.3052
predicted_R	0.6130
predicted_RBI	0.2190
predicted_SLG	0.3486
predicted_SO	0.7320

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1940	0.2850	0.2531	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7420	3.8430	3.8076	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2250	0.2253	0.2252	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3550	0.3910	0.3784	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8000	0.8660	0.8429	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0500	0.0500	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0630	0.0619	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3052	0.3051	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4840	0.6130	0.5678	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2000	0.2190	0.2123	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3490	0.3486	0.3487	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7100	0.7320	0.7243	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.233

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	1
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260505_TOR@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	662139
playerID	662139
playerName	Daulton Varsho
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	TOR
teamID	29

Andrés Giménez (665926) · BATTER · SS · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 32

All-history rows before 20260508: 32

System season_avg: 0.2690

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2689

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.188	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.188	0.000	-0.188	0.000
predicted_3B	0.031	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.031	0.000	-0.031	0.000
predicted_AB	3.719	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.719	4.000	-0.719	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.250	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.269	0.500	0.064	-0.167
predicted_BB	0.125	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.125	0.000	0.875	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.790	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	2.000	0.000	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.094	0.000	-0.094	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.279	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.296	0.500	0.204	0.000
predicted_R	0.312	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.312	1.000	0.688	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.310	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.531	1.000	0.469	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.156	1.000	-0.156	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.306	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.412	0.500	-0.078	-0.167
predicted_SO	0.594	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.594	1.000	-0.594	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.188	-
predicted_3B	0.031	-
predicted_AB	3.719	-
predicted_AVG	0.250	-
predicted_BB	0.125	-
predicted_H	0.790	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.279	-
predicted_R	0.312	-
predicted_RBI	0.310	-
predicted_SLG	0.306	-
predicted_SO	0.594	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.159	-0.029
predicted_3B	0.015	-0.016
predicted_AB	3.761	0.042
predicted_AVG	0.250	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.060	-0.065
predicted_H	0.891	0.101
predicted_HBP	0.131	-
predicted_HR	0.019	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.279	0.000
predicted_R	0.277	-0.035
predicted_RBI	0.350	0.040
predicted_SLG	0.306	0.000
predicted_SO	0.539	-0.055

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.76), rates preserved: AVG=0.237 HR/AB=0.005

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	0.2105	0.2500	0.2105	0.2105	0.0000	0.0526	0.0000	0.1053
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	11.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	5.000	3.000	0.000	6.000	0.2895	0.3077	0.3684	0.2895	0.0000	0.1316	0.0000	0.1579
season	0.20	32	-	119.000	32.000	6.000	1.000	3.000	17.000	10.000	4.000	19.000	0.2689	0.2960	0.4118	0.2689	0.0252	0.1429	0.0336	0.1597

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1430
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.7840
predicted_AVG	0.2498
predicted_BB	0.0250
predicted_H	0.9450
predicted_HBP	0.1310
predicted_HR	0.0190
predicted_OBP	0.2794
predicted_R	0.2580
predicted_RBI	0.3720
predicted_SLG	0.3060
predicted_SO	0.5090

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1880	0.1430	0.1588	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0310	0.0060	0.0147	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7190	3.7840	3.7612	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2500	0.2498	0.2499	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1250	0.0250	0.0600	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7900	0.9450	0.8907	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1310	0.1310	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0190	0.0193	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2790	0.2794	0.2793	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3120	0.2580	0.2769	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3100	0.3720	0.3503	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3060	0.3060	0.3060	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5940	0.5090	0.5388	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.269

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260505_TOR@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	665926
playerID	665926
playerName	Andrés Giménez
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	TOR
teamID	29

Myles Straw (664702) · BATTER · RF · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 14

All-history rows before 20260508: 14

System season_avg: 0.3170

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3171

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	1.000	0.857	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.929	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	2.929	3.000	1.071	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.326	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.317	0.667	-0.067	-0.417
predicted_BB	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.930	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.929	2.000	0.071	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.433	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.408	0.667	-0.008	-0.267
predicted_R	0.714	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.714	0.000	-0.714	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.214	0.000	-0.214	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.535	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.439	1.000	0.061	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.357	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.357	1.000	-0.357	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.929	-
predicted_AVG	0.326	-
predicted_BB	0.500	-
predicted_H	0.930	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.433	-
predicted_R	0.714	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.535	-
predicted_SO	0.357	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.173	0.030
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.930	0.001
predicted_AVG	0.326	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.614	0.114
predicted_H	0.946	0.016
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.141	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.433	0.000
predicted_R	0.677	-0.037
predicted_RBI	0.420	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.535	0.000
predicted_SO	0.380	0.023

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.93), rates preserved: AVG=0.323 HR/AB=0.048

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=12.0, BvP AVG=0.333)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	2.000	0.3571	0.4737	0.6429	0.3571	0.0714	0.2143	0.2857	0.1429
last_10	0.35	10	-	31.000	9.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	7.000	6.000	4.000	0.2903	0.3947	0.4516	0.2903	0.0323	0.0968	0.1935	0.1290
season	0.20	14	-	41.000	13.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	10.000	7.000	5.000	0.3171	0.4082	0.4390	0.3171	0.0244	0.0732	0.1707	0.1220

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1890
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.9310
predicted_AVG	0.3257
predicted_BB	0.6750
predicted_H	0.9550
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1420
predicted_OBP	0.4330
predicted_R	0.6570
predicted_RBI	0.4250
predicted_SLG	0.5352
predicted_SO	0.3920

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.1890	0.1729	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.9290	2.9310	2.9303	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3260	0.3257	0.3258	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5000	0.6750	0.6138	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9300	0.9550	0.9463	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1420	0.1413	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4330	0.4330	0.4330	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7140	0.6570	0.6770	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.4250	0.4197	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5350	0.5352	0.5351	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3570	0.3920	0.3798	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.317

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF-RF
gameID	20260506_TOR@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	664702
playerID	664702
playerName	Myles Straw
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	TOR
teamID	29

Dylan Cease (656302) · PITCHER · Starter · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 7

All-history rows before 20260508: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	4.000	4.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.857	3.000	2.143	1.000
predicted_IP	2.200	2.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.343	7.000	-3.143	-4.800
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_SO	8.000	7.000	-5.000	-4.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 2.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	28.200	10.000	25.000	13.000	38.000	1.000	3.1395	1.3256	0.3488	0.8721	0.4535	1.3256	0.0349
last_10	0.35	7	38.100	13.000	33.000	18.000	56.000	1.000	3.0522	1.3304	0.3391	0.8609	0.4696	1.4609	0.0261
season	0.20	7	38.100	13.000	33.000	18.000	56.000	1.000	3.0522	1.3304	0.3391	0.8609	0.4696	1.4609	0.0261

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.5350
predicted_ER	1.8840
predicted_ERA	3.0915
predicted_H	4.7480
predicted_HR	0.1650
predicted_IP	5.1000
predicted_SO	7.6770
predicted_WHIP	1.3282

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	2.5350	1.6478	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	4.0000	1.8840	2.6246	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.0915	3.0915	form_only
predicted_H	8.0000	4.7480	5.8862	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	2.0000	0.1650	0.8073	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	2.2000	5.1000	4.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	7.6770	6.0400	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3282	1.3282	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.2
H	8
R	4
ER	4
BB	0
SO	3
HR	2
BF	17
Pitches	73

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	28
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	3.05
Pitching_Flyouts	4
Pitching_Groundouts	7
Pitching_H	7
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	7.0
Pitching_Pitches	106
Pitching_R	4
Pitching_SO	7
Pitching_Strikes	66
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260502_TOR@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	656302
playerID	656302
playerName	Dylan Cease
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	TOR
teamID	29

Braydon Fisher (680755) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 18

All-history rows before 20260508: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.872	1.100	0.228	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.111	2.000	-1.111	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	3.000	4.000	4.000	7.000	0.000	4.7647	1.4118	0.5294	0.7059	0.7059	1.2353	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	5.000	8.000	7.000	8.000	0.000	4.5000	1.5000	0.5000	0.8000	0.7000	0.8000	0.0000
season	0.20	18	19.200	6.000	14.000	8.000	20.000	1.000	2.7458	1.1186	0.3051	0.7119	0.4068	1.0170	0.0508

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6440
predicted_ER	0.4740
predicted_ERA	4.2683
predicted_H	0.7400
predicted_HR	0.0100
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0390
predicted_WHIP	1.3840

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.6440	0.4186	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4740	0.3081	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.2683	4.2683	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7400	0.4810	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0100	0.0065	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.0000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.0390	0.6754	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3840	1.3840	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	12

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.75
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	23
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	14
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_TOR@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	680755
playerID	680755
playerName	Braydon Fisher
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TOR
teamID	29

Louis Varland (686973) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 18

All-history rows before 20260508: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.894	1.000	0.206	0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.611	0.000	-1.611	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	0.000	3.000	3.000	8.000	0.0000	1.2857	0.0000	0.6429	0.6429	1.7143
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	1.000	9.000	4.000	16.000	0.9310	1.3448	0.1035	0.9310	0.4138	1.6552
season	0.20	18	18.200	1.000	14.000	7.000	29.000	0.4821	1.1250	0.0536	0.7500	0.3750	1.5536

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5090
predicted_ER	0.0470
predicted_ERA	0.4223
predicted_H	0.7650
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.6610
predicted_WHIP	1.2742

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5090	0.3309	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.0470	0.0306	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.4223	0.4223	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.7650	0.8473	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.0000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.6610	1.0796	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2742	1.2742	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	12

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.48
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	22
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_TOR@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	686973
playerID	686973
playerName	Louis Varland
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TOR
teamID	29

Tyler Rogers (643511) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 17

All-history rows before 20260508: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.176	2.000	-0.176	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.912	0.100	0.088	0.900
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.588	0.000	0.412	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	2.000	4.000	0.000	5.000	4.1538	0.9231	0.4615	0.9231	0.0000	1.1539
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	3.000	7.000	1.000	5.000	3.0000	0.8889	0.3333	0.7778	0.1111	0.5556
season	0.20	17	16.200	3.000	12.000	4.000	10.000	1.6200	0.9600	0.1800	0.7200	0.2400	0.6000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.0870
predicted_ER	0.3600
predicted_ERA	3.2432
predicted_H	0.8320
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8340
predicted_WHIP	0.9185

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0870	0.0565	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3600	0.2340	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.2432	3.2432	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8320	0.5408	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8340	0.8921	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9185	0.9185	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	1.62
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	22
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L, BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_TOR@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	643511
playerID	643511
playerName	Tyler Rogers
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TOR
teamID	29

Jeff Hoffman (656546) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 17

All-history rows before 20260508: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.588	0.000	-0.588	0.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.853	1.000	-0.653	-0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.706	1.000	-0.706	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	1.000	5.000	1.000	5.000	0.000	1.8000	1.2000	0.2000	1.0000	0.2000	1.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	8.000	13.000	5.000	14.000	1.000	8.0000	2.0000	0.8889	1.4444	0.5556	1.5556	0.1111
season	0.20	17	15.200	10.000	21.000	7.000	29.000	2.000	5.7447	1.7872	0.6383	1.3404	0.4468	1.8511	0.1277

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3740
predicted_ER	0.5290
predicted_ERA	4.7589
predicted_H	1.2240
predicted_HR	0.0640
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.3650
predicted_WHIP	1.5974

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3740	0.2431	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5290	0.3439	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.7589	4.7589	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.2240	1.1456	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0640	0.0416	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.3650	1.2372	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5974	1.5974	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.74
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_TOR@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	656546
playerID	656546
playerName	Jeff Hoffman
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TOR
teamID	29

Mason Fluharty (689254) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 19

All-history rows before 20260508: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.474	0.000	-0.474	0.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.458	0.100	-0.258	0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.895	0.000	-0.895	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	2.200	3.000	4.000	3.000	2.000	0.000	10.1250	2.6250	1.1250	1.5000	1.1250	0.7500	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	6.100	5.000	7.000	3.000	7.000	1.000	7.1053	1.5789	0.7895	1.1053	0.4737	1.1053	0.1579
season	0.20	18	12.200	7.000	11.000	7.000	17.000	1.000	4.9737	1.4211	0.5526	0.8684	0.5526	1.3421	0.0790

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5220
predicted_ER	0.5950
predicted_ERA	8.0378
predicted_H	0.8240
predicted_HR	0.0470
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.6620
predicted_WHIP	2.0181

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5220	0.3393	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5950	0.3867	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	8.0378	8.0378	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.8240	0.8856	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0470	0.0306	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.6620	0.4303	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	2.0181	2.0181	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	1
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	6.39
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_TOR@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	689254
playerID	689254
playerName	Mason Fluharty
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TOR
teamID	29

Tommy Nance (667297) · PITCHER · Reliever · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 16

All-history rows before 20260508: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.500	0.000	2.500	3.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.788	1.000	0.312	0.100
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.250	1.000	0.750	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	0.000	2.000	1.000	6.000	0.000	0.0000	0.5625	0.0000	0.3750	0.1875	1.1250	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	3.000	4.000	4.000	12.000	0.000	2.6129	0.7742	0.2903	0.3871	0.3871	1.1613	0.0000
season	0.20	16	16.100	8.000	13.000	6.000	20.000	1.000	4.4082	1.1633	0.4898	0.7959	0.3674	1.2245	0.0612

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2930
predicted_ER	0.2000
predicted_ERA	1.7962
predicted_H	0.4630
predicted_HR	0.0120
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1580
predicted_WHIP	0.7568

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.2930	0.8904	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	0.2000	1.1800	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.7962	1.7962	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.4630	0.6510	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0120	0.3578	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.0000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.1580	1.4527	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.7568	0.7568	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	3
ER	3
BB	2
SO	2
HR	1
BF	6
Pitches	28

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.41
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_TOR@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	667297
playerID	667297
playerName	Tommy Nance
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TOR
teamID	29

20260508_MIN@CLE

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 7, "confidence": 0.6279979974509636, "home_win_probability": 0.6279979974509636, "away_win_probability": 0.37200200254903637, "predicted_score_text": "MIN 4 - 7 CLE", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to final winner probability with starter-quality caps.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "predicted_score_text": "MIN 4 - 5 CLE", "confidence": 0.6279979974509636, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score", "final_prediction_synced": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "MIN 4 - 5 CLE", "winner": "CLE"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 7, "score_text": "MIN 4 - 7 CLE", "winner": "CLE"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 2, "total_run_delta": 2, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"}}

Away Team: MIN

Austin Martin (668885) · BATTER · LF · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 23

All-history rows before 20260508: 23

System season_avg: 0.3120

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3117

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.130	0.000	-0.130	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.348	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.348	5.000	-0.348	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.312	0.200	-0.312	-0.200
predicted_BB	0.783	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.783	0.000	0.217	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.174	0.000	-0.174	0.000
predicted_H	1.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.043	1.000	-1.043	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.406	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.449	0.200	-0.199	0.050
predicted_R	0.435	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.435	0.000	0.565	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.261	0.000	-0.261	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.174	0.000	-0.174	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.345	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.390	0.200	-0.390	-0.200
predicted_SO	0.609	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.609	0.000	-0.609	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.130	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.348	-
predicted_AVG	0.320	-
predicted_BB	0.783	-
predicted_H	1.040	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.406	-
predicted_R	0.435	-
predicted_RBI	0.180	-
predicted_SLG	0.345	-
predicted_SO	0.609	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.088	-0.042
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.723	0.375
predicted_AVG	0.320	0.000
predicted_BB	0.640	-0.143
predicted_H	1.180	0.140
predicted_HBP	0.020	-
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.406	-0.000
predicted_R	0.342	-0.093
predicted_RBI	0.203	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.345	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.575	-0.034

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.72), rates preserved: AVG=0.317 HR/AB=0.003

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 23

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	7.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	0.3333	0.3913	0.3333	0.3333	0.0000	0.0476	0.0952	0.0952
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	12.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	6.000	7.000	0.3077	0.4000	0.3333	0.3077	0.0000	0.0513	0.1538	0.1795
season	0.20	23	-	77.000	24.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	10.000	18.000	14.000	0.3117	0.4490	0.3896	0.3117	0.0130	0.0779	0.2338	0.1818

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0660
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.9250
predicted_AVG	0.3200
predicted_BB	0.5630
predicted_H	1.2560
predicted_HBP	0.0200
predicted_HR	0.0100
predicted_OBP	0.4059
predicted_R	0.2920
predicted_RBI	0.2160
predicted_SLG	0.3446
predicted_SO	0.5570

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1300	0.0660	0.0884	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3480	3.9250	3.7230	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3200	0.3200	0.3200	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7830	0.5630	0.6400	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0400	1.2560	1.1804	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0200	0.0200	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0100	0.0100	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4060	0.4059	0.4059	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4350	0.2920	0.3420	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1800	0.2160	0.2034	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3450	0.3446	0.3447	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6090	0.5570	0.5752	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	23
Season rows before report date	23
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	23
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.312

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260507_MIN@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	668885
playerID	668885
playerName	Austin Martin
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	MIN
teamID	17

Ryan Jeffers (680777) · BATTER · C · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 26

All-history rows before 20260508: 26

System season_avg: 0.3050

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3053

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.192	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.192	2.000	-0.192	-2.000
predicted_3B	0.038	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.038	0.000	-0.038	0.000
predicted_AB	3.654	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.654	4.000	-0.654	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.347	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.305	0.750	-0.305	-0.750
predicted_BB	0.577	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.577	1.000	0.423	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.115	3.000	-1.115	-3.000
predicted_HR	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.192	1.000	-0.192	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.412	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.402	0.800	-0.152	-0.550
predicted_R	0.808	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.808	3.000	-0.808	-3.000
predicted_RBI	0.810	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.846	1.000	-0.846	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.038	0.000	-0.038	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.707	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.537	2.000	-0.537	-2.000
predicted_SO	0.769	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.769	1.000	1.231	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.192	-
predicted_3B	0.038	-
predicted_AB	3.654	-
predicted_AVG	0.347	-
predicted_BB	0.577	-
predicted_H	1.230	-
predicted_HR	0.290	-
predicted_OBP	0.412	-
predicted_R	0.808	-
predicted_RBI	0.810	-
predicted_SLG	0.707	-
predicted_SO	0.769	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.332	0.140
predicted_3B	0.018	-0.019
predicted_AB	3.788	0.135
predicted_AVG	0.347	0.000
predicted_BB	0.533	-0.044
predicted_H	1.303	0.073
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.310	0.020
predicted_OBP	0.412	0.000
predicted_R	0.963	0.155
predicted_RBI	0.857	0.047
predicted_SLG	0.707	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.762	-0.007

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.344 HR/AB=0.082

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 26

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	7.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	6.000	2.000	4.000	0.3500	0.3913	0.8000	0.3500	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	14.000	3.000	0.000	3.000	10.000	10.000	6.000	7.000	0.3684	0.4444	0.6842	0.3684	0.0790	0.2632	0.1579	0.1842
season	0.20	26	-	95.000	29.000	5.000	1.000	5.000	22.000	21.000	15.000	20.000	0.3053	0.4018	0.5368	0.3053	0.0526	0.2316	0.1579	0.2105

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.4080
predicted_3B	0.0080
predicted_AB	3.8610
predicted_AVG	0.3475
predicted_BB	0.5090
predicted_H	1.3420
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.3210
predicted_OBP	0.4120
predicted_R	1.0470
predicted_RBI	0.8820
predicted_SLG	0.7068
predicted_SO	0.7590

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1920	0.4080	0.3324	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0380	0.0080	0.0185	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6540	3.8610	3.7885	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3470	0.3475	0.3473	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5770	0.5090	0.5328	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2300	1.3420	1.3028	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2900	0.3210	0.3101	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4120	0.4120	0.4120	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8080	1.0470	0.9633	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.8100	0.8820	0.8568	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.7070	0.7068	0.7069	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7690	0.7590	0.7625	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	26
Season rows before report date	26
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	26
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.305

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	2
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.75
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	3
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	8
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260507_MIN@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	680777
playerID	680777
playerName	Ryan Jeffers
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	MIN
teamID	17

Josh Bell (605137) · BATTER · DH · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 34

All-history rows before 20260508: 34

System season_avg: 0.2130

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2126

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.147	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.147	0.000	-0.147	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.735	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.735	4.000	0.265	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.149	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.213	0.000	0.287	0.500
predicted_BB	0.412	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.412	0.000	-0.412	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.540	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.794	0.000	1.206	2.000
predicted_HR	0.020	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.088	0.000	0.912	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.180	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.294	0.000	0.206	0.500
predicted_R	0.618	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.618	0.000	0.382	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.320	4.000	4.000	Hitting_RBI	0.529	0.000	3.471	4.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.172	1.250	1.250	Hitting_SLG	0.323	0.000	0.927	1.250
predicted_SO	0.765	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.765	0.000	-0.765	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.147	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.735	-
predicted_AVG	0.149	-
predicted_BB	0.412	-
predicted_H	0.540	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.180	-
predicted_R	0.618	-
predicted_RBI	0.320	-
predicted_SLG	0.172	-
predicted_SO	0.765	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.072	-0.075
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.954	0.219
predicted_AVG	0.149	0.000
predicted_BB	0.247	-0.164
predicted_H	0.585	0.045
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.019	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.180	0.000
predicted_R	0.428	-0.190
predicted_RBI	0.345	0.025
predicted_SLG	0.172	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.727	-0.038

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.95), rates preserved: AVG=0.148 HR/AB=0.005

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	4.000	4.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	0.1429	0.1429	0.1429	0.1429	0.0000	0.0952	0.0000	0.1429
last_10	0.35	10	-	41.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	8.000	0.1220	0.1628	0.1220	0.1220	0.0000	0.0488	0.0488	0.1951
season	0.20	34	-	127.000	27.000	5.000	3.000	18.000	21.000	14.000	26.000	0.2126	0.2937	0.3228	0.2126	0.0236	0.1417	0.1102	0.2047

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0320
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.0720
predicted_AVG	0.1495
predicted_BB	0.1590
predicted_H	0.6090
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0190
predicted_OBP	0.1800
predicted_R	0.3260
predicted_RBI	0.3590
predicted_SLG	0.1716
predicted_SO	0.7070

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1470	0.0320	0.0722	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7350	4.0720	3.9541	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1490	0.1495	0.1493	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4120	0.1590	0.2475	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5400	0.6090	0.5848	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0190	0.0193	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1800	0.1800	0.1800	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6180	0.3260	0.4282	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3200	0.3590	0.3453	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1720	0.1716	0.1717	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7650	0.7070	0.7273	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	4
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.213

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260506_MIN@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	605137
playerID	605137
playerName	Josh Bell
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	MIN
teamID	17

Byron Buxton (621439) · BATTER · CF · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 35

All-history rows before 20260508: 35

System season_avg: 0.2430

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2432

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	0.000	0.857	1.000
predicted_3B	0.029	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_AB	4.229	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	4.229	5.000	-1.229	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.211	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.243	0.200	0.090	0.133
predicted_BB	0.286	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.286	0.000	0.714	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.890	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.029	1.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_HR	0.450	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.314	0.000	-0.314	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.256	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.298	0.200	0.202	0.300
predicted_R	0.743	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.743	0.000	0.257	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.800	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.486	0.000	-0.486	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.057	0.000	-0.057	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.548	0.667	0.667	Hitting_SLG	0.514	0.200	0.153	0.467
predicted_SO	1.171	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.171	2.000	-1.171	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.029	-
predicted_AB	4.229	-
predicted_AVG	0.211	-
predicted_BB	0.286	-
predicted_H	0.890	-
predicted_HR	0.450	-
predicted_OBP	0.256	-
predicted_R	0.743	-
predicted_RBI	0.800	-
predicted_SLG	0.548	-
predicted_SO	1.171	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.091	-0.052
predicted_3B	0.014	-0.015
predicted_AB	4.237	0.008
predicted_AVG	0.211	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.264	-0.022
predicted_H	0.892	0.002
predicted_HBP	0.011	-
predicted_HR	0.451	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.256	-0.000
predicted_R	0.632	-0.111
predicted_RBI	0.804	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.548	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.037	-0.134

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.24), rates preserved: AVG=0.211 HR/AB=0.107

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 4.229

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	0.1429	0.1818	0.4286	0.1429	0.0952	0.1905	0.0476	0.2381
last_10	0.35	10	-	43.000	12.000	1.000	0.000	6.000	10.000	7.000	3.000	8.000	0.2791	0.3261	0.7209	0.2791	0.1395	0.2326	0.0698	0.1860
season	0.20	35	-	148.000	36.000	5.000	1.000	11.000	17.000	26.000	10.000	41.000	0.2432	0.2981	0.5135	0.2432	0.0743	0.1149	0.0676	0.2770

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0630
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	4.2410
predicted_AVG	0.2106
predicted_BB	0.2520
predicted_H	0.8930
predicted_HBP	0.0110
predicted_HR	0.4520
predicted_OBP	0.2556
predicted_R	0.5720
predicted_RBI	0.8060
predicted_SLG	0.5479
predicted_SO	0.9650

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.0630	0.0910	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0290	0.0060	0.0140	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.2290	4.2410	4.2368	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2110	0.2106	0.2107	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2860	0.2520	0.2639	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8900	0.8930	0.8920	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0110	0.0110	form_only
predicted_HR	0.4500	0.4520	0.4513	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2560	0.2556	0.2557	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7430	0.5720	0.6319	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.8000	0.8060	0.8039	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5480	0.5479	0.5479	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1710	0.9650	1.0371	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.243

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260507_MIN@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	621439
playerID	621439
playerName	Byron Buxton
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	MIN
teamID	17

Royce Lewis (668904) · BATTER · 3B · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 23

All-history rows before 20260508: 23

System season_avg: 0.1690

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1688

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.087	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.087	0.000	-0.087	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.348	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.348	3.000	-0.348	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.107	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.169	0.000	-0.169	0.000
predicted_BB	0.391	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.391	0.000	-0.391	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.565	0.000	-0.565	0.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.130	0.000	-0.130	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.183	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.270	0.200	-0.270	-0.200
predicted_R	0.348	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.348	1.000	-0.348	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.478	1.000	-0.478	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.087	0.000	-0.087	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.165	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.312	0.000	-0.312	0.000
predicted_SO	1.174	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.174	2.000	-1.174	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.087	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.348	-
predicted_AVG	0.107	-
predicted_BB	0.391	-
predicted_H	0.300	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.183	-
predicted_R	0.348	-
predicted_RBI	0.230	-
predicted_SLG	0.165	-
predicted_SO	1.174	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.042	-0.045
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.444	0.096
predicted_AVG	0.107	0.000
predicted_BB	0.271	-0.120
predicted_H	0.349	0.049
predicted_HBP	0.144	-
predicted_HR	0.057	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.183	-0.000
predicted_R	0.272	-0.076
predicted_RBI	0.270	0.040
predicted_SLG	0.165	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.270	0.096

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.44), rates preserved: AVG=0.101 HR/AB=0.016

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 23

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	0.0588	0.1500	0.0588	0.0588	0.0000	0.0588	0.0588	0.4118
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	13.000	0.1351	0.1750	0.2162	0.1351	0.0270	0.0811	0.0270	0.3513
season	0.20	23	-	77.000	13.000	2.000	3.000	11.000	8.000	9.000	27.000	0.1688	0.2697	0.3117	0.1688	0.0390	0.1429	0.1169	0.3507

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0180
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.4950
predicted_AVG	0.1075
predicted_BB	0.2070
predicted_H	0.3760
predicted_HBP	0.1440
predicted_HR	0.0600
predicted_OBP	0.1827
predicted_R	0.2310
predicted_RBI	0.2920
predicted_SLG	0.1645
predicted_SO	1.3220

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0870	0.0180	0.0421	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3480	3.4950	3.4436	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1070	0.1075	0.1073	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3910	0.2070	0.2714	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3000	0.3760	0.3494	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1440	0.1440	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0600	0.0565	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1830	0.1827	0.1828	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3480	0.2310	0.2719	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2300	0.2920	0.2703	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1650	0.1645	0.1647	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1740	1.3220	1.2702	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	23
Season rows before report date	23
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	23
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.169

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260505_MIN@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	668904
playerID	668904
playerName	Royce Lewis
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	MIN
teamID	17

Luke Keaschall (807712) · BATTER · 2B · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 36

All-history rows before 20260508: 36

System season_avg: 0.2370

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2370

Diff (system - data): -0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.750	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.750	2.000	0.250	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.353	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.237	0.500	-0.237	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.417	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.417	2.000	-0.417	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.260	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.889	1.000	-0.889	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.495	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.314	0.750	-0.314	-0.750
predicted_R	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.417	0.000	-0.417	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.554	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.319	0.500	-0.319	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.611	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.611	0.000	0.389	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.222	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.750	-
predicted_AVG	0.353	-
predicted_BB	0.417	-
predicted_H	1.260	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.495	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.320	-
predicted_SLG	0.554	-
predicted_SO	0.611	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.473	0.251
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.324	-0.426
predicted_AVG	0.353	0.000
predicted_BB	0.783	0.366
predicted_H	1.151	-0.109
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.007	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.495	-0.000
predicted_R	0.753	0.253
predicted_RBI	0.289	-0.031
predicted_SLG	0.554	0.000
predicted_SO	0.416	-0.195

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.75), rates preserved: AVG=0.307 HR/AB=0.002

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	6.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	6.000	0.000	0.4286	0.6000	0.7143	0.4286	0.0000	0.0714	0.4286	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	-	31.000	10.000	5.000	0.000	3.000	6.000	9.000	6.000	0.3226	0.4634	0.4839	0.3226	0.0000	0.0968	0.2903	0.1935
season	0.20	36	-	135.000	32.000	8.000	1.000	15.000	18.000	15.000	22.000	0.2370	0.3137	0.3185	0.2370	0.0074	0.1111	0.1111	0.1630

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.6090
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.0950
predicted_AVG	0.3532
predicted_BB	0.9800
predicted_H	1.0930
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0050
predicted_OBP	0.4949
predicted_R	0.8890
predicted_RBI	0.2730
predicted_SLG	0.5545
predicted_SO	0.3110

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2220	0.6090	0.4735	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7500	3.0950	3.3243	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3530	0.3532	0.3531	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4170	0.9800	0.7830	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2600	1.0930	1.1515	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0050	0.0067	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4950	0.4949	0.4949	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.8890	0.7529	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3200	0.2730	0.2894	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5540	0.5545	0.5543	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6110	0.3110	0.4160	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.237

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	1
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260507_MIN@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	807712
playerID	807712
playerName	Luke Keaschall
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	MIN
teamID	17

Victor Caratini (605170) · BATTER · 1B · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 25

All-history rows before 20260508: 25

System season_avg: 0.2000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.040	0.000	-0.040	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.400	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.400	3.000	0.600	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.108	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_BB	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.360	0.000	-0.360	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.330	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.680	0.000	-0.680	0.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.040	0.000	-0.040	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.201	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.301	0.000	-0.301	0.000
predicted_R	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.240	0.000	-0.240	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.480	0.000	-0.480	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.117	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.247	0.000	-0.247	0.000
predicted_SO	0.720	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.720	1.000	0.280	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.040	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.400	-
predicted_AVG	0.108	-
predicted_BB	0.360	-
predicted_H	0.330	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.201	-
predicted_R	0.240	-
predicted_RBI	0.290	-
predicted_SLG	0.117	-
predicted_SO	0.720	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.019	-0.021
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.400	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.108	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.277	-0.083
predicted_H	0.353	0.023
predicted_HBP	0.200	-
predicted_HR	0.009	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.201	0.000
predicted_R	0.196	-0.044
predicted_RBI	0.313	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.117	0.000
predicted_SO	0.983	0.263

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.40), rates preserved: AVG=0.104 HR/AB=0.003

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 25

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	0.0588	0.1579	0.0588	0.0588	0.0000	0.0588	0.0588	0.4118
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	10.000	0.1176	0.2000	0.1176	0.1177	0.0000	0.1177	0.0588	0.2941
season	0.20	25	-	85.000	17.000	1.000	1.000	12.000	6.000	9.000	18.000	0.2000	0.3010	0.2471	0.2000	0.0118	0.1412	0.1059	0.2118

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0080
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.4000
predicted_AVG	0.1076
predicted_BB	0.2320
predicted_H	0.3660
predicted_HBP	0.2000
predicted_HR	0.0080
predicted_OBP	0.2013
predicted_R	0.1730
predicted_RBI	0.3260
predicted_SLG	0.1170
predicted_SO	1.1240

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0400	0.0080	0.0192	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4000	3.4000	3.4000	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1080	0.1076	0.1077	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3600	0.2320	0.2768	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3300	0.3660	0.3534	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.2000	0.2000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0080	0.0087	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2010	0.2013	0.2012	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2400	0.1730	0.1964	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2900	0.3260	0.3134	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1170	0.1170	0.1170	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7200	1.1240	0.9826	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	25
Season rows before report date	25
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	25
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.2

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C-1B
gameID	20260506_MIN@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	605170
playerID	605170
playerName	Victor Caratini
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	MIN
teamID	17

Brooks Lee (686797) · BATTER · SS · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 33

All-history rows before 20260508: 33

System season_avg: 0.2640

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2645

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.152	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.152	1.000	-0.152	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.667	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.667	3.000	0.333	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.329	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.264	0.667	-0.014	-0.417
predicted_BB	0.273	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.273	1.000	-0.273	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_H	1.090	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.970	2.000	0.030	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.152	0.000	-0.152	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.372	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.321	0.750	-0.071	-0.500
predicted_R	0.515	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.515	1.000	0.485	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.890	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.636	2.000	-0.636	-2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.061	0.000	-0.061	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.489	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.430	1.000	-0.180	-0.750
predicted_SO	0.758	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.758	1.000	0.242	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.152	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.667	-
predicted_AVG	0.329	-
predicted_BB	0.273	-
predicted_H	1.090	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.372	-
predicted_R	0.515	-
predicted_RBI	0.890	-
predicted_SLG	0.489	-
predicted_SO	0.758	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.316	0.164
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.736	0.069
predicted_AVG	0.329	0.000
predicted_BB	0.258	-0.015
predicted_H	1.189	0.099
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.064	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.372	0.000
predicted_R	0.581	0.066
predicted_RBI	0.971	0.081
predicted_SLG	0.489	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.757	-0.001

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.74), rates preserved: AVG=0.318 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	7.000	3.000	0.000	6.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	0.3684	0.4000	0.5263	0.3684	0.0000	0.3158	0.0526	0.2105
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	12.000	3.000	1.000	10.000	7.000	3.000	7.000	0.3158	0.3659	0.4737	0.3158	0.0263	0.2632	0.0790	0.1842
season	0.20	33	-	121.000	32.000	5.000	5.000	21.000	17.000	9.000	25.000	0.2645	0.3206	0.4298	0.2645	0.0413	0.1736	0.0744	0.2066

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.4040
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7730
predicted_AVG	0.3292
predicted_BB	0.2500
predicted_H	1.2420
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0660
predicted_OBP	0.3722
predicted_R	0.6170
predicted_RBI	1.0150
predicted_SLG	0.4886
predicted_SO	0.7570

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1520	0.4040	0.3158	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6670	3.7730	3.7359	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3290	0.3292	0.3291	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2730	0.2500	0.2581	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0900	1.2420	1.1888	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0660	0.0639	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3720	0.3722	0.3721	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5150	0.6170	0.5813	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.8900	1.0150	0.9712	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4890	0.4886	0.4887	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7580	0.7570	0.7573	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.264

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260507_MIN@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	686797
playerID	686797
playerName	Brooks Lee
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	MIN
teamID	17

Matt Wallner (670242) · BATTER · RF · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 30

All-history rows before 20260508: 30

System season_avg: 0.1870

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1869

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.567	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.567	2.000	-0.567	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.221	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.187	0.000	-0.187	0.000
predicted_BB	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.033	0.000	-0.033	0.000
predicted_H	0.660	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.318	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.287	0.333	-0.287	-0.333
predicted_R	0.433	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.433	0.000	-0.433	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.411	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.327	0.000	-0.327	0.000
predicted_SO	1.400	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.400	1.000	-0.400	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.100	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.567	-
predicted_AVG	0.221	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.660	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.318	-
predicted_R	0.433	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.411	-
predicted_SO	1.400	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.132	0.032
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.340	-0.227
predicted_AVG	0.221	0.000
predicted_BB	0.285	-0.048
predicted_H	0.693	0.033
predicted_HBP	0.195	-
predicted_HR	0.150	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.318	-0.000
predicted_R	0.287	-0.146
predicted_RBI	0.441	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.411	0.000
predicted_SO	1.083	-0.317

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.57), rates preserved: AVG=0.194 HR/AB=0.042

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	0.2667	0.3529	0.5333	0.2667	0.0667	0.2000	0.0667	0.2667
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	8.000	0.1818	0.2895	0.3030	0.1818	0.0303	0.0909	0.0909	0.2424
season	0.20	30	-	107.000	20.000	3.000	4.000	10.000	13.000	10.000	42.000	0.1869	0.2869	0.3271	0.1869	0.0374	0.0935	0.0935	0.3925

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1490
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.2180
predicted_AVG	0.2210
predicted_BB	0.2590
predicted_H	0.7110
predicted_HBP	0.1950
predicted_HR	0.1550
predicted_OBP	0.3175
predicted_R	0.2090
predicted_RBI	0.4520
predicted_SLG	0.4115
predicted_SO	0.9120

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1000	0.1490	0.1318	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5670	3.2180	3.3401	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2210	0.2210	0.2210	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.2590	0.2849	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6600	0.7110	0.6931	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1950	0.1950	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1550	0.1497	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3180	0.3175	0.3177	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4330	0.2090	0.2874	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.4520	0.4408	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4110	0.4115	0.4113	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4000	0.9120	1.0828	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.187

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	1
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260507_MIN@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	670242
playerID	670242
playerName	Matt Wallner
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	MIN
teamID	17

Connor Prielipp (687570) · PITCHER · Starter · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 3

All-history rows before 20260508: 3

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_ER	2.000	2.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_IP	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.667	5.000	-2.667	-3.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	5.000	4.000	-4.000	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 3

Reference playing time: 2.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	3	14.000	6.000	8.000	5.000	15.000	2.000	3.8571	0.9286	0.4286	0.5714	0.3571	1.0714	0.1429
last_10	0.35	3	14.000	6.000	8.000	5.000	15.000	2.000	3.8571	0.9286	0.4286	0.5714	0.3571	1.0714	0.1429
season	0.20	3	14.000	6.000	8.000	5.000	15.000	2.000	3.8571	0.9286	0.4286	0.5714	0.3571	1.0714	0.1429

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.6670
predicted_ER	2.0000
predicted_ERA	3.8571
predicted_H	2.6670
predicted_HR	0.6670
predicted_IP	4.2000
predicted_SO	5.0000
predicted_WHIP	0.9286

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	1.6670	1.7835	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	2.0000	2.3500	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.8571	3.8571	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	2.6670	3.1335	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	2.0000	0.6670	1.1336	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	2.0000	4.2000	3.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	5.0000	3.6000	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9286	0.9286	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	3
Season rows before report date	3
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	3
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.0
H	4
R	3
ER	3
BB	2
SO	1
HR	2
BF	12
Pitches	50

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	20
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	3.86
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	4
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.0
Pitching_Pitches	91
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	4
Pitching_Strikes	59
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260502_TOR@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	687570
playerID	687570
playerName	Connor Prielipp
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	MIN
teamID	17

Andrew Morris (702193) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 7

All-history rows before 20260508: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.286	1.000	-1.286	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.971	0.200	-0.771	1.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	2.000	1.000	-1.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	11.100	5.000	11.000	2.000	10.000	1.000	3.9706	1.1471	0.4412	0.9706	0.1765	0.8823	0.0882
last_10	0.35	7	15.200	9.000	20.000	4.000	14.000	1.000	5.1702	1.5319	0.5745	1.2766	0.2553	0.8936	0.0638
season	0.20	7	15.200	9.000	20.000	4.000	14.000	1.000	5.1702	1.5319	0.5745	1.2766	0.2553	0.8936	0.0638

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5130
predicted_ER	1.2000
predicted_ERA	4.6304
predicted_H	2.6570
predicted_HR	0.1750
predicted_IP	2.1000
predicted_SO	2.0730
predicted_WHIP	1.3587

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5130	0.3335	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	1.2000	0.7800	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.6304	4.6304	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	2.6570	1.7270	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1750	0.1137	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	2.1000	2.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	2.0730	1.6974	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3587	1.3587	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	5.17
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_MIN@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	702193
playerID	702193
playerName	Andrew Morris
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIN
teamID	17

Eric Orze (679358) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 15

All-history rows before 20260508: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.600	1.000	-0.600	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.987	1.000	0.013	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.067	1.000	-1.067	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	5.000	7.000	4.000	6.000	7.5000	1.8333	0.8333	1.1667	0.6667	1.0000
last_10	0.35	10	11.000	8.000	13.000	5.000	12.000	6.5455	1.6364	0.7273	1.1818	0.4546	1.0909
season	0.20	15	16.200	9.000	16.000	8.000	16.000	4.8600	1.4400	0.5400	0.9600	0.4800	0.9600

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6380
predicted_ER	0.8480
predicted_ERA	6.6379
predicted_H	1.3000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1770
predicted_WHIP	1.6857

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.6380	0.4147	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.8480	0.5512	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	6.6379	6.6379	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.3000	0.8450	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.1770	0.7651	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.6857	1.6857	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	12

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	4.86
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_MIN@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	679358
playerID	679358
playerName	Eric Orze
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIN
teamID	17

Justin Topa (623437) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 21

All-history rows before 20260508: 21

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.667	6.000	0.333	-5.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.643	0.200	0.357	0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.619	1.000	0.381	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	9.000	10.000	3.000	3.000	3.000	18.6923	3.0000	2.0769	2.3077	0.6923	0.6923	0.6923
last_10	0.35	10	8.100	10.000	13.000	4.000	8.000	3.000	10.8000	2.0400	1.2000	1.5600	0.4800	0.9600	0.3600
season	0.20	21	17.000	14.000	23.000	8.000	13.000	4.000	7.4118	1.8235	0.8235	1.3529	0.4706	0.7647	0.2353

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4680
predicted_ER	1.2410
predicted_ERA	13.6739
predicted_H	1.5150
predicted_HR	0.3960
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.6540
predicted_WHIP	2.4287

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.4680	0.6542	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	1.2410	1.1566	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	13.6739	13.6739	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.5150	1.3348	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.3960	0.2574	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.6540	0.7751	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	2.4287	2.4287	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	24

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	8
Pitching_ER	6
Pitching_ERA	7.88
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	32
Pitching_R	6
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	18
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_MIN@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	623437
playerID	623437
playerName	Justin Topa
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIN
teamID	17

Taylor Rogers (573124) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 16

All-history rows before 20260508: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.500	0.000	1.500	2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.769	1.200	0.231	-0.200
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.750	2.000	-0.750	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.200	1.000	8.000	1.000	5.000	1.3500	1.3500	0.1500	1.2000	0.1500	0.7500
last_10	0.35	10	11.100	3.000	14.000	3.000	9.000	2.3824	1.5000	0.2647	1.2353	0.2647	0.7941
season	0.20	15	15.100	5.000	18.000	5.000	12.000	2.9348	1.5000	0.3261	1.1739	0.3261	0.7826

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2590
predicted_ER	0.2590
predicted_ERA	2.0283
predicted_H	1.3880
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8880
predicted_WHIP	1.4325

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.2590	0.5183	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.2590	0.8683	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.0283	2.0283	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.3880	1.2522	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0000	0.3500	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.8880	0.5772	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4325	1.4325	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	2
ER	2
BB	1
SO	0
HR	1
BF	5
Pitches	21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.70
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.2
Pitching_Pitches	26
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	20
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_MIN@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	573124
playerID	573124
playerName	Taylor Rogers
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIN
teamID	17

Kody Funderburk (681892) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 17

All-history rows before 20260508: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.235	1.000	-0.235	-1.000
predicted_IP	0.100	0.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.624	1.000	-0.524	-0.900
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.588	2.000	0.412	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 0.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	2.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	3.3750	0.9375	0.3750	0.1875	0.7500	0.3750	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	2.000	3.000	6.000	4.000	0.000	1.9286	0.9643	0.2143	0.3214	0.6429	0.4286	0.0000
season	0.20	17	14.100	4.000	8.000	11.000	10.000	1.000	2.5116	1.3256	0.2791	0.5581	0.7674	0.6977	0.0698

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.7160
predicted_ER	0.3000
predicted_ERA	2.6961
predicted_H	0.3090
predicted_HR	0.0140
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.4580
predicted_WHIP	1.0245

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.7160	0.4654	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3000	0.1950	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.6961	2.6961	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.3090	0.9008	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0140	0.0091	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	1.0000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.4580	0.6477	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0245	1.0245	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.1
H	2
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	2.51
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_MIN@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	681892
playerID	681892
playerName	Kody Funderburk
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIN
teamID	17

Anthony Banda (607455) · PITCHER · Reliever · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 18

All-history rows before 20260508: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.778	0.000	0.222	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.650	0.200	0.350	0.800
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.778	0.000	-0.778	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	3.000	3.000	3.000	3.000	1.000	6.2308	1.3846	0.6923	0.6923	0.6923	0.6923	0.2308
last_10	0.35	10	8.000	6.000	6.000	4.000	7.000	1.000	6.7500	1.2500	0.7500	0.7500	0.5000	0.8750	0.1250
season	0.20	18	15.200	14.000	16.000	6.000	14.000	2.000	8.0426	1.4043	0.8936	1.0213	0.3830	0.8936	0.1277

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4970
predicted_ER	0.6650
predicted_ERA	6.7749
predicted_H	0.6870
predicted_HR	0.1530
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.7040
predicted_WHIP	1.3414

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4970	0.3231	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.6650	0.7823	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	6.7749	6.7749	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.6870	0.7966	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1530	0.0994	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.7040	0.4576	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3414	1.3414	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	8.04
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	20
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_MIN@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	607455
playerID	607455
playerName	Anthony Banda
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIN
teamID	17

Home Team: CLE

David Fry (681807) · BATTER · DH · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 14

All-history rows before 20260508: 14

System season_avg: 0.2750

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2750

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.071	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.857	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.857	4.000	0.143	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.245	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.275	0.000	0.058	0.333
predicted_BB	0.571	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.571	0.000	0.429	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.660	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.786	0.000	0.214	1.000
predicted_HR	0.310	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.214	0.000	0.786	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.368	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.396	0.000	0.104	0.500
predicted_R	0.643	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.643	0.000	0.357	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.710	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	0.429	1.000	1.571	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.593	1.333	1.333	Hitting_SLG	0.525	0.000	0.808	1.333
predicted_SO	1.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.143	1.000	-1.143	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.071	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.857	-
predicted_AVG	0.245	-
predicted_BB	0.571	-
predicted_H	0.660	-
predicted_HR	0.310	-
predicted_OBP	0.368	-
predicted_R	0.643	-
predicted_RBI	0.710	-
predicted_SLG	0.593	-
predicted_SO	1.143	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.034	-0.037
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.873	0.016
predicted_AVG	0.245	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.565	-0.006
predicted_H	0.689	0.029
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.322	0.012
predicted_OBP	0.368	0.000
predicted_R	0.664	0.021
predicted_RBI	0.737	0.027
predicted_SLG	0.593	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.031	-0.112

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.87), rates preserved: AVG=0.240 HR/AB=0.112

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	0.2143	0.3529	0.6429	0.2143	0.1429	0.3571	0.2143	0.2857
last_10	0.35	10	-	30.000	8.000	0.000	3.000	6.000	8.000	5.000	11.000	0.2667	0.3714	0.5667	0.2667	0.1000	0.2000	0.1667	0.3667
season	0.20	14	-	40.000	11.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	9.000	8.000	16.000	0.2750	0.3958	0.5250	0.2750	0.0750	0.1500	0.2000	0.4000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0140
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.8810
predicted_AVG	0.2448
predicted_BB	0.5610
predicted_H	0.7050
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.3290
predicted_OBP	0.3680
predicted_R	0.6760
predicted_RBI	0.7510
predicted_SLG	0.5927
predicted_SO	0.9710

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0710	0.0140	0.0339	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.8570	2.8810	2.8726	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2450	0.2448	0.2449	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5710	0.5610	0.5645	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6600	0.7050	0.6892	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3100	0.3290	0.3224	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3680	0.3680	0.3680	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6430	0.6760	0.6645	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7100	0.7510	0.7367	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5930	0.5927	0.5928	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1430	0.9710	1.0312	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.275

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260506_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	681807
playerID	681807
playerName	David Fry
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	CLE
teamID	8

Austin Hedges (595978) · BATTER · C · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 15

All-history rows before 20260508: 15

System season_avg: 0.3110

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3111

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.267	0.000	-0.267	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.214	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	3.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.336	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.311	0.333	-0.061	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.267	1.000	-0.267	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.067	1.000	-0.067	-1.000
predicted_H	0.850	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.933	1.000	0.067	0.000
predicted_HR	0.120	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.067	0.000	0.933	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.404	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.360	0.500	-0.110	-0.250
predicted_R	0.786	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.733	1.000	0.267	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.170	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	0.200	0.000	1.800	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.067	1.000	-0.067	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.575	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SLG	0.467	0.333	0.533	0.667
predicted_SO	0.714	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.667	0.000	0.333	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.286	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.214	-
predicted_AVG	0.336	-
predicted_BB	0.286	-
predicted_H	0.850	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.404	-
predicted_R	0.786	-
predicted_RBI	0.170	-
predicted_SLG	0.575	-
predicted_SO	0.714	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.300	0.014
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.103	-0.111
predicted_AVG	0.336	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.346	0.060
predicted_H	0.961	0.111
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.133	0.013
predicted_OBP	0.404	-0.000
predicted_R	0.830	0.044
predicted_RBI	0.192	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.575	0.000
predicted_SO	0.618	-0.096

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.21), rates preserved: AVG=0.299 HR/AB=0.041

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	2.000	0.4000	0.4706	0.7333	0.4000	0.0667	0.0667	0.1333	0.1333
last_10	0.35	10	-	30.000	8.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	4.000	7.000	0.2667	0.3429	0.4333	0.2667	0.0333	0.0667	0.1333	0.2333
season	0.20	14	-	45.000	14.000	4.000	1.000	3.000	11.000	4.000	10.000	0.3111	0.3600	0.4667	0.3111	0.0222	0.0667	0.0889	0.2222

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3080
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.0430
predicted_AVG	0.3356
predicted_BB	0.3790
predicted_H	1.0210
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1400
predicted_OBP	0.4038
predicted_R	0.8540
predicted_RBI	0.2030
predicted_SLG	0.5750
predicted_SO	0.5660

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2860	0.3080	0.3003	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2140	3.0430	3.1029	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3360	0.3356	0.3357	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2860	0.3790	0.3464	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8500	1.0210	0.9611	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1400	0.1330	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4040	0.4038	0.4039	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7860	0.8540	0.8302	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1700	0.2030	0.1915	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5750	0.5750	0.5750	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7140	0.5660	0.6178	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.311

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	1
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260506_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	595978
playerID	595978
playerName	Austin Hedges
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	CLE
teamID	8

José Ramírez (608070) · BATTER · 3B · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 39

All-history rows before 20260508: 39

System season_avg: 0.2110

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2113

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.205	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.205	0.000	-0.205	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.641	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.641	3.000	0.359	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.183	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.211	0.333	-0.211	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.718	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.718	2.000	-0.718	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.051	1.000	-0.051	-1.000
predicted_H	0.650	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.769	1.000	-0.769	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.343	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.341	0.600	-0.341	-0.600
predicted_R	0.590	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.590	1.000	-0.590	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.359	0.000	-0.359	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.359	0.000	-0.359	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.239	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.394	0.333	-0.394	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.615	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.615	2.000	-0.615	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.205	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.641	-
predicted_AVG	0.183	-
predicted_BB	0.718	-
predicted_H	0.650	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.343	-
predicted_R	0.590	-
predicted_RBI	0.140	-
predicted_SLG	0.239	-
predicted_SO	0.615	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.140	-0.065
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.525	-0.116
predicted_AVG	0.183	0.000
predicted_BB	0.806	0.088
predicted_H	0.640	-0.010
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.029	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.343	0.000
predicted_R	0.554	-0.036
predicted_RBI	0.136	-0.004
predicted_SLG	0.239	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.694	0.079

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.64), rates preserved: AVG=0.176 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	5.000	4.000	0.1875	0.3810	0.1875	0.1875	0.0000	0.0000	0.3125	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	7.000	7.000	0.1622	0.2955	0.2162	0.1622	0.0000	0.0541	0.1892	0.1892
season	0.20	39	-	142.000	30.000	8.000	6.000	14.000	23.000	28.000	24.000	0.2113	0.3412	0.3944	0.2113	0.0423	0.0986	0.1972	0.1690

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1050
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.4630
predicted_AVG	0.1834
predicted_BB	0.8530
predicted_H	0.6350
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0290
predicted_OBP	0.3431
predicted_R	0.5350
predicted_RBI	0.1340
predicted_SLG	0.2389
predicted_SO	0.7360

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2050	0.1050	0.1400	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6410	3.4630	3.5253	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1830	0.1834	0.1833	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7180	0.8530	0.8057	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6500	0.6350	0.6402	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0290	0.0294	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3430	0.3431	0.3431	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5900	0.5350	0.5543	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1400	0.1340	0.1361	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2390	0.2389	0.2389	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6150	0.7360	0.6936	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.211

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	1
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260507_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	608070
playerID	608070
playerName	José Ramírez
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	CLE
teamID	8

Travis Bazzana (683953) · BATTER · 2B · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 8

All-history rows before 20260508: 8

System season_avg: 0.1920

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1923

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.250	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.250	3.000	0.750	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.238	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.192	0.333	0.058	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.875	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.875	1.000	-0.875	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.700	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.625	1.000	0.375	0.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.403	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.382	0.600	-0.132	-0.350
predicted_R	0.625	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.625	1.000	0.375	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.280	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.250	0.000	0.750	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.500	2.000	-0.500	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.238	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.192	0.333	0.308	0.167
predicted_SO	0.625	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.625	1.000	-0.625	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.250	-
predicted_AVG	0.238	-
predicted_BB	0.875	-
predicted_H	0.700	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.403	-
predicted_R	0.625	-
predicted_RBI	0.280	-
predicted_SLG	0.238	-
predicted_SO	0.625	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.293	0.043
predicted_AVG	0.238	0.000
predicted_BB	0.797	-0.078
predicted_H	0.758	0.058
predicted_HBP	0.158	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.403	0.000
predicted_R	0.618	-0.007
predicted_RBI	0.303	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.238	0.000
predicted_SO	0.561	-0.064

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.29), rates preserved: AVG=0.230 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	5.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	0.2941	0.4286	0.2941	0.2941	0.1177	0.1765	0.1177
last_10	0.35	8	-	26.000	5.000	2.000	5.000	7.000	5.000	0.1923	0.3824	0.1923	0.1923	0.0769	0.2692	0.1923
season	0.20	8	-	26.000	5.000	2.000	5.000	7.000	5.000	0.1923	0.3824	0.1923	0.1923	0.0769	0.2692	0.1923

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.3170
predicted_AVG	0.2381
predicted_BB	0.7550
predicted_H	0.7900
predicted_HBP	0.1580
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.4032
predicted_R	0.6140
predicted_RBI	0.3160
predicted_SLG	0.2381
predicted_SO	0.5270

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2500	3.3170	3.2935	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2380	0.2381	0.2381	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.8750	0.7550	0.7970	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7000	0.7900	0.7585	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1580	0.1580	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4030	0.4032	0.4031	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6250	0.6140	0.6179	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2800	0.3160	0.3034	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2380	0.2381	0.2381	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6250	0.5270	0.5613	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.192

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	2
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260507_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	683953
playerID	683953
playerName	Travis Bazzana
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	CLE
teamID	8

Rhys Hoskins (656555) · BATTER · 1B · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 25

All-history rows before 20260508: 25

System season_avg: 0.2070

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2073

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.240	0.000	-0.240	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.280	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.280	3.000	-0.280	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.202	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.207	0.000	0.126	0.333
predicted_BB	0.600	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.600	0.000	0.400	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.640	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.680	0.000	0.320	1.000
predicted_HR	0.270	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.120	0.000	0.880	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.324	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.000	0.167	0.500
predicted_R	0.560	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.560	0.000	0.440	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.990	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	0.480	0.000	1.520	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.512	1.333	1.333	Hitting_SLG	0.390	0.000	0.943	1.333
predicted_SO	1.080	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.080	2.000	0.920	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.240	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.280	-
predicted_AVG	0.202	-
predicted_BB	0.600	-
predicted_H	0.640	-
predicted_HR	0.270	-
predicted_OBP	0.324	-
predicted_R	0.560	-
predicted_RBI	0.990	-
predicted_SLG	0.512	-
predicted_SO	1.080	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.196	-0.044
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.238	-0.042
predicted_AVG	0.202	0.000
predicted_BB	0.541	-0.058
predicted_H	0.647	0.007
predicted_HBP	0.133	-
predicted_HR	0.273	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.324	0.000
predicted_R	0.581	0.021
predicted_RBI	1.002	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.512	0.000
predicted_SO	1.120	0.040

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.28), rates preserved: AVG=0.197 HR/AB=0.083

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 25

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	3.000	2.000	6.000	0.1875	0.3000	0.6250	0.1875	0.1250	0.4375	0.1250	0.3750
last_10	0.35	10	-	32.000	7.000	1.000	2.000	8.000	6.000	6.000	11.000	0.2188	0.3500	0.4375	0.2188	0.0625	0.2500	0.1875	0.3438
season	0.20	25	-	82.000	17.000	6.000	3.000	12.000	14.000	15.000	27.000	0.2073	0.3333	0.3902	0.2073	0.0366	0.1463	0.1829	0.3293

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1730
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.2160
predicted_AVG	0.2024
predicted_BB	0.5100
predicted_H	0.6510
predicted_HBP	0.1330
predicted_HR	0.2750
predicted_OBP	0.3242
predicted_R	0.5920
predicted_RBI	1.0090
predicted_SLG	0.5124
predicted_SO	1.1410

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2400	0.1730	0.1964	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2800	3.2160	3.2384	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2020	0.2024	0.2023	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6000	0.5100	0.5415	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6400	0.6510	0.6472	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1330	0.1330	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2700	0.2750	0.2732	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3240	0.3242	0.3241	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5600	0.5920	0.5808	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.9900	1.0090	1.0023	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5120	0.5124	0.5123	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0800	1.1410	1.1197	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	25
Season rows before report date	25
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	25
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.207

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260506_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	656555
playerID	656555
playerName	Rhys Hoskins
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	CLE
teamID	8

Brayan Rocchio (677587) · BATTER · SS · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 37

All-history rows before 20260508: 37

System season_avg: 0.2620

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2623

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.108	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.108	0.000	-0.108	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.297	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.297	4.000	-0.297	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.205	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.262	0.500	0.071	-0.167
predicted_BB	0.351	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.351	1.000	0.649	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.081	1.000	-0.081	-1.000
predicted_H	0.610	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.865	2.000	0.135	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.081	0.000	-0.081	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.296	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.343	0.600	0.157	-0.100
predicted_R	0.405	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.405	1.000	0.595	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.514	0.000	-0.514	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.108	1.000	-0.108	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.236	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.369	0.500	-0.036	-0.167
predicted_SO	0.378	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.378	2.000	-0.378	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.108	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.297	-
predicted_AVG	0.205	-
predicted_BB	0.351	-
predicted_H	0.610	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.296	-
predicted_R	0.405	-
predicted_RBI	0.250	-
predicted_SLG	0.236	-
predicted_SO	0.378	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.075	-0.033
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.454	0.157
predicted_AVG	0.205	0.000
predicted_BB	0.411	0.060
predicted_H	0.685	0.075
predicted_HBP	0.012	-
predicted_HR	0.015	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.296	-0.000
predicted_R	0.403	-0.002
predicted_RBI	0.284	0.034
predicted_SLG	0.236	0.000
predicted_SO	0.425	0.047

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.45), rates preserved: AVG=0.198 HR/AB=0.004

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	0.1667	0.2857	0.1667	0.1667	0.0000	0.0556	0.1667	0.1667
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	8.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	3.000	3.000	0.2222	0.2821	0.2500	0.2222	0.0000	0.0833	0.0833	0.0833
season	0.20	37	-	122.000	32.000	4.000	3.000	19.000	15.000	13.000	14.000	0.2623	0.3431	0.3689	0.2623	0.0246	0.1557	0.1066	0.1148

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0580
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.5390
predicted_AVG	0.2052
predicted_BB	0.4440
predicted_H	0.7260
predicted_HBP	0.0120
predicted_HR	0.0170
predicted_OBP	0.2959
predicted_R	0.4020
predicted_RBI	0.3020
predicted_SLG	0.2363
predicted_SO	0.4500

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1080	0.0580	0.0755	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2970	3.5390	3.4543	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2050	0.2052	0.2051	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3510	0.4440	0.4114	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6100	0.7260	0.6854	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0120	0.0120	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0170	0.0146	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2960	0.2959	0.2959	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4050	0.4020	0.4031	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2500	0.3020	0.2838	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2360	0.2363	0.2362	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3780	0.4500	0.4248	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.262

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	1
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260507_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	677587
playerID	677587
playerName	Brayan Rocchio
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	CLE
teamID	8

Angel Martínez (682657) · BATTER · RF · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 27

All-history rows before 20260508: 27

System season_avg: 0.2910

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2913

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.259	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.259	0.000	-0.259	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.815	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.815	4.000	-0.815	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.275	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.291	0.250	0.042	0.083
predicted_BB	0.185	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.185	1.000	0.815	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.074	0.000	-0.074	0.000
predicted_H	1.020	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.111	1.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.185	0.000	-0.185	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.328	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.336	0.400	0.164	0.100
predicted_R	0.481	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.481	0.000	0.519	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.556	0.000	-0.556	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.185	0.000	-0.185	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.423	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.505	0.250	-0.172	0.083
predicted_SO	0.778	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.778	2.000	0.222	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.259	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.815	-
predicted_AVG	0.275	-
predicted_BB	0.185	-
predicted_H	1.020	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.328	-
predicted_R	0.481	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.423	-
predicted_SO	0.778	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.251	-0.009
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.830	0.015
predicted_AVG	0.275	0.000
predicted_BB	0.252	0.067
predicted_H	1.044	0.024
predicted_HBP	0.015	-
predicted_HR	0.104	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.328	0.000
predicted_R	0.357	-0.123
predicted_RBI	0.279	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.423	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.893	0.115

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.83), rates preserved: AVG=0.273 HR/AB=0.027

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.815

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	0.2632	0.3333	0.3158	0.2632	0.0000	0.0000	0.1053	0.2632
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	11.000	3.000	2.000	5.000	3.000	2.000	10.000	0.2821	0.3171	0.5128	0.2821	0.0513	0.1282	0.0513	0.2564
season	0.20	27	-	103.000	30.000	7.000	5.000	15.000	13.000	5.000	21.000	0.2913	0.3364	0.5049	0.2913	0.0485	0.1456	0.0485	0.2039

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2460
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.8380
predicted_AVG	0.2754
predicted_BB	0.2880
predicted_H	1.0570
predicted_HBP	0.0150
predicted_HR	0.1060
predicted_OBP	0.3282
predicted_R	0.2910
predicted_RBI	0.2840
predicted_SLG	0.4226
predicted_SO	0.9550

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2590	0.2460	0.2505	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8150	3.8380	3.8299	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2750	0.2754	0.2753	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1850	0.2880	0.2520	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0200	1.0570	1.0440	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0150	0.0150	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1060	0.1039	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3280	0.3282	0.3281	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4810	0.2910	0.3575	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.2840	0.2791	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4230	0.4226	0.4227	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7780	0.9550	0.8931	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.291

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260506_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	682657
playerID	682657
playerName	Angel Martínez
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	CLE
teamID	8

Petey Halpin (690984) · BATTER · CF · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 3

All-history rows before 20260508: 3

System season_avg: 0.1670

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1667

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	4.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.167	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.167	0.250	0.333	0.250
predicted_BB	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.550	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.667	1.000	1.333	1.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.231	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.231	0.400	0.269	0.100
predicted_R	0.667	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.667	1.000	0.333	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.667	1.000	-0.667	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.167	0.750	0.750	Hitting_SLG	0.167	0.250	0.583	0.500
predicted_SO	1.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.167	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.550	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.231	-
predicted_R	0.667	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.167	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.167	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.333	0.000
predicted_H	0.626	0.076
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.231	-0.000
predicted_R	0.667	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.311	0.041
predicted_SLG	0.167	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	0.000

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.157 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 3

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	3	-	12.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	0.1667	0.2308	0.1667	0.1667	0.0833	0.0833	0.2500
last_10	0.35	3	-	12.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	0.1667	0.2308	0.1667	0.1667	0.0833	0.0833	0.2500
season	0.20	3	-	12.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	0.1667	0.2308	0.1667	0.1667	0.0833	0.0833	0.2500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.0000
predicted_AVG	0.1667
predicted_BB	0.3330
predicted_H	0.6670
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.2308
predicted_R	0.6670
predicted_RBI	0.3330
predicted_SLG	0.1667
predicted_SO	1.0000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0000	4.0000	4.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1670	0.1667	0.1668	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.3330	0.3330	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5500	0.6670	0.6260	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2310	0.2308	0.2309	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6670	0.6670	0.6670	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.3330	0.3110	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1670	0.1667	0.1668	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	3
Season rows before report date	3
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	3
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.167

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260507_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	690984
playerID	690984
playerName	Petey Halpin
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	CLE
teamID	8

Steven Kwan (680757) · BATTER · LF · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 35

All-history rows before 20260508: 35

System season_avg: 0.2120

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2117

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.920	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.914	4.000	1.086	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.149	0.200	0.200	Hitting_AVG	0.212	0.250	-0.012	-0.050
predicted_BB	0.486	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.486	1.000	-0.486	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_H	0.580	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.829	1.000	0.171	0.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.258	0.200	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.306	0.400	-0.106	-0.200
predicted_R	0.457	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.457	1.000	-0.457	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.257	0.000	-0.257	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.057	0.000	-0.057	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.178	0.200	0.200	Hitting_SLG	0.270	0.250	-0.070	-0.050
predicted_SO	0.514	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.514	1.000	-0.514	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.920	-
predicted_AVG	0.149	-
predicted_BB	0.486	-
predicted_H	0.580	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.258	-
predicted_R	0.457	-
predicted_RBI	0.170	-
predicted_SLG	0.178	-
predicted_SO	0.514	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.114	-0.029
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.961	0.041
predicted_AVG	0.149	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.464	-0.022
predicted_H	0.588	0.008
predicted_HBP	0.136	-
predicted_HR	0.007	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.258	-0.000
predicted_R	0.590	0.133
predicted_RBI	0.174	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.178	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.500	-0.014

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.96), rates preserved: AVG=0.148 HR/AB=0.002

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.920

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	0.1000	0.2174	0.1000	0.1000	0.0000	0.0500	0.1000	0.1000
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	7.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	5.000	6.000	0.1750	0.2826	0.2250	0.1750	0.0000	0.0250	0.1250	0.1500
season	0.20	35	-	137.000	29.000	5.000	1.000	9.000	16.000	17.000	18.000	0.2117	0.3057	0.2701	0.2117	0.0073	0.0657	0.1241	0.1314

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0990
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.9830
predicted_AVG	0.1486
predicted_BB	0.4520
predicted_H	0.5920
predicted_HBP	0.1360
predicted_HR	0.0060
predicted_OBP	0.2579
predicted_R	0.6610
predicted_RBI	0.1770
predicted_SLG	0.1778
predicted_SO	0.4930

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.0990	0.1144	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9200	3.9830	3.9609	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1490	0.1486	0.1487	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4860	0.4520	0.4639	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5800	0.5920	0.5878	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1360	0.1360	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0060	0.0074	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2580	0.2579	0.2579	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4570	0.6610	0.5896	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1700	0.1770	0.1745	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1780	0.1778	0.1779	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5140	0.4930	0.5004	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.212

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260507_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	680757
playerID	680757
playerName	Steven Kwan
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	CLE
teamID	8

Parker Messick (800048) · PITCHER · Starter · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 7

All-history rows before 20260508: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.571	4.000	1.429	-1.000
predicted_IP	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.771	5.000	-3.771	-3.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	6.286	6.000	-5.286	-5.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 2.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	30.100	10.000	21.000	7.000	33.000	3.000	2.9670	0.9231	0.3297	0.6923	0.2308	1.0879	0.0989
last_10	0.35	7	41.100	11.000	28.000	10.000	44.000	4.000	2.3952	0.9194	0.2661	0.6774	0.2419	1.0645	0.0968
season	0.20	7	41.100	11.000	28.000	10.000	44.000	4.000	2.3952	0.9194	0.2661	0.6774	0.2419	1.0645	0.0968

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.4210
predicted_ER	1.7680
predicted_ERA	2.6525
predicted_H	4.1050
predicted_HR	0.5860
predicted_IP	6.0000
predicted_SO	6.4500
predicted_WHIP	0.9211

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	1.4210	1.9736	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	1.7680	2.1992	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.6525	2.6525	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	4.1050	3.0183	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.5860	0.7309	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	2.0000	6.0000	4.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	6.4500	4.5425	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9211	0.9211	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.0
H	1
R	3
ER	3
BB	3
SO	1
HR	1
BF	10
Pitches	44

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	21
Pitching_ER	4
Pitching_ERA	2.40
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	6
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	3
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.0
Pitching_Pitches	78
Pitching_R	4
Pitching_SO	6
Pitching_Strikes	55
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_CLE@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	800048
playerID	800048
playerName	Parker Messick
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	CLE
teamID	8

Tim Herrin (682120) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 14

All-history rows before 20260508: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.579	0.100	0.621	1.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.357	0.000	-0.357	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	WHIP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	1.2000	0.6000	0.6000	0.4000
last_10	0.35	10	8.100	7.000	6.000	3.000	1.5600	0.8400	0.7200	0.3600
season	0.20	14	10.200	9.000	7.000	5.000	1.5000	0.8438	0.6562	0.4688

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5330
predicted_ER	0.0000
predicted_ERA	0.0000
predicted_H	0.5980
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.3260
predicted_WHIP	1.3860

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5330	0.3465	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.5980	0.7387	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	0.2000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.3260	0.2119	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3860	1.3860	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.00
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	6
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	682120
playerID	682120
playerName	Tim Herrin
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CLE
teamID	8

Cade Smith (671922) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 17

All-history rows before 20260508: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.353	0.000	-0.353	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.006	1.000	-0.006	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.353	2.000	-0.353	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	0.000	4.000	0.000	8.000	0.000	0.0000	0.7500	0.0000	0.7500	0.0000	1.5000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	1.000	10.000	1.000	13.000	0.000	0.8710	1.0645	0.0968	0.9677	0.0968	1.2581	0.0000
season	0.20	17	17.100	6.000	17.000	4.000	23.000	1.000	3.1154	1.2115	0.3462	0.9808	0.2308	1.3269	0.0577

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.0800
predicted_ER	0.1030
predicted_ERA	0.9279
predicted_H	0.8720
predicted_HR	0.0120
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.3810
predicted_WHIP	0.9524

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0800	0.0520	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1030	0.0669	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.9279	0.9279	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.8720	0.9168	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0120	0.0078	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.3810	1.2477	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9524	0.9524	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.12
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	671922
playerID	671922
playerName	Cade Smith
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CLE
teamID	8

Erik Sabrowski (681870) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 19

All-history rows before 20260508: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.211	0.000	-0.211	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.663	0.100	0.337	0.900
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.421	1.000	0.579	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.200	0.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	0.000	0.0000	0.8182	0.0000	0.2727	0.5454	1.9091	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.100	4.000	4.000	5.000	15.000	1.000	4.3200	1.0800	0.4800	0.4800	0.6000	1.8000	0.1200
season	0.20	19	16.100	4.000	7.000	7.000	27.000	1.000	2.2041	0.8571	0.2449	0.4286	0.4286	1.6531	0.0612

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3970
predicted_ER	0.1590
predicted_ERA	1.9528
predicted_H	0.2760
predicted_HR	0.0400
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	1.3340
predicted_WHIP	0.9176

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3970	0.2581	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1590	0.1034	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.9528	1.9528	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.2760	0.1794	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0400	0.0260	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.3340	1.5671	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9176	0.9176	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	1
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.20
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	6
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	4
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	681870
playerID	681870
playerName	Erik Sabrowski
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CLE
teamID	8

Matt Festa (670036) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 16

All-history rows before 20260508: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.562	0.000	-0.562	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.906	1.000	0.094	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.062	2.000	-1.062	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.9286	0.6429	0.2143	0.2143	0.4286	0.6429	0.2143
last_10	0.35	10	11.100	3.000	6.000	3.000	12.000	1.000	2.3824	0.7941	0.2647	0.5294	0.2647	1.0588	0.0882
season	0.20	16	18.000	9.000	15.000	4.000	17.000	3.000	4.5000	1.0556	0.5000	0.8333	0.2222	0.9444	0.1667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3300
predicted_ER	0.2890
predicted_ERA	2.6017
predicted_H	0.4480
predicted_HR	0.1610
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8490
predicted_WHIP	0.7784

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3300	0.2145	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2890	0.1878	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.6017	2.6017	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.4480	0.2912	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1610	0.1047	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.8490	0.5518	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.7784	0.7784	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	10

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.50
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	670036
playerID	670036
playerName	Matt Festa
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CLE
teamID	8

Hunter Gaddis (683769) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 10

All-history rows before 20260508: 10

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.700	1.000	0.300	0.000
predicted_IP	0.100	0.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.560	0.200	-0.460	-0.100
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.700	0.000	1.300	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 0.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.000	4.000	8.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	12.0000	3.3333	1.3333	2.6667	0.6667	0.3333	0.3333
last_10	0.35	9	7.000	6.000	11.000	3.000	7.000	2.000	7.7143	2.0000	0.8571	1.5714	0.4286	1.0000	0.2857
season	0.20	9	7.000	6.000	11.000	3.000	7.000	2.000	7.7143	2.0000	0.8571	1.5714	0.4286	1.0000	0.2857

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3570
predicted_ER	0.7140
predicted_ERA	9.6429
predicted_H	1.3760
predicted_HR	0.2050
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.4670
predicted_WHIP	2.6000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3570	0.2321	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.7140	0.8141	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	9.6429	9.6429	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.3760	0.8944	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2050	0.1333	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.4670	1.0035	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	2.6000	2.6000	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	10
Season rows before report date	10
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.1
H	0
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	12

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	9.00
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	10
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	6
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	683769
playerID	683769
playerName	Hunter Gaddis
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CLE
teamID	8

Colin Holderman (670059) · PITCHER · Reliever · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 7

All-history rows before 20260508: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.614	2.000	-0.614	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.571	3.000	-1.571	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	9.000	0.000	4.000	0.000	8.000	0.000	0.0000	0.4444	0.0000	0.4444	0.0000	0.8889	0.0000
last_10	0.35	7	12.000	2.000	6.000	2.000	11.000	1.000	1.5000	0.6667	0.1667	0.5000	0.1667	0.9167	0.0833
season	0.20	7	12.000	2.000	6.000	2.000	11.000	1.000	1.5000	0.6667	0.1667	0.5000	0.1667	0.9167	0.0833

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1530
predicted_ER	0.1530
predicted_ERA	0.8250
predicted_H	0.7920
predicted_HR	0.0760
predicted_IP	1.2000
predicted_SO	1.5070
predicted_WHIP	0.5667

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1530	0.0994	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1530	0.0994	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.8250	0.8250	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.7920	0.8648	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0760	0.0494	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.2000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.5070	0.9795	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.5667	0.5667	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.50
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	26
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	17
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	670059
playerID	670059
playerName	Colin Holderman
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CLE
teamID	8

Peyton Pallette (688883) · PITCHER · Reliever · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 11

All-history rows before 20260508: 11

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.727	0.000	-0.727	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.291	1.000	-0.291	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.364	1.000	-1.364	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	4.000	4.000	8.000	4.000	0.000	7.2000	2.4000	0.8000	0.8000	1.6000	0.8000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	12.200	8.000	11.000	11.000	13.000	1.000	5.6842	1.7368	0.6316	0.8684	0.8684	1.0263	0.0790
season	0.20	11	14.200	8.000	11.000	11.000	15.000	1.000	4.9091	1.5000	0.5454	0.7500	0.7500	1.0227	0.0682

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.3890
predicted_ER	0.8170
predicted_ERA	6.2113
predicted_H	0.9630
predicted_HR	0.0490
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.0930
predicted_WHIP	1.9879

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	1.3890	0.9029	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.8170	0.5311	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	6.2113	6.2113	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9630	0.6260	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0490	0.0319	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.1000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.0930	0.7105	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.9879	1.9879	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	9

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.91
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	21
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	688883
playerID	688883
playerName	Peyton Pallette
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CLE
teamID	8

20260508_NYM@ARI

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "confidence": 0.58, "home_win_probability": 0.42000000000000004, "away_win_probability": 0.58, "predicted_score_text": "NYM 6 - 4 ARI", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to final winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "predicted_score_text": "NYM 5 - 4 ARI", "confidence": 0.58, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score", "final_prediction_synced": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "NYM 5 - 4 ARI", "winner": "NYM"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "NYM 6 - 4 ARI", "winner": "NYM"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 1, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 1, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"}}

Away Team: NYM

Brett Baty (683146) · BATTER · 3B · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 28

All-history rows before 20260508: 28

System season_avg: 0.2270

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2268

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.179	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.179	1.000	-0.179	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.036	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.036	0.000	-0.036	0.000
predicted_AB	3.464	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.464	4.000	1.536	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.201	0.400	0.400	Hitting_AVG	0.227	0.500	0.173	-0.100
predicted_BB	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.286	1.000	-0.286	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.036	0.000	-0.036	0.000
predicted_H	0.670	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.786	2.000	1.214	0.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.036	0.000	-0.036	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.360	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.290	0.600	0.110	-0.200
predicted_R	0.464	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.464	2.000	0.536	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.150	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.393	0.000	0.607	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.274	0.400	0.400	Hitting_SLG	0.330	0.750	0.070	-0.350
predicted_SO	1.071	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.071	0.000	-0.071	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.179	-
predicted_3B	0.036	-
predicted_AB	3.464	-
predicted_AVG	0.201	-
predicted_BB	0.286	-
predicted_H	0.670	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.360	-
predicted_R	0.464	-
predicted_RBI	0.150	-
predicted_SLG	0.274	-
predicted_SO	1.071	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.191	0.012
predicted_3B	0.017	-0.019
predicted_AB	3.268	-0.196
predicted_AVG	0.201	0.000
predicted_BB	0.538	0.252
predicted_H	0.648	-0.022
predicted_HBP	0.136	-
predicted_HR	0.008	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.360	0.000
predicted_R	0.515	0.051
predicted_RBI	0.144	-0.006
predicted_SLG	0.274	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.929	-0.142

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.46), rates preserved: AVG=0.187 HR/AB=0.002

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	2.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	4.000	0.2000	0.4000	0.2667	0.2000	0.0000	0.0000	0.2667	0.2667
last_10	0.35	10	-	32.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	7.000	8.000	0.1875	0.3500	0.2500	0.1875	0.0000	0.0625	0.2188	0.2500
season	0.20	28	-	97.000	22.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	11.000	13.000	8.000	30.000	0.2268	0.2897	0.3299	0.2268	0.0103	0.1134	0.0825	0.3093

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1970
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.1630
predicted_AVG	0.2010
predicted_BB	0.6740
predicted_H	0.6360
predicted_HBP	0.1360
predicted_HR	0.0070
predicted_OBP	0.3604
predicted_R	0.5420
predicted_RBI	0.1410
predicted_SLG	0.2735
predicted_SO	0.8520

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1790	0.1970	0.1907	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0360	0.0070	0.0171	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4640	3.1630	3.2683	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2010	0.2010	0.2010	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2860	0.6740	0.5382	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6700	0.6360	0.6479	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1360	0.1360	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0070	0.0080	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3600	0.3604	0.3603	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4640	0.5420	0.5147	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1500	0.1410	0.1442	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2740	0.2735	0.2737	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0710	0.8520	0.9286	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.227

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260506_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	683146
playerID	683146
playerName	Brett Baty
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	NYM
teamID	18

Marcus Semien (543760) · BATTER · 2B · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 37

All-history rows before 20260508: 37

System season_avg: 0.2270

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2273

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.162	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.162	0.000	-0.162	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.568	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.568	2.000	0.432	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.248	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.227	0.000	-0.227	0.000
predicted_BB	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.270	2.000	-0.270	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_H	0.800	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.811	0.000	-0.811	0.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.054	0.000	-0.054	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.313	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.285	0.500	-0.285	-0.500
predicted_R	0.324	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.324	1.000	-0.324	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.351	0.000	-0.351	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.108	0.000	-0.108	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.405	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.318	0.000	-0.318	0.000
predicted_SO	0.757	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.757	0.000	1.243	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.162	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.568	-
predicted_AVG	0.248	-
predicted_BB	0.270	-
predicted_H	0.800	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.313	-
predicted_R	0.324	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.405	-
predicted_SO	0.757	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.159	-0.003
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.585	0.017
predicted_AVG	0.248	0.000
predicted_BB	0.315	0.045
predicted_H	0.860	0.060
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.130	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.313	0.000
predicted_R	0.584	0.260
predicted_RBI	0.409	0.029
predicted_SLG	0.405	0.000
predicted_SO	0.756	-0.001

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.58), rates preserved: AVG=0.240 HR/AB=0.036

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	2.000	4.000	0.2778	0.3500	0.5000	0.2778	0.0556	0.1111	0.1111	0.2222
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	6.000	3.000	7.000	0.2222	0.2821	0.3333	0.2222	0.0278	0.1389	0.0833	0.1944
season	0.20	37	-	132.000	30.000	6.000	2.000	13.000	12.000	10.000	28.000	0.2273	0.2847	0.3182	0.2273	0.0152	0.0985	0.0758	0.2121

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1570
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.5940
predicted_AVG	0.2482
predicted_BB	0.3390
predicted_H	0.8920
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.1360
predicted_OBP	0.3132
predicted_R	0.7240
predicted_RBI	0.4250
predicted_SLG	0.4053
predicted_SO	0.7560

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1620	0.1570	0.1588	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5680	3.5940	3.5849	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2480	0.2482	0.2481	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2700	0.3390	0.3149	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8000	0.8920	0.8598	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1360	0.1304	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3130	0.3132	0.3131	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3240	0.7240	0.5840	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.4250	0.4093	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4050	0.4053	0.4052	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7570	0.7560	0.7563	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.227

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260507_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	543760
playerID	543760
playerName	Marcus Semien
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	NYM
teamID	18

Carson Benge (701807) · BATTER · CF · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 29

All-history rows before 20260508: 29

System season_avg: 0.2100

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2100

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.138	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.138	1.000	-0.138	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.448	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.448	5.000	0.552	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.291	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.210	0.400	0.040	-0.150
predicted_BB	0.345	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.345	0.000	-0.345	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.960	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.724	2.000	0.276	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.103	0.000	-0.103	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.371	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.282	0.400	-0.032	-0.150
predicted_R	0.483	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.483	2.000	0.517	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.640	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.345	2.000	-0.345	-2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.207	0.000	-0.207	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.537	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.340	0.600	-0.090	-0.350
predicted_SO	0.793	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.793	1.000	-0.793	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.138	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.448	-
predicted_AVG	0.291	-
predicted_BB	0.345	-
predicted_H	0.960	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.371	-
predicted_R	0.483	-
predicted_RBI	0.640	-
predicted_SLG	0.537	-
predicted_SO	0.793	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.252	0.114
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.469	0.021
predicted_AVG	0.291	0.000
predicted_BB	0.411	0.066
predicted_H	0.994	0.034
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.177	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.371	0.000
predicted_R	0.708	0.225
predicted_RBI	0.663	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.537	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.693	-0.100

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.47), rates preserved: AVG=0.287 HR/AB=0.051

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	5.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	5.000	3.000	3.000	0.2941	0.4000	0.5882	0.2941	0.0588	0.2353	0.1765	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	12.000	3.000	2.000	7.000	8.000	3.000	6.000	0.3333	0.3846	0.5833	0.3333	0.0556	0.1944	0.0833	0.1667
season	0.20	29	-	100.000	21.000	4.000	3.000	10.000	14.000	10.000	23.000	0.2100	0.2818	0.3400	0.2100	0.0300	0.1000	0.1000	0.2300

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3140
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.4800
predicted_AVG	0.2910
predicted_BB	0.4470
predicted_H	1.0130
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1810
predicted_OBP	0.3710
predicted_R	0.8290
predicted_RBI	0.6750
predicted_SLG	0.5368
predicted_SO	0.6390

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1380	0.3140	0.2524	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4480	3.4800	3.4688	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2910	0.2910	0.2910	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3450	0.4470	0.4113	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9600	1.0130	0.9944	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.1810	0.1772	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3710	0.3710	0.3710	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4830	0.8290	0.7079	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6400	0.6750	0.6627	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5370	0.5368	0.5369	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7930	0.6390	0.6929	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260506_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	701807
playerID	701807
playerName	Carson Benge
pos	OF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	NYM
teamID	18

Juan Soto (665742) · BATTER · LF · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 21

All-history rows before 20260508: 21

System season_avg: 0.2880

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2875

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.190	0.000	-0.190	0.000
predicted_3B	0.048	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.048	1.000	-0.048	-1.000
predicted_AB	3.810	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.810	4.000	0.190	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.217	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.287	0.250	-0.287	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.619	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.619	0.000	0.381	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.048	0.000	-0.048	0.000
predicted_H	0.830	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.095	1.000	-1.095	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.190	0.000	-0.190	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.294	0.200	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.383	0.250	-0.183	-0.050
predicted_R	0.476	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.476	0.000	-0.476	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.476	0.000	-0.476	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.048	0.000	-0.048	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.494	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.512	0.750	-0.512	-0.750
predicted_SO	0.667	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.190	-
predicted_3B	0.048	-
predicted_AB	3.810	-
predicted_AVG	0.217	-
predicted_BB	0.619	-
predicted_H	0.830	-
predicted_HR	0.230	-
predicted_OBP	0.294	-
predicted_R	0.476	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.494	-
predicted_SO	0.667	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.139	-0.051
predicted_3B	0.103	0.055
predicted_AB	3.863	0.053
predicted_AVG	0.217	0.000
predicted_BB	0.529	-0.090
predicted_H	0.840	0.010
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.233	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.294	-0.000
predicted_R	0.507	0.031
predicted_RBI	0.448	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.494	0.000
predicted_SO	0.770	0.103

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.86), rates preserved: AVG=0.217 HR/AB=0.060

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=12.0, BvP AVG=0.250)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	2.000	1.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	2.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 3.810

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	0.1500	0.2174	0.4000	0.1500	0.0500	0.1000	0.1000	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	10.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	7.000	5.000	7.000	0.2632	0.3409	0.6053	0.2632	0.0790	0.1316	0.1316	0.1842
season	0.20	21	-	80.000	23.000	4.000	1.000	4.000	10.000	10.000	13.000	14.000	0.2875	0.3830	0.5125	0.2875	0.0500	0.1250	0.1625	0.1750

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1110
predicted_3B	0.1330
predicted_AB	3.8920
predicted_AVG	0.2171
predicted_BB	0.4810
predicted_H	0.8450
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.2340
predicted_OBP	0.2937
predicted_R	0.5230
predicted_RBI	0.4520
predicted_SLG	0.4944
predicted_SO	0.8250

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1900	0.1110	0.1386	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0480	0.1330	0.1033	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8100	3.8920	3.8633	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2170	0.2171	0.2171	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6190	0.4810	0.5293	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8300	0.8450	0.8397	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2300	0.2340	0.2326	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2940	0.2937	0.2938	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4760	0.5230	0.5066	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.4520	0.4478	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4940	0.4944	0.4943	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6670	0.8250	0.7697	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.288

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	1
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260507_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	665742
playerID	665742
playerName	Juan Soto
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	NYM
teamID	18

Luis Torrens (620443) · BATTER · C · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 11

All-history rows before 20260508: 11

System season_avg: 0.1520

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1515

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	3.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.112	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.152	0.000	0.348	0.500
predicted_BB	0.091	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.280	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.455	0.000	1.545	2.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.196	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.200	0.250	0.300	0.250
predicted_R	0.273	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.273	1.000	0.727	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.300	3.000	3.000	Hitting_RBI	0.273	1.000	2.727	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.182	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.212	0.000	0.288	0.500
predicted_SO	0.545	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.545	0.000	-0.545	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.112	-
predicted_BB	0.091	-
predicted_H	0.280	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.196	-
predicted_R	0.273	-
predicted_RBI	0.300	-
predicted_SLG	0.182	-
predicted_SO	0.545	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.192	0.010
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.883	-0.117
predicted_AVG	0.112	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.128	0.037
predicted_H	0.303	0.023
predicted_HBP	0.148	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.196	-0.000
predicted_R	0.320	0.047
predicted_RBI	0.329	0.029
predicted_SLG	0.182	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.555	0.010

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.101 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	3.000	3.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	13.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	0.0769	0.2000	0.1538	0.0769	0.1538	0.0769	0.2308
last_10	0.35	10	-	30.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	0.1333	0.1875	0.2000	0.1333	0.1000	0.0333	0.1667
season	0.20	11	-	33.000	5.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	0.1515	0.2000	0.2121	0.1515	0.0909	0.0303	0.1818

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1980
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.8200
predicted_AVG	0.1116
predicted_BB	0.1480
predicted_H	0.3150
predicted_HBP	0.1480
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.1956
predicted_R	0.3450
predicted_RBI	0.3450
predicted_SLG	0.1816
predicted_SO	0.5600

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1820	0.1980	0.1924	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	2.8200	2.8830	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1120	0.1116	0.1117	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0910	0.1480	0.1280	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.2800	0.3150	0.3028	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1480	0.1480	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1960	0.1956	0.1957	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2730	0.3450	0.3198	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3000	0.3450	0.3292	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1820	0.1816	0.1817	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5450	0.5600	0.5548	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	3
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.152

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260506_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	620443
playerID	620443
playerName	Luis Torrens
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	NYM
teamID	18

Bo Bichette (666182) · BATTER · SS · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 37

All-history rows before 20260508: 37

System season_avg: 0.2370

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2368

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.135	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.135	0.000	-0.135	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.108	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	4.108	3.000	0.892	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.239	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.237	0.000	-0.237	0.000
predicted_BB	0.243	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.243	1.000	-0.243	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.950	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.973	0.000	-0.973	0.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.054	0.000	-0.054	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.284	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.276	0.250	-0.276	-0.250
predicted_R	0.432	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.432	0.000	-0.432	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.432	0.000	-0.432	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.281	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.309	0.000	-0.309	0.000
predicted_SO	0.811	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.811	0.000	1.189	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.135	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.108	-
predicted_AVG	0.239	-
predicted_BB	0.243	-
predicted_H	0.950	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.284	-
predicted_R	0.432	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.281	-
predicted_SO	0.811	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.065	-0.070
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.146	0.038
predicted_AVG	0.239	0.000
predicted_BB	0.270	0.027
predicted_H	0.981	0.031
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.049	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.284	0.000
predicted_R	0.305	-0.127
predicted_RBI	0.402	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.281	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.574	-0.237

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.15), rates preserved: AVG=0.237 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 4.108

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	22.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	0.2273	0.2609	0.2273	0.2273	0.0000	0.0909	0.0454	0.0909
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	10.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	4.000	3.000	0.2564	0.3182	0.3333	0.2564	0.0256	0.1026	0.1026	0.0769
season	0.20	37	-	152.000	36.000	5.000	2.000	16.000	16.000	9.000	30.000	0.2368	0.2761	0.3092	0.2368	0.0132	0.1053	0.0592	0.1974

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0270
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.1670
predicted_AVG	0.2394
predicted_BB	0.2840
predicted_H	0.9970
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0480
predicted_OBP	0.2840
predicted_R	0.2370
predicted_RBI	0.4080
predicted_SLG	0.2808
predicted_SO	0.4470

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1350	0.0270	0.0648	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1080	4.1670	4.1463	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2390	0.2394	0.2393	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2430	0.2840	0.2696	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9500	0.9970	0.9806	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0480	0.0487	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2840	0.2840	0.2840	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4320	0.2370	0.3053	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.4080	0.4017	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2810	0.2808	0.2809	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8110	0.4470	0.5744	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.237

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260507_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	666182
playerID	666182
playerName	Bo Bichette
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	NYM
teamID	18

Mark Vientos (668901) · BATTER · 1B · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 26

All-history rows before 20260508: 26

System season_avg: 0.2200

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2198

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.154	2.000	2.000	Hitting_2B	0.154	0.000	1.846	2.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.500	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	4.000	1.500	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.210	0.400	0.400	Hitting_AVG	0.220	0.000	0.180	0.400
predicted_BB	0.269	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.269	0.000	-0.269	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.710	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.769	0.000	1.231	2.000
predicted_HR	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.258	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.273	0.000	0.127	0.400
predicted_R	0.385	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.385	0.000	0.615	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.780	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	0.538	0.000	1.462	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.478	0.800	0.800	Hitting_SLG	0.396	0.000	0.404	0.800
predicted_SO	0.923	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.923	0.000	-0.923	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.154	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.210	-
predicted_BB	0.269	-
predicted_H	0.710	-
predicted_HR	0.250	-
predicted_OBP	0.258	-
predicted_R	0.385	-
predicted_RBI	0.780	-
predicted_SLG	0.478	-
predicted_SO	0.923	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.178	0.024
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.692	0.192
predicted_AVG	0.210	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.257	-0.012
predicted_H	0.766	0.056
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.267	0.017
predicted_OBP	0.258	-0.000
predicted_R	0.449	0.064
predicted_RBI	0.845	0.065
predicted_SLG	0.478	0.000
predicted_SO	0.964	0.041

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.69), rates preserved: AVG=0.207 HR/AB=0.072

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, BvP AVG=0.333)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	2.000	2.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 26

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	0.2000	0.2381	0.5500	0.2000	0.1000	0.3000	0.0500	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	8.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	4.000	3.000	10.000	0.2162	0.2750	0.4324	0.2162	0.0541	0.1892	0.0811	0.2703
season	0.20	26	-	91.000	20.000	4.000	4.000	14.000	10.000	7.000	24.000	0.2198	0.2727	0.3956	0.2198	0.0440	0.1538	0.0769	0.2637

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1910
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7950
predicted_AVG	0.2096
predicted_BB	0.2510
predicted_H	0.7960
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.2760
predicted_OBP	0.2579
predicted_R	0.4830
predicted_RBI	0.8800
predicted_SLG	0.4780
predicted_SO	0.9860

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1540	0.1910	0.1781	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5000	3.7950	3.6917	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2100	0.2096	0.2097	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2690	0.2510	0.2573	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7100	0.7960	0.7659	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2500	0.2760	0.2669	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2580	0.2579	0.2579	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3850	0.4830	0.4487	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7800	0.8800	0.8450	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4780	0.4780	0.4780	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9230	0.9860	0.9640	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	26
Season rows before report date	26
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	26
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	2
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.22

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260507_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	668901
playerID	668901
playerName	Mark Vientos
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	NYM
teamID	18

MJ Melendez (669004) · BATTER · RF · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 13

All-history rows before 20260508: 13

System season_avg: 0.3610

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3611

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.231	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.231	0.000	-0.231	0.000
predicted_3B	0.077	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.077	1.000	-0.077	-1.000
predicted_AB	2.769	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	2.769	2.000	1.231	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.398	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.361	1.000	0.139	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.308	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.308	1.000	-0.308	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_H	0.990	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	1.000	2.000	1.000	0.000
predicted_HR	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.475	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.439	1.000	0.061	-0.500
predicted_R	0.308	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.308	0.000	0.692	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.550	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.462	0.000	-0.462	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.785	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.667	2.000	-0.167	-1.500
predicted_SO	1.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	0.000	-1.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.231	-
predicted_3B	0.077	-
predicted_AB	2.769	-
predicted_AVG	0.398	-
predicted_BB	0.308	-
predicted_H	0.990	-
predicted_HR	0.200	-
predicted_OBP	0.475	-
predicted_R	0.308	-
predicted_RBI	0.550	-
predicted_SLG	0.785	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.129	-0.102
predicted_3B	0.122	0.045
predicted_AB	2.564	-0.205
predicted_AVG	0.398	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.252	-0.056
predicted_H	0.981	-0.009
predicted_HBP	0.147	-
predicted_HR	0.196	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.475	0.000
predicted_R	0.273	-0.035
predicted_RBI	0.549	-0.001
predicted_SLG	0.785	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.833	-0.167

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.77), rates preserved: AVG=0.354 HR/AB=0.071

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	11.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	0.4545	0.5385	0.9091	0.4546	0.0909	0.2727	0.0909	0.2727
last_10	0.35	10	-	26.000	9.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	3.000	2.000	8.000	0.3462	0.4138	0.6923	0.3462	0.0769	0.1923	0.0769	0.3077
season	0.20	13	-	36.000	13.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	4.000	4.000	13.000	0.3611	0.4390	0.6667	0.3611	0.0556	0.1667	0.1111	0.3611

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0740
predicted_3B	0.1470
predicted_AB	2.4540
predicted_AVG	0.3979
predicted_BB	0.2210
predicted_H	0.9760
predicted_HBP	0.1470
predicted_HR	0.1940
predicted_OBP	0.4750
predicted_R	0.2540
predicted_RBI	0.5480
predicted_SLG	0.7847
predicted_SO	0.7430

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2310	0.0740	0.1290	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0770	0.1470	0.1225	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.7690	2.4540	2.5643	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3980	0.3979	0.3979	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3080	0.2210	0.2515	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9900	0.9760	0.9809	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1470	0.1470	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2000	0.1940	0.1961	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4750	0.4750	0.4750	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3080	0.2540	0.2729	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5500	0.5480	0.5487	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.7850	0.7847	0.7848	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.7430	0.8329	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.361

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	1
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	1.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260506_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	669004
playerID	669004
playerName	MJ Melendez
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	NYM
teamID	18

Francisco Alvarez (682626) · BATTER · DH · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 29

All-history rows before 20260508: 29

System season_avg: 0.2320

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2323

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.103	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.103	0.000	0.897	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.414	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.414	3.000	-0.414	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.253	0.667	0.667	Hitting_AVG	0.232	0.333	0.434	0.333
predicted_BB	0.379	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.379	1.000	0.621	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.730	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.793	1.000	1.207	1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.138	0.000	-0.138	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.312	0.750	0.750	Hitting_OBP	0.319	0.500	0.431	0.250
predicted_R	0.345	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.345	0.000	0.655	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.310	0.000	-0.310	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.316	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SLG	0.384	0.333	0.616	0.667
predicted_SO	0.862	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.862	2.000	-0.862	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.103	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.414	-
predicted_AVG	0.253	-
predicted_BB	0.379	-
predicted_H	0.730	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.312	-
predicted_R	0.345	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.316	-
predicted_SO	0.862	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.130	0.027
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.615	0.201
predicted_AVG	0.253	0.000
predicted_BB	0.346	-0.033
predicted_H	0.868	0.138
predicted_HBP	0.015	-
predicted_HR	0.026	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.312	0.000
predicted_R	0.409	0.064
predicted_RBI	0.320	0.050
predicted_SLG	0.316	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	0.138

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.61), rates preserved: AVG=0.240 HR/AB=0.007

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, BvP AVG=0.125)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	5.000	0.3158	0.3810	0.3684	0.3158	0.0000	0.1053	0.1053	0.2632
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	13.000	0.1842	0.2195	0.2105	0.1842	0.0000	0.0790	0.0526	0.3421
season	0.20	29	-	99.000	23.000	3.000	4.000	9.000	10.000	11.000	25.000	0.2323	0.3186	0.3838	0.2323	0.0404	0.0909	0.1111	0.2525

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1450
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7230
predicted_AVG	0.2530
predicted_BB	0.3280
predicted_H	0.9420
predicted_HBP	0.0150
predicted_HR	0.0300
predicted_OBP	0.3120
predicted_R	0.4430
predicted_RBI	0.3470
predicted_SLG	0.3162
predicted_SO	1.0750

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1030	0.1450	0.1303	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4140	3.7230	3.6149	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2530	0.2530	0.2530	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3790	0.3280	0.3458	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7300	0.9420	0.8678	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0150	0.0150	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0300	0.0265	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3120	0.3120	0.3120	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3450	0.4430	0.4087	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.3470	0.3201	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3160	0.3162	0.3161	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8620	1.0750	1.0004	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.232

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260507_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	682626
playerID	682626
playerName	Francisco Alvarez
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	NYM
teamID	18

Nolan McLean (690997) · PITCHER · Starter · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 7

All-history rows before 20260508: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.857	3.000	-0.857	-2.000
predicted_IP	4.200	4.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.486	4.000	-1.286	0.200
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	-	Pitching_SO	7.286	6.000	-2.286	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 4.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	29.000	10.000	21.000	7.000	39.000	1.000	3.1034	0.9655	0.3448	0.7241	0.2414	1.3448	0.0345
last_10	0.35	7	39.100	13.000	26.000	11.000	51.000	2.000	2.9746	0.9407	0.3305	0.6610	0.2797	1.2966	0.0508
season	0.20	7	39.100	13.000	26.000	11.000	51.000	2.000	2.9746	0.9407	0.3305	0.6610	0.2797	1.2966	0.0508

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.4870
predicted_ER	1.9090
predicted_ERA	3.0326
predicted_H	3.9070
predicted_HR	0.2460
predicted_IP	5.2000
predicted_SO	7.4700
predicted_WHIP	0.9519

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	1.4870	1.6665	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	1.9090	1.5909	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.0326	3.0326	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	3.9070	3.2396	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2460	0.1599	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.2000	5.2000	5.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	7.4700	6.6055	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9519	0.9519	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.2
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	2
SO	5
HR	0
BF	19
Pitches	81

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	18
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	2.97
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	4
Pitching_H	6
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	4.0
Pitching_Pitches	78
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	6
Pitching_Strikes	51
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260502_NYM@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	690997
playerID	690997
playerName	Nolan McLean
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	NYM
teamID	18

Brooks Raley (548384) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 15

All-history rows before 20260508: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.793	1.100	0.307	0.000
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.200	2.000	1.800	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	0.000	1.000	1.000	8.000	0.000	0.0000	0.3750	0.0000	0.1875	0.1875	1.5000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	2.000	5.000	5.000	11.000	1.000	1.9286	1.0714	0.2143	0.5357	0.5357	1.1786	0.1071
season	0.20	15	14.000	2.000	7.000	5.000	18.000	1.000	1.2857	0.8571	0.1429	0.5000	0.3571	1.2857	0.0714

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3430
predicted_ER	0.1040
predicted_ERA	0.9322
predicted_H	0.3720
predicted_HR	0.0520
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.3450
predicted_WHIP	0.7152

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3430	0.2230	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1040	0.0676	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.9322	0.9322	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.3720	0.2418	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0520	0.0338	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.0000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	1.3450	1.9242	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.7152	0.7152	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	3
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.29
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	548384
playerID	548384
playerName	Brooks Raley
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYM
teamID	18

Devin Williams (642207) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 14

All-history rows before 20260508: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.571	0.000	2.429	3.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.750	0.200	0.350	0.900
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.429	2.000	0.571	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	0.000	1.000	0.000	7.000	0.000	0.0000	0.2143	0.0000	0.2143	0.0000	1.5000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.200	6.000	13.000	1.000	16.000	1.000	6.2308	1.6154	0.6923	1.5000	0.1154	1.8461	0.1154
season	0.20	13	11.200	6.000	14.000	3.000	20.000	1.000	4.6286	1.4571	0.5143	1.2000	0.2571	1.7143	0.0857

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.0920
predicted_ER	0.3450
predicted_ERA	3.1065
predicted_H	0.8610
predicted_HR	0.0580
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.6640
predicted_WHIP	0.9532

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.0920	0.4098	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	0.3450	1.2742	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.1065	3.1065	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	0.8610	1.9596	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	2.0000	0.0580	0.7377	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.0000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.6640	1.7816	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9532	0.9532	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	4
R	3
ER	3
BB	1
SO	2
HR	2
BF	8
Pitches	32

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	2
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	6.17
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	3
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	9
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	6
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	642207
playerID	642207
playerName	Devin Williams
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYM
teamID	18

Huascar Brazobán (623211) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 16

All-history rows before 20260508: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.188	1.000	-0.188	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.856	1.000	0.144	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.875	1.000	1.125	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.100	2.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	0.000	2.8421	0.9474	0.3158	0.4737	0.4737	0.6316	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	12.000	3.000	8.000	5.000	11.000	1.000	2.2500	1.0833	0.2500	0.6667	0.4167	0.9167	0.0833
season	0.20	16	17.200	3.000	12.000	5.000	14.000	1.000	1.5283	0.9623	0.1698	0.6793	0.2830	0.7924	0.0566

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5260
predicted_ER	0.3340
predicted_ERA	2.3721
predicted_H	0.7380
predicted_HR	0.0510
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	0.9670
predicted_WHIP	0.9979

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5260	0.3419	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3340	0.2171	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.3721	2.3721	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7380	0.4797	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0510	0.0331	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.1000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.9670	1.3285	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9979	0.9979	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	1.53
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	25
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	623211
playerID	623211
playerName	Huascar Brazobán
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYM
teamID	18

Luke Weaver (596133) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 15

All-history rows before 20260508: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.533	0.000	-0.533	0.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.913	1.000	-0.713	-0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	2.000	0.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	2.000	5.000	0.000	8.000	1.000	3.3750	0.9375	0.3750	0.9375	0.0000	1.5000	0.1875
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	8.000	11.000	2.000	12.000	2.000	6.9677	1.2581	0.7742	1.0645	0.1935	1.1613	0.1935
season	0.20	15	15.100	8.000	12.000	4.000	15.000	2.000	4.6957	1.0435	0.5217	0.7826	0.2609	0.9783	0.1304

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1200
predicted_ER	0.5440
predicted_ERA	4.8966
predicted_H	0.9510
predicted_HR	0.1780
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.2770
predicted_WHIP	1.0709

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1200	0.0780	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5440	0.3536	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.8966	4.8966	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.9510	0.9681	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1780	0.1157	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.2770	1.1801	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0709	1.0709	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.70
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	20
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	16
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	596133
playerID	596133
playerName	Luke Weaver
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYM
teamID	18

Home Team: ARI

Ildemaro Vargas (545121) · BATTER · 2B · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 27

All-history rows before 20260508: 27

System season_avg: 0.3450

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3455

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_3B	0.037	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.037	0.000	-0.037	0.000
predicted_AB	4.074	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.074	4.000	-0.074	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.268	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.345	0.250	-0.095	0.000
predicted_BB	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.060	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.407	1.000	-0.407	0.000
predicted_HR	0.080	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.222	0.000	0.778	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.282	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.363	0.250	-0.113	0.000
predicted_R	0.704	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.704	0.000	0.296	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.430	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.704	0.000	0.296	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.399	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SLG	0.582	0.250	0.418	0.750
predicted_SO	0.407	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.407	1.000	0.593	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.222	-
predicted_3B	0.037	-
predicted_AB	4.074	-
predicted_AVG	0.268	-
predicted_BB	0.111	-
predicted_H	1.060	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.282	-
predicted_R	0.704	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.399	-
predicted_SO	0.407	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.210	-0.012
predicted_3B	0.040	0.003
predicted_AB	4.036	-0.038
predicted_AVG	0.268	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.099	-0.012
predicted_H	1.070	0.010
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.079	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.282	-0.000
predicted_R	0.428	-0.276
predicted_RBI	0.436	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.399	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.322	-0.085

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.07), rates preserved: AVG=0.263 HR/AB=0.019

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 4.074

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.1500	0.1500	0.2000	0.1500	0.0000	0.0500	0.0000	0.0500
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	15.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	0.3750	0.4048	0.5500	0.3750	0.0250	0.1500	0.0500	0.0750
season	0.20	27	-	110.000	38.000	6.000	1.000	6.000	19.000	19.000	3.000	11.000	0.3455	0.3628	0.5818	0.3454	0.0546	0.1727	0.0273	0.1000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2040
predicted_3B	0.0420
predicted_AB	4.0150
predicted_AVG	0.2678
predicted_BB	0.0920
predicted_H	1.0750
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0790
predicted_OBP	0.2817
predicted_R	0.2790
predicted_RBI	0.4400
predicted_SLG	0.3989
predicted_SO	0.2760

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2220	0.2040	0.2103	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0370	0.0420	0.0403	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0740	4.0150	4.0357	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2680	0.2678	0.2679	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1110	0.0920	0.0986	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0600	1.0750	1.0697	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0790	0.0794	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2820	0.2817	0.2818	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7040	0.2790	0.4277	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.4400	0.4365	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3990	0.3989	0.3989	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4070	0.2760	0.3219	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.345

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260507_PIT@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	545121
playerID	545121
playerName	Ildemaro Vargas
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	ARI
teamID	1

Corbin Carroll (682998) · BATTER · RF · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 34

All-history rows before 20260508: 34

System season_avg: 0.2640

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2645

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.206	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.206	0.000	-0.206	0.000
predicted_3B	0.118	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_AB	3.559	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.559	4.000	0.441	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.202	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.264	0.500	-0.014	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.529	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.529	0.000	-0.529	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.690	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.941	2.000	0.059	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.147	1.000	-0.147	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.271	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.359	0.500	-0.109	-0.250
predicted_R	0.647	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.647	1.000	0.353	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.588	1.000	-0.588	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.391	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.512	1.250	-0.262	-1.000
predicted_SO	1.088	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.088	0.000	-1.088	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.206	-
predicted_3B	0.118	-
predicted_AB	3.559	-
predicted_AVG	0.202	-
predicted_BB	0.529	-
predicted_H	0.690	-
predicted_HR	0.180	-
predicted_OBP	0.271	-
predicted_R	0.647	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.391	-
predicted_SO	1.088	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.121	-0.084
predicted_3B	0.057	-0.061
predicted_AB	3.626	0.067
predicted_AVG	0.202	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.441	-0.088
predicted_H	0.721	0.031
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.186	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.271	-0.000
predicted_R	0.542	-0.105
predicted_RBI	0.396	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.391	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.909	-0.179

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.63), rates preserved: AVG=0.199 HR/AB=0.051

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	0.1667	0.2381	0.3333	0.1667	0.0556	0.1111	0.1111	0.1111
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	8.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	3.000	12.000	0.2105	0.2619	0.3947	0.2105	0.0526	0.0790	0.0790	0.3158
season	0.20	34	-	121.000	32.000	7.000	4.000	5.000	20.000	22.000	18.000	37.000	0.2645	0.3592	0.5124	0.2645	0.0413	0.1653	0.1488	0.3058

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0760
predicted_3B	0.0240
predicted_AB	3.6620
predicted_AVG	0.2016
predicted_BB	0.3930
predicted_H	0.7380
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.1890
predicted_OBP	0.2707
predicted_R	0.4850
predicted_RBI	0.4050
predicted_SLG	0.3906
predicted_SO	0.8120

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2060	0.0760	0.1215	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.1180	0.0240	0.0569	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5590	3.6620	3.6260	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2020	0.2016	0.2017	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5290	0.3930	0.4406	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6900	0.7380	0.7212	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1800	0.1890	0.1859	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2710	0.2707	0.2708	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6470	0.4850	0.5417	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.4050	0.3962	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3910	0.3906	0.3907	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0880	0.8120	0.9086	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.264

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260507_PIT@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	682998
playerID	682998
playerName	Corbin Carroll
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	ARI
teamID	1

Nolan Arenado (571448) · BATTER · 3B · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 33

All-history rows before 20260508: 33

System season_avg: 0.2740

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2743

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.091	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.424	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.424	3.000	0.576	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.283	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.274	0.333	-0.024	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.242	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.242	0.000	-0.242	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.920	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.939	1.000	0.061	0.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.152	0.000	-0.152	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.390	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.325	0.333	-0.075	-0.083
predicted_R	0.515	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.515	0.000	-0.515	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.515	0.000	-0.515	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.394	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.434	0.333	-0.184	-0.083
predicted_SO	0.758	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.758	1.000	1.242	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.091	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.424	-
predicted_AVG	0.283	-
predicted_BB	0.242	-
predicted_H	0.920	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.390	-
predicted_R	0.515	-
predicted_RBI	0.220	-
predicted_SLG	0.394	-
predicted_SO	0.758	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.126	0.035
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.181	-0.243
predicted_AVG	0.283	0.000
predicted_BB	0.351	0.109
predicted_H	0.884	-0.036
predicted_HBP	0.134	-
predicted_HR	0.066	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.390	0.000
predicted_R	0.503	-0.012
predicted_RBI	0.208	-0.012
predicted_SLG	0.394	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.794	0.036

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.42), rates preserved: AVG=0.258 HR/AB=0.019

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	0.2667	0.3889	0.3333	0.2667	0.0000	0.0000	0.1333	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	29.000	9.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	5.000	6.000	0.3103	0.4286	0.4483	0.3103	0.0345	0.1035	0.1724	0.2069
season	0.20	33	-	113.000	31.000	3.000	5.000	17.000	17.000	8.000	25.000	0.2743	0.3252	0.4336	0.2743	0.0442	0.1504	0.0708	0.2212

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1440
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.0500
predicted_AVG	0.2835
predicted_BB	0.4100
predicted_H	0.8650
predicted_HBP	0.1340
predicted_HR	0.0640
predicted_OBP	0.3901
predicted_R	0.4960
predicted_RBI	0.2020
predicted_SLG	0.3936
predicted_SO	0.8130

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0910	0.1440	0.1255	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4240	3.0500	3.1809	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2830	0.2835	0.2833	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2420	0.4100	0.3512	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9200	0.8650	0.8842	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1340	0.1340	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0640	0.0661	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3900	0.3901	0.3901	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5150	0.4960	0.5027	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2200	0.2020	0.2083	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3940	0.3936	0.3937	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7580	0.8130	0.7937	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.274

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260506_PIT@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	571448
playerID	571448
playerName	Nolan Arenado
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	ARI
teamID	1

Geraldo Perdomo (672695) · BATTER · SS · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 33

All-history rows before 20260508: 33

System season_avg: 0.2340

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2342

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.152	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.152	0.000	0.848	1.000
predicted_3B	0.091	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_AB	3.370	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.364	2.000	1.636	3.000
predicted_AVG	0.188	0.400	0.400	Hitting_AVG	0.234	0.000	0.166	0.400
predicted_BB	0.667	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.667	2.000	-0.667	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_H	0.630	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.788	0.000	1.212	2.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.061	0.000	-0.061	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.338	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.356	0.500	0.044	-0.100
predicted_R	0.424	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.424	1.000	0.576	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.323	0.600	0.600	Hitting_SLG	0.387	0.000	0.213	0.600
predicted_SO	0.515	3.000	3.000	Hitting_SO	0.515	0.000	2.485	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.152	-
predicted_3B	0.091	-
predicted_AB	3.370	-
predicted_AVG	0.188	-
predicted_BB	0.667	-
predicted_H	0.630	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.338	-
predicted_R	0.424	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.323	-
predicted_SO	0.515	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.235	0.083
predicted_3B	0.043	-0.048
predicted_AB	3.385	0.015
predicted_AVG	0.188	0.000
predicted_BB	0.736	0.069
predicted_H	0.635	0.005
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.048	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.338	-0.000
predicted_R	0.389	-0.035
predicted_RBI	0.421	0.001
predicted_SLG	0.323	0.000
predicted_SO	0.523	0.008

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.38), rates preserved: AVG=0.188 HR/AB=0.014

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	2.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	3.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	3.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	0.1765	0.3333	0.2941	0.1765	0.0000	0.1177	0.2353	0.1177
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	8.000	7.000	0.1765	0.3333	0.3235	0.1765	0.0294	0.1471	0.2353	0.2059
season	0.20	33	-	111.000	26.000	5.000	3.000	2.000	11.000	14.000	22.000	17.000	0.2342	0.3556	0.3874	0.2342	0.0180	0.0991	0.1982	0.1532

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2800
predicted_3B	0.0180
predicted_AB	3.3930
predicted_AVG	0.1880
predicted_BB	0.7730
predicted_H	0.6380
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0470
predicted_OBP	0.3378
predicted_R	0.3700
predicted_RBI	0.4210
predicted_SLG	0.3231
predicted_SO	0.5280

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1520	0.2800	0.2352	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0910	0.0180	0.0435	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3700	3.3930	3.3849	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1880	0.1880	0.1880	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6670	0.7730	0.7359	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6300	0.6380	0.6352	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0470	0.0480	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3380	0.3378	0.3379	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4240	0.3700	0.3889	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.4210	0.4206	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3230	0.3231	0.3231	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5150	0.5280	0.5234	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.234

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260507_PIT@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	672695
playerID	672695
playerName	Geraldo Perdomo
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	ARI
teamID	1

Gabriel Moreno (672515) · BATTER · C · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 14

All-history rows before 20260508: 14

System season_avg: 0.2310

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2308

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.714	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.714	3.000	0.286	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.182	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.231	0.000	0.019	0.250
predicted_BB	0.214	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.214	0.000	-0.214	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.600	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.857	0.000	0.143	1.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.211	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.281	0.000	-0.031	0.250
predicted_R	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.510	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.429	0.000	-0.429	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.347	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.365	0.000	-0.115	0.250
predicted_SO	0.929	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.929	2.000	1.071	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.286	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.714	-
predicted_AVG	0.182	-
predicted_BB	0.214	-
predicted_H	0.600	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.211	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.510	-
predicted_SLG	0.347	-
predicted_SO	0.929	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.242	-0.044
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.772	0.058
predicted_AVG	0.182	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.152	-0.062
predicted_H	0.659	0.059
predicted_HBP	0.052	-
predicted_HR	0.131	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.211	0.000
predicted_R	0.473	-0.027
predicted_RBI	0.554	0.044
predicted_SLG	0.347	0.000
predicted_SO	1.190	0.261

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.77), rates preserved: AVG=0.175 HR/AB=0.035

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	9.000	0.1500	0.1500	0.3500	0.1500	0.0500	0.2000	0.0000	0.4500
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	5.000	2.000	10.000	0.1944	0.2500	0.3333	0.1944	0.0278	0.1111	0.0556	0.2778
season	0.20	14	-	52.000	12.000	4.000	1.000	6.000	7.000	3.000	13.000	0.2308	0.2807	0.3654	0.2308	0.0192	0.1154	0.0577	0.2500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2180
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.8030
predicted_AVG	0.1817
predicted_BB	0.1180
predicted_H	0.6910
predicted_HBP	0.0520
predicted_HR	0.1370
predicted_OBP	0.2111
predicted_R	0.4580
predicted_RBI	0.5780
predicted_SLG	0.3472
predicted_SO	1.3300

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2860	0.2180	0.2418	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7140	3.8030	3.7718	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1820	0.1817	0.1818	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2140	0.1180	0.1516	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6000	0.6910	0.6592	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0520	0.0520	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1370	0.1310	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2110	0.2111	0.2111	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.4580	0.4727	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5100	0.5780	0.5542	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3470	0.3472	0.3471	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9290	1.3300	1.1897	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.231

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260506_PIT@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	672515
playerID	672515
playerName	Gabriel Moreno
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	ARI
teamID	1

Jose Fernandez (699912) · BATTER · 1B · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 24

All-history rows before 20260508: 24

System season_avg: 0.3150

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3146

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.708	2.000	2.000	Hitting_AB	3.708	3.000	-1.708	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.229	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.315	0.000	-0.315	0.000
predicted_BB	0.167	2.000	2.000	Hitting_BB	0.167	0.000	1.833	2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.042	0.000	-0.042	0.000
predicted_H	0.720	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.167	0.000	-1.167	0.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.329	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.351	0.250	0.149	0.250
predicted_R	0.792	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.792	0.000	-0.792	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.042	0.000	-0.042	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.296	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.449	0.000	-0.449	0.000
predicted_SO	0.833	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.833	1.000	0.167	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.708	-
predicted_AVG	0.229	-
predicted_BB	0.167	-
predicted_H	0.720	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.329	-
predicted_R	0.792	-
predicted_RBI	0.180	-
predicted_SLG	0.296	-
predicted_SO	0.833	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.081	-0.044
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.512	-0.196
predicted_AVG	0.229	0.000
predicted_BB	0.292	0.125
predicted_H	0.760	0.040
predicted_HBP	0.138	-
predicted_HR	0.055	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.329	-0.000
predicted_R	0.696	-0.096
predicted_RBI	0.189	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.296	0.000
predicted_SO	0.711	-0.122

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.205 HR/AB=0.015

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-2.000
BB	2.000	2.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 24

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	0.1250	0.2632	0.1250	0.1250	0.0000	0.0000	0.1250	0.1875
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	11.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	9.000	4.000	6.000	0.3143	0.4000	0.4286	0.3143	0.0286	0.0857	0.1143	0.1714
season	0.20	24	-	89.000	28.000	3.000	3.000	12.000	19.000	4.000	20.000	0.3146	0.3511	0.4494	0.3146	0.0337	0.1348	0.0449	0.2247

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0570
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.4070
predicted_AVG	0.2292
predicted_BB	0.3590
predicted_H	0.7810
predicted_HBP	0.1380
predicted_HR	0.0570
predicted_OBP	0.3287
predicted_R	0.6440
predicted_RBI	0.1940
predicted_SLG	0.2961
predicted_SO	0.6450

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1250	0.0570	0.0808	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7080	3.4070	3.5124	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2290	0.2292	0.2291	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1670	0.3590	0.2918	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7200	0.7810	0.7597	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1380	0.1380	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0570	0.0546	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3290	0.3287	0.3288	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7920	0.6440	0.6958	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1800	0.1940	0.1891	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2960	0.2961	0.2961	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8330	0.6450	0.7108	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	24
Season rows before report date	24
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	24
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.315

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260503_ARI@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	699912
playerID	699912
playerName	Jose Fernandez
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	ARI
teamID	1

Jorge Barrosa (678489) · BATTER · CF · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 18

All-history rows before 20260508: 18

System season_avg: 0.2100

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2097

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_3B	0.056	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_AB	3.444	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.444	3.000	0.556	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.165	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.210	0.000	-0.210	0.000
predicted_BB	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.470	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.722	0.000	-0.722	0.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.219	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.258	0.000	-0.258	0.000
predicted_R	0.444	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.444	0.000	-0.444	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.278	0.000	-0.278	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.303	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.387	0.000	-0.387	0.000
predicted_SO	1.167	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.167	0.000	0.833	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.500	-
predicted_3B	0.056	-
predicted_AB	3.444	-
predicted_AVG	0.165	-
predicted_BB	0.167	-
predicted_H	0.470	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.219	-
predicted_R	0.444	-
predicted_RBI	0.180	-
predicted_SLG	0.303	-
predicted_SO	1.167	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.471	-0.029
predicted_3B	0.027	-0.029
predicted_AB	3.444	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.165	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.184	0.017
predicted_H	0.534	0.064
predicted_HBP	0.046	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.219	-0.000
predicted_R	0.480	0.036
predicted_RBI	0.203	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.303	0.000
predicted_SO	1.066	-0.101

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.44), rates preserved: AVG=0.155 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	2.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	0.1176	0.1667	0.2353	0.1177	0.0588	0.0588	0.2353
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	7.000	5.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	12.000	0.2000	0.2632	0.3429	0.2000	0.0571	0.0571	0.3429
season	0.20	18	-	62.000	13.000	9.000	1.000	5.000	8.000	3.000	21.000	0.2097	0.2576	0.3871	0.2097	0.0806	0.0484	0.3387

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.4550
predicted_3B	0.0110
predicted_AB	3.4440
predicted_AVG	0.1649
predicted_BB	0.1930
predicted_H	0.5680
predicted_HBP	0.0460
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.2187
predicted_R	0.5000
predicted_RBI	0.2160
predicted_SLG	0.3033
predicted_SO	1.0110

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.5000	0.4550	0.4708	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0560	0.0110	0.0267	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4440	3.4440	3.4440	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1650	0.1649	0.1649	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1670	0.1930	0.1839	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4700	0.5680	0.5337	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0460	0.0460	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2190	0.2187	0.2188	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4440	0.5000	0.4804	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1800	0.2160	0.2034	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3030	0.3033	0.3032	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1670	1.0110	1.0656	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260502_ARI@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	678489
playerID	678489
playerName	Jorge Barrosa
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	ARI
teamID	1

Adrian Del Castillo (680728) · BATTER · DH · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 18

All-history rows before 20260508: 18

System season_avg: 0.2000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.889	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.889	3.000	0.111	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.161	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.200	0.333	0.050	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.600	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.778	1.000	0.222	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.111	0.000	0.889	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.181	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.230	0.333	0.020	-0.083
predicted_R	0.333	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.590	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	0.722	1.000	1.278	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.224	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SLG	0.329	0.333	0.671	0.667
predicted_SO	1.278	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.278	1.000	-0.278	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.889	-
predicted_AVG	0.161	-
predicted_BB	0.167	-
predicted_H	0.600	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.181	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.590	-
predicted_SLG	0.224	-
predicted_SO	1.278	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.101	-0.066
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.784	-0.105
predicted_AVG	0.161	0.000
predicted_BB	0.124	-0.043
predicted_H	0.600	0.000
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.057	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.181	-0.000
predicted_R	0.203	-0.130
predicted_RBI	0.590	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.224	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.426	0.148

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.89), rates preserved: AVG=0.154 HR/AB=0.015

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 3.889

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	8.000	0.1667	0.1667	0.1667	0.1667	0.0000	0.1667	0.0000	0.4444
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	2.000	15.000	0.1316	0.1707	0.2368	0.1316	0.0263	0.1316	0.0526	0.3947
season	0.20	18	-	70.000	14.000	3.000	2.000	13.000	6.000	3.000	23.000	0.2000	0.2297	0.3286	0.2000	0.0286	0.1857	0.0429	0.3286

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0660
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7280
predicted_AVG	0.1611
predicted_BB	0.1010
predicted_H	0.6000
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0560
predicted_OBP	0.1807
predicted_R	0.1330
predicted_RBI	0.5900
predicted_SLG	0.2236
predicted_SO	1.5060

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.0660	0.1013	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8890	3.7280	3.7843	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1610	0.1611	0.1611	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1670	0.1010	0.1241	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6000	0.6000	0.6000	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0560	0.0574	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1810	0.1807	0.1808	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.1330	0.2030	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5900	0.5900	0.5900	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2240	0.2236	0.2237	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2780	1.5060	1.4262	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.2

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260507_PIT@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	680728
playerID	680728
playerName	Adrian Del Castillo
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	ARI
teamID	1

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (666971) · BATTER · LF · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 13

All-history rows before 20260508: 13

System season_avg: 0.2550

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2553

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.154	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.615	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.615	3.000	-0.615	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.368	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.255	0.333	-0.255	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.462	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.462	0.000	0.538	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.923	1.000	-0.923	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.465	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.340	0.333	-0.090	-0.083
predicted_R	0.308	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.308	0.000	-0.308	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.308	0.000	-0.308	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.426	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.298	0.333	-0.298	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.692	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.692	1.000	0.308	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.154	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.615	-
predicted_AVG	0.368	-
predicted_BB	0.462	-
predicted_H	1.200	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.465	-
predicted_R	0.308	-
predicted_RBI	0.250	-
predicted_SLG	0.426	-
predicted_SO	0.692	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.179	0.025
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.432	-0.183
predicted_AVG	0.368	0.000
predicted_BB	0.582	0.120
predicted_H	1.218	0.018
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.465	0.000
predicted_R	0.338	0.030
predicted_RBI	0.253	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.426	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.819	0.127

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.62), rates preserved: AVG=0.337 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	5.000	0.4667	0.5789	0.5333	0.4667	0.0667	0.2667	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	11.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	5.000	8.000	0.3056	0.3902	0.3611	0.3056	0.0833	0.1389	0.2222
season	0.20	13	-	47.000	12.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	6.000	9.000	0.2553	0.3396	0.2979	0.2553	0.0851	0.1277	0.1915

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1930
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.3330
predicted_AVG	0.3680
predicted_BB	0.6470
predicted_H	1.2270
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.4650
predicted_R	0.3540
predicted_RBI	0.2540
predicted_SLG	0.4259
predicted_SO	0.8870

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1540	0.1930	0.1794	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6150	3.3330	3.4317	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3680	0.3680	0.3680	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4620	0.6470	0.5823	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2000	1.2270	1.2176	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4650	0.4650	0.4650	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3080	0.3540	0.3379	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2500	0.2540	0.2526	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4260	0.4259	0.4259	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6920	0.8870	0.8187	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.255

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260506_PIT@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	666971
playerID	666971
playerName	Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	ARI
teamID	1

Ryne Nelson (669194) · PITCHER · Starter · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 7

All-history rows before 20260508: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	3.286	1.000	-1.286	1.000
predicted_IP	4.100	4.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.143	5.200	-0.043	-1.100
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_SO	4.000	4.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 4.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	22.000	17.000	27.000	7.000	21.000	3.000	6.9545	1.5455	0.7727	1.2273	0.3182	0.9546	0.1364
last_10	0.35	7	31.100	23.000	32.000	13.000	28.000	7.000	6.6064	1.4362	0.7340	1.0213	0.4149	0.8936	0.2234
season	0.20	7	31.100	23.000	32.000	13.000	28.000	7.000	6.6064	1.4362	0.7340	1.0213	0.4149	0.8936	0.2234

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.6090
predicted_ER	3.2560
predicted_ERA	6.7630
predicted_H	4.8270
predicted_HR	0.7980
predicted_IP	4.1000
predicted_SO	3.9910
predicted_WHIP	1.4854

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	1.6090	1.7458	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	3.2560	2.8164	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	6.7630	6.7630	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	4.8270	4.5375	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.7980	0.5187	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.1000	4.1000	4.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	3.9910	3.6441	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4854	1.4854	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.1
H	4
R	2
ER	2
BB	2
SO	3
HR	0
BF	21
Pitches	88

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	23
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	6.61
Pitching_Flyouts	9
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.2
Pitching_Pitches	84
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	4
Pitching_Strikes	57
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260502_ARI@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	669194
playerID	669194
playerName	Ryne Nelson
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	ARI
teamID	1

Kevin Ginkel (656464) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 1

All-history rows before 20260508: 1

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.000	1.000	0.200	0.200
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP
last_5	0.45	1	1.000	1.000	2.000	9.0000	2.0000	1.0000	2.0000
last_10	0.35	1	1.000	1.000	2.000	9.0000	2.0000	1.0000	2.0000
season	0.20	1	1.000	1.000	2.000	9.0000	2.0000	1.0000	2.0000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.0000
predicted_ER	1.0000
predicted_ERA	9.0000
predicted_H	2.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.0000
predicted_WHIP	2.0000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	1.0000	0.6500	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	9.0000	9.0000	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	2.0000	1.3000	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.0000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	2.0000	2.0000	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	9.00
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	21
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260327_ARI@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	656464
playerID	656464
playerName	Kevin Ginkel
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ARI
teamID	1

Juan Morillo (666661) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 2

All-history rows before 20260508: 2

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.000	2.000	1.000	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.600	0.200	0.500	0.900
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	2	1.200	2.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	10.8000	2.4000	1.2000	1.2000	1.2000	0.6000	0.6000
last_10	0.35	2	1.200	2.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	10.8000	2.4000	1.2000	1.2000	1.2000	0.6000	0.6000
season	0.20	2	1.200	2.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	10.8000	2.4000	1.2000	1.2000	1.2000	0.6000	0.6000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.8000
predicted_ER	0.8000
predicted_ERA	10.8000
predicted_H	0.8000
predicted_HR	0.4000
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.4000
predicted_WHIP	2.4000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.8000	0.5200	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.8000	1.2200	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	10.8000	10.8000	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	0.8000	1.9200	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.4000	0.2600	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	0.2000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.4000	0.6100	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	2.4000	2.4000	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	4
R	2
ER	2
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	7
Pitches	23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	10.80
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	22
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L, BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260328_ARI@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	666661
playerID	666661
playerName	Juan Morillo
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ARI
teamID	1

Paul Sewald (623149) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 1

All-history rows before 20260508: 1

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.100	0.100	1.000	1.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP
last_5	0.45	1	0.100
last_10	0.35	1	0.100
season	0.20	1	0.100

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.0000
predicted_ER	0.0000
predicted_ERA	0.0000
predicted_H	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	0.1000
predicted_SO	0.0000
predicted_WHIP	0.0000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	0.1000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	12

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	1
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.00
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	5
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	5
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260328_ARI@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	623149
playerID	623149
playerName	Paul Sewald
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ARI
teamID	1

Jonathan Loáisiga (642528) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 2

All-history rows before 20260508: 2

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000
predicted_IP	0.100	0.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.050	1.000	-0.950	-0.900
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 0.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total H	Total SO	WHIP	H_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	2	2.100	1.000	2.000	0.4286	0.4286	0.8571
last_10	0.35	2	2.100	1.000	2.000	0.4286	0.4286	0.8571
season	0.20	2	2.100	1.000	2.000	0.4286	0.4286	0.8571

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.0000
predicted_ER	0.0000
predicted_ERA	0.0000
predicted_H	0.5710
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.1430
predicted_WHIP	0.4286

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.0000	0.7000	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	0.5710	1.4211	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	1.1000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1430	1.0930	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.4286	0.4286	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.1
H	3
R	2
ER	2
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.00
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260328_ARI@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	642528
playerID	642528
playerName	Jonathan Loáisiga
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ARI
teamID	1

20260508_NYY@MIL

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 4, "confidence": 0.631643370065269, "home_win_probability": 0.36835662993473095, "away_win_probability": 0.631643370065269, "predicted_score_text": "NYY 7 - 4 MIL", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to final winner probability with starter-quality caps.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "predicted_score_text": "NYY 5 - 4 MIL", "confidence": 0.631643370065269, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score", "final_prediction_synced": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "NYY 5 - 4 MIL", "winner": "NYY"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "NYY 7 - 4 MIL", "winner": "NYY"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 2, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 2, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"}}

Away Team: NYY

Spencer Jones (682987) · BATTER · DH · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 0

All-history rows before 20260508: 0

System season_avg: 0.0000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): -

Diff (system - data): -

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	-	-	-	-
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	-	-	-	-
predicted_AB	0.000	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	-	-	-	-
predicted_AVG	0.000	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	-	-	-	-
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	-	-	-	-
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	-	-	-	-
predicted_H	0.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	-	-	-	-
predicted_HR	0.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	-	-	-	-
predicted_OBP	0.000	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	-	-	-	-
predicted_R	0.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	-	-	-	-
predicted_RBI	0.000	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	-	-	-	-
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	-	-	-	-
predicted_SLG	0.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SLG	-	-	-	-
predicted_SO	0.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	-	-	-	-

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw XGBoost model output

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	0.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.000	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.000	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.000	-
predicted_SLG	0.000	-
predicted_SO	0.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.472	2.472
predicted_AVG	0.000	0.000
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.000	0.000
predicted_R	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.000	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.47), rates preserved: AVG=0.000 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 0

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Total PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
last_10	0.35	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
season	0.20	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.8030
predicted_BB	0.0000
predicted_H	0.0000
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_R	0.0000
predicted_RBI	0.0000
predicted_SO	0.0000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	0.0000	3.8030	2.4720	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.0000	-	0.0000	model_only
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.0000	-	0.0000	model_only
predicted_R	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.0000	-	0.0000	model_only
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	0
Season rows before report date	0
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	0
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.0

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

No historical data found for this player before report date.

Trent Grisham (663757) · BATTER · CF · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 31

All-history rows before 20260508: 31

System season_avg: 0.1770

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1770

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.194	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.194	1.000	-0.194	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.032	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.032	0.000	-0.032	0.000
predicted_AB	3.650	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.645	5.000	-0.645	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.227	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.177	0.600	-0.177	-0.600
predicted_BB	0.710	2.000	2.000	Hitting_BB	0.710	0.000	1.290	2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.032	0.000	-0.032	0.000
predicted_H	0.830	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.645	3.000	-0.645	-3.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.097	0.000	-0.097	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.299	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.307	0.600	0.093	-0.200
predicted_R	0.677	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.677	2.000	-0.677	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.750	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.581	3.000	-0.581	-3.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.065	1.000	-0.065	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.394	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.327	0.800	-0.327	-0.800
predicted_SO	0.710	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.710	0.000	0.290	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.194	-
predicted_3B	0.032	-
predicted_AB	3.650	-
predicted_AVG	0.227	-
predicted_BB	0.710	-
predicted_H	0.830	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.299	-
predicted_R	0.677	-
predicted_RBI	0.750	-
predicted_SLG	0.394	-
predicted_SO	0.710	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.379	0.185
predicted_3B	0.016	-0.016
predicted_AB	3.831	0.181
predicted_AVG	0.227	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.552	-0.158
predicted_H	0.870	0.040
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.053	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.299	0.000
predicted_R	0.820	0.143
predicted_RBI	0.788	0.038
predicted_SLG	0.394	0.000
predicted_SO	0.552	-0.158

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.83), rates preserved: AVG=0.227 HR/AB=0.014

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	2.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	5.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	5.000	5.000	2.000	2.000	0.2500	0.3043	0.4000	0.2500	0.0000	0.2500	0.1000	0.1000
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	9.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	7.000	9.000	4.000	4.000	0.2250	0.2889	0.4250	0.2250	0.0250	0.1750	0.1000	0.1000
season	0.20	31	-	113.000	20.000	6.000	1.000	3.000	18.000	21.000	22.000	22.000	0.1770	0.3066	0.3274	0.1770	0.0266	0.1593	0.1947	0.1947

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.4790
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.9290
predicted_AVG	0.2267
predicted_BB	0.4670
predicted_H	0.8910
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0550
predicted_OBP	0.2994
predicted_R	0.8970
predicted_RBI	0.8080
predicted_SLG	0.3942
predicted_SO	0.4670

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1940	0.4790	0.3793	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0320	0.0070	0.0158	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6500	3.9290	3.8314	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2270	0.2267	0.2268	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7100	0.4670	0.5521	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8300	0.8910	0.8697	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0550	0.0533	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2990	0.2994	0.2993	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6770	0.8970	0.8200	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7500	0.8080	0.7877	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3940	0.3942	0.3941	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7100	0.4670	0.5521	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.177

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.6
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260507_TEX@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	663757
playerID	663757
playerName	Trent Grisham
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	NYY
teamID	19

Ryan McMahon (641857) · BATTER · 3B · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 25

All-history rows before 20260508: 25

System season_avg: 0.2050

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2048

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.080	0.000	-0.080	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.320	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.320	3.000	-0.320	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.308	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.205	0.000	-0.205	0.000
predicted_BB	0.280	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.280	0.000	0.720	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.840	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.680	0.000	-0.680	0.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.080	0.000	-0.080	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.320	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.267	0.000	-0.017	0.250
predicted_R	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.320	0.000	-0.320	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.470	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.360	0.000	-0.360	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.040	0.000	-0.040	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.492	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.301	0.000	-0.301	0.000
predicted_SO	1.120	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.120	1.000	0.880	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.080	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.320	-
predicted_AVG	0.308	-
predicted_BB	0.280	-
predicted_H	0.840	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.320	-
predicted_R	0.320	-
predicted_RBI	0.470	-
predicted_SLG	0.492	-
predicted_SO	1.120	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.198	0.118
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.570	0.250
predicted_AVG	0.308	0.000
predicted_BB	0.138	-0.142
predicted_H	1.036	0.196
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.126	0.026
predicted_OBP	0.320	0.000
predicted_R	0.497	0.177
predicted_RBI	0.578	0.108
predicted_SLG	0.492	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.026	-0.094

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.57), rates preserved: AVG=0.290 HR/AB=0.035

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 25

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	0.000	4.000	0.3684	0.3684	0.6316	0.3684	0.0526	0.2105	0.0000	0.2105
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	11.000	2.000	1.000	6.000	5.000	0.000	11.000	0.2895	0.2895	0.4211	0.2895	0.0263	0.1579	0.0000	0.2895
season	0.20	25	-	83.000	17.000	2.000	2.000	9.000	8.000	7.000	28.000	0.2048	0.2667	0.3012	0.2048	0.0241	0.1084	0.0843	0.3373

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2620
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7040
predicted_AVG	0.3081
predicted_BB	0.0620
predicted_H	1.1410
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1400
predicted_OBP	0.3204
predicted_R	0.5930
predicted_RBI	0.6360
predicted_SLG	0.4918
predicted_SO	0.9760

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0800	0.2620	0.1983	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3200	3.7040	3.5696	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3080	0.3081	0.3081	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2800	0.0620	0.1383	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8400	1.1410	1.0356	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1400	0.1260	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3200	0.3204	0.3203	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3200	0.5930	0.4975	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4700	0.6360	0.5779	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4920	0.4918	0.4919	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1200	0.9760	1.0264	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	25
Season rows before report date	25
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	25
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.205

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260506_TEX@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	641857
playerID	641857
playerName	Ryan McMahon
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	NYY
teamID	19

José Caballero (676609) · BATTER · SS · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 36

All-history rows before 20260508: 36

System season_avg: 0.2560

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2560

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.472	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.472	2.000	-0.472	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.201	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.256	0.000	0.077	0.333
predicted_BB	0.167	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.167	0.000	0.833	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_H	0.630	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.889	0.000	0.111	1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.111	0.000	0.889	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.308	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.311	0.333	0.189	0.167
predicted_R	0.472	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.472	0.000	0.528	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.220	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.361	0.000	0.639	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.361	0.000	-0.361	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.302	1.333	1.333	Hitting_SLG	0.400	0.000	0.933	1.333
predicted_SO	0.750	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.750	0.000	-0.750	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.472	-
predicted_AVG	0.201	-
predicted_BB	0.167	-
predicted_H	0.630	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.308	-
predicted_R	0.472	-
predicted_RBI	0.220	-
predicted_SLG	0.302	-
predicted_SO	0.750	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.161	-0.006
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.330	-0.142
predicted_AVG	0.201	0.000
predicted_BB	0.244	0.077
predicted_H	0.646	0.016
predicted_HBP	0.219	-
predicted_HR	0.054	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.308	0.000
predicted_R	0.577	0.105
predicted_RBI	0.227	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.302	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.506	-0.244

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.47), rates preserved: AVG=0.186 HR/AB=0.016

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	0.1875	0.3158	0.2500	0.1875	0.0000	0.0625	0.1250	0.0625
last_10	0.35	10	-	32.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	2.000	4.000	0.1875	0.2973	0.3125	0.1875	0.0312	0.0625	0.0625	0.1250
season	0.20	36	-	125.000	32.000	6.000	4.000	13.000	17.000	6.000	27.000	0.2560	0.3111	0.4000	0.2560	0.0320	0.1040	0.0480	0.2160

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1580
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.2540
predicted_AVG	0.2012
predicted_BB	0.2850
predicted_H	0.6550
predicted_HBP	0.2190
predicted_HR	0.0560
predicted_OBP	0.3084
predicted_R	0.6330
predicted_RBI	0.2300
predicted_SLG	0.3019
predicted_SO	0.3750

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.1580	0.1612	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4720	3.2540	3.3303	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2010	0.2012	0.2011	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1670	0.2850	0.2437	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6300	0.6550	0.6462	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.2190	0.2190	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0560	0.0539	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3080	0.3084	0.3083	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4720	0.6330	0.5766	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2200	0.2300	0.2265	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3020	0.3019	0.3019	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7500	0.3750	0.5062	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.256

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260506_TEX@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	676609
playerID	676609
playerName	José Caballero
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	NYY
teamID	19

Ben Rice (700250) · BATTER · 1B · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 29

All-history rows before 20260508: 29

System season_avg: 0.3370

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3365

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.310	1.000	-0.310	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.586	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.586	2.000	0.414	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.405	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.337	1.000	-0.087	-0.750
predicted_BB	0.759	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.759	0.000	0.241	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.400	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.207	2.000	-0.207	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.370	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.379	1.000	0.621	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.475	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.453	1.000	-0.053	-0.600
predicted_R	0.966	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.966	2.000	0.034	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.800	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.862	1.000	0.138	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.069	0.000	-0.069	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.799	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SLG	0.740	3.000	0.260	-2.000
predicted_SO	1.034	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.034	0.000	-1.034	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.310	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.586	-
predicted_AVG	0.405	-
predicted_BB	0.759	-
predicted_H	1.400	-
predicted_HR	0.370	-
predicted_OBP	0.475	-
predicted_R	0.966	-
predicted_RBI	0.800	-
predicted_SLG	0.799	-
predicted_SO	1.034	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.275	-0.035
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.639	0.053
predicted_AVG	0.405	0.000
predicted_BB	0.595	-0.164
predicted_H	1.457	0.057
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.387	0.017
predicted_OBP	0.475	-0.000
predicted_R	0.902	-0.064
predicted_RBI	0.831	0.030
predicted_SLG	0.799	0.000
predicted_SO	0.751	-0.283

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.64), rates preserved: AVG=0.400 HR/AB=0.106

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	2.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	2.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	8.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	0.4444	0.5000	0.8333	0.4444	0.1111	0.2222	0.1111	0.1111
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	15.000	3.000	4.000	9.000	9.000	5.000	6.000	0.3947	0.4545	0.7895	0.3947	0.1053	0.2368	0.1316	0.1579
season	0.20	29	-	104.000	35.000	9.000	11.000	25.000	28.000	22.000	30.000	0.3365	0.4531	0.7404	0.3365	0.1058	0.2404	0.2115	0.2885

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2560
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.6670
predicted_AVG	0.4054
predicted_BB	0.5070
predicted_H	1.4870
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.3960
predicted_OBP	0.4747
predicted_R	0.8680
predicted_RBI	0.8470
predicted_SLG	0.7994
predicted_SO	0.5980

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3100	0.2560	0.2749	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5860	3.6670	3.6387	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.4050	0.4054	0.4053	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7590	0.5070	0.5952	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.4000	1.4870	1.4566	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3700	0.3960	0.3869	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4750	0.4747	0.4748	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.9660	0.8680	0.9023	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.8000	0.8470	0.8305	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.7990	0.7994	0.7993	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0340	0.5980	0.7506	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.337

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	1.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	6
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260503_BAL@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	700250
playerID	700250
playerName	Ben Rice
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	NYY
teamID	19

Jazz Chisholm Jr. (665862) · BATTER · 2B · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 35

All-history rows before 20260508: 35

System season_avg: 0.2120

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2121

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.771	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.771	5.000	-0.771	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.203	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.212	0.200	0.121	0.133
predicted_BB	0.429	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.429	0.000	0.571	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.086	1.000	-0.086	-1.000
predicted_H	0.730	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.800	1.000	0.200	0.000
predicted_HR	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.114	0.000	-0.114	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.273	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.295	0.200	0.205	0.300
predicted_R	0.486	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.486	0.000	0.514	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.371	0.000	-0.371	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.357	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.341	0.200	-0.008	0.133
predicted_SO	1.114	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.114	1.000	-0.114	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.771	-
predicted_AVG	0.203	-
predicted_BB	0.429	-
predicted_H	0.730	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.273	-
predicted_R	0.486	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.357	-
predicted_SO	1.114	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.068	-0.075
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.763	-0.008
predicted_AVG	0.203	0.000
predicted_BB	0.414	-0.015
predicted_H	0.753	0.023
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.178	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.273	0.000
predicted_R	0.580	0.094
predicted_RBI	0.389	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.357	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.927	-0.187

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.77), rates preserved: AVG=0.200 HR/AB=0.047

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	4.000	0.2105	0.2727	0.3684	0.2105	0.0526	0.1053	0.1053	0.2105
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	7.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	5.000	4.000	7.000	0.1892	0.2619	0.3514	0.1892	0.0541	0.1081	0.1081	0.1892
season	0.20	35	-	132.000	28.000	5.000	4.000	13.000	17.000	15.000	39.000	0.2121	0.2953	0.3409	0.2121	0.0303	0.0985	0.1136	0.2954

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0280
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7590
predicted_AVG	0.2034
predicted_BB	0.4060
predicted_H	0.7650
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.1830
predicted_OBP	0.2734
predicted_R	0.6310
predicted_RBI	0.3940
predicted_SLG	0.3569
predicted_SO	0.8270

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.0280	0.0682	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7710	3.7590	3.7632	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2030	0.2034	0.2033	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4290	0.4060	0.4141	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7300	0.7650	0.7528	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.1830	0.1784	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2730	0.2734	0.2733	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4860	0.6310	0.5802	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.3940	0.3891	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3570	0.3569	0.3569	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1140	0.8270	0.9274	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.212

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	1
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260507_TEX@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	665862
playerID	665862
playerName	Jazz Chisholm Jr.
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	NYY
teamID	19

Cody Bellinger (641355) · BATTER · LF · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 36

All-history rows before 20260508: 36

System season_avg: 0.2950

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2955

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.278	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.278	0.000	-0.278	0.000
predicted_3B	0.083	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.083	1.000	-0.083	-1.000
predicted_AB	3.667	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.667	4.000	0.333	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.406	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.295	0.750	-0.295	-0.750
predicted_BB	0.639	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.639	1.000	-0.639	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_H	1.440	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.083	3.000	-1.083	-3.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.139	0.000	-0.139	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.480	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.392	0.800	-0.392	-0.800
predicted_R	0.667	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.667	2.000	0.333	-1.000
predicted_RBI	1.310	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.722	2.000	0.278	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.785	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.530	1.250	-0.530	-1.250
predicted_SO	0.556	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.556	0.000	-0.556	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.278	-
predicted_3B	0.083	-
predicted_AB	3.667	-
predicted_AVG	0.406	-
predicted_BB	0.639	-
predicted_H	1.440	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.480	-
predicted_R	0.667	-
predicted_RBI	1.310	-
predicted_SLG	0.785	-
predicted_SO	0.556	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.468	0.190
predicted_3B	0.204	0.121
predicted_AB	3.677	0.010
predicted_AVG	0.406	0.000
predicted_BB	0.657	0.018
predicted_H	1.477	0.037
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.094	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.480	0.000
predicted_R	0.632	-0.035
predicted_RBI	1.341	0.030
predicted_SLG	0.785	0.000
predicted_SO	0.377	-0.179

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.68), rates preserved: AVG=0.402 HR/AB=0.026

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	2.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	2.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	1.000	1.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	8.000	3.000	2.000	0.000	8.000	3.000	4.000	0.000	0.4444	0.5217	0.8333	0.4444	0.0000	0.4444	0.2222	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	16.000	7.000	2.000	2.000	14.000	6.000	5.000	5.000	0.4211	0.4773	0.8684	0.4210	0.0526	0.3684	0.1316	0.1316
season	0.20	36	-	132.000	39.000	10.000	3.000	5.000	26.000	24.000	23.000	20.000	0.2955	0.3924	0.5303	0.2954	0.0379	0.1970	0.1742	0.1515

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.5700
predicted_3B	0.2690
predicted_AB	3.6830
predicted_AVG	0.4065
predicted_BB	0.6660
predicted_H	1.4970
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0960
predicted_OBP	0.4803
predicted_R	0.6140
predicted_RBI	1.3570
predicted_SLG	0.7850
predicted_SO	0.2810

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2780	0.5700	0.4678	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0830	0.2690	0.2039	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6670	3.6830	3.6774	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.4060	0.4065	0.4063	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6390	0.6660	0.6566	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.4400	1.4970	1.4771	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.0960	0.0939	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4800	0.4803	0.4802	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6670	0.6140	0.6325	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	1.3100	1.3570	1.3405	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.7850	0.7850	0.7850	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5560	0.2810	0.3773	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	1
HBP	0
season_avg	0.295

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	1
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.75
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF-LF
gameID	20260507_TEX@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	641355
playerID	641355
playerName	Cody Bellinger
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	NYY
teamID	19

Austin Wells (669224) · BATTER · C · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 28

All-history rows before 20260508: 28

System season_avg: 0.1980

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1977

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.036	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.036	0.000	-0.036	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.071	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.071	3.000	0.929	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.193	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.198	0.333	0.052	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.643	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.643	0.000	-0.643	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.607	1.000	0.393	0.000
predicted_HR	0.070	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.107	0.000	0.893	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.318	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.333	-0.083	-0.083
predicted_R	0.357	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.357	0.000	0.643	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.110	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.179	0.000	0.821	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.280	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SLG	0.314	0.333	0.686	0.667
predicted_SO	0.750	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.750	1.000	-0.750	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.036	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.071	-
predicted_AVG	0.193	-
predicted_BB	0.643	-
predicted_H	0.500	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.318	-
predicted_R	0.357	-
predicted_RBI	0.110	-
predicted_SLG	0.280	-
predicted_SO	0.750	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.018	-0.018
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.219	0.148
predicted_AVG	0.193	0.000
predicted_BB	0.622	-0.021
predicted_H	0.589	0.089
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.085	0.015
predicted_OBP	0.318	0.000
predicted_R	0.538	0.181
predicted_RBI	0.131	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.280	0.000
predicted_SO	0.912	0.162

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.22), rates preserved: AVG=0.183 HR/AB=0.026

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	3.000	6.000	0.1765	0.3000	0.1765	0.1765	0.0000	0.0000	0.1765	0.3529
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	7.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	6.000	6.000	9.000	0.2121	0.3333	0.3939	0.2121	0.0606	0.0909	0.1818	0.2727
season	0.20	28	-	86.000	17.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	10.000	18.000	21.000	0.1977	0.3333	0.3140	0.1977	0.0349	0.0581	0.2093	0.2442

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0080
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.2990
predicted_AVG	0.1932
predicted_BB	0.6100
predicted_H	0.6370
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0930
predicted_OBP	0.3183
predicted_R	0.6360
predicted_RBI	0.1430
predicted_SLG	0.2801
predicted_SO	1.0000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0360	0.0080	0.0178	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0710	3.2990	3.2192	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1930	0.1932	0.1931	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6430	0.6100	0.6216	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5000	0.6370	0.5891	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0930	0.0849	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3180	0.3183	0.3182	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3570	0.6360	0.5383	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1100	0.1430	0.1314	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2800	0.2801	0.2801	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7500	1.0000	0.9125	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.198

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260506_TEX@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	669224
playerID	669224
playerName	Austin Wells
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	NYY
teamID	19

Aaron Judge (592450) · BATTER · RF · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 38

All-history rows before 20260508: 38

System season_avg: 0.2700

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2701

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.158	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.158	0.000	-0.158	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.605	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.605	5.000	0.395	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.344	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.270	0.200	-0.020	0.050
predicted_BB	0.737	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.737	0.000	0.263	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_H	1.200	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.974	1.000	0.026	0.000
predicted_HR	0.480	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.395	0.000	0.605	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.447	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.401	0.200	-0.001	0.200
predicted_R	0.895	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.895	0.000	0.105	1.000
predicted_RBI	1.140	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.763	1.000	0.237	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.132	0.000	-0.132	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.814	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SLG	0.642	0.200	0.358	0.800
predicted_SO	1.237	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.237	1.000	-0.237	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.158	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.605	-
predicted_AVG	0.344	-
predicted_BB	0.737	-
predicted_H	1.200	-
predicted_HR	0.480	-
predicted_OBP	0.447	-
predicted_R	0.895	-
predicted_RBI	1.140	-
predicted_SLG	0.814	-
predicted_SO	1.237	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.203	0.045
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.742	0.137
predicted_AVG	0.344	0.000
predicted_BB	0.691	-0.046
predicted_H	1.273	0.073
predicted_HBP	0.047	-
predicted_HR	0.507	0.027
predicted_OBP	0.447	0.000
predicted_R	1.053	0.158
predicted_RBI	1.209	0.069
predicted_SLG	0.814	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.243	0.006

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.74), rates preserved: AVG=0.340 HR/AB=0.136

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	7.000	1.000	3.000	8.000	6.000	3.000	6.000	0.3500	0.4348	0.8500	0.3500	0.1500	0.4000	0.1500	0.3000
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	14.000	3.000	5.000	11.000	12.000	7.000	13.000	0.3784	0.4889	0.8649	0.3784	0.1351	0.2973	0.1892	0.3513
season	0.20	38	-	137.000	37.000	6.000	15.000	29.000	34.000	28.000	47.000	0.2701	0.4012	0.6423	0.2701	0.1095	0.2117	0.2044	0.3431

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2280
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.8160
predicted_AVG	0.3440
predicted_BB	0.6660
predicted_H	1.3130
predicted_HBP	0.0470
predicted_HR	0.5220
predicted_OBP	0.4470
predicted_R	1.1380
predicted_RBI	1.2460
predicted_SLG	0.8137
predicted_SO	1.2460

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1580	0.2280	0.2035	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6050	3.8160	3.7421	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3440	0.3440	0.3440	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7370	0.6660	0.6908	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2000	1.3130	1.2734	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0470	0.0470	form_only
predicted_HR	0.4800	0.5220	0.5073	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4470	0.4470	0.4470	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8950	1.1380	1.0529	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	1.1400	1.2460	1.2089	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.8140	0.8137	0.8138	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2370	1.2460	1.2429	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.27

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260507_TEX@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	592450
playerID	592450
playerName	Aaron Judge
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	NYY
teamID	19

Max Fried (608331) · PITCHER · Starter · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 8

All-history rows before 20260508: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.750	3.000	0.250	-1.000
predicted_IP	4.200	4.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	6.438	5.100	-2.237	-0.900
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	-	Pitching_SO	5.375	6.000	-1.375	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 4.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	32.200	11.000	22.000	10.000	29.000	1.000	3.0306	0.9796	0.3367	0.6735	0.3061	0.8878	0.0306
last_10	0.35	8	52.200	14.000	32.000	15.000	43.000	1.000	2.3924	0.8924	0.2658	0.6076	0.2848	0.8165	0.0190
season	0.20	8	52.200	14.000	32.000	15.000	43.000	1.000	2.3924	0.8924	0.2658	0.6076	0.2848	0.8165	0.0190

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.9630
predicted_ER	1.9850
predicted_ERA	2.6796
predicted_H	4.2480
predicted_HR	0.1610
predicted_IP	6.2000
predicted_SO	5.6570
predicted_WHIP	0.9316

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	1.9630	1.9760	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	1.9850	1.9903	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.6796	2.6796	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	4.2480	4.1612	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.1610	0.4546	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.2000	6.2000	6.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	4.0000	5.6570	5.0770	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9316	0.9316	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.2
H	4
R	2
ER	2
BB	2
SO	4
HR	1
BF	24
Pitches	98

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	24
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	2.39
Pitching_Flyouts	5
Pitching_Groundouts	4
Pitching_H	6
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.1
Pitching_Pitches	107
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	6
Pitching_Strikes	63
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_BAL@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	608331
playerID	608331
playerName	Max Fried
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	NYY
teamID	19

David Bednar (670280) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 15

All-history rows before 20260508: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.400	1.000	-0.400	-1.000
predicted_IP	2.100	2.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.960	1.200	1.140	0.900
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.200	2.000	-1.200	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 2.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	2.000	6.000	0.000	5.000	3.1765	1.0588	0.3529	1.0588	0.0000	0.8823
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	4.000	11.000	2.000	13.000	3.6000	1.3000	0.4000	1.1000	0.2000	1.3000
season	0.20	15	15.100	6.000	18.000	5.000	18.000	3.5217	1.5000	0.3913	1.1739	0.3261	1.1739

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1350
predicted_ER	0.3770
predicted_ERA	3.3938
predicted_H	1.0960
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0870
predicted_WHIP	1.2315

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	0.1350	1.1377	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3770	0.2451	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3938	3.3938	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.0960	0.7124	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	2.1000	1.0000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.0870	0.7066	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2315	1.2315	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	3
SO	0
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	35

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	3.52
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	3
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.2
Pitching_Pitches	26
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	18
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_TEX@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	670280
playerID	670280
playerName	David Bednar
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYY
teamID	19

Fernando Cruz (518585) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 17

All-history rows before 20260508: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.235	0.000	-0.235	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.529	1.000	0.471	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.176	1.000	-1.176	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	0.000	4.000	2.000	5.000	0.000	0.0000	1.2857	0.0000	0.8571	0.4286	1.0714	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.100	3.000	10.000	6.000	12.000	2.000	3.2400	1.9200	0.3600	1.2000	0.7200	1.4400	0.2400
season	0.20	17	13.200	4.000	11.000	10.000	20.000	2.000	2.6341	1.5366	0.2927	0.8049	0.7317	1.4634	0.1463

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4830
predicted_ER	0.1510
predicted_ERA	1.6608
predicted_H	0.7890
predicted_HR	0.0930
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	1.0440
predicted_WHIP	1.5579

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4830	0.3140	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1510	0.0982	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.6608	1.6608	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.7890	0.8629	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0930	0.0605	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.0440	0.6786	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5579	1.5579	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.63
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	26
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_TEX@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	518585
playerID	518585
playerName	Fernando Cruz
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYY
teamID	19

Tim Hill (657612) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 17

All-history rows before 20260508: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.118	0.000	1.882	2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.776	1.200	0.224	-0.200
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.412	1.000	1.588	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	0.000	5.000	0.000	3.000	0.000	0.0000	1.2500	0.0000	1.2500	0.0000	0.7500	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	2.000	9.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	1.8621	1.1379	0.2069	0.9310	0.2069	0.4138	0.1035
season	0.20	17	16.000	2.000	11.000	2.000	7.000	1.000	1.1250	0.8125	0.1250	0.6875	0.1250	0.4375	0.0625

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.0830
predicted_ER	0.0830
predicted_ERA	0.8767
predicted_H	0.8720
predicted_HR	0.0410
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.4840
predicted_WHIP	1.1233

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.0830	0.4039	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.0830	0.7540	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.8767	0.8767	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.8720	0.9168	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0410	0.3766	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.4840	1.0146	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1233	1.1233	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	2
ER	2
BB	1
SO	2
HR	1
BF	5
Pitches	27

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.13
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.2
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_TEX@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	657612
playerID	657612
playerName	Tim Hill
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYY
teamID	19

Home Team: MIL

Jackson Chourio (694192) · BATTER · LF · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 2

All-history rows before 20260508: 2

System season_avg: 0.6670

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.6667

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	1.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	1.500	1.000	-1.500	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.510	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.500	5.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.667	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.667	0.400	-0.667	-0.400
predicted_BB	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	3.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	3.000	2.000	-3.000	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.700	0.200	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.700	0.400	-0.500	-0.200
predicted_R	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	1.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	1.000	0.600	-1.000	-0.600
predicted_SO	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.500	1.000	0.500	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	1.500	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.510	-
predicted_AVG	0.667	-
predicted_BB	0.500	-
predicted_H	3.010	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.700	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.500	-
predicted_SLG	1.000	-
predicted_SO	0.500	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	1.500	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.503	-0.006
predicted_AVG	0.667	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.500	0.000
predicted_H	3.003	-0.006
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.700	0.000
predicted_R	0.500	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.500	0.000
predicted_SLG	1.000	0.000
predicted_SO	0.500	0.000

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 5 (raw=4.51), rates preserved: AVG=0.666 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	2.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	5.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	3.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	2.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	3.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-2.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-3.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 4.510

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	2	-	9.000	6.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	0.6667	0.7000	1.0000	0.6667	0.1111	0.1111	0.1111
last_10	0.35	2	-	9.000	6.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	0.6667	0.7000	1.0000	0.6667	0.1111	0.1111	0.1111
season	0.20	2	-	9.000	6.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	0.6667	0.7000	1.0000	0.6667	0.1111	0.1111	0.1111

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	1.5000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.5000
predicted_AVG	0.6667
predicted_BB	0.5000
predicted_H	3.0000
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.7000
predicted_R	0.5000
predicted_RBI	0.5000
predicted_SLG	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.5000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	1.5000	1.5000	1.5000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.5100	4.5000	4.5035	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.6670	0.6667	0.6668	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5000	0.5000	0.5000	model_form_blend
predicted_H	3.0100	3.0000	3.0035	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.7000	0.7000	0.7000	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.5000	0.5000	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5000	0.5000	0.5000	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5000	0.5000	0.5000	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.667

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260506_MIL@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	694192
playerID	694192
playerName	Jackson Chourio
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	MIL
teamID	16

Gary Sánchez (596142) · BATTER · DH · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 20

All-history rows before 20260508: 20

System season_avg: 0.2120

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2121

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_3B	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_AB	3.300	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.300	4.000	0.700	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.201	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.212	0.250	0.288	0.250
predicted_BB	0.800	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.800	0.000	-0.800	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.640	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.700	1.000	1.300	1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.200	0.000	0.800	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.336	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.373	0.250	0.127	0.250
predicted_R	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	0.550	0.000	1.450	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.303	1.250	1.250	Hitting_SLG	0.455	0.250	0.795	1.000
predicted_SO	0.850	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.850	0.000	-0.850	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.100	-
predicted_3B	0.050	-
predicted_AB	3.300	-
predicted_AVG	0.201	-
predicted_BB	0.800	-
predicted_H	0.640	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.336	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.303	-
predicted_SO	0.850	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.129	0.029
predicted_3B	0.047	-0.003
predicted_AB	3.456	0.156
predicted_AVG	0.201	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.721	-0.079
predicted_H	0.686	0.046
predicted_HBP	0.045	-
predicted_HR	0.042	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.336	0.000
predicted_R	0.449	-0.051
predicted_RBI	0.451	0.031
predicted_SLG	0.303	0.000
predicted_SO	0.745	-0.105

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.46), rates preserved: AVG=0.199 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	0.2222	0.3333	0.2778	0.2222	0.0000	0.1111	0.1667	0.1667
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	5.000	4.000	7.000	7.000	0.1667	0.3182	0.2500	0.1667	0.0000	0.1389	0.1944	0.1944
season	0.20	20	-	66.000	14.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	11.000	10.000	16.000	17.000	0.2121	0.3735	0.4545	0.2121	0.0606	0.1667	0.2424	0.2576

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1440
predicted_3B	0.0450
predicted_AB	3.5400
predicted_AVG	0.2008
predicted_BB	0.6780
predicted_H	0.7110
predicted_HBP	0.0450
predicted_HR	0.0430
predicted_OBP	0.3361
predicted_R	0.4220
predicted_RBI	0.4670
predicted_SLG	0.3034
predicted_SO	0.6890

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1000	0.1440	0.1286	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0500	0.0450	0.0467	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3000	3.5400	3.4560	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2010	0.2008	0.2009	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.8000	0.6780	0.7207	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6400	0.7110	0.6862	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0450	0.0450	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0430	0.0420	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3360	0.3361	0.3361	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.4220	0.4493	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.4670	0.4506	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3030	0.3034	0.3033	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8500	0.6890	0.7453	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.212

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260503_MIL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	596142
playerID	596142
playerName	Gary Sánchez
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	MIL
teamID	16

Joey Ortiz (687401) · BATTER · SS · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 23

All-history rows before 20260508: 23

System season_avg: 0.1890

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1892

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.217	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.217	4.000	0.783	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.182	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.189	0.250	0.061	0.000
predicted_BB	0.348	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.348	0.000	-0.348	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.087	0.000	-0.087	0.000
predicted_H	0.480	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.609	1.000	0.391	0.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.265	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.265	0.250	-0.015	0.000
predicted_R	0.435	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.435	1.000	-0.435	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.550	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.348	0.000	-0.348	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.174	0.000	-0.174	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.182	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.189	0.250	0.061	0.000
predicted_SO	0.783	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.783	2.000	0.217	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.217	-
predicted_AVG	0.182	-
predicted_BB	0.348	-
predicted_H	0.480	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.265	-
predicted_R	0.435	-
predicted_RBI	0.550	-
predicted_SLG	0.182	-
predicted_SO	0.783	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.013	-0.204
predicted_AVG	0.182	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.371	0.023
predicted_H	0.511	0.031
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.265	0.000
predicted_R	0.393	-0.042
predicted_RBI	0.587	0.037
predicted_SLG	0.182	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.745	-0.038

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.22), rates preserved: AVG=0.159 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 23

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	3.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.2000	0.2353	0.2000	0.2000	0.2667	0.0667	0.2667
last_10	0.35	10	-	26.000	4.000	5.000	3.000	6.000	6.000	0.1538	0.3030	0.1538	0.1538	0.1923	0.2308	0.2308
season	0.20	23	-	74.000	14.000	8.000	10.000	8.000	18.000	0.1892	0.2651	0.1892	0.1892	0.1081	0.1081	0.2432

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.9030
predicted_AVG	0.1817
predicted_BB	0.3840
predicted_H	0.5280
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.2650
predicted_R	0.3700
predicted_RBI	0.6070
predicted_SLG	0.1817
predicted_SO	0.7240

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2170	2.9030	3.0129	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1820	0.1817	0.1818	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3480	0.3840	0.3714	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4800	0.5280	0.5112	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2650	0.2650	0.2650	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4350	0.3700	0.3927	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5500	0.6070	0.5871	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1820	0.1817	0.1818	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7830	0.7240	0.7447	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	23
Season rows before report date	23
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	23
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.189

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260506_MIL@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	687401
playerID	687401
playerName	Joey Ortiz
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	MIL
teamID	16

William Contreras (661388) · BATTER · C · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 32

All-history rows before 20260508: 32

System season_avg: 0.2880

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2879

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.219	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.219	0.000	-0.219	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.125	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.125	4.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.288	0.000	-0.288	0.000
predicted_BB	0.438	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.438	0.000	0.562	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.188	0.000	-1.188	0.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.094	0.000	-0.094	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.349	0.200	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.361	0.200	-0.161	0.000
predicted_R	0.656	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.656	1.000	-0.656	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.680	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.719	0.000	-0.719	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.343	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.409	0.000	-0.409	0.000
predicted_SO	0.500	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.500	1.000	1.500	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.219	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.125	-
predicted_AVG	0.286	-
predicted_BB	0.438	-
predicted_H	1.150	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.349	-
predicted_R	0.656	-
predicted_RBI	0.680	-
predicted_SLG	0.343	-
predicted_SO	0.500	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.129	-0.090
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.245	0.120
predicted_AVG	0.286	0.000
predicted_BB	0.339	-0.099
predicted_H	1.204	0.054
predicted_HBP	0.130	-
predicted_HR	0.053	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.349	-0.000
predicted_R	0.696	0.040
predicted_RBI	0.713	0.032
predicted_SLG	0.343	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.449	-0.051

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.25), rates preserved: AVG=0.284 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 4.125

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	22.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	0.2727	0.3333	0.2727	0.2727	0.0000	0.1364	0.0454	0.0909
last_10	0.35	10	-	43.000	13.000	1.000	1.000	9.000	9.000	3.000	4.000	0.3023	0.3617	0.3953	0.3023	0.0233	0.2093	0.0698	0.0930
season	0.20	32	-	132.000	38.000	7.000	3.000	23.000	21.000	14.000	16.000	0.2879	0.3605	0.4091	0.2879	0.0227	0.1742	0.1061	0.1212

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0810
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.3100
predicted_AVG	0.2861
predicted_BB	0.2850
predicted_H	1.2330
predicted_HBP	0.1300
predicted_HR	0.0550
predicted_OBP	0.3487
predicted_R	0.7170
predicted_RBI	0.7300
predicted_SLG	0.3429
predicted_SO	0.4210

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2190	0.0810	0.1293	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1250	4.3100	4.2452	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2860	0.2861	0.2861	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4380	0.2850	0.3386	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1500	1.2330	1.2040	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1300	0.1300	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0550	0.0533	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3490	0.3487	0.3488	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6560	0.7170	0.6956	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6800	0.7300	0.7125	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3430	0.3429	0.3429	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5000	0.4210	0.4486	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.288

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260506_MIL@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	661388
playerID	661388
playerName	William Contreras
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	MIL
teamID	16

Sal Frelick (686217) · BATTER · RF · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 30

All-history rows before 20260508: 30

System season_avg: 0.2100

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2095

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.069	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.621	2.000	2.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	5.000	-1.500	-3.000
predicted_AVG	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.210	0.400	-0.210	-0.400
predicted_BB	0.448	2.000	2.000	Hitting_BB	0.500	0.000	1.500	2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.033	0.000	-0.033	0.000
predicted_H	0.740	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.733	2.000	-0.733	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.321	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.309	0.400	0.191	0.100
predicted_R	0.552	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.533	1.000	-0.533	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.300	0.000	-0.300	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.033	0.000	-0.033	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.331	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.314	0.400	-0.314	-0.400
predicted_SO	0.448	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.433	0.000	0.567	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.069	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.621	-
predicted_AVG	0.250	-
predicted_BB	0.448	-
predicted_H	0.740	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.321	-
predicted_R	0.552	-
predicted_RBI	0.100	-
predicted_SLG	0.331	-
predicted_SO	0.448	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.033	-0.036
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.646	0.025
predicted_AVG	0.250	0.000
predicted_BB	0.400	-0.048
predicted_H	0.854	0.114
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.089	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.321	0.000
predicted_R	0.545	-0.007
predicted_RBI	0.114	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.331	0.000
predicted_SO	0.239	-0.209

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.65), rates preserved: AVG=0.234 HR/AB=0.024

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-2.000
BB	2.000	2.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	0.000	0.2632	0.3333	0.2632	0.2632	0.0000	0.0000	0.1053	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	9.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	3.000	1.000	0.2571	0.3158	0.4286	0.2571	0.0571	0.0571	0.0857	0.0286
season	0.20	29	-	105.000	22.000	2.000	3.000	7.000	16.000	13.000	13.000	0.2095	0.3025	0.3143	0.2095	0.0286	0.0667	0.1238	0.1238

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0140
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.6590
predicted_AVG	0.2503
predicted_BB	0.3740
predicted_H	0.9160
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.0940
predicted_OBP	0.3210
predicted_R	0.5410
predicted_RBI	0.1220
predicted_SLG	0.3313
predicted_SO	0.1270

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0690	0.0140	0.0333	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6210	3.6590	3.6457	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2500	0.2503	0.2502	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4480	0.3740	0.3999	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7400	0.9160	0.8544	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0940	0.0891	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3210	0.3210	0.3210	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5520	0.5410	0.5449	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1000	0.1220	0.1143	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3310	0.3313	0.3312	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4480	0.1270	0.2394	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260506_MIL@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	686217
playerID	686217
playerName	Sal Frelick
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	MIL
teamID	16

Luis Rengifo (650859) · BATTER · 3B · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 24

All-history rows before 20260508: 24

System season_avg: 0.1980

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1978

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.792	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.792	4.000	0.208	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.201	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.198	0.250	0.052	0.000
predicted_BB	0.292	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.292	0.000	-0.292	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.690	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.750	1.000	0.250	0.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.251	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.260	0.250	-0.010	0.000
predicted_R	0.333	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.680	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.458	1.000	-0.458	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.042	0.000	-0.042	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.259	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.286	0.250	-0.036	0.000
predicted_SO	0.458	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.458	1.000	0.542	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.333	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.792	-
predicted_AVG	0.201	-
predicted_BB	0.292	-
predicted_H	0.690	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.251	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.680	-
predicted_SLG	0.259	-
predicted_SO	0.458	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.265	-0.068
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.890	0.098
predicted_AVG	0.201	0.000
predicted_BB	0.269	-0.023
predicted_H	0.756	0.066
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.251	-0.000
predicted_R	0.210	-0.123
predicted_RBI	0.744	0.064
predicted_SLG	0.259	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.381	-0.077

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.89), rates preserved: AVG=0.194 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 24

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	4.000	1.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	0.1905	0.2273	0.2381	0.1905	0.2381	0.0476	0.0952
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	8.000	2.000	7.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	0.2162	0.2750	0.2703	0.2162	0.1892	0.0811	0.0541
season	0.20	24	-	91.000	18.000	8.000	11.000	8.000	7.000	11.000	0.1978	0.2600	0.2857	0.1978	0.1209	0.0769	0.1209

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2280
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.9430
predicted_AVG	0.2010
predicted_BB	0.2570
predicted_H	0.7920
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.2505
predicted_R	0.1440
predicted_RBI	0.7790
predicted_SLG	0.2589
predicted_SO	0.3390

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3330	0.2280	0.2647	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7920	3.9430	3.8902	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2010	0.2010	0.2010	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2920	0.2570	0.2692	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6900	0.7920	0.7563	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2510	0.2505	0.2507	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.1440	0.2102	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6800	0.7790	0.7444	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2590	0.2589	0.2589	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4580	0.3390	0.3807	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	24
Season rows before report date	24
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	24
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.198

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260504_MIL@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	650859
playerID	650859
playerName	Luis Rengifo
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	MIL
teamID	16

Brandon Lockridge (663604) · BATTER · CF · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 22

All-history rows before 20260508: 22

System season_avg: 0.2890

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2895

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.136	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.136	1.000	-0.136	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.455	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.455	4.000	-0.455	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.327	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.289	0.500	0.044	-0.167
predicted_BB	0.455	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.455	0.000	0.545	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.010	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	2.000	0.000	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.417	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.372	0.500	0.128	0.000
predicted_R	0.273	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.273	1.000	0.727	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.550	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.409	0.000	-0.409	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.381	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.329	0.750	0.004	-0.417
predicted_SO	1.136	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.136	1.000	-1.136	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.136	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.455	-
predicted_AVG	0.327	-
predicted_BB	0.455	-
predicted_H	1.010	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.417	-
predicted_R	0.273	-
predicted_RBI	0.550	-
predicted_SLG	0.381	-
predicted_SO	1.136	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.169	0.033
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.449	-0.006
predicted_AVG	0.327	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.508	0.053
predicted_H	1.085	0.075
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.417	-0.000
predicted_R	0.376	0.103
predicted_RBI	0.595	0.045
predicted_SLG	0.381	0.000
predicted_SO	1.155	0.019

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.46), rates preserved: AVG=0.314 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	6.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	3.000	5.000	0.3529	0.4500	0.4118	0.3529	0.2353	0.1765	0.2941
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	11.000	2.000	5.000	3.000	5.000	14.000	0.3143	0.4000	0.3714	0.3143	0.1429	0.1429	0.4000
season	0.20	22	-	76.000	22.000	3.000	9.000	6.000	10.000	25.000	0.2895	0.3721	0.3289	0.2895	0.1184	0.1316	0.3290

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1870
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.4460
predicted_AVG	0.3267
predicted_BB	0.5370
predicted_H	1.1260
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.4169
predicted_R	0.4310
predicted_RBI	0.6190
predicted_SLG	0.3811
predicted_SO	1.1650

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1360	0.1870	0.1692	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4550	3.4460	3.4491	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3270	0.3267	0.3268	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4550	0.5370	0.5083	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0100	1.1260	1.0854	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4170	0.4169	0.4169	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2730	0.4310	0.3757	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5500	0.6190	0.5948	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3810	0.3811	0.3811	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1360	1.1650	1.1549	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.289

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260503_MIL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	663604
playerID	663604
playerName	Brandon Lockridge
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	MIL
teamID	16

Andrew Vaughn (683734) · BATTER · 1B · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 3

All-history rows before 20260508: 3

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	4.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.500	-0.250	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.960	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.000	2.000	-1.000	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.308	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.308	0.500	-0.308	-0.500
predicted_R	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_RBI	1.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	1.333	3.000	-1.333	-3.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.500	1.250	-0.500	-1.250
predicted_SO	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.250	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.960	-
predicted_HR	0.320	-
predicted_OBP	0.308	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	1.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.500	-
predicted_SO	0.333	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.250	0.000
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.986	0.026
predicted_HBP	0.333	-
predicted_HR	0.329	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.308	-0.000
predicted_R	0.333	0.000
predicted_RBI	1.311	0.041
predicted_SLG	0.500	0.000
predicted_SO	0.333	0.000

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.246 HR/AB=0.082

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 3

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	3	-	12.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	0.2500	0.3077	0.5000	0.2500	0.0833	0.3333	0.0833
last_10	0.35	3	-	12.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	0.2500	0.3077	0.5000	0.2500	0.0833	0.3333	0.0833
season	0.20	3	-	12.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	0.2500	0.3077	0.5000	0.2500	0.0833	0.3333	0.0833

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.0000
predicted_AVG	0.2500
predicted_BB	0.0000
predicted_H	1.0000
predicted_HBP	0.3330
predicted_HR	0.3330
predicted_OBP	0.3077
predicted_R	0.3330
predicted_RBI	1.3330
predicted_SLG	0.5000
predicted_SO	0.3330

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0000	4.0000	4.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2500	0.2500	0.2500	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9600	1.0000	0.9860	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.3330	0.3330	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3200	0.3330	0.3285	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3080	0.3077	0.3078	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.3330	0.3330	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	1.2700	1.3330	1.3110	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5000	0.5000	0.5000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3330	0.3330	0.3330	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	3
Season rows before report date	3
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	3
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260506_MIL@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	683734
playerID	683734
playerName	Andrew Vaughn
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	MIL
teamID	16

Brice Turang (668930) · BATTER · 2B · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 32

All-history rows before 20260508: 32

System season_avg: 0.3050

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3051

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_3B	0.031	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.031	0.000	-0.031	0.000
predicted_AB	3.688	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.688	3.000	0.312	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.387	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.305	0.333	-0.055	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.906	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.906	2.000	0.094	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_H	1.380	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.125	1.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_HR	0.150	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.156	0.000	0.844	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.533	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.439	0.600	-0.039	-0.200
predicted_R	0.906	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.906	1.000	0.094	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.540	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	0.688	0.000	1.312	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.219	0.000	-0.219	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.563	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SLG	0.517	0.333	0.483	0.667
predicted_SO	0.969	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.969	1.000	-0.969	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.031	-
predicted_AB	3.688	-
predicted_AVG	0.387	-
predicted_BB	0.906	-
predicted_H	1.380	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.533	-
predicted_R	0.906	-
predicted_RBI	0.540	-
predicted_SLG	0.563	-
predicted_SO	0.969	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.188	-0.062
predicted_3B	0.015	-0.016
predicted_AB	3.642	-0.046
predicted_AVG	0.387	0.000
predicted_BB	1.073	0.167
predicted_H	1.394	0.014
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.154	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.533	-0.000
predicted_R	0.991	0.085
predicted_RBI	0.545	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.563	0.000
predicted_SO	0.845	-0.124

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.69), rates preserved: AVG=0.378 HR/AB=0.042

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	2.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	2.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	8.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	7.000	3.000	0.4444	0.6000	0.6111	0.4444	0.0556	0.1667	0.3889	0.1667
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	13.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	9.000	10.000	9.000	0.3611	0.5000	0.5278	0.3611	0.0278	0.1111	0.2778	0.2500
season	0.20	32	-	118.000	36.000	8.000	1.000	5.000	22.000	29.000	29.000	31.000	0.3051	0.4392	0.5169	0.3051	0.0424	0.1864	0.2458	0.2627

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1550
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.6170
predicted_AVG	0.3874
predicted_BB	1.1630
predicted_H	1.4010
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1560
predicted_OBP	0.5328
predicted_R	1.0370
predicted_RBI	0.5470
predicted_SLG	0.5631
predicted_SO	0.7780

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.1550	0.1883	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0310	0.0060	0.0147	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6880	3.6170	3.6418	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3870	0.3874	0.3873	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.9060	1.1630	1.0731	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.3800	1.4010	1.3937	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1560	0.1539	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.5330	0.5328	0.5329	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.9060	1.0370	0.9911	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5400	0.5470	0.5446	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5630	0.5631	0.5631	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9690	0.7780	0.8448	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.305

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260506_MIL@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	668930
playerID	668930
playerName	Brice Turang
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	MIL
teamID	16

Jacob Misiorowski (694819) · PITCHER · Starter · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 7

All-history rows before 20260508: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	4.000	4.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.714	0.000	2.286	4.000
predicted_IP	3.100	3.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.329	5.100	-2.229	-2.000
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_SO	8.429	8.000	-5.429	-5.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 3.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	27.000	9.000	17.000	10.000	41.000	2.000	3.0000	1.0000	0.3333	0.6296	0.3704	1.5185	0.0741
last_10	0.35	7	38.000	12.000	23.000	15.000	59.000	4.000	2.8421	1.0000	0.3158	0.6053	0.3947	1.5526	0.1053
season	0.20	7	38.000	12.000	23.000	15.000	59.000	4.000	2.8421	1.0000	0.3158	0.6053	0.3947	1.5526	0.1053

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.0470
predicted_ER	1.7260
predicted_ERA	2.9132
predicted_H	3.2870
predicted_HR	0.4870
predicted_IP	5.1000
predicted_SO	8.1990
predicted_WHIP	1.0000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	7.0000	2.0470	3.7805	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	4.0000	1.7260	2.5219	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.9132	2.9132	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	3.2870	2.8365	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	2.0000	0.4870	1.0166	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	3.1000	5.1000	4.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	8.1990	6.3793	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0000	1.0000	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	3.1
H	2
R	4
ER	4
BB	7
SO	3
HR	2
BF	21
Pitches	104

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	18
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.84
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.1
Pitching_Pitches	85
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	8
Pitching_Strikes	58
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260501_MIL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	694819
playerID	694819
playerName	Jacob Misiorowski
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	MIL
teamID	16

Abner Uribe (682842) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 15

All-history rows before 20260508: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.400	1.000	-0.400	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.780	1.000	0.420	0.200
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.933	0.000	0.067	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	2.000	3.000	0.000	5.000	1.000	4.1538	0.6923	0.4615	0.6923	0.0000	1.1539	0.2308
last_10	0.35	10	8.200	5.000	7.000	2.000	8.000	1.000	5.1923	1.0385	0.5769	0.8077	0.2308	0.9231	0.1154
season	0.20	15	13.100	6.000	11.000	3.000	14.000	1.000	4.0500	1.0500	0.4500	0.8250	0.2250	1.0500	0.0750

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1260
predicted_ER	0.5000
predicted_ERA	4.4965
predicted_H	0.7590
predicted_HR	0.1590
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0520
predicted_WHIP	0.8850

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1260	0.0819	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5000	0.3250	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.4965	4.4965	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.7590	0.8434	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1590	0.1034	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.0000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0520	1.0338	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.8850	0.8850	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	4.05
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_MIL@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	682842
playerID	682842
playerName	Abner Uribe
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIL
teamID	16

Aaron Ashby (676879) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 17

All-history rows before 20260508: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.353	0.000	1.647	2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.188	2.000	-0.188	-1.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	2.059	1.000	-1.059	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	8.000	1.000	4.000	6.000	11.000	0.000	1.1250	1.2500	0.1250	0.5000	0.7500	1.3750	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	13.100	3.000	10.000	9.000	21.000	0.000	2.0250	1.4250	0.2250	0.7500	0.6750	1.5750	0.0000
season	0.20	17	23.000	6.000	17.000	14.000	35.000	1.000	2.3478	1.3478	0.2609	0.7391	0.6087	1.5217	0.0435

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.0320
predicted_ER	0.2780
predicted_ERA	1.6846
predicted_H	0.9420
predicted_HR	0.0130
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	2.1870
predicted_WHIP	1.3308

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	1.0320	0.6708	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.2780	0.8807	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.6846	1.6846	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.9420	1.3123	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	2.0000	0.0130	0.7084	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.1000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	2.1870	1.7715	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3308	1.3308	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	2
ER	2
BB	0
SO	1
HR	2
BF	5
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.35
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	28
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	18
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_MIL@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	676879
playerID	676879
playerName	Aaron Ashby
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIL
teamID	16

DL Hall (669084) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 15

All-history rows before 20260508: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.200	0.000	-0.200
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.947	1.000	0.053
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.333	1.000	-0.333

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	7.100	0.000	1.000	3.000	8.000	0.000	0.0000	0.5455	0.0000	0.1364	0.4091	1.0909	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	3.000	5.000	6.000	10.000	1.000	2.7931	1.1379	0.3103	0.5172	0.6207	1.0345	0.1035
season	0.20	15	17.000	3.000	9.000	11.000	20.000	1.000	1.5882	1.1765	0.1765	0.5294	0.6471	1.1765	0.0588

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6100
predicted_ER	0.1650
predicted_ERA	1.2952
predicted_H	0.4010
predicted_HR	0.0550
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.2520
predicted_WHIP	0.8790

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.6100	0.3965	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1650	0.1073	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.2952	1.2952	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.4010	0.2607	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0550	0.0358	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.2520	1.1638	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.8790	0.8790	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.59
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_MIL@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	669084
playerID	669084
playerName	DL Hall
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIL
teamID	16

Grant Anderson (681982) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 18

All-history rows before 20260508: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.750	0.200	0.250	0.800
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.833	0.000	-0.833	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.100	2.000	5.000	0.000	4.000	2.000	5.4000	1.5000	0.6000	1.5000	0.0000	1.2000	0.6000
last_10	0.35	10	8.100	4.000	8.000	2.000	6.000	2.000	4.3200	1.2000	0.4800	0.9600	0.2400	0.7200	0.2400
season	0.20	18	17.000	6.000	12.000	6.000	15.000	2.000	3.1765	1.0588	0.3529	0.7059	0.3529	0.8823	0.1177

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1130
predicted_ER	0.3730
predicted_ERA	4.5773
predicted_H	0.8450
predicted_HR	0.2770
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.7100
predicted_WHIP	1.3068

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1130	0.0735	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.3730	0.5924	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.5773	4.5773	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.8450	0.8992	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.2770	0.5301	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.7100	0.4615	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3068	1.3068	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	1
BF	4
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	2
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.18
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	9
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	6
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_MIL@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	681982
playerID	681982
playerName	Grant Anderson
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIL
teamID	16

Trevor Megill (656730) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 14

All-history rows before 20260508: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.643	1.000	-0.643	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.929	1.000	0.071	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.071	2.000	-1.071	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	1.8000	0.8000	0.2000	0.6000	0.2000	1.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	4.000	8.000	2.000	10.000	3.6000	1.0000	0.4000	0.8000	0.2000	1.0000
season	0.20	13	13.000	5.000	10.000	5.000	15.000	3.4615	1.1538	0.3846	0.7692	0.3846	1.1539

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2370
predicted_ER	0.3070
predicted_ERA	2.7623
predicted_H	0.7040
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0310
predicted_WHIP	0.9408

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2370	0.1540	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3070	0.1996	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.7623	2.7623	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7040	0.4576	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.0310	0.6702	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9408	0.9408	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	6.23
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	21
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	14
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_MIL@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	656730
playerID	656730
playerName	Trevor Megill
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIL
teamID	16

20260508_OAK@BAL

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 8, "home_runs": 3, "confidence": 0.6204802768460298, "home_win_probability": 0.3795197231539702, "away_win_probability": 0.6204802768460298, "predicted_score_text": "OAK 8 - 3 BAL", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to final winner probability with starter-quality caps.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "predicted_score_text": "OAK 5 - 4 BAL", "confidence": 0.6204802768460298, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score", "final_prediction_synced": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "OAK 5 - 4 BAL", "winner": "OAK"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 8, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "OAK 8 - 3 BAL", "winner": "OAK"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 3, "home_run_delta": -1, "total_run_delta": 2, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"}}

Away Team: OAK

Tyler Soderstrom (691016) · BATTER · LF · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 35

All-history rows before 20260508: 35

System season_avg: 0.2200

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2197

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.314	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.314	0.000	0.686	1.000
predicted_3B	0.029	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_AB	3.771	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.771	3.000	1.229	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.240	0.600	0.600	Hitting_AVG	0.220	0.333	0.380	0.267
predicted_BB	0.514	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.514	2.000	-0.514	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.880	3.000	3.000	Hitting_H	0.829	1.000	2.171	2.000
predicted_HR	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.343	0.600	0.600	Hitting_OBP	0.311	0.600	0.289	0.000
predicted_R	0.571	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.571	2.000	0.429	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.571	0.000	0.429	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.532	0.800	0.800	Hitting_SLG	0.432	0.333	0.368	0.467
predicted_SO	0.886	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.886	0.000	0.114	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.314	-
predicted_3B	0.029	-
predicted_AB	3.771	-
predicted_AVG	0.240	-
predicted_BB	0.514	-
predicted_H	0.880	-
predicted_HR	0.310	-
predicted_OBP	0.343	-
predicted_R	0.571	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.532	-
predicted_SO	0.886	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.197	-0.117
predicted_3B	0.014	-0.015
predicted_AB	3.740	-0.030
predicted_AVG	0.240	0.000
predicted_BB	0.559	0.045
predicted_H	0.889	0.009
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.312	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.343	-0.000
predicted_R	0.748	0.177
predicted_RBI	0.395	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.532	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.922	0.036

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.77), rates preserved: AVG=0.236 HR/AB=0.083

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	3.000	5.000	0.2632	0.3636	0.5789	0.2632	0.1053	0.1053	0.1579	0.2632
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	8.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	8.000	6.000	9.000	0.2222	0.3333	0.5278	0.2222	0.0833	0.0833	0.1667	0.2500
season	0.20	35	-	132.000	29.000	11.000	1.000	5.000	20.000	20.000	18.000	31.000	0.2197	0.3113	0.4318	0.2197	0.0379	0.1515	0.1364	0.2349

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1340
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.7240
predicted_AVG	0.2402
predicted_BB	0.5830
predicted_H	0.8940
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.3130
predicted_OBP	0.3425
predicted_R	0.8440
predicted_RBI	0.3980
predicted_SLG	0.5316
predicted_SO	0.9420

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3140	0.1340	0.1970	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0290	0.0060	0.0140	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7710	3.7240	3.7405	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2400	0.2402	0.2401	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5140	0.5830	0.5589	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8800	0.8940	0.8891	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3100	0.3130	0.3120	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3430	0.3425	0.3427	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5710	0.8440	0.7484	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.3980	0.3952	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5320	0.5316	0.5317	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8860	0.9420	0.9224	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	3
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.22

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260507_OAK@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	691016
playerID	691016
playerName	Tyler Soderstrom
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	OAK
teamID	20

Zack Gelof (680869) · BATTER · 3B · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 14

All-history rows before 20260508: 14

System season_avg: 0.2650

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2653

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	0.000	0.857	1.000
predicted_3B	0.071	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.071	1.000	-0.071	-1.000
predicted_AB	3.500	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	5.000	0.500	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.319	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.265	0.400	-0.015	-0.150
predicted_BB	0.214	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.214	0.000	-0.214	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.940	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.929	2.000	0.071	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.214	1.000	-0.214	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.377	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.308	0.400	-0.058	-0.150
predicted_R	0.643	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.643	2.000	0.357	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.820	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.714	3.000	-0.714	-3.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.727	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.531	1.400	-0.031	-0.900
predicted_SO	0.929	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.929	1.000	-0.929	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.071	-
predicted_AB	3.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.319	-
predicted_BB	0.214	-
predicted_H	0.940	-
predicted_HR	0.280	-
predicted_OBP	0.377	-
predicted_R	0.643	-
predicted_RBI	0.820	-
predicted_SLG	0.727	-
predicted_SO	0.929	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.151	0.008
predicted_3B	0.117	0.046
predicted_AB	3.494	-0.006
predicted_AVG	0.319	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.289	0.075
predicted_H	1.052	0.112
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.312	0.032
predicted_OBP	0.377	-0.000
predicted_R	0.785	0.142
predicted_RBI	0.916	0.096
predicted_SLG	0.727	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.922	-0.007

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.301 HR/AB=0.089

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	5.000	2.000	5.000	0.3529	0.4211	0.8824	0.3529	0.1177	0.3529	0.1177	0.2941
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	11.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	8.000	8.000	3.000	8.000	0.3056	0.3590	0.6389	0.3056	0.0833	0.2222	0.0833	0.2222
season	0.20	14	-	49.000	13.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	10.000	9.000	3.000	13.000	0.2653	0.3077	0.5306	0.2653	0.0612	0.2041	0.0612	0.2653

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1550
predicted_3B	0.1410
predicted_AB	3.4900
predicted_AVG	0.3188
predicted_BB	0.3290
predicted_H	1.1130
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.3290
predicted_OBP	0.3767
predicted_R	0.8620
predicted_RBI	0.9680
predicted_SLG	0.7268
predicted_SO	0.9190

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.1550	0.1508	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0710	0.1410	0.1165	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5000	3.4900	3.4935	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3190	0.3188	0.3189	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2140	0.3290	0.2888	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9400	1.1130	1.0524	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2800	0.3290	0.3119	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3770	0.3767	0.3768	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6430	0.8620	0.7853	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.8200	0.9680	0.9162	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.7270	0.7268	0.7269	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9290	0.9190	0.9225	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.265

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	1
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	7
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260507_OAK@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	680869
playerID	680869
playerName	Zack Gelof
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	OAK
teamID	20

Brent Rooker (667670) · BATTER · DH · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 20

All-history rows before 20260508: 20

System season_avg: 0.1790

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1795

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.900	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.900	4.000	1.100	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.239	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.179	0.500	-0.179	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.450	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.450	1.000	-0.450	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.890	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.700	2.000	-0.700	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.200	1.000	-0.200	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.307	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.258	0.600	-0.258	-0.600
predicted_R	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.400	1.000	-0.400	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.730	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.750	3.000	-0.750	-3.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.422	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.346	1.250	-0.346	-1.250
predicted_SO	1.450	3.000	3.000	Hitting_SO	1.450	1.000	1.550	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.050	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.900	-
predicted_AVG	0.239	-
predicted_BB	0.450	-
predicted_H	0.890	-
predicted_HR	0.190	-
predicted_OBP	0.307	-
predicted_R	0.400	-
predicted_RBI	0.730	-
predicted_SLG	0.422	-
predicted_SO	1.450	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.105	0.055
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.975	0.075
predicted_AVG	0.239	0.000
predicted_BB	0.424	-0.026
predicted_H	0.935	0.045
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.197	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.307	-0.000
predicted_R	0.400	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.769	0.039
predicted_SLG	0.422	0.000
predicted_SO	1.461	0.011

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.97), rates preserved: AVG=0.235 HR/AB=0.049

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 3.900

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	8.000	0.3000	0.3636	0.5000	0.3000	0.0500	0.2000	0.1000	0.4000
last_10	0.35	10	-	41.000	8.000	1.000	2.000	8.000	4.000	4.000	13.000	0.1951	0.2609	0.3659	0.1951	0.0488	0.1951	0.0976	0.3171
season	0.20	20	-	78.000	14.000	1.000	4.000	15.000	8.000	9.000	29.000	0.1795	0.2584	0.3462	0.1795	0.0513	0.1923	0.1154	0.3718

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1350
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.0150
predicted_AVG	0.2392
predicted_BB	0.4100
predicted_H	0.9600
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.2000
predicted_OBP	0.3066
predicted_R	0.4000
predicted_RBI	0.7900
predicted_SLG	0.4223
predicted_SO	1.4670

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0500	0.1350	0.1053	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9000	4.0150	3.9748	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2390	0.2392	0.2391	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4500	0.4100	0.4240	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8900	0.9600	0.9355	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1900	0.2000	0.1965	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3070	0.3066	0.3067	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4000	0.4000	0.4000	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7300	0.7900	0.7690	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4220	0.4223	0.4222	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4500	1.4670	1.4611	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.179

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260507_OAK@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	667670
playerID	667670
playerName	Brent Rooker
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	OAK
teamID	20

Jeff McNeil (643446) · BATTER · 2B · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 29

All-history rows before 20260508: 29

System season_avg: 0.3270

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3269

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.276	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.276	0.000	-0.276	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.586	2.000	2.000	Hitting_AB	3.586	4.000	-1.586	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.391	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.327	0.250	0.173	0.250
predicted_BB	0.345	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.345	0.000	0.655	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.069	0.000	-0.069	0.000
predicted_H	1.160	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.172	1.000	-0.172	0.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.034	0.000	-0.034	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.410	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.385	0.250	0.115	0.250
predicted_R	0.310	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.310	0.000	0.690	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.620	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.414	0.000	0.586	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.034	0.000	-0.034	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.489	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.433	0.250	0.067	0.250
predicted_SO	0.414	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.414	3.000	-0.414	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.276	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.586	-
predicted_AVG	0.391	-
predicted_BB	0.345	-
predicted_H	1.160	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.410	-
predicted_R	0.310	-
predicted_RBI	0.620	-
predicted_SLG	0.489	-
predicted_SO	0.414	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.317	0.041
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.652	0.066
predicted_AVG	0.391	0.000
predicted_BB	0.214	-0.131
predicted_H	1.343	0.183
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.008	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.410	0.000
predicted_R	0.197	-0.113
predicted_RBI	0.720	0.100
predicted_SLG	0.489	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.441	0.027

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.65), rates preserved: AVG=0.368 HR/AB=0.002

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-2.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	1.000	1.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	8.000	2.000	0.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	0.4211	0.4211	0.5263	0.4210	0.0000	0.2632	0.0000	0.1579
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	14.000	3.000	0.000	7.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	0.3889	0.4103	0.4722	0.3889	0.0000	0.1944	0.0556	0.0833
season	0.20	29	-	104.000	34.000	8.000	1.000	12.000	9.000	10.000	12.000	0.3269	0.3846	0.4327	0.3269	0.0096	0.1154	0.0961	0.1154

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3390
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.6870
predicted_AVG	0.3910
predicted_BB	0.1430
predicted_H	1.4420
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.0070
predicted_OBP	0.4100
predicted_R	0.1360
predicted_RBI	0.7730
predicted_SLG	0.4886
predicted_SO	0.4550

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2760	0.3390	0.3170	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5860	3.6870	3.6517	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3910	0.3910	0.3910	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3450	0.1430	0.2137	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1600	1.4420	1.3433	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0070	0.0080	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4100	0.4100	0.4100	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3100	0.1360	0.1969	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6200	0.7730	0.7195	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4890	0.4886	0.4887	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4140	0.4550	0.4406	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	1
HBP	0
season_avg	0.327

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260507_OAK@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	643446
playerID	643446
playerName	Jeff McNeil
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	OAK
teamID	20

Jacob Wilson (805779) · BATTER · SS · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 36

All-history rows before 20260508: 36

System season_avg: 0.2910

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2914

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.194	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.194	4.000	-0.194	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.314	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.291	0.250	0.209	0.250
predicted_BB	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.190	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	1.222	1.000	0.778	1.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.083	1.000	-0.083	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.349	0.600	0.600	Hitting_OBP	0.308	0.250	0.292	0.350
predicted_R	0.472	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.472	1.000	0.528	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.490	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	2.000	-0.500	-2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.475	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.404	1.000	0.096	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.472	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.472	0.000	-0.472	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.222	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.194	-
predicted_AVG	0.314	-
predicted_BB	0.111	-
predicted_H	1.190	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.349	-
predicted_R	0.472	-
predicted_RBI	0.490	-
predicted_SLG	0.475	-
predicted_SO	0.472	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.210	-0.012
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.035	-0.159
predicted_AVG	0.314	0.000
predicted_BB	0.180	0.069
predicted_H	1.222	0.032
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.143	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.349	0.000
predicted_R	0.419	-0.053
predicted_RBI	0.505	0.015
predicted_SLG	0.475	0.000
predicted_SO	0.434	-0.038

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.19), rates preserved: AVG=0.291 HR/AB=0.034

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 4.194

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	0.3158	0.3500	0.5263	0.3158	0.0526	0.1579	0.0526	0.1053
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	13.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	6.000	3.000	4.000	0.3250	0.3721	0.4500	0.3250	0.0250	0.1000	0.0750	0.1000
season	0.20	36	-	151.000	44.000	8.000	3.000	18.000	17.000	4.000	17.000	0.2914	0.3077	0.4040	0.2914	0.0199	0.1192	0.0265	0.1126

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2040
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.9490
predicted_AVG	0.3141
predicted_BB	0.2180
predicted_H	1.2400
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1440
predicted_OBP	0.3493
predicted_R	0.3900
predicted_RBI	0.5130
predicted_SLG	0.4751
predicted_SO	0.4140

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2220	0.2040	0.2103	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1940	3.9490	4.0347	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3140	0.3141	0.3141	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1110	0.2180	0.1805	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1900	1.2400	1.2225	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1440	0.1426	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3490	0.3493	0.3492	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4720	0.3900	0.4187	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4900	0.5130	0.5050	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4750	0.4751	0.4751	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4720	0.4140	0.4343	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.291

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260507_OAK@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	805779
playerID	805779
playerName	Jacob Wilson
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	OAK
teamID	20

Lawrence Butler (671732) · BATTER · CF · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 26

All-history rows before 20260508: 26

System season_avg: 0.1940

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1935

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.115	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.115	1.000	-0.115	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.577	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.577	4.000	0.423	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.192	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.194	0.250	0.056	0.000
predicted_BB	0.577	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.577	1.000	-0.577	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_H	0.620	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.692	1.000	0.308	0.000
predicted_HR	0.150	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.115	0.000	0.885	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.373	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.306	0.400	-0.056	-0.150
predicted_R	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.500	2.000	0.500	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.540	4.000	4.000	Hitting_RBI	0.462	0.000	3.538	4.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.381	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SLG	0.323	0.500	0.677	0.500
predicted_SO	0.962	3.000	3.000	Hitting_SO	0.962	0.000	2.038	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.115	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.577	-
predicted_AVG	0.192	-
predicted_BB	0.577	-
predicted_H	0.620	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.373	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.540	-
predicted_SLG	0.381	-
predicted_SO	0.962	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.139	0.024
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.345	-0.232
predicted_AVG	0.192	0.000
predicted_BB	0.824	0.247
predicted_H	0.619	-0.001
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.151	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.373	0.000
predicted_R	0.659	0.159
predicted_RBI	0.543	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.381	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.837	-0.125

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.58), rates preserved: AVG=0.173 HR/AB=0.042

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	4.000	3.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 26

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	6.000	3.000	0.2000	0.4286	0.4667	0.2000	0.0667	0.2000	0.4000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	5.000	8.000	9.000	0.1818	0.3415	0.3030	0.1818	0.0303	0.1515	0.2424	0.2727
season	0.20	26	-	93.000	18.000	3.000	3.000	12.000	13.000	15.000	25.000	0.1935	0.3056	0.3226	0.1935	0.0323	0.1290	0.1613	0.2688

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1520
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.2200
predicted_AVG	0.1923
predicted_BB	0.9570
predicted_H	0.6190
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1520
predicted_OBP	0.3735
predicted_R	0.7440
predicted_RBI	0.5440
predicted_SLG	0.3806
predicted_SO	0.7700

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1150	0.1520	0.1391	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5770	3.2200	3.3450	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1920	0.1923	0.1922	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5770	0.9570	0.8240	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6200	0.6190	0.6193	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1520	0.1513	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3730	0.3735	0.3733	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.7440	0.6586	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5400	0.5440	0.5426	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3810	0.3806	0.3807	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9620	0.7700	0.8372	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	26
Season rows before report date	26
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	26
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	4
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.194

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260507_OAK@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	671732
playerID	671732
playerName	Lawrence Butler
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	OAK
teamID	20

Carlos Cortes (666126) · BATTER · RF · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 22

All-history rows before 20260508: 22

System season_avg: 0.3600

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3600

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.136	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.136	0.000	-0.136	0.000
predicted_3B	0.045	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.045	0.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_AB	3.409	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.409	5.000	0.591	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.384	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.360	0.400	-0.110	-0.150
predicted_BB	0.318	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.318	0.000	0.682	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.250	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.227	2.000	-0.227	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.182	0.000	0.818	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.413	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.415	0.400	-0.015	0.000
predicted_R	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.500	1.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.636	1.000	0.364	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.527	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SLG	0.587	0.400	0.413	0.600
predicted_SO	0.364	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.364	1.000	-0.364	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.136	-
predicted_3B	0.045	-
predicted_AB	3.409	-
predicted_AVG	0.384	-
predicted_BB	0.318	-
predicted_H	1.250	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.413	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.527	-
predicted_SO	0.364	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.089	-0.047
predicted_3B	0.044	-0.001
predicted_AB	3.785	0.376
predicted_AVG	0.384	0.000
predicted_BB	0.239	-0.079
predicted_H	1.433	0.183
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.130	0.020
predicted_OBP	0.413	0.000
predicted_R	0.574	0.074
predicted_RBI	0.467	0.057
predicted_SLG	0.527	0.000
predicted_SO	0.543	0.179

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.78), rates preserved: AVG=0.379 HR/AB=0.034

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	2.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	2.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	7.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	0.3500	0.3810	0.3500	0.3500	0.0000	0.0500	0.0500	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	-	43.000	19.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	8.000	7.000	1.000	6.000	0.4419	0.4545	0.7209	0.4419	0.0698	0.1860	0.0233	0.1395
season	0.20	22	-	75.000	27.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	14.000	11.000	7.000	8.000	0.3600	0.4146	0.5867	0.3600	0.0533	0.1867	0.0933	0.1067

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0640
predicted_3B	0.0430
predicted_AB	3.9870
predicted_AVG	0.3842
predicted_BB	0.1970
predicted_H	1.5320
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1400
predicted_OBP	0.4134
predicted_R	0.6130
predicted_RBI	0.4980
predicted_SLG	0.5272
predicted_SO	0.6390

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1360	0.0640	0.0892	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0450	0.0430	0.0437	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4090	3.9870	3.7847	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3840	0.3842	0.3841	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3180	0.1970	0.2394	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2500	1.5320	1.4333	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1400	0.1295	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4130	0.4134	0.4133	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.6130	0.5735	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.4980	0.4672	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5270	0.5272	0.5271	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3640	0.6390	0.5427	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.36

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260507_OAK@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	666126
playerID	666126
playerName	Carlos Cortes
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	OAK
teamID	20

Nick Kurtz (701762) · BATTER · 1B · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 36

All-history rows before 20260508: 36

System season_avg: 0.2520

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2519

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.139	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.139	0.000	-0.139	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.639	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.639	4.000	1.361	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.297	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.252	0.250	-0.252	-0.250
predicted_BB	1.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_H	1.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.917	1.000	-0.917	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.139	0.000	-0.139	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.393	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.413	0.400	-0.413	-0.400
predicted_R	0.556	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.556	1.000	0.444	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.520	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.345	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.405	0.250	-0.405	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.444	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.444	1.000	-0.444	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.139	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.639	-
predicted_AVG	0.297	-
predicted_BB	1.000	-
predicted_H	1.070	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.393	-
predicted_R	0.556	-
predicted_RBI	0.520	-
predicted_SLG	0.345	-
predicted_SO	1.444	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.114	-0.025
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.885	0.246
predicted_AVG	0.297	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.765	-0.235
predicted_H	1.149	0.079
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.031	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.393	-0.000
predicted_R	0.455	-0.101
predicted_RBI	0.559	0.039
predicted_SLG	0.345	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.369	-0.075

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.89), rates preserved: AVG=0.296 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	7.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	6.000	0.3333	0.3913	0.3333	0.3333	0.0000	0.1429	0.0952	0.2857
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	11.000	2.000	0.000	6.000	3.000	7.000	14.000	0.2750	0.3830	0.3250	0.2750	0.0000	0.1500	0.1750	0.3500
season	0.20	36	-	131.000	33.000	5.000	5.000	18.000	20.000	36.000	52.000	0.2519	0.4132	0.4046	0.2519	0.0382	0.1374	0.2748	0.3970

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1010
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.0180
predicted_AVG	0.2966
predicted_BB	0.6390
predicted_H	1.1920
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0310
predicted_OBP	0.3928
predicted_R	0.4000
predicted_RBI	0.5800
predicted_SLG	0.3447
predicted_SO	1.3280

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1390	0.1010	0.1143	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6390	4.0180	3.8853	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2970	0.2966	0.2967	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.6390	0.7653	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0700	1.1920	1.1493	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0310	0.0307	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3930	0.3928	0.3929	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5560	0.4000	0.4546	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5200	0.5800	0.5590	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3450	0.3447	0.3448	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4440	1.3280	1.3686	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.252

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260507_OAK@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	701762
playerID	701762
playerName	Nick Kurtz
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	OAK
teamID	20

Shea Langeliers (669127) · BATTER · C · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 33

All-history rows before 20260508: 33

System season_avg: 0.3380

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3381

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.273	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.273	0.000	0.727	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.212	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.212	5.000	-0.212	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.409	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.338	0.400	0.162	0.100
predicted_BB	0.364	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.364	0.000	0.636	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.660	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	1.424	2.000	0.576	0.000
predicted_HR	0.410	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.333	1.000	0.667	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.449	0.600	0.600	Hitting_OBP	0.391	0.400	0.209	0.200
predicted_R	0.788	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.788	2.000	0.212	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.800	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.606	2.000	0.394	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.822	1.500	1.500	Hitting_SLG	0.640	1.000	0.860	0.500
predicted_SO	0.970	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.970	0.000	-0.970	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.273	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.212	-
predicted_AVG	0.409	-
predicted_BB	0.364	-
predicted_H	1.660	-
predicted_HR	0.410	-
predicted_OBP	0.449	-
predicted_R	0.788	-
predicted_RBI	0.800	-
predicted_SLG	0.822	-
predicted_SO	0.970	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.419	0.146
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.355	0.143
predicted_AVG	0.409	0.000
predicted_BB	0.339	-0.025
predicted_H	1.759	0.099
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.431	0.022
predicted_OBP	0.449	0.000
predicted_R	0.993	0.205
predicted_RBI	0.848	0.048
predicted_SLG	0.822	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.619	-0.351

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.36), rates preserved: AVG=0.404 HR/AB=0.099

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	2.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	2.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 4.212

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	22.000	10.000	3.000	3.000	6.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	0.4545	0.5000	1.0000	0.4546	0.1364	0.2727	0.0909	0.0454
last_10	0.35	10	-	46.000	18.000	5.000	3.000	6.000	9.000	2.000	4.000	0.3913	0.4167	0.6957	0.3913	0.0652	0.1304	0.0435	0.0870
season	0.20	33	-	139.000	47.000	9.000	11.000	20.000	26.000	12.000	32.000	0.3381	0.3907	0.6403	0.3381	0.0791	0.1439	0.0863	0.2302

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.4980
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.4320
predicted_AVG	0.4091
predicted_BB	0.3250
predicted_H	1.8130
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.4430
predicted_OBP	0.4490
predicted_R	1.1040
predicted_RBI	0.8740
predicted_SLG	0.8216
predicted_SO	0.4300

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2730	0.4980	0.4193	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.2120	4.4320	4.3550	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.4090	0.4091	0.4091	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3640	0.3250	0.3387	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.6600	1.8130	1.7594	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.4100	0.4430	0.4315	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4490	0.4490	0.4490	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7880	1.1040	0.9934	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.8000	0.8740	0.8481	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.8220	0.8216	0.8217	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9700	0.4300	0.6190	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.338

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260507_OAK@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	669127
playerID	669127
playerName	Shea Langeliers
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	OAK
teamID	20

Jacob Lopez (682052) · PITCHER · Starter · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 7

All-history rows before 20260508: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	3.143	6.000	-3.143	-6.000
predicted_IP	3.100	3.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.186	5.100	-1.086	-2.000
predicted_SO	7.000	7.000	-	Pitching_SO	3.286	5.000	3.714	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 3.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	21.200	16.000	26.000	12.000	17.000	5.000	6.6462	1.7538	0.7385	1.2000	0.5538	0.7846	0.2308
last_10	0.35	7	30.000	22.000	35.000	22.000	23.000	6.000	6.6000	1.9000	0.7333	1.1667	0.7333	0.7667	0.2000
season	0.20	7	30.000	22.000	35.000	22.000	23.000	6.000	6.6000	1.9000	0.7333	1.1667	0.7333	0.7667	0.2000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.8280
predicted_ER	3.1880
predicted_ERA	6.6208
predicted_H	5.1210
predicted_HR	0.9270
predicted_IP	4.1000
predicted_SO	3.3570
predicted_WHIP	1.8342

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	2.8280	2.8882	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	3.1880	2.0722	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	6.6208	6.6208	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	5.1210	4.3787	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.9270	0.6026	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	3.1000	4.1000	4.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	7.0000	3.3570	4.6320	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.8342	1.8342	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	3.1
H	3
R	0
ER	0
BB	3
SO	7
HR	0
BF	18
Pitches	88

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	25
Pitching_ER	6
Pitching_ERA	6.60
Pitching_Flyouts	4
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	8
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.1
Pitching_Pitches	96
Pitching_R	6
Pitching_SO	5
Pitching_Strikes	63
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260502_CLE@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	682052
playerID	682052
playerName	Jacob Lopez
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	OAK
teamID	20

Hogan Harris (663687) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 20

All-history rows before 20260508: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.300	0.000	-0.300	0.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.710	0.200	0.490	1.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.950	0.000	0.050	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	2.000	7.000	4.000	4.000	1.000	4.5000	2.7500	0.5000	1.7500	1.0000	1.0000	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	8.200	3.000	10.000	4.000	9.000	2.000	3.1154	1.6154	0.3462	1.1539	0.4615	1.0385	0.2308
season	0.20	20	19.100	6.000	17.000	16.000	19.000	2.000	2.7931	1.7069	0.3103	0.8793	0.8276	0.9828	0.1035

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6600
predicted_ER	0.3470
predicted_ERA	3.6740
predicted_H	1.1620
predicted_HR	0.1820
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8590
predicted_WHIP	2.1443

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.6600	0.4290	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3470	0.2256	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.6740	3.6740	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.1620	0.7553	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1820	0.1183	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.0000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8590	0.9083	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	2.1443	2.1443	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	9

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.79
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	2
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	9
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	6
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_OAK@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	663687
playerID	663687
playerName	Hogan Harris
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	OAK
teamID	20

Mark Leiter Jr. (643410) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 17

All-history rows before 20260508: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.765	4.000	0.235	-3.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.712	0.200	0.388	0.900
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.941	1.000	2.059	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	4.000	3.000	2.000	5.000	0.000	9.0000	1.2500	1.0000	0.7500	0.5000	1.2500	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.100	8.000	9.000	5.000	11.000	1.000	8.6400	1.6800	0.9600	1.0800	0.6000	1.3200	0.1200
season	0.20	17	14.200	13.000	21.000	6.000	16.000	2.000	7.9773	1.8409	0.8864	1.4318	0.4091	1.0909	0.1364

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3790
predicted_ER	0.7060
predicted_ERA	8.6695
predicted_H	0.7350
predicted_HR	0.0510
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.9110
predicted_WHIP	1.5187

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3790	0.5963	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.7060	0.8089	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	8.6695	8.6695	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	0.7350	1.5277	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0510	0.0331	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	0.2000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	0.9110	1.6421	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5187	1.5187	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	3
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	3
HR	0
BF	7
Pitches	32

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	4
Pitching_ERA	7.98
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	22
Pitching_R	4
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	15
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_OAK@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	643410
playerID	643410
playerName	Mark Leiter Jr.
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	OAK
teamID	20

Jack Perkins (678022) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 9

All-history rows before 20260508: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.667	2.000	1.333	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.500	1.100	-0.500	-0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	2.111	2.000	-1.111	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	7.100	2.000	4.000	1.000	9.000	2.4545	0.6818	0.2727	0.5454	0.1364	1.2273
last_10	0.35	9	14.200	6.000	13.000	4.000	19.000	3.6818	1.1591	0.4091	0.8864	0.2727	1.2954
season	0.20	9	14.200	6.000	13.000	4.000	19.000	3.6818	1.1591	0.4091	0.8864	0.2727	1.2954

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3210
predicted_ER	0.5270
predicted_ERA	3.1295
predicted_H	1.1120
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.2000
predicted_SO	1.9180
predicted_WHIP	0.9443

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3210	0.5586	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.5270	1.0425	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.1295	3.1295	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	1.1120	1.4228	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0000	0.3500	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.2000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.9180	1.5967	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9443	0.9443	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	2
ER	2
BB	1
SO	1
HR	1
BF	6
Pitches	29

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	8
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	3.68
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	33
Pitching_R	4
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	22
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L, BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_OAK@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	678022
playerID	678022
playerName	Jack Perkins
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	OAK
teamID	20

Joel Kuhnel (669270) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 12

All-history rows before 20260508: 12

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.250	0.000	-0.250
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.842	1.000	0.158
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.417	0.000	-0.417

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	2.000	6.000	4.000	2.000	3.1765	1.7647	0.3529	1.0588	0.7059	0.3529
last_10	0.35	10	11.100	3.000	10.000	4.000	4.000	2.3824	1.2353	0.2647	0.8823	0.3529	0.3529
season	0.20	12	12.200	3.000	10.000	4.000	5.000	2.1316	1.1053	0.2368	0.7895	0.3158	0.3947

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5040
predicted_ER	0.2990
predicted_ERA	2.6896
predicted_H	0.9430
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.3610
predicted_WHIP	1.4475

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5040	0.3276	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2990	0.1943	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.6896	2.6896	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9430	0.6129	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.3610	0.2346	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4475	1.4475	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.13
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_CLE@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	669270
playerID	669270
playerName	Joel Kuhnel
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	OAK
teamID	20

Scott Barlow (605130) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 16

All-history rows before 20260508: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.438	0.000	-0.438	0.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.881	1.000	-0.681	-0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.875	1.000	0.125	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	2.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	0.000	3.1765	0.1765	0.3529	0.0000	0.1765	0.5294	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	3.000	3.000	5.000	8.000	1.000	2.5312	0.7500	0.2812	0.2812	0.4688	0.7500	0.0938
season	0.20	15	16.200	3.000	5.000	6.000	14.000	1.000	1.6200	0.6600	0.1800	0.3000	0.3600	0.8400	0.0600

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3150
predicted_ER	0.2930
predicted_ERA	2.6393
predicted_H	0.1580
predicted_HR	0.0450
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.6690
predicted_WHIP	0.4739

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3150	0.2048	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2930	0.1905	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.6393	2.6393	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.1580	0.1027	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0450	0.0292	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.6690	0.7849	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.4739	0.4739	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.78
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	8
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	6
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_OAK@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	605130
playerID	605130
playerName	Scott Barlow
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	OAK
teamID	20

Home Team: BAL

Adley Rutschman (668939) · BATTER · C · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 20

All-history rows before 20260508: 20

System season_avg: 0.2950

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2949

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.350	2.000	-0.350	-2.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.900	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.900	3.000	1.100	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.229	0.200	0.200	Hitting_AVG	0.295	0.667	-0.095	-0.467
predicted_BB	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.300	1.000	-0.300	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.870	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.150	2.000	-0.150	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.287	0.200	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.353	0.800	-0.153	-0.600
predicted_R	0.450	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.450	1.000	-0.450	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.800	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.900	2.000	-0.900	-2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.417	0.200	0.200	Hitting_SLG	0.538	1.333	-0.338	-1.133
predicted_SO	0.550	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.550	0.000	0.450	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.350	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.900	-
predicted_AVG	0.229	-
predicted_BB	0.300	-
predicted_H	0.870	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.287	-
predicted_R	0.450	-
predicted_RBI	0.800	-
predicted_SLG	0.417	-
predicted_SO	0.550	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.331	-0.019
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.975	0.075
predicted_AVG	0.229	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.226	-0.074
predicted_H	0.902	0.032
predicted_HBP	0.135	-
predicted_HR	0.143	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.287	-0.000
predicted_R	0.410	-0.040
predicted_RBI	0.830	0.030
predicted_SLG	0.417	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.531	-0.019

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.97), rates preserved: AVG=0.227 HR/AB=0.036

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 3.900

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	3.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	0.1500	0.2273	0.2500	0.1500	0.0000	0.1000	0.0500	0.1500
last_10	0.35	10	-	41.000	12.000	2.000	3.000	14.000	6.000	1.000	4.000	0.2927	0.3256	0.5610	0.2927	0.0732	0.3415	0.0244	0.0976
season	0.20	20	-	78.000	23.000	7.000	4.000	18.000	9.000	6.000	11.000	0.2949	0.3529	0.5385	0.2949	0.0513	0.2308	0.0769	0.1410

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3210
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.0150
predicted_AVG	0.2289
predicted_BB	0.1860
predicted_H	0.9190
predicted_HBP	0.1350
predicted_HR	0.1440
predicted_OBP	0.2868
predicted_R	0.3890
predicted_RBI	0.8460
predicted_SLG	0.4166
predicted_SO	0.5210

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3500	0.3210	0.3311	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9000	4.0150	3.9748	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2290	0.2289	0.2289	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3000	0.1860	0.2259	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8700	0.9190	0.9019	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1350	0.1350	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1440	0.1426	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2870	0.2868	0.2869	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4500	0.3890	0.4103	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.8000	0.8460	0.8299	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4170	0.4166	0.4167	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5500	0.5210	0.5312	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.295

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	2
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260506_BAL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	668939
playerID	668939
playerName	Adley Rutschman
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	BAL
teamID	3

Coby Mayo (691723) · BATTER · DH · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 28

All-history rows before 20260508: 28

System season_avg: 0.1680

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1684

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.107	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.107	0.000	-0.107	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.393	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.393	4.000	0.607	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.175	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.168	0.500	0.082	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.530	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.571	2.000	0.429	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.107	0.000	-0.107	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.188	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.233	0.500	0.017	-0.250
predicted_R	0.321	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.321	1.000	-0.321	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.393	0.000	-0.393	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.036	0.000	-0.036	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.241	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.295	0.500	-0.045	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.071	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.071	0.000	-1.071	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.107	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.393	-
predicted_AVG	0.175	-
predicted_BB	0.286	-
predicted_H	0.530	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.188	-
predicted_R	0.321	-
predicted_RBI	0.100	-
predicted_SLG	0.241	-
predicted_SO	1.071	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.074	-0.033
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.397	0.004
predicted_AVG	0.175	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.137	-0.149
predicted_H	0.572	0.042
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.054	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.188	-0.000
predicted_R	0.258	-0.063
predicted_RBI	0.109	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.241	0.000
predicted_SO	0.998	-0.073

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.40), rates preserved: AVG=0.168 HR/AB=0.016

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	0.1765	0.1765	0.1765	0.1765	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.2353
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	0.000	11.000	0.1765	0.1765	0.2941	0.1765	0.0294	0.0294	0.0000	0.3235
season	0.20	28	-	95.000	16.000	3.000	3.000	11.000	9.000	8.000	30.000	0.1684	0.2330	0.2947	0.1684	0.0316	0.1158	0.0842	0.3158

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0560
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.3990
predicted_AVG	0.1749
predicted_BB	0.0570
predicted_H	0.5940
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0560
predicted_OBP	0.1878
predicted_R	0.2240
predicted_RBI	0.1140
predicted_SLG	0.2413
predicted_SO	0.9590

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1070	0.0560	0.0738	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3930	3.3990	3.3969	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1750	0.1749	0.1749	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2860	0.0570	0.1371	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5300	0.5940	0.5716	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0560	0.0539	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1880	0.1878	0.1879	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3210	0.2240	0.2580	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1000	0.1140	0.1091	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2410	0.2413	0.2412	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0710	0.9590	0.9982	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.168

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260507_BAL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	691723
playerID	691723
playerName	Coby Mayo
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	BAL
teamID	3

Blaze Alexander (677942) · BATTER · 3B · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 24

All-history rows before 20260508: 24

System season_avg: 0.2150

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2152

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.083	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.083	0.000	0.917	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.292	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.292	4.000	-0.292	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.294	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.215	0.250	0.118	0.083
predicted_BB	0.208	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.208	0.000	0.792	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.790	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.708	1.000	0.292	0.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.320	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.271	0.250	0.229	0.250
predicted_R	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.309	0.667	0.667	Hitting_SLG	0.241	0.250	0.426	0.417
predicted_SO	1.083	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.083	1.000	-0.083	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.083	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.292	-
predicted_AVG	0.294	-
predicted_BB	0.208	-
predicted_H	0.790	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.320	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.110	-
predicted_SLG	0.309	-
predicted_SO	1.083	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.065	-0.018
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.442	0.150
predicted_AVG	0.294	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.150	-0.058
predicted_H	0.949	0.159
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.320	-0.000
predicted_R	0.211	-0.122
predicted_RBI	0.129	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.309	0.000
predicted_SO	1.123	0.040

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.44), rates preserved: AVG=0.276 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 24

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	7.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	6.000	0.3684	0.3684	0.3684	0.3684	0.0526	0.0000	0.3158
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	11.000	0.2424	0.2857	0.2727	0.2424	0.0303	0.0606	0.3333
season	0.20	24	-	79.000	17.000	2.000	2.000	8.000	5.000	26.000	0.2152	0.2706	0.2405	0.2152	0.0253	0.0633	0.3291

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0550
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.5230
predicted_AVG	0.2937
predicted_BB	0.1190
predicted_H	1.0350
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.3199
predicted_R	0.1460
predicted_RBI	0.1390
predicted_SLG	0.3093
predicted_SO	1.1440

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0830	0.0550	0.0648	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2920	3.5230	3.4421	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2940	0.2937	0.2938	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2080	0.1190	0.1502	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7900	1.0350	0.9492	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3200	0.3199	0.3199	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.1460	0.2114	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1100	0.1390	0.1289	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3090	0.3093	0.3092	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0830	1.1440	1.1226	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	24
Season rows before report date	24
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	24
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.215

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B-3B
gameID	20260505_BAL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	677942
playerID	677942
playerName	Blaze Alexander
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	BAL
teamID	3

Jeremiah Jackson (669236) · BATTER · 2B · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 32

All-history rows before 20260508: 32

System season_avg: 0.2540

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2542

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.094	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.094	0.000	-0.094	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.688	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.688	3.000	0.312	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.188	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.254	0.333	-0.004	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.094	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.094	1.000	-0.094	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.031	0.000	-0.031	0.000
predicted_H	0.590	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.938	1.000	0.062	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.188	0.000	-0.188	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.219	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.276	0.500	-0.026	-0.250
predicted_R	0.312	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.312	0.000	-0.312	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.750	0.000	-0.750	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.031	0.000	-0.031	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.262	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.432	0.333	-0.182	-0.083
predicted_SO	0.812	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.812	1.000	1.188	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.094	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.688	-
predicted_AVG	0.188	-
predicted_BB	0.094	-
predicted_H	0.590	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.219	-
predicted_R	0.312	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.262	-
predicted_SO	0.812	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.068	-0.026
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.723	0.035
predicted_AVG	0.188	0.000
predicted_BB	0.126	0.032
predicted_H	0.664	0.074
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.068	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.219	0.000
predicted_R	0.173	-0.139
predicted_RBI	0.308	0.038
predicted_SLG	0.262	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.748	-0.064

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.72), rates preserved: AVG=0.178 HR/AB=0.018

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	0.1579	0.2000	0.1579	0.1579	0.0000	0.0000	0.0526	0.1579
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	8.000	0.1892	0.2105	0.2973	0.1892	0.0270	0.1351	0.0270	0.2162
season	0.20	32	-	118.000	30.000	3.000	6.000	24.000	10.000	3.000	26.000	0.2542	0.2764	0.4322	0.2542	0.0508	0.2034	0.0254	0.2203

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0540
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7420
predicted_AVG	0.1881
predicted_BB	0.1430
predicted_H	0.7040
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0730
predicted_OBP	0.2190
predicted_R	0.0990
predicted_RBI	0.3290
predicted_SLG	0.2616
predicted_SO	0.7140

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0940	0.0540	0.0680	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6880	3.7420	3.7231	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1880	0.1881	0.1881	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0940	0.1430	0.1258	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5900	0.7040	0.6641	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0730	0.0684	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2190	0.2190	0.2190	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3120	0.0990	0.1735	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.3290	0.3084	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2620	0.2616	0.2617	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8120	0.7140	0.7483	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.254

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260507_BAL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	669236
playerID	669236
playerName	Jeremiah Jackson
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	BAL
teamID	3

Leody Taveras (665750) · BATTER · CF · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 23

All-history rows before 20260508: 23

System season_avg: 0.2860

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2857

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.217	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.217	1.000	-0.217	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.043	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_AB	3.348	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.348	3.000	-0.348	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.243	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.286	0.333	-0.286	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.652	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.652	1.000	0.348	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_H	0.730	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.957	1.000	-0.957	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.087	0.000	-0.087	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.357	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.402	0.500	-0.152	-0.250
predicted_R	0.478	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.478	1.000	-0.478	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.480	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.783	0.000	-0.783	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.455	0.667	-0.455	-0.667
predicted_SO	0.652	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.652	0.000	0.348	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.217	-
predicted_3B	0.043	-
predicted_AB	3.348	-
predicted_AVG	0.243	-
predicted_BB	0.652	-
predicted_H	0.730	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.357	-
predicted_R	0.478	-
predicted_RBI	0.480	-
predicted_SLG	0.370	-
predicted_SO	0.652	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.267	0.050
predicted_3B	0.043	0.000
predicted_AB	3.398	0.050
predicted_AVG	0.243	0.000
predicted_BB	0.625	-0.027
predicted_H	0.796	0.066
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.019	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.357	0.000
predicted_R	0.356	-0.122
predicted_RBI	0.523	0.043
predicted_SLG	0.370	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.647	-0.005

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.40), rates preserved: AVG=0.234 HR/AB=0.006

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 23

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	0.2353	0.3500	0.3529	0.2353	0.0000	0.1177	0.1765	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	8.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	6.000	3.000	6.000	7.000	0.2286	0.3415	0.3429	0.2286	0.0000	0.1714	0.1714	0.2000
season	0.20	23	-	77.000	22.000	5.000	1.000	2.000	18.000	11.000	15.000	15.000	0.2857	0.4022	0.4545	0.2857	0.0260	0.2338	0.1948	0.1948

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2940
predicted_3B	0.0430
predicted_AB	3.4250
predicted_AVG	0.2430
predicted_BB	0.6110
predicted_H	0.8320
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0180
predicted_OBP	0.3575
predicted_R	0.2910
predicted_RBI	0.5470
predicted_SLG	0.3697
predicted_SO	0.6450

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2170	0.2940	0.2671	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0430	0.0430	0.0430	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3480	3.4250	3.3980	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2430	0.2430	0.2430	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6520	0.6110	0.6253	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7300	0.8320	0.7963	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0180	0.0187	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3570	0.3575	0.3573	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4780	0.2910	0.3564	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4800	0.5470	0.5235	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3700	0.3697	0.3698	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6520	0.6450	0.6474	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	23
Season rows before report date	23
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	23
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.286

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260506_BAL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	665750
playerID	665750
playerName	Leody Taveras
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	BAL
teamID	3

Tyler O'Neill (641933) · BATTER · RF · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 13

All-history rows before 20260508: 13

System season_avg: 0.2000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.077	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.077	4.000	0.923	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.172	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.200	0.250	0.050	0.000
predicted_BB	0.615	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.615	0.000	0.385	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.615	1.000	0.385	0.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.363	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.360	0.250	0.040	0.150
predicted_R	0.692	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.692	0.000	-0.692	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.385	1.000	-0.385	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.187	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.275	0.250	-0.025	0.000
predicted_SO	0.846	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.846	1.000	1.154	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.077	-
predicted_AVG	0.172	-
predicted_BB	0.615	-
predicted_H	0.500	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.363	-
predicted_R	0.692	-
predicted_RBI	0.230	-
predicted_SLG	0.187	-
predicted_SO	0.846	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.001	-0.076
predicted_AVG	0.172	0.000
predicted_BB	0.732	0.117
predicted_H	0.506	0.006
predicted_HBP	0.096	-
predicted_HR	0.013	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.363	0.000
predicted_R	0.583	-0.109
predicted_RBI	0.234	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.187	0.000
predicted_SO	0.928	0.083

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.08), rates preserved: AVG=0.164 HR/AB=0.004

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	5.000	0.1429	0.3684	0.1429	0.1429	0.0000	0.0714	0.3571	0.3571
last_10	0.35	10	-	31.000	6.000	0.000	2.000	6.000	6.000	10.000	0.1935	0.3590	0.1935	0.1935	0.0000	0.0645	0.1935	0.3226
season	0.20	13	-	40.000	8.000	1.000	5.000	9.000	8.000	11.000	0.2000	0.3600	0.2750	0.2000	0.0250	0.1250	0.2000	0.2750

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.9600
predicted_AVG	0.1720
predicted_BB	0.7950
predicted_H	0.5090
predicted_HBP	0.0960
predicted_HR	0.0150
predicted_OBP	0.3634
predicted_R	0.5240
predicted_RBI	0.2360
predicted_SLG	0.1870
predicted_SO	0.9730

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0770	2.9600	3.0009	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1720	0.1720	0.1720	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6150	0.7950	0.7320	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5000	0.5090	0.5059	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0960	0.0960	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0150	0.0132	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3630	0.3634	0.3633	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6920	0.5240	0.5828	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2300	0.2360	0.2339	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1870	0.1870	0.1870	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8460	0.9730	0.9285	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.2

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260507_BAL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	641933
playerID	641933
playerName	Tyler O'Neill
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	BAL
teamID	3

Taylor Ward (621493) · BATTER · LF · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 37

All-history rows before 20260508: 37

System season_avg: 0.2780

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2782

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.351	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.351	0.000	-0.351	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.595	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.595	3.000	-0.595	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.159	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.278	0.000	0.055	0.333
predicted_BB	0.946	2.000	2.000	Hitting_BB	0.946	1.000	1.054	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_H	0.570	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.440	0.600	0.600	Hitting_OBP	0.429	0.250	0.171	0.350
predicted_R	0.703	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.703	1.000	0.297	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.324	0.000	-0.324	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.183	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.398	0.000	-0.065	0.333
predicted_SO	0.784	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.784	2.000	-0.784	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.351	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.595	-
predicted_AVG	0.159	-
predicted_BB	0.946	-
predicted_H	0.570	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.440	-
predicted_R	0.703	-
predicted_RBI	0.230	-
predicted_SLG	0.183	-
predicted_SO	0.784	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.160	-0.191
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.159	-0.436
predicted_AVG	0.159	-0.000
predicted_BB	1.289	0.343
predicted_H	0.501	-0.069
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.003	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.440	0.000
predicted_R	1.105	0.402
predicted_RBI	0.201	-0.029
predicted_SLG	0.183	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.909	0.125

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.60), rates preserved: AVG=0.139 HR/AB=0.001

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	2.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	8.000	8.000	5.000	0.1429	0.4545	0.1429	0.1429	0.0000	0.0714	0.5714	0.3571
last_10	0.35	10	-	27.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	12.000	15.000	10.000	0.1111	0.4286	0.1111	0.1111	0.0000	0.0370	0.5556	0.3704
season	0.20	37	-	133.000	37.000	13.000	1.000	12.000	26.000	35.000	29.000	0.2782	0.4294	0.3985	0.2782	0.0075	0.0902	0.2632	0.2180

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0570
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.9240
predicted_AVG	0.1588
predicted_BB	1.4740
predicted_H	0.4640
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.0040
predicted_OBP	0.4404
predicted_R	1.3210
predicted_RBI	0.1850
predicted_SLG	0.1829
predicted_SO	0.9760

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3510	0.0570	0.1599	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5950	2.9240	3.1589	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1590	0.1588	0.1589	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.9460	1.4740	1.2892	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5700	0.4640	0.5011	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0040	0.0026	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4400	0.4404	0.4403	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7030	1.3210	1.1047	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2300	0.1850	0.2007	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1830	0.1829	0.1829	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7840	0.9760	0.9088	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.278

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260507_BAL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	621493
playerID	621493
playerName	Taylor Ward
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	BAL
teamID	3

Gunnar Henderson (683002) · BATTER · SS · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 37

All-history rows before 20260508: 37

System season_avg: 0.2010

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2013

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.162	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.162	0.000	-0.162	0.000
predicted_3B	0.027	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_AB	4.297	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	4.297	5.000	0.703	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.187	0.200	0.200	Hitting_AVG	0.201	0.200	-0.001	0.000
predicted_BB	0.324	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.324	0.000	-0.324	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_H	0.770	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.865	1.000	0.135	0.000
predicted_HR	0.080	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.243	0.000	0.757	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.205	0.200	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.260	0.200	-0.060	0.000
predicted_R	0.622	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.622	0.000	0.378	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.310	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	0.541	1.000	1.459	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.135	0.000	-0.135	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.271	0.800	0.800	Hitting_SLG	0.421	0.200	0.379	0.600
predicted_SO	1.459	3.000	3.000	Hitting_SO	1.459	1.000	1.541	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.162	-
predicted_3B	0.027	-
predicted_AB	4.297	-
predicted_AVG	0.187	-
predicted_BB	0.324	-
predicted_H	0.770	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.205	-
predicted_R	0.622	-
predicted_RBI	0.310	-
predicted_SLG	0.271	-
predicted_SO	1.459	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.126	-0.036
predicted_3B	0.013	-0.014
predicted_AB	4.467	0.170
predicted_AVG	0.187	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.182	-0.142
predicted_H	0.823	0.053
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.085	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.205	-0.000
predicted_R	0.477	-0.145
predicted_RBI	0.333	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.271	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.486	0.027

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.47), rates preserved: AVG=0.184 HR/AB=0.019

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 4.297

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	24.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	8.000	0.1667	0.1667	0.1667	0.1667	0.0000	0.0417	0.0000	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	44.000	9.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	5.000	1.000	14.000	0.2045	0.2222	0.3182	0.2046	0.0227	0.0909	0.0227	0.3182
season	0.20	37	-	159.000	32.000	6.000	1.000	9.000	20.000	23.000	12.000	54.000	0.2013	0.2601	0.4214	0.2013	0.0566	0.1258	0.0755	0.3396

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1070
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	4.5590
predicted_AVG	0.1869
predicted_BB	0.1050
predicted_H	0.8520
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0880
predicted_OBP	0.2048
predicted_R	0.3990
predicted_RBI	0.3450
predicted_SLG	0.2707
predicted_SO	1.5010

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1620	0.1070	0.1263	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0270	0.0060	0.0134	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.2970	4.5590	4.4673	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1870	0.1869	0.1869	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3240	0.1050	0.1817	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7700	0.8520	0.8233	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0880	0.0852	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2050	0.2048	0.2049	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6220	0.3990	0.4770	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3100	0.3450	0.3327	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2710	0.2707	0.2708	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4590	1.5010	1.4863	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.201

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260507_BAL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	683002
playerID	683002
playerName	Gunnar Henderson
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	BAL
teamID	3

Pete Alonso (624413) · BATTER · 1B · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 38

All-history rows before 20260508: 38

System season_avg: 0.2250

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2254

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.263	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.263	0.000	-0.263	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.737	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.737	4.000	0.263	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.313	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.225	0.250	0.025	0.000
predicted_BB	0.553	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.553	0.000	-0.553	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.120	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.842	1.000	0.158	0.000
predicted_HR	0.260	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.184	0.000	-0.184	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.395	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.329	0.250	0.071	0.150
predicted_R	0.684	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.684	0.000	0.316	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.990	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.553	1.000	0.447	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.651	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.444	0.250	-0.194	0.000
predicted_SO	1.053	3.000	3.000	Hitting_SO	1.053	1.000	1.947	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.263	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.737	-
predicted_AVG	0.313	-
predicted_BB	0.553	-
predicted_H	1.120	-
predicted_HR	0.260	-
predicted_OBP	0.395	-
predicted_R	0.684	-
predicted_RBI	0.990	-
predicted_SLG	0.651	-
predicted_SO	1.053	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.390	0.127
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.760	0.023
predicted_AVG	0.313	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.524	-0.029
predicted_H	1.158	0.038
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.269	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.395	0.000
predicted_R	0.979	0.295
predicted_RBI	1.020	0.030
predicted_SLG	0.651	0.000
predicted_SO	1.034	-0.019

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.76), rates preserved: AVG=0.308 HR/AB=0.071

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	7.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	6.000	2.000	6.000	0.3500	0.4091	0.6500	0.3500	0.0500	0.3000	0.1000	0.3000
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	11.000	4.000	4.000	11.000	13.000	6.000	8.000	0.3143	0.4146	0.7714	0.3143	0.1143	0.3143	0.1714	0.2286
season	0.20	38	-	142.000	32.000	10.000	7.000	21.000	26.000	21.000	40.000	0.2254	0.3293	0.4437	0.2253	0.0493	0.1479	0.1479	0.2817

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.4590
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7720
predicted_AVG	0.3126
predicted_BB	0.5080
predicted_H	1.1790
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.2730
predicted_OBP	0.3951
predicted_R	1.1380
predicted_RBI	1.0360
predicted_SLG	0.6512
predicted_SO	1.0240

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2630	0.4590	0.3904	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7370	3.7720	3.7597	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3130	0.3126	0.3127	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5530	0.5080	0.5237	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1200	1.1790	1.1583	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2600	0.2730	0.2685	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3950	0.3951	0.3951	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6840	1.1380	0.9791	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.9900	1.0360	1.0199	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6510	0.6512	0.6511	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0530	1.0240	1.0341	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.225

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260507_BAL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	624413
playerID	624413
playerName	Pete Alonso
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	BAL
teamID	3

Kyle Bradish (680694) · PITCHER · Starter · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 7

All-history rows before 20260508: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	5.000	5.000	-	Pitching_ER	2.714	5.000	2.286	0.000
predicted_IP	2.200	2.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.757	4.000	-2.557	-1.800
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	5.000	4.000	-3.000	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 2.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	25.100	13.000	33.000	15.000	25.000	4.000	4.6184	1.8947	0.5132	1.3026	0.5921	0.9868	0.1579
last_10	0.35	7	34.000	19.000	41.000	21.000	35.000	5.000	5.0294	1.8235	0.5588	1.2059	0.6177	1.0294	0.1471
season	0.20	7	34.000	19.000	41.000	21.000	35.000	5.000	5.0294	1.8235	0.5588	1.2059	0.6177	1.0294	0.1471

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	3.0310
predicted_ER	2.6910
predicted_ERA	4.8445
predicted_H	6.2470
predicted_HR	0.7600
predicted_IP	5.0000
predicted_SO	5.0510
predicted_WHIP	1.8555

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	3.0310	2.3201	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	5.0000	2.6910	3.4992	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.8445	4.8445	form_only
predicted_H	6.0000	6.2470	6.1605	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.7600	0.8440	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	2.2000	5.0000	4.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	5.0510	3.9832	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.8555	1.8555	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.2
H	6
R	5
ER	5
BB	1
SO	2
HR	1
BF	17
Pitches	65

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	4
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	21
Pitching_ER	5
Pitching_ERA	5.03
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	4
Pitching_H	6
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	4.0
Pitching_Pitches	89
Pitching_R	5
Pitching_SO	4
Pitching_Strikes	51
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260502_BAL@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	680694
playerID	680694
playerName	Kyle Bradish
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	BAL
teamID	3

Yennier Cano (666974) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 18

All-history rows before 20260508: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.622	2.000	0.578	-0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.611	0.000	0.389	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	0.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.0000	0.1875	0.0000	0.1875	0.0000	0.3750	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.200	1.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	1.0385	0.4615	0.1154	0.3462	0.1154	0.4615	0.1154
season	0.20	18	14.000	2.000	6.000	1.000	11.000	1.000	1.2857	0.5000	0.1429	0.4286	0.0714	0.7857	0.0714

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.0510
predicted_ER	0.0640
predicted_ERA	0.6206
predicted_H	0.2720
predicted_HR	0.0510
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.4550
predicted_WHIP	0.3459

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0510	0.0331	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.0640	0.0416	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.6206	0.6206	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.2720	0.1768	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0510	0.0331	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.0000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.4550	0.6458	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.3459	0.3459	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.29
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	23
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	16
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_BAL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	666974
playerID	666974
playerName	Yennier Cano
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BAL
teamID	3

Andrew Kittredge (552640) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 6

All-history rows before 20260508: 6

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.167	0.000	-0.167	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.583	0.200	0.417	0.800
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.200	7.000	11.000	2.000	6.000	1.000	17.1818	3.5455	1.9091	3.0000	0.5454	1.6364	0.2727
last_10	0.35	6	4.200	7.000	11.000	2.000	6.000	1.000	13.5000	2.7857	1.5000	2.3571	0.4286	1.2857	0.2143
season	0.20	6	4.200	7.000	11.000	2.000	6.000	1.000	13.5000	2.7857	1.5000	2.3571	0.4286	1.2857	0.2143

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3210
predicted_ER	1.1230
predicted_ERA	15.1568
predicted_H	1.7640
predicted_HR	0.1600
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.9620
predicted_WHIP	3.1276

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3210	0.2087	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	1.1230	1.0799	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	15.1568	15.1568	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.7640	1.4966	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1600	0.1040	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.9620	0.6253	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	3.1276	3.1276	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	12

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	13.50
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_BAL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	552640
playerID	552640
playerName	Andrew Kittredge
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BAL
teamID	3

Keegan Akin (669211) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 6

All-history rows before 20260508: 6

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.167	0.000	-0.167	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.867	1.000	0.133	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.833	1.000	1.167	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	1.000	5.000	3.000	1.000	1.9286	1.0714	0.2143	1.0714	0.6429	0.2143
last_10	0.35	6	5.200	7.000	11.000	5.000	2.000	11.1176	1.9412	1.2353	1.9412	0.8823	0.3529
season	0.20	6	5.200	7.000	11.000	5.000	2.000	11.1176	1.9412	1.2353	1.9412	0.8823	0.3529

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.0000
predicted_ER	0.7760
predicted_ERA	6.9825
predicted_H	1.5500
predicted_HR	0.2910
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.7750
predicted_WHIP	1.5498

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.7760	0.8544	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	6.9825	6.9825	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	1.5500	1.7075	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.2910	0.5392	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.7750	1.2037	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5498	1.5498	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	2
HR	1
BF	5
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	11.12
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	24
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	17
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_BAL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	669211
playerID	669211
playerName	Keegan Akin
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BAL
teamID	3

Rico Garcia (670329) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 18

All-history rows before 20260508: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.867	1.000	-0.667	-0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.056	1.000	-0.056	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	0.000	0.0000	0.5000	0.0000	0.0000	0.5000	1.2500	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	1.000	1.000	3.000	11.000	1.000	0.9643	0.4286	0.1071	0.1071	0.3214	1.1786	0.1071
season	0.20	18	17.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	19.000	1.000	0.5294	0.4118	0.0588	0.0588	0.3529	1.1177	0.0588

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3470
predicted_ER	0.0420
predicted_ERA	0.4434
predicted_H	0.0420
predicted_HR	0.0420
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0190
predicted_WHIP	0.4574

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.3470	0.9255	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.0420	0.0273	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.4434	0.4434	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.0420	0.0273	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0420	0.0273	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0190	1.0124	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.4574	0.4574	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	2
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.53
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_BAL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	670329
playerID	670329
playerName	Rico Garcia
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BAL
teamID	3

Dietrich Enns (608650) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 6

All-history rows before 20260508: 6

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_IP	0.100	0.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.100	2.000	-1.000	-1.900
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.500	1.000	-0.500	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 0.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.100	1.000	3.000	6.000	8.000	1.4211	1.4211	0.1579	0.4737	0.9474	1.2632
last_10	0.35	6	8.000	2.000	4.000	7.000	9.000	2.2500	1.3750	0.2500	0.5000	0.8750	1.1250
season	0.20	6	8.000	2.000	4.000	7.000	9.000	2.2500	1.3750	0.2500	0.5000	0.8750	1.1250

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.2100
predicted_ER	0.2780
predicted_ERA	1.8770
predicted_H	0.6510
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.5830
predicted_WHIP	1.3957

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	1.2100	0.7865	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2780	0.1807	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.8770	1.8770	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6510	0.4232	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	1.1000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.5830	1.3790	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3957	1.3957	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	12

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.25
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	19
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	14
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_BAL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	608650
playerID	608650
playerName	Dietrich Enns
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BAL
teamID	3

Lou Trivino (642152) · PITCHER · Reliever · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 1

All-history rows before 20260508: 1

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	6.000	6.000	-5.000	-5.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.200	0.200	1.000	1.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP
last_5	0.45	1	0.200	6.000	4.000	3.000	81.0000	10.5000	9.0000	6.0000	4.5000
last_10	0.35	1	0.200	6.000	4.000	3.000	81.0000	10.5000	9.0000	6.0000	4.5000
season	0.20	1	0.200	6.000	4.000	3.000	81.0000	10.5000	9.0000	6.0000	4.5000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	3.0000
predicted_ER	6.0000
predicted_ERA	81.0000
predicted_H	4.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.0000
predicted_WHIP	10.5000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	3.0000	1.9500	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	6.0000	4.2500	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	81.0000	81.0000	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	4.0000	3.3000	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0000	0.3500	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	0.2000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.0000	0.3500	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	10.5000	10.5000	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	1
HR	1
BF	5
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	9
Pitching_ER	6
Pitching_ERA	81.00
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	31
Pitching_R	6
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	15
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_BAL@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	642152
playerID	642152
playerName	Lou Trivino
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BAL
teamID	3

20260508_PIT@SF

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 1, "confidence": 0.6554358179905084, "home_win_probability": 0.34456418200949157, "away_win_probability": 0.6554358179905084, "predicted_score_text": "PIT 4 - 1 SF", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to final winner probability with starter-quality caps.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "predicted_score_text": "PIT 4 - 2 SF", "confidence": 0.6554358179905084, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score", "final_prediction_synced": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "score_text": "PIT 4 - 2 SF", "winner": "PIT"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 1, "score_text": "PIT 4 - 1 SF", "winner": "PIT"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": -1, "total_run_delta": -1, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"}}

Away Team: PIT

Joey Bart (663698) · BATTER · C · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 15

All-history rows before 20260508: 15

System season_avg: 0.2290

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2292

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.067	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.200	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.200	4.000	0.800	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.288	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.229	0.500	-0.229	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.133	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.820	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.733	2.000	-0.733	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.133	1.000	-0.133	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.275	0.500	-0.275	-0.500
predicted_R	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.400	1.000	-0.400	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.200	1.000	-0.200	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.480	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.375	1.250	-0.375	-1.250
predicted_SO	1.133	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.133	1.000	-1.133	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.067	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.200	-
predicted_AVG	0.288	-
predicted_BB	0.133	-
predicted_H	0.820	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.400	-
predicted_RBI	0.180	-
predicted_SLG	0.480	-
predicted_SO	1.133	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.053	-0.014
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.187	-0.013
predicted_AVG	0.288	0.000
predicted_BB	0.085	-0.048
predicted_H	0.883	0.063
predicted_HBP	0.013	-
predicted_HR	0.181	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.305	-0.000
predicted_R	0.422	0.022
predicted_RBI	0.194	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.480	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.004	-0.129

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.20), rates preserved: AVG=0.276 HR/AB=0.057

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, BvP AVG=0.167)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	0.3333	0.3333	0.5333	0.3333	0.0667	0.0667	0.0000	0.2667
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	9.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	1.000	10.000	0.2647	0.2857	0.4706	0.2647	0.0588	0.0588	0.0294	0.2941
season	0.20	15	-	48.000	11.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	6.000	2.000	17.000	0.2292	0.2745	0.3750	0.2292	0.0417	0.0625	0.0417	0.3542

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0460
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.1800
predicted_AVG	0.2885
predicted_BB	0.0590
predicted_H	0.9170
predicted_HBP	0.0130
predicted_HR	0.1870
predicted_OBP	0.3049
predicted_R	0.4340
predicted_RBI	0.2010
predicted_SLG	0.4797
predicted_SO	0.9340

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0670	0.0460	0.0533	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2000	3.1800	3.1870	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2880	0.2885	0.2883	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1330	0.0590	0.0849	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8200	0.9170	0.8831	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0130	0.0130	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.1870	0.1810	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3049	0.3049	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4000	0.4340	0.4221	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1800	0.2010	0.1937	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4800	0.4797	0.4798	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1330	0.9340	1.0036	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.229

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260507_PIT@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	663698
playerID	663698
playerName	Joey Bart
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	PIT
teamID	22

Jared Triolo (669707) · BATTER · 3B · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 8

All-history rows before 20260508: 8

System season_avg: 0.2000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.750	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.750	4.000	0.250	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.216	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_BB	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.810	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.750	0.000	-0.750	0.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.275	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.273	0.000	-0.273	0.000
predicted_R	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.279	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.267	0.000	-0.267	0.000
predicted_SO	0.750	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.750	1.000	-0.750	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.750	-
predicted_AVG	0.216	-
predicted_BB	0.250	-
predicted_H	0.810	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.275	-
predicted_R	0.250	-
predicted_RBI	0.170	-
predicted_SLG	0.279	-
predicted_SO	0.750	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.235	-0.015
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.648	-0.102
predicted_AVG	0.216	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.235	-0.015
predicted_H	0.788	-0.022
predicted_HBP	0.066	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.275	0.000
predicted_R	0.235	-0.015
predicted_RBI	0.164	-0.006
predicted_SLG	0.279	0.000
predicted_SO	0.829	0.079

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.75), rates preserved: AVG=0.210 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.2353	0.2778	0.2941	0.2353	0.0588	0.0588	0.2941
last_10	0.35	8	-	30.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	6.000	0.2000	0.2727	0.2667	0.2000	0.0333	0.0667	0.2000
season	0.20	8	-	30.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	6.000	0.2000	0.2727	0.2667	0.2000	0.0333	0.0667	0.2000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2270
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.5930
predicted_AVG	0.2159
predicted_BB	0.2270
predicted_H	0.7760
predicted_HBP	0.0660
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.2750
predicted_R	0.2270
predicted_RBI	0.1610
predicted_SLG	0.2790
predicted_SO	0.8710

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.2270	0.2351	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7500	3.5930	3.6480	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2160	0.2159	0.2159	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2500	0.2270	0.2351	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8100	0.7760	0.7879	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0660	0.0660	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2750	0.2750	0.2750	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2500	0.2270	0.2351	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1700	0.1610	0.1642	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2790	0.2790	0.2790	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7500	0.8710	0.8286	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.2

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260507_PIT@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	669707
playerID	669707
playerName	Jared Triolo
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	PIT
teamID	22

Bryan Reynolds (668804) · BATTER · LF · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 37

All-history rows before 20260508: 37

System season_avg: 0.2580

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2576

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.135	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.135	0.000	-0.135	0.000
predicted_3B	0.054	1.000	1.000	Hitting_3B	0.054	0.000	0.946	1.000
predicted_AB	3.568	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.568	3.000	-0.568	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.264	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.258	0.000	0.076	0.333
predicted_BB	0.838	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.838	1.000	0.162	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.910	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.919	0.000	0.081	1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.108	0.000	-0.108	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.425	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.404	0.250	0.096	0.250
predicted_R	0.730	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.730	1.000	0.270	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.595	0.000	0.405	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.054	0.000	-0.054	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.404	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SLG	0.417	0.000	0.583	1.000
predicted_SO	1.162	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.162	0.000	-1.162	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.135	-
predicted_3B	0.054	-
predicted_AB	3.568	-
predicted_AVG	0.264	-
predicted_BB	0.838	-
predicted_H	0.910	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.425	-
predicted_R	0.730	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.404	-
predicted_SO	1.162	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.192	0.056
predicted_3B	0.048	-0.006
predicted_AB	3.445	-0.123
predicted_AVG	0.264	0.000
predicted_BB	0.903	0.065
predicted_H	0.898	-0.012
predicted_HBP	0.010	-
predicted_HR	0.056	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.425	-0.000
predicted_R	0.790	0.060
predicted_RBI	0.378	-0.002
predicted_SLG	0.404	0.000
predicted_SO	1.078	-0.084

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.57), rates preserved: AVG=0.252 HR/AB=0.016

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, BvP AVG=0.333)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	1.000	1.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	5.000	5.000	0.2500	0.4286	0.3125	0.2500	0.0000	0.0625	0.3125	0.3125
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	10.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	9.000	9.000	10.000	0.2857	0.4318	0.5143	0.2857	0.0286	0.1429	0.2571	0.2857
season	0.20	37	-	132.000	34.000	5.000	2.000	4.000	22.000	27.000	31.000	43.000	0.2576	0.4036	0.4167	0.2576	0.0303	0.1667	0.2349	0.3258

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2220
predicted_3B	0.0440
predicted_AB	3.3790
predicted_AVG	0.2640
predicted_BB	0.9380
predicted_H	0.8920
predicted_HBP	0.0100
predicted_HR	0.0540
predicted_OBP	0.4247
predicted_R	0.8220
predicted_RBI	0.3770
predicted_SLG	0.4040
predicted_SO	1.0330

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1350	0.2220	0.1915	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0540	0.0440	0.0475	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5680	3.3790	3.4451	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2640	0.2640	0.2640	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.8380	0.9380	0.9030	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9100	0.8920	0.8983	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0100	0.0100	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0540	0.0561	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4250	0.4247	0.4248	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7300	0.8220	0.7898	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.3770	0.3780	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4040	0.4040	0.4040	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1620	1.0330	1.0781	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	1
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.258

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260507_PIT@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	668804
playerID	668804
playerName	Bryan Reynolds
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	PIT
teamID	22

Nick Gonzales (693304) · BATTER · 2B · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 31

All-history rows before 20260508: 31

System season_avg: 0.3140

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3140

Diff (system - data): -0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.161	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.161	0.000	-0.161	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.903	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.903	3.000	0.097	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.295	0.750	0.750	Hitting_AVG	0.314	0.000	0.436	0.750
predicted_BB	0.226	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.226	0.000	-0.226	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.032	0.000	-0.032	0.000
predicted_H	1.110	3.000	3.000	Hitting_H	1.226	0.000	1.774	3.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.383	0.750	0.750	Hitting_OBP	0.366	0.250	0.384	0.500
predicted_R	0.452	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.452	0.000	0.548	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.430	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.548	0.000	-0.548	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.065	0.000	-0.065	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.322	0.750	0.750	Hitting_SLG	0.355	0.000	0.395	0.750
predicted_SO	0.806	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.806	1.000	-0.806	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.161	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.903	-
predicted_AVG	0.295	-
predicted_BB	0.226	-
predicted_H	1.110	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.383	-
predicted_R	0.452	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.322	-
predicted_SO	0.806	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.123	-0.038
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.827	-0.076
predicted_AVG	0.295	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.317	0.091
predicted_H	1.114	0.004
predicted_HBP	0.180	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.383	0.000
predicted_R	0.425	-0.027
predicted_RBI	0.429	-0.001
predicted_SLG	0.322	0.000
predicted_SO	0.826	0.020

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.90), rates preserved: AVG=0.285 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.903

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	5.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	0.2632	0.3636	0.2632	0.2632	0.1053	0.1053	0.2105
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	12.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	4.000	9.000	0.3243	0.4186	0.3784	0.3243	0.1081	0.1081	0.2432
season	0.20	31	-	121.000	38.000	5.000	17.000	14.000	7.000	25.000	0.3140	0.3664	0.3554	0.3140	0.1405	0.0578	0.2066

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1030
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7860
predicted_AVG	0.2947
predicted_BB	0.3660
predicted_H	1.1160
predicted_HBP	0.1800
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.3834
predicted_R	0.4100
predicted_RBI	0.4290
predicted_SLG	0.3220
predicted_SO	0.8370

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1610	0.1030	0.1233	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9030	3.7860	3.8270	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2950	0.2947	0.2948	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2260	0.3660	0.3170	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1100	1.1160	1.1139	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1800	0.1800	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3830	0.3834	0.3833	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4520	0.4100	0.4247	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.4290	0.4294	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3220	0.3220	0.3220	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8060	0.8370	0.8262	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	3
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.314

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260506_PIT@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	693304
playerID	693304
playerName	Nick Gonzales
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	PIT
teamID	22

Konnor Griffin (804606) · BATTER · SS · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 30

All-history rows before 20260508: 30

System season_avg: 0.2590

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2589

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_3B	0.067	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_AB	3.733	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.733	4.000	-0.733	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.340	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.259	0.000	-0.259	0.000
predicted_BB	0.300	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.300	0.000	0.700	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.967	0.000	-0.967	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.404	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.325	0.000	-0.075	0.250
predicted_R	0.433	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.433	0.000	-0.433	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.267	0.000	-0.267	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.568	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.393	0.000	-0.393	0.000
predicted_SO	1.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.167	2.000	-1.167	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.067	-
predicted_AB	3.733	-
predicted_AVG	0.340	-
predicted_BB	0.300	-
predicted_H	1.140	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.404	-
predicted_R	0.433	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.568	-
predicted_SO	1.167	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.326	0.159
predicted_3B	0.114	0.047
predicted_AB	3.687	-0.046
predicted_AVG	0.340	0.000
predicted_BB	0.352	0.052
predicted_H	1.209	0.069
predicted_HBP	0.013	-
predicted_HR	0.045	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.404	0.000
predicted_R	0.438	0.005
predicted_RBI	0.406	0.026
predicted_SLG	0.568	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.139	-0.028

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.73), rates preserved: AVG=0.324 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	7.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	6.000	0.3889	0.4500	0.6667	0.3889	0.0000	0.1111	0.1111	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	12.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	5.000	4.000	10.000	0.3243	0.3902	0.5405	0.3243	0.0270	0.1081	0.1081	0.2703
season	0.20	30	-	112.000	29.000	5.000	2.000	2.000	15.000	13.000	9.000	35.000	0.2589	0.3252	0.3929	0.2589	0.0179	0.1339	0.0804	0.3125

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.4110
predicted_3B	0.1390
predicted_AB	3.6620
predicted_AVG	0.3403
predicted_BB	0.3800
predicted_H	1.2460
predicted_HBP	0.0130
predicted_HR	0.0480
predicted_OBP	0.4041
predicted_R	0.4410
predicted_RBI	0.4200
predicted_SLG	0.5678
predicted_SO	1.1240

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.4110	0.3256	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0670	0.1390	0.1138	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7330	3.6620	3.6868	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3400	0.3403	0.3402	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3000	0.3800	0.3520	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1400	1.2460	1.2089	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0130	0.0130	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0480	0.0452	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4040	0.4041	0.4041	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4330	0.4410	0.4382	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.4200	0.4060	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5680	0.5678	0.5679	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1670	1.1240	1.1391	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.259

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260507_PIT@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	804606
playerID	804606
playerName	Konnor Griffin
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	PIT
teamID	22

Billy Cook (695257) · BATTER · RF · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 5

All-history rows before 20260508: 5

System season_avg: 0.1430

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1429

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.800	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.800	4.000	0.200	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.143	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.143	0.000	0.190	0.333
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.330	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.400	0.000	0.600	1.000
predicted_HR	0.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.143	0.333	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.143	0.000	0.190	0.333
predicted_R	0.400	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.400	0.000	0.600	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.000	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.143	1.333	1.333	Hitting_SLG	0.143	0.000	1.190	1.333
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.800	-
predicted_AVG	0.143	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.330	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.143	-
predicted_R	0.400	-
predicted_RBI	0.000	-
predicted_SLG	0.143	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.800	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.143	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.376	0.045
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.143	-0.000
predicted_R	0.400	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.143	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	0.000

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.80), rates preserved: AVG=0.134 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	3.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 5

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total R	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	0.1429	0.1429	0.1429	0.1429	0.3571
last_10	0.35	5	-	14.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	0.1429	0.1429	0.1429	0.1429	0.3571
season	0.20	5	-	14.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	0.1429	0.1429	0.1429	0.1429	0.3571

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.8000
predicted_AVG	0.1429
predicted_BB	0.0000
predicted_H	0.4000
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.1429
predicted_R	0.4000
predicted_RBI	0.0000
predicted_SLG	0.1429
predicted_SO	1.0000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.8000	2.8000	2.8000	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1430	0.1429	0.1429	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3300	0.4000	0.3755	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1430	0.1429	0.1429	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4000	0.4000	0.4000	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1430	0.1429	0.1429	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	5
Season rows before report date	5
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	5
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.143

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260507_PIT@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	695257
playerID	695257
playerName	Billy Cook
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	PIT
teamID	22

Nick Yorke (694377) · BATTER · 1B · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 16

All-history rows before 20260508: 16

System season_avg: 0.2130

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2131

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.812	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.812	3.000	0.188	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.158	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.213	0.000	-0.213	0.000
predicted_BB	0.312	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.312	0.000	-0.312	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.510	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.812	0.000	-0.812	0.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.211	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.290	0.000	-0.290	0.000
predicted_R	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.188	0.000	-0.188	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.273	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.295	0.000	-0.295	0.000
predicted_SO	0.875	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.875	2.000	0.125	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.812	-
predicted_AVG	0.158	-
predicted_BB	0.312	-
predicted_H	0.510	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.211	-
predicted_R	0.250	-
predicted_RBI	0.220	-
predicted_SLG	0.273	-
predicted_SO	0.875	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.084	-0.041
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.991	0.179
predicted_AVG	0.158	0.000
predicted_BB	0.255	-0.057
predicted_H	0.598	0.088
predicted_HBP	0.062	-
predicted_HR	0.127	0.017
predicted_OBP	0.211	0.000
predicted_R	0.282	0.032
predicted_RBI	0.262	0.042
predicted_SLG	0.273	0.000
predicted_SO	0.940	0.065

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.99), rates preserved: AVG=0.150 HR/AB=0.032

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 3.812

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	0.1429	0.1818	0.2857	0.1429	0.0476	0.0952	0.0476	0.2381
last_10	0.35	10	-	41.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	10.000	0.1463	0.2045	0.2439	0.1463	0.0244	0.0488	0.0488	0.2439
season	0.20	16	-	61.000	13.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	5.000	14.000	0.2131	0.2899	0.2951	0.2131	0.0164	0.0492	0.0820	0.2295

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0620
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.0880
predicted_AVG	0.1581
predicted_BB	0.2240
predicted_H	0.6460
predicted_HBP	0.0620
predicted_HR	0.1360
predicted_OBP	0.2114
predicted_R	0.2990
predicted_RBI	0.2850
predicted_SLG	0.2730
predicted_SO	0.9750

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1250	0.0620	0.0840	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8120	4.0880	3.9914	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1580	0.1581	0.1581	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3120	0.2240	0.2548	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5100	0.6460	0.5984	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0620	0.0620	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1360	0.1269	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2110	0.2114	0.2113	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2500	0.2990	0.2818	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2200	0.2850	0.2622	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2730	0.2730	0.2730	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8750	0.9750	0.9400	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.213

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260426_PIT@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	694377
playerID	694377
playerName	Nick Yorke
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	PIT
teamID	22

Marcell Ozuna (542303) · BATTER · DH · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 29

All-history rows before 20260508: 29

System season_avg: 0.1880

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1880

Diff (system - data): -0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.103	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.103	0.000	-0.103	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.034	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.034	4.000	-0.034	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.248	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.188	0.250	-0.188	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.310	0.000	-0.310	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.960	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.759	1.000	-0.759	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.103	0.000	-0.103	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.322	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.252	0.250	-0.252	-0.250
predicted_R	0.345	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.345	0.000	-0.345	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.710	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.448	0.000	-0.448	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.397	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.291	0.250	-0.291	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.103	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.103	0.000	0.897	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.103	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.034	-
predicted_AVG	0.248	-
predicted_BB	0.310	-
predicted_H	0.960	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.322	-
predicted_R	0.345	-
predicted_RBI	0.710	-
predicted_SLG	0.397	-
predicted_SO	1.103	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.132	0.029
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.981	-0.053
predicted_AVG	0.248	0.000
predicted_BB	0.397	0.087
predicted_H	0.973	0.013
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.149	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.322	0.000
predicted_R	0.496	0.151
predicted_RBI	0.719	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.397	0.000
predicted_SO	1.033	-0.070

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.03), rates preserved: AVG=0.241 HR/AB=0.037

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=21.0, BvP AVG=0.238)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 4.034

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	4.000	3.000	4.000	0.3158	0.4091	0.5263	0.3158	0.0526	0.2632	0.1579	0.2105
last_10	0.35	10	-	41.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	4.000	3.000	12.000	0.1951	0.2500	0.2927	0.1951	0.0244	0.1220	0.0732	0.2927
season	0.20	29	-	117.000	22.000	3.000	3.000	13.000	10.000	9.000	32.000	0.1880	0.2520	0.2906	0.1880	0.0256	0.1111	0.0769	0.2735

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1480
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.9520
predicted_AVG	0.2480
predicted_BB	0.4430
predicted_H	0.9800
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.1480
predicted_OBP	0.3220
predicted_R	0.5770
predicted_RBI	0.7240
predicted_SLG	0.3974
predicted_SO	0.9950

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1030	0.1480	0.1322	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0340	3.9520	3.9807	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2480	0.2480	0.2480	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3100	0.4430	0.3965	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9600	0.9800	0.9730	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1480	0.1487	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3220	0.3220	0.3220	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3450	0.5770	0.4958	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7100	0.7240	0.7191	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3970	0.3974	0.3973	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1030	0.9950	1.0328	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.188

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260506_PIT@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	542303
playerID	542303
playerName	Marcell Ozuna
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	PIT
teamID	22

Oneil Cruz (665833) · BATTER · CF · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 35

All-history rows before 20260508: 35

System season_avg: 0.2470

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2467

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.171	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.171	0.000	-0.171	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.286	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.286	3.000	-0.286	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.199	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.247	0.000	0.003	0.250
predicted_BB	0.343	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.343	1.000	-0.343	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.057	0.000	-0.057	0.000
predicted_H	0.800	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.057	0.000	-0.057	1.000
predicted_HR	0.080	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.257	0.000	0.743	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.267	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.311	0.400	-0.061	-0.150
predicted_R	0.714	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.714	0.000	0.286	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.450	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.800	0.000	0.200	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.371	1.000	-0.371	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.275	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SLG	0.467	0.000	0.533	1.000
predicted_SO	1.571	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.571	1.000	-0.571	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.171	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.286	-
predicted_AVG	0.199	-
predicted_BB	0.343	-
predicted_H	0.800	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.267	-
predicted_R	0.714	-
predicted_RBI	0.450	-
predicted_SLG	0.275	-
predicted_SO	1.571	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.104	-0.067
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.287	0.001
predicted_AVG	0.199	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.291	-0.052
predicted_H	0.834	0.034
predicted_HBP	0.137	-
predicted_HR	0.084	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.267	0.000
predicted_R	0.595	-0.119
predicted_RBI	0.469	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.275	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.429	-0.142

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.29), rates preserved: AVG=0.195 HR/AB=0.020

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 4.286

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	0.1905	0.2609	0.1905	0.1905	0.0000	0.0952	0.0476	0.2381
last_10	0.35	10	-	44.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	6.000	3.000	17.000	0.1818	0.2500	0.2727	0.1818	0.0227	0.0909	0.0682	0.3864
season	0.20	35	-	150.000	37.000	6.000	9.000	28.000	25.000	12.000	55.000	0.2467	0.3110	0.4667	0.2467	0.0600	0.1867	0.0800	0.3667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0680
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.2870
predicted_AVG	0.1987
predicted_BB	0.2630
predicted_H	0.8520
predicted_HBP	0.1370
predicted_HR	0.0860
predicted_OBP	0.2671
predicted_R	0.5310
predicted_RBI	0.4800
predicted_SLG	0.2745
predicted_SO	1.3530

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1710	0.0680	0.1041	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.2860	4.2870	4.2866	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1990	0.1987	0.1988	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3430	0.2630	0.2910	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8000	0.8520	0.8338	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1370	0.1370	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0860	0.0839	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2670	0.2671	0.2671	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7140	0.5310	0.5950	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4500	0.4800	0.4695	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2750	0.2745	0.2747	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.5710	1.3530	1.4293	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.247

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260507_PIT@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	665833
playerID	665833
playerName	Oneil Cruz
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	PIT
teamID	22

Carmen Mlodzinski (669387) · PITCHER · Starter · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 7

All-history rows before 20260508: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	2.571	5.000	-2.571	-5.000
predicted_IP	3.200	3.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.557	5.200	-1.357	-2.000
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	-	Pitching_SO	5.714	10.000	-1.714	-6.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 3.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	25.000	14.000	27.000	10.000	27.000	1.000	5.0400	1.4800	0.5600	1.0800	0.4000	1.0800	0.0400
last_10	0.35	7	34.000	18.000	38.000	13.000	40.000	1.000	4.7647	1.5000	0.5294	1.1177	0.3824	1.1765	0.0294
season	0.20	7	34.000	18.000	38.000	13.000	40.000	1.000	4.7647	1.5000	0.5294	1.1177	0.3824	1.1765	0.0294

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.9510
predicted_ER	2.7160
predicted_ERA	4.8886
predicted_H	5.5040
predicted_HR	0.1710
predicted_IP	5.0000
predicted_SO	5.6650
predicted_WHIP	1.4910

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	1.9510	1.9682	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	2.7160	1.7654	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.8886	4.8886	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	5.5040	4.6276	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1710	0.1112	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	3.2000	5.0000	4.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	4.0000	5.6650	5.0823	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4910	1.4910	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	3.2
H	3
R	0
ER	0
BB	2
SO	4
HR	0
BF	20
Pitches	82

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	28
Pitching_ER	5
Pitching_ERA	4.76
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	8
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.2
Pitching_Pitches	101
Pitching_R	5
Pitching_SO	10
Pitching_Strikes	67
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260502_CIN@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	669387
playerID	669387
playerName	Carmen Mlodzinski
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	PIT
teamID	22

Dennis Santana (642701) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 17

All-history rows before 20260508: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.412	0.000	0.588	1.000
predicted_IP	2.100	2.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.953	1.000	1.147	1.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.588	0.000	0.412	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 2.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	6.000	8.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	11.5714	2.5714	1.2857	1.7143	0.8571	0.2143	0.4286
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	7.000	11.000	7.000	4.000	2.000	6.5172	1.8621	0.7241	1.1379	0.7241	0.4138	0.2069
season	0.20	17	16.200	7.000	12.000	9.000	10.000	2.000	3.7800	1.2600	0.4200	0.7200	0.5400	0.6000	0.1200

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.7470
predicted_ER	0.9160
predicted_ERA	8.2441
predicted_H	1.3140
predicted_HR	0.2890
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.3610
predicted_WHIP	2.0609

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.7470	0.8356	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.9160	0.9454	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	8.2441	8.2441	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.3140	1.2041	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2890	0.1878	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	2.1000	1.0000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.3610	0.5847	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	2.0609	2.0609	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.1
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	24

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.78
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_PIT@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	642701
playerID	642701
playerName	Dennis Santana
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PIT
teamID	22

Gregory Soto (642397) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 19

All-history rows before 20260508: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.158	0.000	-0.158	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.963	1.000	0.037	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.316	1.000	0.684	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	0.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.000	0.0000	0.3750	0.0000	0.1875	0.1875	0.9375	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	2.000	4.000	2.000	12.000	0.000	1.7419	0.5806	0.1935	0.3871	0.1935	1.1613	0.0000
season	0.20	19	19.000	3.000	6.000	7.000	25.000	1.000	1.4211	0.6842	0.1579	0.3158	0.3684	1.3158	0.0526

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2260
predicted_ER	0.0990
predicted_ERA	0.8939
predicted_H	0.2830
predicted_HR	0.0110
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0910
predicted_WHIP	0.5088

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2260	0.1469	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.0990	0.0644	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.8939	0.8939	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.2830	0.1840	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0110	0.0072	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.0910	1.4091	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.5088	0.5088	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.42
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_PIT@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	642397
playerID	642397
playerName	Gregory Soto
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PIT
teamID	22

Isaac Mattson (676755) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 18

All-history rows before 20260508: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.389	0.000	-0.389	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.828	0.100	0.172	0.900
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.722	1.000	0.278	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.100	5.000	3.000	3.000	3.000	13.5000	1.8000	1.5000	0.9000	0.9000	0.9000
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	5.000	7.000	4.000	6.000	4.8214	1.1786	0.5357	0.7500	0.4286	0.6429
season	0.20	18	17.000	7.000	15.000	9.000	13.000	3.7059	1.4118	0.4118	0.8823	0.5294	0.7647

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5620
predicted_ER	0.8030
predicted_ERA	8.5037
predicted_H	0.7170
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.6660
predicted_WHIP	1.5049

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5620	0.3653	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.8030	0.5220	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	8.5037	8.5037	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7170	0.4661	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.6660	0.7829	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5049	1.5049	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	1
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.71
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	6
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	4
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_PIT@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	676755
playerID	676755
playerName	Isaac Mattson
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PIT
teamID	22

Mason Montgomery (682254) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 15

All-history rows before 20260508: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.793	0.200	0.207	0.800
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.467	0.000	-1.467	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	0.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	0.000	0.0000	0.8571	0.0000	0.2143	0.6429	0.6429	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	0.000	5.000	4.000	12.000	0.000	0.0000	0.9643	0.0000	0.5357	0.4286	1.2857	0.0000
season	0.20	15	14.000	5.000	12.000	8.000	22.000	1.000	3.2143	1.4286	0.3571	0.8571	0.5714	1.5714	0.0714

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5540
predicted_ER	0.0710
predicted_ERA	0.6429
predicted_H	0.4550
predicted_HR	0.0140
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0540
predicted_WHIP	1.0089

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5540	0.3601	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.0710	0.0461	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.6429	0.6429	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.4550	0.2958	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0140	0.0091	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.0540	0.6851	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0089	1.0089	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	9

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.21
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_PIT@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	682254
playerID	682254
playerName	Mason Montgomery
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PIT
teamID	22

Home Team: SF

Luis Arraez (650333) · BATTER · 2B · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 34

All-history rows before 20260508: 34

System season_avg: 0.3160

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3158

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.206	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.206	2.000	-0.206	-2.000
predicted_3B	0.059	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_AB	3.912	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.912	3.000	0.088	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.354	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.316	0.667	-0.066	-0.417
predicted_BB	0.176	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.176	0.000	-0.176	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.350	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.235	2.000	-0.235	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.359	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.340	0.667	-0.090	-0.417
predicted_R	0.412	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.412	2.000	-0.412	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.324	0.000	-0.324	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.508	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.398	1.333	-0.148	-1.083
predicted_SO	0.176	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.176	0.000	0.824	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.206	-
predicted_3B	0.059	-
predicted_AB	3.912	-
predicted_AVG	0.354	-
predicted_BB	0.176	-
predicted_H	1.350	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.359	-
predicted_R	0.412	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.508	-
predicted_SO	0.176	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.466	0.260
predicted_3B	0.028	-0.031
predicted_AB	4.039	0.127
predicted_AVG	0.354	0.000
predicted_BB	0.086	-0.090
predicted_H	1.418	0.068
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.359	0.000
predicted_R	0.441	0.029
predicted_RBI	0.409	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.508	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.188	0.012

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.04), rates preserved: AVG=0.351 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.912

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	8.000	4.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	0.3810	0.3810	0.5714	0.3810	0.0952	0.0000	0.0476
last_10	0.35	10	-	41.000	14.000	6.000	0.000	5.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	0.3415	0.3415	0.4878	0.3415	0.1220	0.0000	0.0488
season	0.20	34	-	133.000	42.000	7.000	2.000	11.000	14.000	6.000	6.000	0.3158	0.3404	0.3985	0.3158	0.0827	0.0451	0.0451

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.6060
predicted_3B	0.0120
predicted_AB	4.1070
predicted_AVG	0.3541
predicted_BB	0.0370
predicted_H	1.4540
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.3591
predicted_R	0.4560
predicted_RBI	0.4190
predicted_SLG	0.5076
predicted_SO	0.1950

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2060	0.6060	0.4660	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0590	0.0120	0.0284	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9120	4.1070	4.0388	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3540	0.3541	0.3541	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1760	0.0370	0.0856	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.3500	1.4540	1.4176	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3590	0.3591	0.3591	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4120	0.4560	0.4406	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.4190	0.4088	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5080	0.5076	0.5077	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.1760	0.1950	0.1883	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.316

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	2
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	1
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260504_SD@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	650333
playerID	650333
playerName	Luis Arraez
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	SF
teamID	24

Jung Hoo Lee (808982) · BATTER · RF · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 36

All-history rows before 20260508: 36

System season_avg: 0.2650

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2652

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.222	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.222	0.000	0.778	1.000
predicted_3B	0.028	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_AB	3.670	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.667	4.000	0.333	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.148	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.265	0.000	-0.015	0.250
predicted_BB	0.278	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.278	0.000	-0.278	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.550	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.972	0.000	0.028	1.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.193	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.315	0.000	-0.065	0.250
predicted_R	0.417	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.417	0.000	-0.417	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.210	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.306	0.000	-0.306	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.191	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.386	0.000	0.114	0.500
predicted_SO	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.222	-
predicted_3B	0.028	-
predicted_AB	3.670	-
predicted_AVG	0.148	-
predicted_BB	0.278	-
predicted_H	0.550	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.193	-
predicted_R	0.417	-
predicted_RBI	0.210	-
predicted_SLG	0.191	-
predicted_SO	0.500	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.108	-0.114
predicted_3B	0.036	0.008
predicted_AB	3.760	0.090
predicted_AVG	0.148	0.000
predicted_BB	0.238	-0.040
predicted_H	0.560	0.010
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.011	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.193	0.000
predicted_R	0.349	-0.068
predicted_RBI	0.218	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.191	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.390	-0.110

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.76), rates preserved: AVG=0.149 HR/AB=0.003

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	0.0526	0.1000	0.0526	0.0526	0.0000	0.0526	0.0526	0.0526
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	8.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	4.000	0.2051	0.2439	0.2564	0.2051	0.0000	0.0513	0.0513	0.1026
season	0.20	36	-	132.000	35.000	8.000	1.000	2.000	11.000	15.000	10.000	18.000	0.2652	0.3147	0.3864	0.2651	0.0152	0.0833	0.0758	0.1364

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0460
predicted_3B	0.0400
predicted_AB	3.8080
predicted_AVG	0.1485
predicted_BB	0.2160
predicted_H	0.5660
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0120
predicted_OBP	0.1933
predicted_R	0.3130
predicted_RBI	0.2220
predicted_SLG	0.1907
predicted_SO	0.3310

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2220	0.0460	0.1076	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0280	0.0400	0.0358	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6700	3.8080	3.7597	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1480	0.1485	0.1483	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2780	0.2160	0.2377	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5500	0.5660	0.5604	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0120	0.0113	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1930	0.1933	0.1932	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4170	0.3130	0.3494	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2100	0.2220	0.2178	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1910	0.1907	0.1908	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5000	0.3310	0.3901	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.265

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260506_SD@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	808982
playerID	808982
playerName	Jung Hoo Lee
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	SF
teamID	24

Matt Chapman (656305) · BATTER · 3B · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 36

All-history rows before 20260508: 36

System season_avg: 0.2340

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2336

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_3B	0.028	1.000	1.000	Hitting_3B	0.028	0.000	0.972	1.000
predicted_AB	3.806	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.806	3.000	0.194	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.077	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.234	0.000	0.016	0.250
predicted_BB	0.389	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.389	0.000	-0.389	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_H	0.280	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.889	0.000	0.111	1.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.151	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.309	0.000	-0.059	0.250
predicted_R	0.444	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.444	0.000	0.556	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.060	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.113	0.750	0.750	Hitting_SLG	0.314	0.000	0.436	0.750
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.028	-
predicted_AB	3.806	-
predicted_AVG	0.077	-
predicted_BB	0.389	-
predicted_H	0.280	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.151	-
predicted_R	0.444	-
predicted_RBI	0.060	-
predicted_SLG	0.113	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.127	-0.040
predicted_3B	0.013	-0.015
predicted_AB	3.735	-0.071
predicted_AVG	0.077	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.353	-0.036
predicted_H	0.283	0.003
predicted_HBP	0.042	-
predicted_HR	0.003	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.151	0.000
predicted_R	0.283	-0.161
predicted_RBI	0.063	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.113	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.259	0.259

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.81), rates preserved: AVG=0.074 HR/AB=0.001

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	1.000	1.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.806

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	7.000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.3684
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	3.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	7.000	16.000	0.0857	0.2558	0.1429	0.0857	0.0000	0.0000	0.2000	0.4571
season	0.20	36	-	137.000	32.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	12.000	16.000	14.000	36.000	0.2336	0.3092	0.3139	0.2336	0.0073	0.0876	0.1022	0.2628

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1060
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.6960
predicted_AVG	0.0767
predicted_BB	0.3340
predicted_H	0.2840
predicted_HBP	0.0420
predicted_HR	0.0050
predicted_OBP	0.1514
predicted_R	0.1970
predicted_RBI	0.0650
predicted_SLG	0.1128
predicted_SO	1.3980

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.1060	0.1274	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0280	0.0050	0.0130	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8060	3.6960	3.7345	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.0770	0.0767	0.0768	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3890	0.3340	0.3533	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.2800	0.2840	0.2826	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0420	0.0420	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0050	0.0033	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1510	0.1514	0.1513	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4440	0.1970	0.2834	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0600	0.0650	0.0633	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1130	0.1128	0.1129	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.3980	1.2587	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	1
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.234

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260506_SD@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	656305
playerID	656305
playerName	Matt Chapman
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	SF
teamID	24

Rafael Devers (646240) · BATTER · 1B · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 37

All-history rows before 20260508: 37

System season_avg: 0.2210

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2214

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.162	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.162	0.000	-0.162	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.784	2.000	2.000	Hitting_AB	3.784	3.000	-1.784	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.272	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.221	0.333	-0.221	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.243	2.000	2.000	Hitting_BB	0.243	0.000	1.757	2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.990	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.838	1.000	-0.838	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.081	1.000	-0.081	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.329	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.265	0.333	0.235	0.167
predicted_R	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.270	1.000	-0.270	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.720	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.405	1.000	-0.405	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.329	1.333	-0.329	-1.333
predicted_SO	1.216	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.216	1.000	-0.216	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.162	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.784	-
predicted_AVG	0.272	-
predicted_BB	0.243	-
predicted_H	0.990	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.329	-
predicted_R	0.270	-
predicted_RBI	0.720	-
predicted_SLG	0.500	-
predicted_SO	1.216	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.267	0.105
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.480	-0.304
predicted_AVG	0.272	0.000
predicted_BB	0.328	0.085
predicted_H	0.934	-0.056
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-0.010
predicted_OBP	0.329	0.000
predicted_R	0.318	0.047
predicted_RBI	0.682	-0.038
predicted_SLG	0.500	0.000
predicted_SO	1.019	-0.197

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.78), rates preserved: AVG=0.247 HR/AB=0.040

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-2.000
BB	2.000	2.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	5.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	0.3125	0.3684	0.6250	0.3125	0.0625	0.2500	0.1250	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	32.000	8.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	3.000	4.000	9.000	0.2500	0.3158	0.4375	0.2500	0.0312	0.1875	0.1250	0.2812
season	0.20	37	-	140.000	31.000	6.000	3.000	15.000	10.000	9.000	45.000	0.2214	0.2649	0.3286	0.2214	0.0214	0.1071	0.0643	0.3214

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3240
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.3170
predicted_AVG	0.2724
predicted_BB	0.3740
predicted_H	0.9040
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1440
predicted_OBP	0.3293
predicted_R	0.3430
predicted_RBI	0.6620
predicted_SLG	0.5001
predicted_SO	0.9130

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1620	0.3240	0.2673	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7840	3.3170	3.4804	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2720	0.2724	0.2723	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2430	0.3740	0.3281	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9900	0.9040	0.9341	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.1440	0.1496	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3290	0.3293	0.3292	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2700	0.3430	0.3175	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7200	0.6620	0.6823	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5000	0.5001	0.5001	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2160	0.9130	1.0191	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.221

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260506_SD@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	646240
playerID	646240
playerName	Rafael Devers
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	SF
teamID	24

Casey Schmitt (669477) · BATTER · DH · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 31

All-history rows before 20260508: 31

System season_avg: 0.2960

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2957

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.258	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.258	0.000	-0.258	0.000
predicted_3B	0.032	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.032	0.000	-0.032	0.000
predicted_AB	3.710	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.710	4.000	0.290	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.282	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.296	0.000	-0.296	0.000
predicted_BB	0.161	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.161	0.000	-0.161	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.032	0.000	-0.032	0.000
predicted_H	1.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.097	0.000	-1.097	0.000
predicted_HR	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.194	0.000	-0.194	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.326	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.344	0.000	-0.344	0.000
predicted_R	0.452	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.452	0.000	-0.452	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.730	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.581	0.000	-0.581	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.065	0.000	-0.065	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.576	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.539	0.000	-0.539	0.000
predicted_SO	0.839	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.839	2.000	0.161	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.258	-
predicted_3B	0.032	-
predicted_AB	3.710	-
predicted_AVG	0.282	-
predicted_BB	0.161	-
predicted_H	1.010	-
predicted_HR	0.310	-
predicted_OBP	0.326	-
predicted_R	0.452	-
predicted_RBI	0.730	-
predicted_SLG	0.576	-
predicted_SO	0.839	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.124	-0.134
predicted_3B	0.038	0.006
predicted_AB	3.734	0.024
predicted_AVG	0.282	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.181	0.020
predicted_H	1.039	0.029
predicted_HBP	0.062	-
predicted_HR	0.319	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.326	0.000
predicted_R	0.471	0.019
predicted_RBI	0.747	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.576	0.000
predicted_SO	0.992	0.153

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.73), rates preserved: AVG=0.278 HR/AB=0.085

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	7.000	0.2632	0.3000	0.5789	0.2632	0.1053	0.2105	0.0526	0.3684
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	11.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	8.000	6.000	2.000	8.000	0.2973	0.3500	0.5946	0.2973	0.0811	0.2162	0.0541	0.2162
season	0.20	31	-	115.000	34.000	8.000	1.000	6.000	18.000	14.000	5.000	26.000	0.2957	0.3440	0.5391	0.2957	0.0522	0.1565	0.0435	0.2261

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0520
predicted_3B	0.0420
predicted_AB	3.7470
predicted_AVG	0.2816
predicted_BB	0.1920
predicted_H	1.0550
predicted_HBP	0.0620
predicted_HR	0.3230
predicted_OBP	0.3263
predicted_R	0.4810
predicted_RBI	0.7560
predicted_SLG	0.5764
predicted_SO	1.0740

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2580	0.0520	0.1241	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0320	0.0420	0.0385	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7100	3.7470	3.7340	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2820	0.2816	0.2817	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1610	0.1920	0.1812	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0100	1.0550	1.0393	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0620	0.0620	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3100	0.3230	0.3185	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3260	0.3263	0.3262	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4520	0.4810	0.4708	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7300	0.7560	0.7469	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5760	0.5764	0.5763	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8390	1.0740	0.9918	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.296

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260506_SD@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	669477
playerID	669477
playerName	Casey Schmitt
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	SF
teamID	24

Willy Adames (642715) · BATTER · SS · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 36

All-history rows before 20260508: 36

System season_avg: 0.1940

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1944

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.306	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.306	0.000	-0.306	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	3.000	-1.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.156	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.194	0.000	-0.194	0.000
predicted_BB	0.167	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.167	0.000	0.833	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_H	0.560	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.778	0.000	-0.778	0.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.171	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.232	0.000	0.018	0.250
predicted_R	0.361	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.361	0.000	-0.361	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.217	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_SO	1.306	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.306	1.000	-1.306	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.306	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.156	-
predicted_BB	0.167	-
predicted_H	0.560	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.171	-
predicted_R	0.361	-
predicted_RBI	0.030	-
predicted_SLG	0.217	-
predicted_SO	1.306	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.227	-0.079
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.896	-0.104
predicted_AVG	0.156	0.000
predicted_BB	0.102	-0.065
predicted_H	0.585	0.025
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.014	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.171	0.000
predicted_R	0.254	-0.107
predicted_RBI	0.031	0.001
predicted_SLG	0.217	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.274	-0.032

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.146 HR/AB=0.003

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	6.000	0.1579	0.1579	0.2105	0.1579	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.3158
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	13.000	0.1316	0.1538	0.1579	0.1316	0.0000	0.0000	0.0263	0.3421
season	0.20	36	-	144.000	28.000	11.000	3.000	6.000	13.000	6.000	47.000	0.1944	0.2318	0.3333	0.1944	0.0208	0.0417	0.0417	0.3264

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1850
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.8400
predicted_AVG	0.1560
predicted_BB	0.0670
predicted_H	0.5990
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0160
predicted_OBP	0.1712
predicted_R	0.1960
predicted_RBI	0.0320
predicted_SLG	0.2167
predicted_SO	1.2560

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3060	0.1850	0.2273	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0000	3.8400	3.8960	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1560	0.1560	0.1560	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1670	0.0670	0.1020	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5600	0.5990	0.5854	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0160	0.0139	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1710	0.1712	0.1711	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3610	0.1960	0.2538	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0300	0.0320	0.0313	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2170	0.2167	0.2168	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3060	1.2560	1.2735	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.194

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260506_SD@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	642715
playerID	642715
playerName	Willy Adames
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	SF
teamID	24

Heliot Ramos (671218) · BATTER · LF · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 34

All-history rows before 20260508: 34

System season_avg: 0.2520

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2519

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.235	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.235	0.000	-0.235	0.000
predicted_3B	0.029	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_AB	3.853	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.853	4.000	0.147	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.188	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.252	0.000	-0.002	0.250
predicted_BB	0.176	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.176	0.000	-0.176	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.650	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.971	0.000	0.029	1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.088	0.000	-0.088	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.199	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.283	0.000	-0.033	0.250
predicted_R	0.353	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.353	0.000	-0.353	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.412	0.000	-0.412	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.328	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.397	0.000	-0.147	0.250
predicted_SO	1.235	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.235	3.000	0.765	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.235	-
predicted_3B	0.029	-
predicted_AB	3.853	-
predicted_AVG	0.188	-
predicted_BB	0.176	-
predicted_H	0.650	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.199	-
predicted_R	0.353	-
predicted_RBI	0.100	-
predicted_SLG	0.328	-
predicted_SO	1.235	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.239	0.005
predicted_3B	0.095	0.066
predicted_AB	3.930	0.077
predicted_AVG	0.188	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.108	-0.068
predicted_H	0.712	0.062
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.019	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.199	0.000
predicted_R	0.193	-0.160
predicted_RBI	0.113	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.328	0.000
predicted_SO	1.159	-0.076

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.93), rates preserved: AVG=0.181 HR/AB=0.005

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.853

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	5.000	0.1500	0.1500	0.3000	0.1500	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	8.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	12.000	0.2000	0.2143	0.3250	0.2000	0.0000	0.0250	0.0250	0.3000
season	0.20	34	-	131.000	33.000	8.000	1.000	3.000	14.000	12.000	6.000	42.000	0.2519	0.2826	0.3969	0.2519	0.0229	0.1069	0.0458	0.3206

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2420
predicted_3B	0.1300
predicted_AB	3.9710
predicted_AVG	0.1879
predicted_BB	0.0710
predicted_H	0.7460
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0180
predicted_OBP	0.1990
predicted_R	0.1070
predicted_RBI	0.1200
predicted_SLG	0.3281
predicted_SO	1.1180

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2350	0.2420	0.2395	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0290	0.1300	0.0947	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8530	3.9710	3.9297	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1880	0.1879	0.1879	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1760	0.0710	0.1077	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6500	0.7460	0.7124	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0180	0.0187	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1990	0.1990	0.1990	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3530	0.1070	0.1931	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1000	0.1200	0.1130	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3280	0.3281	0.3281	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2350	1.1180	1.1590	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.252

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260506_SD@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	671218
playerID	671218
playerName	Heliot Ramos
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	SF
teamID	24

Jesus Rodriguez (683679) · BATTER · C · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 3

All-history rows before 20260508: 3

System season_avg: 0.4440

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.4444

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	3.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.444	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.444	0.667	-0.444	-0.667
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.333	2.000	-1.333	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.444	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.444	0.667	-0.444	-0.667
predicted_R	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.550	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.778	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.778	0.667	-0.778	-0.667
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.444	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	1.110	-
predicted_HR	0.280	-
predicted_OBP	0.444	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.550	-
predicted_SLG	0.778	-
predicted_SO	0.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.444	0.000
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.255	0.145
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.315	0.034
predicted_OBP	0.444	0.000
predicted_R	0.333	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.626	0.076
predicted_SLG	0.778	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.418 HR/AB=0.105

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 3

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB
last_5	0.45	3	-	9.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	0.4444	0.4444	0.7778	0.4444	0.1111	0.2222
last_10	0.35	3	-	9.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	0.4444	0.4444	0.7778	0.4444	0.1111	0.2222
season	0.20	3	-	9.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	0.4444	0.4444	0.7778	0.4444	0.1111	0.2222

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.0000
predicted_AVG	0.4444
predicted_BB	0.0000
predicted_H	1.3330
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.3330
predicted_OBP	0.4444
predicted_R	0.3330
predicted_RBI	0.6670
predicted_SLG	0.7778
predicted_SO	0.0000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.0000	3.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.4440	0.4444	0.4443	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1100	1.3330	1.2550	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2800	0.3330	0.3145	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4440	0.4444	0.4443	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.3330	0.3330	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5500	0.6670	0.6260	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.7780	0.7778	0.7779	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	3
Season rows before report date	3
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	3
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.444

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260506_SD@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	683679
playerID	683679
playerName	Jesus Rodriguez
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	SF
teamID	24

Drew Gilbert (687551) · BATTER · CF · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 16

All-history rows before 20260508: 16

System season_avg: 0.2800

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2800

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.062	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.125	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.125	3.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.298	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.280	0.333	-0.280	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.188	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.188	0.000	-0.188	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.790	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.875	1.000	-0.875	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.332	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.321	0.333	-0.321	-0.333
predicted_R	0.375	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.375	1.000	-0.375	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.312	0.000	-0.312	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.420	0.333	-0.420	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.625	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.625	1.000	0.375	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.062	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.125	-
predicted_AVG	0.298	-
predicted_BB	0.188	-
predicted_H	0.790	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.332	-
predicted_R	0.375	-
predicted_RBI	0.140	-
predicted_SLG	0.400	-
predicted_SO	0.625	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	0.049
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.141	0.016
predicted_AVG	0.298	0.000
predicted_BB	0.171	-0.017
predicted_H	0.887	0.097
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.057	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.332	0.000
predicted_R	0.388	0.013
predicted_RBI	0.160	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.400	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.531	-0.094

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.14), rates preserved: AVG=0.282 HR/AB=0.018

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	0.3125	0.3529	0.3750	0.3125	0.0000	0.0000	0.0625	0.1250
last_10	0.35	10	-	31.000	9.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	1.000	5.000	0.2903	0.3125	0.4194	0.2903	0.0323	0.0968	0.0323	0.1613
season	0.20	16	-	50.000	14.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	6.000	3.000	10.000	0.2800	0.3208	0.4200	0.2800	0.0400	0.1000	0.0600	0.2000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1370
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.1500
predicted_AVG	0.2982
predicted_BB	0.1620
predicted_H	0.9390
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0610
predicted_OBP	0.3323
predicted_R	0.3950
predicted_RBI	0.1700
predicted_SLG	0.3995
predicted_SO	0.4810

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0620	0.1370	0.1108	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1250	3.1500	3.1412	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2980	0.2982	0.2981	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1880	0.1620	0.1711	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7900	0.9390	0.8868	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0610	0.0571	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3320	0.3323	0.3322	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3750	0.3950	0.3880	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1400	0.1700	0.1595	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4000	0.3995	0.3997	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6250	0.4810	0.5314	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.28

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260505_SD@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	687551
playerID	687551
playerName	Drew Gilbert
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	SF
teamID	24

Robbie Ray (592662) · PITCHER · Starter · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 7

All-history rows before 20260508: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.857	3.000	1.143	0.000
predicted_IP	2.200	2.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.500	6.100	-3.300	-3.900
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	5.714	5.000	-3.714	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 2.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	29.000	9.000	20.000	11.000	29.000	5.000	2.7931	1.0690	0.3103	0.6897	0.3793	1.0000	0.1724
last_10	0.35	7	39.200	13.000	28.000	14.000	40.000	7.000	2.9496	1.0588	0.3277	0.7059	0.3529	1.0084	0.1765
season	0.20	7	39.200	13.000	28.000	14.000	40.000	7.000	2.9496	1.0588	0.3277	0.7059	0.3529	1.0084	0.1765

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.0670
predicted_ER	1.8130
predicted_ERA	2.8792
predicted_H	3.9590
predicted_HR	0.9900
predicted_IP	5.2000
predicted_SO	5.6930
predicted_WHIP	1.0634

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	2.0670	1.6936	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	1.8130	2.2284	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.8792	2.8792	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	3.9590	3.9733	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.9900	0.9935	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	2.2000	5.2000	4.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	5.6930	4.4005	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0634	1.0634	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.2
H	4
R	3
ER	3
BB	1
SO	2
HR	1
BF	17
Pitches	69

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	1
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	22
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	2.95
Pitching_Flyouts	7
Pitching_Groundouts	5
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.1
Pitching_Pitches	102
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	5
Pitching_Strikes	67
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260501_SF@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	592662
playerID	592662
playerName	Robbie Ray
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	SF
teamID	24

Ryan Walker (676254) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 15

All-history rows before 20260508: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.600	2.000	-0.600	-2.000
predicted_IP	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.853	1.000	1.147	1.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.867	0.000	-0.867	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 2.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	5.000	7.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	9.6429	2.3571	1.0714	1.5000	0.8571	0.2143	0.2143
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	7.000	13.000	6.000	8.000	1.000	6.0968	1.8387	0.6774	1.2581	0.5806	0.7742	0.0968
season	0.20	15	14.200	9.000	16.000	9.000	13.000	2.000	5.5227	1.7045	0.6136	1.0909	0.6136	0.8864	0.1364

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.7120
predicted_ER	0.8420
predicted_ERA	7.5777
predicted_H	1.3340
predicted_HR	0.1580
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.5450
predicted_WHIP	2.0451

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.7120	0.4628	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.8420	0.5473	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	7.5777	7.5777	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.3340	1.2171	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1580	0.1027	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	2.0000	1.0000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.5450	0.3543	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	2.0451	2.0451	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	5.52
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	29
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	15
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_SD@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	676254
playerID	676254
playerName	Ryan Walker
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SF
teamID	24

Keaton Winn (676775) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 16

All-history rows before 20260508: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.312	1.000	0.688	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.900	0.200	0.200	0.900
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.812	0.000	0.188	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	2.000	3.000	4.000	0.000	3.1765	1.2353	0.3529	0.5294	0.7059	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	6.000	1.8000	0.7000	0.2000	0.3000	0.4000	0.6000
season	0.20	16	15.100	5.000	7.000	6.000	13.000	2.9348	0.8478	0.3261	0.4565	0.3913	0.8478

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5360
predicted_ER	0.2940
predicted_ERA	2.6464
predicted_H	0.4350
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.3800
predicted_WHIP	0.9704

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5360	0.3484	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.2940	0.5411	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.6464	2.6464	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.4350	0.6327	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0000	0.3500	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.0000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.3800	0.5970	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9704	0.9704	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	1
HR	1
BF	4
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	2.93
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_SD@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	676775
playerID	676775
playerName	Keaton Winn
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SF
teamID	24

Caleb Kilian (668873) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 15

All-history rows before 20260508: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.133	1.000	-0.133	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.927	1.000	0.073	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.200	2.000	-0.200	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	1.000	6.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	1.5000	1.3333	0.1667	1.0000	0.3333	0.6667	0.1667
last_10	0.35	10	11.100	2.000	8.000	7.000	12.000	2.000	1.5882	1.3235	0.1765	0.7059	0.6177	1.0588	0.1765
season	0.20	15	16.000	2.000	8.000	8.000	18.000	2.000	1.1250	1.0000	0.1250	0.5000	0.5000	1.1250	0.1250

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5360
predicted_ER	0.1860
predicted_ERA	1.4559
predicted_H	0.9170
predicted_HR	0.1860
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0300
predicted_WHIP	1.2632

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5360	0.3484	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1860	0.1209	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.4559	1.4559	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9170	0.5961	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1860	0.1209	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0300	1.0195	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2632	1.2632	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	1.13
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_SD@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	668873
playerID	668873
playerName	Caleb Kilian
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SF
teamID	24

Joel Peguero (666711) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 2

All-history rows before 20260508: 2

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total H	Total SO	WHIP	H_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	2	2.000	1.000	1.000	0.5000	0.5000	0.5000
last_10	0.35	2	2.000	1.000	1.000	0.5000	0.5000	0.5000
season	0.20	2	2.000	1.000	1.000	0.5000	0.5000	0.5000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.0000
predicted_ER	0.0000
predicted_ERA	0.0000
predicted_H	0.5000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.5000
predicted_WHIP	0.5000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.5000	0.3250	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.5000	0.3250	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.5000	0.5000	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.00
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	8
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	6
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_SD@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	666711
playerID	666711
playerName	Joel Peguero
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SF
teamID	24

Matt Gage (657424) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 17

All-history rows before 20260508: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.624	0.100	0.376	0.900
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.529	0.000	0.471	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.100	0.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	0.000	0.0000	1.5000	0.0000	0.6000	0.9000	0.6000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	7.200	2.000	5.000	6.000	4.000	1.000	2.3478	1.4348	0.2609	0.6522	0.7826	0.5217	0.1304
season	0.20	17	14.100	2.000	8.000	9.000	9.000	1.000	1.2558	1.1860	0.1395	0.5581	0.6279	0.6279	0.0698

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5900
predicted_ER	0.0870
predicted_ERA	1.0729
predicted_H	0.4470
predicted_HR	0.0440
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.4240
predicted_WHIP	1.4144

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.5900	0.7335	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.0870	0.0565	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.0729	1.0729	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.4470	0.2906	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0440	0.0286	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.4240	0.6256	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4144	1.4144	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	2
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.26
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	2
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	10
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_SD@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	657424
playerID	657424
playerName	Matt Gage
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SF
teamID	24

20260508_SEA@CHW

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 6, "confidence": 0.6273139261332243, "home_win_probability": 0.6273139261332243, "away_win_probability": 0.37268607386677566, "predicted_score_text": "SEA 3 - 6 CHW", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to final winner probability with starter-quality caps.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4, "predicted_score_text": "SEA 2 - 4 CHW", "confidence": 0.6273139261332243, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score", "final_prediction_synced": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "SEA 2 - 4 CHW", "winner": "CHW"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "SEA 3 - 6 CHW", "winner": "CHW"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 1, "home_run_delta": 2, "total_run_delta": 3, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"}}

Away Team: SEA

Luke Raley (670042) · BATTER · RF · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 26

All-history rows before 20260508: 26

System season_avg: 0.2590

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2588

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.154	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_3B	0.038	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.038	0.000	-0.038	0.000
predicted_AB	3.269	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.269	1.000	0.731	3.000
predicted_AVG	0.158	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.259	0.000	-0.009	0.250
predicted_BB	0.192	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.192	0.000	-0.192	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.038	0.000	-0.038	0.000
predicted_H	0.460	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.846	0.000	0.154	1.000
predicted_HR	0.210	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.192	0.000	-0.192	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.228	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.315	0.000	-0.065	0.250
predicted_R	0.385	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.385	0.000	-0.385	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.540	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.538	0.000	-0.538	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.388	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.506	0.000	-0.256	0.250
predicted_SO	1.269	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.269	1.000	-0.269	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.154	-
predicted_3B	0.038	-
predicted_AB	3.269	-
predicted_AVG	0.158	-
predicted_BB	0.192	-
predicted_H	0.460	-
predicted_HR	0.210	-
predicted_OBP	0.228	-
predicted_R	0.385	-
predicted_RBI	0.540	-
predicted_SLG	0.388	-
predicted_SO	1.269	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.071	-0.083
predicted_3B	0.018	-0.020
predicted_AB	2.957	-0.312
predicted_AVG	0.158	0.000
predicted_BB	0.223	0.031
predicted_H	0.448	-0.012
predicted_HBP	0.013	-
predicted_HR	0.204	-0.006
predicted_OBP	0.228	0.000
predicted_R	0.337	-0.048
predicted_RBI	0.525	-0.015
predicted_SLG	0.388	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.163	-0.106

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.27), rates preserved: AVG=0.137 HR/AB=0.062

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 26

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	0.1429	0.2000	0.3571	0.1429	0.0714	0.2143	0.0714	0.4286
last_10	0.35	10	-	25.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	3.000	9.000	0.1200	0.2143	0.3600	0.1200	0.0800	0.1600	0.1200	0.3600
season	0.20	26	-	85.000	22.000	4.000	1.000	5.000	14.000	10.000	5.000	33.000	0.2588	0.3152	0.5059	0.2588	0.0588	0.1647	0.0588	0.3882

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0260
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	2.7890
predicted_AVG	0.1581
predicted_BB	0.2400
predicted_H	0.4410
predicted_HBP	0.0130
predicted_HR	0.2010
predicted_OBP	0.2280
predicted_R	0.3110
predicted_RBI	0.5170
predicted_SLG	0.3879
predicted_SO	1.1060

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1540	0.0260	0.0708	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0380	0.0070	0.0178	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2690	2.7890	2.9570	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1580	0.1581	0.1581	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1920	0.2400	0.2232	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4600	0.4410	0.4476	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0130	0.0130	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2100	0.2010	0.2041	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2280	0.2280	0.2280	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3850	0.3110	0.3369	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5400	0.5170	0.5251	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3880	0.3879	0.3879	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2690	1.1060	1.1631	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	26
Season rows before report date	26
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	26
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.259

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	1
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	1
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260505_ATL@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	670042
playerID	670042
playerName	Luke Raley
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	SEA
teamID	25

Brendan Donovan (680977) · BATTER · 3B · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 17

All-history rows before 20260508: 17

System season_avg: 0.3040

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3036

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.176	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.176	0.000	-0.176	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.294	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.294	2.000	0.706	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.287	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.304	0.000	-0.054	0.250
predicted_BB	0.471	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.471	0.000	0.529	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_H	0.950	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.176	0.000	-0.176	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.433	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.429	0.000	-0.029	0.400
predicted_R	0.412	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.412	0.000	-0.412	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.471	0.000	-0.471	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.404	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.518	0.000	-0.268	0.250
predicted_SO	0.706	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.706	0.000	-0.706	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.176	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.294	-
predicted_AVG	0.287	-
predicted_BB	0.471	-
predicted_H	0.950	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.433	-
predicted_R	0.412	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.404	-
predicted_SO	0.706	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-0.009
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.187	-0.107
predicted_AVG	0.287	0.000
predicted_BB	0.495	0.024
predicted_H	0.917	-0.033
predicted_HBP	0.346	-
predicted_HR	0.069	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.433	0.000
predicted_R	0.323	-0.089
predicted_RBI	0.423	-0.017
predicted_SLG	0.404	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.590	-0.116

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.29), rates preserved: AVG=0.278 HR/AB=0.021

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	0.3333	0.5000	0.4000	0.3333	0.0000	0.1333	0.2000	0.1333
last_10	0.35	10	-	32.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	4.000	6.000	0.2188	0.3500	0.3438	0.2188	0.0312	0.1250	0.1250	0.1875
season	0.20	17	-	56.000	17.000	3.000	3.000	8.000	7.000	8.000	12.000	0.3036	0.4286	0.5179	0.3036	0.0536	0.1429	0.1429	0.2143

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1620
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.1290
predicted_AVG	0.2873
predicted_BB	0.5080
predicted_H	0.8990
predicted_HBP	0.3460
predicted_HR	0.0680
predicted_OBP	0.4332
predicted_R	0.2750
predicted_RBI	0.4140
predicted_SLG	0.4039
predicted_SO	0.5270

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1760	0.1620	0.1669	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2940	3.1290	3.1867	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2870	0.2873	0.2872	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4710	0.5080	0.4950	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9500	0.8990	0.9168	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.3460	0.3460	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0680	0.0687	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4330	0.4332	0.4331	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4120	0.2750	0.3230	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.4140	0.4231	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4040	0.4039	0.4039	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7060	0.5270	0.5897	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.304

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260417_TEX@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	680977
playerID	680977
playerName	Brendan Donovan
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	SEA
teamID	25

Julio Rodríguez (677594) · BATTER · CF · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 38

All-history rows before 20260508: 38

System season_avg: 0.2600

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2600

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.184	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.184	0.000	-0.184	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.947	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.947	4.000	0.053	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.265	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.260	0.250	-0.260	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.342	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.342	0.000	0.658	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_H	1.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.026	1.000	-1.026	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.210	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.132	1.000	-0.132	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.300	0.200	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.327	0.250	-0.127	-0.050
predicted_R	0.474	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.474	1.000	-0.474	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.447	1.000	-0.447	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.079	0.000	-0.079	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.492	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.407	1.000	-0.407	-1.000
predicted_SO	1.000	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	2.000	1.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.184	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.947	-
predicted_AVG	0.265	-
predicted_BB	0.342	-
predicted_H	1.010	-
predicted_HR	0.210	-
predicted_OBP	0.300	-
predicted_R	0.474	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.492	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.237	0.053
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.020	0.073
predicted_AVG	0.265	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.247	-0.095
predicted_H	1.052	0.042
predicted_HBP	0.011	-
predicted_HR	0.216	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.300	-0.000
predicted_R	0.480	0.006
predicted_RBI	0.413	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.492	0.000
predicted_SO	1.001	0.001

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.02), rates preserved: AVG=0.262 HR/AB=0.054

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.947

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	0.2500	0.2857	0.4500	0.2500	0.0500	0.0500	0.0500	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	42.000	12.000	4.000	3.000	7.000	6.000	1.000	10.000	0.2857	0.3023	0.5952	0.2857	0.0714	0.1667	0.0238	0.2381
season	0.20	38	-	150.000	39.000	7.000	5.000	17.000	18.000	13.000	38.000	0.2600	0.3273	0.4067	0.2600	0.0333	0.1133	0.0867	0.2533

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2650
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.0590
predicted_AVG	0.2645
predicted_BB	0.1960
predicted_H	1.0740
predicted_HBP	0.0110
predicted_HR	0.2200
predicted_OBP	0.2998
predicted_R	0.4830
predicted_RBI	0.4200
predicted_SLG	0.4922
predicted_SO	1.0010

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1840	0.2650	0.2367	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9470	4.0590	4.0198	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2650	0.2645	0.2647	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3420	0.1960	0.2471	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0100	1.0740	1.0516	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0110	0.0110	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2100	0.2200	0.2165	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3000	0.2998	0.2999	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4740	0.4830	0.4798	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.4200	0.4130	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4920	0.4922	0.4921	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0010	1.0006	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.26

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260506_ATL@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	677594
playerID	677594
playerName	Julio Rodríguez
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	SEA
teamID	25

Josh Naylor (647304) · BATTER · 1B · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 35

All-history rows before 20260508: 35

System season_avg: 0.2340

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2336

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.086	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.086	0.000	-0.086	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.914	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.914	4.000	1.086	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.315	0.200	0.200	Hitting_AVG	0.234	0.250	-0.034	-0.050
predicted_BB	0.343	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.343	0.000	-0.343	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.057	0.000	-0.057	0.000
predicted_H	1.190	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.914	1.000	0.086	0.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.114	0.000	-0.114	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.353	0.200	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.298	0.250	-0.098	-0.050
predicted_R	0.257	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.257	1.000	0.743	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.460	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.486	0.000	0.514	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.200	1.000	-0.200	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.394	0.200	0.200	Hitting_SLG	0.343	0.250	-0.143	-0.050
predicted_SO	0.743	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.743	1.000	0.257	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.086	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.914	-
predicted_AVG	0.315	-
predicted_BB	0.343	-
predicted_H	1.190	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.353	-
predicted_R	0.257	-
predicted_RBI	0.460	-
predicted_SLG	0.394	-
predicted_SO	0.743	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.122	0.036
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.982	0.068
predicted_AVG	0.315	0.000
predicted_BB	0.269	-0.074
predicted_H	1.239	0.049
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.055	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.353	0.000
predicted_R	0.228	-0.029
predicted_RBI	0.477	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.394	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.750	0.007

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.98), rates preserved: AVG=0.311 HR/AB=0.014

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.914

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	0.3500	0.3810	0.4000	0.3500	0.0000	0.1000	0.0500	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	-	41.000	13.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	0.3171	0.3488	0.4146	0.3171	0.0244	0.1463	0.0488	0.1707
season	0.20	35	-	137.000	32.000	3.000	4.000	17.000	9.000	12.000	26.000	0.2336	0.2980	0.3431	0.2336	0.0292	0.1241	0.0876	0.1898

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1420
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.0180
predicted_AVG	0.3152
predicted_BB	0.2290
predicted_H	1.2660
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0580
predicted_OBP	0.3531
predicted_R	0.2120
predicted_RBI	0.4860
predicted_SLG	0.3937
predicted_SO	0.7540

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0860	0.1420	0.1224	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9140	4.0180	3.9816	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3150	0.3152	0.3151	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3430	0.2290	0.2689	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1900	1.2660	1.2394	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0580	0.0552	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3530	0.3531	0.3531	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2570	0.2120	0.2278	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4600	0.4860	0.4769	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3940	0.3937	0.3938	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7430	0.7540	0.7502	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.234

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260506_ATL@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	647304
playerID	647304
playerName	Josh Naylor
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	SEA
teamID	25

J.P. Crawford (641487) · BATTER · SS · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 29

All-history rows before 20260508: 29

System season_avg: 0.2080

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2079

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.103	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.103	0.000	-0.103	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.483	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.483	2.000	0.517	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.219	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.208	0.000	0.042	0.250
predicted_BB	0.828	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.828	2.000	0.172	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.034	0.000	-0.034	0.000
predicted_H	0.690	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.724	0.000	0.276	1.000
predicted_HR	0.270	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.138	0.000	0.862	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.370	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.370	0.500	0.030	-0.100
predicted_R	0.586	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.586	0.000	0.414	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.540	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.379	0.000	0.621	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.034	0.000	-0.034	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.487	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SLG	0.356	0.000	0.644	1.000
predicted_SO	0.690	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.690	0.000	1.310	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.103	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.483	-
predicted_AVG	0.219	-
predicted_BB	0.828	-
predicted_H	0.690	-
predicted_HR	0.270	-
predicted_OBP	0.370	-
predicted_R	0.586	-
predicted_RBI	0.540	-
predicted_SLG	0.487	-
predicted_SO	0.690	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.050	-0.053
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.544	0.061
predicted_AVG	0.219	0.000
predicted_BB	0.836	0.008
predicted_H	0.752	0.062
predicted_HBP	0.014	-
predicted_HR	0.297	0.027
predicted_OBP	0.370	-0.000
predicted_R	0.558	-0.028
predicted_RBI	0.585	0.045
predicted_SLG	0.487	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.621	-0.069

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.54), rates preserved: AVG=0.212 HR/AB=0.084

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	4.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	0.2222	0.3636	0.5556	0.2222	0.1111	0.2222	0.2222	0.1667
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	8.000	0.000	3.000	5.000	7.000	9.000	5.000	0.2222	0.3778	0.4722	0.2222	0.0833	0.1389	0.2500	0.1389
season	0.20	29	-	101.000	21.000	3.000	4.000	11.000	17.000	24.000	20.000	0.2079	0.3701	0.3564	0.2079	0.0396	0.1089	0.2376	0.1980

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0210
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.5770
predicted_AVG	0.2193
predicted_BB	0.8410
predicted_H	0.7850
predicted_HBP	0.0140
predicted_HR	0.3110
predicted_OBP	0.3699
predicted_R	0.5430
predicted_RBI	0.6090
predicted_SLG	0.4866
predicted_SO	0.5840

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1030	0.0210	0.0497	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4830	3.5770	3.5441	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2190	0.2193	0.2192	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.8280	0.8410	0.8364	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6900	0.7850	0.7518	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0140	0.0140	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2700	0.3110	0.2966	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3700	0.3699	0.3699	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5860	0.5430	0.5581	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5400	0.6090	0.5848	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4870	0.4866	0.4867	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6900	0.5840	0.6211	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.208

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260506_ATL@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	641487
playerID	641487
playerName	J.P. Crawford
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	SEA
teamID	25

Dominic Canzone (686527) · BATTER · DH · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 23

All-history rows before 20260508: 23

System season_avg: 0.2840

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2836

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.304	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.304	0.000	-0.304	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.913	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.913	2.000	0.087	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.318	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.284	0.500	0.050	-0.167
predicted_BB	0.261	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.261	1.000	0.739	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_H	0.780	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.826	1.000	0.174	0.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.130	0.000	-0.130	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.366	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.347	0.667	0.153	-0.167
predicted_R	0.478	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.478	1.000	-0.478	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.478	0.000	-0.478	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.470	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.522	0.500	-0.189	-0.167
predicted_SO	0.739	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.739	1.000	-0.739	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.304	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.913	-
predicted_AVG	0.318	-
predicted_BB	0.261	-
predicted_H	0.780	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.366	-
predicted_R	0.478	-
predicted_RBI	0.200	-
predicted_SLG	0.470	-
predicted_SO	0.739	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.272	-0.032
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.877	-0.036
predicted_AVG	0.318	0.000
predicted_BB	0.229	-0.032
predicted_H	0.864	0.084
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.057	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.366	0.000
predicted_R	0.437	-0.041
predicted_RBI	0.221	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.470	0.000
predicted_SO	0.853	0.114

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.91), rates preserved: AVG=0.297 HR/AB=0.019

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 23

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	0.2857	0.3333	0.3571	0.2857	0.0000	0.0000	0.0714	0.3571
last_10	0.35	10	-	29.000	11.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	2.000	9.000	0.3793	0.4194	0.5862	0.3793	0.0345	0.1379	0.0690	0.3103
season	0.20	23	-	67.000	19.000	7.000	3.000	11.000	11.000	6.000	17.000	0.2836	0.3467	0.5224	0.2836	0.0448	0.1642	0.0896	0.2537

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2550
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.8580
predicted_AVG	0.3180
predicted_BB	0.2120
predicted_H	0.9090
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.0600
predicted_OBP	0.3661
predicted_R	0.4150
predicted_RBI	0.2320
predicted_SLG	0.4703
predicted_SO	0.9150

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3040	0.2550	0.2722	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.9130	2.8580	2.8773	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3180	0.3180	0.3180	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2610	0.2120	0.2292	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7800	0.9090	0.8639	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0600	0.0565	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3660	0.3661	0.3661	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4780	0.4150	0.4370	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2000	0.2320	0.2208	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4700	0.4703	0.4702	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7390	0.9150	0.8534	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	23
Season rows before report date	23
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	23
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.284

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260504_ATL@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	686527
playerID	686527
playerName	Dominic Canzone
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	SEA
teamID	25

Cal Raleigh (663728) · BATTER · C · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 34

All-history rows before 20260508: 34

System season_avg: 0.1700

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1704

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.118	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.118	0.000	0.882	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.971	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.971	4.000	0.029	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.094	0.750	0.750	Hitting_AVG	0.170	0.000	0.580	0.750
predicted_BB	0.471	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.471	0.000	0.529	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_H	0.360	3.000	3.000	Hitting_H	0.676	0.000	2.324	3.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.206	0.000	-0.206	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.174	0.800	0.800	Hitting_OBP	0.255	0.000	0.545	0.800
predicted_R	0.382	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.382	0.000	0.618	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.340	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.216	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SLG	0.356	0.000	0.644	1.000
predicted_SO	1.382	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.382	2.000	-1.382	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.118	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.971	-
predicted_AVG	0.094	-
predicted_BB	0.471	-
predicted_H	0.360	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.174	-
predicted_R	0.382	-
predicted_RBI	0.340	-
predicted_SLG	0.216	-
predicted_SO	1.382	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.079	-0.039
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.009	0.038
predicted_AVG	0.094	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.434	-0.037
predicted_H	0.372	0.012
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.143	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.174	-0.000
predicted_R	0.296	-0.086
predicted_RBI	0.356	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.216	0.000
predicted_SO	1.613	0.231

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.01), rates preserved: AVG=0.093 HR/AB=0.036

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.971

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	10.000	0.0000	0.0870	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0500	0.1000	0.5000
last_10	0.35	10	-	41.000	7.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	5.000	4.000	16.000	0.1707	0.2391	0.4146	0.1707	0.0732	0.1220	0.0976	0.3902
season	0.20	34	-	135.000	23.000	4.000	7.000	17.000	13.000	16.000	47.000	0.1704	0.2549	0.3556	0.1704	0.0519	0.1259	0.1185	0.3482

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0580
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.0290
predicted_AVG	0.0938
predicted_BB	0.4140
predicted_H	0.3780
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1450
predicted_OBP	0.1738
predicted_R	0.2500
predicted_RBI	0.3640
predicted_SLG	0.2162
predicted_SO	1.7370

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1180	0.0580	0.0790	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9710	4.0290	4.0087	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.0940	0.0938	0.0939	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4710	0.4140	0.4339	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3600	0.3780	0.3717	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1450	0.1432	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1740	0.1738	0.1739	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3820	0.2500	0.2962	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3400	0.3640	0.3556	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2160	0.2162	0.2161	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3820	1.7370	1.6128	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	3
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260506_ATL@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	663728
playerID	663728
playerName	Cal Raleigh
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	SEA
teamID	25

Randy Arozarena (668227) · BATTER · LF · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 38

All-history rows before 20260508: 38

System season_avg: 0.2650

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2647

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.237	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.237	0.000	-0.237	0.000
predicted_3B	0.026	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_AB	3.579	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.579	4.000	1.421	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.173	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.265	0.250	-0.265	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.447	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.447	0.000	-0.447	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_H	0.590	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.947	1.000	-0.947	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.079	0.000	-0.079	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.266	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.354	0.250	-0.354	-0.250
predicted_R	0.632	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.632	0.000	-0.632	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.316	0.000	-0.316	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.211	0.000	-0.211	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.262	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.412	0.250	-0.412	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.974	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.974	1.000	0.026	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.237	-
predicted_3B	0.026	-
predicted_AB	3.579	-
predicted_AVG	0.173	-
predicted_BB	0.447	-
predicted_H	0.590	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.266	-
predicted_R	0.632	-
predicted_RBI	0.090	-
predicted_SLG	0.262	-
predicted_SO	0.974	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.137	-0.100
predicted_3B	0.036	0.010
predicted_AB	3.567	-0.012
predicted_AVG	0.173	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.446	-0.001
predicted_H	0.607	0.017
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.051	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.266	-0.000
predicted_R	0.477	-0.155
predicted_RBI	0.095	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.262	0.000
predicted_SO	1.080	0.106

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.58), rates preserved: AVG=0.170 HR/AB=0.014

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	0.1111	0.2000	0.1111	0.1111	0.0000	0.0000	0.1111	0.2778
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	5.000	14.000	0.2000	0.3000	0.3714	0.2000	0.0286	0.0286	0.1429	0.4000
season	0.20	38	-	136.000	36.000	9.000	1.000	3.000	12.000	24.000	17.000	37.000	0.2647	0.3544	0.4118	0.2647	0.0221	0.0882	0.1250	0.2721

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0830
predicted_3B	0.0410
predicted_AB	3.5610
predicted_AVG	0.1729
predicted_BB	0.4450
predicted_H	0.6160
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.0510
predicted_OBP	0.2659
predicted_R	0.3930
predicted_RBI	0.0980
predicted_SLG	0.2623
predicted_SO	1.1370

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2370	0.0830	0.1369	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0260	0.0410	0.0358	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5790	3.5610	3.5673	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1730	0.1729	0.1729	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4470	0.4450	0.4457	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5900	0.6160	0.6069	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0510	0.0507	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2660	0.2659	0.2659	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6320	0.3930	0.4767	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0900	0.0980	0.0952	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2620	0.2623	0.2622	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9740	1.1370	1.0799	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.265

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260506_ATL@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	668227
playerID	668227
playerName	Randy Arozarena
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	SEA
teamID	25

Cole Young (702284) · BATTER · 2B · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 38

All-history rows before 20260508: 38

System season_avg: 0.2760

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2761

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.158	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.158	2.000	-0.158	-2.000
predicted_3B	0.026	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_AB	3.526	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.526	4.000	-0.526	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.297	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.276	0.750	0.057	-0.417
predicted_BB	0.316	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.316	0.000	0.684	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_H	0.860	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.974	3.000	0.026	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.079	0.000	-0.079	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.330	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.342	0.750	0.158	-0.250
predicted_R	0.526	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.526	0.000	-0.526	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.526	1.000	-0.526	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.402	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.403	1.250	-0.070	-0.917
predicted_SO	0.947	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.947	1.000	0.053	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.158	-
predicted_3B	0.026	-
predicted_AB	3.526	-
predicted_AVG	0.297	-
predicted_BB	0.316	-
predicted_H	0.860	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.330	-
predicted_R	0.526	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.402	-
predicted_SO	0.947	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.261	0.103
predicted_3B	0.012	-0.014
predicted_AB	3.564	0.038
predicted_AVG	0.297	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.233	-0.083
predicted_H	0.993	0.133
predicted_HBP	0.011	-
predicted_HR	0.014	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.330	0.000
predicted_R	0.299	-0.227
predicted_RBI	0.413	0.053
predicted_SLG	0.402	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.230	0.283

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.56), rates preserved: AVG=0.278 HR/AB=0.004

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	9.000	0.2778	0.3158	0.3889	0.2778	0.0000	0.0556	0.0556	0.5000
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	12.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	11.000	0.3333	0.3421	0.4167	0.3333	0.0000	0.1944	0.0278	0.3056
season	0.20	38	-	134.000	37.000	6.000	1.000	3.000	20.000	20.000	12.000	36.000	0.2761	0.3423	0.4030	0.2761	0.0224	0.1492	0.0896	0.2687

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3160
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.5850
predicted_AVG	0.2969
predicted_BB	0.1890
predicted_H	1.0640
predicted_HBP	0.0110
predicted_HR	0.0160
predicted_OBP	0.3303
predicted_R	0.1770
predicted_RBI	0.4410
predicted_SLG	0.4015
predicted_SO	1.3830

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1580	0.3160	0.2607	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0260	0.0050	0.0123	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5260	3.5850	3.5643	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2970	0.2969	0.2969	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3160	0.1890	0.2334	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8600	1.0640	0.9926	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0110	0.0110	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0160	0.0139	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3300	0.3303	0.3302	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5260	0.1770	0.2991	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.4410	0.4127	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4020	0.4015	0.4017	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9470	1.3830	1.2304	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.276

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	2
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.75
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260506_ATL@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	702284
playerID	702284
playerName	Cole Young
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	SEA
teamID	25

Emerson Hancock (676106) · PITCHER · Starter · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 7

All-history rows before 20260508: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.714	1.000	1.286	2.000
predicted_IP	4.200	4.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.886	7.000	-1.686	-2.800
predicted_SO	6.000	6.000	-	Pitching_SO	6.571	14.000	-0.571	-8.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 4.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	29.000	11.000	28.000	5.000	32.000	6.000	3.4138	1.1379	0.3793	0.9655	0.1724	1.1035	0.2069
last_10	0.35	7	41.200	12.000	34.000	6.000	46.000	7.000	2.5920	0.9600	0.2880	0.8160	0.1440	1.1040	0.1680
season	0.20	7	41.200	12.000	34.000	6.000	46.000	7.000	2.5920	0.9600	0.2880	0.8160	0.1440	1.1040	0.1680

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.9170
predicted_ER	1.9250
predicted_ERA	2.9618
predicted_H	5.1670
predicted_HR	1.0850
predicted_IP	6.0000
predicted_SO	6.4570
predicted_WHIP	1.0401

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	0.9170	1.6460	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	1.9250	2.3012	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.9618	2.9618	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	5.1670	4.7585	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	1.0850	1.0553	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.2000	6.0000	5.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	6.0000	6.4570	6.2970	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0401	1.0401	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.2
H	4
R	3
ER	3
BB	3
SO	6
HR	1
BF	22
Pitches	91

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	27
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	2.59
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	6
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	7.0
Pitching_Pitches	103
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	14
Pitching_Strikes	74
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260502_KC@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	676106
playerID	676106
playerName	Emerson Hancock
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	SEA
teamID	25

Andrés Muñoz (662253) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 16

All-history rows before 20260508: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.625	1.000	-0.625	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.894	1.000	0.206	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.562	2.000	-0.562	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	8.000	1.000	3.6000	1.2000	0.4000	0.8000	0.4000	1.6000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	8.000	10.000	3.000	16.000	2.000	8.0000	1.4444	0.8889	1.1111	0.3333	1.7778	0.2222
season	0.20	16	15.000	10.000	14.000	7.000	25.000	3.000	6.0000	1.4000	0.6667	0.9333	0.4667	1.6667	0.2000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3900
predicted_ER	0.6240
predicted_ERA	5.6200
predicted_H	0.9360
predicted_HR	0.2080
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.6760
predicted_WHIP	1.3255

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3900	0.2535	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.6240	0.4056	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.6200	5.6200	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.9360	0.9584	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2080	0.1352	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.0000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.6760	1.4394	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3255	1.3255	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	6.00
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	23
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_ATL@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	662253
playerID	662253
playerName	Andrés Muñoz
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SEA
teamID	25

Eduard Bazardo (660825) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 18

All-history rows before 20260508: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.167	1.000	-0.167	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.744	1.000	0.256	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.722	1.000	-0.722	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	1.000	6.000	0.000	3.000	2.0769	1.3846	0.2308	1.3846	0.0000	0.6923
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	2.000	9.000	2.000	7.000	2.0000	1.2222	0.2222	1.0000	0.2222	0.7778
season	0.20	18	16.200	3.000	14.000	5.000	13.000	1.6200	1.1400	0.1800	0.8400	0.3000	0.7800

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1380
predicted_ER	0.2180
predicted_ERA	1.9586
predicted_H	1.1410
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.7400
predicted_WHIP	1.2788

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1380	0.0897	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2180	0.1417	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.9586	1.9586	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	1.1410	1.4417	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.7400	0.4810	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2788	1.2788	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	1
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	1.62
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	21
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	17
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_ATL@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	660825
playerID	660825
playerName	Eduard Bazardo
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SEA
teamID	25

José A. Ferrer (678606) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 20

All-history rows before 20260508: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.845	1.000	0.155	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.800	1.000	1.200	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	1.000	4.000	0.000	6.000	1.8000	0.8000	0.2000	0.8000	0.0000	1.2000
last_10	0.35	10	11.100	1.000	11.000	2.000	9.000	0.7941	1.1471	0.0882	0.9706	0.1765	0.7941
season	0.20	19	19.000	4.000	22.000	3.000	16.000	1.8947	1.3158	0.2105	1.1579	0.1579	0.8421

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.0930
predicted_ER	0.1630
predicted_ERA	1.4669
predicted_H	0.9310
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9860
predicted_WHIP	1.0246

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.0930	0.4104	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1630	0.1060	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.4669	1.4669	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9310	0.6052	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.9860	1.3409	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0246	1.0246	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	2
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.89
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_ATL@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	678606
playerID	678606
playerName	José A. Ferrer
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SEA
teamID	25

Cooper Criswell (681867) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 13

All-history rows before 20260508: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.308	0.000	2.692	3.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.238	1.000	-1.038	-0.800
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.154	1.000	-1.154	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	2.000	3.000	0.000	6.000	1.000	3.3750	0.5625	0.3750	0.5625	0.0000	1.1250	0.1875
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	2.000	7.000	2.000	8.000	1.000	1.7419	0.8710	0.1935	0.6774	0.1935	0.7742	0.0968
season	0.20	13	16.100	4.000	11.000	3.000	15.000	3.000	2.2041	0.8571	0.2449	0.6735	0.1837	0.9184	0.1837

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1110
predicted_ER	0.3050
predicted_ERA	2.5692
predicted_H	0.6670
predicted_HR	0.1650
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0250
predicted_WHIP	0.7294

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.1110	0.7722	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	0.3050	1.2482	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.5692	2.5692	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.6670	0.7835	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.1650	0.4572	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.0250	0.6663	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.7294	0.7294	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	1
R	3
ER	3
BB	2
SO	0
HR	1
BF	5
Pitches	23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.20
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_ATL@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	681867
playerID	681867
playerName	Cooper Criswell
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SEA
teamID	25

Home Team: CHW

Drew Romo (691011) · BATTER · C · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 6

All-history rows before 20260508: 6

System season_avg: 0.1880

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1875

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.667	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.667	2.000	0.333	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.207	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.188	0.000	0.146	0.333
predicted_BB	1.167	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	1.167	2.000	-0.167	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.460	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_HR	0.460	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.477	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.458	0.500	0.042	0.000
predicted_R	0.667	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.667	0.000	0.333	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.610	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.667	0.000	0.333	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.828	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.750	0.000	-0.417	0.333
predicted_SO	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.667	-
predicted_AVG	0.207	-
predicted_BB	1.167	-
predicted_H	0.460	-
predicted_HR	0.460	-
predicted_OBP	0.477	-
predicted_R	0.667	-
predicted_RBI	0.610	-
predicted_SLG	0.828	-
predicted_SO	0.500	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.647	-0.019
predicted_AVG	0.207	0.000
predicted_BB	1.177	0.010
predicted_H	0.516	0.056
predicted_HBP	0.182	-
predicted_HR	0.516	0.056
predicted_OBP	0.477	0.000
predicted_R	0.707	0.040
predicted_RBI	0.687	0.077
predicted_SLG	0.828	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.470	-0.030

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.67), rates preserved: AVG=0.193 HR/AB=0.193

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	-1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	13.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	4.000	6.000	2.000	0.2308	0.5000	0.9231	0.2308	0.2308	0.3077	0.4615	0.1538
last_10	0.35	6	-	16.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	4.000	7.000	3.000	0.1875	0.4583	0.7500	0.1875	0.1875	0.2500	0.4375	0.1875
season	0.20	6	-	16.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	4.000	7.000	3.000	0.1875	0.4583	0.7500	0.1875	0.1875	0.2500	0.4375	0.1875

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.6370
predicted_AVG	0.2070
predicted_BB	1.1820
predicted_H	0.5460
predicted_HBP	0.1820
predicted_HR	0.5460
predicted_OBP	0.4771
predicted_R	0.7280
predicted_RBI	0.7280
predicted_SLG	0.8279
predicted_SO	0.4540

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.6670	2.6370	2.6475	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2070	0.2070	0.2070	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	1.1670	1.1820	1.1767	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4600	0.5460	0.5159	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1820	0.1820	form_only
predicted_HR	0.4600	0.5460	0.5159	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4770	0.4771	0.4771	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6670	0.7280	0.7067	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6100	0.7280	0.6867	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.8280	0.8279	0.8279	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5000	0.4540	0.4701	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.188

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	1
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260506_CHW@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	691011
playerID	691011
playerName	Drew Romo
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	CHW
teamID	6

Jarred Kelenic (672284) · BATTER · RF · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 4

All-history rows before 20260508: 4

System season_avg: 0.3640

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3636

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.750	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	2.750	1.000	1.250	3.000
predicted_AVG	0.364	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.364	0.000	0.136	0.500
predicted_BB	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.250	1.000	-0.250	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.900	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.417	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.417	0.500	0.083	0.000
predicted_R	0.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.364	0.750	0.750	Hitting_SLG	0.364	0.000	0.386	0.750
predicted_SO	0.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.750	-
predicted_AVG	0.364	-
predicted_BB	0.250	-
predicted_H	0.900	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.417	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.000	-
predicted_SLG	0.364	-
predicted_SO	0.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.750	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.364	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.250	0.000
predicted_H	0.965	0.065
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.417	-0.000
predicted_R	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.364	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.75), rates preserved: AVG=0.351 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 4

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total BB	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	BB_per_AB
last_5	0.45	4	-	11.000	4.000	1.000	0.3636	0.4167	0.3636	0.3636	0.0909
last_10	0.35	4	-	11.000	4.000	1.000	0.3636	0.4167	0.3636	0.3636	0.0909
season	0.20	4	-	11.000	4.000	1.000	0.3636	0.4167	0.3636	0.3636	0.0909

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.7500
predicted_AVG	0.3636
predicted_BB	0.2500
predicted_H	1.0000
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.4167
predicted_R	0.0000
predicted_RBI	0.0000
predicted_SLG	0.3636
predicted_SO	0.0000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.7500	2.7500	2.7500	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3640	0.3636	0.3637	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2500	0.2500	0.2500	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9000	1.0000	0.9650	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4170	0.4167	0.4168	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3640	0.3636	0.3637	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	4
Season rows before report date	4
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	4
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.364

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	1
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260506_CHW@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	672284
playerID	672284
playerName	Jarred Kelenic
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	CHW
teamID	6

Andrew Benintendi (643217) · BATTER · DH · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 26

All-history rows before 20260508: 26

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.154	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_3B	0.077	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_AB	3.846	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.846	2.000	-0.846	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.337	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_BB	0.192	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.192	1.000	0.808	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.962	0.000	-0.962	0.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.354	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.280	0.250	-0.030	0.000
predicted_R	0.385	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.385	0.000	-0.385	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.570	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.538	1.000	-0.538	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.402	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.390	0.000	-0.390	0.000
predicted_SO	1.346	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.346	1.000	-0.346	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.154	-
predicted_3B	0.077	-
predicted_AB	3.846	-
predicted_AVG	0.337	-
predicted_BB	0.192	-
predicted_H	1.160	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.354	-
predicted_R	0.385	-
predicted_RBI	0.570	-
predicted_SLG	0.402	-
predicted_SO	1.346	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.094	-0.060
predicted_3B	0.037	-0.040
predicted_AB	3.705	-0.141
predicted_AVG	0.337	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.197	0.005
predicted_H	1.200	0.040
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.049	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.354	-0.000
predicted_R	0.331	-0.054
predicted_RBI	0.586	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.402	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.169	-0.177

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.85), rates preserved: AVG=0.312 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 26

Reference playing time: 3.846

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	7.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	0.4118	0.4211	0.4118	0.4118	0.0000	0.1177	0.0588	0.2353
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	11.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	9.000	4.000	2.000	13.000	0.2895	0.3095	0.3947	0.2895	0.0263	0.2368	0.0526	0.3421
season	0.20	26	-	100.000	25.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	14.000	10.000	5.000	35.000	0.2500	0.2804	0.3900	0.2500	0.0200	0.1400	0.0500	0.3500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0620
predicted_3B	0.0150
predicted_AB	3.6290
predicted_AVG	0.3366
predicted_BB	0.1990
predicted_H	1.2220
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0480
predicted_OBP	0.3539
predicted_R	0.3020
predicted_RBI	0.5950
predicted_SLG	0.4015
predicted_SO	1.0730

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1540	0.0620	0.0942	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0770	0.0150	0.0367	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8460	3.6290	3.7049	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3370	0.3366	0.3367	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1920	0.1990	0.1966	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1600	1.2220	1.2003	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0480	0.0487	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3540	0.3539	0.3539	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3850	0.3020	0.3310	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5700	0.5950	0.5862	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4020	0.4015	0.4017	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3460	1.0730	1.1685	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	26
Season rows before report date	26
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	26
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260506_CHW@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	643217
playerID	643217
playerName	Andrew Benintendi
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	CHW
teamID	6

Chase Meidroth (805367) · BATTER · 2B · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 34

All-history rows before 20260508: 34

System season_avg: 0.2820

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2824

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.206	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.206	0.000	-0.206	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.853	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.853	3.000	0.147	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.359	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.282	0.667	-0.032	-0.417
predicted_BB	0.471	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.471	1.000	-0.471	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.310	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.088	2.000	-0.088	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.416	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.358	0.750	-0.108	-0.500
predicted_R	0.706	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.706	1.000	0.294	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.147	0.000	-0.147	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.490	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.382	0.667	-0.132	-0.417
predicted_SO	1.059	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.059	1.000	-1.059	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.206	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.853	-
predicted_AVG	0.359	-
predicted_BB	0.471	-
predicted_H	1.310	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.416	-
predicted_R	0.706	-
predicted_RBI	0.290	-
predicted_SLG	0.490	-
predicted_SO	1.059	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.145	-0.061
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.930	0.077
predicted_AVG	0.359	0.000
predicted_BB	0.435	-0.036
predicted_H	1.385	0.075
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.134	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.416	0.000
predicted_R	0.813	0.107
predicted_RBI	0.305	0.015
predicted_SLG	0.490	0.000
predicted_SO	1.409	0.350

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.93), rates preserved: AVG=0.352 HR/AB=0.034

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.853

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	8.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	2.000	10.000	0.4000	0.4545	0.5500	0.4000	0.0500	0.1000	0.1000	0.5000
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	14.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	8.000	4.000	14.000	0.3500	0.4000	0.4750	0.3500	0.0250	0.0750	0.1000	0.3500
season	0.20	34	-	131.000	37.000	7.000	2.000	5.000	24.000	16.000	36.000	0.2824	0.3581	0.3817	0.2824	0.0153	0.0382	0.1221	0.2748

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1120
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.9710
predicted_AVG	0.3590
predicted_BB	0.4150
predicted_H	1.4250
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1360
predicted_OBP	0.4161
predicted_R	0.8700
predicted_RBI	0.3130
predicted_SLG	0.4901
predicted_SO	1.5980

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2060	0.1120	0.1449	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8530	3.9710	3.9297	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3590	0.3590	0.3590	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4710	0.4150	0.4346	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.3100	1.4250	1.3847	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1360	0.1339	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4160	0.4161	0.4161	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7060	0.8700	0.8126	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2900	0.3130	0.3049	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4900	0.4901	0.4901	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0590	1.5980	1.4094	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.282

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260506_CHW@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	805367
playerID	805367
playerName	Chase Meidroth
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	CHW
teamID	6

Tristan Peters (671976) · BATTER · CF · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 24

All-history rows before 20260508: 24

System season_avg: 0.2540

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2535

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.042	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.042	0.000	-0.042	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.958	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.958	2.000	0.042	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.242	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.254	0.000	-0.254	0.000
predicted_BB	0.250	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.250	0.000	0.750	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.610	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.750	0.000	-0.750	0.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.317	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.312	0.000	-0.062	0.250
predicted_R	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.245	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.268	0.000	-0.268	0.000
predicted_SO	0.750	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.750	1.000	1.250	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.042	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.958	-
predicted_AVG	0.242	-
predicted_BB	0.250	-
predicted_H	0.610	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.317	-
predicted_R	0.250	-
predicted_RBI	0.300	-
predicted_SLG	0.245	-
predicted_SO	0.750	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.020	-0.022
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.818	-0.140
predicted_AVG	0.242	0.000
predicted_BB	0.286	0.036
predicted_H	0.645	0.035
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.317	0.000
predicted_R	0.330	0.080
predicted_RBI	0.316	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.245	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.711	-0.039

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.96), rates preserved: AVG=0.218 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 24

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	13.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	0.2308	0.3333	0.2308	0.2308	0.1538	0.1538	0.3077
last_10	0.35	10	-	28.000	7.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	2.000	5.000	0.2500	0.3000	0.2500	0.2500	0.1071	0.0714	0.1786
season	0.20	24	-	71.000	18.000	1.000	4.000	6.000	6.000	18.000	0.2535	0.3117	0.2676	0.2535	0.0563	0.0845	0.2535

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0080
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.7420
predicted_AVG	0.2421
predicted_BB	0.3050
predicted_H	0.6640
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.3173
predicted_R	0.3730
predicted_RBI	0.3240
predicted_SLG	0.2449
predicted_SO	0.6900

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0420	0.0080	0.0199	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.9580	2.7420	2.8176	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2420	0.2421	0.2421	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2500	0.3050	0.2858	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6100	0.6640	0.6451	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3170	0.3173	0.3172	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2500	0.3730	0.3299	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3000	0.3240	0.3156	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2450	0.2449	0.2449	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7500	0.6900	0.7110	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	24
Season rows before report date	24
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	24
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.254

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260506_CHW@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	671976
playerID	671976
playerName	Tristan Peters
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	CHW
teamID	6

Munetaka Murakami (808959) · BATTER · 1B · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 35

All-history rows before 20260508: 35

System season_avg: 0.2340

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2344

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.029	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.657	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.657	4.000	0.343	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.204	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.234	0.000	0.016	0.250
predicted_BB	0.800	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.800	0.000	0.200	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.057	0.000	-0.057	0.000
predicted_H	0.720	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.857	0.000	0.143	1.000
predicted_HR	0.340	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.400	0.000	0.600	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.318	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.369	0.000	0.031	0.400
predicted_R	0.743	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.743	0.000	0.257	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.820	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	0.800	0.000	1.200	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.527	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SLG	0.570	0.000	0.430	1.000
predicted_SO	1.514	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.514	4.000	-0.514	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.029	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.657	-
predicted_AVG	0.204	-
predicted_BB	0.800	-
predicted_H	0.720	-
predicted_HR	0.340	-
predicted_OBP	0.318	-
predicted_R	0.743	-
predicted_RBI	0.820	-
predicted_SLG	0.527	-
predicted_SO	1.514	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.095	0.066
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.754	0.097
predicted_AVG	0.204	0.000
predicted_BB	0.697	-0.103
predicted_H	0.758	0.038
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.357	0.017
predicted_OBP	0.318	0.000
predicted_R	0.728	-0.015
predicted_RBI	0.866	0.046
predicted_SLG	0.527	0.000
predicted_SO	1.603	0.089

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.75), rates preserved: AVG=0.202 HR/AB=0.095

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	4.000	3.000	8.000	0.2105	0.3182	0.5789	0.2105	0.1053	0.2632	0.1579	0.4210
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	7.000	1.000	3.000	8.000	6.000	6.000	18.000	0.1795	0.2889	0.4359	0.1795	0.0769	0.2051	0.1538	0.4615
season	0.20	35	-	128.000	30.000	1.000	14.000	28.000	26.000	28.000	53.000	0.2344	0.3694	0.5703	0.2344	0.1094	0.2188	0.2188	0.4141

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1300
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.8060
predicted_AVG	0.2044
predicted_BB	0.6420
predicted_H	0.7780
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.3660
predicted_OBP	0.3182
predicted_R	0.7200
predicted_RBI	0.8910
predicted_SLG	0.5271
predicted_SO	1.6510

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0290	0.1300	0.0947	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6570	3.8060	3.7538	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2040	0.2044	0.2043	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.8000	0.6420	0.6973	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7200	0.7780	0.7577	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3400	0.3660	0.3569	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3180	0.3182	0.3181	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7430	0.7200	0.7280	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.8200	0.8910	0.8661	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5270	0.5271	0.5271	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.5140	1.6510	1.6031	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.234

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	4
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260506_CHW@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	808959
playerID	808959
playerName	Munetaka Murakami
pos	IF
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	CHW
teamID	6

Miguel Vargas (678246) · BATTER · 3B · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 34

All-history rows before 20260508: 34

System season_avg: 0.2130

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2126

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.118	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_3B	0.029	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_AB	3.735	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.735	4.000	1.265	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.204	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.213	0.000	-0.213	0.000
predicted_BB	0.735	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.735	0.000	-0.735	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.740	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.794	0.000	-0.794	0.000
predicted_HR	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.206	0.000	-0.206	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.316	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.348	0.000	-0.348	0.000
predicted_R	0.706	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.706	0.000	-0.706	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.510	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.529	0.000	-0.529	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.176	0.000	-0.176	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.377	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.425	0.000	-0.425	0.000
predicted_SO	0.735	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.735	1.000	1.265	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.118	-
predicted_3B	0.029	-
predicted_AB	3.735	-
predicted_AVG	0.204	-
predicted_BB	0.735	-
predicted_H	0.740	-
predicted_HR	0.190	-
predicted_OBP	0.316	-
predicted_R	0.706	-
predicted_RBI	0.510	-
predicted_SLG	0.377	-
predicted_SO	0.735	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.082	-0.036
predicted_3B	0.014	-0.015
predicted_AB	3.863	0.128
predicted_AVG	0.204	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.685	-0.050
predicted_H	0.780	0.040
predicted_HBP	0.012	-
predicted_HR	0.198	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.316	0.000
predicted_R	0.574	-0.132
predicted_RBI	0.536	0.026
predicted_SLG	0.377	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.819	0.084

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.86), rates preserved: AVG=0.202 HR/AB=0.051

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	0.1905	0.2609	0.3333	0.1905	0.0476	0.1429	0.0952	0.1905
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	8.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	5.000	9.000	10.000	0.2162	0.3696	0.4054	0.2162	0.0541	0.1351	0.2432	0.2703
season	0.20	34	-	127.000	27.000	4.000	1.000	7.000	18.000	24.000	25.000	25.000	0.2126	0.3484	0.4252	0.2126	0.0551	0.1417	0.1968	0.1968

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0620
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.9320
predicted_AVG	0.2039
predicted_BB	0.6580
predicted_H	0.8020
predicted_HBP	0.0120
predicted_HR	0.2020
predicted_OBP	0.3164
predicted_R	0.5030
predicted_RBI	0.5500
predicted_SLG	0.3769
predicted_SO	0.8640

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1180	0.0620	0.0816	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0290	0.0060	0.0140	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7350	3.9320	3.8630	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2040	0.2039	0.2039	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7350	0.6580	0.6849	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7400	0.8020	0.7803	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0120	0.0120	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1900	0.2020	0.1978	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3160	0.3164	0.3163	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7060	0.5030	0.5740	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5100	0.5500	0.5360	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3770	0.3769	0.3769	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7350	0.8640	0.8188	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.213

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260506_CHW@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	678246
playerID	678246
playerName	Miguel Vargas
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	CHW
teamID	6

Sam Antonacci (803011) · BATTER · LF · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 17

All-history rows before 20260508: 17

System season_avg: 0.2410

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2414

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.118	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_3B	0.118	1.000	1.000	Hitting_3B	0.118	0.000	0.882	1.000
predicted_AB	3.420	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.412	3.000	0.588	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.287	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.241	0.000	0.009	0.250
predicted_BB	0.353	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.353	0.000	0.647	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_H	0.980	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.824	0.000	0.176	1.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.410	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.366	0.250	0.034	0.150
predicted_R	0.529	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.529	0.000	0.471	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.330	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.471	1.000	-0.471	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.376	0.750	0.750	Hitting_SLG	0.397	0.000	0.353	0.750
predicted_SO	0.412	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.412	0.000	0.588	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.118	-
predicted_3B	0.118	-
predicted_AB	3.420	-
predicted_AVG	0.287	-
predicted_BB	0.353	-
predicted_H	0.980	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.410	-
predicted_R	0.529	-
predicted_RBI	0.330	-
predicted_SLG	0.376	-
predicted_SO	0.412	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.138	0.020
predicted_3B	0.080	-0.038
predicted_AB	3.386	-0.034
predicted_AVG	0.287	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.354	0.001
predicted_H	0.970	-0.010
predicted_HBP	0.355	-
predicted_HR	0.011	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.410	-0.000
predicted_R	0.566	0.037
predicted_RBI	0.327	-0.003
predicted_SLG	0.376	0.000
predicted_SO	0.545	0.133

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.42), rates preserved: AVG=0.284 HR/AB=0.003

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	1.000	1.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	4.000	0.2941	0.4286	0.3529	0.2941	0.0000	0.0588	0.1177	0.2353
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	10.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	6.000	3.000	5.000	0.3030	0.4103	0.3939	0.3030	0.0000	0.1212	0.0909	0.1515
season	0.20	17	-	58.000	14.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	8.000	9.000	6.000	7.000	0.2414	0.3662	0.3966	0.2414	0.0172	0.1379	0.1035	0.1207

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1480
predicted_3B	0.0590
predicted_AB	3.3670
predicted_AVG	0.2867
predicted_BB	0.3550
predicted_H	0.9650
predicted_HBP	0.3550
predicted_HR	0.0120
predicted_OBP	0.4097
predicted_R	0.5860
predicted_RBI	0.3250
predicted_SLG	0.3760
predicted_SO	0.6160

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1180	0.1480	0.1375	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.1180	0.0590	0.0796	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4200	3.3670	3.3856	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2870	0.2867	0.2868	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3530	0.3550	0.3543	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9800	0.9650	0.9702	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.3550	0.3550	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0120	0.0113	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4100	0.4097	0.4098	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5290	0.5860	0.5661	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3300	0.3250	0.3267	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3760	0.3760	0.3760	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4120	0.6160	0.5446	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	1
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.241

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260506_CHW@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	803011
playerID	803011
playerName	Sam Antonacci
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	CHW
teamID	6

Colson Montgomery (695657) · BATTER · SS · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 35

All-history rows before 20260508: 35

System season_avg: 0.2250

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2248

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	1.000	-0.200	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.686	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.686	4.000	0.314	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.196	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.225	0.250	0.275	0.250
predicted_BB	0.400	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.400	0.000	0.600	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_H	0.690	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.829	1.000	1.171	1.000
predicted_HR	0.120	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.257	0.000	0.743	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.324	0.600	0.600	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.250	0.267	0.350
predicted_R	0.457	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.457	1.000	0.543	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.350	3.000	3.000	Hitting_RBI	0.657	0.000	2.343	3.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.374	1.250	1.250	Hitting_SLG	0.488	0.500	0.762	0.750
predicted_SO	1.229	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.229	2.000	-1.229	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.686	-
predicted_AVG	0.196	-
predicted_BB	0.400	-
predicted_H	0.690	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.324	-
predicted_R	0.457	-
predicted_RBI	0.350	-
predicted_SLG	0.374	-
predicted_SO	1.229	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.259	0.059
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.664	-0.022
predicted_AVG	0.196	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.541	0.141
predicted_H	0.706	0.016
predicted_HBP	0.074	-
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.324	-0.000
predicted_R	0.368	-0.089
predicted_RBI	0.356	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.374	0.000
predicted_SO	1.169	-0.060

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.69), rates preserved: AVG=0.192 HR/AB=0.033

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	3.000	3.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	3.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	6.000	0.1667	0.3182	0.2778	0.1667	0.0000	0.0556	0.2222	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	8.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	5.000	10.000	0.2162	0.3256	0.4324	0.2162	0.0541	0.1081	0.1351	0.2703
season	0.20	35	-	129.000	29.000	7.000	9.000	23.000	16.000	14.000	43.000	0.2248	0.3333	0.4884	0.2248	0.0698	0.1783	0.1085	0.3333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2910
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.6520
predicted_AVG	0.1956
predicted_BB	0.6170
predicted_H	0.7150
predicted_HBP	0.0740
predicted_HR	0.1200
predicted_OBP	0.3238
predicted_R	0.3200
predicted_RBI	0.3600
predicted_SLG	0.3740
predicted_SO	1.1370

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.2910	0.2591	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6860	3.6520	3.6639	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1960	0.1956	0.1957	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4000	0.6170	0.5411	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6900	0.7150	0.7062	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0740	0.0740	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1200	0.1200	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3240	0.3238	0.3239	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4570	0.3200	0.3679	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3500	0.3600	0.3565	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3740	0.3740	0.3740	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2290	1.1370	1.1692	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	3
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.225

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260506_CHW@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	695657
playerID	695657
playerName	Colson Montgomery
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	CHW
teamID	6

Sean Burke (680732) · PITCHER · Starter · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 7

All-history rows before 20260508: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.714	0.000	-1.714	0.000
predicted_IP	3.200	3.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.600	6.000	-2.400	-2.800
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	-	Pitching_SO	4.571	8.000	-0.571	-4.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 3.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	29.200	8.000	21.000	7.000	20.000	3.000	2.4270	0.9438	0.2697	0.7079	0.2360	0.6742	0.1011
last_10	0.35	7	39.200	12.000	32.000	8.000	32.000	3.000	2.7227	1.0084	0.3025	0.8067	0.2017	0.8067	0.0756
season	0.20	7	39.200	12.000	32.000	8.000	32.000	3.000	2.7227	1.0084	0.3025	0.8067	0.2017	0.8067	0.0756

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.2630
predicted_ER	1.6740
predicted_ERA	2.5896
predicted_H	4.4340
predicted_HR	0.5070
predicted_IP	5.2000
predicted_SO	4.3450
predicted_WHIP	0.9793

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	4.0000	1.2630	2.2209	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	1.6740	1.0881	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.5896	2.5896	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	4.4340	3.9321	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.5070	0.3296	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	3.2000	5.2000	5.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	4.0000	4.3450	4.2242	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9793	0.9793	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	3.2
H	3
R	0
ER	0
BB	4
SO	4
HR	0
BF	22
Pitches	106

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	23
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.72
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	6
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	88
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	8
Pitching_Strikes	66
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260502_CHW@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	680732
playerID	680732
playerName	Sean Burke
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	CHW
teamID	6

Seranthony Domínguez (622554) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 2

All-history rows before 20260508: 2

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.000	2.000	-1.000	-2.000
predicted_IP	2.100	2.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.550	0.100	1.550	2.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 2.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	2	1.100	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	13.5000	3.0000	1.5000	2.2500	0.7500	0.7500
last_10	0.35	2	1.100	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	13.5000	3.0000	1.5000	2.2500	0.7500	0.7500
season	0.20	2	1.100	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	13.5000	3.0000	1.5000	2.2500	0.7500	0.7500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5000
predicted_ER	1.0000
predicted_ERA	13.5000
predicted_H	1.5000
predicted_HR	0.5000
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.0000
predicted_WHIP	3.0000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5000	0.3250	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	1.0000	0.6500	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	13.5000	13.5000	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	1.5000	2.0250	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.5000	0.6750	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	2.1000	0.2000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.0000	0.3500	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	3.0000	3.0000	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.1
H	3
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	1
BF	6
Pitches	21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	13.50
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	3
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	3
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	19
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L, BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260329_CHW@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	622554
playerID	622554
playerName	Seranthony Domínguez
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHW
teamID	6

Grant Taylor (691799) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 6

All-history rows before 20260508: 6

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.017	1.100	-0.017	-0.100
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.333	1.000	0.667	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	0.000	4.000	1.000	7.000	0.0000	0.9375	0.0000	0.7500	0.1875	1.3125
last_10	0.35	6	6.100	1.000	6.000	2.000	8.000	1.4211	1.2632	0.1579	0.9474	0.3158	1.2632
season	0.20	6	6.100	1.000	6.000	2.000	8.000	1.4211	1.2632	0.1579	0.9474	0.3158	1.2632

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2580
predicted_ER	0.0870
predicted_ERA	0.7816
predicted_H	0.8590
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.2850
predicted_WHIP	1.1166

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.2580	0.5177	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.0870	0.0565	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.7816	0.7816	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8590	0.5584	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.2850	1.5353	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1166	1.1166	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	2
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.42
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	22
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	17
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260409_CHW@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	691799
playerID	691799
playerName	Grant Taylor
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHW
teamID	6

Jordan Hicks (663855) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 2

All-history rows before 20260508: 2

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.500	0.000	0.500	2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.150	0.100	0.850	0.900
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	2	1.000	3.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	27.0000	6.0000	3.0000	2.0000	4.0000	1.0000
last_10	0.35	2	1.000	3.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	27.0000	6.0000	3.0000	2.0000	4.0000	1.0000
season	0.20	2	1.000	3.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	27.0000	6.0000	3.0000	2.0000	4.0000	1.0000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.6670
predicted_ER	2.0000
predicted_ERA	27.0000
predicted_H	1.3330
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.6670
predicted_WHIP	6.0000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	2.6670	2.0835	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.0000	2.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	27.0000	27.0000	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	1.3330	1.9164	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.6670	0.4336	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	6.0000	6.0000	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	3
R	2
ER	2
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	7
Pitches	31

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	1
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	27.00
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	3
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	3
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260329_CHW@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	663855
playerID	663855
playerName	Jordan Hicks
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHW
teamID	6

Sean Newcomb (656794) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 1

All-history rows before 20260508: 1

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	2.000	2.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	2.100	2.100	-1.100	-1.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	1	2.100	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	7.7143	1.7143	0.8571	1.2857	0.4286	0.4286
last_10	0.35	1	2.100	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	7.7143	1.7143	0.8571	1.2857	0.4286	0.4286
season	0.20	1	2.100	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	7.7143	1.7143	0.8571	1.2857	0.4286	0.4286

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.0000
predicted_ER	2.0000
predicted_ERA	7.7143
predicted_H	3.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	2.1000
predicted_SO	1.0000
predicted_WHIP	1.7143

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	1.0000	0.6500	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	2.0000	1.6500	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	7.7143	7.7143	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	3.0000	1.9500	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	2.1000	2.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.7143	1.7143	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	10
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	7.71
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	5
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.1
Pitching_Pitches	33
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	26
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260326_CHW@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	656794
playerID	656794
playerName	Sean Newcomb
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHW
teamID	6

20260508_STL@SD

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 3, "confidence": 0.6781035679689627, "home_win_probability": 0.32189643203103735, "away_win_probability": 0.6781035679689627, "predicted_score_text": "STL 6 - 3 SD", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to final winner probability with starter-quality caps.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3, "predicted_score_text": "STL 5 - 3 SD", "confidence": 0.6781035679689627, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score", "final_prediction_synced": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "STL 5 - 3 SD", "winner": "STL"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "STL 6 - 3 SD", "winner": "STL"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 1, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 1, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"}}

Away Team: STL

César Prieto (693409) · BATTER · 3B · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 0

All-history rows before 20260508: 0

System season_avg: 0.0000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): -

Diff (system - data): -

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	-	-	-	-
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	-	-	-	-
predicted_AB	0.000	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	-	-	-	-
predicted_AVG	0.000	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	-	-	-	-
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	-	-	-	-
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	-	-	-	-
predicted_H	0.000	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	-	-	-	-
predicted_HR	0.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	-	-	-	-
predicted_OBP	0.000	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	-	-	-	-
predicted_R	0.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	-	-	-	-
predicted_RBI	0.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	-	-	-	-
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	-	-	-	-
predicted_SLG	0.000	1.250	1.250	Hitting_SLG	-	-	-	-
predicted_SO	0.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	-	-	-	-

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw XGBoost model output

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	0.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.000	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.000	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.000	-
predicted_SLG	0.000	-
predicted_SO	0.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.472	2.472
predicted_AVG	0.000	0.000
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.000	0.000
predicted_R	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.000	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.47), rates preserved: AVG=0.000 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 0

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Total PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
last_10	0.35	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
season	0.20	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.8030
predicted_BB	0.0000
predicted_H	0.0000
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_R	0.0000
predicted_RBI	0.0000
predicted_SO	0.0000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	0.0000	3.8030	2.4720	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.0000	-	0.0000	model_only
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.0000	-	0.0000	model_only
predicted_R	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.0000	-	0.0000	model_only
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	0
Season rows before report date	0
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	0
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.0

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

No historical data found for this player before report date.

JJ Wetherholt (802139) · BATTER · 2B · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 36

All-history rows before 20260508: 36

System season_avg: 0.2390

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2391

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.139	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.139	0.000	0.861	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.833	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.833	2.000	1.167	3.000
predicted_AVG	0.204	0.200	0.200	Hitting_AVG	0.239	0.000	-0.039	0.200
predicted_BB	0.556	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.556	2.000	-0.556	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.780	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.917	0.000	0.083	1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.194	0.000	-0.194	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.317	0.200	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.359	0.500	-0.159	-0.300
predicted_R	0.778	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.778	0.000	-0.778	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.460	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.322	0.400	0.400	Hitting_SLG	0.428	0.000	-0.028	0.400
predicted_SO	0.778	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.778	0.000	1.222	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.139	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.833	-
predicted_AVG	0.204	-
predicted_BB	0.556	-
predicted_H	0.780	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.317	-
predicted_R	0.778	-
predicted_RBI	0.460	-
predicted_SLG	0.322	-
predicted_SO	0.778	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.132	-0.007
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.780	-0.053
predicted_AVG	0.204	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.557	0.001
predicted_H	0.770	-0.010
predicted_HBP	0.072	-
predicted_HR	0.107	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.317	0.000
predicted_R	0.586	-0.192
predicted_RBI	0.456	-0.004
predicted_SLG	0.322	0.000
predicted_SO	0.625	-0.153

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.83), rates preserved: AVG=0.201 HR/AB=0.028

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.833

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	0.1667	0.2857	0.1667	0.1667	0.0000	0.1111	0.1667	0.1111
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	9.000	3.000	2.000	5.000	7.000	5.000	6.000	0.2308	0.3333	0.4615	0.2308	0.0513	0.1282	0.1282	0.1538
season	0.20	36	-	138.000	33.000	5.000	7.000	18.000	28.000	20.000	28.000	0.2391	0.3593	0.4275	0.2391	0.0507	0.1304	0.1449	0.2029

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1280
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7520
predicted_AVG	0.2036
predicted_BB	0.5580
predicted_H	0.7640
predicted_HBP	0.0720
predicted_HR	0.1050
predicted_OBP	0.3171
predicted_R	0.4820
predicted_RBI	0.4540
predicted_SLG	0.3220
predicted_SO	0.5420

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1390	0.1280	0.1319	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8330	3.7520	3.7804	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2040	0.2036	0.2037	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5560	0.5580	0.5573	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7800	0.7640	0.7696	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0720	0.0720	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1050	0.1068	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3170	0.3171	0.3171	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7780	0.4820	0.5856	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4600	0.4540	0.4561	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3220	0.3220	0.3220	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7780	0.5420	0.6246	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.239

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260507_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	802139
playerID	802139
playerName	JJ Wetherholt
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	STL
teamID	26

Nolan Gorman (669357) · BATTER · DH · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 32

All-history rows before 20260508: 32

System season_avg: 0.2220

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2222

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.656	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.656	3.000	0.344	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.222	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.222	0.000	0.028	0.250
predicted_BB	0.406	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.406	1.000	0.594	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.770	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.812	0.000	0.188	1.000
predicted_HR	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.290	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.293	0.250	0.107	0.150
predicted_R	0.406	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.406	0.000	0.594	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.490	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.625	0.000	-0.625	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.452	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.359	0.000	-0.109	0.250
predicted_SO	1.219	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.219	3.000	-1.219	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.656	-
predicted_AVG	0.222	-
predicted_BB	0.406	-
predicted_H	0.770	-
predicted_HR	0.180	-
predicted_OBP	0.290	-
predicted_R	0.406	-
predicted_RBI	0.490	-
predicted_SLG	0.452	-
predicted_SO	1.219	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.223	0.098
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.627	-0.029
predicted_AVG	0.222	0.000
predicted_BB	0.380	-0.026
predicted_H	0.791	0.021
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.183	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.290	-0.000
predicted_R	0.403	-0.003
predicted_RBI	0.506	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.452	0.000
predicted_SO	1.290	0.071

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.66), rates preserved: AVG=0.216 HR/AB=0.050

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	0.2222	0.3000	0.5000	0.2222	0.0556	0.1111	0.1111	0.3889
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	8.000	2.000	2.000	6.000	4.000	3.000	13.000	0.2222	0.2750	0.4444	0.2222	0.0556	0.1667	0.0833	0.3611
season	0.20	32	-	117.000	26.000	4.000	4.000	20.000	13.000	13.000	39.000	0.2222	0.2932	0.3590	0.2222	0.0342	0.1709	0.1111	0.3333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2750
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.6110
predicted_AVG	0.2222
predicted_BB	0.3660
predicted_H	0.8020
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1850
predicted_OBP	0.2899
predicted_R	0.4010
predicted_RBI	0.5150
predicted_SLG	0.4523
predicted_SO	1.3290

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1250	0.2750	0.2225	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6560	3.6110	3.6268	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2220	0.2222	0.2221	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4060	0.3660	0.3800	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7700	0.8020	0.7908	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1800	0.1850	0.1832	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2900	0.2899	0.2899	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4060	0.4010	0.4028	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4900	0.5150	0.5063	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4520	0.4523	0.4522	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2190	1.3290	1.2905	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.222

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260507_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	669357
playerID	669357
playerName	Nolan Gorman
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	STL
teamID	26

Victor Scott II (687363) · BATTER · CF · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 32

All-history rows before 20260508: 32

System season_avg: 0.1940

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1935

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.062	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.906	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.906	3.000	0.094	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.224	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.194	0.333	0.140	0.000
predicted_BB	0.219	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.219	0.000	0.781	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.094	1.000	-0.094	-1.000
predicted_H	0.540	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.562	1.000	0.438	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.031	0.000	-0.031	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.282	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.255	0.333	0.245	0.167
predicted_R	0.344	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.344	0.000	0.656	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.156	0.000	-0.156	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.188	0.000	-0.188	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.309	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.247	0.333	0.086	0.000
predicted_SO	0.906	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.906	1.000	1.094	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.062	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.906	-
predicted_AVG	0.224	-
predicted_BB	0.219	-
predicted_H	0.540	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.282	-
predicted_R	0.344	-
predicted_RBI	0.050	-
predicted_SLG	0.309	-
predicted_SO	0.906	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	0.049
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	0.094
predicted_AVG	0.224	0.000
predicted_BB	0.209	-0.010
predicted_H	0.634	0.094
predicted_HBP	0.040	-
predicted_HR	0.036	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.282	-0.000
predicted_R	0.395	0.051
predicted_RBI	0.060	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.309	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.896	-0.010

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.211 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.2667	0.3125	0.3333	0.2667	0.0000	0.0000	0.0667	0.2667
last_10	0.35	10	-	32.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	10.000	0.1875	0.2571	0.3125	0.1875	0.0312	0.0312	0.0625	0.3125
season	0.20	32	-	93.000	18.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	11.000	7.000	29.000	0.1935	0.2549	0.2473	0.1935	0.0107	0.0538	0.0753	0.3118

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1380
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.0510
predicted_AVG	0.2243
predicted_BB	0.2040
predicted_H	0.6850
predicted_HBP	0.0400
predicted_HR	0.0400
predicted_OBP	0.2816
predicted_R	0.4220
predicted_RBI	0.0660
predicted_SLG	0.3088
predicted_SO	0.8900

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0620	0.1380	0.1114	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.9060	3.0510	3.0003	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2240	0.2243	0.2242	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2190	0.2040	0.2092	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5400	0.6850	0.6342	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0400	0.0400	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0400	0.0365	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2820	0.2816	0.2817	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3440	0.4220	0.3947	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0500	0.0660	0.0604	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3090	0.3088	0.3089	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9060	0.8900	0.8956	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.194

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	1
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260507_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	687363
playerID	687363
playerName	Victor Scott II
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	STL
teamID	26

Masyn Winn (691026) · BATTER · SS · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 32

All-history rows before 20260508: 32

System season_avg: 0.2640

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2645

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.194	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.188	0.000	-0.188	0.000
predicted_3B	0.065	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.062	1.000	-0.062	-1.000
predicted_AB	3.903	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.781	4.000	0.219	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.264	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.264	0.250	-0.264	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.355	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.900	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.031	0.000	-0.031	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.318	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.343	0.250	-0.343	-0.250
predicted_R	0.484	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.469	0.000	-0.469	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.340	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.469	1.000	-0.469	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.384	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.372	0.750	-0.372	-0.750
predicted_SO	0.839	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.812	0.000	-0.812	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.194	-
predicted_3B	0.065	-
predicted_AB	3.903	-
predicted_AVG	0.264	-
predicted_BB	0.355	-
predicted_H	0.900	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.318	-
predicted_R	0.484	-
predicted_RBI	0.340	-
predicted_SLG	0.384	-
predicted_SO	0.839	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.174	-0.020
predicted_3B	0.113	0.048
predicted_AB	3.850	-0.053
predicted_AVG	0.264	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.297	-0.058
predicted_H	0.969	0.069
predicted_HBP	0.048	-
predicted_HR	0.007	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.318	0.000
predicted_R	0.336	-0.148
predicted_RBI	0.367	0.027
predicted_SLG	0.384	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.574	-0.265

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.90), rates preserved: AVG=0.248 HR/AB=0.002

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.903

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	0.2632	0.3000	0.4211	0.2632	0.0000	0.1053	0.0526	0.0526
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	10.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	0.2632	0.3333	0.3421	0.2632	0.0000	0.0790	0.0790	0.1316
season	0.20	31	-	121.000	32.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	15.000	15.000	11.000	26.000	0.2645	0.3333	0.3719	0.2645	0.0083	0.1240	0.0909	0.2149

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1640
predicted_3B	0.1380
predicted_AB	3.8210
predicted_AVG	0.2635
predicted_BB	0.2660
predicted_H	1.0060
predicted_HBP	0.0480
predicted_HR	0.0060
predicted_OBP	0.3183
predicted_R	0.2560
predicted_RBI	0.3810
predicted_SLG	0.3836
predicted_SO	0.4310

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1940	0.1640	0.1745	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0650	0.1380	0.1125	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9030	3.8210	3.8497	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2640	0.2635	0.2637	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3550	0.2660	0.2972	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9000	1.0060	0.9689	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0480	0.0480	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0060	0.0074	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3180	0.3183	0.3182	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4840	0.2560	0.3358	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3400	0.3810	0.3667	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3840	0.3836	0.3837	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8390	0.4310	0.5738	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.264

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	1
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260507_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	691026
playerID	691026
playerName	Masyn Winn
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	STL
teamID	26

Iván Herrera (671056) · BATTER · C · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 37

All-history rows before 20260508: 37

System season_avg: 0.2420

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2424

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.270	0.000	-0.270	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.568	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.568	3.000	0.432	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.236	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.242	0.000	0.258	0.500
predicted_BB	0.757	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.757	1.000	0.243	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.810	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.865	0.000	1.135	2.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.108	0.000	-0.108	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.370	0.600	0.600	Hitting_OBP	0.402	0.250	0.198	0.350
predicted_R	0.568	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.568	0.000	0.432	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.480	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	0.459	0.000	1.541	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.393	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.409	0.000	0.091	0.500
predicted_SO	0.838	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.838	2.000	-0.838	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.270	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.568	-
predicted_AVG	0.236	-
predicted_BB	0.757	-
predicted_H	0.810	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.370	-
predicted_R	0.568	-
predicted_RBI	0.480	-
predicted_SLG	0.393	-
predicted_SO	0.838	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.419	0.149
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.585	0.017
predicted_AVG	0.236	0.000
predicted_BB	0.743	-0.014
predicted_H	0.835	0.025
predicted_HBP	0.044	-
predicted_HR	0.021	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.370	0.000
predicted_R	0.559	-0.009
predicted_RBI	0.494	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.393	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.107	0.269

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.58), rates preserved: AVG=0.233 HR/AB=0.006

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	4.000	3.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	7.000	0.2222	0.3333	0.3889	0.2222	0.0000	0.1667	0.1667	0.3889
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	9.000	5.000	0.000	4.000	10.000	9.000	13.000	0.2500	0.4000	0.3889	0.2500	0.0000	0.1111	0.2500	0.3611
season	0.20	37	-	132.000	32.000	10.000	4.000	17.000	21.000	28.000	31.000	0.2424	0.4024	0.4091	0.2424	0.0303	0.1288	0.2121	0.2349

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.4990
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.5940
predicted_AVG	0.2360
predicted_BB	0.7360
predicted_H	0.8480
predicted_HBP	0.0440
predicted_HR	0.0220
predicted_OBP	0.3705
predicted_R	0.5540
predicted_RBI	0.5020
predicted_SLG	0.3929
predicted_SO	1.2520

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2700	0.4990	0.4189	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5680	3.5940	3.5849	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2360	0.2360	0.2360	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7570	0.7360	0.7433	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8100	0.8480	0.8347	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0440	0.0440	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0220	0.0213	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3700	0.3705	0.3703	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5680	0.5540	0.5589	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4800	0.5020	0.4943	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3930	0.3929	0.3929	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8380	1.2520	1.1071	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.242

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260507_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	671056
playerID	671056
playerName	Iván Herrera
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	STL
teamID	26

Alec Burleson (676475) · BATTER · 1B · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 35

All-history rows before 20260508: 35

System season_avg: 0.2710

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2714

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.257	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.257	0.000	-0.257	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	3.000	0.000	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.266	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.271	0.333	-0.021	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.486	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.486	1.000	0.514	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.030	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.086	1.000	-0.086	0.000
predicted_HR	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.171	1.000	-0.171	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.341	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.348	0.500	0.052	-0.100
predicted_R	0.543	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.543	1.000	0.457	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.990	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.857	1.000	-0.857	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.507	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.464	1.333	-0.214	-1.083
predicted_SO	0.686	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.686	0.000	0.314	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.257	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.266	-
predicted_BB	0.486	-
predicted_H	1.030	-
predicted_HR	0.230	-
predicted_OBP	0.341	-
predicted_R	0.543	-
predicted_RBI	0.990	-
predicted_SLG	0.507	-
predicted_SO	0.686	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-0.007
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.919	-0.081
predicted_AVG	0.266	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.464	-0.022
predicted_H	1.030	0.000
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.229	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.341	0.000
predicted_R	0.581	0.038
predicted_RBI	0.987	-0.003
predicted_SLG	0.507	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.828	0.142

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.258 HR/AB=0.057

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, BvP AVG=0.333)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	0.2105	0.2857	0.4211	0.2105	0.0526	0.2105	0.1053	0.2632
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	13.000	3.000	3.000	13.000	9.000	5.000	9.000	0.3333	0.4091	0.6410	0.3333	0.0769	0.3333	0.1282	0.2308
season	0.20	35	-	140.000	38.000	9.000	6.000	30.000	19.000	17.000	24.000	0.2714	0.3481	0.4643	0.2714	0.0429	0.2143	0.1214	0.1714

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2460
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.8750
predicted_AVG	0.2657
predicted_BB	0.4520
predicted_H	1.0300
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.2290
predicted_OBP	0.3414
predicted_R	0.6020
predicted_RBI	0.9850
predicted_SLG	0.5067
predicted_SO	0.9050

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2570	0.2460	0.2499	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0000	3.8750	3.9188	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2660	0.2657	0.2658	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4860	0.4520	0.4639	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0300	1.0300	1.0300	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2300	0.2290	0.2293	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3410	0.3414	0.3413	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5430	0.6020	0.5814	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.9900	0.9850	0.9868	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5070	0.5067	0.5068	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6860	0.9050	0.8284	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.271

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260507_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	676475
playerID	676475
playerName	Alec Burleson
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	STL
teamID	26

Nathan Church (701675) · BATTER · LF · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 27

All-history rows before 20260508: 27

System season_avg: 0.2380

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2376

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_2B	0.148	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.148	0.000	-0.148
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.741	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.741	4.000	0.259
predicted_AVG	0.235	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.238	0.000	-0.238
predicted_BB	0.148	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.148	0.000	-0.148
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.037	0.000	-0.037
predicted_H	0.790	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.889	0.000	-0.889
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.148	0.000	-0.148
predicted_OBP	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.264	0.000	-0.264
predicted_R	0.481	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.481	0.000	-0.481
predicted_RBI	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.481	0.000	-0.481
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.111	0.000	-0.111
predicted_SLG	0.362	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.396	0.000	-0.396
predicted_SO	0.852	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.852	1.000	0.148

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.148	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.741	-
predicted_AVG	0.235	-
predicted_BB	0.148	-
predicted_H	0.790	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.240	-
predicted_R	0.481	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.362	-
predicted_SO	0.852	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.255	0.107
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.921	0.180
predicted_AVG	0.235	0.000
predicted_BB	0.073	-0.075
predicted_H	0.890	0.100
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.060	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.240	0.000
predicted_R	0.359	-0.122
predicted_RBI	0.308	0.038
predicted_SLG	0.362	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.767	-0.085

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.92), rates preserved: AVG=0.227 HR/AB=0.015

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	0.2500	0.2500	0.3500	0.2500	0.0000	0.0500	0.0000	0.1500
last_10	0.35	10	-	42.000	9.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	0.000	8.000	0.2143	0.2143	0.3571	0.2143	0.0238	0.0952	0.0000	0.1905
season	0.20	27	-	101.000	24.000	4.000	4.000	13.000	13.000	4.000	23.000	0.2376	0.2642	0.3960	0.2376	0.0396	0.1287	0.0396	0.2277

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3130
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.0180
predicted_AVG	0.2350
predicted_BB	0.0320
predicted_H	0.9440
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0650
predicted_OBP	0.2403
predicted_R	0.2940
predicted_RBI	0.3280
predicted_SLG	0.3617
predicted_SO	0.7220

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1480	0.3130	0.2553	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7410	4.0180	3.9211	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2350	0.2350	0.2350	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1480	0.0320	0.0726	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7900	0.9440	0.8901	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0650	0.0597	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2400	0.2403	0.2402	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4810	0.2940	0.3594	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.3280	0.3077	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3620	0.3617	0.3618	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8520	0.7220	0.7675	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.238

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260507_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	701675
playerID	701675
playerName	Nathan Church
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	STL
teamID	26

Jordan Walker (691023) · BATTER · RF · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 35

All-history rows before 20260508: 35

System season_avg: 0.3130

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3134

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.229	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.229	2.000	0.771	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.829	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.829	4.000	1.171	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.336	0.400	0.400	Hitting_AVG	0.313	0.500	0.087	-0.100
predicted_BB	0.457	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.457	0.000	-0.457	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_H	1.230	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	1.200	2.000	0.800	0.000
predicted_HR	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.435	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.388	0.500	0.012	-0.100
predicted_R	0.829	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.829	1.000	0.171	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.740	3.000	3.000	Hitting_RBI	0.771	0.000	2.229	3.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.628	0.600	0.600	Hitting_SLG	0.597	1.000	0.003	-0.400
predicted_SO	1.171	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.171	0.000	0.829	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.229	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.829	-
predicted_AVG	0.336	-
predicted_BB	0.457	-
predicted_H	1.230	-
predicted_HR	0.230	-
predicted_OBP	0.435	-
predicted_R	0.829	-
predicted_RBI	0.740	-
predicted_SLG	0.628	-
predicted_SO	1.171	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.321	0.092
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.616	-0.213
predicted_AVG	0.336	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.578	0.121
predicted_H	1.194	-0.036
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.222	-0.008
predicted_OBP	0.435	-0.000
predicted_R	0.817	-0.012
predicted_RBI	0.715	-0.025
predicted_SLG	0.628	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.849	-0.322

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.83), rates preserved: AVG=0.312 HR/AB=0.058

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	3.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.829

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	5.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	2.000	0.3125	0.4500	0.6250	0.3125	0.0625	0.1250	0.2500	0.1250
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	14.000	4.000	2.000	11.000	8.000	5.000	8.000	0.3784	0.4419	0.6486	0.3784	0.0541	0.2973	0.1351	0.2162
season	0.20	35	-	134.000	42.000	8.000	10.000	27.000	29.000	16.000	41.000	0.3134	0.3882	0.5970	0.3134	0.0746	0.2015	0.1194	0.3060

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3710
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.5010
predicted_AVG	0.3357
predicted_BB	0.6430
predicted_H	1.1750
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.2170
predicted_OBP	0.4348
predicted_R	0.8100
predicted_RBI	0.7020
predicted_SLG	0.6277
predicted_SO	0.6760

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2290	0.3710	0.3213	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8290	3.5010	3.6158	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3360	0.3357	0.3358	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4570	0.6430	0.5779	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2300	1.1750	1.1943	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2300	0.2170	0.2216	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4350	0.4348	0.4349	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8290	0.8100	0.8167	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7400	0.7020	0.7153	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6280	0.6277	0.6278	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1710	0.6760	0.8493	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	3
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.313

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	2
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260507_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	691023
playerID	691023
playerName	Jordan Walker
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	STL
teamID	26

Michael McGreevy (700241) · PITCHER · Starter · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 7

All-history rows before 20260508: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.571	0.000	-0.571	1.000
predicted_IP	2.200	2.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.486	6.000	-3.286	-3.800
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	-	Pitching_SO	3.429	3.000	0.571	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 2.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	28.200	8.000	21.000	6.000	15.000	4.000	2.5116	0.9419	0.2791	0.7326	0.2093	0.5233	0.1395
last_10	0.35	7	39.100	11.000	28.000	8.000	24.000	5.000	2.5169	0.9153	0.2797	0.7119	0.2034	0.6102	0.1271
season	0.20	7	39.100	11.000	28.000	8.000	24.000	5.000	2.5169	0.9153	0.2797	0.7119	0.2034	0.6102	0.1271

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.1680
predicted_ER	1.5830
predicted_ERA	2.5145
predicted_H	4.0870
predicted_HR	0.7520
predicted_IP	5.2000
predicted_SO	3.2360
predicted_WHIP	0.9273

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	1.1680	1.4592	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	1.5830	1.3790	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.5145	2.5145	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	4.0870	4.0565	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.7520	0.8388	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	2.2000	5.2000	4.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	4.0000	3.2360	3.5034	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9273	0.9273	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.2
H	4
R	1
ER	1
BB	2
SO	4
HR	1
BF	19
Pitches	90

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	20
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.52
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	8
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	88
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	52
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260502_LAD@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	700241
playerID	700241
playerName	Michael McGreevy
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	STL
teamID	26

Riley O'Brien (676617) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 18

All-history rows before 20260508: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_IP	2.100	2.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.922	1.000	1.178	1.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.111	1.000	-0.111	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 2.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	4.000	9.000	1.000	5.000	7.7143	2.1429	0.8571	1.9286	0.2143	1.0714
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	4.000	11.000	1.000	12.000	3.7241	1.2414	0.4138	1.1379	0.1035	1.2414
season	0.20	18	18.000	4.000	15.000	1.000	20.000	2.0000	0.8889	0.2222	0.8333	0.0556	1.1111

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1440
predicted_ER	0.5750
predicted_ERA	5.1749
predicted_H	1.4330
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1390
predicted_WHIP	1.5766

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1440	0.0936	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5750	0.3737	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.1749	5.1749	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.4330	0.9315	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	2.1000	1.0000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1390	1.0903	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5766	1.5766	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.00
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	10
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	676617
playerID	676617
playerName	Riley O'Brien
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	STL
teamID	26

George Soriano (666277) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 17

All-history rows before 20260508: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.353	0.000	-0.353	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.824	1.000	0.276	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.824	1.000	0.176	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	4.000	3.000	5.000	0.000	0.0000	1.4000	0.0000	0.8000	0.6000	1.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.100	4.000	7.000	5.000	9.000	1.000	4.3200	1.4400	0.4800	0.8400	0.6000	1.0800	0.1200
season	0.20	17	16.100	6.000	10.000	9.000	14.000	1.000	3.3061	1.1633	0.3674	0.6122	0.5510	0.8571	0.0612

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5210
predicted_ER	0.2130
predicted_ERA	2.1732
predicted_H	0.6860
predicted_HR	0.0480
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8830
predicted_WHIP	1.3667

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5210	0.3387	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2130	0.1384	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.1732	2.1732	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6860	0.4459	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0480	0.0312	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.0000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8830	0.9240	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3667	1.3667	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.31
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	666277
playerID	666277
playerName	George Soriano
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	STL
teamID	26

Gordon Graceffo (700669) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 15

All-history rows before 20260508: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.267	2.000	-0.267	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.073	0.100	-0.073	0.900
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	3.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	5.4000	1.4000	0.6000	1.2000	0.2000	0.4000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	11.200	3.000	9.000	2.000	6.000	1.000	2.3143	0.9429	0.2571	0.7714	0.1714	0.5143	0.0857
season	0.20	15	18.200	4.000	11.000	7.000	10.000	1.000	1.9286	0.9643	0.2143	0.5893	0.3750	0.5357	0.0536

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2660
predicted_ER	0.4770
predicted_ERA	3.6257
predicted_H	1.0980
predicted_HR	0.1550
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	0.5530
predicted_WHIP	1.1529

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	0.2660	1.2229	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4770	0.3100	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.6257	3.6257	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.0980	0.7137	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1550	0.1008	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.1000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.5530	0.3595	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1529	1.1529	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	3
SO	0
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	29

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	1.93
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_MIL@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	700669
playerID	700669
playerName	Gordon Graceffo
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	STL
teamID	26

JoJo Romero (668941) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 18

All-history rows before 20260508: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.389	0.000	-0.389	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.806	1.000	0.194	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.778	1.000	1.222	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	1.000	3.000	3.000	6.000	1.000	2.0769	1.3846	0.2308	0.6923	0.6923	1.3846	0.2308
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	7.000	9.000	4.000	9.000	3.000	7.0000	1.4444	0.7778	1.0000	0.4444	1.0000	0.3333
season	0.20	18	18.000	7.000	15.000	7.000	14.000	3.000	3.5000	1.2222	0.3889	0.8333	0.3889	0.7778	0.1667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5450
predicted_ER	0.4540
predicted_ERA	4.0846
predicted_H	0.8280
predicted_HR	0.2540
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1290
predicted_WHIP	1.3731

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5450	0.3543	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4540	0.2951	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.0846	4.0846	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8280	0.5382	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2540	0.1651	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.1290	1.4339	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3731	1.3731	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.50
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	7
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	668941
playerID	668941
playerName	JoJo Romero
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	STL
teamID	26

Ryne Stanek (592773) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 17

All-history rows before 20260508: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.706	0.000	1.294	2.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.718	1.000	-0.518	-0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.176	1.000	-0.176	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	2.000	3.000	3.000	6.000	0.000	4.1538	1.3846	0.4615	0.6923	0.6923	1.3846	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.100	8.000	11.000	8.000	11.000	0.000	8.6400	2.2800	0.9600	1.3200	0.9600	1.3200	0.0000
season	0.20	17	15.000	12.000	18.000	13.000	20.000	1.000	7.2000	2.0667	0.8000	1.2000	0.8667	1.3333	0.0667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.7250
predicted_ER	0.6220
predicted_ERA	6.3332
predicted_H	0.8950
predicted_HR	0.0120
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1940
predicted_WHIP	1.8344

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.7250	0.4713	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.6220	1.1043	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	6.3332	6.3332	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	0.8950	1.6317	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0120	0.0078	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1940	1.1261	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.8344	1.8344	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	3
R	2
ER	2
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	22

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	7.20
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	7
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	6
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_MIL@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	592773
playerID	592773
playerName	Ryne Stanek
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	STL
teamID	26

Home Team: SD

Jackson Merrill (701538) · BATTER · CF · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 35

All-history rows before 20260508: 35

System season_avg: 0.2300

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2302

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.229	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.229	0.000	0.771	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.971	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.971	3.000	0.029	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.306	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.230	0.000	0.020	0.250
predicted_BB	0.343	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.343	1.000	0.657	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.210	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.914	0.000	0.086	1.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.114	0.000	-0.114	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.363	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.296	0.250	0.104	0.150
predicted_R	0.629	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.629	0.000	0.371	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.510	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.514	0.000	0.486	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.490	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.374	0.000	0.126	0.500
predicted_SO	1.029	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.029	1.000	-0.029	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.229	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.971	-
predicted_AVG	0.306	-
predicted_BB	0.343	-
predicted_H	1.210	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.363	-
predicted_R	0.629	-
predicted_RBI	0.510	-
predicted_SLG	0.490	-
predicted_SO	1.029	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.273	0.044
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.009	0.038
predicted_AVG	0.306	0.000
predicted_BB	0.350	0.007
predicted_H	1.225	0.015
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.149	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.363	-0.000
predicted_R	0.591	-0.038
predicted_RBI	0.513	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.490	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.992	-0.037

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.01), rates preserved: AVG=0.306 HR/AB=0.037

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, BvP AVG=0.167)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.971

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	5.000	0.3500	0.4091	0.6000	0.3500	0.0500	0.1500	0.1000	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	41.000	12.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	5.000	3.000	9.000	0.2927	0.3409	0.4146	0.2927	0.0244	0.0976	0.0732	0.2195
season	0.20	35	-	139.000	32.000	8.000	4.000	18.000	22.000	12.000	36.000	0.2302	0.2961	0.3741	0.2302	0.0288	0.1295	0.0863	0.2590

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2960
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.0290
predicted_AVG	0.3060
predicted_BB	0.3540
predicted_H	1.2330
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.1480
predicted_OBP	0.3626
predicted_R	0.5710
predicted_RBI	0.5140
predicted_SLG	0.4899
predicted_SO	0.9720

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2290	0.2960	0.2725	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9710	4.0290	4.0087	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3060	0.3060	0.3060	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3430	0.3540	0.3502	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2100	1.2330	1.2250	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1480	0.1487	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3630	0.3626	0.3627	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6290	0.5710	0.5913	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5100	0.5140	0.5126	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4900	0.4899	0.4899	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0290	0.9720	0.9919	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260507_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	701538
playerID	701538
playerName	Jackson Merrill
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	SD
teamID	23

Manny Machado (592518) · BATTER · 3B · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 35

All-history rows before 20260508: 35

System season_avg: 0.2020

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2016

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.114	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.114	0.000	-0.114	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.543	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.543	3.000	0.457	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.161	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.202	0.000	0.048	0.250
predicted_BB	0.600	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.600	1.000	-0.600	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_H	0.550	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.714	0.000	0.286	1.000
predicted_HR	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.248	0.200	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.313	0.250	-0.113	-0.050
predicted_R	0.600	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.600	1.000	0.400	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.514	0.000	0.486	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.364	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.355	0.000	-0.105	0.250
predicted_SO	0.886	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.886	0.000	0.114	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.114	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.543	-
predicted_AVG	0.161	-
predicted_BB	0.600	-
predicted_H	0.550	-
predicted_HR	0.200	-
predicted_OBP	0.248	-
predicted_R	0.600	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.364	-
predicted_SO	0.886	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.100	-0.014
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.677	0.134
predicted_AVG	0.161	0.000
predicted_BB	0.498	-0.102
predicted_H	0.586	0.036
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.215	0.015
predicted_OBP	0.248	0.000
predicted_R	0.645	0.045
predicted_RBI	0.425	0.025
predicted_SLG	0.364	0.000
predicted_SO	0.945	0.059

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.68), rates preserved: AVG=0.159 HR/AB=0.058

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, BvP AVG=0.667)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	2.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	1.000	1.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	5.000	0.1053	0.1905	0.2632	0.1053	0.0526	0.0526	0.1053	0.2632
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	8.000	2.000	3.000	7.000	8.000	4.000	10.000	0.2105	0.2857	0.5000	0.2105	0.0790	0.1842	0.1053	0.2632
season	0.20	35	-	124.000	25.000	4.000	5.000	18.000	21.000	21.000	31.000	0.2016	0.3129	0.3548	0.2016	0.0403	0.1452	0.1694	0.2500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0930
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7490
predicted_AVG	0.1614
predicted_BB	0.4430
predicted_H	0.6050
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.2230
predicted_OBP	0.2483
predicted_R	0.6700
predicted_RBI	0.4390
predicted_SLG	0.3644
predicted_SO	0.9770

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1140	0.0930	0.1003	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5430	3.7490	3.6769	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1610	0.1614	0.1613	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6000	0.4430	0.4980	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5500	0.6050	0.5857	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2000	0.2230	0.2149	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2480	0.2483	0.2482	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6000	0.6700	0.6455	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.4390	0.4254	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3640	0.3644	0.3643	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8860	0.9770	0.9451	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	1
HBP	0
season_avg	0.202

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260507_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	592518
playerID	592518
playerName	Manny Machado
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	SD
teamID	23

Miguel Andujar (609280) · BATTER · DH · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 25

All-history rows before 20260508: 25

System season_avg: 0.3120

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3118

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.280	0.000	-0.280	0.000
predicted_3B	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.080	0.000	-0.080	0.000
predicted_AB	3.720	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.720	4.000	-0.720	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.276	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.312	0.250	-0.312	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.120	0.000	-0.120	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.040	0.000	-0.040	0.000
predicted_H	0.930	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.160	1.000	-1.160	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.080	0.000	-0.080	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.288	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.340	0.250	-0.090	0.000
predicted_R	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.360	0.000	-0.360	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.040	0.000	-0.040	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.540	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.495	0.250	-0.495	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.680	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.680	2.000	-0.680	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.280	-
predicted_3B	0.080	-
predicted_AB	3.720	-
predicted_AVG	0.276	-
predicted_BB	0.120	-
predicted_H	0.930	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.288	-
predicted_R	0.360	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.540	-
predicted_SO	0.680	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.239	-0.041
predicted_3B	0.119	0.039
predicted_AB	3.820	0.100
predicted_AVG	0.276	0.000
predicted_BB	0.082	-0.038
predicted_H	1.021	0.091
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.166	0.016
predicted_OBP	0.288	0.000
predicted_R	0.381	0.021
predicted_RBI	0.416	0.036
predicted_SLG	0.540	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.673	-0.007

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.82), rates preserved: AVG=0.267 HR/AB=0.044

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 25

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	0.2500	0.2500	0.5500	0.2500	0.0500	0.1000	0.0000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	11.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	4.000	1.000	5.000	0.2895	0.3077	0.5526	0.2895	0.0526	0.1316	0.0263	0.1316
season	0.20	25	-	93.000	29.000	7.000	2.000	2.000	10.000	9.000	3.000	17.000	0.3118	0.3402	0.4946	0.3118	0.0215	0.1075	0.0323	0.1828

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2170
predicted_3B	0.1400
predicted_AB	3.8740
predicted_AVG	0.2762
predicted_BB	0.0610
predicted_H	1.0700
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.1750
predicted_OBP	0.2882
predicted_R	0.3920
predicted_RBI	0.4360
predicted_SLG	0.5398
predicted_SO	0.6690

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2800	0.2170	0.2391	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0800	0.1400	0.1190	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7200	3.8740	3.8201	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2760	0.2762	0.2761	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1200	0.0610	0.0817	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9300	1.0700	1.0210	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1750	0.1662	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2880	0.2882	0.2881	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3600	0.3920	0.3808	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.4360	0.4164	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5400	0.5398	0.5399	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6800	0.6690	0.6728	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	25
Season rows before report date	25
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	25
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.312

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260507_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	609280
playerID	609280
playerName	Miguel Andujar
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	SD
teamID	23

Ramón Laureano (657656) · BATTER · LF · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 32

All-history rows before 20260508: 32

System season_avg: 0.2340

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2339

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_3B	0.062	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_AB	3.875	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.875	2.000	-0.875	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.158	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.234	0.000	-0.234	0.000
predicted_BB	0.438	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.438	1.000	0.562	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.550	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.906	0.000	-0.906	0.000
predicted_HR	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.156	0.000	-0.156	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.304	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.312	0.333	-0.062	-0.083
predicted_R	0.531	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.531	0.000	-0.531	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.594	0.000	-0.594	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.316	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.419	0.000	-0.419	0.000
predicted_SO	1.281	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.281	1.000	0.719	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-
predicted_3B	0.062	-
predicted_AB	3.875	-
predicted_AVG	0.158	-
predicted_BB	0.438	-
predicted_H	0.550	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.304	-
predicted_R	0.531	-
predicted_RBI	0.280	-
predicted_SLG	0.316	-
predicted_SO	1.281	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.057	-0.068
predicted_3B	0.029	-0.033
predicted_AB	3.511	-0.364
predicted_AVG	0.158	0.000
predicted_BB	0.616	0.178
predicted_H	0.534	-0.016
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.164	-0.007
predicted_OBP	0.304	0.000
predicted_R	0.528	-0.003
predicted_RBI	0.273	-0.007
predicted_SLG	0.316	0.000
predicted_SO	1.376	0.095

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.88), rates preserved: AVG=0.138 HR/AB=0.042

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.875

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	7.000	0.1333	0.3158	0.3333	0.1333	0.0667	0.0667	0.2667	0.4667
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	7.000	15.000	0.1471	0.2857	0.2353	0.1471	0.0294	0.0588	0.2059	0.4412
season	0.20	32	-	124.000	29.000	4.000	2.000	5.000	19.000	17.000	14.000	41.000	0.2339	0.3121	0.4194	0.2339	0.0403	0.1532	0.1129	0.3306

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0210
predicted_3B	0.0110
predicted_AB	3.3150
predicted_AVG	0.1583
predicted_BB	0.7120
predicted_H	0.5250
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.1600
predicted_OBP	0.3045
predicted_R	0.5260
predicted_RBI	0.2690
predicted_SLG	0.3162
predicted_SO	1.4270

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1250	0.0210	0.0574	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0620	0.0110	0.0288	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8750	3.3150	3.5110	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1580	0.1583	0.1582	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4380	0.7120	0.6161	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5500	0.5250	0.5338	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.1600	0.1635	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3040	0.3045	0.3043	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5310	0.5260	0.5278	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2800	0.2690	0.2729	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3160	0.3162	0.3161	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2810	1.4270	1.3759	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.234

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260507_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	657656
playerID	657656
playerName	Ramón Laureano
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	SD
teamID	23

Freddy Fermin (666023) · BATTER · C · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 19

All-history rows before 20260508: 19

System season_avg: 0.1500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.211	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.211	0.000	-0.211	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.158	2.000	2.000	Hitting_AB	3.158	4.000	-1.158	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.102	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.150	0.000	0.350	0.500
predicted_BB	0.421	2.000	2.000	Hitting_BB	0.421	0.000	1.579	2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_H	0.270	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.474	0.000	0.526	1.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.193	0.750	0.750	Hitting_OBP	0.264	0.000	0.486	0.750
predicted_R	0.526	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.526	0.000	-0.526	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.158	0.000	-0.158	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.164	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.217	0.000	0.283	0.500
predicted_SO	0.789	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.789	0.000	-0.789	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.211	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.158	-
predicted_AVG	0.102	-
predicted_BB	0.421	-
predicted_H	0.270	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.193	-
predicted_R	0.526	-
predicted_RBI	0.090	-
predicted_SLG	0.164	-
predicted_SO	0.789	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.206	-0.005
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.216	0.058
predicted_AVG	0.102	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.379	-0.042
predicted_H	0.309	0.039
predicted_HBP	0.058	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.193	-0.000
predicted_R	0.326	-0.200
predicted_RBI	0.100	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.164	0.000
predicted_SO	0.716	-0.073

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.22), rates preserved: AVG=0.096 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-1.000
BB	2.000	2.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	0.0588	0.1111	0.1176	0.0588	0.0000	0.0588	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	-	31.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	7.000	0.1290	0.2564	0.1935	0.1290	0.0645	0.1613	0.2258
season	0.20	19	-	60.000	9.000	4.000	3.000	10.000	8.000	15.000	0.1500	0.2639	0.2167	0.1500	0.0500	0.1333	0.2500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2030
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.2470
predicted_AVG	0.1016
predicted_BB	0.3560
predicted_H	0.3300
predicted_HBP	0.0580
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.1925
predicted_R	0.2180
predicted_RBI	0.1060
predicted_SLG	0.1640
predicted_SO	0.6770

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2110	0.2030	0.2058	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1580	3.2470	3.2158	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1020	0.1016	0.1017	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4210	0.3560	0.3787	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.2700	0.3300	0.3090	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0580	0.0580	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1930	0.1925	0.1927	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5260	0.2180	0.3258	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0900	0.1060	0.1004	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1640	0.1640	0.1640	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7890	0.6770	0.7162	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260506_SD@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	666023
playerID	666023
playerName	Freddy Fermin
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	SD
teamID	23

Fernando Tatis Jr. (665487) · BATTER · RF · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 35

All-history rows before 20260508: 35

System season_avg: 0.2520

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2519

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_3B	0.029	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_AB	3.857	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.857	3.000	0.143	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.208	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.252	0.667	-0.252	-0.667
predicted_BB	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.086	1.000	-0.086	-1.000
predicted_H	0.760	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.971	2.000	-0.971	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.232	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.320	0.667	-0.320	-0.667
predicted_R	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.343	0.000	-0.343	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.257	0.000	-0.257	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.267	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.304	0.667	-0.304	-0.667
predicted_SO	1.086	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.086	1.000	0.914	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.029	-
predicted_AB	3.857	-
predicted_AVG	0.208	-
predicted_BB	0.400	-
predicted_H	0.760	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.232	-
predicted_R	0.400	-
predicted_RBI	0.100	-
predicted_SLG	0.267	-
predicted_SO	1.086	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.149	0.007
predicted_3B	0.037	0.008
predicted_AB	3.908	0.051
predicted_AVG	0.208	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.239	-0.161
predicted_H	0.797	0.037
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.232	-0.000
predicted_R	0.423	0.023
predicted_RBI	0.103	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.267	0.000
predicted_SO	1.076	-0.010

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.91), rates preserved: AVG=0.204 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.857

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	6.000	0.1500	0.1500	0.2000	0.1500	0.0000	0.0000	0.3000
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	10.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	9.000	0.2564	0.2857	0.3333	0.2564	0.0256	0.0513	0.2308
season	0.20	35	-	135.000	34.000	5.000	1.000	12.000	14.000	14.000	38.000	0.2519	0.3203	0.3037	0.2519	0.0889	0.1037	0.2815

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1530
predicted_3B	0.0410
predicted_AB	3.9360
predicted_AVG	0.2076
predicted_BB	0.1520
predicted_H	0.8170
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.2316
predicted_R	0.4350
predicted_RBI	0.1050
predicted_SLG	0.2674
predicted_SO	1.0710

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.1530	0.1495	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0290	0.0410	0.0368	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8570	3.9360	3.9084	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2080	0.2076	0.2077	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4000	0.1520	0.2388	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7600	0.8170	0.7971	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2320	0.2316	0.2317	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4000	0.4350	0.4227	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1000	0.1050	0.1033	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2670	0.2674	0.2673	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0860	1.0710	1.0762	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.252

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	1
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260507_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	665487
playerID	665487
playerName	Fernando Tatis Jr.
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	SD
teamID	23

Sung-Mun Song (823550) · BATTER · 2B · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 2

All-history rows before 20260508: 2

System season_avg: 0.3330

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3333

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	2.000	1.000	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.333	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.333	0.000	0.167	0.500
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.830	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.333	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.000	0.167	0.500
predicted_R	1.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	1.000	0.000	-1.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.830	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	1.000	0.000	-1.000	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.500	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.500	0.000	0.000	0.500
predicted_SO	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.500	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.333	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.830	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.333	-
predicted_R	1.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.830	-
predicted_SLG	0.500	-
predicted_SO	0.500	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.500	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.333	0.000
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.941	0.111
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.333	0.000
predicted_R	1.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.941	0.111
predicted_SLG	0.500	0.000
predicted_SO	0.500	0.000

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.314 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	2	-	6.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	0.3333	0.3333	0.5000	0.3333	0.3333	0.1667
last_10	0.35	2	-	6.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	0.3333	0.3333	0.5000	0.3333	0.3333	0.1667
season	0.20	2	-	6.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	0.3333	0.3333	0.5000	0.3333	0.3333	0.1667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.5000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.0000
predicted_AVG	0.3333
predicted_BB	0.0000
predicted_H	1.0000
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.3333
predicted_R	1.0000
predicted_RBI	1.0000
predicted_SLG	0.5000
predicted_SO	0.5000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.5000	0.5000	0.5000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.0000	3.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3330	0.3333	0.3332	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8300	1.0000	0.9405	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3330	0.3333	0.3332	model_form_blend
predicted_R	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.8300	1.0000	0.9405	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5000	0.5000	0.5000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5000	0.5000	0.5000	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.333

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260506_SD@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	823550
playerID	823550
playerName	Sung-Mun Song
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	SD
teamID	23

Xander Bogaerts (593428) · BATTER · SS · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 35

All-history rows before 20260508: 35

System season_avg: 0.2710

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2713

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.057	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.057	0.000	-0.057	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.686	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.686	3.000	0.314	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.274	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.271	0.333	-0.271	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.457	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.457	0.000	0.543	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.980	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.171	0.000	-0.171	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.350	0.200	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.352	0.333	-0.152	-0.133
predicted_R	0.457	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.457	0.000	-0.457	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.670	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.600	1.000	-0.600	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.114	0.000	-0.114	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.443	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.426	0.333	-0.426	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.629	3.000	3.000	Hitting_SO	0.629	1.000	2.371	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.057	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.686	-
predicted_AVG	0.274	-
predicted_BB	0.457	-
predicted_H	0.980	-
predicted_HR	0.200	-
predicted_OBP	0.350	-
predicted_R	0.457	-
predicted_RBI	0.670	-
predicted_SLG	0.443	-
predicted_SO	0.629	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.027	-0.030
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.583	-0.103
predicted_AVG	0.274	0.000
predicted_BB	0.427	-0.030
predicted_H	0.972	-0.008
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.197	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.350	-0.000
predicted_R	0.472	0.015
predicted_RBI	0.663	-0.007
predicted_SLG	0.443	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.742	0.113

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.69), rates preserved: AVG=0.264 HR/AB=0.053

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, BvP AVG=0.333)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	0.2941	0.3684	0.4706	0.2941	0.0588	0.2353	0.1177	0.2353
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	9.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	6.000	4.000	9.000	0.2500	0.3250	0.4167	0.2500	0.0556	0.1389	0.1111	0.2500
season	0.20	35	-	129.000	35.000	2.000	6.000	21.000	16.000	16.000	22.000	0.2713	0.3517	0.4264	0.2713	0.0465	0.1628	0.1240	0.1705

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0110
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.5270
predicted_AVG	0.2741
predicted_BB	0.4110
predicted_H	0.9670
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1950
predicted_OBP	0.3499
predicted_R	0.4800
predicted_RBI	0.6600
predicted_SLG	0.4429
predicted_SO	0.8020

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0570	0.0110	0.0271	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6860	3.5270	3.5827	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2740	0.2741	0.2741	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4570	0.4110	0.4271	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9800	0.9670	0.9716	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2000	0.1950	0.1967	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3500	0.3499	0.3499	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4570	0.4800	0.4719	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6700	0.6600	0.6635	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4430	0.4429	0.4429	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6290	0.8020	0.7415	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.271

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	1
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260507_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	593428
playerID	593428
playerName	Xander Bogaerts
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	SD
teamID	23

Gavin Sheets (657757) · BATTER · 1B · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 26

All-history rows before 20260508: 26

System season_avg: 0.2150

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2151

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.308	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.308	0.000	-0.308	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.577	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.577	3.000	1.423	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.189	0.400	0.400	Hitting_AVG	0.215	0.333	0.185	0.067
predicted_BB	0.192	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.192	0.000	-0.192	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.650	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.769	1.000	1.231	1.000
predicted_HR	0.150	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.115	1.000	0.885	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.263	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.263	0.333	0.137	0.067
predicted_R	0.385	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.385	1.000	0.615	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.270	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.346	1.000	0.654	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.341	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SLG	0.398	1.333	0.602	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.846	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.846	0.000	-0.846	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.308	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.577	-
predicted_AVG	0.189	-
predicted_BB	0.192	-
predicted_H	0.650	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.263	-
predicted_R	0.385	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.341	-
predicted_SO	0.846	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.145	-0.163
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.426	-0.151
predicted_AVG	0.189	0.000
predicted_BB	0.197	0.005
predicted_H	0.639	-0.011
predicted_HBP	0.136	-
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.263	-0.000
predicted_R	0.371	-0.014
predicted_RBI	0.265	-0.005
predicted_SLG	0.341	0.000
predicted_SO	0.739	-0.107

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.58), rates preserved: AVG=0.179 HR/AB=0.042

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 26

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	0.1875	0.2778	0.3750	0.1875	0.0625	0.0625	0.0625	0.1875
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	6.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	7.000	0.1765	0.2432	0.2647	0.1765	0.0294	0.0882	0.0588	0.2059
season	0.20	26	-	93.000	20.000	8.000	3.000	9.000	10.000	5.000	22.000	0.2151	0.2626	0.3978	0.2150	0.0323	0.0968	0.0538	0.2366

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0580
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.3450
predicted_AVG	0.1892
predicted_BB	0.1990
predicted_H	0.6330
predicted_HBP	0.1360
predicted_HR	0.1500
predicted_OBP	0.2626
predicted_R	0.3630
predicted_RBI	0.2620
predicted_SLG	0.3410
predicted_SO	0.6820

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3080	0.0580	0.1455	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5770	3.3450	3.4262	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1890	0.1892	0.1891	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1920	0.1990	0.1966	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6500	0.6330	0.6390	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1360	0.1360	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1500	0.1500	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2630	0.2626	0.2627	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3850	0.3630	0.3707	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.2620	0.2648	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3410	0.3410	0.3410	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8460	0.6820	0.7394	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	26
Season rows before report date	26
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	26
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.215

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260506_SD@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	657757
playerID	657757
playerName	Gavin Sheets
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	SD
teamID	23

Griffin Canning (656288) · PITCHER · Starter · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 1

All-history rows before 20260508: 1

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_IP	4.100	4.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.000	5.000	-0.900	-0.900
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	-	Pitching_SO	7.000	7.000	-2.000	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 4.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	1	5.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	7.000	1.000	1.8000	1.2000	0.2000	0.6000	0.6000	1.4000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	1	5.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	7.000	1.000	1.8000	1.2000	0.2000	0.6000	0.6000	1.4000	0.2000
season	0.20	1	5.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	7.000	1.000	1.8000	1.2000	0.2000	0.6000	0.6000	1.4000	0.2000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	3.0000
predicted_ER	1.0000
predicted_ERA	1.8000
predicted_H	3.0000
predicted_HR	1.0000
predicted_IP	5.0000
predicted_SO	7.0000
predicted_WHIP	1.2000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	3.0000	2.3000	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	1.0000	1.3500	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.8000	1.8000	form_only
predicted_H	5.0000	3.0000	3.7000	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	1.0000	0.6500	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.1000	5.0000	4.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	7.0000	6.3000	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2000	1.2000	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.1
H	5
R	2
ER	2
BB	1
SO	5
HR	0
BF	21
Pitches	87

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	1
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	19
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	1.80
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.0
Pitching_Pitches	73
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	7
Pitching_Strikes	42
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_CHW@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	656288
playerID	656288
playerName	Griffin Canning
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	SD
teamID	23

Jason Adam (592094) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 12

All-history rows before 20260508: 12

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.167	0.000	0.833	1.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.858	1.000	0.342	0.200
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.417	0.000	1.583	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	1.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.6875	0.9375	0.1875	0.5625	0.3750	0.5625	0.1875
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	2.000	7.000	3.000	5.000	1.000	1.7419	0.9677	0.1935	0.6774	0.2903	0.4839	0.0968
season	0.20	12	11.000	2.000	7.000	3.000	5.000	1.000	1.6364	0.9091	0.1818	0.6364	0.2727	0.4546	0.0909

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3250
predicted_ER	0.1880
predicted_ERA	1.6963
predicted_H	0.6170
predicted_HR	0.1360
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.5130
predicted_WHIP	0.9424

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3250	0.2113	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.1880	0.4722	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.6963	1.6963	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.6170	0.7510	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.1360	0.4384	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.0000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.5130	1.0334	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9424	0.9424	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	2
HR	1
BF	4
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.64
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	23
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	17
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	592094
playerID	592094
playerName	Jason Adam
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SD
teamID	23

Jeremiah Estrada (669093) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 9

All-history rows before 20260508: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.556	1.000	1.444	1.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.944	1.200	0.256	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.444	2.000	-0.444	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	7.000	1.000	1.5000	1.0000	0.1667	0.6667	0.3333	1.1667	0.1667
last_10	0.35	9	9.200	5.000	6.000	5.000	13.000	1.000	4.6552	1.1379	0.5172	0.6207	0.5172	1.3448	0.1035
season	0.20	9	9.200	5.000	6.000	5.000	13.000	1.000	4.6552	1.1379	0.5172	0.6207	0.5172	1.3448	0.1035

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5000
predicted_ER	0.4130
predicted_ERA	3.2354
predicted_H	0.7380
predicted_HR	0.1520
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.4540
predicted_WHIP	1.0758

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.5000	0.6750	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.4130	0.9685	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.2354	3.2354	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	0.7380	1.5297	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1520	0.0988	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.0000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.4540	1.2951	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0758	1.0758	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	3
R	2
ER	2
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	7
Pitches	26

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	4.66
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.2
Pitching_Pitches	21
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	16
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_SD@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	669093
playerID	669093
playerName	Jeremiah Estrada
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SD
teamID	23

Mason Miller (695243) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 17

All-history rows before 20260508: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.006	1.000	-0.006	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	2.000	2.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	7.000	3.6000	1.0000	0.4000	0.8000	0.2000	1.4000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	2.000	6.000	2.000	15.000	1.8000	0.8000	0.2000	0.6000	0.2000	1.5000
season	0.20	17	17.100	2.000	7.000	3.000	34.000	1.0385	0.5769	0.1154	0.4038	0.1731	1.9615

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1950
predicted_ER	0.2730
predicted_ERA	2.4577
predicted_H	0.6510
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.5470
predicted_WHIP	0.8454

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1950	0.1268	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2730	0.1775	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.4577	2.4577	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6510	0.4232	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.5470	1.3556	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.8454	0.8454	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.04
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_SD@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	695243
playerID	695243
playerName	Mason Miller
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SD
teamID	23

Adrian Morejon (670970) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 16

All-history rows before 20260508: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.750	0.000	0.250	1.000
predicted_IP	0.100	0.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.075	2.000	-0.975	-1.900
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.562	4.000	-1.562	-4.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 0.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	7.100	3.000	5.000	3.000	12.000	1.000	3.6818	1.0909	0.4091	0.6818	0.4091	1.6364	0.1364
last_10	0.35	10	13.100	4.000	6.000	4.000	20.000	2.000	2.7000	0.7500	0.3000	0.4500	0.3000	1.5000	0.1500
season	0.20	16	20.000	12.000	21.000	5.000	25.000	2.000	5.4000	1.3000	0.6000	1.0500	0.2500	1.2500	0.1000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4520
predicted_ER	0.5450
predicted_ERA	3.6818
predicted_H	0.8990
predicted_HR	0.1780
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	2.0150
predicted_WHIP	1.0134

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.4520	0.9938	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.5450	0.7043	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.6818	3.6818	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.8990	0.9344	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1780	0.1157	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	1.1000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	2.0150	1.3098	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0134	1.0134	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.1
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	2
SO	0
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	29

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.40
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	26
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	4
Pitching_Strikes	20
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_SD@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	670970
playerID	670970
playerName	Adrian Morejon
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SD
teamID	23

20260508_TB@BOS

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3, "confidence": 0.629251778060636, "home_win_probability": 0.37074822193936396, "away_win_probability": 0.629251778060636, "predicted_score_text": "TB 5 - 3 BOS", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to final winner probability with starter-quality caps.", "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score", "final_prediction_synced": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "TB 5 - 3 BOS", "winner": "TB"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "TB 5 - 3 BOS", "winner": "TB"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"}}

Away Team: TB

Ryan Vilade (668723) · BATTER · RF · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 12

All-history rows before 20260508: 12

System season_avg: 0.3140

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3143

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.083	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.083	0.000	0.917	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.917	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	2.917	3.000	1.083	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.265	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.314	0.333	-0.064	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.250	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.250	0.000	0.750	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.750	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.917	1.000	0.083	0.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.323	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.368	0.333	0.032	0.067
predicted_R	0.417	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.417	0.000	0.583	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.790	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	0.667	0.000	1.333	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.440	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.429	0.333	0.071	0.167
predicted_SO	0.583	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.583	0.000	0.417	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.083	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.917	-
predicted_AVG	0.265	-
predicted_BB	0.250	-
predicted_H	0.750	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.323	-
predicted_R	0.417	-
predicted_RBI	0.790	-
predicted_SLG	0.440	-
predicted_SO	0.583	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.061	-0.022
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.820	-0.097
predicted_AVG	0.265	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.246	-0.004
predicted_H	0.739	-0.011
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.147	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.323	0.000
predicted_R	0.368	-0.049
predicted_RBI	0.781	-0.009
predicted_SLG	0.440	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.487	-0.096

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.92), rates preserved: AVG=0.253 HR/AB=0.050

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	13.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	0.1538	0.2143	0.3846	0.1538	0.0769	0.3077	0.0769	0.1538
last_10	0.35	10	-	29.000	11.000	1.000	1.000	8.000	5.000	3.000	4.000	0.3793	0.4375	0.5172	0.3793	0.0345	0.2759	0.1035	0.1379
season	0.20	12	-	35.000	11.000	1.000	1.000	8.000	5.000	3.000	7.000	0.3143	0.3684	0.4286	0.3143	0.0286	0.2286	0.0857	0.2000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0490
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.7680
predicted_AVG	0.2648
predicted_BB	0.2440
predicted_H	0.7330
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1450
predicted_OBP	0.3232
predicted_R	0.3420
predicted_RBI	0.7770
predicted_SLG	0.4398
predicted_SO	0.4360

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0830	0.0490	0.0609	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.9170	2.7680	2.8201	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2650	0.2648	0.2649	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2500	0.2440	0.2461	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7500	0.7330	0.7389	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1450	0.1467	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3230	0.3232	0.3231	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4170	0.3420	0.3683	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7900	0.7770	0.7815	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4400	0.4398	0.4399	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5830	0.4360	0.4874	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.314

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260507_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	668723
playerID	668723
playerName	Ryan Vilade
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	TB
teamID	27

Chandler Simpson (802415) · BATTER · LF · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 34

All-history rows before 20260508: 34

System season_avg: 0.2970

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2971

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.029	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_3B	0.059	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_AB	4.059	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	4.059	4.000	-1.059	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.272	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.297	0.250	-0.297	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.206	2.000	2.000	Hitting_BB	0.206	0.000	1.794	2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_H	0.990	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.206	1.000	-1.206	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.281	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.327	0.250	0.073	0.150
predicted_R	0.441	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.441	0.000	-0.441	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.206	1.000	-0.206	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.324	0.000	-0.324	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.288	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.333	0.250	-0.333	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.441	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.441	0.000	-0.441	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.029	-
predicted_3B	0.059	-
predicted_AB	4.059	-
predicted_AVG	0.272	-
predicted_BB	0.206	-
predicted_H	0.990	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.281	-
predicted_R	0.441	-
predicted_RBI	0.180	-
predicted_SLG	0.288	-
predicted_SO	0.441	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.037	0.008
predicted_3B	0.028	-0.031
predicted_AB	4.087	0.028
predicted_AVG	0.272	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.122	-0.084
predicted_H	1.071	0.081
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.281	-0.000
predicted_R	0.557	0.116
predicted_RBI	0.194	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.288	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.557	0.116

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.09), rates preserved: AVG=0.262 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	2.000	2.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 4.059

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	0.000	4.000	0.2381	0.2381	0.2381	0.2381	0.0476	0.0000	0.1905
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	12.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	1.000	5.000	0.3000	0.3095	0.3250	0.3000	0.0500	0.0250	0.1250
season	0.20	34	-	138.000	41.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	15.000	7.000	15.000	0.2971	0.3265	0.3333	0.2971	0.0507	0.0507	0.1087

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0420
predicted_3B	0.0120
predicted_AB	4.1020
predicted_AVG	0.2716
predicted_BB	0.0770
predicted_H	1.1140
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.2808
predicted_R	0.6200
predicted_RBI	0.2010
predicted_SLG	0.2876
predicted_SO	0.6200

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0290	0.0420	0.0374	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0590	0.0120	0.0284	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0590	4.1020	4.0869	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2720	0.2716	0.2717	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2060	0.0770	0.1222	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9900	1.1140	1.0706	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2810	0.2808	0.2809	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4410	0.6200	0.5574	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1800	0.2010	0.1937	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2880	0.2876	0.2877	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4410	0.6200	0.5574	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.297

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260506_TOR@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	802415
playerID	802415
playerName	Chandler Simpson
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	TB
teamID	27

Taylor Walls (670764) · BATTER · SS · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 25

All-history rows before 20260508: 25

System season_avg: 0.1970

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1974

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.120	0.000	-0.120	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.040	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.040	3.000	-0.040	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.171	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.197	0.000	-0.197	0.000
predicted_BB	0.440	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.440	1.000	-0.440	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.040	0.000	-0.040	0.000
predicted_H	0.430	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.600	0.000	-0.600	0.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.328	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.307	0.250	-0.057	0.000
predicted_R	0.440	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.440	0.000	-0.440	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.240	0.000	-0.240	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.206	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.237	0.000	-0.237	0.000
predicted_SO	0.880	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.880	1.000	0.120	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.120	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.040	-
predicted_AVG	0.171	-
predicted_BB	0.440	-
predicted_H	0.430	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.328	-
predicted_R	0.440	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.206	-
predicted_SO	0.880	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.105	-0.015
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.870	-0.170
predicted_AVG	0.171	0.000
predicted_BB	0.575	0.135
predicted_H	0.459	0.029
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.328	-0.000
predicted_R	0.337	-0.103
predicted_RBI	0.287	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.206	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.641	-0.239

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.04), rates preserved: AVG=0.151 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 25

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	0.1429	0.2941	0.1429	0.1429	0.1429	0.2143	0.0714
last_10	0.35	10	-	26.000	5.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	8.000	7.000	0.1923	0.3824	0.2692	0.1923	0.0769	0.3077	0.2692
season	0.20	25	-	76.000	15.000	3.000	6.000	11.000	11.000	22.000	0.1974	0.3068	0.2368	0.1974	0.0790	0.1447	0.2895

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0970
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.7780
predicted_AVG	0.1711
predicted_BB	0.6470
predicted_H	0.4750
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.3275
predicted_R	0.2820
predicted_RBI	0.2970
predicted_SLG	0.2059
predicted_SO	0.5120

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1200	0.0970	0.1051	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0400	2.7780	2.8697	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1710	0.1711	0.1711	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4400	0.6470	0.5746	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4300	0.4750	0.4592	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3280	0.3275	0.3277	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4400	0.2820	0.3373	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.2970	0.2875	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2060	0.2059	0.2059	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8800	0.5120	0.6408	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	25
Season rows before report date	25
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	25
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.197

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260507_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	670764
playerID	670764
playerName	Taylor Walls
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	TB
teamID	27

Junior Caminero (691406) · BATTER · 3B · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 36

All-history rows before 20260508: 36

System season_avg: 0.2610

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2609

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.083	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.833	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.833	4.000	0.167	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.247	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.261	0.500	0.239	0.000
predicted_BB	0.556	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.556	1.000	0.444	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_H	0.920	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	1.000	2.000	1.000	0.000
predicted_HR	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.278	1.000	-0.278	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.403	0.600	0.600	Hitting_OBP	0.352	0.600	0.248	0.000
predicted_R	0.639	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.639	2.000	0.361	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	2.000	0.500	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.441	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.500	1.250	0.000	-0.750
predicted_SO	0.750	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.750	0.000	0.250	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.083	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.833	-
predicted_AVG	0.247	-
predicted_BB	0.556	-
predicted_H	0.920	-
predicted_HR	0.240	-
predicted_OBP	0.403	-
predicted_R	0.639	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.441	-
predicted_SO	0.750	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.039	-0.044
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.550	-0.283
predicted_AVG	0.247	0.000
predicted_BB	0.790	0.234
predicted_H	0.867	-0.053
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.224	-0.016
predicted_OBP	0.403	0.000
predicted_R	0.682	0.043
predicted_RBI	0.397	-0.023
predicted_SLG	0.441	0.000
predicted_SO	0.678	-0.072

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.83), rates preserved: AVG=0.226 HR/AB=0.058

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.833

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	6.000	2.000	0.2500	0.4545	0.4375	0.2500	0.0625	0.1250	0.3750	0.1250
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	8.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	6.000	7.000	9.000	0.2353	0.3659	0.4118	0.2353	0.0588	0.0882	0.2059	0.2647
season	0.20	36	-	138.000	36.000	3.000	10.000	18.000	23.000	20.000	27.000	0.2609	0.3522	0.5000	0.2609	0.0725	0.1304	0.1449	0.1956

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0150
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.3970
predicted_AVG	0.2470
predicted_BB	0.9160
predicted_H	0.8390
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.2150
predicted_OBP	0.4030
predicted_R	0.7050
predicted_RBI	0.3850
predicted_SLG	0.4410
predicted_SO	0.6390

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0830	0.0150	0.0388	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8330	3.3970	3.5496	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2470	0.2470	0.2470	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5560	0.9160	0.7900	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9200	0.8390	0.8674	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2400	0.2150	0.2238	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4030	0.4030	0.4030	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6390	0.7050	0.6819	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.3850	0.3972	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4410	0.4410	0.4410	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7500	0.6390	0.6778	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.261

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260507_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	691406
playerID	691406
playerName	Junior Caminero
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	TB
teamID	27

Jonny DeLuca (676356) · BATTER · CF · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 18

All-history rows before 20260508: 18

System season_avg: 0.2770

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2769

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.222	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.222	0.000	0.778	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.611	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.611	4.000	0.389	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.290	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.277	0.500	-0.027	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.222	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.222	1.000	0.778	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	2.000	0.000	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.335	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.319	0.600	0.081	-0.200
predicted_R	0.667	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.667	2.000	0.333	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.190	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.389	0.000	0.611	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.222	1.000	-0.222	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.380	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.385	0.500	0.115	0.000
predicted_SO	0.611	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.611	0.000	0.389	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.222	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.611	-
predicted_AVG	0.290	-
predicted_BB	0.222	-
predicted_H	1.000	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.335	-
predicted_R	0.667	-
predicted_RBI	0.190	-
predicted_SLG	0.380	-
predicted_SO	0.611	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.267	0.045
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.618	0.007
predicted_AVG	0.290	0.000
predicted_BB	0.235	0.013
predicted_H	1.033	0.033
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.011	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.335	-0.000
predicted_R	0.713	0.046
predicted_RBI	0.197	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.380	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.582	-0.029

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.62), rates preserved: AVG=0.286 HR/AB=0.003

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	3.000	0.3158	0.3500	0.4211	0.3158	0.0000	0.0526	0.0526	0.1579
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	9.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	7.000	3.000	5.000	0.2647	0.3243	0.3235	0.2647	0.0000	0.0294	0.0882	0.1471
season	0.20	18	-	65.000	18.000	4.000	1.000	7.000	12.000	4.000	11.000	0.2769	0.3188	0.3846	0.2769	0.0154	0.1077	0.0615	0.1692

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2910
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.6220
predicted_AVG	0.2901
predicted_BB	0.2420
predicted_H	1.0510
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0110
predicted_OBP	0.3348
predicted_R	0.7380
predicted_RBI	0.2010
predicted_SLG	0.3796
predicted_SO	0.5660

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2220	0.2910	0.2668	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6110	3.6220	3.6181	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2900	0.2901	0.2901	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2220	0.2420	0.2350	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0000	1.0510	1.0332	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0110	0.0106	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3350	0.3348	0.3349	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6670	0.7380	0.7131	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1900	0.2010	0.1971	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3800	0.3796	0.3797	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6110	0.5660	0.5817	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.277

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260507_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	676356
playerID	676356
playerName	Jonny DeLuca
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	TB
teamID	27

Jonathan Aranda (666018) · BATTER · 1B · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 35

All-history rows before 20260508: 35

System season_avg: 0.2670

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2672

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.743	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.743	5.000	0.257	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.392	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.267	0.000	-0.017	0.250
predicted_BB	0.543	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.543	0.000	0.457	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.410	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.459	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.361	0.000	0.039	0.400
predicted_R	0.514	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.514	0.000	-0.514	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.590	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.829	0.000	-0.829	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.491	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.466	0.000	-0.216	0.250
predicted_SO	1.029	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.029	1.000	0.971	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.743	-
predicted_AVG	0.392	-
predicted_BB	0.543	-
predicted_H	1.410	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.459	-
predicted_R	0.514	-
predicted_RBI	0.590	-
predicted_SLG	0.491	-
predicted_SO	1.029	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.150	0.007
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.796	0.053
predicted_AVG	0.392	0.000
predicted_BB	0.425	-0.118
predicted_H	1.468	0.058
predicted_HBP	0.137	-
predicted_HR	0.073	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.459	0.000
predicted_R	0.455	-0.059
predicted_RBI	0.613	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.491	0.000
predicted_SO	0.837	-0.192

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.80), rates preserved: AVG=0.387 HR/AB=0.019

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	2.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	2.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	9.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	0.4737	0.5455	0.5263	0.4737	0.0000	0.1053	0.1053	0.1053
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	14.000	1.000	1.000	8.000	4.000	2.000	10.000	0.3590	0.4048	0.4615	0.3590	0.0256	0.2051	0.0513	0.2564
season	0.20	35	-	131.000	35.000	5.000	7.000	29.000	18.000	19.000	36.000	0.2672	0.3613	0.4656	0.2672	0.0534	0.2214	0.1450	0.2748

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1540
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.8240
predicted_AVG	0.3923
predicted_BB	0.3610
predicted_H	1.5000
predicted_HBP	0.1370
predicted_HR	0.0750
predicted_OBP	0.4594
predicted_R	0.4230
predicted_RBI	0.6250
predicted_SLG	0.4915
predicted_SO	0.7340

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.1540	0.1502	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7430	3.8240	3.7956	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3920	0.3923	0.3922	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5430	0.3610	0.4247	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.4100	1.5000	1.4685	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1370	0.1370	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0750	0.0733	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4590	0.4594	0.4593	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5140	0.4230	0.4549	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5900	0.6250	0.6128	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4910	0.4915	0.4913	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0290	0.7340	0.8373	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.267

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260507_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	666018
playerID	666018
playerName	Jonathan Aranda
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	TB
teamID	27

Nick Fortes (663743) · BATTER · C · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 23

All-history rows before 20260508: 23

System season_avg: 0.2780

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2785

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.217	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.217	0.000	0.783	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.435	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.435	2.000	0.565	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.266	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.278	0.500	0.222	0.000
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.780	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.957	1.000	1.043	1.000
predicted_HR	0.010	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.043	0.000	0.957	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.278	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.296	0.500	0.204	0.000
predicted_R	0.261	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.261	1.000	0.739	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.090	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.304	0.000	0.696	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.298	1.500	1.500	Hitting_SLG	0.380	0.500	1.120	1.000
predicted_SO	0.522	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.522	0.000	-0.522	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.217	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.435	-
predicted_AVG	0.266	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.780	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.278	-
predicted_R	0.261	-
predicted_RBI	0.090	-
predicted_SLG	0.298	-
predicted_SO	0.522	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.123	-0.094
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.150	-0.285
predicted_AVG	0.266	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.791	0.011
predicted_HBP	0.050	-
predicted_HR	0.009	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.278	0.000
predicted_R	0.229	-0.032
predicted_RBI	0.089	-0.001
predicted_SLG	0.298	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.435	-0.087

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.44), rates preserved: AVG=0.230 HR/AB=0.003

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 23

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	0.2857	0.2857	0.2857	0.2857	0.0000	0.0000	0.1429
last_10	0.35	10	-	30.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	0.2333	0.2581	0.2667	0.2333	0.0000	0.0333	0.1000
season	0.20	23	-	79.000	22.000	5.000	1.000	7.000	6.000	12.000	0.2785	0.2963	0.3797	0.2785	0.0127	0.0886	0.1519

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0730
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.9970
predicted_AVG	0.2659
predicted_BB	0.0000
predicted_H	0.7970
predicted_HBP	0.0500
predicted_HR	0.0080
predicted_OBP	0.2782
predicted_R	0.2120
predicted_RBI	0.0880
predicted_SLG	0.2979
predicted_SO	0.3890

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2170	0.0730	0.1234	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4350	2.9970	3.1503	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2660	0.2659	0.2659	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7800	0.7970	0.7911	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0500	0.0500	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0080	0.0087	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2780	0.2782	0.2781	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2610	0.2120	0.2292	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0900	0.0880	0.0887	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2980	0.2979	0.2979	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5220	0.3890	0.4355	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	23
Season rows before report date	23
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	23
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.278

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260507_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	663743
playerID	663743
playerName	Nick Fortes
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	TB
teamID	27

Ben Williamson (810938) · BATTER · 2B · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 26

All-history rows before 20260508: 26

System season_avg: 0.2530

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2529

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.192	0.000	-0.192	0.000
predicted_3B	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.038	0.000	-0.038	0.000
predicted_AB	3.480	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.346	4.000	1.654	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.253	0.500	-0.253	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.423	1.000	-0.423	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.846	2.000	-0.846	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.411	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.337	0.600	-0.337	-0.600
predicted_R	0.520	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.500	2.000	-0.500	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.340	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.462	1.000	-0.462	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.378	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.333	0.500	-0.333	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.840	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.808	0.000	1.192	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.040	-
predicted_AB	3.480	-
predicted_AVG	0.333	-
predicted_BB	0.400	-
predicted_H	1.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.411	-
predicted_R	0.520	-
predicted_RBI	0.340	-
predicted_SLG	0.378	-
predicted_SO	0.840	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.119	-0.081
predicted_3B	0.042	0.002
predicted_AB	3.542	0.062
predicted_AVG	0.333	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.458	0.058
predicted_H	1.123	0.123
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.411	0.000
predicted_R	0.516	-0.004
predicted_RBI	0.384	0.044
predicted_SLG	0.378	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.681	-0.159

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.54), rates preserved: AVG=0.317 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 25

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	7.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	0.3889	0.4762	0.3889	0.3889	0.1111	0.1667	0.1111
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	11.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	4.000	7.000	0.3056	0.3750	0.3889	0.3056	0.1111	0.1111	0.1944
season	0.20	25	-	87.000	22.000	5.000	1.000	11.000	13.000	10.000	21.000	0.2529	0.3299	0.3333	0.2529	0.1264	0.1149	0.2414

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0760
predicted_3B	0.0430
predicted_AB	3.5760
predicted_AVG	0.3325
predicted_BB	0.4890
predicted_H	1.1890
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.4115
predicted_R	0.5140
predicted_RBI	0.4080
predicted_SLG	0.3778
predicted_SO	0.5950

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.0760	0.1194	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0400	0.0430	0.0420	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4800	3.5760	3.5424	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3330	0.3325	0.3327	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4000	0.4890	0.4578	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0000	1.1890	1.1229	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4110	0.4115	0.4113	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5200	0.5140	0.5161	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3400	0.4080	0.3842	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3780	0.3778	0.3779	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8400	0.5950	0.6807	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	26
Season rows before report date	26
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	25
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.253

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260507_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	810938
playerID	810938
playerName	Ben Williamson
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	TB
teamID	27

Yandy Díaz (650490) · BATTER · DH · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 35

All-history rows before 20260508: 35

System season_avg: 0.3230

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3233

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.114	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.114	1.000	-0.114	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.029	1.000	1.000	Hitting_3B	0.029	0.000	0.971	1.000
predicted_AB	3.810	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.800	4.000	1.200	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.290	0.400	0.400	Hitting_AVG	0.323	0.500	0.077	-0.100
predicted_BB	0.371	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.371	0.000	-0.371	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.100	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	1.229	2.000	0.771	0.000
predicted_HR	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.328	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.401	0.400	-0.001	0.000
predicted_R	0.571	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.571	0.000	0.429	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.610	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.657	1.000	-0.657	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.491	0.800	0.800	Hitting_SLG	0.481	0.750	0.319	0.050
predicted_SO	0.486	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.486	1.000	-0.486	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.114	-
predicted_3B	0.029	-
predicted_AB	3.810	-
predicted_AVG	0.290	-
predicted_BB	0.371	-
predicted_H	1.100	-
predicted_HR	0.200	-
predicted_OBP	0.328	-
predicted_R	0.571	-
predicted_RBI	0.610	-
predicted_SLG	0.491	-
predicted_SO	0.486	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.136	0.022
predicted_3B	0.013	-0.016
predicted_AB	3.677	-0.133
predicted_AVG	0.290	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.246	-0.125
predicted_H	1.064	-0.036
predicted_HBP	0.063	-
predicted_HR	0.193	-0.007
predicted_OBP	0.328	-0.000
predicted_R	0.551	-0.019
predicted_RBI	0.587	-0.023
predicted_SLG	0.491	0.000
predicted_SO	0.359	-0.127

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.81), rates preserved: AVG=0.279 HR/AB=0.051

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	1.000	1.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.810

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	0.2778	0.2778	0.5000	0.2778	0.0556	0.1667	0.0000	0.0556
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	10.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	7.000	3.000	3.000	0.2857	0.3500	0.4857	0.2857	0.0571	0.1429	0.0857	0.0857
season	0.20	35	-	133.000	43.000	4.000	1.000	5.000	23.000	20.000	13.000	17.000	0.3233	0.4013	0.4812	0.3233	0.0376	0.1729	0.0977	0.1278

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1480
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.6050
predicted_AVG	0.2897
predicted_BB	0.1790
predicted_H	1.0440
predicted_HBP	0.0630
predicted_HR	0.1890
predicted_OBP	0.3278
predicted_R	0.5410
predicted_RBI	0.5750
predicted_SLG	0.4912
predicted_SO	0.2900

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1140	0.1480	0.1361	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0290	0.0050	0.0134	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8100	3.6050	3.6768	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2900	0.2897	0.2898	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3710	0.1790	0.2462	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1000	1.0440	1.0636	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0630	0.0630	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2000	0.1890	0.1928	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3280	0.3278	0.3279	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5710	0.5410	0.5515	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6100	0.5750	0.5872	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4910	0.4912	0.4911	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4860	0.2900	0.3586	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	1
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.323

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260507_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	650490
playerID	650490
playerName	Yandy Díaz
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	TB
teamID	27

Jesse Scholtens (669947) · PITCHER · Starter · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 5

All-history rows before 20260508: 5

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.600	1.000	-1.600	-1.000
predicted_IP	4.100	4.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.300	3.000	-0.200	1.100
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	-	Pitching_SO	3.400	3.000	0.600	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 5

Reference playing time: 4.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	22.200	8.000	20.000	6.000	17.000	2.000	3.1765	1.1471	0.3529	0.8823	0.2647	0.7500	0.0882
last_10	0.35	5	22.200	8.000	20.000	6.000	17.000	2.000	3.1765	1.1471	0.3529	0.8823	0.2647	0.7500	0.0882
season	0.20	5	22.200	8.000	20.000	6.000	17.000	2.000	3.1765	1.1471	0.3529	0.8823	0.2647	0.7500	0.0882

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.2350
predicted_ER	1.6470
predicted_ERA	3.1765
predicted_H	4.1180
predicted_HR	0.4120
predicted_IP	4.2000
predicted_SO	3.5000
predicted_WHIP	1.1471

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	1.2350	1.1528	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	1.6470	1.0706	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.1765	3.1765	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	4.1180	3.3767	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.4120	0.6178	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.1000	4.2000	4.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	4.0000	3.5000	3.6750	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1471	1.1471	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	5
Season rows before report date	5
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	5
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.1
H	2
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	4
HR	1
BF	18
Pitches	71

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	12
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	3.18
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	3.0
Pitching_Pitches	47
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	37
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260502_SF@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	669947
playerID	669947
playerName	Jesse Scholtens
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TB
teamID	27

Bryan Baker (641329) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 16

All-history rows before 20260508: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.250	0.000	1.750	2.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.887	1.000	0.213	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	0.000	2.000	0.000	5.000	0.000	0.0000	0.4615	0.0000	0.4615	0.0000	1.1539	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.200	1.000	4.000	2.000	9.000	0.000	1.0385	0.6923	0.1154	0.4615	0.2308	1.0385	0.0000
season	0.20	16	14.200	4.000	9.000	3.000	16.000	1.000	2.4545	0.8182	0.2727	0.6136	0.2046	1.0909	0.0682

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1220
predicted_ER	0.0950
predicted_ERA	0.8544
predicted_H	0.4920
predicted_HR	0.0140
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1010
predicted_WHIP	0.6136

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.1220	0.4293	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.0950	0.7617	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.8544	0.8544	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	0.4920	1.3698	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0140	0.3591	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.0000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1010	1.0656	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.6136	0.6136	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	3
R	2
ER	2
BB	1
SO	1
HR	1
BF	7
Pitches	30

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.45
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_TOR@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	641329
playerID	641329
playerName	Bryan Baker
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TB
teamID	27

Cole Sulser (642121) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 16

All-history rows before 20260508: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.219	1.000	-0.119	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.000	0.0000	0.4000	0.0000	0.2000	0.2000	1.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	11.200	0.000	6.000	3.000	9.000	0.000	0.0000	0.7714	0.0000	0.5143	0.2571	0.7714	0.0000
season	0.20	16	20.200	6.000	19.000	8.000	16.000	1.000	2.6129	1.3065	0.2903	0.9194	0.3871	0.7742	0.0484

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3050
predicted_ER	0.0690
predicted_ERA	0.5226
predicted_H	0.5370
predicted_HR	0.0110
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.0350
predicted_WHIP	0.7113

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3050	0.1983	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.0690	0.0449	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.5226	0.5226	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.5370	0.3491	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0110	0.0072	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0350	1.0227	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.7113	0.7113	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	10

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.61
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	642121
playerID	642121
playerName	Cole Sulser
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TB
teamID	27

Ian Seymour (693855) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 16

All-history rows before 20260508: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.625	0.000	-0.625	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.944	1.000	0.156	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.250	1.000	-0.250	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	0.000	0.0000	1.2000	0.0000	0.6000	0.6000	0.8000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	11.000	4.000	9.000	7.000	12.000	1.000	3.2727	1.4545	0.3636	0.8182	0.6364	1.0909	0.0909
season	0.20	15	17.200	5.000	12.000	7.000	20.000	1.000	2.5472	1.0755	0.2830	0.6793	0.3962	1.1321	0.0566

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6100
predicted_ER	0.1960
predicted_ERA	1.6549
predicted_H	0.7380
predicted_HR	0.0460
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0330
predicted_WHIP	1.2642

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.6100	0.3965	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1960	0.1274	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.6549	1.6549	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7380	0.4797	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0460	0.0299	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.0000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0330	1.0214	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2642	1.2642	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.09
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_TOR@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	693855
playerID	693855
playerName	Ian Seymour
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TB
teamID	27

Garrett Cleavinger (664076) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 6

All-history rows before 20260508: 6

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.500	1.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.700	1.000	-0.500	-0.800
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	1.000	4.000	4.000	6.000	2.0769	1.8462	0.2308	0.9231	0.9231	1.3846
last_10	0.35	6	4.200	3.000	6.000	4.000	6.000	5.7857	2.1429	0.6429	1.2857	0.8571	1.2857
season	0.20	6	4.200	3.000	6.000	4.000	6.000	5.7857	2.1429	0.6429	1.2857	0.8571	1.2857

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.7240
predicted_ER	0.3740
predicted_ERA	4.1167
predicted_H	0.9170
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	1.0860
predicted_WHIP	2.0094

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.7240	0.8206	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.3740	0.5931	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.1167	4.1167	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.9170	0.9461	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.0860	0.7059	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	2.0094	2.0094	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	22

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	5.79
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	664076
playerID	664076
playerName	Garrett Cleavinger
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TB
teamID	27

Home Team: BOS

Willson Contreras (575929) · BATTER · 1B · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 37

All-history rows before 20260508: 37

System season_avg: 0.2630

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2632

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.108	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.108	0.000	-0.108	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.595	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.595	4.000	0.405	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.272	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.263	0.250	0.237	0.250
predicted_BB	0.486	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.486	0.000	-0.486	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.940	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.946	1.000	1.054	1.000
predicted_HR	0.190	2.000	2.000	Hitting_HR	0.216	0.000	1.784	2.000
predicted_OBP	0.373	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.373	0.250	0.127	0.250
predicted_R	0.514	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.514	0.000	0.486	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	3.000	3.000	Hitting_RBI	0.622	0.000	2.378	3.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.483	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SLG	0.474	0.250	1.526	1.750
predicted_SO	1.243	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.243	1.000	-1.243	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.108	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.595	-
predicted_AVG	0.272	-
predicted_BB	0.486	-
predicted_H	0.940	-
predicted_HR	0.190	-
predicted_OBP	0.373	-
predicted_R	0.514	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.483	-
predicted_SO	1.243	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.155	0.048
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.702	0.107
predicted_AVG	0.272	0.000
predicted_BB	0.557	0.072
predicted_H	0.995	0.055
predicted_HBP	0.109	-
predicted_HR	0.199	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.373	-0.000
predicted_R	0.500	-0.014
predicted_RBI	0.434	0.024
predicted_SLG	0.483	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.337	0.094

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.70), rates preserved: AVG=0.269 HR/AB=0.054

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	2.000	2.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	3.000	3.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	8.000	0.2632	0.3750	0.4737	0.2632	0.0526	0.1053	0.2105	0.4210
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	11.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	6.000	4.000	12.000	0.2895	0.3696	0.5000	0.2895	0.0526	0.1053	0.1053	0.3158
season	0.20	37	-	133.000	35.000	4.000	8.000	23.000	19.000	18.000	46.000	0.2632	0.3727	0.4737	0.2632	0.0602	0.1729	0.1353	0.3459

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1810
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7590
predicted_AVG	0.2724
predicted_BB	0.5960
predicted_H	1.0240
predicted_HBP	0.1090
predicted_HR	0.2030
predicted_OBP	0.3726
predicted_R	0.4930
predicted_RBI	0.4470
predicted_SLG	0.4829
predicted_SO	1.3880

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1080	0.1810	0.1555	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5950	3.7590	3.7016	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2720	0.2724	0.2723	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4860	0.5960	0.5575	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9400	1.0240	0.9946	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1090	0.1090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1900	0.2030	0.1985	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3730	0.3726	0.3727	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5140	0.4930	0.5004	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.4470	0.4341	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4830	0.4829	0.4829	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2430	1.3880	1.3373	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	2
R	1
RBI	3
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.263

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260507_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	575929
playerID	575929
playerName	Willson Contreras
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	BOS
teamID	4

Wilyer Abreu (677800) · BATTER · RF · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 37

All-history rows before 20260508: 37

System season_avg: 0.3000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.162	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.162	0.000	-0.162	0.000
predicted_3B	0.027	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_AB	3.784	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.784	3.000	0.216	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.285	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.300	0.333	0.200	0.167
predicted_BB	0.486	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.486	0.000	-0.486	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_H	1.050	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	1.135	1.000	0.865	1.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.135	0.000	-0.135	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.396	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.377	0.250	0.123	0.250
predicted_R	0.486	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.486	0.000	0.514	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.530	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.459	1.000	-0.459	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.081	1.000	-0.081	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.428	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.464	0.333	0.036	0.167
predicted_SO	0.838	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.838	0.000	-0.838	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.162	-
predicted_3B	0.027	-
predicted_AB	3.784	-
predicted_AVG	0.285	-
predicted_BB	0.486	-
predicted_H	1.050	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.396	-
predicted_R	0.486	-
predicted_RBI	0.530	-
predicted_SLG	0.428	-
predicted_SO	0.838	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.101	-0.061
predicted_3B	0.013	-0.014
predicted_AB	3.747	-0.037
predicted_AVG	0.285	0.000
predicted_BB	0.674	0.188
predicted_H	1.058	0.008
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.151	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.396	0.000
predicted_R	0.475	-0.011
predicted_RBI	0.534	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.428	0.000
predicted_SO	1.176	0.338

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.78), rates preserved: AVG=0.280 HR/AB=0.040

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	9.000	0.2632	0.3750	0.4211	0.2632	0.0526	0.1579	0.2105	0.4737
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	11.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	9.000	11.000	0.3056	0.4348	0.4167	0.3056	0.0278	0.1389	0.2500	0.3056
season	0.20	37	-	140.000	42.000	6.000	1.000	5.000	17.000	18.000	18.000	31.000	0.3000	0.3774	0.4643	0.3000	0.0357	0.1214	0.1286	0.2214

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0680
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.7270
predicted_AVG	0.2854
predicted_BB	0.7750
predicted_H	1.0630
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1510
predicted_OBP	0.3964
predicted_R	0.4690
predicted_RBI	0.5360
predicted_SLG	0.4282
predicted_SO	1.3580

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1620	0.0680	0.1009	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0270	0.0050	0.0127	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7840	3.7270	3.7470	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2850	0.2854	0.2853	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4860	0.7750	0.6739	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0500	1.0630	1.0584	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1510	0.1507	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3960	0.3964	0.3963	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4860	0.4690	0.4749	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5300	0.5360	0.5339	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4280	0.4282	0.4281	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8380	1.3580	1.1760	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.3

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260507_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	677800
playerID	677800
playerName	Wilyer Abreu
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	BOS
teamID	4

Marcelo Mayer (691785) · BATTER · 2B · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 28

All-history rows before 20260508: 28

System season_avg: 0.2310

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2308

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.179	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.179	0.000	-0.179	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.250	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.250	4.000	0.750	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.253	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.231	0.000	-0.231	0.000
predicted_BB	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.740	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.750	0.000	-0.750	0.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.036	0.000	-0.036	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.321	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.304	0.000	-0.304	0.000
predicted_R	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.250	1.000	-0.250	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.319	0.000	-0.319	0.000
predicted_SO	0.679	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.679	0.000	0.321	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.179	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.250	-
predicted_AVG	0.253	-
predicted_BB	0.286	-
predicted_H	0.740	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.321	-
predicted_R	0.250	-
predicted_RBI	0.240	-
predicted_SLG	0.280	-
predicted_SO	0.679	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.110	-0.069
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.432	0.182
predicted_AVG	0.253	0.000
predicted_BB	0.242	-0.044
predicted_H	0.840	0.100
predicted_HBP	0.138	-
predicted_HR	0.009	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.321	0.000
predicted_R	0.305	0.055
predicted_RBI	0.271	0.031
predicted_SLG	0.280	0.000
predicted_SO	0.834	0.155

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.43), rates preserved: AVG=0.245 HR/AB=0.003

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	6.000	0.2222	0.3000	0.2222	0.2222	0.0000	0.0556	0.0556	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	11.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	3.000	2.000	7.000	0.3056	0.3590	0.3333	0.3056	0.0000	0.1111	0.0556	0.1944
season	0.20	28	-	91.000	21.000	5.000	1.000	8.000	7.000	8.000	19.000	0.2308	0.3039	0.3187	0.2308	0.0110	0.0879	0.0879	0.2088

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0730
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.5300
predicted_AVG	0.2531
predicted_BB	0.2190
predicted_H	0.8930
predicted_HBP	0.1380
predicted_HR	0.0080
predicted_OBP	0.3214
predicted_R	0.3340
predicted_RBI	0.2880
predicted_SLG	0.2804
predicted_SO	0.9170

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1790	0.0730	0.1101	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2500	3.5300	3.4320	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2530	0.2531	0.2531	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2860	0.2190	0.2424	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7400	0.8930	0.8395	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1380	0.1380	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0080	0.0087	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3210	0.3214	0.3213	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2500	0.3340	0.3046	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2400	0.2880	0.2712	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2800	0.2804	0.2803	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6790	0.9170	0.8337	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.231

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260507_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	691785
playerID	691785
playerName	Marcelo Mayer
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	BOS
teamID	4

Trevor Story (596115) · BATTER · SS · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 36

All-history rows before 20260508: 36

System season_avg: 0.2040

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2041

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.083	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	4.083	4.000	-1.083	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.202	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.204	0.250	-0.204	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.194	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.194	0.000	0.806	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.780	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.833	1.000	-0.833	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.238	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.242	0.250	0.008	0.000
predicted_R	0.389	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.389	1.000	-0.389	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.210	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.111	1.000	-0.111	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.226	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.286	0.250	-0.286	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.361	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.361	2.000	0.639	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.083	-
predicted_AVG	0.202	-
predicted_BB	0.194	-
predicted_H	0.780	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.238	-
predicted_R	0.389	-
predicted_RBI	0.210	-
predicted_SLG	0.226	-
predicted_SO	1.361	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.103	-0.064
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.144	0.061
predicted_AVG	0.202	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.117	-0.077
predicted_H	0.820	0.040
predicted_HBP	0.130	-
predicted_HR	0.011	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.238	0.000
predicted_R	0.475	0.086
predicted_RBI	0.221	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.226	0.000
predicted_SO	1.498	0.137

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.14), rates preserved: AVG=0.198 HR/AB=0.003

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 4.083

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	0.000	9.000	0.1905	0.2273	0.1905	0.1905	0.0000	0.0476	0.0000	0.4286
last_10	0.35	10	-	42.000	9.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	1.000	14.000	0.2143	0.2500	0.2381	0.2143	0.0000	0.0238	0.0238	0.3333
season	0.20	36	-	147.000	30.000	6.000	2.000	18.000	14.000	7.000	49.000	0.2041	0.2420	0.2857	0.2041	0.0136	0.1225	0.0476	0.3333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0690
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.1770
predicted_AVG	0.2015
predicted_BB	0.0750
predicted_H	0.8420
predicted_HBP	0.1300
predicted_HR	0.0110
predicted_OBP	0.2382
predicted_R	0.5220
predicted_RBI	0.2270
predicted_SLG	0.2262
predicted_SO	1.5710

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.0690	0.1033	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0830	4.1770	4.1441	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2020	0.2015	0.2017	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1940	0.0750	0.1167	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7800	0.8420	0.8203	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1300	0.1300	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0110	0.0106	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2380	0.2382	0.2381	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3890	0.5220	0.4755	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2100	0.2270	0.2211	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2260	0.2262	0.2261	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3610	1.5710	1.4975	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.204

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260507_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	596115
playerID	596115
playerName	Trevor Story
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	BOS
teamID	4

Jarren Duran (680776) · BATTER · LF · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 31

All-history rows before 20260508: 31

System season_avg: 0.1950

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1953

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.194	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.194	1.000	0.806	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.129	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.129	4.000	-0.129	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.227	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.195	0.250	0.055	0.000
predicted_BB	0.323	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.323	0.000	-0.323	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.930	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.806	1.000	0.194	0.000
predicted_HR	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.129	0.000	-0.129	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.291	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.259	0.250	-0.009	0.000
predicted_R	0.613	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.613	1.000	0.387	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.690	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.581	0.000	-0.581	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.226	0.000	-0.226	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.480	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.336	0.500	0.164	0.000
predicted_SO	1.161	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.161	1.000	-1.161	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.194	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.129	-
predicted_AVG	0.227	-
predicted_BB	0.323	-
predicted_H	0.930	-
predicted_HR	0.290	-
predicted_OBP	0.291	-
predicted_R	0.613	-
predicted_RBI	0.690	-
predicted_SLG	0.480	-
predicted_SO	1.161	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.174	-0.020
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.247	0.118
predicted_AVG	0.227	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.363	0.040
predicted_H	0.961	0.031
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.302	0.012
predicted_OBP	0.291	0.000
predicted_R	0.607	-0.006
predicted_RBI	0.710	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.480	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.376	0.215

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.25), rates preserved: AVG=0.226 HR/AB=0.071

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 4.129

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	22.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	2.000	9.000	0.2727	0.3333	0.5909	0.2727	0.0909	0.1818	0.0909	0.4091
last_10	0.35	10	-	43.000	8.000	1.000	3.000	7.000	6.000	4.000	13.000	0.1860	0.2553	0.4186	0.1860	0.0698	0.1628	0.0930	0.3023
season	0.20	31	-	128.000	25.000	6.000	4.000	18.000	19.000	10.000	36.000	0.1953	0.2590	0.3359	0.1953	0.0312	0.1406	0.0781	0.2812

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1640
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.3110
predicted_AVG	0.2269
predicted_BB	0.3840
predicted_H	0.9780
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.3090
predicted_OBP	0.2911
predicted_R	0.6030
predicted_RBI	0.7200
predicted_SLG	0.4796
predicted_SO	1.4920

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1940	0.1640	0.1745	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1290	4.3110	4.2473	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2270	0.2269	0.2269	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3230	0.3840	0.3627	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9300	0.9780	0.9612	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2900	0.3090	0.3024	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2910	0.2911	0.2911	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6130	0.6030	0.6065	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6900	0.7200	0.7095	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4800	0.4796	0.4797	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1610	1.4920	1.3761	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.195

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260507_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	680776
playerID	680776
playerName	Jarren Duran
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	BOS
teamID	4

Caleb Durbin (702332) · BATTER · 3B · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 34

All-history rows before 20260508: 34

System season_avg: 0.1830

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1833

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.206	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.206	0.000	-0.206	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.529	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.529	3.000	-0.529	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.209	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.183	0.333	-0.183	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.324	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.324	0.000	0.676	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_H	0.610	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.647	1.000	-0.647	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.257	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.263	0.333	-0.013	-0.083
predicted_R	0.412	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.412	0.000	-0.412	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.382	1.000	-0.382	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.259	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.267	0.333	-0.267	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.529	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.529	0.000	1.471	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.206	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.529	-
predicted_AVG	0.209	-
predicted_BB	0.324	-
predicted_H	0.610	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.257	-
predicted_R	0.412	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.259	-
predicted_SO	0.529	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.180	-0.026
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.625	0.096
predicted_AVG	0.209	0.000
predicted_BB	0.260	-0.064
predicted_H	0.713	0.103
predicted_HBP	0.012	-
predicted_HR	0.004	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.257	0.000
predicted_R	0.326	-0.086
predicted_RBI	0.448	0.068
predicted_SLG	0.259	0.000
predicted_SO	0.463	-0.066

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.62), rates preserved: AVG=0.197 HR/AB=0.001

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	0.2105	0.2500	0.2632	0.2105	0.0000	0.1579	0.0526	0.1053
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	8.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	3.000	2.000	4.000	0.2222	0.2632	0.2500	0.2222	0.0000	0.1111	0.0556	0.1111
season	0.20	34	-	120.000	22.000	7.000	1.000	13.000	14.000	11.000	18.000	0.1833	0.2632	0.2667	0.1833	0.0083	0.1083	0.0917	0.1500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1660
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.6760
predicted_AVG	0.2092
predicted_BB	0.2260
predicted_H	0.7690
predicted_HBP	0.0120
predicted_HR	0.0060
predicted_OBP	0.2573
predicted_R	0.2800
predicted_RBI	0.4840
predicted_SLG	0.2593
predicted_SO	0.4270

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2060	0.1660	0.1800	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5290	3.6760	3.6246	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2090	0.2092	0.2091	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3240	0.2260	0.2603	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6100	0.7690	0.7134	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0120	0.0120	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0060	0.0039	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2570	0.2573	0.2572	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4120	0.2800	0.3262	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.4840	0.4476	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2590	0.2593	0.2592	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5290	0.4270	0.4627	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.183

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260507_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	702332
playerID	702332
playerName	Caleb Durbin
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	BOS
teamID	4

Masataka Yoshida (807799) · BATTER · DH · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 15

All-history rows before 20260508: 15

System season_avg: 0.2690

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2692

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.467	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.467	3.000	-0.467	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.246	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.269	0.000	-0.269	0.000
predicted_BB	0.600	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.600	1.000	0.400	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.830	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.933	0.000	-0.933	0.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.307	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.387	0.250	-0.137	0.000
predicted_R	0.467	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.467	1.000	-0.467	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.267	0.000	-0.267	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.267	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.327	0.000	-0.327	0.000
predicted_SO	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.467	-
predicted_AVG	0.246	-
predicted_BB	0.600	-
predicted_H	0.830	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.307	-
predicted_R	0.467	-
predicted_RBI	0.080	-
predicted_SLG	0.267	-
predicted_SO	0.400	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.119	-0.081
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.581	0.114
predicted_AVG	0.246	0.000
predicted_BB	0.395	-0.205
predicted_H	0.873	0.043
predicted_HBP	0.048	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.307	-0.000
predicted_R	0.477	0.010
predicted_RBI	0.086	0.006
predicted_SLG	0.267	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.422	0.022

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.58), rates preserved: AVG=0.244 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	0.2222	0.2632	0.2222	0.2222	0.0000	0.0556	0.1111
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	10.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	2.000	5.000	0.2632	0.3171	0.2895	0.2632	0.0263	0.0526	0.1316
season	0.20	15	-	52.000	14.000	3.000	4.000	7.000	9.000	6.000	0.2692	0.3871	0.3269	0.2692	0.0769	0.1731	0.1154

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0760
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.6430
predicted_AVG	0.2460
predicted_BB	0.2840
predicted_H	0.8960
predicted_HBP	0.0480
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.3068
predicted_R	0.4820
predicted_RBI	0.0900
predicted_SLG	0.2667
predicted_SO	0.4340

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.0760	0.1194	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4670	3.6430	3.5814	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2460	0.2460	0.2460	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6000	0.2840	0.3946	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8300	0.8960	0.8729	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0480	0.0480	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3070	0.3068	0.3069	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4670	0.4820	0.4768	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0800	0.0900	0.0865	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2670	0.2667	0.2668	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4000	0.4340	0.4221	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.269

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260507_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	807799
playerID	807799
playerName	Masataka Yoshida
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	BOS
teamID	4

Ceddanne Rafaela (678882) · BATTER · CF · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 33

All-history rows before 20260508: 33

System season_avg: 0.2690

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2689

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.121	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.121	0.000	-0.121	0.000
predicted_3B	0.061	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.061	0.000	-0.061	0.000
predicted_AB	3.606	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.606	4.000	0.394	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.287	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.269	0.250	-0.019	0.000
predicted_BB	0.242	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.242	0.000	-0.242	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_H	0.930	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.970	1.000	0.030	0.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.061	0.000	-0.061	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.361	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.341	0.250	-0.091	0.000
predicted_R	0.455	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.455	0.000	-0.455	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.610	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.394	1.000	-0.394	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.061	0.000	-0.061	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.432	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.387	0.250	-0.137	0.000
predicted_SO	0.909	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.909	1.000	-0.909	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.121	-
predicted_3B	0.061	-
predicted_AB	3.606	-
predicted_AVG	0.287	-
predicted_BB	0.242	-
predicted_H	0.930	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.361	-
predicted_R	0.455	-
predicted_RBI	0.610	-
predicted_SLG	0.432	-
predicted_SO	0.909	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.082	-0.039
predicted_3B	0.052	-0.009
predicted_AB	3.788	0.182
predicted_AVG	0.287	0.000
predicted_BB	0.278	0.036
predicted_H	1.052	0.122
predicted_HBP	0.155	-
predicted_HR	0.126	0.016
predicted_OBP	0.361	-0.000
predicted_R	0.484	0.029
predicted_RBI	0.689	0.079
predicted_SLG	0.432	0.000
predicted_SO	0.922	0.013

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.278 HR/AB=0.033

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	2.000	4.000	0.3000	0.3913	0.4500	0.3000	0.0500	0.2500	0.1000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	11.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	4.000	2.000	11.000	0.2821	0.3333	0.4359	0.2821	0.0256	0.1538	0.0513	0.2821
season	0.20	33	-	119.000	32.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	13.000	15.000	8.000	30.000	0.2689	0.3409	0.3866	0.2689	0.0168	0.1092	0.0672	0.2521

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0610
predicted_3B	0.0480
predicted_AB	3.8860
predicted_AVG	0.2875
predicted_BB	0.2970
predicted_H	1.1170
predicted_HBP	0.1550
predicted_HR	0.1350
predicted_OBP	0.3609
predicted_R	0.5000
predicted_RBI	0.7310
predicted_SLG	0.4324
predicted_SO	0.9290

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1210	0.0610	0.0820	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0610	0.0480	0.0525	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6060	3.8860	3.7880	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2870	0.2875	0.2873	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2420	0.2970	0.2777	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9300	1.1170	1.0515	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1550	0.1550	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1350	0.1263	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3610	0.3609	0.3609	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4550	0.5000	0.4843	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6100	0.7310	0.6886	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4320	0.4324	0.4323	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9090	0.9290	0.9220	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.269

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260507_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	678882
playerID	678882
playerName	Ceddanne Rafaela
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	BOS
teamID	4

Carlos Narváez (665966) · BATTER · C · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 23

All-history rows before 20260508: 23

System season_avg: 0.2130

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2133

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.130	0.000	-0.130	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.261	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.261	2.000	0.739	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.154	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.213	0.000	-0.213	0.000
predicted_BB	0.217	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.217	1.000	-0.217	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.420	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.696	0.000	-0.696	0.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.087	0.000	-0.087	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.296	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.272	0.500	-0.272	-0.500
predicted_R	0.391	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.391	1.000	-0.391	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.130	0.000	-0.130	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_SO	0.957	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.957	0.000	1.043	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.130	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.261	-
predicted_AVG	0.154	-
predicted_BB	0.217	-
predicted_H	0.420	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.296	-
predicted_R	0.391	-
predicted_RBI	0.110	-
predicted_SLG	0.300	-
predicted_SO	0.957	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.168	0.038
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.089	-0.172
predicted_AVG	0.154	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.378	0.161
predicted_H	0.447	0.027
predicted_HBP	0.138	-
predicted_HR	0.083	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.296	0.000
predicted_R	0.503	0.112
predicted_RBI	0.120	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.300	0.000
predicted_SO	0.876	-0.081

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.26), rates preserved: AVG=0.137 HR/AB=0.025

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 23

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	0.0714	0.2778	0.1429	0.0714	0.0000	0.0000	0.2143	0.2857
last_10	0.35	10	-	31.000	7.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	6.000	4.000	8.000	0.2258	0.3333	0.4839	0.2258	0.0645	0.0968	0.1290	0.2581
season	0.20	23	-	75.000	16.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	9.000	5.000	22.000	0.2133	0.2716	0.3333	0.2133	0.0267	0.0400	0.0667	0.2933

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1880
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.9970
predicted_AVG	0.1538
predicted_BB	0.4640
predicted_H	0.4610
predicted_HBP	0.1380
predicted_HR	0.0840
predicted_OBP	0.2960
predicted_R	0.5640
predicted_RBI	0.1250
predicted_SLG	0.3003
predicted_SO	0.8320

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1300	0.1880	0.1677	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2610	2.9970	3.0894	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1540	0.1538	0.1539	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2170	0.4640	0.3776	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4200	0.4610	0.4466	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1380	0.1380	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0840	0.0826	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2960	0.2960	0.2960	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3910	0.5640	0.5034	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1100	0.1250	0.1197	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3000	0.3003	0.3002	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9570	0.8320	0.8757	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	23
Season rows before report date	23
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	23
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.213

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260506_BOS@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	665966
playerID	665966
playerName	Carlos Narváez
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	BOS
teamID	4

Connelly Early (813349) · PITCHER · Starter · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 7

All-history rows before 20260508: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	2.143	5.000	-1.143	-4.000
predicted_IP	3.100	3.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.929	4.000	-1.829	-0.900
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	4.429	3.000	-2.429	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 3.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	26.100	12.000	22.000	11.000	21.000	5.000	4.1013	1.2532	0.4557	0.8354	0.4177	0.7975	0.1899
last_10	0.35	7	35.200	15.000	30.000	17.000	31.000	5.000	3.7850	1.3178	0.4206	0.8411	0.4766	0.8692	0.1402
season	0.20	7	35.200	15.000	30.000	17.000	31.000	5.000	3.7850	1.3178	0.4206	0.8411	0.4766	0.8692	0.1402

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.3180
predicted_ER	2.2470
predicted_ERA	3.9273
predicted_H	4.3190
predicted_HR	0.8370
predicted_IP	5.0000
predicted_SO	4.3100
predicted_WHIP	1.2887

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	2.3180	2.5567	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	2.2470	1.8106	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.9273	3.9273	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	4.3190	3.8573	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.8370	0.8941	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	3.1000	5.0000	4.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	4.3100	3.5015	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2887	1.2887	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	3.1
H	3
R	1
ER	1
BB	3
SO	2
HR	1
BF	18
Pitches	83

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	20
Pitching_ER	5
Pitching_ERA	3.79
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	6
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	4.0
Pitching_Pitches	77
Pitching_R	5
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	50
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260502_HOU@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	813349
playerID	813349
playerName	Connelly Early
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	BOS
teamID	4

Aroldis Chapman (547973) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 12

All-history rows before 20260508: 12

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.083	0.000	1.917	2.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.933	1.000	0.167	0.100
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.167	1.000	1.833	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	0.000	3.000	0.000	7.000	0.0000	0.6429	0.0000	0.6429	0.0000	1.5000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	1.000	7.000	3.000	13.000	0.9310	1.0345	0.1035	0.7241	0.3103	1.3448
season	0.20	12	11.200	1.000	7.000	3.000	14.000	0.7714	0.8571	0.0857	0.6000	0.2571	1.2000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1600
predicted_ER	0.0530
predicted_ERA	0.4801
predicted_H	0.6630
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.3860
predicted_WHIP	0.8228

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1600	0.1040	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.0530	0.7344	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.4801	0.4801	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	0.6630	1.4809	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.0000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	1.3860	1.9509	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.8228	0.8228	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	3
R	2
ER	2
BB	0
SO	3
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	24

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	3
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.77
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_BOS@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	547973
playerID	547973
playerName	Aroldis Chapman
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BOS
teamID	4

Zack Kelly (677161) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 13

All-history rows before 20260508: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.385	0.000	-0.385	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.908	1.000	0.192	0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.923	2.000	-0.923	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	1.000	4.000	5.000	6.000	0.000	1.9286	1.9286	0.2143	0.8571	1.0714	1.2857	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	11.000	4.000	9.000	6.000	11.000	1.000	3.2727	1.3636	0.3636	0.8182	0.5454	1.0000	0.0909
season	0.20	13	13.200	5.000	10.000	6.000	12.000	1.000	3.2927	1.1707	0.3659	0.7317	0.4390	0.8780	0.0732

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.7610
predicted_ER	0.2970
predicted_ERA	2.6719
predicted_H	0.8180
predicted_HR	0.0460
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1040
predicted_WHIP	1.5793

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.7610	0.4947	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2970	0.1930	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.6719	2.6719	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.8180	0.8817	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0460	0.0299	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.0000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.1040	0.7176	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5793	1.5793	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.29
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	25
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_BOS@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	677161
playerID	677161
playerName	Zack Kelly
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BOS
teamID	4

Garrett Whitlock (676477) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 14

All-history rows before 20260508: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.429	2.000	-0.429	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.007	1.000	-0.007	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.214	2.000	-1.214	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	4.000	8.000	1.000	5.000	1.000	6.7500	1.6875	0.7500	1.5000	0.1875	0.9375	0.1875
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	5.000	10.000	2.000	11.000	2.000	4.3548	1.1613	0.4839	0.9677	0.1935	1.0645	0.1935
season	0.20	14	14.100	6.000	13.000	6.000	17.000	2.000	3.7674	1.3256	0.4186	0.9070	0.4186	1.1861	0.1395

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2360
predicted_ER	0.5910
predicted_ERA	5.3152
predicted_H	1.1950
predicted_HR	0.1800
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0320
predicted_WHIP	1.4309

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.2360	0.5034	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5910	0.3841	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.3152	5.3152	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.1950	0.7768	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1800	0.1170	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.0320	0.6708	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4309	1.4309	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	2
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	3.77
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	26
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	15
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_BOS@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	676477
playerID	676477
playerName	Garrett Whitlock
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BOS
teamID	4

Greg Weissert (669711) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 17

All-history rows before 20260508: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.529	1.000	1.471	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.712	0.000	0.288	1.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.059	0.000	-0.059	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	3.000	8.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	5.4000	1.6000	0.6000	1.6000	0.0000	0.6000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	3.000	11.000	2.000	8.000	1.000	2.8929	1.3929	0.3214	1.1786	0.2143	0.8571	0.1071
season	0.20	16	14.200	8.000	17.000	4.000	18.000	4.000	4.9091	1.4318	0.5454	1.1591	0.2727	1.2273	0.2727

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1300
predicted_ER	0.4920
predicted_ERA	4.4243
predicted_H	1.3640
predicted_HR	0.1820
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8150
predicted_WHIP	1.4939

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.1300	0.7845	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.4920	1.0198	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.4243	4.4243	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	1.3640	1.5866	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1820	0.1183	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8150	0.8797	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4939	1.4939	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	2
ER	2
BB	2
SO	1
HR	0
BF	7
Pitches	37

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	5.52
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	6
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	669711
playerID	669711
playerName	Greg Weissert
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BOS
teamID	4

Jovani Morán (663558) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 11

All-history rows before 20260508: 11

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.636	2.000	-0.636	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.700	1.000	-0.700	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.818	3.000	0.182	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 10

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	10.000	4.000	8.000	6.000	8.000	2.000	3.6000	1.4000	0.4000	0.8000	0.6000	0.8000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	20.100	6.000	12.000	11.000	20.000	3.000	2.6557	1.1311	0.2951	0.5902	0.5410	0.9836	0.1475
season	0.20	10	20.100	6.000	12.000	11.000	20.000	3.000	2.6557	1.1311	0.2951	0.5902	0.5410	0.9836	0.1475

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.1350
predicted_ER	0.6850
predicted_ERA	3.0806
predicted_H	1.3690
predicted_HR	0.3420
predicted_IP	2.0000
predicted_SO	1.8020
predicted_WHIP	1.2521

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	1.1350	0.7378	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.6850	0.4453	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.0806	3.0806	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.3690	0.8899	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.3420	0.2223	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	2.0000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.8020	1.8713	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2521	1.2521	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	10
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	8
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	3.10
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	38
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	21
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_BOS@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	663558
playerID	663558
playerName	Jovani Morán
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	BOS
teamID	4

20260508_WAS@MIA

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "confidence": 0.6603524858726488, "home_win_probability": 0.33964751412735117, "away_win_probability": 0.6603524858726488, "predicted_score_text": "WAS 4 - 2 MIA", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to final winner probability with starter-quality caps.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3, "predicted_score_text": "WAS 5 - 3 MIA", "confidence": 0.6603524858726488, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score", "final_prediction_synced": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "WAS 5 - 3 MIA", "winner": "WAS"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "score_text": "WAS 4 - 2 MIA", "winner": "WAS"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": -1, "home_run_delta": -1, "total_run_delta": -2, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"}}

Away Team: WAS

Brady House (691781) · BATTER · 3B · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 29

All-history rows before 20260508: 29

System season_avg: 0.2250

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2250

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.172	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.172	0.000	0.828	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.138	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.138	3.000	-0.138	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.237	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.225	0.333	0.025	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.345	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.345	1.000	0.655	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.950	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.931	1.000	0.069	0.000
predicted_HR	0.330	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.172	0.000	-0.172	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.326	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.285	0.500	0.115	-0.100
predicted_R	0.483	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.483	0.000	0.517	1.000
predicted_RBI	1.240	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.586	0.000	0.414	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.528	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.392	0.333	0.108	0.167
predicted_SO	1.276	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.276	0.000	-1.276	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.172	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.138	-
predicted_AVG	0.237	-
predicted_BB	0.345	-
predicted_H	0.950	-
predicted_HR	0.330	-
predicted_OBP	0.326	-
predicted_R	0.483	-
predicted_RBI	1.240	-
predicted_SLG	0.528	-
predicted_SO	1.276	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.164	-0.008
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.962	-0.175
predicted_AVG	0.237	0.000
predicted_BB	0.457	0.112
predicted_H	0.928	-0.021
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.325	-0.005
predicted_OBP	0.326	0.000
predicted_R	0.522	0.039
predicted_RBI	1.213	-0.027
predicted_SLG	0.528	0.000
predicted_SO	1.117	-0.159

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.14), rates preserved: AVG=0.224 HR/AB=0.078

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 4.138

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	5.000	1.000	2.000	8.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	0.2632	0.3636	0.6316	0.2632	0.1053	0.4210	0.1579	0.2105
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	8.000	1.000	3.000	10.000	5.000	5.000	12.000	0.2105	0.3023	0.4737	0.2105	0.0790	0.2632	0.1316	0.3158
season	0.20	29	-	120.000	27.000	5.000	5.000	17.000	14.000	10.000	37.000	0.2250	0.2846	0.3917	0.2250	0.0417	0.1417	0.0833	0.3083

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1590
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.8680
predicted_AVG	0.2371
predicted_BB	0.5170
predicted_H	0.9170
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.3220
predicted_OBP	0.3263
predicted_R	0.5430
predicted_RBI	1.1990
predicted_SLG	0.5284
predicted_SO	1.0320

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1720	0.1590	0.1636	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1380	3.8680	3.9625	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2370	0.2371	0.2371	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3450	0.5170	0.4568	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9500	0.9170	0.9285	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3300	0.3220	0.3248	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3260	0.3263	0.3262	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4830	0.5430	0.5220	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	1.2400	1.1990	1.2134	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5280	0.5284	0.5283	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2760	1.0320	1.1174	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.225

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260507_MIN@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	691781
playerID	691781
playerName	Brady House
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	WAS
teamID	30

Curtis Mead (678554) · BATTER · 1B · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 15

All-history rows before 20260508: 15

System season_avg: 0.2630

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2632

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.333	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.800	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.800	4.000	1.200	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.245	0.400	0.400	Hitting_AVG	0.263	0.250	0.137	0.150
predicted_BB	0.467	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.467	0.000	-0.467	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.900	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.348	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.354	0.250	0.046	0.150
predicted_R	0.667	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.660	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.733	2.000	-0.733	-2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.133	1.000	-0.133	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.436	0.600	0.600	Hitting_SLG	0.509	0.250	0.091	0.350
predicted_SO	0.667	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.667	0.000	1.333	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.333	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.800	-
predicted_AVG	0.245	-
predicted_BB	0.467	-
predicted_H	0.900	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.348	-
predicted_R	0.667	-
predicted_RBI	0.660	-
predicted_SLG	0.436	-
predicted_SO	0.667	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.368	0.035
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.741	-0.058
predicted_AVG	0.245	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.514	0.047
predicted_H	0.905	0.005
predicted_HBP	0.047	-
predicted_HR	0.108	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.348	0.000
predicted_R	0.616	-0.051
predicted_RBI	0.661	0.001
predicted_SLG	0.436	0.000
predicted_SO	0.632	-0.035

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.80), rates preserved: AVG=0.238 HR/AB=0.028

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	0.2222	0.3333	0.3333	0.2222	0.0000	0.1667	0.1667	0.1667
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	10.000	4.000	2.000	7.000	8.000	5.000	6.000	0.2632	0.3636	0.5263	0.2632	0.0526	0.1842	0.1316	0.1579
season	0.20	15	-	57.000	15.000	5.000	3.000	11.000	10.000	7.000	10.000	0.2632	0.3538	0.5088	0.2632	0.0526	0.1930	0.1228	0.1754

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3870
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7100
predicted_AVG	0.2447
predicted_BB	0.5400
predicted_H	0.9080
predicted_HBP	0.0470
predicted_HR	0.1070
predicted_OBP	0.3480
predicted_R	0.5890
predicted_RBI	0.6610
predicted_SLG	0.4360
predicted_SO	0.6130

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3330	0.3870	0.3681	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8000	3.7100	3.7415	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2450	0.2447	0.2448	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4670	0.5400	0.5145	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9000	0.9080	0.9052	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0470	0.0470	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1070	0.1081	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3480	0.3480	0.3480	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6670	0.5890	0.6163	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6600	0.6610	0.6606	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4360	0.4360	0.4360	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6670	0.6130	0.6319	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.263

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260507_MIN@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	678554
playerID	678554
playerName	Curtis Mead
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	WAS
teamID	30

James Wood (695578) · BATTER · DH · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 38

All-history rows before 20260508: 38

System season_avg: 0.2430

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2431

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.237	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.237	1.000	0.763	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.789	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.789	2.000	0.211	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.286	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.243	0.500	0.257	0.000
predicted_BB	0.895	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.895	2.000	-0.895	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_H	1.080	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.921	1.000	1.079	1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.263	0.000	-0.263	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.402	0.600	0.600	Hitting_OBP	0.394	0.750	0.206	-0.150
predicted_R	0.868	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.868	1.000	-0.868	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.640	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.711	0.000	-0.711	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.184	0.000	-0.184	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.419	0.750	0.750	Hitting_SLG	0.514	1.000	0.236	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.526	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.526	0.000	0.474	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.237	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.789	-
predicted_AVG	0.286	-
predicted_BB	0.895	-
predicted_H	1.080	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.402	-
predicted_R	0.868	-
predicted_RBI	0.640	-
predicted_SLG	0.419	-
predicted_SO	1.526	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.299	0.062
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.691	-0.098
predicted_AVG	0.286	0.000
predicted_BB	0.763	-0.132
predicted_H	1.055	-0.025
predicted_HBP	0.010	-
predicted_HR	0.051	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.402	0.000
predicted_R	0.728	-0.140
predicted_RBI	0.628	-0.012
predicted_SLG	0.419	0.000
predicted_SO	1.447	-0.079

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.278 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	3.000	6.000	0.3333	0.4286	0.4444	0.3333	0.0000	0.1667	0.1667	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	9.000	3.000	0.000	6.000	6.000	7.000	16.000	0.2500	0.3721	0.3333	0.2500	0.0000	0.1667	0.1944	0.4444
season	0.20	38	-	144.000	35.000	9.000	10.000	27.000	33.000	34.000	58.000	0.2431	0.3944	0.5139	0.2431	0.0694	0.1875	0.2361	0.4028

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3330
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.6380
predicted_AVG	0.2861
predicted_BB	0.6920
predicted_H	1.0410
predicted_HBP	0.0100
predicted_HR	0.0510
predicted_OBP	0.4020
predicted_R	0.6520
predicted_RBI	0.6210
predicted_SLG	0.4194
predicted_SO	1.4050

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2370	0.3330	0.2994	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7890	3.6380	3.6909	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2860	0.2861	0.2861	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.8950	0.6920	0.7631	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0800	1.0410	1.0547	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0100	0.0100	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0510	0.0507	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4020	0.4020	0.4020	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8680	0.6520	0.7276	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6400	0.6210	0.6277	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4190	0.4194	0.4193	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.5260	1.4050	1.4474	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.243

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	1
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260507_MIN@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	695578
playerID	695578
playerName	James Wood
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	WAS
teamID	30

Daylen Lile (695734) · BATTER · LF · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 37

All-history rows before 20260508: 37

System season_avg: 0.2450

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2449

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.243	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.243	0.000	-0.243	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.973	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.973	3.000	0.027	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.144	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.245	0.333	-0.245	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.432	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.432	0.000	0.568	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.081	0.000	-0.081	0.000
predicted_H	0.520	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.973	1.000	-0.973	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.081	0.000	-0.081	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.277	0.200	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.323	0.500	-0.123	-0.300
predicted_R	0.649	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.649	0.000	-0.649	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.378	0.000	-0.378	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.054	0.000	-0.054	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.216	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.367	0.333	-0.367	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.838	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.838	1.000	0.162	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.243	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.973	-
predicted_AVG	0.144	-
predicted_BB	0.432	-
predicted_H	0.520	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.277	-
predicted_R	0.649	-
predicted_RBI	0.070	-
predicted_SLG	0.216	-
predicted_SO	0.838	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.221	-0.022
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.662	-0.311
predicted_AVG	0.144	0.000
predicted_BB	0.481	0.049
predicted_H	0.510	-0.010
predicted_HBP	0.137	-
predicted_HR	0.013	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.277	-0.000
predicted_R	0.711	0.062
predicted_RBI	0.068	-0.002
predicted_SLG	0.216	0.000
predicted_SO	0.995	0.157

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.97), rates preserved: AVG=0.128 HR/AB=0.003

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.973

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	3.000	5.000	0.1250	0.3000	0.1875	0.1250	0.0000	0.0000	0.1875	0.3125
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	7.000	4.000	13.000	0.1111	0.2195	0.1667	0.1111	0.0000	0.0000	0.1111	0.3611
season	0.20	37	-	147.000	36.000	9.000	3.000	14.000	24.000	16.000	31.000	0.2449	0.3232	0.3673	0.2449	0.0204	0.0952	0.1088	0.2109

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2090
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.4950
predicted_AVG	0.1441
predicted_BB	0.5070
predicted_H	0.5040
predicted_HBP	0.1370
predicted_HR	0.0140
predicted_OBP	0.2765
predicted_R	0.7450
predicted_RBI	0.0670
predicted_SLG	0.2162
predicted_SO	1.0800

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2430	0.2090	0.2209	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9730	3.4950	3.6623	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1440	0.1441	0.1441	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4320	0.5070	0.4808	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5200	0.5040	0.5096	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1370	0.1370	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0140	0.0126	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2770	0.2765	0.2767	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6490	0.7450	0.7114	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0700	0.0670	0.0680	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2160	0.2162	0.2161	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8380	1.0800	0.9953	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.245

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260507_MIN@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	695734
playerID	695734
playerName	Daylen Lile
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	WAS
teamID	30

Jacob Young (696285) · BATTER · CF · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 32

All-history rows before 20260508: 32

System season_avg: 0.2300

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2295

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.812	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.812	3.000	0.188	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.212	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.230	0.333	0.020	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.156	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.156	0.000	-0.156	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.031	0.000	-0.031	0.000
predicted_H	0.770	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.875	1.000	0.125	0.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.251	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.271	0.500	0.129	-0.100
predicted_R	0.469	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.469	2.000	0.531	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.190	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.438	0.000	0.562	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.031	0.000	-0.031	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.237	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.311	0.333	-0.061	-0.083
predicted_SO	0.781	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.781	0.000	-0.781	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.812	-
predicted_AVG	0.212	-
predicted_BB	0.156	-
predicted_H	0.770	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.251	-
predicted_R	0.469	-
predicted_RBI	0.190	-
predicted_SLG	0.237	-
predicted_SO	0.781	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.084	-0.041
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.841	0.029
predicted_AVG	0.212	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.099	-0.057
predicted_H	0.800	0.030
predicted_HBP	0.136	-
predicted_HR	0.012	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.251	0.000
predicted_R	0.570	0.101
predicted_RBI	0.195	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.237	0.000
predicted_SO	0.895	0.114

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.84), rates preserved: AVG=0.208 HR/AB=0.003

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.812

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	0.000	5.000	0.2000	0.2381	0.2000	0.2000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	8.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	5.000	1.000	10.000	0.2162	0.2564	0.2432	0.2162	0.0000	0.0811	0.0270	0.2703
season	0.20	32	-	122.000	28.000	4.000	2.000	14.000	15.000	5.000	25.000	0.2295	0.2713	0.3115	0.2295	0.0164	0.1148	0.0410	0.2049

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0620
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.8570
predicted_AVG	0.2116
predicted_BB	0.0680
predicted_H	0.8160
predicted_HBP	0.1360
predicted_HR	0.0130
predicted_OBP	0.2511
predicted_R	0.6240
predicted_RBI	0.1980
predicted_SLG	0.2374
predicted_SO	0.9570

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1250	0.0620	0.0840	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8120	3.8570	3.8412	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2120	0.2116	0.2117	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1560	0.0680	0.0988	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7700	0.8160	0.7999	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1360	0.1360	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0130	0.0119	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2510	0.2511	0.2511	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4690	0.6240	0.5697	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1900	0.1980	0.1952	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2370	0.2374	0.2373	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7810	0.9570	0.8954	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	1
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260507_MIN@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	696285
playerID	696285
playerName	Jacob Young
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	WAS
teamID	30

Keibert Ruiz (660688) · BATTER · C · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 20

All-history rows before 20260508: 20

System season_avg: 0.2120

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2121

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.350	2.000	-0.350	-2.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.300	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.300	4.000	0.700	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.254	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.212	0.750	-0.212	-0.750
predicted_BB	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.690	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.700	3.000	-0.700	-3.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.100	1.000	-0.100	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.265	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.232	0.750	-0.232	-0.750
predicted_R	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.350	3.000	-0.350	-3.000
predicted_RBI	0.490	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.550	4.000	-0.550	-4.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.517	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.409	2.000	-0.409	-2.000
predicted_SO	0.600	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.600	1.000	-0.600	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.350	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.300	-
predicted_AVG	0.254	-
predicted_BB	0.050	-
predicted_H	0.690	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.265	-
predicted_R	0.350	-
predicted_RBI	0.490	-
predicted_SLG	0.517	-
predicted_SO	0.600	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.455	0.105
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.469	0.169
predicted_AVG	0.254	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.025	-0.025
predicted_H	0.828	0.138
predicted_HBP	0.047	-
predicted_HR	0.131	0.021
predicted_OBP	0.265	-0.000
predicted_R	0.431	0.081
predicted_RBI	0.587	0.097
predicted_SLG	0.517	0.000
predicted_SO	0.759	0.159

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.47), rates preserved: AVG=0.239 HR/AB=0.038

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=20.0, BvP AVG=0.300)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	5.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	0.000	5.000	0.2632	0.2632	0.5789	0.2632	0.0526	0.2105	0.0000	0.2632
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	9.000	5.000	1.000	5.000	4.000	0.000	8.000	0.2647	0.2857	0.5000	0.2647	0.0294	0.1471	0.0000	0.2353
season	0.20	20	-	66.000	14.000	7.000	2.000	11.000	7.000	1.000	12.000	0.2121	0.2319	0.4091	0.2121	0.0303	0.1667	0.0152	0.1818

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.5120
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.5600
predicted_AVG	0.2535
predicted_BB	0.0110
predicted_H	0.9020
predicted_HBP	0.0470
predicted_HR	0.1430
predicted_OBP	0.2648
predicted_R	0.4750
predicted_RBI	0.6390
predicted_SLG	0.5173
predicted_SO	0.8440

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3500	0.5120	0.4553	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3000	3.5600	3.4690	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2540	0.2535	0.2537	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0500	0.0110	0.0246	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6900	0.9020	0.8278	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0470	0.0470	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1430	0.1314	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2650	0.2648	0.2649	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3500	0.4750	0.4312	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4900	0.6390	0.5868	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5170	0.5173	0.5172	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6000	0.8440	0.7586	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.212

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	2
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.75
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	3
Hitting_RBI	4
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	8
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260507_MIN@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	660688
playerID	660688
playerName	Keibert Ruiz
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	WAS
teamID	30

CJ Abrams (682928) · BATTER · SS · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 36

All-history rows before 20260508: 36

System season_avg: 0.2920

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2923

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.611	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.611	4.000	0.389	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.307	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.292	0.000	-0.042	0.250
predicted_BB	0.472	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.472	0.000	0.528	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_H	1.070	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.056	0.000	-0.056	1.000
predicted_HR	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.362	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.394	0.000	0.006	0.400
predicted_R	0.583	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.583	0.000	-0.583	0.000
predicted_RBI	1.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.917	0.000	-0.917	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.194	0.000	-0.194	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.555	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.546	0.000	-0.296	0.250
predicted_SO	0.750	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.750	1.000	-0.750	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.611	-
predicted_AVG	0.307	-
predicted_BB	0.472	-
predicted_H	1.070	-
predicted_HR	0.190	-
predicted_OBP	0.362	-
predicted_R	0.583	-
predicted_RBI	1.150	-
predicted_SLG	0.555	-
predicted_SO	0.750	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.263	0.096
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.745	0.134
predicted_AVG	0.307	0.000
predicted_BB	0.380	-0.092
predicted_H	1.136	0.066
predicted_HBP	0.035	-
predicted_HR	0.204	0.014
predicted_OBP	0.362	0.000
predicted_R	0.649	0.066
predicted_RBI	1.224	0.074
predicted_SLG	0.555	0.000
predicted_SO	0.777	0.027

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.74), rates preserved: AVG=0.303 HR/AB=0.054

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=13.0, BvP AVG=0.231)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	7.000	4.000	1.000	4.000	0.3000	0.3333	0.5500	0.3000	0.0500	0.3500	0.0500	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	12.000	3.000	2.000	13.000	6.000	4.000	8.000	0.3243	0.3810	0.5676	0.3243	0.0541	0.3513	0.1081	0.2162
season	0.20	36	-	130.000	38.000	6.000	9.000	33.000	21.000	17.000	27.000	0.2923	0.3935	0.5462	0.2923	0.0692	0.2539	0.1308	0.2077

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3150
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.8170
predicted_AVG	0.3070
predicted_BB	0.3300
predicted_H	1.1720
predicted_HBP	0.0350
predicted_HR	0.2110
predicted_OBP	0.3620
predicted_R	0.6840
predicted_RBI	1.2640
predicted_SLG	0.5554
predicted_SO	0.7910

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.3150	0.2632	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6110	3.8170	3.7449	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3070	0.3070	0.3070	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4720	0.3300	0.3797	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0700	1.1720	1.1363	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0350	0.0350	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1900	0.2110	0.2036	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3620	0.3620	0.3620	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5830	0.6840	0.6487	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	1.1500	1.2640	1.2241	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5550	0.5554	0.5553	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7500	0.7910	0.7766	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.292

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260507_MIN@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	682928
playerID	682928
playerName	CJ Abrams
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	WAS
teamID	30

Joey Wiemer (686894) · BATTER · RF · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 15

All-history rows before 20260508: 15

System season_avg: 0.3080

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3077

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.133	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_3B	0.067	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_AB	3.467	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.467	2.000	0.533	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.227	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.308	0.000	-0.058	0.250
predicted_BB	0.467	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.467	0.000	0.533	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.700	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.067	0.000	-0.067	1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.279	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.390	0.000	0.010	0.400
predicted_R	0.733	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.733	0.000	0.267	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.300	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.400	0.000	0.600	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.339	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.500	0.000	-0.250	0.250
predicted_SO	1.467	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.467	1.000	0.533	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.133	-
predicted_3B	0.067	-
predicted_AB	3.467	-
predicted_AVG	0.227	-
predicted_BB	0.467	-
predicted_H	0.700	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.279	-
predicted_R	0.733	-
predicted_RBI	0.300	-
predicted_SLG	0.339	-
predicted_SO	1.467	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.227	0.094
predicted_3B	0.032	-0.035
predicted_AB	3.455	-0.012
predicted_AVG	0.227	0.000
predicted_BB	0.328	-0.139
predicted_H	0.755	0.055
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.025	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.279	-0.000
predicted_R	0.619	-0.114
predicted_RBI	0.320	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.339	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.641	0.173

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.47), rates preserved: AVG=0.218 HR/AB=0.007

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	9.000	0.2353	0.2778	0.3529	0.2353	0.0000	0.1177	0.0588	0.5294
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	18.000	0.1714	0.2162	0.2286	0.1714	0.0000	0.0571	0.0571	0.5143
season	0.20	15	-	52.000	16.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	11.000	7.000	22.000	0.3077	0.3898	0.5000	0.3077	0.0385	0.1154	0.1346	0.4231

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2780
predicted_3B	0.0130
predicted_AB	3.4480
predicted_AVG	0.2274
predicted_BB	0.2530
predicted_H	0.7840
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0270
predicted_OBP	0.2786
predicted_R	0.5580
predicted_RBI	0.3310
predicted_SLG	0.3388
predicted_SO	1.7340

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1330	0.2780	0.2273	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0670	0.0130	0.0319	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4670	3.4480	3.4546	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2270	0.2274	0.2273	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4670	0.2530	0.3279	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7000	0.7840	0.7546	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0270	0.0245	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2790	0.2786	0.2787	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7330	0.5580	0.6193	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3000	0.3310	0.3201	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3390	0.3388	0.3389	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4670	1.7340	1.6405	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.308

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260502_MIL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	686894
playerID	686894
playerName	Joey Wiemer
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	WAS
teamID	30

Nasim Nuñez (683083) · BATTER · 2B · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 32

All-history rows before 20260508: 32

System season_avg: 0.2170

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2170

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.031	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.031	0.000	-0.031	0.000
predicted_3B	0.031	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.031	0.000	-0.031	0.000
predicted_AB	3.312	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.312	1.000	0.688	3.000
predicted_AVG	0.290	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.217	0.000	0.283	0.500
predicted_BB	0.469	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.469	0.000	0.531	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_H	0.820	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.719	0.000	1.281	2.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.353	0.600	0.600	Hitting_OBP	0.317	0.000	0.283	0.600
predicted_R	0.469	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.469	0.000	0.531	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.730	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.438	1.000	0.562	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.438	0.000	-0.438	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.390	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.245	0.000	0.255	0.500
predicted_SO	0.750	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.750	1.000	0.250	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.031	-
predicted_3B	0.031	-
predicted_AB	3.312	-
predicted_AVG	0.290	-
predicted_BB	0.469	-
predicted_H	0.820	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.353	-
predicted_R	0.469	-
predicted_RBI	0.730	-
predicted_SLG	0.390	-
predicted_SO	0.750	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.014	-0.017
predicted_3B	0.101	0.070
predicted_AB	3.010	-0.302
predicted_AVG	0.290	0.000
predicted_BB	0.392	-0.077
predicted_H	0.825	0.005
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.353	0.000
predicted_R	0.370	-0.099
predicted_RBI	0.739	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.390	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.608	-0.142

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.31), rates preserved: AVG=0.249 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	13.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	0.3077	0.3333	0.4615	0.3077	0.3077	0.0769	0.1538
last_10	0.35	10	-	29.000	9.000	0.000	1.000	8.000	4.000	5.000	6.000	0.3103	0.4000	0.3793	0.3103	0.2759	0.1724	0.2069
season	0.20	32	-	106.000	23.000	1.000	1.000	14.000	15.000	15.000	24.000	0.2170	0.3171	0.2453	0.2170	0.1321	0.1415	0.2264

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0050
predicted_3B	0.1380
predicted_AB	2.8480
predicted_AVG	0.2905
predicted_BB	0.3510
predicted_H	0.8270
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.3534
predicted_R	0.3170
predicted_RBI	0.7440
predicted_SLG	0.3895
predicted_SO	0.5320

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0310	0.0050	0.0141	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0310	0.1380	0.1006	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3120	2.8480	3.0104	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2900	0.2905	0.2903	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4690	0.3510	0.3923	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8200	0.8270	0.8245	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3530	0.3534	0.3533	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4690	0.3170	0.3702	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7300	0.7440	0.7391	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3900	0.3895	0.3897	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7500	0.5320	0.6083	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.217

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	1
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	1
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260507_MIN@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	683083
playerID	683083
playerName	Nasim Nuñez
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	WAS
teamID	30

Foster Griffin (656492) · PITCHER · Starter · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 7

All-history rows before 20260508: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.429	0.000	-0.429	1.000
predicted_IP	4.100	4.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.600	6.000	-1.500	-1.900
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	4.714	3.000	-3.714	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 4.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	29.200	7.000	19.000	11.000	22.000	3.000	2.1236	1.0112	0.2360	0.6404	0.3708	0.7416	0.1011
last_10	0.35	7	39.200	10.000	29.000	14.000	33.000	5.000	2.2689	1.0840	0.2521	0.7311	0.3529	0.8319	0.1260
season	0.20	7	39.200	10.000	29.000	14.000	33.000	5.000	2.2689	1.0840	0.2521	0.7311	0.3529	0.8319	0.1260

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.1000
predicted_ER	1.4240
predicted_ERA	2.2035
predicted_H	4.0150
predicted_HR	0.6680
predicted_IP	5.2000
predicted_SO	4.6030
predicted_WHIP	1.0512

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	4.0000	2.1000	2.7650	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	1.4240	1.2756	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.2035	2.2035	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	4.0150	2.9598	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.6680	0.7842	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.1000	5.2000	5.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	4.6030	3.3420	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0512	1.0512	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.1
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	4
SO	1
HR	1
BF	20
Pitches	83

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	4
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	26
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.27
Pitching_Flyouts	5
Pitching_Groundouts	9
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	97
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	57
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260502_MIL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	656492
playerID	656492
playerName	Foster Griffin
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	WAS
teamID	30

Richard Lovelady (663992) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 8

All-history rows before 20260508: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.725	0.200	0.475	1.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.200	0.000	4.000	4.000	4.000	0.000	0.0000	2.1818	0.0000	1.0909	1.0909	1.0909	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	1.000	7.000	7.000	9.000	0.000	0.9000	1.4000	0.1000	0.7000	0.7000	0.9000	0.0000
season	0.20	14	15.000	4.000	15.000	11.000	14.000	1.000	2.4000	1.7333	0.2667	1.0000	0.7333	0.9333	0.0667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.7500
predicted_ER	0.0750
predicted_ERA	0.7950
predicted_H	0.7960
predicted_HR	0.0110
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8440
predicted_WHIP	1.8185

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.7500	0.4875	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.0750	0.0488	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.7950	0.7950	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7960	0.5174	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0110	0.0072	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.0000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.8440	0.5486	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.8185	1.8185	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.40
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_MIN@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	663992
playerID	663992
playerName	Richard Lovelady
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	WAS
teamID	30

Gus Varland (681402) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 15

All-history rows before 20260508: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.807	1.100	0.293	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.067	2.000	-0.067	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	1.000	4.000	0.000	5.000	0.000	1.6875	0.7500	0.1875	0.7500	0.0000	0.9375	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	2.000	11.000	1.000	10.000	0.000	1.8621	1.2414	0.2069	1.1379	0.1035	1.0345	0.0000
season	0.20	15	14.200	5.000	16.000	3.000	16.000	1.000	3.0682	1.2955	0.3409	1.0909	0.2046	1.0909	0.0682

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.0770
predicted_ER	0.2250
predicted_ERA	2.0248
predicted_H	0.9540
predicted_HR	0.0140
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0020
predicted_WHIP	1.0311

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0770	0.0501	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2250	0.1463	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.0248	2.0248	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9540	0.6201	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0140	0.0091	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.0000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0020	1.0013	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0311	1.0311	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.07
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_MIN@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	681402
playerID	681402
playerName	Gus Varland
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	WAS
teamID	30

PJ Poulin (676571) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 18

All-history rows before 20260508: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.389	0.000	0.611	1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.850	1.000	0.250	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.778	2.000	0.222	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	6.000	0.000	3.0000	1.1667	0.3333	0.6667	0.5000	1.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	3.000	10.000	3.000	8.000	1.000	2.5312	1.2188	0.2812	0.9375	0.2812	0.7500	0.0938
season	0.20	18	18.100	7.000	15.000	10.000	14.000	3.000	3.4364	1.3636	0.3818	0.8182	0.5454	0.7636	0.1636

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4970
predicted_ER	0.3740
predicted_ERA	2.9232
predicted_H	0.9110
predicted_HR	0.0750
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9950
predicted_WHIP	1.2243

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4970	0.3231	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.3740	0.5931	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.9232	2.9232	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	0.9110	1.6421	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0750	0.0488	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.0000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9950	0.9968	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2243	1.2243	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	3
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	22

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.44
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	23
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	14
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W, BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_MIN@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	676571
playerID	676571
playerName	PJ Poulin
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	WAS
teamID	30

Brad Lord (695418) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 11

All-history rows before 20260508: 11

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.909	1.000	-0.909	-1.000
predicted_IP	0.100	0.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.982	2.000	-1.882	-1.900
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.455	2.000	-0.455	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 0.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	11.000	2.000	9.000	2.000	6.000	0.000	1.6364	1.0000	0.1818	0.8182	0.1818	0.5454	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	21.100	9.000	19.000	6.000	15.000	3.000	3.7969	1.1719	0.4219	0.8906	0.2812	0.7031	0.1406
season	0.20	11	23.200	10.000	23.000	6.000	16.000	3.000	3.8028	1.2254	0.4225	0.9718	0.2535	0.6761	0.1268

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4970
predicted_ER	0.6750
predicted_ERA	2.8259
predicted_H	1.8800
predicted_HR	0.1600
predicted_IP	2.0000
predicted_SO	1.3480
predicted_WHIP	1.1052

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4970	0.3231	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.6750	0.4388	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.8259	2.8259	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.8800	1.2220	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1600	0.1040	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	2.0000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.3480	1.2262	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1052	1.1052	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	9

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	12
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	3.80
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	50
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	30
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260502_MIL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	695418
playerID	695418
playerName	Brad Lord
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	WAS
teamID	30

Home Team: MIA

Joe Mack (691788) · BATTER · C · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 3

All-history rows before 20260508: 3

System season_avg: 0.2220

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2222

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	2.000	1.000	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.600	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_SO	0.667	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.667	0.000	0.333	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.222	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.600	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.222	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.300	-
predicted_SLG	0.222	-
predicted_SO	0.667	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.222	0.000
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.644	0.044
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.222	0.000
predicted_R	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.322	0.022
predicted_SLG	0.222	0.000
predicted_SO	0.667	0.000

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.215 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 3

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total RBI	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	3	-	9.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	0.2222	0.2222	0.2222	0.2222	0.1111	0.2222
last_10	0.35	3	-	9.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	0.2222	0.2222	0.2222	0.2222	0.1111	0.2222
season	0.20	3	-	9.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	0.2222	0.2222	0.2222	0.2222	0.1111	0.2222

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.0000
predicted_AVG	0.2222
predicted_BB	0.0000
predicted_H	0.6670
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.2222
predicted_R	0.0000
predicted_RBI	0.3330
predicted_SLG	0.2222
predicted_SO	0.6670

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.0000	3.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2220	0.2222	0.2221	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6000	0.6670	0.6436	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2220	0.2222	0.2221	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3000	0.3330	0.3215	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2220	0.2222	0.2221	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6670	0.6670	0.6670	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	3
Season rows before report date	3
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	3
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.222

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260506_BAL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	691788
playerID	691788
playerName	Joe Mack
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	MIA
teamID	15

Connor Norby (681393) · BATTER · DH · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 33

All-history rows before 20260508: 33

System season_avg: 0.2310

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2315

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.273	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.273	2.000	-0.273	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.236	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.231	0.500	-0.231	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.424	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.424	1.000	0.576	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.061	0.000	-0.061	0.000
predicted_H	0.730	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.758	1.000	-0.758	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.387	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.344	0.667	-0.094	-0.417
predicted_R	0.273	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.273	1.000	-0.273	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.330	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.364	1.000	-0.364	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.061	0.000	-0.061	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.306	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.370	0.500	-0.370	-0.500
predicted_SO	1.242	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.242	0.000	-1.242	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.273	-
predicted_AVG	0.236	-
predicted_BB	0.424	-
predicted_H	0.730	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.387	-
predicted_R	0.273	-
predicted_RBI	0.330	-
predicted_SLG	0.306	-
predicted_SO	1.242	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.168	-0.014
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.131	-0.142
predicted_AVG	0.236	0.000
predicted_BB	0.541	0.117
predicted_H	0.725	-0.005
predicted_HBP	0.156	-
predicted_HR	0.018	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.387	0.000
predicted_R	0.294	0.021
predicted_RBI	0.325	-0.005
predicted_SLG	0.306	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.515	0.273

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.27), rates preserved: AVG=0.221 HR/AB=0.006

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	9.000	0.2667	0.4211	0.3333	0.2667	0.0000	0.1333	0.2000	0.6000
last_10	0.35	10	-	30.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	17.000	0.2000	0.3684	0.2333	0.2000	0.0000	0.0667	0.2333	0.5667
season	0.20	33	-	108.000	25.000	6.000	3.000	12.000	9.000	14.000	41.000	0.2315	0.3438	0.3704	0.2315	0.0278	0.1111	0.1296	0.3796

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1610
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.0550
predicted_AVG	0.2363
predicted_BB	0.6040
predicted_H	0.7220
predicted_HBP	0.1560
predicted_HR	0.0170
predicted_OBP	0.3872
predicted_R	0.3050
predicted_RBI	0.3220
predicted_SLG	0.3057
predicted_SO	1.6620

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1820	0.1610	0.1683	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2730	3.0550	3.1313	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2360	0.2363	0.2362	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4240	0.6040	0.5410	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7300	0.7220	0.7248	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1560	0.1560	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0170	0.0181	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3870	0.3872	0.3871	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2730	0.3050	0.2938	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3300	0.3220	0.3248	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3060	0.3057	0.3058	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2420	1.6620	1.5150	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.231

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260507_BAL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	681393
playerID	681393
playerName	Connor Norby
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	MIA
teamID	15

Esteury Ruiz (665923) · BATTER · CF · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 5

All-history rows before 20260508: 5

System season_avg: 0.2350

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2353

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	-0.200
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.400	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.400	3.000	-0.400
predicted_AVG	0.235	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.235	0.000	-0.235
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.660	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.800	0.000	-0.800
predicted_HR	0.330	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.400	0.000	-0.400
predicted_OBP	0.235	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.235	0.000	-0.235
predicted_R	0.600	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.600	0.000	-0.600
predicted_RBI	0.490	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.600	0.000	-0.600
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.200	0.000	-0.200
predicted_SLG	0.647	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.647	0.000	-0.647
predicted_SO	1.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.200	0.000	-1.200

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.400	-
predicted_AVG	0.235	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.660	-
predicted_HR	0.330	-
predicted_OBP	0.235	-
predicted_R	0.600	-
predicted_RBI	0.490	-
predicted_SLG	0.647	-
predicted_SO	1.200	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.400	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.235	0.000
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.751	0.091
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.376	0.045
predicted_OBP	0.235	0.000
predicted_R	0.600	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.561	0.072
predicted_SLG	0.647	0.000
predicted_SO	1.200	0.000

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.40), rates preserved: AVG=0.221 HR/AB=0.110

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 5

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	6.000	0.2353	0.2353	0.6471	0.2353	0.1177	0.1765	0.3529
last_10	0.35	5	-	17.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	6.000	0.2353	0.2353	0.6471	0.2353	0.1177	0.1765	0.3529
season	0.20	5	-	17.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	6.000	0.2353	0.2353	0.6471	0.2353	0.1177	0.1765	0.3529

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.4000
predicted_AVG	0.2353
predicted_BB	0.0000
predicted_H	0.8000
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.4000
predicted_OBP	0.2353
predicted_R	0.6000
predicted_RBI	0.6000
predicted_SLG	0.6471
predicted_SO	1.2000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4000	3.4000	3.4000	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2350	0.2353	0.2352	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6600	0.8000	0.7510	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3300	0.4000	0.3755	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2350	0.2353	0.2352	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6000	0.6000	0.6000	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4900	0.6000	0.5615	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6470	0.6471	0.6471	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2000	1.2000	1.2000	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	5
Season rows before report date	5
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	5
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.235

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260507_BAL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	665923
playerID	665923
playerName	Esteury Ruiz
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	MIA
teamID	15

Xavier Edwards (669364) · BATTER · 2B · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 37

All-history rows before 20260508: 37

System season_avg: 0.3240

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3235

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.189	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.189	0.000	-0.189	0.000
predicted_3B	0.054	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.054	0.000	-0.054	0.000
predicted_AB	3.690	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.676	4.000	-0.676	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.272	0.667	0.667	Hitting_AVG	0.324	0.000	0.343	0.667
predicted_BB	0.568	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.568	0.000	0.432	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	1.189	0.000	0.811	2.000
predicted_HR	0.140	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.054	0.000	0.946	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.368	0.750	0.750	Hitting_OBP	0.414	0.000	0.336	0.750
predicted_R	0.649	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.649	0.000	0.351	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	0.324	1.000	1.676	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.108	0.000	-0.108	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.413	1.667	1.667	Hitting_SLG	0.449	0.000	1.218	1.667
predicted_SO	0.405	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.405	0.000	-0.405	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.189	-
predicted_3B	0.054	-
predicted_AB	3.690	-
predicted_AVG	0.272	-
predicted_BB	0.568	-
predicted_H	1.000	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.368	-
predicted_R	0.649	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.413	-
predicted_SO	0.405	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.114	-0.075
predicted_3B	0.025	-0.029
predicted_AB	3.596	-0.094
predicted_AVG	0.272	0.000
predicted_BB	0.551	-0.017
predicted_H	0.977	-0.023
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.137	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.368	0.000
predicted_R	0.542	-0.107
predicted_RBI	0.353	-0.007
predicted_SLG	0.413	0.000
predicted_SO	0.192	-0.213

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.69), rates preserved: AVG=0.265 HR/AB=0.037

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	0.000	0.2778	0.3500	0.4444	0.2778	0.0556	0.1111	0.1111	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	8.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	7.000	0.000	0.2353	0.3659	0.3529	0.2353	0.0294	0.0882	0.2059	0.0000
season	0.20	37	-	136.000	44.000	7.000	2.000	2.000	12.000	24.000	21.000	15.000	0.3235	0.4140	0.4485	0.3235	0.0147	0.0882	0.1544	0.1103

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0730
predicted_3B	0.0100
predicted_AB	3.5450
predicted_AVG	0.2721
predicted_BB	0.5420
predicted_H	0.9640
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1360
predicted_OBP	0.3684
predicted_R	0.4850
predicted_RBI	0.3490
predicted_SLG	0.4132
predicted_SO	0.0780

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1890	0.0730	0.1136	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0540	0.0100	0.0254	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6900	3.5450	3.5957	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2720	0.2721	0.2721	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5680	0.5420	0.5511	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0000	0.9640	0.9766	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1360	0.1374	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3680	0.3684	0.3683	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6490	0.4850	0.5424	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.3490	0.3528	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4130	0.4132	0.4131	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4050	0.0780	0.1924	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.324

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260506_BAL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	669364
playerID	669364
playerName	Xavier Edwards
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	MIA
teamID	15

Christopher Morel (666624) · BATTER · 1B · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 6

All-history rows before 20260508: 6

System season_avg: 0.2000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.333	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.333	4.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.216	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_BB	0.333	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.690	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.309	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.304	0.000	-0.054	0.250
predicted_R	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.216	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_SO	1.333	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.333	2.000	-0.333	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.333	-
predicted_AVG	0.216	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.690	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.309	-
predicted_R	0.167	-
predicted_RBI	0.000	-
predicted_SLG	0.216	-
predicted_SO	1.333	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.353	0.019
predicted_AVG	0.216	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.295	-0.038
predicted_H	0.713	0.023
predicted_HBP	0.182	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.309	0.000
predicted_R	0.118	-0.049
predicted_RBI	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.216	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.353	0.020

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.35), rates preserved: AVG=0.213 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	7.000	0.2353	0.3158	0.2353	0.2353	0.0588	0.4118
last_10	0.35	6	-	20.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	8.000	0.2000	0.3043	0.2000	0.2000	0.1000	0.4000
season	0.20	6	-	20.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	8.000	0.2000	0.3043	0.2000	0.2000	0.1000	0.4000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.3630
predicted_AVG	0.2159
predicted_BB	0.2740
predicted_H	0.7260
predicted_HBP	0.1820
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.3095
predicted_R	0.0920
predicted_RBI	0.0000
predicted_SLG	0.2159
predicted_SO	1.3630

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3330	3.3630	3.3525	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2160	0.2159	0.2159	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.2740	0.2947	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6900	0.7260	0.7134	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1820	0.1820	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3090	0.3095	0.3093	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1670	0.0920	0.1182	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2160	0.2159	0.2159	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3330	1.3630	1.3525	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.2

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260507_BAL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	666624
playerID	666624
playerName	Christopher Morel
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	MIA
teamID	15

Otto Lopez (672640) · BATTER · SS · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 36

All-history rows before 20260508: 36

System season_avg: 0.3380

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3379

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_3B	0.056	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_AB	4.028	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.028	4.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.358	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.338	0.500	-0.338	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_H	1.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.361	2.000	-1.361	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.365	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.370	0.500	-0.370	-0.500
predicted_R	0.667	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.444	0.000	-0.444	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.139	0.000	-0.139	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.501	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.503	0.500	-0.503	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.778	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.778	0.000	0.222	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.222	-
predicted_3B	0.056	-
predicted_AB	4.028	-
predicted_AVG	0.358	-
predicted_BB	0.167	-
predicted_H	1.400	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.365	-
predicted_R	0.667	-
predicted_RBI	0.370	-
predicted_SLG	0.501	-
predicted_SO	0.778	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.176	-0.046
predicted_3B	0.027	-0.029
predicted_AB	4.222	0.194
predicted_AVG	0.358	0.000
predicted_BB	0.082	-0.085
predicted_H	1.498	0.098
predicted_HBP	0.012	-
predicted_HR	0.141	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.365	-0.000
predicted_R	0.553	-0.114
predicted_RBI	0.396	0.026
predicted_SLG	0.501	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.697	-0.081

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.22), rates preserved: AVG=0.355 HR/AB=0.033

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 4.028

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	22.000	8.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	0.3636	0.3636	0.5000	0.3636	0.0454	0.0909	0.0000	0.0909
last_10	0.35	10	-	44.000	16.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	5.000	0.000	9.000	0.3636	0.3636	0.5000	0.3636	0.0227	0.0909	0.0000	0.2046
season	0.20	36	-	145.000	49.000	8.000	2.000	4.000	16.000	24.000	6.000	28.000	0.3379	0.3701	0.5034	0.3379	0.0276	0.1103	0.0414	0.1931

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1510
predicted_3B	0.0120
predicted_AB	4.3260
predicted_AVG	0.3585
predicted_BB	0.0360
predicted_H	1.5510
predicted_HBP	0.0120
predicted_HR	0.1470
predicted_OBP	0.3649
predicted_R	0.4920
predicted_RBI	0.4100
predicted_SLG	0.5007
predicted_SO	0.6540

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2220	0.1510	0.1759	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0560	0.0120	0.0274	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0280	4.3260	4.2217	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3580	0.3585	0.3583	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1670	0.0360	0.0819	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.4000	1.5510	1.4982	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0120	0.0120	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1470	0.1411	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3650	0.3649	0.3649	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6670	0.4920	0.5533	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3700	0.4100	0.3960	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5010	0.5007	0.5008	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7780	0.6540	0.6974	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.338

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260507_BAL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	672640
playerID	672640
playerName	Otto Lopez
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	MIA
teamID	15

Kyle Stowers (669065) · BATTER · RF · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 15

All-history rows before 20260508: 15

System season_avg: 0.2240

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2241

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.867	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.867	4.000	0.133	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.225	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.224	0.250	-0.224	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.467	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.467	0.000	-0.467	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_H	0.840	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.867	1.000	-0.867	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.318	0.250	-0.318	-0.250
predicted_R	0.533	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.533	1.000	-0.533	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.235	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.276	0.250	-0.276	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.067	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.067	1.000	-0.067	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.867	-
predicted_AVG	0.225	-
predicted_BB	0.467	-
predicted_H	0.840	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.286	-
predicted_R	0.533	-
predicted_RBI	0.050	-
predicted_SLG	0.235	-
predicted_SO	1.067	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.096	-0.104
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.877	0.010
predicted_AVG	0.225	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.373	-0.094
predicted_H	0.861	0.021
predicted_HBP	0.013	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.286	0.000
predicted_R	0.524	-0.009
predicted_RBI	0.048	-0.002
predicted_SLG	0.235	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.099	0.032

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.88), rates preserved: AVG=0.222 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 3.867

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	0.2632	0.3000	0.2632	0.2632	0.0000	0.0526	0.2632
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	7.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	13.000	0.1750	0.2500	0.1750	0.1750	0.0250	0.1000	0.3250
season	0.20	15	-	58.000	13.000	3.000	1.000	8.000	7.000	16.000	0.2241	0.3182	0.2759	0.2241	0.0172	0.1207	0.2759

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0400
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.8830
predicted_AVG	0.2245
predicted_BB	0.3220
predicted_H	0.8720
predicted_HBP	0.0130
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.2861
predicted_R	0.5190
predicted_RBI	0.0470
predicted_SLG	0.2349
predicted_SO	1.1160

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.0400	0.0960	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8670	3.8830	3.8774	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2250	0.2245	0.2247	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4670	0.3220	0.3728	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8400	0.8720	0.8608	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0130	0.0130	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2860	0.2861	0.2861	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5330	0.5190	0.5239	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0500	0.0470	0.0480	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2350	0.2349	0.2349	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0670	1.1160	1.0989	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.224

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260506_BAL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	669065
playerID	669065
playerName	Kyle Stowers
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	MIA
teamID	15

Leo Jiménez (677870) · BATTER · 3B · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 8

All-history rows before 20260508: 8

System season_avg: 0.1880

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1875

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.500	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	2.000	2.000	2.000	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.144	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.188	0.000	0.062	0.250
predicted_BB	0.469	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.240	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.375	0.000	0.625	1.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.343	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.409	0.333	-0.159	-0.083
predicted_R	0.156	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.144	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.188	0.000	0.062	0.250
predicted_SO	0.469	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.144	-
predicted_BB	0.469	-
predicted_H	0.240	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.343	-
predicted_R	0.156	-
predicted_RBI	0.000	-
predicted_SLG	0.144	-
predicted_SO	0.469	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.336	-0.164
predicted_AVG	0.144	0.000
predicted_BB	0.494	0.025
predicted_H	0.295	0.055
predicted_HBP	0.169	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.343	-0.000
predicted_R	0.165	0.009
predicted_RBI	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.144	0.000
predicted_SO	0.494	0.025

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.118 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	11.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	0.0909	0.3333	0.0909	0.0909	0.2727	0.2727
last_10	0.35	7	-	16.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	0.1875	0.3500	0.1875	0.1875	0.1875	0.1875
season	0.20	7	-	16.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	0.1875	0.3500	0.1875	0.1875	0.1875	0.1875

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.2470
predicted_AVG	0.1440
predicted_BB	0.5080
predicted_H	0.3240
predicted_HBP	0.1690
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.3425
predicted_R	0.1690
predicted_RBI	0.0000
predicted_SLG	0.1440
predicted_SO	0.5080

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.5000	2.2470	2.3356	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1440	0.1440	0.1440	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4690	0.5080	0.4943	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.2400	0.3240	0.2946	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1690	0.1690	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3430	0.3425	0.3427	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1560	0.1690	0.1645	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1440	0.1440	0.1440	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4690	0.5080	0.4943	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.188

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260507_BAL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	677870
playerID	677870
playerName	Leo Jiménez
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	MIA
teamID	15

Javier Sanoja (691594) · BATTER · LF · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 20

All-history rows before 20260508: 20

System season_avg: 0.2900

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2899

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.450	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.450	3.000	-0.450	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.185	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.290	0.000	0.043	0.333
predicted_BB	0.300	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.300	1.000	0.700	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_H	0.580	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.275	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.347	0.250	0.153	0.250
predicted_R	0.150	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.150	1.000	0.850	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.350	0.000	-0.350	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.234	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.348	0.000	-0.014	0.333
predicted_SO	0.550	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.550	0.000	-0.550	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.450	-
predicted_AVG	0.185	-
predicted_BB	0.300	-
predicted_H	0.580	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.275	-
predicted_R	0.150	-
predicted_RBI	0.060	-
predicted_SLG	0.234	-
predicted_SO	0.550	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.177	-0.023
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.401	-0.049
predicted_AVG	0.185	0.000
predicted_BB	0.375	0.075
predicted_H	0.609	0.029
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.275	-0.000
predicted_R	0.234	0.084
predicted_RBI	0.065	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.234	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.692	0.142

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.45), rates preserved: AVG=0.177 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 3.803

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	0.1176	0.2105	0.1765	0.1177	0.0000	0.1177	0.2941
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	6.000	0.2121	0.3158	0.2424	0.2121	0.0000	0.1515	0.1818
season	0.20	20	-	69.000	20.000	4.000	7.000	3.000	6.000	11.000	0.2899	0.3467	0.3478	0.2899	0.1014	0.0870	0.1594

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1640
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.3750
predicted_AVG	0.1851
predicted_BB	0.4160
predicted_H	0.6250
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.2746
predicted_R	0.2800
predicted_RBI	0.0680
predicted_SLG	0.2338
predicted_SO	0.7690

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.1640	0.1766	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4500	3.3750	3.4013	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1850	0.1851	0.1851	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3000	0.4160	0.3754	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5800	0.6250	0.6092	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2750	0.2746	0.2747	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1500	0.2800	0.2345	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0600	0.0680	0.0652	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2340	0.2338	0.2339	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5500	0.7690	0.6924	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.29

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260507_BAL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	691594
playerID	691594
playerName	Javier Sanoja
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	MIA
teamID	15

Sandy Alcantara (645261) · PITCHER · Starter · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 8

All-history rows before 20260508: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	2.875	7.000	-1.875	-6.000
predicted_IP	2.200	2.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	6.400	4.100	-4.200	-1.900
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	-	Pitching_SO	4.500	5.000	-0.500	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 2.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	27.100	21.000	38.000	14.000	18.000	4.000	6.9146	1.9024	0.7683	1.3902	0.5122	0.6585	0.1463
last_10	0.35	8	51.200	23.000	48.000	18.000	36.000	4.000	4.0065	1.2774	0.4452	0.9290	0.3484	0.6968	0.0774
season	0.20	8	51.200	23.000	48.000	18.000	36.000	4.000	4.0065	1.2774	0.4452	0.9290	0.3484	0.6968	0.0774

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.4830
predicted_ER	3.4750
predicted_ERA	5.3151
predicted_H	6.6870
predicted_HR	0.6380
predicted_IP	6.0000
predicted_SO	3.9980
predicted_WHIP	1.5587

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	2.4830	2.6639	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	3.4750	2.6088	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.3151	5.3151	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	6.6870	5.0466	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.6380	0.4147	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	2.2000	6.0000	5.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	4.0000	3.9980	3.9987	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5587	1.5587	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.2
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	3
SO	4
HR	0
BF	19
Pitches	85

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	25
Pitching_ER	7
Pitching_ERA	4.01
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	5
Pitching_H	8
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	4.1
Pitching_Pitches	106
Pitching_R	7
Pitching_SO	5
Pitching_Strikes	72
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_BAL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	645261
playerID	645261
playerName	Sandy Alcantara
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	MIA
teamID	15

Calvin Faucher (676534) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 16

All-history rows before 20260508: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.787	1.000	0.412	0.200
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	0.0000	1.0000	0.0000	0.4000	0.6000	0.8000
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	3.000	7.000	5.000	7.000	3.0000	1.3333	0.3333	0.7778	0.5556	0.7778
season	0.20	16	14.000	6.000	10.000	12.000	16.000	3.8571	1.5714	0.4286	0.7143	0.8571	1.1429

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6360
predicted_ER	0.2020
predicted_ERA	1.8214
predicted_H	0.5950
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8610
predicted_WHIP	1.2309

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.6360	0.4134	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2020	0.1313	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.8214	1.8214	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.5950	0.3867	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.0000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8610	0.9096	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2309	1.2309	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.86
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_BAL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	676534
playerID	676534
playerName	Calvin Faucher
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIA
teamID	15

Tyler Phillips (663969) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 11

All-history rows before 20260508: 11

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.273	0.000	-0.273	0.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.855	3.000	-0.655	-1.800
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	2.000	3.000	-2.000	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	9.100	2.000	10.000	4.000	7.000	1.000	1.9286	1.5000	0.2143	1.0714	0.4286	0.7500	0.1071
last_10	0.35	10	19.100	3.000	16.000	12.000	20.000	1.000	1.3966	1.4483	0.1552	0.8276	0.6207	1.0345	0.0517
season	0.20	11	21.100	3.000	17.000	12.000	22.000	1.000	1.2656	1.3594	0.1406	0.7969	0.5625	1.0312	0.0469

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.0450
predicted_ER	0.3580
predicted_ERA	1.6098
predicted_H	1.8620
predicted_HR	0.1510
predicted_IP	2.0000
predicted_SO	1.8120
predicted_WHIP	1.4538

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	1.0450	0.6793	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3580	0.2327	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.6098	1.6098	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	1.8620	1.9103	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1510	0.0982	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	2.0000	2.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.8120	1.1778	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4538	1.4538	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	2
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	13
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.27
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	3.0
Pitching_Pitches	47
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	35
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_PHI@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	663969
playerID	663969
playerName	Tyler Phillips
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIA
teamID	15

Anthony Bender (669622) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 16

All-history rows before 20260508: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.438	0.000	-0.438	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.650	0.200	0.350	0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	0.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	0.0000	0.4615	0.0000	0.4615	0.0000	0.6923
last_10	0.35	10	8.200	3.000	6.000	3.000	9.000	3.1154	1.0385	0.3462	0.6923	0.3462	1.0385
season	0.20	16	13.200	7.000	11.000	8.000	16.000	4.6098	1.3902	0.5122	0.8049	0.5854	1.1707

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2380
predicted_ER	0.2240
predicted_ERA	2.0124
predicted_H	0.6110
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9090
predicted_WHIP	0.8492

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2380	0.1547	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2240	0.1456	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.0124	2.0124	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.6110	0.7471	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9090	0.9408	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.8492	0.8492	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	2
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.61
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	6
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	4
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_BAL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	669622
playerID	669622
playerName	Anthony Bender
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIA
teamID	15

John King (667463) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 17

All-history rows before 20260508: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.729	0.200	0.271	0.800
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.824	0.000	-0.824	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	0.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.0000	0.2143	0.0000	0.2143	0.0000	0.4286	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	1.000	3.000	2.000	9.000	1.000	0.8438	0.4688	0.0938	0.2812	0.1875	0.8438	0.0938
season	0.20	17	15.200	1.000	3.000	5.000	14.000	1.000	0.5745	0.5106	0.0638	0.1915	0.3191	0.8936	0.0638

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1290
predicted_ER	0.0460
predicted_ERA	0.4102
predicted_H	0.2330
predicted_HR	0.0460
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.6670
predicted_WHIP	0.3626

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.1290	0.4338	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.0460	0.0299	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.4102	0.4102	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.2330	0.5014	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0460	0.0299	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.6670	0.4336	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.3626	0.3626	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	2
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.57
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	10
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_PHI@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	667463
playerID	667463
playerName	John King
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIA
teamID	15

Michael Petersen (656848) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260508: 13

All-history rows before 20260508: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.385	0.000	2.615	3.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.031	1.000	-0.031	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.231	1.000	0.769	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	1.000	3.000	1.000	8.000	0.000	1.9286	0.8571	0.2143	0.6429	0.2143	1.7143	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	11.100	4.000	8.000	4.000	12.000	0.000	3.1765	1.0588	0.3529	0.7059	0.3529	1.0588	0.0000
season	0.20	13	14.100	5.000	9.000	5.000	16.000	1.000	3.1395	0.9767	0.3488	0.6279	0.3488	1.1163	0.0698

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2900
predicted_ER	0.2900
predicted_ERA	2.6075
predicted_H	0.6620
predicted_HR	0.0140
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.3650
predicted_WHIP	0.9516

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.2900	0.5385	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	0.2900	1.2385	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.6075	2.6075	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	0.6620	1.8303	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0140	0.0091	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.3650	1.5873	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9516	0.9516	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	4
R	3
ER	3
BB	1
SO	2
HR	0
BF	8
Pitches	37

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.14
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	10
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_BAL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	656848
playerID	656848
playerName	Michael Petersen
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIA
teamID	15