Ultra Detailed Player Audit - 20260507

Player-by-player trace from JSON pipeline. Metric-by-metric comparison without wide horizontal table dependency.

Windows shown explicitly: Team recent form = latest 10 games from enhanced analysis. Player historical helpers = 75 games; balancing rates = 162 games (as implemented in services).

Color guide: Red = final above baseline, Blue = final below baseline, Green = no difference.

20260507_BAL@MIA 20260507_CIN@CHC 20260507_CLE@KC 20260507_MIN@WAS 20260507_NYM@COL 20260507_OAK@PHI 20260507_PIT@ARI 20260507_STL@SD 20260507_TB@BOS 20260507_TEX@NYY

20260507_BAL@MIA

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 2, "confidence": 0.56, "home_win_probability": 0.43999999999999995, "away_win_probability": 0.56, "predicted_score_text": "BAL 5 - 2 MIA", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to final winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3, "predicted_score_text": "BAL 5 - 3 MIA", "confidence": 0.56, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score", "final_prediction_synced": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "BAL 5 - 3 MIA", "winner": "BAL"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 2, "score_text": "BAL 5 - 2 MIA", "winner": "BAL"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": -1, "total_run_delta": -1, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"}}

Factors Considered: Historical team performance, Recent form (latest 10 games), Head-to-head matchup history, Player-level statistics, Recent 10-game performance trends, Pitcher recent form analysis, Team hitting/pitching streaks, Low-score probability modeling, Environmental factors, Home field advantage, Game timing factors, Seasonal adjustments, Machine learning models

Away Team: BAL

Gunnar Henderson (683002) · BATTER · SS · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 36

All-history rows before 20260507: 36

System season_avg: 0.2010

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2013

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_3B	0.028	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_AB	4.278	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.278	5.000	-0.278	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.164	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.201	0.000	0.049	0.250
predicted_BB	0.333	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_H	0.660	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.861	0.000	0.139	1.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.183	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.262	0.000	0.138	0.400
predicted_R	0.639	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.639	0.000	0.361	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.528	0.000	-0.528	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.139	0.000	-0.139	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.250	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.429	0.000	-0.179	0.250
predicted_SO	1.472	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.472	3.000	-1.472	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.028	-
predicted_AB	4.278	-
predicted_AVG	0.164	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.660	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.183	-
predicted_R	0.639	-
predicted_RBI	0.200	-
predicted_SLG	0.250	-
predicted_SO	1.472	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.128	-0.039
predicted_3B	0.014	-0.014
predicted_AB	4.377	0.099
predicted_AVG	0.164	0.000
predicted_BB	0.185	-0.148
predicted_H	0.704	0.044
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.085	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.183	-0.000
predicted_R	0.483	-0.156
predicted_RBI	0.212	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.250	0.000
predicted_SO	1.595	0.123

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.38), rates preserved: AVG=0.161 HR/AB=0.019

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 4.278

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	23.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	9.000	0.1304	0.1304	0.1304	0.1304	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.3913
last_10	0.35	10	-	43.000	8.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	1.000	16.000	0.1860	0.2045	0.3023	0.1860	0.0233	0.0698	0.0233	0.3721
season	0.20	36	-	154.000	31.000	6.000	1.000	9.000	19.000	23.000	12.000	53.000	0.2013	0.2619	0.4286	0.2013	0.0584	0.1234	0.0779	0.3442

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1070
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	4.4310
predicted_AVG	0.1640
predicted_BB	0.1050
predicted_H	0.7270
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0880
predicted_OBP	0.1826
predicted_R	0.3990
predicted_RBI	0.2180
predicted_SLG	0.2502
predicted_SO	1.6620

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.1070	0.1280	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0280	0.0060	0.0137	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.2780	4.4310	4.3774	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1640	0.1640	0.1640	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.1050	0.1848	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6600	0.7270	0.7036	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0880	0.0852	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1830	0.1826	0.1827	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6390	0.3990	0.4830	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2000	0.2180	0.2117	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2500	0.2502	0.2501	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4720	1.6620	1.5955	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.201

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260506_BAL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	683002
playerID	683002
playerName	Gunnar Henderson
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	BAL
teamID	3

Tyler O'Neill (641933) · BATTER · RF · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 12

All-history rows before 20260507: 12

System season_avg: 0.1940

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1944

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	3.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.194	0.000	-0.194	0.000
predicted_BB	0.667	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.667	1.000	0.333	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.420	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.583	0.000	-0.583	0.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.356	0.200	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.370	0.250	-0.170	-0.050
predicted_R	0.750	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.750	1.000	-0.750	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.176	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.278	0.000	-0.278	0.000
predicted_SO	0.833	3.000	3.000	Hitting_SO	0.833	1.000	2.167	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.160	-
predicted_BB	0.667	-
predicted_H	0.420	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.356	-
predicted_R	0.750	-
predicted_RBI	0.090	-
predicted_SLG	0.176	-
predicted_SO	0.833	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.964	-0.036
predicted_AVG	0.160	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.756	0.089
predicted_H	0.453	0.033
predicted_HBP	0.099	-
predicted_HR	0.014	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.356	0.000
predicted_R	0.673	-0.077
predicted_RBI	0.096	0.006
predicted_SLG	0.176	0.000
predicted_SO	0.921	0.088

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.151 HR/AB=0.005

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	5.000	5.000	0.1429	0.3684	0.1429	0.1429	0.0000	0.0000	0.3571	0.3571
last_10	0.35	10	-	31.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	6.000	10.000	0.1613	0.3333	0.1613	0.1613	0.0000	0.0323	0.1935	0.3226
season	0.20	12	-	36.000	7.000	1.000	4.000	9.000	8.000	10.000	0.1944	0.3696	0.2778	0.1944	0.0278	0.1111	0.2222	0.2778

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.9450
predicted_AVG	0.1596
predicted_BB	0.8040
predicted_H	0.4700
predicted_HBP	0.0990
predicted_HR	0.0160
predicted_OBP	0.3564
predicted_R	0.6310
predicted_RBI	0.0990
predicted_SLG	0.1763
predicted_SO	0.9690

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	2.9450	2.9642	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1600	0.1596	0.1597	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6670	0.8040	0.7561	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4200	0.4700	0.4525	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0990	0.0990	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0160	0.0139	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3560	0.3564	0.3563	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7500	0.6310	0.6726	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0900	0.0990	0.0959	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1760	0.1763	0.1762	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8330	0.9690	0.9214	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.194

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260503_BAL@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	641933
playerID	641933
playerName	Tyler O'Neill
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	BAL
teamID	3

Pete Alonso (624413) · BATTER · 1B · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 37

All-history rows before 20260507: 37

System season_avg: 0.2250

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2246

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.270	0.000	-0.270	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.730	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.730	5.000	0.270	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.302	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.225	0.200	0.025	0.050
predicted_BB	0.568	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.568	0.000	0.432	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.030	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.838	1.000	0.162	0.000
predicted_HR	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.189	1.000	-0.189	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.387	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.331	0.200	0.069	0.200
predicted_R	0.703	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.703	1.000	-0.703	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.900	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.541	3.000	-0.541	-3.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.710	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.449	0.800	-0.199	-0.550
predicted_SO	1.054	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.054	1.000	0.946	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.270	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.730	-
predicted_AVG	0.302	-
predicted_BB	0.568	-
predicted_H	1.030	-
predicted_HR	0.320	-
predicted_OBP	0.387	-
predicted_R	0.703	-
predicted_RBI	0.900	-
predicted_SLG	0.710	-
predicted_SO	1.054	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.394	0.123
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.757	0.027
predicted_AVG	0.302	0.000
predicted_BB	0.531	-0.037
predicted_H	1.101	0.071
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.345	0.025
predicted_OBP	0.387	-0.000
predicted_R	1.043	0.340
predicted_RBI	0.962	0.062
predicted_SLG	0.710	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.010	-0.044

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.76), rates preserved: AVG=0.293 HR/AB=0.092

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	7.000	3.000	2.000	6.000	7.000	2.000	6.000	0.3500	0.4091	0.8000	0.3500	0.1000	0.3000	0.1000	0.3000
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	10.000	4.000	4.000	10.000	13.000	6.000	7.000	0.2857	0.3902	0.7429	0.2857	0.1143	0.2857	0.1714	0.2000
season	0.20	37	-	138.000	31.000	10.000	7.000	20.000	26.000	21.000	39.000	0.2246	0.3312	0.4493	0.2246	0.0507	0.1449	0.1522	0.2826

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.4600
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7710
predicted_AVG	0.3024
predicted_BB	0.5110
predicted_H	1.1400
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.3590
predicted_OBP	0.3869
predicted_R	1.2260
predicted_RBI	0.9950
predicted_SLG	0.7099
predicted_SO	0.9860

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2700	0.4600	0.3935	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7300	3.7710	3.7567	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3020	0.3024	0.3023	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5680	0.5110	0.5310	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0300	1.1400	1.1015	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3200	0.3590	0.3453	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3870	0.3869	0.3869	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7030	1.2260	1.0430	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.9000	0.9950	0.9618	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.7100	0.7099	0.7099	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0540	0.9860	1.0098	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.225

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260506_BAL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	624413
playerID	624413
playerName	Pete Alonso
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	BAL
teamID	3

Colton Cowser (681297) · BATTER · CF · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 20

All-history rows before 20260507: 20

System season_avg: 0.1860

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1864

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.950	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	2.950	5.000	1.050	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.170	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.186	0.000	0.064	0.250
predicted_BB	0.400	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.400	0.000	0.600	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_H	0.430	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.550	0.000	0.450	1.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.266	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.279	0.000	0.121	0.400
predicted_R	0.300	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.300	0.000	0.700	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.260	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.250	1.000	0.750	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.214	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.220	0.000	0.030	0.250
predicted_SO	1.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.100	3.000	-1.100	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.100	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.950	-
predicted_AVG	0.170	-
predicted_BB	0.400	-
predicted_H	0.430	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.266	-
predicted_R	0.300	-
predicted_RBI	0.260	-
predicted_SLG	0.214	-
predicted_SO	1.100	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.129	0.029
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.161	0.211
predicted_AVG	0.170	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.423	0.023
predicted_H	0.512	0.082
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.266	0.000
predicted_R	0.250	-0.050
predicted_RBI	0.307	0.047
predicted_SLG	0.214	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.254	0.154

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.16), rates preserved: AVG=0.162 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	0.1765	0.2632	0.2353	0.1765	0.1177	0.1177	0.4118
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	5.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	5.000	14.000	0.1515	0.2632	0.1818	0.1515	0.0909	0.1515	0.4242
season	0.20	20	-	59.000	11.000	2.000	5.000	6.000	8.000	22.000	0.1864	0.2794	0.2203	0.1864	0.0848	0.1356	0.3729

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1440
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.2750
predicted_AVG	0.1697
predicted_BB	0.4360
predicted_H	0.5560
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.2664
predicted_R	0.2230
predicted_RBI	0.3330
predicted_SLG	0.2136
predicted_SO	1.3370

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1000	0.1440	0.1286	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.9500	3.2750	3.1612	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1700	0.1697	0.1698	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4000	0.4360	0.4234	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4300	0.5560	0.5119	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2660	0.2664	0.2663	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3000	0.2230	0.2500	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2600	0.3330	0.3075	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2140	0.2136	0.2137	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1000	1.3370	1.2540	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.186

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260505_BAL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	681297
playerID	681297
playerName	Colton Cowser
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	BAL
teamID	3

Jeremiah Jackson (669236) · BATTER · 2B · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 31

All-history rows before 20260507: 31

System season_avg: 0.2520

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2522

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.097	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.097	0.000	-0.097	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.710	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.710	4.000	0.290	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.151	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.252	0.000	-0.252	0.000
predicted_BB	0.065	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.065	0.000	-0.065	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.032	0.000	-0.032	0.000
predicted_H	0.450	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.935	0.000	-0.935	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.194	0.000	-0.194	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.154	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.269	0.000	-0.269	0.000
predicted_R	0.323	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.323	0.000	-0.323	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.260	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.774	0.000	-0.774	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.032	0.000	-0.032	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.224	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.435	0.000	-0.435	0.000
predicted_SO	0.806	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.806	0.000	0.194	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.097	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.710	-
predicted_AVG	0.151	-
predicted_BB	0.065	-
predicted_H	0.450	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.154	-
predicted_R	0.323	-
predicted_RBI	0.260	-
predicted_SLG	0.224	-
predicted_SO	0.806	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.070	-0.027
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.815	0.105
predicted_AVG	0.151	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.031	-0.034
predicted_H	0.536	0.086
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.070	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.154	0.000
predicted_R	0.180	-0.143
predicted_RBI	0.312	0.052
predicted_SLG	0.224	0.000
predicted_SO	0.780	-0.026

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.82), rates preserved: AVG=0.141 HR/AB=0.018

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	0.1000	0.1000	0.1000	0.1000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	7.000	0.1579	0.1579	0.2632	0.1579	0.0263	0.1316	0.0000	0.1842
season	0.20	31	-	115.000	29.000	3.000	6.000	24.000	10.000	2.000	25.000	0.2522	0.2689	0.4348	0.2522	0.0522	0.2087	0.0174	0.2174

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0560
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.8720
predicted_AVG	0.1507
predicted_BB	0.0130
predicted_H	0.5830
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.0760
predicted_OBP	0.1540
predicted_R	0.1030
predicted_RBI	0.3400
predicted_SLG	0.2241
predicted_SO	0.7660

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0970	0.0560	0.0703	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7100	3.8720	3.8153	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1510	0.1507	0.1508	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0650	0.0130	0.0312	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4500	0.5830	0.5364	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0760	0.0704	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1540	0.1540	0.1540	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3230	0.1030	0.1800	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2600	0.3400	0.3120	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2240	0.2241	0.2241	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8060	0.7660	0.7800	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.252

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260506_BAL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	669236
playerID	669236
playerName	Jeremiah Jackson
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	BAL
teamID	3

Dylan Beavers (687637) · BATTER · LF · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 26

All-history rows before 20260507: 26

System season_avg: 0.2180

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2184

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.154	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.154	1.000	0.846	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.346	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.346	2.000	1.654	3.000
predicted_AVG	0.205	0.400	0.400	Hitting_AVG	0.218	0.500	0.182	-0.100
predicted_BB	0.385	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.385	1.000	-0.385	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.038	0.000	-0.038	0.000
predicted_H	0.630	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.731	1.000	1.269	1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.077	0.000	0.923	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.288	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.296	0.667	0.104	-0.267
predicted_R	0.423	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.423	0.000	0.577	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	0.385	1.000	1.615	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.317	1.200	1.200	Hitting_SLG	0.333	1.000	0.867	0.200
predicted_SO	0.885	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.885	1.000	0.115	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.154	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.346	-
predicted_AVG	0.205	-
predicted_BB	0.385	-
predicted_H	0.630	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.288	-
predicted_R	0.423	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.317	-
predicted_SO	0.885	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.201	0.047
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.374	0.028
predicted_AVG	0.205	0.000
predicted_BB	0.393	0.008
predicted_H	0.673	0.043
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.288	0.000
predicted_R	0.411	-0.012
predicted_RBI	0.384	0.024
predicted_SLG	0.317	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.038	0.153

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.37), rates preserved: AVG=0.199 HR/AB=0.015

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	2.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 26

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	0.1765	0.2632	0.2353	0.1765	0.0000	0.1177	0.1177	0.4118
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	8.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	4.000	9.000	0.2353	0.3158	0.4118	0.2353	0.0294	0.1177	0.1177	0.2647
season	0.20	26	-	87.000	19.000	4.000	2.000	10.000	11.000	10.000	23.000	0.2184	0.2959	0.3333	0.2184	0.0230	0.1149	0.1149	0.2644

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2260
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.3890
predicted_AVG	0.2055
predicted_BB	0.3970
predicted_H	0.6960
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0500
predicted_OBP	0.2882
predicted_R	0.4050
predicted_RBI	0.3970
predicted_SLG	0.3167
predicted_SO	1.1210

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1540	0.2260	0.2008	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3460	3.3890	3.3739	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2050	0.2055	0.2053	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3850	0.3970	0.3928	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6300	0.6960	0.6729	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0500	0.0500	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2880	0.2882	0.2881	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4230	0.4050	0.4113	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.3970	0.3841	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3170	0.3167	0.3168	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8850	1.1210	1.0384	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	26
Season rows before report date	26
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	26
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.218

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260506_BAL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	687637
playerID	687637
playerName	Dylan Beavers
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	BAL
teamID	3

Samuel Basallo (694212) · BATTER · C · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 26

All-history rows before 20260507: 26

System season_avg: 0.2470

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2474

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.115	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.115	0.000	-0.115	0.000
predicted_3B	0.038	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.038	0.000	-0.038	0.000
predicted_AB	3.731	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.731	3.000	-0.731	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.302	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.247	0.333	-0.247	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.385	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.385	1.000	-0.385	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.923	1.000	-0.923	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.192	0.000	-0.192	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.347	0.200	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.318	0.500	-0.118	-0.300
predicted_R	0.462	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.462	1.000	0.538	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.660	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.507	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.454	0.333	-0.454	-0.333
predicted_SO	1.038	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.038	0.000	-0.038	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.115	-
predicted_3B	0.038	-
predicted_AB	3.731	-
predicted_AVG	0.302	-
predicted_BB	0.385	-
predicted_H	1.020	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.347	-
predicted_R	0.462	-
predicted_RBI	0.660	-
predicted_SLG	0.507	-
predicted_SO	1.038	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.181	0.066
predicted_3B	0.099	0.061
predicted_AB	3.871	0.140
predicted_AVG	0.302	0.000
predicted_BB	0.313	-0.072
predicted_H	1.132	0.112
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.103	0.013
predicted_OBP	0.347	-0.000
predicted_R	0.475	0.013
predicted_RBI	0.733	0.073
predicted_SLG	0.507	0.000
predicted_SO	1.134	0.096

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.87), rates preserved: AVG=0.292 HR/AB=0.027

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	1.000	1.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 26

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	7.000	0.2500	0.2857	0.4000	0.2500	0.0000	0.2000	0.0500	0.3500
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	16.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	9.000	6.000	3.000	10.000	0.4000	0.4419	0.6750	0.4000	0.0500	0.2250	0.0750	0.2500
season	0.20	26	-	97.000	24.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	13.000	12.000	10.000	27.000	0.2474	0.3178	0.4536	0.2474	0.0515	0.1340	0.1031	0.2783

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2170
predicted_3B	0.1310
predicted_AB	3.9460
predicted_AVG	0.3020
predicted_BB	0.2740
predicted_H	1.1920
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1100
predicted_OBP	0.3468
predicted_R	0.4820
predicted_RBI	0.7720
predicted_SLG	0.5070
predicted_SO	1.1860

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1150	0.2170	0.1813	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0380	0.1310	0.0985	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7310	3.9460	3.8708	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3020	0.3020	0.3020	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3850	0.2740	0.3128	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0200	1.1920	1.1318	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.1100	0.1030	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3470	0.3468	0.3469	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4620	0.4820	0.4750	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6600	0.7720	0.7328	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5070	0.5070	0.5070	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0380	1.1860	1.1342	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	26
Season rows before report date	26
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	26
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	1
HBP	1
season_avg	0.247

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260506_BAL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	694212
playerID	694212
playerName	Samuel Basallo
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	BAL
teamID	3

Taylor Ward (621493) · BATTER · DH · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 36

All-history rows before 20260507: 36

System season_avg: 0.2850

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2846

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.361	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.361	0.000	0.639	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.611	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.611	2.000	1.389	3.000
predicted_AVG	0.182	0.200	0.200	Hitting_AVG	0.285	0.000	-0.085	0.200
predicted_BB	0.944	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.944	3.000	-0.944	-3.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_H	0.600	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.028	0.000	-0.028	1.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.438	0.200	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.434	0.600	-0.234	-0.400
predicted_R	0.694	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.694	3.000	-0.694	-3.000
predicted_RBI	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.206	0.400	0.400	Hitting_SLG	0.408	0.000	-0.008	0.400
predicted_SO	0.750	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.750	2.000	0.250	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.361	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.611	-
predicted_AVG	0.182	-
predicted_BB	0.944	-
predicted_H	0.600	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.438	-
predicted_R	0.694	-
predicted_RBI	0.200	-
predicted_SLG	0.206	-
predicted_SO	0.750	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.165	-0.196
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.225	-0.386
predicted_AVG	0.182	-0.000
predicted_BB	1.226	0.282
predicted_H	0.566	-0.034
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.007	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.438	-0.000
predicted_R	1.010	0.316
predicted_RBI	0.190	-0.010
predicted_SLG	0.206	0.000
predicted_SO	0.900	0.150

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.61), rates preserved: AVG=0.157 HR/AB=0.002

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	7.000	7.000	6.000	0.1333	0.4091	0.1333	0.1333	0.0000	0.0667	0.4667	0.4000
last_10	0.35	10	-	27.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	11.000	15.000	8.000	0.1852	0.4762	0.1852	0.1852	0.0000	0.0370	0.5556	0.2963
season	0.20	36	-	130.000	37.000	13.000	1.000	12.000	25.000	34.000	27.000	0.2846	0.4337	0.4077	0.2846	0.0077	0.0923	0.2615	0.2077

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0600
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.0170
predicted_AVG	0.1817
predicted_BB	1.3780
predicted_H	0.5480
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0050
predicted_OBP	0.4375
predicted_R	1.1800
predicted_RBI	0.1850
predicted_SLG	0.2063
predicted_SO	0.9810

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3610	0.0600	0.1653	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6110	3.0170	3.2249	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1820	0.1817	0.1818	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.9440	1.3780	1.2261	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6000	0.5480	0.5662	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0050	0.0067	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4380	0.4375	0.4377	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6940	1.1800	1.0099	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2000	0.1850	0.1902	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2060	0.2063	0.2062	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7500	0.9810	0.9002	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.285

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	3
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	3
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260506_BAL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	621493
playerID	621493
playerName	Taylor Ward
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	BAL
teamID	3

Coby Mayo (691723) · BATTER · 3B · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 27

All-history rows before 20260507: 27

System season_avg: 0.1540

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1538

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.111	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.111	0.000	0.889	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.370	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.370	3.000	0.630	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.112	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.154	0.000	0.346	0.500
predicted_BB	0.296	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.296	0.000	0.704	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.310	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.519	0.000	1.481	2.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.126	0.600	0.600	Hitting_OBP	0.222	0.000	0.378	0.600
predicted_R	0.296	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.296	0.000	0.704	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.180	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.407	0.000	0.593	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.037	0.000	-0.037	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.211	0.750	0.750	Hitting_SLG	0.286	0.000	0.464	0.750
predicted_SO	1.111	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.111	2.000	-0.111	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.370	-
predicted_AVG	0.112	-
predicted_BB	0.296	-
predicted_H	0.310	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.126	-
predicted_R	0.296	-
predicted_RBI	0.180	-
predicted_SLG	0.211	-
predicted_SO	1.111	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.074	-0.037
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.269	-0.101
predicted_AVG	0.112	0.000
predicted_BB	0.141	-0.155
predicted_H	0.343	0.033
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.081	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.126	-0.000
predicted_R	0.183	-0.112
predicted_RBI	0.200	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.211	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.160	0.049

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.37), rates preserved: AVG=0.102 HR/AB=0.024

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	6.000	0.0667	0.0667	0.0667	0.0667	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.4000
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	5.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	12.000	0.1471	0.1471	0.3529	0.1471	0.0588	0.1177	0.0000	0.3529
season	0.20	27	-	91.000	14.000	3.000	3.000	11.000	8.000	8.000	30.000	0.1538	0.2222	0.2857	0.1538	0.0330	0.1209	0.0879	0.3297

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0540
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.2140
predicted_AVG	0.1123
predicted_BB	0.0570
predicted_H	0.3610
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0870
predicted_OBP	0.1259
predicted_R	0.1230
predicted_RBI	0.2100
predicted_SLG	0.2107
predicted_SO	1.1870

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1110	0.0540	0.0739	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3700	3.2140	3.2686	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1120	0.1123	0.1122	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2960	0.0570	0.1406	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3100	0.3610	0.3432	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0870	0.0810	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1260	0.1259	0.1259	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2960	0.1230	0.1835	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1800	0.2100	0.1995	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2110	0.2107	0.2108	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1110	1.1870	1.1604	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.154

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260506_BAL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	691723
playerID	691723
playerName	Coby Mayo
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	BAL
teamID	3

Cade Povich (700249) · PITCHER · Starter · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 3

All-history rows before 20260507: 3

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	2.667	5.000	-2.667	-5.000
predicted_IP	4.100	4.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.133	4.000	-1.033	0.100
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	-	Pitching_SO	3.667	4.000	0.333	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 3

Reference playing time: 4.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	3	16.100	8.000	16.000	5.000	11.000	3.000	4.4082	1.2857	0.4898	0.9796	0.3061	0.6735	0.1837
last_10	0.35	3	16.100	8.000	16.000	5.000	11.000	3.000	4.4082	1.2857	0.4898	0.9796	0.3061	0.6735	0.1837
season	0.20	3	16.100	8.000	16.000	5.000	11.000	3.000	4.4082	1.2857	0.4898	0.9796	0.3061	0.6735	0.1837

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.6330
predicted_ER	2.6120
predicted_ERA	4.4082
predicted_H	5.2240
predicted_HR	0.9800
predicted_IP	5.1000
predicted_SO	3.5920
predicted_WHIP	1.2857

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	1.6330	1.0615	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	2.6120	1.6978	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.4082	4.4082	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	5.2240	4.4456	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.9800	0.6370	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.1000	5.1000	5.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	4.0000	3.5920	3.7348	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2857	1.2857	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	3
Season rows before report date	3
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	3
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.1
H	3
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	4
HR	0
BF	18
Pitches	75

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	20
Pitching_ER	5
Pitching_ERA	4.41
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	5
Pitching_H	7
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	4.0
Pitching_Pitches	77
Pitching_R	5
Pitching_SO	4
Pitching_Strikes	46
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260501_BAL@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	700249
playerID	700249
playerName	Cade Povich
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	BAL
teamID	3

Andrew Kittredge (552640) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 5

All-history rows before 20260507: 5

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.400	0.000	-1.400	0.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.660	0.200	0.540	1.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 5

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	7.000	10.000	2.000	5.000	1.000	15.7500	3.0000	1.7500	2.5000	0.5000	1.2500	0.2500
last_10	0.35	5	4.000	7.000	10.000	2.000	5.000	1.000	15.7500	3.0000	1.7500	2.5000	0.5000	1.2500	0.2500
season	0.20	5	4.000	7.000	10.000	2.000	5.000	1.000	15.7500	3.0000	1.7500	2.5000	0.5000	1.2500	0.2500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3330
predicted_ER	1.1670
predicted_ERA	15.7500
predicted_H	1.6670
predicted_HR	0.1670
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.8330
predicted_WHIP	3.0000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3330	0.2165	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	1.1670	0.7586	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	15.7500	15.7500	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.6670	1.4335	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.1670	0.4586	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	0.2000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.8330	0.5414	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	3.0000	3.0000	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	5
Season rows before report date	5
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	5
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	1
BF	4
Pitches	12

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	15.75
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	20
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_BAL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	552640
playerID	552640
playerName	Andrew Kittredge
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BAL
teamID	3

Anthony Nunez (689296) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 17

All-history rows before 20260507: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.529	0.000	-0.529	0.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.976	1.100	0.224	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.176	1.000	-0.176	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	4.000	8.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	6.3529	1.5882	0.7059	1.4118	0.1765	0.8823	0.3529
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	5.000	10.000	2.000	11.000	3.000	4.2188	1.1250	0.4688	0.9375	0.1875	1.0312	0.2812
season	0.20	16	18.000	6.000	14.000	3.000	20.000	4.000	3.0000	0.9444	0.3333	0.7778	0.1667	1.1111	0.2222

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1780
predicted_ER	0.5480
predicted_ERA	4.9354
predicted_H	1.1190
predicted_HR	0.3020
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9800
predicted_WHIP	1.2973

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1780	0.1157	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5480	0.3562	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.9354	4.9354	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.1190	0.7274	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.3020	0.1963	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.0000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9800	0.9870	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2973	1.2973	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.50
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_BAL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	689296
playerID	689296
playerName	Anthony Nunez
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BAL
teamID	3

Keegan Akin (669211) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 5

All-history rows before 20260507: 5

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.400	0.000	-0.400	1.000
predicted_IP	0.100	0.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.840	1.000	-0.740	-0.900
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.800	1.000	-0.800	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 5

Reference playing time: 0.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	7.000	9.000	4.000	2.000	13.5000	1.9286	1.5000	1.9286	0.8571	0.4286
last_10	0.35	5	4.200	7.000	9.000	4.000	2.000	13.5000	1.9286	1.5000	1.9286	0.8571	0.4286
season	0.20	5	4.200	7.000	9.000	4.000	2.000	13.5000	1.9286	1.5000	1.9286	0.8571	0.4286

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.0000
predicted_ER	1.5000
predicted_ERA	13.5000
predicted_H	1.9290
predicted_HR	0.4290
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8570
predicted_WHIP	1.9286

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	1.5000	1.3250	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	13.5000	13.5000	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.9290	1.2539	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.4290	0.2788	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	1.0000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.8570	0.5571	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.9286	1.9286	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	5
Season rows before report date	5
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	5
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.1
H	0
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	7

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	13.50
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	8
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	6
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_BAL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	669211
playerID	669211
playerName	Keegan Akin
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BAL
teamID	3

Rico Garcia (670329) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 18

All-history rows before 20260507: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_IP	0.100	0.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.867	1.000	-0.767	-0.900
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.056	1.000	-1.056	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 0.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	0.000	0.0000	0.5000	0.0000	0.0000	0.5000	1.2500	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	1.000	1.000	3.000	11.000	1.000	0.9643	0.4286	0.1071	0.1071	0.3214	1.1786	0.1071
season	0.20	18	17.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	19.000	1.000	0.5294	0.4118	0.0588	0.0588	0.3529	1.1177	0.0588

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3470
predicted_ER	0.0420
predicted_ERA	0.4434
predicted_H	0.0420
predicted_HR	0.0420
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0190
predicted_WHIP	0.4574

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3470	0.2256	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.0420	0.0273	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.4434	0.4434	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.0420	0.0273	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0420	0.0273	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	1.0000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.0190	0.6623	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.4574	0.4574	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	9

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.53
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_BAL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	670329
playerID	670329
playerName	Rico Garcia
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BAL
teamID	3

Lou Trivino (642152) · PITCHER · Reliever · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 1

All-history rows before 20260507: 1

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	6.000	6.000	-5.000	-5.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.200	0.200	1.000	1.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP
last_5	0.45	1	0.200	6.000	4.000	3.000	81.0000	10.5000	9.0000	6.0000	4.5000
last_10	0.35	1	0.200	6.000	4.000	3.000	81.0000	10.5000	9.0000	6.0000	4.5000
season	0.20	1	0.200	6.000	4.000	3.000	81.0000	10.5000	9.0000	6.0000	4.5000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	3.0000
predicted_ER	6.0000
predicted_ERA	81.0000
predicted_H	4.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.0000
predicted_WHIP	10.5000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	3.0000	2.3000	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	6.0000	4.2500	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	81.0000	81.0000	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	4.0000	2.6000	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	0.2000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.0000	0.3500	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	10.5000	10.5000	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	9
Pitching_ER	6
Pitching_ERA	81.00
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	31
Pitching_R	6
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	15
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_BAL@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	642152
playerID	642152
playerName	Lou Trivino
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BAL
teamID	3

Home Team: MIA

Esteury Ruiz (665923) · BATTER · RF · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 4

All-history rows before 20260507: 4

System season_avg: 0.2860

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2857

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.500	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	4.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.286	0.250	-0.286	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.880	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.440	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.286	0.250	-0.286	-0.250
predicted_R	0.750	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.750	1.000	-0.750	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.660	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.750	2.000	-0.750	-2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.786	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.786	1.000	-0.786	-1.000
predicted_SO	1.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.500	2.000	-0.500	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.286	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.880	-
predicted_HR	0.440	-
predicted_OBP	0.286	-
predicted_R	0.750	-
predicted_RBI	0.660	-
predicted_SLG	0.786	-
predicted_SO	1.500	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.500	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.286	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.958	0.078
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.479	0.039
predicted_OBP	0.286	-0.000
predicted_R	0.750	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.719	0.058
predicted_SLG	0.786	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.500	0.000

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.274 HR/AB=0.137

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	-1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 4

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	4	-	14.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	6.000	0.2857	0.2857	0.7857	0.2857	0.1429	0.2143	0.4286
last_10	0.35	4	-	14.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	6.000	0.2857	0.2857	0.7857	0.2857	0.1429	0.2143	0.4286
season	0.20	4	-	14.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	6.000	0.2857	0.2857	0.7857	0.2857	0.1429	0.2143	0.4286

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2500
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.5000
predicted_AVG	0.2857
predicted_BB	0.0000
predicted_H	1.0000
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.5000
predicted_OBP	0.2857
predicted_R	0.7500
predicted_RBI	0.7500
predicted_SLG	0.7857
predicted_SO	1.5000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.2500	0.2500	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5000	3.5000	3.5000	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2860	0.2857	0.2858	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8800	1.0000	0.9580	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.4400	0.5000	0.4790	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2860	0.2857	0.2858	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7500	0.7500	0.7500	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6600	0.7500	0.7185	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.7860	0.7857	0.7858	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.5000	1.5000	1.5000	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	4
Season rows before report date	4
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	4
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.286

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260503_PHI@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	665923
playerID	665923
playerName	Esteury Ruiz
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	MIA
teamID	15

Liam Hicks (689414) · BATTER · C · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 28

All-history rows before 20260507: 28

System season_avg: 0.3370

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3366

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.107	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.107	0.000	-0.107	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.607	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.607	3.000	0.393	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.339	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.337	0.333	-0.337	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.321	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.321	1.000	-0.321	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.214	1.000	-1.214	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.407	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.388	0.500	-0.388	-0.500
predicted_R	0.643	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.643	0.000	-0.643	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.940	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	1.143	0.000	-1.143	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.036	0.000	-0.036	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.596	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.604	0.333	-0.604	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.321	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.321	0.000	-0.321	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.107	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.607	-
predicted_AVG	0.339	-
predicted_BB	0.321	-
predicted_H	1.130	-
predicted_HR	0.280	-
predicted_OBP	0.407	-
predicted_R	0.643	-
predicted_RBI	0.940	-
predicted_SLG	0.596	-
predicted_SO	0.321	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.050	-0.057
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.499	-0.108
predicted_AVG	0.339	0.000
predicted_BB	0.445	0.124
predicted_H	1.155	0.025
predicted_HBP	0.014	-
predicted_HR	0.284	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.407	0.000
predicted_R	0.479	-0.164
predicted_RBI	0.961	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.596	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.468	0.147

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.61), rates preserved: AVG=0.320 HR/AB=0.079

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	6.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	0.3529	0.4286	0.5294	0.3529	0.0588	0.2353	0.1765	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	11.000	0.000	4.000	11.000	5.000	5.000	6.000	0.3235	0.3902	0.6765	0.3235	0.1177	0.3235	0.1471	0.1765
season	0.20	28	-	101.000	34.000	3.000	8.000	32.000	18.000	9.000	9.000	0.3366	0.3879	0.6040	0.3366	0.0792	0.3168	0.0891	0.0891

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0200
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.4410
predicted_AVG	0.3393
predicted_BB	0.5120
predicted_H	1.1680
predicted_HBP	0.0140
predicted_HR	0.2870
predicted_OBP	0.4070
predicted_R	0.3910
predicted_RBI	0.9720
predicted_SLG	0.5958
predicted_SO	0.5470

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1070	0.0200	0.0504	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6070	3.4410	3.4991	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3390	0.3393	0.3392	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3210	0.5120	0.4452	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1300	1.1680	1.1547	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0140	0.0140	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2800	0.2870	0.2845	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4070	0.4070	0.4070	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6430	0.3910	0.4792	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.9400	0.9720	0.9608	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5960	0.5958	0.5959	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3210	0.5470	0.4679	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.337

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B-C
gameID	20260506_BAL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	689414
playerID	689414
playerName	Liam Hicks
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	MIA
teamID	15

Connor Norby (681393) · BATTER · 1B · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 32

All-history rows before 20260507: 32

System season_avg: 0.2260

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2264

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.188	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.188	0.000	0.812	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.312	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.312	3.000	0.688	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.193	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.226	0.000	0.274	0.500
predicted_BB	0.406	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.406	1.000	-0.406	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_H	0.580	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.750	0.000	1.250	2.000
predicted_HR	0.050	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.094	0.000	0.906	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.339	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.336	0.250	0.164	0.250
predicted_R	0.250	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.250	1.000	0.750	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.270	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	0.344	0.000	1.656	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.292	1.500	1.500	Hitting_SLG	0.368	0.000	1.132	1.500
predicted_SO	1.281	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.281	3.000	-1.281	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.188	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.312	-
predicted_AVG	0.193	-
predicted_BB	0.406	-
predicted_H	0.580	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.339	-
predicted_R	0.250	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.292	-
predicted_SO	1.281	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.172	-0.016
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.276	-0.036
predicted_AVG	0.193	0.000
predicted_BB	0.507	0.101
predicted_H	0.613	0.033
predicted_HBP	0.157	-
predicted_HR	0.052	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.339	-0.000
predicted_R	0.224	-0.026
predicted_RBI	0.287	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.292	0.000
predicted_SO	1.709	0.428

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.31), rates preserved: AVG=0.185 HR/AB=0.016

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	12.000	0.1875	0.3500	0.2500	0.1875	0.0000	0.0625	0.1875	0.7500
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	6.000	17.000	0.1818	0.3250	0.3030	0.1818	0.0303	0.1212	0.1818	0.5151
season	0.20	32	-	106.000	24.000	6.000	3.000	11.000	8.000	13.000	41.000	0.2264	0.3360	0.3679	0.2264	0.0283	0.1038	0.1226	0.3868

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1630
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.2570
predicted_AVG	0.1933
predicted_BB	0.5620
predicted_H	0.6300
predicted_HBP	0.1570
predicted_HR	0.0530
predicted_OBP	0.3385
predicted_R	0.2100
predicted_RBI	0.2970
predicted_SLG	0.2921
predicted_SO	1.9390

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1880	0.1630	0.1718	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3120	3.2570	3.2763	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1930	0.1933	0.1932	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4060	0.5620	0.5074	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5800	0.6300	0.6125	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1570	0.1570	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0530	0.0519	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3390	0.3385	0.3387	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2500	0.2100	0.2240	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.2970	0.2875	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2920	0.2921	0.2921	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2810	1.9390	1.7087	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.226

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B-1B
gameID	20260506_BAL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	681393
playerID	681393
playerName	Connor Norby
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	MIA
teamID	15

Otto Lopez (672640) · BATTER · SS · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 35

All-history rows before 20260507: 35

System season_avg: 0.3330

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3333

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.229	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.229	0.000	-0.229	0.000
predicted_3B	0.057	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.057	0.000	-0.057	0.000
predicted_AB	4.029	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.029	5.000	-0.029	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.362	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.333	0.200	-0.083	0.050
predicted_BB	0.171	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.171	0.000	-0.171	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.057	0.000	-0.057	0.000
predicted_H	1.370	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.343	1.000	-0.343	0.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.114	1.000	-0.114	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.369	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.367	0.200	-0.117	0.050
predicted_R	0.686	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.686	1.000	0.314	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.457	1.000	-0.457	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.522	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.504	0.800	-0.254	-0.550
predicted_SO	0.800	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.800	0.000	-0.800	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.229	-
predicted_3B	0.057	-
predicted_AB	4.029	-
predicted_AVG	0.362	-
predicted_BB	0.171	-
predicted_H	1.370	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.369	-
predicted_R	0.686	-
predicted_RBI	0.500	-
predicted_SLG	0.522	-
predicted_SO	0.800	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.237	0.008
predicted_3B	0.028	-0.029
predicted_AB	4.280	0.252
predicted_AVG	0.362	0.000
predicted_BB	0.085	-0.086
predicted_H	1.519	0.149
predicted_HBP	0.013	-
predicted_HR	0.141	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.369	-0.000
predicted_R	0.677	-0.009
predicted_RBI	0.556	0.056
predicted_SLG	0.522	0.000
predicted_SO	0.712	-0.088

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.28), rates preserved: AVG=0.355 HR/AB=0.033

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 4.029

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	23.000	9.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	0.000	2.000	0.3913	0.3913	0.5652	0.3913	0.0435	0.1739	0.0000	0.0870
last_10	0.35	10	-	44.000	15.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	5.000	0.000	9.000	0.3409	0.3409	0.4773	0.3409	0.0227	0.0909	0.0000	0.2046
season	0.20	35	-	141.000	47.000	8.000	2.000	4.000	16.000	24.000	6.000	28.000	0.3333	0.3667	0.5035	0.3333	0.0284	0.1135	0.0425	0.1986

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2420
predicted_3B	0.0130
predicted_AB	4.4160
predicted_AVG	0.3621
predicted_BB	0.0380
predicted_H	1.5990
predicted_HBP	0.0130
predicted_HR	0.1470
predicted_OBP	0.3687
predicted_R	0.6720
predicted_RBI	0.5860
predicted_SLG	0.5221
predicted_SO	0.6640

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2290	0.2420	0.2374	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0570	0.0130	0.0284	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0290	4.4160	4.2805	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3620	0.3621	0.3621	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1710	0.0380	0.0846	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.3700	1.5990	1.5189	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0130	0.0130	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1470	0.1411	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3690	0.3687	0.3688	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6860	0.6720	0.6769	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5000	0.5860	0.5559	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5220	0.5221	0.5221	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8000	0.6640	0.7116	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.333

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260505_BAL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	672640
playerID	672640
playerName	Otto Lopez
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	MIA
teamID	15

Jakob Marsee (805300) · BATTER · CF · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 35

All-history rows before 20260507: 35

System season_avg: 0.1750

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1752

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.114	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.114	1.000	-0.114	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.057	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.057	0.000	-0.057	0.000
predicted_AB	3.914	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.914	4.000	0.086	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.179	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.175	0.250	-0.175	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.600	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.600	0.000	-0.600	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.057	0.000	-0.057	0.000
predicted_H	0.600	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.686	1.000	-0.686	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.265	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.292	0.250	-0.292	-0.250
predicted_R	0.571	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.571	1.000	-0.571	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.257	2.000	-0.257	-2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.242	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.255	0.500	-0.255	-0.500
predicted_SO	1.200	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.200	0.000	-0.200	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.114	-
predicted_3B	0.057	-
predicted_AB	3.914	-
predicted_AVG	0.179	-
predicted_BB	0.600	-
predicted_H	0.600	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.265	-
predicted_R	0.571	-
predicted_RBI	0.240	-
predicted_SLG	0.242	-
predicted_SO	1.200	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.181	0.067
predicted_3B	0.028	-0.029
predicted_AB	4.063	0.149
predicted_AVG	0.179	0.000
predicted_BB	0.520	-0.080
predicted_H	0.692	0.092
predicted_HBP	0.012	-
predicted_HR	0.004	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.265	0.000
predicted_R	0.484	-0.087
predicted_RBI	0.280	0.040
predicted_SLG	0.242	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.451	0.251

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.06), rates preserved: AVG=0.170 HR/AB=0.001

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.914

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	8.000	0.1905	0.2609	0.2381	0.1905	0.0000	0.0952	0.0952	0.3810
last_10	0.35	10	-	42.000	7.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	5.000	18.000	0.1667	0.2553	0.2381	0.1667	0.0000	0.0476	0.1191	0.4286
season	0.20	35	-	137.000	24.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	9.000	20.000	21.000	42.000	0.1752	0.2919	0.2555	0.1752	0.0073	0.0657	0.1533	0.3066

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2170
predicted_3B	0.0120
predicted_AB	4.1430
predicted_AVG	0.1791
predicted_BB	0.4770
predicted_H	0.7420
predicted_HBP	0.0120
predicted_HR	0.0060
predicted_OBP	0.2651
predicted_R	0.4370
predicted_RBI	0.3010
predicted_SLG	0.2416
predicted_SO	1.5860

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1140	0.2170	0.1809	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0570	0.0120	0.0278	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9140	4.1430	4.0629	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1790	0.1791	0.1791	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6000	0.4770	0.5201	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6000	0.7420	0.6923	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0120	0.0120	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0060	0.0039	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2650	0.2651	0.2651	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5710	0.4370	0.4839	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2400	0.3010	0.2796	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2420	0.2416	0.2417	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2000	1.5860	1.4509	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.175

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260506_BAL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	805300
playerID	805300
playerName	Jakob Marsee
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	MIA
teamID	15

Javier Sanoja (691594) · BATTER · 3B · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 19

All-history rows before 20260507: 19

System season_avg: 0.3030

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3030

Diff (system - data): -0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.211	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.211	0.000	-0.211	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.474	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.474	4.000	-0.474	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.191	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.303	0.250	-0.303	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.263	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.263	0.000	-0.263	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_H	0.540	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.053	1.000	-1.053	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.275	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.352	0.250	-0.352	-0.250
predicted_R	0.105	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.105	0.000	-0.105	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.368	0.000	-0.368	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.105	0.000	-0.105	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.242	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.364	0.250	-0.364	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.579	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.579	1.000	0.421	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.211	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.474	-
predicted_AVG	0.191	-
predicted_BB	0.263	-
predicted_H	0.540	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.275	-
predicted_R	0.105	-
predicted_RBI	0.060	-
predicted_SLG	0.242	-
predicted_SO	0.579	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	-0.029
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.354	-0.120
predicted_AVG	0.191	0.000
predicted_BB	0.335	0.072
predicted_H	0.598	0.058
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.275	-0.000
predicted_R	0.132	0.027
predicted_RBI	0.067	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.242	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.711	0.132

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.47), rates preserved: AVG=0.172 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	0.1250	0.2222	0.1875	0.1250	0.0000	0.1250	0.3125
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	6.000	0.2121	0.2973	0.2424	0.2121	0.0000	0.1212	0.1818
season	0.20	19	-	66.000	20.000	4.000	7.000	2.000	5.000	11.000	0.3030	0.3521	0.3636	0.3030	0.1061	0.0758	0.1667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1670
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.2900
predicted_AVG	0.1911
predicted_BB	0.3740
predicted_H	0.6290
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.2745
predicted_R	0.1470
predicted_RBI	0.0700
predicted_SLG	0.2419
predicted_SO	0.7820

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2110	0.1670	0.1824	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4740	3.2900	3.3544	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1910	0.1911	0.1911	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2630	0.3740	0.3352	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5400	0.6290	0.5978	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2750	0.2745	0.2747	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1050	0.1470	0.1323	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0600	0.0700	0.0665	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2420	0.2419	0.2419	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5790	0.7820	0.7110	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.303

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS-3B
gameID	20260506_BAL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	691594
playerID	691594
playerName	Javier Sanoja
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	MIA
teamID	15

Christopher Morel (666624) · BATTER · DH · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 5

All-history rows before 20260507: 5

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.200	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.200	3.000	0.800	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.250	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.000	0.000	0.250
predicted_BB	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.400	1.000	-0.400	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.730	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.800	0.000	0.200	1.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.368	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.368	0.250	-0.118	0.000
predicted_R	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.250	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.250	0.000	0.000	0.250
predicted_SO	1.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.200	1.000	-1.200	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.200	-
predicted_AVG	0.250	-
predicted_BB	0.400	-
predicted_H	0.730	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.368	-
predicted_R	0.200	-
predicted_RBI	0.000	-
predicted_SLG	0.250	-
predicted_SO	1.200	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.200	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.250	0.000
predicted_BB	0.400	0.000
predicted_H	0.775	0.045
predicted_HBP	0.200	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.368	0.000
predicted_R	0.200	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.250	0.000
predicted_SO	1.200	0.000

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.20), rates preserved: AVG=0.242 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 5

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	0.2500	0.3684	0.2500	0.2500	0.1250	0.3750
last_10	0.35	5	-	16.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	0.2500	0.3684	0.2500	0.2500	0.1250	0.3750
season	0.20	5	-	16.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	0.2500	0.3684	0.2500	0.2500	0.1250	0.3750

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.2000
predicted_AVG	0.2500
predicted_BB	0.4000
predicted_H	0.8000
predicted_HBP	0.2000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.3684
predicted_R	0.2000
predicted_RBI	0.0000
predicted_SLG	0.2500
predicted_SO	1.2000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2000	3.2000	3.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2500	0.2500	0.2500	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4000	0.4000	0.4000	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7300	0.8000	0.7755	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.2000	0.2000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3680	0.3684	0.3683	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2500	0.2500	0.2500	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2000	1.2000	1.2000	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	5
Season rows before report date	5
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	5
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260506_BAL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	666624
playerID	666624
playerName	Christopher Morel
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	MIA
teamID	15

Leo Jiménez (677870) · BATTER · 2B · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 7

All-history rows before 20260507: 7

System season_avg: 0.2140

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2143

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.500	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	2.000	3.000	2.000	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.159	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.214	0.000	-0.214	0.000
predicted_BB	0.357	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.429	0.000	-0.429	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.260	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.429	0.000	-0.429	0.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.323	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.421	0.250	-0.421	-0.250
predicted_R	0.179	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.286	1.000	-0.286	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.159	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.214	0.000	-0.214	0.000
predicted_SO	0.536	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.429	1.000	1.571	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.159	-
predicted_BB	0.357	-
predicted_H	0.260	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.323	-
predicted_R	0.179	-
predicted_RBI	0.000	-
predicted_SLG	0.159	-
predicted_SO	0.536	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.353	-0.147
predicted_AVG	0.159	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.362	0.005
predicted_H	0.326	0.066
predicted_HBP	0.182	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.323	-0.000
predicted_R	0.181	0.002
predicted_RBI	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.159	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.543	0.007

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.130 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	11.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	0.0909	0.2857	0.0909	0.0909	0.1818	0.2727
last_10	0.35	6	-	14.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	0.2143	0.3529	0.2143	0.2143	0.1429	0.2143
season	0.20	6	-	14.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	0.2143	0.3529	0.2143	0.2143	0.1429	0.2143

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.2730
predicted_AVG	0.1588
predicted_BB	0.3650
predicted_H	0.3610
predicted_HBP	0.1820
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.3227
predicted_R	0.1820
predicted_RBI	0.0000
predicted_SLG	0.1588
predicted_SO	0.5470

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.5000	2.2730	2.3525	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1590	0.1588	0.1589	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3570	0.3650	0.3622	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.2600	0.3610	0.3256	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1820	0.1820	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3230	0.3227	0.3228	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1790	0.1820	0.1809	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1590	0.1588	0.1589	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5360	0.5470	0.5432	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.214

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B-2B
gameID	20260503_PHI@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	677870
playerID	677870
playerName	Leo Jiménez
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	MIA
teamID	15

Heriberto Hernández (681715) · BATTER · LF · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 16

All-history rows before 20260507: 16

System season_avg: 0.1580

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1579

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.062	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_AB	3.562	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.562	2.000	-0.562	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.158	0.000	-0.158	0.000
predicted_BB	0.438	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.438	1.000	0.562	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.450	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.562	0.000	-0.562	0.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.209	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.250	0.333	0.000	-0.083
predicted_R	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.340	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.438	0.000	-0.438	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.188	0.000	-0.188	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.147	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.193	0.000	-0.193	0.000
predicted_SO	0.750	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.750	1.000	0.250	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.062	-
predicted_AB	3.562	-
predicted_AVG	0.140	-
predicted_BB	0.438	-
predicted_H	0.450	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.209	-
predicted_R	0.250	-
predicted_RBI	0.340	-
predicted_SLG	0.147	-
predicted_SO	0.750	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.030	-0.032
predicted_AB	3.582	0.020
predicted_AVG	0.140	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.360	-0.078
predicted_H	0.484	0.034
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.209	-0.000
predicted_R	0.224	-0.026
predicted_RBI	0.361	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.147	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.799	0.049

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.58), rates preserved: AVG=0.135 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	0.1111	0.1579	0.1111	0.1111	0.1111	0.0556	0.2222
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	6.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	4.000	9.000	0.1667	0.2500	0.1667	0.1667	0.0833	0.1111	0.2500
season	0.20	16	-	57.000	9.000	1.000	7.000	4.000	7.000	12.000	0.1579	0.2500	0.1930	0.1579	0.1228	0.1228	0.2105

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0130
predicted_AB	3.5920
predicted_AVG	0.1399
predicted_BB	0.3180
predicted_H	0.5030
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.2086
predicted_R	0.2100
predicted_RBI	0.3730
predicted_SLG	0.1469
predicted_SO	0.8250

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0620	0.0130	0.0301	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5620	3.5920	3.5815	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1400	0.1399	0.1399	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4380	0.3180	0.3600	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4500	0.5030	0.4845	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2090	0.2086	0.2087	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2500	0.2100	0.2240	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3400	0.3730	0.3614	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1470	0.1469	0.1469	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7500	0.8250	0.7987	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.158

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260426_MIA@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	681715
playerID	681715
playerName	Heriberto Hernández
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	MIA
teamID	15

Max Meyer (676974) · PITCHER · Starter · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 7

All-history rows before 20260507: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.571	0.000	-0.571	1.000
predicted_IP	4.200	4.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.186	7.000	-0.986	-2.800
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	-	Pitching_SO	5.714	7.000	-0.714	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 4.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	27.100	6.000	17.000	8.000	29.000	1.000	1.9756	0.9146	0.2195	0.6220	0.2927	1.0610	0.0366
last_10	0.35	7	37.000	11.000	25.000	13.000	40.000	2.000	2.6757	1.0270	0.2973	0.6757	0.3513	1.0811	0.0541
season	0.20	7	37.000	11.000	25.000	13.000	40.000	2.000	2.6757	1.0270	0.2973	0.6757	0.3513	1.0811	0.0541

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.7330
predicted_ER	1.3990
predicted_ERA	2.3607
predicted_H	3.4750
predicted_HR	0.2460
predicted_IP	5.1000
predicted_SO	5.7180
predicted_WHIP	0.9764

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	1.7330	1.8265	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	1.3990	1.2593	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.3607	2.3607	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	3.4750	3.3087	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.2460	0.5099	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.2000	5.1000	5.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	5.7180	5.4667	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9764	0.9764	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.2
H	3
R	1
ER	1
BB	2
SO	5
HR	1
BF	21
Pitches	90

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	22
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.68
Pitching_Flyouts	4
Pitching_Groundouts	9
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	7.0
Pitching_Pitches	83
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	7
Pitching_Strikes	55
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260502_PHI@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	676974
playerID	676974
playerName	Max Meyer
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	MIA
teamID	15

Andrew Nardi (677053) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 15

All-history rows before 20260507: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.667	2.000	2.333	1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.773	1.000	0.327	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.933	0.000	0.067	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	5.000	6.000	6.000	4.000	1.000	9.6429	2.5714	1.0714	1.2857	1.2857	0.8571	0.2143
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	8.000	12.000	6.000	8.000	2.000	7.2000	1.8000	0.8000	1.2000	0.6000	0.8000	0.2000
season	0.20	14	13.000	9.000	13.000	9.000	14.000	2.000	6.2308	1.6923	0.6923	1.0000	0.6923	1.0769	0.1538

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.9270
predicted_ER	0.9010
predicted_ERA	8.1055
predicted_H	1.1990
predicted_HR	0.1970
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8810
predicted_WHIP	2.1256

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.9270	0.9526	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	0.9010	1.6356	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	8.1055	8.1055	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	1.1990	1.8293	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1970	0.1280	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.0000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8810	0.9226	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	2.1256	2.1256	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	3
R	3
ER	3
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	7
Pitches	31

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	6.92
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	22
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_BAL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	677053
playerID	677053
playerName	Andrew Nardi
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIA
teamID	15

Tyler Phillips (663969) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 11

All-history rows before 20260507: 11

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.273	0.000	-0.273	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.855	3.000	-0.755	-1.900
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	2.000	3.000	-2.000	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	9.100	2.000	10.000	4.000	7.000	1.000	1.9286	1.5000	0.2143	1.0714	0.4286	0.7500	0.1071
last_10	0.35	10	19.100	3.000	16.000	12.000	20.000	1.000	1.3966	1.4483	0.1552	0.8276	0.6207	1.0345	0.0517
season	0.20	11	21.100	3.000	17.000	12.000	22.000	1.000	1.2656	1.3594	0.1406	0.7969	0.5625	1.0312	0.0469

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.0450
predicted_ER	0.3580
predicted_ERA	1.6098
predicted_H	1.8620
predicted_HR	0.1510
predicted_IP	2.0000
predicted_SO	1.8120
predicted_WHIP	1.4538

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	1.0450	0.6793	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3580	0.2327	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.6098	1.6098	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.8620	1.2103	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1510	0.0982	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	2.0000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.8120	1.1778	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4538	1.4538	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	13
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.27
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	3.0
Pitching_Pitches	47
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	35
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_PHI@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	663969
playerID	663969
playerName	Tyler Phillips
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIA
teamID	15

Calvin Faucher (676534) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 15

All-history rows before 20260507: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.773	1.000	0.227	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	3.000	3.6000	1.4000	0.4000	0.6000	0.8000	0.6000
last_10	0.35	10	8.200	3.000	6.000	8.000	8.000	3.1154	1.6154	0.3462	0.6923	0.9231	0.9231
season	0.20	15	13.000	6.000	9.000	12.000	15.000	4.1538	1.6154	0.4615	0.6923	0.9231	1.1539

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.8680
predicted_ER	0.3930
predicted_ERA	3.5412
predicted_H	0.6510
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8240
predicted_WHIP	1.5185

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.8680	0.9142	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3930	0.2555	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.5412	3.5412	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.6510	0.7732	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.8240	0.5356	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5185	1.5185	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.15
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_PHI@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	676534
playerID	676534
playerName	Calvin Faucher
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIA
teamID	15

John King (667463) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 17

All-history rows before 20260507: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.729	0.200	0.271	0.800
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.824	0.000	2.176	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	0.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.0000	0.2143	0.0000	0.2143	0.0000	0.4286	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	1.000	3.000	2.000	9.000	1.000	0.8438	0.4688	0.0938	0.2812	0.1875	0.8438	0.0938
season	0.20	17	15.200	1.000	3.000	5.000	14.000	1.000	0.5745	0.5106	0.0638	0.1915	0.3191	0.8936	0.0638

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1290
predicted_ER	0.0460
predicted_ERA	0.4102
predicted_H	0.2330
predicted_HR	0.0460
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.6670
predicted_WHIP	0.3626

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1290	0.0839	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.0460	0.0299	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.4102	0.4102	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.2330	0.1515	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0460	0.0299	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	0.6670	1.4835	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.3626	0.3626	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	3
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	2
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.57
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	10
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_PHI@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	667463
playerID	667463
playerName	John King
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIA
teamID	15

Anthony Bender (669622) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 16

All-history rows before 20260507: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.438	0.000	0.562	1.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.650	0.200	-0.450	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	0.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	0.0000	0.4615	0.0000	0.4615	0.0000	0.6923
last_10	0.35	10	8.200	3.000	6.000	3.000	9.000	3.1154	1.0385	0.3462	0.6923	0.3462	1.0385
season	0.20	16	13.200	7.000	11.000	8.000	16.000	4.6098	1.3902	0.5122	0.8049	0.5854	1.1707

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2380
predicted_ER	0.2240
predicted_ERA	2.0124
predicted_H	0.6110
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9090
predicted_WHIP	0.8492

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.2380	0.5047	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.2240	0.4956	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.0124	2.0124	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.6110	0.7471	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9090	0.9408	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.8492	0.8492	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	24

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	2
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.61
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	6
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	4
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_BAL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	669622
playerID	669622
playerName	Anthony Bender
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIA
teamID	15

20260507_CIN@CHC

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 6, "confidence": 0.58, "home_win_probability": 0.58, "away_win_probability": 0.42000000000000004, "predicted_score_text": "CIN 3 - 6 CHC", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to final winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "predicted_score_text": "CIN 4 - 5 CHC", "confidence": 0.58, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score", "final_prediction_synced": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "CIN 4 - 5 CHC", "winner": "CHC"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "CIN 3 - 6 CHC", "winner": "CHC"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": -1, "home_run_delta": 1, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"}}

Away Team: CIN

Blake Dunn (694362) · BATTER · RF · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 0

All-history rows before 20260507: 0

System season_avg: 0.0000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): -

Diff (system - data): -

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	-	-	-	-
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	-	-	-	-
predicted_AB	0.000	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	-	-	-	-
predicted_AVG	0.000	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	-	-	-	-
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	-	-	-	-
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	-	-	-	-
predicted_H	0.000	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	-	-	-	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	-	-	-	-
predicted_OBP	0.000	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	-	-	-	-
predicted_R	0.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	-	-	-	-
predicted_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	-	-	-	-
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	-	-	-	-
predicted_SLG	0.000	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	-	-	-	-
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	-	-	-	-

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw XGBoost model output

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	0.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.000	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.000	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.000	-
predicted_SLG	0.000	-
predicted_SO	0.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.473	2.473
predicted_AVG	0.000	0.000
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.000	0.000
predicted_R	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.000	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.47), rates preserved: AVG=0.000 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 0

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Total PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
last_10	0.35	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
season	0.20	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.8040
predicted_BB	0.0000
predicted_H	0.0000
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_R	0.0000
predicted_RBI	0.0000
predicted_SO	0.0000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	0.0000	3.8040	2.4726	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.0000	-	0.0000	model_only
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.0000	-	0.0000	model_only
predicted_R	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.0000	-	0.0000	model_only
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	0
Season rows before report date	0
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	0
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.0

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

No historical data found for this player before report date.

JJ Bleday (668709) · BATTER · LF · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 9

All-history rows before 20260507: 9

System season_avg: 0.3100

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3103

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.222	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.222	5.000	0.778	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.328	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.310	0.400	-0.310	-0.400
predicted_BB	0.556	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.556	0.000	-0.556	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.111	1.000	-0.111	-1.000
predicted_H	0.910	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.000	2.000	-1.000	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.444	0.000	-0.444	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.411	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.412	0.400	-0.412	-0.400
predicted_R	0.667	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.630	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.667	1.000	-0.667	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.800	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.759	0.400	-0.759	-0.400
predicted_SO	0.778	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.778	2.000	-0.778	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.222	-
predicted_AVG	0.328	-
predicted_BB	0.556	-
predicted_H	0.910	-
predicted_HR	0.400	-
predicted_OBP	0.411	-
predicted_R	0.667	-
predicted_RBI	0.630	-
predicted_SLG	0.800	-
predicted_SO	0.778	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.135	0.024
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.450	0.228
predicted_AVG	0.328	0.000
predicted_BB	0.519	-0.037
predicted_H	1.080	0.170
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.473	0.073
predicted_OBP	0.411	-0.000
predicted_R	0.759	0.092
predicted_RBI	0.746	0.116
predicted_SLG	0.800	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.894	0.116

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.45), rates preserved: AVG=0.313 HR/AB=0.137

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	7.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	5.000	2.000	6.000	0.3500	0.4091	0.8500	0.3500	0.1500	0.2500	0.1000	0.3000
last_10	0.35	9	-	29.000	9.000	1.000	4.000	6.000	6.000	5.000	7.000	0.3103	0.4118	0.7586	0.3103	0.1379	0.2069	0.1724	0.2414
season	0.20	9	-	29.000	9.000	1.000	4.000	6.000	6.000	5.000	7.000	0.3103	0.4118	0.7586	0.3103	0.1379	0.2069	0.1724	0.2414

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1480
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.5720
predicted_AVG	0.3282
predicted_BB	0.4990
predicted_H	1.1720
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.5120
predicted_OBP	0.4106
predicted_R	0.8080
predicted_RBI	0.8080
predicted_SLG	0.7997
predicted_SO	0.9560

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1110	0.1480	0.1351	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2220	3.5720	3.4495	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3280	0.3282	0.3281	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5560	0.4990	0.5190	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9100	1.1720	1.0803	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.4000	0.5120	0.4728	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4110	0.4106	0.4107	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6670	0.8080	0.7587	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6300	0.8080	0.7457	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.8000	0.7997	0.7998	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7780	0.9560	0.8937	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.31

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	1
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260506_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	668709
playerID	668709
playerName	JJ Bleday
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	CIN
teamID	7

Ke'Bryan Hayes (663647) · BATTER · 3B · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 28

All-history rows before 20260507: 28

System season_avg: 0.1210

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1209

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.036	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.036	0.000	-0.036	0.000
predicted_3B	0.036	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.036	0.000	-0.036	0.000
predicted_AB	3.250	2.000	2.000	Hitting_AB	3.250	4.000	-1.250	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.144	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.121	0.000	-0.121	0.000
predicted_BB	0.250	2.000	2.000	Hitting_BB	0.250	0.000	1.750	2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.380	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.393	0.000	-0.393	0.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.200	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.184	0.000	0.316	0.500
predicted_R	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.107	0.000	-0.107	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.329	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.220	0.000	-0.220	0.000
predicted_SO	0.571	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.571	1.000	0.429	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.036	-
predicted_3B	0.036	-
predicted_AB	3.250	-
predicted_AVG	0.144	-
predicted_BB	0.250	-
predicted_H	0.380	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.200	-
predicted_R	0.250	-
predicted_RBI	0.230	-
predicted_SLG	0.329	-
predicted_SO	0.571	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.041	0.005
predicted_3B	0.041	0.005
predicted_AB	3.409	0.159
predicted_AVG	0.144	0.000
predicted_BB	0.247	-0.003
predicted_H	0.461	0.081
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.158	0.028
predicted_OBP	0.200	-0.000
predicted_R	0.316	0.066
predicted_RBI	0.278	0.048
predicted_SLG	0.329	0.000
predicted_SO	0.791	0.220

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.41), rates preserved: AVG=0.135 HR/AB=0.046

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-1.000
BB	2.000	2.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.1111	0.1579	0.2778	0.1111	0.0556	0.1111	0.0556	0.2778
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	6.000	3.000	10.000	0.2000	0.2632	0.4571	0.2000	0.0571	0.0857	0.0857	0.2857
season	0.20	28	-	91.000	11.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	7.000	7.000	16.000	0.1209	0.1837	0.2198	0.1209	0.0220	0.0330	0.0769	0.1758

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0430
predicted_3B	0.0430
predicted_AB	3.4950
predicted_AVG	0.1442
predicted_BB	0.2460
predicted_H	0.5040
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1730
predicted_OBP	0.1999
predicted_R	0.3510
predicted_RBI	0.3030
predicted_SLG	0.3290
predicted_SO	0.9090

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0360	0.0430	0.0405	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0360	0.0430	0.0405	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2500	3.4950	3.4093	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1440	0.1442	0.1441	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2500	0.2460	0.2474	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3800	0.5040	0.4606	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1730	0.1579	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2000	0.1999	0.1999	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2500	0.3510	0.3156	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2300	0.3030	0.2775	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3290	0.3290	0.3290	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5710	0.9090	0.7907	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.121

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260505_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	663647
playerID	663647
playerName	Ke'Bryan Hayes
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	CIN
teamID	7

Elly De La Cruz (682829) · BATTER · DH · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 37

All-history rows before 20260507: 37

System season_avg: 0.2670

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2671

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.162	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.162	0.000	-0.162	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.946	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.946	4.000	0.054	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.238	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.267	0.000	-0.267	0.000
predicted_BB	0.459	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.459	0.000	0.541	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.081	0.000	-0.081	0.000
predicted_H	0.860	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.054	0.000	-1.054	0.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.270	0.000	-0.270	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.320	0.200	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.341	0.000	-0.141	0.200
predicted_R	0.730	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.730	0.000	-0.730	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.680	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.757	3.000	-0.757	-3.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.216	0.000	-0.216	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.351	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.514	0.000	-0.514	0.000
predicted_SO	1.270	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.270	2.000	-0.270	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.162	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.946	-
predicted_AVG	0.238	-
predicted_BB	0.459	-
predicted_H	0.860	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.320	-
predicted_R	0.730	-
predicted_RBI	0.680	-
predicted_SLG	0.351	-
predicted_SO	1.270	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.159	-0.003
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.789	-0.157
predicted_AVG	0.238	0.000
predicted_BB	0.488	0.029
predicted_H	0.876	0.016
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.084	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.320	-0.000
predicted_R	0.473	-0.257
predicted_RBI	0.693	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.351	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.280	0.010

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.95), rates preserved: AVG=0.222 HR/AB=0.021

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.946

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	0.2222	0.3182	0.2778	0.2222	0.0000	0.1667	0.1667	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	9.000	1.000	1.000	8.000	3.000	4.000	14.000	0.2432	0.3095	0.3514	0.2432	0.0270	0.2162	0.1081	0.3784
season	0.20	37	-	146.000	39.000	6.000	10.000	28.000	27.000	17.000	47.000	0.2671	0.3415	0.5137	0.2671	0.0685	0.1918	0.1164	0.3219

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1580
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7040
predicted_AVG	0.2385
predicted_BB	0.5040
predicted_H	0.8840
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0860
predicted_OBP	0.3198
predicted_R	0.3350
predicted_RBI	0.7000
predicted_SLG	0.3507
predicted_SO	1.2850

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1620	0.1580	0.1594	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9460	3.7040	3.7887	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2380	0.2385	0.2383	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4590	0.5040	0.4882	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8600	0.8840	0.8756	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0860	0.0839	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3200	0.3198	0.3199	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7300	0.3350	0.4733	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6800	0.7000	0.6930	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3510	0.3507	0.3508	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2700	1.2850	1.2797	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.267

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260506_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	682829
playerID	682829
playerName	Elly De La Cruz
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	CIN
teamID	7

Spencer Steer (668715) · BATTER · 1B · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 34

All-history rows before 20260507: 34

System season_avg: 0.2460

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2458

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.176	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.176	0.000	-0.176	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.471	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.471	5.000	-0.471	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.294	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.246	0.200	-0.246	-0.200
predicted_BB	0.294	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.294	0.000	0.706	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.930	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.853	1.000	-0.853	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.176	1.000	-0.176	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.328	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.318	0.200	-0.068	0.050
predicted_R	0.382	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.382	1.000	-0.382	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.353	1.000	-0.353	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.472	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.449	0.800	-0.449	-0.800
predicted_SO	0.971	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.971	1.000	-0.971	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.176	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.471	-
predicted_AVG	0.294	-
predicted_BB	0.294	-
predicted_H	0.930	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.328	-
predicted_R	0.382	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.472	-
predicted_SO	0.971	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.110	-0.066
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.632	0.161
predicted_AVG	0.294	0.000
predicted_BB	0.217	-0.077
predicted_H	1.037	0.107
predicted_HBP	0.019	-
predicted_HR	0.187	0.017
predicted_OBP	0.328	-0.000
predicted_R	0.314	-0.068
predicted_RBI	0.439	0.049
predicted_SLG	0.472	0.000
predicted_SO	0.838	-0.133

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.63), rates preserved: AVG=0.285 HR/AB=0.051

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, BvP AVG=0.500)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	6.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	0.3000	0.3000	0.4500	0.3000	0.0500	0.1000	0.0000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	11.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	3.000	3.000	6.000	0.3143	0.3684	0.5143	0.3143	0.0571	0.1714	0.0857	0.1714
season	0.20	34	-	118.000	29.000	6.000	6.000	12.000	13.000	10.000	33.000	0.2458	0.3182	0.4492	0.2458	0.0508	0.1017	0.0848	0.2797

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0750
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7190
predicted_AVG	0.2942
predicted_BB	0.1750
predicted_H	1.0940
predicted_HBP	0.0190
predicted_HR	0.1960
predicted_OBP	0.3276
predicted_R	0.2770
predicted_RBI	0.4660
predicted_SLG	0.4723
predicted_SO	0.7660

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1760	0.0750	0.1104	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4710	3.7190	3.6322	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2940	0.2942	0.2941	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2940	0.1750	0.2166	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9300	1.0940	1.0366	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0190	0.0190	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.1960	0.1869	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3280	0.3276	0.3277	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3820	0.2770	0.3137	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.4660	0.4394	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4720	0.4723	0.4722	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9710	0.7660	0.8377	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.246

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260506_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	668715
playerID	668715
playerName	Spencer Steer
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	CIN
teamID	7

Dane Myers (667472) · BATTER · CF · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 7

All-history rows before 20260507: 7

System season_avg: 0.2610

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2609

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.286	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.286	3.000	0.714	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.284	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.261	0.667	-0.011	-0.417
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.880	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.857	2.000	0.143	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.473	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.433	0.750	-0.033	-0.350
predicted_R	1.286	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	1.286	3.000	-0.286	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.160	3.000	3.000	Hitting_RBI	0.143	0.000	2.857	3.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.143	1.000	-0.143	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.440	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.391	0.667	0.109	-0.167
predicted_SO	0.714	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.714	0.000	1.286	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.286	-
predicted_AVG	0.284	-
predicted_BB	1.000	-
predicted_H	0.880	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.473	-
predicted_R	1.286	-
predicted_RBI	0.160	-
predicted_SLG	0.440	-
predicted_SO	0.714	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.261	-0.025
predicted_AVG	0.284	0.000
predicted_BB	1.119	0.119
predicted_H	0.908	0.028
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.166	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.473	0.000
predicted_R	1.439	0.153
predicted_RBI	0.166	0.006
predicted_SLG	0.440	0.000
predicted_SO	0.680	-0.034

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.29), rates preserved: AVG=0.276 HR/AB=0.050

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	3.000	3.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	9.000	7.000	3.000	0.3125	0.5217	0.5000	0.3125	0.0625	0.0625	0.4375	0.1875
last_10	0.35	7	-	23.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	9.000	7.000	5.000	0.2609	0.4333	0.3913	0.2609	0.0435	0.0435	0.3044	0.2174
season	0.20	7	-	23.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	9.000	7.000	5.000	0.2609	0.4333	0.3913	0.2609	0.0435	0.0435	0.3044	0.2174

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.2470
predicted_AVG	0.2841
predicted_BB	1.1830
predicted_H	0.9230
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1690
predicted_OBP	0.4731
predicted_R	1.5210
predicted_RBI	0.1690
predicted_SLG	0.4402
predicted_SO	0.6620

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2860	3.2470	3.2607	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2840	0.2841	0.2841	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	1.0000	1.1830	1.1189	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8800	0.9230	0.9080	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.1690	0.1658	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4730	0.4731	0.4731	model_form_blend
predicted_R	1.2860	1.5210	1.4387	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1600	0.1690	0.1658	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4400	0.4402	0.4401	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7140	0.6620	0.6802	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	3
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.261

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	3
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260428_COL@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	667472
playerID	667472
playerName	Dane Myers
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	CIN
teamID	7

Matt McLain (680574) · BATTER · SS · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 33

All-history rows before 20260507: 33

System season_avg: 0.2030

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2031

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.879	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.879	3.000	1.121	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.155	0.400	0.400	Hitting_AVG	0.203	0.667	0.197	-0.267
predicted_BB	0.515	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.515	0.000	-0.515	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.061	0.000	-0.061	0.000
predicted_H	0.550	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.788	2.000	1.212	0.000
predicted_HR	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.091	1.000	-0.091	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.197	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.306	0.667	0.094	-0.267
predicted_R	0.455	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.455	2.000	0.545	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.340	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.303	1.000	-0.303	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.121	0.000	-0.121	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.346	0.400	0.400	Hitting_SLG	0.320	1.667	0.080	-1.267
predicted_SO	1.091	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.091	0.000	-1.091	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.879	-
predicted_AVG	0.155	-
predicted_BB	0.515	-
predicted_H	0.550	-
predicted_HR	0.200	-
predicted_OBP	0.197	-
predicted_R	0.455	-
predicted_RBI	0.340	-
predicted_SLG	0.346	-
predicted_SO	1.091	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.109	-0.073
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.780	-0.099
predicted_AVG	0.155	0.000
predicted_BB	0.311	-0.204
predicted_H	0.568	0.018
predicted_HBP	0.012	-
predicted_HR	0.209	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.197	-0.000
predicted_R	0.449	-0.007
predicted_RBI	0.351	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.346	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.923	-0.168

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.88), rates preserved: AVG=0.146 HR/AB=0.054

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.879

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	0.1111	0.1111	0.2778	0.1111	0.0556	0.0556	0.0000	0.1667
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	7.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	5.000	3.000	10.000	0.1842	0.2439	0.4474	0.1842	0.0790	0.1579	0.0790	0.2632
season	0.20	33	-	128.000	26.000	6.000	3.000	10.000	15.000	17.000	36.000	0.2031	0.3061	0.3203	0.2031	0.0234	0.0781	0.1328	0.2812

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0690
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7260
predicted_AVG	0.1551
predicted_BB	0.2020
predicted_H	0.5780
predicted_HBP	0.0120
predicted_HR	0.2140
predicted_OBP	0.1966
predicted_R	0.4450
predicted_RBI	0.3570
predicted_SLG	0.3457
predicted_SO	0.8320

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1820	0.0690	0.1086	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8790	3.7260	3.7795	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1550	0.1551	0.1551	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5150	0.2020	0.3115	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5500	0.5780	0.5682	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0120	0.0120	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2000	0.2140	0.2091	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1970	0.1966	0.1967	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4550	0.4450	0.4485	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3400	0.3570	0.3510	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3460	0.3457	0.3458	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0910	0.8320	0.9226	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.203

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	1
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260506_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	680574
playerID	680574
playerName	Matt McLain
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	CIN
teamID	7

Sal Stewart (701398) · BATTER · 2B · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 37

All-history rows before 20260507: 37

System season_avg: 0.2450

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2446

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.162	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.162	0.000	-0.162	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.757	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.757	4.000	0.243	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.127	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.245	0.000	-0.245	0.000
predicted_BB	0.514	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.514	1.000	-0.514	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.440	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.919	0.000	-0.919	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.243	0.000	-0.243	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.178	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.331	0.200	-0.331	-0.200
predicted_R	0.541	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.541	0.000	-0.541	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.784	0.000	-0.784	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.189	0.000	-0.189	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.183	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.482	0.000	-0.482	0.000
predicted_SO	0.784	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.784	0.000	-0.784	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.162	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.757	-
predicted_AVG	0.127	-
predicted_BB	0.514	-
predicted_H	0.440	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.178	-
predicted_R	0.541	-
predicted_RBI	0.140	-
predicted_SLG	0.183	-
predicted_SO	0.784	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.102	-0.060
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.942	0.185
predicted_AVG	0.127	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.354	-0.160
predicted_H	0.487	0.047
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.048	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.178	-0.000
predicted_R	0.311	-0.230
predicted_RBI	0.159	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.183	0.000
predicted_SO	0.850	0.066

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.94), rates preserved: AVG=0.124 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	0.0952	0.1364	0.0952	0.0952	0.0000	0.0000	0.0476	0.2381
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	8.000	0.1000	0.1429	0.1250	0.1000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0500	0.2000
season	0.20	37	-	139.000	34.000	6.000	9.000	29.000	20.000	19.000	29.000	0.2446	0.3312	0.4820	0.2446	0.0648	0.2086	0.1367	0.2086

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0700
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.0410
predicted_AVG	0.1268
predicted_BB	0.2680
predicted_H	0.5120
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0520
predicted_OBP	0.1776
predicted_R	0.1870
predicted_RBI	0.1690
predicted_SLG	0.1830
predicted_SO	0.8850

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1620	0.0700	0.1022	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7570	4.0410	3.9416	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1270	0.1268	0.1269	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5140	0.2680	0.3541	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4400	0.5120	0.4868	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0520	0.0478	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1780	0.1776	0.1777	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5410	0.1870	0.3109	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1400	0.1690	0.1589	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1830	0.1830	0.1830	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7840	0.8850	0.8497	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.245

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260506_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	701398
playerID	701398
playerName	Sal Stewart
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	CIN
teamID	7

Tyler Stephenson (663886) · BATTER · C · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 26

All-history rows before 20260507: 26

System season_avg: 0.1880

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1882

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.115	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.115	0.000	-0.115	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.269	2.000	2.000	Hitting_AB	3.269	3.000	-1.269	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.231	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.188	0.333	-0.188	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.500	2.000	2.000	Hitting_BB	0.500	1.000	1.500	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.660	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.615	1.000	-0.615	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.297	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.293	0.500	0.207	0.000
predicted_R	0.154	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.231	0.000	-0.231	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.331	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.294	0.333	-0.294	-0.333
predicted_SO	1.115	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.115	1.000	-0.115	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.115	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.269	-
predicted_AVG	0.231	-
predicted_BB	0.500	-
predicted_H	0.660	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.297	-
predicted_R	0.154	-
predicted_RBI	0.070	-
predicted_SLG	0.331	-
predicted_SO	1.115	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.238	0.123
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.441	0.172
predicted_AVG	0.231	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.392	-0.108
predicted_H	0.761	0.101
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.015	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.297	-0.000
predicted_R	0.155	0.001
predicted_RBI	0.079	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.331	0.000
predicted_SO	1.102	-0.013

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.44), rates preserved: AVG=0.221 HR/AB=0.004

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-1.000
BB	2.000	2.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 26

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.2778	0.3158	0.3889	0.2778	0.0000	0.0000	0.0556	0.2778
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	7.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	12.000	0.1944	0.2750	0.2778	0.1944	0.0000	0.0278	0.1111	0.3333
season	0.20	26	-	85.000	16.000	3.000	2.000	6.000	4.000	13.000	29.000	0.1882	0.2929	0.2941	0.1882	0.0235	0.0706	0.1529	0.3412

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3050
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.5340
predicted_AVG	0.2307
predicted_BB	0.3340
predicted_H	0.8150
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0170
predicted_OBP	0.2969
predicted_R	0.1560
predicted_RBI	0.0840
predicted_SLG	0.3311
predicted_SO	1.0950

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1150	0.3050	0.2385	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2690	3.5340	3.4413	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2310	0.2307	0.2308	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5000	0.3340	0.3921	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6600	0.8150	0.7607	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0170	0.0146	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2970	0.2969	0.2969	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1540	0.1560	0.1553	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0700	0.0840	0.0791	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3310	0.3311	0.3311	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1150	1.0950	1.1020	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	26
Season rows before report date	26
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	26
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.188

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260505_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	663886
playerID	663886
playerName	Tyler Stephenson
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	CIN
teamID	7

Rhett Lowder (695076) · PITCHER · Starter · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 7

All-history rows before 20260507: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_ER	2.857	8.000	0.143	-5.000
predicted_IP	4.200	4.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.914	1.100	-0.714	3.100
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	-	Pitching_SO	3.714	1.000	0.286	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 4.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	24.100	18.000	29.000	10.000	17.000	0.000	6.6575	1.6027	0.7397	1.1918	0.4110	0.6986	0.0000
last_10	0.35	7	35.100	20.000	35.000	14.000	26.000	1.000	5.0943	1.3868	0.5660	0.9906	0.3962	0.7359	0.0283
season	0.20	7	35.100	20.000	35.000	14.000	26.000	1.000	5.0943	1.3868	0.5660	0.9906	0.3962	0.7359	0.0283

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.0140
predicted_ER	3.2210
predicted_ERA	5.7977
predicted_H	5.4060
predicted_HR	0.0780
predicted_IP	5.0000
predicted_SO	3.5960
predicted_WHIP	1.4840

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	2.0140	1.6591	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	3.2210	3.1437	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.7977	5.7977	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	5.4060	4.5639	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	2.0000	0.0780	0.7507	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.2000	5.0000	5.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	4.0000	3.5960	3.7374	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4840	1.4840	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.2
H	3
R	3
ER	3
BB	1
SO	4
HR	2
BF	19
Pitches	82

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	4
Pitching_Balk	1
Pitching_Batters Faced	13
Pitching_ER	8
Pitching_ERA	5.09
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	5
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	52
Pitching_R	8
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	25
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260502_CIN@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	695076
playerID	695076
playerName	Rhett Lowder
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	CIN
teamID	7

Graham Ashcraft (668933) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 18

All-history rows before 20260507: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.222	2.000	-0.222	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.972	1.000	0.128	0.100
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.111	1.000	0.889	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	2.000	5.000	5.000	6.000	1.000	3.1765	1.7647	0.3529	0.8823	0.8823	1.0588	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	2.000	7.000	9.000	9.000	1.000	1.6875	1.5000	0.1875	0.6562	0.8438	0.8438	0.0938
season	0.20	18	18.200	4.000	13.000	12.000	20.000	1.000	1.9286	1.3393	0.2143	0.6964	0.6429	1.0714	0.0536

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.8210
predicted_ER	0.2670
predicted_ERA	2.4058
predicted_H	0.7660
predicted_HR	0.1230
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9860
predicted_WHIP	1.5870

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.8210	0.5336	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2670	0.1736	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.4058	2.4058	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.7660	0.8479	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1230	0.0800	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.0000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.9860	1.3409	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5870	1.5870	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	1.93
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	27
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	17
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	668933
playerID	668933
playerName	Graham Ashcraft
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CIN
teamID	7

Connor Phillips (683175) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 18

All-history rows before 20260507: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.389	1.000	-0.389	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.900	1.100	0.100	-0.100
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.167	2.000	0.833	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	2.000	5.000	4.000	7.000	0.000	3.0000	1.5000	0.3333	0.8333	0.6667	1.1667	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	2.000	6.000	8.000	12.000	0.000	1.7419	1.3548	0.1935	0.5806	0.7742	1.1613	0.0000
season	0.20	17	19.000	5.000	11.000	16.000	21.000	1.000	2.3684	1.4211	0.2632	0.5789	0.8421	1.1053	0.0526

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.8500
predicted_ER	0.3110
predicted_ERA	2.4333
predicted_H	0.7980
predicted_HR	0.0120
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.3250
predicted_WHIP	1.4334

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.8500	0.5525	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3110	0.2021	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.4333	2.4333	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7980	0.5187	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0120	0.0078	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.3250	1.5612	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4334	1.4334	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	3.32
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	3
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	28
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	18
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	683175
playerID	683175
playerName	Connor Phillips
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CIN
teamID	7

Tony Santillan (663574) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 16

All-history rows before 20260507: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.312	1.000	2.688	2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.950	1.000	0.050	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	5.000	8.000	3.000	4.000	3.000	9.0000	2.2000	1.0000	1.6000	0.6000	0.8000	0.6000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	5.000	10.000	4.000	8.000	3.000	4.6552	1.4483	0.5172	1.0345	0.4138	0.8276	0.3103
season	0.20	16	15.200	5.000	11.000	9.000	16.000	3.000	2.8723	1.2766	0.3191	0.7021	0.5745	1.0213	0.1915

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5300
predicted_ER	0.6950
predicted_ERA	6.2538
predicted_H	1.2220
predicted_HR	0.4170
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8540
predicted_WHIP	1.7522

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.5300	0.6945	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	0.6950	1.5017	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	6.2538	6.2538	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	1.2220	1.4943	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.4170	0.6210	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8540	0.9051	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.7522	1.7522	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	3
ER	3
BB	1
SO	1
HR	1
BF	7
Pitches	26

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	2.87
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	663574
playerID	663574
playerName	Tony Santillan
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CIN
teamID	7

Home Team: CHC

Nico Hoerner (663538) · BATTER · 2B · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 35

All-history rows before 20260507: 35

System season_avg: 0.2850

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2847

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.257	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.257	0.000	0.743	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.114	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.114	5.000	-0.114	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.247	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.285	0.000	-0.035	0.250
predicted_BB	0.429	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.429	0.000	-0.429	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.960	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.171	0.000	-0.171	1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.114	0.000	-0.114	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.326	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.361	0.000	-0.111	0.250
predicted_R	0.514	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.514	1.000	0.486	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.771	0.000	-0.771	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.315	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.431	0.000	0.069	0.500
predicted_SO	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.257	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.114	-
predicted_AVG	0.247	-
predicted_BB	0.429	-
predicted_H	0.960	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.326	-
predicted_R	0.514	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.315	-
predicted_SO	0.400	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.228	-0.029
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.159	0.045
predicted_AVG	0.247	0.000
predicted_BB	0.414	-0.015
predicted_H	1.009	0.049
predicted_HBP	0.148	-
predicted_HR	0.022	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.326	-0.000
predicted_R	0.410	-0.104
predicted_RBI	0.410	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.315	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.238	-0.162

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.16), rates preserved: AVG=0.243 HR/AB=0.005

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 4.114

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	0.000	0.2381	0.3200	0.2857	0.2381	0.0000	0.0476	0.0952	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	-	42.000	10.000	2.000	0.000	5.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	0.2381	0.3125	0.2857	0.2381	0.0000	0.1191	0.0952	0.0476
season	0.20	35	-	144.000	41.000	9.000	4.000	27.000	18.000	15.000	14.000	0.2847	0.3614	0.4306	0.2847	0.0278	0.1875	0.1042	0.0972

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2120
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.1830
predicted_AVG	0.2474
predicted_BB	0.4060
predicted_H	1.0350
predicted_HBP	0.1480
predicted_HR	0.0230
predicted_OBP	0.3257
predicted_R	0.3540
predicted_RBI	0.4210
predicted_SLG	0.3147
predicted_SO	0.1510

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2570	0.2120	0.2278	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1140	4.1830	4.1589	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2470	0.2474	0.2473	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4290	0.4060	0.4141	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9600	1.0350	1.0088	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1480	0.1480	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0230	0.0219	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3260	0.3257	0.3258	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5140	0.3540	0.4100	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.4210	0.4102	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3150	0.3147	0.3148	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4000	0.1510	0.2381	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.285

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260506_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	663538
playerID	663538
playerName	Nico Hoerner
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	CHC
teamID	5

Michael Conforto (624424) · BATTER · RF · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 9

All-history rows before 20260507: 9

System season_avg: 0.2730

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2727

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.222	1.000	-0.222	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.750	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	2.444	4.000	1.556	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.291	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.273	0.250	-0.023	0.000
predicted_BB	0.750	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.778	0.000	-0.778	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.630	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.667	1.000	0.333	0.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.438	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.433	0.250	-0.183	0.000
predicted_R	0.625	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.556	2.000	0.444	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.444	0.000	-0.444	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.397	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.364	0.500	-0.114	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.750	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.667	0.000	1.333	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.750	-
predicted_AVG	0.291	-
predicted_BB	0.750	-
predicted_H	0.630	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.438	-
predicted_R	0.625	-
predicted_RBI	0.350	-
predicted_SLG	0.397	-
predicted_SO	0.750	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.292	0.042
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.881	0.131
predicted_AVG	0.291	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.766	0.016
predicted_H	0.778	0.148
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.438	0.000
predicted_R	0.728	0.103
predicted_RBI	0.429	0.079
predicted_SLG	0.397	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.712	-0.038

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.88), rates preserved: AVG=0.270 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	5.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	4.000	3.000	0.3125	0.4500	0.4375	0.3125	0.1875	0.2500	0.1875
last_10	0.35	8	-	22.000	6.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	6.000	6.000	0.2727	0.4286	0.3636	0.2727	0.1364	0.2727	0.2727
season	0.20	8	-	22.000	6.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	6.000	6.000	0.2727	0.4286	0.3636	0.2727	0.1364	0.2727	0.2727

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3140
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.9520
predicted_AVG	0.2906
predicted_BB	0.7750
predicted_H	0.8580
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.4382
predicted_R	0.7840
predicted_RBI	0.4710
predicted_SLG	0.3969
predicted_SO	0.6920

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.3140	0.2916	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.7500	2.9520	2.8813	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2910	0.2906	0.2907	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7500	0.7750	0.7662	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6300	0.8580	0.7782	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4380	0.4382	0.4381	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6250	0.7840	0.7284	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3500	0.4710	0.4286	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3970	0.3969	0.3969	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7500	0.6920	0.7123	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.273

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260429_CHC@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	624424
playerID	624424
playerName	Michael Conforto
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	CHC
teamID	5

Miguel Amaya (665804) · BATTER · C · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 17

All-history rows before 20260507: 17

System season_avg: 0.2180

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2182

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.059	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.235	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.235	3.000	-0.235	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.212	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.218	0.000	-0.218	0.000
predicted_BB	0.353	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.353	1.000	-0.353	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.560	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.706	0.000	-0.706	0.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.346	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.317	0.250	-0.317	-0.250
predicted_R	0.529	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.529	0.000	-0.529	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.353	0.000	-0.353	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.365	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.345	0.000	-0.345	0.000
predicted_SO	0.882	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.882	1.000	1.118	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.059	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.235	-
predicted_AVG	0.212	-
predicted_BB	0.353	-
predicted_H	0.560	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.346	-
predicted_R	0.529	-
predicted_RBI	0.280	-
predicted_SLG	0.365	-
predicted_SO	0.882	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.028	-0.031
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.145	-0.090
predicted_AVG	0.212	0.000
predicted_BB	0.424	0.071
predicted_H	0.623	0.063
predicted_HBP	0.186	-
predicted_HR	0.146	0.016
predicted_OBP	0.346	0.000
predicted_R	0.484	-0.045
predicted_RBI	0.312	0.032
predicted_SLG	0.365	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.779	-0.103

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.23), rates preserved: AVG=0.193 HR/AB=0.045

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	0.2143	0.3889	0.4286	0.2143	0.0714	0.1429	0.2143	0.2143
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	7.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	3.000	8.000	0.2059	0.3077	0.2941	0.2059	0.0294	0.0588	0.0882	0.2353
season	0.20	17	-	55.000	12.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	9.000	6.000	15.000	0.2182	0.3175	0.3455	0.2182	0.0364	0.1091	0.1091	0.2727

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0110
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.0970
predicted_AVG	0.2121
predicted_BB	0.4620
predicted_H	0.6570
predicted_HBP	0.1860
predicted_HR	0.1540
predicted_OBP	0.3462
predicted_R	0.4600
predicted_RBI	0.3300
predicted_SLG	0.3649
predicted_SO	0.7230

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0590	0.0110	0.0278	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2350	3.0970	3.1453	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2120	0.2121	0.2121	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3530	0.4620	0.4239	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5600	0.6570	0.6231	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1860	0.1860	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1540	0.1456	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3460	0.3462	0.3461	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5290	0.4600	0.4842	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2800	0.3300	0.3125	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3650	0.3649	0.3649	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8820	0.7230	0.7786	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.218

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260505_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	665804
playerID	665804
playerName	Miguel Amaya
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	CHC
teamID	5

Pete Crow-Armstrong (691718) · BATTER · CF · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 36

All-history rows before 20260507: 36

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_3B	0.056	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_AB	3.778	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.778	3.000	-0.778	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.272	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.667	-0.250	-0.667
predicted_BB	0.278	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.278	0.000	-0.278	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_H	0.830	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.944	2.000	-0.944	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.111	1.000	-0.111	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.349	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.315	0.750	-0.315	-0.750
predicted_R	0.639	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.639	1.000	-0.639	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.460	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.417	2.000	-0.417	-2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.194	0.000	-0.194	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.568	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.397	1.667	-0.397	-1.667
predicted_SO	1.083	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.083	0.000	-0.083	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	-
predicted_3B	0.056	-
predicted_AB	3.778	-
predicted_AVG	0.272	-
predicted_BB	0.278	-
predicted_H	0.830	-
predicted_HR	0.180	-
predicted_OBP	0.349	-
predicted_R	0.639	-
predicted_RBI	0.460	-
predicted_SLG	0.568	-
predicted_SO	1.083	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.135	0.024
predicted_3B	0.109	0.053
predicted_AB	3.686	-0.092
predicted_AVG	0.272	0.000
predicted_BB	0.283	0.005
predicted_H	0.934	0.104
predicted_HBP	0.142	-
predicted_HR	0.205	0.025
predicted_OBP	0.349	-0.000
predicted_R	0.642	0.003
predicted_RBI	0.515	0.055
predicted_SLG	0.568	0.000
predicted_SO	0.853	-0.230

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.78), rates preserved: AVG=0.247 HR/AB=0.054

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	0.2778	0.3500	0.6111	0.2778	0.0556	0.1111	0.0556	0.1667
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	10.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	8.000	7.000	4.000	7.000	0.2778	0.3659	0.6111	0.2778	0.0833	0.2222	0.1111	0.1944
season	0.20	36	-	136.000	34.000	4.000	2.000	4.000	15.000	23.000	10.000	39.000	0.2500	0.3154	0.3971	0.2500	0.0294	0.1103	0.0735	0.2868

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1480
predicted_3B	0.1370
predicted_AB	3.6360
predicted_AVG	0.2722
predicted_BB	0.2860
predicted_H	0.9900
predicted_HBP	0.1420
predicted_HR	0.2180
predicted_OBP	0.3486
predicted_R	0.6430
predicted_RBI	0.5450
predicted_SLG	0.5683
predicted_SO	0.7290

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1110	0.1480	0.1351	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0560	0.1370	0.1086	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7780	3.6360	3.6857	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2720	0.2722	0.2721	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2780	0.2860	0.2832	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8300	0.9900	0.9340	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1420	0.1420	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1800	0.2180	0.2047	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3490	0.3486	0.3487	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6390	0.6430	0.6416	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4600	0.5450	0.5153	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5680	0.5683	0.5682	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0830	0.7290	0.8529	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260506_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	691718
playerID	691718
playerName	Pete Crow-Armstrong
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	CHC
teamID	5

Alex Bregman (608324) · BATTER · 3B · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 36

All-history rows before 20260507: 36

System season_avg: 0.2340

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2345

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.139	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.139	0.000	-0.139	0.000
predicted_3B	0.028	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_AB	4.028	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.028	4.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.234	0.250	-0.234	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.583	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.583	1.000	-0.583	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.620	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.944	1.000	-0.944	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.312	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.400	-0.333	-0.400
predicted_R	0.361	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.361	1.000	-0.361	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.232	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.345	0.250	-0.345	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.722	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.722	2.000	1.278	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.139	-
predicted_3B	0.028	-
predicted_AB	4.028	-
predicted_AVG	0.167	-
predicted_BB	0.583	-
predicted_H	0.620	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.312	-
predicted_R	0.361	-
predicted_RBI	0.220	-
predicted_SLG	0.232	-
predicted_SO	0.722	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.172	0.033
predicted_3B	0.013	-0.015
predicted_AB	3.864	-0.164
predicted_AVG	0.167	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.699	0.116
predicted_H	0.626	0.006
predicted_HBP	0.042	-
predicted_HR	0.017	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.312	0.000
predicted_R	0.464	0.103
predicted_RBI	0.223	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.232	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.798	0.076

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.03), rates preserved: AVG=0.155 HR/AB=0.004

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 4.028

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	5.000	0.1579	0.3043	0.2105	0.1579	0.0000	0.0526	0.2105	0.2632
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	8.000	7.000	0.1389	0.3111	0.1944	0.1389	0.0000	0.0556	0.2222	0.1944
season	0.20	36	-	145.000	34.000	5.000	1.000	3.000	12.000	13.000	21.000	26.000	0.2345	0.3333	0.3448	0.2345	0.0207	0.0828	0.1448	0.1793

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1890
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.7760
predicted_AVG	0.1666
predicted_BB	0.7610
predicted_H	0.6290
predicted_HBP	0.0420
predicted_HR	0.0160
predicted_OBP	0.3125
predicted_R	0.5190
predicted_RBI	0.2250
predicted_SLG	0.2317
predicted_SO	0.8390

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1390	0.1890	0.1715	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0280	0.0050	0.0130	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0280	3.7760	3.8642	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1670	0.1666	0.1667	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5830	0.7610	0.6987	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6200	0.6290	0.6259	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0420	0.0420	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0160	0.0174	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3120	0.3125	0.3123	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3610	0.5190	0.4637	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2200	0.2250	0.2233	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2320	0.2317	0.2318	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7220	0.8390	0.7980	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.234

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	1
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260506_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	608324
playerID	608324
playerName	Alex Bregman
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	CHC
teamID	5

Moisés Ballesteros (694208) · BATTER · DH · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 26

All-history rows before 20260507: 26

System season_avg: 0.2750

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2750

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.077	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.077	2.000	2.000	Hitting_AB	3.077	3.000	-1.077	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.165	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.275	0.000	-0.275	0.000
predicted_BB	0.346	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.346	0.000	0.654	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.460	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.846	0.000	-0.846	0.000
predicted_HR	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.231	0.000	-0.231	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.273	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.344	0.000	0.156	0.500
predicted_R	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.450	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.615	0.000	-0.615	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.389	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.525	0.000	-0.525	0.000
predicted_SO	0.577	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.577	2.000	-0.577	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.077	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.077	-
predicted_AVG	0.165	-
predicted_BB	0.346	-
predicted_H	0.460	-
predicted_HR	0.200	-
predicted_OBP	0.273	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.450	-
predicted_SLG	0.389	-
predicted_SO	0.577	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.059	-0.018
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.313	0.236
predicted_AVG	0.165	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.455	0.109
predicted_H	0.529	0.069
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.226	0.026
predicted_OBP	0.273	0.000
predicted_R	0.472	-0.028
predicted_RBI	0.514	0.064
predicted_SLG	0.389	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.730	0.153

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.31), rates preserved: AVG=0.160 HR/AB=0.068

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 26

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	0.1176	0.2500	0.2941	0.1177	0.0588	0.1177	0.1765	0.2941
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	6.000	1.000	3.000	7.000	5.000	5.000	7.000	0.1622	0.2619	0.4324	0.1622	0.0811	0.1892	0.1351	0.1892
season	0.20	26	-	80.000	22.000	2.000	6.000	16.000	13.000	9.000	15.000	0.2750	0.3444	0.5250	0.2750	0.0750	0.2000	0.1125	0.1875

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0500
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.4400
predicted_AVG	0.1647
predicted_BB	0.5130
predicted_H	0.5670
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.2400
predicted_OBP	0.2730
predicted_R	0.4570
predicted_RBI	0.5480
predicted_SLG	0.3887
predicted_SO	0.8120

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0770	0.0500	0.0595	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0770	3.4400	3.3129	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1650	0.1647	0.1648	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3460	0.5130	0.4546	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4600	0.5670	0.5295	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2000	0.2400	0.2260	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2730	0.2730	0.2730	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.4570	0.4721	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4500	0.5480	0.5137	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3890	0.3887	0.3888	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5770	0.8120	0.7298	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	26
Season rows before report date	26
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	26
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.275

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260506_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	694208
playerID	694208
playerName	Moisés Ballesteros
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	CHC
teamID	5

Ian Happ (664023) · BATTER · LF · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 35

All-history rows before 20260507: 35

System season_avg: 0.2480

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2481

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.171	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.171	0.000	-0.171	0.000
predicted_3B	0.029	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_AB	3.800	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.800	5.000	-0.800	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.315	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.248	0.600	0.085	-0.267
predicted_BB	0.743	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.743	0.000	0.257	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.090	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.943	3.000	0.057	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.290	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.257	1.000	0.743	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.463	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.379	0.600	0.121	-0.100
predicted_R	0.800	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.800	2.000	0.200	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.450	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.486	2.000	0.514	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.057	1.000	-0.057	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.692	1.333	1.333	Hitting_SLG	0.511	1.200	0.822	0.133
predicted_SO	1.343	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.343	1.000	-1.343	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.171	-
predicted_3B	0.029	-
predicted_AB	3.800	-
predicted_AVG	0.315	-
predicted_BB	0.743	-
predicted_H	1.090	-
predicted_HR	0.290	-
predicted_OBP	0.463	-
predicted_R	0.800	-
predicted_RBI	0.450	-
predicted_SLG	0.692	-
predicted_SO	1.343	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.187	0.016
predicted_3B	0.096	0.067
predicted_AB	3.673	-0.127
predicted_AVG	0.315	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.879	0.136
predicted_H	1.119	0.029
predicted_HBP	0.047	-
predicted_HR	0.297	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.463	-0.000
predicted_R	1.023	0.223
predicted_RBI	0.464	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.692	0.000
predicted_SO	1.327	-0.016

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.80), rates preserved: AVG=0.294 HR/AB=0.078

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	7.000	5.000	7.000	0.3889	0.5217	0.8889	0.3889	0.1111	0.1667	0.2778	0.3889
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	9.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	10.000	10.000	12.000	0.2571	0.4348	0.5429	0.2571	0.0571	0.0857	0.2857	0.3429
season	0.20	35	-	133.000	33.000	6.000	1.000	9.000	17.000	28.000	26.000	47.000	0.2481	0.3789	0.5113	0.2481	0.0677	0.1278	0.1955	0.3534

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1950
predicted_3B	0.1320
predicted_AB	3.6050
predicted_AVG	0.3146
predicted_BB	0.9520
predicted_H	1.1340
predicted_HBP	0.0470
predicted_HR	0.3010
predicted_OBP	0.4627
predicted_R	1.1430
predicted_RBI	0.4710
predicted_SLG	0.6923
predicted_SO	1.3180

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1710	0.1950	0.1866	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0290	0.1320	0.0960	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8000	3.6050	3.6733	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3150	0.3146	0.3147	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7430	0.9520	0.8789	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0900	1.1340	1.1186	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0470	0.0470	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2900	0.3010	0.2971	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4630	0.4627	0.4628	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8000	1.1430	1.0230	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4500	0.4710	0.4637	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6920	0.6923	0.6922	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3430	1.3180	1.3268	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.248

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.6
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	6
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260506_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	664023
playerID	664023
playerName	Ian Happ
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	CHC
teamID	5

Michael Busch (683737) · BATTER · 1B · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 35

All-history rows before 20260507: 35

System season_avg: 0.2260

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2256

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.029	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_AB	3.800	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.800	3.000	0.200	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.348	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.226	0.333	0.024	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.600	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.600	2.000	-0.600	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.200	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.857	1.000	0.143	0.000
predicted_HR	0.150	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.086	0.000	0.914	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.489	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.335	0.600	-0.085	-0.350
predicted_R	0.457	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.457	0.000	0.543	1.000
predicted_RBI	1.100	3.000	3.000	Hitting_RBI	0.543	1.000	2.457	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.667	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SLG	0.361	0.333	0.639	0.667
predicted_SO	1.029	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.029	2.000	0.971	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.029	-
predicted_AB	3.800	-
predicted_AVG	0.348	-
predicted_BB	0.600	-
predicted_H	1.200	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.489	-
predicted_R	0.457	-
predicted_RBI	1.100	-
predicted_SLG	0.667	-
predicted_SO	1.029	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.308	0.108
predicted_3B	0.098	0.069
predicted_AB	3.511	-0.289
predicted_AVG	0.348	0.000
predicted_BB	0.878	0.278
predicted_H	1.179	-0.021
predicted_HBP	0.081	-
predicted_HR	0.147	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.489	-0.000
predicted_R	0.404	-0.053
predicted_RBI	1.085	-0.015
predicted_SLG	0.667	0.000
predicted_SO	1.039	0.010

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.80), rates preserved: AVG=0.310 HR/AB=0.039

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	3.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	2.000	6.000	5.000	0.4375	0.5652	0.8750	0.4375	0.0625	0.4375	0.3750	0.3125
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	10.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	9.000	3.000	10.000	11.000	0.3030	0.4783	0.5758	0.3030	0.0303	0.2727	0.3030	0.3333
season	0.20	35	-	133.000	30.000	7.000	1.000	3.000	19.000	16.000	21.000	36.000	0.2256	0.3354	0.3609	0.2256	0.0226	0.1429	0.1579	0.2707

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3660
predicted_3B	0.1350
predicted_AB	3.3550
predicted_AVG	0.3480
predicted_BB	1.0280
predicted_H	1.1680
predicted_HBP	0.0810
predicted_HR	0.1450
predicted_OBP	0.4888
predicted_R	0.3760
predicted_RBI	1.0770
predicted_SLG	0.6675
predicted_SO	1.0450

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.3660	0.3079	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0290	0.1350	0.0979	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8000	3.3550	3.5107	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3480	0.3480	0.3480	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6000	1.0280	0.8782	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2000	1.1680	1.1792	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0810	0.0810	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1450	0.1467	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4890	0.4888	0.4889	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4570	0.3760	0.4043	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	1.1000	1.0770	1.0850	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6670	0.6675	0.6673	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0290	1.0450	1.0394	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	3
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.226

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260506_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	683737
playerID	683737
playerName	Michael Busch
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	CHC
teamID	5

Dansby Swanson (621020) · BATTER · SS · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 35

All-history rows before 20260507: 35

System season_avg: 0.2000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.029	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_3B	0.029	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_AB	3.429	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.429	4.000	-0.429	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.187	0.667	0.667	Hitting_AVG	0.200	0.250	0.467	0.417
predicted_BB	0.600	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.600	0.000	-0.600	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.550	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.686	1.000	1.314	1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.171	0.000	0.829	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.250	0.667	0.667	Hitting_OBP	0.317	0.250	0.349	0.417
predicted_R	0.714	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.714	0.000	0.286	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.250	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	0.629	0.000	1.371	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.269	1.667	1.667	Hitting_SLG	0.375	0.250	1.292	1.417
predicted_SO	0.886	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.886	1.000	-0.886	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.029	-
predicted_3B	0.029	-
predicted_AB	3.429	-
predicted_AVG	0.187	-
predicted_BB	0.600	-
predicted_H	0.550	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.250	-
predicted_R	0.714	-
predicted_RBI	0.250	-
predicted_SLG	0.269	-
predicted_SO	0.886	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.014	-0.015
predicted_3B	0.037	0.008
predicted_AB	3.599	0.170
predicted_AVG	0.187	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.396	-0.204
predicted_H	0.640	0.090
predicted_HBP	0.041	-
predicted_HR	0.068	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.250	-0.000
predicted_R	0.520	-0.194
predicted_RBI	0.289	0.039
predicted_SLG	0.269	0.000
predicted_SO	0.763	-0.123

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.60), rates preserved: AVG=0.178 HR/AB=0.019

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	3.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	0.1579	0.2000	0.1579	0.1579	0.0000	0.0000	0.0526	0.1579
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	8.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	5.000	2.000	7.000	0.2162	0.2750	0.3514	0.2162	0.0270	0.1351	0.0541	0.1892
season	0.20	35	-	120.000	24.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	22.000	25.000	21.000	31.000	0.2000	0.3172	0.3750	0.2000	0.0500	0.1833	0.1750	0.2583

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0060
predicted_3B	0.0410
predicted_AB	3.6910
predicted_AVG	0.1867
predicted_BB	0.2860
predicted_H	0.6890
predicted_HBP	0.0410
predicted_HR	0.0720
predicted_OBP	0.2497
predicted_R	0.4160
predicted_RBI	0.3100
predicted_SLG	0.2690
predicted_SO	0.6970

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0290	0.0060	0.0140	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0290	0.0410	0.0368	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4290	3.6910	3.5993	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1870	0.1867	0.1868	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6000	0.2860	0.3959	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5500	0.6890	0.6403	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0410	0.0410	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0720	0.0678	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2500	0.2497	0.2498	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7140	0.4160	0.5203	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2500	0.3100	0.2890	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2690	0.2690	0.2690	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8860	0.6970	0.7631	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.2

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260506_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	621020
playerID	621020
playerName	Dansby Swanson
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	CHC
teamID	5

Shota Imanaga (684007) · PITCHER · Starter · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 7

All-history rows before 20260507: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.571	0.000	-1.571	0.000
predicted_IP	4.200	4.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.871	7.000	-1.671	-2.800
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_SO	6.143	5.000	-3.143	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 4.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	31.100	6.000	16.000	7.000	32.000	2.000	1.7234	0.7340	0.1915	0.5106	0.2234	1.0213	0.0638
last_10	0.35	7	41.100	11.000	25.000	10.000	43.000	3.000	2.3952	0.8468	0.2661	0.6048	0.2419	1.0403	0.0726
season	0.20	7	41.100	11.000	25.000	10.000	43.000	3.000	2.3952	0.8468	0.2661	0.6048	0.2419	1.0403	0.0726

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.4370
predicted_ER	1.4300
predicted_ERA	2.0929
predicted_H	3.4590
predicted_HR	0.4220
predicted_IP	6.0000
predicted_SO	6.3450
predicted_WHIP	0.7960

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	1.4370	1.9840	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	1.4300	0.9295	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.0929	2.0929	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	3.4590	2.9484	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.4220	0.2743	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.2000	6.0000	5.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	6.3450	5.1742	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.7960	0.7960	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.2
H	2
R	0
ER	0
BB	3
SO	3
HR	0
BF	20
Pitches	93

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	26
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.40
Pitching_Flyouts	4
Pitching_Groundouts	10
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	7.0
Pitching_Pitches	87
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	5
Pitching_Strikes	56
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260502_ARI@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	684007
playerID	684007
playerName	Shota Imanaga
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	CHC
teamID	5

Ben Brown (676962) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 12

All-history rows before 20260507: 12

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	2.042	1.000	-0.942	0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	2.000	1.000	-2.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	9.000	1.000	6.000	2.000	9.000	0.000	1.0000	0.8889	0.1111	0.6667	0.2222	1.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	19.000	4.000	14.000	6.000	16.000	0.000	1.8947	1.0526	0.2105	0.7368	0.3158	0.8421	0.0000
season	0.20	12	25.200	6.000	18.000	8.000	24.000	1.000	2.1039	1.0130	0.2338	0.7013	0.3117	0.9351	0.0390

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5050
predicted_ER	0.3150
predicted_ERA	1.5339
predicted_H	1.2920
predicted_HR	0.0140
predicted_IP	2.0000
predicted_SO	1.7240
predicted_WHIP	0.9710

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5050	0.3283	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3150	0.2048	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.5339	1.5339	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.2920	0.8398	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0140	0.0091	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	2.0000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.7240	1.1206	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9710	0.9710	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	8

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	2.10
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	25
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	676962
playerID	676962
playerName	Ben Brown
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHC
teamID	5

Jacob Webb (657097) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 16

All-history rows before 20260507: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.812	1.200	0.288	-0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.062	1.000	-1.062	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	1.000	1.5000	0.6667	0.1667	0.3333	0.3333	1.1667	0.1667
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	3.000	10.000	2.000	11.000	1.000	2.7931	1.2414	0.3103	1.0345	0.2069	1.1379	0.1035
season	0.20	16	15.100	6.000	16.000	7.000	17.000	3.000	3.5217	1.5000	0.3913	1.0435	0.4565	1.1087	0.1956

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3610
predicted_ER	0.3010
predicted_ERA	2.3569
predicted_H	0.8290
predicted_HR	0.1730
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.3170
predicted_WHIP	1.0345

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3610	0.5847	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3010	0.1956	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.3569	2.3569	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8290	0.5388	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1730	0.1124	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.0000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.3170	0.8560	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0345	1.0345	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.52
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	4
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.2
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	657097
playerID	657097
playerName	Jacob Webb
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHC
teamID	5

Hoby Milner (571948) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 19

All-history rows before 20260507: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.263	1.000	-0.263	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.795	1.000	0.205	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.316	1.000	0.684	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	1.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	0.000	2.0769	0.9231	0.2308	0.4615	0.4615	0.6923	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	3.000	5.000	6.000	5.000	1.000	2.8929	1.1786	0.3214	0.5357	0.6429	0.5357	0.1071
season	0.20	18	17.200	5.000	12.000	6.000	6.000	2.000	2.5472	1.0189	0.2830	0.6793	0.3396	0.3396	0.1132

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5010
predicted_ER	0.2730
predicted_ERA	2.4566
predicted_H	0.5310
predicted_HR	0.0600
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.5670
predicted_WHIP	1.0317

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.5010	0.6756	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2730	0.1775	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.4566	2.4566	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.5310	0.6951	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0600	0.0390	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.5670	0.7186	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0317	1.0317	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	24

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	2.55
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	2
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	25
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	571948
playerID	571948
playerName	Hoby Milner
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHC
teamID	5

Phil Maton (664208) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 10

All-history rows before 20260507: 10

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.800	0.000	2.200	3.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.670	1.000	-0.470	-0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.100	1.000	-0.100	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 10

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	2.000	4.000	1.000	6.000	0.000	4.1538	1.1538	0.4615	0.9231	0.2308	1.3846	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.100	8.000	10.000	5.000	11.000	1.000	8.6400	1.8000	0.9600	1.2000	0.6000	1.3200	0.1200
season	0.20	10	8.100	8.000	10.000	5.000	11.000	1.000	8.6400	1.8000	0.9600	1.2000	0.6000	1.3200	0.1200

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3540
predicted_ER	0.6010
predicted_ERA	6.6212
predicted_H	0.8780
predicted_HR	0.0540
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	1.1020
predicted_WHIP	1.5092

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.3540	0.9301	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	0.6010	1.4406	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	6.6212	6.6212	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.8780	1.2707	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0540	0.0351	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1020	1.0663	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5092	1.5092	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	10
Season rows before report date	10
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	10
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	2
R	3
ER	3
BB	2
SO	1
HR	0
BF	7
Pitches	32

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	8.64
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	664208
playerID	664208
playerName	Phil Maton
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHC
teamID	5

20260507_CLE@KC

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "confidence": 0.58425, "home_win_probability": 0.58425, "away_win_probability": 0.41574999999999995, "predicted_score_text": "CLE 3 - 4 KC", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to final winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration.", "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score", "final_prediction_synced": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "CLE 3 - 4 KC", "winner": "KC"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "CLE 3 - 4 KC", "winner": "KC"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"}}

Away Team: CLE

Brayan Rocchio (677587) · BATTER · SS · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 36

All-history rows before 20260507: 36

System season_avg: 0.2540

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2542

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.278	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.278	3.000	0.722	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.166	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.254	0.000	-0.004	0.250
predicted_BB	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_H	0.470	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.833	0.000	0.167	1.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.235	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.250	-0.083	0.000
predicted_R	0.389	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.389	0.000	-0.389	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.340	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.528	0.000	-0.528	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.222	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.364	0.000	-0.114	0.250
predicted_SO	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.278	-
predicted_AVG	0.166	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.470	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.235	-
predicted_R	0.389	-
predicted_RBI	0.340	-
predicted_SLG	0.222	-
predicted_SO	0.333	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.134	0.023
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.504	0.226
predicted_AVG	0.166	0.000
predicted_BB	0.322	-0.011
predicted_H	0.556	0.087
predicted_HBP	0.012	-
predicted_HR	0.015	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.235	0.000
predicted_R	0.317	-0.072
predicted_RBI	0.398	0.058
predicted_SLG	0.222	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.266	-0.067

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.159 HR/AB=0.004

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	0.1053	0.1905	0.1579	0.1053	0.0000	0.1053	0.1053	0.0526
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	0.1944	0.2368	0.2222	0.1944	0.0000	0.1111	0.0556	0.0556
season	0.20	36	-	118.000	30.000	4.000	3.000	19.000	14.000	12.000	12.000	0.2542	0.3333	0.3644	0.2542	0.0254	0.1610	0.1017	0.1017

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1460
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.6260
predicted_AVG	0.1663
predicted_BB	0.3160
predicted_H	0.6030
predicted_HBP	0.0120
predicted_HR	0.0180
predicted_OBP	0.2353
predicted_R	0.2780
predicted_RBI	0.4290
predicted_SLG	0.2217
predicted_SO	0.2300

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1110	0.1460	0.1337	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2780	3.6260	3.5042	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1660	0.1663	0.1662	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.3160	0.3220	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4700	0.6030	0.5565	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0120	0.0120	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0180	0.0152	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2350	0.2353	0.2352	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3890	0.2780	0.3169	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3400	0.4290	0.3978	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2220	0.2217	0.2218	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3330	0.2300	0.2661	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.254

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260506_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	677587
playerID	677587
playerName	Brayan Rocchio
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	CLE
teamID	8

Kyle Manzardo (700932) · BATTER · 1B · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 26

All-history rows before 20260507: 26

System season_avg: 0.1720

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1720

Diff (system - data): -0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.038	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.038	0.000	-0.038	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.577	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.577	4.000	0.423	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.161	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.172	0.250	0.078	0.000
predicted_BB	0.308	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.308	0.000	-0.308	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.520	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.615	1.000	0.385	0.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.038	0.000	-0.038	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.211	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.250	0.250	0.000	0.000
predicted_R	0.192	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.192	1.000	-0.192	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.210	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.231	0.000	-0.231	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.169	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.215	0.250	0.035	0.000
predicted_SO	1.308	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.308	1.000	0.692	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.038	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.577	-
predicted_AVG	0.161	-
predicted_BB	0.308	-
predicted_H	0.520	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.211	-
predicted_R	0.192	-
predicted_RBI	0.210	-
predicted_SLG	0.169	-
predicted_SO	1.308	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.018	-0.019
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.693	0.116
predicted_AVG	0.161	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.275	-0.033
predicted_H	0.575	0.055
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.009	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.211	-0.000
predicted_R	0.254	0.062
predicted_RBI	0.230	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.169	0.000
predicted_SO	1.276	-0.032

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.69), rates preserved: AVG=0.156 HR/AB=0.002

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 26

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	6.000	0.1579	0.1905	0.1579	0.1579	0.0000	0.0526	0.0526	0.3158
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	13.000	0.1579	0.2143	0.1579	0.1579	0.0000	0.0790	0.0790	0.3421
season	0.20	26	-	93.000	16.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	5.000	8.000	34.000	0.1720	0.2500	0.2151	0.1720	0.0107	0.0645	0.0860	0.3656

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0080
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7550
predicted_AVG	0.1607
predicted_BB	0.2570
predicted_H	0.6040
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.0080
predicted_OBP	0.2107
predicted_R	0.2870
predicted_RBI	0.2410
predicted_SLG	0.1693
predicted_SO	1.2580

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0380	0.0080	0.0185	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5770	3.7550	3.6927	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1610	0.1607	0.1608	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3080	0.2570	0.2748	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5200	0.6040	0.5746	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0080	0.0087	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2110	0.2107	0.2108	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1920	0.2870	0.2537	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2100	0.2410	0.2302	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1690	0.1693	0.1692	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3080	1.2580	1.2755	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	26
Season rows before report date	26
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	26
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.172

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260505_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	700932
playerID	700932
playerName	Kyle Manzardo
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	CLE
teamID	8

José Ramírez (608070) · BATTER · DH · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 38

All-history rows before 20260507: 38

System season_avg: 0.2090

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2086

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.211	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.211	0.000	-0.211	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.658	2.000	2.000	Hitting_AB	3.658	2.000	-1.658	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.209	0.000	-0.209	0.000
predicted_BB	0.684	2.000	2.000	Hitting_BB	0.684	2.000	1.316	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_H	0.540	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.763	0.000	-0.763	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.158	0.000	-0.158	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.279	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.500	0.167	0.000
predicted_R	0.579	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.579	1.000	-0.579	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.368	0.000	-0.368	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.368	1.000	-0.368	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.396	0.000	-0.396	0.000
predicted_SO	0.579	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.579	0.000	0.421	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.211	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.658	-
predicted_AVG	0.160	-
predicted_BB	0.684	-
predicted_H	0.540	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.279	-
predicted_R	0.579	-
predicted_RBI	0.290	-
predicted_SLG	0.240	-
predicted_SO	0.579	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.205	-0.006
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.709	0.051
predicted_AVG	0.160	0.000
predicted_BB	0.640	-0.044
predicted_H	0.578	0.038
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.031	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.279	-0.000
predicted_R	0.521	-0.058
predicted_RBI	0.311	0.022
predicted_SLG	0.240	0.000
predicted_SO	0.590	0.011

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.156 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=12.0, BvP AVG=0.167)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-2.000
BB	2.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	3.000	0.1579	0.2727	0.2105	0.1579	0.0000	0.1053	0.1579	0.1579
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	6.000	6.000	0.1351	0.2558	0.1892	0.1351	0.0000	0.0541	0.1622	0.1622
season	0.20	38	-	139.000	29.000	8.000	6.000	14.000	22.000	26.000	22.000	0.2086	0.3333	0.3957	0.2086	0.0432	0.1007	0.1870	0.1583

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2020
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7370
predicted_AVG	0.1601
predicted_BB	0.6170
predicted_H	0.5980
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0320
predicted_OBP	0.2789
predicted_R	0.4900
predicted_RBI	0.3230
predicted_SLG	0.2401
predicted_SO	0.5960

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2110	0.2020	0.2051	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6580	3.7370	3.7094	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1600	0.1601	0.1601	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6840	0.6170	0.6404	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5400	0.5980	0.5777	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0320	0.0313	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2790	0.2789	0.2789	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5790	0.4900	0.5212	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2900	0.3230	0.3115	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2400	0.2401	0.2401	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5790	0.5960	0.5900	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.209

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260506_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	608070
playerID	608070
playerName	José Ramírez
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	CLE
teamID	8

Chase DeLauter (800050) · BATTER · RF · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 31

All-history rows before 20260507: 31

System season_avg: 0.3050

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3051

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.290	1.000	-0.290	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.032	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.032	0.000	-0.032	0.000
predicted_AB	3.806	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.806	4.000	0.194	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.478	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.305	0.500	-0.305	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.516	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.516	0.000	-0.516	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.670	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.161	2.000	-1.161	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.194	0.000	-0.194	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.542	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.385	0.500	-0.385	-0.500
predicted_R	0.484	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.484	0.000	-0.484	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.810	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.742	2.000	-0.742	-2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.734	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.551	0.750	-0.551	-0.750
predicted_SO	0.484	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.484	1.000	-0.484	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.290	-
predicted_3B	0.032	-
predicted_AB	3.806	-
predicted_AVG	0.478	-
predicted_BB	0.516	-
predicted_H	1.670	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.542	-
predicted_R	0.484	-
predicted_RBI	0.810	-
predicted_SLG	0.734	-
predicted_SO	0.484	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.406	0.116
predicted_3B	0.015	-0.017
predicted_AB	3.803	-0.003
predicted_AVG	0.478	0.000
predicted_BB	0.537	0.021
predicted_H	1.766	0.096
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.159	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.542	0.000
predicted_R	0.476	-0.008
predicted_RBI	0.854	0.044
predicted_SLG	0.734	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.441	-0.043

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.81), rates preserved: AVG=0.464 HR/AB=0.042

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	2.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	2.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.806

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	11.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	0.5789	0.6364	0.8947	0.5789	0.0526	0.2632	0.1579	0.1053
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	17.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	8.000	3.000	5.000	4.000	0.4474	0.5116	0.6316	0.4474	0.0263	0.2105	0.1316	0.1053
season	0.20	31	-	118.000	36.000	9.000	1.000	6.000	23.000	15.000	16.000	15.000	0.3051	0.3852	0.5508	0.3051	0.0508	0.1949	0.1356	0.1271

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.4680
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.8010
predicted_AVG	0.4781
predicted_BB	0.5480
predicted_H	1.8170
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1640
predicted_OBP	0.5425
predicted_R	0.4720
predicted_RBI	0.8780
predicted_SLG	0.7338
predicted_SO	0.4170

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2900	0.4680	0.4057	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0320	0.0060	0.0151	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8060	3.8010	3.8027	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.4780	0.4781	0.4781	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5160	0.5480	0.5368	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.6700	1.8170	1.7655	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1640	0.1591	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.5420	0.5425	0.5423	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4840	0.4720	0.4762	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.8100	0.8780	0.8542	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.7340	0.7338	0.7339	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4840	0.4170	0.4405	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.305

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260506_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	800050
playerID	800050
playerName	Chase DeLauter
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	CLE
teamID	8

Steven Kwan (680757) · BATTER · LF · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 34

All-history rows before 20260507: 34

System season_avg: 0.2110

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2105

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.147	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.147	0.000	0.853	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.912	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.912	4.000	1.088	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.172	0.400	0.400	Hitting_AVG	0.211	0.000	0.189	0.400
predicted_BB	0.471	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.471	0.000	-0.471	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_H	0.640	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.824	0.000	1.176	2.000
predicted_HR	0.010	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.029	0.000	0.971	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.279	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.303	0.000	0.097	0.400
predicted_R	0.441	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.441	0.000	0.559	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.170	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.265	0.000	0.735	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.202	1.200	1.200	Hitting_SLG	0.271	0.000	0.929	1.200
predicted_SO	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.147	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.912	-
predicted_AVG	0.172	-
predicted_BB	0.471	-
predicted_H	0.640	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.279	-
predicted_R	0.441	-
predicted_RBI	0.170	-
predicted_SLG	0.202	-
predicted_SO	0.500	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.117	-0.030
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.935	0.023
predicted_AVG	0.172	0.000
predicted_BB	0.457	-0.014
predicted_H	0.667	0.027
predicted_HBP	0.136	-
predicted_HR	0.007	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.279	0.000
predicted_R	0.558	0.117
predicted_RBI	0.175	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.202	0.000
predicted_SO	0.471	-0.029

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.93), rates preserved: AVG=0.169 HR/AB=0.002

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, BvP AVG=0.300)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.912

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	0.1500	0.2609	0.1500	0.1500	0.0000	0.0500	0.1000	0.1000
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	7.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	5.000	5.000	0.1795	0.2889	0.2308	0.1795	0.0000	0.0256	0.1282	0.1282
season	0.20	34	-	133.000	28.000	5.000	1.000	9.000	15.000	16.000	17.000	0.2105	0.3026	0.2707	0.2105	0.0075	0.0677	0.1203	0.1278

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1010
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.9470
predicted_AVG	0.1724
predicted_BB	0.4500
predicted_H	0.6810
predicted_HBP	0.1360
predicted_HR	0.0060
predicted_OBP	0.2790
predicted_R	0.6210
predicted_RBI	0.1780
predicted_SLG	0.2024
predicted_SO	0.4560

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1470	0.1010	0.1171	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9120	3.9470	3.9348	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1720	0.1724	0.1723	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4710	0.4500	0.4574	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6400	0.6810	0.6666	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1360	0.1360	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0060	0.0074	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2790	0.2790	0.2790	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4410	0.6210	0.5580	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1700	0.1780	0.1752	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2020	0.2024	0.2023	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5000	0.4560	0.4714	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.211

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260505_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	680757
playerID	680757
playerName	Steven Kwan
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	CLE
teamID	8

Bo Naylor (666310) · BATTER · C · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 22

All-history rows before 20260507: 22

System season_avg: 0.1330

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1333

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.091	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.409	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.409	2.000	0.591	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.124	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_BB	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.340	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.455	0.000	-0.455	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.045	0.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.142	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.177	0.000	-0.177	0.000
predicted_R	0.136	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.136	0.000	-0.136	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.207	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_SO	0.864	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.864	1.000	-0.864	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.091	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.409	-
predicted_AVG	0.124	-
predicted_BB	0.182	-
predicted_H	0.340	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.142	-
predicted_R	0.136	-
predicted_RBI	0.160	-
predicted_SLG	0.207	-
predicted_SO	0.864	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.126	0.035
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.346	-0.063
predicted_AVG	0.124	0.000
predicted_BB	0.109	-0.073
predicted_H	0.386	0.046
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.042	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.142	-0.000
predicted_R	0.252	0.116
predicted_RBI	0.184	0.024
predicted_SLG	0.207	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.875	0.011

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.41), rates preserved: AVG=0.113 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, BvP AVG=0.500)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	0.1250	0.1250	0.1875	0.1250	0.0000	0.0625	0.0000	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	10.000	0.1176	0.1429	0.2353	0.1177	0.0294	0.0588	0.0294	0.2941
season	0.20	22	-	75.000	10.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	4.000	19.000	0.1333	0.1772	0.2000	0.1333	0.0133	0.0533	0.0533	0.2533

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1450
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.3120
predicted_AVG	0.1241
predicted_BB	0.0690
predicted_H	0.4110
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0430
predicted_OBP	0.1417
predicted_R	0.3150
predicted_RBI	0.1970
predicted_SLG	0.2067
predicted_SO	0.8810

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0910	0.1450	0.1261	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4090	3.3120	3.3460	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1240	0.1241	0.1241	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1820	0.0690	0.1086	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3400	0.4110	0.3861	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0430	0.0420	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1420	0.1417	0.1418	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1360	0.3150	0.2524	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1600	0.1970	0.1840	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2070	0.2067	0.2068	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8640	0.8810	0.8750	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.133

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260505_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	666310
playerID	666310
playerName	Bo Naylor
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	CLE
teamID	8

Travis Bazzana (683953) · BATTER · 2B · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 7

All-history rows before 20260507: 7

System season_avg: 0.1740

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1739

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.286	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.286	3.000	0.714	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.202	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.174	0.000	-0.174	0.000
predicted_BB	0.857	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.857	0.000	-0.857	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.590	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.571	0.000	-0.571	0.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.361	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.345	0.000	-0.345	0.000
predicted_R	0.571	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.571	0.000	-0.571	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.202	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.174	0.000	-0.174	0.000
predicted_SO	0.571	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.571	0.000	0.429	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.286	-
predicted_AVG	0.202	-
predicted_BB	0.857	-
predicted_H	0.590	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.361	-
predicted_R	0.571	-
predicted_RBI	0.290	-
predicted_SLG	0.202	-
predicted_SO	0.571	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.319	0.033
predicted_AVG	0.202	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.841	-0.016
predicted_H	0.644	0.054
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.361	0.000
predicted_R	0.637	0.066
predicted_RBI	0.320	0.030
predicted_SLG	0.202	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.580	0.009

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.32), rates preserved: AVG=0.194 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	4.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	3.000	0.2353	0.3810	0.2353	0.2353	0.1177	0.2353	0.1765
last_10	0.35	7	-	23.000	4.000	2.000	4.000	6.000	4.000	0.1739	0.3448	0.1739	0.1739	0.0870	0.2609	0.1739
season	0.20	7	-	23.000	4.000	2.000	4.000	6.000	4.000	0.1739	0.3448	0.1739	0.1739	0.0870	0.2609	0.1739

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.3370
predicted_AVG	0.2015
predicted_BB	0.8320
predicted_H	0.6730
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.3611
predicted_R	0.6730
predicted_RBI	0.3360
predicted_SLG	0.2015
predicted_SO	0.5840

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2860	3.3370	3.3192	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2020	0.2015	0.2017	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.8570	0.8320	0.8407	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5900	0.6730	0.6440	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3610	0.3611	0.3611	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5710	0.6730	0.6373	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2900	0.3360	0.3199	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2020	0.2015	0.2017	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5710	0.5840	0.5795	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.174

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260505_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	683953
playerID	683953
playerName	Travis Bazzana
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	CLE
teamID	8

Petey Halpin (690984) · BATTER · CF · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 2

All-history rows before 20260507: 2

System season_avg: 0.1250

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1250

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	4.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.125	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.125	0.250	0.208	0.083
predicted_BB	0.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.410	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.500	1.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.125	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.125	0.250	0.375	0.250
predicted_R	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.500	1.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.125	0.667	0.667	Hitting_SLG	0.125	0.250	0.542	0.417
predicted_SO	1.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.125	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.410	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.125	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.000	-
predicted_SLG	0.125	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.125	0.000
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.469	0.059
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.125	0.000
predicted_R	0.500	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.125	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	0.000

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.117 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total R	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	2	-	8.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	0.1250	0.1250	0.1250	0.1250	0.2500
last_10	0.35	2	-	8.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	0.1250	0.1250	0.1250	0.1250	0.2500
season	0.20	2	-	8.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	0.1250	0.1250	0.1250	0.1250	0.2500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.0000
predicted_AVG	0.1250
predicted_BB	0.0000
predicted_H	0.5000
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.1250
predicted_R	0.5000
predicted_RBI	0.0000
predicted_SLG	0.1250
predicted_SO	1.0000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0000	4.0000	4.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1250	0.1250	0.1250	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4100	0.5000	0.4685	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1250	0.1250	0.1250	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.5000	0.5000	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1250	0.1250	0.1250	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.125

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260506_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	690984
playerID	690984
playerName	Petey Halpin
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	CLE
teamID	8

Daniel Schneemann (682177) · BATTER · 3B · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 26

All-history rows before 20260507: 26

System season_avg: 0.2890

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2889

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.308	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.308	1.000	-0.308	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.462	2.000	2.000	Hitting_AB	3.462	3.000	-1.462	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.196	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.289	0.333	-0.289	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.346	2.000	2.000	Hitting_BB	0.346	1.000	1.654	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_H	0.610	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.244	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.354	0.500	0.146	0.000
predicted_R	0.423	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.423	0.000	0.577	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.170	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.462	0.000	0.538	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.343	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.511	0.667	-0.511	-0.667
predicted_SO	1.115	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.115	1.000	-0.115	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.308	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.462	-
predicted_AVG	0.196	-
predicted_BB	0.346	-
predicted_H	0.610	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.244	-
predicted_R	0.423	-
predicted_RBI	0.170	-
predicted_SLG	0.343	-
predicted_SO	1.115	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.252	-0.056
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.498	0.036
predicted_AVG	0.196	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.271	-0.075
predicted_H	0.661	0.051
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.095	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.244	0.000
predicted_R	0.247	-0.175
predicted_RBI	0.186	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.343	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.182	0.067

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.189 HR/AB=0.027

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-1.000
BB	2.000	2.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 26

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	0.1176	0.1667	0.1765	0.1177	0.0000	0.0000	0.0588	0.3529
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	9.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	13.000	0.2432	0.2821	0.4595	0.2432	0.0541	0.0811	0.0541	0.3513
season	0.20	26	-	90.000	26.000	8.000	4.000	12.000	11.000	9.000	29.000	0.2889	0.3535	0.5111	0.2889	0.0444	0.1333	0.1000	0.3222

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2220
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.5170
predicted_AVG	0.1958
predicted_BB	0.2300
predicted_H	0.6890
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0980
predicted_OBP	0.2445
predicted_R	0.1530
predicted_RBI	0.1940
predicted_SLG	0.3425
predicted_SO	1.2180

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3080	0.2220	0.2521	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4620	3.5170	3.4977	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1960	0.1958	0.1959	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3460	0.2300	0.2706	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6100	0.6890	0.6613	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.0980	0.0952	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2440	0.2445	0.2443	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4230	0.1530	0.2475	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1700	0.1940	0.1856	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3430	0.3425	0.3427	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1150	1.2180	1.1820	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	26
Season rows before report date	26
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	26
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	2
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.289

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260506_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	682177
playerID	682177
playerName	Daniel Schneemann
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	CLE
teamID	8

Slade Cecconi (677944) · PITCHER · Starter · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 7

All-history rows before 20260507: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	3.714	5.000	-1.714	-3.000
predicted_IP	4.100	4.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.929	5.100	-0.829	-1.000
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	-	Pitching_SO	4.000	3.000	0.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 4.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	25.100	20.000	36.000	9.000	17.000	7.000	7.1053	1.7763	0.7895	1.4210	0.3553	0.6711	0.2763
last_10	0.35	7	35.200	26.000	43.000	13.000	28.000	8.000	6.5607	1.5701	0.7290	1.2056	0.3645	0.7851	0.2243
season	0.20	7	35.200	26.000	43.000	13.000	28.000	8.000	6.5607	1.5701	0.7290	1.2056	0.3645	0.7851	0.2243

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.8020
predicted_ER	3.7810
predicted_ERA	6.8058
predicted_H	6.5130
predicted_HR	1.2390
predicted_IP	5.0000
predicted_SO	3.6690
predicted_WHIP	1.6629

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	1.8020	1.8713	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	3.7810	3.1577	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	6.8058	6.8058	form_only
predicted_H	7.0000	6.5130	6.6835	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	1.2390	0.8054	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.1000	5.0000	4.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	4.0000	3.6690	3.7849	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.6629	1.6629	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.1
H	7
R	2
ER	2
BB	2
SO	4
HR	0
BF	24
Pitches	97

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	25
Pitching_ER	5
Pitching_ERA	6.56
Pitching_Flyouts	6
Pitching_Groundouts	5
Pitching_H	10
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.1
Pitching_Pitches	69
Pitching_R	5
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	53
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260502_CLE@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	677944
playerID	677944
playerName	Slade Cecconi
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	CLE
teamID	8

Erik Sabrowski (681870) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 18

All-history rows before 20260507: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.694	1.100	0.406	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.444	2.000	-1.444	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	0.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	0.000	0.0000	0.6923	0.0000	0.2308	0.4615	1.6154	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	4.000	4.000	5.000	14.000	1.000	4.0000	1.0000	0.4444	0.4444	0.5556	1.5556	0.1111
season	0.20	18	16.000	4.000	7.000	7.000	26.000	1.000	2.2500	0.8750	0.2500	0.4375	0.4375	1.6250	0.0625

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4900
predicted_ER	0.2060
predicted_ERA	1.8500
predicted_H	0.3470
predicted_HR	0.0510
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.5960
predicted_WHIP	0.8365

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4900	0.3185	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2060	0.1339	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.8500	1.8500	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.3470	0.5756	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0510	0.0331	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.0000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.5960	1.0374	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.8365	0.8365	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.25
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	20
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	681870
playerID	681870
playerName	Erik Sabrowski
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CLE
teamID	8

Matt Festa (670036) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 16

All-history rows before 20260507: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.562	0.000	1.438	2.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.906	1.000	0.194	0.100
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.062	2.000	0.938	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.9286	0.6429	0.2143	0.2143	0.4286	0.6429	0.2143
last_10	0.35	10	11.100	3.000	6.000	3.000	12.000	1.000	2.3824	0.7941	0.2647	0.5294	0.2647	1.0588	0.0882
season	0.20	16	18.000	9.000	15.000	4.000	17.000	3.000	4.5000	1.0556	0.5000	0.8333	0.2222	0.9444	0.1667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3300
predicted_ER	0.2890
predicted_ERA	2.6017
predicted_H	0.4480
predicted_HR	0.1610
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8490
predicted_WHIP	0.7784

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.3300	0.9145	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.2890	0.8878	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.6017	2.6017	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.4480	0.9912	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.1610	0.4546	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.0000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.8490	1.2518	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.7784	0.7784	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	2
R	2
ER	2
BB	2
SO	2
HR	1
BF	7
Pitches	29

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.50
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	670036
playerID	670036
playerName	Matt Festa
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CLE
teamID	8

Cade Smith (671922) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 16

All-history rows before 20260507: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.006	1.000	-0.006	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.312	3.000	-0.312	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	1.000	6.000	1.000	7.000	0.000	1.6875	1.3125	0.1875	1.1250	0.1875	1.3125	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	1.000	10.000	1.000	13.000	0.000	0.8710	1.0645	0.0968	0.9677	0.0968	1.2581	0.0000
season	0.20	16	16.100	6.000	17.000	4.000	21.000	1.000	3.3061	1.2857	0.3674	1.0408	0.2449	1.2857	0.0612

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1670
predicted_ER	0.1920
predicted_ERA	1.7254
predicted_H	1.0530
predicted_HR	0.0120
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.2880
predicted_WHIP	1.2203

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1670	0.1086	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1920	0.1248	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.7254	1.7254	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.0530	0.6845	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0120	0.0078	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.2880	1.1872	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2203	1.2203	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.31
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	671922
playerID	671922
playerName	Cade Smith
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CLE
teamID	8

Home Team: KC

Isaac Collins (686555) · BATTER · LF · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 28

All-history rows before 20260507: 28

System season_avg: 0.2420

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2421

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.393	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.393	4.000	0.607	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.335	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.242	0.000	0.008	0.250
predicted_BB	0.536	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.536	0.000	-0.536	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.107	0.000	-0.107	0.000
predicted_H	0.980	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.821	0.000	0.179	1.000
predicted_HR	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.107	0.000	-0.107	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.424	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.354	0.000	-0.104	0.250
predicted_R	0.464	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.464	0.000	-0.464	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.520	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.429	0.000	-0.429	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.607	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.379	0.000	-0.129	0.250
predicted_SO	1.179	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.179	2.000	-0.179	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.393	-
predicted_AVG	0.335	-
predicted_BB	0.536	-
predicted_H	0.980	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.424	-
predicted_R	0.464	-
predicted_RBI	0.520	-
predicted_SLG	0.607	-
predicted_SO	1.179	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.257	0.114
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.257	-0.136
predicted_AVG	0.335	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.571	0.035
predicted_H	1.035	0.055
predicted_HBP	0.013	-
predicted_HR	0.178	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.424	0.000
predicted_R	0.409	-0.055
predicted_RBI	0.552	0.032
predicted_SLG	0.607	0.000
predicted_SO	1.042	-0.137

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.39), rates preserved: AVG=0.305 HR/AB=0.053

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	0.4000	0.4737	0.7333	0.4000	0.0667	0.2000	0.2000	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	10.000	3.000	2.000	6.000	3.000	6.000	8.000	0.3030	0.4000	0.5758	0.3030	0.0606	0.1818	0.1818	0.2424
season	0.20	28	-	95.000	23.000	4.000	3.000	12.000	13.000	15.000	33.000	0.2421	0.3540	0.3789	0.2421	0.0316	0.1263	0.1579	0.3474

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3190
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.1840
predicted_AVG	0.3345
predicted_BB	0.5900
predicted_H	1.0650
predicted_HBP	0.0130
predicted_HR	0.1830
predicted_OBP	0.4240
predicted_R	0.3790
predicted_RBI	0.5700
predicted_SLG	0.6073
predicted_SO	0.9690

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.3190	0.2574	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3930	3.1840	3.2572	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3350	0.3345	0.3347	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5360	0.5900	0.5711	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9800	1.0650	1.0353	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0130	0.0130	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.1830	0.1784	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4240	0.4240	0.4240	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4640	0.3790	0.4088	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5200	0.5700	0.5525	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6070	0.6073	0.6072	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1790	0.9690	1.0425	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.242

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260506_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	686555
playerID	686555
playerName	Isaac Collins
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	KC
teamID	12

Kyle Isbel (664728) · BATTER · CF · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 27

All-history rows before 20260507: 27

System season_avg: 0.2860

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2857

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.148	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.148	0.000	-0.148	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.111	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.111	2.000	-0.111	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.277	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.286	0.000	0.048	0.333
predicted_BB	0.222	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.222	1.000	0.778	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.700	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.889	0.000	0.111	1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.352	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.355	0.333	0.145	0.167
predicted_R	0.407	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.407	0.000	-0.407	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.296	0.000	-0.296	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.148	0.000	-0.148	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.394	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.440	0.000	-0.107	0.333
predicted_SO	0.778	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.778	0.000	-0.778	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.148	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.111	-
predicted_AVG	0.277	-
predicted_BB	0.222	-
predicted_H	0.700	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.352	-
predicted_R	0.407	-
predicted_RBI	0.100	-
predicted_SLG	0.394	-
predicted_SO	0.778	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.196	0.048
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.248	0.137
predicted_AVG	0.277	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.272	0.050
predicted_H	0.842	0.142
predicted_HBP	0.088	-
predicted_HR	0.050	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.352	0.000
predicted_R	0.365	-0.042
predicted_RBI	0.118	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.394	0.000
predicted_SO	0.772	-0.006

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.25), rates preserved: AVG=0.259 HR/AB=0.016

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	0.2500	0.3333	0.3125	0.2500	0.0000	0.0000	0.1250	0.1875
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	11.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	2.000	10.000	0.3056	0.3750	0.4722	0.3056	0.0278	0.0556	0.0556	0.2778
season	0.20	27	-	84.000	24.000	4.000	3.000	8.000	11.000	6.000	21.000	0.2857	0.3548	0.4405	0.2857	0.0357	0.0952	0.0714	0.2500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2220
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.3220
predicted_AVG	0.2766
predicted_BB	0.2990
predicted_H	0.9190
predicted_HBP	0.0880
predicted_HR	0.0560
predicted_OBP	0.3522
predicted_R	0.3420
predicted_RBI	0.1280
predicted_SLG	0.3940
predicted_SO	0.7690

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1480	0.2220	0.1961	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1110	3.3220	3.2481	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2770	0.2766	0.2767	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2220	0.2990	0.2721	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7000	0.9190	0.8424	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0880	0.0880	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0560	0.0504	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3520	0.3522	0.3521	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4070	0.3420	0.3648	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1000	0.1280	0.1182	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3940	0.3940	0.3940	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7780	0.7690	0.7722	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.286

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260505_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	664728
playerID	664728
playerName	Kyle Isbel
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	KC
teamID	12

Salvador Perez (521692) · BATTER · DH · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 36

All-history rows before 20260507: 36

System season_avg: 0.2060

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2057

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.139	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.139	0.000	-0.139	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.917	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.917	2.000	-0.917	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.210	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.206	0.000	-0.206	0.000
predicted_BB	0.139	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.139	1.000	-0.139	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.750	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.806	0.000	-0.806	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.139	0.000	-0.139	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.267	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.245	0.250	-0.245	-0.250
predicted_R	0.389	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.389	0.000	0.611	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.750	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.472	1.000	0.528	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.283	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.348	0.000	-0.348	0.000
predicted_SO	0.917	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.917	2.000	-0.917	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.139	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.917	-
predicted_AVG	0.210	-
predicted_BB	0.139	-
predicted_H	0.750	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.267	-
predicted_R	0.389	-
predicted_RBI	0.750	-
predicted_SLG	0.283	-
predicted_SO	0.917	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.108	-0.031
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.762	-0.155
predicted_AVG	0.210	0.000
predicted_BB	0.150	0.011
predicted_H	0.766	0.016
predicted_HBP	0.179	-
predicted_HR	0.059	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.267	0.000
predicted_R	0.439	0.050
predicted_RBI	0.766	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.283	0.000
predicted_SO	1.048	0.131

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.92), rates preserved: AVG=0.195 HR/AB=0.015

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	1.000	1.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.917

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	7.000	0.1765	0.2500	0.1765	0.1765	0.0000	0.2353	0.0588	0.4118
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	10.000	2.000	1.000	9.000	6.000	1.000	8.000	0.2564	0.3023	0.3846	0.2564	0.0256	0.2308	0.0256	0.2051
season	0.20	36	-	141.000	29.000	5.000	5.000	17.000	14.000	5.000	33.000	0.2057	0.2450	0.3475	0.2057	0.0355	0.1206	0.0355	0.2340

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0920
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.6780
predicted_AVG	0.2103
predicted_BB	0.1560
predicted_H	0.7740
predicted_HBP	0.1790
predicted_HR	0.0590
predicted_OBP	0.2673
predicted_R	0.4660
predicted_RBI	0.7750
predicted_SLG	0.2835
predicted_SO	1.1180

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1390	0.0920	0.1084	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9170	3.6780	3.7616	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2100	0.2103	0.2102	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1390	0.1560	0.1501	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7500	0.7740	0.7656	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1790	0.1790	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0590	0.0593	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2670	0.2673	0.2672	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3890	0.4660	0.4390	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7500	0.7750	0.7662	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2830	0.2835	0.2833	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9170	1.1180	1.0477	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	1
HBP	0
season_avg	0.206

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260506_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	521692
playerID	521692
playerName	Salvador Perez
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	KC
teamID	12

Jac Caglianone (695506) · BATTER · RF · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 29

All-history rows before 20260507: 29

System season_avg: 0.2380

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2376

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.172	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.172	0.000	-0.172	0.000
predicted_3B	0.034	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.034	0.000	-0.034	0.000
predicted_AB	3.483	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.483	4.000	0.517	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.213	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.238	0.000	0.012	0.250
predicted_BB	0.379	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.379	0.000	-0.379	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.034	0.000	-0.034	0.000
predicted_H	0.650	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.828	0.000	0.172	1.000
predicted_HR	0.240	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.103	0.000	0.897	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.303	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.325	0.000	-0.075	0.250
predicted_R	0.448	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.448	0.000	0.552	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.480	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	0.207	0.000	1.793	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.474	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SLG	0.396	0.000	0.604	1.000
predicted_SO	1.207	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.207	2.000	-0.207	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.172	-
predicted_3B	0.034	-
predicted_AB	3.483	-
predicted_AVG	0.213	-
predicted_BB	0.379	-
predicted_H	0.650	-
predicted_HR	0.240	-
predicted_OBP	0.303	-
predicted_R	0.448	-
predicted_RBI	0.480	-
predicted_SLG	0.474	-
predicted_SO	1.207	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.105	-0.067
predicted_3B	0.016	-0.018
predicted_AB	3.463	-0.020
predicted_AVG	0.213	0.000
predicted_BB	0.412	0.033
predicted_H	0.707	0.057
predicted_HBP	0.014	-
predicted_HR	0.261	0.021
predicted_OBP	0.303	0.000
predicted_R	0.527	0.079
predicted_RBI	0.522	0.042
predicted_SLG	0.474	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.130	-0.077

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.48), rates preserved: AVG=0.203 HR/AB=0.075

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	2.000	4.000	0.2353	0.3158	0.5882	0.2353	0.1177	0.2353	0.1177	0.2353
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	6.000	5.000	14.000	0.1714	0.2750	0.3714	0.1714	0.0571	0.1143	0.1429	0.4000
season	0.20	29	-	101.000	24.000	5.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	13.000	11.000	35.000	0.2376	0.3246	0.3960	0.2376	0.0297	0.0594	0.1089	0.3465

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0690
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.4520
predicted_AVG	0.2134
predicted_BB	0.4300
predicted_H	0.7370
predicted_HBP	0.0140
predicted_HR	0.2720
predicted_OBP	0.3033
predicted_R	0.5700
predicted_RBI	0.5450
predicted_SLG	0.4739
predicted_SO	1.0880

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1720	0.0690	0.1051	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0340	0.0070	0.0164	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4830	3.4520	3.4629	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2130	0.2134	0.2133	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3790	0.4300	0.4122	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6500	0.7370	0.7066	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0140	0.0140	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2400	0.2720	0.2608	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3030	0.3033	0.3032	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4480	0.5700	0.5273	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4800	0.5450	0.5223	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4740	0.4739	0.4739	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2070	1.0880	1.1297	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.238

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260505_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	695506
playerID	695506
playerName	Jac Caglianone
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	KC
teamID	12

Bobby Witt Jr. (677951) · BATTER · SS · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 37

All-history rows before 20260507: 37

System season_avg: 0.2790

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2789

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.270	0.000	-0.270	0.000
predicted_3B	0.027	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_AB	3.973	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.973	4.000	0.027	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.248	0.750	0.750	Hitting_AVG	0.279	0.000	0.471	0.750
predicted_BB	0.459	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.459	0.000	-0.459	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.054	0.000	-0.054	0.000
predicted_H	0.900	3.000	3.000	Hitting_H	1.108	0.000	1.892	3.000
predicted_HR	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.081	0.000	-0.081	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.279	0.600	0.600	Hitting_OBP	0.349	0.000	0.251	0.600
predicted_R	0.432	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.432	1.000	0.568	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.330	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.432	0.000	0.568	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.324	1.000	-0.324	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.456	0.750	0.750	Hitting_SLG	0.422	0.000	0.328	0.750
predicted_SO	0.838	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.838	1.000	0.162	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.270	-
predicted_3B	0.027	-
predicted_AB	3.973	-
predicted_AVG	0.248	-
predicted_BB	0.459	-
predicted_H	0.900	-
predicted_HR	0.180	-
predicted_OBP	0.279	-
predicted_R	0.432	-
predicted_RBI	0.330	-
predicted_SLG	0.456	-
predicted_SO	0.838	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.212	-0.058
predicted_3B	0.036	0.009
predicted_AB	4.173	0.200
predicted_AVG	0.248	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.293	-0.166
predicted_H	1.004	0.104
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.200	0.020
predicted_OBP	0.279	-0.000
predicted_R	0.723	0.291
predicted_RBI	0.369	0.039
predicted_SLG	0.456	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.036	0.198

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.17), rates preserved: AVG=0.241 HR/AB=0.048

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	1.000	1.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.973

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	22.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.000	7.000	0.2273	0.2273	0.4091	0.2273	0.0454	0.0454	0.0000	0.3182
last_10	0.35	10	-	43.000	11.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	10.000	3.000	10.000	0.2558	0.3043	0.5349	0.2558	0.0698	0.1395	0.0698	0.2326
season	0.20	37	-	147.000	41.000	10.000	1.000	3.000	16.000	16.000	17.000	31.000	0.2789	0.3494	0.4218	0.2789	0.0204	0.1088	0.1157	0.2109

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1810
predicted_3B	0.0410
predicted_AB	4.2800
predicted_AVG	0.2476
predicted_BB	0.2030
predicted_H	1.0600
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.2100
predicted_OBP	0.2787
predicted_R	0.8790
predicted_RBI	0.3900
predicted_SLG	0.4557
predicted_SO	1.1420

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2700	0.1810	0.2122	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0270	0.0410	0.0361	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9730	4.2800	4.1726	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2480	0.2476	0.2477	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4590	0.2030	0.2926	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9000	1.0600	1.0040	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1800	0.2100	0.1995	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2790	0.2787	0.2788	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4320	0.8790	0.7226	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3300	0.3900	0.3690	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4560	0.4557	0.4558	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8380	1.1420	1.0356	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	3
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	1
HBP	0
season_avg	0.279

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260506_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	677951
playerID	677951
playerName	Bobby Witt Jr.
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	KC
teamID	12

Michael Massey (686681) · BATTER · 2B · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 20

All-history rows before 20260507: 20

System season_avg: 0.2260

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2258

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.100	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.100	3.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.217	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.226	0.667	-0.226	-0.667
predicted_BB	0.100	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.100	0.000	0.900	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.550	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.700	2.000	-0.700	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.100	1.000	-0.100	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.222	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.242	0.667	0.008	-0.417
predicted_R	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.350	1.000	-0.350	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.430	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.450	2.000	-0.450	-2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.415	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.403	1.667	-0.403	-1.667
predicted_SO	0.850	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.850	0.000	0.150	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.100	-
predicted_AVG	0.217	-
predicted_BB	0.100	-
predicted_H	0.550	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.222	-
predicted_R	0.350	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.415	-
predicted_SO	0.850	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.191	-0.059
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.360	0.260
predicted_AVG	0.217	0.000
predicted_BB	0.072	-0.028
predicted_H	0.687	0.137
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.161	0.031
predicted_OBP	0.222	0.000
predicted_R	0.420	0.070
predicted_RBI	0.542	0.112
predicted_SLG	0.415	0.000
predicted_SO	0.962	0.112

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.36), rates preserved: AVG=0.205 HR/AB=0.048

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	0.000	6.000	0.1667	0.1667	0.3333	0.1667	0.0556	0.1667	0.0000	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	10.000	3.000	2.000	7.000	6.000	1.000	9.000	0.2778	0.2821	0.5278	0.2778	0.0556	0.1944	0.0278	0.2500
season	0.20	20	-	62.000	14.000	5.000	2.000	9.000	7.000	2.000	17.000	0.2258	0.2424	0.4032	0.2258	0.0323	0.1452	0.0323	0.2742

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1590
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.5000
predicted_AVG	0.2174
predicted_BB	0.0570
predicted_H	0.7610
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1780
predicted_OBP	0.2222
predicted_R	0.4580
predicted_RBI	0.6020
predicted_SLG	0.4154
predicted_SO	1.0230

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.1590	0.1909	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1000	3.5000	3.3600	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2170	0.2174	0.2173	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1000	0.0570	0.0721	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5500	0.7610	0.6872	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1780	0.1612	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2220	0.2222	0.2221	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3500	0.4580	0.4202	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.6020	0.5418	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4150	0.4154	0.4153	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8500	1.0230	0.9624	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.226

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260505_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	686681
playerID	686681
playerName	Michael Massey
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	KC
teamID	12

Vinnie Pasquantino (686469) · BATTER · 1B · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 34

All-history rows before 20260507: 34

System season_avg: 0.1950

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1953

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.118	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.118	0.000	0.882	1.000
predicted_3B	0.059	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_AB	3.765	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.765	4.000	0.235	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.281	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.195	0.250	0.055	0.000
predicted_BB	0.471	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.471	0.000	-0.471	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.970	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.735	1.000	0.265	0.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.328	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.282	0.250	-0.032	0.000
predicted_R	0.441	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.441	0.000	-0.441	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.438	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.352	0.250	0.148	0.250
predicted_SO	0.912	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.912	1.000	0.088	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.118	-
predicted_3B	0.059	-
predicted_AB	3.765	-
predicted_AVG	0.281	-
predicted_BB	0.471	-
predicted_H	0.970	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.328	-
predicted_R	0.441	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.438	-
predicted_SO	0.912	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.185	0.067
predicted_3B	0.053	-0.006
predicted_AB	3.877	0.112
predicted_AVG	0.281	0.000
predicted_BB	0.374	-0.097
predicted_H	1.059	0.089
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.096	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.328	0.000
predicted_R	0.518	0.077
predicted_RBI	0.394	0.034
predicted_SLG	0.438	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.911	-0.001

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.88), rates preserved: AVG=0.273 HR/AB=0.025

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	0.000	5.000	0.2857	0.2857	0.3333	0.2857	0.0000	0.0476	0.0000	0.2381
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	12.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	8.000	6.000	8.000	0.3243	0.4091	0.6216	0.3243	0.0541	0.1622	0.1622	0.2162
season	0.20	34	-	128.000	25.000	4.000	2.000	4.000	17.000	15.000	16.000	31.000	0.1953	0.2819	0.3516	0.1953	0.0312	0.1328	0.1250	0.2422

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2210
predicted_3B	0.0500
predicted_AB	3.9380
predicted_AVG	0.2811
predicted_BB	0.3220
predicted_H	1.1070
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0990
predicted_OBP	0.3281
predicted_R	0.5590
predicted_RBI	0.4120
predicted_SLG	0.4379
predicted_SO	0.9110

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1180	0.2210	0.1850	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0590	0.0500	0.0532	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7650	3.9380	3.8775	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2810	0.2811	0.2811	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4710	0.3220	0.3741	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9700	1.1070	1.0591	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.0990	0.0959	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3280	0.3281	0.3281	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4410	0.5590	0.5177	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.4120	0.3938	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4380	0.4379	0.4379	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9120	0.9110	0.9114	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.195

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260506_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	686469
playerID	686469
playerName	Vinnie Pasquantino
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	KC
teamID	12

Maikel Garcia (672580) · BATTER · 3B · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 34

All-history rows before 20260507: 34

System season_avg: 0.2670

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2667

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.265	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.265	0.000	-0.265	0.000
predicted_3B	0.029	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_AB	3.971	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.971	3.000	1.029	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.236	0.200	0.200	Hitting_AVG	0.267	0.667	-0.067	-0.467
predicted_BB	0.412	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.412	1.000	-0.412	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_H	0.880	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.059	2.000	-0.059	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.088	0.000	-0.088	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.292	0.200	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.331	0.750	-0.131	-0.550
predicted_R	0.529	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.529	0.000	-0.529	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.382	0.000	-0.382	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.359	0.200	0.200	Hitting_SLG	0.415	0.667	-0.215	-0.467
predicted_SO	0.735	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.735	0.000	1.265	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.265	-
predicted_3B	0.029	-
predicted_AB	3.971	-
predicted_AVG	0.236	-
predicted_BB	0.412	-
predicted_H	0.880	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.292	-
predicted_R	0.529	-
predicted_RBI	0.350	-
predicted_SLG	0.359	-
predicted_SO	0.735	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.253	-0.012
predicted_3B	0.036	0.007
predicted_AB	3.927	-0.044
predicted_AVG	0.236	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.383	-0.029
predicted_H	0.906	0.026
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.051	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.292	0.000
predicted_R	0.402	-0.127
predicted_RBI	0.358	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.359	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.604	-0.131

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.97), rates preserved: AVG=0.228 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.971

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	0.2105	0.2727	0.2632	0.2105	0.0000	0.1053	0.1053	0.1053
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	10.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	3.000	6.000	0.2500	0.2955	0.4500	0.2500	0.0250	0.0750	0.0750	0.1500
season	0.20	34	-	135.000	36.000	9.000	1.000	3.000	13.000	18.000	14.000	25.000	0.2667	0.3311	0.4148	0.2667	0.0222	0.0963	0.1037	0.1852

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2470
predicted_3B	0.0400
predicted_AB	3.9040
predicted_AVG	0.2356
predicted_BB	0.3680
predicted_H	0.9200
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0520
predicted_OBP	0.2924
predicted_R	0.3330
predicted_RBI	0.3630
predicted_SLG	0.3589
predicted_SO	0.5340

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2650	0.2470	0.2533	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0290	0.0400	0.0362	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9710	3.9040	3.9274	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2360	0.2356	0.2357	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4120	0.3680	0.3834	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8800	0.9200	0.9060	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0520	0.0513	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2920	0.2924	0.2923	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5290	0.3330	0.4016	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3500	0.3630	0.3584	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3590	0.3589	0.3589	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7350	0.5340	0.6043	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.267

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260506_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	672580
playerID	672580
playerName	Maikel Garcia
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	KC
teamID	12

Carter Jensen (695600) · BATTER · C · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 30

All-history rows before 20260507: 30

System season_avg: 0.2290

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2286

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.067	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.500	2.000	2.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	4.000	-1.500	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.117	1.000	1.000	Hitting_AVG	0.229	0.000	0.771	1.000
predicted_BB	0.433	2.000	2.000	Hitting_BB	0.433	0.000	1.567	2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.370	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.800	0.000	1.200	2.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.212	1.000	1.000	Hitting_OBP	0.317	0.000	0.683	1.000
predicted_R	0.467	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.467	0.000	0.533	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.567	0.000	-0.567	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.155	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SLG	0.419	0.000	0.581	1.000
predicted_SO	1.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.200	4.000	-1.200	-4.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.067	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.117	-
predicted_BB	0.433	-
predicted_H	0.370	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.212	-
predicted_R	0.467	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.155	-
predicted_SO	1.200	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.033	-0.035
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.598	0.098
predicted_AVG	0.117	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.438	0.005
predicted_H	0.406	0.036
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.041	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.212	0.000
predicted_R	0.351	-0.116
predicted_RBI	0.296	0.026
predicted_SLG	0.155	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.466	0.266

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.60), rates preserved: AVG=0.113 HR/AB=0.011

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-2.000
BB	2.000	2.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	9.000	0.0556	0.1500	0.0556	0.0556	0.0000	0.0556	0.1111	0.5000
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	5.000	16.000	0.1316	0.2326	0.1316	0.1316	0.0000	0.0790	0.1316	0.4210
season	0.20	30	-	105.000	24.000	2.000	6.000	17.000	14.000	13.000	36.000	0.2286	0.3167	0.4190	0.2286	0.0571	0.1619	0.1238	0.3429

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0140
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.6500
predicted_AVG	0.1168
predicted_BB	0.4410
predicted_H	0.4260
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.0420
predicted_OBP	0.2122
predicted_R	0.2890
predicted_RBI	0.3100
predicted_SLG	0.1549
predicted_SO	1.6090

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0670	0.0140	0.0325	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5000	3.6500	3.5975	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1170	0.1168	0.1169	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4330	0.4410	0.4382	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3700	0.4260	0.4064	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0420	0.0413	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2120	0.2122	0.2121	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4670	0.2890	0.3513	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.3100	0.2960	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1550	0.1549	0.1549	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2000	1.6090	1.4658	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.229

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	4
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260505_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	695600
playerID	695600
playerName	Carter Jensen
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	KC
teamID	12

Seth Lugo (607625) · PITCHER · Starter · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 7

All-history rows before 20260507: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.857	2.000	0.143	0.000
predicted_IP	5.100	5.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	6.071	6.000	-0.971	-0.900
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	-	Pitching_SO	5.286	6.000	-1.286	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 5.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	32.100	11.000	32.000	11.000	27.000	1.000	3.0619	1.3299	0.3402	0.9897	0.3402	0.8350	0.0309
last_10	0.35	7	43.200	13.000	41.000	13.000	37.000	1.000	2.6794	1.2366	0.2977	0.9389	0.2977	0.8473	0.0229
season	0.20	7	43.200	13.000	41.000	13.000	37.000	1.000	2.6794	1.2366	0.2977	0.9389	0.2977	0.8473	0.0229

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.0070
predicted_ER	2.0070
predicted_ERA	2.8515
predicted_H	6.0910
predicted_HR	0.1680
predicted_IP	6.1000
predicted_SO	5.3310
predicted_WHIP	1.2786

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	2.0070	2.3545	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.0070	2.0046	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.8515	2.8515	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	6.0910	5.0091	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.1680	0.4592	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.1000	6.1000	6.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	4.0000	5.3310	4.8651	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2786	1.2786	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.1
H	3
R	2
ER	2
BB	3
SO	4
HR	1
BF	24
Pitches	106

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	25
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	2.68
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	5
Pitching_H	8
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	103
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	6
Pitching_Strikes	66
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260502_KC@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	607625
playerID	607625
playerName	Seth Lugo
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	KC
teamID	12

Matt Strahm (621381) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 14

All-history rows before 20260507: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.357	0.000	-0.357	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.943	1.000	0.157	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	0.000	0.0000	0.8000	0.0000	0.4000	0.4000	0.8000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	3.000	7.000	5.000	10.000	2.000	2.7000	1.2000	0.3000	0.7000	0.5000	1.0000	0.2000
season	0.20	14	13.200	5.000	10.000	6.000	14.000	2.000	3.2927	1.1707	0.3659	0.7317	0.4390	1.0244	0.1463

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4430
predicted_ER	0.1780
predicted_ERA	1.6035
predicted_H	0.5710
predicted_HR	0.0990
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9150
predicted_WHIP	1.0141

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.4430	0.9879	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1780	0.1157	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.6035	1.6035	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.5710	0.3711	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0990	0.0644	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.0000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9150	0.9447	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0141	1.0141	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	2
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.29
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	7
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	6
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	621381
playerID	621381
playerName	Matt Strahm
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	KC
teamID	12

Nick Mears (683232) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 14

All-history rows before 20260507: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.214	0.000	-0.214	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.821	1.000	0.279	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.714	1.000	0.286	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	0.0000	0.7500	0.0000	0.0000	0.7500	1.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.200	3.000	4.000	6.000	7.000	3.1154	1.1538	0.3462	0.4615	0.6923	0.8077
season	0.20	14	12.200	3.000	6.000	7.000	10.000	2.1316	1.0263	0.2368	0.4737	0.5526	0.7895

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5870
predicted_ER	0.1430
predicted_ERA	1.5167
predicted_H	0.2180
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.7570
predicted_WHIP	0.9466

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5870	0.3816	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1430	0.0929	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.5167	1.5167	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.2180	0.1417	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.0000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.7570	0.8420	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9466	0.9466	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.13
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	8
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	5
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	683232
playerID	683232
playerName	Nick Mears
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	KC
teamID	12

Lucas Erceg (668674) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 16

All-history rows before 20260507: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.375	0.000	0.625	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.900	1.000	0.100	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.875	1.000	-0.875	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	7.000	0.0000	0.8000	0.0000	0.2000	0.6000	1.4000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	4.000	5.000	9.000	11.000	3.7241	1.4483	0.4138	0.5172	0.9310	1.1379
season	0.20	16	15.100	6.000	10.000	11.000	14.000	3.5217	1.3696	0.3913	0.6522	0.7174	0.9130

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.7390
predicted_ER	0.2230
predicted_ERA	2.0078
predicted_H	0.4010
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.2110
predicted_WHIP	1.1408

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.7390	0.4803	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.2230	0.4950	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.0078	2.0078	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.4010	0.9607	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.2110	0.7872	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1408	1.1408	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.52
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	668674
playerID	668674
playerName	Lucas Erceg
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	KC
teamID	12

20260507_MIN@WAS

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "confidence": 0.51, "home_win_probability": 0.49, "away_win_probability": 0.51, "predicted_score_text": "MIN 6 - 5 WAS", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to final winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5, "predicted_score_text": "MIN 7 - 5 WAS", "confidence": 0.51, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score", "final_prediction_synced": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "MIN 7 - 5 WAS", "winner": "MIN"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "MIN 6 - 5 WAS", "winner": "MIN"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": -1, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": -1, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"}}

Away Team: MIN

Tristan Gray (656484) · BATTER · 3B · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 16

All-history rows before 20260507: 16

System season_avg: 0.2360

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2364

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.062	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.438	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.438	3.000	0.562	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.238	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.236	0.000	-0.236	0.000
predicted_BB	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.660	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.812	0.000	-0.812	0.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.188	0.000	-0.188	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.278	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.271	0.000	-0.271	0.000
predicted_R	0.437	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.438	0.000	-0.438	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.260	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.812	0.000	-0.812	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.331	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.418	0.000	-0.418	0.000
predicted_SO	1.250	3.000	3.000	Hitting_SO	1.250	1.000	1.750	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.062	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.438	-
predicted_AVG	0.238	-
predicted_BB	0.125	-
predicted_H	0.660	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.278	-
predicted_R	0.437	-
predicted_RBI	0.260	-
predicted_SLG	0.331	-
predicted_SO	1.250	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.030	-0.032
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.487	0.049
predicted_AVG	0.238	0.000
predicted_BB	0.143	0.018
predicted_H	0.775	0.115
predicted_HBP	0.046	-
predicted_HR	0.096	0.016
predicted_OBP	0.278	0.000
predicted_R	0.522	0.085
predicted_RBI	0.307	0.047
predicted_SLG	0.331	0.000
predicted_SO	1.186	-0.064

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.49), rates preserved: AVG=0.222 HR/AB=0.028

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	0.2353	0.2778	0.2353	0.2353	0.0000	0.0000	0.0588	0.2941
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	9.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	6.000	1.000	13.000	0.2432	0.2821	0.4054	0.2432	0.0541	0.1351	0.0270	0.3513
season	0.20	16	-	55.000	13.000	1.000	3.000	13.000	7.000	2.000	20.000	0.2364	0.2712	0.4182	0.2364	0.0546	0.2364	0.0364	0.3636

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0130
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.5130
predicted_AVG	0.2383
predicted_BB	0.1520
predicted_H	0.8370
predicted_HBP	0.0460
predicted_HR	0.1050
predicted_OBP	0.2780
predicted_R	0.5680
predicted_RBI	0.3320
predicted_SLG	0.3314
predicted_SO	1.1520

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0620	0.0130	0.0301	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4380	3.5130	3.4868	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2380	0.2383	0.2382	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1250	0.1520	0.1426	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6600	0.8370	0.7751	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0460	0.0460	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.1050	0.0963	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2780	0.2780	0.2780	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4370	0.5680	0.5222	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2600	0.3320	0.3068	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3310	0.3314	0.3313	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2500	1.1520	1.1863	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.236

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260506_MIN@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	656484
playerID	656484
playerName	Tristan Gray
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	MIN
teamID	17

Austin Martin (668885) · BATTER · LF · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 22

All-history rows before 20260507: 22

System season_avg: 0.3190

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3194

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.136	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.136	0.000	-0.136	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.273	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.273	5.000	1.727	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.338	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.319	0.200	-0.319	-0.200
predicted_BB	0.818	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.818	0.000	-0.818	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_H	1.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.045	1.000	-1.045	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.045	0.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.428	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.462	0.200	-0.462	-0.200
predicted_R	0.455	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.455	1.000	-0.455	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.210	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.273	0.000	-0.273	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.364	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.403	0.200	-0.403	-0.200
predicted_SO	0.636	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.636	0.000	-0.636	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.136	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.273	-
predicted_AVG	0.338	-
predicted_BB	0.818	-
predicted_H	1.020	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.428	-
predicted_R	0.455	-
predicted_RBI	0.210	-
predicted_SLG	0.364	-
predicted_SO	0.636	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.091	-0.045
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.560	0.287
predicted_AVG	0.338	0.000
predicted_BB	0.680	-0.138
predicted_H	1.173	0.153
predicted_HBP	0.021	-
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.428	-0.000
predicted_R	0.351	-0.104
predicted_RBI	0.239	0.029
predicted_SLG	0.364	0.000
predicted_SO	0.589	-0.047

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.56), rates preserved: AVG=0.330 HR/AB=0.003

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	7.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	0.3500	0.4091	0.3500	0.3500	0.0000	0.0500	0.1000	0.1000
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	12.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	7.000	7.000	0.3333	0.4318	0.3611	0.3333	0.0000	0.0833	0.1944	0.1944
season	0.20	22	-	72.000	23.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	10.000	18.000	14.000	0.3194	0.4624	0.4028	0.3194	0.0139	0.0833	0.2500	0.1944

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0670
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7150
predicted_AVG	0.3380
predicted_BB	0.6060
predicted_H	1.2560
predicted_HBP	0.0210
predicted_HR	0.0100
predicted_OBP	0.4277
predicted_R	0.2950
predicted_RBI	0.2540
predicted_SLG	0.3644
predicted_SO	0.5640

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1360	0.0670	0.0912	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2730	3.7150	3.5603	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3380	0.3380	0.3380	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.8180	0.6060	0.6802	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0200	1.2560	1.1734	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0210	0.0210	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0100	0.0100	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4280	0.4277	0.4278	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4550	0.2950	0.3510	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2100	0.2540	0.2386	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3640	0.3644	0.3643	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6360	0.5640	0.5892	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.319

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260505_MIN@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	668885
playerID	668885
playerName	Austin Martin
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	MIN
teamID	17

Luke Keaschall (807712) · BATTER · 2B · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 35

All-history rows before 20260507: 35

System season_avg: 0.2330

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2331

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.229	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.229	1.000	0.771	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.800	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.800	3.000	-0.800	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.303	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.233	0.333	0.100	0.000
predicted_BB	0.371	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.371	0.000	0.629	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.020	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.886	1.000	0.114	0.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.430	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.302	0.333	0.198	0.167
predicted_R	0.486	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.486	1.000	0.514	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.280	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.429	0.000	0.571	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.229	0.000	-0.229	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.492	0.667	0.667	Hitting_SLG	0.316	0.667	0.351	0.000
predicted_SO	0.629	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.629	0.000	-0.629	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.229	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.800	-
predicted_AVG	0.303	-
predicted_BB	0.371	-
predicted_H	1.020	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.430	-
predicted_R	0.486	-
predicted_RBI	0.280	-
predicted_SLG	0.492	-
predicted_SO	0.629	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.473	0.244
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.452	-0.348
predicted_AVG	0.303	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.647	0.276
predicted_H	0.999	-0.021
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.007	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.430	0.000
predicted_R	0.655	0.169
predicted_RBI	0.277	-0.003
predicted_SLG	0.492	0.000
predicted_SO	0.575	-0.054

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.80), rates preserved: AVG=0.263 HR/AB=0.002

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	5.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	5.000	2.000	0.3333	0.5000	0.6000	0.3333	0.0000	0.0667	0.3333	0.1333
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	10.000	5.000	0.000	3.000	5.000	7.000	7.000	0.3030	0.4146	0.4545	0.3030	0.0000	0.0909	0.2121	0.2121
season	0.20	35	-	133.000	31.000	8.000	1.000	15.000	17.000	13.000	22.000	0.2331	0.3020	0.3158	0.2331	0.0075	0.1128	0.0977	0.1654

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.6040
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.2650
predicted_AVG	0.3027
predicted_BB	0.7960
predicted_H	0.9880
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0050
predicted_OBP	0.4305
predicted_R	0.7460
predicted_RBI	0.2750
predicted_SLG	0.4922
predicted_SO	0.5460

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2290	0.6040	0.4728	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8000	3.2650	3.4523	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3030	0.3027	0.3028	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3710	0.7960	0.6473	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0200	0.9880	0.9992	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0050	0.0067	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4300	0.4305	0.4303	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4860	0.7460	0.6550	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2800	0.2750	0.2768	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4920	0.4922	0.4921	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6290	0.5460	0.5751	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.233

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260506_MIN@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	807712
playerID	807712
playerName	Luke Keaschall
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	MIN
teamID	17

Kody Clemens (665019) · BATTER · 1B · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 22

All-history rows before 20260507: 22

System season_avg: 0.2080

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2078

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.500	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	2.000	-0.500	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.191	0.667	0.667	Hitting_AVG	0.208	0.000	0.459	0.667
predicted_BB	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_H	0.580	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.727	0.000	1.273	2.000
predicted_HR	0.060	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.136	0.000	0.864	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.363	0.750	0.750	Hitting_OBP	0.330	0.000	0.420	0.750
predicted_R	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	3.000	3.000	Hitting_RBI	0.409	0.000	2.591	3.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.310	1.667	1.667	Hitting_SLG	0.377	0.000	1.290	1.667
predicted_SO	1.091	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.091	1.000	-0.091	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.191	-
predicted_BB	0.500	-
predicted_H	0.580	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.363	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.310	-
predicted_SO	1.091	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.193	0.011
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.250	-0.250
predicted_AVG	0.191	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.601	0.101
predicted_H	0.589	0.009
predicted_HBP	0.190	-
predicted_HR	0.058	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.363	0.000
predicted_R	0.709	0.209
predicted_RBI	0.367	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.310	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.027	-0.064

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.168 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	3.000	3.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	4.000	5.000	0.1429	0.3684	0.2143	0.1429	0.0000	0.0714	0.2857	0.3571
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	8.000	2.000	1.000	6.000	7.000	5.000	9.000	0.2424	0.3750	0.3939	0.2424	0.0303	0.1818	0.1515	0.2727
season	0.20	22	-	77.000	16.000	4.000	3.000	9.000	11.000	11.000	24.000	0.2078	0.3297	0.3766	0.2078	0.0390	0.1169	0.1429	0.3117

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1990
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.1150
predicted_AVG	0.1907
predicted_BB	0.6550
predicted_H	0.5940
predicted_HBP	0.1900
predicted_HR	0.0570
predicted_OBP	0.3630
predicted_R	0.8210
predicted_RBI	0.3710
predicted_SLG	0.3096
predicted_SO	0.9920

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1820	0.1990	0.1930	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5000	3.1150	3.2497	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1910	0.1907	0.1908	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5000	0.6550	0.6008	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5800	0.5940	0.5891	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1900	0.1900	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0570	0.0580	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3630	0.3630	0.3630	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.8210	0.7087	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.3710	0.3671	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3100	0.3096	0.3097	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0910	0.9920	1.0267	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	3
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.208

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260506_MIN@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	665019
playerID	665019
playerName	Kody Clemens
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	MIN
teamID	17

Byron Buxton (621439) · BATTER · CF · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 34

All-history rows before 20260507: 34

System season_avg: 0.2450

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2448

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.147	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.147	0.000	-0.147	0.000
predicted_3B	0.029	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_AB	4.206	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.206	3.000	-0.206	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.247	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.245	0.000	0.255	0.500
predicted_BB	0.294	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.294	0.000	0.706	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.980	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	1.029	0.000	0.971	2.000
predicted_HR	0.520	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.324	0.000	0.676	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.307	0.600	0.600	Hitting_OBP	0.301	0.000	0.299	0.600
predicted_R	0.765	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.765	0.000	0.235	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.960	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.664	1.250	1.250	Hitting_SLG	0.524	0.000	0.726	1.250
predicted_SO	1.147	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.147	1.000	-1.147	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.147	-
predicted_3B	0.029	-
predicted_AB	4.206	-
predicted_AVG	0.247	-
predicted_BB	0.294	-
predicted_H	0.980	-
predicted_HR	0.520	-
predicted_OBP	0.307	-
predicted_R	0.765	-
predicted_RBI	0.960	-
predicted_SLG	0.664	-
predicted_SO	1.147	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.092	-0.055
predicted_3B	0.014	-0.015
predicted_AB	4.144	-0.062
predicted_AVG	0.247	0.000
predicted_BB	0.327	0.033
predicted_H	1.004	0.024
predicted_HBP	0.012	-
predicted_HR	0.537	0.017
predicted_OBP	0.307	0.000
predicted_R	0.701	-0.064
predicted_RBI	0.983	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.664	0.000
predicted_SO	0.884	-0.263

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.21), rates preserved: AVG=0.239 HR/AB=0.128

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 4.206

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	6.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	0.2000	0.2727	0.6500	0.2000	0.1500	0.3000	0.1000	0.1500
last_10	0.35	10	-	42.000	13.000	1.000	0.000	6.000	10.000	7.000	3.000	7.000	0.3095	0.3556	0.7619	0.3095	0.1429	0.2381	0.0714	0.1667
season	0.20	34	-	143.000	35.000	5.000	1.000	11.000	17.000	26.000	10.000	39.000	0.2448	0.3013	0.5245	0.2448	0.0769	0.1189	0.0699	0.2727

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0630
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	4.1110
predicted_AVG	0.2473
predicted_BB	0.3450
predicted_H	1.0170
predicted_HBP	0.0120
predicted_HR	0.5460
predicted_OBP	0.3074
predicted_R	0.6670
predicted_RBI	0.9950
predicted_SLG	0.6641
predicted_SO	0.7420

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1470	0.0630	0.0924	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0290	0.0060	0.0140	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.2060	4.1110	4.1442	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2470	0.2473	0.2472	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2940	0.3450	0.3271	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9800	1.0170	1.0040	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0120	0.0120	form_only
predicted_HR	0.5200	0.5460	0.5369	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3070	0.3074	0.3073	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7650	0.6670	0.7013	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.9600	0.9950	0.9828	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6640	0.6641	0.6641	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1470	0.7420	0.8838	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.245

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260506_MIN@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	621439
playerID	621439
playerName	Byron Buxton
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	MIN
teamID	17

Matt Wallner (670242) · BATTER · RF · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 29

All-history rows before 20260507: 29

System season_avg: 0.1900

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1905

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.103	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.103	0.000	-0.103	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.621	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.621	3.000	0.379	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.216	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.190	0.667	0.060	-0.417
predicted_BB	0.345	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.345	0.000	0.655	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.034	0.000	-0.034	0.000
predicted_H	0.710	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.690	2.000	0.310	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.150	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.138	1.000	0.862	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.307	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.286	0.667	0.114	-0.267
predicted_R	0.448	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.448	1.000	0.552	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.460	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.345	2.000	0.655	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.392	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SLG	0.333	1.667	0.667	-0.667
predicted_SO	1.414	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.414	0.000	-0.414	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.103	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.621	-
predicted_AVG	0.216	-
predicted_BB	0.345	-
predicted_H	0.710	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.307	-
predicted_R	0.448	-
predicted_RBI	0.460	-
predicted_SLG	0.392	-
predicted_SO	1.414	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.131	0.028
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.506	-0.115
predicted_AVG	0.216	0.000
predicted_BB	0.315	-0.030
predicted_H	0.732	0.022
predicted_HBP	0.153	-
predicted_HR	0.152	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.307	-0.000
predicted_R	0.317	-0.131
predicted_RBI	0.474	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.392	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.150	-0.264

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.62), rates preserved: AVG=0.202 HR/AB=0.042

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.2353	0.3158	0.4706	0.2353	0.0588	0.1765	0.0588	0.2941
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	4.000	8.000	0.2059	0.3077	0.3235	0.2059	0.0294	0.1177	0.1177	0.2353
season	0.20	29	-	105.000	20.000	3.000	4.000	10.000	13.000	10.000	41.000	0.1905	0.2857	0.3333	0.1905	0.0381	0.0952	0.0952	0.3905

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1460
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.4440
predicted_AVG	0.2160
predicted_BB	0.2990
predicted_H	0.7440
predicted_HBP	0.1530
predicted_HR	0.1530
predicted_OBP	0.3069
predicted_R	0.2470
predicted_RBI	0.4810
predicted_SLG	0.3917
predicted_SO	1.0080

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1030	0.1460	0.1310	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6210	3.4440	3.5059	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2160	0.2160	0.2160	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3450	0.2990	0.3151	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7100	0.7440	0.7321	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1530	0.1530	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1530	0.1520	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3070	0.3069	0.3069	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4480	0.2470	0.3174	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4600	0.4810	0.4737	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3920	0.3917	0.3918	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4140	1.0080	1.1501	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260506_MIN@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	670242
playerID	670242
playerName	Matt Wallner
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	MIN
teamID	17

Ryan Jeffers (680777) · BATTER · C · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 25

All-history rows before 20260507: 25

System season_avg: 0.2860

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2857

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.120	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.120	1.000	0.880	0.000
predicted_3B	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.040	0.000	-0.040	0.000
predicted_AB	3.640	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.640	4.000	0.360	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.296	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.286	0.250	0.214	0.250
predicted_BB	0.560	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.560	1.000	0.440	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.990	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	1.040	1.000	0.960	1.000
predicted_HR	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.160	0.000	-0.160	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.355	0.600	0.600	Hitting_OBP	0.383	0.400	0.217	0.200
predicted_R	0.720	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.720	1.000	0.280	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.660	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.840	0.000	-0.840	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.040	0.000	-0.040	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.490	0.750	0.750	Hitting_SLG	0.473	0.500	0.277	0.250
predicted_SO	0.760	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.760	0.000	1.240	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.120	-
predicted_3B	0.040	-
predicted_AB	3.640	-
predicted_AVG	0.296	-
predicted_BB	0.560	-
predicted_H	0.990	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.355	-
predicted_R	0.720	-
predicted_RBI	0.660	-
predicted_SLG	0.490	-
predicted_SO	0.760	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.138	0.018
predicted_3B	0.019	-0.021
predicted_AB	3.759	0.119
predicted_AVG	0.296	0.000
predicted_BB	0.470	-0.090
predicted_H	1.082	0.092
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.184	0.014
predicted_OBP	0.355	0.000
predicted_R	0.762	0.042
predicted_RBI	0.725	0.065
predicted_SLG	0.490	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.781	0.021

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.76), rates preserved: AVG=0.288 HR/AB=0.049

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 25

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	1.000	4.000	0.3000	0.3182	0.5000	0.3000	0.0500	0.1500	0.0500	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	11.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	9.000	8.000	6.000	8.000	0.2973	0.3864	0.4865	0.2973	0.0541	0.2432	0.1622	0.2162
season	0.20	25	-	91.000	26.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	21.000	18.000	14.000	19.000	0.2857	0.3832	0.4725	0.2857	0.0440	0.2308	0.1538	0.2088

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1470
predicted_3B	0.0080
predicted_AB	3.8230
predicted_AVG	0.2962
predicted_BB	0.4210
predicted_H	1.1320
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.1920
predicted_OBP	0.3551
predicted_R	0.7850
predicted_RBI	0.7600
predicted_SLG	0.4898
predicted_SO	0.7930

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1200	0.1470	0.1376	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0400	0.0080	0.0192	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6400	3.8230	3.7590	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2960	0.2962	0.2961	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5600	0.4210	0.4697	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9900	1.1320	1.0823	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.1920	0.1843	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3550	0.3551	0.3551	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7200	0.7850	0.7623	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6600	0.7600	0.7250	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4900	0.4898	0.4899	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7600	0.7930	0.7814	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	25
Season rows before report date	25
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	25
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.286

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260505_MIN@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	680777
playerID	680777
playerName	Ryan Jeffers
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	MIN
teamID	17

Brooks Lee (686797) · BATTER · SS · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 32

All-history rows before 20260507: 32

System season_avg: 0.2540

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2542

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.125	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.125	0.000	0.875	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.688	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.688	4.000	0.312	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.298	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.254	0.000	-0.004	0.250
predicted_BB	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.031	0.000	-0.031	0.000
predicted_H	0.900	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.938	0.000	0.062	1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.156	0.000	-0.156	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.321	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.307	0.000	-0.057	0.250
predicted_R	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.580	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.594	0.000	-0.594	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.420	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.415	0.000	0.085	0.500
predicted_SO	0.750	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.750	0.000	0.250	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.688	-
predicted_AVG	0.298	-
predicted_BB	0.250	-
predicted_H	0.900	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.321	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.580	-
predicted_SLG	0.420	-
predicted_SO	0.750	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.221	0.096
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.827	0.139
predicted_AVG	0.298	0.000
predicted_BB	0.167	-0.083
predicted_H	1.071	0.171
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.062	0.012
predicted_OBP	0.321	0.000
predicted_R	0.609	0.109
predicted_RBI	0.695	0.115
predicted_SLG	0.420	0.000
predicted_SO	0.753	0.003

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.83), rates preserved: AVG=0.280 HR/AB=0.016

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	7.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	4.000	0.000	4.000	0.3500	0.3500	0.4500	0.3500	0.0000	0.2000	0.0000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	10.000	2.000	1.000	8.000	6.000	2.000	7.000	0.2564	0.2927	0.3846	0.2564	0.0256	0.2051	0.0513	0.1795
season	0.20	32	-	118.000	30.000	4.000	5.000	19.000	16.000	8.000	24.000	0.2542	0.3071	0.4153	0.2542	0.0424	0.1610	0.0678	0.2034

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2720
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.9020
predicted_AVG	0.2981
predicted_BB	0.1230
predicted_H	1.1630
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.0680
predicted_OBP	0.3214
predicted_R	0.6670
predicted_RBI	0.7570
predicted_SLG	0.4202
predicted_SO	0.7550

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1250	0.2720	0.2206	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6880	3.9020	3.8271	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2980	0.2981	0.2981	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2500	0.1230	0.1674	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9000	1.1630	1.0710	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0680	0.0617	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3210	0.3214	0.3213	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.6670	0.6086	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5800	0.7570	0.6951	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4200	0.4202	0.4201	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7500	0.7550	0.7532	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.254

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260506_MIN@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	686797
playerID	686797
playerName	Brooks Lee
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	MIN
teamID	17

Trevor Larnach (663616) · BATTER · DH · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 24

All-history rows before 20260507: 24

System season_avg: 0.2840

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2840

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_3B	0.042	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.042	0.000	-0.042	0.000
predicted_AB	3.375	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.375	4.000	1.625	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.277	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.284	0.000	-0.284	0.000
predicted_BB	0.667	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.850	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.958	0.000	-0.958	0.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.042	0.000	-0.042	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.355	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.402	0.000	-0.402	0.000
predicted_R	0.583	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.583	0.000	-0.583	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.458	0.000	-0.458	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.042	0.000	-0.042	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.397	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.420	0.000	-0.420	0.000
predicted_SO	0.708	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.708	1.000	1.292	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.042	-
predicted_AB	3.375	-
predicted_AVG	0.277	-
predicted_BB	0.667	-
predicted_H	0.850	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.355	-
predicted_R	0.583	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.397	-
predicted_SO	0.708	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.305	0.055
predicted_3B	0.043	0.001
predicted_AB	3.596	0.221
predicted_AVG	0.277	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.532	-0.135
predicted_H	0.965	0.115
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.009	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.355	0.000
predicted_R	0.548	-0.035
predicted_RBI	0.473	0.053
predicted_SLG	0.397	0.000
predicted_SO	0.711	0.003

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.60), rates preserved: AVG=0.268 HR/AB=0.003

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 24

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	4.000	0.2632	0.3333	0.3684	0.2632	0.0000	0.1579	0.1053	0.2105
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	11.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	4.000	4.000	6.000	0.2895	0.3571	0.4211	0.2895	0.0000	0.1053	0.1053	0.1579
season	0.20	24	-	81.000	23.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	11.000	14.000	16.000	17.000	0.2840	0.4021	0.4198	0.2839	0.0123	0.1358	0.1975	0.2099

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3340
predicted_3B	0.0430
predicted_AB	3.7150
predicted_AVG	0.2766
predicted_BB	0.4600
predicted_H	1.0270
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0090
predicted_OBP	0.3554
predicted_R	0.5290
predicted_RBI	0.5020
predicted_SLG	0.3971
predicted_SO	0.7130

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.3340	0.3046	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0420	0.0430	0.0427	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3750	3.7150	3.5960	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2770	0.2766	0.2767	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6670	0.4600	0.5325	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8500	1.0270	0.9650	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0090	0.0094	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3550	0.3554	0.3553	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5830	0.5290	0.5479	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.5020	0.4733	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3970	0.3971	0.3971	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7080	0.7130	0.7112	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	24
Season rows before report date	24
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	24
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.284

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260506_MIN@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	663616
playerID	663616
playerName	Trevor Larnach
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	MIN
teamID	17

Simeon Woods Richardson (680573) · PITCHER · Starter · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 7

All-history rows before 20260507: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	4.000	4.000	-	Pitching_ER	3.571	4.000	0.429	0.000
predicted_IP	3.200	3.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.786	4.200	-1.586	-1.000
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	-	Pitching_SO	2.429	2.000	1.571	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 3.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	23.000	22.000	37.000	11.000	11.000	6.000	8.6087	2.0870	0.9565	1.6087	0.4783	0.4783	0.2609
last_10	0.35	7	34.200	25.000	47.000	14.000	17.000	8.000	6.4904	1.7596	0.7211	1.3558	0.4038	0.4904	0.2308
season	0.20	7	34.200	25.000	47.000	14.000	17.000	8.000	6.4904	1.7596	0.7211	1.3558	0.4038	0.4904	0.2308

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.1210
predicted_ER	4.0110
predicted_ERA	7.4436
predicted_H	7.1280
predicted_HR	1.1850
predicted_IP	5.0000
predicted_SO	2.3520
predicted_WHIP	1.9069

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	2.1210	2.4287	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	4.0000	4.0110	4.0072	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	7.4436	7.4436	form_only
predicted_H	7.0000	7.1280	7.0832	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	1.1850	1.1202	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	3.2000	5.0000	4.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	4.0000	2.3520	2.9288	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.9069	1.9069	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	3.2
H	7
R	4
ER	4
BB	3
SO	4
HR	1
BF	22
Pitches	99

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	25
Pitching_ER	4
Pitching_ERA	6.49
Pitching_Flyouts	6
Pitching_Groundouts	6
Pitching_H	9
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	4.2
Pitching_Pitches	88
Pitching_R	6
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	60
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260501_TOR@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	680573
playerID	680573
playerName	Simeon Woods Richardson
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	MIN
teamID	17

Andrew Morris (702193) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 7

All-history rows before 20260507: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.286	1.000	-1.286	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.971	0.200	-0.771	1.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	2.000	1.000	-1.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	11.100	5.000	11.000	2.000	10.000	1.000	3.9706	1.1471	0.4412	0.9706	0.1765	0.8823	0.0882
last_10	0.35	7	15.200	9.000	20.000	4.000	14.000	1.000	5.1702	1.5319	0.5745	1.2766	0.2553	0.8936	0.0638
season	0.20	7	15.200	9.000	20.000	4.000	14.000	1.000	5.1702	1.5319	0.5745	1.2766	0.2553	0.8936	0.0638

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5130
predicted_ER	1.2000
predicted_ERA	4.6304
predicted_H	2.6570
predicted_HR	0.1750
predicted_IP	2.1000
predicted_SO	2.0730
predicted_WHIP	1.3587

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5130	0.3335	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	1.2000	0.7800	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.6304	4.6304	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	2.6570	1.7270	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1750	0.1137	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	2.1000	2.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	2.0730	1.6974	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3587	1.3587	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	5.17
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_MIN@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	702193
playerID	702193
playerName	Andrew Morris
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIN
teamID	17

Justin Topa (623437) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 21

All-history rows before 20260507: 21

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.667	6.000	0.333	-5.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.643	0.200	0.457	0.900
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.619	1.000	0.381	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	9.000	10.000	3.000	3.000	3.000	18.6923	3.0000	2.0769	2.3077	0.6923	0.6923	0.6923
last_10	0.35	10	8.100	10.000	13.000	4.000	8.000	3.000	10.8000	2.0400	1.2000	1.5600	0.4800	0.9600	0.3600
season	0.20	21	17.000	14.000	23.000	8.000	13.000	4.000	7.4118	1.8235	0.8235	1.3529	0.4706	0.7647	0.2353

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4680
predicted_ER	1.2410
predicted_ERA	13.6739
predicted_H	1.5150
predicted_HR	0.3960
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.6540
predicted_WHIP	2.4287

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4680	0.3042	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	1.2410	1.1566	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	13.6739	13.6739	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.5150	0.9848	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.3960	0.2574	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	0.2000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.6540	0.7751	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	2.4287	2.4287	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	8
Pitching_ER	6
Pitching_ERA	7.88
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	32
Pitching_R	6
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	18
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_MIN@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	623437
playerID	623437
playerName	Justin Topa
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIN
teamID	17

Eric Orze (679358) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 15

All-history rows before 20260507: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.600	1.000	-0.600	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.987	1.000	0.013	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.067	1.000	-1.067	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	5.000	7.000	4.000	6.000	7.5000	1.8333	0.8333	1.1667	0.6667	1.0000
last_10	0.35	10	11.000	8.000	13.000	5.000	12.000	6.5455	1.6364	0.7273	1.1818	0.4546	1.0909
season	0.20	15	16.200	9.000	16.000	8.000	16.000	4.8600	1.4400	0.5400	0.9600	0.4800	0.9600

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6380
predicted_ER	0.8480
predicted_ERA	6.6379
predicted_H	1.3000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1770
predicted_WHIP	1.6857

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.6380	0.7647	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.8480	0.5512	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	6.6379	6.6379	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.3000	0.8450	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.1770	0.7651	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.6857	1.6857	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	4.86
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_MIN@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	679358
playerID	679358
playerName	Eric Orze
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIN
teamID	17

Taylor Rogers (573124) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 15

All-history rows before 20260507: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.533	1.000	-0.533	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.740	2.100	0.260	-1.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.667	3.000	0.333	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	2.000	7.000	2.000	3.000	3.1765	1.5882	0.3529	1.2353	0.3529	0.5294
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	3.000	12.000	5.000	7.000	2.6129	1.6452	0.2903	1.1613	0.4839	0.6774
season	0.20	14	13.200	5.000	16.000	5.000	10.000	3.2927	1.5366	0.3659	1.1707	0.3659	0.7317

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4010
predicted_ER	0.3340
predicted_ERA	3.0025
predicted_H	1.1960
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.6220
predicted_WHIP	1.5978

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4010	0.2607	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3340	0.2171	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.0025	3.0025	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.1960	0.7774	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.6220	0.7543	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5978	1.5978	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	12
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	5.27
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.1
Pitching_Pitches	32
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	23
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_TOR@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	573124
playerID	573124
playerName	Taylor Rogers
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIN
teamID	17

Kody Funderburk (681892) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 17

All-history rows before 20260507: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.235	1.000	-0.235	-1.000
predicted_IP	0.100	0.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.624	1.000	-0.524	-0.900
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.588	2.000	1.412	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 0.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	2.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	3.3750	0.9375	0.3750	0.1875	0.7500	0.3750	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	2.000	3.000	6.000	4.000	0.000	1.9286	0.9643	0.2143	0.3214	0.6429	0.4286	0.0000
season	0.20	17	14.100	4.000	8.000	11.000	10.000	1.000	2.5116	1.3256	0.2791	0.5581	0.7674	0.6977	0.0698

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.7160
predicted_ER	0.3000
predicted_ERA	2.6961
predicted_H	0.3090
predicted_HR	0.0140
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.4580
predicted_WHIP	1.0245

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.7160	0.4654	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3000	0.1950	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.6961	2.6961	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.3090	0.2009	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0140	0.0091	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	1.0000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.4580	0.9977	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0245	1.0245	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	2.51
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_MIN@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	681892
playerID	681892
playerName	Kody Funderburk
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIN
teamID	17

Home Team: WAS

CJ Abrams (682928) · BATTER · SS · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 35

All-history rows before 20260507: 35

System season_avg: 0.3020

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3016

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.171	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.171	2.000	-0.171	-2.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.600	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.600	5.000	0.400	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.316	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.302	0.600	-0.052	-0.350
predicted_BB	0.486	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.486	0.000	-0.486	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.057	0.000	-0.057	0.000
predicted_H	1.040	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.086	3.000	-0.086	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.257	1.000	-0.257	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.386	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.404	0.600	-0.154	-0.350
predicted_R	0.600	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.600	2.000	0.400	-1.000
predicted_RBI	1.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.943	5.000	-0.943	-5.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.572	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.563	1.600	-0.313	-1.350
predicted_SO	0.743	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.743	0.000	0.257	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.171	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.600	-
predicted_AVG	0.316	-
predicted_BB	0.486	-
predicted_H	1.040	-
predicted_HR	0.190	-
predicted_OBP	0.386	-
predicted_R	0.600	-
predicted_RBI	1.120	-
predicted_SLG	0.572	-
predicted_SO	0.743	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.267	0.096
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.681	0.081
predicted_AVG	0.316	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.442	-0.044
predicted_H	1.129	0.089
predicted_HBP	0.035	-
predicted_HR	0.204	0.014
predicted_OBP	0.386	-0.000
predicted_R	0.715	0.115
predicted_RBI	1.218	0.098
predicted_SLG	0.572	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.773	0.030

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.68), rates preserved: AVG=0.307 HR/AB=0.055

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	7.000	5.000	2.000	4.000	0.3158	0.3810	0.5789	0.3158	0.0526	0.3684	0.1053	0.2105
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	12.000	3.000	2.000	13.000	6.000	4.000	8.000	0.3243	0.3810	0.5676	0.3243	0.0541	0.3513	0.1081	0.2162
season	0.20	35	-	126.000	38.000	6.000	9.000	33.000	21.000	17.000	26.000	0.3016	0.4040	0.5635	0.3016	0.0714	0.2619	0.1349	0.2064

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3180
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7250
predicted_AVG	0.3159
predicted_BB	0.4180
predicted_H	1.1770
predicted_HBP	0.0350
predicted_HR	0.2120
predicted_OBP	0.3856
predicted_R	0.7770
predicted_RBI	1.2710
predicted_SLG	0.5719
predicted_SO	0.7890

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1710	0.3180	0.2666	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6000	3.7250	3.6813	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3160	0.3159	0.3159	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4860	0.4180	0.4418	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0400	1.1770	1.1290	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0350	0.0350	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1900	0.2120	0.2043	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3860	0.3856	0.3857	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6000	0.7770	0.7150	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	1.1200	1.2710	1.2182	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5720	0.5719	0.5719	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7430	0.7890	0.7729	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.302

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	2
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.6
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	5
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	8
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260506_MIN@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	682928
playerID	682928
playerName	CJ Abrams
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	WAS
teamID	30

Jose Fernandez (699912) · BATTER · DH · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 0

All-history rows before 20260507: 0

System season_avg: 0.3150

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): -

Diff (system - data): -

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	-	-	-	-
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	-	-	-	-
predicted_AB	3.708	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	-	-	-	-
predicted_AVG	0.229	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	-	-	-	-
predicted_BB	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	-	-	-	-
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	-	-	-	-
predicted_H	0.750	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	-	-	-	-
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	-	-	-	-
predicted_OBP	0.329	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	-	-	-	-
predicted_R	0.792	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	-	-	-	-
predicted_RBI	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	-	-	-	-
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	-	-	-	-
predicted_SLG	0.296	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	-	-	-	-
predicted_SO	0.833	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	-	-	-	-

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.708	-
predicted_AVG	0.229	-
predicted_BB	0.167	-
predicted_H	0.750	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.329	-
predicted_R	0.792	-
predicted_RBI	0.190	-
predicted_SLG	0.296	-
predicted_SO	0.833	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.081	-0.044
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.512	-0.196
predicted_AVG	0.229	0.000
predicted_BB	0.292	0.125
predicted_H	0.770	0.020
predicted_HBP	0.138	-
predicted_HR	0.055	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.329	-0.000
predicted_R	0.696	-0.096
predicted_RBI	0.193	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.296	0.000
predicted_SO	0.711	-0.122

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.208 HR/AB=0.015

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 24

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	0.1250	0.2632	0.1250	0.1250	0.0000	0.0000	0.1250	0.1875
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	11.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	9.000	4.000	6.000	0.3143	0.4000	0.4286	0.3143	0.0286	0.0857	0.1143	0.1714
season	0.20	24	-	89.000	28.000	3.000	3.000	12.000	19.000	4.000	20.000	0.3146	0.3511	0.4494	0.3146	0.0337	0.1348	0.0449	0.2247

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0570
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.4070
predicted_AVG	0.2292
predicted_BB	0.3590
predicted_H	0.7810
predicted_HBP	0.1380
predicted_HR	0.0570
predicted_OBP	0.3287
predicted_R	0.6440
predicted_RBI	0.1940
predicted_SLG	0.2961
predicted_SO	0.6450

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1250	0.0570	0.0808	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7080	3.4070	3.5124	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2290	0.2292	0.2291	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1670	0.3590	0.2918	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7500	0.7810	0.7702	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1380	0.1380	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0570	0.0546	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3290	0.3287	0.3288	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7920	0.6440	0.6958	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1900	0.1940	0.1926	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2960	0.2961	0.2961	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8330	0.6450	0.7108	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	0
Season rows before report date	0
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	24
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.315

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

No historical data found for this player before report date.

Daylen Lile (695734) · BATTER · LF · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 36

All-history rows before 20260507: 36

System season_avg: 0.2430

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2431

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	3.000	0.000	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.134	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.243	0.000	-0.243	0.000
predicted_BB	0.444	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.444	2.000	0.556	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_H	0.490	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.972	0.000	-0.972	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.274	0.200	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.319	0.400	-0.119	-0.200
predicted_R	0.667	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.667	2.000	-0.667	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.389	0.000	-0.389	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.056	1.000	-0.056	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.235	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.368	0.000	-0.368	0.000
predicted_SO	0.833	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.833	1.000	-0.833	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.134	-
predicted_BB	0.444	-
predicted_H	0.490	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.274	-
predicted_R	0.667	-
predicted_RBI	0.070	-
predicted_SLG	0.235	-
predicted_SO	0.833	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.288	0.038
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.675	-0.325
predicted_AVG	0.134	0.000
predicted_BB	0.595	0.151
predicted_H	0.476	-0.014
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.017	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.274	-0.000
predicted_R	0.764	0.097
predicted_RBI	0.069	-0.001
predicted_SLG	0.235	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.994	0.161

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.119 HR/AB=0.004

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	2.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	4.000	5.000	0.1250	0.3000	0.2500	0.1250	0.0000	0.0000	0.2500	0.3125
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	3.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	9.000	6.000	13.000	0.0833	0.2143	0.1389	0.0833	0.0000	0.0000	0.1667	0.3611
season	0.20	36	-	144.000	35.000	9.000	3.000	14.000	24.000	16.000	30.000	0.2431	0.3187	0.3681	0.2431	0.0208	0.0972	0.1111	0.2083

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3090
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.5000
predicted_AVG	0.1340
predicted_BB	0.6760
predicted_H	0.4690
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0150
predicted_OBP	0.2737
predicted_R	0.8170
predicted_RBI	0.0680
predicted_SLG	0.2347
predicted_SO	1.0800

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.3090	0.2883	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0000	3.5000	3.6750	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1340	0.1340	0.1340	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4440	0.6760	0.5948	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4900	0.4690	0.4763	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0150	0.0168	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2740	0.2737	0.2738	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6670	0.8170	0.7645	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0700	0.0680	0.0687	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2350	0.2347	0.2348	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8330	1.0800	0.9936	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.243

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260506_MIN@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	695734
playerID	695734
playerName	Daylen Lile
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	WAS
teamID	30

Curtis Mead (678554) · BATTER · 1B · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 14

All-history rows before 20260507: 14

System season_avg: 0.2640

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2642

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.357	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.357	0.000	0.643	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.786	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.786	3.000	0.214	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.304	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.264	0.000	0.236	0.500
predicted_BB	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.500	2.000	-0.500	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.050	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000
predicted_HR	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.214	0.000	-0.214	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.420	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.361	0.400	0.139	0.100
predicted_R	0.714	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.714	1.000	0.286	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.530	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.643	0.000	-0.643	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.593	0.750	0.750	Hitting_SLG	0.528	0.000	0.222	0.750
predicted_SO	0.714	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.714	2.000	-0.714	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.357	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.786	-
predicted_AVG	0.304	-
predicted_BB	0.500	-
predicted_H	1.050	-
predicted_HR	0.190	-
predicted_OBP	0.420	-
predicted_R	0.714	-
predicted_RBI	0.530	-
predicted_SLG	0.593	-
predicted_SO	0.714	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.438	0.081
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.770	-0.016
predicted_AVG	0.304	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.575	0.075
predicted_H	1.110	0.060
predicted_HBP	0.139	-
predicted_HR	0.199	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.420	-0.000
predicted_R	0.875	0.161
predicted_RBI	0.558	0.028
predicted_SLG	0.593	0.000
predicted_SO	0.655	-0.059

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.293 HR/AB=0.052

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	7.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	3.000	3.000	0.3684	0.4783	0.6842	0.3684	0.0526	0.1579	0.1579	0.1579
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	9.000	4.000	2.000	5.000	8.000	7.000	6.000	0.2432	0.3778	0.5135	0.2432	0.0541	0.1351	0.1892	0.1622
season	0.20	14	-	53.000	14.000	5.000	3.000	9.000	10.000	7.000	10.000	0.2642	0.3607	0.5283	0.2641	0.0566	0.1698	0.1321	0.1887

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.4810
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7620
predicted_AVG	0.3037
predicted_BB	0.6160
predicted_H	1.1430
predicted_HBP	0.1390
predicted_HR	0.2030
predicted_OBP	0.4196
predicted_R	0.9610
predicted_RBI	0.5730
predicted_SLG	0.5933
predicted_SO	0.6230

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3570	0.4810	0.4376	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7860	3.7620	3.7704	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3040	0.3037	0.3038	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5000	0.6160	0.5754	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0500	1.1430	1.1104	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1390	0.1390	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1900	0.2030	0.1985	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4200	0.4196	0.4197	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7140	0.9610	0.8746	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5300	0.5730	0.5579	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5930	0.5933	0.5932	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7140	0.6230	0.6549	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.264

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260506_MIN@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	678554
playerID	678554
playerName	Curtis Mead
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	WAS
teamID	30

Keibert Ruiz (660688) · BATTER · C · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 19

All-history rows before 20260507: 19

System season_avg: 0.1770

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1774

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.263	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.263	0.000	-0.263	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.263	2.000	2.000	Hitting_AB	3.263	4.000	-1.263	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.176	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.177	0.000	-0.177	0.000
predicted_BB	0.053	2.000	2.000	Hitting_BB	0.053	0.000	1.947	2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.470	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.579	0.000	-0.579	0.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.189	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.200	0.000	0.300	0.500
predicted_R	0.211	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.211	0.000	-0.211	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.368	0.000	-0.368	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.285	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.306	0.000	-0.306	0.000
predicted_SO	0.579	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.579	2.000	-0.579	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.263	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.263	-
predicted_AVG	0.176	-
predicted_BB	0.053	-
predicted_H	0.470	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.189	-
predicted_R	0.211	-
predicted_RBI	0.090	-
predicted_SLG	0.285	-
predicted_SO	0.579	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.310	0.047
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.348	0.085
predicted_AVG	0.176	0.000
predicted_BB	0.026	-0.027
predicted_H	0.552	0.083
predicted_HBP	0.048	-
predicted_HR	0.011	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.189	0.000
predicted_R	0.127	-0.084
predicted_RBI	0.106	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.285	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.670	0.091

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.35), rates preserved: AVG=0.165 HR/AB=0.003

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-1.000
BB	2.000	2.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	3.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	0.1667	0.1667	0.2778	0.1667	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.2222
last_10	0.35	10	-	32.000	6.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	7.000	0.1875	0.2121	0.2812	0.1875	0.0000	0.0312	0.0000	0.2188
season	0.20	19	-	62.000	11.000	5.000	1.000	7.000	4.000	1.000	11.000	0.1774	0.2000	0.3065	0.1774	0.0161	0.1129	0.0161	0.1774

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3360
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.3930
predicted_AVG	0.1761
predicted_BB	0.0110
predicted_H	0.5970
predicted_HBP	0.0480
predicted_HR	0.0110
predicted_OBP	0.1893
predicted_R	0.0810
predicted_RBI	0.1140
predicted_SLG	0.2847
predicted_SO	0.7190

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2630	0.3360	0.3105	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2630	3.3930	3.3475	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1760	0.1761	0.1761	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0530	0.0110	0.0257	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4700	0.5970	0.5525	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0480	0.0480	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0110	0.0106	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1890	0.1893	0.1892	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2110	0.0810	0.1265	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0900	0.1140	0.1056	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2850	0.2847	0.2848	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5790	0.7190	0.6700	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.177

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260505_MIN@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	660688
playerID	660688
playerName	Keibert Ruiz
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	WAS
teamID	30

Nasim Nuñez (683083) · BATTER · 2B · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 31

All-history rows before 20260507: 31

System season_avg: 0.2190

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2190

Diff (system - data): -0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.032	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.032	0.000	-0.032	0.000
predicted_3B	0.032	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.032	1.000	-0.032	-1.000
predicted_AB	3.387	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.387	4.000	0.613	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.297	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.219	0.250	0.031	0.000
predicted_BB	0.484	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.484	0.000	-0.484	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.065	0.000	-0.065	0.000
predicted_H	0.820	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.742	1.000	0.258	0.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.375	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.322	0.250	-0.072	0.000
predicted_R	0.484	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.484	0.000	0.516	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.520	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	0.419	1.000	1.581	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.452	0.000	-0.452	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.382	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.248	0.750	0.002	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.742	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.742	1.000	-0.742	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.032	-
predicted_3B	0.032	-
predicted_AB	3.387	-
predicted_AVG	0.297	-
predicted_BB	0.484	-
predicted_H	0.820	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.375	-
predicted_R	0.484	-
predicted_RBI	0.520	-
predicted_SLG	0.382	-
predicted_SO	0.742	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.015	-0.017
predicted_3B	0.097	0.065
predicted_AB	3.267	-0.120
predicted_AVG	0.297	0.000
predicted_BB	0.429	-0.055
predicted_H	0.906	0.086
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.375	-0.000
predicted_R	0.440	-0.044
predicted_RBI	0.574	0.054
predicted_SLG	0.382	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.550	-0.192

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.39), rates preserved: AVG=0.267 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	0.3125	0.3529	0.4375	0.3125	0.1875	0.0625	0.0625
last_10	0.35	10	-	31.000	10.000	0.000	1.000	7.000	4.000	6.000	6.000	0.3226	0.4324	0.3871	0.3226	0.2258	0.1935	0.1935
season	0.20	31	-	105.000	23.000	1.000	1.000	13.000	15.000	15.000	23.000	0.2190	0.3223	0.2476	0.2190	0.1238	0.1429	0.2190

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0060
predicted_3B	0.1320
predicted_AB	3.2020
predicted_AVG	0.2973
predicted_BB	0.3990
predicted_H	0.9520
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.3746
predicted_R	0.4160
predicted_RBI	0.6030
predicted_SLG	0.3819
predicted_SO	0.4470

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0320	0.0060	0.0151	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0320	0.1320	0.0970	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3870	3.2020	3.2668	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2970	0.2973	0.2972	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4840	0.3990	0.4288	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8200	0.9520	0.9058	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3750	0.3746	0.3747	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4840	0.4160	0.4398	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5200	0.6030	0.5739	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3820	0.3819	0.3819	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7420	0.4470	0.5503	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.219

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	1
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260506_MIN@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	683083
playerID	683083
playerName	Nasim Nuñez
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	WAS
teamID	30

Brady House (691781) · BATTER · 3B · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 28

All-history rows before 20260507: 28

System season_avg: 0.2220

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2222

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.179	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.179	1.000	-0.179	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.179	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.179	5.000	-0.179	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.206	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.222	0.400	-0.222	-0.400
predicted_BB	0.321	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.321	0.000	-0.321	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.780	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.929	2.000	-0.929	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.179	1.000	-0.179	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.276	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.278	0.400	-0.278	-0.400
predicted_R	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.500	2.000	-0.500	-2.000
predicted_RBI	1.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.607	3.000	-0.607	-3.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.488	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.393	1.200	-0.393	-1.200
predicted_SO	1.321	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.321	0.000	0.679	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.179	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.179	-
predicted_AVG	0.206	-
predicted_BB	0.321	-
predicted_H	0.780	-
predicted_HR	0.300	-
predicted_OBP	0.276	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	1.130	-
predicted_SLG	0.488	-
predicted_SO	1.321	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-0.012
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.063	-0.116
predicted_AVG	0.206	0.000
predicted_BB	0.363	0.042
predicted_H	0.809	0.029
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.314	0.014
predicted_OBP	0.276	0.000
predicted_R	0.553	0.053
predicted_RBI	1.172	0.042
predicted_SLG	0.488	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.246	-0.075

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.18), rates preserved: AVG=0.194 HR/AB=0.075

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 4.179

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	8.000	3.000	2.000	5.000	0.2000	0.2727	0.5500	0.2000	0.1000	0.4000	0.1000	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	8.000	1.000	3.000	10.000	6.000	4.000	14.000	0.2051	0.2791	0.4615	0.2051	0.0769	0.2564	0.1026	0.3590
season	0.20	28	-	117.000	26.000	5.000	5.000	17.000	14.000	9.000	37.000	0.2222	0.2778	0.3932	0.2222	0.0427	0.1453	0.0769	0.3162

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1600
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.0010
predicted_AVG	0.2062
predicted_BB	0.3850
predicted_H	0.8250
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.3220
predicted_OBP	0.2760
predicted_R	0.5810
predicted_RBI	1.1950
predicted_SLG	0.4877
predicted_SO	1.2060

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1790	0.1600	0.1667	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1790	4.0010	4.0633	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2060	0.2062	0.2061	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3210	0.3850	0.3626	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7800	0.8250	0.8093	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3000	0.3220	0.3143	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2760	0.2760	0.2760	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.5810	0.5526	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	1.1300	1.1950	1.1723	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4880	0.4877	0.4878	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3210	1.2060	1.2462	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.222

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	6
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260506_MIN@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	691781
playerID	691781
playerName	Brady House
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	WAS
teamID	30

James Wood (695578) · BATTER · RF · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 37

All-history rows before 20260507: 37

System season_avg: 0.2390

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2394

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.216	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.216	0.000	-0.216	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.838	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.838	4.000	0.162	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.234	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.239	0.500	0.011	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.865	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.865	1.000	0.135	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_H	0.840	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.919	2.000	0.081	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.270	0.000	0.730	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.317	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.386	0.600	0.014	-0.200
predicted_R	0.865	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.865	2.000	0.135	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.580	3.000	3.000	Hitting_RBI	0.730	2.000	2.270	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.189	2.000	-0.189	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.329	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SLG	0.507	0.500	0.493	0.500
predicted_SO	1.568	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.568	2.000	0.432	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.216	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.838	-
predicted_AVG	0.234	-
predicted_BB	0.865	-
predicted_H	0.840	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.317	-
predicted_R	0.865	-
predicted_RBI	0.580	-
predicted_SLG	0.329	-
predicted_SO	1.568	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.208	-0.008
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.877	0.039
predicted_AVG	0.234	0.000
predicted_BB	0.614	-0.251
predicted_H	0.887	0.047
predicted_HBP	0.011	-
predicted_HR	0.053	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.317	0.000
predicted_R	0.671	-0.194
predicted_RBI	0.611	0.031
predicted_SLG	0.329	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.608	0.040

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.88), rates preserved: AVG=0.229 HR/AB=0.014

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	3.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.838

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	8.000	0.2500	0.2857	0.3000	0.2500	0.0000	0.1500	0.0500	0.4000
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	8.000	2.000	0.000	6.000	6.000	6.000	17.000	0.2105	0.3182	0.2632	0.2105	0.0000	0.1579	0.1579	0.4474
season	0.20	37	-	142.000	34.000	8.000	10.000	27.000	32.000	32.000	58.000	0.2394	0.3864	0.5070	0.2394	0.0704	0.1901	0.2253	0.4084

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2030
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.8980
predicted_AVG	0.2341
predicted_BB	0.4790
predicted_H	0.9120
predicted_HBP	0.0110
predicted_HR	0.0550
predicted_OBP	0.3172
predicted_R	0.5660
predicted_RBI	0.6270
predicted_SLG	0.3285
predicted_SO	1.6300

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2160	0.2030	0.2076	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8380	3.8980	3.8770	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2340	0.2341	0.2341	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.8650	0.4790	0.6141	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8400	0.9120	0.8868	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0110	0.0110	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0550	0.0533	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3170	0.3172	0.3171	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8650	0.5660	0.6706	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5800	0.6270	0.6106	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3290	0.3285	0.3287	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.5680	1.6300	1.6083	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	3
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.239

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	2
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260506_MIN@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	695578
playerID	695578
playerName	James Wood
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	WAS
teamID	30

Jacob Young (696285) · BATTER · CF · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 31

All-history rows before 20260507: 31

System season_avg: 0.2270

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2269

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.129	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.129	0.000	-0.129	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.839	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.839	5.000	0.161	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.211	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.227	0.400	0.023	-0.150
predicted_BB	0.161	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.161	0.000	-0.161	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.032	0.000	-0.032	0.000
predicted_H	0.700	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.871	2.000	0.129	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.065	0.000	-0.065	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.233	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.264	0.400	-0.014	-0.150
predicted_R	0.419	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.419	2.000	-0.419	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.452	0.000	-0.452	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.032	0.000	-0.032	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.237	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.311	0.400	-0.061	-0.150
predicted_SO	0.806	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.806	0.000	1.194	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.129	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.839	-
predicted_AVG	0.211	-
predicted_BB	0.161	-
predicted_H	0.700	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.233	-
predicted_R	0.419	-
predicted_RBI	0.170	-
predicted_SLG	0.237	-
predicted_SO	0.806	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.086	-0.043
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.855	0.016
predicted_AVG	0.211	0.000
predicted_BB	0.125	-0.036
predicted_H	0.775	0.075
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.012	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.233	-0.000
predicted_R	0.386	-0.033
predicted_RBI	0.190	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.237	0.000
predicted_SO	1.011	0.205

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.85), rates preserved: AVG=0.201 HR/AB=0.003

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.839

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	6.000	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.3000
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	8.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	12.000	0.2162	0.2564	0.2432	0.2162	0.0000	0.0811	0.0541	0.3243
season	0.20	31	-	119.000	27.000	4.000	2.000	14.000	13.000	5.000	25.000	0.2269	0.2640	0.3109	0.2269	0.0168	0.1177	0.0420	0.2101

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0630
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.8630
predicted_AVG	0.2111
predicted_BB	0.1060
predicted_H	0.8150
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0130
predicted_OBP	0.2325
predicted_R	0.3680
predicted_RBI	0.2010
predicted_SLG	0.2373
predicted_SO	1.1220

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1290	0.0630	0.0861	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8390	3.8630	3.8546	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2110	0.2111	0.2111	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1610	0.1060	0.1253	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7000	0.8150	0.7747	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0130	0.0119	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2330	0.2325	0.2327	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4190	0.3680	0.3858	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1700	0.2010	0.1902	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2370	0.2373	0.2372	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8060	1.1220	1.0114	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.227

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260506_MIN@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	696285
playerID	696285
playerName	Jacob Young
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	WAS
teamID	30

Jake Irvin (663623) · PITCHER · Starter · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 7

All-history rows before 20260507: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_ER	2.714	3.000	0.286	0.000
predicted_IP	2.200	2.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.886	5.000	-2.686	-2.800
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	-	Pitching_SO	5.571	5.000	-1.571	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 2.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	25.200	11.000	19.000	12.000	28.000	2.000	3.8571	1.2078	0.4286	0.7403	0.4675	1.0909	0.0779
last_10	0.35	7	34.200	19.000	30.000	15.000	39.000	4.000	4.9327	1.2981	0.5481	0.8654	0.4327	1.1250	0.1154
season	0.20	7	34.200	19.000	30.000	15.000	39.000	4.000	4.9327	1.2981	0.5481	0.8654	0.4327	1.1250	0.1154

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.2420
predicted_ER	2.4720
predicted_ERA	4.4487
predicted_H	4.0450
predicted_HR	0.4930
predicted_IP	5.0000
predicted_SO	5.5480
predicted_WHIP	1.2575

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	2.2420	2.5073	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	2.4720	2.6568	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.4487	4.4487	form_only
predicted_H	6.0000	4.0450	4.7292	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.4930	0.6704	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	2.2000	5.0000	4.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	4.0000	5.5480	5.0062	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2575	1.2575	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.2
H	6
R	3
ER	3
BB	3
SO	4
HR	1
BF	21
Pitches	96

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	4
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	25
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	4.93
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	6
Pitching_H	6
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.0
Pitching_Pitches	98
Pitching_R	4
Pitching_SO	5
Pitching_Strikes	60
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260501_MIL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	663623
playerID	663623
playerName	Jake Irvin
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	WAS
teamID	30

Gus Varland (681402) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 14

All-history rows before 20260507: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.357	1.000	-0.357	-1.000
predicted_IP	2.100	2.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.786	0.200	1.314	1.900
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 2.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	2.000	6.000	0.000	4.000	0.000	3.8571	1.2857	0.4286	1.2857	0.0000	0.8571	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	2.000	10.000	1.000	9.000	0.000	1.9286	1.1786	0.2143	1.0714	0.1071	0.9643	0.0000
season	0.20	14	13.100	5.000	15.000	3.000	14.000	1.000	3.3750	1.3500	0.3750	1.1250	0.2250	1.0500	0.0750

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.0820
predicted_ER	0.3430
predicted_ERA	3.0857
predicted_H	1.1790
predicted_HR	0.0150
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9330
predicted_WHIP	1.2611

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.0820	0.4033	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3430	0.2230	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.0857	3.0857	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.1790	1.1164	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0150	0.0097	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	2.1000	1.0000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9330	0.9565	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2611	1.2611	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	24

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	3.38
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	9
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	5
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_MIL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	681402
playerID	681402
playerName	Gus Varland
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	WAS
teamID	30

Richard Lovelady (663992) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 7

All-history rows before 20260507: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.800	0.200	0.400	1.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	0.000	5.000	2.000	4.000	0.000	0.0000	1.7500	0.0000	1.2500	0.5000	1.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	2.000	9.000	6.000	9.000	0.000	1.7419	1.4516	0.1935	0.8710	0.5806	0.8710	0.0000
season	0.20	13	14.100	4.000	15.000	9.000	13.000	1.000	2.5116	1.6744	0.2791	1.0465	0.6279	0.9070	0.0698

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4710
predicted_ER	0.1050
predicted_ERA	1.1120
predicted_H	0.9150
predicted_HR	0.0120
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.7960
predicted_WHIP	1.6304

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4710	0.3061	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1050	0.0683	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.1120	1.1120	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9150	0.5948	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0120	0.0078	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.0000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.7960	0.8674	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.6304	1.6304	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.51
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_MIL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	663992
playerID	663992
playerName	Richard Lovelady
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	WAS
teamID	30

Orlando Ribalta (687377) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 4

All-history rows before 20260507: 4

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.250	1.000	-0.250	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.750	1.000	1.250	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 4

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	4	4.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	2.2500	1.0000	0.2500	0.5000	0.5000	0.7500
last_10	0.35	4	4.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	2.2500	1.0000	0.2500	0.5000	0.5000	0.7500
season	0.20	4	4.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	2.2500	1.0000	0.2500	0.5000	0.5000	0.7500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5000
predicted_ER	0.2500
predicted_ERA	2.2500
predicted_H	0.5000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.7500
predicted_WHIP	1.0000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5000	0.3250	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2500	0.1625	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.2500	2.2500	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.5000	0.3250	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.7500	1.1875	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0000	1.0000	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	4
Season rows before report date	4
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	4
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	2.25
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	34
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	20
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_MIN@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	687377
playerID	687377
playerName	Orlando Ribalta
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	WAS
teamID	30

PJ Poulin (676571) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 17

All-history rows before 20260507: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.412	0.000	-0.412	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.841	2.000	0.159	-1.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.706	2.000	0.294	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	2.000	4.000	2.000	4.000	0.000	3.1765	1.0588	0.3529	0.7059	0.3529	0.7059	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	3.000	9.000	2.000	6.000	1.000	2.5312	1.0312	0.2812	0.8438	0.1875	0.5625	0.0938
season	0.20	17	17.100	7.000	14.000	9.000	12.000	3.000	3.6346	1.3269	0.4038	0.8077	0.5192	0.6923	0.1731

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3280
predicted_ER	0.3380
predicted_ERA	3.0423
predicted_H	0.7740
predicted_HR	0.0670
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.6530
predicted_WHIP	1.1028

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3280	0.2132	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3380	0.2197	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.0423	3.0423	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7740	0.5031	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0670	0.0436	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.6530	0.7745	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1028	1.1028	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	8
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.63
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	36
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	23
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_MIL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	676571
playerID	676571
playerName	PJ Poulin
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	WAS
teamID	30

Brad Lord (695418) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 11

All-history rows before 20260507: 11

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.909	1.000	2.091	2.000
predicted_IP	0.100	0.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.982	2.000	-1.882	-1.900
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.455	2.000	-0.455	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 0.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	11.000	2.000	9.000	2.000	6.000	0.000	1.6364	1.0000	0.1818	0.8182	0.1818	0.5454	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	21.100	9.000	19.000	6.000	15.000	3.000	3.7969	1.1719	0.4219	0.8906	0.2812	0.7031	0.1406
season	0.20	11	23.200	10.000	23.000	6.000	16.000	3.000	3.8028	1.2254	0.4225	0.9718	0.2535	0.6761	0.1268

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4970
predicted_ER	0.6750
predicted_ERA	2.8259
predicted_H	1.8800
predicted_HR	0.1600
predicted_IP	2.0000
predicted_SO	1.3480
predicted_WHIP	1.1052

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.4970	0.6730	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	0.6750	1.4887	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.8259	2.8259	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	1.8800	1.9220	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	2.0000	0.1600	0.8040	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	2.0000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.3480	1.2262	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1052	1.1052	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.1
H	2
R	3
ER	3
BB	1
SO	1
HR	2
BF	6
Pitches	27

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	12
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	3.80
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	50
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	30
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260502_MIL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	695418
playerID	695418
playerName	Brad Lord
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	WAS
teamID	30

20260507_NYM@COL

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 3, "confidence": 0.58, "home_win_probability": 0.42000000000000004, "away_win_probability": 0.58, "predicted_score_text": "NYM 6 - 3 COL", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to final winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "predicted_score_text": "NYM 5 - 4 COL", "confidence": 0.58, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score", "final_prediction_synced": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "NYM 5 - 4 COL", "winner": "NYM"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "NYM 6 - 3 COL", "winner": "NYM"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 1, "home_run_delta": -1, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"}}

Away Team: NYM

Vidal Bruján (660644) · BATTER · SS · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 0

All-history rows before 20260507: 0

System season_avg: 0.0000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): -

Diff (system - data): -

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	-	-	-	-
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	-	-	-	-
predicted_AB	0.000	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	-	-	-	-
predicted_AVG	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	-	-	-	-
predicted_BB	0.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	-	-	-	-
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	-	-	-	-
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	-	-	-	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	-	-	-	-
predicted_OBP	0.000	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	-	-	-	-
predicted_R	0.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	-	-	-	-
predicted_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	-	-	-	-
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	-	-	-	-
predicted_SLG	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	-	-	-	-
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	-	-	-	-

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw XGBoost model output

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	0.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.000	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.000	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.000	-
predicted_SLG	0.000	-
predicted_SO	0.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.473	2.473
predicted_AVG	0.000	0.000
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.000	0.000
predicted_R	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.000	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.47), rates preserved: AVG=0.000 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 0

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Total PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
last_10	0.35	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
season	0.20	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.8040
predicted_BB	0.0000
predicted_H	0.0000
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_R	0.0000
predicted_RBI	0.0000
predicted_SO	0.0000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	0.0000	3.8040	2.4726	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.0000	-	0.0000	model_only
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.0000	-	0.0000	model_only
predicted_R	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.0000	-	0.0000	model_only
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	0
Season rows before report date	0
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	0
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.0

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

No historical data found for this player before report date.

Juan Soto (665742) · BATTER · DH · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 20

All-history rows before 20260507: 20

System season_avg: 0.2890

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2895

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.800	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.800	4.000	1.200	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.226	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.289	0.250	-0.289	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.650	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.650	0.000	-0.650	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_H	0.810	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.100	1.000	-1.100	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.200	1.000	-0.200	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.330	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.389	0.200	-0.389	-0.200
predicted_R	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	2.000	-0.500	-2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.446	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.700	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.700	0.000	0.300	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.800	-
predicted_AVG	0.226	-
predicted_BB	0.650	-
predicted_H	0.810	-
predicted_HR	0.230	-
predicted_OBP	0.330	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.446	-
predicted_SO	0.700	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-0.057
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.755	-0.045
predicted_AVG	0.226	0.000
predicted_BB	0.647	-0.003
predicted_H	0.832	0.022
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.234	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.330	0.000
predicted_R	0.576	0.076
predicted_RBI	0.450	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.446	0.000
predicted_SO	0.868	0.168

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.80), rates preserved: AVG=0.219 HR/AB=0.062

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=16.0, BvP AVG=0.125)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	6.000	0.1579	0.2609	0.3158	0.1579	0.0526	0.1053	0.1579	0.3158
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	10.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	7.000	7.000	8.000	0.2778	0.3864	0.5833	0.2778	0.0833	0.1389	0.1944	0.2222
season	0.20	20	-	76.000	22.000	4.000	4.000	10.000	10.000	13.000	14.000	0.2895	0.3889	0.5000	0.2895	0.0526	0.1316	0.1711	0.1842

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1120
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7300
predicted_AVG	0.2262
predicted_BB	0.6460
predicted_H	0.8440
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.2360
predicted_OBP	0.3304
predicted_R	0.6170
predicted_RBI	0.4560
predicted_SLG	0.4463
predicted_SO	0.9580

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.1120	0.1428	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8000	3.7300	3.7545	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2260	0.2262	0.2261	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6500	0.6460	0.6474	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8100	0.8440	0.8321	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2300	0.2360	0.2339	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3300	0.3304	0.3303	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.6170	0.5760	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.4560	0.4504	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4460	0.4463	0.4462	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7000	0.9580	0.8677	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.289

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260506_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	665742
playerID	665742
playerName	Juan Soto
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	NYM
teamID	18

Andy Ibáñez (628451) · BATTER · LF · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 1

All-history rows before 20260507: 1

System season_avg: 0.1540

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.0000

Diff (system - data): 0.1540

System opponent_avg: -

System season_avg diverges from 2026 season-to-date by 0.1540. This usually means mixed-season window logic.

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.600	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	2.000	2.000	2.000	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.154	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.000	0.000	0.250	0.250
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.360	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.154	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.000	0.000	0.250	0.250
predicted_R	0.200	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.530	3.000	3.000	Hitting_RBI	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.154	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.000	0.000	0.500	0.500
predicted_SO	0.200	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.600	-
predicted_AVG	0.154	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.360	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.154	-
predicted_R	0.200	-
predicted_RBI	0.530	-
predicted_SLG	0.154	-
predicted_SO	0.200	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.600	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.154	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.386	0.026
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.154	-0.000
predicted_R	0.200	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.576	0.045
predicted_SLG	0.154	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.200	0.000

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.60), rates preserved: AVG=0.148 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	3.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 5

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total RBI	Total R	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	13.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	0.1538	0.1538	0.1538	0.1538	0.2308	0.0769
last_10	0.35	5	-	13.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	0.1538	0.1538	0.1538	0.1538	0.2308	0.0769
season	0.20	5	-	13.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	0.1538	0.1538	0.1538	0.1538	0.2308	0.0769

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.6000
predicted_AVG	0.1538
predicted_BB	0.0000
predicted_H	0.4000
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.1538
predicted_R	0.2000
predicted_RBI	0.6000
predicted_SLG	0.1538
predicted_SO	0.2000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.6000	2.6000	2.6000	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1540	0.1538	0.1539	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3600	0.4000	0.3860	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1540	0.1538	0.1539	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5300	0.6000	0.5755	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1540	0.1538	0.1539	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	5
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	3
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.154

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260502_NYM@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	628451
playerID	628451
playerName	Andy Ibáñez
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	NYM
teamID	18

Marcus Semien (543760) · BATTER · 2B · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 36

All-history rows before 20260507: 36

System season_avg: 0.2310

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2308

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	1.000	-0.167	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.611	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.611	5.000	-0.611	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.264	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.231	0.800	0.103	-0.467
predicted_BB	0.222	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.222	0.000	0.778	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_H	0.870	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.833	4.000	0.167	-3.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.056	1.000	-0.056	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.281	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.279	0.800	0.221	-0.300
predicted_R	0.306	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.306	3.000	0.694	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.510	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.361	2.000	-0.361	-2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.409	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.323	1.600	0.010	-1.267
predicted_SO	0.778	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.778	0.000	-0.778	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.611	-
predicted_AVG	0.264	-
predicted_BB	0.222	-
predicted_H	0.870	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.281	-
predicted_R	0.306	-
predicted_RBI	0.510	-
predicted_SLG	0.409	-
predicted_SO	0.778	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.161	-0.006
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.768	0.157
predicted_AVG	0.264	0.000
predicted_BB	0.132	-0.090
predicted_H	0.966	0.096
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.126	0.016
predicted_OBP	0.281	-0.000
predicted_R	0.490	0.184
predicted_RBI	0.569	0.059
predicted_SLG	0.409	0.000
predicted_SO	0.790	0.012

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.77), rates preserved: AVG=0.256 HR/AB=0.033

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=17.0, BvP AVG=0.353)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	0.000	4.000	0.3000	0.3000	0.5000	0.3000	0.0500	0.2000	0.0000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	9.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	5.000	1.000	8.000	0.2368	0.2564	0.3421	0.2368	0.0263	0.1316	0.0263	0.2105
season	0.20	36	-	130.000	30.000	6.000	2.000	13.000	11.000	8.000	28.000	0.2308	0.2786	0.3231	0.2308	0.0154	0.1000	0.0615	0.2154

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1580
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.8520
predicted_AVG	0.2640
predicted_BB	0.0830
predicted_H	1.0170
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.1340
predicted_OBP	0.2805
predicted_R	0.5890
predicted_RBI	0.6010
predicted_SLG	0.4094
predicted_SO	0.7960

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.1580	0.1612	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6110	3.8520	3.7676	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2640	0.2640	0.2640	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2220	0.0830	0.1316	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8700	1.0170	0.9655	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1340	0.1256	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2810	0.2805	0.2807	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3060	0.5890	0.4899	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5100	0.6010	0.5692	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4090	0.4094	0.4093	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7780	0.7960	0.7897	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.231

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.8
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	4
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	3
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	8
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260506_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	543760
playerID	543760
playerName	Marcus Semien
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	NYM
teamID	18

Francisco Alvarez (682626) · BATTER · C · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 28

All-history rows before 20260507: 28

System season_avg: 0.2290

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2292

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.107	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.107	0.000	0.893	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.429	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.429	4.000	-0.429	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.223	0.667	0.667	Hitting_AVG	0.229	0.500	0.438	0.167
predicted_BB	0.357	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.357	1.000	0.643	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.660	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.786	2.000	1.214	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.268	0.750	0.750	Hitting_OBP	0.312	0.600	0.438	0.150
predicted_R	0.357	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.357	1.000	0.643	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.321	1.000	-0.321	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.295	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SLG	0.385	0.500	0.615	0.500
predicted_SO	0.821	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.821	0.000	0.179	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.107	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.429	-
predicted_AVG	0.223	-
predicted_BB	0.357	-
predicted_H	0.660	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.268	-
predicted_R	0.357	-
predicted_RBI	0.300	-
predicted_SLG	0.295	-
predicted_SO	0.821	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.154	0.047
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.680	0.252
predicted_AVG	0.223	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.278	-0.079
predicted_H	0.783	0.123
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.028	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.268	-0.000
predicted_R	0.412	0.055
predicted_RBI	0.355	0.055
predicted_SLG	0.295	0.000
predicted_SO	0.993	0.172

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.68), rates preserved: AVG=0.213 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	0.2500	0.2857	0.3000	0.2500	0.0000	0.1000	0.0500	0.3000
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	7.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	3.000	2.000	11.000	0.1842	0.2195	0.2368	0.1842	0.0000	0.1053	0.0526	0.2895
season	0.20	28	-	96.000	22.000	3.000	4.000	9.000	10.000	10.000	23.000	0.2292	0.3119	0.3854	0.2292	0.0417	0.0938	0.1042	0.2396

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1800
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.8160
predicted_AVG	0.2228
predicted_BB	0.2360
predicted_H	0.8500
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.0320
predicted_OBP	0.2678
predicted_R	0.4420
predicted_RBI	0.3840
predicted_SLG	0.2950
predicted_SO	1.0850

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1070	0.1800	0.1544	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4290	3.8160	3.6805	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2230	0.2228	0.2229	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3570	0.2360	0.2783	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6600	0.8500	0.7835	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0320	0.0278	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2680	0.2678	0.2679	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3570	0.4420	0.4123	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3000	0.3840	0.3546	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2950	0.2950	0.2950	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8210	1.0850	0.9926	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.229

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260506_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	682626
playerID	682626
playerName	Francisco Alvarez
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	NYM
teamID	18

Austin Slater (596103) · BATTER · RF · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 1

All-history rows before 20260507: 1

System season_avg: 0.2730

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.6667

Diff (system - data): -0.3937

System opponent_avg: -

System season_avg diverges from 2026 season-to-date by -0.3937. This usually means mixed-season window logic.

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.750	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	3.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.330	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.667	0.667	-0.667	-0.667
predicted_BB	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.830	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	2.000	2.000	-2.000	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.373	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.667	0.667	-0.667	-0.667
predicted_R	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.385	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.875	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.750	-
predicted_AVG	0.330	-
predicted_BB	0.250	-
predicted_H	0.830	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.373	-
predicted_R	0.250	-
predicted_RBI	0.060	-
predicted_SLG	0.385	-
predicted_SO	0.875	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.146	0.021
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.823	0.073
predicted_AVG	0.330	0.000
predicted_BB	0.236	-0.014
predicted_H	0.905	0.075
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.373	-0.000
predicted_R	0.292	0.042
predicted_RBI	0.068	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.385	0.000
predicted_SO	0.855	-0.020

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.82), rates preserved: AVG=0.320 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, BvP AVG=0.300)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.4000	0.4375	0.4667	0.4000	0.0000	0.0667	0.2667
last_10	0.35	8	-	22.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	0.2727	0.3200	0.3182	0.2727	0.0454	0.0909	0.3182
season	0.20	8	-	22.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	0.2727	0.3200	0.3182	0.2727	0.0454	0.0909	0.3182

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1570
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.8620
predicted_AVG	0.3300
predicted_BB	0.2290
predicted_H	0.9450
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.3729
predicted_R	0.3150
predicted_RBI	0.0720
predicted_SLG	0.3850
predicted_SO	0.8440

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1250	0.1570	0.1458	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.7500	2.8620	2.8228	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3300	0.3300	0.3300	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2500	0.2290	0.2364	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8300	0.9450	0.9047	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3730	0.3729	0.3729	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2500	0.3150	0.2923	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0600	0.0720	0.0678	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3850	0.3850	0.3850	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8750	0.8440	0.8548	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.273

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	1
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260502_NYM@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	596103
playerID	596103
playerName	Austin Slater
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	NYM
teamID	18

Bo Bichette (666182) · BATTER · 3B · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 36

All-history rows before 20260507: 36

System season_avg: 0.2420

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2416

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.139	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.139	0.000	-0.139	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.139	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	4.139	5.000	-1.139	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.273	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.242	0.400	-0.242	-0.400
predicted_BB	0.222	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.222	0.000	0.778	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.000	2.000	-1.000	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.296	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.277	0.400	-0.027	-0.150
predicted_R	0.444	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.444	0.000	0.556	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.444	1.000	-0.444	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.314	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.315	0.400	-0.315	-0.400
predicted_SO	0.833	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.833	0.000	0.167	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.139	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.139	-
predicted_AVG	0.273	-
predicted_BB	0.222	-
predicted_H	1.030	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.296	-
predicted_R	0.444	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.314	-
predicted_SO	0.833	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.068	-0.072
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.242	0.103
predicted_AVG	0.273	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.181	-0.041
predicted_H	1.122	0.092
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.046	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.296	-0.000
predicted_R	0.368	-0.076
predicted_RBI	0.393	0.033
predicted_SLG	0.314	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.666	-0.167

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.24), rates preserved: AVG=0.265 HR/AB=0.011

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 4.139

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	23.000	7.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	0.3043	0.3043	0.3043	0.3044	0.0000	0.0870	0.0000	0.1304
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	10.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	3.000	4.000	0.2500	0.2955	0.3250	0.2500	0.0250	0.1000	0.0750	0.1000
season	0.20	36	-	149.000	36.000	5.000	2.000	16.000	16.000	8.000	30.000	0.2416	0.2767	0.3154	0.2416	0.0134	0.1074	0.0537	0.2013

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0290
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.2980
predicted_AVG	0.2728
predicted_BB	0.1590
predicted_H	1.1720
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0490
predicted_OBP	0.2957
predicted_R	0.3270
predicted_RBI	0.4110
predicted_SLG	0.3138
predicted_SO	0.5760

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1390	0.0290	0.0675	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1390	4.2980	4.2424	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2730	0.2728	0.2729	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2220	0.1590	0.1810	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0300	1.1720	1.1223	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0490	0.0459	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2960	0.2957	0.2958	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4440	0.3270	0.3679	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.4110	0.3931	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3140	0.3138	0.3139	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8330	0.5760	0.6660	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.242

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260506_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	666182
playerID	666182
playerName	Bo Bichette
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	NYM
teamID	18

Mark Vientos (668901) · BATTER · 1B · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 25

All-history rows before 20260507: 25

System season_avg: 0.2300

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2299

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.160	0.000	-0.160	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.480	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.480	4.000	-0.480	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.246	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.230	0.000	-0.230	0.000
predicted_BB	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.280	1.000	-0.280	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.780	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.800	0.000	-0.800	0.000
predicted_HR	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.160	0.000	-0.160	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.299	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.284	0.200	-0.034	0.050
predicted_R	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.850	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.560	0.000	-0.560	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.540	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.414	0.000	-0.414	0.000
predicted_SO	0.960	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.960	2.000	-0.960	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.160	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.480	-
predicted_AVG	0.246	-
predicted_BB	0.280	-
predicted_H	0.780	-
predicted_HR	0.230	-
predicted_OBP	0.299	-
predicted_R	0.400	-
predicted_RBI	0.850	-
predicted_SLG	0.540	-
predicted_SO	0.960	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.236	0.076
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.659	0.179
predicted_AVG	0.246	0.000
predicted_BB	0.287	0.007
predicted_H	0.874	0.094
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.261	0.031
predicted_OBP	0.299	0.000
predicted_R	0.456	0.056
predicted_RBI	0.951	0.101
predicted_SLG	0.540	0.000
predicted_SO	1.030	0.070

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.66), rates preserved: AVG=0.239 HR/AB=0.071

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 25

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	5.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	0.2500	0.2857	0.6500	0.2500	0.1000	0.3500	0.0500	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	9.000	2.000	2.000	8.000	4.000	4.000	12.000	0.2500	0.3250	0.4722	0.2500	0.0556	0.2222	0.1111	0.3333
season	0.20	25	-	87.000	20.000	4.000	4.000	14.000	10.000	7.000	24.000	0.2299	0.2842	0.4138	0.2299	0.0460	0.1609	0.0805	0.2759

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2770
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7560
predicted_AVG	0.2460
predicted_BB	0.2910
predicted_H	0.9240
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.2770
predicted_OBP	0.2992
predicted_R	0.4860
predicted_RBI	1.0050
predicted_SLG	0.5405
predicted_SO	1.0680

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1600	0.2770	0.2361	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4800	3.7560	3.6594	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2460	0.2460	0.2460	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2800	0.2910	0.2872	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7800	0.9240	0.8736	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2300	0.2770	0.2606	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2990	0.2992	0.2991	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4000	0.4860	0.4559	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.8500	1.0050	0.9507	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5400	0.5405	0.5403	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9600	1.0680	1.0302	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	25
Season rows before report date	25
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	25
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260506_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	668901
playerID	668901
playerName	Mark Vientos
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	NYM
teamID	18

Tyrone Taylor (621438) · BATTER · CF · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 15

All-history rows before 20260507: 15

System season_avg: 0.2270

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2273

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.067	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.933	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	2.933	4.000	1.067	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.205	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.227	0.000	0.023	0.250
predicted_BB	0.133	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.490	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.667	0.000	0.333	1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.067	0.000	0.933	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.239	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.261	0.000	-0.011	0.250
predicted_R	0.067	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.067	0.000	0.933	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.210	3.000	3.000	Hitting_RBI	0.267	0.000	2.733	3.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.255	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SLG	0.318	0.000	0.682	1.000
predicted_SO	0.400	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.400	0.000	0.600	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.067	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.933	-
predicted_AVG	0.205	-
predicted_BB	0.133	-
predicted_H	0.490	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.239	-
predicted_R	0.067	-
predicted_RBI	0.210	-
predicted_SLG	0.255	-
predicted_SO	0.400	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.033	-0.034
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.212	0.279
predicted_AVG	0.205	0.000
predicted_BB	0.144	0.011
predicted_H	0.620	0.130
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.047	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.239	0.000
predicted_R	0.057	-0.010
predicted_RBI	0.261	0.051
predicted_SLG	0.255	0.000
predicted_SO	0.425	0.025

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.21), rates preserved: AVG=0.193 HR/AB=0.015

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, BvP AVG=0.375)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	3.000	3.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	0.1667	0.2105	0.1667	0.1667	0.0000	0.0556	0.0556	0.1111
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	8.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.2424	0.2647	0.3333	0.2424	0.0303	0.1212	0.0303	0.1515
season	0.20	15	-	44.000	10.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	0.2273	0.2609	0.3182	0.2273	0.0227	0.0909	0.0454	0.1364

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0150
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.3620
predicted_AVG	0.2053
predicted_BB	0.1500
predicted_H	0.6900
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0510
predicted_OBP	0.2395
predicted_R	0.0510
predicted_RBI	0.2880
predicted_SLG	0.2553
predicted_SO	0.4380

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0670	0.0150	0.0332	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.9330	3.3620	3.2119	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2050	0.2053	0.2052	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1330	0.1500	0.1441	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4900	0.6900	0.6200	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0510	0.0471	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2390	0.2395	0.2393	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0670	0.0510	0.0566	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2100	0.2880	0.2607	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2550	0.2553	0.2552	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4000	0.4380	0.4247	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	3
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.227

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260503_NYM@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	621438
playerID	621438
playerName	Tyrone Taylor
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	NYM
teamID	18

Christian Scott (681035) · PITCHER · Starter · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 2

All-history rows before 20260507: 2

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.500	2.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_IP	5.100	5.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	3.050	5.000	2.050	0.100
predicted_SO	7.000	7.000	-	Pitching_SO	4.500	8.000	2.500	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 5.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	2	6.100	3.000	3.000	5.000	9.000	1.000	4.2632	1.2632	0.4737	0.4737	0.7895	1.4210	0.1579
last_10	0.35	2	6.100	3.000	3.000	5.000	9.000	1.000	4.2632	1.2632	0.4737	0.4737	0.7895	1.4210	0.1579
season	0.20	2	6.100	3.000	3.000	5.000	9.000	1.000	4.2632	1.2632	0.4737	0.4737	0.7895	1.4210	0.1579

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.6320
predicted_ER	1.5790
predicted_ERA	4.2632
predicted_H	1.5790
predicted_HR	0.5260
predicted_IP	3.1000
predicted_SO	4.7370
predicted_WHIP	1.2632

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	2.6320	2.0608	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	1.5790	1.3763	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.2632	4.2632	form_only
predicted_H	6.0000	1.5790	3.1263	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.5260	0.3419	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.1000	3.1000	4.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	7.0000	4.7370	5.5290	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2632	1.2632	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.1
H	6
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	7
HR	0
BF	25
Pitches	103

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	19
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	4.26
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	4
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.0
Pitching_Pitches	74
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	8
Pitching_Strikes	54
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260501_NYM@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	681035
playerID	681035
playerName	Christian Scott
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	NYM
teamID	18

Brooks Raley (548384) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 15

All-history rows before 20260507: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.793	1.100	0.407	0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.200	2.000	-1.200	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	0.000	1.000	1.000	8.000	0.000	0.0000	0.3750	0.0000	0.1875	0.1875	1.5000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	2.000	5.000	5.000	11.000	1.000	1.9286	1.0714	0.2143	0.5357	0.5357	1.1786	0.1071
season	0.20	15	14.000	2.000	7.000	5.000	18.000	1.000	1.2857	0.8571	0.1429	0.5000	0.3571	1.2857	0.0714

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3430
predicted_ER	0.1040
predicted_ERA	0.9322
predicted_H	0.3720
predicted_HR	0.0520
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.3450
predicted_WHIP	0.7152

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3430	0.2230	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1040	0.0676	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.9322	0.9322	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.3720	0.5918	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0520	0.0338	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.0000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.3450	0.8742	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.7152	0.7152	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.29
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	548384
playerID	548384
playerName	Brooks Raley
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYM
teamID	18

Devin Williams (642207) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 14

All-history rows before 20260507: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.571	0.000	-0.571	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.750	0.200	0.350	0.900
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.429	2.000	-0.429	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	0.000	1.000	0.000	7.000	0.000	0.0000	0.2143	0.0000	0.2143	0.0000	1.5000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.200	6.000	13.000	1.000	16.000	1.000	6.2308	1.6154	0.6923	1.5000	0.1154	1.8461	0.1154
season	0.20	13	11.200	6.000	14.000	3.000	20.000	1.000	4.6286	1.4571	0.5143	1.2000	0.2571	1.7143	0.0857

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.0920
predicted_ER	0.3450
predicted_ERA	3.1065
predicted_H	0.8610
predicted_HR	0.0580
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.6640
predicted_WHIP	0.9532

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0920	0.0598	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3450	0.2242	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.1065	3.1065	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8610	0.5596	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0580	0.0377	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.0000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.6640	1.4316	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9532	0.9532	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	12

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	2
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	6.17
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	3
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	9
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	6
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	642207
playerID	642207
playerName	Devin Williams
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYM
teamID	18

Luke Weaver (596133) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 15

All-history rows before 20260507: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.533	0.000	1.467	2.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.913	1.000	-0.713	-0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	2.000	0.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	2.000	5.000	0.000	8.000	1.000	3.3750	0.9375	0.3750	0.9375	0.0000	1.5000	0.1875
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	8.000	11.000	2.000	12.000	2.000	6.9677	1.2581	0.7742	1.0645	0.1935	1.1613	0.1935
season	0.20	15	15.100	8.000	12.000	4.000	15.000	2.000	4.6957	1.0435	0.5217	0.7826	0.2609	0.9783	0.1304

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1200
predicted_ER	0.5440
predicted_ERA	4.8966
predicted_H	0.9510
predicted_HR	0.1780
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.2770
predicted_WHIP	1.0709

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.1200	0.4280	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.5440	1.0536	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.8966	4.8966	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.9510	1.3181	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1780	0.1157	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.2770	1.1801	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0709	1.0709	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	2
R	2
ER	2
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	28

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.70
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	20
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	16
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	596133
playerID	596133
playerName	Luke Weaver
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYM
teamID	18

Home Team: COL

Troy Johnston (687859) · BATTER · RF · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 30

All-history rows before 20260507: 30

System season_avg: 0.3240

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3241

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.310	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.300	1.000	0.700	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.724	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.600	4.000	-0.600	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.372	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.324	0.500	0.009	-0.167
predicted_BB	0.310	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.033	0.000	-0.033	0.000
predicted_H	1.220	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.167	2.000	-0.167	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.436	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.387	0.500	0.113	0.000
predicted_R	0.379	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.367	1.000	0.633	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.533	1.000	0.467	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.033	0.000	-0.033	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.478	0.667	0.667	Hitting_SLG	0.463	0.750	0.204	-0.083
predicted_SO	0.828	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.800	1.000	0.200	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.310	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.724	-
predicted_AVG	0.372	-
predicted_BB	0.310	-
predicted_H	1.220	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.436	-
predicted_R	0.379	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.478	-
predicted_SO	0.828	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.335	0.025
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.682	-0.042
predicted_AVG	0.372	0.000
predicted_BB	0.380	0.070
predicted_H	1.312	0.092
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.013	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.436	0.000
predicted_R	0.427	0.048
predicted_RBI	0.424	0.034
predicted_SLG	0.478	0.000
predicted_SO	0.814	-0.014

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.72), rates preserved: AVG=0.352 HR/AB=0.003

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	7.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	4.000	0.3889	0.4500	0.5000	0.3889	0.0000	0.0556	0.1111	0.2222
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	14.000	3.000	0.000	7.000	3.000	5.000	8.000	0.3784	0.4524	0.4595	0.3784	0.0000	0.1892	0.1351	0.2162
season	0.20	29	-	108.000	35.000	9.000	2.000	16.000	11.000	9.000	24.000	0.3241	0.3761	0.4630	0.3241	0.0185	0.1482	0.0833	0.2222

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3480
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.6600
predicted_AVG	0.3723
predicted_BB	0.4170
predicted_H	1.3620
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0140
predicted_OBP	0.4361
predicted_R	0.4530
predicted_RBI	0.4420
predicted_SLG	0.4784
predicted_SO	0.8060

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3100	0.3480	0.3347	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7240	3.6600	3.6824	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3720	0.3723	0.3722	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3100	0.4170	0.3795	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2200	1.3620	1.3123	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0140	0.0126	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4360	0.4361	0.4361	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3790	0.4530	0.4271	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.4420	0.4238	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4780	0.4784	0.4783	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8280	0.8060	0.8137	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.324

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260506_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	687859
playerID	687859
playerName	Troy Johnston
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	COL
teamID	9

Edouard Julien (666397) · BATTER · 2B · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 25

All-history rows before 20260507: 25

System season_avg: 0.2920

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2921

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_2B	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.120	0.000	-0.120
predicted_3B	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.040	0.000	-0.040
predicted_AB	3.560	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.560	5.000	1.440
predicted_AVG	0.312	0.400	0.400	Hitting_AVG	0.292	0.400	0.108
predicted_BB	0.480	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.480	0.000	-0.480
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.080	0.000	-0.080
predicted_H	1.040	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	1.040	2.000	0.960
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.080	0.000	-0.080
predicted_OBP	0.404	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.376	0.400	0.024
predicted_R	0.600	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.600	0.000	-0.600
predicted_RBI	0.430	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.480	0.000	-0.480
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.120	0.000	-0.120
predicted_SLG	0.459	0.400	0.400	Hitting_SLG	0.416	0.400	-0.016
predicted_SO	1.160	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.160	1.000	-0.160

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.120	-
predicted_3B	0.040	-
predicted_AB	3.560	-
predicted_AVG	0.312	-
predicted_BB	0.480	-
predicted_H	1.040	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.404	-
predicted_R	0.600	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.459	-
predicted_SO	1.160	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.104	-0.016
predicted_3B	0.042	0.002
predicted_AB	3.893	0.333
predicted_AVG	0.312	0.000
predicted_BB	0.577	0.097
predicted_H	1.190	0.149
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.129	0.019
predicted_OBP	0.404	0.000
predicted_R	0.747	0.147
predicted_RBI	0.490	0.060
predicted_SLG	0.459	0.000
predicted_SO	1.420	0.260

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.89), rates preserved: AVG=0.306 HR/AB=0.033

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 25

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	9.000	0.2857	0.4000	0.4286	0.2857	0.0476	0.0952	0.1905	0.4286
last_10	0.35	10	-	42.000	15.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	10.000	5.000	15.000	0.3571	0.4255	0.5238	0.3571	0.0238	0.1667	0.1191	0.3571
season	0.20	25	-	89.000	26.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	12.000	15.000	12.000	29.000	0.2921	0.3762	0.4157	0.2921	0.0225	0.1348	0.1348	0.3258

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0950
predicted_3B	0.0430
predicted_AB	4.0720
predicted_AVG	0.3120
predicted_BB	0.6290
predicted_H	1.2700
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1390
predicted_OBP	0.4042
predicted_R	0.8260
predicted_RBI	0.5220
predicted_SLG	0.4593
predicted_SO	1.5600

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1200	0.0950	0.1038	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0400	0.0430	0.0420	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5600	4.0720	3.8928	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3120	0.3120	0.3120	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4800	0.6290	0.5768	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0400	1.2700	1.1895	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1390	0.1289	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4040	0.4042	0.4041	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6000	0.8260	0.7469	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.5220	0.4898	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4590	0.4593	0.4592	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1600	1.5600	1.4200	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	25
Season rows before report date	25
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	25
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.292

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260506_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	666397
playerID	666397
playerName	Edouard Julien
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	COL
teamID	9

Brett Sullivan (664954) · BATTER · C · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 14

All-history rows before 20260507: 14

System season_avg: 0.2650

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2653

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.357	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.357	0.000	-0.357	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.500	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	3.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.259	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.265	0.000	-0.015	0.250
predicted_BB	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.143	1.000	-0.143	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.740	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.929	0.000	0.071	1.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.310	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.294	0.250	-0.044	0.000
predicted_R	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.429	0.000	-0.429	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.399	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.367	0.000	-0.117	0.250
predicted_SO	0.643	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.643	1.000	-0.643	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.357	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.259	-
predicted_BB	0.143	-
predicted_H	0.740	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.310	-
predicted_R	0.143	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.399	-
predicted_SO	0.643	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.459	0.102
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.611	0.111
predicted_AVG	0.259	0.000
predicted_BB	0.229	0.086
predicted_H	0.876	0.136
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.310	0.000
predicted_R	0.229	0.086
predicted_RBI	0.487	0.077
predicted_SLG	0.399	0.000
predicted_SO	0.565	-0.078

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.61), rates preserved: AVG=0.243 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	5.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	0.2632	0.3333	0.4211	0.2632	0.1579	0.1053	0.1053
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	9.000	5.000	5.000	2.000	2.000	6.000	0.2500	0.2895	0.3889	0.2500	0.1389	0.0556	0.1667
season	0.20	14	-	49.000	13.000	5.000	6.000	2.000	2.000	9.000	0.2653	0.2941	0.3673	0.2653	0.1225	0.0408	0.1837

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.5140
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.6700
predicted_AVG	0.2590
predicted_BB	0.2750
predicted_H	0.9500
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.3101
predicted_R	0.2750
predicted_RBI	0.5290
predicted_SLG	0.3991
predicted_SO	0.5230

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3570	0.5140	0.4591	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5000	3.6700	3.6105	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2590	0.2590	0.2590	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1430	0.2750	0.2288	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7400	0.9500	0.8765	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3100	0.3101	0.3101	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1430	0.2750	0.2288	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.5290	0.4874	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3990	0.3991	0.3991	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6430	0.5230	0.5650	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.265

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	1
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260503_ATL@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	664954
playerID	664954
playerName	Brett Sullivan
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	COL
teamID	9

Tyler Freeman (671289) · BATTER · DH · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 15

All-history rows before 20260507: 15

System season_avg: 0.2680

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2679

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.067	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.067	1.000	-0.067	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.733	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.733	4.000	0.267	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.323	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.268	0.500	-0.018	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_H	1.110	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	2.000	0.000	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.431	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.369	0.600	-0.119	-0.350
predicted_R	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.680	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.533	1.000	-0.533	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.480	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.339	0.750	-0.089	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.533	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.533	0.000	0.467	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.067	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.733	-
predicted_AVG	0.323	-
predicted_BB	0.200	-
predicted_H	1.110	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.431	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.680	-
predicted_SLG	0.480	-
predicted_SO	0.533	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.116	0.049
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.651	-0.082
predicted_AVG	0.323	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.201	0.001
predicted_H	1.146	0.036
predicted_HBP	0.497	-
predicted_HR	0.141	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.431	0.000
predicted_R	0.431	0.098
predicted_RBI	0.704	0.024
predicted_SLG	0.480	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.464	-0.069

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.73), rates preserved: AVG=0.307 HR/AB=0.038

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	0.3529	0.4762	0.5882	0.3529	0.0588	0.2353	0.0588	0.1177
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	12.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	4.000	2.000	4.000	0.3158	0.4091	0.4211	0.3158	0.0263	0.1842	0.0526	0.1053
season	0.20	15	-	56.000	15.000	1.000	1.000	8.000	5.000	3.000	8.000	0.2679	0.3692	0.3393	0.2679	0.0179	0.1429	0.0536	0.1429

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1420
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.6070
predicted_AVG	0.3229
predicted_BB	0.2010
predicted_H	1.1650
predicted_HBP	0.4970
predicted_HR	0.1420
predicted_OBP	0.4313
predicted_R	0.4840
predicted_RBI	0.7170
predicted_SLG	0.4799
predicted_SO	0.4270

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0670	0.1420	0.1157	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7330	3.6070	3.6511	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3230	0.3229	0.3229	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2000	0.2010	0.2006	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1100	1.1650	1.1458	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.4970	0.4970	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1420	0.1413	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4310	0.4313	0.4312	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.4840	0.4311	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6800	0.7170	0.7041	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4800	0.4799	0.4799	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5330	0.4270	0.4641	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.268

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260506_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	671289
playerID	671289
playerName	Tyler Freeman
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	COL
teamID	9

Willi Castro (650489) · BATTER · SS · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 25

All-history rows before 20260507: 25

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.680	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.680	4.000	0.320	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.240	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.250	0.000	0.000
predicted_BB	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.280	0.000	-0.280	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.080	0.000	-0.080	0.000
predicted_H	0.780	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.920	1.000	0.080	0.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.040	0.000	-0.040	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.270	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.310	0.250	-0.060	0.000
predicted_R	0.520	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.520	1.000	0.480	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.240	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.440	0.000	0.560	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.080	0.000	-0.080	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.267	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.337	0.250	-0.087	0.000
predicted_SO	1.320	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.320	1.000	0.680	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.680	-
predicted_AVG	0.240	-
predicted_BB	0.280	-
predicted_H	0.780	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.270	-
predicted_R	0.520	-
predicted_RBI	0.240	-
predicted_SLG	0.267	-
predicted_SO	1.320	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.122	-0.078
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.837	0.157
predicted_AVG	0.240	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.209	-0.071
predicted_H	0.884	0.104
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.009	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.270	0.000
predicted_R	0.429	-0.091
predicted_RBI	0.272	0.032
predicted_SLG	0.267	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.213	-0.107

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.84), rates preserved: AVG=0.230 HR/AB=0.002

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 25

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	6.000	0.1905	0.1905	0.1905	0.1905	0.0000	0.0476	0.0000	0.2857
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	11.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	5.000	3.000	10.000	0.2973	0.3500	0.3243	0.2973	0.0000	0.0811	0.0811	0.2703
season	0.20	25	-	92.000	23.000	5.000	1.000	11.000	13.000	7.000	33.000	0.2500	0.3100	0.3370	0.2500	0.0109	0.1196	0.0761	0.3587

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0800
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.9210
predicted_AVG	0.2398
predicted_BB	0.1710
predicted_H	0.9400
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.0090
predicted_OBP	0.2702
predicted_R	0.3800
predicted_RBI	0.2890
predicted_SLG	0.2666
predicted_SO	1.1560

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.0800	0.1220	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6800	3.9210	3.8366	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2400	0.2398	0.2399	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2800	0.1710	0.2092	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7800	0.9400	0.8840	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0090	0.0094	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2700	0.2702	0.2701	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5200	0.3800	0.4290	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2400	0.2890	0.2718	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2670	0.2666	0.2667	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3200	1.1560	1.2134	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	25
Season rows before report date	25
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	25
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B-LF
gameID	20260504_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	650489
playerID	650489
playerName	Willi Castro
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	COL
teamID	9

Jake McCarthy (664983) · BATTER · CF · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 22

All-history rows before 20260507: 22

System season_avg: 0.2620

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2615

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.227	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.227	0.000	-0.227	0.000
predicted_3B	0.091	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_AB	2.955	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	2.955	4.000	1.045	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.319	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.262	0.250	-0.262	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.227	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.227	0.000	-0.227	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_H	0.820	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.773	1.000	-0.773	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.045	1.000	-0.045	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.381	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.324	0.250	-0.324	-0.250
predicted_R	0.273	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.273	1.000	-0.273	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.364	2.000	-0.364	-2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.227	0.000	-0.227	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.599	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.446	1.000	-0.446	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.545	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.545	0.000	1.455	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.227	-
predicted_3B	0.091	-
predicted_AB	2.955	-
predicted_AVG	0.319	-
predicted_BB	0.227	-
predicted_H	0.820	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.381	-
predicted_R	0.273	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.599	-
predicted_SO	0.545	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.178	-0.049
predicted_3B	0.125	0.034
predicted_AB	2.978	0.023
predicted_AVG	0.319	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.271	0.044
predicted_H	0.907	0.087
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.126	0.016
predicted_OBP	0.381	0.000
predicted_R	0.443	0.170
predicted_RBI	0.490	0.050
predicted_SLG	0.599	0.000
predicted_SO	0.389	-0.156

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.98), rates preserved: AVG=0.305 HR/AB=0.042

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	0.3333	0.4118	0.6667	0.3333	0.0667	0.2000	0.1333	0.0667
last_10	0.35	10	-	30.000	10.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	6.000	2.000	3.000	0.3333	0.3750	0.6000	0.3333	0.0333	0.1667	0.0667	0.1000
season	0.20	22	-	65.000	17.000	5.000	2.000	1.000	8.000	6.000	5.000	12.000	0.2615	0.3239	0.4462	0.2615	0.0154	0.1231	0.0769	0.1846

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1510
predicted_3B	0.1430
predicted_AB	2.9910
predicted_AVG	0.3189
predicted_BB	0.2950
predicted_H	0.9540
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.1340
predicted_OBP	0.3813
predicted_R	0.5340
predicted_RBI	0.5170
predicted_SLG	0.5993
predicted_SO	0.3050

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2270	0.1510	0.1776	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0910	0.1430	0.1248	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.9550	2.9910	2.9784	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3190	0.3189	0.3189	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2270	0.2950	0.2712	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8200	0.9540	0.9071	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1340	0.1256	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3810	0.3813	0.3812	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2730	0.5340	0.4426	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.5170	0.4900	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5990	0.5993	0.5992	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5450	0.3050	0.3890	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.262

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260506_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	664983
playerID	664983
playerName	Jake McCarthy
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	COL
teamID	9

Mickey Moniak (666160) · BATTER · LF · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 26

All-history rows before 20260507: 26

System season_avg: 0.3370

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3366

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.269	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.269	0.000	-0.269	0.000
predicted_3B	0.038	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.038	0.000	-0.038	0.000
predicted_AB	3.885	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.885	5.000	0.115	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.372	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.337	0.200	-0.087	0.050
predicted_BB	0.269	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.269	0.000	0.731	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.320	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.308	1.000	-0.308	0.000
predicted_HR	0.450	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.423	0.000	-0.423	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.439	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.382	0.200	0.018	0.200
predicted_R	0.769	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.769	1.000	-0.769	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.730	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.769	0.000	-0.769	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.038	0.000	-0.038	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.892	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.752	0.200	-0.502	0.050
predicted_SO	1.077	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.077	2.000	-1.077	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.269	-
predicted_3B	0.038	-
predicted_AB	3.885	-
predicted_AVG	0.372	-
predicted_BB	0.269	-
predicted_H	1.320	-
predicted_HR	0.450	-
predicted_OBP	0.439	-
predicted_R	0.769	-
predicted_RBI	0.730	-
predicted_SLG	0.892	-
predicted_SO	1.077	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.292	0.023
predicted_3B	0.099	0.061
predicted_AB	4.049	0.164
predicted_AVG	0.372	0.000
predicted_BB	0.337	0.068
predicted_H	1.462	0.142
predicted_HBP	0.131	-
predicted_HR	0.501	0.051
predicted_OBP	0.439	0.000
predicted_R	0.923	0.154
predicted_RBI	0.807	0.077
predicted_SLG	0.892	0.000
predicted_SO	1.163	0.086

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.05), rates preserved: AVG=0.361 HR/AB=0.124

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 26

Reference playing time: 3.885

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	8.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	6.000	2.000	6.000	0.3810	0.4583	1.0000	0.3810	0.1429	0.2381	0.0952	0.2857
last_10	0.35	10	-	42.000	16.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	7.000	9.000	4.000	13.000	0.3810	0.4468	0.8333	0.3810	0.1191	0.1667	0.0952	0.3095
season	0.20	26	-	101.000	34.000	7.000	1.000	11.000	20.000	20.000	7.000	28.000	0.3366	0.3818	0.7525	0.3366	0.1089	0.1980	0.0693	0.2772

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3040
predicted_3B	0.1310
predicted_AB	4.1370
predicted_AVG	0.3721
predicted_BB	0.3730
predicted_H	1.5390
predicted_HBP	0.1310
predicted_HR	0.5280
predicted_OBP	0.4390
predicted_R	1.0060
predicted_RBI	0.8480
predicted_SLG	0.8922
predicted_SO	1.2090

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2690	0.3040	0.2918	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0380	0.1310	0.0985	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8850	4.1370	4.0488	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3720	0.3721	0.3721	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2690	0.3730	0.3366	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.3200	1.5390	1.4624	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1310	0.1310	form_only
predicted_HR	0.4500	0.5280	0.5007	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4390	0.4390	0.4390	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7690	1.0060	0.9231	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7300	0.8480	0.8067	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.8920	0.8922	0.8921	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0770	1.2090	1.1628	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	26
Season rows before report date	26
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	26
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.337

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260506_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	666160
playerID	666160
playerName	Mickey Moniak
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	COL
teamID	9

Kyle Karros (691720) · BATTER · 3B · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 32

All-history rows before 20260507: 32

System season_avg: 0.2190

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2188

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.094	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.094	0.000	-0.094	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	4.000	1.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.283	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.219	0.250	0.031	0.000
predicted_BB	0.594	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.594	1.000	-0.594	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.690	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.656	1.000	0.344	0.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.031	0.000	-0.031	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.359	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.342	0.400	-0.092	-0.150
predicted_R	0.438	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.438	0.000	-0.438	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.156	0.000	-0.156	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.295	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.281	0.250	-0.031	0.000
predicted_SO	0.875	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.875	1.000	0.125	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.094	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.283	-
predicted_BB	0.594	-
predicted_H	0.690	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.359	-
predicted_R	0.438	-
predicted_RBI	0.200	-
predicted_SLG	0.295	-
predicted_SO	0.875	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.047	-0.047
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.231	0.231
predicted_AVG	0.283	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.519	-0.075
predicted_H	0.858	0.168
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.008	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.359	0.000
predicted_R	0.477	0.039
predicted_RBI	0.252	0.052
predicted_SLG	0.295	0.000
predicted_SO	1.201	0.326

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.23), rates preserved: AVG=0.265 HR/AB=0.002

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	8.000	0.3529	0.4000	0.3529	0.3529	0.0000	0.1177	0.1177	0.4706
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	8.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	5.000	14.000	0.2286	0.3171	0.2286	0.2286	0.0000	0.0571	0.1429	0.4000
season	0.20	32	-	96.000	21.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	14.000	19.000	28.000	0.2188	0.3419	0.2812	0.2188	0.0104	0.0521	0.1979	0.2917

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0210
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.3550
predicted_AVG	0.2826
predicted_BB	0.4780
predicted_H	0.9480
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0070
predicted_OBP	0.3594
predicted_R	0.4980
predicted_RBI	0.2800
predicted_SLG	0.2951
predicted_SO	1.3760

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0940	0.0210	0.0466	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.3550	3.2308	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2830	0.2826	0.2827	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5940	0.4780	0.5186	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6900	0.9480	0.8577	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0070	0.0080	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3590	0.3594	0.3593	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4380	0.4980	0.4770	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2000	0.2800	0.2520	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2950	0.2951	0.2951	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8750	1.3760	1.2006	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.219

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260506_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	691720
playerID	691720
playerName	Kyle Karros
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	COL
teamID	9

TJ Rumfield (681198) · BATTER · 1B · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 34

All-history rows before 20260507: 34

System season_avg: 0.2710

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2713

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.176	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.176	0.000	-0.176	0.000
predicted_3B	0.029	1.000	1.000	Hitting_3B	0.029	0.000	0.971	1.000
predicted_AB	3.794	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.794	4.000	0.206	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.307	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.271	0.750	-0.021	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.353	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.353	1.000	-0.353	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.060	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.029	3.000	-0.029	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.118	1.000	-0.118	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.350	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.336	0.800	-0.086	-0.550
predicted_R	0.353	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.353	1.000	0.647	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.520	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.559	1.000	0.441	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.535	0.750	0.750	Hitting_SLG	0.426	1.500	0.324	-0.750
predicted_SO	0.676	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.676	0.000	0.324	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.176	-
predicted_3B	0.029	-
predicted_AB	3.794	-
predicted_AVG	0.307	-
predicted_BB	0.353	-
predicted_H	1.060	-
predicted_HR	0.230	-
predicted_OBP	0.350	-
predicted_R	0.353	-
predicted_RBI	0.520	-
predicted_SLG	0.535	-
predicted_SO	0.676	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.132	-0.044
predicted_3B	0.014	-0.015
predicted_AB	3.982	0.188
predicted_AVG	0.307	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.298	-0.055
predicted_H	1.185	0.125
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.256	0.026
predicted_OBP	0.350	0.000
predicted_R	0.434	0.081
predicted_RBI	0.579	0.058
predicted_SLG	0.535	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.638	-0.038

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.98), rates preserved: AVG=0.298 HR/AB=0.064

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	1.000	1.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	7.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	0.3333	0.3636	0.6190	0.3333	0.0952	0.1905	0.0476	0.1429
last_10	0.35	10	-	41.000	12.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	3.000	6.000	0.2927	0.3409	0.4878	0.2927	0.0488	0.0976	0.0732	0.1463
season	0.20	34	-	129.000	35.000	6.000	1.000	4.000	19.000	12.000	12.000	23.000	0.2713	0.3357	0.4264	0.2713	0.0310	0.1473	0.0930	0.1783

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1080
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	4.0840
predicted_AVG	0.3067
predicted_BB	0.2680
predicted_H	1.2530
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.2700
predicted_OBP	0.3501
predicted_R	0.4780
predicted_RBI	0.6100
predicted_SLG	0.5346
predicted_SO	0.6170

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1760	0.1080	0.1318	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0290	0.0060	0.0140	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7940	4.0840	3.9825	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3070	0.3067	0.3068	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3530	0.2680	0.2978	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0600	1.2530	1.1854	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2300	0.2700	0.2560	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3500	0.3501	0.3501	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3530	0.4780	0.4342	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5200	0.6100	0.5785	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5350	0.5346	0.5347	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6760	0.6170	0.6377	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	1
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.271

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.75
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	6
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260506_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	681198
playerID	681198
playerName	TJ Rumfield
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	COL
teamID	9

Jose Quintana (500779) · PITCHER · Starter · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 5

All-history rows before 20260507: 5

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	5.000	5.000	-	Pitching_ER	2.200	1.000	2.800	4.000
predicted_IP	4.200	4.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.680	6.000	-0.480	-1.800
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	-	Pitching_SO	2.400	3.000	2.600	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 5

Reference playing time: 4.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	24.100	11.000	22.000	11.000	12.000	5.000	4.0685	1.3562	0.4521	0.9041	0.4521	0.4931	0.2055
last_10	0.35	5	24.100	11.000	22.000	11.000	12.000	5.000	4.0685	1.3562	0.4521	0.9041	0.4521	0.4931	0.2055
season	0.20	5	24.100	11.000	22.000	11.000	12.000	5.000	4.0685	1.3562	0.4521	0.9041	0.4521	0.4931	0.2055

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.2600
predicted_ER	2.2600
predicted_ERA	4.0685
predicted_H	4.5210
predicted_HR	1.0270
predicted_IP	5.0000
predicted_SO	2.4660
predicted_WHIP	1.3562

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	4.0000	2.2600	2.8690	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	5.0000	2.2600	3.2190	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.0685	4.0685	form_only
predicted_H	5.0000	4.5210	4.6886	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	1.0270	1.0175	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.2000	5.0000	5.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	2.4660	3.3529	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3562	1.3562	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	5
Season rows before report date	5
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	5
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.2
H	5
R	5
ER	5
BB	4
SO	5
HR	1
BF	28
Pitches	112

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	23
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	4.07
Pitching_Flyouts	5
Pitching_Groundouts	5
Pitching_H	5
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	85
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	55
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260501_ATL@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	500779
playerID	500779
playerName	Jose Quintana
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	COL
teamID	9

Antonio Senzatela (622608) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 10

All-history rows before 20260507: 10

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.300	2.000	-0.300	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.930	2.200	-0.730	-1.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	2.000	1.000	0.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 10

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	10.000	3.000	8.000	3.000	5.000	2.7000	1.1000	0.3000	0.8000	0.3000	0.5000
last_10	0.35	10	22.100	3.000	12.000	6.000	20.000	1.2090	0.8060	0.1343	0.5373	0.2687	0.8955
season	0.20	10	22.100	3.000	12.000	6.000	20.000	1.2090	0.8060	0.1343	0.5373	0.2687	0.8955

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6170
predicted_ER	0.4560
predicted_ERA	1.8800
predicted_H	1.4310
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	2.1000
predicted_SO	1.5670
predicted_WHIP	0.9383

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.6170	0.4011	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4560	0.2964	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.8800	1.8800	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.4310	0.9302	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	2.1000	2.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.5670	1.7186	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9383	0.9383	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	10
Season rows before report date	10
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	10
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	11
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	1.21
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	4
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	3
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.2
Pitching_Pitches	42
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	24
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_ATL@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	622608
playerID	622608
playerName	Antonio Senzatela
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	COL
teamID	9

Victor Vodnik (680767) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 13

All-history rows before 20260507: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.846	0.000	0.154	1.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.015	1.000	0.185	0.200
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.923	1.000	-0.923	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	9.000	9.000	4.000	7.000	1.000	17.3571	2.7857	1.9286	1.9286	0.8571	1.5000	0.2143
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	9.000	14.000	8.000	11.000	1.000	7.5938	2.0625	0.8438	1.3125	0.7500	1.0312	0.0938
season	0.20	13	13.200	11.000	19.000	8.000	12.000	2.000	7.2439	1.9756	0.8049	1.3902	0.5854	0.8780	0.1463

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.7650
predicted_ER	1.3240
predicted_ERA	11.9173
predicted_H	1.6050
predicted_HR	0.1590
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.2120
predicted_WHIP	2.3706

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.7650	0.4973	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	1.3240	1.2106	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	11.9173	11.9173	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.6050	1.0433	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1590	0.1034	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.0000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.2120	0.7878	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	2.3706	2.3706	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	7.24
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_ATL@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	680767
playerID	680767
playerName	Victor Vodnik
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	COL
teamID	9

Jimmy Herget (623474) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 13

All-history rows before 20260507: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.538	3.000	-0.538	-3.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.969	1.000	0.031	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.077	0.000	-1.077	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	5.000	9.000	2.000	8.000	1.000	9.0000	2.2000	1.0000	1.8000	0.4000	1.6000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	11.000	7.000	13.000	3.000	11.000	1.000	5.7273	1.4545	0.6364	1.1818	0.2727	1.0000	0.0909
season	0.20	13	14.000	7.000	15.000	3.000	14.000	1.000	4.5000	1.2857	0.5000	1.0714	0.2143	1.0000	0.0714

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3180
predicted_ER	0.7730
predicted_ERA	6.9546
predicted_H	1.4380
predicted_HR	0.1360
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.2700
predicted_WHIP	1.7562

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3180	0.2067	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.7730	0.5025	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	6.9546	6.9546	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.4380	0.9347	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1360	0.0884	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.2700	0.8255	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.7562	1.7562	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	9

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	4.50
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	28
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	19
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_ATL@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	623474
playerID	623474
playerName	Jimmy Herget
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	COL
teamID	9

20260507_OAK@PHI

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "confidence": 0.57325, "home_win_probability": 0.57325, "away_win_probability": 0.42674999999999996, "predicted_score_text": "OAK 5 - 6 PHI", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to final winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "predicted_score_text": "OAK 4 - 5 PHI", "confidence": 0.57325, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score", "final_prediction_synced": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "OAK 4 - 5 PHI", "winner": "PHI"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "OAK 5 - 6 PHI", "winner": "PHI"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 1, "home_run_delta": 1, "total_run_delta": 2, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"}}

Away Team: OAK

Tyler Soderstrom (691016) · BATTER · LF · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 34

All-history rows before 20260507: 34

System season_avg: 0.2170

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2171

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.324	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.324	0.000	-0.324	0.000
predicted_3B	0.029	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_AB	3.794	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.794	4.000	0.206	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.224	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.217	0.250	0.033	0.000
predicted_BB	0.471	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.471	0.000	0.529	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.780	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.824	1.000	0.176	0.000
predicted_HR	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.147	1.000	-0.147	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.297	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.301	0.250	0.099	0.150
predicted_R	0.529	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.529	1.000	0.471	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.588	1.000	-0.588	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.532	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.434	1.000	-0.184	-0.750
predicted_SO	0.912	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.912	1.000	-0.912	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.324	-
predicted_3B	0.029	-
predicted_AB	3.794	-
predicted_AVG	0.224	-
predicted_BB	0.471	-
predicted_H	0.780	-
predicted_HR	0.280	-
predicted_OBP	0.297	-
predicted_R	0.529	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.532	-
predicted_SO	0.912	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.260	-0.064
predicted_3B	0.014	-0.015
predicted_AB	3.810	0.016
predicted_AVG	0.224	0.000
predicted_BB	0.435	-0.036
predicted_H	0.829	0.049
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.301	0.021
predicted_OBP	0.297	0.000
predicted_R	0.623	0.094
predicted_RBI	0.425	0.025
predicted_SLG	0.532	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.991	0.079

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.81), rates preserved: AVG=0.217 HR/AB=0.079

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	6.000	0.2500	0.3182	0.6000	0.2500	0.1000	0.1000	0.1000	0.3000
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	7.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	6.000	4.000	9.000	0.1944	0.2683	0.5000	0.1944	0.0833	0.1111	0.1111	0.2500
season	0.20	34	-	129.000	28.000	11.000	1.000	5.000	20.000	18.000	16.000	31.000	0.2171	0.3014	0.4341	0.2170	0.0388	0.1550	0.1240	0.2403

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2250
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.8190
predicted_AVG	0.2240
predicted_BB	0.4150
predicted_H	0.8550
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.3130
predicted_OBP	0.2974
predicted_R	0.6730
predicted_RBI	0.4390
predicted_SLG	0.5318
predicted_SO	1.0330

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3240	0.2250	0.2597	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0290	0.0060	0.0140	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7940	3.8190	3.8102	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2240	0.2240	0.2240	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4710	0.4150	0.4346	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7800	0.8550	0.8287	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2800	0.3130	0.3014	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2970	0.2974	0.2973	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5290	0.6730	0.6226	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.4390	0.4254	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5320	0.5318	0.5319	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9120	1.0330	0.9907	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.217

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260506_OAK@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	691016
playerID	691016
playerName	Tyler Soderstrom
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	OAK
teamID	20

Nick Kurtz (701762) · BATTER · 1B · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 35

All-history rows before 20260507: 35

System season_avg: 0.2520

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2520

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.629	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.629	4.000	1.371	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.267	0.400	0.400	Hitting_AVG	0.252	0.500	0.148	-0.100
predicted_BB	1.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_H	0.910	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.914	2.000	1.086	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.143	0.000	0.857	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.366	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.414	0.600	-0.014	-0.200
predicted_R	0.543	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.543	0.000	0.457	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	3.000	3.000	Hitting_RBI	0.486	1.000	2.514	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.114	1.000	-0.114	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.315	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SLG	0.409	0.500	0.591	0.500
predicted_SO	1.457	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.457	0.000	-1.457	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.629	-
predicted_AVG	0.267	-
predicted_BB	1.000	-
predicted_H	0.910	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.366	-
predicted_R	0.543	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.315	-
predicted_SO	1.457	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.116	-0.027
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.881	0.252
predicted_AVG	0.267	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.765	-0.235
predicted_H	1.014	0.104
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.031	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.366	-0.000
predicted_R	0.393	-0.150
predicted_RBI	0.429	0.049
predicted_SLG	0.315	0.000
predicted_SO	1.398	-0.059

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.88), rates preserved: AVG=0.261 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	3.000	3.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	0.2857	0.3478	0.2857	0.2857	0.0000	0.0952	0.0952	0.2857
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	10.000	2.000	0.000	5.000	3.000	7.000	15.000	0.2500	0.3617	0.3000	0.2500	0.0000	0.1250	0.1750	0.3750
season	0.20	35	-	127.000	32.000	5.000	5.000	17.000	19.000	35.000	51.000	0.2520	0.4136	0.4094	0.2520	0.0394	0.1339	0.2756	0.4016

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1020
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.0160
predicted_AVG	0.2665
predicted_BB	0.6390
predicted_H	1.0700
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0320
predicted_OBP	0.3658
predicted_R	0.3120
predicted_RBI	0.4550
predicted_SLG	0.3154
predicted_SO	1.3660

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.1020	0.1163	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6290	4.0160	3.8806	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2670	0.2665	0.2667	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.6390	0.7653	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9100	1.0700	1.0140	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0320	0.0313	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3660	0.3658	0.3659	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5430	0.3120	0.3929	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.4550	0.4287	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3150	0.3154	0.3153	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4570	1.3660	1.3979	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	3
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.252

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260506_OAK@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	701762
playerID	701762
playerName	Nick Kurtz
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	OAK
teamID	20

Zack Gelof (680869) · BATTER · 3B · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 13

All-history rows before 20260507: 13

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.154	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.154	1.000	-0.154	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.385	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.385	4.000	0.615	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.291	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.250	0.000	0.000
predicted_BB	0.231	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.231	0.000	-0.231	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.800	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.846	1.000	0.154	0.000
predicted_HR	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.354	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.298	0.250	-0.048	0.000
predicted_R	0.538	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.538	1.000	-0.538	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.460	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.538	0.000	-0.538	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.509	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.432	0.500	-0.182	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.923	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.923	3.000	-0.923	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.154	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.385	-
predicted_AVG	0.291	-
predicted_BB	0.231	-
predicted_H	0.800	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.354	-
predicted_R	0.538	-
predicted_RBI	0.460	-
predicted_SLG	0.509	-
predicted_SO	0.923	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.157	0.003
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.357	-0.028
predicted_AVG	0.291	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.298	0.067
predicted_H	0.911	0.111
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.180	0.020
predicted_OBP	0.354	0.000
predicted_R	0.571	0.033
predicted_RBI	0.522	0.062
predicted_SLG	0.509	0.000
predicted_SO	0.860	-0.063

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.38), rates preserved: AVG=0.269 HR/AB=0.053

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	4.000	0.3125	0.3889	0.5625	0.3125	0.0625	0.1875	0.1250	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	10.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	6.000	3.000	8.000	0.2857	0.3421	0.4857	0.2857	0.0571	0.1429	0.0857	0.2286
season	0.20	13	-	44.000	11.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	7.000	3.000	12.000	0.2500	0.2979	0.4318	0.2500	0.0454	0.1591	0.0682	0.2727

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1580
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.3420
predicted_AVG	0.2906
predicted_BB	0.3340
predicted_H	0.9710
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1910
predicted_OBP	0.3543
predicted_R	0.5890
predicted_RBI	0.5550
predicted_SLG	0.5095
predicted_SO	0.8260

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1540	0.1580	0.1566	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3850	3.3420	3.3571	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2910	0.2906	0.2907	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2310	0.3340	0.2980	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8000	0.9710	0.9111	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.1910	0.1802	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3540	0.3543	0.3542	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5380	0.5890	0.5711	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4600	0.5550	0.5218	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5090	0.5095	0.5093	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9230	0.8260	0.8599	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B-CF
gameID	20260506_OAK@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	680869
playerID	680869
playerName	Zack Gelof
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	OAK
teamID	20

Jeff McNeil (643446) · BATTER · 2B · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 28

All-history rows before 20260507: 28

System season_avg: 0.3300

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3300

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.286	2.000	2.000	Hitting_2B	0.286	0.000	1.714	2.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.571	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.571	4.000	0.429	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.433	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.330	0.250	0.170	0.250
predicted_BB	0.357	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.357	0.000	-0.357	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_H	1.260	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	1.179	1.000	0.821	1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.036	0.000	-0.036	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.452	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.389	0.250	0.111	0.250
predicted_R	0.321	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.321	0.000	0.679	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.730	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	0.429	0.000	1.571	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.036	0.000	-0.036	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.587	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SLG	0.440	0.250	0.560	0.750
predicted_SO	0.321	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.321	0.000	-0.321	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.286	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.571	-
predicted_AVG	0.433	-
predicted_BB	0.357	-
predicted_H	1.260	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.452	-
predicted_R	0.321	-
predicted_RBI	0.730	-
predicted_SLG	0.587	-
predicted_SO	0.321	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.382	0.096
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.609	0.038
predicted_AVG	0.433	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.276	-0.081
predicted_H	1.462	0.202
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.038	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.452	-0.000
predicted_R	0.281	-0.040
predicted_RBI	0.844	0.114
predicted_SLG	0.587	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.177	-0.144

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.61), rates preserved: AVG=0.405 HR/AB=0.010

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	2.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	2.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	2.000	2.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	9.000	3.000	0.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.5000	0.5000	0.6667	0.5000	0.0000	0.3333	0.0556	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	15.000	3.000	1.000	8.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	0.4054	0.4250	0.5676	0.4054	0.0270	0.2162	0.0541	0.0270
season	0.20	28	-	100.000	33.000	8.000	1.000	12.000	9.000	10.000	9.000	0.3300	0.3894	0.4400	0.3300	0.0100	0.1200	0.1000	0.0900

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.4330
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.6290
predicted_AVG	0.4329
predicted_BB	0.2320
predicted_H	1.5710
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.0420
predicted_OBP	0.4516
predicted_R	0.2590
predicted_RBI	0.9060
predicted_SLG	0.5867
predicted_SO	0.1000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2860	0.4330	0.3816	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5710	3.6290	3.6087	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.4330	0.4329	0.4329	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3570	0.2320	0.2757	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2600	1.5710	1.4621	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0420	0.0378	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4520	0.4516	0.4517	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3210	0.2590	0.2807	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7300	0.9060	0.8444	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5870	0.5867	0.5868	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3210	0.1000	0.1774	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	2
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.33

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260506_OAK@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	643446
playerID	643446
playerName	Jeff McNeil
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	OAK
teamID	20

Brent Rooker (667670) · BATTER · DH · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 19

All-history rows before 20260507: 19

System season_avg: 0.1620

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1622

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.053	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.053	1.000	-0.053	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.895	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.895	3.000	1.105	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.213	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.162	0.333	-0.162	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.421	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.421	1.000	-0.421	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.750	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.632	1.000	-0.632	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.158	0.000	-0.158	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.269	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.238	0.500	-0.238	-0.500
predicted_R	0.368	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.368	0.000	-0.368	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.570	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.632	0.000	-0.632	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.105	0.000	-0.105	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.361	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.297	0.667	-0.297	-0.667
predicted_SO	1.474	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.474	2.000	0.526	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.053	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.895	-
predicted_AVG	0.213	-
predicted_BB	0.421	-
predicted_H	0.750	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.269	-
predicted_R	0.368	-
predicted_RBI	0.570	-
predicted_SLG	0.361	-
predicted_SO	1.474	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.106	0.053
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.008	0.113
predicted_AVG	0.213	0.000
predicted_BB	0.354	-0.067
predicted_H	0.827	0.077
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.150	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.269	-0.000
predicted_R	0.361	-0.007
predicted_RBI	0.628	0.058
predicted_SLG	0.361	0.000
predicted_SO	1.413	-0.060

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.01), rates preserved: AVG=0.206 HR/AB=0.038

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 3.895

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	7.000	0.2857	0.3182	0.4762	0.2857	0.0476	0.1905	0.0476	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	4.000	13.000	0.1500	0.2222	0.2500	0.1500	0.0250	0.1250	0.1000	0.3250
season	0.20	19	-	74.000	12.000	1.000	3.000	12.000	7.000	8.000	28.000	0.1622	0.2381	0.2973	0.1622	0.0405	0.1622	0.1081	0.3784

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1340
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.0690
predicted_AVG	0.2135
predicted_BB	0.3180
predicted_H	0.8690
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1560
predicted_OBP	0.2686
predicted_R	0.3580
predicted_RBI	0.6590
predicted_SLG	0.3613
predicted_SO	1.3810

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0530	0.1340	0.1057	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8950	4.0690	4.0081	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2130	0.2135	0.2133	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4210	0.3180	0.3540	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7500	0.8690	0.8273	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1560	0.1504	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2690	0.2686	0.2687	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3680	0.3580	0.3615	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5700	0.6590	0.6279	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3610	0.3613	0.3612	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4740	1.3810	1.4135	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.162

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	1
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260506_OAK@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	667670
playerID	667670
playerName	Brent Rooker
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	OAK
teamID	20

Jacob Wilson (805779) · BATTER · SS · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 35

All-history rows before 20260507: 35

System season_avg: 0.2930

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2925

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.229	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.229	0.000	-0.229	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.200	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.200	5.000	-0.200	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.326	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.293	0.200	-0.043	0.050
predicted_BB	0.114	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.114	0.000	-0.114	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.220	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.229	1.000	-0.229	0.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.057	0.000	-0.057	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.372	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.309	0.200	-0.059	0.050
predicted_R	0.457	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.457	0.000	0.543	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.457	1.000	-0.457	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.057	1.000	-0.057	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.396	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.388	0.200	-0.138	0.050
predicted_SO	0.486	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.486	1.000	0.514	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.229	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.200	-
predicted_AVG	0.326	-
predicted_BB	0.114	-
predicted_H	1.220	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.372	-
predicted_R	0.457	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.396	-
predicted_SO	0.486	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.237	0.008
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.015	-0.185
predicted_AVG	0.326	0.000
predicted_BB	0.243	0.129
predicted_H	1.257	0.037
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.011	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.372	-0.000
predicted_R	0.413	-0.044
predicted_RBI	0.278	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.396	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.441	-0.045

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.20), rates preserved: AVG=0.299 HR/AB=0.003

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 4.200

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	0.3158	0.3810	0.3684	0.3158	0.0000	0.0526	0.1053	0.1053
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	14.000	3.000	0.000	3.000	6.000	3.000	4.000	0.3590	0.3953	0.4359	0.3590	0.0000	0.0769	0.0769	0.1026
season	0.20	35	-	147.000	43.000	8.000	2.000	16.000	16.000	4.000	17.000	0.2925	0.3092	0.3878	0.2925	0.0136	0.1088	0.0272	0.1157

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2410
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.9150
predicted_AVG	0.3263
predicted_BB	0.3120
predicted_H	1.2770
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0110
predicted_OBP	0.3716
predicted_R	0.3890
predicted_RBI	0.2830
predicted_SLG	0.3959
predicted_SO	0.4170

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2290	0.2410	0.2368	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.2000	3.9150	4.0148	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3260	0.3263	0.3262	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1140	0.3120	0.2427	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2200	1.2770	1.2571	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0110	0.0106	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3720	0.3716	0.3717	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4570	0.3890	0.4128	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.2830	0.2784	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3960	0.3959	0.3959	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4860	0.4170	0.4411	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.293

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260506_OAK@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	805779
playerID	805779
playerName	Jacob Wilson
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	OAK
teamID	20

Shea Langeliers (669127) · BATTER · C · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 32

All-history rows before 20260507: 32

System season_avg: 0.3360

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3358

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.281	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.281	0.000	0.719	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.188	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	4.188	5.000	0.812	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.432	0.600	0.600	Hitting_AVG	0.336	0.600	0.264	0.000
predicted_BB	0.375	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.650	3.000	3.000	Hitting_H	1.406	3.000	1.594	0.000
predicted_HR	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.312	2.000	-0.312	-2.000
predicted_OBP	0.475	0.600	0.600	Hitting_OBP	0.390	0.600	0.210	0.000
predicted_R	0.750	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.750	2.000	0.250	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.560	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.562	3.000	-0.562	-3.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.804	0.800	0.800	Hitting_SLG	0.627	1.800	0.173	-1.000
predicted_SO	1.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	0.000	-1.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.281	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.188	-
predicted_AVG	0.432	-
predicted_BB	0.375	-
predicted_H	1.650	-
predicted_HR	0.300	-
predicted_OBP	0.475	-
predicted_R	0.750	-
predicted_RBI	0.560	-
predicted_SLG	0.804	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.481	0.200
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.321	0.133
predicted_AVG	0.432	0.000
predicted_BB	0.366	-0.009
predicted_H	1.811	0.161
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.331	0.031
predicted_OBP	0.475	0.000
predicted_R	0.835	0.085
predicted_RBI	0.617	0.057
predicted_SLG	0.804	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.655	-0.345

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.32), rates preserved: AVG=0.419 HR/AB=0.077

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	2.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	2.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 4.188

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	22.000	11.000	4.000	2.000	4.000	5.000	2.000	1.000	0.5000	0.5417	0.9545	0.5000	0.0909	0.1818	0.0909	0.0454
last_10	0.35	10	-	45.000	18.000	5.000	3.000	5.000	8.000	3.000	5.000	0.4000	0.4375	0.7111	0.4000	0.0667	0.1111	0.0667	0.1111
season	0.20	32	-	134.000	45.000	9.000	10.000	18.000	24.000	12.000	32.000	0.3358	0.3904	0.6269	0.3358	0.0746	0.1343	0.0896	0.2388

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.5890
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.3930
predicted_AVG	0.4322
predicted_BB	0.3610
predicted_H	1.8980
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.3480
predicted_OBP	0.4750
predicted_R	0.8800
predicted_RBI	0.6480
predicted_SLG	0.8038
predicted_SO	0.4700

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2810	0.5890	0.4812	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1880	4.3930	4.3212	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.4320	0.4322	0.4321	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3750	0.3610	0.3659	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.6500	1.8980	1.8112	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3000	0.3480	0.3312	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4750	0.4750	0.4750	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7500	0.8800	0.8345	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5600	0.6480	0.6172	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.8040	0.8038	0.8039	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.4700	0.6555	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	3
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.336

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.6
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	2
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	9
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260502_CLE@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	669127
playerID	669127
playerName	Shea Langeliers
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	OAK
teamID	20

Carlos Cortes (666126) · BATTER · RF · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 21

All-history rows before 20260507: 21

System season_avg: 0.3570

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3571

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_3B	0.048	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.048	0.000	-0.048	0.000
predicted_AB	3.333	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.333	3.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.410	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.357	0.000	-0.357	0.000
predicted_BB	0.333	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.190	0.000	-1.190	0.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.190	0.000	-0.190	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.439	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.416	0.000	-0.166	0.250
predicted_R	0.476	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.476	0.000	-0.476	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.619	0.000	-0.619	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.611	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.600	0.000	-0.600	0.000
predicted_SO	0.333	3.000	3.000	Hitting_SO	0.333	0.000	2.667	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.048	-
predicted_AB	3.333	-
predicted_AVG	0.410	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	1.250	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.439	-
predicted_R	0.476	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.611	-
predicted_SO	0.333	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.092	-0.051
predicted_3B	0.103	0.055
predicted_AB	3.622	0.289
predicted_AVG	0.410	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.245	-0.088
predicted_H	1.443	0.193
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.131	0.021
predicted_OBP	0.439	0.000
predicted_R	0.482	0.006
predicted_RBI	0.511	0.071
predicted_SLG	0.611	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.447	0.114

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.62), rates preserved: AVG=0.398 HR/AB=0.036

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	2.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	2.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	3.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	8.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	0.4211	0.4500	0.5263	0.4210	0.0000	0.1053	0.0526	0.1579
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	17.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	7.000	6.000	1.000	5.000	0.4250	0.4390	0.7250	0.4250	0.0750	0.1750	0.0250	0.1250
season	0.20	21	-	70.000	25.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	13.000	10.000	7.000	7.000	0.3571	0.4156	0.6000	0.3571	0.0571	0.1857	0.1000	0.1000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0650
predicted_3B	0.1330
predicted_AB	3.7770
predicted_AVG	0.4097
predicted_BB	0.1980
predicted_H	1.5470
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1420
predicted_OBP	0.4393
predicted_R	0.4850
predicted_RBI	0.5500
predicted_SLG	0.6106
predicted_SO	0.5090

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.0650	0.0923	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0480	0.1330	0.1033	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3330	3.7770	3.6216	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.4100	0.4097	0.4098	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.1980	0.2453	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2500	1.5470	1.4430	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1420	0.1308	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4390	0.4393	0.4392	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4760	0.4850	0.4818	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.5500	0.5115	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6110	0.6106	0.6107	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3330	0.5090	0.4474	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.357

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260506_OAK@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	666126
playerID	666126
playerName	Carlos Cortes
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	OAK
teamID	20

Lawrence Butler (671732) · BATTER · CF · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 25

All-history rows before 20260507: 25

System season_avg: 0.1910

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1910

Diff (system - data): -0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.080	0.000	-0.080	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.560	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.560	2.000	-0.560	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.194	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.191	0.000	-0.191	0.000
predicted_BB	0.560	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.560	2.000	0.440	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.080	0.000	-0.080	0.000
predicted_H	0.600	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.680	0.000	-0.680	0.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.120	0.000	-0.120	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.368	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.301	0.500	-0.051	-0.250
predicted_R	0.440	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.440	1.000	-0.440	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.560	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.480	0.000	-0.480	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.160	0.000	-0.160	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.352	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.315	0.000	-0.315	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.080	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.560	-
predicted_AVG	0.194	-
predicted_BB	0.560	-
predicted_H	0.600	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.368	-
predicted_R	0.440	-
predicted_RBI	0.560	-
predicted_SLG	0.352	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.060	-0.020
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.314	-0.246
predicted_AVG	0.194	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.775	0.215
predicted_H	0.611	0.011
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.151	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.368	0.000
predicted_R	0.482	0.042
predicted_RBI	0.574	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.352	0.000
predicted_SO	0.856	-0.144

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.56), rates preserved: AVG=0.172 HR/AB=0.042

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 25

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	5.000	3.000	0.2000	0.4000	0.4000	0.2000	0.0667	0.2000	0.3333	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	-	32.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	4.000	9.000	9.000	0.1875	0.3659	0.3125	0.1875	0.0312	0.1875	0.2812	0.2812
season	0.20	25	-	89.000	17.000	2.000	3.000	12.000	11.000	14.000	25.000	0.1910	0.3010	0.3146	0.1910	0.0337	0.1348	0.1573	0.2809

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0490
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.1820
predicted_AVG	0.1938
predicted_BB	0.8910
predicted_H	0.6170
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1520
predicted_OBP	0.3683
predicted_R	0.5040
predicted_RBI	0.5810
predicted_SLG	0.3523
predicted_SO	0.7780

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0800	0.0490	0.0599	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5600	3.1820	3.3143	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1940	0.1938	0.1939	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5600	0.8910	0.7752	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6000	0.6170	0.6110	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1520	0.1513	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3680	0.3683	0.3682	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4400	0.5040	0.4816	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5600	0.5810	0.5736	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3520	0.3523	0.3522	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.7780	0.8557	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	25
Season rows before report date	25
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	25
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.191

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF-RF
gameID	20260506_OAK@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	671732
playerID	671732
playerName	Lawrence Butler
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	OAK
teamID	20

J.T. Ginn (669372) · PITCHER · Starter · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 8

All-history rows before 20260507: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.750	5.000	1.250	-2.000
predicted_IP	4.200	4.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	3.462	4.100	0.738	0.100
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	-	Pitching_SO	2.875	4.000	1.125	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 4.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	22.100	10.000	17.000	12.000	19.000	3.000	4.0299	1.2985	0.4478	0.7612	0.5373	0.8508	0.1343
last_10	0.35	8	29.100	14.000	23.000	14.000	23.000	4.000	4.2955	1.2614	0.4773	0.7841	0.4773	0.7841	0.1364
season	0.20	8	29.100	14.000	23.000	14.000	23.000	4.000	4.2955	1.2614	0.4773	0.7841	0.4773	0.7841	0.1364

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.0000
predicted_ER	1.8400
predicted_ERA	4.1760
predicted_H	3.0690
predicted_HR	0.5370
predicted_IP	4.0000
predicted_SO	3.2290
predicted_WHIP	1.2781

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	2.0000	1.6500	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	1.8400	2.2460	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.1760	4.1760	form_only
predicted_H	7.0000	3.0690	4.4448	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.5370	0.3491	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.2000	4.0000	4.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	4.0000	3.2290	3.4989	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2781	1.2781	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.2
H	7
R	3
ER	3
BB	1
SO	4
HR	0
BF	23
Pitches	84

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	5
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	23
Pitching_ER	5
Pitching_ERA	4.30
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	5
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	4.1
Pitching_Pitches	88
Pitching_R	5
Pitching_SO	4
Pitching_Strikes	50
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260501_CLE@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	669372
playerID	669372
playerName	J.T. Ginn
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	OAK
teamID	20

Joel Kuhnel (669270) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 12

All-history rows before 20260507: 12

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.250	0.000	2.750	3.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.842	1.000	0.358	0.200
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.417	0.000	0.583	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	2.000	6.000	4.000	2.000	3.1765	1.7647	0.3529	1.0588	0.7059	0.3529
last_10	0.35	10	11.100	3.000	10.000	4.000	4.000	2.3824	1.2353	0.2647	0.8823	0.3529	0.3529
season	0.20	12	12.200	3.000	10.000	4.000	5.000	2.1316	1.1053	0.2368	0.7895	0.3158	0.3947

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5040
predicted_ER	0.2990
predicted_ERA	2.6896
predicted_H	0.9430
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.3610
predicted_WHIP	1.4475

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.5040	1.0276	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	0.2990	1.2443	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.6896	2.6896	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.9430	1.3129	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.0000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.3610	0.5847	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4475	1.4475	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	2
R	3
ER	3
BB	2
SO	1
HR	0
BF	7
Pitches	35

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.13
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_CLE@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	669270
playerID	669270
playerName	Joel Kuhnel
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	OAK
teamID	20

Jack Perkins (678022) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 9

All-history rows before 20260507: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.667	2.000	-0.667	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.500	1.100	-0.400	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	2.111	2.000	-1.111	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	7.100	2.000	4.000	1.000	9.000	2.4545	0.6818	0.2727	0.5454	0.1364	1.2273
last_10	0.35	9	14.200	6.000	13.000	4.000	19.000	3.6818	1.1591	0.4091	0.8864	0.2727	1.2954
season	0.20	9	14.200	6.000	13.000	4.000	19.000	3.6818	1.1591	0.4091	0.8864	0.2727	1.2954

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3210
predicted_ER	0.5270
predicted_ERA	3.1295
predicted_H	1.1120
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.2000
predicted_SO	1.9180
predicted_WHIP	0.9443

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3210	0.5586	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5270	0.3426	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.1295	3.1295	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.1120	1.0728	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.2000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.9180	1.5967	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9443	0.9443	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	8
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	3.68
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	33
Pitching_R	4
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	22
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L, BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_OAK@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	678022
playerID	678022
playerName	Jack Perkins
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	OAK
teamID	20

Hogan Harris (663687) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 20

All-history rows before 20260507: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.300	0.000	-0.300	0.000
predicted_IP	0.100	0.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.710	0.200	-0.610	-0.100
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.950	0.000	1.050	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 0.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	2.000	7.000	4.000	4.000	1.000	4.5000	2.7500	0.5000	1.7500	1.0000	1.0000	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	8.200	3.000	10.000	4.000	9.000	2.000	3.1154	1.6154	0.3462	1.1539	0.4615	1.0385	0.2308
season	0.20	20	19.100	6.000	17.000	16.000	19.000	2.000	2.7931	1.7069	0.3103	0.8793	0.8276	0.9828	0.1035

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6600
predicted_ER	0.3470
predicted_ERA	3.6740
predicted_H	1.1620
predicted_HR	0.1820
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8590
predicted_WHIP	2.1443

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.6600	0.4290	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3470	0.2256	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.6740	3.6740	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.1620	0.7553	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1820	0.1183	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	1.0000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.8590	1.2584	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	2.1443	2.1443	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.79
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	2
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	9
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	6
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_OAK@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	663687
playerID	663687
playerName	Hogan Harris
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	OAK
teamID	20

Home Team: PHI

Brandon Marsh (669016) · BATTER · LF · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 30

All-history rows before 20260507: 30

System season_avg: 0.3360

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3362

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.033	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.033	1.000	-0.033	-1.000
predicted_AB	3.867	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.867	4.000	0.133	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.446	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.336	0.750	-0.086	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.133	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.570	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.300	3.000	-0.300	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.480	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.358	0.750	-0.108	-0.500
predicted_R	0.567	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.567	1.000	-0.567	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.510	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.633	1.000	-0.633	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.633	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.509	1.250	-0.259	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.767	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.767	0.000	0.233	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.033	-
predicted_AB	3.867	-
predicted_AVG	0.446	-
predicted_BB	0.133	-
predicted_H	1.570	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.480	-
predicted_R	0.567	-
predicted_RBI	0.510	-
predicted_SLG	0.633	-
predicted_SO	0.767	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.097	0.064
predicted_AB	3.959	0.092
predicted_AVG	0.446	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.168	0.035
predicted_H	1.711	0.141
predicted_HBP	0.131	-
predicted_HR	0.090	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.480	0.000
predicted_R	0.768	0.201
predicted_RBI	0.559	0.049
predicted_SLG	0.633	0.000
predicted_SO	0.645	-0.122

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.96), rates preserved: AVG=0.432 HR/AB=0.023

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	2.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	2.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.867

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	10.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	1.000	2.000	0.5000	0.5455	0.6500	0.5000	0.0000	0.1000	0.0500	0.1000
last_10	0.35	10	-	41.000	18.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	8.000	9.000	2.000	7.000	0.4390	0.4667	0.6829	0.4390	0.0488	0.1951	0.0488	0.1707
season	0.20	30	-	116.000	39.000	6.000	1.000	4.000	19.000	17.000	4.000	23.000	0.3362	0.3577	0.5086	0.3362	0.0345	0.1638	0.0345	0.1983

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2000
predicted_3B	0.1310
predicted_AB	4.0080
predicted_AVG	0.4459
predicted_BB	0.1860
predicted_H	1.7870
predicted_HBP	0.1310
predicted_HR	0.0960
predicted_OBP	0.4804
predicted_R	0.8760
predicted_RBI	0.5850
predicted_SLG	0.6332
predicted_SO	0.5790

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0330	0.1310	0.0967	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8670	4.0080	3.9586	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.4460	0.4459	0.4459	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1330	0.1860	0.1675	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.5700	1.7870	1.7111	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1310	0.1310	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0960	0.0904	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4800	0.4804	0.4803	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5670	0.8760	0.7678	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5100	0.5850	0.5587	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6330	0.6332	0.6331	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7670	0.5790	0.6448	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.336

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	1
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.75
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF-LF
gameID	20260506_OAK@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	669016
playerID	669016
playerName	Brandon Marsh
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	PHI
teamID	21

Kyle Schwarber (656941) · BATTER · DH · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 37

All-history rows before 20260507: 37

System season_avg: 0.2070

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2074

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.189	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.189	1.000	-0.189	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.027	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_AB	3.649	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.649	3.000	1.351	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.200	0.200	0.200	Hitting_AVG	0.207	0.333	-0.007	-0.133
predicted_BB	0.703	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.703	1.000	-0.703	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.660	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.757	1.000	0.243	0.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.297	0.000	-0.297	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.313	0.200	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.352	0.500	-0.152	-0.300
predicted_R	0.622	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.622	1.000	0.378	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.260	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.541	0.000	-0.541	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.403	0.200	0.200	Hitting_SLG	0.519	0.667	-0.319	-0.467
predicted_SO	1.405	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.405	1.000	-0.405	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.189	-
predicted_3B	0.027	-
predicted_AB	3.649	-
predicted_AVG	0.200	-
predicted_BB	0.703	-
predicted_H	0.660	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.313	-
predicted_R	0.622	-
predicted_RBI	0.260	-
predicted_SLG	0.403	-
predicted_SO	1.405	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.218	0.029
predicted_3B	0.013	-0.014
predicted_AB	3.682	0.033
predicted_AVG	0.200	0.000
predicted_BB	0.640	-0.063
predicted_H	0.712	0.052
predicted_HBP	0.022	-
predicted_HR	0.162	0.012
predicted_OBP	0.313	-0.000
predicted_R	0.577	-0.045
predicted_RBI	0.279	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.403	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.356	-0.049

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.68), rates preserved: AVG=0.193 HR/AB=0.044

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	0.1579	0.2381	0.2105	0.1579	0.0000	0.0000	0.1053	0.3684
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	9.000	3.000	0.000	3.000	5.000	7.000	8.000	12.000	0.2500	0.3864	0.5833	0.2500	0.0833	0.1389	0.2222	0.3333
season	0.20	37	-	135.000	28.000	7.000	1.000	11.000	20.000	23.000	26.000	52.000	0.2074	0.3515	0.5185	0.2074	0.0815	0.1482	0.1926	0.3852

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2340
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.7000
predicted_AVG	0.2000
predicted_BB	0.6060
predicted_H	0.7400
predicted_HBP	0.0220
predicted_HR	0.1680
predicted_OBP	0.3127
predicted_R	0.5530
predicted_RBI	0.2890
predicted_SLG	0.4026
predicted_SO	1.3300

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1890	0.2340	0.2182	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0270	0.0050	0.0127	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6490	3.7000	3.6822	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7030	0.6060	0.6400	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6600	0.7400	0.7120	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0220	0.0220	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1680	0.1617	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3130	0.3127	0.3128	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6220	0.5530	0.5772	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2600	0.2890	0.2788	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4030	0.4026	0.4027	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4050	1.3300	1.3562	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.207

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260506_OAK@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	656941
playerID	656941
playerName	Kyle Schwarber
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	PHI
teamID	21

Trea Turner (607208) · BATTER · SS · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 36

All-history rows before 20260507: 36

System season_avg: 0.2400

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2400

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.194	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.194	0.000	-0.194	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.167	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.167	5.000	-0.167	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.240	0.200	-0.240	-0.200
predicted_BB	0.333	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.860	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.236	0.200	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.296	0.200	-0.096	0.000
predicted_R	0.639	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.639	0.000	-0.639	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.323	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.367	0.200	-0.367	-0.200
predicted_SO	0.917	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.917	1.000	0.083	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.194	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.167	-
predicted_AVG	0.220	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.860	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.236	-
predicted_R	0.639	-
predicted_RBI	0.230	-
predicted_SLG	0.323	-
predicted_SO	0.917	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.255	0.060
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.369	0.202
predicted_AVG	0.220	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.185	-0.148
predicted_H	0.940	0.080
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.056	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.236	0.000
predicted_R	0.665	0.026
predicted_RBI	0.252	0.022
predicted_SLG	0.323	0.000
predicted_SO	0.983	0.066

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.37), rates preserved: AVG=0.215 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 4.167

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	23.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	0.000	5.000	0.1739	0.1739	0.2609	0.1739	0.0000	0.0435	0.0000	0.2174
last_10	0.35	10	-	45.000	12.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	8.000	1.000	11.000	0.2667	0.2826	0.3778	0.2667	0.0222	0.0667	0.0222	0.2444
season	0.20	36	-	150.000	36.000	7.000	4.000	12.000	23.000	12.000	33.000	0.2400	0.2963	0.3667	0.2400	0.0267	0.0800	0.0800	0.2200

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2870
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.4780
predicted_AVG	0.2196
predicted_BB	0.1060
predicted_H	0.9830
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0590
predicted_OBP	0.2364
predicted_R	0.6790
predicted_RBI	0.2640
predicted_SLG	0.3230
predicted_SO	1.0180

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1940	0.2870	0.2545	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1670	4.4780	4.3691	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2200	0.2196	0.2197	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.1060	0.1855	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8600	0.9830	0.9400	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0590	0.0558	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2360	0.2364	0.2363	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6390	0.6790	0.6650	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2300	0.2640	0.2521	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3230	0.3230	0.3230	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9170	1.0180	0.9827	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.24

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260506_OAK@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	607208
playerID	607208
playerName	Trea Turner
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	PHI
teamID	21

Edmundo Sosa (624641) · BATTER · 3B · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 13

All-history rows before 20260507: 13

System season_avg: 0.2730

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2727

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.231	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.231	0.000	-0.231	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.385	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.385	4.000	-0.385	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.361	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.273	0.500	0.061	-0.167
predicted_BB	0.077	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.077	0.000	0.923	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.060	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.923	2.000	0.077	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.365	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.289	0.500	0.211	0.000
predicted_R	0.308	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.308	1.000	0.692	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.630	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.538	2.000	-0.538	-2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.467	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.409	0.500	-0.076	-0.167
predicted_SO	0.769	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.769	1.000	0.231	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.231	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.385	-
predicted_AVG	0.361	-
predicted_BB	0.077	-
predicted_H	1.060	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.365	-
predicted_R	0.308	-
predicted_RBI	0.630	-
predicted_SLG	0.467	-
predicted_SO	0.769	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.215	-0.016
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.357	-0.028
predicted_AVG	0.361	0.000
predicted_BB	0.037	-0.040
predicted_H	1.156	0.096
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.046	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.365	-0.000
predicted_R	0.356	0.048
predicted_RBI	0.686	0.056
predicted_SLG	0.467	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.725	-0.044

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.38), rates preserved: AVG=0.342 HR/AB=0.014

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	0.4375	0.4375	0.5000	0.4375	0.0000	0.2500	0.0000	0.1875
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	11.000	2.000	1.000	7.000	4.000	0.000	8.000	0.3143	0.3143	0.4571	0.3143	0.0286	0.2000	0.0000	0.2286
season	0.20	13	-	44.000	12.000	3.000	1.000	7.000	4.000	1.000	10.000	0.2727	0.2889	0.4091	0.2727	0.0227	0.1591	0.0227	0.2273

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2060
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.3420
predicted_AVG	0.3614
predicted_BB	0.0150
predicted_H	1.2080
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0490
predicted_OBP	0.3647
predicted_R	0.3820
predicted_RBI	0.7160
predicted_SLG	0.4668
predicted_SO	0.7010

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2310	0.2060	0.2147	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3850	3.3420	3.3571	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3610	0.3614	0.3613	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0770	0.0150	0.0367	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0600	1.2080	1.1562	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0490	0.0459	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3650	0.3647	0.3648	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3080	0.3820	0.3561	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6300	0.7160	0.6859	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4670	0.4668	0.4669	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7690	0.7010	0.7248	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.273

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B-3B
gameID	20260506_OAK@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	624641
playerID	624641
playerName	Edmundo Sosa
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	PHI
teamID	21

Adolis García (666969) · BATTER · RF · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 35

All-history rows before 20260507: 35

System season_avg: 0.2400

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2403

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_3B	0.029	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_AB	3.686	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.686	4.000	0.314	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.256	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.240	0.500	-0.240	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.343	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.343	0.000	-0.343	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.860	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.886	2.000	-0.886	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.086	1.000	-0.086	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.296	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.310	0.500	-0.310	-0.500
predicted_R	0.314	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.314	2.000	-0.314	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.430	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.343	1.000	-0.343	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.406	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.364	1.250	-0.364	-1.250
predicted_SO	1.057	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.057	1.000	0.943	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.029	-
predicted_AB	3.686	-
predicted_AVG	0.256	-
predicted_BB	0.343	-
predicted_H	0.860	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.296	-
predicted_R	0.314	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.406	-
predicted_SO	1.057	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.092	-0.051
predicted_3B	0.036	0.007
predicted_AB	3.768	0.082
predicted_AVG	0.256	0.000
predicted_BB	0.292	-0.051
predicted_H	0.936	0.076
predicted_HBP	0.012	-
predicted_HR	0.138	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.296	0.000
predicted_R	0.381	0.067
predicted_RBI	0.470	0.040
predicted_SLG	0.406	0.000
predicted_SO	1.028	-0.029

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.77), rates preserved: AVG=0.248 HR/AB=0.037

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	0.2632	0.2857	0.4211	0.2632	0.0526	0.1053	0.0526	0.2632
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	10.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	5.000	3.000	10.000	0.2564	0.3023	0.4103	0.2564	0.0256	0.1795	0.0769	0.2564
season	0.20	35	-	129.000	31.000	5.000	1.000	3.000	12.000	11.000	12.000	37.000	0.2403	0.3103	0.3643	0.2403	0.0233	0.0930	0.0930	0.2868

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0640
predicted_3B	0.0400
predicted_AB	3.8120
predicted_AVG	0.2562
predicted_BB	0.2640
predicted_H	0.9770
predicted_HBP	0.0120
predicted_HR	0.1420
predicted_OBP	0.2964
predicted_R	0.4170
predicted_RBI	0.4910
predicted_SLG	0.4060
predicted_SO	1.0120

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.0640	0.0916	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0290	0.0400	0.0362	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6860	3.8120	3.7679	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2560	0.2562	0.2561	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3430	0.2640	0.2917	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8600	0.9770	0.9361	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0120	0.0120	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1420	0.1378	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2960	0.2964	0.2963	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3140	0.4170	0.3810	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.4910	0.4697	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4060	0.4060	0.4060	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0570	1.0120	1.0277	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.24

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260506_OAK@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	666969
playerID	666969
playerName	Adolis García
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	PHI
teamID	21

Bryce Harper (547180) · BATTER · 1B · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 37

All-history rows before 20260507: 37

System season_avg: 0.2770

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2774

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.243	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.243	0.000	0.757	1.000
predicted_3B	0.027	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_AB	3.703	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.703	4.000	0.297	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.325	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.277	0.000	-0.027	0.250
predicted_BB	0.541	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.541	0.000	-0.541	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_H	1.110	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.027	0.000	-0.027	1.000
predicted_HR	0.380	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.243	0.000	-0.243	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.405	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.367	0.000	-0.117	0.250
predicted_R	0.622	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.622	1.000	0.378	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.600	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.622	0.000	0.378	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.054	0.000	-0.054	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.764	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.555	0.000	-0.055	0.500
predicted_SO	0.676	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.676	0.000	-0.676	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.243	-
predicted_3B	0.027	-
predicted_AB	3.703	-
predicted_AVG	0.325	-
predicted_BB	0.541	-
predicted_H	1.110	-
predicted_HR	0.380	-
predicted_OBP	0.405	-
predicted_R	0.622	-
predicted_RBI	0.600	-
predicted_SLG	0.764	-
predicted_SO	0.676	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.324	0.081
predicted_3B	0.013	-0.014
predicted_AB	3.731	0.028
predicted_AVG	0.325	0.000
predicted_BB	0.514	-0.027
predicted_H	1.180	0.070
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.407	0.027
predicted_OBP	0.405	-0.000
predicted_R	0.829	0.207
predicted_RBI	0.638	0.038
predicted_SLG	0.764	0.000
predicted_SO	0.602	-0.074

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.73), rates preserved: AVG=0.316 HR/AB=0.109

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	7.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	6.000	2.000	2.000	0.3684	0.4286	0.9474	0.3684	0.1579	0.2105	0.1053	0.1053
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	11.000	4.000	0.000	3.000	5.000	8.000	6.000	7.000	0.2973	0.3953	0.6486	0.2973	0.0811	0.1351	0.1622	0.1892
season	0.20	37	-	137.000	38.000	9.000	1.000	9.000	23.000	23.000	20.000	25.000	0.2774	0.3671	0.5547	0.2774	0.0657	0.1679	0.1460	0.1825

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3680
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.7460
predicted_AVG	0.3253
predicted_BB	0.4990
predicted_H	1.2180
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.4220
predicted_OBP	0.4046
predicted_R	0.9410
predicted_RBI	0.6580
predicted_SLG	0.7643
predicted_SO	0.5620

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2430	0.3680	0.3242	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0270	0.0050	0.0127	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7030	3.7460	3.7309	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3250	0.3253	0.3252	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5410	0.4990	0.5137	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1100	1.2180	1.1802	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3800	0.4220	0.4073	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4050	0.4046	0.4047	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6220	0.9410	0.8294	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6000	0.6580	0.6377	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.7640	0.7643	0.7642	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6760	0.5620	0.6019	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.277

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260506_OAK@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	547180
playerID	547180
playerName	Bryce Harper
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	PHI
teamID	21

Rafael Marchán (665561) · BATTER · C · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 12

All-history rows before 20260507: 12

System season_avg: 0.0930

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.0930

Diff (system - data): -0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.583	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.583	4.000	0.417	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.076	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.093	0.000	0.407	0.500
predicted_BB	0.083	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.220	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.333	0.000	1.667	2.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.151	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.152	0.000	0.348	0.500
predicted_R	0.250	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.250	0.000	0.750	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.030	4.000	4.000	Hitting_RBI	0.167	0.000	3.833	4.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.090	0.750	0.750	Hitting_SLG	0.163	0.000	0.587	0.750
predicted_SO	0.750	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.750	1.000	0.250	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.583	-
predicted_AVG	0.076	-
predicted_BB	0.083	-
predicted_H	0.220	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.151	-
predicted_R	0.250	-
predicted_RBI	0.030	-
predicted_SLG	0.090	-
predicted_SO	0.750	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.475	-0.108
predicted_AVG	0.076	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.123	0.040
predicted_H	0.245	0.025
predicted_HBP	0.161	-
predicted_HR	0.014	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.151	0.000
predicted_R	0.286	0.036
predicted_RBI	0.031	0.001
predicted_SLG	0.090	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.653	-0.097

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.58), rates preserved: AVG=0.068 HR/AB=0.004

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	4.000	4.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	0.0625	0.1667	0.0625	0.0625	0.0000	0.0000	0.0625	0.1250
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	8.000	0.0833	0.1316	0.0833	0.0833	0.0000	0.0000	0.0278	0.2222
season	0.20	12	-	43.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	9.000	0.0930	0.1522	0.1628	0.0930	0.0233	0.0465	0.0233	0.2093

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.4170
predicted_AVG	0.0759
predicted_BB	0.1450
predicted_H	0.2590
predicted_HBP	0.1610
predicted_HR	0.0160
predicted_OBP	0.1515
predicted_R	0.3060
predicted_RBI	0.0320
predicted_SLG	0.0898
predicted_SO	0.6010

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5830	3.4170	3.4751	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.0760	0.0759	0.0759	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0830	0.1450	0.1233	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.2200	0.2590	0.2454	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1610	0.1610	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0160	0.0139	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1510	0.1515	0.1513	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2500	0.3060	0.2864	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0300	0.0320	0.0313	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.0900	0.0898	0.0899	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7500	0.6010	0.6531	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	4
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.093

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260501_PHI@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	665561
playerID	665561
playerName	Rafael Marchán
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	PHI
teamID	21

Bryson Stott (681082) · BATTER · 2B · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 27

All-history rows before 20260507: 27

System season_avg: 0.2100

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2100

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.111	1.000	-0.111	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.074	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.074	0.000	-0.074	0.000
predicted_AB	3.704	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.704	4.000	-0.704	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.218	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.210	0.500	0.123	-0.167
predicted_BB	0.222	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.222	0.000	0.778	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.710	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.778	2.000	0.222	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.111	1.000	-0.111	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.261	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.262	0.500	0.238	0.000
predicted_R	0.333	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.333	1.000	0.667	0.000
predicted_RBI	1.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.444	2.000	-0.444	-2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.632	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.370	1.500	-0.037	-1.167
predicted_SO	0.667	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.667	0.000	0.333	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	-
predicted_3B	0.074	-
predicted_AB	3.704	-
predicted_AVG	0.218	-
predicted_BB	0.222	-
predicted_H	0.710	-
predicted_HR	0.360	-
predicted_OBP	0.261	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	1.040	-
predicted_SLG	0.632	-
predicted_SO	0.667	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.135	0.024
predicted_3B	0.081	0.007
predicted_AB	3.673	-0.031
predicted_AVG	0.218	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.210	-0.012
predicted_H	0.766	0.056
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.386	0.026
predicted_OBP	0.261	-0.000
predicted_R	0.509	0.176
predicted_RBI	1.121	0.081
predicted_SLG	0.632	0.000
predicted_SO	0.595	-0.072

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.70), rates preserved: AVG=0.207 HR/AB=0.104

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	8.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	0.2222	0.2632	0.7778	0.2222	0.1667	0.4444	0.0556	0.1111
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	8.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	10.000	5.000	2.000	7.000	0.2162	0.2564	0.5946	0.2162	0.0811	0.2703	0.0541	0.1892
season	0.20	27	-	100.000	21.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	12.000	9.000	6.000	18.000	0.2100	0.2617	0.3700	0.2100	0.0300	0.1200	0.0600	0.1800

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1480
predicted_3B	0.0840
predicted_AB	3.6560
predicted_AVG	0.2177
predicted_BB	0.2040
predicted_H	0.7960
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.4000
predicted_OBP	0.2605
predicted_R	0.6040
predicted_RBI	1.1650
predicted_SLG	0.6321
predicted_SO	0.5560

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1110	0.1480	0.1351	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0740	0.0840	0.0805	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7040	3.6560	3.6728	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2180	0.2177	0.2178	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2220	0.2040	0.2103	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7100	0.7960	0.7659	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3600	0.4000	0.3860	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2610	0.2605	0.2607	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.6040	0.5091	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	1.0400	1.1650	1.1213	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6320	0.6321	0.6321	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6670	0.5560	0.5949	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	6
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260505_OAK@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	681082
playerID	681082
playerName	Bryson Stott
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	PHI
teamID	21

Justin Crawford (702222) · BATTER · CF · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 30

All-history rows before 20260507: 30

System season_avg: 0.2720

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2718

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.233	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.233	1.000	0.767	0.000
predicted_3B	0.067	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_AB	3.433	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.433	4.000	-0.433	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.267	1.000	1.000	Hitting_AVG	0.272	0.500	0.728	0.500
predicted_BB	0.267	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.267	0.000	0.733	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_H	0.750	3.000	3.000	Hitting_H	0.933	2.000	2.067	1.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.303	1.000	1.000	Hitting_OBP	0.336	0.500	0.664	0.500
predicted_R	0.300	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.300	1.000	0.700	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.280	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.233	0.000	0.767	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.423	1.333	1.333	Hitting_SLG	0.379	0.750	0.955	0.583
predicted_SO	0.733	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.733	1.000	-0.733	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.233	-
predicted_3B	0.067	-
predicted_AB	3.433	-
predicted_AVG	0.267	-
predicted_BB	0.267	-
predicted_H	0.750	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.303	-
predicted_R	0.300	-
predicted_RBI	0.280	-
predicted_SLG	0.423	-
predicted_SO	0.733	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.277	0.044
predicted_3B	0.115	0.048
predicted_AB	3.611	0.178
predicted_AVG	0.267	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.212	-0.055
predicted_H	0.905	0.155
predicted_HBP	0.014	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.303	0.000
predicted_R	0.249	-0.051
predicted_RBI	0.335	0.055
predicted_SLG	0.423	0.000
predicted_SO	0.709	-0.024

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.61), rates preserved: AVG=0.251 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	5.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	0.2778	0.3158	0.5000	0.2778	0.1111	0.0556	0.1667
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	10.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	8.000	0.2500	0.2683	0.3500	0.2500	0.1000	0.0250	0.2000
season	0.20	30	-	103.000	28.000	7.000	2.000	7.000	9.000	8.000	22.000	0.2718	0.3363	0.3786	0.2718	0.0680	0.0777	0.2136

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3010
predicted_3B	0.1400
predicted_AB	3.7070
predicted_AVG	0.2669
predicted_BB	0.1830
predicted_H	0.9890
predicted_HBP	0.0140
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.3033
predicted_R	0.2220
predicted_RBI	0.3650
predicted_SLG	0.4232
predicted_SO	0.6960

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2330	0.3010	0.2772	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0670	0.1400	0.1145	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4330	3.7070	3.6111	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2670	0.2669	0.2669	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2670	0.1830	0.2124	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7500	0.9890	0.9053	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0140	0.0140	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3030	0.3033	0.3032	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3000	0.2220	0.2493	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2800	0.3650	0.3352	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4230	0.4232	0.4231	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7330	0.6960	0.7089	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	3
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.272

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260505_OAK@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	702222
playerID	702222
playerName	Justin Crawford
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	PHI
teamID	21

Andrew Painter (691725) · PITCHER · Starter · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 6

All-history rows before 20260507: 6

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	2.833	3.000	-0.833	-1.000
predicted_IP	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.717	5.000	-2.717	-3.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	4.667	7.000	-4.667	-7.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 2.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	23.200	16.000	33.000	8.000	20.000	3.000	6.0845	1.7324	0.6761	1.3944	0.3380	0.8451	0.1268
last_10	0.35	6	29.000	17.000	37.000	9.000	28.000	3.000	5.2759	1.5862	0.5862	1.2759	0.3103	0.9655	0.1035
season	0.20	6	29.000	17.000	37.000	9.000	28.000	3.000	5.2759	1.5862	0.5862	1.2759	0.3103	0.9655	0.1035

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.5060
predicted_ER	2.9240
predicted_ERA	5.6398
predicted_H	6.2030
predicted_HR	0.5320
predicted_IP	4.2000
predicted_SO	4.2530
predicted_WHIP	1.6520

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	1.5060	1.3289	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.9240	2.6006	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.6398	5.6398	form_only
predicted_H	5.0000	6.2030	5.7820	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.5320	0.6958	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	2.0000	4.2000	3.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	4.2530	2.7645	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.6520	1.6520	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.0
H	5
R	2
ER	2
BB	1
SO	0
HR	1
BF	12
Pitches	48

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	25
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	5.28
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	7
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.0
Pitching_Pitches	99
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	7
Pitching_Strikes	61
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260502_PHI@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	691725
playerID	691725
playerName	Andrew Painter
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	PHI
teamID	21

Brad Keller (641745) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 16

All-history rows before 20260507: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.438	0.000	-0.438
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.906	1.000	0.094
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	2.000	4.000	3.000	7.000	0.000	3.3750	1.3125	0.3750	0.7500	0.5625	1.3125	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	4.000	8.000	5.000	12.000	1.000	3.7241	1.3448	0.4138	0.8276	0.5172	1.2414	0.1035
season	0.20	16	15.200	7.000	13.000	6.000	16.000	2.000	4.0213	1.2128	0.4468	0.8298	0.3830	1.0213	0.1277

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5110
predicted_ER	0.4030
predicted_ERA	3.6264
predicted_H	0.7930
predicted_HR	0.0620
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.2290
predicted_WHIP	1.3039

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5110	0.3322	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4030	0.2620	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.6264	3.6264	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7930	0.5155	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0620	0.0403	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.2290	1.1488	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3039	1.3039	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.02
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	22
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_OAK@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	641745
playerID	641745
playerName	Brad Keller
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PHI
teamID	21

Jonathan Bowlan (680742) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 9

All-history rows before 20260507: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.889	3.000	0.111	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.756	0.200	0.244	0.800
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	5.000	5.000	3.000	5.000	9.6429	1.7143	1.0714	1.0714	0.6429	1.0714
last_10	0.35	9	8.200	8.000	11.000	3.000	9.000	8.3077	1.6154	0.9231	1.2692	0.3462	1.0385
season	0.20	9	8.200	8.000	11.000	3.000	9.000	8.3077	1.6154	0.9231	1.2692	0.3462	1.0385

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4800
predicted_ER	0.9900
predicted_ERA	8.9085
predicted_H	1.1800
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0530
predicted_WHIP	1.6599

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4800	0.3120	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.9900	0.9935	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	8.9085	8.9085	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.1800	1.1170	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.0530	1.3844	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.6599	1.6599	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	8.31
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	31
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	18
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260501_PHI@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	680742
playerID	680742
playerName	Jonathan Bowlan
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PHI
teamID	21

José Alvarado (621237) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 17

All-history rows before 20260507: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.471	0.000	0.529	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.547	0.200	0.453	0.800
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.941	2.000	-0.941	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	0.000	6.000	2.000	5.000	0.0000	2.0000	0.0000	1.5000	0.5000	1.2500
last_10	0.35	10	7.200	3.000	12.000	4.000	9.000	3.5217	2.0870	0.3913	1.5652	0.5217	1.1739
season	0.20	17	12.100	8.000	19.000	7.000	16.000	5.8378	2.1081	0.6486	1.5405	0.5676	1.2973

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3470
predicted_ER	0.1780
predicted_ERA	2.4002
predicted_H	1.0210
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.8220
predicted_WHIP	2.0521

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3470	0.2256	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.1780	0.4657	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.4002	2.4002	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.0210	0.6636	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.8220	0.5343	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	2.0521	2.0521	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	9

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.84
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_OAK@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	621237
playerID	621237
playerName	José Alvarado
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PHI
teamID	21

Orion Kerkering (689147) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 14

All-history rows before 20260507: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.214	0.000	-0.214	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.829	0.100	0.171	0.900
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.643	0.000	0.357	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	0.000	0.0000	0.5000	0.0000	0.5000	0.0000	0.7500	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.200	1.000	5.000	5.000	5.000	1.000	1.0385	1.1538	0.1154	0.5769	0.5769	0.5769	0.1154
season	0.20	14	13.000	3.000	9.000	6.000	9.000	1.000	2.0769	1.1538	0.2308	0.6923	0.4615	0.6923	0.0769

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2500
predicted_ER	0.0740
predicted_ERA	0.7789
predicted_H	0.4810
predicted_HR	0.0470
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.5760
predicted_WHIP	0.8596

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.2500	0.5125	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.0740	0.0481	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.7789	0.7789	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.4810	0.6626	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0470	0.0306	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.5760	0.7244	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.8596	0.8596	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	1
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.08
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	5
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	4
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_OAK@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	689147
playerID	689147
playerName	Orion Kerkering
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PHI
teamID	21

Tim Mayza (641835) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 16

All-history rows before 20260507: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.438	0.000	0.562	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.094	0.200	-0.094	0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.188	1.000	-0.188	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	0.000	4.000	2.000	6.000	0.000	0.0000	1.0588	0.0000	0.7059	0.3529	1.0588	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	11.000	7.000	10.000	6.000	10.000	2.000	5.7273	1.4545	0.6364	0.9091	0.5454	0.9091	0.1818
season	0.20	16	18.200	7.000	12.000	7.000	19.000	2.000	3.3750	1.0179	0.3750	0.6429	0.3750	1.0179	0.1071

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4530
predicted_ER	0.3180
predicted_ERA	2.6796
predicted_H	0.8150
predicted_HR	0.0910
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0650
predicted_WHIP	1.1891

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.4530	0.6444	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.3180	0.5567	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.6796	2.6796	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.8150	0.8797	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0910	0.0592	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0650	1.0423	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1891	1.1891	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	2
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.38
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	7
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	4
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_OAK@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	641835
playerID	641835
playerName	Tim Mayza
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PHI
teamID	21

Jhoan Duran (661395) · PITCHER · Reliever · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 9

All-history rows before 20260507: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.222	1.000	-0.222	-1.000
predicted_IP	0.100	0.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.800	1.000	-0.700	-0.900
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.111	2.000	-0.111	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 0.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	1.8000	1.0000	0.2000	0.4000	0.6000	1.0000
last_10	0.35	8	7.200	2.000	6.000	3.000	10.000	2.3478	1.1739	0.2609	0.7826	0.3913	1.3043
season	0.20	8	7.200	2.000	6.000	3.000	10.000	2.3478	1.1739	0.2609	0.7826	0.3913	1.3043

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4850
predicted_ER	0.2330
predicted_ERA	2.1013
predicted_H	0.6100
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1670
predicted_WHIP	1.0956

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4850	0.3152	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2330	0.1515	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.1013	2.1013	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.6100	0.7465	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	1.0000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1670	1.1086	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0956	1.0956	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	12

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	2.35
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	27
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_OAK@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	661395
playerID	661395
playerName	Jhoan Duran
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PHI
teamID	21

Chase Shugart (663767) · PITCHER · Reliever · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 10

All-history rows before 20260507: 10

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.880	1.200	0.320	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.900	0.000	0.100	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 10

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	0.000	3.000	0.000	3.000	0.000	0.0000	0.6923	0.0000	0.6923	0.0000	0.6923	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	1.000	9.000	2.000	9.000	1.000	0.8438	1.0312	0.0938	0.8438	0.1875	0.8438	0.0938
season	0.20	10	10.200	1.000	9.000	2.000	9.000	1.000	0.8438	1.0312	0.0938	0.8438	0.1875	0.8438	0.0938

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1030
predicted_ER	0.0520
predicted_ERA	0.4641
predicted_H	0.7760
predicted_HR	0.0520
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.7760
predicted_WHIP	0.8787

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1030	0.0669	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.0520	0.0338	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.4641	0.4641	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.7760	0.8544	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0520	0.0338	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.0000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.7760	0.8544	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.8787	0.8787	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	10
Season rows before report date	10
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	10
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.84
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.2
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_PHI@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	663767
playerID	663767
playerName	Chase Shugart
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PHI
teamID	21

20260507_PIT@ARI

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "confidence": 0.52375, "home_win_probability": 0.47624999999999995, "away_win_probability": 0.52375, "predicted_score_text": "PIT 4 - 3 ARI", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to final winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "predicted_score_text": "PIT 4 - 5 ARI", "confidence": 0.52375, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score", "final_prediction_synced": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "PIT 4 - 5 ARI", "winner": "ARI"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "PIT 4 - 3 ARI", "winner": "PIT"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": -2, "total_run_delta": -2, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"}}

Away Team: PIT

Spencer Horwitz (687462) · BATTER · 1B · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 29

All-history rows before 20260507: 29

System season_avg: 0.2450

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2447

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.103	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.103	0.000	-0.103	0.000
predicted_3B	0.034	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.034	1.000	-0.034	-1.000
predicted_AB	3.241	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.241	4.000	0.759	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.202	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.245	0.250	-0.245	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.621	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.621	0.000	-0.621	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.600	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.793	1.000	-0.793	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.069	0.000	-0.069	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.330	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.365	0.250	-0.365	-0.250
predicted_R	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.310	0.000	-0.310	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.600	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.414	0.000	-0.414	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.358	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.362	0.750	-0.362	-0.750
predicted_SO	0.483	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.483	1.000	0.517	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.103	-
predicted_3B	0.034	-
predicted_AB	3.241	-
predicted_AVG	0.202	-
predicted_BB	0.621	-
predicted_H	0.600	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.330	-
predicted_R	0.310	-
predicted_RBI	0.600	-
predicted_SLG	0.358	-
predicted_SO	0.483	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.130	0.027
predicted_3B	0.096	0.062
predicted_AB	3.428	0.187
predicted_AVG	0.202	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.668	0.047
predicted_H	0.673	0.073
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.046	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.330	0.000
predicted_R	0.197	-0.113
predicted_RBI	0.676	0.076
predicted_SLG	0.358	0.000
predicted_SO	0.339	-0.144

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.43), rates preserved: AVG=0.196 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, BvP AVG=0.400)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	0.000	4.000	1.000	0.1667	0.3182	0.3333	0.1667	0.0000	0.2222	0.2222	0.0556
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	8.000	2.000	6.000	2.000	0.2222	0.3256	0.3889	0.2222	0.0278	0.2222	0.1667	0.0556
season	0.20	29	-	94.000	23.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	12.000	9.000	18.000	14.000	0.2447	0.3652	0.3617	0.2447	0.0213	0.1277	0.1915	0.1489

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1450
predicted_3B	0.1300
predicted_AB	3.5280
predicted_AVG	0.2017
predicted_BB	0.6940
predicted_H	0.7120
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.0490
predicted_OBP	0.3302
predicted_R	0.1360
predicted_RBI	0.7170
predicted_SLG	0.3584
predicted_SO	0.2620

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1030	0.1450	0.1303	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0340	0.1300	0.0964	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2410	3.5280	3.4276	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2020	0.2017	0.2018	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6210	0.6940	0.6684	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6000	0.7120	0.6728	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0490	0.0459	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3300	0.3302	0.3301	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3100	0.1360	0.1969	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6000	0.7170	0.6761	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3580	0.3584	0.3583	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4830	0.2620	0.3393	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.245

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	1
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260506_PIT@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	687462
playerID	687462
playerName	Spencer Horwitz
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	PIT
teamID	22

Brandon Lowe (664040) · BATTER · 2B · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 31

All-history rows before 20260507: 31

System season_avg: 0.2520

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2521

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.258	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.258	0.000	-0.258	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.839	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.839	4.000	0.161	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.273	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.252	0.500	-0.252	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.613	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.613	0.000	0.387	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.950	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.968	2.000	-0.968	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.290	1.000	-0.290	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.420	0.200	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.360	0.500	-0.160	-0.300
predicted_R	0.645	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.645	1.000	-0.645	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.510	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.710	1.000	-0.710	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.617	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.546	1.250	-0.546	-1.250
predicted_SO	0.968	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.968	0.000	0.032	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.258	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.839	-
predicted_AVG	0.273	-
predicted_BB	0.613	-
predicted_H	0.950	-
predicted_HR	0.310	-
predicted_OBP	0.420	-
predicted_R	0.645	-
predicted_RBI	0.510	-
predicted_SLG	0.617	-
predicted_SO	0.968	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.274	0.016
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.634	-0.205
predicted_AVG	0.273	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.812	0.199
predicted_H	0.957	0.007
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.310	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.420	0.000
predicted_R	0.766	0.121
predicted_RBI	0.514	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.617	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.675	-0.293

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.84), rates preserved: AVG=0.249 HR/AB=0.081

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.839

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	5.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	6.000	1.000	0.2941	0.4783	0.7059	0.2941	0.1177	0.1765	0.3529	0.0588
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	9.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	7.000	7.000	7.000	0.2571	0.3810	0.5429	0.2571	0.0571	0.0857	0.2000	0.2000
season	0.20	31	-	119.000	30.000	8.000	9.000	22.000	20.000	19.000	30.000	0.2521	0.3597	0.5462	0.2521	0.0756	0.1849	0.1597	0.2521

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2820
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.5230
predicted_AVG	0.2727
predicted_BB	0.9190
predicted_H	0.9610
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.3100
predicted_OBP	0.4205
predicted_R	0.8310
predicted_RBI	0.5160
predicted_SLG	0.6169
predicted_SO	0.5170

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2580	0.2820	0.2736	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8390	3.5230	3.6336	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2730	0.2727	0.2728	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6130	0.9190	0.8119	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9500	0.9610	0.9571	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3100	0.3100	0.3100	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4200	0.4205	0.4203	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6450	0.8310	0.7659	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5100	0.5160	0.5139	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6170	0.6169	0.6169	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9680	0.5170	0.6748	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.252

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260506_PIT@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	664040
playerID	664040
playerName	Brandon Lowe
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	PIT
teamID	22

Konnor Griffin (804606) · BATTER · SS · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 29

All-history rows before 20260507: 29

System season_avg: 0.2690

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2685

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.172	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.172	0.000	-0.172	0.000
predicted_3B	0.069	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.069	0.000	-0.069	0.000
predicted_AB	3.724	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.724	4.000	0.276	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.374	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.269	0.250	-0.019	0.000
predicted_BB	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.310	0.000	-0.310	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.230	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.069	0.000	-0.069	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.452	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.336	0.250	-0.086	0.000
predicted_R	0.448	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.448	0.000	-0.448	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.470	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.517	0.000	-0.517	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.276	1.000	-0.276	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.607	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.407	0.250	-0.157	0.000
predicted_SO	1.138	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.138	2.000	-0.138	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.172	-
predicted_3B	0.069	-
predicted_AB	3.724	-
predicted_AVG	0.374	-
predicted_BB	0.310	-
predicted_H	1.230	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.452	-
predicted_R	0.448	-
predicted_RBI	0.470	-
predicted_SLG	0.607	-
predicted_SO	1.138	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.327	0.155
predicted_3B	0.115	0.045
predicted_AB	3.637	-0.087
predicted_AVG	0.374	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.439	0.129
predicted_H	1.303	0.073
predicted_HBP	0.013	-
predicted_HR	0.046	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.452	-0.000
predicted_R	0.505	0.057
predicted_RBI	0.498	0.028
predicted_SLG	0.607	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.007	-0.131

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.72), rates preserved: AVG=0.350 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	8.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	0.4444	0.5238	0.7222	0.4444	0.0000	0.1667	0.1667	0.2222
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	12.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	5.000	5.000	10.000	0.3429	0.4250	0.5714	0.3429	0.0286	0.1143	0.1429	0.2857
season	0.20	29	-	108.000	29.000	5.000	2.000	2.000	15.000	13.000	9.000	33.000	0.2685	0.3361	0.4074	0.2685	0.0185	0.1389	0.0833	0.3056

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.4100
predicted_3B	0.1390
predicted_AB	3.5900
predicted_AVG	0.3737
predicted_BB	0.5090
predicted_H	1.3420
predicted_HBP	0.0130
predicted_HR	0.0490
predicted_OBP	0.4517
predicted_R	0.5350
predicted_RBI	0.5130
predicted_SLG	0.6065
predicted_SO	0.9370

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1720	0.4100	0.3267	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0690	0.1390	0.1145	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7240	3.5900	3.6369	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3740	0.3737	0.3738	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3100	0.5090	0.4394	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2300	1.3420	1.3028	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0130	0.0130	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0490	0.0459	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4520	0.4517	0.4518	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4480	0.5350	0.5046	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4700	0.5130	0.4980	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6070	0.6065	0.6067	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1380	0.9370	1.0073	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.269

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260506_PIT@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	804606
playerID	804606
playerName	Konnor Griffin
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	PIT
teamID	22

Ryan O'Hearn (656811) · BATTER · RF · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 34

All-history rows before 20260507: 34

System season_avg: 0.2940

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2937

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.147	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.147	0.000	-0.147	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.706	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.706	3.000	0.294	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.232	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.294	0.000	-0.044	0.250
predicted_BB	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.790	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.088	0.000	-0.088	1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.147	0.000	-0.147	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.310	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.377	0.250	-0.127	0.000
predicted_R	0.588	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.588	0.000	-0.588	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.720	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.706	0.000	-0.706	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.326	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.452	0.000	-0.202	0.250
predicted_SO	0.824	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.824	0.000	-0.824	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.147	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.706	-
predicted_AVG	0.232	-
predicted_BB	0.500	-
predicted_H	0.790	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.310	-
predicted_R	0.588	-
predicted_RBI	0.720	-
predicted_SLG	0.326	-
predicted_SO	0.824	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.153	0.006
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.696	-0.010
predicted_AVG	0.232	0.000
predicted_BB	0.448	-0.052
predicted_H	0.834	0.044
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.062	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.310	0.000
predicted_R	0.654	0.066
predicted_RBI	0.760	0.040
predicted_SLG	0.326	0.000
predicted_SO	0.916	0.092

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.225 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=11.0, BvP AVG=0.455)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	4.000	2.000	5.000	0.2222	0.3000	0.2778	0.2222	0.0000	0.2222	0.1111	0.2778
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	8.000	6.000	4.000	10.000	0.2105	0.2857	0.3158	0.2105	0.0263	0.2105	0.1053	0.2632
season	0.20	34	-	126.000	37.000	5.000	5.000	24.000	20.000	17.000	28.000	0.2937	0.3767	0.4524	0.2937	0.0397	0.1905	0.1349	0.2222

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1560
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.6910
predicted_AVG	0.2324
predicted_BB	0.4200
predicted_H	0.8580
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0630
predicted_OBP	0.3103
predicted_R	0.6900
predicted_RBI	0.7820
predicted_SLG	0.3260
predicted_SO	0.9650

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1470	0.1560	0.1528	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7060	3.6910	3.6963	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2320	0.2324	0.2323	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5000	0.4200	0.4480	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7900	0.8580	0.8342	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0630	0.0619	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3100	0.3103	0.3102	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5880	0.6900	0.6543	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7200	0.7820	0.7603	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3260	0.3260	0.3260	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8240	0.9650	0.9156	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.294

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF-1B
gameID	20260506_PIT@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	656811
playerID	656811
playerName	Ryan O'Hearn
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	PIT
teamID	22

Oneil Cruz (665833) · BATTER · DH · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 34

All-history rows before 20260507: 34

System season_avg: 0.2520

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2517

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.176	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.176	0.000	-0.176	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.324	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	4.324	4.000	0.676	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.209	0.200	0.200	Hitting_AVG	0.252	0.000	-0.052	0.200
predicted_BB	0.324	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.324	0.000	-0.324	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_H	0.840	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.088	0.000	-0.088	1.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.265	0.000	-0.265	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.232	0.200	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.308	0.000	-0.108	0.200
predicted_R	0.735	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.735	0.000	0.265	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.470	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.824	0.000	0.176	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.353	1.000	-0.353	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.304	0.200	0.200	Hitting_SLG	0.476	0.000	-0.276	0.200
predicted_SO	1.588	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.588	1.000	0.412	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.176	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.324	-
predicted_AVG	0.209	-
predicted_BB	0.324	-
predicted_H	0.840	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.232	-
predicted_R	0.735	-
predicted_RBI	0.470	-
predicted_SLG	0.304	-
predicted_SO	1.588	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.166	-0.010
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.468	0.144
predicted_AVG	0.209	0.000
predicted_BB	0.203	-0.121
predicted_H	0.911	0.072
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.086	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.232	0.000
predicted_R	0.608	-0.127
predicted_RBI	0.505	0.035
predicted_SLG	0.304	0.000
predicted_SO	1.559	-0.029

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.47), rates preserved: AVG=0.204 HR/AB=0.019

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 4.324

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	23.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	0.000	7.000	0.2174	0.2174	0.2609	0.2174	0.0000	0.0870	0.0000	0.3044
last_10	0.35	10	-	46.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	6.000	2.000	17.000	0.1739	0.2083	0.2609	0.1739	0.0217	0.1087	0.0435	0.3696
season	0.20	34	-	147.000	37.000	6.000	9.000	28.000	25.000	11.000	54.000	0.2517	0.3082	0.4762	0.2517	0.0612	0.1905	0.0748	0.3674

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1610
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.5450
predicted_AVG	0.2090
predicted_BB	0.1370
predicted_H	0.9500
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0900
predicted_OBP	0.2324
predicted_R	0.5400
predicted_RBI	0.5240
predicted_SLG	0.3040
predicted_SO	1.5440

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1760	0.1610	0.1663	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.3240	4.5450	4.4676	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2090	0.2090	0.2090	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3240	0.1370	0.2025	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8400	0.9500	0.9115	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0900	0.0865	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2320	0.2324	0.2323	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7350	0.5400	0.6082	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4700	0.5240	0.5051	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3040	0.3040	0.3040	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.5880	1.5440	1.5594	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.252

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260506_PIT@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	665833
playerID	665833
playerName	Oneil Cruz
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	PIT
teamID	22

Joey Bart (663698) · BATTER · C · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 14

All-history rows before 20260507: 14

System season_avg: 0.2050

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2045

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.071	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.143	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.143	3.000	0.857	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.246	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.205	0.000	0.045	0.250
predicted_BB	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.630	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.643	0.000	0.357	1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.272	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.255	0.000	-0.005	0.250
predicted_R	0.357	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.357	0.000	0.643	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.050	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.143	0.000	0.857	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.308	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.295	0.000	-0.045	0.250
predicted_SO	1.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.143	1.000	-1.143	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.071	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.143	-
predicted_AVG	0.246	-
predicted_BB	0.143	-
predicted_H	0.630	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.272	-
predicted_R	0.357	-
predicted_RBI	0.050	-
predicted_SLG	0.308	-
predicted_SO	1.143	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.055	-0.016
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.056	-0.087
predicted_AVG	0.246	0.000
predicted_BB	0.089	-0.054
predicted_H	0.702	0.072
predicted_HBP	0.047	-
predicted_HR	0.044	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.272	0.000
predicted_R	0.318	-0.039
predicted_RBI	0.057	0.006
predicted_SLG	0.308	0.000
predicted_SO	1.029	-0.114

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.14), rates preserved: AVG=0.223 HR/AB=0.014

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=11.0, BvP AVG=0.273)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	0.2857	0.2857	0.2857	0.2857	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.2857
last_10	0.35	10	-	32.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	11.000	0.2188	0.2647	0.3438	0.2188	0.0312	0.0312	0.0312	0.3438
season	0.20	14	-	44.000	9.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	2.000	16.000	0.2045	0.2553	0.2955	0.2046	0.0227	0.0454	0.0454	0.3636

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0470
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.0090
predicted_AVG	0.2460
predicted_BB	0.0600
predicted_H	0.7400
predicted_HBP	0.0470
predicted_HR	0.0470
predicted_OBP	0.2723
predicted_R	0.2970
predicted_RBI	0.0600
predicted_SLG	0.3080
predicted_SO	0.9680

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0710	0.0470	0.0554	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1430	3.0090	3.0559	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2460	0.2460	0.2460	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1430	0.0600	0.0890	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6300	0.7400	0.7015	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0470	0.0470	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0470	0.0445	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2720	0.2723	0.2722	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3570	0.2970	0.3180	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0500	0.0600	0.0565	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3080	0.3080	0.3080	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1430	0.9680	1.0292	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.205

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260505_PIT@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	663698
playerID	663698
playerName	Joey Bart
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	PIT
teamID	22

Jared Triolo (669707) · BATTER · 3B · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 7

All-history rows before 20260507: 7

System season_avg: 0.2310

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2308

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.286	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.286	1.000	0.714	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.714	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.714	3.000	0.286	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.239	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.231	0.333	0.269	0.167
predicted_BB	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.770	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.857	1.000	1.143	1.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.336	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.310	0.333	0.190	0.167
predicted_R	0.286	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.286	0.000	0.714	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.310	0.750	0.750	Hitting_SLG	0.308	0.667	0.442	0.083
predicted_SO	0.714	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.714	0.000	0.286	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.286	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.714	-
predicted_AVG	0.239	-
predicted_BB	0.286	-
predicted_H	0.770	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.336	-
predicted_R	0.286	-
predicted_RBI	0.160	-
predicted_SLG	0.310	-
predicted_SO	0.714	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.259	-0.027
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.564	-0.150
predicted_AVG	0.239	0.000
predicted_BB	0.323	0.037
predicted_H	0.812	0.042
predicted_HBP	0.172	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.336	0.000
predicted_R	0.259	-0.027
predicted_RBI	0.168	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.310	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.744	0.030

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.219 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, BvP AVG=0.400)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	0.2500	0.3684	0.3125	0.2500	0.0625	0.1250	0.2500
last_10	0.35	7	-	26.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	0.2308	0.3103	0.3077	0.2308	0.0385	0.0769	0.1923
season	0.20	7	-	26.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	0.2308	0.3103	0.3077	0.2308	0.0385	0.0769	0.1923

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2450
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.4830
predicted_AVG	0.2394
predicted_BB	0.3430
predicted_H	0.8340
predicted_HBP	0.1720
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.3364
predicted_R	0.2450
predicted_RBI	0.1720
predicted_SLG	0.3099
predicted_SO	0.7600

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2860	0.2450	0.2593	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7140	3.4830	3.5639	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2390	0.2394	0.2393	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2860	0.3430	0.3231	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7700	0.8340	0.8116	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1720	0.1720	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3360	0.3364	0.3363	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2860	0.2450	0.2593	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1600	0.1720	0.1678	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3100	0.3099	0.3099	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7140	0.7600	0.7439	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.231

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260505_PIT@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	669707
playerID	669707
playerName	Jared Triolo
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	PIT
teamID	22

Jake Mangum (663968) · BATTER · CF · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 16

All-history rows before 20260507: 16

System season_avg: 0.2660

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2656

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.125	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.125	0.000	0.875	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	3.000	0.000	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.267	0.750	0.750	Hitting_AVG	0.266	0.000	0.484	0.750
predicted_BB	0.312	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.312	0.000	-0.312	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.870	3.000	3.000	Hitting_H	1.062	0.000	1.938	3.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.314	0.750	0.750	Hitting_OBP	0.319	0.000	0.431	0.750
predicted_R	0.562	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.562	0.000	0.438	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.130	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	0.062	0.000	1.938	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.282	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SLG	0.297	0.000	0.703	1.000
predicted_SO	1.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.267	-
predicted_BB	0.312	-
predicted_H	0.870	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.314	-
predicted_R	0.562	-
predicted_RBI	0.130	-
predicted_SLG	0.282	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.080	-0.045
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.802	-0.198
predicted_AVG	0.267	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.275	-0.037
predicted_H	0.945	0.075
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.314	-0.000
predicted_R	0.457	-0.105
predicted_RBI	0.138	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.282	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.131	0.131

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.236 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	0.2353	0.2778	0.2353	0.2353	0.0588	0.0588	0.4118
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	12.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	3.000	10.000	0.3077	0.3571	0.3333	0.3077	0.0256	0.0769	0.2564
season	0.20	16	-	64.000	17.000	2.000	1.000	9.000	5.000	16.000	0.2656	0.3188	0.2969	0.2656	0.0156	0.0781	0.2500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0560
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.6950
predicted_AVG	0.2667
predicted_BB	0.2550
predicted_H	0.9850
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.3138
predicted_R	0.4010
predicted_RBI	0.1430
predicted_SLG	0.2819
predicted_SO	1.2010

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1250	0.0560	0.0801	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0000	3.6950	3.8017	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2670	0.2667	0.2668	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3120	0.2550	0.2750	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8700	0.9850	0.9447	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3140	0.3138	0.3139	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5620	0.4010	0.4574	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1300	0.1430	0.1384	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2820	0.2819	0.2819	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.2010	1.1307	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	3
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.266

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	1
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260505_PIT@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	663968
playerID	663968
playerName	Jake Mangum
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	PIT
teamID	22

Bryan Reynolds (668804) · BATTER · LF · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 36

All-history rows before 20260507: 36

System season_avg: 0.2640

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2636

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.139	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.139	0.000	-0.139	0.000
predicted_3B	0.056	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_AB	3.583	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.583	4.000	0.417	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.315	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.264	0.500	-0.014	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.833	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.833	0.000	-0.833	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.030	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.944	2.000	0.056	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.466	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.407	0.500	-0.157	-0.250
predicted_R	0.722	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.722	0.000	-0.722	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.540	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.611	0.000	-0.611	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.056	1.000	-0.056	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.588	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.426	0.500	-0.176	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.194	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.194	1.000	-0.194	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.139	-
predicted_3B	0.056	-
predicted_AB	3.583	-
predicted_AVG	0.315	-
predicted_BB	0.833	-
predicted_H	1.030	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.466	-
predicted_R	0.722	-
predicted_RBI	0.540	-
predicted_SLG	0.588	-
predicted_SO	1.194	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.194	0.055
predicted_3B	0.109	0.053
predicted_AB	3.488	-0.095
predicted_AVG	0.315	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.921	0.088
predicted_H	1.063	0.033
predicted_HBP	0.011	-
predicted_HR	0.145	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.466	-0.000
predicted_R	0.822	0.100
predicted_RBI	0.557	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.588	0.000
predicted_SO	1.175	-0.019

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.58), rates preserved: AVG=0.297 HR/AB=0.041

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=13.0, BvP AVG=0.077)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	5.000	6.000	0.3529	0.5000	0.7059	0.3529	0.0588	0.1765	0.2941	0.3529
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	10.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	8.000	10.000	11.000	0.2941	0.4545	0.5294	0.2941	0.0294	0.1471	0.2941	0.3235
season	0.20	36	-	129.000	34.000	5.000	2.000	4.000	22.000	26.000	30.000	43.000	0.2636	0.4074	0.4264	0.2636	0.0310	0.1705	0.2326	0.3333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2240
predicted_3B	0.1370
predicted_AB	3.4370
predicted_AVG	0.3145
predicted_BB	0.9680
predicted_H	1.0810
predicted_HBP	0.0110
predicted_HR	0.1480
predicted_OBP	0.4656
predicted_R	0.8760
predicted_RBI	0.5670
predicted_SLG	0.5882
predicted_SO	1.1640

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1390	0.2240	0.1943	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0560	0.1370	0.1086	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5830	3.4370	3.4881	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3150	0.3145	0.3147	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.8330	0.9680	0.9207	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0300	1.0810	1.0632	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0110	0.0110	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1480	0.1452	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4660	0.4656	0.4657	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7220	0.8760	0.8221	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5400	0.5670	0.5575	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5880	0.5882	0.5881	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1940	1.1640	1.1745	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.264

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260506_PIT@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	668804
playerID	668804
playerName	Bryan Reynolds
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	PIT
teamID	22

Mitch Keller (656605) · PITCHER · Starter · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 7

All-history rows before 20260507: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.857	1.000	0.143	1.000
predicted_IP	3.200	3.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.857	7.000	-2.657	-3.800
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_SO	4.429	6.000	-1.429	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 3.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	29.000	11.000	22.000	8.000	24.000	1.000	3.4138	1.0345	0.3793	0.7586	0.2759	0.8276	0.0345
last_10	0.35	7	41.000	13.000	31.000	12.000	31.000	1.000	2.8537	1.0488	0.3171	0.7561	0.2927	0.7561	0.0244
season	0.20	7	41.000	13.000	31.000	12.000	31.000	1.000	2.8537	1.0488	0.3171	0.7561	0.2927	0.7561	0.0244

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.6680
predicted_ER	2.0190
predicted_ERA	3.1057
predicted_H	4.4300
predicted_HR	0.1690
predicted_IP	6.0000
predicted_SO	4.6110
predicted_WHIP	1.0424

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	1.6680	1.4342	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.0190	2.0124	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.1057	3.1057	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	4.4300	3.9295	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1690	0.1099	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	3.2000	6.0000	5.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	4.6110	4.0472	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0424	1.0424	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	3.2
H	3
R	2
ER	2
BB	1
SO	3
HR	0
BF	21
Pitches	80

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	26
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	2.85
Pitching_Flyouts	4
Pitching_Groundouts	9
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	7.0
Pitching_Pitches	104
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	6
Pitching_Strikes	71
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260501_CIN@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	656605
playerID	656605
playerName	Mitch Keller
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	PIT
teamID	22

Dennis Santana (642701) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 16

All-history rows before 20260507: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.438	2.000	0.562	-1.000
predicted_IP	2.100	2.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.950	1.000	1.150	1.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.625	0.000	-0.625	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 2.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	6.000	8.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	11.5714	2.3571	1.2857	1.7143	0.6429	0.6429	0.4286
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	7.000	11.000	6.000	6.000	2.000	6.5172	1.7586	0.7241	1.1379	0.6207	0.6207	0.2069
season	0.20	16	15.200	7.000	12.000	8.000	10.000	2.000	4.0213	1.2766	0.4468	0.7660	0.5106	0.6383	0.1277

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6090
predicted_ER	0.9210
predicted_ERA	8.2924
predicted_H	1.3230
predicted_HR	0.2910
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.6340
predicted_WHIP	1.9315

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.6090	0.3958	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.9210	0.9486	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	8.2924	8.2924	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	1.3230	1.5599	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.2910	0.5392	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	2.1000	1.0000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.6340	0.4121	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.9315	1.9315	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.1
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	1
BF	5
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	4.02
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_PIT@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	642701
playerID	642701
playerName	Dennis Santana
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PIT
teamID	22

Gregory Soto (642397) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 18

All-history rows before 20260507: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.167	0.000	-0.167
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.961	1.000	0.039
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.333	1.000	-0.333

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	0.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.000	0.0000	0.3750	0.0000	0.1875	0.1875	0.9375	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	2.000	4.000	2.000	11.000	0.000	1.8621	0.6207	0.2069	0.4138	0.2069	1.1379	0.0000
season	0.20	18	18.000	3.000	6.000	7.000	24.000	1.000	1.5000	0.7222	0.1667	0.3333	0.3889	1.3333	0.0556

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2350
predicted_ER	0.1060
predicted_ERA	0.9517
predicted_H	0.2960
predicted_HR	0.0110
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0870
predicted_WHIP	0.5304

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2350	0.1527	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1060	0.0689	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.9517	0.9517	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.2960	0.5424	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0110	0.0072	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0870	1.0566	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.5304	0.5304	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.50
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_PIT@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	642397
playerID	642397
playerName	Gregory Soto
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PIT
teamID	22

Isaac Mattson (676755) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 17

All-history rows before 20260507: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.412	5.000	-0.412	-5.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.871	0.200	0.129	0.800
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.706	0.000	-0.706	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	5.000	3.000	3.000	3.000	11.2500	1.5000	1.2500	0.7500	0.7500	0.7500
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	5.000	7.000	5.000	5.000	4.5000	1.2000	0.5000	0.7000	0.5000	0.5000
season	0.20	17	16.200	7.000	15.000	9.000	12.000	3.7800	1.4400	0.4200	0.9000	0.5400	0.7200

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5270
predicted_ER	0.6980
predicted_ERA	7.3935
predicted_H	0.6480
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.5580
predicted_WHIP	1.3830

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5270	0.3426	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.6980	0.4537	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	7.3935	7.3935	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6480	0.4212	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.5580	0.3627	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3830	1.3830	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	12

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	5
Pitching_ERA	3.78
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	31
Pitching_R	5
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	17
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260430_STL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	676755
playerID	676755
playerName	Isaac Mattson
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PIT
teamID	22

Mason Montgomery (682254) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 14

All-history rows before 20260507: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.357	0.000	-0.357	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.836	1.000	0.164	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.571	0.000	-0.571	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	0.000	0.0000	0.6000	0.0000	0.2000	0.4000	1.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	1.000	7.000	3.000	15.000	0.000	0.9310	1.0345	0.1035	0.7241	0.3103	1.5517	0.0000
season	0.20	14	13.100	5.000	11.000	7.000	22.000	1.000	3.3750	1.3500	0.3750	0.8250	0.5250	1.6500	0.0750

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3940
predicted_ER	0.1110
predicted_ERA	1.0009
predicted_H	0.5080
predicted_HR	0.0150
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.3230
predicted_WHIP	0.9021

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3940	0.2561	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1110	0.0722	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.0009	1.0009	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.5080	0.3302	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0150	0.0097	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.3230	1.2100	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9021	0.9021	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.38
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	5
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260430_STL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	682254
playerID	682254
playerName	Mason Montgomery
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PIT
teamID	22

Home Team: ARI

James McCann (543510) · BATTER · C · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 10

All-history rows before 20260507: 10

System season_avg: 0.2410

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2414

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.222	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.900	0.000	0.100	3.000
predicted_AVG	0.283	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.241	-	-0.241	-
predicted_BB	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.670	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.700	0.000	-0.700	0.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.297	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.267	-	-0.267	-
predicted_R	0.333	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.300	0.000	0.700	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.210	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.200	0.000	0.800	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.346	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.310	-	-0.310	-
predicted_SO	1.222	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.100	0.000	-0.100	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.222	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.222	-
predicted_AVG	0.283	-
predicted_BB	0.111	-
predicted_H	0.670	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.297	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.210	-
predicted_SLG	0.346	-
predicted_SO	1.222	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.216	-0.006
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.333	0.111
predicted_AVG	0.283	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.080	-0.031
predicted_H	0.858	0.188
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.297	-0.000
predicted_R	0.352	0.019
predicted_RBI	0.267	0.057
predicted_SLG	0.346	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.273	0.051

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.33), rates preserved: AVG=0.257 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, BvP AVG=0.400)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	1.000	1.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	0.000	7.000	0.3333	0.3333	0.3889	0.3333	0.1111	0.0000	0.3889
last_10	0.35	9	-	29.000	7.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	11.000	0.2414	0.2667	0.3103	0.2414	0.0690	0.0345	0.3793
season	0.20	9	-	29.000	7.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	11.000	0.2414	0.2667	0.3103	0.2414	0.0690	0.0345	0.3793

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2130
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.3920
predicted_AVG	0.2828
predicted_BB	0.0640
predicted_H	0.9590
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.2967
predicted_R	0.3630
predicted_RBI	0.2980
predicted_SLG	0.3457
predicted_SO	1.3010

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2220	0.2130	0.2161	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2220	3.3920	3.3325	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2830	0.2828	0.2829	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1110	0.0640	0.0804	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6700	0.9590	0.8579	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2970	0.2967	0.2968	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.3630	0.3525	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2100	0.2980	0.2672	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3460	0.3457	0.3458	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2220	1.3010	1.2733	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	10
Season rows before report date	10
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	1
HBP	0
season_avg	0.241

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	22.50
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260421_CHW@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	543510
playerID	543510
playerName	James McCann
pos	C
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ARI
teamID	1

Corbin Carroll (682998) · BATTER · RF · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 33

All-history rows before 20260507: 33

System season_avg: 0.2560

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2564

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.212	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.212	0.000	-0.212	0.000
predicted_3B	0.121	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.121	0.000	-0.121	0.000
predicted_AB	3.545	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.545	4.000	0.455	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.133	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.256	0.000	-0.006	0.250
predicted_BB	0.545	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.545	0.000	-0.545	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.430	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.909	0.000	0.091	1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.121	0.000	-0.121	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.224	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.355	0.000	-0.105	0.250
predicted_R	0.636	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.636	0.000	-0.636	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.576	0.000	-0.576	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.121	0.000	-0.121	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.218	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.487	0.000	-0.237	0.250
predicted_SO	1.121	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.121	0.000	-1.121	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.212	-
predicted_3B	0.121	-
predicted_AB	3.545	-
predicted_AVG	0.133	-
predicted_BB	0.545	-
predicted_H	0.430	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.224	-
predicted_R	0.636	-
predicted_RBI	0.240	-
predicted_SLG	0.218	-
predicted_SO	1.121	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.126	-0.086
predicted_3B	0.059	-0.062
predicted_AB	3.632	0.087
predicted_AVG	0.133	0.000
predicted_BB	0.471	-0.074
predicted_H	0.469	0.039
predicted_HBP	0.042	-
predicted_HR	0.057	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.224	0.000
predicted_R	0.458	-0.178
predicted_RBI	0.265	0.025
predicted_SLG	0.218	0.000
predicted_SO	1.106	-0.015

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.63), rates preserved: AVG=0.129 HR/AB=0.016

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, BvP AVG=0.111)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	0.0526	0.1364	0.0526	0.0526	0.0000	0.0526	0.1053	0.2632
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	12.000	0.1667	0.2619	0.2778	0.1667	0.0278	0.0556	0.1111	0.3333
season	0.20	33	-	117.000	30.000	7.000	4.000	4.000	19.000	21.000	18.000	37.000	0.2564	0.3551	0.4872	0.2564	0.0342	0.1624	0.1538	0.3162

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0800
predicted_3B	0.0250
predicted_AB	3.6790
predicted_AVG	0.1333
predicted_BB	0.4310
predicted_H	0.4900
predicted_HBP	0.0420
predicted_HR	0.0610
predicted_OBP	0.2241
predicted_R	0.3620
predicted_RBI	0.2780
predicted_SLG	0.2183
predicted_SO	1.0980

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2120	0.0800	0.1262	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.1210	0.0250	0.0586	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5450	3.6790	3.6321	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1330	0.1333	0.1332	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5450	0.4310	0.4709	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4300	0.4900	0.4690	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0420	0.0420	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0610	0.0571	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2240	0.2241	0.2241	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6360	0.3620	0.4579	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2400	0.2780	0.2647	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2180	0.2183	0.2182	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1210	1.0980	1.1061	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.256

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260506_PIT@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	682998
playerID	682998
playerName	Corbin Carroll
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	ARI
teamID	1

Ketel Marte (606466) · BATTER · 2B · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 32

All-history rows before 20260507: 32

System season_avg: 0.2160

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2164

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.094	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.094	0.000	0.906	1.000
predicted_3B	0.031	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.031	0.000	-0.031	0.000
predicted_AB	4.188	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	4.188	4.000	-1.188	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.153	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.216	0.000	0.117	0.333
predicted_BB	0.281	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.281	0.000	0.719	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.580	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.906	0.000	0.094	1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.156	0.000	-0.156	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.194	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.266	0.000	0.234	0.500
predicted_R	0.594	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.594	0.000	0.406	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.406	0.000	-0.406	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.267	0.667	0.667	Hitting_SLG	0.366	0.000	0.301	0.667
predicted_SO	0.875	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.875	0.000	-0.875	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.094	-
predicted_3B	0.031	-
predicted_AB	4.188	-
predicted_AVG	0.153	-
predicted_BB	0.281	-
predicted_H	0.580	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.194	-
predicted_R	0.594	-
predicted_RBI	0.370	-
predicted_SLG	0.267	-
predicted_SO	0.875	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.045	-0.049
predicted_3B	0.096	0.065
predicted_AB	4.194	0.006
predicted_AVG	0.153	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.239	-0.042
predicted_H	0.620	0.040
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.064	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.194	0.000
predicted_R	0.493	-0.101
predicted_RBI	0.390	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.267	0.000
predicted_SO	1.034	0.159

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.19), rates preserved: AVG=0.148 HR/AB=0.015

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=11.0, BvP AVG=0.364)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 4.188

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	7.000	0.0952	0.1364	0.1905	0.0952	0.0000	0.0952	0.0476	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	42.000	8.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	2.000	9.000	0.1905	0.2273	0.3095	0.1905	0.0238	0.0952	0.0476	0.2143
season	0.20	32	-	134.000	29.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	13.000	19.000	9.000	28.000	0.2164	0.2657	0.3657	0.2164	0.0373	0.0970	0.0672	0.2090

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0190
predicted_3B	0.1310
predicted_AB	4.1980
predicted_AVG	0.1528
predicted_BB	0.2160
predicted_H	0.6410
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0660
predicted_OBP	0.1941
predicted_R	0.4390
predicted_RBI	0.4010
predicted_SLG	0.2672
predicted_SO	1.1200

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0940	0.0190	0.0452	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0310	0.1310	0.0960	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1880	4.1980	4.1945	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1530	0.1528	0.1529	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2810	0.2160	0.2388	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5800	0.6410	0.6197	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0660	0.0639	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1940	0.1941	0.1941	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5940	0.4390	0.4932	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3700	0.4010	0.3902	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2670	0.2672	0.2671	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8750	1.1200	1.0343	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.216

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260506_PIT@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	606466
playerID	606466
playerName	Ketel Marte
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	ARI
teamID	1

Adrian Del Castillo (680728) · BATTER · DH · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 17

All-history rows before 20260507: 17

System season_avg: 0.1940

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1940

Diff (system - data): -0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.176	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.176	0.000	-0.176	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.941	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.941	3.000	0.059	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.162	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.194	0.000	-0.194	0.000
predicted_BB	0.176	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.176	0.000	-0.176	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.580	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.765	0.000	-0.765	0.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.188	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.225	0.000	-0.225	0.000
predicted_R	0.353	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.353	0.000	-0.353	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.540	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.706	0.000	-0.706	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.302	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.328	0.000	-0.328	0.000
predicted_SO	1.294	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.294	1.000	-1.294	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.176	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.941	-
predicted_AVG	0.162	-
predicted_BB	0.176	-
predicted_H	0.580	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.188	-
predicted_R	0.353	-
predicted_RBI	0.540	-
predicted_SLG	0.302	-
predicted_SO	1.294	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.131	-0.045
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.926	-0.015
predicted_AVG	0.162	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.154	-0.021
predicted_H	0.615	0.035
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.145	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.188	-0.000
predicted_R	0.297	-0.056
predicted_RBI	0.569	0.029
predicted_SLG	0.302	0.000
predicted_SO	1.464	0.170

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.94), rates preserved: AVG=0.156 HR/AB=0.037

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 3.941

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	9.000	0.1500	0.1500	0.3000	0.1500	0.0500	0.1500	0.0000	0.4500
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	3.000	14.000	0.1579	0.2143	0.2895	0.1579	0.0263	0.1316	0.0790	0.3684
season	0.20	17	-	67.000	13.000	3.000	2.000	12.000	6.000	3.000	22.000	0.1940	0.2254	0.3284	0.1940	0.0299	0.1791	0.0448	0.3284

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1070
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.9180
predicted_AVG	0.1616
predicted_BB	0.1430
predicted_H	0.6330
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1480
predicted_OBP	0.1876
predicted_R	0.2670
predicted_RBI	0.5850
predicted_SLG	0.3020
predicted_SO	1.5560

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1760	0.1070	0.1311	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9410	3.9180	3.9261	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1620	0.1616	0.1617	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1760	0.1430	0.1545	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5800	0.6330	0.6145	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1480	0.1452	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1880	0.1876	0.1877	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3530	0.2670	0.2971	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5400	0.5850	0.5693	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3020	0.3020	0.3020	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2940	1.5560	1.4643	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.194

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260506_PIT@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	680728
playerID	680728
playerName	Adrian Del Castillo
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	ARI
teamID	1

Ildemaro Vargas (545121) · BATTER · 1B · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 26

All-history rows before 20260507: 26

System season_avg: 0.3490

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3491

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.231	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.231	0.000	0.769	1.000
predicted_3B	0.038	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.038	0.000	-0.038	0.000
predicted_AB	4.077	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.077	3.000	-0.077	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.336	0.750	0.750	Hitting_AVG	0.349	0.000	0.401	0.750
predicted_BB	0.115	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.115	0.000	-0.115	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.250	3.000	3.000	Hitting_H	1.423	0.000	1.577	3.000
predicted_HR	0.070	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.231	0.000	0.769	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.365	0.750	0.750	Hitting_OBP	0.367	0.000	0.383	0.750
predicted_R	0.731	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.731	0.000	0.269	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.500	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	0.731	0.000	1.269	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.469	1.750	1.750	Hitting_SLG	0.594	0.000	1.156	1.750
predicted_SO	0.385	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.385	0.000	-0.385	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.231	-
predicted_3B	0.038	-
predicted_AB	4.077	-
predicted_AVG	0.336	-
predicted_BB	0.115	-
predicted_H	1.250	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.365	-
predicted_R	0.731	-
predicted_RBI	0.500	-
predicted_SLG	0.469	-
predicted_SO	0.385	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.215	-0.016
predicted_3B	0.041	0.003
predicted_AB	4.037	-0.040
predicted_AVG	0.336	0.000
predicted_BB	0.159	0.044
predicted_H	1.314	0.064
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.077	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.365	0.000
predicted_R	0.464	-0.267
predicted_RBI	0.523	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.469	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.230	-0.155

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.08), rates preserved: AVG=0.322 HR/AB=0.019

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 26

Reference playing time: 4.077

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.3000	0.3333	0.3500	0.3000	0.0000	0.1000	0.0500	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	15.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	5.000	2.000	2.000	0.3750	0.4048	0.5500	0.3750	0.0250	0.1500	0.0500	0.0500
season	0.20	26	-	106.000	37.000	6.000	1.000	6.000	19.000	19.000	3.000	10.000	0.3491	0.3670	0.5943	0.3491	0.0566	0.1792	0.0283	0.0943

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2060
predicted_3B	0.0430
predicted_AB	4.0150
predicted_AVG	0.3361
predicted_BB	0.1830
predicted_H	1.3490
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0810
predicted_OBP	0.3651
predicted_R	0.3200
predicted_RBI	0.5350
predicted_SLG	0.4689
predicted_SO	0.1460

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2310	0.2060	0.2147	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0380	0.0430	0.0412	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0770	4.0150	4.0367	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3360	0.3361	0.3361	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1150	0.1830	0.1592	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2500	1.3490	1.3144	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0810	0.0771	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3650	0.3651	0.3651	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7310	0.3200	0.4638	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5000	0.5350	0.5228	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4690	0.4689	0.4689	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3850	0.1460	0.2296	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	26
Season rows before report date	26
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	26
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	3
2B	1
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.349

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260506_PIT@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	545121
playerID	545121
playerName	Ildemaro Vargas
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	ARI
teamID	1

Geraldo Perdomo (672695) · BATTER · SS · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 32

All-history rows before 20260507: 32

System season_avg: 0.2390

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2385

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.156	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.156	0.000	-0.156	0.000
predicted_3B	0.094	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.094	0.000	-0.094	0.000
predicted_AB	3.406	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.406	3.000	0.594	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.248	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.239	0.000	-0.239	0.000
predicted_BB	0.625	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.625	1.000	-0.625	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.094	0.000	-0.094	0.000
predicted_H	0.800	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.812	0.000	-0.812	0.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.344	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.351	0.250	-0.351	-0.250
predicted_R	0.406	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.406	0.000	-0.406	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.620	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.344	0.000	-0.344	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.188	0.000	-0.188	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.479	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.394	0.000	-0.394	0.000
predicted_SO	0.531	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.531	1.000	1.469	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.156	-
predicted_3B	0.094	-
predicted_AB	3.406	-
predicted_AVG	0.248	-
predicted_BB	0.625	-
predicted_H	0.800	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.344	-
predicted_R	0.406	-
predicted_RBI	0.620	-
predicted_SLG	0.479	-
predicted_SO	0.531	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.233	0.077
predicted_3B	0.093	-0.001
predicted_AB	3.624	0.218
predicted_AVG	0.248	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.583	-0.042
predicted_H	0.882	0.082
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.129	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.344	-0.000
predicted_R	0.381	-0.025
predicted_RBI	0.682	0.062
predicted_SLG	0.479	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.615	0.084

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.62), rates preserved: AVG=0.244 HR/AB=0.036

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=11.0, BvP AVG=0.091)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	0.2500	0.3182	0.5000	0.2500	0.0500	0.2500	0.1000	0.1500
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	9.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	6.000	3.000	7.000	8.000	0.2500	0.3721	0.5000	0.2500	0.0278	0.1667	0.1944	0.2222
season	0.20	32	-	109.000	26.000	5.000	3.000	2.000	11.000	13.000	20.000	17.000	0.2385	0.3511	0.3945	0.2385	0.0184	0.1009	0.1835	0.1560

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2750
predicted_3B	0.0930
predicted_AB	3.7410
predicted_AVG	0.2477
predicted_BB	0.5600
predicted_H	0.9270
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1340
predicted_OBP	0.3436
predicted_R	0.3670
predicted_RBI	0.7150
predicted_SLG	0.4789
predicted_SO	0.6600

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1560	0.2750	0.2334	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0940	0.0930	0.0934	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4060	3.7410	3.6238	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2480	0.2477	0.2478	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6250	0.5600	0.5828	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8000	0.9270	0.8825	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1340	0.1291	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3440	0.3436	0.3437	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4060	0.3670	0.3807	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6200	0.7150	0.6817	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4790	0.4789	0.4789	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5310	0.6600	0.6149	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.239

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260506_PIT@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	672695
playerID	672695
playerName	Geraldo Perdomo
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	ARI
teamID	1

Alek Thomas (677950) · BATTER · CF · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 27

All-history rows before 20260507: 27

System season_avg: 0.1850

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1848

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.407	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.407	2.000	0.593	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.148	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.185	0.000	-0.185	0.000
predicted_BB	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.410	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.630	0.000	-0.630	0.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.074	0.000	-0.074	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.201	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.227	0.000	-0.227	0.000
predicted_R	0.444	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.444	0.000	-0.444	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.370	0.000	-0.370	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.148	0.000	-0.148	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.303	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.348	0.000	-0.348	0.000
predicted_SO	0.852	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.852	1.000	0.148	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.333	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.407	-
predicted_AVG	0.148	-
predicted_BB	0.111	-
predicted_H	0.410	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.201	-
predicted_R	0.444	-
predicted_RBI	0.150	-
predicted_SLG	0.303	-
predicted_SO	0.852	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.263	-0.070
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.159	-0.248
predicted_AVG	0.148	0.000
predicted_BB	0.074	-0.037
predicted_H	0.435	0.025
predicted_HBP	0.145	-
predicted_HR	0.081	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.201	-0.000
predicted_R	0.467	0.023
predicted_RBI	0.162	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.303	0.000
predicted_SO	1.017	0.165

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.41), rates preserved: AVG=0.128 HR/AB=0.024

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, BvP AVG=0.250)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	7.000	0.0714	0.1333	0.1429	0.0714	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.5000
last_10	0.35	10	-	31.000	7.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	6.000	1.000	8.000	0.2258	0.2727	0.4839	0.2258	0.0645	0.0968	0.0323	0.2581
season	0.20	27	-	92.000	17.000	9.000	2.000	10.000	12.000	3.000	23.000	0.1848	0.2268	0.3478	0.1848	0.0217	0.1087	0.0326	0.2500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2250
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.0260
predicted_AVG	0.1481
predicted_BB	0.0540
predicted_H	0.4480
predicted_HBP	0.1450
predicted_HR	0.0820
predicted_OBP	0.2008
predicted_R	0.4790
predicted_RBI	0.1680
predicted_SLG	0.3032
predicted_SO	1.1060

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3330	0.2250	0.2628	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4070	3.0260	3.1593	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1480	0.1481	0.1481	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1110	0.0540	0.0739	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4100	0.4480	0.4347	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1450	0.1450	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0820	0.0813	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2010	0.2008	0.2009	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4440	0.4790	0.4667	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1500	0.1680	0.1617	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3030	0.3032	0.3031	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8520	1.1060	1.0171	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.185

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260506_PIT@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	677950
playerID	677950
playerName	Alek Thomas
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	ARI
teamID	1

Jose Fernandez (699912) · BATTER · 3B · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 24

All-history rows before 20260507: 24

System season_avg: 0.3150

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3146

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.708	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.708	3.000	-0.708	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.229	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.315	0.000	-0.315	0.000
predicted_BB	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.042	0.000	-0.042	0.000
predicted_H	0.750	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.167	0.000	-1.167	0.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.329	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.351	0.250	-0.101	0.000
predicted_R	0.792	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.792	0.000	-0.792	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.042	0.000	-0.042	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.296	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.449	0.000	-0.449	0.000
predicted_SO	0.833	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.833	1.000	-0.833	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.708	-
predicted_AVG	0.229	-
predicted_BB	0.167	-
predicted_H	0.750	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.329	-
predicted_R	0.792	-
predicted_RBI	0.190	-
predicted_SLG	0.296	-
predicted_SO	0.833	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.081	-0.044
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.512	-0.196
predicted_AVG	0.229	0.000
predicted_BB	0.292	0.125
predicted_H	0.770	0.020
predicted_HBP	0.138	-
predicted_HR	0.055	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.329	-0.000
predicted_R	0.696	-0.096
predicted_RBI	0.193	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.296	0.000
predicted_SO	0.711	-0.122

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.208 HR/AB=0.015

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 24

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	0.1250	0.2632	0.1250	0.1250	0.0000	0.0000	0.1250	0.1875
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	11.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	9.000	4.000	6.000	0.3143	0.4000	0.4286	0.3143	0.0286	0.0857	0.1143	0.1714
season	0.20	24	-	89.000	28.000	3.000	3.000	12.000	19.000	4.000	20.000	0.3146	0.3511	0.4494	0.3146	0.0337	0.1348	0.0449	0.2247

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0570
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.4070
predicted_AVG	0.2292
predicted_BB	0.3590
predicted_H	0.7810
predicted_HBP	0.1380
predicted_HR	0.0570
predicted_OBP	0.3287
predicted_R	0.6440
predicted_RBI	0.1940
predicted_SLG	0.2961
predicted_SO	0.6450

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1250	0.0570	0.0808	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7080	3.4070	3.5124	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2290	0.2292	0.2291	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1670	0.3590	0.2918	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7500	0.7810	0.7702	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1380	0.1380	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0570	0.0546	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3290	0.3287	0.3288	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7920	0.6440	0.6958	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1900	0.1940	0.1926	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2960	0.2961	0.2961	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8330	0.6450	0.7108	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	24
Season rows before report date	24
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	24
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.315

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260503_ARI@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	699912
playerID	699912
playerName	Jose Fernandez
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	ARI
teamID	1

Jorge Barrosa (678489) · BATTER · LF · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 18

All-history rows before 20260507: 18

System season_avg: 0.2100

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2097

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_3B	0.056	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_AB	3.444	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.444	3.000	-0.444	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.165	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.210	0.000	0.124	0.333
predicted_BB	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.490	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.722	0.000	0.278	1.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.219	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.258	0.000	0.242	0.500
predicted_R	0.444	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.444	0.000	-0.444	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.278	0.000	-0.278	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.303	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.387	0.000	-0.054	0.333
predicted_SO	1.167	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.167	0.000	-0.167	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.500	-
predicted_3B	0.056	-
predicted_AB	3.444	-
predicted_AVG	0.165	-
predicted_BB	0.167	-
predicted_H	0.490	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.219	-
predicted_R	0.444	-
predicted_RBI	0.190	-
predicted_SLG	0.303	-
predicted_SO	1.167	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.471	-0.029
predicted_3B	0.027	-0.029
predicted_AB	3.444	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.165	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.184	0.017
predicted_H	0.541	0.051
predicted_HBP	0.046	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.219	-0.000
predicted_R	0.480	0.036
predicted_RBI	0.207	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.303	0.000
predicted_SO	1.066	-0.101

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.44), rates preserved: AVG=0.157 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	2.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	0.1176	0.1667	0.2353	0.1177	0.0588	0.0588	0.2353
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	7.000	5.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	12.000	0.2000	0.2632	0.3429	0.2000	0.0571	0.0571	0.3429
season	0.20	18	-	62.000	13.000	9.000	1.000	5.000	8.000	3.000	21.000	0.2097	0.2576	0.3871	0.2097	0.0806	0.0484	0.3387

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.4550
predicted_3B	0.0110
predicted_AB	3.4440
predicted_AVG	0.1649
predicted_BB	0.1930
predicted_H	0.5680
predicted_HBP	0.0460
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.2187
predicted_R	0.5000
predicted_RBI	0.2160
predicted_SLG	0.3033
predicted_SO	1.0110

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.5000	0.4550	0.4708	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0560	0.0110	0.0267	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4440	3.4440	3.4440	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1650	0.1649	0.1649	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1670	0.1930	0.1839	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4900	0.5680	0.5407	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0460	0.0460	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2190	0.2187	0.2188	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4440	0.5000	0.4804	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1900	0.2160	0.2069	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3030	0.3033	0.3032	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1670	1.0110	1.0656	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260502_ARI@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	678489
playerID	678489
playerName	Jorge Barrosa
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	ARI
teamID	1

Zac Gallen (668678) · PITCHER · Starter · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 7

All-history rows before 20260507: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	2.286	6.000	-0.286	-4.000
predicted_IP	4.100	4.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.486	3.200	-0.386	0.900
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	-	Pitching_SO	2.857	3.000	2.143	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 4.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	22.100	12.000	30.000	8.000	16.000	1.000	4.8358	1.7015	0.5373	1.3433	0.3582	0.7164	0.0448
last_10	0.35	7	32.100	16.000	39.000	10.000	20.000	2.000	4.4536	1.5155	0.4949	1.2062	0.3093	0.6186	0.0619
season	0.20	7	32.100	16.000	39.000	10.000	20.000	2.000	4.4536	1.5155	0.4949	1.2062	0.3093	0.6186	0.0619

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.4960
predicted_ER	2.3210
predicted_ERA	4.6256
predicted_H	5.7270
predicted_HR	0.2450
predicted_IP	4.2000
predicted_SO	2.9930
predicted_WHIP	1.5992

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	1.4960	0.9724	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.3210	2.2087	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.6256	4.6256	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	5.7270	5.1226	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2450	0.1593	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.1000	4.2000	4.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	2.9930	3.6955	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5992	1.5992	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.1
H	4
R	2
ER	2
BB	0
SO	5
HR	0
BF	19
Pitches	75

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	21
Pitching_ER	6
Pitching_ERA	4.45
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	6
Pitching_H	7
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	3.2
Pitching_Pitches	95
Pitching_R	6
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	57
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260501_ARI@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	668678
playerID	668678
playerName	Zac Gallen
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	ARI
teamID	1

Jonathan Loáisiga (642528) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 2

All-history rows before 20260507: 2

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.050	1.000	0.150	0.200
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total H	Total SO	WHIP	H_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	2	2.100	1.000	2.000	0.4286	0.4286	0.8571
last_10	0.35	2	2.100	1.000	2.000	0.4286	0.4286	0.8571
season	0.20	2	2.100	1.000	2.000	0.4286	0.4286	0.8571

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.0000
predicted_ER	0.0000
predicted_ERA	0.0000
predicted_H	0.5710
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.1430
predicted_WHIP	0.4286

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.5710	0.7211	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.1430	0.7429	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.4286	0.4286	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.00
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260328_ARI@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	642528
playerID	642528
playerName	Jonathan Loáisiga
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ARI
teamID	1

Juan Morillo (666661) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 2

All-history rows before 20260507: 2

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.000	2.000	0.000	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.600	0.200	0.400	0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	2	1.200	2.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	10.8000	2.4000	1.2000	1.2000	1.2000	0.6000	0.6000
last_10	0.35	2	1.200	2.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	10.8000	2.4000	1.2000	1.2000	1.2000	0.6000	0.6000
season	0.20	2	1.200	2.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	10.8000	2.4000	1.2000	1.2000	1.2000	0.6000	0.6000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.8000
predicted_ER	0.8000
predicted_ERA	10.8000
predicted_H	0.8000
predicted_HR	0.4000
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.4000
predicted_WHIP	2.4000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.8000	0.5200	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.8000	0.8700	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	10.8000	10.8000	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	0.8000	1.5700	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.4000	0.2600	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.4000	0.6100	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	2.4000	2.4000	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	3
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	10.80
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	22
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L, BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260328_ARI@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	666661
playerID	666661
playerName	Juan Morillo
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ARI
teamID	1

Kevin Ginkel (656464) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 1

All-history rows before 20260507: 1

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.000	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.000	1.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP
last_5	0.45	1	1.000	1.000	2.000	9.0000	2.0000	1.0000	2.0000
last_10	0.35	1	1.000	1.000	2.000	9.0000	2.0000	1.0000	2.0000
season	0.20	1	1.000	1.000	2.000	9.0000	2.0000	1.0000	2.0000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.0000
predicted_ER	1.0000
predicted_ERA	9.0000
predicted_H	2.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.0000
predicted_WHIP	2.0000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	9.0000	9.0000	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	2.0000	2.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	2.0000	2.0000	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	9.00
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	21
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260327_ARI@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	656464
playerID	656464
playerName	Kevin Ginkel
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ARI
teamID	1

Paul Sewald (623149) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 1

All-history rows before 20260507: 1

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.100	0.100	0.900	0.900
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP
last_5	0.45	1	0.100
last_10	0.35	1	0.100
season	0.20	1	0.100

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.0000
predicted_ER	0.0000
predicted_ERA	0.0000
predicted_H	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	0.1000
predicted_SO	0.0000
predicted_WHIP	0.0000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.0000	0.3500	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.1000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.0000	0.3500	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	1
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.00
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	5
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	5
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260328_ARI@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	623149
playerID	623149
playerName	Paul Sewald
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ARI
teamID	1

20260507_STL@SD

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 2, "confidence": 0.6169149624859105, "home_win_probability": 0.3830850375140895, "away_win_probability": 0.6169149624859105, "predicted_score_text": "STL 5 - 2 SD", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to final winner probability with starter-quality caps.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "predicted_score_text": "STL 5 - 4 SD", "confidence": 0.6169149624859105, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score", "final_prediction_synced": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "STL 5 - 4 SD", "winner": "STL"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 2, "score_text": "STL 5 - 2 SD", "winner": "STL"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": -2, "total_run_delta": -2, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"}}

Away Team: STL

JJ Wetherholt (802139) · BATTER · 2B · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 35

All-history rows before 20260507: 35

System season_avg: 0.2430

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2426

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.886	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.886	4.000	1.114	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.196	0.200	0.200	Hitting_AVG	0.243	0.000	-0.043	0.200
predicted_BB	0.514	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.514	0.000	-0.514	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.720	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.943	0.000	0.057	1.000
predicted_HR	0.130	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.200	0.000	0.800	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.260	0.200	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.356	0.000	-0.156	0.200
predicted_R	0.800	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.800	0.000	0.200	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	3.000	3.000	Hitting_RBI	0.514	0.000	2.486	3.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.114	0.000	-0.114	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.334	0.800	0.800	Hitting_SLG	0.434	0.000	0.366	0.800
predicted_SO	0.800	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.800	1.000	1.200	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.886	-
predicted_AVG	0.196	-
predicted_BB	0.514	-
predicted_H	0.720	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.260	-
predicted_R	0.800	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.334	-
predicted_SO	0.800	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.137	-0.006
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.049	0.163
predicted_AVG	0.196	0.000
predicted_BB	0.376	-0.138
predicted_H	0.780	0.060
predicted_HBP	0.077	-
predicted_HR	0.140	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.260	-0.000
predicted_R	0.628	-0.172
predicted_RBI	0.475	0.035
predicted_SLG	0.334	0.000
predicted_SO	0.756	-0.044

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.05), rates preserved: AVG=0.193 HR/AB=0.035

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	3.000	3.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.886

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	0.1429	0.1818	0.1429	0.1429	0.0000	0.0952	0.0476	0.1905
last_10	0.35	10	-	42.000	10.000	3.000	3.000	6.000	8.000	3.000	6.000	0.2381	0.3043	0.5238	0.2381	0.0714	0.1429	0.0714	0.1429
season	0.20	35	-	136.000	33.000	5.000	7.000	18.000	28.000	18.000	28.000	0.2426	0.3558	0.4338	0.2427	0.0515	0.1323	0.1323	0.2059

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1340
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.1370
predicted_AVG	0.1962
predicted_BB	0.3020
predicted_H	0.8120
predicted_HBP	0.0770
predicted_HR	0.1460
predicted_OBP	0.2595
predicted_R	0.5350
predicted_RBI	0.4940
predicted_SLG	0.3344
predicted_SO	0.7320

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.1340	0.1371	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8860	4.1370	4.0492	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1960	0.1962	0.1961	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5140	0.3020	0.3762	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7200	0.8120	0.7798	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0770	0.0770	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1460	0.1404	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2600	0.2595	0.2597	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8000	0.5350	0.6278	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.4940	0.4751	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3340	0.3344	0.3343	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8000	0.7320	0.7558	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	3
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.243

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260506_MIL@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	802139
playerID	802139
playerName	JJ Wetherholt
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	STL
teamID	26

Pedro Pagés (686780) · BATTER · C · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 23

All-history rows before 20260507: 23

System season_avg: 0.2280

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2278

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.130	0.000	-0.130	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.435	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.435	3.000	0.565	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.202	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.228	0.000	0.022	0.250
predicted_BB	0.174	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.174	0.000	-0.174	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.560	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.783	0.000	0.217	1.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.130	0.000	-0.130	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.245	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.279	0.000	-0.029	0.250
predicted_R	0.348	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.348	0.000	-0.348	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.348	0.000	-0.348	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.087	0.000	-0.087	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.322	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.380	0.000	-0.130	0.250
predicted_SO	0.957	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.957	1.000	0.043	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.130	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.435	-
predicted_AVG	0.202	-
predicted_BB	0.174	-
predicted_H	0.560	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.245	-
predicted_R	0.348	-
predicted_RBI	0.140	-
predicted_SLG	0.322	-
predicted_SO	0.957	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	0.013
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.602	0.167
predicted_AVG	0.202	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.188	0.014
predicted_H	0.680	0.120
predicted_HBP	0.019	-
predicted_HR	0.088	0.018
predicted_OBP	0.245	-0.000
predicted_R	0.295	-0.053
predicted_RBI	0.166	0.026
predicted_SLG	0.322	0.000
predicted_SO	1.218	0.261

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.60), rates preserved: AVG=0.189 HR/AB=0.024

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 23

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	8.000	0.1579	0.2000	0.2105	0.1579	0.0000	0.0000	0.0526	0.4210
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	9.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	13.000	0.2432	0.2821	0.4324	0.2432	0.0541	0.0811	0.0541	0.3513
season	0.20	23	-	79.000	18.000	3.000	3.000	8.000	8.000	4.000	22.000	0.2278	0.2791	0.3797	0.2278	0.0380	0.1013	0.0506	0.2785

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1500
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.6920
predicted_AVG	0.2017
predicted_BB	0.1950
predicted_H	0.7450
predicted_HBP	0.0190
predicted_HR	0.0980
predicted_OBP	0.2446
predicted_R	0.2670
predicted_RBI	0.1800
predicted_SLG	0.3220
predicted_SO	1.3590

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1300	0.1500	0.1430	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4350	3.6920	3.6021	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2020	0.2017	0.2018	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1740	0.1950	0.1876	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5600	0.7450	0.6803	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0190	0.0190	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0980	0.0882	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2450	0.2446	0.2447	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3480	0.2670	0.2954	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1400	0.1800	0.1660	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3220	0.3220	0.3220	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9570	1.3590	1.2183	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	23
Season rows before report date	23
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	23
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.228

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260506_MIL@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	686780
playerID	686780
playerName	Pedro Pagés
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	STL
teamID	26

Victor Scott II (687363) · BATTER · CF · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 31

All-history rows before 20260507: 31

System season_avg: 0.1890

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1889

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.065	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.065	0.000	-0.065	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.903	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	2.903	3.000	1.097	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.189	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.189	0.333	0.311	0.167
predicted_BB	0.226	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.226	0.000	-0.226	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.065	0.000	-0.065	0.000
predicted_H	0.450	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.548	1.000	1.452	1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.032	0.000	-0.032	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.271	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.253	0.333	0.247	0.167
predicted_R	0.355	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.355	1.000	0.645	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.161	0.000	-0.161	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.194	1.000	-0.194	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.276	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.244	0.333	0.256	0.167
predicted_SO	0.903	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.903	1.000	-0.903	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.065	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.903	-
predicted_AVG	0.189	-
predicted_BB	0.226	-
predicted_H	0.450	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.271	-
predicted_R	0.355	-
predicted_RBI	0.050	-
predicted_SLG	0.276	-
predicted_SO	0.903	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.114	0.049
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.941	0.038
predicted_AVG	0.189	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.275	0.049
predicted_H	0.521	0.071
predicted_HBP	0.039	-
predicted_HR	0.036	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.271	0.000
predicted_R	0.462	0.107
predicted_RBI	0.060	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.276	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.915	0.012

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.94), rates preserved: AVG=0.177 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	4.000	0.2143	0.3125	0.2857	0.2143	0.0000	0.0000	0.1429	0.2857
last_10	0.35	10	-	32.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	11.000	0.1562	0.2286	0.2812	0.1562	0.0312	0.0312	0.0625	0.3438
season	0.20	31	-	90.000	17.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	11.000	7.000	28.000	0.1889	0.2525	0.2444	0.1889	0.0111	0.0556	0.0778	0.3111

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1410
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.9610
predicted_AVG	0.1889
predicted_BB	0.3010
predicted_H	0.5590
predicted_HBP	0.0390
predicted_HR	0.0390
predicted_OBP	0.2711
predicted_R	0.5200
predicted_RBI	0.0650
predicted_SLG	0.2759
predicted_SO	0.9210

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0650	0.1410	0.1144	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.9030	2.9610	2.9407	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1890	0.1889	0.1889	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2260	0.3010	0.2747	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4500	0.5590	0.5209	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0390	0.0390	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0390	0.0358	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2710	0.2711	0.2711	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3550	0.5200	0.4622	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0500	0.0650	0.0597	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2760	0.2759	0.2759	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9030	0.9210	0.9147	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.189

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260506_MIL@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	687363
playerID	687363
playerName	Victor Scott II
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	STL
teamID	26

Nolan Gorman (669357) · BATTER · 3B · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 31

All-history rows before 20260507: 31

System season_avg: 0.2280

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2281

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.129	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.129	1.000	-0.129	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.677	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.677	3.000	-0.677	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.266	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.228	0.333	0.105	0.000
predicted_BB	0.387	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.387	1.000	-0.387	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.880	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.839	1.000	0.161	0.000
predicted_HR	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.129	0.000	-0.129	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.311	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.295	0.500	0.205	0.000
predicted_R	0.419	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.419	1.000	-0.419	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.530	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.645	0.000	-0.645	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.482	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.368	0.667	-0.035	-0.333
predicted_SO	1.161	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.161	2.000	-0.161	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.129	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.677	-
predicted_AVG	0.266	-
predicted_BB	0.387	-
predicted_H	0.880	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.311	-
predicted_R	0.419	-
predicted_RBI	0.530	-
predicted_SLG	0.482	-
predicted_SO	1.161	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.222	0.093
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.776	0.099
predicted_AVG	0.266	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.315	-0.072
predicted_H	0.970	0.090
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.177	0.017
predicted_OBP	0.311	0.000
predicted_R	0.489	0.070
predicted_RBI	0.582	0.052
predicted_SLG	0.482	0.000
predicted_SO	1.159	-0.002

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.78), rates preserved: AVG=0.257 HR/AB=0.047

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	0.3000	0.3333	0.5500	0.3000	0.0500	0.1500	0.0500	0.3000
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	9.000	2.000	2.000	6.000	5.000	3.000	11.000	0.2432	0.2927	0.4595	0.2432	0.0541	0.1622	0.0811	0.2973
season	0.20	31	-	114.000	26.000	4.000	4.000	20.000	13.000	12.000	36.000	0.2281	0.2946	0.3684	0.2281	0.0351	0.1754	0.1053	0.3158

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2720
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.8300
predicted_AVG	0.2657
predicted_BB	0.2760
predicted_H	1.0180
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1860
predicted_OBP	0.3114
predicted_R	0.5270
predicted_RBI	0.6100
predicted_SLG	0.4820
predicted_SO	1.1580

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1290	0.2720	0.2220	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6770	3.8300	3.7765	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2660	0.2657	0.2658	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3870	0.2760	0.3149	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8800	1.0180	0.9697	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.1860	0.1769	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3110	0.3114	0.3113	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4190	0.5270	0.4892	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5300	0.6100	0.5820	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4820	0.4820	0.4820	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1610	1.1580	1.1590	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.228

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260506_MIL@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	669357
playerID	669357
playerName	Nolan Gorman
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	STL
teamID	26

Jordan Walker (691023) · BATTER · RF · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 34

All-history rows before 20260507: 34

System season_avg: 0.3080

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3077

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.176	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.176	0.000	-0.176	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.824	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.824	2.000	0.176	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.388	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.308	0.000	-0.058	0.250
predicted_BB	0.471	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.471	2.000	-0.471	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_H	1.350	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.176	0.000	-0.176	1.000
predicted_HR	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.294	0.000	-0.294	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.487	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.385	0.500	-0.135	-0.250
predicted_R	0.824	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.824	0.000	0.176	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.920	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.794	0.000	-0.794	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.206	1.000	-0.206	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.664	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.585	0.000	-0.335	0.250
predicted_SO	1.206	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.206	0.000	-1.206	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.176	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.824	-
predicted_AVG	0.388	-
predicted_BB	0.471	-
predicted_H	1.350	-
predicted_HR	0.220	-
predicted_OBP	0.487	-
predicted_R	0.824	-
predicted_RBI	0.920	-
predicted_SLG	0.664	-
predicted_SO	1.206	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.252	0.076
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.568	-0.256
predicted_AVG	0.388	0.000
predicted_BB	0.626	0.155
predicted_H	1.338	-0.012
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.219	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.487	0.000
predicted_R	0.854	0.030
predicted_RBI	0.911	-0.009
predicted_SLG	0.664	0.000
predicted_SO	0.867	-0.339

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.82), rates preserved: AVG=0.350 HR/AB=0.057

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.824

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	5.000	4.000	2.000	0.4375	0.5500	0.7500	0.4375	0.0625	0.2500	0.2500	0.1250
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	13.000	2.000	2.000	11.000	7.000	7.000	8.000	0.3714	0.4651	0.6000	0.3714	0.0571	0.3143	0.2000	0.2286
season	0.20	34	-	130.000	40.000	6.000	10.000	27.000	28.000	16.000	41.000	0.3077	0.3851	0.5846	0.3077	0.0769	0.2077	0.1231	0.3154

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2930
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.4300
predicted_AVG	0.3884
predicted_BB	0.7100
predicted_H	1.3320
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.2180
predicted_OBP	0.4873
predicted_R	0.8700
predicted_RBI	0.9060
predicted_SLG	0.6644
predicted_SO	0.6840

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1760	0.2930	0.2520	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8240	3.4300	3.5679	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3880	0.3884	0.3883	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4710	0.7100	0.6263	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.3500	1.3320	1.3383	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2200	0.2180	0.2187	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4870	0.4873	0.4872	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8240	0.8700	0.8539	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.9200	0.9060	0.9109	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6640	0.6644	0.6643	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2060	0.6840	0.8667	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.308

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260506_MIL@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	691023
playerID	691023
playerName	Jordan Walker
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	STL
teamID	26

Iván Herrera (671056) · BATTER · DH · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 36

All-history rows before 20260507: 36

System season_avg: 0.2560

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2558

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.278	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.278	1.000	-0.278	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.583	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.583	4.000	1.417	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.293	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.256	0.250	-0.256	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.750	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.750	0.000	-0.750	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.960	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.917	1.000	-0.917	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.402	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.412	0.250	-0.412	-0.250
predicted_R	0.583	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.583	0.000	-0.583	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.430	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.472	0.000	-0.472	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.453	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.426	0.500	-0.426	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.806	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.806	2.000	0.194	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.278	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.583	-
predicted_AVG	0.293	-
predicted_BB	0.750	-
predicted_H	0.960	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.402	-
predicted_R	0.583	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.453	-
predicted_SO	0.806	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.444	0.166
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.709	0.126
predicted_AVG	0.293	0.000
predicted_BB	0.690	-0.060
predicted_H	1.056	0.096
predicted_HBP	0.047	-
predicted_HR	0.022	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.402	-0.000
predicted_R	0.688	0.105
predicted_RBI	0.476	0.046
predicted_SLG	0.453	0.000
predicted_SO	1.065	0.259

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.285 HR/AB=0.006

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	6.000	3.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	7.000	0.3000	0.3636	0.4500	0.3000	0.0000	0.1500	0.1000	0.3500
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	11.000	6.000	0.000	4.000	10.000	9.000	12.000	0.3056	0.4444	0.4722	0.3056	0.0000	0.1111	0.2500	0.3333
season	0.20	36	-	129.000	33.000	10.000	4.000	17.000	21.000	27.000	29.000	0.2558	0.4121	0.4264	0.2558	0.0310	0.1318	0.2093	0.2248

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.5340
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7770
predicted_AVG	0.2931
predicted_BB	0.6580
predicted_H	1.1070
predicted_HBP	0.0470
predicted_HR	0.0230
predicted_OBP	0.4016
predicted_R	0.7450
predicted_RBI	0.5010
predicted_SLG	0.4531
predicted_SO	1.2050

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2780	0.5340	0.4444	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5830	3.7770	3.7091	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2930	0.2931	0.2931	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7500	0.6580	0.6902	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9600	1.1070	1.0555	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0470	0.0470	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0230	0.0219	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4020	0.4016	0.4017	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5830	0.7450	0.6883	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.5010	0.4761	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4530	0.4531	0.4531	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8060	1.2050	1.0654	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.256

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260506_MIL@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	671056
playerID	671056
playerName	Iván Herrera
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	STL
teamID	26

Alec Burleson (676475) · BATTER · 1B · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 34

All-history rows before 20260507: 34

System season_avg: 0.2700

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2701

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.265	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.265	0.000	-0.265	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.029	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	4.029	4.000	-1.029	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.254	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.270	0.250	0.063	0.083
predicted_BB	0.471	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.471	0.000	0.529	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.940	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.088	1.000	-0.088	0.000
predicted_HR	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.147	0.000	-0.147	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.325	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.344	0.250	0.156	0.250
predicted_R	0.529	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.529	0.000	0.471	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.890	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.853	1.000	-0.853	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.462	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.445	0.250	-0.112	0.083
predicted_SO	0.706	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.706	1.000	-0.706	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.265	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.029	-
predicted_AVG	0.254	-
predicted_BB	0.471	-
predicted_H	0.940	-
predicted_HR	0.180	-
predicted_OBP	0.325	-
predicted_R	0.529	-
predicted_RBI	0.890	-
predicted_SLG	0.462	-
predicted_SO	0.706	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.253	-0.012
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.955	-0.074
predicted_AVG	0.254	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.434	-0.037
predicted_H	0.975	0.035
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.186	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.325	-0.000
predicted_R	0.611	0.082
predicted_RBI	0.928	0.038
predicted_SLG	0.462	0.000
predicted_SO	0.898	0.192

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.03), rates preserved: AVG=0.242 HR/AB=0.046

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 4.029

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	2.000	6.000	0.2105	0.2857	0.4211	0.2105	0.0526	0.2105	0.1053	0.3158
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	12.000	3.000	2.000	12.000	8.000	4.000	9.000	0.3000	0.3636	0.5250	0.3000	0.0500	0.3000	0.1000	0.2250
season	0.20	34	-	137.000	37.000	9.000	5.000	29.000	18.000	16.000	24.000	0.2701	0.3442	0.4453	0.2701	0.0365	0.2117	0.1168	0.1752

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2470
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.9160
predicted_AVG	0.2537
predicted_BB	0.4140
predicted_H	0.9940
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1900
predicted_OBP	0.3247
predicted_R	0.6550
predicted_RBI	0.9480
predicted_SLG	0.4623
predicted_SO	1.0020

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2650	0.2470	0.2533	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0290	3.9160	3.9555	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2540	0.2537	0.2538	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4710	0.4140	0.4339	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9400	0.9940	0.9751	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1800	0.1900	0.1865	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3250	0.3247	0.3248	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5290	0.6550	0.6109	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.8900	0.9480	0.9277	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4620	0.4623	0.4622	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7060	1.0020	0.8984	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.27

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260506_MIL@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	676475
playerID	676475
playerName	Alec Burleson
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	STL
teamID	26

Masyn Winn (691026) · BATTER · SS · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 31

All-history rows before 20260507: 31

System season_avg: 0.2650

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2650

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.194	0.000	0.806	1.000
predicted_3B	0.033	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.032	0.000	-0.032	0.000
predicted_AB	3.900	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.774	4.000	-0.774	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.286	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.265	0.000	0.068	0.333
predicted_BB	0.367	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.387	0.000	-0.387	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.950	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.032	0.000	-0.032	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.355	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.346	0.000	-0.096	0.250
predicted_R	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.484	0.000	0.516	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.220	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	0.452	0.000	1.548	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.129	0.000	-0.129	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.339	0.667	0.667	Hitting_SLG	0.359	0.000	0.308	0.667
predicted_SO	0.867	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.839	1.000	-0.839	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.033	-
predicted_AB	3.900	-
predicted_AVG	0.286	-
predicted_BB	0.367	-
predicted_H	0.950	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.355	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.220	-
predicted_SLG	0.339	-
predicted_SO	0.867	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.178	-0.022
predicted_3B	0.015	-0.018
predicted_AB	3.789	-0.111
predicted_AVG	0.286	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.301	-0.066
predicted_H	1.025	0.075
predicted_HBP	0.140	-
predicted_HR	0.007	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.355	0.000
predicted_R	0.343	-0.157
predicted_RBI	0.240	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.339	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.628	-0.239

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.90), rates preserved: AVG=0.263 HR/AB=0.002

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	1.000	1.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.900

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	0.3333	0.4000	0.3889	0.3333	0.0000	0.0556	0.0556	0.0556
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	9.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	7.000	0.2368	0.3095	0.2632	0.2368	0.0000	0.0526	0.0790	0.1842
season	0.20	30	-	117.000	31.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	14.000	15.000	11.000	26.000	0.2650	0.3359	0.3590	0.2650	0.0086	0.1197	0.0940	0.2222

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1660
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.7300
predicted_AVG	0.2859
predicted_BB	0.2660
predicted_H	1.0660
predicted_HBP	0.1400
predicted_HR	0.0060
predicted_OBP	0.3555
predicted_R	0.2580
predicted_RBI	0.2510
predicted_SLG	0.3389
predicted_SO	0.5000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.1660	0.1779	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0330	0.0060	0.0155	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9000	3.7300	3.7895	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2860	0.2859	0.2859	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3670	0.2660	0.3014	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9500	1.0660	1.0254	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1400	0.1400	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0060	0.0074	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3550	0.3555	0.3553	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.2580	0.3427	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2200	0.2510	0.2402	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3390	0.3389	0.3389	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8670	0.5000	0.6284	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	0
SF	1
HBP	0
season_avg	0.265

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260506_MIL@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	691026
playerID	691026
playerName	Masyn Winn
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	STL
teamID	26

Nathan Church (701675) · BATTER · LF · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 26

All-history rows before 20260507: 26

System season_avg: 0.2470

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2474

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.154	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.154	1.000	-0.154	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.731	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.731	4.000	0.269	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.270	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.247	0.250	0.003	0.000
predicted_BB	0.154	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.038	0.000	-0.038	0.000
predicted_H	0.870	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.923	1.000	0.077	0.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.275	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.275	0.250	-0.025	0.000
predicted_R	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.510	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.115	0.000	-0.115	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.467	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.412	0.500	-0.162	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.846	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.846	0.000	0.154	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.154	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.731	-
predicted_AVG	0.270	-
predicted_BB	0.154	-
predicted_H	0.870	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.275	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.510	-
predicted_SLG	0.467	-
predicted_SO	0.846	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.314	0.160
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.975	0.244
predicted_AVG	0.270	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.076	-0.078
predicted_H	1.025	0.155
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.128	0.018
predicted_OBP	0.275	0.000
predicted_R	0.472	-0.028
predicted_RBI	0.600	0.090
predicted_SLG	0.467	0.000
predicted_SO	0.745	-0.101

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.97), rates preserved: AVG=0.258 HR/AB=0.032

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 26

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	6.000	3.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	0.2857	0.2857	0.4286	0.2857	0.0000	0.1429	0.0000	0.1429
last_10	0.35	10	-	42.000	11.000	3.000	3.000	8.000	5.000	0.000	7.000	0.2619	0.2619	0.5476	0.2619	0.0714	0.1905	0.0000	0.1667
season	0.20	26	-	97.000	24.000	4.000	4.000	13.000	13.000	4.000	22.000	0.2474	0.2745	0.4124	0.2474	0.0412	0.1340	0.0412	0.2268

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.4000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.1060
predicted_AVG	0.2697
predicted_BB	0.0340
predicted_H	1.1080
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1370
predicted_OBP	0.2751
predicted_R	0.4570
predicted_RBI	0.6480
predicted_SLG	0.4670
predicted_SO	0.6900

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1540	0.4000	0.3139	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7310	4.1060	3.9747	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2700	0.2697	0.2698	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1540	0.0340	0.0760	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8700	1.1080	1.0247	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1370	0.1275	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2750	0.2751	0.2751	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.4570	0.4721	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5100	0.6480	0.5997	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4670	0.4670	0.4670	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8460	0.6900	0.7446	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	26
Season rows before report date	26
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	26
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.247

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260504_MIL@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	701675
playerID	701675
playerName	Nathan Church
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	STL
teamID	26

Matthew Liberatore (669461) · PITCHER · Starter · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 7

All-history rows before 20260507: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	2.571	2.000	-0.571	0.000
predicted_IP	5.100	5.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.043	5.200	0.057	-0.100
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_SO	3.286	4.000	-0.286	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 5.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	25.000	16.000	31.000	10.000	19.000	6.000	5.7600	1.6400	0.6400	1.2400	0.4000	0.7600	0.2400
last_10	0.35	7	36.000	18.000	41.000	13.000	23.000	8.000	4.5000	1.5000	0.5000	1.1389	0.3611	0.6389	0.2222
season	0.20	7	36.000	18.000	41.000	13.000	23.000	8.000	4.5000	1.5000	0.5000	1.1389	0.3611	0.6389	0.2222

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.8930
predicted_ER	2.8150
predicted_ERA	5.0670
predicted_H	5.9220
predicted_HR	1.1510
predicted_IP	5.0000
predicted_SO	3.4670
predicted_WHIP	1.5630

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	1.8930	1.2305	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.8150	2.5297	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.0670	5.0670	form_only
predicted_H	5.0000	5.9220	5.5993	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	2.0000	1.1510	1.4482	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.1000	5.0000	5.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	3.4670	3.3035	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5630	1.5630	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.1
H	5
R	2
ER	2
BB	0
SO	3
HR	2
BF	23
Pitches	94

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	23
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	4.50
Pitching_Flyouts	5
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	5
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.2
Pitching_Pitches	96
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	4
Pitching_Strikes	59
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260501_LAD@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	669461
playerID	669461
playerName	Matthew Liberatore
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	STL
teamID	26

Ryne Stanek (592773) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 17

All-history rows before 20260507: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.706	0.000	-0.706	0.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.718	1.000	0.482	0.200
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.176	1.000	-1.176	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	2.000	3.000	3.000	6.000	0.000	4.1538	1.3846	0.4615	0.6923	0.6923	1.3846	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.100	8.000	11.000	8.000	11.000	0.000	8.6400	2.2800	0.9600	1.3200	0.9600	1.3200	0.0000
season	0.20	17	15.000	12.000	18.000	13.000	20.000	1.000	7.2000	2.0667	0.8000	1.2000	0.8667	1.3333	0.0667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.7250
predicted_ER	0.6220
predicted_ERA	6.3332
predicted_H	0.8950
predicted_HR	0.0120
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1940
predicted_WHIP	1.8344

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.7250	0.4713	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.6220	0.4043	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	6.3332	6.3332	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.8950	1.2817	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0120	0.0078	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.0000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.1940	0.7761	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.8344	1.8344	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	2
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	7.20
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	7
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	6
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_MIL@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	592773
playerID	592773
playerName	Ryne Stanek
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	STL
teamID	26

JoJo Romero (668941) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 17

All-history rows before 20260507: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.412	0.000	-0.412	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.794	1.000	0.206	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.765	0.000	0.235	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	2.000	4.000	3.000	7.000	2.000	4.1538	1.6154	0.4615	0.9231	0.6923	1.6154	0.4615
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	7.000	10.000	5.000	8.000	3.000	6.7500	1.6071	0.7500	1.0714	0.5357	0.8571	0.3214
season	0.20	17	17.000	7.000	15.000	7.000	13.000	3.000	3.7059	1.2941	0.4118	0.8823	0.4118	0.7647	0.1765

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5810
predicted_ER	0.5530
predicted_ERA	4.9729
predicted_H	0.9670
predicted_HR	0.3550
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1800
predicted_WHIP	1.5482

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.5810	0.7276	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5530	0.3595	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.9729	4.9729	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9670	0.6286	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.3550	0.2307	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1800	1.1170	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5482	1.5482	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.71
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_MIL@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	668941
playerID	668941
playerName	JoJo Romero
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	STL
teamID	26

Riley O'Brien (676617) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 17

All-history rows before 20260507: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.235	0.000	-0.235	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.918	0.200	0.082	0.800
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.118	0.000	0.882	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	4.000	10.000	1.000	5.000	7.7143	2.3571	0.8571	2.1429	0.2143	1.0714
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	4.000	11.000	1.000	12.000	3.7241	1.2414	0.4138	1.1379	0.1035	1.2414
season	0.20	17	17.000	4.000	15.000	1.000	19.000	2.1176	0.9412	0.2353	0.8823	0.0588	1.1177

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1440
predicted_ER	0.5780
predicted_ERA	5.1984
predicted_H	1.5390
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1400
predicted_WHIP	1.6834

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1440	0.0936	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5780	0.3757	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.1984	5.1984	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.5390	1.3504	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.1400	1.4410	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.6834	1.6834	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	2
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.12
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	3
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	3
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_MIL@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	676617
playerID	676617
playerName	Riley O'Brien
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	STL
teamID	26

Home Team: SD

Jackson Merrill (701538) · BATTER · CF · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 34

All-history rows before 20260507: 34

System season_avg: 0.2350

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2353

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.235	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.235	1.000	-0.235	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	4.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.342	0.200	0.200	Hitting_AVG	0.235	0.250	-0.035	-0.050
predicted_BB	0.324	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.324	1.000	-0.324	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.290	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.941	1.000	0.059	0.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.383	0.200	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.297	0.400	-0.097	-0.200
predicted_R	0.647	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.647	0.000	-0.647	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.470	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.529	0.000	-0.529	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.206	0.000	-0.206	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.522	0.200	0.200	Hitting_SLG	0.382	0.500	-0.182	-0.300
predicted_SO	1.029	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.029	0.000	-0.029	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.235	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.342	-
predicted_BB	0.324	-
predicted_H	1.290	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.383	-
predicted_R	0.647	-
predicted_RBI	0.470	-
predicted_SLG	0.522	-
predicted_SO	1.029	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.275	0.040
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.081	0.081
predicted_AVG	0.342	0.000
predicted_BB	0.283	-0.041
predicted_H	1.369	0.079
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.142	0.012
predicted_OBP	0.383	0.000
predicted_R	0.623	-0.024
predicted_RBI	0.499	0.029
predicted_SLG	0.522	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.934	-0.095

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.08), rates preserved: AVG=0.336 HR/AB=0.035

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, BvP AVG=0.500)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	9.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	0.4286	0.4545	0.6667	0.4286	0.0476	0.1429	0.0476	0.1905
last_10	0.35	10	-	41.000	12.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	6.000	3.000	9.000	0.2927	0.3409	0.4146	0.2927	0.0244	0.0976	0.0732	0.2195
season	0.20	34	-	136.000	32.000	8.000	4.000	18.000	22.000	11.000	35.000	0.2353	0.2973	0.3824	0.2353	0.0294	0.1323	0.0809	0.2574

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2960
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.1250
predicted_AVG	0.3424
predicted_BB	0.2610
predicted_H	1.4120
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.1480
predicted_OBP	0.3833
predicted_R	0.6100
predicted_RBI	0.5150
predicted_SLG	0.5216
predicted_SO	0.8830

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2350	0.2960	0.2746	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0000	4.1250	4.0812	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3420	0.3424	0.3423	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3240	0.2610	0.2831	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2900	1.4120	1.3693	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1480	0.1417	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3830	0.3833	0.3832	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6470	0.6100	0.6230	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4700	0.5150	0.4993	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5220	0.5216	0.5217	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0290	0.8830	0.9341	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.235

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260506_SD@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	701538
playerID	701538
playerName	Jackson Merrill
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	SD
teamID	23

Gavin Sheets (657757) · BATTER · DH · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 26

All-history rows before 20260507: 26

System season_avg: 0.2150

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2151

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.308	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.308	0.000	-0.308	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.577	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.577	3.000	0.423	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.189	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.215	0.333	-0.215	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.192	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.192	0.000	-0.192	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.550	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.769	1.000	-0.769	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.115	1.000	-0.115	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.263	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.263	0.333	-0.263	-0.333
predicted_R	0.385	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.385	1.000	-0.385	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.346	1.000	-0.346	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.341	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.398	1.333	-0.398	-1.333
predicted_SO	0.846	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.846	0.000	1.154	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.308	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.577	-
predicted_AVG	0.189	-
predicted_BB	0.192	-
predicted_H	0.550	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.263	-
predicted_R	0.385	-
predicted_RBI	0.230	-
predicted_SLG	0.341	-
predicted_SO	0.846	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.145	-0.163
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.426	-0.151
predicted_AVG	0.189	0.000
predicted_BB	0.197	0.005
predicted_H	0.604	0.054
predicted_HBP	0.136	-
predicted_HR	0.143	0.013
predicted_OBP	0.263	-0.000
predicted_R	0.371	-0.014
predicted_RBI	0.251	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.341	0.000
predicted_SO	0.739	-0.107

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.58), rates preserved: AVG=0.169 HR/AB=0.040

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 26

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	0.1875	0.2778	0.3750	0.1875	0.0625	0.0625	0.0625	0.1875
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	6.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	7.000	0.1765	0.2432	0.2647	0.1765	0.0294	0.0882	0.0588	0.2059
season	0.20	26	-	93.000	20.000	8.000	3.000	9.000	10.000	5.000	22.000	0.2151	0.2626	0.3978	0.2150	0.0323	0.0968	0.0538	0.2366

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0580
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.3450
predicted_AVG	0.1892
predicted_BB	0.1990
predicted_H	0.6330
predicted_HBP	0.1360
predicted_HR	0.1500
predicted_OBP	0.2626
predicted_R	0.3630
predicted_RBI	0.2620
predicted_SLG	0.3410
predicted_SO	0.6820

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3080	0.0580	0.1455	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5770	3.3450	3.4262	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1890	0.1892	0.1891	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1920	0.1990	0.1966	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5500	0.6330	0.6039	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1360	0.1360	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1500	0.1430	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2630	0.2626	0.2627	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3850	0.3630	0.3707	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2300	0.2620	0.2508	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3410	0.3410	0.3410	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8460	0.6820	0.7394	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	26
Season rows before report date	26
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	26
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.215

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260506_SD@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	657757
playerID	657757
playerName	Gavin Sheets
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	SD
teamID	23

Manny Machado (592518) · BATTER · 3B · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 34

All-history rows before 20260507: 34

System season_avg: 0.2070

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2066

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.118	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.559	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.559	3.000	-0.559	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.170	0.667	0.667	Hitting_AVG	0.207	0.000	0.460	0.667
predicted_BB	0.588	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.588	1.000	0.412	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_H	0.550	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.735	0.000	1.265	2.000
predicted_HR	0.190	2.000	2.000	Hitting_HR	0.147	0.000	1.853	2.000
predicted_OBP	0.249	0.750	0.750	Hitting_OBP	0.315	0.250	0.435	0.500
predicted_R	0.588	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.588	1.000	0.412	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	0.529	0.000	1.471	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.371	2.667	2.667	Hitting_SLG	0.364	0.000	2.303	2.667
predicted_SO	0.912	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.912	1.000	-0.912	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.118	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.559	-
predicted_AVG	0.170	-
predicted_BB	0.588	-
predicted_H	0.550	-
predicted_HR	0.190	-
predicted_OBP	0.249	-
predicted_R	0.588	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.371	-
predicted_SO	0.912	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.102	-0.016
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.707	0.148
predicted_AVG	0.170	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.470	-0.118
predicted_H	0.610	0.060
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.211	0.021
predicted_OBP	0.249	-0.000
predicted_R	0.580	-0.008
predicted_RBI	0.419	0.039
predicted_SLG	0.371	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.075	0.162

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.164 HR/AB=0.057

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, BvP AVG=0.400)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	2.000	2.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	0.1053	0.1905	0.2632	0.1053	0.0526	0.0526	0.1053	0.3684
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	9.000	2.000	3.000	7.000	8.000	3.000	10.000	0.2308	0.2857	0.5128	0.2308	0.0769	0.1795	0.0769	0.2564
season	0.20	34	-	121.000	25.000	4.000	5.000	18.000	20.000	20.000	31.000	0.2066	0.3147	0.3636	0.2066	0.0413	0.1488	0.1653	0.2562

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0930
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7870
predicted_AVG	0.1695
predicted_BB	0.4060
predicted_H	0.6420
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.2230
predicted_OBP	0.2487
predicted_R	0.5760
predicted_RBI	0.4400
predicted_SLG	0.3706
predicted_SO	1.1620

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1180	0.0930	0.1018	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5590	3.7870	3.7072	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1700	0.1695	0.1697	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5880	0.4060	0.4697	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5500	0.6420	0.6098	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1900	0.2230	0.2114	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2490	0.2487	0.2488	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5880	0.5760	0.5802	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.4400	0.4190	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3710	0.3706	0.3707	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9120	1.1620	1.0745	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	2
R	1
RBI	2
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.207

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	1
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260506_SD@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	592518
playerID	592518
playerName	Manny Machado
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	SD
teamID	23

Nick Castellanos (592206) · BATTER · RF · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 18

All-history rows before 20260507: 18

System season_avg: 0.2060

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2063

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.500	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	4.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.251	0.750	0.750	Hitting_AVG	0.206	0.500	0.544	0.250
predicted_BB	0.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.720	3.000	3.000	Hitting_H	0.722	2.000	2.278	1.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.275	0.750	0.750	Hitting_OBP	0.250	0.500	0.500	0.250
predicted_R	0.222	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.222	0.000	0.778	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.610	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.611	0.000	-0.611	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.056	1.000	-0.056	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.433	0.750	0.750	Hitting_SLG	0.317	0.500	0.433	0.250
predicted_SO	0.833	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.833	1.000	0.167	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.222	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.251	-
predicted_BB	0.222	-
predicted_H	0.720	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.275	-
predicted_R	0.222	-
predicted_RBI	0.610	-
predicted_SLG	0.433	-
predicted_SO	0.833	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.190	-0.032
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.354	-0.146
predicted_AVG	0.251	0.000
predicted_BB	0.190	-0.032
predicted_H	0.787	0.067
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.134	0.014
predicted_OBP	0.275	0.000
predicted_R	0.360	0.138
predicted_RBI	0.671	0.061
predicted_SLG	0.433	0.000
predicted_SO	0.755	-0.078

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.225 HR/AB=0.038

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, BvP AVG=0.250)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	0.3333	0.3529	0.6000	0.3333	0.0667	0.2667	0.0667	0.1333
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	3.000	1.000	11.000	0.1714	0.1892	0.2857	0.1714	0.0286	0.1714	0.0286	0.3143
season	0.20	18	-	63.000	13.000	4.000	1.000	11.000	4.000	4.000	15.000	0.2063	0.2500	0.3175	0.2064	0.0159	0.1746	0.0635	0.2381

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1730
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.2750
predicted_AVG	0.2512
predicted_BB	0.1730
predicted_H	0.8230
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1410
predicted_OBP	0.2750
predicted_R	0.4350
predicted_RBI	0.7040
predicted_SLG	0.4335
predicted_SO	0.7130

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2220	0.1730	0.1901	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5000	3.2750	3.3537	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2510	0.2512	0.2511	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2220	0.1730	0.1901	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7200	0.8230	0.7870	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1410	0.1336	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2750	0.2750	0.2750	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2220	0.4350	0.3604	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6100	0.7040	0.6711	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4330	0.4335	0.4333	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8330	0.7130	0.7550	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	3
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.206

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260506_SD@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	592206
playerID	592206
playerName	Nick Castellanos
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	SD
teamID	23

Fernando Tatis Jr. (665487) · BATTER · 2B · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 34

All-history rows before 20260507: 34

System season_avg: 0.2420

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2424

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.147	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.147	0.000	-0.147	0.000
predicted_3B	0.029	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_AB	3.882	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.882	4.000	0.118	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.217	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.242	0.000	-0.242	0.000
predicted_BB	0.412	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.412	0.000	-0.412	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_H	0.770	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.941	0.000	-0.941	0.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.265	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.313	0.000	-0.313	0.000
predicted_R	0.412	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.412	1.000	-0.412	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.353	0.000	-0.353	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.265	0.000	-0.265	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.322	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.295	0.000	-0.295	0.000
predicted_SO	1.088	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.088	0.000	-0.088	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.147	-
predicted_3B	0.029	-
predicted_AB	3.882	-
predicted_AVG	0.217	-
predicted_BB	0.412	-
predicted_H	0.770	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.265	-
predicted_R	0.412	-
predicted_RBI	0.100	-
predicted_SLG	0.322	-
predicted_SO	1.088	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.152	0.005
predicted_3B	0.095	0.066
predicted_AB	3.943	0.061
predicted_AVG	0.217	0.000
predicted_BB	0.325	-0.087
predicted_H	0.831	0.061
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.265	0.000
predicted_R	0.487	0.075
predicted_RBI	0.105	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.322	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.020	-0.068

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.94), rates preserved: AVG=0.211 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.882

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	0.2000	0.2381	0.3500	0.2000	0.0000	0.0500	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	9.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	9.000	0.2250	0.2727	0.3000	0.2250	0.0250	0.0750	0.2250
season	0.20	34	-	132.000	32.000	5.000	1.000	12.000	14.000	14.000	37.000	0.2424	0.3133	0.2955	0.2424	0.0909	0.1061	0.2803

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1540
predicted_3B	0.1300
predicted_AB	3.9760
predicted_AVG	0.2172
predicted_BB	0.2780
predicted_H	0.8640
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.2652
predicted_R	0.5270
predicted_RBI	0.1070
predicted_SLG	0.3216
predicted_SO	0.9830

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1470	0.1540	0.1516	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0290	0.1300	0.0947	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8820	3.9760	3.9431	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2170	0.2172	0.2171	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4120	0.2780	0.3249	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7700	0.8640	0.8311	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2650	0.2652	0.2651	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4120	0.5270	0.4868	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1000	0.1070	0.1046	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3220	0.3216	0.3217	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0880	0.9830	1.0198	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.242

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260506_SD@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	665487
playerID	665487
playerName	Fernando Tatis Jr.
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	SD
teamID	23

Ramón Laureano (657656) · BATTER · LF · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 31

All-history rows before 20260507: 31

System season_avg: 0.2380

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2377

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.129	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.129	0.000	-0.129	0.000
predicted_3B	0.065	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.065	0.000	-0.065	0.000
predicted_AB	3.935	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.935	2.000	0.065	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.174	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.238	0.000	0.012	0.250
predicted_BB	0.419	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.419	2.000	-0.419	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.600	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.935	0.000	0.065	1.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.161	0.000	-0.161	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.284	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.312	0.500	-0.062	-0.250
predicted_R	0.548	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.548	1.000	-0.548	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.330	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.613	0.000	-0.613	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.129	0.000	-0.129	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.337	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.426	0.000	-0.176	0.250
predicted_SO	1.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.290	1.000	-1.290	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.129	-
predicted_3B	0.065	-
predicted_AB	3.935	-
predicted_AVG	0.174	-
predicted_BB	0.419	-
predicted_H	0.600	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.284	-
predicted_R	0.548	-
predicted_RBI	0.330	-
predicted_SLG	0.337	-
predicted_SO	1.290	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.061	-0.068
predicted_3B	0.053	-0.012
predicted_AB	3.748	-0.187
predicted_AVG	0.174	0.000
predicted_BB	0.516	0.097
predicted_H	0.623	0.023
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.157	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.284	-0.000
predicted_R	0.534	-0.014
predicted_RBI	0.339	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.337	0.000
predicted_SO	1.374	0.084

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.94), rates preserved: AVG=0.158 HR/AB=0.040

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.935

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	7.000	0.1176	0.2500	0.2941	0.1177	0.0588	0.0588	0.1765	0.4118
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	8.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	6.000	15.000	0.2105	0.3111	0.3421	0.2105	0.0263	0.1053	0.1579	0.3947
season	0.20	31	-	122.000	29.000	4.000	2.000	5.000	19.000	17.000	13.000	40.000	0.2377	0.3116	0.4262	0.2377	0.0410	0.1557	0.1066	0.3279

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0240
predicted_3B	0.0460
predicted_AB	3.6470
predicted_AVG	0.1741
predicted_BB	0.5690
predicted_H	0.6350
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.1600
predicted_OBP	0.2837
predicted_R	0.5260
predicted_RBI	0.3440
predicted_SLG	0.3373
predicted_SO	1.4190

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1290	0.0240	0.0607	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0650	0.0460	0.0527	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9350	3.6470	3.7478	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1740	0.1741	0.1741	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4190	0.5690	0.5165	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6000	0.6350	0.6228	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1600	0.1565	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2840	0.2837	0.2838	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5480	0.5260	0.5337	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3300	0.3440	0.3391	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3370	0.3373	0.3372	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2900	1.4190	1.3739	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.238

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260506_SD@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	657656
playerID	657656
playerName	Ramón Laureano
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	SD
teamID	23

Xander Bogaerts (593428) · BATTER · SS · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 34

All-history rows before 20260507: 34

System season_avg: 0.2700

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2698

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.059	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.706	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.706	4.000	0.294	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.238	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.270	0.500	-0.270	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.471	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.471	1.000	-0.471	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.800	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.000	2.000	-1.000	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.176	1.000	-0.176	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.339	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.352	0.600	-0.352	-0.600
predicted_R	0.471	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.471	1.000	-0.471	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.510	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.588	2.000	-0.588	-2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.407	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.429	1.250	-0.429	-1.250
predicted_SO	0.618	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.618	0.000	0.382	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.059	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.706	-
predicted_AVG	0.238	-
predicted_BB	0.471	-
predicted_H	0.800	-
predicted_HR	0.190	-
predicted_OBP	0.339	-
predicted_R	0.471	-
predicted_RBI	0.510	-
predicted_SLG	0.407	-
predicted_SO	0.618	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.028	-0.031
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.592	-0.114
predicted_AVG	0.238	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.517	0.046
predicted_H	0.825	0.025
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.194	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.339	-0.000
predicted_R	0.501	0.030
predicted_RBI	0.523	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.407	0.000
predicted_SO	0.781	0.163

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.223 HR/AB=0.052

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	0.2353	0.3500	0.4118	0.2353	0.0588	0.1765	0.1765	0.2353
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	8.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	7.000	5.000	11.000	0.2222	0.3171	0.3889	0.2222	0.0556	0.1111	0.1389	0.3056
season	0.20	34	-	126.000	34.000	2.000	6.000	20.000	16.000	16.000	21.000	0.2698	0.3521	0.4286	0.2698	0.0476	0.1587	0.1270	0.1667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0110
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.5310
predicted_AVG	0.2376
predicted_BB	0.5420
predicted_H	0.8390
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1960
predicted_OBP	0.3389
predicted_R	0.5170
predicted_RBI	0.5300
predicted_SLG	0.4071
predicted_SO	0.8690

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0590	0.0110	0.0278	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7060	3.5310	3.5922	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2380	0.2376	0.2377	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4710	0.5420	0.5171	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8000	0.8390	0.8254	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1900	0.1960	0.1939	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3390	0.3389	0.3389	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4710	0.5170	0.5009	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5100	0.5300	0.5230	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4070	0.4071	0.4071	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6180	0.8690	0.7812	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.27

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260505_SD@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	593428
playerID	593428
playerName	Xander Bogaerts
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	SD
teamID	23

Ty France (664034) · BATTER · 1B · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 15

All-history rows before 20260507: 15

System season_avg: 0.2880

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2885

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.133	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_3B	0.067	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_AB	3.467	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.467	4.000	-0.467	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.300	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.288	0.500	0.045	-0.167
predicted_BB	0.133	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.900	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	2.000	0.000	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.330	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.327	0.500	0.173	0.000
predicted_R	0.533	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.533	0.000	-0.533	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.660	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.533	0.000	-0.533	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.511	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.538	0.500	-0.205	-0.167
predicted_SO	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.133	-
predicted_3B	0.067	-
predicted_AB	3.467	-
predicted_AVG	0.300	-
predicted_BB	0.133	-
predicted_H	0.900	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.330	-
predicted_R	0.533	-
predicted_RBI	0.660	-
predicted_SLG	0.511	-
predicted_SO	0.333	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.144	0.011
predicted_3B	0.112	0.045
predicted_AB	3.572	0.105
predicted_AVG	0.300	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.144	0.011
predicted_H	1.022	0.122
predicted_HBP	0.014	-
predicted_HR	0.106	0.016
predicted_OBP	0.330	-0.000
predicted_R	0.489	-0.044
predicted_RBI	0.748	0.088
predicted_SLG	0.511	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.289	-0.044

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.57), rates preserved: AVG=0.286 HR/AB=0.030

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	5.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	0.3158	0.3500	0.4737	0.3158	0.0000	0.2632	0.0526	0.0526
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	10.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	5.000	1.000	3.000	0.2857	0.3056	0.5429	0.2857	0.0571	0.2000	0.0286	0.0857
season	0.20	15	-	52.000	15.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	8.000	8.000	2.000	5.000	0.2885	0.3273	0.5385	0.2885	0.0577	0.1538	0.0385	0.0961

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1500
predicted_3B	0.1360
predicted_AB	3.6280
predicted_AVG	0.2998
predicted_BB	0.1500
predicted_H	1.0880
predicted_HBP	0.0140
predicted_HR	0.1140
predicted_OBP	0.3299
predicted_R	0.4650
predicted_RBI	0.7950
predicted_SLG	0.5109
predicted_SO	0.2650

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1330	0.1500	0.1441	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0670	0.1360	0.1119	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4670	3.6280	3.5716	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3000	0.2998	0.2999	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1330	0.1500	0.1441	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9000	1.0880	1.0222	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0140	0.0140	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.1140	0.1056	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3300	0.3299	0.3299	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5330	0.4650	0.4888	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6600	0.7950	0.7478	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5110	0.5109	0.5109	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3330	0.2650	0.2888	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.288

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260503_CHW@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	664034
playerID	664034
playerName	Ty France
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	SD
teamID	23

Miguel Andujar (609280) · BATTER · C · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 24

All-history rows before 20260507: 24

System season_avg: 0.3150

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3146

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_2B	0.292	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.292	0.000	-0.292
predicted_3B	0.083	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.083	0.000	-0.083
predicted_AB	3.708	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.708	4.000	0.292
predicted_AVG	0.306	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.315	0.000	-0.315
predicted_BB	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.125	0.000	-0.125
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.042	0.000	-0.042
predicted_H	1.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.167	0.000	-1.167
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.083	0.000	-0.083
predicted_OBP	0.318	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.344	0.000	-0.344
predicted_R	0.375	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.375	0.000	-0.375
predicted_RBI	0.470	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.417	0.000	-0.417
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.042	0.000	-0.042
predicted_SLG	0.578	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.506	0.000	-0.506
predicted_SO	0.625	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.625	0.000	-0.625

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.292	-
predicted_3B	0.083	-
predicted_AB	3.708	-
predicted_AVG	0.306	-
predicted_BB	0.125	-
predicted_H	1.040	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.318	-
predicted_R	0.375	-
predicted_RBI	0.470	-
predicted_SLG	0.578	-
predicted_SO	0.625	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.268	-0.024
predicted_3B	0.121	0.038
predicted_AB	3.837	0.129
predicted_AVG	0.306	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.083	-0.042
predicted_H	1.140	0.100
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.167	0.017
predicted_OBP	0.318	-0.000
predicted_R	0.388	0.013
predicted_RBI	0.518	0.048
predicted_SLG	0.578	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.533	-0.092

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.84), rates preserved: AVG=0.297 HR/AB=0.043

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, BvP AVG=0.667)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	2.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 24

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	0.3000	0.3000	0.6000	0.3000	0.0500	0.1000	0.0000	0.1000
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	12.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	8.000	4.000	1.000	5.000	0.3077	0.3250	0.5897	0.3077	0.0513	0.2051	0.0256	0.1282
season	0.20	24	-	89.000	28.000	7.000	2.000	2.000	10.000	9.000	3.000	15.000	0.3146	0.3441	0.5056	0.3146	0.0225	0.1124	0.0337	0.1685

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2550
predicted_3B	0.1410
predicted_AB	3.9070
predicted_AVG	0.3056
predicted_BB	0.0610
predicted_H	1.1940
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.1760
predicted_OBP	0.3176
predicted_R	0.3950
predicted_RBI	0.5440
predicted_SLG	0.5775
predicted_SO	0.4830

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2920	0.2550	0.2680	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0830	0.1410	0.1207	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7080	3.9070	3.8374	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3060	0.3056	0.3057	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1250	0.0610	0.0834	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0400	1.1940	1.1401	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1760	0.1669	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3180	0.3176	0.3177	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3750	0.3950	0.3880	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4700	0.5440	0.5181	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5780	0.5775	0.5777	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6250	0.4830	0.5327	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	24
Season rows before report date	24
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	24
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.315

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260506_SD@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	609280
playerID	609280
playerName	Miguel Andujar
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	SD
teamID	23

Michael King (650633) · PITCHER · Starter · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 7

All-history rows before 20260507: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.857	4.000	-0.857	-3.000
predicted_IP	4.100	4.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.600	6.000	-1.500	-1.900
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	5.571	5.000	-3.571	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 4.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	29.000	9.000	19.000	13.000	28.000	2.000	2.7931	1.1034	0.3103	0.6552	0.4483	0.9655	0.0690
last_10	0.35	7	39.200	13.000	27.000	18.000	39.000	3.000	2.9496	1.1345	0.3277	0.6807	0.4538	0.9832	0.0756
season	0.20	7	39.200	13.000	27.000	18.000	39.000	3.000	2.9496	1.1345	0.3277	0.6807	0.4538	0.9832	0.0756

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.5570
predicted_ER	1.8130
predicted_ERA	2.8792
predicted_H	3.7920
predicted_HR	0.4120
predicted_IP	5.2000
predicted_SO	5.5260
predicted_WHIP	1.1205

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	2.5570	2.0120	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	1.8130	1.5284	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.8792	2.8792	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	3.7920	3.8648	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.4120	0.2678	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.1000	5.2000	5.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	5.5260	4.2919	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1205	1.1205	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.1
H	4
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	2
HR	0
BF	21
Pitches	76

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	25
Pitching_ER	4
Pitching_ERA	2.95
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	6
Pitching_H	7
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	92
Pitching_R	4
Pitching_SO	5
Pitching_Strikes	52
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260502_CHW@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	650633
playerID	650633
playerName	Michael King
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	SD
teamID	23

Jason Adam (592094) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 11

All-history rows before 20260507: 11

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.182	0.000	0.818	1.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.845	1.000	0.355	0.200
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.455	0.000	0.545	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	1.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	1.6875	0.5625	0.1875	0.3750	0.1875	0.5625	0.1875
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	2.000	6.000	2.000	5.000	1.000	1.8621	0.8276	0.2069	0.6207	0.2069	0.5172	0.1035
season	0.20	11	10.000	2.000	6.000	2.000	5.000	1.000	1.8000	0.8000	0.2000	0.6000	0.2000	0.5000	0.1000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1970
predicted_ER	0.1970
predicted_ERA	1.7711
predicted_H	0.5060
predicted_HR	0.1410
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.5340
predicted_WHIP	0.7028

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1970	0.1280	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.1970	0.4780	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.7711	1.7711	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.5060	1.0289	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1410	0.0916	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.0000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.5340	0.6971	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.7028	0.7028	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.80
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	9
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_SD@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	592094
playerID	592094
playerName	Jason Adam
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SD
teamID	23

Mason Miller (695243) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 17

All-history rows before 20260507: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.006	1.000	0.094	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	2.000	2.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	7.000	3.6000	1.0000	0.4000	0.8000	0.2000	1.4000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	2.000	6.000	2.000	15.000	1.8000	0.8000	0.2000	0.6000	0.2000	1.5000
season	0.20	17	17.100	2.000	7.000	3.000	34.000	1.0385	0.5769	0.1154	0.4038	0.1731	1.9615

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1950
predicted_ER	0.2730
predicted_ERA	2.4577
predicted_H	0.6510
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.5470
predicted_WHIP	0.8454

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1950	0.1268	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2730	0.1775	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.4577	2.4577	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6510	0.4232	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.0000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.5470	1.3556	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.8454	0.8454	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.04
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_SD@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	695243
playerID	695243
playerName	Mason Miller
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SD
teamID	23

Bradgley Rodriguez (699134) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 15

All-history rows before 20260507: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.200	0.000	-0.200
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.960	1.000	0.040
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.800	0.000	-0.800

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	2.000	3.000	2.000	0.000	3.3750	0.9375	0.3750	0.5625	0.3750	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	2.000	7.000	5.000	5.000	1.8000	1.2000	0.2000	0.7000	0.5000	0.5000
season	0.20	15	17.200	3.000	13.000	5.000	12.000	1.5283	1.0189	0.1698	0.7359	0.2830	0.6793

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4270
predicted_ER	0.2910
predicted_ERA	2.4544
predicted_H	0.6880
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.3320
predicted_WHIP	1.0457

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4270	0.2776	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2910	0.1891	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.4544	2.4544	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6880	0.4472	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.3320	0.2158	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0457	1.0457	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	9

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.53
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	7
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	4
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_SD@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	699134
playerID	699134
playerName	Bradgley Rodriguez
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	SD
teamID	23

Adrian Morejon (670970) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 16

All-history rows before 20260507: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.750	0.000	2.250	3.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.075	2.000	-0.875	-1.800
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.562	4.000	0.438	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	7.100	3.000	5.000	3.000	12.000	1.000	3.6818	1.0909	0.4091	0.6818	0.4091	1.6364	0.1364
last_10	0.35	10	13.100	4.000	6.000	4.000	20.000	2.000	2.7000	0.7500	0.3000	0.4500	0.3000	1.5000	0.1500
season	0.20	16	20.000	12.000	21.000	5.000	25.000	2.000	5.4000	1.3000	0.6000	1.0500	0.2500	1.2500	0.1000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4520
predicted_ER	0.5450
predicted_ERA	3.6818
predicted_H	0.8990
predicted_HR	0.1780
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	2.0150
predicted_WHIP	1.0134

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4520	0.2938	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	0.5450	1.4042	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.6818	3.6818	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	0.8990	1.6343	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.1780	0.4657	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	2.0150	2.0098	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0134	1.0134	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	3
R	3
ER	3
BB	0
SO	2
HR	1
BF	6
Pitches	25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.40
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	26
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	4
Pitching_Strikes	20
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_SD@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	670970
playerID	670970
playerName	Adrian Morejon
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SD
teamID	23

20260507_TB@BOS

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "confidence": 0.5392620519168427, "home_win_probability": 0.5392620519168427, "away_win_probability": 0.46073794808315727, "predicted_score_text": "TB 4 - 5 BOS", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to final winner probability with starter-quality caps.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "predicted_score_text": "TB 3 - 4 BOS", "confidence": 0.5392620519168427, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score", "final_prediction_synced": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "TB 3 - 4 BOS", "winner": "BOS"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "TB 4 - 5 BOS", "winner": "BOS"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 1, "home_run_delta": 1, "total_run_delta": 2, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"}}

Away Team: TB

Ryan Vilade (668723) · BATTER · LF · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 11

All-history rows before 20260507: 11

System season_avg: 0.3120

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3125

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.091	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.909	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.909	2.000	0.091	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.312	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.312	0.000	-0.312	0.000
predicted_BB	0.273	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.273	1.000	0.727	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.830	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.909	0.000	-0.909	0.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.366	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.371	0.333	-0.121	-0.083
predicted_R	0.455	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.455	0.000	-0.455	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.900	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.727	0.000	-0.727	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.481	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.438	0.000	-0.438	0.000
predicted_SO	0.636	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.636	0.000	1.364	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.091	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.909	-
predicted_AVG	0.312	-
predicted_BB	0.273	-
predicted_H	0.830	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.366	-
predicted_R	0.455	-
predicted_RBI	0.900	-
predicted_SLG	0.481	-
predicted_SO	0.636	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.066	-0.025
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.875	-0.034
predicted_AVG	0.312	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.257	-0.016
predicted_H	0.870	0.040
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.139	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.366	0.000
predicted_R	0.389	-0.066
predicted_RBI	0.946	0.045
predicted_SLG	0.481	0.000
predicted_SO	0.640	0.004

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.91), rates preserved: AVG=0.299 HR/AB=0.048

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	0.2857	0.3333	0.5000	0.2857	0.0714	0.4286	0.0714	0.2143
last_10	0.35	10	-	29.000	10.000	1.000	1.000	8.000	5.000	3.000	7.000	0.3448	0.4062	0.4828	0.3448	0.0345	0.2759	0.1035	0.2414
season	0.20	11	-	32.000	10.000	1.000	1.000	8.000	5.000	3.000	7.000	0.3125	0.3714	0.4375	0.3125	0.0312	0.2500	0.0938	0.2188

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0520
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.8570
predicted_AVG	0.3117
predicted_BB	0.2490
predicted_H	0.8910
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1440
predicted_OBP	0.3664
predicted_R	0.3530
predicted_RBI	0.9700
predicted_SLG	0.4815
predicted_SO	0.6420

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0910	0.0520	0.0656	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.9090	2.8570	2.8752	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3120	0.3117	0.3118	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2730	0.2490	0.2574	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8300	0.8910	0.8697	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1440	0.1391	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3660	0.3664	0.3663	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4550	0.3530	0.3887	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.9000	0.9700	0.9455	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4810	0.4815	0.4813	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6360	0.6420	0.6399	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.312

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260506_TOR@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	668723
playerID	668723
playerName	Ryan Vilade
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	TB
teamID	27

Taylor Walls (670764) · BATTER · SS · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 24

All-history rows before 20260507: 24

System season_avg: 0.2050

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2055

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.042	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.042	2.000	-0.042	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.205	0.500	-0.205	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.417	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.417	1.000	0.583	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.042	0.000	-0.042	0.000
predicted_H	0.590	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.625	1.000	-0.625	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.362	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.310	0.667	-0.060	-0.417
predicted_R	0.458	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.458	0.000	-0.458	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.208	0.000	-0.208	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.308	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.247	0.500	-0.247	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.875	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.875	0.000	0.125	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.042	-
predicted_AVG	0.240	-
predicted_BB	0.417	-
predicted_H	0.590	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.362	-
predicted_R	0.458	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.308	-
predicted_SO	0.875	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.166	0.041
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.848	-0.194
predicted_AVG	0.240	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.484	0.067
predicted_H	0.634	0.044
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.362	-0.000
predicted_R	0.403	-0.055
predicted_RBI	0.288	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.308	0.000
predicted_SO	0.584	-0.291

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.04), rates preserved: AVG=0.208 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 24

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	0.000	0.2857	0.3750	0.3571	0.2857	0.1429	0.1429	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	-	25.000	5.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	7.000	7.000	0.2000	0.3750	0.2800	0.2000	0.0800	0.2800	0.2800
season	0.20	24	-	73.000	15.000	3.000	6.000	11.000	10.000	21.000	0.2055	0.3095	0.2466	0.2055	0.0822	0.1370	0.2877

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1880
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.7430
predicted_AVG	0.2397
predicted_BB	0.5200
predicted_H	0.6570
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.3619
predicted_R	0.3740
predicted_RBI	0.2980
predicted_SLG	0.3080
predicted_SO	0.4270

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1250	0.1880	0.1659	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0420	2.7430	2.8476	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2400	0.2397	0.2398	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4170	0.5200	0.4839	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5900	0.6570	0.6336	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3620	0.3619	0.3619	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4580	0.3740	0.4034	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.2980	0.2882	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3080	0.3080	0.3080	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8750	0.4270	0.5838	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	24
Season rows before report date	24
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	24
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.205

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260506_TOR@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	670764
playerID	670764
playerName	Taylor Walls
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	TB
teamID	27

Yandy Díaz (650490) · BATTER · DH · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 34

All-history rows before 20260507: 34

System season_avg: 0.3180

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3178

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.088	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.088	0.000	-0.088	0.000
predicted_3B	0.029	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_AB	3.794	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.794	4.000	0.206	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.279	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.318	0.250	-0.068	0.000
predicted_BB	0.382	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.382	0.000	-0.382	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.206	1.000	-0.206	0.000
predicted_HR	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.147	0.000	-0.147	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.322	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.401	0.250	-0.151	0.000
predicted_R	0.588	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.588	0.000	0.412	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.450	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.647	0.000	0.353	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.445	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.473	0.250	-0.223	0.000
predicted_SO	0.471	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.471	0.000	0.529	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.088	-
predicted_3B	0.029	-
predicted_AB	3.794	-
predicted_AVG	0.279	-
predicted_BB	0.382	-
predicted_H	1.000	-
predicted_HR	0.190	-
predicted_OBP	0.322	-
predicted_R	0.588	-
predicted_RBI	0.450	-
predicted_SLG	0.445	-
predicted_SO	0.471	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.042	-0.046
predicted_3B	0.014	-0.015
predicted_AB	3.671	-0.123
predicted_AVG	0.279	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.251	-0.131
predicted_H	1.003	0.003
predicted_HBP	0.064	-
predicted_HR	0.190	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.322	-0.000
predicted_R	0.618	0.030
predicted_RBI	0.448	-0.002
predicted_SLG	0.445	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.270	-0.201

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.264 HR/AB=0.050

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.2778	0.2778	0.4444	0.2778	0.0556	0.1111	0.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	9.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	7.000	3.000	2.000	0.2571	0.3333	0.4286	0.2571	0.0571	0.1143	0.0857	0.0571
season	0.20	34	-	129.000	41.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	22.000	20.000	13.000	16.000	0.3178	0.4014	0.4729	0.3178	0.0388	0.1705	0.1008	0.1240

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0170
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.6040
predicted_AVG	0.2786
predicted_BB	0.1810
predicted_H	1.0040
predicted_HBP	0.0640
predicted_HR	0.1900
predicted_OBP	0.3219
predicted_R	0.6340
predicted_RBI	0.4470
predicted_SLG	0.4446
predicted_SO	0.1610

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0880	0.0170	0.0418	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0290	0.0060	0.0140	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7940	3.6040	3.6705	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2790	0.2786	0.2787	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3820	0.1810	0.2513	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0000	1.0040	1.0026	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0640	0.0640	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1900	0.1900	0.1900	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3220	0.3219	0.3219	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5880	0.6340	0.6179	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4500	0.4470	0.4481	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4450	0.4446	0.4447	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4710	0.1610	0.2695	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.318

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260506_TOR@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	650490
playerID	650490
playerName	Yandy Díaz
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	TB
teamID	27

Junior Caminero (691406) · BATTER · 3B · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 35

All-history rows before 20260507: 35

System season_avg: 0.2540

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2537

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.086	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.086	0.000	-0.086	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.829	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.829	4.000	-0.829	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.213	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.254	0.000	-0.254	0.000
predicted_BB	0.543	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.543	0.000	0.457	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.057	0.000	-0.057	0.000
predicted_H	0.750	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.971	0.000	-0.971	0.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.257	0.000	-0.257	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.376	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.344	0.000	-0.094	0.250
predicted_R	0.600	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.600	0.000	-0.600	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.457	0.000	-0.457	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.288	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.478	0.000	-0.478	0.000
predicted_SO	0.771	3.000	3.000	Hitting_SO	0.771	1.000	2.229	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.086	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.829	-
predicted_AVG	0.213	-
predicted_BB	0.543	-
predicted_H	0.750	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.376	-
predicted_R	0.600	-
predicted_RBI	0.120	-
predicted_SLG	0.288	-
predicted_SO	0.771	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.040	-0.046
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.489	-0.340
predicted_AVG	0.213	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.770	0.227
predicted_H	0.719	-0.031
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.079	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.376	-0.000
predicted_R	0.559	-0.041
predicted_RBI	0.115	-0.005
predicted_SLG	0.288	0.000
predicted_SO	0.813	0.042

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.83), rates preserved: AVG=0.188 HR/AB=0.021

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.829

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	6.000	4.000	0.2000	0.4286	0.2000	0.2000	0.0000	0.0000	0.4000	0.2667
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	7.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	6.000	9.000	0.2059	0.3250	0.2941	0.2059	0.0294	0.0294	0.1765	0.2647
season	0.20	35	-	134.000	34.000	3.000	9.000	16.000	21.000	19.000	27.000	0.2537	0.3442	0.4776	0.2537	0.0672	0.1194	0.1418	0.2015

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0150
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.3060
predicted_AVG	0.2128
predicted_BB	0.8930
predicted_H	0.7030
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0780
predicted_OBP	0.3755
predicted_R	0.5370
predicted_RBI	0.1130
predicted_SLG	0.2885
predicted_SO	0.8360

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0860	0.0150	0.0398	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8290	3.3060	3.4891	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2130	0.2128	0.2129	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5430	0.8930	0.7705	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7500	0.7030	0.7194	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0780	0.0787	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3760	0.3755	0.3757	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6000	0.5370	0.5591	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1200	0.1130	0.1154	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2880	0.2885	0.2883	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7710	0.8360	0.8133	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.254

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260506_TOR@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	691406
playerID	691406
playerName	Junior Caminero
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	TB
teamID	27

Jonathan Aranda (666018) · BATTER · 1B · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 34

All-history rows before 20260507: 34

System season_avg: 0.2780

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2778

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.147	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.147	0.000	-0.147	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.706	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.706	1.000	-0.706	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.460	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.278	0.000	0.056	0.333
predicted_BB	0.559	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.559	2.000	0.441	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.550	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.029	0.000	-0.029	1.000
predicted_HR	0.070	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.206	0.000	0.794	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.520	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.373	0.750	0.127	-0.250
predicted_R	0.529	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.529	1.000	0.471	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.740	3.000	3.000	Hitting_RBI	0.853	0.000	2.147	3.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.563	1.333	1.333	Hitting_SLG	0.484	0.000	0.849	1.333
predicted_SO	1.029	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.029	0.000	-0.029	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.147	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.706	-
predicted_AVG	0.460	-
predicted_BB	0.559	-
predicted_H	1.550	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.520	-
predicted_R	0.529	-
predicted_RBI	0.740	-
predicted_SLG	0.563	-
predicted_SO	1.029	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.153	0.006
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.696	-0.010
predicted_AVG	0.460	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.432	-0.127
predicted_H	1.645	0.095
predicted_HBP	0.138	-
predicted_HR	0.073	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.520	-0.000
predicted_R	0.462	-0.067
predicted_RBI	0.786	0.046
predicted_SLG	0.563	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.894	-0.135

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.444 HR/AB=0.020

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	2.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	2.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	3.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	11.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	0.6111	0.6667	0.6667	0.6111	0.0000	0.2222	0.1111	0.1667
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	14.000	1.000	1.000	8.000	4.000	2.000	10.000	0.3684	0.4146	0.4737	0.3684	0.0263	0.2105	0.0526	0.2632
season	0.20	34	-	126.000	35.000	5.000	7.000	29.000	18.000	19.000	35.000	0.2778	0.3733	0.4841	0.2778	0.0556	0.2302	0.1508	0.2778

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1560
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.6910
predicted_AVG	0.4595
predicted_BB	0.3640
predicted_H	1.6960
predicted_HBP	0.1380
predicted_HR	0.0750
predicted_OBP	0.5198
predicted_R	0.4260
predicted_RBI	0.8110
predicted_SLG	0.5626
predicted_SO	0.8220

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1470	0.1560	0.1528	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7060	3.6910	3.6963	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.4600	0.4595	0.4597	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5590	0.3640	0.4323	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.5500	1.6960	1.6449	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1380	0.1380	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0750	0.0733	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.5200	0.5198	0.5199	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5290	0.4260	0.4620	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7400	0.8110	0.7862	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5630	0.5626	0.5627	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0290	0.8220	0.8944	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	3
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.278

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	1
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	1
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260506_TOR@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	666018
playerID	666018
playerName	Jonathan Aranda
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	TB
teamID	27

Nick Fortes (663743) · BATTER · C · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 22

All-history rows before 20260507: 22

System season_avg: 0.2730

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2727

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.227	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.227	0.000	-0.227	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.500	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	3.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.204	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.273	0.333	-0.273	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.620	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.955	1.000	-0.955	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.045	0.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.217	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.291	0.333	-0.291	-0.333
predicted_R	0.227	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.227	0.000	-0.227	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.318	0.000	-0.318	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.236	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.377	0.333	-0.377	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.545	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.545	0.000	-0.545	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.227	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.204	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.620	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.217	-
predicted_R	0.227	-
predicted_RBI	0.090	-
predicted_SLG	0.236	-
predicted_SO	0.545	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.130	-0.097
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.344	-0.156
predicted_AVG	0.204	0.000
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.651	0.031
predicted_HBP	0.053	-
predicted_HR	0.009	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.217	-0.000
predicted_R	0.130	-0.097
predicted_RBI	0.093	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.236	0.000
predicted_SO	0.492	-0.053

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.186 HR/AB=0.002

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.1875	0.1875	0.1875	0.1875	0.0000	0.0000	0.1250
last_10	0.35	10	-	32.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.1875	0.2121	0.2188	0.1875	0.0000	0.0312	0.1562
season	0.20	22	-	77.000	21.000	5.000	1.000	7.000	5.000	12.000	0.2727	0.2911	0.3766	0.2727	0.0130	0.0909	0.1558

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0780
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.2600
predicted_AVG	0.2045
predicted_BB	0.0000
predicted_H	0.6670
predicted_HBP	0.0530
predicted_HR	0.0080
predicted_OBP	0.2168
predicted_R	0.0780
predicted_RBI	0.0950
predicted_SLG	0.2363
predicted_SO	0.4630

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2270	0.0780	0.1301	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5000	3.2600	3.3440	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2040	0.2045	0.2043	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6200	0.6670	0.6506	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0530	0.0530	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0080	0.0087	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2170	0.2168	0.2169	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2270	0.0780	0.1301	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0900	0.0950	0.0932	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2360	0.2363	0.2362	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5450	0.4630	0.4917	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.273

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260506_TOR@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	663743
playerID	663743
playerName	Nick Fortes
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	TB
teamID	27

Ben Williamson (810938) · BATTER · 2B · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 25

All-history rows before 20260507: 25

System season_avg: 0.2410

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2410

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.208	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.042	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.040	0.000	-0.040	0.000
predicted_AB	3.458	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.320	3.000	-0.320	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.278	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.241	0.000	-0.241	0.000
predicted_BB	0.375	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.400	1.000	0.600	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.810	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.800	0.000	-0.800	0.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.345	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.323	0.250	-0.073	0.000
predicted_R	0.458	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.440	0.000	-0.440	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.260	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.440	0.000	-0.440	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.080	0.000	-0.080	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.324	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.325	0.000	-0.325	0.000
predicted_SO	0.875	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.840	1.000	1.160	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.208	-
predicted_3B	0.042	-
predicted_AB	3.458	-
predicted_AVG	0.278	-
predicted_BB	0.375	-
predicted_H	0.810	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.345	-
predicted_R	0.458	-
predicted_RBI	0.260	-
predicted_SLG	0.324	-
predicted_SO	0.875	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.122	-0.086
predicted_3B	0.042	0.000
predicted_AB	3.474	0.016
predicted_AVG	0.278	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.366	-0.009
predicted_H	0.912	0.102
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.345	0.000
predicted_R	0.346	-0.112
predicted_RBI	0.293	0.033
predicted_SLG	0.324	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.776	-0.099

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.47), rates preserved: AVG=0.263 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 24

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	0.2941	0.3684	0.2941	0.2941	0.0588	0.1177	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	10.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	3.000	8.000	0.2778	0.3333	0.3611	0.2778	0.1111	0.0833	0.2222
season	0.20	24	-	83.000	20.000	5.000	1.000	10.000	11.000	9.000	21.000	0.2410	0.3152	0.3253	0.2410	0.1205	0.1084	0.2530

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0760
predicted_3B	0.0420
predicted_AB	3.4820
predicted_AVG	0.2778
predicted_BB	0.3610
predicted_H	0.9670
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.3455
predicted_R	0.2860
predicted_RBI	0.3110
predicted_SLG	0.3238
predicted_SO	0.7230

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2080	0.0760	0.1222	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0420	0.0420	0.0420	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4580	3.4820	3.4736	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2780	0.2778	0.2779	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3750	0.3610	0.3659	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8100	0.9670	0.9121	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3450	0.3455	0.3453	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4580	0.2860	0.3462	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2600	0.3110	0.2932	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3240	0.3238	0.3239	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8750	0.7230	0.7762	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	25
Season rows before report date	25
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	24
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.241

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260506_TOR@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	810938
playerID	810938
playerName	Ben Williamson
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	TB
teamID	27

Cedric Mullins (656775) · BATTER · CF · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 28

All-history rows before 20260507: 28

System season_avg: 0.1250

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1250

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.071	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.071	0.000	0.929	1.000
predicted_3B	0.036	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.036	0.000	-0.036	0.000
predicted_AB	3.714	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.714	3.000	0.286	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.071	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.125	0.000	0.125	0.250
predicted_BB	0.214	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.214	0.000	-0.214	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_H	0.210	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.464	0.000	0.536	1.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.132	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.186	0.000	0.064	0.250
predicted_R	0.286	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.286	0.000	0.714	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.321	0.000	-0.321	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.214	0.000	-0.214	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.090	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.221	0.000	0.279	0.500
predicted_SO	0.821	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.821	2.000	0.179	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.071	-
predicted_3B	0.036	-
predicted_AB	3.714	-
predicted_AVG	0.071	-
predicted_BB	0.214	-
predicted_H	0.210	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.132	-
predicted_R	0.286	-
predicted_RBI	0.160	-
predicted_SLG	0.090	-
predicted_SO	0.821	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.034	-0.037
predicted_3B	0.017	-0.019
predicted_AB	3.609	-0.105
predicted_AVG	0.071	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.231	0.017
predicted_H	0.237	0.027
predicted_HBP	0.014	-
predicted_HR	0.013	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.132	-0.000
predicted_R	0.159	-0.127
predicted_RBI	0.177	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.090	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.786	-0.034

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.064 HR/AB=0.003

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	0.0556	0.1053	0.0556	0.0556	0.0000	0.0556	0.0556	0.2222
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	7.000	0.0588	0.1351	0.0588	0.0588	0.0000	0.0294	0.0882	0.2059
season	0.20	28	-	104.000	13.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	9.000	8.000	6.000	23.000	0.1250	0.1858	0.2212	0.1250	0.0192	0.0865	0.0577	0.2212

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0140
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.5530
predicted_AVG	0.0706
predicted_BB	0.2400
predicted_H	0.2510
predicted_HBP	0.0140
predicted_HR	0.0140
predicted_OBP	0.1318
predicted_R	0.0910
predicted_RBI	0.1870
predicted_SLG	0.0898
predicted_SO	0.7680

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0710	0.0140	0.0339	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0360	0.0070	0.0171	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7140	3.5530	3.6094	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.0710	0.0706	0.0707	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2140	0.2400	0.2309	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.2100	0.2510	0.2367	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0140	0.0140	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0140	0.0126	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1320	0.1318	0.1319	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2860	0.0910	0.1592	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1600	0.1870	0.1775	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.0900	0.0898	0.0899	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8210	0.7680	0.7865	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.125

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	1
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	1
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260505_TOR@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	656775
playerID	656775
playerName	Cedric Mullins
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	TB
teamID	27

Jonny DeLuca (676356) · BATTER · RF · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 17

All-history rows before 20260507: 17

System season_avg: 0.2620

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2623

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.235	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.235	1.000	-0.235	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.588	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.588	4.000	0.412	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.251	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.262	0.250	-0.012	0.000
predicted_BB	0.176	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.176	0.000	-0.176	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.820	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.941	1.000	0.059	0.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.272	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.297	0.250	-0.047	0.000
predicted_R	0.588	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.588	1.000	0.412	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.412	1.000	-0.412	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.176	0.000	-0.176	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.351	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.377	0.500	-0.127	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.647	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.647	1.000	0.353	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.235	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.588	-
predicted_AVG	0.251	-
predicted_BB	0.176	-
predicted_H	0.820	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.272	-
predicted_R	0.588	-
predicted_RBI	0.220	-
predicted_SLG	0.351	-
predicted_SO	0.647	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.297	0.062
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.630	0.042
predicted_AVG	0.251	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.132	-0.044
predicted_H	0.882	0.062
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.011	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.272	0.000
predicted_R	0.514	-0.074
predicted_RBI	0.235	0.015
predicted_SLG	0.351	0.000
predicted_SO	0.703	0.056

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.63), rates preserved: AVG=0.243 HR/AB=0.003

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	0.2632	0.2632	0.3684	0.2632	0.0000	0.0526	0.0000	0.2105
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	8.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	2.000	7.000	0.2286	0.2703	0.3143	0.2286	0.0000	0.0571	0.0571	0.2000
season	0.20	17	-	61.000	16.000	4.000	1.000	7.000	10.000	3.000	11.000	0.2623	0.2969	0.3770	0.2623	0.0164	0.1148	0.0492	0.1803

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3300
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.6530
predicted_AVG	0.2509
predicted_BB	0.1090
predicted_H	0.9160
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0120
predicted_OBP	0.2724
predicted_R	0.4750
predicted_RBI	0.2430
predicted_SLG	0.3512
predicted_SO	0.7330

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2350	0.3300	0.2968	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5880	3.6530	3.6303	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2510	0.2509	0.2509	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1760	0.1090	0.1324	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8200	0.9160	0.8824	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0120	0.0113	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2720	0.2724	0.2723	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5880	0.4750	0.5145	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2200	0.2430	0.2349	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3510	0.3512	0.3511	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6470	0.7330	0.7029	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.262

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF-RF
gameID	20260506_TOR@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	676356
playerID	676356
playerName	Jonny DeLuca
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	TB
teamID	27

Griffin Jax (643377) · PITCHER · Starter · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 13

All-history rows before 20260507: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	5.000	5.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.615	0.000	4.385	5.000
predicted_IP	3.200	3.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.862	2.200	2.338	1.000
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.077	2.000	3.923	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 3.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	8.000	3.000	4.000	4.000	9.000	2.000	3.3750	1.0000	0.3750	0.5000	0.5000	1.1250	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	13.000	3.000	7.000	7.000	14.000	2.000	2.0769	1.0769	0.2308	0.5385	0.5385	1.0769	0.1538
season	0.20	12	14.000	5.000	9.000	8.000	14.000	3.000	3.2143	1.2143	0.3571	0.6429	0.5714	1.0000	0.2143

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.7830
predicted_ER	0.4760
predicted_ERA	2.8885
predicted_H	0.8040
predicted_HR	0.3100
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.6070
predicted_WHIP	1.0698

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.7830	1.2089	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	5.0000	0.4760	2.0594	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.8885	2.8885	form_only
predicted_H	7.0000	0.8040	2.9726	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	2.0000	0.3100	0.9015	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	3.2000	1.1000	2.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	1.6070	2.7946	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0698	1.0698	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	3.2
H	7
R	5
ER	5
BB	2
SO	5
HR	2
BF	25
Pitches	99

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	10
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.14
Pitching_Flyouts	4
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.2
Pitching_Pitches	45
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	29
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260502_SF@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	643377
playerID	643377
playerName	Griffin Jax
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	TB
teamID	27

Bryan Baker (641329) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 16

All-history rows before 20260507: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_IP	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.887	1.000	1.113	1.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 2.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	0.000	2.000	0.000	5.000	0.000	0.0000	0.4615	0.0000	0.4615	0.0000	1.1539	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.200	1.000	4.000	2.000	9.000	0.000	1.0385	0.6923	0.1154	0.4615	0.2308	1.0385	0.0000
season	0.20	16	14.200	4.000	9.000	3.000	16.000	1.000	2.4545	0.8182	0.2727	0.6136	0.2046	1.0909	0.0682

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1220
predicted_ER	0.0950
predicted_ERA	0.8544
predicted_H	0.4920
predicted_HR	0.0140
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1010
predicted_WHIP	0.6136

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1220	0.0793	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.0950	0.0618	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.8544	0.8544	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.4920	0.3198	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0140	0.0091	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	2.0000	1.0000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.1010	0.7157	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.6136	0.6136	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	8

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.45
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_TOR@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	641329
playerID	641329
playerName	Bryan Baker
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TB
teamID	27

Ian Seymour (693855) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 16

All-history rows before 20260507: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.625	0.000	-0.625	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.944	1.000	0.156	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.250	1.000	-0.250	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	0.000	0.0000	1.2000	0.0000	0.6000	0.6000	0.8000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	11.000	4.000	9.000	7.000	12.000	1.000	3.2727	1.4545	0.3636	0.8182	0.6364	1.0909	0.0909
season	0.20	15	17.200	5.000	12.000	7.000	20.000	1.000	2.5472	1.0755	0.2830	0.6793	0.3962	1.1321	0.0566

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6100
predicted_ER	0.1960
predicted_ERA	1.6549
predicted_H	0.7380
predicted_HR	0.0460
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0330
predicted_WHIP	1.2642

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.6100	0.7465	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1960	0.1274	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.6549	1.6549	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7380	0.4797	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0460	0.0299	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.0000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0330	1.0214	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2642	1.2642	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.09
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_TOR@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	693855
playerID	693855
playerName	Ian Seymour
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TB
teamID	27

Cole Sulser (642121) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 15

All-history rows before 20260507: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.400	0.000	-0.400
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.233	1.000	-0.233
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	0.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	0.000	2.000	1.000	6.000	0.000	0.0000	0.5625	0.0000	0.3750	0.1875	1.1250	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	11.000	2.000	8.000	4.000	8.000	0.000	1.6364	1.0909	0.1818	0.7273	0.3636	0.7273	0.0000
season	0.20	15	19.200	6.000	19.000	8.000	15.000	1.000	2.7458	1.3729	0.3051	0.9661	0.4068	0.7627	0.0508

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3130
predicted_ER	0.1330
predicted_ERA	1.1219
predicted_H	0.6580
predicted_HR	0.0110
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9740
predicted_WHIP	0.9095

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3130	0.2035	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1330	0.0865	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.1219	1.1219	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6580	0.4277	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0110	0.0072	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.9740	0.6331	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9095	0.9095	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.75
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_TOR@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	642121
playerID	642121
playerName	Cole Sulser
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TB
teamID	27

Home Team: BOS

Caleb Durbin (702332) · BATTER · 3B · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 33

All-history rows before 20260507: 33

System season_avg: 0.1790

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1795

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.212	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.212	1.000	0.788	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.545	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.545	4.000	-0.545	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.216	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.179	0.250	0.154	0.083
predicted_BB	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_H	0.620	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.636	1.000	0.364	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.270	0.333	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.262	0.250	0.072	0.083
predicted_R	0.424	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.424	0.000	0.576	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.364	1.000	-0.364	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.121	1.000	-0.121	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.304	0.667	0.667	Hitting_SLG	0.265	0.500	0.402	0.167
predicted_SO	0.545	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.545	1.000	-0.545	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.212	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.545	-
predicted_AVG	0.216	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.620	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.270	-
predicted_R	0.424	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.304	-
predicted_SO	0.545	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.206	-0.006
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.655	0.110
predicted_AVG	0.216	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.287	-0.046
predicted_H	0.738	0.118
predicted_HBP	0.013	-
predicted_HR	0.037	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.270	-0.000
predicted_R	0.458	0.034
predicted_RBI	0.427	0.067
predicted_SLG	0.304	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.494	-0.051

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.65), rates preserved: AVG=0.202 HR/AB=0.010

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	0.2105	0.2500	0.2632	0.2105	0.0000	0.1053	0.0526	0.1053
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	9.000	2.000	1.000	6.000	6.000	3.000	5.000	0.2432	0.3000	0.3784	0.2432	0.0270	0.1622	0.0811	0.1351
season	0.20	33	-	117.000	21.000	7.000	1.000	12.000	14.000	11.000	18.000	0.1795	0.2615	0.2650	0.1795	0.0086	0.1026	0.0940	0.1538

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2030
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7140
predicted_AVG	0.2157
predicted_BB	0.2630
predicted_H	0.8010
predicted_HBP	0.0130
predicted_HR	0.0410
predicted_OBP	0.2698
predicted_R	0.4760
predicted_RBI	0.4630
predicted_SLG	0.3039
predicted_SO	0.4660

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2120	0.2030	0.2061	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5450	3.7140	3.6548	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2160	0.2157	0.2158	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.2630	0.2875	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6200	0.8010	0.7377	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0130	0.0130	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0410	0.0372	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2700	0.2698	0.2699	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4240	0.4760	0.4578	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.4630	0.4270	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3040	0.3039	0.3039	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5450	0.4660	0.4937	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.179

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260506_BOS@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	702332
playerID	702332
playerName	Caleb Durbin
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	BOS
teamID	4

Marcelo Mayer (691785) · BATTER · 2B · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 27

All-history rows before 20260507: 27

System season_avg: 0.2410

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2414

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.185	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.185	0.000	0.815	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.222	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.222	3.000	0.778	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.293	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.241	0.333	0.009	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.296	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.296	1.000	-0.296	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.820	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.778	1.000	0.222	0.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.037	0.000	-0.037	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.359	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.316	0.500	-0.066	-0.250
predicted_R	0.222	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.222	1.000	0.778	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.260	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.296	0.000	-0.296	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.074	0.000	-0.074	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.332	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.333	0.333	0.167	0.167
predicted_SO	0.704	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.704	2.000	0.296	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.185	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.222	-
predicted_AVG	0.293	-
predicted_BB	0.296	-
predicted_H	0.820	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.359	-
predicted_R	0.222	-
predicted_RBI	0.260	-
predicted_SLG	0.332	-
predicted_SO	0.704	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.136	-0.049
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.396	0.174
predicted_AVG	0.293	0.000
predicted_BB	0.247	-0.049
predicted_H	0.952	0.132
predicted_HBP	0.138	-
predicted_HR	0.009	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.359	-0.000
predicted_R	0.211	-0.011
predicted_RBI	0.303	0.043
predicted_SLG	0.332	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.901	0.197

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.40), rates preserved: AVG=0.280 HR/AB=0.003

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	0.2778	0.3500	0.2778	0.2778	0.0000	0.0556	0.0556	0.3889
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	12.000	2.000	0.000	5.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	0.3429	0.3947	0.4000	0.3429	0.0000	0.1429	0.0571	0.2000
season	0.20	27	-	87.000	21.000	5.000	1.000	8.000	6.000	8.000	19.000	0.2414	0.3163	0.3333	0.2414	0.0115	0.0920	0.0920	0.2184

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1100
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.4890
predicted_AVG	0.2933
predicted_BB	0.2210
predicted_H	1.0230
predicted_HBP	0.1380
predicted_HR	0.0080
predicted_OBP	0.3589
predicted_R	0.2050
predicted_RBI	0.3260
predicted_SLG	0.3317
predicted_SO	1.0070

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1850	0.1100	0.1363	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2220	3.4890	3.3956	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2930	0.2933	0.2932	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2960	0.2210	0.2472	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8200	1.0230	0.9519	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1380	0.1380	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0080	0.0087	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3590	0.3589	0.3589	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2220	0.2050	0.2109	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2600	0.3260	0.3029	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3320	0.3317	0.3318	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7040	1.0070	0.9009	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.241

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260506_BOS@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	691785
playerID	691785
playerName	Marcelo Mayer
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	BOS
teamID	4

Wilyer Abreu (677800) · BATTER · RF · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 36

All-history rows before 20260507: 36

System season_avg: 0.2990

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2993

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_3B	0.028	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_AB	3.806	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.806	5.000	-0.806	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.309	0.667	0.667	Hitting_AVG	0.299	0.000	0.367	0.667
predicted_BB	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_H	1.080	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	1.139	0.000	0.861	2.000
predicted_HR	0.140	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.139	0.000	0.861	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.452	0.750	0.750	Hitting_OBP	0.381	0.000	0.369	0.750
predicted_R	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.460	3.000	3.000	Hitting_RBI	0.444	0.000	2.556	3.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.453	1.667	1.667	Hitting_SLG	0.467	0.000	1.200	1.667
predicted_SO	0.861	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.861	3.000	0.139	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.028	-
predicted_AB	3.806	-
predicted_AVG	0.309	-
predicted_BB	0.500	-
predicted_H	1.080	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.452	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.460	-
predicted_SLG	0.453	-
predicted_SO	0.861	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.103	-0.064
predicted_3B	0.013	-0.015
predicted_AB	3.757	-0.049
predicted_AVG	0.309	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.819	0.319
predicted_H	1.127	0.047
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.148	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.452	-0.000
predicted_R	0.505	0.005
predicted_RBI	0.484	0.024
predicted_SLG	0.453	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.187	0.326

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.81), rates preserved: AVG=0.296 HR/AB=0.039

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, BvP AVG=0.400)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	3.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.806

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	6.000	9.000	0.3158	0.4800	0.4737	0.3158	0.0526	0.1579	0.3158	0.4737
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	11.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	10.000	11.000	0.3056	0.4565	0.4167	0.3056	0.0278	0.1111	0.2778	0.3056
season	0.20	36	-	137.000	41.000	6.000	1.000	5.000	16.000	18.000	18.000	31.000	0.2993	0.3806	0.4672	0.2993	0.0365	0.1168	0.1314	0.2263

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0690
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.7310
predicted_AVG	0.3089
predicted_BB	0.9910
predicted_H	1.1530
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1520
predicted_OBP	0.4519
predicted_R	0.5080
predicted_RBI	0.4970
predicted_SLG	0.4525
predicted_SO	1.3630

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.0690	0.1033	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0280	0.0050	0.0130	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8060	3.7310	3.7572	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3090	0.3089	0.3089	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5000	0.9910	0.8192	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0800	1.1530	1.1275	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1520	0.1478	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4520	0.4519	0.4519	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.5080	0.5052	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4600	0.4970	0.4840	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4530	0.4525	0.4527	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8610	1.3630	1.1873	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	3
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.299

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260506_BOS@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	677800
playerID	677800
playerName	Wilyer Abreu
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	BOS
teamID	4

Jarren Duran (680776) · BATTER · LF · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 30

All-history rows before 20260507: 30

System season_avg: 0.1940

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1935

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.133	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.133	3.000	-0.133	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.225	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.194	0.000	-0.194	0.000
predicted_BB	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	2.000	-0.333	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.870	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.800	0.000	-0.800	0.000
predicted_HR	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.301	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.259	0.400	-0.259	-0.400
predicted_R	0.600	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.600	0.000	-0.600	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.650	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.600	0.000	-0.600	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.233	1.000	-0.233	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.447	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.331	0.000	-0.331	0.000
predicted_SO	1.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.167	2.000	-1.167	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.133	-
predicted_AVG	0.225	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.870	-
predicted_HR	0.280	-
predicted_OBP	0.301	-
predicted_R	0.600	-
predicted_RBI	0.650	-
predicted_SLG	0.447	-
predicted_SO	1.167	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.081	-0.086
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.272	0.139
predicted_AVG	0.225	0.000
predicted_BB	0.425	0.092
predicted_H	0.940	0.070
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.299	0.019
predicted_OBP	0.301	0.000
predicted_R	0.542	-0.058
predicted_RBI	0.698	0.048
predicted_SLG	0.447	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.380	0.213

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.27), rates preserved: AVG=0.220 HR/AB=0.070

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 4.133

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	22.000	6.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	9.000	0.2727	0.3600	0.5455	0.2727	0.0909	0.1818	0.1364	0.4091
last_10	0.35	10	-	44.000	8.000	0.000	3.000	7.000	6.000	4.000	13.000	0.1818	0.2500	0.3864	0.1818	0.0682	0.1591	0.0909	0.2954
season	0.20	30	-	124.000	24.000	5.000	4.000	18.000	18.000	10.000	35.000	0.1935	0.2593	0.3306	0.1935	0.0323	0.1452	0.0806	0.2823

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0350
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.3470
predicted_AVG	0.2250
predicted_BB	0.4750
predicted_H	0.9780
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.3100
predicted_OBP	0.3014
predicted_R	0.5110
predicted_RBI	0.7240
predicted_SLG	0.4468
predicted_SO	1.4950

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.0350	0.0812	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1330	4.3470	4.2721	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2250	0.2250	0.2250	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.4750	0.4253	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8700	0.9780	0.9402	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2800	0.3100	0.2995	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3010	0.3014	0.3013	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6000	0.5110	0.5422	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6500	0.7240	0.6981	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4470	0.4468	0.4469	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1670	1.4950	1.3802	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.194

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	1
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260506_BOS@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	680776
playerID	680776
playerName	Jarren Duran
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	BOS
teamID	4

Willson Contreras (575929) · BATTER · 1B · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 36

All-history rows before 20260507: 36

System season_avg: 0.2640

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2636

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.583	2.000	2.000	Hitting_AB	3.583	3.000	-1.583	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.275	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.264	0.000	-0.264	0.000
predicted_BB	0.500	2.000	2.000	Hitting_BB	0.500	1.000	1.500	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.900	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.944	0.000	-0.944	0.000
predicted_HR	0.210	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.374	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.376	0.200	0.124	0.300
predicted_R	0.528	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.528	0.000	-0.528	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.530	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.639	1.000	-0.639	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.517	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.481	0.000	-0.481	0.000
predicted_SO	1.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.250	3.000	-1.250	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.583	-
predicted_AVG	0.275	-
predicted_BB	0.500	-
predicted_H	0.900	-
predicted_HR	0.210	-
predicted_OBP	0.374	-
predicted_R	0.528	-
predicted_RBI	0.530	-
predicted_SLG	0.517	-
predicted_SO	1.250	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.157	0.046
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.673	0.090
predicted_AVG	0.275	0.000
predicted_BB	0.586	0.086
predicted_H	0.981	0.081
predicted_HBP	0.111	-
predicted_HR	0.230	0.020
predicted_OBP	0.374	0.000
predicted_R	0.588	0.060
predicted_RBI	0.581	0.051
predicted_SLG	0.517	0.000
predicted_SO	1.282	0.032

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.67), rates preserved: AVG=0.267 HR/AB=0.062

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-2.000
BB	2.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	7.000	0.2632	0.3600	0.4737	0.2632	0.0526	0.1579	0.2105	0.3684
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	11.000	2.000	3.000	6.000	7.000	5.000	12.000	0.2973	0.3913	0.5946	0.2973	0.0811	0.1622	0.1351	0.3243
season	0.20	36	-	129.000	34.000	4.000	8.000	23.000	19.000	18.000	45.000	0.2636	0.3758	0.4806	0.2636	0.0620	0.1783	0.1395	0.3488

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1820
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7220
predicted_AVG	0.2752
predicted_BB	0.6320
predicted_H	1.0240
predicted_HBP	0.1110
predicted_HR	0.2400
predicted_OBP	0.3741
predicted_R	0.6200
predicted_RBI	0.6080
predicted_SLG	0.5174
predicted_SO	1.2990

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1110	0.1820	0.1572	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5830	3.7220	3.6734	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2750	0.2752	0.2751	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5000	0.6320	0.5858	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9000	1.0240	0.9806	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1110	0.1110	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2100	0.2400	0.2295	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3740	0.3741	0.3741	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5280	0.6200	0.5878	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5300	0.6080	0.5807	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5170	0.5174	0.5173	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2500	1.2990	1.2818	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.264

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260506_BOS@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	575929
playerID	575929
playerName	Willson Contreras
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	BOS
teamID	4

Trevor Story (596115) · BATTER · SS · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 35

All-history rows before 20260507: 35

System season_avg: 0.2030

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2028

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.171	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.171	0.000	-0.171	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.086	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.086	4.000	-0.086	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.233	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.203	0.000	0.297	0.500
predicted_BB	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.870	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.829	0.000	1.171	2.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.057	0.000	-0.057	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.275	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.242	0.000	0.258	0.500
predicted_R	0.371	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.371	0.000	0.629	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.514	0.000	-0.514	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.086	0.000	-0.086	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.258	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.287	0.000	0.213	0.500
predicted_SO	1.343	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.343	2.000	-0.343	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.171	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.086	-
predicted_AVG	0.233	-
predicted_BB	0.200	-
predicted_H	0.870	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.275	-
predicted_R	0.371	-
predicted_RBI	0.200	-
predicted_SLG	0.258	-
predicted_SO	1.343	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.105	-0.066
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.122	0.036
predicted_AVG	0.233	0.000
predicted_BB	0.142	-0.058
predicted_H	0.932	0.062
predicted_HBP	0.130	-
predicted_HR	0.011	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.275	-0.000
predicted_R	0.386	0.015
predicted_RBI	0.218	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.258	0.000
predicted_SO	1.327	-0.016

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.12), rates preserved: AVG=0.226 HR/AB=0.003

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 4.086

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	0.000	7.000	0.2381	0.2727	0.2381	0.2381	0.0000	0.0476	0.0000	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	41.000	10.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	12.000	0.2439	0.2955	0.2683	0.2439	0.0000	0.0244	0.0488	0.2927
season	0.20	35	-	143.000	29.000	6.000	2.000	18.000	13.000	7.000	47.000	0.2028	0.2418	0.2867	0.2028	0.0140	0.1259	0.0490	0.3287

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0700
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.1420
predicted_AVG	0.2331
predicted_BB	0.1110
predicted_H	0.9650
predicted_HBP	0.1300
predicted_HR	0.0120
predicted_OBP	0.2745
predicted_R	0.3940
predicted_RBI	0.2280
predicted_SLG	0.2584
predicted_SO	1.3180

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1710	0.0700	0.1053	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0860	4.1420	4.1224	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2330	0.2331	0.2331	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2000	0.1110	0.1421	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8700	0.9650	0.9317	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1300	0.1300	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0120	0.0113	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2750	0.2745	0.2747	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3710	0.3940	0.3860	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2000	0.2280	0.2182	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2580	0.2584	0.2583	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3430	1.3180	1.3268	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.203

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260506_BOS@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	596115
playerID	596115
playerName	Trevor Story
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	BOS
teamID	4

Masataka Yoshida (807799) · BATTER · DH · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 14

All-history rows before 20260507: 14

System season_avg: 0.2860

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2857

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.214	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.214	0.000	-0.214	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.500	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	4.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.253	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.286	0.500	0.048	-0.167
predicted_BB	0.571	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.571	0.000	-0.571	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.810	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	2.000	0.000	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.299	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.397	0.500	0.103	0.000
predicted_R	0.429	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.429	1.000	0.571	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.080	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	0.286	0.000	1.714	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.275	1.333	1.333	Hitting_SLG	0.347	0.500	0.986	0.833
predicted_SO	0.429	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.429	1.000	-0.429	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.214	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.253	-
predicted_BB	0.571	-
predicted_H	0.810	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.299	-
predicted_R	0.429	-
predicted_RBI	0.080	-
predicted_SLG	0.275	-
predicted_SO	0.429	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.127	-0.087
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.656	0.156
predicted_AVG	0.253	0.000
predicted_BB	0.346	-0.225
predicted_H	0.899	0.089
predicted_HBP	0.050	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.299	0.000
predicted_R	0.402	-0.027
predicted_RBI	0.090	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.275	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.437	0.008

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.66), rates preserved: AVG=0.246 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	0.2105	0.2105	0.2105	0.2105	0.0000	0.0000	0.1053
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	11.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	3.000	5.000	0.2895	0.3571	0.3158	0.2895	0.0263	0.0790	0.1316
season	0.20	14	-	49.000	14.000	3.000	4.000	6.000	8.000	6.000	0.2857	0.3966	0.3469	0.2857	0.0816	0.1633	0.1225

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0800
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7400
predicted_AVG	0.2532
predicted_BB	0.2250
predicted_H	0.9470
predicted_HBP	0.0500
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.2990
predicted_R	0.3870
predicted_RBI	0.0960
predicted_SLG	0.2746
predicted_SO	0.4410

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2140	0.0800	0.1269	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5000	3.7400	3.6560	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2530	0.2532	0.2531	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5710	0.2250	0.3461	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8100	0.9470	0.8991	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0500	0.0500	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2990	0.2990	0.2990	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4290	0.3870	0.4017	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0800	0.0960	0.0904	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2750	0.2746	0.2747	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4290	0.4410	0.4368	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.286

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260506_BOS@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	807799
playerID	807799
playerName	Masataka Yoshida
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	BOS
teamID	4

Connor Wong (657136) · BATTER · C · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 14

All-history rows before 20260507: 14

System season_avg: 0.2560

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2558

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.357	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.357	0.000	-0.357	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.071	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.071	3.000	0.929	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.196	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.256	0.333	-0.256	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.490	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.786	1.000	-0.786	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.323	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.347	0.500	-0.347	-0.500
predicted_R	0.214	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.214	0.000	-0.214	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.470	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.429	1.000	-0.429	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.268	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.372	0.333	-0.372	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.500	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.500	1.000	1.500	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.357	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.071	-
predicted_AVG	0.196	-
predicted_BB	0.286	-
predicted_H	0.490	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.323	-
predicted_R	0.214	-
predicted_RBI	0.470	-
predicted_SLG	0.268	-
predicted_SO	0.500	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.277	-0.080
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.196	0.125
predicted_AVG	0.196	0.000
predicted_BB	0.401	0.115
predicted_H	0.588	0.098
predicted_HBP	0.152	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.323	0.000
predicted_R	0.286	0.072
predicted_RBI	0.564	0.094
predicted_SLG	0.268	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.449	-0.051

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.20), rates preserved: AVG=0.184 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	0.1765	0.3333	0.2353	0.1765	0.2353	0.1765	0.1177
last_10	0.35	10	-	32.000	6.000	2.000	5.000	3.000	4.000	4.000	0.1875	0.2973	0.2500	0.1875	0.1562	0.1250	0.1250
season	0.20	14	-	43.000	11.000	5.000	6.000	3.000	4.000	7.000	0.2558	0.3469	0.3721	0.2558	0.1395	0.0930	0.1628

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2340
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.2640
predicted_AVG	0.1962
predicted_BB	0.4630
predicted_H	0.6400
predicted_HBP	0.1520
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.3234
predicted_R	0.3250
predicted_RBI	0.6150
predicted_SLG	0.2678
predicted_SO	0.4220

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3570	0.2340	0.2771	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0710	3.2640	3.1965	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1960	0.1962	0.1961	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2860	0.4630	0.4011	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4900	0.6400	0.5875	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1520	0.1520	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3230	0.3234	0.3233	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2140	0.3250	0.2862	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4700	0.6150	0.5642	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2680	0.2678	0.2679	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5000	0.4220	0.4493	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.256

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260505_BOS@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	657136
playerID	657136
playerName	Connor Wong
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	BOS
teamID	4

Ceddanne Rafaela (678882) · BATTER · CF · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 32

All-history rows before 20260507: 32

System season_avg: 0.2700

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2696

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_3B	0.062	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_AB	3.594	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.594	2.000	0.406	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.303	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.270	0.000	-0.270	0.000
predicted_BB	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.250	2.000	-0.250	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.094	0.000	-0.094	0.000
predicted_H	0.960	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.969	0.000	-0.969	0.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.380	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.344	0.500	-0.344	-0.500
predicted_R	0.469	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.469	1.000	-0.469	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.520	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.062	1.000	-0.062	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.465	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.391	0.000	-0.391	0.000
predicted_SO	0.906	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.906	1.000	0.094	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-
predicted_3B	0.062	-
predicted_AB	3.594	-
predicted_AVG	0.303	-
predicted_BB	0.250	-
predicted_H	0.960	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.380	-
predicted_R	0.469	-
predicted_RBI	0.520	-
predicted_SLG	0.465	-
predicted_SO	0.906	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.084	-0.041
predicted_3B	0.075	0.013
predicted_AB	3.805	0.211
predicted_AVG	0.303	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.305	0.055
predicted_H	1.107	0.147
predicted_HBP	0.157	-
predicted_HR	0.127	0.017
predicted_OBP	0.380	0.000
predicted_R	0.536	0.067
predicted_RBI	0.598	0.078
predicted_SLG	0.465	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.978	0.072

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.81), rates preserved: AVG=0.291 HR/AB=0.033

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	2.000	5.000	0.3000	0.3913	0.4500	0.3000	0.0500	0.2000	0.1000	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	13.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	6.000	6.000	3.000	11.000	0.3250	0.3864	0.5250	0.3250	0.0250	0.1500	0.0750	0.2750
season	0.20	32	-	115.000	31.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	12.000	15.000	8.000	29.000	0.2696	0.3438	0.3913	0.2696	0.0174	0.1043	0.0696	0.2522

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0620
predicted_3B	0.0820
predicted_AB	3.9190
predicted_AVG	0.3027
predicted_BB	0.3340
predicted_H	1.1860
predicted_HBP	0.1570
predicted_HR	0.1360
predicted_OBP	0.3801
predicted_R	0.5720
predicted_RBI	0.6400
predicted_SLG	0.4645
predicted_SO	1.0160

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1250	0.0620	0.0840	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0620	0.0820	0.0750	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5940	3.9190	3.8053	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3030	0.3027	0.3028	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2500	0.3340	0.3046	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9600	1.1860	1.1069	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1570	0.1570	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1360	0.1269	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3800	0.3801	0.3801	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4690	0.5720	0.5359	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5200	0.6400	0.5980	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4650	0.4645	0.4647	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9060	1.0160	0.9775	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.27

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260506_BOS@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	678882
playerID	678882
playerName	Ceddanne Rafaela
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	BOS
teamID	4

Jake Bennett (687562) · PITCHER · Starter · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 1

All-history rows before 20260507: 1

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_IP	3.100	3.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.000	5.000	-1.900	-1.900
predicted_SO	6.000	6.000	-	Pitching_SO	3.000	3.000	3.000	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 3.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	1	5.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.8000	1.4000	0.2000	1.0000	0.4000	0.6000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	1	5.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.8000	1.4000	0.2000	1.0000	0.4000	0.6000	0.2000
season	0.20	1	5.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.8000	1.4000	0.2000	1.0000	0.4000	0.6000	0.2000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.0000
predicted_ER	1.0000
predicted_ERA	1.8000
predicted_H	5.0000
predicted_HR	1.0000
predicted_IP	5.0000
predicted_SO	3.0000
predicted_WHIP	1.4000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	4.0000	2.0000	2.7000	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	1.0000	1.3500	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.8000	1.8000	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	5.0000	3.9500	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	1.0000	0.6500	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	3.1000	5.0000	4.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	6.0000	3.0000	4.0500	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4000	1.4000	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	3.1
H	2
R	2
ER	2
BB	4
SO	6
HR	0
BF	18
Pitches	80

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	20
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	1.80
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	7
Pitching_H	5
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.0
Pitching_Pitches	85
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	58
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260501_HOU@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	687562
playerID	687562
playerName	Jake Bennett
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	BOS
teamID	4

Aroldis Chapman (547973) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 12

All-history rows before 20260507: 12

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.083	0.000	1.917	2.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.933	1.000	0.167	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.167	1.000	-0.167	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	0.000	3.000	0.000	7.000	0.0000	0.6429	0.0000	0.6429	0.0000	1.5000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	1.000	7.000	3.000	13.000	0.9310	1.0345	0.1035	0.7241	0.3103	1.3448
season	0.20	12	11.200	1.000	7.000	3.000	14.000	0.7714	0.8571	0.0857	0.6000	0.2571	1.2000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1600
predicted_ER	0.0530
predicted_ERA	0.4801
predicted_H	0.6630
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.3860
predicted_WHIP	0.8228

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.1600	0.4540	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.0530	0.7344	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.4801	0.4801	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.6630	1.1309	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0000	0.3500	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.0000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.3860	1.2509	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.8228	0.8228	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	2
R	2
ER	2
BB	1
SO	1
HR	1
BF	6
Pitches	22

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	3
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.77
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_BOS@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	547973
playerID	547973
playerName	Aroldis Chapman
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BOS
teamID	4

Greg Weissert (669711) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 16

All-history rows before 20260507: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.756	1.000	0.344	0.100
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.125	0.000	0.875	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	3.000	8.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	5.4000	1.6000	0.6000	1.6000	0.0000	0.6000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	3.000	11.000	2.000	8.000	1.000	2.8929	1.3929	0.3214	1.1786	0.2143	0.8571	0.1071
season	0.20	16	14.200	8.000	17.000	4.000	18.000	4.000	4.9091	1.4318	0.5454	1.1591	0.2727	1.2273	0.2727

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1300
predicted_ER	0.4920
predicted_ERA	4.4243
predicted_H	1.3640
predicted_HR	0.1820
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8150
predicted_WHIP	1.4939

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1300	0.0845	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4920	0.3198	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.4243	4.4243	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.3640	0.8866	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1820	0.1183	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.0000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.8150	1.2297	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4939	1.4939	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.91
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_BOS@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	669711
playerID	669711
playerName	Greg Weissert
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BOS
teamID	4

Garrett Whitlock (676477) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 14

All-history rows before 20260507: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.429	2.000	-0.429	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.007	1.000	-0.007	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.214	2.000	-1.214	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	4.000	8.000	1.000	5.000	1.000	6.7500	1.6875	0.7500	1.5000	0.1875	0.9375	0.1875
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	5.000	10.000	2.000	11.000	2.000	4.3548	1.1613	0.4839	0.9677	0.1935	1.0645	0.1935
season	0.20	14	14.100	6.000	13.000	6.000	17.000	2.000	3.7674	1.3256	0.4186	0.9070	0.4186	1.1861	0.1395

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2360
predicted_ER	0.5910
predicted_ERA	5.3152
predicted_H	1.1950
predicted_HR	0.1800
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0320
predicted_WHIP	1.4309

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2360	0.1534	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5910	0.3841	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.3152	5.3152	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.1950	0.7768	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1800	0.1170	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.0320	0.6708	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4309	1.4309	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	2
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	3.77
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	26
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	15
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_BOS@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	676477
playerID	676477
playerName	Garrett Whitlock
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BOS
teamID	4

Jovani Morán (663558) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 11

All-history rows before 20260507: 11

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.636	2.000	-0.636	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.700	1.000	-0.700	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.818	3.000	-0.818	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 10

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	10.000	4.000	8.000	6.000	8.000	2.000	3.6000	1.4000	0.4000	0.8000	0.6000	0.8000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	20.100	6.000	12.000	11.000	20.000	3.000	2.6557	1.1311	0.2951	0.5902	0.5410	0.9836	0.1475
season	0.20	10	20.100	6.000	12.000	11.000	20.000	3.000	2.6557	1.1311	0.2951	0.5902	0.5410	0.9836	0.1475

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.1350
predicted_ER	0.6850
predicted_ERA	3.0806
predicted_H	1.3690
predicted_HR	0.3420
predicted_IP	2.0000
predicted_SO	1.8020
predicted_WHIP	1.2521

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	1.1350	0.7378	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.6850	0.4453	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.0806	3.0806	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.3690	0.8899	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.3420	0.2223	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	2.0000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.8020	1.5213	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2521	1.2521	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	10
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	10

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	8
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	3.10
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	38
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	21
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_BOS@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	663558
playerID	663558
playerName	Jovani Morán
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	BOS
teamID	4

Zack Kelly (677161) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 13

All-history rows before 20260507: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.385	0.000	-0.385
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.908	1.000	0.092
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.923	2.000	1.077

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	1.000	4.000	5.000	6.000	0.000	1.9286	1.9286	0.2143	0.8571	1.0714	1.2857	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	11.000	4.000	9.000	6.000	11.000	1.000	3.2727	1.3636	0.3636	0.8182	0.5454	1.0000	0.0909
season	0.20	13	13.200	5.000	10.000	6.000	12.000	1.000	3.2927	1.1707	0.3659	0.7317	0.4390	0.8780	0.0732

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.7610
predicted_ER	0.2970
predicted_ERA	2.6719
predicted_H	0.8180
predicted_HR	0.0460
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1040
predicted_WHIP	1.5793

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.7610	0.4947	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2970	0.1930	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.6719	2.6719	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8180	0.5317	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0460	0.0299	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.1040	1.4176	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5793	1.5793	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.29
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	25
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_BOS@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	677161
playerID	677161
playerName	Zack Kelly
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BOS
teamID	4

20260507_TEX@NYY

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 6, "confidence": 0.54, "home_win_probability": 0.54, "away_win_probability": 0.45999999999999996, "predicted_score_text": "TEX 2 - 6 NYY", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to final winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "predicted_score_text": "TEX 4 - 5 NYY", "confidence": 0.54, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score", "final_prediction_synced": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "TEX 4 - 5 NYY", "winner": "NYY"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "TEX 2 - 6 NYY", "winner": "NYY"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": -2, "home_run_delta": 1, "total_run_delta": -1, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"}}

Away Team: TEX

Justin Foscue (679822) · BATTER · 2B · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 0

All-history rows before 20260507: 0

System season_avg: 0.0000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): -

Diff (system - data): -

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	-	-	-	-
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	-	-	-	-
predicted_AB	0.000	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	-	-	-	-
predicted_AVG	0.000	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	-	-	-	-
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	-	-	-	-
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	-	-	-	-
predicted_H	0.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	-	-	-	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	-	-	-	-
predicted_OBP	0.000	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	-	-	-	-
predicted_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	-	-	-	-
predicted_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	-	-	-	-
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	-	-	-	-
predicted_SLG	0.000	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	-	-	-	-
predicted_SO	0.000	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	-	-	-	-

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw XGBoost model output

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	0.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.000	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.000	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.000	-
predicted_SLG	0.000	-
predicted_SO	0.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.473	2.473
predicted_AVG	0.000	0.000
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.000	0.000
predicted_R	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.000	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.47), rates preserved: AVG=0.000 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 0

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Total PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
last_10	0.35	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
season	0.20	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.8040
predicted_BB	0.0000
predicted_H	0.0000
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_R	0.0000
predicted_RBI	0.0000
predicted_SO	0.0000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	0.0000	3.8040	2.4726	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.0000	-	0.0000	model_only
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.0000	-	0.0000	model_only
predicted_R	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.0000	-	0.0000	model_only
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	0
Season rows before report date	0
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	0
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.0

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

No historical data found for this player before report date.

Evan Carter (694497) · BATTER · CF · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 31

All-history rows before 20260507: 31

System season_avg: 0.1900

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1900

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.161	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.161	0.000	-0.161	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.226	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.226	4.000	-0.226	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.115	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.190	0.250	-0.190	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.516	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.516	0.000	0.484	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.613	1.000	-0.613	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.129	1.000	-0.129	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.246	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.305	0.250	-0.055	0.000
predicted_R	0.387	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.387	1.000	-0.387	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.355	2.000	-0.355	-2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.161	0.000	-0.161	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.303	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.360	1.000	-0.360	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.935	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.935	2.000	-0.935	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.161	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.226	-
predicted_AVG	0.115	-
predicted_BB	0.516	-
predicted_H	0.320	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.246	-
predicted_R	0.387	-
predicted_RBI	0.280	-
predicted_SLG	0.303	-
predicted_SO	0.935	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.157	-0.004
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.203	-0.023
predicted_AVG	0.115	0.000
predicted_BB	0.511	-0.005
predicted_H	0.351	0.031
predicted_HBP	0.045	-
predicted_HR	0.142	0.012
predicted_OBP	0.246	-0.000
predicted_R	0.450	0.063
predicted_RBI	0.303	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.303	0.000
predicted_SO	0.947	0.012

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.23), rates preserved: AVG=0.109 HR/AB=0.044

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	5.000	0.1176	0.2500	0.3529	0.1177	0.0588	0.1177	0.1765	0.2941
last_10	0.35	10	-	29.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	9.000	0.0690	0.2059	0.2069	0.0690	0.0345	0.0690	0.1379	0.3103
season	0.20	31	-	100.000	19.000	5.000	4.000	11.000	12.000	16.000	29.000	0.1900	0.3051	0.3600	0.1900	0.0400	0.1100	0.1600	0.2900

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1550
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.1900
predicted_AVG	0.1151
predicted_BB	0.5090
predicted_H	0.3670
predicted_HBP	0.0450
predicted_HR	0.1480
predicted_OBP	0.2456
predicted_R	0.4840
predicted_RBI	0.3160
predicted_SLG	0.3032
predicted_SO	0.9540

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1610	0.1550	0.1571	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2260	3.1900	3.2026	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1150	0.1151	0.1151	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5160	0.5090	0.5114	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3200	0.3670	0.3506	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0450	0.0450	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1480	0.1417	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2460	0.2456	0.2457	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3870	0.4840	0.4500	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2800	0.3160	0.3034	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3030	0.3032	0.3031	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9350	0.9540	0.9473	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260506_TEX@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	694497
playerID	694497
playerName	Evan Carter
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	TEX
teamID	28

Joc Pederson (592626) · BATTER · RF · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 26

All-history rows before 20260507: 26

System season_avg: 0.1780

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1781

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.038	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.038	0.000	-0.038	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.808	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	2.808	2.000	1.192	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.178	0.000	-0.178	0.000
predicted_BB	0.385	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.385	0.000	-0.385	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.038	0.000	-0.038	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.162	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.276	0.000	-0.276	0.000
predicted_R	0.269	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.269	0.000	-0.269	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.260	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.192	1.000	-0.192	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.121	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.233	0.000	-0.233	0.000
predicted_SO	0.885	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.885	1.000	-0.885	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.038	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.808	-
predicted_AVG	0.110	-
predicted_BB	0.385	-
predicted_H	0.280	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.162	-
predicted_R	0.269	-
predicted_RBI	0.260	-
predicted_SLG	0.121	-
predicted_SO	0.885	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.019	-0.019
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.002	0.194
predicted_AVG	0.110	0.000
predicted_BB	0.287	-0.098
predicted_H	0.321	0.041
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.009	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.162	-0.000
predicted_R	0.206	-0.063
predicted_RBI	0.299	0.039
predicted_SLG	0.121	0.000
predicted_SO	0.792	-0.093

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.107 HR/AB=0.003

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 26

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	0.0588	0.0588	0.0588	0.0588	0.0000	0.1177	0.0000	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	-	29.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	8.000	0.1379	0.2286	0.1379	0.1379	0.0000	0.1035	0.1379	0.2759
season	0.20	26	-	73.000	13.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	7.000	10.000	23.000	0.1781	0.2759	0.2329	0.1781	0.0137	0.0685	0.1370	0.3151

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0090
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.1070
predicted_AVG	0.1103
predicted_BB	0.2350
predicted_H	0.3430
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.0090
predicted_OBP	0.1616
predicted_R	0.1720
predicted_RBI	0.3200
predicted_SLG	0.1213
predicted_SO	0.7420

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0380	0.0090	0.0192	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.8080	3.1070	3.0023	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1100	0.1103	0.1102	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3850	0.2350	0.2875	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.2800	0.3430	0.3210	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0090	0.0094	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1620	0.1616	0.1617	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2690	0.1720	0.2059	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2600	0.3200	0.2990	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1210	0.1213	0.1212	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8850	0.7420	0.7920	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	26
Season rows before report date	26
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	26
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.178

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260505_TEX@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	592626
playerID	592626
playerName	Joc Pederson
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	TEX
teamID	28

Josh Jung (673962) · BATTER · 3B · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 32

All-history rows before 20260507: 32

System season_avg: 0.3250

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3252

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.375	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.844	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.844	5.000	-0.844	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.325	0.000	-0.325	0.000
predicted_BB	0.312	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.312	0.000	-0.312	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.031	0.000	-0.031	0.000
predicted_H	1.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.250	0.000	-1.250	0.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.375	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.378	0.000	-0.128	0.250
predicted_R	0.406	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.406	0.000	-0.406	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.460	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.594	0.000	-0.594	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.031	0.000	-0.031	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.459	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.520	0.000	-0.520	0.000
predicted_SO	0.656	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.656	3.000	0.344	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.375	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.844	-
predicted_AVG	0.350	-
predicted_BB	0.312	-
predicted_H	1.230	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.375	-
predicted_R	0.406	-
predicted_RBI	0.460	-
predicted_SLG	0.459	-
predicted_SO	0.656	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.311	-0.064
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.123	0.280
predicted_AVG	0.350	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.226	-0.086
predicted_H	1.402	0.172
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.059	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.375	0.000
predicted_R	0.326	-0.080
predicted_RBI	0.522	0.062
predicted_SLG	0.459	0.000
predicted_SO	0.630	-0.026

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.12), rates preserved: AVG=0.340 HR/AB=0.014

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.844

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	23.000	8.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	0.3478	0.3478	0.3913	0.3478	0.0000	0.0870	0.0000	0.1304
last_10	0.35	10	-	41.000	15.000	3.000	1.000	7.000	3.000	3.000	6.000	0.3659	0.4091	0.5122	0.3659	0.0244	0.1707	0.0732	0.1463
season	0.20	32	-	123.000	40.000	12.000	4.000	19.000	13.000	10.000	21.000	0.3252	0.3778	0.5203	0.3252	0.0325	0.1545	0.0813	0.1707

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2760
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.2740
predicted_AVG	0.3496
predicted_BB	0.1790
predicted_H	1.4940
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.0640
predicted_OBP	0.3753
predicted_R	0.2830
predicted_RBI	0.5550
predicted_SLG	0.4594
predicted_SO	0.6160

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3750	0.2760	0.3106	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8440	4.2740	4.1235	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3500	0.3496	0.3497	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3120	0.1790	0.2255	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2300	1.4940	1.4016	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0640	0.0591	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3750	0.3753	0.3752	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4060	0.2830	0.3261	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4600	0.5550	0.5218	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4590	0.4594	0.4593	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6560	0.6160	0.6300	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.325

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260506_TEX@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	673962
playerID	673962
playerName	Josh Jung
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	TEX
teamID	28

Ezequiel Duran (677649) · BATTER · LF · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 22

All-history rows before 20260507: 22

System season_avg: 0.3000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.273	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.273	1.000	-0.273	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.045	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.045	0.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_AB	3.182	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.182	3.000	1.818	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.346	0.200	0.200	Hitting_AVG	0.300	0.333	-0.100	-0.133
predicted_BB	0.409	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.409	1.000	-0.409	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.010	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.955	1.000	0.045	0.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.045	0.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.420	0.200	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.375	0.400	-0.175	-0.200
predicted_R	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.500	1.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.430	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.409	2.000	0.591	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.182	1.000	-0.182	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.547	0.200	0.200	Hitting_SLG	0.457	0.667	-0.257	-0.467
predicted_SO	0.591	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.591	1.000	-0.591	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.273	-
predicted_3B	0.045	-
predicted_AB	3.182	-
predicted_AVG	0.346	-
predicted_BB	0.409	-
predicted_H	1.010	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.420	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.547	-
predicted_SO	0.591	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.339	0.066
predicted_3B	0.102	0.057
predicted_AB	3.272	0.090
predicted_AVG	0.346	0.000
predicted_BB	0.484	0.075
predicted_H	1.101	0.091
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.009	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.420	0.000
predicted_R	0.529	0.029
predicted_RBI	0.469	0.039
predicted_SLG	0.547	0.000
predicted_SO	0.550	-0.041

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.27), rates preserved: AVG=0.336 HR/AB=0.003

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, BvP AVG=0.400)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	2.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	3.000	3.000	0.3529	0.4286	0.5882	0.3529	0.0000	0.1765	0.1765	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	12.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	5.000	5.000	4.000	0.3636	0.4359	0.5455	0.3636	0.0000	0.1212	0.1515	0.1212
season	0.20	22	-	70.000	21.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	9.000	11.000	9.000	13.000	0.3000	0.3750	0.4571	0.3000	0.0143	0.1286	0.1286	0.1857

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3740
predicted_3B	0.1330
predicted_AB	3.3210
predicted_AVG	0.3461
predicted_BB	0.5250
predicted_H	1.1500
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0090
predicted_OBP	0.4204
predicted_R	0.5440
predicted_RBI	0.4900
predicted_SLG	0.5470
predicted_SO	0.5280

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2730	0.3740	0.3387	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0450	0.1330	0.1022	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1820	3.3210	3.2724	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3460	0.3461	0.3461	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4090	0.5250	0.4844	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0100	1.1500	1.1010	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0090	0.0094	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4200	0.4204	0.4203	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.5440	0.5286	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.4900	0.4690	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5470	0.5470	0.5470	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5910	0.5280	0.5500	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.3

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260506_TEX@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	677649
playerID	677649
playerName	Ezequiel Duran
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	TEX
teamID	28

Brandon Nimmo (607043) · BATTER · DH · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 34

All-history rows before 20260507: 34

System season_avg: 0.2930

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2932

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.206	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.206	0.000	-0.206	0.000
predicted_3B	0.029	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_AB	3.912	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.912	3.000	-0.912	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.342	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.293	0.000	-0.293	0.000
predicted_BB	0.441	2.000	2.000	Hitting_BB	0.441	2.000	1.559	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_H	1.260	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.147	0.000	-1.147	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.464	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.375	0.400	0.025	0.000
predicted_R	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.353	0.000	-0.353	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.383	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.451	0.000	-0.451	0.000
predicted_SO	0.882	3.000	3.000	Hitting_SO	0.882	1.000	2.118	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.206	-
predicted_3B	0.029	-
predicted_AB	3.912	-
predicted_AVG	0.342	-
predicted_BB	0.441	-
predicted_H	1.260	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.464	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.100	-
predicted_SLG	0.383	-
predicted_SO	0.882	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.117	-0.089
predicted_3B	0.013	-0.016
predicted_AB	3.529	-0.383
predicted_AVG	0.342	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.596	0.155
predicted_H	1.179	-0.081
predicted_HBP	0.149	-
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.464	0.000
predicted_R	0.491	-0.009
predicted_RBI	0.096	-0.004
predicted_SLG	0.383	0.000
predicted_SO	0.821	-0.061

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.91), rates preserved: AVG=0.301 HR/AB=0.005

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	2.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.912

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	4.000	0.4000	0.5500	0.4000	0.4000	0.0000	0.0000	0.2667	0.2667
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	10.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	7.000	0.2941	0.4048	0.3235	0.2941	0.0000	0.0294	0.1765	0.2059
season	0.20	34	-	133.000	39.000	7.000	1.000	4.000	12.000	17.000	15.000	30.000	0.2932	0.3750	0.4511	0.2932	0.0301	0.0902	0.1128	0.2256

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0690
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.3220
predicted_AVG	0.3416
predicted_BB	0.6790
predicted_H	1.1350
predicted_HBP	0.1490
predicted_HR	0.0200
predicted_OBP	0.4642
predicted_R	0.4870
predicted_RBI	0.0940
predicted_SLG	0.3834
predicted_SO	0.7880

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2060	0.0690	0.1169	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0290	0.0050	0.0134	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9120	3.3220	3.5285	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3420	0.3416	0.3417	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4410	0.6790	0.5957	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2600	1.1350	1.1787	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1490	0.1490	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0200	0.0200	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4640	0.4642	0.4641	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.4870	0.4915	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1000	0.0940	0.0961	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3830	0.3834	0.3833	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8820	0.7880	0.8209	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.293

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260506_TEX@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	607043
playerID	607043
playerName	Brandon Nimmo
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	TEX
teamID	28

Corey Seager (608369) · BATTER · SS · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 35

All-history rows before 20260507: 35

System season_avg: 0.2140

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2137

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.171	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.171	0.000	-0.171	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.743	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.743	5.000	0.257	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.225	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.214	0.400	0.036	-0.150
predicted_BB	0.543	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.543	0.000	-0.543	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.770	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.800	2.000	0.200	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.200	1.000	-0.200	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.320	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.314	0.400	-0.064	-0.150
predicted_R	0.600	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.600	1.000	0.400	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.340	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.543	2.000	0.457	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.400	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.420	1.000	-0.170	-0.750
predicted_SO	1.171	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.171	2.000	-0.171	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.171	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.743	-
predicted_AVG	0.225	-
predicted_BB	0.543	-
predicted_H	0.770	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.320	-
predicted_R	0.600	-
predicted_RBI	0.340	-
predicted_SLG	0.400	-
predicted_SO	1.171	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.186	0.015
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.877	0.134
predicted_AVG	0.225	0.000
predicted_BB	0.550	0.007
predicted_H	0.847	0.077
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.157	0.017
predicted_OBP	0.320	0.000
predicted_R	0.475	-0.125
predicted_RBI	0.376	0.036
predicted_SLG	0.400	0.000
predicted_SO	1.289	0.118

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.88), rates preserved: AVG=0.219 HR/AB=0.040

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, BvP AVG=0.429)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	7.000	0.2500	0.3478	0.4500	0.2500	0.0500	0.1000	0.1500	0.3500
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	8.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	5.000	14.000	0.2000	0.2889	0.3250	0.2000	0.0250	0.0750	0.1250	0.3500
season	0.20	35	-	131.000	28.000	6.000	7.000	19.000	21.000	19.000	41.000	0.2137	0.3137	0.4198	0.2137	0.0534	0.1450	0.1450	0.3130

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1940
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.9490
predicted_AVG	0.2252
predicted_BB	0.5540
predicted_H	0.8890
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.1660
predicted_OBP	0.3204
predicted_R	0.4080
predicted_RBI	0.3960
predicted_SLG	0.4002
predicted_SO	1.3530

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1710	0.1940	0.1860	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7430	3.9490	3.8769	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2250	0.2252	0.2251	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5430	0.5540	0.5502	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7700	0.8890	0.8473	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1660	0.1569	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3200	0.3204	0.3203	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6000	0.4080	0.4752	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3400	0.3960	0.3764	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4000	0.4002	0.4001	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1710	1.3530	1.2893	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.214

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260506_TEX@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	608369
playerID	608369
playerName	Corey Seager
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	TEX
teamID	28

Jake Burger (669394) · BATTER · 1B · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 35

All-history rows before 20260507: 35

System season_avg: 0.2140

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2143

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	4.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.220	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.214	0.500	0.036	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.171	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.171	0.000	-0.171	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.770	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.857	2.000	0.143	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.264	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.250	0.500	0.000	-0.250
predicted_R	0.371	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.371	1.000	-0.371	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.514	0.000	-0.514	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.375	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.357	0.500	-0.107	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.200	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.200	0.000	-0.200	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.220	-
predicted_BB	0.171	-
predicted_H	0.770	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.264	-
predicted_R	0.371	-
predicted_RBI	0.310	-
predicted_SLG	0.375	-
predicted_SO	1.200	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.149	0.007
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.954	-0.046
predicted_AVG	0.220	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.210	0.039
predicted_H	0.831	0.061
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.148	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.264	-0.000
predicted_R	0.444	0.073
predicted_RBI	0.336	0.026
predicted_SLG	0.375	0.000
predicted_SO	1.086	-0.114

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.208 HR/AB=0.037

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	0.2500	0.2857	0.4500	0.2500	0.0500	0.1000	0.0500	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	12.000	0.1842	0.2439	0.2895	0.1842	0.0263	0.0526	0.0790	0.3158
season	0.20	35	-	140.000	30.000	5.000	5.000	18.000	13.000	6.000	42.000	0.2143	0.2500	0.3571	0.2143	0.0357	0.1286	0.0429	0.3000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1530
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.9300
predicted_AVG	0.2198
predicted_BB	0.2310
predicted_H	0.8640
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.1530
predicted_OBP	0.2639
predicted_R	0.4830
predicted_RBI	0.3500
predicted_SLG	0.3752
predicted_SO	1.0240

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.1530	0.1495	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0000	3.9300	3.9545	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2200	0.2198	0.2199	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1710	0.2310	0.2100	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7700	0.8640	0.8311	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1530	0.1484	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2640	0.2639	0.2639	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3710	0.4830	0.4438	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3100	0.3500	0.3360	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3750	0.3752	0.3751	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2000	1.0240	1.0856	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.214

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260506_TEX@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	669394
playerID	669394
playerName	Jake Burger
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	TEX
teamID	28

Danny Jansen (643376) · BATTER · C · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 22

All-history rows before 20260507: 22

System season_avg: 0.2030

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2027

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_3B	0.045	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.045	0.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_AB	3.364	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.364	3.000	-0.364	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.151	0.667	0.667	Hitting_AVG	0.203	0.000	0.464	0.667
predicted_BB	0.318	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.318	0.000	0.682	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.045	0.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_H	0.410	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.682	0.000	1.318	2.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.271	0.750	0.750	Hitting_OBP	0.289	0.250	0.461	0.500
predicted_R	0.273	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.273	0.000	-0.273	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.364	0.000	-0.364	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.401	0.667	0.667	Hitting_SLG	0.365	0.000	0.302	0.667
predicted_SO	1.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.182	1.000	-1.182	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	-
predicted_3B	0.045	-
predicted_AB	3.364	-
predicted_AVG	0.151	-
predicted_BB	0.318	-
predicted_H	0.410	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.271	-
predicted_R	0.273	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.401	-
predicted_SO	1.182	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.133	-0.049
predicted_3B	0.103	0.058
predicted_AB	3.279	-0.085
predicted_AVG	0.151	0.000
predicted_BB	0.338	0.020
predicted_H	0.462	0.052
predicted_HBP	0.179	-
predicted_HR	0.136	0.016
predicted_OBP	0.271	-0.000
predicted_R	0.317	0.043
predicted_RBI	0.304	0.034
predicted_SLG	0.401	0.000
predicted_SO	1.274	0.092

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.36), rates preserved: AVG=0.137 HR/AB=0.040

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	0.1250	0.2632	0.4375	0.1250	0.0625	0.1250	0.1250	0.4375
last_10	0.35	10	-	32.000	5.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	13.000	0.1562	0.2703	0.3750	0.1562	0.0312	0.0625	0.0938	0.4062
season	0.20	22	-	74.000	15.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	8.000	6.000	7.000	26.000	0.2027	0.2892	0.3649	0.2027	0.0270	0.1081	0.0946	0.3513

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1060
predicted_3B	0.1350
predicted_AB	3.2330
predicted_AVG	0.1515
predicted_BB	0.3490
predicted_H	0.4900
predicted_HBP	0.1790
predicted_HR	0.1440
predicted_OBP	0.2709
predicted_R	0.3400
predicted_RBI	0.3220
predicted_SLG	0.4011
predicted_SO	1.3230

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1820	0.1060	0.1326	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0450	0.1350	0.1035	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3640	3.2330	3.2789	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1510	0.1515	0.1513	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3180	0.3490	0.3382	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4100	0.4900	0.4620	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1790	0.1790	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1440	0.1356	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2710	0.2709	0.2709	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2730	0.3400	0.3165	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.3220	0.3038	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4010	0.4011	0.4011	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1820	1.3230	1.2736	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.203

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260505_TEX@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	643376
playerID	643376
playerName	Danny Jansen
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	TEX
teamID	28

MacKenzie Gore (669022) · PITCHER · Starter · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 7

All-history rows before 20260507: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	6.000	6.000	-	Pitching_ER	2.571	3.000	3.429	3.000
predicted_IP	4.200	4.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.786	3.200	-0.586	1.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	6.429	3.000	-4.429	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 4.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	23.100	13.000	21.000	15.000	29.000	3.000	5.0143	1.5429	0.5571	0.9000	0.6429	1.2429	0.1286
last_10	0.35	7	34.200	18.000	29.000	18.000	45.000	5.000	4.6731	1.3558	0.5192	0.8365	0.5192	1.2981	0.1442
season	0.20	7	34.200	18.000	29.000	18.000	45.000	5.000	4.6731	1.3558	0.5192	0.8365	0.5192	1.2981	0.1442

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.7880
predicted_ER	2.6010
predicted_ERA	4.8266
predicted_H	4.1960
predicted_HR	0.6650
predicted_IP	5.0000
predicted_SO	6.1750
predicted_WHIP	1.4400

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	2.7880	2.1622	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	6.0000	2.6010	3.7906	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.8266	4.8266	form_only
predicted_H	7.0000	4.1960	5.1774	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.6650	0.7823	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.2000	5.0000	5.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	6.1750	4.7138	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4400	1.4400	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.2
H	7
R	6
ER	6
BB	1
SO	2
HR	1
BF	27
Pitches	103

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	18
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	4.67
Pitching_Flyouts	4
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	3.2
Pitching_Pitches	94
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	55
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260501_TEX@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	669022
playerID	669022
playerName	MacKenzie Gore
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	TEX
teamID	28

Jakob Junis (596001) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 14

All-history rows before 20260507: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.214	0.000	-0.214	0.000
predicted_IP	2.100	2.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.079	1.000	1.021	1.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.429	0.000	-0.429	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 2.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.0000	0.4000	0.0000	0.4000	0.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	3.000	6.000	4.000	2.000	2.6129	0.9677	0.2903	0.5806	0.3871	0.1935
season	0.20	14	15.100	3.000	7.000	4.000	6.000	1.7609	0.7174	0.1956	0.4565	0.2609	0.3913

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1880
predicted_ER	0.1410
predicted_ERA	1.2667
predicted_H	0.4750
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.1460
predicted_WHIP	0.6622

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1880	0.1222	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1410	0.0916	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.2667	1.2667	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.4750	0.3087	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	2.1000	1.0000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.1460	0.0949	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.6622	0.6622	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	9

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.76
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	9
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260501_TEX@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	596001
playerID	596001
playerName	Jakob Junis
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TEX
teamID	28

Jacob Latz (656641) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 15

All-history rows before 20260507: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.133	0.000	-0.133
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.167	1.000	-0.167
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.067	1.000	-0.067

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	0.000	0.0000	0.3333	0.0000	0.1667	0.1667	1.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	2.000	5.000	2.000	8.000	1.000	1.8621	0.7241	0.2069	0.5172	0.2069	0.8276	0.1035
season	0.20	15	18.200	2.000	5.000	4.000	16.000	1.000	0.9643	0.4821	0.1071	0.2679	0.2143	0.8571	0.0536

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2320
predicted_ER	0.1140
predicted_ERA	0.8446
predicted_H	0.3770
predicted_HR	0.0570
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.1080
predicted_WHIP	0.4998

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.2320	0.5008	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1140	0.0741	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.8446	0.8446	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.3770	0.5950	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0570	0.0370	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.1000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1080	1.0702	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.4998	0.4998	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	24

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.96
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	21
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_TEX@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	656641
playerID	656641
playerName	Jacob Latz
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TEX
teamID	28

Home Team: NYY

Max Schuemann (680474) · BATTER · SS · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 0

All-history rows before 20260507: 0

System season_avg: 0.0000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): -

Diff (system - data): -

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	-	-	-	-
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	-	-	-	-
predicted_AB	0.000	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	-	-	-	-
predicted_AVG	0.000	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	-	-	-	-
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	-	-	-	-
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	-	-	-	-
predicted_H	0.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	-	-	-	-
predicted_HR	0.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	-	-	-	-
predicted_OBP	0.000	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	-	-	-	-
predicted_R	0.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	-	-	-	-
predicted_RBI	0.000	3.000	3.000	Hitting_RBI	-	-	-	-
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	-	-	-	-
predicted_SLG	0.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SLG	-	-	-	-
predicted_SO	0.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	-	-	-	-

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw XGBoost model output

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	0.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.000	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.000	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.000	-
predicted_SLG	0.000	-
predicted_SO	0.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.473	2.473
predicted_AVG	0.000	0.000
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.000	0.000
predicted_R	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.000	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.47), rates preserved: AVG=0.000 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	3.000	3.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 0

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Total PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
last_10	0.35	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
season	0.20	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.8040
predicted_BB	0.0000
predicted_H	0.0000
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_R	0.0000
predicted_RBI	0.0000
predicted_SO	0.0000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	0.0000	3.8040	2.4726	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.0000	-	0.0000	model_only
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.0000	-	0.0000	model_only
predicted_R	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.0000	-	0.0000	model_only
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	0
Season rows before report date	0
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	0
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	3
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.0

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

No historical data found for this player before report date.

Trent Grisham (663757) · BATTER · CF · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 30

All-history rows before 20260507: 30

System season_avg: 0.1570

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1574

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_3B	0.033	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.033	0.000	-0.033	0.000
predicted_AB	3.600	2.000	2.000	Hitting_AB	3.600	4.000	-1.600	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.157	0.000	-0.157	0.000
predicted_BB	0.733	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.733	0.000	0.267	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.033	0.000	-0.033	0.000
predicted_H	0.560	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.567	0.000	-0.567	0.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.276	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.295	0.000	-0.045	0.250
predicted_R	0.633	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.633	0.000	0.367	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.490	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.033	0.000	-0.033	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.415	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.306	0.000	-0.306	0.000
predicted_SO	0.733	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.733	2.000	-0.733	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.033	-
predicted_AB	3.600	-
predicted_AVG	0.180	-
predicted_BB	0.733	-
predicted_H	0.560	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.276	-
predicted_R	0.633	-
predicted_RBI	0.490	-
predicted_SLG	0.415	-
predicted_SO	0.733	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.345	0.178
predicted_3B	0.016	-0.017
predicted_AB	3.727	0.127
predicted_AVG	0.180	0.000
predicted_BB	0.621	-0.112
predicted_H	0.640	0.080
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.136	0.016
predicted_OBP	0.276	-0.000
predicted_R	0.755	0.122
predicted_RBI	0.562	0.072
predicted_SLG	0.415	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.665	-0.068

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.73), rates preserved: AVG=0.172 HR/AB=0.037

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, BvP AVG=0.400)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-2.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	1.000	1.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	4.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	5.000	3.000	3.000	0.2105	0.3043	0.5263	0.2105	0.0526	0.2105	0.1579	0.1579
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	6.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	7.000	4.000	6.000	0.1538	0.2273	0.3333	0.1538	0.0256	0.1026	0.1026	0.1538
season	0.20	30	-	108.000	17.000	5.000	1.000	3.000	15.000	19.000	22.000	22.000	0.1574	0.2955	0.3056	0.1574	0.0278	0.1389	0.2037	0.2037

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.4410
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.7950
predicted_AVG	0.1800
predicted_BB	0.5600
predicted_H	0.6830
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1450
predicted_OBP	0.2756
predicted_R	0.8210
predicted_RBI	0.6010
predicted_SLG	0.4146
predicted_SO	0.6290

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.4410	0.3451	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0330	0.0070	0.0161	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6000	3.7950	3.7268	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1800	0.1800	0.1800	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7330	0.5600	0.6206	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5600	0.6830	0.6400	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1450	0.1362	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2760	0.2756	0.2757	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6330	0.8210	0.7552	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4900	0.6010	0.5621	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4150	0.4146	0.4147	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7330	0.6290	0.6654	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	1
HBP	0
season_avg	0.157

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260506_TEX@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	663757
playerID	663757
playerName	Trent Grisham
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	NYY
teamID	19

Amed Rosario (642708) · BATTER · 3B · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 17

All-history rows before 20260507: 17

System season_avg: 0.2730

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2727

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.059	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_AB	3.235	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.235	3.000	0.765	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.257	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.273	0.333	-0.023	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.294	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.294	1.000	-0.294	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.760	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.882	1.000	0.118	0.000
predicted_HR	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.235	0.000	-0.235	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.317	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.328	0.500	-0.078	-0.250
predicted_R	0.412	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.412	0.000	0.588	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.830	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.765	1.000	-0.765	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.460	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.527	0.333	-0.277	-0.083
predicted_SO	0.647	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.647	2.000	-0.647	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.059	-
predicted_AB	3.235	-
predicted_AVG	0.257	-
predicted_BB	0.294	-
predicted_H	0.760	-
predicted_HR	0.190	-
predicted_OBP	0.317	-
predicted_R	0.412	-
predicted_RBI	0.830	-
predicted_SLG	0.460	-
predicted_SO	0.647	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.028	-0.031
predicted_AB	3.204	-0.031
predicted_AVG	0.257	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.329	0.035
predicted_H	0.798	0.038
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.202	0.012
predicted_OBP	0.317	-0.000
predicted_R	0.490	0.078
predicted_RBI	0.870	0.040
predicted_SLG	0.460	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.769	0.122

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.23), rates preserved: AVG=0.247 HR/AB=0.062

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, BvP AVG=0.286)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	2.000	5.000	0.2667	0.3333	0.4667	0.2667	0.0667	0.3333	0.1333	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	8.000	0.000	2.000	8.000	5.000	3.000	7.000	0.2353	0.2895	0.4118	0.2353	0.0588	0.2353	0.0882	0.2059
season	0.20	17	-	55.000	15.000	1.000	4.000	13.000	7.000	5.000	11.000	0.2727	0.3279	0.5273	0.2727	0.0727	0.2364	0.0909	0.2000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0120
predicted_AB	3.1870
predicted_AVG	0.2569
predicted_BB	0.3480
predicted_H	0.8190
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.2080
predicted_OBP	0.3169
predicted_R	0.5320
predicted_RBI	0.8910
predicted_SLG	0.4596
predicted_SO	0.8350

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0590	0.0120	0.0284	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2350	3.1870	3.2038	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2570	0.2569	0.2569	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2940	0.3480	0.3291	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7600	0.8190	0.7983	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1900	0.2080	0.2017	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3170	0.3169	0.3169	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4120	0.5320	0.4900	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.8300	0.8910	0.8697	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4600	0.4596	0.4597	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6470	0.8350	0.7692	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.273

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260501_BAL@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	642708
playerID	642708
playerName	Amed Rosario
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	NYY
teamID	19

Jazz Chisholm Jr. (665862) · BATTER · 2B · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 34

All-history rows before 20260507: 34

System season_avg: 0.2130

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2126

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.147	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.147	0.000	-0.147	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.735	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.735	3.000	-0.735	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.226	0.667	0.667	Hitting_AVG	0.213	0.000	0.454	0.667
predicted_BB	0.441	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.441	0.000	0.559	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_H	0.760	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.794	0.000	1.206	2.000
predicted_HR	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.312	0.750	0.750	Hitting_OBP	0.299	0.000	0.451	0.750
predicted_R	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.470	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.382	0.000	-0.382	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.294	0.000	-0.294	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.391	0.667	0.667	Hitting_SLG	0.346	0.000	0.320	0.667
predicted_SO	1.118	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.118	1.000	-1.118	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.147	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.735	-
predicted_AVG	0.226	-
predicted_BB	0.441	-
predicted_H	0.760	-
predicted_HR	0.180	-
predicted_OBP	0.312	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.470	-
predicted_SLG	0.391	-
predicted_SO	1.118	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.070	-0.077
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.606	-0.129
predicted_AVG	0.226	0.000
predicted_BB	0.481	0.040
predicted_H	0.786	0.026
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.183	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.312	0.000
predicted_R	0.614	0.114
predicted_RBI	0.484	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.391	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.890	-0.228

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.73), rates preserved: AVG=0.210 HR/AB=0.049

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, BvP AVG=0.333)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	3.000	3.000	0.2353	0.3333	0.4118	0.2353	0.0588	0.1765	0.1765	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	8.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	6.000	4.000	8.000	0.2222	0.2927	0.3889	0.2222	0.0556	0.1111	0.1111	0.2222
season	0.20	34	-	127.000	27.000	5.000	4.000	13.000	17.000	15.000	38.000	0.2126	0.2986	0.3465	0.2126	0.0315	0.1024	0.1181	0.2992

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0280
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.5370
predicted_AVG	0.2262
predicted_BB	0.5020
predicted_H	0.8000
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.1850
predicted_OBP	0.3121
predicted_R	0.6760
predicted_RBI	0.4910
predicted_SLG	0.3907
predicted_SO	0.7680

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1470	0.0280	0.0696	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7350	3.5370	3.6063	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2260	0.2262	0.2261	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4410	0.5020	0.4807	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7600	0.8000	0.7860	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1800	0.1850	0.1832	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3120	0.3121	0.3121	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.6760	0.6144	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4700	0.4910	0.4836	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3910	0.3907	0.3908	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1180	0.7680	0.8905	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.213

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260506_TEX@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	665862
playerID	665862
playerName	Jazz Chisholm Jr.
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	NYY
teamID	19

Aaron Judge (592450) · BATTER · DH · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 37

All-history rows before 20260507: 37

System season_avg: 0.2730

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2727

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.162	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.162	0.000	-0.162	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.568	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.568	4.000	0.432	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.341	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.273	0.250	-0.273	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.757	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.757	0.000	-0.757	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.054	0.000	-0.054	0.000
predicted_H	1.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.973	1.000	-0.973	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.510	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.405	1.000	-0.405	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.472	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.407	0.250	-0.407	-0.250
predicted_R	0.919	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.919	1.000	-0.919	-1.000
predicted_RBI	1.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.757	1.000	-0.757	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.135	0.000	-0.135	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.872	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.659	1.000	-0.659	-1.000
predicted_SO	1.243	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.243	2.000	-0.243	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.162	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.568	-
predicted_AVG	0.341	-
predicted_BB	0.757	-
predicted_H	1.100	-
predicted_HR	0.510	-
predicted_OBP	0.472	-
predicted_R	0.919	-
predicted_RBI	1.050	-
predicted_SLG	0.872	-
predicted_SO	1.243	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.204	0.042
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.585	0.017
predicted_AVG	0.341	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.815	0.058
predicted_H	1.181	0.081
predicted_HBP	0.046	-
predicted_HR	0.543	0.033
predicted_OBP	0.472	-0.000
predicted_R	1.146	0.227
predicted_RBI	1.125	0.075
predicted_SLG	0.872	0.000
predicted_SO	1.337	0.094

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.58), rates preserved: AVG=0.329 HR/AB=0.152

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, BvP AVG=0.429)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	-1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	6.000	1.000	3.000	7.000	7.000	5.000	8.000	0.3333	0.4783	0.8889	0.3333	0.1667	0.3889	0.2778	0.4444
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	14.000	3.000	6.000	11.000	13.000	7.000	12.000	0.3889	0.5000	0.9722	0.3889	0.1667	0.3056	0.1944	0.3333
season	0.20	37	-	132.000	36.000	6.000	15.000	28.000	34.000	28.000	46.000	0.2727	0.4074	0.6591	0.2727	0.1136	0.2121	0.2121	0.3485

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2270
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.5940
predicted_AVG	0.3406
predicted_BB	0.8460
predicted_H	1.2240
predicted_HBP	0.0460
predicted_HR	0.5610
predicted_OBP	0.4717
predicted_R	1.2680
predicted_RBI	1.1660
predicted_SLG	0.8721
predicted_SO	1.3880

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1620	0.2270	0.2043	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5680	3.5940	3.5849	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3410	0.3406	0.3407	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7570	0.8460	0.8149	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1000	1.2240	1.1806	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0460	0.0460	form_only
predicted_HR	0.5100	0.5610	0.5432	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4720	0.4717	0.4718	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.9190	1.2680	1.1459	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	1.0500	1.1660	1.1254	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.8720	0.8721	0.8721	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2430	1.3880	1.3373	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.273

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260506_TEX@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	592450
playerID	592450
playerName	Aaron Judge
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	NYY
teamID	19

Cody Bellinger (641355) · BATTER · RF · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 35

All-history rows before 20260507: 35

System season_avg: 0.2810

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2812

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_3B	0.057	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.057	0.000	-0.057	0.000
predicted_AB	3.657	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.657	3.000	-0.657	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.401	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.281	0.333	0.052	0.000
predicted_BB	0.629	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.629	1.000	-0.629	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_H	1.350	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.029	1.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_HR	0.260	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.460	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.379	0.500	0.121	0.000
predicted_R	0.629	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.629	0.000	0.371	1.000
predicted_RBI	1.340	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.686	0.000	-0.686	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.114	0.000	-0.114	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.884	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.508	0.333	-0.174	0.000
predicted_SO	0.571	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.571	0.000	-0.571	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.286	-
predicted_3B	0.057	-
predicted_AB	3.657	-
predicted_AVG	0.401	-
predicted_BB	0.629	-
predicted_H	1.350	-
predicted_HR	0.260	-
predicted_OBP	0.460	-
predicted_R	0.629	-
predicted_RBI	1.340	-
predicted_SLG	0.884	-
predicted_SO	0.571	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.531	0.245
predicted_3B	0.109	0.052
predicted_AB	3.673	0.016
predicted_AVG	0.401	0.000
predicted_BB	0.570	-0.059
predicted_H	1.432	0.082
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.274	0.014
predicted_OBP	0.460	-0.000
predicted_R	0.630	0.001
predicted_RBI	1.421	0.081
predicted_SLG	0.884	0.000
predicted_SO	0.406	-0.164

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.67), rates preserved: AVG=0.390 HR/AB=0.075

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	2.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	2.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, BvP AVG=0.333)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	2.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	2.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	2.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	-1.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	9.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	10.000	4.000	3.000	0.000	0.5000	0.5455	1.1667	0.5000	0.1111	0.5556	0.1667	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	13.000	7.000	1.000	2.000	12.000	4.000	4.000	6.000	0.3421	0.3953	0.7368	0.3421	0.0526	0.3158	0.1053	0.1579
season	0.20	35	-	128.000	36.000	10.000	2.000	5.000	24.000	22.000	22.000	20.000	0.2812	0.3791	0.5078	0.2812	0.0391	0.1875	0.1719	0.1562

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.6630
predicted_3B	0.1370
predicted_AB	3.6810
predicted_AVG	0.4010
predicted_BB	0.5380
predicted_H	1.4760
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.2810
predicted_OBP	0.4597
predicted_R	0.6300
predicted_RBI	1.4650
predicted_SLG	0.8845
predicted_SO	0.3180

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2860	0.6630	0.5311	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0570	0.1370	0.1090	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6570	3.6810	3.6726	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.4010	0.4010	0.4010	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6290	0.5380	0.5698	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.3500	1.4760	1.4319	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2600	0.2810	0.2737	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4600	0.4597	0.4598	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6290	0.6300	0.6297	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	1.3400	1.4650	1.4213	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.8840	0.8845	0.8843	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5710	0.3180	0.4065	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.281

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260506_TEX@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	641355
playerID	641355
playerName	Cody Bellinger
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	NYY
teamID	19

Paul Goldschmidt (502671) · BATTER · 1B · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 12

All-history rows before 20260507: 12

System season_avg: 0.1900

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1905

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.500	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	3.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.190	0.000	-0.190	0.000
predicted_BB	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.720	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.292	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.277	0.000	-0.277	0.000
predicted_R	0.667	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.417	0.000	-0.417	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.450	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.429	0.000	-0.429	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.333	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.220	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.720	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.292	-
predicted_R	0.667	-
predicted_RBI	0.300	-
predicted_SLG	0.450	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.344	0.011
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.542	0.042
predicted_AVG	0.220	0.000
predicted_BB	0.314	-0.019
predicted_H	0.762	0.042
predicted_HBP	0.055	-
predicted_HR	0.150	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.292	-0.000
predicted_R	0.689	0.021
predicted_RBI	0.319	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.450	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.948	-0.052

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.54), rates preserved: AVG=0.215 HR/AB=0.042

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, BvP AVG=0.300)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	5.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	4.000	0.2632	0.3000	0.5263	0.2632	0.0526	0.1053	0.0526	0.2105
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	6.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	4.000	10.000	0.1818	0.2895	0.3636	0.1818	0.0303	0.0606	0.1212	0.3030
season	0.20	12	-	42.000	8.000	4.000	2.000	5.000	8.000	4.000	12.000	0.1905	0.2766	0.4286	0.1905	0.0476	0.1191	0.0952	0.2857

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3500
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.5650
predicted_AVG	0.2202
predicted_BB	0.3040
predicted_H	0.7850
predicted_HBP	0.0550
predicted_HR	0.1560
predicted_OBP	0.2916
predicted_R	0.7000
predicted_RBI	0.3290
predicted_SLG	0.4498
predicted_SO	0.9200

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3330	0.3500	0.3440	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5000	3.5650	3.5423	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2200	0.2202	0.2201	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.3040	0.3141	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7200	0.7850	0.7623	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0550	0.0550	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1560	0.1504	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2920	0.2916	0.2917	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6670	0.7000	0.6885	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3000	0.3290	0.3189	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4500	0.4498	0.4499	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9200	0.9480	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260506_TEX@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	502671
playerID	502671
playerName	Paul Goldschmidt
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	NYY
teamID	19

Jasson Domínguez (691176) · BATTER · LF · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 8

All-history rows before 20260507: 8

System season_avg: 0.2000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	0.750	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.750	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.750	4.000	0.250	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.217	0.750	0.750	Hitting_AVG	0.200	0.000	0.550	0.750
predicted_BB	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.720	3.000	3.000	Hitting_H	0.750	0.000	2.250	3.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.260	0.750	0.750	Hitting_OBP	0.250	0.000	0.500	0.750
predicted_R	0.375	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.375	0.000	0.625	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.530	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	1.500	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.416	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SLG	0.367	0.000	0.633	1.000
predicted_SO	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.750	-
predicted_AVG	0.217	-
predicted_BB	0.125	-
predicted_H	0.720	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.260	-
predicted_R	0.375	-
predicted_RBI	0.530	-
predicted_SLG	0.416	-
predicted_SO	0.500	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.292	0.042
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.882	0.132
predicted_AVG	0.217	0.000
predicted_BB	0.146	0.021
predicted_H	0.810	0.090
predicted_HBP	0.072	-
predicted_HR	0.148	0.018
predicted_OBP	0.260	0.000
predicted_R	0.437	0.062
predicted_RBI	0.594	0.064
predicted_SLG	0.416	0.000
predicted_SO	0.473	-0.027

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.88), rates preserved: AVG=0.209 HR/AB=0.038

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	5.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	0.2381	0.2727	0.4762	0.2381	0.0476	0.1905	0.0476	0.0952
last_10	0.35	8	-	30.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	0.2000	0.2500	0.3667	0.2000	0.0333	0.1333	0.0333	0.1333
season	0.20	8	-	30.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	0.2000	0.2500	0.3667	0.2000	0.0333	0.1333	0.0333	0.1333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3140
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.9530
predicted_AVG	0.2171
predicted_BB	0.1570
predicted_H	0.8580
predicted_HBP	0.0720
predicted_HR	0.1570
predicted_OBP	0.2602
predicted_R	0.4710
predicted_RBI	0.6290
predicted_SLG	0.4160
predicted_SO	0.4590

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.3140	0.2916	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7500	3.9530	3.8819	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2170	0.2171	0.2171	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1250	0.1570	0.1458	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7200	0.8580	0.8097	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0720	0.0720	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1570	0.1476	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2600	0.2602	0.2601	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3750	0.4710	0.4374	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5300	0.6290	0.5943	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4160	0.4160	0.4160	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5000	0.4590	0.4733	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	3
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.2

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260506_TEX@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	691176
playerID	691176
playerName	Jasson Domínguez
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	NYY
teamID	19

J.C. Escarra (641555) · BATTER · C · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 9

All-history rows before 20260507: 9

System season_avg: 0.2120

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2121

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_AB	3.667	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.667	4.000	-0.667	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.252	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.212	0.250	-0.212	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.750	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.778	1.000	-0.778	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.264	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.235	0.250	-0.235	-0.250
predicted_R	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.520	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.556	0.000	-0.556	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.448	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.364	0.500	-0.364	-0.500
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.333	-
predicted_3B	0.111	-
predicted_AB	3.667	-
predicted_AVG	0.252	-
predicted_BB	0.111	-
predicted_H	0.750	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.264	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.520	-
predicted_SLG	0.448	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.408	0.075
predicted_3B	0.136	0.025
predicted_AB	3.764	0.098
predicted_AVG	0.252	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.080	-0.031
predicted_H	0.887	0.137
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.264	0.000
predicted_R	0.408	0.075
predicted_RBI	0.612	0.092
predicted_SLG	0.448	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.945	-0.055

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.76), rates preserved: AVG=0.236 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	6.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	0.000	4.000	0.3000	0.3000	0.5500	0.3000	0.2000	0.0000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	9	-	33.000	7.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	1.000	9.000	0.2121	0.2353	0.3636	0.2121	0.1515	0.0303	0.2727
season	0.20	9	-	33.000	7.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	1.000	9.000	0.2121	0.2353	0.3636	0.2121	0.1515	0.0303	0.2727

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.4480
predicted_3B	0.1490
predicted_AB	3.8170
predicted_AVG	0.2517
predicted_BB	0.0640
predicted_H	0.9610
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.2644
predicted_R	0.4480
predicted_RBI	0.6620
predicted_SLG	0.4475
predicted_SO	0.9160

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3330	0.4480	0.4078	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.1110	0.1490	0.1357	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6670	3.8170	3.7645	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2520	0.2517	0.2518	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1110	0.0640	0.0804	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7500	0.9610	0.8871	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2640	0.2644	0.2643	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.4480	0.4078	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5200	0.6620	0.6123	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4480	0.4475	0.4477	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9160	0.9454	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.212

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260502_BAL@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	641555
playerID	641555
playerName	J.C. Escarra
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	NYY
teamID	19

Paul Blackburn (621112) · PITCHER · Starter · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 9

All-history rows before 20260507: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.556	0.000	1.444	2.000
predicted_IP	3.200	3.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.478	1.000	1.722	2.200
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	0.000	4.000	5.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 3.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	9.000	4.000	8.000	3.000	6.000	4.0000	1.2222	0.4444	0.8889	0.3333	0.6667
last_10	0.35	9	14.000	5.000	15.000	4.000	9.000	3.2143	1.3571	0.3571	1.0714	0.2857	0.6429
season	0.20	9	14.000	5.000	15.000	4.000	9.000	3.2143	1.3571	0.3571	1.0714	0.2857	0.6429

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5120
predicted_ER	0.6610
predicted_ERA	3.5679
predicted_H	1.6490
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.2000
predicted_SO	1.0890
predicted_WHIP	1.2964

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	0.5120	1.3828	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.6610	1.1297	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.5679	3.5679	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	1.6490	2.4718	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	3.2000	1.2000	2.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	1.0890	2.4579	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2964	1.2964	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	3.2
H	4
R	2
ER	2
BB	3
SO	5
HR	0
BF	20
Pitches	80

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.21
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_BAL@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	621112
playerID	621112
playerName	Paul Blackburn
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYY
teamID	19

Camilo Doval (666808) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 15

All-history rows before 20260507: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.600	0.000	-0.600	0.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.727	1.000	0.473	0.200
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	2.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	1.000	3.8571	0.8571	0.4286	0.4286	0.4286	1.5000	0.2143
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	5.000	6.000	2.000	10.000	3.000	4.6552	0.8276	0.5172	0.6207	0.2069	1.0345	0.3103
season	0.20	15	13.000	9.000	11.000	3.000	15.000	3.000	6.2308	1.0769	0.6923	0.8461	0.2308	1.1539	0.2308

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3110
predicted_ER	0.5120
predicted_ERA	4.6112
predicted_H	0.5790
predicted_HR	0.2510
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.2680
predicted_WHIP	0.8907

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3110	0.5521	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5120	0.3328	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.6112	4.6112	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.5790	0.7263	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2510	0.1632	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.0000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.2680	1.1742	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.8907	0.8907	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	26

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	6.23
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	8
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_BAL@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	666808
playerID	666808
playerName	Camilo Doval
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYY
teamID	19

David Bednar (670280) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 15

All-history rows before 20260507: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.400	1.000	-0.400	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.960	1.200	0.140	-0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.200	2.000	-1.200	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	2.000	6.000	0.000	5.000	3.1765	1.0588	0.3529	1.0588	0.0000	0.8823
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	4.000	11.000	2.000	13.000	3.6000	1.3000	0.4000	1.1000	0.2000	1.3000
season	0.20	15	15.100	6.000	18.000	5.000	18.000	3.5217	1.5000	0.3913	1.1739	0.3261	1.1739

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1350
predicted_ER	0.3770
predicted_ERA	3.3938
predicted_H	1.0960
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0870
predicted_WHIP	1.2315

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1350	0.0878	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3770	0.2451	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3938	3.3938	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.0960	0.7124	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.0000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.0870	0.7066	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2315	1.2315	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	3.52
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	3
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.2
Pitching_Pitches	26
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	18
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_TEX@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	670280
playerID	670280
playerName	David Bednar
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYY
teamID	19

Brent Headrick (687396) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 19

All-history rows before 20260507: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.158	0.000	-0.158	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.805	1.100	0.195	-0.100
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.053	3.000	0.947	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.100	1.000	4.000	1.000	6.000	1.4211	0.7895	0.1579	0.6316	0.1579	0.9474
last_10	0.35	10	11.000	2.000	9.000	2.000	8.000	1.6364	1.0000	0.1818	0.8182	0.1818	0.7273
season	0.20	19	18.100	3.000	17.000	6.000	20.000	1.4727	1.2545	0.1636	0.9273	0.3273	1.0909

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2300
predicted_ER	0.1930
predicted_ERA	1.5068
predicted_H	0.8690
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0340
predicted_WHIP	0.9562

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2300	0.1495	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1930	0.1255	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.5068	1.5068	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.8690	0.9148	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.0340	1.3721	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9562	0.9562	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.47
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	3
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_TEX@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	687396
playerID	687396
playerName	Brent Headrick
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYY
teamID	19

Fernando Cruz (518585) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 17

All-history rows before 20260507: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.235	0.000	-0.235	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.529	1.000	0.471	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.176	1.000	-1.176	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	0.000	4.000	2.000	5.000	0.000	0.0000	1.2857	0.0000	0.8571	0.4286	1.0714	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.100	3.000	10.000	6.000	12.000	2.000	3.2400	1.9200	0.3600	1.2000	0.7200	1.4400	0.2400
season	0.20	17	13.200	4.000	11.000	10.000	20.000	2.000	2.6341	1.5366	0.2927	0.8049	0.7317	1.4634	0.1463

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4830
predicted_ER	0.1510
predicted_ERA	1.6608
predicted_H	0.7890
predicted_HR	0.0930
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	1.0440
predicted_WHIP	1.5579

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4830	0.3140	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1510	0.0982	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.6608	1.6608	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7890	0.5129	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0930	0.0605	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.0440	0.6786	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5579	1.5579	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.63
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	26
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_TEX@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	518585
playerID	518585
playerName	Fernando Cruz
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYY
teamID	19

Tim Hill (657612) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260507: 16

All-history rows before 20260507: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.125	0.000	-0.125
predicted_IP	0.100	0.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.750	0.100	-0.650
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.375	0.000	-0.375

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 0.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.100	0.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	0.000	0.0000	1.5000	0.0000	0.9000	0.6000	0.6000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.100	2.000	7.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	2.1600	1.0800	0.2400	0.8400	0.2400	0.3600	0.1200
season	0.20	16	14.100	2.000	9.000	2.000	6.000	1.000	1.2558	0.7674	0.1395	0.6279	0.1395	0.4186	0.0698

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2800
predicted_ER	0.0820
predicted_ERA	1.0072
predicted_H	0.6050
predicted_HR	0.0410
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.3520
predicted_WHIP	1.2065

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2800	0.1820	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.0820	0.0533	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.0072	1.0072	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6050	0.3932	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0410	0.0267	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.3520	0.2288	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2065	1.2065	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	12

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.26
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	6
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	5
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_TEX@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	657612
playerID	657612
playerName	Tim Hill
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYY
teamID	19