Ultra Detailed Player Audit - 20260506

Player-by-player trace from JSON pipeline. Metric-by-metric comparison without wide horizontal table dependency.

Windows shown explicitly: Team recent form = latest 10 games from enhanced analysis. Player historical helpers = 75 games; balancing rates = 162 games (as implemented in services).

Color guide: Red = final above baseline, Blue = final below baseline, Green = no difference.

20260506_ATL@SEA 20260506_BAL@MIA 20260506_BOS@DET 20260506_CHW@LAA 20260506_CIN@CHC 20260506_CLE@KC 20260506_LAD@HOU 20260506_MIL@STL 20260506_MIN@WAS 20260506_NYM@COL 20260506_OAK@PHI 20260506_PIT@ARI 20260506_SD@SF 20260506_TEX@NYY 20260506_TOR@TB

20260506_ATL@SEA

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "confidence": 0.56, "home_win_probability": 0.43999999999999995, "away_win_probability": 0.56, "predicted_score_text": "ATL 4 - 3 SEA", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to final winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "predicted_score_text": "ATL 5 - 4 SEA", "confidence": 0.56, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score", "final_prediction_synced": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "ATL 5 - 4 SEA", "winner": "ATL"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "ATL 4 - 3 SEA", "winner": "ATL"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": -1, "home_run_delta": -1, "total_run_delta": -2, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"}}

Factors Considered: Historical team performance, Recent form (latest 10 games), Head-to-head matchup history, Player-level statistics, Recent 10-game performance trends, Pitcher recent form analysis, Team hitting/pitching streaks, Low-score probability modeling, Environmental factors, Home field advantage, Game timing factors, Seasonal adjustments, Machine learning models

Away Team: ATL

Drake Baldwin (686948) · BATTER · DH · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 37

All-history rows before 20260506: 37

System season_avg: 0.3050

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3046

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.135	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.135	0.000	-0.135	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.110	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	4.081	4.000	0.919	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.297	0.200	0.200	Hitting_AVG	0.305	0.000	-0.105	0.200
predicted_BB	0.432	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.432	0.000	-0.432	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.220	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.243	0.000	-0.243	1.000
predicted_HR	0.300	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.243	0.000	0.757	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.385	0.200	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.382	0.000	-0.182	0.200
predicted_R	0.892	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.892	0.000	0.108	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.860	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.811	0.000	0.189	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.552	0.800	0.800	Hitting_SLG	0.517	0.000	0.283	0.800
predicted_SO	0.892	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.892	1.000	0.108	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.135	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.110	-
predicted_AVG	0.297	-
predicted_BB	0.432	-
predicted_H	1.220	-
predicted_HR	0.300	-
predicted_OBP	0.385	-
predicted_R	0.892	-
predicted_RBI	0.860	-
predicted_SLG	0.552	-
predicted_SO	0.892	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.145	0.010
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.085	-0.025
predicted_AVG	0.297	0.000
predicted_BB	0.439	0.007
predicted_H	1.214	-0.006
predicted_HBP	0.140	-
predicted_HR	0.297	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.385	0.000
predicted_R	0.741	-0.151
predicted_RBI	0.856	-0.004
predicted_SLG	0.552	0.000
predicted_SO	0.925	0.033

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.11), rates preserved: AVG=0.295 HR/AB=0.072

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 4.110

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	3.000	2.000	5.000	0.2857	0.3750	0.6190	0.2857	0.0952	0.2381	0.0952	0.2381
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	12.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	6.000	5.000	9.000	0.3077	0.4000	0.4872	0.3077	0.0513	0.1795	0.1282	0.2308
season	0.20	37	-	151.000	46.000	5.000	9.000	30.000	33.000	16.000	33.000	0.3046	0.3824	0.5166	0.3046	0.0596	0.1987	0.1060	0.2185

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1510
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.0710
predicted_AVG	0.2972
predicted_BB	0.4430
predicted_H	1.2100
predicted_HBP	0.1400
predicted_HR	0.2960
predicted_OBP	0.3852
predicted_R	0.6590
predicted_RBI	0.8540
predicted_SLG	0.5524
predicted_SO	0.9430

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1350	0.1510	0.1454	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1100	4.0710	4.0846	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2970	0.2972	0.2971	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4320	0.4430	0.4392	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2200	1.2100	1.2135	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1400	0.1400	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3000	0.2960	0.2974	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3850	0.3852	0.3851	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8920	0.6590	0.7406	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.8600	0.8540	0.8561	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5520	0.5524	0.5523	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8920	0.9430	0.9251	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.305

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260505_ATL@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	686948
playerID	686948
playerName	Drake Baldwin
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	ATL
teamID	2

Michael Harris II (671739) · BATTER · LF · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 28

All-history rows before 20260506: 28

System season_avg: 0.2920

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2925

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.107	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.107	0.000	-0.107	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.786	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.786	4.000	0.214	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.292	0.000	0.208	0.500
predicted_BB	0.179	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.179	0.000	-0.179	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.890	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	1.107	0.000	0.893	2.000
predicted_HR	0.110	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.214	0.000	0.786	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.273	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.321	0.000	0.179	0.500
predicted_R	0.429	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.429	0.000	0.571	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.430	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.643	0.000	0.357	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.357	1.250	1.250	Hitting_SLG	0.491	0.000	0.759	1.250
predicted_SO	0.714	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.714	0.000	0.286	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.107	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.786	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.179	-
predicted_H	0.890	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.273	-
predicted_R	0.429	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.357	-
predicted_SO	0.714	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.095	-0.012
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.735	-0.051
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000
predicted_BB	0.168	-0.011
predicted_H	0.900	0.010
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.273	-0.000
predicted_R	0.332	-0.097
predicted_RBI	0.432	0.002
predicted_SLG	0.357	0.000
predicted_SO	0.753	0.039

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.238 HR/AB=0.029

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.1667	0.2105	0.1667	0.1667	0.0000	0.0000	0.0556	0.2778
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	12.000	2.000	2.000	9.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	0.3158	0.3250	0.5263	0.3158	0.0526	0.2368	0.0263	0.1316
season	0.20	28	-	106.000	31.000	3.000	6.000	18.000	12.000	5.000	20.000	0.2925	0.3214	0.4906	0.2924	0.0566	0.1698	0.0472	0.1887

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0890
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7070
predicted_AVG	0.2440
predicted_BB	0.1620
predicted_H	0.9050
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1100
predicted_OBP	0.2728
predicted_R	0.2790
predicted_RBI	0.4330
predicted_SLG	0.3573
predicted_SO	0.7740

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1070	0.0890	0.0953	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7860	3.7070	3.7346	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2440	0.2440	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1790	0.1620	0.1679	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8900	0.9050	0.8998	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1100	0.1100	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2730	0.2728	0.2729	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4290	0.2790	0.3315	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.4330	0.4320	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3570	0.3573	0.3572	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7140	0.7740	0.7530	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.292

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260505_ATL@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	671739
playerID	671739
playerName	Michael Harris II
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	ATL
teamID	2

Ozzie Albies (645277) · BATTER · 2B · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 37

All-history rows before 20260506: 37

System season_avg: 0.3290

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3287

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.216	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.216	0.000	-0.216	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.865	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.865	4.000	0.135	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.329	0.250	-0.329	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.324	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.324	0.000	0.676	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.081	0.000	-0.081	0.000
predicted_H	1.380	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.270	1.000	-1.270	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.216	0.000	-0.216	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.430	0.200	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.377	0.250	-0.177	-0.050
predicted_R	0.784	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.784	1.000	-0.784	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.660	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.622	0.000	-0.622	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.662	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.552	0.250	-0.552	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.514	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.514	1.000	0.486	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.216	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.865	-
predicted_AVG	0.370	-
predicted_BB	0.324	-
predicted_H	1.380	-
predicted_HR	0.230	-
predicted_OBP	0.430	-
predicted_R	0.784	-
predicted_RBI	0.660	-
predicted_SLG	0.662	-
predicted_SO	0.514	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.335	0.119
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.831	-0.034
predicted_AVG	0.370	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.446	0.122
predicted_H	1.399	0.020
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.235	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.430	0.000
predicted_R	0.978	0.194
predicted_RBI	0.670	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.662	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.513	-0.001

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.87), rates preserved: AVG=0.362 HR/AB=0.061

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.865

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	3.000	3.000	0.3684	0.4348	0.6316	0.3684	0.0526	0.1579	0.1579	0.1579
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	15.000	5.000	3.000	8.000	11.000	5.000	4.000	0.3947	0.4545	0.7632	0.3947	0.0790	0.2105	0.1316	0.1053
season	0.20	37	-	143.000	47.000	8.000	8.000	23.000	29.000	12.000	19.000	0.3287	0.3774	0.5524	0.3287	0.0559	0.1608	0.0839	0.1329

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3990
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.8130
predicted_AVG	0.3697
predicted_BB	0.5110
predicted_H	1.4100
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.2380
predicted_OBP	0.4302
predicted_R	1.0830
predicted_RBI	0.6750
predicted_SLG	0.6618
predicted_SO	0.5130

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2160	0.3990	0.3350	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8650	3.8130	3.8312	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3700	0.3697	0.3698	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3240	0.5110	0.4456	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.3800	1.4100	1.3995	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2300	0.2380	0.2352	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4300	0.4302	0.4301	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7840	1.0830	0.9783	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6600	0.6750	0.6698	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6620	0.6618	0.6619	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5140	0.5130	0.5133	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.329

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260505_ATL@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	645277
playerID	645277
playerName	Ozzie Albies
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	ATL
teamID	2

Austin Riley (663586) · BATTER · 3B · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 36

All-history rows before 20260506: 36

System season_avg: 0.2100

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2101

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.833	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.833	4.000	-0.833	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.249	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.210	0.000	0.123	0.333
predicted_BB	0.361	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.361	0.000	0.639	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.830	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.806	0.000	0.194	1.000
predicted_HR	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.139	0.000	-0.139	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.277	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.286	0.000	0.214	0.500
predicted_R	0.528	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.528	0.000	0.472	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.680	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.611	0.000	-0.611	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.486	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.362	0.000	-0.029	0.333
predicted_SO	1.139	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.139	2.000	-1.139	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.833	-
predicted_AVG	0.249	-
predicted_BB	0.361	-
predicted_H	0.830	-
predicted_HR	0.240	-
predicted_OBP	0.277	-
predicted_R	0.528	-
predicted_RBI	0.680	-
predicted_SLG	0.486	-
predicted_SO	1.139	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.103	-0.064
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.816	-0.017
predicted_AVG	0.249	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.254	-0.107
predicted_H	0.905	0.075
predicted_HBP	0.011	-
predicted_HR	0.265	0.025
predicted_OBP	0.277	0.000
predicted_R	0.579	0.051
predicted_RBI	0.747	0.067
predicted_SLG	0.486	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.402	0.263

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.83), rates preserved: AVG=0.236 HR/AB=0.069

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.833

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	6.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	4.000	1.000	8.000	0.3158	0.3333	0.6316	0.3158	0.1053	0.2632	0.0526	0.4210
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	7.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	4.000	1.000	17.000	0.1842	0.2000	0.3684	0.1842	0.0526	0.1579	0.0263	0.4474
season	0.20	36	-	138.000	29.000	6.000	5.000	22.000	19.000	13.000	41.000	0.2101	0.2857	0.3623	0.2101	0.0362	0.1594	0.0942	0.2971

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0680
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.8070
predicted_AVG	0.2486
predicted_BB	0.1970
predicted_H	0.9460
predicted_HBP	0.0110
predicted_HR	0.2780
predicted_OBP	0.2771
predicted_R	0.6060
predicted_RBI	0.7830
predicted_SLG	0.4856
predicted_SO	1.5430

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.0680	0.1027	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8330	3.8070	3.8161	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2490	0.2486	0.2487	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3610	0.1970	0.2544	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8300	0.9460	0.9054	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0110	0.0110	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2400	0.2780	0.2647	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2770	0.2771	0.2771	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5280	0.6060	0.5787	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6800	0.7830	0.7470	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4860	0.4856	0.4857	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1390	1.5430	1.4016	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260505_ATL@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	663586
playerID	663586
playerName	Austin Riley
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	ATL
teamID	2

Matt Olson (621566) · BATTER · 1B · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 37

All-history rows before 20260506: 37

System season_avg: 0.3080

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3077

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.405	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.405	0.000	-0.405	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.865	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.865	3.000	-0.865	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.366	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.308	0.667	0.026	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.568	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.568	1.000	0.432	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.370	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.189	2.000	-0.189	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.670	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.351	1.000	0.649	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.480	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.392	0.750	0.108	-0.250
predicted_R	0.946	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.946	2.000	0.054	-1.000
predicted_RBI	1.050	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	0.892	1.000	1.108	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	1.012	1.333	1.333	Hitting_SLG	0.685	1.667	0.648	-0.333
predicted_SO	1.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.405	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.865	-
predicted_AVG	0.366	-
predicted_BB	0.568	-
predicted_H	1.370	-
predicted_HR	0.670	-
predicted_OBP	0.480	-
predicted_R	0.946	-
predicted_RBI	1.050	-
predicted_SLG	1.012	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.403	-0.002
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.704	-0.161
predicted_AVG	0.366	0.000
predicted_BB	0.750	0.182
predicted_H	1.341	-0.029
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.654	-0.016
predicted_OBP	0.480	0.000
predicted_R	1.222	0.276
predicted_RBI	1.028	-0.022
predicted_SLG	1.012	0.000
predicted_SO	0.813	-0.187

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.87), rates preserved: AVG=0.347 HR/AB=0.169

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.865

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	7.000	2.000	4.000	5.000	8.000	5.000	3.000	0.3889	0.5217	1.1667	0.3889	0.2222	0.2778	0.2778	0.1667
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	13.000	4.000	6.000	11.000	13.000	8.000	7.000	0.3714	0.4773	1.0000	0.3714	0.1714	0.3143	0.2286	0.2000
season	0.20	37	-	143.000	44.000	15.000	13.000	33.000	35.000	21.000	37.000	0.3077	0.3916	0.6853	0.3077	0.0909	0.2308	0.1469	0.2587

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.4020
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.6180
predicted_AVG	0.3665
predicted_BB	0.8480
predicted_H	1.3260
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.6450
predicted_OBP	0.4801
predicted_R	1.3710
predicted_RBI	1.0170
predicted_SLG	1.0121
predicted_SO	0.7120

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.4050	0.4020	0.4031	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8650	3.6180	3.7045	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3660	0.3665	0.3663	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5680	0.8480	0.7500	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.3700	1.3260	1.3414	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.6700	0.6450	0.6538	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4800	0.4801	0.4801	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.9460	1.3710	1.2222	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	1.0500	1.0170	1.0285	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	1.0120	1.0121	1.0121	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.7120	0.8128	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.308

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260505_ATL@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	621566
playerID	621566
playerName	Matt Olson
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	ATL
teamID	2

Mauricio Dubón (643289) · BATTER · CF · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 35

All-history rows before 20260506: 35

System season_avg: 0.2680

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2677

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.257	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.257	1.000	-0.257	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.057	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.057	0.000	-0.057	0.000
predicted_AB	3.629	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.629	3.000	-0.629	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.234	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.268	0.667	-0.268	-0.667
predicted_BB	0.286	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.286	1.000	0.714	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.057	0.000	-0.057	0.000
predicted_H	0.800	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.971	2.000	-0.971	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.057	0.000	-0.057	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.344	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.331	0.750	-0.081	-0.500
predicted_R	0.486	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.486	0.000	-0.486	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.740	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.571	2.000	-0.571	-2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.399	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.417	1.000	-0.417	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.629	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.629	0.000	0.371	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.257	-
predicted_3B	0.057	-
predicted_AB	3.629	-
predicted_AVG	0.234	-
predicted_BB	0.286	-
predicted_H	0.800	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.344	-
predicted_R	0.486	-
predicted_RBI	0.740	-
predicted_SLG	0.399	-
predicted_SO	0.629	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.227	-0.030
predicted_3B	0.132	0.075
predicted_AB	3.591	-0.038
predicted_AVG	0.234	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.462	0.176
predicted_H	0.822	0.022
predicted_HBP	0.047	-
predicted_HR	0.011	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.344	-0.000
predicted_R	0.383	-0.103
predicted_RBI	0.761	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.399	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.509	-0.120

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.63), rates preserved: AVG=0.227 HR/AB=0.003

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=11.0, BvP AVG=0.364)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	5.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	0.2222	0.3636	0.3889	0.2222	0.0000	0.2778	0.2222	0.1111
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	8.000	2.000	2.000	0.000	6.000	4.000	4.000	4.000	0.2286	0.3250	0.4000	0.2286	0.0000	0.1714	0.1143	0.1143
season	0.20	35	-	127.000	34.000	9.000	2.000	2.000	20.000	17.000	10.000	22.000	0.2677	0.3309	0.4173	0.2677	0.0158	0.1575	0.0787	0.1732

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2110
predicted_3B	0.1720
predicted_AB	3.5710
predicted_AVG	0.2335
predicted_BB	0.5560
predicted_H	0.8340
predicted_HBP	0.0470
predicted_HR	0.0110
predicted_OBP	0.3436
predicted_R	0.3280
predicted_RBI	0.7730
predicted_SLG	0.3985
predicted_SO	0.4450

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2570	0.2110	0.2271	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0570	0.1720	0.1318	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6290	3.5710	3.5913	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2340	0.2335	0.2337	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2860	0.5560	0.4615	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8000	0.8340	0.8221	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0470	0.0470	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0110	0.0106	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3440	0.3436	0.3437	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4860	0.3280	0.3833	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7400	0.7730	0.7615	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3990	0.3985	0.3987	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6290	0.4450	0.5094	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.268

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260505_ATL@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	643289
playerID	643289
playerName	Mauricio Dubón
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	ATL
teamID	2

Sean Murphy (669221) · BATTER · C · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 1

All-history rows before 20260506: 1

System season_avg: 0.0000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.0000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	3.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.000	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.000	0.000	0.250	0.250
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.000	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.000	0.000	0.250	0.250
predicted_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.000	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.000	0.000	0.250	0.250
predicted_SO	2.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	2.000	2.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.000	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.000	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.000	-
predicted_SLG	0.000	-
predicted_SO	2.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.000	0.000
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.000	0.000
predicted_R	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.000	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	0.000

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.000 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total SO	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	1	-	3.000	2.000	0.6667
last_10	0.35	1	-	3.000	2.000	0.6667
season	0.20	1	-	3.000	2.000	0.6667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.0000
predicted_AVG	0.0000
predicted_BB	0.0000
predicted_H	0.0000
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.0000
predicted_R	0.0000
predicted_RBI	0.0000
predicted_SLG	0.0000
predicted_SO	2.0000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.0000	3.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	2.0000	2.0000	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.0

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260504_ATL@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	669221
playerID	669221
playerName	Sean Murphy
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	ATL
teamID	2

Mike Yastrzemski (573262) · BATTER · RF · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 26

All-history rows before 20260506: 26

System season_avg: 0.2040

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2043

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.154	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.577	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.577	3.000	0.423	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.211	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.204	0.333	0.046	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.269	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.269	0.000	-0.269	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.630	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.731	1.000	0.269	0.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.224	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.267	0.333	-0.017	-0.083
predicted_R	0.385	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.385	0.000	-0.385	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.231	0.000	-0.231	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.038	0.000	-0.038	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.265	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.247	0.333	0.003	-0.083
predicted_SO	0.923	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.923	1.000	1.077	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.154	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.577	-
predicted_AVG	0.211	-
predicted_BB	0.269	-
predicted_H	0.630	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.224	-
predicted_R	0.385	-
predicted_RBI	0.140	-
predicted_SLG	0.265	-
predicted_SO	0.923	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.178	0.024
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.566	-0.011
predicted_AVG	0.211	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.129	-0.140
predicted_H	0.709	0.079
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.224	-0.000
predicted_R	0.335	-0.050
predicted_RBI	0.160	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.265	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.836	-0.087

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.58), rates preserved: AVG=0.198 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, BvP AVG=0.250)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 26

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	0.2222	0.2222	0.2778	0.2222	0.0556	0.0000	0.2222
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.000	7.000	0.2000	0.2000	0.2571	0.2000	0.0286	0.0000	0.2000
season	0.20	26	-	93.000	19.000	4.000	6.000	10.000	7.000	24.000	0.2043	0.2673	0.2473	0.2043	0.0645	0.0753	0.2581

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1910
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.5600
predicted_AVG	0.2109
predicted_BB	0.0540
predicted_H	0.7510
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.2235
predicted_R	0.3080
predicted_RBI	0.1710
predicted_SLG	0.2645
predicted_SO	0.7890

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1540	0.1910	0.1781	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5770	3.5600	3.5659	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2110	0.2109	0.2109	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2690	0.0540	0.1293	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6300	0.7510	0.7087	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2240	0.2235	0.2237	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3850	0.3080	0.3349	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1400	0.1710	0.1602	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2650	0.2645	0.2647	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9230	0.7890	0.8359	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	26
Season rows before report date	26
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	26
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.204

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260505_ATL@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	573262
playerID	573262
playerName	Mike Yastrzemski
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	ATL
teamID	2

Eli White (642201) · BATTER · SS · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 15

All-history rows before 20260506: 15

System season_avg: 0.2090

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2093

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.067	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_3B	0.067	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_AB	2.867	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	2.867	4.000	1.133	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.241	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.209	0.250	-0.209	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.133	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.570	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.600	1.000	-0.600	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.276	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.239	0.250	-0.239	-0.250
predicted_R	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.467	0.000	-0.467	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.433	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.419	0.250	-0.419	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.600	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.600	1.000	1.400	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.067	-
predicted_3B	0.067	-
predicted_AB	2.867	-
predicted_AVG	0.241	-
predicted_BB	0.133	-
predicted_H	0.570	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.276	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.350	-
predicted_SLG	0.433	-
predicted_SO	0.600	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.033	-0.035
predicted_3B	0.113	0.046
predicted_AB	2.959	0.092
predicted_AVG	0.241	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.145	0.012
predicted_H	0.671	0.101
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.087	0.017
predicted_OBP	0.276	-0.000
predicted_R	0.331	-0.002
predicted_RBI	0.414	0.064
predicted_SLG	0.433	0.000
predicted_SO	0.740	0.140

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.96), rates preserved: AVG=0.227 HR/AB=0.029

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.2667	0.3125	0.4000	0.2667	0.0000	0.1333	0.0667	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	31.000	7.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	5.000	1.000	7.000	0.2258	0.2500	0.4839	0.2258	0.0645	0.1613	0.0323	0.2258
season	0.20	15	-	43.000	9.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	5.000	2.000	9.000	0.2093	0.2391	0.4186	0.2093	0.0465	0.1628	0.0465	0.2093

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0140
predicted_3B	0.1380
predicted_AB	3.0080
predicted_AVG	0.2409
predicted_BB	0.1520
predicted_H	0.7250
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0960
predicted_OBP	0.2759
predicted_R	0.3300
predicted_RBI	0.4480
predicted_SLG	0.4331
predicted_SO	0.8150

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0670	0.0140	0.0325	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0670	0.1380	0.1132	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.8670	3.0080	2.9587	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2410	0.2409	0.2409	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1330	0.1520	0.1454	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5700	0.7250	0.6707	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0960	0.0869	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2760	0.2759	0.2759	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.3300	0.3311	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3500	0.4480	0.4137	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4330	0.4331	0.4331	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6000	0.8150	0.7397	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.209

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260504_ATL@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	642201
playerID	642201
playerName	Eli White
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	ATL
teamID	2

Martín Pérez (527048) · PITCHER · Starter · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 6

All-history rows before 20260506: 6

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.167	0.000	1.833	3.000
predicted_IP	5.000	5.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.683	5.000	0.317	0.000
predicted_SO	7.000	7.000	-	Pitching_SO	3.167	5.000	3.833	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 5.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	24.000	7.000	16.000	10.000	16.000	3.000	2.6250	1.0833	0.2917	0.6667	0.4167	0.6667	0.1250
last_10	0.35	6	28.333	7.000	18.000	10.000	19.000	3.000	2.2235	0.9882	0.2471	0.6353	0.3529	0.6706	0.1059
season	0.20	6	28.333	7.000	18.000	10.000	19.000	3.000	2.2235	0.9882	0.2471	0.6353	0.3529	0.6706	0.1059

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.8150
predicted_ER	1.2710
predicted_ERA	2.4042
predicted_H	3.0890
predicted_HR	0.5450
predicted_IP	4.7570
predicted_SO	3.1820
predicted_WHIP	1.0310

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	1.8150	2.2298	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	1.2710	1.8761	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.4042	2.4042	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	3.0890	2.7078	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.5450	0.7043	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.0000	4.7570	4.8421	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	7.0000	3.1820	4.5183	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0310	1.0310	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.0
H	2
R	3
ER	3
BB	3
SO	7
HR	1
BF	20
Pitches	89

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	4
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	21
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.22
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	7
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.0
Pitching_Pitches	91
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	5
Pitching_Strikes	53
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260428_DET@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	527048
playerID	527048
playerName	Martín Pérez
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	ATL
teamID	2

Aaron Bummer (607481) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 16

All-history rows before 20260506: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.438	0.000	-0.438	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.575	0.200	0.425	0.800
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.688	1.000	-0.688	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.333	4.000	8.000	2.000	5.000	3.000	8.3077	2.3077	0.9231	1.8461	0.4615	1.1539	0.6923
last_10	0.35	10	8.000	7.000	14.000	2.000	8.000	4.000	7.8750	2.0000	0.8750	1.7500	0.2500	1.0000	0.5000
season	0.20	16	12.000	7.000	15.000	5.000	11.000	4.000	5.2500	1.6667	0.5833	1.2500	0.4167	0.9167	0.3333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3100
predicted_ER	0.6870
predicted_ERA	7.5447
predicted_H	1.3890
predicted_HR	0.4540
predicted_IP	0.8200
predicted_SO	0.8630
predicted_WHIP	2.0718

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3100	0.5515	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.6870	0.4466	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	7.5447	7.5447	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.3890	1.2529	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.4540	0.2951	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.8200	0.8830	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.8630	0.5610	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	2.0718	2.0718	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.25
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_ATL@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	607481
playerID	607481
playerName	Aaron Bummer
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ATL
teamID	2

Didier Fuentes (800311) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 5

All-history rows before 20260506: 5

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.000	0.000	-1.000	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	2.040	0.200	-1.040	0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	2.400	0.000	-1.400	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 5

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	10.667	5.000	9.000	3.000	12.000	1.000	4.2188	1.1250	0.4688	0.8438	0.2812	1.1250	0.0938
last_10	0.35	5	10.667	5.000	9.000	3.000	12.000	1.000	4.2188	1.1250	0.4688	0.8438	0.2812	1.1250	0.0938
season	0.20	5	10.667	5.000	9.000	3.000	12.000	1.000	4.2188	1.1250	0.4688	0.8438	0.2812	1.1250	0.0938

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6000
predicted_ER	1.0000
predicted_ERA	4.2188
predicted_H	1.8000
predicted_HR	0.2000
predicted_IP	2.1330
predicted_SO	2.4000
predicted_WHIP	1.1250

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.6000	0.3900	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	1.0000	0.6500	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.2188	4.2188	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.8000	1.1700	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2000	0.1300	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	2.1330	1.7365	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	2.4000	1.9100	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1250	1.1250	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	5
Season rows before report date	5
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	5
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	2
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.22
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	8
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	6
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_ATL@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	800311
playerID	800311
playerName	Didier Fuentes
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ATL
teamID	2

Reynaldo López (625643) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 7

All-history rows before 20260506: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.286	0.000	-1.286	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	3.457	1.000	-2.457	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	3.286	1.000	-3.286	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	13.667	7.000	14.000	9.000	17.000	2.000	4.6098	1.6829	0.5122	1.0244	0.6585	1.2439	0.1463
last_10	0.35	7	24.667	9.000	21.000	12.000	23.000	4.000	3.2838	1.3378	0.3649	0.8514	0.4865	0.9324	0.1622
season	0.20	7	24.667	9.000	21.000	12.000	23.000	4.000	3.2838	1.3378	0.3649	0.8514	0.4865	0.9324	0.1622

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.7870
predicted_ER	1.3660
predicted_ERA	3.8805
predicted_H	2.9440
predicted_HR	0.4910
predicted_IP	3.1680
predicted_SO	3.3980
predicted_WHIP	1.4931

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	1.7870	1.1616	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	1.3660	0.8879	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.8805	3.8805	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	2.9440	1.9136	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.4910	0.3191	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	3.1680	2.4092	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	3.3980	2.2087	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4931	1.4931	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.28
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_ATL@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	625643
playerID	625643
playerName	Reynaldo López
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ATL
teamID	2

Tyler Kinley (641755) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 17

All-history rows before 20260506: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.294	2.000	-0.294	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.900	1.000	0.100	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.059	2.000	0.941	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	4.000	7.000	3.000	8.000	2.000	7.2000	2.0000	0.8000	1.4000	0.6000	1.6000	0.4000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	4.000	8.000	6.000	13.000	2.000	3.6000	1.4000	0.4000	0.8000	0.6000	1.3000	0.2000
season	0.20	17	16.000	5.000	11.000	8.000	18.000	2.000	2.8125	1.1875	0.3125	0.6875	0.5000	1.1250	0.1250

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5730
predicted_ER	0.5560
predicted_ERA	5.0625
predicted_H	1.0350
predicted_HR	0.2720
predicted_IP	0.9880
predicted_SO	1.3840
predicted_WHIP	1.6275

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5730	0.3725	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5560	0.3614	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.0625	5.0625	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.0350	1.0227	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2720	0.1768	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.9880	0.9922	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.3840	1.5996	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.6275	1.6275	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	2.81
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	23
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L, BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_ATL@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	641755
playerID	641755
playerName	Tyler Kinley
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ATL
teamID	2

Home Team: SEA

Connor Joe (656582) · BATTER · RF · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 5

All-history rows before 20260506: 5

System season_avg: 0.2140

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2143

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.800	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	2.800	2.000	1.200	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.214	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.214	0.000	-0.214	0.000
predicted_BB	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.400	1.000	-0.400	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.600	0.000	-0.600	0.000
predicted_HR	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.312	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.312	0.333	-0.312	-0.333
predicted_R	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.800	-
predicted_AVG	0.214	-
predicted_BB	0.400	-
predicted_H	0.500	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.312	-
predicted_R	0.400	-
predicted_RBI	0.170	-
predicted_SLG	0.500	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.800	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.214	0.000
predicted_BB	0.400	0.000
predicted_H	0.565	0.065
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.190	0.019
predicted_OBP	0.312	0.000
predicted_R	0.400	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.190	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.500	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	0.000

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.80), rates preserved: AVG=0.202 HR/AB=0.068

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 5

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	0.2143	0.3125	0.5000	0.2143	0.0714	0.0714	0.1429	0.3571
last_10	0.35	5	-	14.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	0.2143	0.3125	0.5000	0.2143	0.0714	0.0714	0.1429	0.3571
season	0.20	5	-	14.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	0.2143	0.3125	0.5000	0.2143	0.0714	0.0714	0.1429	0.3571

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.8000
predicted_AVG	0.2143
predicted_BB	0.4000
predicted_H	0.6000
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.2000
predicted_OBP	0.3125
predicted_R	0.4000
predicted_RBI	0.2000
predicted_SLG	0.5000
predicted_SO	1.0000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.8000	2.8000	2.8000	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2140	0.2143	0.2142	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4000	0.4000	0.4000	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5000	0.6000	0.5650	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.2000	0.1895	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3120	0.3125	0.3123	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4000	0.4000	0.4000	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1700	0.2000	0.1895	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5000	0.5000	0.5000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	5
Season rows before report date	5
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	5
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.214

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260503_KC@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	656582
playerID	656582
playerName	Connor Joe
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	SEA
teamID	25

Jhonny Pereda (640902) · BATTER · C · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 1

All-history rows before 20260506: 1

System season_avg: 0.0000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.0000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	3.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.000	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.000	0.000	0.500	0.500
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000
predicted_HR	0.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.000	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.000	0.000	0.500	0.500
predicted_R	0.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.000	3.000	3.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	3.000	3.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.000	1.250	1.250	Hitting_SLG	0.000	0.000	1.250	1.250
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.000	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.000	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.000	-
predicted_SLG	0.000	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.000	0.000
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.000	0.000
predicted_R	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.000	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	0.000

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.000 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	3.000	3.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total SO	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	1	-	3.000	1.000	0.3333
last_10	0.35	1	-	3.000	1.000	0.3333
season	0.20	1	-	3.000	1.000	0.3333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.0000
predicted_AVG	0.0000
predicted_BB	0.0000
predicted_H	0.0000
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.0000
predicted_R	0.0000
predicted_RBI	0.0000
predicted_SLG	0.0000
predicted_SO	1.0000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.0000	3.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	3
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.0

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260503_KC@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	640902
playerID	640902
playerName	Jhonny Pereda
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	SEA
teamID	25

Leo Rivas (660844) · BATTER · 3B · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 27

All-history rows before 20260506: 27

System season_avg: 0.1330

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1325

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.037	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.037	0.000	-0.037	0.000
predicted_3B	0.037	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.037	0.000	-0.037	0.000
predicted_AB	3.074	2.000	2.000	Hitting_AB	3.074	3.000	-1.074	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.092	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_BB	0.481	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.481	0.000	0.519	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.407	0.000	-0.407	0.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.257	0.333	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.270	0.000	0.063	0.333
predicted_R	0.259	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.259	0.000	-0.259	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.185	0.000	-0.185	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.037	0.000	-0.037	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.169	0.000	-0.169	0.000
predicted_SO	1.111	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.111	0.000	-0.111	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.037	-
predicted_3B	0.037	-
predicted_AB	3.074	-
predicted_AVG	0.092	-
predicted_BB	0.481	-
predicted_H	0.230	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.257	-
predicted_R	0.259	-
predicted_RBI	0.030	-
predicted_SLG	0.100	-
predicted_SO	1.111	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.018	-0.019
predicted_3B	0.018	-0.019
predicted_AB	3.000	-0.074
predicted_AVG	0.092	0.000
predicted_BB	0.479	-0.002
predicted_H	0.259	0.029
predicted_HBP	0.183	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.257	-0.000
predicted_R	0.312	0.053
predicted_RBI	0.034	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.100	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.138	0.027

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.07), rates preserved: AVG=0.084 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	6.000	0.0714	0.2778	0.0714	0.0714	0.0000	0.2143	0.4286
last_10	0.35	10	-	31.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	11.000	0.0968	0.2222	0.0968	0.0968	0.0000	0.0968	0.3548
season	0.20	27	-	83.000	11.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	7.000	13.000	30.000	0.1325	0.2700	0.1687	0.1325	0.0602	0.1566	0.3614

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0070
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	2.9600
predicted_AVG	0.0925
predicted_BB	0.4780
predicted_H	0.2740
predicted_HBP	0.1830
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.2568
predicted_R	0.3400
predicted_RBI	0.0360
predicted_SLG	0.0998
predicted_SO	1.1520

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0370	0.0070	0.0175	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0370	0.0070	0.0175	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0740	2.9600	2.9999	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.0920	0.0925	0.0923	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4810	0.4780	0.4790	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.2300	0.2740	0.2586	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1830	0.1830	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2570	0.2568	0.2569	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2590	0.3400	0.3117	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0300	0.0360	0.0339	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1000	0.0998	0.0999	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1110	1.1520	1.1377	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.133

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260505_ATL@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	660844
playerID	660844
playerName	Leo Rivas
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	SEA
teamID	25

J.P. Crawford (641487) · BATTER · SS · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 28

All-history rows before 20260506: 28

System season_avg: 0.2120

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2121

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.107	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.107	0.000	-0.107	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.570	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.536	4.000	0.464	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.238	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.212	0.250	0.038	0.000
predicted_BB	0.786	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.786	0.000	-0.786	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.036	0.000	-0.036	0.000
predicted_H	0.850	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.750	1.000	0.250	0.000
predicted_HR	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.143	1.000	-0.143	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.359	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.366	0.250	-0.116	0.000
predicted_R	0.607	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.607	1.000	0.393	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.560	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.393	2.000	-0.393	-2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.036	0.000	-0.036	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.486	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.364	1.000	-0.114	-0.750
predicted_SO	0.714	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.714	2.000	0.286	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.107	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.570	-
predicted_AVG	0.238	-
predicted_BB	0.786	-
predicted_H	0.850	-
predicted_HR	0.290	-
predicted_OBP	0.359	-
predicted_R	0.607	-
predicted_RBI	0.560	-
predicted_SLG	0.486	-
predicted_SO	0.714	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.052	-0.055
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.744	0.174
predicted_AVG	0.238	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.738	-0.048
predicted_H	0.891	0.041
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.303	0.013
predicted_OBP	0.359	0.000
predicted_R	0.707	0.100
predicted_RBI	0.591	0.031
predicted_SLG	0.486	0.000
predicted_SO	0.690	-0.024

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.74), rates preserved: AVG=0.238 HR/AB=0.081

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=17.0, BvP AVG=0.235)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	5.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	3.000	4.000	0.2500	0.3478	0.5500	0.2500	0.1000	0.2000	0.1500	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	9.000	0.000	3.000	5.000	8.000	8.000	5.000	0.2368	0.3696	0.4737	0.2368	0.0790	0.1316	0.2105	0.1316
season	0.20	28	-	99.000	21.000	3.000	4.000	11.000	17.000	22.000	20.000	0.2121	0.3659	0.3636	0.2121	0.0404	0.1111	0.2222	0.2020

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0230
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.8370
predicted_AVG	0.2378
predicted_BB	0.7120
predicted_H	0.9130
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.3100
predicted_OBP	0.3590
predicted_R	0.7600
predicted_RBI	0.6070
predicted_SLG	0.4860
predicted_SO	0.6770

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1070	0.0230	0.0524	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5700	3.8370	3.7435	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2380	0.2378	0.2379	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7860	0.7120	0.7379	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8500	0.9130	0.8910	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2900	0.3100	0.3030	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3590	0.3590	0.3590	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6070	0.7600	0.7065	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5600	0.6070	0.5906	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4860	0.4860	0.4860	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7140	0.6770	0.6900	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.212

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260505_ATL@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	641487
playerID	641487
playerName	J.P. Crawford
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	SEA
teamID	25

Cal Raleigh (663728) · BATTER · DH · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 33

All-history rows before 20260506: 33

System season_avg: 0.1760

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1756

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.121	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.121	0.000	-0.121	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.970	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.970	4.000	0.030	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.136	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.176	0.000	-0.176	0.000
predicted_BB	0.485	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.485	0.000	-0.485	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_H	0.520	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.697	0.000	-0.697	0.000
predicted_HR	0.260	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.212	0.000	-0.212	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.217	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.262	0.000	-0.262	0.000
predicted_R	0.394	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.394	0.000	-0.394	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.550	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.515	0.000	-0.515	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.061	0.000	-0.061	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.356	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.366	0.000	-0.366	0.000
predicted_SO	1.364	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.364	3.000	-0.364	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.121	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.970	-
predicted_AVG	0.136	-
predicted_BB	0.485	-
predicted_H	0.520	-
predicted_HR	0.260	-
predicted_OBP	0.217	-
predicted_R	0.394	-
predicted_RBI	0.550	-
predicted_SLG	0.356	-
predicted_SO	1.364	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.081	-0.040
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.986	0.016
predicted_AVG	0.136	0.000
predicted_BB	0.464	-0.021
predicted_H	0.536	0.016
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.268	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.217	0.000
predicted_R	0.384	-0.010
predicted_RBI	0.572	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.356	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.499	0.135

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.99), rates preserved: AVG=0.135 HR/AB=0.067

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.970

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	9.000	0.0500	0.1304	0.2000	0.0500	0.0500	0.1500	0.1000	0.4500
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	9.000	1.000	4.000	6.000	6.000	5.000	14.000	0.2250	0.3043	0.5500	0.2250	0.1000	0.1500	0.1250	0.3500
season	0.20	33	-	131.000	23.000	4.000	7.000	17.000	13.000	16.000	45.000	0.1756	0.2617	0.3664	0.1756	0.0534	0.1298	0.1221	0.3435

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0590
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.9940
predicted_AVG	0.1364
predicted_BB	0.4520
predicted_H	0.5450
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.2720
predicted_OBP	0.2175
predicted_R	0.3790
predicted_RBI	0.5830
predicted_SLG	0.3558
predicted_SO	1.5720

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1210	0.0590	0.0807	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9700	3.9940	3.9856	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1360	0.1364	0.1363	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4850	0.4520	0.4636	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5200	0.5450	0.5363	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2600	0.2720	0.2678	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2170	0.2175	0.2173	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3940	0.3790	0.3842	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5500	0.5830	0.5715	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3560	0.3558	0.3559	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3640	1.5720	1.4992	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.176

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260505_ATL@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	663728
playerID	663728
playerName	Cal Raleigh
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	SEA
teamID	25

Cole Young (702284) · BATTER · 2B · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 37

All-history rows before 20260506: 37

System season_avg: 0.2620

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2615

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.108	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.108	0.000	-0.108	0.000
predicted_3B	0.027	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_AB	3.514	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.514	2.000	-0.514	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.219	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.262	0.000	-0.262	0.000
predicted_BB	0.324	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.324	1.000	0.676	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.054	0.000	-0.054	0.000
predicted_H	0.670	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.919	0.000	-0.919	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.081	0.000	-0.081	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.263	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.331	0.333	-0.081	-0.083
predicted_R	0.541	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.541	0.000	-0.541	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.514	0.000	-0.514	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.054	0.000	-0.054	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.291	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.377	0.000	-0.377	0.000
predicted_SO	0.946	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.946	2.000	1.054	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.108	-
predicted_3B	0.027	-
predicted_AB	3.514	-
predicted_AVG	0.219	-
predicted_BB	0.324	-
predicted_H	0.670	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.263	-
predicted_R	0.541	-
predicted_RBI	0.300	-
predicted_SLG	0.291	-
predicted_SO	0.946	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.098	-0.010
predicted_3B	0.013	-0.014
predicted_AB	3.559	0.045
predicted_AVG	0.219	0.000
predicted_BB	0.238	-0.086
predicted_H	0.745	0.075
predicted_HBP	0.046	-
predicted_HR	0.047	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.263	-0.000
predicted_R	0.374	-0.167
predicted_RBI	0.332	0.032
predicted_SLG	0.291	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.171	0.226

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.56), rates preserved: AVG=0.209 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	8.000	0.1111	0.1579	0.1111	0.1111	0.0000	0.0000	0.0556	0.4444
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	12.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	7.000	5.000	1.000	11.000	0.3333	0.3590	0.4722	0.3333	0.0278	0.1944	0.0278	0.3056
season	0.20	37	-	130.000	34.000	4.000	1.000	3.000	19.000	20.000	12.000	35.000	0.2615	0.3310	0.3769	0.2615	0.0231	0.1462	0.0923	0.2692

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0920
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.5830
predicted_AVG	0.2190
predicted_BB	0.1910
predicted_H	0.7850
predicted_HBP	0.0460
predicted_HR	0.0510
predicted_OBP	0.2629
predicted_R	0.2840
predicted_RBI	0.3490
predicted_SLG	0.2906
predicted_SO	1.2930

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1080	0.0920	0.0976	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0270	0.0060	0.0134	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5140	3.5830	3.5589	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2190	0.2190	0.2190	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3240	0.1910	0.2376	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6700	0.7850	0.7448	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0460	0.0460	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0510	0.0471	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2630	0.2629	0.2629	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5410	0.2840	0.3740	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3000	0.3490	0.3318	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2910	0.2906	0.2907	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9460	1.2930	1.1715	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.262

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260505_ATL@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	702284
playerID	702284
playerName	Cole Young
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	SEA
teamID	25

Julio Rodríguez (677594) · BATTER · CF · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 37

All-history rows before 20260506: 37

System season_avg: 0.2600

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2603

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.189	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.189	0.000	-0.189	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.946	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.946	4.000	0.054	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.298	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.260	0.000	-0.260	0.000
predicted_BB	0.351	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.351	0.000	-0.351	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_H	1.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.027	0.000	-1.027	0.000
predicted_HR	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.108	0.000	-0.108	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.329	0.000	-0.329	0.000
predicted_R	0.459	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.459	0.000	-0.459	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.670	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.432	0.000	-0.432	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.081	0.000	-0.081	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.585	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.390	0.000	-0.390	0.000
predicted_SO	0.973	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.973	2.000	0.027	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.189	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.946	-
predicted_AVG	0.298	-
predicted_BB	0.351	-
predicted_H	1.140	-
predicted_HR	0.280	-
predicted_OBP	0.333	-
predicted_R	0.459	-
predicted_RBI	0.670	-
predicted_SLG	0.585	-
predicted_SO	0.973	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.238	0.049
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.065	0.119
predicted_AVG	0.298	0.000
predicted_BB	0.252	-0.099
predicted_H	1.200	0.060
predicted_HBP	0.011	-
predicted_HR	0.297	0.017
predicted_OBP	0.333	-0.000
predicted_R	0.554	0.095
predicted_RBI	0.706	0.036
predicted_SLG	0.585	0.000
predicted_SO	0.967	-0.006

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.06), rates preserved: AVG=0.295 HR/AB=0.073

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, BvP AVG=0.100)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.946

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	0.3000	0.3333	0.6500	0.3000	0.1000	0.2000	0.0500	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	44.000	14.000	4.000	3.000	8.000	7.000	1.000	9.000	0.3182	0.3333	0.6136	0.3182	0.0682	0.1818	0.0227	0.2046
season	0.20	37	-	146.000	38.000	7.000	4.000	16.000	17.000	13.000	36.000	0.2603	0.3292	0.3904	0.2603	0.0274	0.1096	0.0890	0.2466

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2640
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.1290
predicted_AVG	0.2984
predicted_BB	0.1990
predicted_H	1.2320
predicted_HBP	0.0110
predicted_HR	0.3070
predicted_OBP	0.3325
predicted_R	0.6050
predicted_RBI	0.7250
predicted_SLG	0.5853
predicted_SO	0.9640

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1890	0.2640	0.2378	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9460	4.1290	4.0649	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2980	0.2984	0.2983	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3510	0.1990	0.2522	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1400	1.2320	1.1998	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0110	0.0110	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2800	0.3070	0.2975	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3330	0.3325	0.3327	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4590	0.6050	0.5539	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6700	0.7250	0.7057	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5850	0.5853	0.5852	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9730	0.9640	0.9671	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.26

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260505_ATL@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	677594
playerID	677594
playerName	Julio Rodríguez
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	SEA
teamID	25

Josh Naylor (647304) · BATTER · 1B · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 34

All-history rows before 20260506: 34

System season_avg: 0.2330

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2331

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.088	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.088	0.000	-0.088	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.912	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.912	3.000	-0.912	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.318	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.233	0.667	0.100	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.353	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.353	1.000	0.647	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_H	1.200	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.912	2.000	0.088	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.361	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.299	0.750	0.201	-0.250
predicted_R	0.235	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.235	0.000	0.765	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.176	2.000	-0.176	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.424	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.346	0.667	-0.013	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.735	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.735	1.000	0.265	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.088	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.912	-
predicted_AVG	0.318	-
predicted_BB	0.353	-
predicted_H	1.200	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.361	-
predicted_R	0.235	-
predicted_RBI	0.500	-
predicted_SLG	0.424	-
predicted_SO	0.735	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.123	0.035
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.958	0.046
predicted_AVG	0.318	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.296	-0.057
predicted_H	1.243	0.043
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.093	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.361	0.000
predicted_R	0.181	-0.054
predicted_RBI	0.516	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.424	0.000
predicted_SO	0.769	0.034

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.96), rates preserved: AVG=0.314 HR/AB=0.023

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.912

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	0.3500	0.3810	0.4000	0.3500	0.0000	0.1000	0.0500	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	13.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	3.000	3.000	8.000	0.3250	0.3721	0.5000	0.3250	0.0500	0.1750	0.0750	0.2000
season	0.20	34	-	133.000	31.000	3.000	4.000	17.000	8.000	12.000	25.000	0.2331	0.2993	0.3459	0.2331	0.0301	0.1278	0.0902	0.1880

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1420
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.9820
predicted_AVG	0.3179
predicted_BB	0.2660
predicted_H	1.2660
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0940
predicted_OBP	0.3615
predicted_R	0.1520
predicted_RBI	0.5250
predicted_SLG	0.4242
predicted_SO	0.7870

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0880	0.1420	0.1231	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9120	3.9820	3.9575	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3180	0.3179	0.3179	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3530	0.2660	0.2964	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2000	1.2660	1.2429	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.0940	0.0926	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3610	0.3615	0.3613	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2350	0.1520	0.1810	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5000	0.5250	0.5163	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4240	0.4242	0.4241	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7350	0.7870	0.7688	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.233

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	2
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260505_ATL@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	647304
playerID	647304
playerName	Josh Naylor
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	SEA
teamID	25

Randy Arozarena (668227) · BATTER · LF · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 37

All-history rows before 20260506: 37

System season_avg: 0.2650

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2652

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.243	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.243	0.000	-0.243	0.000
predicted_3B	0.027	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_AB	3.568	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.568	4.000	-0.568	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.173	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.265	0.000	-0.265	0.000
predicted_BB	0.459	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.459	0.000	0.541	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_H	0.580	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.946	0.000	-0.946	0.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.081	0.000	-0.081	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.264	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.357	0.000	-0.107	0.250
predicted_R	0.649	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.649	0.000	-0.649	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.210	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.324	0.000	-0.324	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.216	0.000	-0.216	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.348	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.417	0.000	-0.417	0.000
predicted_SO	0.973	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.973	2.000	0.027	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.243	-
predicted_3B	0.027	-
predicted_AB	3.568	-
predicted_AVG	0.173	-
predicted_BB	0.459	-
predicted_H	0.580	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.264	-
predicted_R	0.649	-
predicted_RBI	0.210	-
predicted_SLG	0.348	-
predicted_SO	0.973	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.163	-0.080
predicted_3B	0.036	0.009
predicted_AB	3.562	-0.006
predicted_AVG	0.173	0.000
predicted_BB	0.452	-0.007
predicted_H	0.603	0.023
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.137	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.264	-0.000
predicted_R	0.542	-0.107
predicted_RBI	0.220	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.348	0.000
predicted_SO	1.172	0.199

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.57), rates preserved: AVG=0.169 HR/AB=0.038

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=17.0, BvP AVG=0.235)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	0.1111	0.2000	0.2778	0.1111	0.0556	0.0556	0.1111	0.3889
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	5.000	13.000	0.2000	0.2927	0.4000	0.2000	0.0286	0.0571	0.1429	0.3714
season	0.20	37	-	132.000	35.000	9.000	1.000	3.000	12.000	24.000	17.000	36.000	0.2652	0.3571	0.4167	0.2651	0.0227	0.0909	0.1288	0.2727

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1200
predicted_3B	0.0410
predicted_AB	3.5590
predicted_AVG	0.1730
predicted_BB	0.4480
predicted_H	0.6160
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.1410
predicted_OBP	0.2639
predicted_R	0.4850
predicted_RBI	0.2250
predicted_SLG	0.3483
predicted_SO	1.2790

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2430	0.1200	0.1630	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0270	0.0410	0.0361	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5680	3.5590	3.5621	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1730	0.1730	0.1730	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4590	0.4480	0.4518	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5800	0.6160	0.6034	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1410	0.1371	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2640	0.2639	0.2639	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6490	0.4850	0.5424	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2100	0.2250	0.2198	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3480	0.3483	0.3482	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9730	1.2790	1.1719	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.265

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260505_ATL@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	668227
playerID	668227
playerName	Randy Arozarena
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	SEA
teamID	25

Bryan Woo (693433) · PITCHER · Starter · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 7

All-history rows before 20260506: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	3.000	6.000	-1.000	-4.000
predicted_IP	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.857	6.000	-2.857	-3.000
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_SO	4.143	2.000	-1.143	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 3.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	28.000	19.000	33.000	4.000	14.000	6.000	6.1071	1.3214	0.6786	1.1786	0.1429	0.5000	0.2143
last_10	0.35	7	41.000	21.000	38.000	6.000	29.000	6.000	4.6098	1.0732	0.5122	0.9268	0.1463	0.7073	0.1463
season	0.20	7	41.000	21.000	38.000	6.000	29.000	6.000	4.6098	1.0732	0.5122	0.9268	0.1463	0.7073	0.1463

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.8310
predicted_ER	3.3710
predicted_ERA	5.2836
predicted_H	5.9720
predicted_HR	1.0160
predicted_IP	5.7410
predicted_SO	3.5250
predicted_WHIP	1.1849

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.8310	1.2401	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	3.3710	2.8911	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.2836	5.2836	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	5.9720	5.2818	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	3.0000	1.0160	1.7104	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	3.0000	5.7410	4.7816	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	3.5250	3.3413	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1849	1.1849	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	3.0
H	4
R	2
ER	2
BB	2
SO	3
HR	3
BF	15
Pitches	73

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	25
Pitching_ER	6
Pitching_ERA	4.61
Pitching_Flyouts	5
Pitching_Groundouts	4
Pitching_H	7
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	84
Pitching_R	6
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	60
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260501_KC@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	693433
playerID	693433
playerName	Bryan Woo
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	SEA
teamID	25

Alex Hoppe (695380) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 3

All-history rows before 20260506: 3

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.067	1.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	2.333	1.000	-0.333	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 3

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	3	3.667	3.000	3.000	3.000	7.000	7.3636	1.6364	0.8182	0.8182	0.8182	1.9091
last_10	0.35	3	3.667	3.000	3.000	3.000	7.000	7.3636	1.6364	0.8182	0.8182	0.8182	1.9091
season	0.20	3	3.667	3.000	3.000	3.000	7.000	7.3636	1.6364	0.8182	0.8182	0.8182	1.9091

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.0000
predicted_ER	1.0000
predicted_ERA	7.3636
predicted_H	1.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.2220
predicted_SO	2.3330
predicted_WHIP	1.6364

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	7.3636	7.3636	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	1.0000	1.3500	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.2220	1.1443	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	2.3330	2.2165	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.6364	1.6364	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	3
Season rows before report date	3
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	3
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	2
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	7.36
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_KC@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	695380
playerID	695380
playerName	Alex Hoppe
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SEA
teamID	25

Andrés Muñoz (662253) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 16

All-history rows before 20260506: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.625	1.000	-0.625	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.894	1.000	0.106	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.562	2.000	-0.562	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	8.000	1.000	3.6000	1.2000	0.4000	0.8000	0.4000	1.6000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	8.000	10.000	3.000	16.000	2.000	8.0000	1.4444	0.8889	1.1111	0.3333	1.7778	0.2222
season	0.20	16	15.000	10.000	14.000	7.000	25.000	3.000	6.0000	1.4000	0.6667	0.9333	0.4667	1.6667	0.2000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3710
predicted_ER	0.5950
predicted_ERA	5.6200
predicted_H	0.8910
predicted_HR	0.1980
predicted_IP	0.9530
predicted_SO	1.5960
predicted_WHIP	1.3255

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3710	0.2412	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5950	0.3867	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.6200	5.6200	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.8910	0.9292	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1980	0.1287	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.9530	0.9694	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.5960	1.3874	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3255	1.3255	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	6.00
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	23
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_ATL@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	662253
playerID	662253
playerName	Andrés Muñoz
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SEA
teamID	25

Cooper Criswell (681867) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 12

All-history rows before 20260506: 12

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.258	1.000	-0.258	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.167	1.000	-1.167	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.333	2.000	3.000	0.000	6.000	1.000	3.3750	0.5625	0.3750	0.5625	0.0000	1.1250	0.1875
last_10	0.35	10	11.333	3.000	8.000	2.000	8.000	2.000	2.3824	0.8824	0.2647	0.7059	0.1765	0.7059	0.1765
season	0.20	12	15.333	4.000	11.000	3.000	14.000	3.000	2.3478	0.9130	0.2609	0.7174	0.1956	0.9130	0.1956

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1140
predicted_ER	0.3550
predicted_ERA	2.8222
predicted_H	0.7290
predicted_HR	0.2100
predicted_IP	1.1320
predicted_SO	1.0600
predicted_WHIP	0.7446

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1140	0.0741	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3550	0.2307	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.8222	2.8222	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7290	0.4738	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2100	0.1365	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.1320	1.0858	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.0600	0.6890	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.7446	0.7446	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	10

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.35
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260502_KC@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	681867
playerID	681867
playerName	Cooper Criswell
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SEA
teamID	25

Eduard Bazardo (660825) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 17

All-history rows before 20260506: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.729	0.200	0.271	0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.706	1.000	0.294	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.667	0.000	3.000	0.000	3.000	0.0000	0.6429	0.0000	0.6429	0.0000	0.6429
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	1.000	6.000	2.000	6.000	1.0000	0.8889	0.1111	0.6667	0.2222	0.6667
season	0.20	17	15.667	2.000	11.000	5.000	12.000	1.1489	1.0213	0.1277	0.7021	0.3191	0.7660

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1300
predicted_ER	0.0590
predicted_ERA	0.5798
predicted_H	0.6100
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	0.9190
predicted_SO	0.6210
predicted_WHIP	0.8047

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.1300	0.4345	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.0590	0.0384	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.5798	0.5798	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6100	0.3965	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.9190	0.9474	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.6210	0.7536	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.8047	0.8047	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.15
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	6
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_ATL@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	660825
playerID	660825
playerName	Eduard Bazardo
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SEA
teamID	25

Jose A. Ferrer (678606) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 19

All-history rows before 20260506: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.211	0.000	-0.211	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.837	1.000	0.163	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.789	2.000	-0.789	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	1.000	4.000	0.000	5.000	1.8000	0.8000	0.2000	0.8000	0.0000	1.0000
last_10	0.35	10	11.000	2.000	14.000	2.000	9.000	1.6364	1.4545	0.1818	1.2727	0.1818	0.8182
season	0.20	18	18.000	4.000	22.000	3.000	15.000	2.0000	1.3889	0.2222	1.2222	0.1667	0.8333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1000
predicted_ER	0.2050
predicted_ERA	1.7827
predicted_H	1.0870
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0350
predicted_SO	0.9350
predicted_WHIP	1.1469

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1000	0.0650	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2050	0.1333	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.7827	1.7827	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.0870	0.7066	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0350	1.0227	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.9350	0.6078	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1469	1.1469	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	9

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.00
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	10
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_ATL@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	678606
playerID	678606
playerName	Jose A. Ferrer
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SEA
teamID	25

Nick Davila (689546) · PITCHER · Reliever · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 1

All-history rows before 20260506: 1

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	WHIP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	1	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.0000	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000
last_10	0.35	1	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.0000	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000
season	0.20	1	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.0000	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.0000
predicted_ER	0.0000
predicted_ERA	0.0000
predicted_H	1.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0000
predicted_WHIP	2.0000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	1.0000	0.6500	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.0000	0.3500	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.0000	0.6500	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.0000	1.3500	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	2.0000	2.0000	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.00
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_KC@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	689546
playerID	689546
playerName	Nick Davila
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SEA
teamID	25

20260506_BAL@MIA

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "confidence": 0.56, "home_win_probability": 0.56, "away_win_probability": 0.43999999999999995, "predicted_score_text": "BAL 4 - 6 MIA", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to final winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "predicted_score_text": "BAL 4 - 5 MIA", "confidence": 0.56, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score", "final_prediction_synced": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "BAL 4 - 5 MIA", "winner": "MIA"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "BAL 4 - 6 MIA", "winner": "MIA"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 1, "total_run_delta": 1, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"}}

Away Team: BAL

Samuel Basallo (694212) · BATTER · DH · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 25

All-history rows before 20260506: 25

System season_avg: 0.2450

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2447

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.120	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.120	1.000	0.880	0.000
predicted_3B	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.040	1.000	-0.040	-1.000
predicted_AB	3.760	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.760	4.000	1.240	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.309	0.200	0.200	Hitting_AVG	0.245	0.750	-0.045	-0.550
predicted_BB	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.360	0.000	-0.360	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.090	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.920	3.000	0.080	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.332	0.200	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.311	0.750	-0.111	-0.550
predicted_R	0.440	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.440	1.000	0.560	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.750	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.520	4.000	0.480	-3.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.533	0.400	0.400	Hitting_SLG	0.457	1.500	-0.057	-1.100
predicted_SO	1.080	3.000	3.000	Hitting_SO	1.080	1.000	1.920	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.120	-
predicted_3B	0.040	-
predicted_AB	3.760	-
predicted_AVG	0.309	-
predicted_BB	0.360	-
predicted_H	1.090	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.332	-
predicted_R	0.440	-
predicted_RBI	0.750	-
predicted_SLG	0.533	-
predicted_SO	1.080	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.240	0.120
predicted_3B	0.099	0.059
predicted_AB	3.943	0.183
predicted_AVG	0.309	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.222	-0.138
predicted_H	1.193	0.103
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.109	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.332	0.000
predicted_R	0.387	-0.053
predicted_RBI	0.824	0.074
predicted_SLG	0.533	0.000
predicted_SO	1.232	0.152

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.94), rates preserved: AVG=0.302 HR/AB=0.028

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 25

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	8.000	0.2857	0.2857	0.4762	0.2857	0.0000	0.2381	0.0000	0.3810
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	15.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	9.000	5.000	2.000	11.000	0.3750	0.4048	0.6500	0.3750	0.0500	0.2250	0.0500	0.2750
season	0.20	25	-	94.000	23.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	13.000	11.000	9.000	27.000	0.2447	0.3107	0.4574	0.2447	0.0532	0.1383	0.0957	0.2872

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3050
predicted_3B	0.1310
predicted_AB	4.0420
predicted_AVG	0.3088
predicted_BB	0.1480
predicted_H	1.2480
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1140
predicted_OBP	0.3324
predicted_R	0.3580
predicted_RBI	0.8630
predicted_SLG	0.5333
predicted_SO	1.3140

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1200	0.3050	0.2403	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0400	0.1310	0.0992	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7600	4.0420	3.9433	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3090	0.3088	0.3089	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3600	0.1480	0.2222	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0900	1.2480	1.1927	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1140	0.1091	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3320	0.3324	0.3323	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4400	0.3580	0.3867	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7500	0.8630	0.8235	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5330	0.5333	0.5332	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0800	1.3140	1.2321	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	25
Season rows before report date	25
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	25
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.245

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	1
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.75
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	4
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	6
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260505_BAL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	694212
playerID	694212
playerName	Samuel Basallo
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	BAL
teamID	3

Coby Mayo (691723) · BATTER · 3B · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 26

All-history rows before 20260506: 26

System season_avg: 0.1590

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1591

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.115	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.115	0.000	-0.115	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.385	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.385	4.000	1.615	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.122	0.400	0.400	Hitting_AVG	0.159	0.000	0.241	0.400
predicted_BB	0.308	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.308	0.000	-0.308	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.340	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.538	0.000	1.462	2.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.115	0.000	-0.115	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.136	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.229	0.000	0.171	0.400
predicted_R	0.308	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.308	0.000	-0.308	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.423	0.000	-0.423	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.038	0.000	-0.038	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.252	0.400	0.400	Hitting_SLG	0.295	0.000	0.105	0.400
predicted_SO	1.077	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.077	1.000	-0.077	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.115	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.385	-
predicted_AVG	0.122	-
predicted_BB	0.308	-
predicted_H	0.340	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.136	-
predicted_R	0.308	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.252	-
predicted_SO	1.077	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.077	-0.038
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.334	-0.051
predicted_AVG	0.122	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.147	-0.161
predicted_H	0.380	0.040
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.120	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.136	-0.000
predicted_R	0.213	-0.095
predicted_RBI	0.303	0.033
predicted_SLG	0.252	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.037	-0.040

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.38), rates preserved: AVG=0.112 HR/AB=0.035

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	2.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 26

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	5.000	0.0625	0.0625	0.0625	0.0625	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.3125
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	6.000	1.000	3.000	7.000	3.000	0.000	10.000	0.1765	0.1765	0.4706	0.1765	0.0882	0.2059	0.0000	0.2941
season	0.20	26	-	88.000	14.000	3.000	3.000	11.000	8.000	8.000	28.000	0.1591	0.2292	0.2955	0.1591	0.0341	0.1250	0.0909	0.3182

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0570
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.3070
predicted_AVG	0.1217
predicted_BB	0.0600
predicted_H	0.4020
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1250
predicted_OBP	0.1357
predicted_R	0.1620
predicted_RBI	0.3210
predicted_SLG	0.2519
predicted_SO	1.0160

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1150	0.0570	0.0773	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3850	3.3070	3.3343	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1220	0.1217	0.1218	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3080	0.0600	0.1468	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3400	0.4020	0.3803	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1250	0.1197	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1360	0.1357	0.1358	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3080	0.1620	0.2131	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.3210	0.3032	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2520	0.2519	0.2519	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0770	1.0160	1.0373	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	26
Season rows before report date	26
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	26
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.159

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260505_BAL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	691723
playerID	691723
playerName	Coby Mayo
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	BAL
teamID	3

Dylan Beavers (687637) · BATTER · RF · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 25

All-history rows before 20260506: 25

System season_avg: 0.2120

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2118

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.120	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.120	0.000	0.880	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.400	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.400	3.000	1.600	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.171	0.400	0.400	Hitting_AVG	0.212	0.000	0.188	0.400
predicted_BB	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.360	1.000	-0.360	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.040	0.000	-0.040	0.000
predicted_H	0.490	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.720	0.000	1.280	2.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.080	0.000	-0.080	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.266	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.284	0.250	0.116	0.150
predicted_R	0.440	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.440	1.000	0.560	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.320	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	0.360	0.000	1.640	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.239	0.600	0.600	Hitting_SLG	0.318	0.000	0.282	0.600
predicted_SO	0.880	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.880	0.000	-0.880	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.120	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.400	-
predicted_AVG	0.171	-
predicted_BB	0.360	-
predicted_H	0.490	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.266	-
predicted_R	0.440	-
predicted_RBI	0.320	-
predicted_SLG	0.239	-
predicted_SO	0.880	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.101	-0.019
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.468	0.068
predicted_AVG	0.171	0.000
predicted_BB	0.420	0.060
predicted_H	0.561	0.071
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.046	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.266	-0.000
predicted_R	0.502	0.062
predicted_RBI	0.367	0.047
predicted_SLG	0.239	0.000
predicted_SO	1.042	0.162

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.47), rates preserved: AVG=0.162 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	2.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 25

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	7.000	0.1176	0.2500	0.1176	0.1177	0.0000	0.1177	0.1765	0.4118
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	8.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	5.000	3.000	9.000	0.2162	0.2750	0.3514	0.2162	0.0270	0.1081	0.0811	0.2432
season	0.20	25	-	85.000	18.000	3.000	2.000	9.000	11.000	9.000	22.000	0.2118	0.2842	0.3176	0.2118	0.0235	0.1059	0.1059	0.2588

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0910
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.5050
predicted_AVG	0.1710
predicted_BB	0.4520
predicted_H	0.5990
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0500
predicted_OBP	0.2656
predicted_R	0.5350
predicted_RBI	0.3920
predicted_SLG	0.2394
predicted_SO	1.1290

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1200	0.0910	0.1011	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4000	3.5050	3.4682	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1710	0.1710	0.1710	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3600	0.4520	0.4198	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4900	0.5990	0.5608	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0500	0.0465	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2660	0.2656	0.2657	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4400	0.5350	0.5018	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3200	0.3920	0.3668	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2390	0.2394	0.2393	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8800	1.1290	1.0418	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	25
Season rows before report date	25
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	25
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.212

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260505_BAL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	687637
playerID	687637
playerName	Dylan Beavers
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	BAL
teamID	3

Jeremiah Jackson (669236) · BATTER · 2B · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 30

All-history rows before 20260506: 30

System season_avg: 0.2610

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2613

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_2B	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.100	0.000	-0.100
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.700	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.700	4.000	0.300
predicted_AVG	0.207	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.261	0.250	-0.011
predicted_BB	0.067	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.067	0.000	-0.067
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.033	0.000	-0.033
predicted_H	0.620	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.967	1.000	0.033
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.200	0.000	-0.200
predicted_OBP	0.210	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.278	0.250	-0.028
predicted_R	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	0.000	-0.333
predicted_RBI	0.670	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.800	0.000	-0.800
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.033	0.000	-0.033
predicted_SLG	0.371	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.450	0.250	-0.200
predicted_SO	0.833	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.833	1.000	0.167

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.100	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.700	-
predicted_AVG	0.207	-
predicted_BB	0.067	-
predicted_H	0.620	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.210	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.670	-
predicted_SLG	0.371	-
predicted_SO	0.833	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.129	0.029
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.811	0.111
predicted_AVG	0.207	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.033	-0.035
predicted_H	0.737	0.117
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.153	0.023
predicted_OBP	0.210	0.000
predicted_R	0.265	-0.068
predicted_RBI	0.788	0.118
predicted_SLG	0.371	0.000
predicted_SO	0.817	-0.016

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.81), rates preserved: AVG=0.193 HR/AB=0.040

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	0.2000	0.2000	0.4000	0.2000	0.0500	0.2500	0.0000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	2.000	0.000	8.000	0.1842	0.1842	0.2895	0.1842	0.0263	0.1842	0.0000	0.2105
season	0.20	30	-	111.000	29.000	3.000	6.000	24.000	10.000	2.000	25.000	0.2613	0.2783	0.4505	0.2613	0.0541	0.2162	0.0180	0.2252

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1440
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.8700
predicted_AVG	0.2067
predicted_BB	0.0140
predicted_H	0.8000
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.1650
predicted_OBP	0.2101
predicted_R	0.2280
predicted_RBI	0.8520
predicted_SLG	0.3714
predicted_SO	0.8080

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1000	0.1440	0.1286	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7000	3.8700	3.8105	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2070	0.2067	0.2068	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0670	0.0140	0.0325	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6200	0.8000	0.7370	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1650	0.1527	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2100	0.2101	0.2101	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.2280	0.2647	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6700	0.8520	0.7883	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3710	0.3714	0.3713	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8330	0.8080	0.8167	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.261

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260504_BAL@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	669236
playerID	669236
playerName	Jeremiah Jackson
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	BAL
teamID	3

Pete Alonso (624413) · BATTER · 1B · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 36

All-history rows before 20260506: 36

System season_avg: 0.2260

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2256

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.278	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.278	2.000	-0.278	-2.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.694	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.694	3.000	0.306	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.323	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.226	0.667	0.024	-0.417
predicted_BB	0.583	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.583	2.000	-0.583	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.150	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.833	2.000	0.167	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.330	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.167	0.000	0.833	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.434	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.335	0.800	0.065	-0.400
predicted_R	0.694	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.694	4.000	0.306	-3.000
predicted_RBI	0.720	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.472	2.000	0.528	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.737	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SLG	0.436	1.333	0.564	-0.333
predicted_SO	1.056	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.056	1.000	-0.056	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.278	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.694	-
predicted_AVG	0.323	-
predicted_BB	0.583	-
predicted_H	1.150	-
predicted_HR	0.330	-
predicted_OBP	0.434	-
predicted_R	0.694	-
predicted_RBI	0.720	-
predicted_SLG	0.737	-
predicted_SO	1.056	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.402	0.124
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.541	-0.153
predicted_AVG	0.323	0.000
predicted_BB	0.652	0.069
predicted_H	1.129	-0.021
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.324	-0.006
predicted_OBP	0.434	0.000
predicted_R	1.081	0.387
predicted_RBI	0.710	-0.010
predicted_SLG	0.737	0.000
predicted_SO	0.981	-0.075

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.69), rates preserved: AVG=0.305 HR/AB=0.088

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	7.000	3.000	2.000	4.000	8.000	4.000	5.000	0.4118	0.5238	0.9412	0.4118	0.1177	0.2353	0.2353	0.2941
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	9.000	4.000	3.000	7.000	12.000	6.000	8.000	0.2647	0.3750	0.6471	0.2647	0.0882	0.2059	0.1765	0.2353
season	0.20	36	-	133.000	30.000	10.000	6.000	17.000	25.000	21.000	38.000	0.2256	0.3355	0.4361	0.2256	0.0451	0.1278	0.1579	0.2857

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.4690
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.4590
predicted_AVG	0.3231
predicted_BB	0.6890
predicted_H	1.1170
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.3210
predicted_OBP	0.4341
predicted_R	1.2900
predicted_RBI	0.7040
predicted_SLG	0.7372
predicted_SO	0.9400

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2780	0.4690	0.4022	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6940	3.4590	3.5413	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3230	0.3231	0.3231	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5830	0.6890	0.6519	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1500	1.1170	1.1285	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3300	0.3210	0.3241	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4340	0.4341	0.4341	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6940	1.2900	1.0814	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7200	0.7040	0.7096	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.7370	0.7372	0.7371	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0560	0.9400	0.9806	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.226

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	2
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	4
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260505_BAL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	624413
playerID	624413
playerName	Pete Alonso
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	BAL
teamID	3

Leody Taveras (665750) · BATTER · CF · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 22

All-history rows before 20260506: 22

System season_avg: 0.2840

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2838

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_3B	0.045	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.045	0.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_AB	3.364	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.364	5.000	1.636	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.231	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.284	0.200	-0.284	-0.200
predicted_BB	0.636	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.636	0.000	-0.636	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.045	0.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_H	0.680	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.955	1.000	-0.955	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.340	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.398	0.200	-0.398	-0.200
predicted_R	0.455	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.455	0.000	-0.455	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.620	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.818	1.000	-0.818	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.045	0.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.372	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.446	0.200	-0.446	-0.200
predicted_SO	0.682	3.000	3.000	Hitting_SO	0.682	1.000	2.318	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	-
predicted_3B	0.045	-
predicted_AB	3.364	-
predicted_AVG	0.231	-
predicted_BB	0.636	-
predicted_H	0.680	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.340	-
predicted_R	0.455	-
predicted_RBI	0.620	-
predicted_SLG	0.372	-
predicted_SO	0.682	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.170	-0.012
predicted_3B	0.103	0.058
predicted_AB	3.428	0.064
predicted_AVG	0.231	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.596	-0.040
predicted_H	0.757	0.077
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.019	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.340	-0.000
predicted_R	0.324	-0.131
predicted_RBI	0.696	0.076
predicted_SLG	0.372	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.722	0.040

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.43), rates preserved: AVG=0.221 HR/AB=0.006

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	2.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	0.2353	0.3500	0.4118	0.2353	0.0000	0.2353	0.1765	0.2353
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	6.000	2.000	5.000	7.000	0.1944	0.2927	0.2778	0.1944	0.0000	0.1667	0.1389	0.1944
season	0.20	22	-	74.000	21.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	18.000	10.000	14.000	15.000	0.2838	0.3977	0.4459	0.2838	0.0270	0.2432	0.1892	0.2027

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1630
predicted_3B	0.1350
predicted_AB	3.4630
predicted_AVG	0.2307
predicted_BB	0.5740
predicted_H	0.7990
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0190
predicted_OBP	0.3395
predicted_R	0.2530
predicted_RBI	0.7370
predicted_SLG	0.3717
predicted_SO	0.7430

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1820	0.1630	0.1696	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0450	0.1350	0.1035	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3640	3.4630	3.4284	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2310	0.2307	0.2308	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6360	0.5740	0.5957	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6800	0.7990	0.7574	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0190	0.0193	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3400	0.3395	0.3397	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4550	0.2530	0.3237	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6200	0.7370	0.6961	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3720	0.3717	0.3718	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6820	0.7430	0.7217	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.284

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260505_BAL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	665750
playerID	665750
playerName	Leody Taveras
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	BAL
teamID	3

Gunnar Henderson (683002) · BATTER · SS · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 35

All-history rows before 20260506: 35

System season_avg: 0.2080

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2081

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.171	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.171	0.000	-0.171	0.000
predicted_3B	0.029	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_AB	4.260	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	4.257	5.000	0.743	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.213	0.200	0.200	Hitting_AVG	0.208	0.200	-0.008	0.000
predicted_BB	0.343	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.343	0.000	-0.343	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_H	0.910	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.886	1.000	0.114	0.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.257	0.000	-0.257	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.231	0.200	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.270	0.200	-0.070	0.000
predicted_R	0.657	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.657	0.000	-0.657	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.330	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.543	0.000	-0.543	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.346	0.200	0.200	Hitting_SLG	0.443	0.200	-0.243	0.000
predicted_SO	1.429	3.000	3.000	Hitting_SO	1.429	1.000	1.571	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.171	-
predicted_3B	0.029	-
predicted_AB	4.260	-
predicted_AVG	0.213	-
predicted_BB	0.343	-
predicted_H	0.910	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.231	-
predicted_R	0.657	-
predicted_RBI	0.330	-
predicted_SLG	0.346	-
predicted_SO	1.429	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.186	0.015
predicted_3B	0.014	-0.015
predicted_AB	4.309	0.049
predicted_AVG	0.213	0.000
predicted_BB	0.188	-0.155
predicted_H	0.918	0.008
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.122	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.231	0.000
predicted_R	0.558	-0.099
predicted_RBI	0.337	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.346	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.472	0.043

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.31), rates preserved: AVG=0.213 HR/AB=0.028

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 4.260

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	22.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	8.000	0.1818	0.1818	0.2273	0.1818	0.0000	0.0454	0.0000	0.3636
last_10	0.35	10	-	43.000	11.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	8.000	1.000	14.000	0.2558	0.2727	0.4419	0.2558	0.0465	0.0930	0.0233	0.3256
season	0.20	35	-	149.000	31.000	6.000	1.000	9.000	19.000	23.000	12.000	50.000	0.2081	0.2699	0.4430	0.2081	0.0604	0.1275	0.0805	0.3356

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1940
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	4.3360
predicted_AVG	0.2130
predicted_BB	0.1050
predicted_H	0.9230
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.1230
predicted_OBP	0.2312
predicted_R	0.5050
predicted_RBI	0.3400
predicted_SLG	0.3456
predicted_SO	1.4950

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1710	0.1940	0.1860	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0290	0.0060	0.0140	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.2600	4.3360	4.3094	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2130	0.2130	0.2130	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3430	0.1050	0.1883	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9100	0.9230	0.9185	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1230	0.1220	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2310	0.2312	0.2311	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6570	0.5050	0.5582	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3300	0.3400	0.3365	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3460	0.3456	0.3457	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4290	1.4950	1.4719	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.208

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260505_BAL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	683002
playerID	683002
playerName	Gunnar Henderson
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	BAL
teamID	3

Adley Rutschman (668939) · BATTER · C · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 19

All-history rows before 20260506: 19

System season_avg: 0.2800

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2800

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.263	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.263	0.000	-0.263	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.947	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.947	5.000	0.053	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.220	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.280	0.200	0.220	0.300
predicted_BB	0.263	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.263	0.000	0.737	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.840	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	1.105	1.000	0.895	1.000
predicted_HR	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.211	0.000	-0.211	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.229	0.600	0.600	Hitting_OBP	0.325	0.200	0.275	0.400
predicted_R	0.421	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.421	0.000	0.579	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.940	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.842	0.000	-0.842	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.430	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.507	0.200	-0.007	0.300
predicted_SO	0.579	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.579	1.000	0.421	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.263	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.947	-
predicted_AVG	0.220	-
predicted_BB	0.263	-
predicted_H	0.840	-
predicted_HR	0.250	-
predicted_OBP	0.229	-
predicted_R	0.421	-
predicted_RBI	0.940	-
predicted_SLG	0.430	-
predicted_SO	0.579	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.128	-0.135
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.078	0.131
predicted_AVG	0.220	0.000
predicted_BB	0.128	-0.135
predicted_H	0.888	0.048
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.264	0.014
predicted_OBP	0.229	0.000
predicted_R	0.455	0.034
predicted_RBI	0.990	0.050
predicted_SLG	0.430	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.567	-0.012

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.08), rates preserved: AVG=0.218 HR/AB=0.065

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 3.947

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	0.1429	0.1429	0.2857	0.1429	0.0476	0.1905	0.0000	0.1429
last_10	0.35	10	-	42.000	12.000	0.000	4.000	14.000	6.000	0.000	5.000	0.2857	0.2857	0.5714	0.2857	0.0952	0.3333	0.0000	0.1191
season	0.20	19	-	75.000	21.000	5.000	4.000	16.000	8.000	5.000	11.000	0.2800	0.3250	0.5067	0.2800	0.0533	0.2133	0.0667	0.1467

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0550
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.1490
predicted_AVG	0.2203
predicted_BB	0.0550
predicted_H	0.9140
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.2710
predicted_OBP	0.2293
predicted_R	0.4740
predicted_RBI	1.0170
predicted_SLG	0.4299
predicted_SO	0.5610

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2630	0.0550	0.1278	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9470	4.1490	4.0783	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2200	0.2203	0.2202	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2630	0.0550	0.1278	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8400	0.9140	0.8881	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2500	0.2710	0.2637	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2290	0.2293	0.2292	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4210	0.4740	0.4554	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.9400	1.0170	0.9900	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4300	0.4299	0.4299	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5790	0.5610	0.5673	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.28

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260504_BAL@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	668939
playerID	668939
playerName	Adley Rutschman
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	BAL
teamID	3

Taylor Ward (621493) · BATTER · LF · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 35

All-history rows before 20260506: 35

System season_avg: 0.2890

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2891

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.371	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.371	0.000	0.629	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.657	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.657	3.000	0.343	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.231	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.289	0.333	-0.039	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.886	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.886	2.000	0.114	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_H	0.810	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.057	1.000	-0.057	0.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.462	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.429	0.600	-0.029	-0.200
predicted_R	0.629	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.629	3.000	-0.629	-3.000
predicted_RBI	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.343	0.000	-0.343	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.256	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.414	0.333	0.086	0.167
predicted_SO	0.714	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.714	1.000	0.286	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.371	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.657	-
predicted_AVG	0.231	-
predicted_BB	0.886	-
predicted_H	0.810	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.462	-
predicted_R	0.629	-
predicted_RBI	0.220	-
predicted_SLG	0.256	-
predicted_SO	0.714	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.170	-0.201
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.234	-0.423
predicted_AVG	0.231	-0.000
predicted_BB	1.151	0.265
predicted_H	0.735	-0.075
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.007	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.462	-0.000
predicted_R	0.837	0.208
predicted_RBI	0.200	-0.020
predicted_SLG	0.256	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.719	0.005

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.66), rates preserved: AVG=0.201 HR/AB=0.002

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	7.000	4.000	0.1429	0.4286	0.1429	0.1429	0.0000	0.0714	0.5000	0.2857
last_10	0.35	10	-	29.000	9.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	10.000	13.000	6.000	0.3103	0.5238	0.3103	0.3103	0.0000	0.0345	0.4483	0.2069
season	0.20	35	-	128.000	37.000	13.000	1.000	12.000	22.000	31.000	25.000	0.2891	0.4286	0.4141	0.2891	0.0078	0.0938	0.2422	0.1953

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0610
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.0060
predicted_AVG	0.2307
predicted_BB	1.2940
predicted_H	0.6940
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0050
predicted_OBP	0.4619
predicted_R	0.9490
predicted_RBI	0.1890
predicted_SLG	0.2557
predicted_SO	0.7220

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3710	0.0610	0.1695	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6570	3.0060	3.2338	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2310	0.2307	0.2308	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.8860	1.2940	1.1512	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8100	0.6940	0.7346	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0050	0.0067	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4620	0.4619	0.4619	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6290	0.9490	0.8370	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2200	0.1890	0.1998	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2560	0.2557	0.2558	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7140	0.7220	0.7192	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.289

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	3
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260505_BAL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	621493
playerID	621493
playerName	Taylor Ward
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	BAL
teamID	3

Brandon Young (687064) · PITCHER · Starter · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 3

All-history rows before 20260506: 3

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	3.333	7.000	-1.333	-5.000
predicted_IP	4.000	4.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.733	4.000	-0.733	0.000
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_SO	3.000	2.000	0.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 3

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	3	14.667	10.000	19.000	5.000	9.000	3.000	6.1364	1.6364	0.6818	1.2954	0.3409	0.6136	0.2046
last_10	0.35	3	14.667	10.000	19.000	5.000	9.000	3.000	6.1364	1.6364	0.6818	1.2954	0.3409	0.6136	0.2046
season	0.20	3	14.667	10.000	19.000	5.000	9.000	3.000	6.1364	1.6364	0.6818	1.2954	0.3409	0.6136	0.2046

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.6670
predicted_ER	3.3330
predicted_ERA	6.1364
predicted_H	6.3330
predicted_HR	1.0000
predicted_IP	4.8890
predicted_SO	3.0000
predicted_WHIP	1.6364

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	1.6670	2.1335	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	3.3330	2.8665	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	6.1364	6.1364	form_only
predicted_H	5.0000	6.3330	5.8665	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.0000	4.8890	4.5778	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	3.0000	3.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.6364	1.6364	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	3
Season rows before report date	3
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	3
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.0
H	5
R	2
ER	2
BB	3
SO	3
HR	1
BF	21
Pitches	87

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	25
Pitching_ER	7
Pitching_ERA	6.14
Pitching_Flyouts	5
Pitching_Groundouts	4
Pitching_H	10
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	4.0
Pitching_Pitches	82
Pitching_R	10
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	51
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260430_HOU@BAL_2
game_type	full
mlbID	687064
playerID	687064
playerName	Brandon Young
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	BAL
teamID	3

Andrew Kittredge (552640) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 5

All-history rows before 20260506: 5

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.400	0.000	-0.400	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.660	0.200	0.340	0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 5

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	7.000	10.000	2.000	5.000	1.000	15.7500	3.0000	1.7500	2.5000	0.5000	1.2500	0.2500
last_10	0.35	5	4.000	7.000	10.000	2.000	5.000	1.000	15.7500	3.0000	1.7500	2.5000	0.5000	1.2500	0.2500
season	0.20	5	4.000	7.000	10.000	2.000	5.000	1.000	15.7500	3.0000	1.7500	2.5000	0.5000	1.2500	0.2500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4000
predicted_ER	1.4000
predicted_ERA	15.7500
predicted_H	2.0000
predicted_HR	0.2000
predicted_IP	0.8000
predicted_SO	1.0000
predicted_WHIP	3.0000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4000	0.2600	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	1.4000	1.2600	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	15.7500	15.7500	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	2.0000	1.6500	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2000	0.1300	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.8000	0.8700	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	3.0000	3.0000	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	5
Season rows before report date	5
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	5
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	15.75
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	20
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_BAL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	552640
playerID	552640
playerName	Andrew Kittredge
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BAL
teamID	3

Anthony Nunez (689296) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 16

All-history rows before 20260506: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.562	2.000	-0.562	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.969	1.100	0.031	-0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.188	1.000	-1.188	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.333	4.000	8.000	1.000	6.000	2.000	6.7500	1.6875	0.7500	1.5000	0.1875	1.1250	0.3750
last_10	0.35	10	10.333	5.000	11.000	2.000	12.000	3.000	4.3548	1.2581	0.4839	1.0645	0.1935	1.1613	0.2903
season	0.20	15	16.667	6.000	14.000	3.000	19.000	4.000	3.2400	1.0200	0.3600	0.8400	0.1800	1.1400	0.2400

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2000
predicted_ER	0.6160
predicted_ERA	5.2097
predicted_H	1.2930
predicted_HR	0.3390
predicted_IP	1.0640
predicted_SO	1.2140
predicted_WHIP	1.4037

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.2000	0.4800	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.6160	0.4004	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.2097	5.2097	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.2930	0.8405	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.3390	0.2204	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0640	1.0416	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.2140	0.7891	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4037	1.4037	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	4.86
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	20
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_BAL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	689296
playerID	689296
playerName	Anthony Nunez
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BAL
teamID	3

Keegan Akin (669211) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 5

All-history rows before 20260506: 5

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.400	0.000	-0.400	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.840	1.000	0.160	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.800	1.000	0.200	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 5

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.667	7.000	9.000	4.000	2.000	13.5000	1.9286	1.5000	1.9286	0.8571	0.4286
last_10	0.35	5	4.667	7.000	9.000	4.000	2.000	13.5000	1.9286	1.5000	1.9286	0.8571	0.4286
season	0.20	5	4.667	7.000	9.000	4.000	2.000	13.5000	1.9286	1.5000	1.9286	0.8571	0.4286

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.0000
predicted_ER	1.4000
predicted_ERA	13.5000
predicted_H	1.8000
predicted_HR	0.4000
predicted_IP	0.9330
predicted_SO	0.8000
predicted_WHIP	1.9286

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	1.4000	1.2600	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	13.5000	13.5000	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.8000	1.5200	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.4000	0.2600	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.9330	0.9565	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8000	0.8700	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.9286	1.9286	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	5
Season rows before report date	5
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	5
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	13.50
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	8
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	6
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_BAL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	669211
playerID	669211
playerName	Keegan Akin
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BAL
teamID	3

Rico Garcia (670329) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 17

All-history rows before 20260506: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.859	1.100	0.141	-0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.059	2.000	-0.059	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	0.000	0.0000	0.2500	0.0000	0.0000	0.2500	1.2500	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.333	1.000	1.000	2.000	10.000	1.000	0.9643	0.3214	0.1071	0.1071	0.2143	1.0714	0.1071
season	0.20	17	16.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	18.000	1.000	0.5625	0.3750	0.0625	0.0625	0.3125	1.1250	0.0625

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2190
predicted_ER	0.0440
predicted_ERA	0.4500
predicted_H	0.0440
predicted_HR	0.0440
predicted_IP	0.8750
predicted_SO	1.0170
predicted_WHIP	0.3000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2190	0.1424	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.0440	0.0286	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.4500	0.4500	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.0440	0.0286	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0440	0.0286	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.8750	0.9187	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0170	1.0111	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.3000	0.3000	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	10

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.56
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	19
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_BAL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	670329
playerID	670329
playerName	Rico Garcia
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BAL
teamID	3

Yennier Cano (666974) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 17

All-history rows before 20260506: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.541	0.200	0.459	0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.647	0.000	0.353	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.667	0.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.0000	0.2727	0.0000	0.2727	0.0000	0.5454	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	7.667	1.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	1.000	1.1739	0.5217	0.1304	0.3913	0.1304	0.7826	0.1304
season	0.20	17	12.000	2.000	6.000	1.000	11.000	1.000	1.5000	0.5833	0.1667	0.5000	0.0833	0.9167	0.0833

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.0460
predicted_ER	0.0580
predicted_ERA	0.7109
predicted_H	0.2660
predicted_HR	0.0460
predicted_IP	0.7400
predicted_SO	0.5200
predicted_WHIP	0.4220

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0460	0.0299	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.0580	0.0377	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.7109	0.7109	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.2660	0.1729	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0460	0.0299	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.7400	0.8310	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.5200	0.6880	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.4220	0.4220	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.50
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	9
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_BAL@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	666974
playerID	666974
playerName	Yennier Cano
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BAL
teamID	3

Lou Trivino (642152) · PITCHER · Reliever · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 1

All-history rows before 20260506: 1

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	6.000	6.000	-4.000	-4.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.200	0.200	0.800	0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP
last_5	0.45	1	0.667	6.000	4.000	3.000	81.0000	10.5000	9.0000	6.0000	4.5000
last_10	0.35	1	0.667	6.000	4.000	3.000	81.0000	10.5000	9.0000	6.0000	4.5000
season	0.20	1	0.667	6.000	4.000	3.000	81.0000	10.5000	9.0000	6.0000	4.5000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	3.0000
predicted_ER	6.0000
predicted_ERA	81.0000
predicted_H	4.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	0.6670
predicted_SO	0.0000
predicted_WHIP	10.5000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	3.0000	1.9500	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	6.0000	4.6000	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	81.0000	81.0000	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	4.0000	3.6500	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.6670	0.7835	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.0000	0.3500	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	10.5000	10.5000	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	3
R	2
ER	2
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	22

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	9
Pitching_ER	6
Pitching_ERA	81.00
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	31
Pitching_R	6
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	15
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_BAL@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	642152
playerID	642152
playerName	Lou Trivino
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BAL
teamID	3

Home Team: MIA

Jakob Marsee (805300) · BATTER · CF · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 34

All-history rows before 20260506: 34

System season_avg: 0.1730

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1729

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.088	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.088	0.000	-0.088	0.000
predicted_3B	0.059	1.000	1.000	Hitting_3B	0.059	0.000	0.941	1.000
predicted_AB	3.912	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.912	5.000	1.088	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.157	0.600	0.600	Hitting_AVG	0.173	0.000	0.427	0.600
predicted_BB	0.618	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.618	0.000	-0.618	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_H	0.570	3.000	3.000	Hitting_H	0.676	0.000	2.324	3.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.266	0.600	0.600	Hitting_OBP	0.293	0.000	0.307	0.600
predicted_R	0.559	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.559	0.000	0.441	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.100	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.206	0.000	0.794	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.294	0.000	-0.294	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.189	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SLG	0.248	0.000	0.752	1.000
predicted_SO	1.235	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.235	3.000	-0.235	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.088	-
predicted_3B	0.059	-
predicted_AB	3.912	-
predicted_AVG	0.157	-
predicted_BB	0.618	-
predicted_H	0.570	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.266	-
predicted_R	0.559	-
predicted_RBI	0.100	-
predicted_SLG	0.189	-
predicted_SO	1.235	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.088	0.000
predicted_3B	0.028	-0.031
predicted_AB	4.061	0.149
predicted_AVG	0.157	0.000
predicted_BB	0.609	-0.009
predicted_H	0.623	0.053
predicted_HBP	0.012	-
predicted_HR	0.007	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.266	-0.000
predicted_R	0.398	-0.161
predicted_RBI	0.108	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.189	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.641	0.406

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.06), rates preserved: AVG=0.153 HR/AB=0.002

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	1.000	1.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.912

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	11.000	0.1429	0.2500	0.1429	0.1429	0.0000	0.0000	0.1429	0.5238
last_10	0.35	10	-	42.000	7.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	6.000	18.000	0.1667	0.2708	0.2143	0.1667	0.0000	0.0476	0.1429	0.4286
season	0.20	34	-	133.000	23.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	7.000	19.000	21.000	42.000	0.1729	0.2930	0.2481	0.1729	0.0075	0.0526	0.1579	0.3158

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0880
predicted_3B	0.0120
predicted_AB	4.1420
predicted_AVG	0.1572
predicted_BB	0.6040
predicted_H	0.6510
predicted_HBP	0.0120
predicted_HR	0.0060
predicted_OBP	0.2659
predicted_R	0.3110
predicted_RBI	0.1130
predicted_SLG	0.1889
predicted_SO	1.8590

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0880	0.0880	0.0880	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0590	0.0120	0.0284	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9120	4.1420	4.0615	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1570	0.1572	0.1571	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6180	0.6040	0.6089	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5700	0.6510	0.6227	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0120	0.0120	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0060	0.0074	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2660	0.2659	0.2659	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5590	0.3110	0.3978	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1000	0.1130	0.1084	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1890	0.1889	0.1889	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2350	1.8590	1.6406	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	3
2B	0
3B	1
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.173

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260505_BAL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	805300
playerID	805300
playerName	Jakob Marsee
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	MIA
teamID	15

Kyle Stowers (669065) · BATTER · LF · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 14

All-history rows before 20260506: 14

System season_avg: 0.2220

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2222

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.214	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.214	0.000	-0.214	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.857	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.857	4.000	1.143	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.193	0.400	0.400	Hitting_AVG	0.222	0.000	0.178	0.400
predicted_BB	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_H	0.710	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.857	0.000	1.143	2.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.281	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.323	0.200	0.077	0.200
predicted_R	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.500	1.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.204	0.400	0.400	Hitting_SLG	0.278	0.000	0.122	0.400
predicted_SO	1.071	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.071	2.000	-0.071	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.214	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.857	-
predicted_AVG	0.193	-
predicted_BB	0.500	-
predicted_H	0.710	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.281	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.050	-
predicted_SLG	0.204	-
predicted_SO	1.071	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.103	-0.111
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.850	-0.007
predicted_AVG	0.193	0.000
predicted_BB	0.471	-0.029
predicted_H	0.731	0.021
predicted_HBP	0.014	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.281	-0.000
predicted_R	0.485	-0.015
predicted_RBI	0.049	-0.001
predicted_SLG	0.204	0.000
predicted_SO	1.198	0.127

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.86), rates preserved: AVG=0.189 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 3.857

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	7.000	0.2105	0.2857	0.2105	0.2105	0.0000	0.1053	0.3684
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	6.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	12.000	0.1538	0.2500	0.1538	0.1538	0.0256	0.1282	0.3077
season	0.20	14	-	54.000	12.000	3.000	1.000	7.000	7.000	15.000	0.2222	0.3226	0.2778	0.2222	0.0185	0.1296	0.2778

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0430
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.8460
predicted_AVG	0.1930
predicted_BB	0.4550
predicted_H	0.7420
predicted_HBP	0.0140
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.2806
predicted_R	0.4770
predicted_RBI	0.0490
predicted_SLG	0.2041
predicted_SO	1.2660

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2140	0.0430	0.1028	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8570	3.8460	3.8498	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1930	0.1930	0.1930	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5000	0.4550	0.4708	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7100	0.7420	0.7308	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0140	0.0140	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2810	0.2806	0.2807	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.4770	0.4850	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0500	0.0490	0.0494	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2040	0.2041	0.2041	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0710	1.2660	1.1978	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.222

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260505_BAL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	669065
playerID	669065
playerName	Kyle Stowers
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	MIA
teamID	15

Connor Norby (681393) · BATTER · 3B · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 31

All-history rows before 20260506: 31

System season_avg: 0.2330

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2330

Diff (system - data): -0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.194	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.194	0.000	-0.194	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.323	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.323	3.000	0.677	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.225	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.233	0.333	-0.233	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.387	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.387	0.000	0.613	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.065	1.000	-0.065	-1.000
predicted_H	0.720	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.774	1.000	-0.774	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.097	0.000	-0.097	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.339	0.200	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.339	0.500	-0.139	-0.300
predicted_R	0.226	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.226	0.000	-0.226	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.355	0.000	-0.355	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.065	0.000	-0.065	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.321	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.379	0.333	-0.379	-0.333
predicted_SO	1.226	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.226	2.000	-1.226	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.194	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.323	-
predicted_AVG	0.225	-
predicted_BB	0.387	-
predicted_H	0.720	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.339	-
predicted_R	0.226	-
predicted_RBI	0.280	-
predicted_SLG	0.321	-
predicted_SO	1.226	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.174	-0.020
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.363	0.040
predicted_AVG	0.225	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.416	0.029
predicted_H	0.746	0.026
predicted_HBP	0.157	-
predicted_HR	0.053	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.339	0.000
predicted_R	0.132	-0.094
predicted_RBI	0.294	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.321	0.000
predicted_SO	1.595	0.369

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.36), rates preserved: AVG=0.222 HR/AB=0.016

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	11.000	0.2353	0.3500	0.2941	0.2353	0.0000	0.0588	0.1177	0.6471
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	5.000	16.000	0.2059	0.3250	0.3235	0.2059	0.0294	0.1177	0.1471	0.4706
season	0.20	31	-	103.000	24.000	6.000	3.000	11.000	7.000	12.000	38.000	0.2330	0.3388	0.3786	0.2330	0.0291	0.1068	0.1165	0.3689

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1640
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.3850
predicted_AVG	0.2245
predicted_BB	0.4320
predicted_H	0.7600
predicted_HBP	0.1570
predicted_HR	0.0550
predicted_OBP	0.3390
predicted_R	0.0810
predicted_RBI	0.3010
predicted_SLG	0.3213
predicted_SO	1.7930

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1940	0.1640	0.1745	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3230	3.3850	3.3633	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2250	0.2245	0.2247	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3870	0.4320	0.4163	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7200	0.7600	0.7460	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1570	0.1570	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0550	0.0533	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3390	0.3390	0.3390	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2260	0.0810	0.1318	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2800	0.3010	0.2936	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3210	0.3213	0.3212	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2260	1.7930	1.5946	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.233

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	1
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260505_BAL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	681393
playerID	681393
playerName	Connor Norby
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	MIA
teamID	15

Liam Hicks (689414) · BATTER · 1B · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 27

All-history rows before 20260506: 27

System season_avg: 0.3370

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3367

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.630	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.630	5.000	0.370	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.339	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.337	0.800	-0.087	-0.550
predicted_BB	0.296	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.296	0.000	0.704	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.190	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.222	4.000	-0.222	-3.000
predicted_HR	0.400	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.296	1.000	0.704	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.419	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.384	0.800	0.016	-0.400
predicted_R	0.667	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.667	1.000	0.333	0.000
predicted_RBI	1.120	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	1.185	3.000	-0.185	-2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.037	0.000	-0.037	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.686	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SLG	0.612	1.400	0.388	-0.400
predicted_SO	0.333	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.333	1.000	0.667	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.630	-
predicted_AVG	0.339	-
predicted_BB	0.296	-
predicted_H	1.190	-
predicted_HR	0.400	-
predicted_OBP	0.419	-
predicted_R	0.667	-
predicted_RBI	1.120	-
predicted_SLG	0.686	-
predicted_SO	0.333	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.052	-0.059
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.452	-0.178
predicted_AVG	0.339	0.000
predicted_BB	0.497	0.201
predicted_H	1.156	-0.034
predicted_HBP	0.014	-
predicted_HR	0.388	-0.012
predicted_OBP	0.419	0.000
predicted_R	0.571	-0.096
predicted_RBI	1.088	-0.032
predicted_SLG	0.686	0.000
predicted_SO	0.475	0.142

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.63), rates preserved: AVG=0.319 HR/AB=0.107

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	6.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	0.3750	0.4762	0.7500	0.3750	0.1250	0.3125	0.2500	0.1875
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	10.000	0.000	4.000	11.000	6.000	5.000	6.000	0.2941	0.3659	0.6471	0.2941	0.1177	0.3235	0.1471	0.1765
season	0.20	27	-	98.000	33.000	3.000	8.000	32.000	18.000	8.000	9.000	0.3367	0.3839	0.6122	0.3367	0.0816	0.3265	0.0816	0.0918

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0210
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.3560
predicted_AVG	0.3390
predicted_BB	0.6050
predicted_H	1.1380
predicted_HBP	0.0140
predicted_HR	0.3820
predicted_OBP	0.4191
predicted_R	0.5190
predicted_RBI	1.0710
predicted_SLG	0.6864
predicted_SO	0.5520

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1110	0.0210	0.0525	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6300	3.3560	3.4519	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3390	0.3390	0.3390	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2960	0.6050	0.4968	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1900	1.1380	1.1562	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0140	0.0140	form_only
predicted_HR	0.4000	0.3820	0.3883	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4190	0.4191	0.4191	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6670	0.5190	0.5708	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	1.1200	1.0710	1.0882	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6860	0.6864	0.6863	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3330	0.5520	0.4754	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.337

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.8
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	4
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	7
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B-C
gameID	20260505_BAL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	689414
playerID	689414
playerName	Liam Hicks
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	MIA
teamID	15

Xavier Edwards (669364) · BATTER · 2B · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 36

All-history rows before 20260506: 36

System season_avg: 0.3330

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3333

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.194	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.194	0.000	-0.194	0.000
predicted_3B	0.056	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_AB	3.710	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.667	3.000	0.333	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.312	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.333	0.333	-0.333	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.583	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.583	2.000	0.417	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_H	1.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.222	1.000	-1.222	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.402	0.200	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.425	0.600	-0.225	-0.400
predicted_R	0.667	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.667	1.000	0.333	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.306	0.000	-0.306	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.473	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.462	0.333	-0.462	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.417	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.417	0.000	1.583	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.194	-
predicted_3B	0.056	-
predicted_AB	3.710	-
predicted_AVG	0.312	-
predicted_BB	0.583	-
predicted_H	1.160	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.402	-
predicted_R	0.667	-
predicted_RBI	0.350	-
predicted_SLG	0.473	-
predicted_SO	0.417	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.173	-0.021
predicted_3B	0.027	-0.029
predicted_AB	3.660	-0.050
predicted_AVG	0.312	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.561	-0.021
predicted_H	1.142	-0.018
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.136	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.402	-0.000
predicted_R	0.553	-0.114
predicted_RBI	0.347	-0.003
predicted_SLG	0.473	0.000
predicted_SO	0.248	-0.169

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.308 HR/AB=0.037

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	0.000	0.3158	0.3810	0.5263	0.3158	0.0526	0.1053	0.1053	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	10.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	7.000	2.000	0.2941	0.4146	0.4118	0.2941	0.0294	0.0882	0.2059	0.0588
season	0.20	36	-	132.000	44.000	7.000	2.000	2.000	11.000	24.000	21.000	15.000	0.3333	0.4248	0.4621	0.3333	0.0152	0.0833	0.1591	0.1136

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1620
predicted_3B	0.0110
predicted_AB	3.6330
predicted_AVG	0.3117
predicted_BB	0.5500
predicted_H	1.1330
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1340
predicted_OBP	0.4015
predicted_R	0.4910
predicted_RBI	0.3450
predicted_SLG	0.4734
predicted_SO	0.1570

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1940	0.1620	0.1732	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0560	0.0110	0.0267	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7100	3.6330	3.6600	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3120	0.3117	0.3118	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5830	0.5500	0.5615	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1600	1.1330	1.1424	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1340	0.1361	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4020	0.4015	0.4017	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6670	0.4910	0.5526	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3500	0.3450	0.3467	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4730	0.4734	0.4733	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4170	0.1570	0.2480	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.333

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260505_BAL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	669364
playerID	669364
playerName	Xavier Edwards
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	MIA
teamID	15

Owen Caissie (683357) · BATTER · RF · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 27

All-history rows before 20260506: 27

System season_avg: 0.1950

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1954

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.222	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.222	2.000	1.778	3.000
predicted_AVG	0.114	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.195	0.000	-0.195	0.000
predicted_BB	0.185	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.185	1.000	-0.185	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.630	0.000	-0.630	0.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.037	0.000	-0.037	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.205	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.247	0.500	-0.247	-0.500
predicted_R	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.481	0.000	-0.481	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.074	1.000	-0.074	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.147	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.299	0.000	-0.299	0.000
predicted_SO	1.481	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.481	1.000	-1.481	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.222	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.222	-
predicted_AVG	0.114	-
predicted_BB	0.185	-
predicted_H	0.310	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.205	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.250	-
predicted_SLG	0.147	-
predicted_SO	1.481	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.124	-0.098
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.885	-0.337
predicted_AVG	0.114	0.000
predicted_BB	0.195	0.010
predicted_H	0.309	-0.001
predicted_HBP	0.148	-
predicted_HR	0.007	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.205	0.000
predicted_R	0.285	-0.048
predicted_RBI	0.250	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.147	0.000
predicted_SO	1.317	-0.164

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.22), rates preserved: AVG=0.096 HR/AB=0.002

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	2.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	12.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.0833	0.2000	0.0833	0.0833	0.0000	0.0833	0.0833	0.4167
last_10	0.35	10	-	28.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	14.000	0.1071	0.1875	0.1429	0.1071	0.0000	0.0714	0.0714	0.5000
season	0.20	27	-	87.000	17.000	6.000	1.000	13.000	9.000	5.000	40.000	0.1954	0.2474	0.2989	0.1954	0.0115	0.1494	0.0575	0.4598

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0710
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.7040
predicted_AVG	0.1140
predicted_BB	0.2000
predicted_H	0.3090
predicted_HBP	0.1480
predicted_HR	0.0060
predicted_OBP	0.2051
predicted_R	0.2590
predicted_RBI	0.2500
predicted_SLG	0.1473
predicted_SO	1.2290

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2220	0.0710	0.1238	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2220	2.7040	2.8853	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1140	0.1140	0.1140	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1850	0.2000	0.1948	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3100	0.3090	0.3094	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1480	0.1480	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0060	0.0074	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2050	0.2051	0.2051	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.2590	0.2849	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2500	0.2500	0.2500	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1470	0.1473	0.1472	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4810	1.2290	1.3172	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.195

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260505_BAL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	683357
playerID	683357
playerName	Owen Caissie
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	MIA
teamID	15

Christopher Morel (666624) · BATTER · DH · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 4

All-history rows before 20260506: 4

System season_avg: 0.3080

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3077

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_AB	3.250	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.250	3.000	0.750	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.308	0.750	0.750	Hitting_AVG	0.308	0.333	0.442	0.417
predicted_BB	0.250	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.250	0.000	0.750	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.870	3.000	3.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.400	0.800	0.800	Hitting_OBP	0.400	0.333	0.400	0.467
predicted_R	0.250	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.250	0.000	0.750	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.000	3.000	3.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	3.000	3.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.308	1.250	1.250	Hitting_SLG	0.308	0.333	0.942	0.917
predicted_SO	1.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.250	2.000	-1.250	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.250	-
predicted_AVG	0.308	-
predicted_BB	0.250	-
predicted_H	0.870	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.400	-
predicted_R	0.250	-
predicted_RBI	0.000	-
predicted_SLG	0.308	-
predicted_SO	1.250	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.250	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.308	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.250	0.000
predicted_H	0.955	0.085
predicted_HBP	0.250	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.400	0.000
predicted_R	0.250	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.308	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.250	0.000

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.25), rates preserved: AVG=0.294 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	1.000	1.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	3.000	3.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 4

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	4	-	13.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.3077	0.4000	0.3077	0.3077	0.0769	0.3846
last_10	0.35	4	-	13.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.3077	0.4000	0.3077	0.3077	0.0769	0.3846
season	0.20	4	-	13.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.3077	0.4000	0.3077	0.3077	0.0769	0.3846

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.2500
predicted_AVG	0.3077
predicted_BB	0.2500
predicted_H	1.0000
predicted_HBP	0.2500
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.4000
predicted_R	0.2500
predicted_RBI	0.0000
predicted_SLG	0.3077
predicted_SO	1.2500

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2500	3.2500	3.2500	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3080	0.3077	0.3078	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2500	0.2500	0.2500	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8700	1.0000	0.9545	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.2500	0.2500	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4000	0.4000	0.4000	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2500	0.2500	0.2500	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3080	0.3077	0.3078	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2500	1.2500	1.2500	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	4
Season rows before report date	4
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	4
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	3
2B	0
3B	1
HR	0
R	1
RBI	3
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.308

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260504_PHI@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	666624
playerID	666624
playerName	Christopher Morel
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	MIA
teamID	15

Javier Sanoja (691594) · BATTER · SS · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 18

All-history rows before 20260506: 18

System season_avg: 0.3060

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3065

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.222	1.000	-0.222	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.444	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.444	3.000	1.556	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.239	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.306	0.333	-0.306	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.278	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.278	0.000	-0.278	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_H	0.680	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.056	1.000	-1.056	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.319	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.358	0.333	-0.358	-0.333
predicted_R	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.389	0.000	-0.389	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.291	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.371	0.667	-0.371	-0.667
predicted_SO	0.556	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.556	1.000	1.444	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.222	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.444	-
predicted_AVG	0.239	-
predicted_BB	0.278	-
predicted_H	0.680	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.319	-
predicted_R	0.111	-
predicted_RBI	0.060	-
predicted_SLG	0.291	-
predicted_SO	0.556	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.188	-0.035
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.317	-0.127
predicted_AVG	0.239	0.000
predicted_BB	0.342	0.064
predicted_H	0.744	0.064
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.319	-0.000
predicted_R	0.135	0.024
predicted_RBI	0.068	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.291	0.000
predicted_SO	0.639	0.083

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.44), rates preserved: AVG=0.216 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	2.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	0.2500	0.3333	0.3125	0.2500	0.0000	0.1250	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	32.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	6.000	0.1875	0.2778	0.2188	0.1875	0.0000	0.1250	0.1875
season	0.20	18	-	62.000	19.000	4.000	7.000	2.000	5.000	10.000	0.3065	0.3582	0.3710	0.3065	0.1129	0.0806	0.1613

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1690
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.2490
predicted_AVG	0.2394
predicted_BB	0.3770
predicted_H	0.7780
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.3189
predicted_R	0.1480
predicted_RBI	0.0730
predicted_SLG	0.2914
predicted_SO	0.6840

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2220	0.1690	0.1875	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4440	3.2490	3.3172	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2390	0.2394	0.2393	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2780	0.3770	0.3424	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6800	0.7780	0.7437	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3190	0.3189	0.3189	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1110	0.1480	0.1351	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0600	0.0730	0.0684	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2910	0.2914	0.2913	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5560	0.6840	0.6392	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.306

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260503_PHI@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	691594
playerID	691594
playerName	Javier Sanoja
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	MIA
teamID	15

Joe Mack (691788) · BATTER · C · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 2

All-history rows before 20260506: 2

System season_avg: 0.2860

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2857

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.500	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	4.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.286	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.286	0.500	-0.036	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.830	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	2.000	0.000	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.286	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.286	0.500	0.114	-0.100
predicted_R	0.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	1.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.286	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.286	0.500	-0.036	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.286	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.830	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.286	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.286	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.500	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.286	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.941	0.111
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.286	-0.000
predicted_R	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.472	0.052
predicted_SLG	0.286	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	0.000

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.269 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total RBI	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	2	-	7.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	0.2857	0.2857	0.2857	0.2857	0.1429	0.2857
last_10	0.35	2	-	7.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	0.2857	0.2857	0.2857	0.2857	0.1429	0.2857
season	0.20	2	-	7.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	0.2857	0.2857	0.2857	0.2857	0.1429	0.2857

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.5000
predicted_AVG	0.2857
predicted_BB	0.0000
predicted_H	1.0000
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.2857
predicted_R	0.0000
predicted_RBI	0.5000
predicted_SLG	0.2857
predicted_SO	1.0000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5000	3.5000	3.5000	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2860	0.2857	0.2858	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8300	1.0000	0.9405	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2860	0.2857	0.2858	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.5000	0.4720	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2860	0.2857	0.2858	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.286

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260505_BAL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	691788
playerID	691788
playerName	Joe Mack
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	MIA
teamID	15

Eury Pérez (691587) · PITCHER · Starter · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 7

All-history rows before 20260506: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	2.571	2.000	-1.571	-1.000
predicted_IP	5.000	5.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.157	5.000	-0.157	0.000
predicted_SO	6.000	6.000	-	Pitching_SO	5.571	6.000	0.429	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 5.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	25.333	11.000	27.000	9.000	27.000	3.000	3.9079	1.4211	0.4342	1.0658	0.3553	1.0658	0.1184
last_10	0.35	7	36.333	18.000	34.000	16.000	39.000	6.000	4.4587	1.3761	0.4954	0.9358	0.4404	1.0734	0.1651
season	0.20	7	36.333	18.000	34.000	16.000	39.000	6.000	4.4587	1.3761	0.4954	0.9358	0.4404	1.0734	0.1651

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.0650
predicted_ER	2.4020
predicted_ERA	4.2108
predicted_H	5.1050
predicted_HR	0.7400
predicted_IP	5.1350
predicted_SO	5.4940
predicted_WHIP	1.3963

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	2.0650	1.6923	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	2.4020	1.9113	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.2108	4.2108	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	5.1050	4.7183	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.7400	0.8310	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.0000	5.1350	5.0877	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	6.0000	5.4940	5.6711	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3963	1.3963	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.0
H	4
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	6
HR	1
BF	20
Pitches	88

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	22
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	4.46
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	5
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.0
Pitching_Pitches	96
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	6
Pitching_Strikes	68
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260501_PHI@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	691587
playerID	691587
playerName	Eury Pérez
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	MIA
teamID	15

Anthony Bender (669622) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 16

All-history rows before 20260506: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.438	0.000	0.562	1.000
predicted_IP	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.650	0.200	1.350	1.800
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	0.000	4.000	5.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 2.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.333	0.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	0.0000	0.4615	0.0000	0.4615	0.0000	0.6923
last_10	0.35	10	8.667	3.000	6.000	3.000	9.000	3.1154	1.0385	0.3462	0.6923	0.3462	1.0385
season	0.20	16	13.667	7.000	11.000	8.000	16.000	4.6098	1.3902	0.5122	0.8049	0.5854	1.1707

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2060
predicted_ER	0.1930
predicted_ERA	2.0124
predicted_H	0.5280
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	0.8640
predicted_SO	0.7860
predicted_WHIP	0.8492

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2060	0.1339	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.1930	0.4754	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.0124	2.0124	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.5280	0.6932	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	2.0000	0.8640	1.2616	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	0.7860	2.2609	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.8492	0.8492	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.0
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	5
HR	0
BF	7
Pitches	38

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	2
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.61
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	6
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	4
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_BAL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	669622
playerID	669622
playerName	Anthony Bender
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIA
teamID	15

Calvin Faucher (676534) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 15

All-history rows before 20260506: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.773	1.000	0.227	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	3.000	3.6000	1.4000	0.4000	0.6000	0.8000	0.6000
last_10	0.35	10	8.667	3.000	6.000	8.000	8.000	3.1154	1.6154	0.3462	0.6923	0.9231	0.9231
season	0.20	15	13.000	6.000	9.000	12.000	15.000	4.1538	1.6154	0.4615	0.6923	0.9231	1.1539

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.8040
predicted_ER	0.3650
predicted_ERA	3.5412
predicted_H	0.6030
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	0.9270
predicted_SO	0.7630
predicted_WHIP	1.5185

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.8040	0.5226	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3650	0.2372	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.5412	3.5412	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.6030	1.0919	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.9270	0.9526	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.7630	1.1959	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5185	1.5185	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.15
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_PHI@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	676534
playerID	676534
playerName	Calvin Faucher
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIA
teamID	15

John King (667463) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 17

All-history rows before 20260506: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.729	0.200	0.271	0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.824	0.000	0.176	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.667	0.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.0000	0.2143	0.0000	0.2143	0.0000	0.4286	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.667	1.000	3.000	2.000	9.000	1.000	0.8438	0.4688	0.0938	0.2812	0.1875	0.8438	0.0938
season	0.20	17	15.667	1.000	3.000	5.000	14.000	1.000	0.5745	0.5106	0.0638	0.1915	0.3191	0.8936	0.0638

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1270
predicted_ER	0.0450
predicted_ERA	0.4102
predicted_H	0.2280
predicted_HR	0.0450
predicted_IP	0.9780
predicted_SO	0.6520
predicted_WHIP	0.3626

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1270	0.0825	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.0450	0.0292	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.4102	0.4102	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.2280	0.4982	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0450	0.0292	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.9780	0.9857	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.6520	0.7738	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.3626	0.3626	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	2
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.57
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	10
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_PHI@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	667463
playerID	667463
playerName	John King
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIA
teamID	15

Tyler Phillips (663969) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 11

All-history rows before 20260506: 11

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.273	0.000	1.727	2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.855	3.000	-0.855	-2.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	2.000	3.000	-2.000	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	9.333	2.000	10.000	4.000	7.000	1.000	1.9286	1.5000	0.2143	1.0714	0.4286	0.7500	0.1071
last_10	0.35	10	19.333	3.000	16.000	12.000	20.000	1.000	1.3966	1.4483	0.1552	0.8276	0.6207	1.0345	0.0517
season	0.20	11	21.333	3.000	17.000	12.000	22.000	1.000	1.2656	1.3594	0.1406	0.7969	0.5625	1.0312	0.0469

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.9950
predicted_ER	0.3410
predicted_ERA	1.6098
predicted_H	1.7730
predicted_HR	0.1440
predicted_IP	1.9050
predicted_SO	1.7250
predicted_WHIP	1.4538

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.9950	0.9968	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.3410	0.9216	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.6098	1.6098	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	1.7730	2.2024	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1440	0.0936	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.9050	1.5882	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.7250	1.1213	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4538	1.4538	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	3
R	2
ER	2
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	7
Pitches	32

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	13
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.27
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	3.0
Pitching_Pitches	47
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	35
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_PHI@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	663969
playerID	663969
playerName	Tyler Phillips
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIA
teamID	15

20260506_BOS@DET

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3, "confidence": 0.6024764438679078, "home_win_probability": 0.3975235561320922, "away_win_probability": 0.6024764438679078, "predicted_score_text": "BOS 5 - 3 DET", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to final winner probability with starter-quality caps.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "predicted_score_text": "BOS 5 - 4 DET", "confidence": 0.6024764438679078, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score", "final_prediction_synced": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "BOS 5 - 4 DET", "winner": "BOS"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "BOS 5 - 3 DET", "winner": "BOS"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": -1, "total_run_delta": -1, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"}}

Away Team: BOS

Jarren Duran (680776) · BATTER · LF · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 29

All-history rows before 20260506: 29

System season_avg: 0.1980

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1983

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.172	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.172	0.000	-0.172	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.190	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	4.172	5.000	0.828	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.245	0.400	0.400	Hitting_AVG	0.198	0.000	0.202	0.400
predicted_BB	0.276	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.276	0.000	-0.276	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.030	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.828	0.000	1.172	2.000
predicted_HR	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.138	0.000	-0.138	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.281	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.254	0.000	0.146	0.400
predicted_R	0.621	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.621	0.000	0.379	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.920	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.621	0.000	-0.621	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.207	0.000	-0.207	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.518	0.400	0.400	Hitting_SLG	0.339	0.000	0.061	0.400
predicted_SO	1.138	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.138	3.000	-0.138	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.172	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.190	-
predicted_AVG	0.245	-
predicted_BB	0.276	-
predicted_H	1.030	-
predicted_HR	0.370	-
predicted_OBP	0.281	-
predicted_R	0.621	-
predicted_RBI	0.920	-
predicted_SLG	0.518	-
predicted_SO	1.138	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.084	-0.088
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.401	0.211
predicted_AVG	0.245	0.000
predicted_BB	0.238	-0.038
predicted_H	1.080	0.050
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.388	0.018
predicted_OBP	0.281	0.000
predicted_R	0.611	-0.010
predicted_RBI	0.967	0.047
predicted_SLG	0.518	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.206	0.068

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.40), rates preserved: AVG=0.245 HR/AB=0.088

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 4.190

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	23.000	7.000	0.000	3.000	7.000	3.000	1.000	7.000	0.3043	0.3333	0.6957	0.3044	0.1304	0.3044	0.0435	0.3044
last_10	0.35	10	-	46.000	9.000	0.000	3.000	7.000	6.000	2.000	11.000	0.1957	0.2292	0.3913	0.1956	0.0652	0.1522	0.0435	0.2391
season	0.20	29	-	121.000	24.000	5.000	4.000	18.000	18.000	8.000	33.000	0.1983	0.2538	0.3388	0.1983	0.0331	0.1488	0.0661	0.2727

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0370
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.5140
predicted_AVG	0.2451
predicted_BB	0.2170
predicted_H	1.1070
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.3980
predicted_OBP	0.2810
predicted_R	0.6050
predicted_RBI	0.9930
predicted_SLG	0.5178
predicted_SO	1.2420

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1720	0.0370	0.0842	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1900	4.5140	4.4006	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2450	0.2451	0.2451	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2760	0.2170	0.2377	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0300	1.1070	1.0800	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3700	0.3980	0.3882	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2810	0.2810	0.2810	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6210	0.6050	0.6106	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.9200	0.9930	0.9674	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5180	0.5178	0.5179	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1380	1.2420	1.2056	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.198

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260505_BOS@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	680776
playerID	680776
playerName	Jarren Duran
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	BOS
teamID	4

Masataka Yoshida (807799) · BATTER · DH · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 13

All-history rows before 20260506: 13

System season_avg: 0.2670

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2667

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.231	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.231	0.000	0.769	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.462	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.462	3.000	0.538	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.259	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.267	0.333	0.233	0.167
predicted_BB	0.615	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.615	0.000	-0.615	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.840	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.923	1.000	1.077	1.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.324	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.389	0.333	0.111	0.167
predicted_R	0.385	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.385	0.000	0.615	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.180	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.308	0.000	0.692	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.299	0.750	0.750	Hitting_SLG	0.333	0.333	0.417	0.417
predicted_SO	0.385	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.385	1.000	0.615	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.231	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.462	-
predicted_AVG	0.259	-
predicted_BB	0.615	-
predicted_H	0.840	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.324	-
predicted_R	0.385	-
predicted_RBI	0.180	-
predicted_SLG	0.299	-
predicted_SO	0.385	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.180	-0.051
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.638	0.175
predicted_AVG	0.259	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.426	-0.189
predicted_H	0.921	0.081
predicted_HBP	0.051	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.324	-0.000
predicted_R	0.415	0.030
predicted_RBI	0.196	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.299	0.000
predicted_SO	0.336	-0.049

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.64), rates preserved: AVG=0.253 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	0.2105	0.2500	0.2105	0.2105	0.0000	0.0526	0.0526
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	12.000	3.000	4.000	5.000	3.000	4.000	0.3158	0.3810	0.3947	0.3158	0.1053	0.0790	0.1053
season	0.20	13	-	45.000	12.000	3.000	4.000	5.000	8.000	5.000	0.2667	0.3889	0.3333	0.2667	0.0889	0.1778	0.1111

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1530
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7320
predicted_AVG	0.2586
predicted_BB	0.3240
predicted_H	0.9650
predicted_HBP	0.0510
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.3236
predicted_R	0.4320
predicted_RBI	0.2040
predicted_SLG	0.2995
predicted_SO	0.3090

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2310	0.1530	0.1803	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4620	3.7320	3.6375	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2590	0.2586	0.2587	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6150	0.3240	0.4259	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8400	0.9650	0.9212	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0510	0.0510	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3240	0.3236	0.3237	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3850	0.4320	0.4155	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1800	0.2040	0.1956	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2990	0.2995	0.2993	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3850	0.3090	0.3356	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.267

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260428_BOS@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	807799
playerID	807799
playerName	Masataka Yoshida
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	BOS
teamID	4

Trevor Story (596115) · BATTER · SS · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 34

All-history rows before 20260506: 34

System season_avg: 0.2090

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2086

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.176	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.176	0.000	-0.176	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.088	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	4.088	4.000	0.912	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.264	0.400	0.400	Hitting_AVG	0.209	0.250	0.191	0.150
predicted_BB	0.206	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.206	0.000	-0.206	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.030	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.853	1.000	1.147	1.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.319	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.248	0.400	0.152	0.000
predicted_R	0.382	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.382	2.000	0.618	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.220	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.529	0.000	0.471	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.088	1.000	-0.088	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.313	0.400	0.400	Hitting_SLG	0.295	0.250	0.105	0.150
predicted_SO	1.324	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.324	1.000	-0.324	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.176	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.088	-
predicted_AVG	0.264	-
predicted_BB	0.206	-
predicted_H	1.030	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.319	-
predicted_R	0.382	-
predicted_RBI	0.220	-
predicted_SLG	0.313	-
predicted_SO	1.324	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.166	-0.010
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.043	-0.045
predicted_AVG	0.264	0.000
predicted_BB	0.203	-0.003
predicted_H	1.051	0.021
predicted_HBP	0.131	-
predicted_HR	0.011	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.319	0.000
predicted_R	0.414	0.032
predicted_RBI	0.227	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.313	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.155	-0.169

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.09), rates preserved: AVG=0.257 HR/AB=0.003

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 4.088

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	0.3000	0.3636	0.3500	0.3000	0.0000	0.0500	0.0500	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	10.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	10.000	0.2500	0.3023	0.2750	0.2500	0.0000	0.0250	0.0500	0.2500
season	0.20	34	-	139.000	29.000	6.000	2.000	18.000	13.000	7.000	45.000	0.2086	0.2483	0.2950	0.2086	0.0144	0.1295	0.0504	0.3237

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1600
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.0180
predicted_AVG	0.2642
predicted_BB	0.2010
predicted_H	1.0620
predicted_HBP	0.1310
predicted_HR	0.0120
predicted_OBP	0.3191
predicted_R	0.4320
predicted_RBI	0.2300
predicted_SLG	0.3128
predicted_SO	1.0640

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1760	0.1600	0.1656	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0880	4.0180	4.0425	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2640	0.2642	0.2641	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2060	0.2010	0.2028	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0300	1.0620	1.0508	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1310	0.1310	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0120	0.0113	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3190	0.3191	0.3191	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3820	0.4320	0.4145	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2200	0.2300	0.2265	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3130	0.3128	0.3129	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3240	1.0640	1.1550	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.209

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260505_BOS@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	596115
playerID	596115
playerName	Trevor Story
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	BOS
teamID	4

Wilyer Abreu (677800) · BATTER · RF · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 35

All-history rows before 20260506: 35

System season_avg: 0.3110

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3106

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.171	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.171	0.000	-0.171	0.000
predicted_3B	0.029	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_AB	3.771	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.771	4.000	1.229	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.335	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.311	0.750	-0.311	-0.750
predicted_BB	0.514	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.514	1.000	-0.514	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_H	1.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.171	3.000	-1.171	-3.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.143	1.000	-0.143	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.475	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.393	0.800	-0.393	-0.800
predicted_R	0.514	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.514	2.000	-0.514	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.457	1.000	-0.457	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.057	1.000	-0.057	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.483	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.485	1.500	-0.485	-1.500
predicted_SO	0.800	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.800	1.000	1.200	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.171	-
predicted_3B	0.029	-
predicted_AB	3.771	-
predicted_AVG	0.335	-
predicted_BB	0.514	-
predicted_H	1.220	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.475	-
predicted_R	0.514	-
predicted_RBI	0.500	-
predicted_SLG	0.483	-
predicted_SO	0.800	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.104	-0.067
predicted_3B	0.014	-0.015
predicted_AB	3.705	-0.066
predicted_AVG	0.335	0.000
predicted_BB	0.829	0.315
predicted_H	1.226	0.006
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.153	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.475	0.000
predicted_R	0.537	0.023
predicted_RBI	0.502	0.002
predicted_SLG	0.483	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.920	0.120

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.77), rates preserved: AVG=0.325 HR/AB=0.040

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, BvP AVG=0.167)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	6.000	6.000	0.3333	0.5000	0.5000	0.3333	0.0556	0.1667	0.3333	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	13.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	5.000	10.000	8.000	0.3514	0.4894	0.4595	0.3513	0.0270	0.1081	0.2703	0.2162
season	0.20	35	-	132.000	41.000	6.000	1.000	5.000	16.000	18.000	18.000	28.000	0.3106	0.3933	0.4848	0.3106	0.0379	0.1212	0.1364	0.2121

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0680
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.6690
predicted_AVG	0.3351
predicted_BB	0.9980
predicted_H	1.2300
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1540
predicted_OBP	0.4750
predicted_R	0.5490
predicted_RBI	0.5030
predicted_SLG	0.4828
predicted_SO	0.9840

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1710	0.0680	0.1041	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0290	0.0060	0.0140	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7710	3.6690	3.7047	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3350	0.3351	0.3351	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5140	0.9980	0.8286	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2200	1.2300	1.2265	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1540	0.1526	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4750	0.4750	0.4750	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5140	0.5490	0.5368	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5000	0.5030	0.5020	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4830	0.4828	0.4829	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8000	0.9840	0.9196	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.311

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.75
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	6
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260505_BOS@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	677800
playerID	677800
playerName	Wilyer Abreu
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	BOS
teamID	4

Caleb Durbin (702332) · BATTER · 3B · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 32

All-history rows before 20260506: 32

System season_avg: 0.1770

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1770

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.188	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.188	0.000	-0.188	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.531	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.531	5.000	0.469	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.218	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.177	0.400	-0.177	-0.400
predicted_BB	0.344	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.344	0.000	-0.344	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.031	0.000	-0.031	0.000
predicted_H	0.630	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.625	2.000	-0.625	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.031	0.000	-0.031	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.279	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.262	0.400	-0.262	-0.400
predicted_R	0.438	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.438	1.000	-0.438	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.344	1.000	-0.344	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.094	0.000	-0.094	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.272	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.257	0.400	-0.257	-0.400
predicted_SO	0.531	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.531	1.000	1.469	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.188	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.531	-
predicted_AVG	0.218	-
predicted_BB	0.344	-
predicted_H	0.630	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.279	-
predicted_R	0.438	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.272	-
predicted_SO	0.531	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.115	-0.073
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.625	0.094
predicted_AVG	0.218	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.317	-0.027
predicted_H	0.741	0.111
predicted_HBP	0.013	-
predicted_HR	0.038	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.279	-0.000
predicted_R	0.488	0.050
predicted_RBI	0.314	0.043
predicted_SLG	0.272	0.000
predicted_SO	0.464	-0.067

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.63), rates preserved: AVG=0.204 HR/AB=0.010

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	0.2105	0.2500	0.2105	0.2105	0.0000	0.0526	0.0526	0.1053
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	9.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	7.000	4.000	4.000	0.2500	0.3250	0.3611	0.2500	0.0278	0.1389	0.1111	0.1111
season	0.20	32	-	113.000	20.000	6.000	1.000	11.000	14.000	11.000	17.000	0.1770	0.2619	0.2566	0.1770	0.0089	0.0974	0.0974	0.1504

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0750
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.6760
predicted_AVG	0.2176
predicted_BB	0.3020
predicted_H	0.8000
predicted_HBP	0.0130
predicted_HR	0.0420
predicted_OBP	0.2786
predicted_R	0.5150
predicted_RBI	0.3370
predicted_SLG	0.2724
predicted_SO	0.4280

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1880	0.0750	0.1145	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5310	3.6760	3.6253	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2180	0.2176	0.2177	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3440	0.3020	0.3167	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6300	0.8000	0.7405	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0130	0.0130	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0420	0.0378	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2790	0.2786	0.2787	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4380	0.5150	0.4881	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.3370	0.3135	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2720	0.2724	0.2723	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5310	0.4280	0.4640	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.177

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260505_BOS@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	702332
playerID	702332
playerName	Caleb Durbin
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	BOS
teamID	4

Willson Contreras (575929) · BATTER · 1B · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 35

All-history rows before 20260506: 35

System season_avg: 0.2700

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2698

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.114	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.114	0.000	-0.114	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.600	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.600	4.000	0.400	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.316	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.270	0.250	-0.270	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.486	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.486	1.000	0.514	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.971	1.000	-0.971	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.229	1.000	-0.229	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.413	0.200	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.382	0.400	-0.182	-0.200
predicted_R	0.543	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.543	2.000	-0.543	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.600	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.629	1.000	-0.629	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.584	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.492	1.000	-0.492	-1.000
predicted_SO	1.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.200	1.000	-1.200	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.114	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.600	-
predicted_AVG	0.316	-
predicted_BB	0.486	-
predicted_H	1.090	-
predicted_HR	0.250	-
predicted_OBP	0.413	-
predicted_R	0.543	-
predicted_RBI	0.600	-
predicted_SLG	0.584	-
predicted_SO	1.200	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.158	0.044
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.704	0.104
predicted_AVG	0.316	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.522	0.036
predicted_H	1.153	0.063
predicted_HBP	0.200	-
predicted_HR	0.266	0.016
predicted_OBP	0.413	-0.000
predicted_R	0.640	0.097
predicted_RBI	0.636	0.036
predicted_SLG	0.584	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.155	-0.045

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.70), rates preserved: AVG=0.311 HR/AB=0.072

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=28.0, BvP AVG=0.250)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	6.000	0.3158	0.4167	0.5263	0.3158	0.0526	0.1053	0.1579	0.3158
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	13.000	2.000	4.000	10.000	9.000	5.000	10.000	0.3421	0.4255	0.7105	0.3421	0.1053	0.2632	0.1316	0.2632
season	0.20	35	-	126.000	34.000	4.000	8.000	22.000	19.000	17.000	42.000	0.2698	0.3816	0.4921	0.2698	0.0635	0.1746	0.1349	0.3333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1820
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7600
predicted_AVG	0.3158
predicted_BB	0.5420
predicted_H	1.1870
predicted_HBP	0.2000
predicted_HR	0.2750
predicted_OBP	0.4128
predicted_R	0.6920
predicted_RBI	0.6560
predicted_SLG	0.5839
predicted_SO	1.1310

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1140	0.1820	0.1582	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6000	3.7600	3.7040	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3160	0.3158	0.3159	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4860	0.5420	0.5224	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0900	1.1870	1.1531	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.2000	0.2000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2500	0.2750	0.2662	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4130	0.4128	0.4129	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5430	0.6920	0.6399	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6000	0.6560	0.6364	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5840	0.5839	0.5839	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2000	1.1310	1.1552	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.27

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260505_BOS@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	575929
playerID	575929
playerName	Willson Contreras
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	BOS
teamID	4

Ceddanne Rafaela (678882) · BATTER · CF · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 31

All-history rows before 20260506: 31

System season_avg: 0.2740

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2743

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.129	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.129	0.000	-0.129	0.000
predicted_3B	0.065	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.065	0.000	-0.065	0.000
predicted_AB	3.645	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.645	5.000	0.355	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.313	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.274	0.600	0.226	-0.100
predicted_BB	0.194	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.194	0.000	-0.194	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.097	0.000	-0.097	0.000
predicted_H	0.990	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	1.000	3.000	1.000	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.065	1.000	-0.065	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.351	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.339	0.600	0.161	-0.100
predicted_R	0.452	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.452	2.000	0.548	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.520	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.387	4.000	0.613	-3.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.032	0.000	-0.032	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.469	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.398	1.200	0.102	-0.700
predicted_SO	0.903	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.903	1.000	-0.903	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.129	-
predicted_3B	0.065	-
predicted_AB	3.645	-
predicted_AVG	0.313	-
predicted_BB	0.194	-
predicted_H	0.990	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.351	-
predicted_R	0.452	-
predicted_RBI	0.520	-
predicted_SLG	0.469	-
predicted_SO	0.903	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.086	-0.043
predicted_3B	0.077	0.012
predicted_AB	3.934	0.289
predicted_AVG	0.313	0.000
predicted_BB	0.119	-0.075
predicted_H	1.179	0.189
predicted_HBP	0.158	-
predicted_HR	0.127	0.017
predicted_OBP	0.351	-0.000
predicted_R	0.449	-0.003
predicted_RBI	0.621	0.101
predicted_SLG	0.469	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.897	-0.006

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.93), rates preserved: AVG=0.300 HR/AB=0.032

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	7.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	0.3333	0.3636	0.4762	0.3333	0.0476	0.1905	0.0000	0.1905
last_10	0.35	10	-	42.000	13.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	7.000	5.000	1.000	10.000	0.3095	0.3409	0.5000	0.3095	0.0238	0.1667	0.0238	0.2381
season	0.20	31	-	113.000	31.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	12.000	14.000	6.000	28.000	0.2743	0.3387	0.3982	0.2743	0.0177	0.1062	0.0531	0.2478

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0630
predicted_3B	0.0830
predicted_AB	4.0890
predicted_AVG	0.3132
predicted_BB	0.0780
predicted_H	1.2810
predicted_HBP	0.1580
predicted_HR	0.1360
predicted_OBP	0.3507
predicted_R	0.4470
predicted_RBI	0.6760
predicted_SLG	0.4689
predicted_SO	0.8940

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1290	0.0630	0.0861	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0650	0.0830	0.0767	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6450	4.0890	3.9336	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3130	0.3132	0.3131	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1940	0.0780	0.1186	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9900	1.2810	1.1791	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1580	0.1580	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1360	0.1269	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3510	0.3507	0.3508	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4520	0.4470	0.4488	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5200	0.6760	0.6214	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4690	0.4689	0.4689	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9030	0.8940	0.8972	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.274

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.6
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	4
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	6
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260505_BOS@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	678882
playerID	678882
playerName	Ceddanne Rafaela
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	BOS
teamID	4

Marcelo Mayer (691785) · BATTER · 2B · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 26

All-history rows before 20260506: 26

System season_avg: 0.2380

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2381

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.192	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.192	0.000	-0.192	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.231	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.231	4.000	0.769	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.300	0.750	0.750	Hitting_AVG	0.238	0.500	0.512	0.250
predicted_BB	0.269	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.269	0.000	-0.269	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.810	3.000	3.000	Hitting_H	0.769	2.000	2.231	1.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.038	0.000	-0.038	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.350	0.750	0.750	Hitting_OBP	0.309	0.500	0.441	0.250
predicted_R	0.192	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.192	0.000	0.808	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.260	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	0.308	1.000	1.692	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.351	0.750	0.750	Hitting_SLG	0.333	0.500	0.417	0.250
predicted_SO	0.654	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.654	1.000	-0.654	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.192	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.231	-
predicted_AVG	0.300	-
predicted_BB	0.269	-
predicted_H	0.810	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.350	-
predicted_R	0.192	-
predicted_RBI	0.260	-
predicted_SLG	0.351	-
predicted_SO	0.654	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.165	-0.027
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.354	0.123
predicted_AVG	0.300	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.155	-0.114
predicted_H	0.950	0.140
predicted_HBP	0.174	-
predicted_HR	0.009	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.350	-0.000
predicted_R	0.117	-0.075
predicted_RBI	0.307	0.047
predicted_SLG	0.351	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.715	0.061

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.35), rates preserved: AVG=0.283 HR/AB=0.003

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 26

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	5.000	0.2778	0.3158	0.2778	0.2778	0.0000	0.0556	0.0000	0.2778
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	12.000	3.000	0.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.3636	0.4167	0.4545	0.3636	0.0000	0.1515	0.0303	0.1515
season	0.20	26	-	84.000	20.000	5.000	1.000	8.000	5.000	7.000	17.000	0.2381	0.3085	0.3333	0.2381	0.0119	0.0952	0.0833	0.2024

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1500
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.4210
predicted_AVG	0.2999
predicted_BB	0.0930
predicted_H	1.0260
predicted_HBP	0.1740
predicted_HR	0.0080
predicted_OBP	0.3497
predicted_R	0.0770
predicted_RBI	0.3320
predicted_SLG	0.3507
predicted_SO	0.7480

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1920	0.1500	0.1647	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2310	3.4210	3.3545	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3000	0.2999	0.2999	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2690	0.0930	0.1546	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8100	1.0260	0.9504	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1740	0.1740	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0080	0.0087	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3500	0.3497	0.3498	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1920	0.0770	0.1172	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2600	0.3320	0.3068	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3510	0.3507	0.3508	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6540	0.7480	0.7151	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	26
Season rows before report date	26
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	26
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	3
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.238

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260504_BOS@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	691785
playerID	691785
playerName	Marcelo Mayer
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	BOS
teamID	4

Carlos Narváez (665966) · BATTER · C · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 22

All-history rows before 20260506: 22

System season_avg: 0.2190

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2192

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.136	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.136	0.000	-0.136	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.318	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.318	3.000	0.682	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.188	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.219	0.000	0.031	0.250
predicted_BB	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.182	1.000	-0.182	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.520	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.727	0.000	0.273	1.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.262	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.260	0.250	-0.010	0.000
predicted_R	0.364	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.364	1.000	-0.364	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.136	0.000	-0.136	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.045	0.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.423	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.342	0.000	-0.092	0.250
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.136	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.318	-
predicted_AVG	0.188	-
predicted_BB	0.182	-
predicted_H	0.520	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.262	-
predicted_R	0.364	-
predicted_RBI	0.190	-
predicted_SLG	0.423	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.193	0.056
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.257	-0.061
predicted_AVG	0.188	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.273	0.091
predicted_H	0.575	0.055
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.169	0.019
predicted_OBP	0.262	-0.000
predicted_R	0.465	0.101
predicted_RBI	0.211	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.423	0.000
predicted_SO	0.955	-0.045

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.32), rates preserved: AVG=0.173 HR/AB=0.051

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	5.000	0.1250	0.2222	0.3750	0.1250	0.0625	0.0625	0.1250	0.3125
last_10	0.35	10	-	32.000	8.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	3.000	8.000	0.2500	0.3143	0.5312	0.2500	0.0625	0.0938	0.0938	0.2500
season	0.20	22	-	73.000	16.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	8.000	4.000	22.000	0.2192	0.2597	0.3425	0.2192	0.0274	0.0411	0.0548	0.3014

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2230
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.2240
predicted_AVG	0.1876
predicted_BB	0.3220
predicted_H	0.6050
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1790
predicted_OBP	0.2619
predicted_R	0.5190
predicted_RBI	0.2230
predicted_SLG	0.4232
predicted_SO	0.9300

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1360	0.2230	0.1925	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3180	3.2240	3.2569	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1880	0.1876	0.1877	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1820	0.3220	0.2730	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5200	0.6050	0.5753	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1790	0.1689	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2620	0.2619	0.2619	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3640	0.5190	0.4647	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1900	0.2230	0.2114	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4230	0.4232	0.4231	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9300	0.9545	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.219

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260504_BOS@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	665966
playerID	665966
playerName	Carlos Narváez
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	BOS
teamID	4

Sonny Gray (543243) · PITCHER · Starter · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 5

All-history rows before 20260506: 5

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	2.200	1.000	-1.200	0.000
predicted_IP	6.000	6.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.460	2.200	1.540	3.800
predicted_SO	6.000	6.000	-	Pitching_SO	2.600	2.000	3.400	4.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 5

Reference playing time: 6.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	23.000	11.000	25.000	5.000	13.000	3.000	4.3043	1.3043	0.4783	1.0870	0.2174	0.5652	0.1304
last_10	0.35	5	23.000	11.000	25.000	5.000	13.000	3.000	4.3043	1.3043	0.4783	1.0870	0.2174	0.5652	0.1304
season	0.20	5	23.000	11.000	25.000	5.000	13.000	3.000	4.3043	1.3043	0.4783	1.0870	0.2174	0.5652	0.1304

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.0000
predicted_ER	2.2000
predicted_ERA	4.3043
predicted_H	5.0000
predicted_HR	0.6000
predicted_IP	4.6000
predicted_SO	2.6000
predicted_WHIP	1.3043

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	2.2000	1.7800	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.3043	4.3043	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	5.0000	3.9500	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.6000	0.3900	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	6.0000	4.6000	5.0900	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	6.0000	2.6000	3.7900	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3043	1.3043	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	5
Season rows before report date	5
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	5
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	6.0
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	6
HR	0
BF	21
Pitches	94

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	11
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	4.30
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.2
Pitching_Pitches	40
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	27
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260420_DET@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	543243
playerID	543243
playerName	Sonny Gray
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	BOS
teamID	4

Aroldis Chapman (547973) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 12

All-history rows before 20260506: 12

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.083	0.000	-0.083
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.933	1.000	0.067
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.167	1.000	-0.167

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.667	0.000	3.000	0.000	7.000	0.0000	0.6429	0.0000	0.6429	0.0000	1.5000
last_10	0.35	10	9.667	1.000	7.000	3.000	13.000	0.9310	1.0345	0.1035	0.7241	0.3103	1.3448
season	0.20	12	11.667	1.000	7.000	3.000	14.000	0.7714	0.8571	0.0857	0.6000	0.2571	1.2000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1520
predicted_ER	0.0510
predicted_ERA	0.4801
predicted_H	0.6310
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	0.9530
predicted_SO	1.3200
predicted_WHIP	0.8228

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1520	0.0988	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.0510	0.0331	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.4801	0.4801	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6310	0.4102	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.9530	0.9694	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.3200	1.2080	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.8228	0.8228	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	3
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.77
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_BOS@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	547973
playerID	547973
playerName	Aroldis Chapman
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BOS
teamID	4

Garrett Whitlock (676477) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 14

All-history rows before 20260506: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.429	2.000	1.571	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.007	1.000	-0.007	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.214	2.000	-0.214	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.333	4.000	8.000	1.000	5.000	1.000	6.7500	1.6875	0.7500	1.5000	0.1875	0.9375	0.1875
last_10	0.35	10	10.333	5.000	10.000	2.000	11.000	2.000	4.3548	1.1613	0.4839	0.9677	0.1935	1.0645	0.1935
season	0.20	14	14.333	6.000	13.000	6.000	17.000	2.000	3.7674	1.3256	0.4186	0.9070	0.4186	1.1861	0.1395

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2470
predicted_ER	0.6180
predicted_ERA	5.3152
predicted_H	1.2510
predicted_HR	0.1880
predicted_IP	1.0460
predicted_SO	1.0800
predicted_WHIP	1.4309

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.2470	0.5105	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.6180	1.1017	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.3152	5.3152	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	1.2510	1.8631	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.1880	0.4722	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0460	1.0299	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0800	1.0520	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4309	1.4309	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	3
R	2
ER	2
BB	1
SO	1
HR	1
BF	7
Pitches	31

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	2
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	3.77
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	26
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	15
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_BOS@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	676477
playerID	676477
playerName	Garrett Whitlock
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BOS
teamID	4

Greg Weissert (669711) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 15

All-history rows before 20260506: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.533	1.000	-0.533	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.740	1.100	0.260	-0.100
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.200	1.000	0.800	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.333	3.000	10.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	6.2308	2.5385	0.6923	2.3077	0.2308	0.9231	0.2308
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	3.000	12.000	2.000	10.000	1.000	3.0000	1.5556	0.3333	1.3333	0.2222	1.1111	0.1111
season	0.20	15	13.667	8.000	17.000	4.000	18.000	4.000	5.2683	1.5366	0.5854	1.2439	0.2927	1.3171	0.2927

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2130
predicted_ER	0.4840
predicted_ERA	4.9075
predicted_H	1.5560
predicted_HR	0.1790
predicted_IP	0.8870
predicted_SO	0.9470
predicted_WHIP	1.9941

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.2130	0.4884	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4840	0.3146	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.9075	4.9075	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.5560	1.0114	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1790	0.1163	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.8870	0.9265	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.9470	1.3155	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.9941	1.9941	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	2
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	29

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	5.27
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	22
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	14
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_HOU@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	669711
playerID	669711
playerName	Greg Weissert
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BOS
teamID	4

Home Team: DET

Dillon Dingler (693307) · BATTER · C · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 27

All-history rows before 20260506: 27

System season_avg: 0.2620

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2621

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.815	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.815	4.000	0.185	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.235	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.262	0.250	-0.012	0.000
predicted_BB	0.259	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.259	0.000	-0.259	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.840	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.263	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.250	-0.083	0.000
predicted_R	0.444	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.444	0.000	-0.444	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.880	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.926	1.000	-0.926	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.415	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.495	0.250	-0.245	0.000
predicted_SO	0.741	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.741	2.000	0.259	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.222	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.815	-
predicted_AVG	0.235	-
predicted_BB	0.259	-
predicted_H	0.840	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.263	-
predicted_R	0.444	-
predicted_RBI	0.880	-
predicted_SLG	0.415	-
predicted_SO	0.741	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.211	-0.011
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.911	0.096
predicted_AVG	0.235	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.171	-0.088
predicted_H	0.899	0.059
predicted_HBP	0.031	-
predicted_HR	0.163	0.013
predicted_OBP	0.263	-0.000
predicted_R	0.296	-0.148
predicted_RBI	0.939	0.058
predicted_SLG	0.415	0.000
predicted_SO	0.852	0.111

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.91), rates preserved: AVG=0.230 HR/AB=0.042

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.815

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	5.000	0.2500	0.2500	0.4500	0.2500	0.0500	0.3000	0.0000	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	8.000	2.000	1.000	7.000	1.000	2.000	9.000	0.2000	0.2381	0.3250	0.2000	0.0250	0.1750	0.0500	0.2250
season	0.20	27	-	103.000	27.000	6.000	6.000	25.000	12.000	7.000	20.000	0.2621	0.3333	0.4951	0.2621	0.0583	0.2427	0.0680	0.1942

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2050
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.9630
predicted_AVG	0.2349
predicted_BB	0.1230
predicted_H	0.9310
predicted_HBP	0.0310
predicted_HR	0.1700
predicted_OBP	0.2625
predicted_R	0.2160
predicted_RBI	0.9700
predicted_SLG	0.4153
predicted_SO	0.9120

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2220	0.2050	0.2109	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8150	3.9630	3.9112	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2350	0.2349	0.2349	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2590	0.1230	0.1706	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8400	0.9310	0.8992	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0310	0.0310	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1700	0.1630	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2630	0.2625	0.2627	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4440	0.2160	0.2958	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.8800	0.9700	0.9385	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4150	0.4153	0.4152	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7410	0.9120	0.8521	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.262

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260505_BOS@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	693307
playerID	693307
playerName	Dillon Dingler
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	DET
teamID	10

Colt Keith (690993) · BATTER · 3B · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 25

All-history rows before 20260506: 25

System season_avg: 0.2920

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2921

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.280	0.000	-0.280	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.560	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.560	2.000	0.440	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.302	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.292	0.500	-0.292	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.160	0.000	-0.160	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.040	1.000	-1.040	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.362	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.330	0.667	-0.330	-0.667
predicted_R	0.520	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.520	2.000	-0.520	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.160	0.000	-0.160	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.040	0.000	-0.040	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.318	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.371	0.500	-0.371	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.840	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.840	0.000	1.160	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.280	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.560	-
predicted_AVG	0.302	-
predicted_BB	0.160	-
predicted_H	1.040	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.362	-
predicted_R	0.520	-
predicted_RBI	0.030	-
predicted_SLG	0.318	-
predicted_SO	0.840	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.133	-0.148
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.454	-0.106
predicted_AVG	0.302	0.000
predicted_BB	0.181	0.021
predicted_H	1.031	-0.009
predicted_HBP	0.134	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.362	0.000
predicted_R	0.515	-0.005
predicted_RBI	0.031	0.001
predicted_SLG	0.318	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.714	-0.126

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.56), rates preserved: AVG=0.290 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 25

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	0.3529	0.4211	0.3529	0.3529	0.0000	0.0588	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	8.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	2.000	6.000	0.2424	0.3056	0.2424	0.2424	0.0000	0.0606	0.1818
season	0.20	25	-	89.000	26.000	7.000	4.000	13.000	4.000	21.000	0.2921	0.3298	0.3708	0.2921	0.0449	0.0449	0.2360

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0530
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.3970
predicted_AVG	0.3021
predicted_BB	0.1930
predicted_H	1.0260
predicted_HBP	0.1340
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.3624
predicted_R	0.5130
predicted_RBI	0.0310
predicted_SLG	0.3178
predicted_SO	0.6460

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2800	0.0530	0.1325	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5600	3.3970	3.4541	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3020	0.3021	0.3021	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1600	0.1930	0.1815	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0400	1.0260	1.0309	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1340	0.1340	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3620	0.3624	0.3623	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5200	0.5130	0.5154	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0300	0.0310	0.0307	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3180	0.3178	0.3179	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8400	0.6460	0.7139	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	25
Season rows before report date	25
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	25
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.292

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260504_BOS@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	690993
playerID	690993
playerName	Colt Keith
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	DET
teamID	10

Kevin McGonigle (805808) · BATTER · SS · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 34

All-history rows before 20260506: 34

System season_avg: 0.3110

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3106

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.324	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.324	0.000	0.676	1.000
predicted_3B	0.059	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_AB	3.920	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.882	3.000	-0.882	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.232	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.311	0.000	0.023	0.333
predicted_BB	0.588	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.588	1.000	0.412	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.910	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.206	0.000	-0.206	1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.355	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.405	0.250	0.095	0.250
predicted_R	0.735	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.735	1.000	0.265	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.550	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.471	0.000	0.529	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.118	1.000	-0.118	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.300	0.667	0.667	Hitting_SLG	0.470	0.000	0.197	0.667
predicted_SO	0.588	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.588	1.000	-0.588	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.324	-
predicted_3B	0.059	-
predicted_AB	3.920	-
predicted_AVG	0.232	-
predicted_BB	0.588	-
predicted_H	0.910	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.355	-
predicted_R	0.735	-
predicted_RBI	0.550	-
predicted_SLG	0.300	-
predicted_SO	0.588	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.178	-0.146
predicted_3B	0.028	-0.031
predicted_AB	3.875	-0.045
predicted_AVG	0.232	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.654	0.066
predicted_H	0.899	-0.011
predicted_HBP	0.040	-
predicted_HR	0.047	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.355	-0.000
predicted_R	0.665	-0.070
predicted_RBI	0.543	-0.007
predicted_SLG	0.300	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.595	0.007

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.92), rates preserved: AVG=0.229 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.920

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	3.000	0.1579	0.3043	0.1579	0.1579	0.0000	0.1579	0.2105	0.1579
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	11.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	6.000	6.000	6.000	0.2821	0.3913	0.3846	0.2821	0.0256	0.1282	0.1538	0.1538
season	0.20	34	-	132.000	41.000	11.000	2.000	2.000	16.000	25.000	20.000	20.000	0.3106	0.4052	0.4697	0.3106	0.0152	0.1212	0.1515	0.1515

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0990
predicted_3B	0.0120
predicted_AB	3.8510
predicted_AVG	0.2319
predicted_BB	0.6890
predicted_H	0.8930
predicted_HBP	0.0400
predicted_HR	0.0460
predicted_OBP	0.3549
predicted_R	0.6270
predicted_RBI	0.5400
predicted_SLG	0.2996
predicted_SO	0.5980

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3240	0.0990	0.1778	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0590	0.0120	0.0284	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9200	3.8510	3.8752	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2320	0.2319	0.2319	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5880	0.6890	0.6536	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9100	0.8930	0.8990	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0400	0.0400	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0460	0.0474	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3550	0.3549	0.3549	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7350	0.6270	0.6648	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5500	0.5400	0.5435	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3000	0.2996	0.2997	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5880	0.5980	0.5945	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.311

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260505_BOS@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	805808
playerID	805808
playerName	Kevin McGonigle
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	DET
teamID	10

Riley Greene (682985) · BATTER · LF · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 36

All-history rows before 20260506: 36

System season_avg: 0.2920

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2923

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.611	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.611	3.000	0.389	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.306	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.292	0.333	-0.292	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.611	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.611	1.000	-0.611	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_H	1.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.056	1.000	-1.056	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.392	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.395	0.500	-0.395	-0.500
predicted_R	0.667	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.528	0.000	-0.528	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.402	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.454	0.333	-0.454	-0.333
predicted_SO	1.167	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.167	1.000	-0.167	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.611	-
predicted_AVG	0.306	-
predicted_BB	0.611	-
predicted_H	1.060	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.392	-
predicted_R	0.667	-
predicted_RBI	0.250	-
predicted_SLG	0.402	-
predicted_SO	1.167	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.201	-0.049
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.605	-0.006
predicted_AVG	0.306	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.547	-0.064
predicted_H	1.087	0.027
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.055	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.392	0.000
predicted_R	0.632	-0.035
predicted_RBI	0.260	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.402	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.333	0.166

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.61), rates preserved: AVG=0.301 HR/AB=0.015

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, BvP AVG=0.222)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	7.000	0.3333	0.4000	0.3889	0.3333	0.0000	0.0556	0.1111	0.3889
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	10.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	6.000	16.000	0.2778	0.3810	0.3889	0.2778	0.0278	0.0556	0.1667	0.4444
season	0.20	36	-	130.000	38.000	9.000	4.000	19.000	24.000	22.000	42.000	0.2923	0.3947	0.4538	0.2923	0.0308	0.1462	0.1692	0.3231

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1750
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.6020
predicted_AVG	0.3057
predicted_BB	0.5120
predicted_H	1.1010
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0570
predicted_OBP	0.3923
predicted_R	0.6130
predicted_RBI	0.2650
predicted_SLG	0.4019
predicted_SO	1.4230

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.1750	0.2012	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6110	3.6020	3.6052	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3060	0.3057	0.3058	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6110	0.5120	0.5467	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0600	1.1010	1.0867	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0570	0.0546	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3920	0.3923	0.3922	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6670	0.6130	0.6319	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2500	0.2650	0.2598	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4020	0.4019	0.4019	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1670	1.4230	1.3334	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.292

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260505_BOS@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	682985
playerID	682985
playerName	Riley Greene
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	DET
teamID	10

Matt Vierling (663837) · BATTER · CF · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 20

All-history rows before 20260506: 20

System season_avg: 0.2290

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2286

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.350	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.350	0.000	0.650	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.500	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	4.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.254	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.229	0.500	0.021	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.300	0.000	-0.300	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.860	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.800	2.000	0.200	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.050	1.000	-0.050	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.311	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.286	0.500	-0.036	-0.250
predicted_R	0.400	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.400	1.000	0.600	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.910	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.600	1.000	-0.600	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.460	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.371	1.250	0.129	-0.750
predicted_SO	0.650	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.650	0.000	0.350	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.350	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.254	-
predicted_BB	0.300	-
predicted_H	0.860	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.311	-
predicted_R	0.400	-
predicted_RBI	0.910	-
predicted_SLG	0.460	-
predicted_SO	0.650	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.376	0.026
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.715	0.215
predicted_AVG	0.254	0.000
predicted_BB	0.318	0.018
predicted_H	0.934	0.074
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.128	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.311	-0.000
predicted_R	0.512	0.112
predicted_RBI	0.992	0.082
predicted_SLG	0.460	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.658	0.008

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.251 HR/AB=0.034

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	6.000	4.000	1.000	4.000	0.3000	0.3333	0.5500	0.3000	0.0500	0.3000	0.0500	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	8.000	4.000	1.000	11.000	4.000	5.000	5.000	0.2105	0.2955	0.3947	0.2105	0.0263	0.2895	0.1316	0.1316
season	0.20	20	-	70.000	16.000	7.000	1.000	12.000	8.000	6.000	13.000	0.2286	0.2857	0.3714	0.2286	0.0143	0.1714	0.0857	0.1857

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3900
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.8300
predicted_AVG	0.2544
predicted_BB	0.3280
predicted_H	0.9740
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1320
predicted_OBP	0.3106
predicted_R	0.5730
predicted_RBI	1.0360
predicted_SLG	0.4599
predicted_SO	0.6630

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3500	0.3900	0.3760	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5000	3.8300	3.7145	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2540	0.2544	0.2543	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3000	0.3280	0.3182	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8600	0.9740	0.9341	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1320	0.1278	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3110	0.3106	0.3107	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4000	0.5730	0.5124	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.9100	1.0360	0.9919	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4600	0.4599	0.4599	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6500	0.6630	0.6584	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.229

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260505_BOS@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	663837
playerID	663837
playerName	Matt Vierling
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	DET
teamID	10

Spencer Torkelson (679529) · BATTER · 1B · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 34

All-history rows before 20260506: 34

System season_avg: 0.2160

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2155

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.176	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.176	0.000	-0.176	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.412	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.412	3.000	-0.412	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.172	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.216	0.000	0.118	0.333
predicted_BB	0.618	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.618	1.000	0.382	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_H	0.490	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.735	0.000	0.265	1.000
predicted_HR	0.180	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.176	0.000	0.824	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.288	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.336	0.250	0.164	0.250
predicted_R	0.382	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.382	0.000	0.618	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.320	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	0.412	0.000	1.588	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.397	1.333	1.333	Hitting_SLG	0.422	0.000	0.911	1.333
predicted_SO	1.235	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.235	2.000	-1.235	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.176	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.412	-
predicted_AVG	0.172	-
predicted_BB	0.618	-
predicted_H	0.490	-
predicted_HR	0.180	-
predicted_OBP	0.288	-
predicted_R	0.382	-
predicted_RBI	0.320	-
predicted_SLG	0.397	-
predicted_SO	1.235	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.129	-0.047
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.474	0.062
predicted_AVG	0.172	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.588	-0.030
predicted_H	0.563	0.073
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.212	0.032
predicted_OBP	0.288	0.000
predicted_R	0.392	0.010
predicted_RBI	0.374	0.054
predicted_SLG	0.397	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.464	0.229

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.47), rates preserved: AVG=0.162 HR/AB=0.061

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, BvP AVG=0.100)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	9.000	0.1176	0.2500	0.2941	0.1177	0.0588	0.1177	0.1765	0.5294
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	8.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	4.000	5.000	15.000	0.2162	0.3095	0.5135	0.2162	0.0811	0.1081	0.1351	0.4054
season	0.20	34	-	116.000	25.000	6.000	6.000	14.000	13.000	21.000	42.000	0.2155	0.3358	0.4224	0.2155	0.0517	0.1207	0.1810	0.3621

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1030
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.5070
predicted_AVG	0.1717
predicted_BB	0.5710
predicted_H	0.6020
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.2290
predicted_OBP	0.2880
predicted_R	0.3970
predicted_RBI	0.4030
predicted_SLG	0.3965
predicted_SO	1.5870

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1760	0.1030	0.1285	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4120	3.5070	3.4737	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1720	0.1717	0.1718	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6180	0.5710	0.5875	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4900	0.6020	0.5628	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1800	0.2290	0.2119	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2880	0.2880	0.2880	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3820	0.3970	0.3917	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3200	0.4030	0.3740	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3970	0.3965	0.3967	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2350	1.5870	1.4638	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.216

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260505_BOS@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	679529
playerID	679529
playerName	Spencer Torkelson
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	DET
teamID	10

Zach McKinstry (656716) · BATTER · 2B · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 14

All-history rows before 20260506: 14

System season_avg: 0.1910

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1915

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	0.000	0.857	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.357	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.357	4.000	0.643	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.188	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.191	0.000	0.059	0.250
predicted_BB	0.214	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.214	0.000	-0.214	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.530	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.643	0.000	0.357	1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.220	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.240	0.000	0.010	0.250
predicted_R	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.357	0.000	-0.357	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.285	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.298	0.000	0.202	0.500
predicted_SO	0.857	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.857	2.000	0.143	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.357	-
predicted_AVG	0.188	-
predicted_BB	0.214	-
predicted_H	0.530	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.220	-
predicted_R	0.143	-
predicted_RBI	0.200	-
predicted_SLG	0.285	-
predicted_SO	0.857	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.172	0.029
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.402	0.045
predicted_AVG	0.188	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.170	-0.044
predicted_H	0.604	0.074
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.046	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.220	-0.000
predicted_R	0.172	0.029
predicted_RBI	0.229	0.029
predicted_SLG	0.285	0.000
predicted_SO	0.850	-0.007

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.40), rates preserved: AVG=0.177 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, BvP AVG=0.286)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	0.1765	0.1765	0.2353	0.1765	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.2353
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	3.000	9.000	0.2000	0.2632	0.3429	0.2000	0.0286	0.1429	0.0857	0.2571
season	0.20	14	-	47.000	9.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	3.000	12.000	0.1915	0.2400	0.2979	0.1915	0.0213	0.1064	0.0638	0.2553

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1880
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.4260
predicted_AVG	0.1877
predicted_BB	0.1470
predicted_H	0.6430
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0490
predicted_OBP	0.2195
predicted_R	0.1880
predicted_RBI	0.2440
predicted_SLG	0.2855
predicted_SO	0.8460

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.1880	0.1722	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3570	3.4260	3.4019	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1880	0.1877	0.1878	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2140	0.1470	0.1704	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5300	0.6430	0.6035	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0490	0.0459	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2200	0.2195	0.2197	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1430	0.1880	0.1722	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2000	0.2440	0.2286	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2850	0.2855	0.2853	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8570	0.8460	0.8498	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.191

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260505_BOS@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	656716
playerID	656716
playerName	Zach McKinstry
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	DET
teamID	10

Jace Jung (690291) · BATTER · DH · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 2

All-history rows before 20260506: 2

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.500	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.000	3.000	1.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.333	-0.250	-0.333
predicted_BB	1.250	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.410	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.500	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.500	0.500	-0.250	-0.250
predicted_R	0.625	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.250	0.333	-0.250	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.625	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.500	1.000	1.500	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.250	-
predicted_BB	1.250	-
predicted_H	0.410	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.500	-
predicted_R	0.625	-
predicted_RBI	0.000	-
predicted_SLG	0.250	-
predicted_SO	0.625	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.175	-0.325
predicted_AVG	0.250	0.000
predicted_BB	1.087	-0.163
predicted_H	0.469	0.059
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.500	0.000
predicted_R	0.544	-0.081
predicted_RBI	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.250	0.000
predicted_SO	0.544	-0.081

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.187 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	2	-	4.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	0.2500	0.5000	0.2500	0.2500	0.5000	0.2500
last_10	0.35	2	-	4.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	0.2500	0.5000	0.2500	0.2500	0.5000	0.2500
season	0.20	2	-	4.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	0.2500	0.5000	0.2500	0.2500	0.5000	0.2500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.0000
predicted_AVG	0.2500
predicted_BB	1.0000
predicted_H	0.5000
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.5000
predicted_R	0.5000
predicted_RBI	0.0000
predicted_SLG	0.2500
predicted_SO	0.5000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.5000	2.0000	2.1750	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2500	0.2500	0.2500	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	1.2500	1.0000	1.0875	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4100	0.5000	0.4685	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.5000	0.5000	0.5000	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6250	0.5000	0.5437	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2500	0.2500	0.2500	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6250	0.5000	0.5437	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260502_TEX@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	690291
playerID	690291
playerName	Jace Jung
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	DET
teamID	10

Kerry Carpenter (681481) · BATTER · RF · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 25

All-history rows before 20260506: 25

System season_avg: 0.2170

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2169

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.080	0.000	-0.080	0.000
predicted_3B	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.080	0.000	-0.080	0.000
predicted_AB	3.320	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.320	4.000	-0.320	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.218	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.217	0.250	-0.217	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.360	0.000	-0.360	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.630	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.720	1.000	-0.720	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.275	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.305	0.250	-0.055	0.000
predicted_R	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.360	1.000	-0.360	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.560	0.000	-0.560	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.498	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.470	0.250	-0.470	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.320	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.320	2.000	0.680	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.080	-
predicted_3B	0.080	-
predicted_AB	3.320	-
predicted_AVG	0.218	-
predicted_BB	0.360	-
predicted_H	0.630	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.275	-
predicted_R	0.360	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.498	-
predicted_SO	1.320	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.117	0.037
predicted_3B	0.195	0.115
predicted_AB	3.514	0.194
predicted_AVG	0.218	0.000
predicted_BB	0.280	-0.080
predicted_H	0.734	0.104
predicted_HBP	0.056	-
predicted_HR	0.113	0.013
predicted_OBP	0.275	0.000
predicted_R	0.461	0.101
predicted_RBI	0.443	0.063
predicted_SLG	0.498	0.000
predicted_SO	1.319	-0.001

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.51), rates preserved: AVG=0.209 HR/AB=0.032

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, BvP AVG=0.111)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	2.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 25

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	7.000	0.2000	0.2381	0.4500	0.2000	0.0000	0.1000	0.0500	0.3500
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	8.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	5.000	2.000	12.000	0.2424	0.3056	0.5758	0.2424	0.0606	0.1515	0.0606	0.3636
season	0.20	25	-	83.000	18.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	14.000	9.000	9.000	33.000	0.2169	0.3053	0.4699	0.2169	0.0602	0.1687	0.1084	0.3976

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1370
predicted_3B	0.2570
predicted_AB	3.6190
predicted_AVG	0.2182
predicted_BB	0.2370
predicted_H	0.7900
predicted_HBP	0.0560
predicted_HR	0.1200
predicted_OBP	0.2752
predicted_R	0.5150
predicted_RBI	0.4770
predicted_SLG	0.4980
predicted_SO	1.3180

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0800	0.1370	0.1171	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0800	0.2570	0.1951	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3200	3.6190	3.5144	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2180	0.2182	0.2181	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3600	0.2370	0.2801	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6300	0.7900	0.7340	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0560	0.0560	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1200	0.1130	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2750	0.2752	0.2751	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3600	0.5150	0.4608	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.4770	0.4430	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4980	0.4980	0.4980	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3200	1.3180	1.3187	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	25
Season rows before report date	25
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	25
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.217

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260503_TEX@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	681481
playerID	681481
playerName	Kerry Carpenter
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	DET
teamID	10

Jack Flaherty (656427) · PITCHER · Starter · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 7

All-history rows before 20260506: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	4.000	4.000	-	Pitching_ER	2.714	4.000	1.286	0.000
predicted_IP	5.000	5.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	3.943	3.200	1.057	1.800
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	-	Pitching_SO	4.571	4.000	-0.571	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 5.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	20.667	12.000	20.000	17.000	24.000	5.000	5.2258	1.7903	0.5806	0.9677	0.8226	1.1613	0.2419
last_10	0.35	7	29.000	19.000	27.000	25.000	32.000	5.000	5.8966	1.7931	0.6552	0.9310	0.8621	1.1035	0.1724
season	0.20	7	29.000	19.000	27.000	25.000	32.000	5.000	5.8966	1.7931	0.6552	0.9310	0.8621	1.1035	0.1724

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	3.4940
predicted_ER	2.5730
predicted_ERA	5.5947
predicted_H	3.9220
predicted_HR	0.8430
predicted_IP	4.1390
predicted_SO	4.6740
predicted_WHIP	1.7918

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	3.4940	2.6211	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	4.0000	2.5730	3.0724	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.5947	5.5947	form_only
predicted_H	10.0000	3.9220	6.0493	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.8430	0.5480	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.0000	4.1390	4.4404	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	4.0000	4.6740	4.4381	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.7918	1.7918	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.0
H	10
R	4
ER	4
BB	1
SO	4
HR	0
BF	26
Pitches	93

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	19
Pitching_ER	4
Pitching_ERA	5.90
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	5
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	3.2
Pitching_Pitches	91
Pitching_R	4
Pitching_SO	4
Pitching_Strikes	55
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260501_TEX@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	656427
playerID	656427
playerName	Jack Flaherty
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	DET
teamID	10

Burch Smith (572143) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 6

All-history rows before 20260506: 6

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.683	2.000	-0.683	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	2.500	4.000	-2.500	-4.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	9.000	2.000	8.000	2.000	14.000	2.0000	1.1111	0.2222	0.8889	0.2222	1.5556
last_10	0.35	6	10.333	2.000	9.000	3.000	15.000	1.7419	1.1613	0.1935	0.8710	0.2903	1.4516
season	0.20	6	10.333	2.000	9.000	3.000	15.000	1.7419	1.1613	0.1935	0.8710	0.2903	1.4516

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4560
predicted_ER	0.3630
predicted_ERA	1.8580
predicted_H	1.5450
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.7570
predicted_SO	2.6330
predicted_WHIP	1.1387

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4560	0.2964	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3630	0.2359	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.8580	1.8580	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.5450	1.3542	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.7570	1.4920	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	2.6330	1.7115	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1387	1.1387	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.74
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	20
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	4
Pitching_Strikes	18
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_BOS@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	572143
playerID	572143
playerName	Burch Smith
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	DET
teamID	10

Kenley Jansen (445276) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 11

All-history rows before 20260506: 11

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.455	0.000	-0.455
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.673	1.000	0.327
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.909	1.000	0.091

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 10

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.667	2.000	5.000	3.000	4.000	1.000	3.8571	1.7143	0.4286	1.0714	0.6429	0.8571	0.2143
last_10	0.35	10	8.333	3.000	7.000	4.000	10.000	2.000	3.2400	1.3200	0.3600	0.8400	0.4800	1.2000	0.2400
season	0.20	10	8.333	3.000	7.000	4.000	10.000	2.000	3.2400	1.3200	0.3600	0.8400	0.4800	1.2000	0.2400

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4860
predicted_ER	0.3430
predicted_ERA	3.5177
predicted_H	0.8290
predicted_HR	0.2010
predicted_IP	0.8780
predicted_SO	0.9180
predicted_WHIP	1.4974

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4860	0.3159	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3430	0.2230	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.5177	3.5177	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8290	0.5388	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2010	0.1307	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.8780	0.9207	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9180	0.9467	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4974	1.4974	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	10
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	12

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.40
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	10
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	5
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_BOS@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	445276
playerID	445276
playerName	Kenley Jansen
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	DET
teamID	10

Kyle Finnegan (640448) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 16

All-history rows before 20260506: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.969	1.000	0.031	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.812	1.000	1.188	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.667	1.000	5.000	2.000	8.000	1.000	1.5882	1.2353	0.1765	0.8823	0.3529	1.4118	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	11.333	1.000	9.000	3.000	10.000	1.000	0.7941	1.0588	0.0882	0.7941	0.2647	0.8823	0.0882
season	0.20	16	16.667	1.000	10.000	10.000	13.000	1.000	0.5400	1.2000	0.0600	0.6000	0.6000	0.7800	0.0600

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4140
predicted_ER	0.1360
predicted_ERA	1.1006
predicted_H	0.8860
predicted_HR	0.1360
predicted_IP	1.1150
predicted_SO	1.2270
predicted_WHIP	1.1665

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4140	0.2691	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1360	0.0884	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.1006	1.1006	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8860	0.5759	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1360	0.0884	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.1150	1.0747	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.2270	1.4975	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1665	1.1665	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.54
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	10
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_TEX@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	640448
playerID	640448
playerName	Kyle Finnegan
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	DET
teamID	10

Tyler Holton (663947) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 15

All-history rows before 20260506: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.533	0.000	0.467	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.807	1.000	0.193	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.733	1.000	0.267	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.667	4.000	11.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	7.7143	2.7857	0.8571	2.3571	0.4286	0.6429	0.2143
last_10	0.35	10	9.667	8.000	19.000	5.000	8.000	2.000	7.4483	2.4828	0.8276	1.9655	0.5172	0.8276	0.2069
season	0.20	15	14.667	8.000	20.000	8.000	11.000	2.000	4.9091	1.9091	0.5454	1.3636	0.5454	0.7500	0.1364

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4610
predicted_ER	0.7480
predicted_ERA	7.0602
predicted_H	1.9280
predicted_HR	0.1870
predicted_IP	0.9540
predicted_SO	0.6950
predicted_WHIP	2.5044

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4610	0.2997	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.7480	0.8362	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	7.0602	7.0602	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.9280	1.6032	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1870	0.1216	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.9540	0.9701	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.6950	0.8017	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	2.5044	2.5044	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.91
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	22
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	16
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_BOS@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	663947
playerID	663947
playerName	Tyler Holton
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	DET
teamID	10

20260506_CHW@LAA

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 2, "confidence": 0.58, "home_win_probability": 0.42000000000000004, "away_win_probability": 0.58, "predicted_score_text": "CHW 6 - 2 LAA", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to final winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "predicted_score_text": "CHW 5 - 4 LAA", "confidence": 0.58, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score", "final_prediction_synced": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "CHW 5 - 4 LAA", "winner": "CHW"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 2, "score_text": "CHW 6 - 2 LAA", "winner": "CHW"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 1, "home_run_delta": -2, "total_run_delta": -1, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"}}

Away Team: CHW

Drew Romo (691011) · BATTER · C · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 0

All-history rows before 20260506: 0

System season_avg: 0.0000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): -

Diff (system - data): -

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	-	-	-	-
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	-	-	-	-
predicted_AB	0.000	2.000	2.000	Hitting_AB	-	-	-	-
predicted_AVG	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	-	-	-	-
predicted_BB	0.000	2.000	2.000	Hitting_BB	-	-	-	-
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	-	-	-	-
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	-	-	-	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	-	-	-	-
predicted_OBP	0.000	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	-	-	-	-
predicted_R	0.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	-	-	-	-
predicted_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	-	-	-	-
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	-	-	-	-
predicted_SLG	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	-	-	-	-
predicted_SO	0.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	-	-	-	-

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw XGBoost model output

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	0.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.000	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.000	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.000	-
predicted_SLG	0.000	-
predicted_SO	0.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.475	2.475
predicted_AVG	0.000	0.000
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.000	0.000
predicted_R	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.000	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.47), rates preserved: AVG=0.000 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-1.000
BB	2.000	2.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 0

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Total PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
last_10	0.35	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
season	0.20	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.8070
predicted_BB	0.0000
predicted_H	0.0000
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_R	0.0000
predicted_RBI	0.0000
predicted_SO	0.0000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	0.0000	3.8070	2.4746	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.0000	-	0.0000	model_only
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.0000	-	0.0000	model_only
predicted_R	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.0000	-	0.0000	model_only
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	0
Season rows before report date	0
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	0
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.0

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

No historical data found for this player before report date.

Munetaka Murakami (808959) · BATTER · 1B · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 34

All-history rows before 20260506: 34

System season_avg: 0.2420

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2419

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.029	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.029	1.000	-0.029	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.647	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.647	4.000	0.353	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.228	0.750	0.750	Hitting_AVG	0.242	0.750	0.508	0.000
predicted_BB	0.824	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.824	1.000	0.176	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_H	0.790	3.000	3.000	Hitting_H	0.882	3.000	2.118	0.000
predicted_HR	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.412	1.000	-0.412	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.388	0.800	0.800	Hitting_OBP	0.379	0.800	0.421	0.000
predicted_R	0.765	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.765	3.000	0.235	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.910	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.824	2.000	0.176	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.602	0.750	0.750	Hitting_SLG	0.589	1.750	0.161	-1.000
predicted_SO	1.441	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.441	0.000	-0.441	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.029	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.647	-
predicted_AVG	0.228	-
predicted_BB	0.824	-
predicted_H	0.790	-
predicted_HR	0.390	-
predicted_OBP	0.388	-
predicted_R	0.765	-
predicted_RBI	0.910	-
predicted_SLG	0.602	-
predicted_SO	1.441	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.097	0.068
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.609	-0.038
predicted_AVG	0.228	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.915	0.091
predicted_H	0.808	0.018
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.398	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.388	0.000
predicted_R	0.763	-0.002
predicted_RBI	0.926	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.602	0.000
predicted_SO	1.320	-0.121

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.65), rates preserved: AVG=0.222 HR/AB=0.109

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	4.000	6.000	5.000	0.2353	0.4348	0.6471	0.2353	0.1177	0.2941	0.3529	0.2941
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	8.000	1.000	4.000	9.000	7.000	7.000	15.000	0.2105	0.3333	0.5526	0.2105	0.1053	0.2368	0.1842	0.3947
season	0.20	34	-	124.000	30.000	1.000	14.000	28.000	26.000	28.000	49.000	0.2419	0.3791	0.5887	0.2419	0.1129	0.2258	0.2258	0.3952

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1340
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.5890
predicted_AVG	0.2279
predicted_BB	0.9640
predicted_H	0.8180
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.4030
predicted_OBP	0.3881
predicted_R	0.7620
predicted_RBI	0.9350
predicted_SLG	0.6023
predicted_SO	1.2550

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0290	0.1340	0.0973	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6470	3.5890	3.6093	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2280	0.2279	0.2279	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.8240	0.9640	0.9150	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7900	0.8180	0.8082	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3900	0.4030	0.3984	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3880	0.3881	0.3881	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7650	0.7620	0.7631	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.9100	0.9350	0.9263	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6020	0.6023	0.6022	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4410	1.2550	1.3201	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	3
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.242

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.75
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	3
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	7
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260504_CHW@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	808959
playerID	808959
playerName	Munetaka Murakami
pos	IF
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	CHW
teamID	6

Colson Montgomery (695657) · BATTER · SS · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 34

All-history rows before 20260506: 34

System season_avg: 0.2240

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2240

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.176	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.176	1.000	-0.176	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.676	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.676	4.000	0.324	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.192	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.224	0.250	-0.224	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.412	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.412	1.000	-0.412	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_H	0.680	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.824	1.000	-0.824	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.210	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.265	0.000	-0.265	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.336	0.400	-0.336	-0.400
predicted_R	0.441	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.441	0.000	-0.441	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.450	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.676	0.000	-0.676	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.419	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.488	0.500	-0.488	-0.500
predicted_SO	1.206	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.206	1.000	0.794	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.176	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.676	-
predicted_AVG	0.192	-
predicted_BB	0.412	-
predicted_H	0.680	-
predicted_HR	0.210	-
predicted_OBP	0.350	-
predicted_R	0.441	-
predicted_RBI	0.450	-
predicted_SLG	0.419	-
predicted_SO	1.206	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.166	-0.010
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.578	-0.098
predicted_AVG	0.192	0.000
predicted_BB	0.610	0.198
predicted_H	0.679	-0.001
predicted_HBP	0.142	-
predicted_HR	0.212	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.350	0.000
predicted_R	0.442	0.001
predicted_RBI	0.452	0.002
predicted_SLG	0.419	0.000
predicted_SO	1.038	-0.168

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.68), rates preserved: AVG=0.185 HR/AB=0.058

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	4.000	0.1765	0.3636	0.4118	0.1765	0.0588	0.1177	0.2941	0.2353
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	7.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	5.000	5.000	10.000	0.1944	0.3409	0.3889	0.1944	0.0556	0.1111	0.1389	0.2778
season	0.20	34	-	125.000	28.000	6.000	9.000	23.000	15.000	14.000	41.000	0.2240	0.3356	0.4880	0.2240	0.0720	0.1840	0.1120	0.3280

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1610
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.5250
predicted_AVG	0.1923
predicted_BB	0.7170
predicted_H	0.6780
predicted_HBP	0.1420
predicted_HR	0.2130
predicted_OBP	0.3501
predicted_R	0.4430
predicted_RBI	0.4530
predicted_SLG	0.4190
predicted_SO	0.9470

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1760	0.1610	0.1663	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6760	3.5250	3.5779	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1920	0.1923	0.1922	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4120	0.7170	0.6102	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6800	0.6780	0.6787	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1420	0.1420	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2100	0.2130	0.2119	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3500	0.3501	0.3501	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4410	0.4430	0.4423	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4500	0.4530	0.4520	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4190	0.4190	0.4190	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2060	0.9470	1.0376	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.224

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B-SS
gameID	20260505_CHW@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	695657
playerID	695657
playerName	Colson Montgomery
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	CHW
teamID	6

Sam Antonacci (803011) · BATTER · LF · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 16

All-history rows before 20260506: 16

System season_avg: 0.2550

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2545

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_3B	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_AB	3.480	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.438	3.000	0.562	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.350	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.255	0.333	-0.005	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.375	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.375	0.000	0.625	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_H	1.220	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.875	1.000	0.125	0.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.450	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.373	0.500	0.027	-0.100
predicted_R	0.562	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.562	0.000	0.438	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.330	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.438	0.000	0.562	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.062	1.000	-0.062	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.453	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.418	0.333	-0.168	-0.083
predicted_SO	0.437	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.438	0.000	-0.438	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-
predicted_3B	0.125	-
predicted_AB	3.480	-
predicted_AVG	0.350	-
predicted_BB	0.375	-
predicted_H	1.220	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.450	-
predicted_R	0.562	-
predicted_RBI	0.330	-
predicted_SLG	0.453	-
predicted_SO	0.437	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.165	0.040
predicted_3B	0.085	-0.040
predicted_AB	3.423	-0.057
predicted_AVG	0.350	0.000
predicted_BB	0.389	0.014
predicted_H	1.199	-0.021
predicted_HBP	0.261	-
predicted_HR	0.011	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.450	0.000
predicted_R	0.663	0.101
predicted_RBI	0.326	-0.004
predicted_SLG	0.453	0.000
predicted_SO	0.554	0.117

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.48), rates preserved: AVG=0.345 HR/AB=0.003

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	4.000	0.3889	0.4762	0.4444	0.3889	0.0000	0.0556	0.1111	0.2222
last_10	0.35	10	-	31.000	11.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	7.000	4.000	5.000	0.3548	0.4615	0.4839	0.3548	0.0000	0.1290	0.1290	0.1613
season	0.20	16	-	55.000	14.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	7.000	9.000	6.000	7.000	0.2545	0.3731	0.4182	0.2545	0.0182	0.1273	0.1091	0.1273

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1860
predicted_3B	0.0630
predicted_AB	3.3930
predicted_AVG	0.3501
predicted_BB	0.3970
predicted_H	1.1880
predicted_HBP	0.2610
predicted_HR	0.0120
predicted_OBP	0.4504
predicted_R	0.7180
predicted_RBI	0.3240
predicted_SLG	0.4530
predicted_SO	0.6170

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1250	0.1860	0.1647	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.1250	0.0630	0.0847	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4800	3.3930	3.4234	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3500	0.3501	0.3501	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3750	0.3970	0.3893	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2200	1.1880	1.1992	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.2610	0.2610	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0120	0.0113	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4500	0.4504	0.4503	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5620	0.7180	0.6634	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3300	0.3240	0.3261	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4530	0.4530	0.4530	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4370	0.6170	0.5540	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.255

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260505_CHW@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	803011
playerID	803011
playerName	Sam Antonacci
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	CHW
teamID	6

Tristan Peters (671976) · BATTER · CF · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 23

All-history rows before 20260506: 23

System season_avg: 0.2610

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2609

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.043	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	3.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.269	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.261	0.000	-0.261	0.000
predicted_BB	0.261	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.261	0.000	-0.261	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.670	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.783	0.000	-0.783	0.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.341	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.320	0.000	-0.070	0.250
predicted_R	0.261	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.261	0.000	-0.261	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.174	0.000	-0.174	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.130	0.000	-0.130	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.272	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.275	0.000	-0.275	0.000
predicted_SO	0.739	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.739	1.000	0.261	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.043	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.269	-
predicted_BB	0.261	-
predicted_H	0.670	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.341	-
predicted_R	0.261	-
predicted_RBI	0.290	-
predicted_SLG	0.272	-
predicted_SO	0.739	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.020	-0.023
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.906	-0.094
predicted_AVG	0.269	0.000
predicted_BB	0.294	0.033
predicted_H	0.734	0.064
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.341	0.000
predicted_R	0.336	0.075
predicted_RBI	0.314	0.024
predicted_SLG	0.272	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.647	-0.092

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.245 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 23

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	13.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	0.2308	0.3333	0.2308	0.2308	0.1538	0.1538	0.2308
last_10	0.35	10	-	31.000	10.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	2.000	5.000	0.3226	0.3636	0.3226	0.3226	0.0968	0.0645	0.1613
season	0.20	23	-	69.000	18.000	1.000	4.000	6.000	6.000	17.000	0.2609	0.3200	0.2754	0.2609	0.0580	0.0870	0.2464

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0080
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.8550
predicted_AVG	0.2690
predicted_BB	0.3120
predicted_H	0.7680
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.3412
predicted_R	0.3760
predicted_RBI	0.3270
predicted_SLG	0.2719
predicted_SO	0.5980

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0430	0.0080	0.0202	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	2.8550	2.9057	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2690	0.2690	0.2690	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2610	0.3120	0.2942	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6700	0.7680	0.7337	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3410	0.3412	0.3411	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2610	0.3760	0.3357	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2900	0.3270	0.3140	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2720	0.2719	0.2719	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7390	0.5980	0.6473	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	23
Season rows before report date	23
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	23
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.261

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260504_CHW@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	671976
playerID	671976
playerName	Tristan Peters
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	CHW
teamID	6

Chase Meidroth (805367) · BATTER · 2B · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 33

All-history rows before 20260506: 33

System season_avg: 0.2730

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2734

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.212	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.212	0.000	-0.212	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.879	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.879	5.000	-0.879	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.307	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.273	0.400	0.060	-0.067
predicted_BB	0.455	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.455	0.000	0.545	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.110	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.061	2.000	-0.061	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.061	1.000	-0.061	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.350	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.347	0.400	0.153	0.100
predicted_R	0.697	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.697	2.000	0.303	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.280	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.152	1.000	0.848	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.456	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.375	1.000	-0.042	-0.667
predicted_SO	1.061	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.061	2.000	0.939	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.212	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.879	-
predicted_AVG	0.307	-
predicted_BB	0.455	-
predicted_H	1.110	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.350	-
predicted_R	0.697	-
predicted_RBI	0.280	-
predicted_SLG	0.456	-
predicted_SO	1.061	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.206	-0.006
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.023	0.144
predicted_AVG	0.307	0.000
predicted_BB	0.347	-0.108
predicted_H	1.207	0.097
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.130	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.350	-0.000
predicted_R	0.785	0.088
predicted_RBI	0.301	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.456	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.372	0.311

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.02), rates preserved: AVG=0.300 HR/AB=0.032

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.879

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	1.000	9.000	0.3333	0.3636	0.5238	0.3333	0.0476	0.0952	0.0476	0.4286
last_10	0.35	10	-	41.000	12.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	7.000	3.000	15.000	0.2927	0.3333	0.4146	0.2927	0.0244	0.0732	0.0732	0.3659
season	0.20	33	-	128.000	35.000	7.000	2.000	5.000	23.000	15.000	35.000	0.2734	0.3472	0.3750	0.2734	0.0156	0.0391	0.1172	0.2734

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2030
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.1010
predicted_AVG	0.3071
predicted_BB	0.2890
predicted_H	1.2590
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1360
predicted_OBP	0.3497
predicted_R	0.8320
predicted_RBI	0.3130
predicted_SLG	0.4558
predicted_SO	1.5400

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2120	0.2030	0.2061	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8790	4.1010	4.0233	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3070	0.3071	0.3071	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4550	0.2890	0.3471	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1100	1.2590	1.2068	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1360	0.1304	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3500	0.3497	0.3498	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6970	0.8320	0.7847	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2800	0.3130	0.3014	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4560	0.4558	0.4559	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0610	1.5400	1.3723	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.273

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260505_CHW@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	805367
playerID	805367
playerName	Chase Meidroth
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	CHW
teamID	6

Miguel Vargas (678246) · BATTER · 3B · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 33

All-history rows before 20260506: 33

System season_avg: 0.2200

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2195

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.121	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.121	0.000	-0.121	0.000
predicted_3B	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_AB	3.727	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.727	3.000	1.273	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.246	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.220	0.000	-0.220	0.000
predicted_BB	0.758	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.758	2.000	-0.758	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.890	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.818	0.000	-0.818	0.000
predicted_HR	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.212	0.000	-0.212	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.366	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.358	0.400	-0.358	-0.400
predicted_R	0.727	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.727	1.000	0.273	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.590	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.545	0.000	-0.545	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.182	1.000	-0.182	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.420	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.439	0.000	-0.439	0.000
predicted_SO	0.727	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.727	0.000	1.273	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.121	-
predicted_3B	0.030	-
predicted_AB	3.727	-
predicted_AVG	0.246	-
predicted_BB	0.758	-
predicted_H	0.890	-
predicted_HR	0.190	-
predicted_OBP	0.366	-
predicted_R	0.727	-
predicted_RBI	0.590	-
predicted_SLG	0.420	-
predicted_SO	0.727	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.083	-0.038
predicted_3B	0.014	-0.016
predicted_AB	3.859	0.132
predicted_AVG	0.246	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.751	-0.007
predicted_H	0.939	0.049
predicted_HBP	0.013	-
predicted_HR	0.199	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.366	0.000
predicted_R	0.663	-0.064
predicted_RBI	0.621	0.031
predicted_SLG	0.420	0.000
predicted_SO	0.791	0.064

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.86), rates preserved: AVG=0.243 HR/AB=0.051

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	0.2381	0.3333	0.3810	0.2381	0.0476	0.1905	0.1429	0.1905
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	10.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	6.000	9.000	9.000	0.2703	0.4130	0.4595	0.2703	0.0541	0.1351	0.2432	0.2432
season	0.20	33	-	123.000	27.000	4.000	1.000	7.000	18.000	24.000	25.000	24.000	0.2195	0.3576	0.4390	0.2195	0.0569	0.1463	0.2032	0.1951

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0630
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.9300
predicted_AVG	0.2456
predicted_BB	0.7470
predicted_H	0.9650
predicted_HBP	0.0130
predicted_HR	0.2030
predicted_OBP	0.3661
predicted_R	0.6290
predicted_RBI	0.6380
predicted_SLG	0.4201
predicted_SO	0.8250

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1210	0.0630	0.0833	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0300	0.0060	0.0144	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7270	3.9300	3.8590	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2460	0.2456	0.2457	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7580	0.7470	0.7509	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8900	0.9650	0.9387	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0130	0.0130	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1900	0.2030	0.1985	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3660	0.3661	0.3661	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7270	0.6290	0.6633	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5900	0.6380	0.6212	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4200	0.4201	0.4201	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7270	0.8250	0.7907	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.22

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B-3B
gameID	20260505_CHW@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	678246
playerID	678246
playerName	Miguel Vargas
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	CHW
teamID	6

Andrew Benintendi (643217) · BATTER · DH · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 25

All-history rows before 20260506: 25

System season_avg: 0.2550

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2551

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.160	0.000	-0.160	0.000
predicted_3B	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.080	0.000	-0.080	0.000
predicted_AB	3.920	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.920	4.000	0.080	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.325	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.255	0.500	-0.005	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.160	0.000	-0.160	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.100	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	2.000	0.000	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.080	0.000	0.920	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.334	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.282	0.500	-0.032	-0.250
predicted_R	0.400	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.400	0.000	0.600	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.480	3.000	3.000	Hitting_RBI	0.520	0.000	2.480	3.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.387	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SLG	0.398	0.500	0.602	0.500
predicted_SO	1.360	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.360	1.000	-0.360	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.160	-
predicted_3B	0.080	-
predicted_AB	3.920	-
predicted_AVG	0.325	-
predicted_BB	0.160	-
predicted_H	1.100	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.334	-
predicted_R	0.400	-
predicted_RBI	0.480	-
predicted_SLG	0.387	-
predicted_SO	1.360	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.098	-0.062
predicted_3B	0.038	-0.042
predicted_AB	3.949	0.029
predicted_AVG	0.325	0.000
predicted_BB	0.098	-0.062
predicted_H	1.223	0.123
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.046	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.334	-0.000
predicted_R	0.361	-0.039
predicted_RBI	0.530	0.050
predicted_SLG	0.387	0.000
predicted_SO	1.239	-0.121

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.95), rates preserved: AVG=0.310 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	3.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 25

Reference playing time: 3.920

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	7.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	5.000	0.3684	0.3684	0.3684	0.3684	0.0000	0.1053	0.0000	0.2632
last_10	0.35	10	-	42.000	13.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	8.000	5.000	1.000	13.000	0.3095	0.3182	0.4048	0.3095	0.0238	0.1905	0.0238	0.3095
season	0.20	25	-	98.000	25.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	13.000	10.000	4.000	34.000	0.2551	0.2816	0.3980	0.2551	0.0204	0.1326	0.0408	0.3469

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0650
predicted_3B	0.0160
predicted_AB	3.9640
predicted_AVG	0.3251
predicted_BB	0.0650
predicted_H	1.2890
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0490
predicted_OBP	0.3335
predicted_R	0.3400
predicted_RBI	0.5570
predicted_SLG	0.3871
predicted_SO	1.1740

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1600	0.0650	0.0983	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0800	0.0160	0.0384	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9200	3.9640	3.9486	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3250	0.3251	0.3251	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1600	0.0650	0.0983	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1000	1.2890	1.2228	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0490	0.0459	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3340	0.3335	0.3337	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4000	0.3400	0.3610	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4800	0.5570	0.5301	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3870	0.3871	0.3871	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3600	1.1740	1.2391	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	25
Season rows before report date	25
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	25
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	3
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.255

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260505_CHW@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	643217
playerID	643217
playerName	Andrew Benintendi
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	CHW
teamID	6

Jarred Kelenic (672284) · BATTER · RF · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 3

All-history rows before 20260506: 3

System season_avg: 0.4000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.4000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.333	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.333	5.000	0.667	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.400	0.600	-0.400	-0.600
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.333	3.000	-1.333	-3.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.400	0.600	-0.400	-0.600
predicted_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.400	0.600	-0.400	-0.600
predicted_SO	0.000	3.000	3.000	Hitting_SO	0.000	0.000	3.000	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.333	-
predicted_AVG	0.400	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	1.130	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.400	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.000	-
predicted_SLG	0.400	-
predicted_SO	0.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.333	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.400	0.000
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.262	0.132
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.400	0.000
predicted_R	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.400	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.33), rates preserved: AVG=0.379 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 3

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB
last_5	0.45	3	-	10.000	4.000	0.4000	0.4000	0.4000	0.4000
last_10	0.35	3	-	10.000	4.000	0.4000	0.4000	0.4000	0.4000
season	0.20	3	-	10.000	4.000	0.4000	0.4000	0.4000	0.4000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.3330
predicted_AVG	0.4000
predicted_BB	0.0000
predicted_H	1.3330
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.4000
predicted_R	0.0000
predicted_RBI	0.0000
predicted_SLG	0.4000
predicted_SO	0.0000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3330	3.3330	3.3330	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.4000	0.4000	0.4000	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1300	1.3330	1.2620	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4000	0.4000	0.4000	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4000	0.4000	0.4000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	3
Season rows before report date	3
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	3
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.4

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.6
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260504_CHW@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	672284
playerID	672284
playerName	Jarred Kelenic
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	CHW
teamID	6

Noah Schultz (702273) · PITCHER · Starter · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 4

All-history rows before 20260506: 4

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.500	0.000	-1.500	0.000
predicted_IP	6.000	6.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.275	6.000	0.725	0.000
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	-	Pitching_SO	5.000	2.000	0.000	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 4

Reference playing time: 6.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	4	21.333	6.000	10.000	12.000	20.000	1.000	2.5312	1.0312	0.2812	0.4688	0.5625	0.9375	0.0469
last_10	0.35	4	21.333	6.000	10.000	12.000	20.000	1.000	2.5312	1.0312	0.2812	0.4688	0.5625	0.9375	0.0469
season	0.20	4	21.333	6.000	10.000	12.000	20.000	1.000	2.5312	1.0312	0.2812	0.4688	0.5625	0.9375	0.0469

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	3.0000
predicted_ER	1.5000
predicted_ERA	2.5312
predicted_H	2.5000
predicted_HR	0.2500
predicted_IP	5.3330
predicted_SO	5.0000
predicted_WHIP	1.0312

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	3.0000	2.3000	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	1.5000	0.9750	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.5312	2.5312	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	2.5000	2.6750	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.2500	0.5125	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	6.0000	5.3330	5.5664	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	5.0000	5.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0312	1.0312	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	4
Season rows before report date	4
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	4
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	6.0
H	3
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	5
HR	1
BF	22
Pitches	104

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	1
Pitching_Batters Faced	22
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.53
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	6
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	87
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	53
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260501_CHW@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	702273
playerID	702273
playerName	Noah Schultz
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	CHW
teamID	6

Grant Taylor (691799) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 6

All-history rows before 20260506: 6

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.017	1.100	-0.017	-0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.333	1.000	-0.333	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.333	0.000	4.000	1.000	7.000	0.0000	0.9375	0.0000	0.7500	0.1875	1.3125
last_10	0.35	6	6.333	1.000	6.000	2.000	8.000	1.4211	1.2632	0.1579	0.9474	0.3158	1.2632
season	0.20	6	6.333	1.000	6.000	2.000	8.000	1.4211	1.2632	0.1579	0.9474	0.3158	1.2632

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2740
predicted_ER	0.0920
predicted_ERA	0.7816
predicted_H	0.9110
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0610
predicted_SO	1.3630
predicted_WHIP	1.1166

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2740	0.1781	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.0920	0.0598	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.7816	0.7816	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.9110	0.9422	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0610	1.0396	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.3630	1.2359	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1166	1.1166	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.42
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	22
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	17
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260409_CHW@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	691799
playerID	691799
playerName	Grant Taylor
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHW
teamID	6

Sean Newcomb (656794) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 1

All-history rows before 20260506: 1

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	2.000	2.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	2.100	2.100	-1.100	-1.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	1	2.333	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	7.7143	1.7143	0.8571	1.2857	0.4286	0.4286
last_10	0.35	1	2.333	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	7.7143	1.7143	0.8571	1.2857	0.4286	0.4286
season	0.20	1	2.333	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	7.7143	1.7143	0.8571	1.2857	0.4286	0.4286

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.0000
predicted_ER	2.0000
predicted_ERA	7.7143
predicted_H	3.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	2.3330
predicted_SO	1.0000
predicted_WHIP	1.7143

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	2.0000	1.6500	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	7.7143	7.7143	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	3.0000	2.6500	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	2.3330	1.8664	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.0000	0.6500	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.7143	1.7143	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	10
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	7.71
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	5
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.1
Pitching_Pitches	33
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	26
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260326_CHW@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	656794
playerID	656794
playerName	Sean Newcomb
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHW
teamID	6

Seranthony Domínguez (622554) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 2

All-history rows before 20260506: 2

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.000	2.000	0.000	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.550	0.100	0.450	0.900
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	2	1.333	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	13.5000	3.0000	1.5000	2.2500	0.7500	0.7500
last_10	0.35	2	1.333	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	13.5000	3.0000	1.5000	2.2500	0.7500	0.7500
season	0.20	2	1.333	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	13.5000	3.0000	1.5000	2.2500	0.7500	0.7500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5000
predicted_ER	1.0000
predicted_ERA	13.5000
predicted_H	1.5000
predicted_HR	0.5000
predicted_IP	0.6670
predicted_SO	0.0000
predicted_WHIP	3.0000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.5000	0.6750	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	13.5000	13.5000	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.5000	0.9750	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.5000	0.3250	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.6670	0.7835	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.0000	0.3500	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	3.0000	3.0000	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	13.50
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	3
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	3
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	19
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L, BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260329_CHW@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	622554
playerID	622554
playerName	Seranthony Domínguez
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHW
teamID	6

Home Team: LAA

Mike Trout (545361) · BATTER · CF · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 36

All-history rows before 20260506: 36

System season_avg: 0.2620

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2619

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.139	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.139	0.000	-0.139	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.500	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	2.000	-0.500	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.328	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.262	1.000	-0.262	-1.000
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	1.000	2.000	0.000	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.917	2.000	-0.917	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.306	1.000	-0.306	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.465	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.436	1.000	-0.186	-0.750
predicted_R	0.889	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.889	2.000	-0.889	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.340	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.611	1.000	-0.611	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.139	0.000	-0.139	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.565	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.563	2.500	-0.563	-2.500
predicted_SO	1.083	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.083	0.000	-1.083	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.139	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.328	-
predicted_BB	1.000	-
predicted_H	1.100	-
predicted_HR	0.240	-
predicted_OBP	0.465	-
predicted_R	0.889	-
predicted_RBI	0.340	-
predicted_SLG	0.565	-
predicted_SO	1.083	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.089	-0.050
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.494	-0.006
predicted_AVG	0.328	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.896	-0.104
predicted_H	1.129	0.029
predicted_HBP	0.051	-
predicted_HR	0.250	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.465	-0.000
predicted_R	0.761	-0.128
predicted_RBI	0.346	0.006
predicted_SLG	0.565	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.369	0.286

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.322 HR/AB=0.071

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	6.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	9.000	0.3529	0.4762	0.5294	0.3529	0.0588	0.0588	0.2353	0.5294
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	12.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	7.000	8.000	14.000	0.3333	0.4667	0.6111	0.3333	0.0833	0.1111	0.2222	0.3889
season	0.20	36	-	126.000	33.000	5.000	11.000	22.000	32.000	36.000	39.000	0.2619	0.4364	0.5635	0.2619	0.0873	0.1746	0.2857	0.3095

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0620
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.4900
predicted_AVG	0.3278
predicted_BB	0.8400
predicted_H	1.1440
predicted_HBP	0.0510
predicted_HR	0.2550
predicted_OBP	0.4649
predicted_R	0.6920
predicted_RBI	0.3500
predicted_SLG	0.5648
predicted_SO	1.5230

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1390	0.0620	0.0890	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5000	3.4900	3.4935	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3280	0.3278	0.3279	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.8400	0.8960	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1000	1.1440	1.1286	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0510	0.0510	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2400	0.2550	0.2497	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4650	0.4649	0.4649	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8890	0.6920	0.7610	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3400	0.3500	0.3465	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5650	0.5648	0.5649	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0830	1.5230	1.3690	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.262

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	1.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260505_CHW@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	545361
playerID	545361
playerName	Mike Trout
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	LAA
teamID	13

Zach Neto (687263) · BATTER · SS · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 37

All-history rows before 20260506: 37

System season_avg: 0.2180

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2177

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.216	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.216	0.000	0.784	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.980	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.973	4.000	0.027	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.153	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.218	0.500	0.282	0.000
predicted_BB	0.595	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.595	0.000	-0.595	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.081	0.000	-0.081	0.000
predicted_H	0.610	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.865	2.000	1.135	0.000
predicted_HR	0.170	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.162	1.000	0.838	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.258	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.327	0.500	0.173	0.000
predicted_R	0.649	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.649	1.000	0.351	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.320	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	0.432	1.000	1.568	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.189	0.000	-0.189	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.306	1.500	1.500	Hitting_SLG	0.395	1.250	1.105	0.250
predicted_SO	1.486	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.486	1.000	-0.486	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.216	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.980	-
predicted_AVG	0.153	-
predicted_BB	0.595	-
predicted_H	0.610	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.258	-
predicted_R	0.649	-
predicted_RBI	0.320	-
predicted_SLG	0.306	-
predicted_SO	1.486	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.146	-0.070
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.896	-0.084
predicted_AVG	0.153	0.000
predicted_BB	0.472	-0.123
predicted_H	0.597	-0.013
predicted_HBP	0.140	-
predicted_HR	0.164	-0.006
predicted_OBP	0.258	0.000
predicted_R	0.604	-0.045
predicted_RBI	0.314	-0.006
predicted_SLG	0.306	0.000
predicted_SO	1.635	0.149

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.98), rates preserved: AVG=0.150 HR/AB=0.041

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.980

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	8.000	0.1111	0.2381	0.2778	0.1111	0.0556	0.0556	0.1111	0.4444
last_10	0.35	10	-	41.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	5.000	3.000	20.000	0.1707	0.2444	0.2927	0.1707	0.0244	0.0976	0.0732	0.4878
season	0.20	37	-	147.000	32.000	8.000	6.000	16.000	24.000	22.000	55.000	0.2177	0.3275	0.3946	0.2177	0.0408	0.1088	0.1497	0.3741

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1080
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.8500
predicted_AVG	0.1533
predicted_BB	0.4060
predicted_H	0.5900
predicted_HBP	0.1400
predicted_HR	0.1610
predicted_OBP	0.2582
predicted_R	0.5790
predicted_RBI	0.3110
predicted_SLG	0.3064
predicted_SO	1.7150

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2160	0.1080	0.1458	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9800	3.8500	3.8955	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1530	0.1533	0.1532	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5950	0.4060	0.4722	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6100	0.5900	0.5970	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1400	0.1400	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.1610	0.1642	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2580	0.2582	0.2581	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6490	0.5790	0.6035	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3200	0.3110	0.3141	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3060	0.3064	0.3063	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4860	1.7150	1.6349	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.218

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	1
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260505_CHW@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	687263
playerID	687263
playerName	Zach Neto
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	LAA
teamID	13

Jorge Soler (624585) · BATTER · DH · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 33

All-history rows before 20260506: 33

System season_avg: 0.2310

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2314

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.152	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.152	0.000	-0.152	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.667	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.667	4.000	0.333	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.231	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.231	0.250	-0.231	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.455	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.455	0.000	-0.455	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.810	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.848	1.000	-0.848	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.242	1.000	-0.242	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.299	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.324	0.250	-0.324	-0.250
predicted_R	0.545	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.545	1.000	-0.545	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.740	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.818	1.000	-0.818	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.519	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.471	1.000	-0.471	-1.000
predicted_SO	1.364	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.364	1.000	0.636	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.152	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.667	-
predicted_AVG	0.231	-
predicted_BB	0.455	-
predicted_H	0.810	-
predicted_HR	0.310	-
predicted_OBP	0.299	-
predicted_R	0.545	-
predicted_RBI	0.740	-
predicted_SLG	0.519	-
predicted_SO	1.364	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.118	-0.034
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.759	0.092
predicted_AVG	0.231	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.404	-0.051
predicted_H	0.855	0.045
predicted_HBP	0.019	-
predicted_HR	0.325	0.015
predicted_OBP	0.299	0.000
predicted_R	0.551	0.006
predicted_RBI	0.782	0.042
predicted_SLG	0.519	0.000
predicted_SO	1.339	-0.025

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.76), rates preserved: AVG=0.227 HR/AB=0.086

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	4.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	2.000	7.000	0.2105	0.2857	0.5263	0.2105	0.1053	0.2105	0.1053	0.3684
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	10.000	2.000	3.000	8.000	5.000	3.000	12.000	0.2564	0.3023	0.5385	0.2564	0.0769	0.2051	0.0769	0.3077
season	0.20	33	-	121.000	28.000	5.000	8.000	27.000	18.000	15.000	45.000	0.2314	0.3239	0.4711	0.2314	0.0661	0.2231	0.1240	0.3719

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.8080
predicted_AVG	0.2307
predicted_BB	0.3770
predicted_H	0.8790
predicted_HBP	0.0190
predicted_HR	0.3330
predicted_OBP	0.2992
predicted_R	0.5550
predicted_RBI	0.8040
predicted_SLG	0.5195
predicted_SO	1.3250

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1520	0.1000	0.1182	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6670	3.8080	3.7586	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2310	0.2307	0.2308	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4550	0.3770	0.4043	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8100	0.8790	0.8548	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0190	0.0190	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3100	0.3330	0.3250	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2990	0.2992	0.2991	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5450	0.5550	0.5515	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7400	0.8040	0.7816	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5190	0.5195	0.5193	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3640	1.3250	1.3386	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.231

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260505_CHW@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	624585
playerID	624585
playerName	Jorge Soler
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	LAA
teamID	13

Nolan Schanuel (694384) · BATTER · 1B · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 33

All-history rows before 20260506: 33

System season_avg: 0.2580

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2576

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.273	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.273	1.000	-0.273	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	4.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.314	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.258	0.250	0.076	0.083
predicted_BB	0.303	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.303	0.000	0.697	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_H	1.060	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.030	1.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.331	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.310	0.250	0.190	0.250
predicted_R	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.606	1.000	-0.606	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.453	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.394	0.500	-0.061	-0.167
predicted_SO	0.667	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.273	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.314	-
predicted_BB	0.303	-
predicted_H	1.060	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.331	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.240	-
predicted_SLG	0.453	-
predicted_SO	0.667	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.420	0.147
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.314	0.000
predicted_BB	0.146	-0.157
predicted_H	1.187	0.127
predicted_HBP	0.041	-
predicted_HR	0.019	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.331	-0.000
predicted_R	0.287	-0.046
predicted_RBI	0.267	0.027
predicted_SLG	0.453	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.632	-0.035

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.297 HR/AB=0.005

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	7.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	0.3500	0.3500	0.5000	0.3500	0.0000	0.0500	0.0000	0.1500
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	12.000	5.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	0.000	6.000	0.3000	0.3171	0.4250	0.3000	0.0000	0.0500	0.0000	0.1500
season	0.20	33	-	132.000	34.000	9.000	3.000	20.000	11.000	10.000	22.000	0.2576	0.3103	0.3939	0.2576	0.0227	0.1515	0.0758	0.1667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.5000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.0000
predicted_AVG	0.3140
predicted_BB	0.0610
predicted_H	1.2560
predicted_HBP	0.0410
predicted_HR	0.0180
predicted_OBP	0.3305
predicted_R	0.2620
predicted_RBI	0.2810
predicted_SLG	0.4525
predicted_SO	0.6130

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2730	0.5000	0.4205	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0000	4.0000	4.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3140	0.3140	0.3140	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3030	0.0610	0.1457	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0600	1.2560	1.1874	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0410	0.0410	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0180	0.0187	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3310	0.3305	0.3307	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.2620	0.2868	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2400	0.2810	0.2667	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4530	0.4525	0.4527	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6670	0.6130	0.6319	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.258

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260505_CHW@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	694384
playerID	694384
playerName	Nolan Schanuel
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	LAA
teamID	13

Jo Adell (666176) · BATTER · RF · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 37

All-history rows before 20260506: 37

System season_avg: 0.2640

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2635

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.054	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.054	0.000	-0.054	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	3.000	0.000	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.268	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.264	0.000	-0.264	0.000
predicted_BB	0.108	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.108	0.000	-0.108	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.054	0.000	-1.054	0.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.108	0.000	-0.108	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.281	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.299	0.000	-0.299	0.000
predicted_R	0.378	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.378	0.000	-0.378	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.330	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.541	0.000	-0.541	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.054	0.000	-0.054	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.313	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.358	0.000	-0.358	0.000
predicted_SO	0.892	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.892	0.000	-0.892	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.054	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.268	-
predicted_BB	0.108	-
predicted_H	1.000	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.281	-
predicted_R	0.378	-
predicted_RBI	0.330	-
predicted_SLG	0.313	-
predicted_SO	0.892	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.025	-0.029
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.860	-0.140
predicted_AVG	0.268	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.073	-0.035
predicted_H	1.008	0.008
predicted_HBP	0.020	-
predicted_HR	0.053	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.281	0.000
predicted_R	0.284	-0.094
predicted_RBI	0.332	0.002
predicted_SLG	0.313	0.000
predicted_SO	0.951	0.058

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.252 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	5.000	0.2778	0.2778	0.2778	0.2778	0.0000	0.0556	0.0000	0.2778
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	10.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	10.000	0.2564	0.2750	0.3333	0.2564	0.0256	0.1026	0.0256	0.2564
season	0.20	37	-	148.000	39.000	2.000	4.000	20.000	14.000	4.000	33.000	0.2635	0.2994	0.3581	0.2635	0.0270	0.1351	0.0270	0.2230

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0100
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7850
predicted_AVG	0.2675
predicted_BB	0.0540
predicted_H	1.0120
predicted_HBP	0.0200
predicted_HR	0.0540
predicted_OBP	0.2811
predicted_R	0.2340
predicted_RBI	0.3330
predicted_SLG	0.3133
predicted_SO	0.9820

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0540	0.0100	0.0254	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0000	3.7850	3.8603	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2680	0.2675	0.2677	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1080	0.0540	0.0729	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0000	1.0120	1.0078	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0200	0.0200	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0540	0.0526	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2810	0.2811	0.2811	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3780	0.2340	0.2844	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3300	0.3330	0.3320	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3130	0.3133	0.3132	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8920	0.9820	0.9505	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.264

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260505_CHW@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	666176
playerID	666176
playerName	Jo Adell
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	LAA
teamID	13

Vaughn Grissom (687093) · BATTER · 2B · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 13

All-history rows before 20260506: 13

System season_avg: 0.3110

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3111

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.308	0.000	-0.308	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.750	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.462	3.000	0.538	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.277	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.311	0.000	-0.311	0.000
predicted_BB	0.417	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.462	0.000	-0.462	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.930	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.077	0.000	-1.077	0.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.377	0.000	-0.377	0.000
predicted_R	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.462	0.000	-0.462	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.600	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.538	0.000	-0.538	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.467	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.467	0.000	-0.467	0.000
predicted_SO	0.083	3.000	3.000	Hitting_SO	0.077	0.000	2.923	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.333	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.750	-
predicted_AVG	0.277	-
predicted_BB	0.417	-
predicted_H	0.930	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.320	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.600	-
predicted_SLG	0.467	-
predicted_SO	0.083	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.310	-0.023
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.776	0.026
predicted_AVG	0.277	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.350	-0.067
predicted_H	1.007	0.077
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.138	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.320	0.000
predicted_R	0.471	-0.029
predicted_RBI	0.645	0.045
predicted_SLG	0.467	0.000
predicted_SO	0.063	-0.020

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.78), rates preserved: AVG=0.267 HR/AB=0.036

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	0.2105	0.2381	0.4211	0.2105	0.0526	0.2105	0.0526	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	13.000	4.000	1.000	6.000	5.000	4.000	1.000	0.3421	0.3953	0.5263	0.3421	0.0263	0.1579	0.1053	0.0263
season	0.20	12	-	45.000	14.000	4.000	1.000	6.000	6.000	5.000	1.000	0.3111	0.3725	0.4667	0.3111	0.0222	0.1333	0.1111	0.0222

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2970
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7900
predicted_AVG	0.2767
predicted_BB	0.3140
predicted_H	1.0490
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1420
predicted_OBP	0.3200
predicted_R	0.4550
predicted_RBI	0.6700
predicted_SLG	0.4670
predicted_SO	0.0520

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3330	0.2970	0.3096	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7500	3.7900	3.7760	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2770	0.2767	0.2768	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4170	0.3140	0.3500	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9300	1.0490	1.0073	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1420	0.1378	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3200	0.3200	0.3200	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.4550	0.4708	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6000	0.6700	0.6455	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4670	0.4670	0.4670	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0830	0.0520	0.0628	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.311

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260505_CHW@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	687093
playerID	687093
playerName	Vaughn Grissom
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	LAA
teamID	13

Oswald Peraza (672724) · BATTER · 3B · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 24

All-history rows before 20260506: 24

System season_avg: 0.2820

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2824

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.542	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.542	4.000	0.458	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.288	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.282	0.000	-0.032	0.250
predicted_BB	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.042	0.000	-0.042	0.000
predicted_H	0.890	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.355	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.344	0.000	-0.094	0.250
predicted_R	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.397	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.471	0.000	-0.221	0.250
predicted_SO	0.958	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.958	2.000	0.042	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.542	-
predicted_AVG	0.288	-
predicted_BB	0.250	-
predicted_H	0.890	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.355	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.250	-
predicted_SLG	0.397	-
predicted_SO	0.958	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.184	0.017
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.653	0.111
predicted_AVG	0.288	0.000
predicted_BB	0.225	-0.025
predicted_H	1.008	0.118
predicted_HBP	0.176	-
predicted_HR	0.067	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.355	0.000
predicted_R	0.253	-0.080
predicted_RBI	0.287	0.037
predicted_SLG	0.397	0.000
predicted_SO	1.060	0.102

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.65), rates preserved: AVG=0.276 HR/AB=0.018

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 24

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	0.2632	0.3333	0.3158	0.2632	0.0000	0.0526	0.0526	0.3158
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	12.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	2.000	11.000	0.3243	0.3902	0.4595	0.3243	0.0270	0.1081	0.0541	0.2973
season	0.20	24	-	85.000	24.000	4.000	4.000	9.000	8.000	6.000	23.000	0.2824	0.3441	0.4706	0.2823	0.0471	0.1059	0.0706	0.2706

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1930
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7130
predicted_AVG	0.2884
predicted_BB	0.2110
predicted_H	1.0710
predicted_HBP	0.1760
predicted_HR	0.0700
predicted_OBP	0.3554
predicted_R	0.2100
predicted_RBI	0.3070
predicted_SLG	0.3971
predicted_SO	1.1150

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.1930	0.1839	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5420	3.7130	3.6532	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2880	0.2884	0.2883	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2500	0.2110	0.2246	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8900	1.0710	1.0076	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1760	0.1760	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0700	0.0665	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3550	0.3554	0.3553	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.2100	0.2530	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2500	0.3070	0.2871	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3970	0.3971	0.3971	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9580	1.1150	1.0600	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	24
Season rows before report date	24
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	24
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.282

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260503_NYM@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	672724
playerID	672724
playerName	Oswald Peraza
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	LAA
teamID	13

Travis d'Arnaud (518595) · BATTER · C · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 11

All-history rows before 20260506: 11

System season_avg: 0.1880

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1875

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.091	2.000	2.000	Hitting_2B	0.091	0.000	1.909	2.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.909	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.909	3.000	0.091	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.202	0.667	0.667	Hitting_AVG	0.188	0.667	0.479	0.000
predicted_BB	0.273	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.273	0.000	0.727	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.490	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.545	2.000	1.455	0.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.291	0.750	0.750	Hitting_OBP	0.297	0.667	0.453	0.083
predicted_R	0.364	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.364	0.000	0.636	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.208	1.333	1.333	Hitting_SLG	0.219	0.667	1.115	0.667
predicted_SO	0.636	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.636	1.000	-0.636	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.091	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.909	-
predicted_AVG	0.202	-
predicted_BB	0.273	-
predicted_H	0.490	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.291	-
predicted_R	0.364	-
predicted_RBI	0.000	-
predicted_SLG	0.208	-
predicted_SO	0.636	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.043	-0.048
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.817	-0.092
predicted_AVG	0.202	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.257	-0.016
predicted_H	0.534	0.044
predicted_HBP	0.101	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.291	0.000
predicted_R	0.362	-0.002
predicted_RBI	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.208	0.000
predicted_SO	0.535	-0.101

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.91), rates preserved: AVG=0.184 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	2.000	2.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	13.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	0.2308	0.2857	0.2308	0.2308	0.0769	0.1538
last_10	0.35	10	-	29.000	5.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	5.000	0.1724	0.2941	0.1724	0.1724	0.1035	0.1724
season	0.20	11	-	32.000	6.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	7.000	0.1875	0.2973	0.2188	0.1875	0.0938	0.2188

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0170
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.7670
predicted_AVG	0.2017
predicted_BB	0.2480
predicted_H	0.5580
predicted_HBP	0.1010
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.2910
predicted_R	0.3610
predicted_RBI	0.0000
predicted_SLG	0.2080
predicted_SO	0.4800

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0910	0.0170	0.0429	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.9090	2.7670	2.8167	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2020	0.2017	0.2018	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2730	0.2480	0.2568	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4900	0.5580	0.5342	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1010	0.1010	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2910	0.2910	0.2910	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3640	0.3610	0.3620	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2080	0.2080	0.2080	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6360	0.4800	0.5346	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	2
2B	2
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.188

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260504_CHW@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	518595
playerID	518595
playerName	Travis d'Arnaud
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	LAA
teamID	13

Bryce Teodosio (669326) · BATTER · LF · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 11

All-history rows before 20260506: 11

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.091	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.091	1.000	-0.091	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.909	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	2.909	3.000	1.091	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.339	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.667	-0.250	-0.667
predicted_BB	0.091	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.091	1.000	-0.091	-1.000
predicted_H	0.800	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.727	2.000	-0.727	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.352	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.273	0.667	-0.273	-0.667
predicted_R	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.182	1.000	-0.182	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.281	1.000	-0.281	-1.000
predicted_SO	1.364	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.364	1.000	-1.364	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.091	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.909	-
predicted_AVG	0.339	-
predicted_BB	0.091	-
predicted_H	0.800	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.352	-
predicted_R	0.182	-
predicted_RBI	0.160	-
predicted_SLG	0.390	-
predicted_SO	1.364	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.126	0.035
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.875	-0.034
predicted_AVG	0.339	0.000
predicted_BB	0.066	-0.025
predicted_H	0.910	0.110
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.352	0.000
predicted_R	0.192	0.010
predicted_RBI	0.184	0.024
predicted_SLG	0.390	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.361	-0.003

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.91), rates preserved: AVG=0.313 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	7.000	0.4286	0.4286	0.5000	0.4286	0.0714	0.0000	0.5000
last_10	0.35	10	-	29.000	8.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	13.000	0.2759	0.3000	0.3103	0.2759	0.0690	0.0345	0.4483
season	0.20	11	-	32.000	8.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	15.000	0.2500	0.2727	0.2812	0.2500	0.0625	0.0312	0.4688

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1440
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.8570
predicted_AVG	0.3394
predicted_BB	0.0520
predicted_H	0.9700
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.3524
predicted_R	0.1970
predicted_RBI	0.1970
predicted_SLG	0.3898
predicted_SO	1.3590

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0910	0.1440	0.1255	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.9090	2.8570	2.8752	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3390	0.3394	0.3393	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0910	0.0520	0.0656	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8000	0.9700	0.9105	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3520	0.3524	0.3523	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1820	0.1970	0.1917	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1600	0.1970	0.1840	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3900	0.3898	0.3899	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3640	1.3590	1.3607	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	1
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260427_LAA@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	669326
playerID	669326
playerName	Bryce Teodosio
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	LAA
teamID	13

Walbert Urena (700712) · PITCHER · Starter · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 5

All-history rows before 20260506: 5

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	5.000	5.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.400	1.000	3.600	4.000
predicted_IP	5.000	5.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	3.080	5.000	1.920	0.000
predicted_SO	7.000	7.000	-	Pitching_SO	3.400	4.000	3.600	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 5

Reference playing time: 5.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	16.333	7.000	17.000	13.000	17.000	1.000	3.8571	1.8367	0.4286	1.0408	0.7959	1.0408	0.0612
last_10	0.35	5	16.333	7.000	17.000	13.000	17.000	1.000	3.8571	1.8367	0.4286	1.0408	0.7959	1.0408	0.0612
season	0.20	5	16.333	7.000	17.000	13.000	17.000	1.000	3.8571	1.8367	0.4286	1.0408	0.7959	1.0408	0.0612

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.6000
predicted_ER	1.4000
predicted_ERA	3.8571
predicted_H	3.4000
predicted_HR	0.2000
predicted_IP	3.2670
predicted_SO	3.4000
predicted_WHIP	1.8367

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	4.0000	2.6000	3.0900	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	5.0000	1.4000	2.6600	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.8571	3.8571	form_only
predicted_H	5.0000	3.4000	3.9600	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.2000	0.4800	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.0000	3.2670	3.8735	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	7.0000	3.4000	4.6600	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.8367	1.8367	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	5
Season rows before report date	5
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	5
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.0
H	5
R	5
ER	5
BB	4
SO	7
HR	1
BF	25
Pitches	105

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	19
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	3.86
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	5
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.0
Pitching_Pitches	68
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	4
Pitching_Strikes	41
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260501_NYM@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	700712
playerID	700712
playerName	Walbert Urena
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	LAA
teamID	13

Brent Suter (608718) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 13

All-history rows before 20260506: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.692	0.000	-0.692
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.500	1.000	-0.500
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.538	1.000	-0.538

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.667	5.000	6.000	1.000	5.000	1.000	9.6429	1.5000	1.0714	1.2857	0.2143	1.0714	0.2143
last_10	0.35	10	15.667	7.000	13.000	6.000	14.000	3.000	4.0213	1.2128	0.4468	0.8298	0.3830	0.8936	0.1915
season	0.20	13	20.667	9.000	19.000	8.000	20.000	3.000	3.9194	1.3065	0.4355	0.9194	0.3871	0.9677	0.1452

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3960
predicted_ER	0.9330
predicted_ERA	6.5306
predicted_H	1.3540
predicted_HR	0.2480
predicted_IP	1.2860
predicted_SO	1.2710
predicted_WHIP	1.3608

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3960	0.2574	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.9330	0.6065	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	6.5306	6.5306	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.3540	0.8801	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2480	0.1612	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.2860	1.1859	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.2710	1.1761	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3608	1.3608	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.92
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_CHW@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	608718
playerID	608718
playerName	Brent Suter
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAA
teamID	13

Chase Silseth (681217) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 16

All-history rows before 20260506: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.250	0.000	0.750	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.519	0.100	0.481	0.900
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.625	0.000	0.375	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.667	2.000	6.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	4.9091	2.7273	0.5454	1.6364	1.0909	0.2727	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	7.000	4.000	9.000	9.000	5.000	1.000	5.1429	2.5714	0.5714	1.2857	1.2857	0.7143	0.1429
season	0.20	16	11.333	4.000	11.000	10.000	10.000	1.000	3.1765	1.8529	0.3529	0.9706	0.8823	0.8823	0.0882

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.8010
predicted_ER	0.3700
predicted_ERA	4.6444
predicted_H	0.9890
predicted_HR	0.0480
predicted_IP	0.7170
predicted_SO	0.3940
predicted_WHIP	2.4979

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.8010	0.5207	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.3700	0.5905	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.6444	4.6444	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9890	0.6429	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0480	0.0312	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.7170	0.8160	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.3940	0.6061	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	2.4979	2.4979	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	2
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.18
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	2
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	6
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	4
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260501_NYM@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	681217
playerID	681217
playerName	Chase Silseth
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAA
teamID	13

José Fermin (820862) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 4

All-history rows before 20260506: 4

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.050	1.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.500	2.000	1.500	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 4

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	4	4.667	1.000	2.000	6.000	1.000	1.9286	0.4286	0.2143	0.4286	1.2857	0.2143
last_10	0.35	4	4.667	1.000	2.000	6.000	1.000	1.9286	0.4286	0.2143	0.4286	1.2857	0.2143
season	0.20	4	4.667	1.000	2.000	6.000	1.000	1.9286	0.4286	0.2143	0.4286	1.2857	0.2143

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.0000
predicted_ER	0.2500
predicted_ERA	1.9286
predicted_H	0.5000
predicted_HR	0.2500
predicted_IP	1.1670
predicted_SO	1.5000
predicted_WHIP	0.4286

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2500	0.1625	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.9286	1.9286	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.5000	0.3250	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2500	0.1625	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.1670	1.1086	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	1.5000	2.0250	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.4286	0.4286	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	4
Season rows before report date	4
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	4
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	3
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.93
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_CHW@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	820862
playerID	820862
playerName	José Fermin
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAA
teamID	13

Sam Bachman (696147) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 13

All-history rows before 20260506: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.538	1.000	-0.538	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.238	1.200	-0.238	-0.200
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.615	3.000	-0.615	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.333	3.000	4.000	2.000	7.000	2.000	4.2632	0.9474	0.4737	0.6316	0.3158	1.1053	0.3158
last_10	0.35	10	15.000	7.000	10.000	6.000	16.000	2.000	4.2000	1.0667	0.4667	0.6667	0.4000	1.0667	0.1333
season	0.20	13	18.667	7.000	11.000	10.000	21.000	2.000	3.3750	1.1250	0.3750	0.5893	0.5357	1.1250	0.1071

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5380
predicted_ER	0.6240
predicted_ERA	4.0634
predicted_H	0.8780
predicted_HR	0.2910
predicted_IP	1.3820
predicted_SO	1.5140
predicted_WHIP	1.0247

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.5380	0.6997	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.6240	0.4056	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.0634	4.0634	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.8780	0.9207	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2910	0.1891	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.3820	1.2483	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.5140	1.3341	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0247	1.0247	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	22

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	3.38
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.2
Pitching_Pitches	20
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	15
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_CHW@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	696147
playerID	696147
playerName	Sam Bachman
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAA
teamID	13

20260506_CIN@CHC

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "confidence": 0.58, "home_win_probability": 0.58, "away_win_probability": 0.42000000000000004, "predicted_score_text": "CIN 4 - 6 CHC", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to final winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "predicted_score_text": "CIN 4 - 5 CHC", "confidence": 0.58, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score", "final_prediction_synced": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "CIN 4 - 5 CHC", "winner": "CHC"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "CIN 4 - 6 CHC", "winner": "CHC"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 1, "total_run_delta": 1, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"}}

Away Team: CIN

Jose Trevino (624431) · BATTER · C · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 8

All-history rows before 20260506: 8

System season_avg: 0.1580

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1579

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.125	1.000	-0.125	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.167	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	2.375	3.000	1.625	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.183	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.158	0.333	0.092	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.360	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.375	1.000	0.625	0.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.230	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.200	0.333	0.050	-0.083
predicted_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.244	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.211	0.667	0.039	-0.417
predicted_SO	0.667	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.167	-
predicted_AVG	0.183	-
predicted_BB	0.167	-
predicted_H	0.360	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.230	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.000	-
predicted_SLG	0.244	-
predicted_SO	0.667	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.177	0.010
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.060	-0.107
predicted_AVG	0.183	0.000
predicted_BB	0.177	0.010
predicted_H	0.483	0.123
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.230	0.000
predicted_R	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.244	0.000
predicted_SO	0.585	-0.082

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.17), rates preserved: AVG=0.153 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	0.2143	0.2667	0.2857	0.2143	0.0714	0.1429
last_10	0.35	6	-	19.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	0.1579	0.2000	0.2105	0.1579	0.0526	0.2105
season	0.20	6	-	19.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	0.1579	0.2000	0.2105	0.1579	0.0526	0.2105

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1830
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.0020
predicted_AVG	0.1833
predicted_BB	0.1830
predicted_H	0.5500
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.2300
predicted_R	0.0000
predicted_RBI	0.0000
predicted_SLG	0.2443
predicted_SO	0.5410

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.1830	0.1774	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1670	3.0020	3.0598	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1830	0.1833	0.1832	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1670	0.1830	0.1774	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3600	0.5500	0.4835	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2300	0.2300	0.2300	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2440	0.2443	0.2442	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6670	0.5410	0.5851	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.158

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260503_CIN@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	624431
playerID	624431
playerName	Jose Trevino
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	CIN
teamID	7

Spencer Steer (668715) · BATTER · 1B · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 33

All-history rows before 20260506: 33

System season_avg: 0.2480

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2478

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.424	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.424	4.000	0.576	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.318	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.248	0.250	-0.248	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.303	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.303	0.000	-0.303	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.940	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.848	1.000	-0.848	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.152	0.000	-0.152	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.382	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.323	0.250	-0.323	-0.250
predicted_R	0.364	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.364	0.000	-0.364	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.399	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.434	0.250	-0.434	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.970	3.000	3.000	Hitting_SO	0.970	1.000	2.030	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.424	-
predicted_AVG	0.318	-
predicted_BB	0.303	-
predicted_H	0.940	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.382	-
predicted_R	0.364	-
predicted_RBI	0.300	-
predicted_SLG	0.399	-
predicted_SO	0.970	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	-0.071
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.366	-0.058
predicted_AVG	0.318	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.296	-0.007
predicted_H	1.018	0.078
predicted_HBP	0.054	-
predicted_HR	0.064	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.382	-0.000
predicted_R	0.221	-0.143
predicted_RBI	0.323	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.399	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.810	-0.160

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.42), rates preserved: AVG=0.297 HR/AB=0.019

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=19.0, BvP AVG=0.316)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	0.3529	0.3889	0.3529	0.3529	0.0000	0.0588	0.0588	0.2353
last_10	0.35	10	-	32.000	10.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	4.000	5.000	0.3125	0.4054	0.4375	0.3125	0.0312	0.1562	0.1250	0.1562
season	0.20	33	-	113.000	28.000	6.000	5.000	11.000	12.000	10.000	32.000	0.2478	0.3228	0.4336	0.2478	0.0442	0.0974	0.0885	0.2832

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0720
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.3350
predicted_AVG	0.3177
predicted_BB	0.2930
predicted_H	1.0600
predicted_HBP	0.0540
predicted_HR	0.0660
predicted_OBP	0.3815
predicted_R	0.1440
predicted_RBI	0.3360
predicted_SLG	0.3987
predicted_SO	0.7240

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1820	0.0720	0.1105	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4240	3.3350	3.3661	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3180	0.3177	0.3178	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3030	0.2930	0.2965	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9400	1.0600	1.0180	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0540	0.0540	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0660	0.0639	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3820	0.3815	0.3817	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3640	0.1440	0.2210	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3000	0.3360	0.3234	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3990	0.3987	0.3988	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9700	0.7240	0.8101	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.248

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	1
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260505_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	668715
playerID	668715
playerName	Spencer Steer
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	CIN
teamID	7

Nathaniel Lowe (663993) · BATTER · DH · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 19

All-history rows before 20260506: 19

System season_avg: 0.2810

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2812

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.263	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.263	0.000	-0.263	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.368	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.368	4.000	0.632	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.265	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.281	0.500	-0.031	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.421	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.421	0.000	-0.421	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.840	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.947	2.000	0.053	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.316	1.000	-0.316	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.326	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.361	0.500	-0.111	-0.250
predicted_R	0.474	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.474	1.000	-0.474	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.740	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.789	1.000	-0.789	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.587	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.641	1.250	-0.391	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.789	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.789	1.000	0.211	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.263	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.368	-
predicted_AVG	0.265	-
predicted_BB	0.421	-
predicted_H	0.840	-
predicted_HR	0.270	-
predicted_OBP	0.326	-
predicted_R	0.474	-
predicted_RBI	0.740	-
predicted_SLG	0.587	-
predicted_SO	0.789	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.231	-0.033
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.385	0.017
predicted_AVG	0.265	0.000
predicted_BB	0.351	-0.070
predicted_H	0.879	0.039
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.285	0.015
predicted_OBP	0.326	0.000
predicted_R	0.400	-0.074
predicted_RBI	0.778	0.038
predicted_SLG	0.587	0.000
predicted_SO	1.051	0.262

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.38), rates preserved: AVG=0.260 HR/AB=0.084

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	8.000	0.2353	0.2778	0.4706	0.2353	0.0588	0.2353	0.0588	0.4706
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	10.000	2.000	4.000	8.000	5.000	4.000	9.000	0.2941	0.3684	0.7059	0.2941	0.1177	0.2353	0.1177	0.2647
season	0.20	19	-	64.000	18.000	5.000	6.000	15.000	9.000	8.000	15.000	0.2812	0.3611	0.6406	0.2812	0.0938	0.2344	0.1250	0.2344

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2130
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.3940
predicted_AVG	0.2651
predicted_BB	0.3140
predicted_H	0.9000
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.2930
predicted_OBP	0.3262
predicted_R	0.3600
predicted_RBI	0.7980
predicted_SLG	0.5870
predicted_SO	1.1920

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2630	0.2130	0.2305	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3680	3.3940	3.3849	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2650	0.2651	0.2651	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4210	0.3140	0.3514	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8400	0.9000	0.8790	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2700	0.2930	0.2850	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3260	0.3262	0.3261	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4740	0.3600	0.3999	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7400	0.7980	0.7777	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5870	0.5870	0.5870	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7890	1.1920	1.0510	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.281

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260505_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	663993
playerID	663993
playerName	Nathaniel Lowe
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	CIN
teamID	7

Will Benson (666181) · BATTER · RF · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 16

All-history rows before 20260506: 16

System season_avg: 0.1590

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1591

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.062	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_3B	0.062	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_AB	2.750	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	2.750	3.000	1.250	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.166	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.159	0.333	0.091	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.312	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.312	1.000	-0.312	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_H	0.380	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.438	1.000	0.562	0.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.242	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.245	0.500	0.005	-0.250
predicted_R	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.250	1.000	-0.250	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.356	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.295	0.333	-0.045	-0.083
predicted_SO	1.062	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.062	2.000	-0.062	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.062	-
predicted_3B	0.062	-
predicted_AB	2.750	-
predicted_AVG	0.166	-
predicted_BB	0.312	-
predicted_H	0.380	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.242	-
predicted_R	0.250	-
predicted_RBI	0.110	-
predicted_SLG	0.356	-
predicted_SO	1.062	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.109	0.047
predicted_3B	0.031	-0.031
predicted_AB	2.893	0.143
predicted_AVG	0.166	0.000
predicted_BB	0.304	-0.008
predicted_H	0.454	0.074
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.122	0.022
predicted_OBP	0.242	0.000
predicted_R	0.382	0.132
predicted_RBI	0.135	0.025
predicted_SLG	0.356	0.000
predicted_SO	1.323	0.261

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.89), rates preserved: AVG=0.157 HR/AB=0.042

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=18.0, BvP AVG=0.444)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	9.000	0.1875	0.2353	0.4375	0.1875	0.0625	0.0625	0.0625	0.5625
last_10	0.35	10	-	28.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	13.000	0.1429	0.2500	0.2857	0.1429	0.0357	0.0357	0.1429	0.4643
season	0.20	16	-	44.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	5.000	17.000	0.1591	0.2449	0.2955	0.1591	0.0227	0.0454	0.1136	0.3864

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1340
predicted_3B	0.0140
predicted_AB	2.9700
predicted_AVG	0.1662
predicted_BB	0.3000
predicted_H	0.4940
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1340
predicted_OBP	0.2424
predicted_R	0.4530
predicted_RBI	0.1480
predicted_SLG	0.3560
predicted_SO	1.4640

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0620	0.1340	0.1088	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0620	0.0140	0.0308	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.7500	2.9700	2.8930	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1660	0.1662	0.1661	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3120	0.3000	0.3042	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3800	0.4940	0.4541	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1340	0.1221	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2420	0.2424	0.2423	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2500	0.4530	0.3820	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1100	0.1480	0.1347	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3560	0.3560	0.3560	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0620	1.4640	1.3233	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.159

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260504_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	666181
playerID	666181
playerName	Will Benson
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	CIN
teamID	7

Sal Stewart (701398) · BATTER · 3B · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 36

All-history rows before 20260506: 36

System season_avg: 0.2520

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2519

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.750	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.750	4.000	0.250	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.154	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.252	0.250	-0.002	0.000
predicted_BB	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.560	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.944	1.000	0.056	0.000
predicted_HR	0.080	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.250	0.000	0.750	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.185	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.335	0.250	-0.085	0.000
predicted_R	0.556	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.556	0.000	0.444	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.310	3.000	3.000	Hitting_RBI	0.806	0.000	2.194	3.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.194	0.000	-0.194	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.238	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SLG	0.496	0.250	0.504	0.750
predicted_SO	0.806	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.806	2.000	0.194	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.750	-
predicted_AVG	0.154	-
predicted_BB	0.500	-
predicted_H	0.560	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.185	-
predicted_R	0.556	-
predicted_RBI	0.310	-
predicted_SLG	0.238	-
predicted_SO	0.806	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.105	-0.062
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.938	0.188
predicted_AVG	0.154	0.000
predicted_BB	0.291	-0.209
predicted_H	0.602	0.042
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.086	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.185	-0.000
predicted_R	0.342	-0.215
predicted_RBI	0.336	0.026
predicted_SLG	0.238	0.000
predicted_SO	0.860	0.054

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.94), rates preserved: AVG=0.153 HR/AB=0.022

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	3.000	3.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	5.000	0.0952	0.0952	0.0952	0.0952	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.2381
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	2.000	8.000	0.1750	0.2143	0.2750	0.1750	0.0250	0.1250	0.0500	0.2000
season	0.20	36	-	135.000	34.000	6.000	9.000	29.000	20.000	18.000	29.000	0.2519	0.3355	0.4963	0.2519	0.0667	0.2148	0.1333	0.2148

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0710
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.0400
predicted_AVG	0.1545
predicted_BB	0.1780
predicted_H	0.6240
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0890
predicted_OBP	0.1849
predicted_R	0.2260
predicted_RBI	0.3500
predicted_SLG	0.2384
predicted_SO	0.8890

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.0710	0.1046	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7500	4.0400	3.9385	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1540	0.1545	0.1543	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5000	0.1780	0.2907	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5600	0.6240	0.6016	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0890	0.0858	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1850	0.1849	0.1849	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5560	0.2260	0.3415	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3100	0.3500	0.3360	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2380	0.2384	0.2383	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8060	0.8890	0.8599	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	3
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.252

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260505_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	701398
playerID	701398
playerName	Sal Stewart
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	CIN
teamID	7

Matt McLain (680574) · BATTER · 2B · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 32

All-history rows before 20260506: 32

System season_avg: 0.1920

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1920

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.188	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.188	0.000	0.812	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.906	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.906	4.000	0.094	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.137	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.192	0.000	0.308	0.500
predicted_BB	0.531	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.531	0.000	-0.531	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_H	0.440	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.750	0.000	1.250	2.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.180	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.299	0.000	0.201	0.500
predicted_R	0.406	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.406	0.000	0.594	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.190	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.281	0.000	0.719	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.219	0.750	0.750	Hitting_SLG	0.288	0.000	0.462	0.750
predicted_SO	1.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.125	0.000	-1.125	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.188	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.906	-
predicted_AVG	0.137	-
predicted_BB	0.531	-
predicted_H	0.440	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.180	-
predicted_R	0.406	-
predicted_RBI	0.190	-
predicted_SLG	0.219	-
predicted_SO	1.125	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.113	-0.075
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.932	0.026
predicted_AVG	0.137	0.000
predicted_BB	0.325	-0.206
predicted_H	0.506	0.066
predicted_HBP	0.013	-
predicted_HR	0.079	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.180	-0.000
predicted_R	0.264	-0.142
predicted_RBI	0.219	0.029
predicted_SLG	0.219	0.000
predicted_SO	1.083	-0.042

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.93), rates preserved: AVG=0.129 HR/AB=0.020

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=14.0, BvP AVG=0.214)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.906

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	5.000	0.1000	0.1000	0.1000	0.1000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	3.000	3.000	11.000	0.1538	0.2143	0.3333	0.1538	0.0513	0.1282	0.0769	0.2821
season	0.20	32	-	125.000	24.000	6.000	2.000	9.000	13.000	17.000	36.000	0.1920	0.2986	0.2880	0.1920	0.0160	0.0720	0.1360	0.2880

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0730
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.9460
predicted_AVG	0.1372
predicted_BB	0.2140
predicted_H	0.5420
predicted_HBP	0.0130
predicted_HR	0.0830
predicted_OBP	0.1797
predicted_R	0.1880
predicted_RBI	0.2340
predicted_SLG	0.2193
predicted_SO	1.0610

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1880	0.0730	0.1132	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9060	3.9460	3.9320	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1370	0.1372	0.1371	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5310	0.2140	0.3249	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4400	0.5420	0.5063	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0130	0.0130	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0830	0.0785	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1800	0.1797	0.1798	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4060	0.1880	0.2643	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1900	0.2340	0.2186	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2190	0.2193	0.2192	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1250	1.0610	1.0834	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.192

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260505_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	680574
playerID	680574
playerName	Matt McLain
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	CIN
teamID	7

TJ Friedl (670770) · BATTER · CF · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 31

All-history rows before 20260506: 31

System season_avg: 0.1950

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1951

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.194	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.194	0.000	-0.194	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.990	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.968	5.000	0.032	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.195	0.000	-0.195	0.000
predicted_BB	0.323	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.323	0.000	-0.323	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.920	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.774	0.000	-0.774	0.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.065	0.000	-0.065	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.269	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.272	0.000	-0.272	0.000
predicted_R	0.419	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.419	0.000	-0.419	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.226	0.000	-0.226	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.129	0.000	-0.129	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.384	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.293	0.000	-0.293	0.000
predicted_SO	0.935	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.935	1.000	1.065	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.194	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.990	-
predicted_AVG	0.230	-
predicted_BB	0.323	-
predicted_H	0.920	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.269	-
predicted_R	0.419	-
predicted_RBI	0.150	-
predicted_SLG	0.384	-
predicted_SO	0.935	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.302	0.108
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.934	-0.056
predicted_AVG	0.230	0.000
predicted_BB	0.154	-0.169
predicted_H	0.906	-0.014
predicted_HBP	0.146	-
predicted_HR	0.081	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.269	0.000
predicted_R	0.431	0.012
predicted_RBI	0.148	-0.002
predicted_SLG	0.384	0.000
predicted_SO	0.805	-0.130

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.99), rates preserved: AVG=0.227 HR/AB=0.020

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=20.0, BvP AVG=0.150)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.990

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	0.2105	0.2500	0.3158	0.2105	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.1579
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	11.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	0.000	8.000	0.2750	0.2927	0.5250	0.2750	0.0500	0.0750	0.0000	0.2000
season	0.20	31	-	123.000	24.000	6.000	2.000	7.000	13.000	10.000	29.000	0.1951	0.2721	0.2927	0.1951	0.0163	0.0569	0.0813	0.2358

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3600
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.9040
predicted_AVG	0.2300
predicted_BB	0.0630
predicted_H	0.8980
predicted_HBP	0.1460
predicted_HR	0.0810
predicted_OBP	0.2694
predicted_R	0.4380
predicted_RBI	0.1470
predicted_SLG	0.3844
predicted_SO	0.7350

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1940	0.3600	0.3019	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9900	3.9040	3.9341	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2300	0.2300	0.2300	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3230	0.0630	0.1540	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9200	0.8980	0.9057	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1460	0.1460	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0810	0.0806	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2690	0.2694	0.2693	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4190	0.4380	0.4314	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1500	0.1470	0.1480	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3840	0.3844	0.3843	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9350	0.7350	0.8050	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.195

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF-LF
gameID	20260505_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	670770
playerID	670770
playerName	TJ Friedl
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	CIN
teamID	7

JJ Bleday (668709) · BATTER · LF · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 8

All-history rows before 20260506: 8

System season_avg: 0.2920

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2917

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	4.000	1.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.285	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.292	0.250	-0.042	0.000
predicted_BB	0.625	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.625	0.000	-0.625	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.820	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.875	1.000	0.125	0.000
predicted_HR	0.480	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.385	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.414	0.250	-0.164	0.000
predicted_R	0.750	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.750	1.000	0.250	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.620	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.625	1.000	-0.625	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.833	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.833	1.000	-0.583	-0.750
predicted_SO	0.625	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.625	1.000	0.375	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.285	-
predicted_BB	0.625	-
predicted_H	0.820	-
predicted_HR	0.480	-
predicted_OBP	0.385	-
predicted_R	0.750	-
predicted_RBI	0.620	-
predicted_SLG	0.833	-
predicted_SO	0.625	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.146	0.021
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.175	0.175
predicted_AVG	0.285	0.000
predicted_BB	0.569	-0.056
predicted_H	0.893	0.074
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.522	0.042
predicted_OBP	0.385	0.000
predicted_R	0.820	0.070
predicted_RBI	0.673	0.053
predicted_SLG	0.833	0.000
predicted_SO	0.675	0.050

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.18), rates preserved: AVG=0.281 HR/AB=0.164

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	5.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	5.000	2.000	4.000	0.2778	0.3500	0.8333	0.2778	0.1667	0.2222	0.1111	0.2222
last_10	0.35	8	-	24.000	7.000	1.000	4.000	5.000	6.000	5.000	5.000	0.2917	0.4138	0.8333	0.2917	0.1667	0.2083	0.2083	0.2083
season	0.20	8	-	24.000	7.000	1.000	4.000	5.000	6.000	5.000	5.000	0.2917	0.4138	0.8333	0.2917	0.1667	0.2083	0.2083	0.2083

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1570
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.2700
predicted_AVG	0.2854
predicted_BB	0.5380
predicted_H	0.9330
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.5450
predicted_OBP	0.3851
predicted_R	0.8580
predicted_RBI	0.7020
predicted_SLG	0.8333
predicted_SO	0.7020

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1250	0.1570	0.1458	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.2700	3.1755	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2850	0.2854	0.2853	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6250	0.5380	0.5685	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8200	0.9330	0.8935	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.4800	0.5450	0.5223	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3850	0.3851	0.3851	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7500	0.8580	0.8202	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6200	0.7020	0.6733	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.8330	0.8333	0.8332	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6250	0.7020	0.6750	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.292

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260505_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	668709
playerID	668709
playerName	JJ Bleday
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	CIN
teamID	7

Elly De La Cruz (682829) · BATTER · SS · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 36

All-history rows before 20260506: 36

System season_avg: 0.2750

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2746

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.944	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.944	5.000	0.056	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.252	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.275	0.000	0.225	0.500
predicted_BB	0.472	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.472	0.000	-0.472	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_H	0.960	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	1.083	0.000	0.917	2.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.278	0.000	-0.278	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.354	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.352	0.000	0.148	0.500
predicted_R	0.750	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.750	0.000	0.250	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.490	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.694	0.000	-0.694	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.396	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.528	0.000	-0.028	0.500
predicted_SO	1.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.250	1.000	-1.250	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.944	-
predicted_AVG	0.252	-
predicted_BB	0.472	-
predicted_H	0.960	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.354	-
predicted_R	0.750	-
predicted_RBI	0.490	-
predicted_SLG	0.396	-
predicted_SO	1.250	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.161	-0.006
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.765	-0.179
predicted_AVG	0.252	0.000
predicted_BB	0.540	0.068
predicted_H	0.937	-0.023
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.126	-0.005
predicted_OBP	0.354	-0.000
predicted_R	0.529	-0.221
predicted_RBI	0.478	-0.012
predicted_SLG	0.396	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.165	-0.085

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.94), rates preserved: AVG=0.238 HR/AB=0.032

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=19.0, BvP AVG=0.368)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.944

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	0.2222	0.3333	0.2778	0.2222	0.0000	0.0556	0.1667	0.2778
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	10.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	5.000	6.000	12.000	0.2778	0.3810	0.4722	0.2778	0.0556	0.1944	0.1667	0.3333
season	0.20	36	-	142.000	39.000	6.000	10.000	25.000	27.000	17.000	45.000	0.2746	0.3522	0.5282	0.2747	0.0704	0.1761	0.1197	0.3169

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1580
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.6690
predicted_AVG	0.2521
predicted_BB	0.5770
predicted_H	0.9250
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1230
predicted_OBP	0.3538
predicted_R	0.4100
predicted_RBI	0.4710
predicted_SLG	0.3959
predicted_SO	1.1190

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.1580	0.1612	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9440	3.6690	3.7652	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2520	0.2521	0.2521	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4720	0.5770	0.5403	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9600	0.9250	0.9373	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1230	0.1255	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3540	0.3538	0.3539	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7500	0.4100	0.5290	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4900	0.4710	0.4776	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3960	0.3959	0.3959	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2500	1.1190	1.1648	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.275

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260505_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	682829
playerID	682829
playerName	Elly De La Cruz
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	CIN
teamID	7

Brady Singer (663903) · PITCHER · Starter · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 7

All-history rows before 20260506: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	6.000	6.000	-	Pitching_ER	2.857	4.000	3.143	2.000
predicted_IP	4.000	4.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.486	3.100	-0.486	0.900
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	-	Pitching_SO	2.857	1.000	1.143	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	23.333	15.000	36.000	6.000	10.000	6.000	5.7857	1.8000	0.6429	1.5429	0.2571	0.4286	0.2571
last_10	0.35	7	32.333	20.000	47.000	9.000	20.000	7.000	5.5670	1.7320	0.6186	1.4536	0.2783	0.6186	0.2165
season	0.20	7	32.333	20.000	47.000	9.000	20.000	7.000	5.5670	1.7320	0.6186	1.4536	0.2783	0.6186	0.2165

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.2470
predicted_ER	2.9210
predicted_ERA	5.6654
predicted_H	6.9320
predicted_HR	1.0890
predicted_IP	4.6400
predicted_SO	2.4740
predicted_WHIP	1.7626

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	1.2470	1.5106	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	6.0000	2.9210	3.9986	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.6654	5.6654	form_only
predicted_H	9.0000	6.9320	7.6558	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	1.0890	0.7078	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.0000	4.6400	4.4160	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	4.0000	2.4740	3.0081	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.7626	1.7626	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.0
H	9
R	6
ER	6
BB	2
SO	4
HR	0
BF	23
Pitches	105

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	19
Pitching_ER	4
Pitching_ERA	5.57
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	6
Pitching_H	7
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	3.1
Pitching_Pitches	56
Pitching_R	4
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	35
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260501_CIN@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	663903
playerID	663903
playerName	Brady Singer
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	CIN
teamID	7

Connor Phillips (683175) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 18

All-history rows before 20260506: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.389	1.000	-0.389	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.900	1.100	0.100	-0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.167	2.000	-0.167	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	2.000	5.000	4.000	7.000	0.000	3.0000	1.5000	0.3333	0.8333	0.6667	1.1667	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.333	2.000	6.000	8.000	12.000	0.000	1.7419	1.3548	0.1935	0.5806	0.7742	1.1613	0.0000
season	0.20	17	19.000	5.000	11.000	16.000	21.000	1.000	2.3684	1.4211	0.2632	0.5789	0.8421	1.1053	0.0526

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.8320
predicted_ER	0.3040
predicted_ERA	2.4333
predicted_H	0.7810
predicted_HR	0.0120
predicted_IP	1.1250
predicted_SO	1.2970
predicted_WHIP	1.4334

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.8320	0.5408	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3040	0.1976	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.4333	2.4333	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7810	0.5077	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0120	0.0078	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.1250	1.0813	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.2970	1.1930	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4334	1.4334	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	9

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	3.32
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	3
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	28
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	18
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	683175
playerID	683175
playerName	Connor Phillips
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CIN
teamID	7

Emilio Pagán (641941) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 15

All-history rows before 20260506: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.667	-0.667	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.887	0.113	1.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.733	-0.733	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.667	5.000	8.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	9.6429	1.7143	1.0714	1.7143	0.0000	0.4286	0.2143
last_10	0.35	10	9.667	5.000	9.000	5.000	6.000	1.000	4.6552	1.4483	0.5172	0.9310	0.5172	0.6207	0.1035
season	0.20	14	14.000	10.000	14.000	6.000	11.000	3.000	6.4286	1.4286	0.7143	1.0000	0.4286	0.7857	0.2143

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2560
predicted_ER	0.7720
predicted_ERA	7.2543
predicted_H	1.2430
predicted_HR	0.1680
predicted_IP	0.9580
predicted_SO	0.5440
predicted_WHIP	1.5641

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2560	0.1664	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.7720	0.5018	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	7.2543	7.2543	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.2430	0.8080	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1680	0.1092	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.9580	0.9727	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.5440	0.3536	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5641	1.5641	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	9

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	6.43
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	1
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	641941
playerID	641941
playerName	Emilio Pagán
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CIN
teamID	7

Graham Ashcraft (668933) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 17

All-history rows before 20260506: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.971	1.200	0.029	-0.200
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.118	2.000	-0.118	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.667	0.000	3.000	6.000	5.000	0.0000	1.5882	0.0000	0.5294	1.0588	0.8823
last_10	0.35	10	10.667	0.000	6.000	9.000	8.000	0.0000	1.4062	0.0000	0.5625	0.8438	0.7500
season	0.20	17	17.667	2.000	11.000	12.000	19.000	1.0189	1.3019	0.1132	0.6226	0.6793	1.0755

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.9900
predicted_ER	0.0250
predicted_ERA	0.2038
predicted_H	0.6110
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0910
predicted_SO	0.9540
predicted_WHIP	1.4672

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.9900	1.3435	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.0250	0.0163	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.2038	0.2038	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6110	0.3972	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0910	1.0592	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9540	0.9701	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4672	1.4672	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	2
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	24

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	8
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.02
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.2
Pitching_Pitches	28
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	16
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	668933
playerID	668933
playerName	Graham Ashcraft
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CIN
teamID	7

Tony Santillan (663574) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 16

All-history rows before 20260506: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.312	1.000	-0.312	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.950	1.000	0.050	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	5.000	8.000	3.000	4.000	3.000	9.0000	2.2000	1.0000	1.6000	0.6000	0.8000	0.6000
last_10	0.35	10	9.667	5.000	10.000	4.000	8.000	3.000	4.6552	1.4483	0.5172	1.0345	0.4138	0.8276	0.3103
season	0.20	16	15.667	5.000	11.000	9.000	16.000	3.000	2.8723	1.2766	0.3191	0.7021	0.5745	1.0213	0.1915

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5210
predicted_ER	0.6840
predicted_ERA	6.2538
predicted_H	1.2030
predicted_HR	0.4100
predicted_IP	0.9840
predicted_SO	0.8400
predicted_WHIP	1.7522

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5210	0.3387	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.6840	0.4446	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	6.2538	6.2538	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.2030	0.7820	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.4100	0.2665	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.9840	0.9896	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.8400	0.5460	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.7522	1.7522	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	2.87
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	663574
playerID	663574
playerName	Tony Santillan
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CIN
teamID	7

Home Team: CHC

Nico Hoerner (663538) · BATTER · 2B · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 34

All-history rows before 20260506: 34

System season_avg: 0.2950

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2950

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.265	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.265	0.000	0.735	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.140	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	4.088	3.000	0.912	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.271	0.600	0.600	Hitting_AVG	0.295	0.333	0.305	0.267
predicted_BB	0.441	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.441	2.000	-0.441	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.120	3.000	3.000	Hitting_H	1.206	1.000	1.794	2.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.351	0.600	0.600	Hitting_OBP	0.373	0.600	0.227	0.000
predicted_R	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.600	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	0.794	0.000	1.206	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.206	0.000	-0.206	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.361	0.800	0.800	Hitting_SLG	0.446	0.333	0.354	0.467
predicted_SO	0.412	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.412	0.000	0.588	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.265	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.140	-
predicted_AVG	0.271	-
predicted_BB	0.441	-
predicted_H	1.120	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.351	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.600	-
predicted_SLG	0.361	-
predicted_SO	0.412	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.290	0.025
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.165	0.025
predicted_AVG	0.271	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.442	0.001
predicted_H	1.128	0.008
predicted_HBP	0.148	-
predicted_HR	0.023	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.351	-0.000
predicted_R	0.323	-0.177
predicted_RBI	0.603	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.361	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.244	-0.168

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.16), rates preserved: AVG=0.271 HR/AB=0.005

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, BvP AVG=0.167)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 4.140

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	0.000	0.2857	0.3600	0.3810	0.2857	0.0000	0.1429	0.0952	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	-	42.000	10.000	2.000	0.000	5.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	0.2381	0.3265	0.2857	0.2381	0.0000	0.1191	0.1191	0.0476
season	0.20	34	-	139.000	41.000	9.000	4.000	27.000	17.000	15.000	14.000	0.2950	0.3727	0.4460	0.2950	0.0288	0.1942	0.1079	0.1007

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3030
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.1780
predicted_AVG	0.2709
predicted_BB	0.4430
predicted_H	1.1320
predicted_HBP	0.1480
predicted_HR	0.0240
predicted_OBP	0.3508
predicted_R	0.2270
predicted_RBI	0.6050
predicted_SLG	0.3606
predicted_SO	0.1540

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2650	0.3030	0.2897	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1400	4.1780	4.1647	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2710	0.2709	0.2709	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4410	0.4430	0.4423	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1200	1.1320	1.1278	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1480	0.1480	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0240	0.0226	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3510	0.3508	0.3509	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.2270	0.3226	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6000	0.6050	0.6032	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3610	0.3606	0.3607	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4120	0.1540	0.2443	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	3
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.295

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260505_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	663538
playerID	663538
playerName	Nico Hoerner
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	CHC
teamID	5

Moisés Ballesteros (694208) · BATTER · DH · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 25

All-history rows before 20260506: 25

System season_avg: 0.2860

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2857

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.080	0.000	-0.080	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.080	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.080	3.000	-0.080	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.169	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.286	0.000	0.048	0.333
predicted_BB	0.360	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.360	1.000	0.640	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.880	0.000	0.120	1.000
predicted_HR	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.240	0.000	-0.240	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.271	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.356	0.250	0.144	0.250
predicted_R	0.520	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.520	0.000	0.480	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.450	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.640	0.000	0.360	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.393	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.545	0.000	-0.212	0.333
predicted_SO	0.520	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.520	0.000	-0.520	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.080	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.080	-
predicted_AVG	0.169	-
predicted_BB	0.360	-
predicted_H	0.500	-
predicted_HR	0.200	-
predicted_OBP	0.271	-
predicted_R	0.520	-
predicted_RBI	0.450	-
predicted_SLG	0.393	-
predicted_SO	0.520	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.084	0.004
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.454	0.374
predicted_AVG	0.169	0.000
predicted_BB	0.460	0.100
predicted_H	0.577	0.077
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.229	0.029
predicted_OBP	0.271	0.000
predicted_R	0.506	-0.014
predicted_RBI	0.522	0.072
predicted_SLG	0.393	0.000
predicted_SO	0.541	0.021

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.45), rates preserved: AVG=0.167 HR/AB=0.066

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 25

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	0.1053	0.2273	0.2632	0.1053	0.0526	0.1053	0.1579	0.1579
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	7.000	2.000	3.000	7.000	6.000	5.000	5.000	0.1842	0.2791	0.4737	0.1842	0.0790	0.1842	0.1316	0.1316
season	0.20	25	-	77.000	22.000	2.000	6.000	16.000	13.000	9.000	13.000	0.2857	0.3563	0.5455	0.2857	0.0779	0.2078	0.1169	0.1688

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0860
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.6560
predicted_AVG	0.1690
predicted_BB	0.5140
predicted_H	0.6180
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.2450
predicted_OBP	0.2712
predicted_R	0.4990
predicted_RBI	0.5610
predicted_SLG	0.3933
predicted_SO	0.5520

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0800	0.0860	0.0839	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0800	3.6560	3.4544	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1690	0.1690	0.1690	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3600	0.5140	0.4601	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5000	0.6180	0.5767	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2000	0.2450	0.2293	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2710	0.2712	0.2711	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5200	0.4990	0.5064	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4500	0.5610	0.5222	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3930	0.3933	0.3932	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5200	0.5520	0.5408	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	25
Season rows before report date	25
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	25
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.286

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260504_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	694208
playerID	694208
playerName	Moisés Ballesteros
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	CHC
teamID	5

Dansby Swanson (621020) · BATTER · SS · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 34

All-history rows before 20260506: 34

System season_avg: 0.1980

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1983

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.029	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_3B	0.029	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_AB	3.412	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.412	5.000	-0.412	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.194	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.198	0.200	0.135	0.133
predicted_BB	0.618	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.618	0.000	0.382	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.540	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.676	1.000	0.324	0.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.176	0.000	-0.176	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.254	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.319	0.200	0.181	0.300
predicted_R	0.735	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.735	1.000	0.265	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.350	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.647	0.000	0.353	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.276	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.379	0.200	-0.046	0.133
predicted_SO	0.882	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.882	0.000	-0.882	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.029	-
predicted_3B	0.029	-
predicted_AB	3.412	-
predicted_AVG	0.194	-
predicted_BB	0.618	-
predicted_H	0.540	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.254	-
predicted_R	0.735	-
predicted_RBI	0.350	-
predicted_SLG	0.276	-
predicted_SO	0.882	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.014	-0.015
predicted_3B	0.037	0.008
predicted_AB	3.614	0.202
predicted_AVG	0.194	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.405	-0.213
predicted_H	0.658	0.118
predicted_HBP	0.041	-
predicted_HR	0.065	0.015
predicted_OBP	0.254	-0.000
predicted_R	0.588	-0.147
predicted_RBI	0.427	0.077
predicted_SLG	0.276	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.682	-0.200

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.61), rates preserved: AVG=0.182 HR/AB=0.018

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, BvP AVG=0.400)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	0.1579	0.2000	0.1579	0.1579	0.0000	0.0526	0.0526	0.1053
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	9.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	5.000	2.000	6.000	0.2368	0.2857	0.3684	0.2368	0.0263	0.1842	0.0526	0.1579
season	0.20	34	-	116.000	23.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	22.000	25.000	21.000	30.000	0.1983	0.3191	0.3793	0.1983	0.0517	0.1897	0.1810	0.2586

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0060
predicted_3B	0.0410
predicted_AB	3.7220
predicted_AVG	0.1936
predicted_BB	0.2910
predicted_H	0.7210
predicted_HBP	0.0410
predicted_HR	0.0730
predicted_OBP	0.2538
predicted_R	0.5080
predicted_RBI	0.4690
predicted_SLG	0.2759
predicted_SO	0.5750

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0290	0.0060	0.0140	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0290	0.0410	0.0368	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4120	3.7220	3.6135	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1940	0.1936	0.1937	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6180	0.2910	0.4054	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5400	0.7210	0.6577	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0410	0.0410	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0730	0.0649	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2540	0.2538	0.2539	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7350	0.5080	0.5875	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3500	0.4690	0.4274	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2760	0.2759	0.2759	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8820	0.5750	0.6825	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.198

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260505_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	621020
playerID	621020
playerName	Dansby Swanson
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	CHC
teamID	5

Pete Crow-Armstrong (691718) · BATTER · CF · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 35

All-history rows before 20260506: 35

System season_avg: 0.2410

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2406

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.114	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.114	0.000	-0.114	0.000
predicted_3B	0.057	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.057	0.000	-0.057	0.000
predicted_AB	3.800	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.800	4.000	0.200	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.218	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.241	0.250	0.009	0.000
predicted_BB	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.086	0.000	-0.086	0.000
predicted_H	0.690	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.914	1.000	0.086	0.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.086	0.000	-0.086	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.276	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.303	0.250	-0.053	0.000
predicted_R	0.629	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.629	1.000	0.371	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.240	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.371	0.000	0.629	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.200	1.000	-0.200	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.400	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.368	0.250	-0.118	0.000
predicted_SO	1.114	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.114	1.000	-1.114	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.114	-
predicted_3B	0.057	-
predicted_AB	3.800	-
predicted_AVG	0.218	-
predicted_BB	0.286	-
predicted_H	0.690	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.276	-
predicted_R	0.629	-
predicted_RBI	0.240	-
predicted_SLG	0.400	-
predicted_SO	1.114	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.135	0.021
predicted_3B	0.108	0.051
predicted_AB	3.777	-0.023
predicted_AVG	0.218	0.000
predicted_BB	0.287	0.001
predicted_H	0.776	0.086
predicted_HBP	0.011	-
predicted_HR	0.082	0.012
predicted_OBP	0.276	-0.000
predicted_R	0.614	-0.015
predicted_RBI	0.271	0.031
predicted_SLG	0.400	0.000
predicted_SO	0.962	-0.152

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.80), rates preserved: AVG=0.204 HR/AB=0.021

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	0.2105	0.2500	0.3684	0.2105	0.0000	0.0000	0.0526	0.1579
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	6.000	4.000	11.000	0.2162	0.2927	0.4595	0.2162	0.0541	0.1622	0.1081	0.2973
season	0.20	35	-	133.000	32.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	13.000	22.000	10.000	39.000	0.2406	0.3034	0.3684	0.2406	0.0226	0.0977	0.0752	0.2932

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1470
predicted_3B	0.1360
predicted_AB	3.7650
predicted_AVG	0.2185
predicted_BB	0.2880
predicted_H	0.8230
predicted_HBP	0.0110
predicted_HR	0.0880
predicted_OBP	0.2756
predicted_R	0.6060
predicted_RBI	0.2870
predicted_SLG	0.4003
predicted_SO	0.8800

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1140	0.1470	0.1354	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0570	0.1360	0.1084	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8000	3.7650	3.7773	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2180	0.2185	0.2183	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2860	0.2880	0.2873	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6900	0.8230	0.7764	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0110	0.0110	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0880	0.0817	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2760	0.2756	0.2757	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6290	0.6060	0.6140	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2400	0.2870	0.2705	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4000	0.4003	0.4002	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1140	0.8800	0.9619	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.241

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260505_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	691718
playerID	691718
playerName	Pete Crow-Armstrong
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	CHC
teamID	5

Michael Busch (683737) · BATTER · 1B · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 34

All-history rows before 20260506: 34

System season_avg: 0.2230

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2231

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.206	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.206	0.000	-0.206	0.000
predicted_3B	0.029	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_AB	3.824	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.824	4.000	-0.824	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.356	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.223	0.750	0.110	-0.417
predicted_BB	0.559	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.559	1.000	0.441	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.180	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.853	3.000	0.147	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.088	1.000	-0.088	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.463	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.327	0.800	0.173	-0.300
predicted_R	0.471	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.471	1.000	-0.471	-1.000
predicted_RBI	1.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.529	2.000	-0.529	-2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.686	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.362	1.500	-0.028	-1.167
predicted_SO	1.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.206	-
predicted_3B	0.029	-
predicted_AB	3.824	-
predicted_AVG	0.356	-
predicted_BB	0.559	-
predicted_H	1.180	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.463	-
predicted_R	0.471	-
predicted_RBI	1.090	-
predicted_SLG	0.686	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.370	0.164
predicted_3B	0.097	0.068
predicted_AB	3.626	-0.198
predicted_AVG	0.356	0.000
predicted_BB	0.688	0.129
predicted_H	1.228	0.048
predicted_HBP	0.081	-
predicted_HR	0.143	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.463	0.000
predicted_R	0.411	-0.060
predicted_RBI	1.135	0.045
predicted_SLG	0.686	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.941	-0.059

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.82), rates preserved: AVG=0.321 HR/AB=0.037

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.824

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	8.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	8.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	0.4706	0.5455	0.9412	0.4706	0.0588	0.4706	0.2353	0.2353
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	10.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	9.000	3.000	8.000	10.000	0.2857	0.4348	0.5429	0.2857	0.0286	0.2571	0.2286	0.2857
season	0.20	34	-	130.000	29.000	7.000	1.000	3.000	18.000	16.000	19.000	34.000	0.2231	0.3268	0.3615	0.2231	0.0231	0.1385	0.1462	0.2615

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.4580
predicted_3B	0.1340
predicted_AB	3.5200
predicted_AVG	0.3564
predicted_BB	0.7570
predicted_H	1.2540
predicted_HBP	0.0810
predicted_HR	0.1450
predicted_OBP	0.4630
predicted_R	0.3790
predicted_RBI	1.1600
predicted_SLG	0.6859
predicted_SO	0.9090

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2060	0.4580	0.3698	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0290	0.1340	0.0973	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8240	3.5200	3.6264	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3560	0.3564	0.3563	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5590	0.7570	0.6877	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1800	1.2540	1.2281	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0810	0.0810	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1450	0.1432	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4630	0.4630	0.4630	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4710	0.3790	0.4112	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	1.0900	1.1600	1.1355	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6860	0.6859	0.6859	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9090	0.9408	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.223

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.75
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	6
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260505_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	683737
playerID	683737
playerName	Michael Busch
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	CHC
teamID	5

Alex Bregman (608324) · BATTER · 3B · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 35

All-history rows before 20260506: 35

System season_avg: 0.2340

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2340

Diff (system - data): -0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_3B	0.029	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_AB	4.029	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.029	4.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.175	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.234	0.250	-0.234	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.571	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.571	1.000	-0.571	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.680	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.943	1.000	-0.943	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.086	0.000	-0.086	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.298	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.331	0.400	-0.331	-0.400
predicted_R	0.343	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.343	0.000	-0.343	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.343	1.000	-0.343	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.292	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.348	0.250	-0.348	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.686	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.686	0.000	1.314	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.029	-
predicted_AB	4.029	-
predicted_AVG	0.175	-
predicted_BB	0.571	-
predicted_H	0.680	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.298	-
predicted_R	0.343	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.292	-
predicted_SO	0.686	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.232	0.089
predicted_3B	0.013	-0.016
predicted_AB	3.887	-0.142
predicted_AVG	0.175	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.610	0.039
predicted_H	0.670	-0.010
predicted_HBP	0.041	-
predicted_HR	0.051	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.298	-0.000
predicted_R	0.456	0.112
predicted_RBI	0.356	-0.004
predicted_SLG	0.292	0.000
predicted_SO	0.665	-0.021

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.03), rates preserved: AVG=0.166 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 4.029

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	3.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	3.000	0.1579	0.2727	0.2632	0.1579	0.0000	0.1053	0.1579	0.1579
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	7.000	7.000	0.1622	0.3111	0.2973	0.1622	0.0270	0.0811	0.1892	0.1892
season	0.20	35	-	141.000	33.000	5.000	1.000	3.000	12.000	12.000	20.000	24.000	0.2340	0.3313	0.3475	0.2340	0.0213	0.0851	0.1418	0.1702

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2800
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.8110
predicted_AVG	0.1746
predicted_BB	0.6310
predicted_H	0.6650
predicted_HBP	0.0410
predicted_HR	0.0520
predicted_OBP	0.2979
predicted_R	0.5160
predicted_RBI	0.3540
predicted_SLG	0.2920
predicted_SO	0.6530

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.2800	0.2321	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0290	0.0050	0.0134	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0290	3.8110	3.8873	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1750	0.1746	0.1747	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5710	0.6310	0.6100	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6800	0.6650	0.6703	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0410	0.0410	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0520	0.0513	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2980	0.2979	0.2979	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3430	0.5160	0.4555	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.3540	0.3561	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2920	0.2920	0.2920	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6860	0.6530	0.6646	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.234

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH-3B
gameID	20260505_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	608324
playerID	608324
playerName	Alex Bregman
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	CHC
teamID	5

Seiya Suzuki (673548) · BATTER · RF · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 21

All-history rows before 20260506: 21

System season_avg: 0.3120

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3125

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.095	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.095	0.000	-0.095	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.810	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.810	4.000	-0.810	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.264	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.312	0.000	0.021	0.333
predicted_BB	0.571	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.571	1.000	0.429	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.940	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.190	0.000	-0.190	1.000
predicted_HR	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.347	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.411	0.200	0.089	0.300
predicted_R	0.762	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.762	0.000	0.238	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.670	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.619	0.000	-0.619	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.506	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.562	0.000	-0.229	0.333
predicted_SO	1.000	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.095	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.810	-
predicted_AVG	0.264	-
predicted_BB	0.571	-
predicted_H	0.940	-
predicted_HR	0.240	-
predicted_OBP	0.347	-
predicted_R	0.762	-
predicted_RBI	0.670	-
predicted_SLG	0.506	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.128	0.033
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.746	-0.064
predicted_AVG	0.264	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.542	-0.029
predicted_H	0.965	0.025
predicted_HBP	0.019	-
predicted_HR	0.247	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.347	0.000
predicted_R	0.617	-0.145
predicted_RBI	0.688	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.506	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.940	-0.060

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.81), rates preserved: AVG=0.253 HR/AB=0.065

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 3.810

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	0.2222	0.3182	0.4444	0.2222	0.0556	0.2222	0.1667	0.2222
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	11.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	6.000	4.000	10.000	0.2895	0.3488	0.5526	0.2895	0.0790	0.1579	0.1053	0.2632
season	0.20	21	-	80.000	25.000	2.000	6.000	13.000	16.000	12.000	21.000	0.3125	0.4105	0.5625	0.3125	0.0750	0.1625	0.1500	0.2625

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1460
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7120
predicted_AVG	0.2638
predicted_BB	0.5270
predicted_H	0.9790
predicted_HBP	0.0190
predicted_HR	0.2510
predicted_OBP	0.3474
predicted_R	0.5390
predicted_RBI	0.6970
predicted_SLG	0.5059
predicted_SO	0.9080

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0950	0.1460	0.1281	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8100	3.7120	3.7463	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2640	0.2638	0.2639	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5710	0.5270	0.5424	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9400	0.9790	0.9653	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0190	0.0190	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2400	0.2510	0.2472	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3470	0.3474	0.3473	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7620	0.5390	0.6171	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6700	0.6970	0.6875	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5060	0.5059	0.5059	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9080	0.9402	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.312

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260505_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	673548
playerID	673548
playerName	Seiya Suzuki
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	CHC
teamID	5

Ian Happ (664023) · BATTER · LF · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 34

All-history rows before 20260506: 34

System season_avg: 0.2340

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2344

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.176	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.176	0.000	-0.176	0.000
predicted_3B	0.029	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_AB	3.765	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.765	4.000	0.235	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.233	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.234	0.000	-0.234	0.000
predicted_BB	0.765	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.765	1.000	-0.765	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.840	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.882	0.000	-0.882	0.000
predicted_HR	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.235	0.000	-0.235	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.443	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.372	0.200	-0.372	-0.200
predicted_R	0.765	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.765	0.000	-0.765	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.441	0.000	-0.441	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.539	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.484	0.000	-0.484	0.000
predicted_SO	1.353	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.353	3.000	-0.353	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.176	-
predicted_3B	0.029	-
predicted_AB	3.765	-
predicted_AVG	0.233	-
predicted_BB	0.765	-
predicted_H	0.840	-
predicted_HR	0.190	-
predicted_OBP	0.443	-
predicted_R	0.765	-
predicted_RBI	0.230	-
predicted_SLG	0.539	-
predicted_SO	1.353	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.190	0.014
predicted_3B	0.099	0.070
predicted_AB	3.413	-0.352
predicted_AVG	0.233	-0.000
predicted_BB	1.045	0.280
predicted_H	0.781	-0.059
predicted_HBP	0.045	-
predicted_HR	0.178	-0.012
predicted_OBP	0.443	-0.000
predicted_R	0.913	0.148
predicted_RBI	0.215	-0.015
predicted_SLG	0.539	0.000
predicted_SO	1.362	0.009

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.77), rates preserved: AVG=0.207 HR/AB=0.047

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, BvP AVG=0.167)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	7.000	7.000	0.2667	0.5000	0.6667	0.2667	0.0667	0.0667	0.4667	0.4667
last_10	0.35	10	-	32.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	8.000	11.000	13.000	0.1875	0.4091	0.4062	0.1875	0.0312	0.0312	0.3438	0.4062
season	0.20	34	-	128.000	30.000	6.000	1.000	8.000	15.000	26.000	26.000	46.000	0.2344	0.3718	0.4844	0.2344	0.0625	0.1172	0.2031	0.3594

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1970
predicted_3B	0.1370
predicted_AB	3.2230
predicted_AVG	0.2325
predicted_BB	1.1960
predicted_H	0.7490
predicted_HBP	0.0450
predicted_HR	0.1720
predicted_OBP	0.4425
predicted_R	0.9930
predicted_RBI	0.2070
predicted_SLG	0.5391
predicted_SO	1.3670

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1760	0.1970	0.1896	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0290	0.1370	0.0992	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7650	3.2230	3.4127	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2330	0.2325	0.2327	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7650	1.1960	1.0452	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8400	0.7490	0.7809	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0450	0.0450	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1900	0.1720	0.1783	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4430	0.4425	0.4427	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7650	0.9930	0.9132	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2300	0.2070	0.2151	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5390	0.5391	0.5391	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3530	1.3670	1.3621	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.234

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260505_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	664023
playerID	664023
playerName	Ian Happ
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	CHC
teamID	5

Carson Kelly (608348) · BATTER · C · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 22

All-history rows before 20260506: 22

System season_avg: 0.3010

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3012

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.773	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.773	3.000	0.227	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.291	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.301	0.000	-0.051	0.250
predicted_BB	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.920	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.136	0.000	-0.136	1.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.045	0.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.347	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.389	0.250	-0.139	0.000
predicted_R	0.545	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.545	0.000	0.455	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.370	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.409	0.000	0.591	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.317	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.386	0.000	-0.136	0.250
predicted_SO	0.727	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.727	1.000	-0.727	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.773	-
predicted_AVG	0.291	-
predicted_BB	0.500	-
predicted_H	0.920	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.347	-
predicted_R	0.545	-
predicted_RBI	0.370	-
predicted_SLG	0.317	-
predicted_SO	0.727	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	-0.071
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.891	0.118
predicted_AVG	0.291	0.000
predicted_BB	0.369	-0.131
predicted_H	1.071	0.151
predicted_HBP	0.044	-
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.347	0.000
predicted_R	0.493	-0.052
predicted_RBI	0.426	0.056
predicted_SLG	0.317	0.000
predicted_SO	0.649	-0.078

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.89), rates preserved: AVG=0.275 HR/AB=0.003

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	0.3000	0.3333	0.3000	0.3000	0.0000	0.1500	0.0500	0.1000
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	11.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	5.000	3.000	8.000	0.2750	0.3409	0.3000	0.2750	0.0000	0.0750	0.0750	0.2000
season	0.20	22	-	83.000	25.000	4.000	1.000	9.000	12.000	11.000	16.000	0.3012	0.3895	0.3855	0.3012	0.0120	0.1084	0.1325	0.1928

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0730
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.9550
predicted_AVG	0.2915
predicted_BB	0.2980
predicted_H	1.1530
predicted_HBP	0.0440
predicted_HR	0.0100
predicted_OBP	0.3472
predicted_R	0.4650
predicted_RBI	0.4560
predicted_SLG	0.3171
predicted_SO	0.6070

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1820	0.0730	0.1111	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7730	3.9550	3.8913	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2910	0.2915	0.2913	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5000	0.2980	0.3687	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9200	1.1530	1.0715	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0440	0.0440	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0100	0.0100	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3470	0.3472	0.3471	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5450	0.4650	0.4930	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3700	0.4560	0.4259	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3170	0.3171	0.3171	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7270	0.6070	0.6490	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.301

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260504_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	608348
playerID	608348
playerName	Carson Kelly
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	CHC
teamID	5

Colin Rea (607067) · PITCHER · Starter · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 7

All-history rows before 20260506: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_ER	2.286	2.000	0.714	1.000
predicted_IP	5.000	5.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.500	5.100	0.500	-0.100
predicted_SO	6.000	6.000	-	Pitching_SO	4.286	6.000	1.714	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 5.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	26.333	13.000	26.000	8.000	22.000	2.000	4.4430	1.2911	0.4937	0.9873	0.3038	0.8354	0.0760
last_10	0.35	7	32.667	16.000	34.000	9.000	30.000	3.000	4.4082	1.3163	0.4898	1.0408	0.2755	0.9184	0.0918
season	0.20	7	32.667	16.000	34.000	9.000	30.000	3.000	4.4082	1.3163	0.4898	1.0408	0.2755	0.9184	0.0918

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.4230
predicted_ER	2.4270
predicted_ERA	4.4239
predicted_H	5.0190
predicted_HR	0.4180
predicted_IP	4.9370
predicted_SO	4.3490
predicted_WHIP	1.3050

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	1.4230	0.9250	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	2.4270	2.6275	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.4239	4.4239	form_only
predicted_H	6.0000	5.0190	5.3623	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.4180	0.6217	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.0000	4.9370	4.9591	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	6.0000	4.3490	4.9268	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3050	1.3050	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.0
H	6
R	3
ER	3
BB	0
SO	6
HR	1
BF	21
Pitches	74

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	25
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	4.41
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	8
Pitching_H	8
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.1
Pitching_Pitches	102
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	6
Pitching_Strikes	71
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260501_ARI@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	607067
playerID	607067
playerName	Colin Rea
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	CHC
teamID	5

Ben Brown (676962) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 12

All-history rows before 20260506: 12

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	2.042	1.000	-1.042	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	2.000	1.000	-1.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	9.000	1.000	6.000	2.000	9.000	0.000	1.0000	0.8889	0.1111	0.6667	0.2222	1.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	19.000	4.000	14.000	6.000	16.000	0.000	1.8947	1.0526	0.2105	0.7368	0.3158	0.8421	0.0000
season	0.20	12	25.667	6.000	18.000	8.000	24.000	1.000	2.1039	1.0130	0.2338	0.7013	0.3117	0.9351	0.0390

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5190
predicted_ER	0.3240
predicted_ERA	1.5339
predicted_H	1.3280
predicted_HR	0.0150
predicted_IP	1.9030
predicted_SO	1.7730
predicted_WHIP	0.9710

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5190	0.3374	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3240	0.2106	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.5339	1.5339	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.3280	0.8632	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0150	0.0097	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.9030	1.5869	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.7730	1.5025	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9710	0.9710	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	2.10
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	25
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	676962
playerID	676962
playerName	Ben Brown
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHC
teamID	5

Hoby Milner (571948) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 18

All-history rows before 20260506: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.783	0.200	0.217	0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.278	0.000	0.722	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.333	1.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	2.0769	0.6923	0.2308	0.4615	0.2308	0.4615	0.2308
last_10	0.35	10	9.333	2.000	4.000	5.000	4.000	1.000	1.9286	0.9643	0.2143	0.4286	0.5357	0.4286	0.1071
season	0.20	17	16.667	4.000	11.000	5.000	5.000	2.000	2.1600	0.9600	0.2400	0.6600	0.3000	0.3000	0.1200

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3210
predicted_ER	0.2070
predicted_ERA	2.0416
predicted_H	0.4470
predicted_HR	0.1510
predicted_IP	0.9130
predicted_SO	0.3810
predicted_WHIP	0.8410

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3210	0.2087	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2070	0.1346	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.0416	2.0416	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.4470	0.6405	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1510	0.0982	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.9130	0.9435	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.3810	0.5977	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.8410	0.8410	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.16
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	6
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	571948
playerID	571948
playerName	Hoby Milner
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHC
teamID	5

Jacob Webb (657097) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 15

All-history rows before 20260506: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.787	1.000	0.213	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.067	1.000	-1.067	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.667	1.000	4.000	2.000	6.000	1.000	1.9286	1.2857	0.2143	0.8571	0.4286	1.2857	0.2143
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	3.000	11.000	2.000	12.000	1.000	3.0000	1.4444	0.3333	1.2222	0.2222	1.3333	0.1111
season	0.20	15	13.667	6.000	16.000	7.000	16.000	3.000	3.9512	1.6829	0.4390	1.1707	0.5122	1.1707	0.2195

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3420
predicted_ER	0.2760
predicted_ERA	2.7081
predicted_H	0.9610
predicted_HR	0.1640
predicted_IP	0.9170
predicted_SO	1.1730
predicted_WHIP	1.4207

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3420	0.2223	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2760	0.1794	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.7081	2.7081	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9610	0.6247	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1640	0.1066	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.9170	0.9461	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.1730	0.7625	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4207	1.4207	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	8

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.95
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	657097
playerID	657097
playerName	Jacob Webb
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHC
teamID	5

Phil Maton (664208) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 9

All-history rows before 20260506: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.889	0.000	0.111	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.633	0.100	0.367	0.900
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.111	0.000	0.889	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	4.000	7.000	1.000	6.000	0.000	9.0000	2.0000	1.0000	1.7500	0.2500	1.5000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	9	7.333	8.000	10.000	5.000	10.000	1.000	9.8182	2.0455	1.0909	1.3636	0.6818	1.3636	0.1364
season	0.20	9	7.333	8.000	10.000	5.000	10.000	1.000	9.8182	2.0455	1.0909	1.3636	0.6818	1.3636	0.1364

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3940
predicted_ER	0.8490
predicted_ERA	9.4500
predicted_H	1.2430
predicted_HR	0.0610
predicted_IP	0.8080
predicted_SO	1.1520
predicted_WHIP	2.0250

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3940	0.2561	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.8490	0.9018	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	9.4500	9.4500	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	1.2430	1.5080	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0610	0.0396	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.8080	0.8752	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.1520	1.4488	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	2.0250	2.0250	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	24

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	1
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	9.82
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	4
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	2
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	664208
playerID	664208
playerName	Phil Maton
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHC
teamID	5

20260506_CLE@KC

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 3, "confidence": 0.53125, "home_win_probability": 0.46875, "away_win_probability": 0.53125, "predicted_score_text": "CLE 6 - 3 KC", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to final winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "predicted_score_text": "CLE 6 - 5 KC", "confidence": 0.53125, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score", "final_prediction_synced": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "CLE 6 - 5 KC", "winner": "CLE"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "CLE 6 - 3 KC", "winner": "CLE"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": -2, "total_run_delta": -2, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"}}

Away Team: CLE

Brayan Rocchio (677587) · BATTER · SS · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 35

All-history rows before 20260506: 35

System season_avg: 0.2610

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2609

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.114	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.114	0.000	-0.114	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.286	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.286	3.000	0.714	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.250	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.261	0.000	0.239	0.500
predicted_BB	0.314	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.314	0.000	0.686	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.057	0.000	-0.057	0.000
predicted_H	0.690	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.857	0.000	1.143	2.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.086	0.000	-0.086	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.288	0.600	0.600	Hitting_OBP	0.336	0.000	0.264	0.600
predicted_R	0.400	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.400	0.000	0.600	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.320	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.543	0.000	0.457	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.086	0.000	-0.086	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.304	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.374	0.000	0.126	0.500
predicted_SO	0.343	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.343	1.000	-0.343	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.114	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.286	-
predicted_AVG	0.250	-
predicted_BB	0.314	-
predicted_H	0.690	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.288	-
predicted_R	0.400	-
predicted_RBI	0.320	-
predicted_SLG	0.304	-
predicted_SO	0.343	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.135	0.021
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.589	0.303
predicted_AVG	0.250	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.235	-0.079
predicted_H	0.851	0.161
predicted_HBP	0.013	-
predicted_HR	0.017	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.288	-0.000
predicted_R	0.457	0.057
predicted_RBI	0.395	0.075
predicted_SLG	0.304	0.000
predicted_SO	0.272	-0.071

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.59), rates preserved: AVG=0.237 HR/AB=0.005

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	0.2500	0.2857	0.3000	0.2500	0.0000	0.1000	0.0500	0.0500
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	9.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	0.2432	0.2632	0.2703	0.2432	0.0000	0.1081	0.0270	0.0541
season	0.20	35	-	115.000	30.000	4.000	3.000	19.000	14.000	11.000	12.000	0.2609	0.3359	0.3739	0.2609	0.0261	0.1652	0.0956	0.1043

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1460
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7520
predicted_AVG	0.2498
predicted_BB	0.1920
predicted_H	0.9370
predicted_HBP	0.0130
predicted_HR	0.0200
predicted_OBP	0.2879
predicted_R	0.4870
predicted_RBI	0.4350
predicted_SLG	0.3044
predicted_SO	0.2340

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1140	0.1460	0.1348	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2860	3.7520	3.5889	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2500	0.2498	0.2499	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3140	0.1920	0.2347	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6900	0.9370	0.8506	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0130	0.0130	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0200	0.0165	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2880	0.2879	0.2879	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4000	0.4870	0.4566	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3200	0.4350	0.3947	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3040	0.3044	0.3043	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3430	0.2340	0.2722	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.261

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260504_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	677587
playerID	677587
playerName	Brayan Rocchio
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	CLE
teamID	8

Daniel Schneemann (682177) · BATTER · 2B · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 25

All-history rows before 20260506: 25

System season_avg: 0.2870

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2874

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.280	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.280	0.000	0.720	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.480	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.480	4.000	0.520	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.218	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.287	0.250	-0.037	0.000
predicted_BB	0.320	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.320	0.000	0.680	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.080	0.000	-0.080	0.000
predicted_H	0.660	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.160	0.000	-0.160	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.243	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.347	0.250	0.053	0.150
predicted_R	0.440	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.440	0.000	0.560	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.170	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.480	0.000	0.520	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.080	0.000	-0.080	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.328	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.506	0.250	-0.006	0.250
predicted_SO	1.120	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.120	1.000	0.880	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.280	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.480	-
predicted_AVG	0.218	-
predicted_BB	0.320	-
predicted_H	0.660	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.243	-
predicted_R	0.440	-
predicted_RBI	0.170	-
predicted_SLG	0.328	-
predicted_SO	1.120	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.158	-0.122
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.565	0.085
predicted_AVG	0.218	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.200	-0.120
predicted_H	0.742	0.082
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.098	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.243	0.000
predicted_R	0.258	-0.182
predicted_RBI	0.191	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.328	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.206	0.086

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.57), rates preserved: AVG=0.208 HR/AB=0.027

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 25

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	6.000	0.1667	0.1667	0.1667	0.1667	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	9.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	14.000	0.2432	0.2821	0.4324	0.2432	0.0541	0.0811	0.0541	0.3784
season	0.20	25	-	87.000	25.000	7.000	4.000	12.000	11.000	8.000	28.000	0.2874	0.3474	0.5057	0.2874	0.0460	0.1379	0.0920	0.3218

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0920
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.6110
predicted_AVG	0.2176
predicted_BB	0.1350
predicted_H	0.7860
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1020
predicted_OBP	0.2432
predicted_R	0.1600
predicted_RBI	0.2020
predicted_SLG	0.3275
predicted_SO	1.2520

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2800	0.0920	0.1578	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4800	3.6110	3.5652	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2180	0.2176	0.2177	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3200	0.1350	0.1997	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6600	0.7860	0.7419	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.1020	0.0978	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2430	0.2432	0.2431	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4400	0.1600	0.2580	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1700	0.2020	0.1908	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3280	0.3275	0.3277	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1200	1.2520	1.2058	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	25
Season rows before report date	25
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	25
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.287

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260505_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	682177
playerID	682177
playerName	Daniel Schneemann
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	CLE
teamID	8

Austin Hedges (595978) · BATTER · C · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 14

All-history rows before 20260506: 14

System season_avg: 0.3100

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3095

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.308	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.231	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	2.000	1.000	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.345	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.310	0.000	0.190	0.500
predicted_BB	0.231	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.214	0.000	-0.214	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.860	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.929	0.000	1.071	2.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.390	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.348	0.000	0.152	0.500
predicted_R	0.769	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.714	0.000	0.286	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.170	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	0.214	0.000	1.786	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.596	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.476	0.000	0.024	0.500
predicted_SO	0.769	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.714	1.000	0.286	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.308	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.231	-
predicted_AVG	0.345	-
predicted_BB	0.231	-
predicted_H	0.860	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.390	-
predicted_R	0.769	-
predicted_RBI	0.170	-
predicted_SLG	0.596	-
predicted_SO	0.769	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.314	0.006
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.075	-0.156
predicted_AVG	0.345	0.000
predicted_BB	0.237	0.006
predicted_H	0.972	0.112
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.136	0.016
predicted_OBP	0.390	-0.000
predicted_R	0.765	-0.004
predicted_RBI	0.193	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.596	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.747	-0.022

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.23), rates preserved: AVG=0.301 HR/AB=0.042

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, BvP AVG=0.600)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	3.000	0.4286	0.4667	0.7857	0.4286	0.0714	0.0714	0.0714	0.2143
last_10	0.35	10	-	31.000	8.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	3.000	9.000	0.2581	0.3143	0.4194	0.2581	0.0323	0.0645	0.0968	0.2903
season	0.20	13	-	42.000	13.000	4.000	1.000	3.000	10.000	3.000	10.000	0.3095	0.3478	0.4762	0.3095	0.0238	0.0714	0.0714	0.2381

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3170
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.9910
predicted_AVG	0.3451
predicted_BB	0.2400
predicted_H	1.0320
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1440
predicted_OBP	0.3896
predicted_R	0.7630
predicted_RBI	0.2060
predicted_SLG	0.5956
predicted_SO	0.7350

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3080	0.3170	0.3139	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2310	2.9910	3.0750	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3450	0.3451	0.3451	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2310	0.2400	0.2369	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8600	1.0320	0.9718	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1440	0.1356	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3900	0.3896	0.3897	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7690	0.7630	0.7651	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1700	0.2060	0.1934	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5960	0.5956	0.5957	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7690	0.7350	0.7469	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.31

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260503_CLE@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	595978
playerID	595978
playerName	Austin Hedges
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	CLE
teamID	8

David Fry (681807) · BATTER · RF · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 13

All-history rows before 20260506: 13

System season_avg: 0.3060

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3056

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.077	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.077	0.000	0.923	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.769	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.769	3.000	0.231	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.300	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.306	0.667	0.028	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.615	2.000	2.000	Hitting_BB	0.615	0.000	1.385	2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.780	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.846	2.000	0.154	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.410	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.231	1.000	-0.231	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.427	0.600	0.600	Hitting_OBP	0.432	0.667	0.168	-0.067
predicted_R	0.692	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.692	1.000	0.308	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.680	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.385	2.000	0.615	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.779	0.667	0.667	Hitting_SLG	0.583	1.667	0.083	-1.000
predicted_SO	1.154	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.154	0.000	-1.154	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.077	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.769	-
predicted_AVG	0.300	-
predicted_BB	0.615	-
predicted_H	0.780	-
predicted_HR	0.410	-
predicted_OBP	0.427	-
predicted_R	0.692	-
predicted_RBI	0.680	-
predicted_SLG	0.779	-
predicted_SO	1.154	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.037	-0.040
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.727	-0.042
predicted_AVG	0.300	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.608	-0.007
predicted_H	0.799	0.019
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.421	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.427	0.000
predicted_R	0.771	0.079
predicted_RBI	0.701	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.779	0.000
predicted_SO	1.035	-0.119

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.77), rates preserved: AVG=0.289 HR/AB=0.152

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	2.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	13.000	4.000	0.000	3.000	5.000	4.000	3.000	4.000	0.3077	0.4375	1.0000	0.3077	0.2308	0.3846	0.2308	0.3077
last_10	0.35	10	-	28.000	8.000	0.000	3.000	5.000	9.000	6.000	11.000	0.2857	0.4118	0.6071	0.2857	0.1071	0.1786	0.2143	0.3929
season	0.20	13	-	36.000	11.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	9.000	8.000	15.000	0.3056	0.4318	0.5833	0.3056	0.0833	0.1389	0.2222	0.4167

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0150
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.7040
predicted_AVG	0.2996
predicted_BB	0.6040
predicted_H	0.8100
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.4270
predicted_OBP	0.4274
predicted_R	0.8140
predicted_RBI	0.7120
predicted_SLG	0.7791
predicted_SO	0.9710

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0770	0.0150	0.0367	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.7690	2.7040	2.7268	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3000	0.2996	0.2997	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6150	0.6040	0.6079	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7800	0.8100	0.7995	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.4100	0.4270	0.4211	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4270	0.4274	0.4273	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6920	0.8140	0.7713	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6800	0.7120	0.7008	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.7790	0.7791	0.7791	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1540	0.9710	1.0351	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	3
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	2
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.306

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260504_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	681807
playerID	681807
playerName	David Fry
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	CLE
teamID	8

Rhys Hoskins (656555) · BATTER · 1B · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 24

All-history rows before 20260506: 24

System season_avg: 0.2150

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2152

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	0.750	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.292	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.292	3.000	0.708	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.204	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.215	0.333	0.285	0.167
predicted_BB	0.625	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.625	1.000	0.375	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.650	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.708	1.000	1.292	1.000
predicted_HR	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.125	1.000	-0.125	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.332	0.600	0.600	Hitting_OBP	0.344	0.500	0.256	0.100
predicted_R	0.583	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.583	1.000	0.417	0.000
predicted_RBI	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	3.000	0.500	-2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.515	0.750	0.750	Hitting_SLG	0.405	1.333	0.345	-0.583
predicted_SO	1.042	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.042	0.000	-1.042	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.292	-
predicted_AVG	0.204	-
predicted_BB	0.625	-
predicted_H	0.650	-
predicted_HR	0.270	-
predicted_OBP	0.332	-
predicted_R	0.583	-
predicted_RBI	1.000	-
predicted_SLG	0.515	-
predicted_SO	1.042	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.201	-0.049
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.244	-0.048
predicted_AVG	0.204	0.000
predicted_BB	0.576	-0.049
predicted_H	0.654	0.004
predicted_HBP	0.134	-
predicted_HR	0.274	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.332	-0.000
predicted_R	0.615	0.032
predicted_RBI	1.008	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.515	0.000
predicted_SO	0.997	-0.045

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.29), rates preserved: AVG=0.199 HR/AB=0.083

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 24

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	3.000	2.000	5.000	0.1875	0.3000	0.6250	0.1875	0.1250	0.4375	0.1250	0.3125
last_10	0.35	10	-	32.000	7.000	1.000	2.000	8.000	7.000	7.000	9.000	0.2188	0.3659	0.4375	0.2188	0.0625	0.2500	0.2188	0.2812
season	0.20	24	-	79.000	17.000	6.000	3.000	12.000	14.000	15.000	25.000	0.2152	0.3438	0.4051	0.2152	0.0380	0.1519	0.1899	0.3165

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1750
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.2180
predicted_AVG	0.2040
predicted_BB	0.5500
predicted_H	0.6560
predicted_HBP	0.1340
predicted_HR	0.2760
predicted_OBP	0.3318
predicted_R	0.6320
predicted_RBI	1.0130
predicted_SLG	0.5154
predicted_SO	0.9730

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.1750	0.2012	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2920	3.2180	3.2439	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2040	0.2040	0.2040	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6250	0.5500	0.5763	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6500	0.6560	0.6539	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1340	0.1340	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2700	0.2760	0.2739	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3320	0.3318	0.3319	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5830	0.6320	0.6149	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	1.0000	1.0130	1.0084	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5150	0.5154	0.5153	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0420	0.9730	0.9971	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	24
Season rows before report date	24
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	24
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.215

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260505_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	656555
playerID	656555
playerName	Rhys Hoskins
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	CLE
teamID	8

Angel Martínez (682657) · BATTER · LF · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 26

All-history rows before 20260506: 26

System season_avg: 0.2930

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2929

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.269	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.269	0.000	-0.269	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.840	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.808	3.000	1.192	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.291	0.200	0.200	Hitting_AVG	0.293	0.000	-0.093	0.200
predicted_BB	0.154	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_H	1.120	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.115	0.000	-0.115	1.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.192	0.000	-0.192	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.323	0.200	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.000	-0.133	0.200
predicted_R	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.577	0.000	-0.577	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.192	0.000	-0.192	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.493	0.200	0.200	Hitting_SLG	0.515	0.000	-0.315	0.200
predicted_SO	0.731	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.731	1.000	0.269	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.269	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.840	-
predicted_AVG	0.291	-
predicted_BB	0.154	-
predicted_H	1.120	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.323	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.320	-
predicted_SLG	0.493	-
predicted_SO	0.731	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.316	0.047
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.780	-0.060
predicted_AVG	0.291	0.000
predicted_BB	0.157	0.003
predicted_H	1.101	-0.019
predicted_HBP	0.015	-
predicted_HR	0.139	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.323	-0.000
predicted_R	0.409	-0.091
predicted_RBI	0.317	-0.003
predicted_SLG	0.493	0.000
predicted_SO	0.812	0.081

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.84), rates preserved: AVG=0.287 HR/AB=0.036

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 26

Reference playing time: 3.840

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	0.2778	0.3158	0.3889	0.2778	0.0000	0.0000	0.0556	0.2222
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	12.000	3.000	3.000	6.000	5.000	1.000	10.000	0.3077	0.3250	0.6154	0.3077	0.0769	0.1538	0.0256	0.2564
season	0.20	26	-	99.000	29.000	7.000	5.000	15.000	13.000	4.000	19.000	0.2929	0.3333	0.5152	0.2929	0.0505	0.1515	0.0404	0.1919

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3410
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7470
predicted_AVG	0.2913
predicted_BB	0.1580
predicted_H	1.0910
predicted_HBP	0.0150
predicted_HR	0.1390
predicted_OBP	0.3225
predicted_R	0.3600
predicted_RBI	0.3150
predicted_SLG	0.4934
predicted_SO	0.8550

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2690	0.3410	0.3158	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8400	3.7470	3.7795	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2910	0.2913	0.2912	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1540	0.1580	0.1566	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1200	1.0910	1.1012	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0150	0.0150	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1390	0.1394	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3230	0.3225	0.3227	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.3600	0.4090	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3200	0.3150	0.3167	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4930	0.4934	0.4933	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7310	0.8550	0.8116	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	26
Season rows before report date	26
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	26
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.293

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260505_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	682657
playerID	682657
playerName	Angel Martínez
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	CLE
teamID	8

José Ramírez (608070) · BATTER · 3B · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 37

All-history rows before 20260506: 37

System season_avg: 0.2120

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2117

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.216	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.216	0.000	-0.216	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.703	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.703	4.000	1.297	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.164	0.200	0.200	Hitting_AVG	0.212	0.000	-0.012	0.200
predicted_BB	0.649	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.649	0.000	-0.649	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_H	0.590	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.784	0.000	0.216	1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.162	0.000	-0.162	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.265	0.200	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.329	0.000	-0.129	0.200
predicted_R	0.568	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.568	1.000	-0.568	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.378	0.000	-0.378	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.351	0.000	-0.351	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.251	0.200	0.200	Hitting_SLG	0.401	0.000	-0.201	0.200
predicted_SO	0.595	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.595	1.000	1.405	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.216	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.703	-
predicted_AVG	0.164	-
predicted_BB	0.649	-
predicted_H	0.590	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.265	-
predicted_R	0.568	-
predicted_RBI	0.300	-
predicted_SLG	0.251	-
predicted_SO	0.595	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.231	0.015
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.835	0.132
predicted_AVG	0.164	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.579	-0.070
predicted_H	0.622	0.032
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.033	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.265	-0.000
predicted_R	0.437	-0.131
predicted_RBI	0.317	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.251	0.000
predicted_SO	0.655	0.060

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.83), rates preserved: AVG=0.162 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=14.0, BvP AVG=0.143)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	0.1500	0.2609	0.2000	0.1500	0.0000	0.1000	0.1500	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	6.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	6.000	0.1538	0.2326	0.2308	0.1538	0.0000	0.0513	0.1026	0.1538
season	0.20	37	-	137.000	29.000	8.000	6.000	14.000	21.000	24.000	22.000	0.2117	0.3292	0.4015	0.2117	0.0438	0.1022	0.1752	0.1606

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2390
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.9060
predicted_AVG	0.1637
predicted_BB	0.5410
predicted_H	0.6390
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0340
predicted_OBP	0.2647
predicted_R	0.3660
predicted_RBI	0.3260
predicted_SLG	0.2511
predicted_SO	0.6870

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2160	0.2390	0.2309	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7030	3.9060	3.8350	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1640	0.1637	0.1638	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6490	0.5410	0.5788	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5900	0.6390	0.6219	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0340	0.0326	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2650	0.2647	0.2648	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5680	0.3660	0.4367	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3000	0.3260	0.3169	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2510	0.2511	0.2511	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5950	0.6870	0.6548	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.212

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260505_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	608070
playerID	608070
playerName	José Ramírez
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	CLE
teamID	8

Petey Halpin (690984) · BATTER · CF · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 1

All-history rows before 20260506: 1

System season_avg: 0.0000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.0000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	4.000
predicted_AVG	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.000	0.000
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.000	0.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.000	0.000
predicted_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.000	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.000	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.000	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.000	-
predicted_SLG	0.000	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.000	0.000
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.000	0.000
predicted_R	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.000	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	0.000

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.000 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total SO	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	1	-	4.000	1.000	0.2500
last_10	0.35	1	-	4.000	1.000	0.2500
season	0.20	1	-	4.000	1.000	0.2500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.0000
predicted_AVG	0.0000
predicted_BB	0.0000
predicted_H	0.0000
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.0000
predicted_R	0.0000
predicted_RBI	0.0000
predicted_SLG	0.0000
predicted_SO	1.0000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0000	4.0000	4.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.0

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260503_CLE@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	690984
playerID	690984
playerName	Petey Halpin
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	CLE
teamID	8

Chase DeLauter (800050) · BATTER · DH · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 30

All-history rows before 20260506: 30

System season_avg: 0.2980

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2982

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.267	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.267	0.000	-0.267	0.000
predicted_3B	0.033	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.033	0.000	-0.033	0.000
predicted_AB	3.800	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.800	4.000	1.200	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.491	0.200	0.200	Hitting_AVG	0.298	0.250	-0.098	-0.050
predicted_BB	0.533	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.533	0.000	-0.533	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.800	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.133	1.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_HR	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.562	0.200	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.382	0.250	-0.182	-0.050
predicted_R	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.790	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.700	0.000	-0.700	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.721	0.200	0.200	Hitting_SLG	0.544	0.250	-0.344	-0.050
predicted_SO	0.467	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.467	0.000	0.533	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.267	-
predicted_3B	0.033	-
predicted_AB	3.800	-
predicted_AVG	0.491	-
predicted_BB	0.533	-
predicted_H	1.800	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.562	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.790	-
predicted_SLG	0.721	-
predicted_SO	0.467	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.315	0.047
predicted_3B	0.016	-0.017
predicted_AB	3.741	-0.058
predicted_AVG	0.491	0.000
predicted_BB	0.607	0.074
predicted_H	1.814	0.014
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.164	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.562	0.000
predicted_R	0.486	-0.014
predicted_RBI	0.800	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.721	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.349	-0.118

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.80), rates preserved: AVG=0.477 HR/AB=0.043

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	2.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	2.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	11.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	4.000	1.000	0.6111	0.6818	0.8889	0.6111	0.0556	0.2778	0.2222	0.0556
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	17.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	3.000	5.000	3.000	0.4474	0.5116	0.6053	0.4474	0.0263	0.1579	0.1316	0.0790
season	0.20	30	-	114.000	34.000	8.000	1.000	6.000	21.000	15.000	16.000	14.000	0.2982	0.3817	0.5439	0.2983	0.0526	0.1842	0.1404	0.1228

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3400
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.7100
predicted_AVG	0.4912
predicted_BB	0.6460
predicted_H	1.8220
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1660
predicted_OBP	0.5622
predicted_R	0.4780
predicted_RBI	0.8050
predicted_SLG	0.7206
predicted_SO	0.2860

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2670	0.3400	0.3145	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0330	0.0070	0.0161	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8000	3.7100	3.7415	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.4910	0.4912	0.4911	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5330	0.6460	0.6065	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.8000	1.8220	1.8143	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.1660	0.1639	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.5620	0.5622	0.5621	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.4780	0.4857	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7900	0.8050	0.7998	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.7210	0.7206	0.7207	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4670	0.2860	0.3493	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.298

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260505_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	800050
playerID	800050
playerName	Chase DeLauter
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	CLE
teamID	8

Joey Cantillo (676282) · PITCHER · Starter · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 7

All-history rows before 20260506: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	2.000	4.000	0.000	-2.000
predicted_IP	4.000	4.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.671	4.000	-0.671	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	5.143	2.000	-3.143	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	25.333	11.000	24.000	11.000	25.000	5.000	3.9079	1.3816	0.4342	0.9474	0.4342	0.9868	0.1974
last_10	0.35	7	34.333	14.000	32.000	16.000	36.000	5.000	3.6699	1.3981	0.4078	0.9320	0.4660	1.0485	0.1456
season	0.20	7	34.333	14.000	32.000	16.000	36.000	5.000	3.6699	1.3981	0.4078	0.9320	0.4660	1.0485	0.1456

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.2480
predicted_ER	2.0890
predicted_ERA	3.7770
predicted_H	4.6740
predicted_HR	0.8410
predicted_IP	4.9780
predicted_SO	5.0810
predicted_WHIP	1.3907

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	2.2480	2.5112	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.0890	2.0579	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.7770	3.7770	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	4.6740	3.7381	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.8410	0.5466	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.0000	4.9780	4.6357	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	5.0810	4.0027	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3907	1.3907	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.0
H	2
R	2
ER	2
BB	3
SO	2
HR	0
BF	17
Pitches	77

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	20
Pitching_ER	4
Pitching_ERA	3.67
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	5
Pitching_H	5
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	4.0
Pitching_Pitches	69
Pitching_R	4
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	40
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260501_CLE@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	676282
playerID	676282
playerName	Joey Cantillo
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	CLE
teamID	8

Cade Smith (671922) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 15

All-history rows before 20260506: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.007	1.100	-0.007	-0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.200	1.000	-1.200	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.333	1.000	5.000	1.000	7.000	0.000	1.6875	1.1250	0.1875	0.9375	0.1875	1.3125	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.333	2.000	10.000	3.000	12.000	0.000	1.7419	1.2581	0.1935	0.9677	0.2903	1.1613	0.0000
season	0.20	15	15.333	6.000	16.000	4.000	18.000	1.000	3.5217	1.3043	0.3913	1.0435	0.2609	1.1739	0.0652

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2490
predicted_ER	0.2410
predicted_ERA	2.0734
predicted_H	1.0140
predicted_HR	0.0140
predicted_IP	1.0460
predicted_SO	1.2890
predicted_WHIP	1.2074

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2490	0.1618	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2410	0.1567	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.0734	2.0734	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.0140	0.6591	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0140	0.0091	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0460	1.0299	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.2890	0.8378	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2074	1.2074	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.52
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	22
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	7
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260501_CLE@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	671922
playerID	671922
playerName	Cade Smith
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CLE
teamID	8

Erik Sabrowski (681870) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 17

All-history rows before 20260506: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.235	0.000	-0.235	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.671	1.000	0.329	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.412	2.000	-1.412	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	6.000	0.000	0.0000	0.7500	0.0000	0.5000	0.2500	1.5000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.667	4.000	4.000	4.000	14.000	1.000	4.1538	0.9231	0.4615	0.4615	0.4615	1.6154	0.1154
season	0.20	17	14.667	4.000	7.000	6.000	24.000	1.000	2.4545	0.8864	0.2727	0.4773	0.4091	1.6364	0.0682

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2970
predicted_ER	0.1810
predicted_ERA	1.9447
predicted_H	0.4030
predicted_HR	0.0450
predicted_IP	0.8360
predicted_SO	1.3100
predicted_WHIP	0.8379

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2970	0.1930	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1810	0.1177	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.9447	1.9447	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.4030	0.2620	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0450	0.0292	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.8360	0.8934	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.3100	0.8515	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.8379	0.8379	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	6

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.45
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	3
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	8
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260501_CLE@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	681870
playerID	681870
playerName	Erik Sabrowski
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CLE
teamID	8

Hunter Gaddis (683769) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 8

All-history rows before 20260506: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.750	1.000	0.250	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.650	0.100	0.350	0.900
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.875	1.000	0.125	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.667	4.000	6.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	9.8182	1.9091	1.0909	1.6364	0.2727	0.8182	0.5454
last_10	0.35	7	5.667	5.000	8.000	2.000	7.000	2.000	7.9412	1.7647	0.8823	1.4118	0.3529	1.2353	0.3529
season	0.20	7	5.667	5.000	8.000	2.000	7.000	2.000	7.9412	1.7647	0.8823	1.4118	0.3529	1.2353	0.3529

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2460
predicted_ER	0.7570
predicted_ERA	8.7858
predicted_H	1.1730
predicted_HR	0.3410
predicted_IP	0.7750
predicted_SO	0.8120
predicted_WHIP	1.8297

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2460	0.1599	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.7570	0.8420	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	8.7858	8.7858	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	1.1730	1.4625	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.3410	0.2217	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.7750	0.8538	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8120	0.8778	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.8297	1.8297	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	9.53
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	22
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260502_CLE@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	683769
playerID	683769
playerName	Hunter Gaddis
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CLE
teamID	8

Matt Festa (670036) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 15

All-history rows before 20260506: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.600	1.000	-0.600	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.900	1.200	0.100	-0.200
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.667	1.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	1.9286	0.8571	0.2143	0.4286	0.4286	0.8571	0.2143
last_10	0.35	10	11.000	5.000	9.000	3.000	10.000	2.000	4.0909	1.0909	0.4546	0.8182	0.2727	0.9091	0.1818
season	0.20	15	17.000	9.000	15.000	4.000	15.000	3.000	4.7647	1.1176	0.5294	0.8823	0.2353	0.8823	0.1765

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3460
predicted_ER	0.3730
predicted_ERA	3.2526
predicted_H	0.6760
predicted_HR	0.2020
predicted_IP	1.0320
predicted_SO	0.9080
predicted_WHIP	0.9910

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3460	0.2249	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3730	0.2424	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.2526	3.2526	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6760	0.4394	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2020	0.1313	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0320	1.0208	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9080	0.9402	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9910	0.9910	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	12

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	4.76
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.2
Pitching_Pitches	28
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	14
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	670036
playerID	670036
playerName	Matt Festa
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CLE
teamID	8

Tim Herrin (682120) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 13

All-history rows before 20260506: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.615	1.000	0.385	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.385	1.000	1.615	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	WHIP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.333	3.000	2.000	2.000	0.9375	0.5625	0.3750	0.3750
last_10	0.35	10	8.333	6.000	6.000	3.000	1.4400	0.7200	0.7200	0.3600
season	0.20	13	10.333	8.000	6.000	5.000	1.3548	0.7742	0.5806	0.4839

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5000
predicted_ER	0.0000
predicted_ERA	0.0000
predicted_H	0.6140
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	0.9310
predicted_SO	0.3640
predicted_WHIP	1.1968

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5000	0.3250	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.6140	0.7491	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.9310	0.9552	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.3640	0.9366	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1968	1.1968	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	22

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.00
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260502_CLE@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	682120
playerID	682120
playerName	Tim Herrin
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CLE
teamID	8

Home Team: KC

Salvador Perez (521692) · BATTER · DH · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 35

All-history rows before 20260506: 35

System season_avg: 0.2090

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2086

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.971	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.971	4.000	0.029	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.269	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.209	0.250	0.291	0.250
predicted_BB	0.114	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.114	0.000	-0.114	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.030	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.829	1.000	1.171	1.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.303	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.245	0.250	0.255	0.250
predicted_R	0.400	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.400	0.000	0.600	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.860	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.457	2.000	-0.457	-2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.411	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.353	0.250	0.147	0.250
predicted_SO	0.886	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.886	2.000	-0.886	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.971	-
predicted_AVG	0.269	-
predicted_BB	0.114	-
predicted_H	1.030	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.303	-
predicted_R	0.400	-
predicted_RBI	0.860	-
predicted_SLG	0.411	-
predicted_SO	0.886	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.234	0.091
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.973	0.002
predicted_AVG	0.269	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.055	-0.059
predicted_H	1.054	0.024
predicted_HBP	0.178	-
predicted_HR	0.093	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.303	0.000
predicted_R	0.609	0.209
predicted_RBI	0.881	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.411	0.000
predicted_SO	0.943	0.057

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.97), rates preserved: AVG=0.265 HR/AB=0.023

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.971

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	5.000	4.000	0.000	6.000	0.2632	0.3000	0.3684	0.2632	0.0000	0.2632	0.0000	0.3158
last_10	0.35	10	-	42.000	13.000	2.000	2.000	10.000	8.000	0.000	7.000	0.3095	0.3409	0.5000	0.3095	0.0476	0.2381	0.0000	0.1667
season	0.20	35	-	139.000	29.000	5.000	5.000	16.000	14.000	4.000	31.000	0.2086	0.2449	0.3525	0.2086	0.0360	0.1151	0.0288	0.2230

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2830
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.9740
predicted_AVG	0.2685
predicted_BB	0.0230
predicted_H	1.0670
predicted_HBP	0.1780
predicted_HR	0.0950
predicted_OBP	0.3033
predicted_R	0.7220
predicted_RBI	0.8930
predicted_SLG	0.4113
predicted_SO	0.9740

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.2830	0.2340	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9710	3.9740	3.9730	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2690	0.2685	0.2687	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1140	0.0230	0.0548	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0300	1.0670	1.0540	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1780	0.1780	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.0950	0.0932	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3030	0.3033	0.3032	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4000	0.7220	0.6093	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.8600	0.8930	0.8815	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4110	0.4113	0.4112	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8860	0.9740	0.9432	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.209

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260505_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	521692
playerID	521692
playerName	Salvador Perez
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	KC
teamID	12

Elias Díaz (553869) · BATTER · C · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 3

All-history rows before 20260506: 3

System season_avg: 0.4000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.4000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.667	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.333	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.333	4.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.400	0.250	-0.400	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.333	1.000	-1.333	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.455	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.455	0.250	-0.455	-0.250
predicted_R	0.667	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.667	1.000	-0.667	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.820	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.900	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.900	1.000	-0.900	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.667	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.333	-
predicted_AVG	0.400	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	1.090	-
predicted_HR	0.270	-
predicted_OBP	0.455	-
predicted_R	0.667	-
predicted_RBI	0.820	-
predicted_SLG	0.900	-
predicted_SO	0.333	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.667	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.333	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.400	0.000
predicted_BB	0.333	0.000
predicted_H	1.248	0.158
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.311	0.041
predicted_OBP	0.455	-0.000
predicted_R	0.667	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.937	0.117
predicted_SLG	0.900	0.000
predicted_SO	0.333	0.000

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.33), rates preserved: AVG=0.374 HR/AB=0.093

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 3

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	3	-	10.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	0.4000	0.4545	0.9000	0.4000	0.1000	0.3000	0.1000	0.1000
last_10	0.35	3	-	10.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	0.4000	0.4545	0.9000	0.4000	0.1000	0.3000	0.1000	0.1000
season	0.20	3	-	10.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	0.4000	0.4545	0.9000	0.4000	0.1000	0.3000	0.1000	0.1000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.6670
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.3330
predicted_AVG	0.4000
predicted_BB	0.3330
predicted_H	1.3330
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.3330
predicted_OBP	0.4545
predicted_R	0.6670
predicted_RBI	1.0000
predicted_SLG	0.9000
predicted_SO	0.3330

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.6670	0.6670	0.6670	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3330	3.3330	3.3330	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.4000	0.4000	0.4000	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.3330	0.3330	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0900	1.3330	1.2480	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2700	0.3330	0.3110	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4550	0.4545	0.4547	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6670	0.6670	0.6670	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.8200	1.0000	0.9370	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.9000	0.9000	0.9000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3330	0.3330	0.3330	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	3
Season rows before report date	3
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	3
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.4

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260430_KC@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	553869
playerID	553869
playerName	Elias Díaz
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	KC
teamID	12

Maikel Garcia (672580) · BATTER · 3B · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 33

All-history rows before 20260506: 33

System season_avg: 0.2580

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2576

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.273	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.273	0.000	-0.273	0.000
predicted_3B	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_AB	4.030	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	3.000	0.000	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.198	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.258	0.000	-0.258	0.000
predicted_BB	0.394	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.394	1.000	-0.394	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.061	0.000	-0.061	0.000
predicted_H	0.800	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.030	0.000	-1.030	0.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.263	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.320	0.250	-0.320	-0.250
predicted_R	0.545	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.545	1.000	-0.545	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.394	0.000	-0.394	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.121	0.000	-0.121	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.321	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.409	0.000	-0.409	0.000
predicted_SO	0.758	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.758	1.000	0.242	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.273	-
predicted_3B	0.030	-
predicted_AB	4.030	-
predicted_AVG	0.198	-
predicted_BB	0.394	-
predicted_H	0.800	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.263	-
predicted_R	0.545	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.321	-
predicted_SO	0.758	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.258	-0.015
predicted_3B	0.037	0.007
predicted_AB	4.011	-0.019
predicted_AVG	0.198	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.397	0.003
predicted_H	0.794	-0.006
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.052	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.263	-0.000
predicted_R	0.515	-0.030
predicted_RBI	0.399	-0.001
predicted_SLG	0.321	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.699	-0.059

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.03), rates preserved: AVG=0.197 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, BvP AVG=0.222)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 4.030

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	0.1500	0.2174	0.2000	0.1500	0.0000	0.1000	0.1000	0.1500
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	9.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	6.000	4.000	7.000	0.2250	0.2889	0.4250	0.2250	0.0250	0.1000	0.1000	0.1750
season	0.20	33	-	132.000	34.000	9.000	1.000	3.000	13.000	18.000	13.000	25.000	0.2576	0.3197	0.4091	0.2576	0.0227	0.0985	0.0985	0.1894

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2500
predicted_3B	0.0410
predicted_AB	4.0000
predicted_AVG	0.1978
predicted_BB	0.3990
predicted_H	0.7910
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0530
predicted_OBP	0.2629
predicted_R	0.4990
predicted_RBI	0.3990
predicted_SLG	0.3206
predicted_SO	0.6670

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2730	0.2500	0.2581	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0300	0.0410	0.0372	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0300	4.0000	4.0105	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1980	0.1978	0.1979	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3940	0.3990	0.3972	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8000	0.7910	0.7941	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0530	0.0519	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2630	0.2629	0.2629	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5450	0.4990	0.5151	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.3990	0.3993	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3210	0.3206	0.3207	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7580	0.6670	0.6988	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.258

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260505_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	672580
playerID	672580
playerName	Maikel Garcia
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	KC
teamID	12

Vinnie Pasquantino (686469) · BATTER · 1B · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 33

All-history rows before 20260506: 33

System season_avg: 0.1940

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1935

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.121	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.121	0.000	-0.121	0.000
predicted_3B	0.061	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.061	0.000	-0.061	0.000
predicted_AB	3.758	2.000	2.000	Hitting_AB	3.758	4.000	-1.758	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.194	0.000	-0.194	0.000
predicted_BB	0.485	2.000	2.000	Hitting_BB	0.485	0.000	1.515	2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.727	0.000	-0.727	0.000
predicted_HR	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.121	0.000	-0.121	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.332	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.283	0.000	0.217	0.500
predicted_R	0.455	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.455	0.000	-0.455	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.550	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.515	0.000	-0.515	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.504	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.355	0.000	-0.355	0.000
predicted_SO	0.909	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.909	0.000	0.091	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.121	-
predicted_3B	0.061	-
predicted_AB	3.758	-
predicted_AVG	0.286	-
predicted_BB	0.485	-
predicted_H	1.010	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.332	-
predicted_R	0.455	-
predicted_RBI	0.550	-
predicted_SLG	0.504	-
predicted_SO	0.909	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.187	0.066
predicted_3B	0.054	-0.006
predicted_AB	3.933	0.175
predicted_AVG	0.286	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.386	-0.099
predicted_H	1.102	0.092
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.176	0.016
predicted_OBP	0.332	0.000
predicted_R	0.635	0.180
predicted_RBI	0.598	0.048
predicted_SLG	0.504	0.000
predicted_SO	0.964	0.055

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.93), rates preserved: AVG=0.280 HR/AB=0.045

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, BvP AVG=0.125)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-2.000
BB	2.000	2.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	22.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	0.000	6.000	0.3182	0.3182	0.5000	0.3182	0.0454	0.1364	0.0000	0.2727
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	11.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	8.000	6.000	8.000	0.2973	0.3778	0.5946	0.2973	0.0541	0.1892	0.1622	0.2162
season	0.20	33	-	124.000	24.000	4.000	2.000	4.000	17.000	15.000	16.000	30.000	0.1935	0.2828	0.3548	0.1935	0.0323	0.1371	0.1290	0.2419

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2230
predicted_3B	0.0510
predicted_AB	4.0270
predicted_AVG	0.2859
predicted_BB	0.3320
predicted_H	1.1510
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.1850
predicted_OBP	0.3320
predicted_R	0.7320
predicted_RBI	0.6240
predicted_SLG	0.5041
predicted_SO	0.9940

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1210	0.2230	0.1873	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0610	0.0510	0.0545	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7580	4.0270	3.9329	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2860	0.2859	0.2859	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4850	0.3320	0.3856	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0100	1.1510	1.1017	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.1850	0.1762	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3320	0.3320	0.3320	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4550	0.7320	0.6351	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5500	0.6240	0.5981	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5040	0.5041	0.5041	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9090	0.9940	0.9643	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.194

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260505_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	686469
playerID	686469
playerName	Vinnie Pasquantino
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	KC
teamID	12

Starling Marte (516782) · BATTER · RF · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 9

All-history rows before 20260506: 9

System season_avg: 0.3230

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3226

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.333	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.444	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.444	4.000	0.556	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.363	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.323	0.750	-0.073	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.111	1.000	-0.111	-1.000
predicted_H	1.080	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.111	3.000	-0.111	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.373	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.750	-0.083	-0.500
predicted_R	0.222	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.222	0.000	0.778	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.260	3.000	3.000	Hitting_RBI	0.222	1.000	2.778	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.442	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.419	0.750	0.081	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.111	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.111	0.000	0.889	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.333	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.444	-
predicted_AVG	0.363	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	1.080	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.373	-
predicted_R	0.222	-
predicted_RBI	0.260	-
predicted_SLG	0.442	-
predicted_SO	1.111	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.294	-0.039
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.431	-0.013
predicted_AVG	0.363	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.185	0.105
predicted_HBP	0.151	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.373	-0.000
predicted_R	0.215	-0.007
predicted_RBI	0.288	0.028
predicted_SLG	0.442	0.000
predicted_SO	0.960	-0.151

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.44), rates preserved: AVG=0.344 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	3.000	3.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	7.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	0.4118	0.4211	0.4706	0.4118	0.1177	0.1765
last_10	0.35	9	-	31.000	10.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	10.000	0.3226	0.3333	0.4194	0.3226	0.0645	0.3226
season	0.20	9	-	31.000	10.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	10.000	0.3226	0.3333	0.4194	0.3226	0.0645	0.3226

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2730
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.4240
predicted_AVG	0.3627
predicted_BB	0.0000
predicted_H	1.2420
predicted_HBP	0.1510
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.3728
predicted_R	0.2120
predicted_RBI	0.3030
predicted_SLG	0.4424
predicted_SO	0.8790

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3330	0.2730	0.2940	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4440	3.4240	3.4310	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3630	0.3627	0.3628	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0800	1.2420	1.1853	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1510	0.1510	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3730	0.3728	0.3729	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2220	0.2120	0.2155	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2600	0.3030	0.2880	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4420	0.4424	0.4423	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1110	0.8790	0.9602	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	3
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.323

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	1
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	1
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.75
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260430_KC@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	516782
playerID	516782
playerName	Starling Marte
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	KC
teamID	12

Isaac Collins (686555) · BATTER · LF · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 27

All-history rows before 20260506: 27

System season_avg: 0.2530

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2527

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.148	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.148	1.000	0.852	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.370	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.370	3.000	0.630	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.385	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.253	1.000	-0.003	-0.750
predicted_BB	0.556	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.556	0.000	-0.556	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_H	1.080	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.852	3.000	0.148	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.111	1.000	-0.111	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.481	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.367	1.000	-0.117	-0.750
predicted_R	0.481	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.481	2.000	-0.481	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.600	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.444	1.000	-0.444	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.074	1.000	-0.074	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.695	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.396	2.333	0.104	-1.833
predicted_SO	1.148	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.148	0.000	-1.148	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.148	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.370	-
predicted_AVG	0.385	-
predicted_BB	0.556	-
predicted_H	1.080	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.481	-
predicted_R	0.481	-
predicted_RBI	0.600	-
predicted_SLG	0.695	-
predicted_SO	1.148	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.320	0.172
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.200	-0.170
predicted_AVG	0.385	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.626	0.070
predicted_H	1.155	0.075
predicted_HBP	0.049	-
predicted_HR	0.179	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.481	0.000
predicted_R	0.462	-0.019
predicted_RBI	0.643	0.043
predicted_SLG	0.695	0.000
predicted_SO	0.942	-0.206

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.37), rates preserved: AVG=0.343 HR/AB=0.053

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	7.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	0.4667	0.5263	0.8667	0.4667	0.0667	0.2667	0.2000	0.2667
last_10	0.35	10	-	31.000	11.000	3.000	2.000	6.000	5.000	8.000	7.000	0.3548	0.4878	0.6452	0.3548	0.0645	0.1935	0.2581	0.2258
season	0.20	27	-	91.000	23.000	4.000	3.000	12.000	13.000	15.000	31.000	0.2527	0.3670	0.3956	0.2527	0.0330	0.1319	0.1648	0.3407

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.4120
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.1090
predicted_AVG	0.3847
predicted_BB	0.6630
predicted_H	1.1960
predicted_HBP	0.0490
predicted_HR	0.1840
predicted_OBP	0.4810
predicted_R	0.4510
predicted_RBI	0.6660
predicted_SLG	0.6950
predicted_SO	0.8310

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1480	0.4120	0.3196	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3700	3.1090	3.2004	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3850	0.3847	0.3848	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5560	0.6630	0.6256	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0800	1.1960	1.1554	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0490	0.0490	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.1840	0.1791	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4810	0.4810	0.4810	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4810	0.4510	0.4615	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6000	0.6660	0.6429	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6950	0.6950	0.6950	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1480	0.8310	0.9419	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.253

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	1.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	7
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260505_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	686555
playerID	686555
playerName	Isaac Collins
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	KC
teamID	12

Nick Loftin (679845) · BATTER · 2B · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 9

All-history rows before 20260506: 9

System season_avg: 0.2260

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2258

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.444	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.444	4.000	0.556	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.249	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.226	0.250	-0.226	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.444	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.444	0.000	-0.444	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.720	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.778	1.000	-0.778	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.344	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.314	0.250	-0.314	-0.250
predicted_R	0.778	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.778	0.000	-0.778	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.740	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.667	2.000	-0.667	-2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.290	0.250	-0.290	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.222	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.444	-
predicted_AVG	0.249	-
predicted_BB	0.444	-
predicted_H	0.720	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.344	-
predicted_R	0.778	-
predicted_RBI	0.740	-
predicted_SLG	0.310	-
predicted_SO	0.333	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.216	-0.006
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.490	0.046
predicted_AVG	0.249	0.000
predicted_BB	0.489	0.045
predicted_H	0.821	0.101
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.344	0.000
predicted_R	0.784	0.006
predicted_RBI	0.845	0.105
predicted_SLG	0.310	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.295	-0.038

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.49), rates preserved: AVG=0.235 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	5.000	1.000	6.000	4.000	3.000	1.000	0.2778	0.3810	0.3333	0.2778	0.3333	0.1667	0.0556
last_10	0.35	9	-	31.000	7.000	2.000	6.000	7.000	4.000	3.000	0.2258	0.3143	0.2903	0.2258	0.1935	0.1290	0.0968
season	0.20	9	-	31.000	7.000	2.000	6.000	7.000	4.000	3.000	0.2258	0.3143	0.2903	0.2258	0.1935	0.1290	0.0968

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2130
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.5140
predicted_AVG	0.2492
predicted_BB	0.5130
predicted_H	0.8760
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.3443
predicted_R	0.7880
predicted_RBI	0.9010
predicted_SLG	0.3096
predicted_SO	0.2750

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2220	0.2130	0.2161	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4440	3.5140	3.4895	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2490	0.2492	0.2491	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4440	0.5130	0.4889	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7200	0.8760	0.8214	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3440	0.3443	0.3442	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7780	0.7880	0.7845	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7400	0.9010	0.8447	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3100	0.3096	0.3097	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3330	0.2750	0.2953	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.226

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260504_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	679845
playerID	679845
playerName	Nick Loftin
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	KC
teamID	12

Bobby Witt Jr. (677951) · BATTER · SS · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 36

All-history rows before 20260506: 36

System season_avg: 0.2870

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2867

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.278	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.278	1.000	-0.278	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.028	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_AB	3.972	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.972	4.000	-0.972	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.283	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.287	0.500	-0.287	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.472	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.472	0.000	0.528	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_H	1.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.139	2.000	-1.139	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.333	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.358	0.500	-0.108	-0.250
predicted_R	0.417	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.417	1.000	-0.417	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.444	0.000	-0.444	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.306	0.000	-0.306	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.498	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.434	0.750	-0.434	-0.750
predicted_SO	0.833	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.833	1.000	0.167	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.278	-
predicted_3B	0.028	-
predicted_AB	3.972	-
predicted_AVG	0.283	-
predicted_BB	0.472	-
predicted_H	1.080	-
predicted_HR	0.180	-
predicted_OBP	0.333	-
predicted_R	0.417	-
predicted_RBI	0.350	-
predicted_SLG	0.498	-
predicted_SO	0.833	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.238	-0.040
predicted_3B	0.036	0.008
predicted_AB	4.194	0.222
predicted_AVG	0.283	0.000
predicted_BB	0.378	-0.094
predicted_H	1.173	0.093
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.199	0.019
predicted_OBP	0.333	-0.000
predicted_R	0.715	0.298
predicted_RBI	0.377	0.027
predicted_SLG	0.498	0.000
predicted_SO	1.012	0.179

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.19), rates preserved: AVG=0.280 HR/AB=0.047

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, BvP AVG=0.333)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.972

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	22.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	1.000	7.000	0.2727	0.3043	0.4545	0.2727	0.0454	0.0454	0.0454	0.3182
last_10	0.35	10	-	44.000	13.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	10.000	4.000	9.000	0.2955	0.3542	0.5909	0.2954	0.0682	0.1364	0.0909	0.2046
season	0.20	36	-	143.000	41.000	10.000	1.000	3.000	16.000	15.000	17.000	30.000	0.2867	0.3580	0.4336	0.2867	0.0210	0.1119	0.1189	0.2098

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2170
predicted_3B	0.0400
predicted_AB	4.3140
predicted_AVG	0.2835
predicted_BB	0.3280
predicted_H	1.2230
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.2090
predicted_OBP	0.3325
predicted_R	0.8750
predicted_RBI	0.3910
predicted_SLG	0.4981
predicted_SO	1.1080

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2780	0.2170	0.2384	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0280	0.0400	0.0358	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9720	4.3140	4.1943	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2830	0.2835	0.2833	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4720	0.3280	0.3784	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0800	1.2230	1.1730	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1800	0.2090	0.1988	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3330	0.3325	0.3327	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4170	0.8750	0.7147	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3500	0.3910	0.3767	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4980	0.4981	0.4981	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8330	1.1080	1.0118	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.287

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260505_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	677951
playerID	677951
playerName	Bobby Witt Jr.
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	KC
teamID	12

Lane Thomas (657041) · BATTER · CF · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 18

All-history rows before 20260506: 18

System season_avg: 0.2070

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2069

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.222	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.222	3.000	0.778	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.270	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.207	0.000	0.043	0.250
predicted_BB	0.611	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.611	1.000	-0.611	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_H	0.840	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.667	0.000	0.333	1.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.406	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.343	0.250	-0.093	0.000
predicted_R	0.167	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.167	0.000	0.833	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.397	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.259	0.000	-0.009	0.250
predicted_SO	0.778	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.778	1.000	0.222	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.222	-
predicted_AVG	0.270	-
predicted_BB	0.611	-
predicted_H	0.840	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.406	-
predicted_R	0.167	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.397	-
predicted_SO	0.778	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.210	-0.012
predicted_AVG	0.270	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.605	-0.006
predicted_H	0.856	0.016
predicted_HBP	0.136	-
predicted_HR	0.134	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.406	-0.000
predicted_R	0.242	0.075
predicted_RBI	0.450	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.397	0.000
predicted_SO	0.744	-0.034

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.22), rates preserved: AVG=0.266 HR/AB=0.042

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	5.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	0.3125	0.4500	0.5000	0.3125	0.0625	0.1875	0.1875	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	32.000	8.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	6.000	6.000	0.2500	0.3846	0.3438	0.2500	0.0312	0.1250	0.1875	0.1875
season	0.20	18	-	58.000	12.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	11.000	14.000	0.2069	0.3429	0.2586	0.2069	0.0172	0.0690	0.1897	0.2414

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.2040
predicted_AVG	0.2695
predicted_BB	0.6020
predicted_H	0.8640
predicted_HBP	0.1360
predicted_HR	0.1360
predicted_OBP	0.4057
predicted_R	0.2830
predicted_RBI	0.4550
predicted_SLG	0.3971
predicted_SO	0.7250

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2220	3.2040	3.2103	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2700	0.2695	0.2697	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6110	0.6020	0.6051	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8400	0.8640	0.8556	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1360	0.1360	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1360	0.1339	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4060	0.4057	0.4058	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1670	0.2830	0.2424	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.4550	0.4497	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3970	0.3971	0.3971	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7780	0.7250	0.7435	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.207

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260504_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	657041
playerID	657041
playerName	Lane Thomas
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	KC
teamID	12

Cole Ragans (666142) · PITCHER · Starter · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 7

All-history rows before 20260506: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	2.714	4.000	-0.714	-2.000
predicted_IP	4.000	4.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.486	5.100	-0.486	-1.100
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	5.857	8.000	-3.857	-6.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	22.333	15.000	16.000	16.000	28.000	7.000	6.0448	1.4328	0.6716	0.7164	0.7164	1.2537	0.3134
last_10	0.35	7	32.333	19.000	26.000	21.000	41.000	10.000	5.2887	1.4536	0.5876	0.8041	0.6495	1.2680	0.3093
season	0.20	7	32.333	19.000	26.000	21.000	41.000	10.000	5.2887	1.4536	0.5876	0.8041	0.6495	1.2680	0.3093

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	3.0930
predicted_ER	2.8460
predicted_ERA	5.6289
predicted_H	3.4800
predicted_HR	1.4160
predicted_IP	4.5500
predicted_SO	5.7410
predicted_WHIP	1.4442

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	3.0930	3.0604	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.8460	2.5499	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.6289	5.6289	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	3.4800	3.6620	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	1.4160	0.9204	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.0000	4.5500	4.3575	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	5.7410	4.4316	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4442	1.4442	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.0
H	4
R	2
ER	2
BB	3
SO	2
HR	0
BF	19
Pitches	89

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	23
Pitching_ER	4
Pitching_ERA	5.29
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	3
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.1
Pitching_Pitches	95
Pitching_R	4
Pitching_SO	8
Pitching_Strikes	56
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260501_KC@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	666142
playerID	666142
playerName	Cole Ragans
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	KC
teamID	12

Daniel Lynch IV (663738) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 14

All-history rows before 20260506: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.214	0.000	-0.214	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.964	1.000	0.036	0.000
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.286	0.000	1.714	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.333	2.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	1.000	3.3750	0.7500	0.3750	0.5625	0.1875	0.9375	0.1875
last_10	0.35	10	9.333	2.000	3.000	1.000	11.000	1.000	1.9286	0.4286	0.2143	0.3214	0.1071	1.1786	0.1071
season	0.20	14	14.667	3.000	5.000	4.000	18.000	1.000	1.8409	0.6136	0.2046	0.3409	0.2727	1.2273	0.0682

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1790
predicted_ER	0.2890
predicted_ERA	2.5619
predicted_H	0.4410
predicted_HR	0.1380
predicted_IP	1.0160
predicted_SO	1.0970
predicted_WHIP	0.6102

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1790	0.1163	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2890	0.1878	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.5619	2.5619	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.4410	0.2867	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1380	0.0897	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0160	1.0104	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	1.0970	1.7630	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.6102	0.6102	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	3
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.84
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	663738
playerID	663738
playerName	Daniel Lynch IV
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	KC
teamID	12

John Schreiber (670167) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 14

All-history rows before 20260506: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.429	0.000	-0.429	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.714	0.200	0.286	0.800
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.357	0.000	1.643	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	1.8000	1.2000	0.2000	0.8000	0.4000	0.2000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.333	4.000	8.000	4.000	3.000	1.000	4.3200	1.4400	0.4800	0.9600	0.4800	0.3600	0.1200
season	0.20	14	12.333	6.000	11.000	8.000	5.000	2.000	4.3784	1.5405	0.4865	0.8919	0.6486	0.4054	0.1622

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4380
predicted_ER	0.3260
predicted_ERA	3.1977
predicted_H	0.8030
predicted_HR	0.0680
predicted_IP	0.9180
predicted_SO	0.2730
predicted_WHIP	1.3521

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.4380	0.6347	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3260	0.2119	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.1977	3.1977	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.8030	1.2220	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0680	0.0442	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.9180	0.9467	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.2730	0.8774	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3521	1.3521	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	2
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.38
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	6
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_KC@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	670167
playerID	670167
playerName	John Schreiber
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	KC
teamID	12

Lucas Erceg (668674) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 16

All-history rows before 20260506: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	4.000	4.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.375	0.000	3.625	4.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.900	1.000	0.100	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.875	1.000	0.125	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	7.000	0.0000	0.8000	0.0000	0.2000	0.6000	1.4000
last_10	0.35	10	9.667	4.000	5.000	9.000	11.000	3.7241	1.4483	0.4138	0.5172	0.9310	1.1379
season	0.20	16	15.333	6.000	10.000	11.000	14.000	3.5217	1.3696	0.3913	0.6522	0.7174	0.9130

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.7250
predicted_ER	0.2190
predicted_ERA	2.0078
predicted_H	0.3930
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	0.9800
predicted_SO	1.1870
predicted_WHIP	1.1408

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.7250	0.8213	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	4.0000	0.2190	1.5423	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.0078	2.0078	form_only
predicted_H	5.0000	0.3930	2.0055	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.9800	0.9870	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1870	1.1216	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1408	1.1408	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	5
R	4
ER	4
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	9
Pitches	30

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.52
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	668674
playerID	668674
playerName	Lucas Erceg
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	KC
teamID	12

Matt Strahm (621381) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 14

All-history rows before 20260506: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.357	0.000	-0.357
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.943	1.000	0.057
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	0.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	0.000	0.0000	0.8000	0.0000	0.4000	0.4000	0.8000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	3.000	7.000	5.000	10.000	2.000	2.7000	1.2000	0.3000	0.7000	0.5000	1.0000	0.2000
season	0.20	14	13.667	5.000	10.000	6.000	14.000	2.000	3.2927	1.1707	0.3659	0.7317	0.4390	1.0244	0.1463

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4410
predicted_ER	0.1770
predicted_ERA	1.6035
predicted_H	0.5690
predicted_HR	0.0990
predicted_IP	0.9950
predicted_SO	0.9110
predicted_WHIP	1.0141

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4410	0.2867	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1770	0.1150	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.6035	1.6035	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.5690	0.3698	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0990	0.0644	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.9950	0.9968	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.9110	0.5922	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0141	1.0141	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.29
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	7
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	6
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	621381
playerID	621381
playerName	Matt Strahm
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	KC
teamID	12

Nick Mears (683232) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 14

All-history rows before 20260506: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.214	0.000	-0.214	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.821	1.000	0.179	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.714	1.000	-0.714	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	0.0000	0.7500	0.0000	0.0000	0.7500	1.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.667	3.000	4.000	6.000	7.000	3.1154	1.1538	0.3462	0.4615	0.6923	0.8077
season	0.20	14	12.667	3.000	6.000	7.000	10.000	2.1316	1.0263	0.2368	0.4737	0.5526	0.7895

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5830
predicted_ER	0.1420
predicted_ERA	1.5167
predicted_H	0.2160
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	0.8440
predicted_SO	0.7520
predicted_WHIP	0.9466

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5830	0.3790	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1420	0.0923	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.5167	1.5167	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.2160	0.1404	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.8440	0.8986	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.7520	0.4888	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9466	0.9466	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	7

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.13
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	8
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	5
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	683232
playerID	683232
playerName	Nick Mears
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	KC
teamID	12

20260506_LAD@HOU

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3, "confidence": 0.58, "home_win_probability": 0.42000000000000004, "away_win_probability": 0.58, "predicted_score_text": "LAD 5 - 3 HOU", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to final winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "predicted_score_text": "LAD 5 - 4 HOU", "confidence": 0.58, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score", "final_prediction_synced": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "LAD 5 - 4 HOU", "winner": "LAD"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "LAD 5 - 3 HOU", "winner": "LAD"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": -1, "total_run_delta": -1, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"}}

Away Team: LAD

Teoscar Hernández (606192) · BATTER · LF · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 32

All-history rows before 20260506: 32

System season_avg: 0.2390

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2393

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.656	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.656	4.000	0.344	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.246	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.239	0.000	0.011	0.250
predicted_BB	0.406	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.406	0.000	0.594	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.870	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.875	0.000	0.125	1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.351	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.313	0.000	0.087	0.400
predicted_R	0.531	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.531	0.000	0.469	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.531	0.000	-0.531	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.031	0.000	-0.031	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.274	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.376	0.000	-0.126	0.250
predicted_SO	1.156	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.156	2.000	-0.156	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.656	-
predicted_AVG	0.246	-
predicted_BB	0.406	-
predicted_H	0.870	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.351	-
predicted_R	0.531	-
predicted_RBI	0.240	-
predicted_SLG	0.274	-
predicted_SO	1.156	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.060	-0.065
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.663	0.006
predicted_AVG	0.246	0.000
predicted_BB	0.531	0.125
predicted_H	0.891	0.021
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.023	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.351	0.000
predicted_R	0.407	-0.124
predicted_RBI	0.248	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.274	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.132	-0.024

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.66), rates preserved: AVG=0.243 HR/AB=0.006

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	0.2632	0.3636	0.2632	0.2632	0.0000	0.0000	0.1579	0.3158
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	8.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	4.000	7.000	10.000	0.2286	0.3571	0.2286	0.2286	0.0000	0.1143	0.2000	0.2857
season	0.20	32	-	117.000	28.000	4.000	4.000	17.000	17.000	13.000	37.000	0.2393	0.3130	0.3761	0.2393	0.0342	0.1453	0.1111	0.3162

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0250
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.6660
predicted_AVG	0.2463
predicted_BB	0.5990
predicted_H	0.9030
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0250
predicted_OBP	0.3512
predicted_R	0.3400
predicted_RBI	0.2530
predicted_SLG	0.2737
predicted_SO	1.1190

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1250	0.0250	0.0600	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6560	3.6660	3.6625	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2460	0.2463	0.2462	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4060	0.5990	0.5314	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8700	0.9030	0.8915	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0250	0.0232	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3510	0.3512	0.3511	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5310	0.3400	0.4069	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2400	0.2530	0.2485	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2740	0.2737	0.2738	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1560	1.1190	1.1320	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.239

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260505_LAD@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	606192
playerID	606192
playerName	Teoscar Hernández
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	LAD
teamID	14

Freddie Freeman (518692) · BATTER · 1B · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 34

All-history rows before 20260506: 34

System season_avg: 0.2750

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2754

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.265	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.265	1.000	-0.265	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.029	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_AB	4.059	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	4.059	4.000	0.941	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.308	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.275	0.250	-0.275	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.324	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.324	0.000	-0.324	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.118	1.000	-1.118	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.088	0.000	-0.088	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.331	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.250	-0.333	-0.250
predicted_R	0.353	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.353	0.000	-0.353	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.470	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.529	0.000	-0.529	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.394	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.420	0.500	-0.420	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.618	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.618	1.000	1.382	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.265	-
predicted_3B	0.029	-
predicted_AB	4.059	-
predicted_AVG	0.308	-
predicted_BB	0.324	-
predicted_H	1.200	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.331	-
predicted_R	0.353	-
predicted_RBI	0.470	-
predicted_SLG	0.394	-
predicted_SO	0.618	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.289	0.024
predicted_3B	0.014	-0.015
predicted_AB	4.214	0.155
predicted_AVG	0.308	0.000
predicted_BB	0.203	-0.121
predicted_H	1.281	0.081
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.019	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.331	0.000
predicted_R	0.298	-0.055
predicted_RBI	0.500	0.030
predicted_SLG	0.394	0.000
predicted_SO	0.952	0.334

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.21), rates preserved: AVG=0.304 HR/AB=0.005

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 4.059

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	22.000	8.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	7.000	0.3636	0.3636	0.4545	0.3636	0.0000	0.1364	0.0000	0.3182
last_10	0.35	10	-	43.000	11.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	3.000	2.000	11.000	0.2558	0.2889	0.3023	0.2558	0.0000	0.0930	0.0465	0.2558
season	0.20	34	-	138.000	38.000	9.000	1.000	3.000	18.000	12.000	11.000	21.000	0.2754	0.3333	0.4203	0.2754	0.0217	0.1304	0.0797	0.1522

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3020
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	4.2970
predicted_AVG	0.3082
predicted_BB	0.1380
predicted_H	1.3240
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0190
predicted_OBP	0.3314
predicted_R	0.2680
predicted_RBI	0.5160
predicted_SLG	0.3944
predicted_SO	1.1310

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2650	0.3020	0.2891	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0290	0.0060	0.0140	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0590	4.2970	4.2137	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3080	0.3082	0.3081	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3240	0.1380	0.2031	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2000	1.3240	1.2806	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0190	0.0193	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3310	0.3314	0.3313	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3530	0.2680	0.2978	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4700	0.5160	0.4999	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3940	0.3944	0.3943	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6180	1.1310	0.9515	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.275

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260505_LAD@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	518692
playerID	518692
playerName	Freddie Freeman
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	LAD
teamID	14

Kyle Tucker (663656) · BATTER · RF · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 34

All-history rows before 20260506: 34

System season_avg: 0.2460

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2463

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.206	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.206	0.000	-0.206	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.941	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.941	3.000	0.059	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.260	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.246	0.333	0.254	0.167
predicted_BB	0.529	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.529	1.000	0.471	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.980	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.971	1.000	1.029	1.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.329	0.600	0.600	Hitting_OBP	0.331	0.500	0.269	0.100
predicted_R	0.706	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.706	0.000	0.294	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.670	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.529	1.000	-0.529	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.088	0.000	-0.088	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.447	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.388	0.333	0.112	0.167
predicted_SO	0.912	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.912	1.000	0.088	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.206	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.941	-
predicted_AVG	0.260	-
predicted_BB	0.529	-
predicted_H	0.980	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.329	-
predicted_R	0.706	-
predicted_RBI	0.670	-
predicted_SLG	0.447	-
predicted_SO	0.912	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.249	0.043
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.868	-0.073
predicted_AVG	0.260	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.484	-0.045
predicted_H	0.990	0.010
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.149	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.329	-0.000
predicted_R	0.673	-0.032
predicted_RBI	0.674	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.447	0.000
predicted_SO	0.690	-0.222

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.94), rates preserved: AVG=0.251 HR/AB=0.038

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.941

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	0.2632	0.3182	0.4737	0.2632	0.0526	0.2105	0.1053	0.1053
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	10.000	4.000	1.000	6.000	7.000	5.000	6.000	0.2632	0.3409	0.4474	0.2632	0.0263	0.1579	0.1316	0.1579
season	0.20	34	-	134.000	33.000	7.000	4.000	18.000	24.000	18.000	31.000	0.2463	0.3312	0.3881	0.2463	0.0299	0.1343	0.1343	0.2313

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2720
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.8280
predicted_AVG	0.2598
predicted_BB	0.4600
predicted_H	0.9950
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1490
predicted_OBP	0.3287
predicted_R	0.6560
predicted_RBI	0.6770
predicted_SLG	0.4474
predicted_SO	0.5700

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2060	0.2720	0.2489	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9410	3.8280	3.8675	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2600	0.2598	0.2599	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5290	0.4600	0.4842	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9800	0.9950	0.9898	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1490	0.1494	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3290	0.3287	0.3288	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7060	0.6560	0.6735	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6700	0.6770	0.6745	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4470	0.4474	0.4473	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9120	0.5700	0.6897	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.246

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260505_LAD@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	663656
playerID	663656
playerName	Kyle Tucker
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	LAD
teamID	14

Dalton Rushing (687221) · BATTER · C · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 15

All-history rows before 20260506: 15

System season_avg: 0.3330

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3333

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.133	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.400	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.400	3.000	0.600	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.228	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.333	0.000	-0.083	0.250
predicted_BB	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.650	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.133	0.000	-0.133	1.000
predicted_HR	0.170	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.467	0.000	0.533	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.297	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.404	0.000	-0.154	0.250
predicted_R	0.800	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.800	0.000	0.200	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.560	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	1.067	0.000	0.933	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.411	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SLG	0.784	0.000	0.216	1.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.133	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.400	-
predicted_AVG	0.228	-
predicted_BB	0.200	-
predicted_H	0.650	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.297	-
predicted_R	0.800	-
predicted_RBI	0.560	-
predicted_SLG	0.411	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.064	-0.069
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.400	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.228	0.000
predicted_BB	0.164	-0.036
predicted_H	0.733	0.083
predicted_HBP	0.200	-
predicted_HR	0.188	0.018
predicted_OBP	0.297	0.000
predicted_R	0.556	-0.244
predicted_RBI	0.633	0.073
predicted_SLG	0.411	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	0.000

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.40), rates preserved: AVG=0.215 HR/AB=0.055

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	5.000	0.1765	0.2222	0.1765	0.1765	0.0000	0.1177	0.0000	0.2941
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	8.000	0.000	3.000	8.000	5.000	3.000	10.000	0.2353	0.3333	0.5000	0.2353	0.0882	0.2353	0.0882	0.2941
season	0.20	15	-	51.000	17.000	2.000	7.000	16.000	12.000	3.000	15.000	0.3333	0.4035	0.7843	0.3333	0.1373	0.3137	0.0588	0.2941

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0270
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.4000
predicted_AVG	0.2284
predicted_BB	0.1450
predicted_H	0.7770
predicted_HBP	0.2000
predicted_HR	0.1980
predicted_OBP	0.2973
predicted_R	0.4250
predicted_RBI	0.6730
predicted_SLG	0.4113
predicted_SO	1.0000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1330	0.0270	0.0641	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4000	3.4000	3.4000	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2280	0.2284	0.2283	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2000	0.1450	0.1643	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6500	0.7770	0.7326	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.2000	0.2000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.1980	0.1882	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2970	0.2973	0.2972	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8000	0.4250	0.5562	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5600	0.6730	0.6335	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4110	0.4113	0.4112	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.333

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260505_LAD@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	687221
playerID	687221
playerName	Dalton Rushing
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	LAD
teamID	14

Hyeseong Kim (808975) · BATTER · SS · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 21

All-history rows before 20260506: 21

System season_avg: 0.3060

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3065

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.095	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.095	0.000	-0.095	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.952	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	2.952	5.000	1.048	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.280	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.306	0.200	-0.056	0.050
predicted_BB	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.048	0.000	-0.048	0.000
predicted_H	0.690	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.905	1.000	0.095	0.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.048	0.000	-0.048	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.320	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.371	0.200	-0.121	0.050
predicted_R	0.429	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.429	1.000	-0.429	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.381	0.000	-0.381	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.238	0.000	-0.238	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.296	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.387	0.200	-0.137	0.050
predicted_SO	0.619	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.619	0.000	-0.619	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.095	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.952	-
predicted_AVG	0.280	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.690	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.320	-
predicted_R	0.429	-
predicted_RBI	0.240	-
predicted_SLG	0.296	-
predicted_SO	0.619	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.047	-0.048
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.103	0.151
predicted_AVG	0.280	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.243	-0.090
predicted_H	0.821	0.131
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.320	-0.000
predicted_R	0.415	-0.014
predicted_RBI	0.283	0.043
predicted_SLG	0.296	0.000
predicted_SO	0.392	-0.227

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.10), rates preserved: AVG=0.264 HR/AB=0.003

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	0.2500	0.2941	0.2500	0.2500	0.0000	0.0625	0.0625	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	10.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	4.000	1.000	4.000	0.3030	0.3235	0.3030	0.3030	0.0000	0.1212	0.0303	0.1212
season	0.20	21	-	62.000	19.000	2.000	1.000	8.000	9.000	7.000	13.000	0.3065	0.3714	0.3871	0.3065	0.0161	0.1290	0.1129	0.2097

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0210
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.1850
predicted_AVG	0.2798
predicted_BB	0.1950
predicted_H	0.8910
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0100
predicted_OBP	0.3198
predicted_R	0.4070
predicted_RBI	0.3070
predicted_SLG	0.2960
predicted_SO	0.2690

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0950	0.0210	0.0469	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.9520	3.1850	3.1035	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2800	0.2798	0.2799	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.1950	0.2433	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6900	0.8910	0.8206	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0100	0.0100	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3200	0.3198	0.3199	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4290	0.4070	0.4147	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2400	0.3070	0.2835	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2960	0.2960	0.2960	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6190	0.2690	0.3915	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.306

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260504_LAD@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	808975
playerID	808975
playerName	Hyeseong Kim
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	LAD
teamID	14

Alex Freeland (690976) · BATTER · 2B · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 28

All-history rows before 20260506: 28

System season_avg: 0.2590

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2588

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.036	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.036	1.000	0.964	3.000
predicted_AVG	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.259	0.000	-0.259	0.000
predicted_BB	0.357	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.357	2.000	-0.357	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.870	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.786	0.000	-0.786	0.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.451	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.667	-0.333	-0.667
predicted_R	0.357	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.357	0.000	-0.357	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.540	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.376	0.000	-0.376	0.000
predicted_SO	0.929	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.929	0.000	-0.929	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.036	-
predicted_AVG	0.350	-
predicted_BB	0.357	-
predicted_H	0.870	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.451	-
predicted_R	0.357	-
predicted_RBI	0.190	-
predicted_SLG	0.540	-
predicted_SO	0.929	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.112	-0.031
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.855	-0.181
predicted_AVG	0.350	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.466	0.109
predicted_H	0.932	0.062
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.138	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.451	-0.000
predicted_R	0.381	0.024
predicted_RBI	0.203	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.540	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.587	-0.343

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.04), rates preserved: AVG=0.307 HR/AB=0.046

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	13.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	0.3846	0.5000	0.6154	0.3846	0.0769	0.0769	0.2308	0.0769
last_10	0.35	10	-	28.000	10.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	5.000	4.000	0.3571	0.4545	0.5357	0.3571	0.0357	0.0714	0.1786	0.1429
season	0.20	28	-	85.000	22.000	4.000	2.000	7.000	10.000	10.000	26.000	0.2588	0.3333	0.3765	0.2588	0.0235	0.0824	0.1177	0.3059

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0950
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.7570
predicted_AVG	0.3498
predicted_BB	0.5240
predicted_H	0.9650
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1430
predicted_OBP	0.4507
predicted_R	0.3940
predicted_RBI	0.2100
predicted_SLG	0.5397
predicted_SO	0.4020

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.0950	0.1118	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0360	2.7570	2.8547	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3500	0.3498	0.3499	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3570	0.5240	0.4656	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8700	0.9650	0.9317	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1430	0.1384	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4510	0.4507	0.4508	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3570	0.3940	0.3810	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1900	0.2100	0.2030	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5400	0.5397	0.5398	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9290	0.4020	0.5865	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.259

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	1
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260505_LAD@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	690976
playerID	690976
playerName	Alex Freeland
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	LAD
teamID	14

Shohei Ohtani (660271) · BATTER · DH · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 36

All-history rows before 20260506: 36

System season_avg: 0.2400

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2400

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.788	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.472	0.000	0.528	4.000
predicted_AVG	0.116	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.240	-	-0.240	-
predicted_BB	0.788	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.722	0.000	0.278	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.410	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.833	0.000	-0.833	0.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.342	0.200	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.382	-	-0.182	-
predicted_R	0.697	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.639	0.000	-0.639	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.389	0.000	-0.389	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.203	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.432	-	-0.432	-
predicted_SO	1.091	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.788	-
predicted_AVG	0.116	-
predicted_BB	0.788	-
predicted_H	0.410	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.342	-
predicted_R	0.697	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.203	-
predicted_SO	1.091	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.131	-0.051
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.632	-0.156
predicted_AVG	0.116	0.000
predicted_BB	0.962	0.174
predicted_H	0.411	0.001
predicted_HBP	0.151	-
predicted_HR	0.069	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.342	-0.000
predicted_R	0.630	-0.067
predicted_RBI	0.275	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.203	0.000
predicted_SO	0.983	-0.108

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.109 HR/AB=0.018

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=23.0, BvP AVG=0.217)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	4.000	0.0000	0.2917	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0588	0.3529	0.2353
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	8.000	10.000	10.000	0.1944	0.3830	0.3333	0.1944	0.0278	0.0833	0.2778	0.2778
season	0.20	33	-	125.000	30.000	6.000	6.000	14.000	23.000	26.000	36.000	0.2400	0.3822	0.4320	0.2400	0.0480	0.1120	0.2080	0.2880

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1030
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.5480
predicted_AVG	0.1160
predicted_BB	1.0560
predicted_H	0.4120
predicted_HBP	0.1510
predicted_HR	0.0690
predicted_OBP	0.3418
predicted_R	0.5940
predicted_RBI	0.2770
predicted_SLG	0.2031
predicted_SO	0.9250

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1820	0.1030	0.1306	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7880	3.5480	3.6320	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1160	0.1160	0.1160	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7880	1.0560	0.9622	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4100	0.4120	0.4113	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1510	0.1510	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0690	0.0694	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3420	0.3418	0.3419	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6970	0.5940	0.6300	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.2770	0.2746	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2030	0.2031	0.2031	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0910	0.9250	0.9831	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.24

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	26
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	0.97
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	7
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	7.0
Pitching_Pitches	89
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	8
Pitching_Strikes	62
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_LAD@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	660271
playerID	660271
playerName	Shohei Ohtani
pos	TWP
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	LAD
teamID	14

Max Muncy (571970) · BATTER · 3B · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 33

All-history rows before 20260506: 33

System season_avg: 0.2870

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2870

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.152	2.000	2.000	Hitting_2B	0.152	0.000	1.848	2.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.485	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.485	3.000	0.515	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.268	0.750	0.750	Hitting_AVG	0.287	0.000	0.463	0.750
predicted_BB	0.606	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.606	1.000	-0.606	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.870	3.000	3.000	Hitting_H	1.000	0.000	2.000	3.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.273	0.000	-0.273	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.436	0.750	0.750	Hitting_OBP	0.393	0.250	0.357	0.500
predicted_R	0.727	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.727	0.000	0.273	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	0.394	0.000	1.606	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.421	1.250	1.250	Hitting_SLG	0.565	0.000	0.685	1.250
predicted_SO	0.939	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.939	0.000	-0.939	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.152	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.485	-
predicted_AVG	0.268	-
predicted_BB	0.606	-
predicted_H	0.870	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.436	-
predicted_R	0.727	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.421	-
predicted_SO	0.939	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.201	0.049
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.256	-0.229
predicted_AVG	0.268	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.834	0.228
predicted_H	0.849	-0.021
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.086	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.436	0.000
predicted_R	0.492	-0.235
predicted_RBI	0.407	-0.013
predicted_SLG	0.421	0.000
predicted_SO	0.713	-0.226

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.48), rates preserved: AVG=0.244 HR/AB=0.025

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	2.000	2.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	6.000	3.000	0.2667	0.4762	0.3333	0.2667	0.0000	0.1333	0.4000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	-	31.000	8.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	8.000	4.000	0.2581	0.4103	0.4516	0.2581	0.0323	0.1290	0.2581	0.1290
season	0.20	33	-	115.000	33.000	5.000	9.000	13.000	24.000	20.000	31.000	0.2870	0.3926	0.5652	0.2870	0.0783	0.1130	0.1739	0.2696

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2270
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.1320
predicted_AVG	0.2677
predicted_BB	0.9560
predicted_H	0.8380
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0840
predicted_OBP	0.4364
predicted_R	0.3660
predicted_RBI	0.4000
predicted_SLG	0.4211
predicted_SO	0.5920

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1520	0.2270	0.2008	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4850	3.1320	3.2555	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2680	0.2677	0.2678	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6060	0.9560	0.8335	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8700	0.8380	0.8492	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.0840	0.0861	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4360	0.4364	0.4363	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7270	0.3660	0.4923	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.4000	0.4070	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4210	0.4211	0.4211	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9390	0.5920	0.7134	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	3
2B	2
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.287

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260505_LAD@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	571970
playerID	571970
playerName	Max Muncy
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	LAD
teamID	14

Andy Pages (681624) · BATTER · CF · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 35

All-history rows before 20260506: 35

System season_avg: 0.3280

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3282

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.229	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.229	0.000	0.771	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.743	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.743	4.000	-0.743	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.331	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.328	0.750	0.005	-0.417
predicted_BB	0.257	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.257	0.000	0.743	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_H	1.080	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.229	3.000	-0.229	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.362	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.371	0.750	0.129	-0.250
predicted_R	0.543	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.543	0.000	0.457	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.460	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.771	0.000	0.229	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.171	1.000	-0.171	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.415	0.667	0.667	Hitting_SLG	0.504	0.750	0.163	-0.083
predicted_SO	0.886	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.886	0.000	-0.886	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.229	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.743	-
predicted_AVG	0.331	-
predicted_BB	0.257	-
predicted_H	1.080	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.362	-
predicted_R	0.543	-
predicted_RBI	0.460	-
predicted_SLG	0.415	-
predicted_SO	0.886	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.237	0.008
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.854	0.111
predicted_AVG	0.331	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.228	-0.029
predicted_H	1.220	0.140
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.026	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.362	0.000
predicted_R	0.572	0.029
predicted_RBI	0.517	0.057
predicted_SLG	0.415	0.000
predicted_SO	0.842	-0.044

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.85), rates preserved: AVG=0.316 HR/AB=0.007

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	0.3500	0.3810	0.4000	0.3500	0.0000	0.1000	0.0500	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	12.000	3.000	0.000	6.000	6.000	2.000	8.000	0.3077	0.3333	0.3846	0.3077	0.0000	0.1538	0.0513	0.2051
season	0.20	35	-	131.000	43.000	8.000	5.000	27.000	19.000	9.000	31.000	0.3282	0.3706	0.5038	0.3282	0.0382	0.2061	0.0687	0.2366

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2410
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.9140
predicted_AVG	0.3308
predicted_BB	0.2120
predicted_H	1.2950
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0300
predicted_OBP	0.3622
predicted_R	0.5880
predicted_RBI	0.5480
predicted_SLG	0.4154
predicted_SO	0.8180

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2290	0.2410	0.2368	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7430	3.9140	3.8542	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3310	0.3308	0.3309	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2570	0.2120	0.2278	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0800	1.2950	1.2197	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0300	0.0265	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3620	0.3622	0.3621	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5430	0.5880	0.5722	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4600	0.5480	0.5172	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4150	0.4154	0.4153	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8860	0.8180	0.8418	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.328

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.75
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260505_LAD@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	681624
playerID	681624
playerName	Andy Pages
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	LAD
teamID	14

Tyler Glasnow (607192) · PITCHER · Starter · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 6

All-history rows before 20260506: 6

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.833	2.000	1.167	1.000
predicted_IP	4.000	4.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	6.367	5.200	-2.367	-1.200
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	-	Pitching_SO	7.833	9.000	-3.833	-5.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	32.667	9.000	15.000	12.000	41.000	4.000	2.4796	0.8265	0.2755	0.4592	0.3674	1.2551	0.1225
last_10	0.35	6	38.667	11.000	19.000	13.000	47.000	4.000	2.5603	0.8276	0.2845	0.4914	0.3362	1.2155	0.1035
season	0.20	6	38.667	11.000	19.000	13.000	47.000	4.000	2.5603	0.8276	0.2845	0.4914	0.3362	1.2155	0.1035

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.2710
predicted_ER	1.8190
predicted_ERA	2.5240
predicted_H	3.0920
predicted_HR	0.7260
predicted_IP	6.4840
predicted_SO	7.9970
predicted_WHIP	0.8271

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	2.2710	2.5261	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	1.8190	2.2323	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.5240	2.5240	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	3.0920	2.7098	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.7260	0.8219	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.0000	6.4840	5.6146	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	4.0000	7.9970	6.5981	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.8271	0.8271	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.0
H	2
R	3
ER	3
BB	3
SO	4
HR	1
BF	17
Pitches	79

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	1
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	6
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	24
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	2.56
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	4
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.2
Pitching_Pitches	92
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	9
Pitching_Strikes	56
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260429_MIA@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	607192
playerID	607192
playerName	Tyler Glasnow
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	LAD
teamID	14

Alex Vesia (681911) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 15

All-history rows before 20260506: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.767	1.000	0.233	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.067	1.000	-1.067	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	6.000	4.5000	1.2500	0.5000	0.5000	0.7500	1.5000
last_10	0.35	10	7.667	2.000	2.000	4.000	14.000	2.3478	0.7826	0.2609	0.2609	0.5217	1.8261
season	0.20	15	12.667	2.000	4.000	6.000	16.000	1.4211	0.7895	0.1579	0.3158	0.4737	1.2632

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4900
predicted_ER	0.2770
predicted_ERA	3.1309
predicted_H	0.3030
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	0.7970
predicted_SO	1.2490
predicted_WHIP	0.9943

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4900	0.3185	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2770	0.1801	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.1309	3.1309	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.3030	0.1970	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.7970	0.8680	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.2490	0.8119	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9943	0.9943	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	9

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.42
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_LAD@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	681911
playerID	681911
playerName	Alex Vesia
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAD
teamID	14

Blake Treinen (595014) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 13

All-history rows before 20260506: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.308	0.000	-0.308	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.662	1.000	0.338	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.923	3.000	0.077	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.333	1.000	5.000	0.000	7.000	1.000	2.0769	1.1538	0.2308	1.1539	0.0000	1.6154	0.2308
last_10	0.35	10	8.000	1.000	6.000	3.000	10.000	1.000	1.1250	1.1250	0.1250	0.7500	0.3750	1.2500	0.1250
season	0.20	12	10.000	1.000	7.000	3.000	12.000	1.000	0.9000	1.0000	0.1000	0.7000	0.3000	1.2000	0.1000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1600
predicted_ER	0.1400
predicted_ERA	1.5084
predicted_H	0.7710
predicted_HR	0.1400
predicted_IP	0.8370
predicted_SO	1.1750
predicted_WHIP	1.1130

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1600	0.1040	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1400	0.0910	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.5084	1.5084	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.7710	0.8511	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1400	0.0910	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.8370	0.8941	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1750	1.1138	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1130	1.1130	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.60
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_LAD@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	595014
playerID	595014
playerName	Blake Treinen
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAD
teamID	14

Jack Dreyer (676263) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 15

All-history rows before 20260506: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.913	1.000	0.087	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.267	2.000	-1.267	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	4.000	1.000	8.000	0.000	0.0000	1.0000	0.0000	0.8000	0.2000	1.6000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	11.000	3.000	7.000	2.000	15.000	1.000	2.4545	0.8182	0.2727	0.6364	0.1818	1.3636	0.0909
season	0.20	15	15.333	5.000	11.000	5.000	19.000	1.000	2.9348	1.0435	0.3261	0.7174	0.3261	1.2391	0.0652

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2270
predicted_ER	0.1670
predicted_ERA	1.4460
predicted_H	0.7550
predicted_HR	0.0470
predicted_IP	1.0390
predicted_SO	1.5020
predicted_WHIP	0.9451

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2270	0.1476	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1670	0.1086	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.4460	1.4460	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7550	0.4908	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0470	0.0306	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0390	1.0253	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.5020	0.9763	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9451	0.9451	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	7

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.93
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_LAD@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	676263
playerID	676263
playerName	Jack Dreyer
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAD
teamID	14

Tanner Scott (656945) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 16

All-history rows before 20260506: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.188	0.000	-0.188	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.838	1.000	0.162	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.938	2.000	0.062	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.667	2.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	1.000	3.8571	0.8571	0.4286	0.6429	0.2143	1.2857	0.2143
last_10	0.35	10	9.667	2.000	4.000	2.000	9.000	1.000	1.8621	0.6207	0.2069	0.4138	0.2069	0.9310	0.1035
season	0.20	16	14.333	3.000	8.000	2.000	15.000	2.000	1.8837	0.6977	0.2093	0.5581	0.1395	1.0465	0.1395

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1840
predicted_ER	0.2880
predicted_ERA	2.7642
predicted_H	0.5120
predicted_HR	0.1510
predicted_IP	0.9370
predicted_SO	1.0440
predicted_WHIP	0.7425

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1840	0.1196	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2880	0.1872	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.7642	2.7642	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.5120	0.3328	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1510	0.0982	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.9370	0.9591	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0440	1.0286	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.7425	0.7425	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	12

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.88
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_LAD@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	656945
playerID	656945
playerName	Tanner Scott
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAD
teamID	14

Will Klein (694361) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 10

All-history rows before 20260506: 10

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.350	1.200	-0.350	-0.200
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.500	0.000	-1.500	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 10

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	7.000	4.000	9.000	2.000	6.000	5.1429	1.5714	0.5714	1.2857	0.2857	0.8571
last_10	0.35	10	14.667	5.000	15.000	5.000	15.000	3.0682	1.3636	0.3409	1.0227	0.3409	1.0227
season	0.20	10	14.667	5.000	15.000	5.000	15.000	3.0682	1.3636	0.3409	1.0227	0.3409	1.0227

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4540
predicted_ER	0.6390
predicted_ERA	4.0018
predicted_H	1.6390
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.4370
predicted_SO	1.3620
predicted_WHIP	1.4571

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4540	0.2951	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.6390	0.4153	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.0018	4.0018	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.6390	1.0654	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.4370	1.2841	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.3620	0.8853	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4571	1.4571	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	10
Season rows before report date	10
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	10
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	9

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	3.07
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.2
Pitching_Pitches	25
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	15
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_LAD@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	694361
playerID	694361
playerName	Will Klein
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAD
teamID	14

Home Team: HOU

César Salazar (663967) · BATTER · C · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 0

All-history rows before 20260506: 0

System season_avg: 0.0000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): -

Diff (system - data): -

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	-	-	-	-
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	-	-	-	-
predicted_AB	0.000	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	-	-	-	-
predicted_AVG	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	-	-	-	-
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	-	-	-	-
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	-	-	-	-
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	-	-	-	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	-	-	-	-
predicted_OBP	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	-	-	-	-
predicted_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	-	-	-	-
predicted_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	-	-	-	-
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	-	-	-	-
predicted_SLG	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	-	-	-	-
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	-	-	-	-

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw XGBoost model output

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	0.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.000	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.000	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.000	-
predicted_SLG	0.000	-
predicted_SO	0.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.475	2.475
predicted_AVG	0.000	0.000
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.000	0.000
predicted_R	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.000	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.47), rates preserved: AVG=0.000 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 0

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Total PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
last_10	0.35	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
season	0.20	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.8070
predicted_BB	0.0000
predicted_H	0.0000
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_R	0.0000
predicted_RBI	0.0000
predicted_SO	0.0000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	0.0000	3.8070	2.4746	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.0000	-	0.0000	model_only
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.0000	-	0.0000	model_only
predicted_R	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.0000	-	0.0000	model_only
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	0
Season rows before report date	0
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	0
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.0

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

No historical data found for this player before report date.

Zach Dezenzo (701305) · BATTER · LF · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 0

All-history rows before 20260506: 0

System season_avg: 0.0000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): -

Diff (system - data): -

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	-	-	-	-
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	-	-	-	-
predicted_AB	0.000	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	-	-	-	-
predicted_AVG	0.000	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	-	-	-	-
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	-	-	-	-
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	-	-	-	-
predicted_H	0.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	-	-	-	-
predicted_HR	0.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	-	-	-	-
predicted_OBP	0.000	0.333	0.333	Hitting_OBP	-	-	-	-
predicted_R	0.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	-	-	-	-
predicted_RBI	0.000	3.000	3.000	Hitting_RBI	-	-	-	-
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	-	-	-	-
predicted_SLG	0.000	1.333	1.333	Hitting_SLG	-	-	-	-
predicted_SO	0.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	-	-	-	-

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw XGBoost model output

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	0.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.000	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.000	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.000	-
predicted_SLG	0.000	-
predicted_SO	0.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.475	2.475
predicted_AVG	0.000	0.000
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.000	0.000
predicted_R	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.000	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.47), rates preserved: AVG=0.000 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	3.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	3.000	3.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 0

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Total PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
last_10	0.35	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
season	0.20	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.8070
predicted_BB	0.0000
predicted_H	0.0000
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_R	0.0000
predicted_RBI	0.0000
predicted_SO	0.0000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	0.0000	3.8070	2.4746	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.0000	-	0.0000	model_only
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.0000	-	0.0000	model_only
predicted_R	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.0000	-	0.0000	model_only
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	0
Season rows before report date	0
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	0
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	3
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.0

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

No historical data found for this player before report date.

Brice Matthews (694728) · BATTER · 2B · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 20

All-history rows before 20260506: 20

System season_avg: 0.2190

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2188

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	-0.200
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.210	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.200	3.000	-0.200
predicted_AVG	0.226	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.219	0.000	-0.219
predicted_BB	0.300	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.300	1.000	0.700
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.730	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.700	0.000	-0.700
predicted_HR	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.150	0.000	-0.150
predicted_OBP	0.304	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.282	0.250	-0.032
predicted_R	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.350	0.000	-0.350
predicted_RBI	0.630	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.550	0.000	-0.550
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.100	0.000	-0.100
predicted_SLG	0.406	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.422	0.000	-0.422
predicted_SO	1.250	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.250	1.000	-0.250

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.210	-
predicted_AVG	0.226	-
predicted_BB	0.300	-
predicted_H	0.730	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.304	-
predicted_R	0.350	-
predicted_RBI	0.630	-
predicted_SLG	0.406	-
predicted_SO	1.250	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.122	-0.078
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.470	0.260
predicted_AVG	0.226	0.000
predicted_BB	0.407	0.107
predicted_H	0.786	0.056
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.183	0.013
predicted_OBP	0.304	0.000
predicted_R	0.376	0.026
predicted_RBI	0.683	0.053
predicted_SLG	0.406	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.228	-0.022

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.47), rates preserved: AVG=0.226 HR/AB=0.053

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	6.000	0.2105	0.3043	0.3684	0.2105	0.0526	0.2105	0.1579	0.3158
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	9.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	4.000	4.000	12.000	0.2500	0.3171	0.4444	0.2500	0.0556	0.1944	0.1111	0.3333
season	0.20	20	-	64.000	14.000	4.000	3.000	11.000	7.000	6.000	25.000	0.2188	0.2817	0.4219	0.2188	0.0469	0.1719	0.0938	0.3906

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0800
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.6100
predicted_AVG	0.2260
predicted_BB	0.4650
predicted_H	0.8160
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1900
predicted_OBP	0.3043
predicted_R	0.3900
predicted_RBI	0.7120
predicted_SLG	0.4057
predicted_SO	1.2160

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.0800	0.1220	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2100	3.6100	3.4700	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2260	0.2260	0.2260	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3000	0.4650	0.4073	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7300	0.8160	0.7859	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.1900	0.1830	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3040	0.3043	0.3042	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3500	0.3900	0.3760	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6300	0.7120	0.6833	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4060	0.4057	0.4058	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2500	1.2160	1.2279	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.219

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260504_LAD@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	694728
playerID	694728
playerName	Brice Matthews
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	HOU
teamID	11

Isaac Paredes (670623) · BATTER · 3B · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 31

All-history rows before 20260506: 31

System season_avg: 0.2650

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2655

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.194	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.194	0.000	-0.194	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.645	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.645	2.000	-0.645	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.317	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.265	0.000	0.068	0.333
predicted_BB	0.419	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.419	0.000	0.581	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.120	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.968	0.000	0.032	1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.097	0.000	-0.097	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.442	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.366	0.333	0.134	0.167
predicted_R	0.516	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.516	0.000	0.484	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.260	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.484	0.000	-0.484	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.447	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.398	0.000	-0.065	0.333
predicted_SO	0.677	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.677	1.000	-0.677	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.194	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.645	-
predicted_AVG	0.317	-
predicted_BB	0.419	-
predicted_H	1.120	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.442	-
predicted_R	0.516	-
predicted_RBI	0.260	-
predicted_SLG	0.447	-
predicted_SO	0.677	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.261	0.067
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.527	-0.118
predicted_AVG	0.317	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.558	0.139
predicted_H	1.105	-0.015
predicted_HBP	0.161	-
predicted_HR	0.051	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.442	0.000
predicted_R	0.457	-0.059
predicted_RBI	0.257	-0.003
predicted_SLG	0.447	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.680	0.003

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.65), rates preserved: AVG=0.303 HR/AB=0.014

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	0.3125	0.4762	0.4375	0.3125	0.0000	0.0000	0.2500	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	13.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	7.000	5.000	5.000	0.3514	0.4419	0.4865	0.3513	0.0270	0.1351	0.1351	0.1351
season	0.20	31	-	113.000	30.000	6.000	3.000	15.000	16.000	13.000	21.000	0.2655	0.3664	0.3982	0.2655	0.0266	0.1327	0.1150	0.1858

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2970
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.4640
predicted_AVG	0.3167
predicted_BB	0.6330
predicted_H	1.0970
predicted_HBP	0.1610
predicted_HR	0.0510
predicted_OBP	0.4422
predicted_R	0.4250
predicted_RBI	0.2560
predicted_SLG	0.4468
predicted_SO	0.6820

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1940	0.2970	0.2610	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6450	3.4640	3.5274	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3170	0.3167	0.3168	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4190	0.6330	0.5581	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1200	1.0970	1.1050	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1610	0.1610	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0510	0.0507	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4420	0.4422	0.4421	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5160	0.4250	0.4568	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2600	0.2560	0.2574	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4470	0.4468	0.4469	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6770	0.6820	0.6803	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.265

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260505_LAD@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	670623
playerID	670623
playerName	Isaac Paredes
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	HOU
teamID	11

Cam Smith (701358) · BATTER · RF · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 34

All-history rows before 20260506: 34

System season_avg: 0.2210

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2213

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.176	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.176	0.000	-0.176	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.588	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.588	3.000	0.412	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.223	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.221	0.000	-0.221	0.000
predicted_BB	0.412	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.412	0.000	-0.412	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.750	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.794	0.000	-0.794	0.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.088	0.000	-0.088	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.268	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.309	0.000	-0.309	0.000
predicted_R	0.441	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.441	0.000	-0.441	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.441	0.000	-0.441	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.088	0.000	-0.088	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.308	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.344	0.000	-0.344	0.000
predicted_SO	1.147	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.147	0.000	-1.147	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.176	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.588	-
predicted_AVG	0.223	-
predicted_BB	0.412	-
predicted_H	0.750	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.268	-
predicted_R	0.441	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.308	-
predicted_SO	1.147	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.165	-0.011
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.734	0.146
predicted_AVG	0.223	0.000
predicted_BB	0.272	-0.140
predicted_H	0.815	0.065
predicted_HBP	0.049	-
predicted_HR	0.053	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.268	0.000
predicted_R	0.318	-0.123
predicted_RBI	0.460	0.040
predicted_SLG	0.308	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.270	0.123

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.73), rates preserved: AVG=0.218 HR/AB=0.014

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	6.000	0.2500	0.2500	0.3000	0.2500	0.0000	0.1000	0.0000	0.3000
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	2.000	3.000	16.000	0.1892	0.2683	0.2973	0.1892	0.0270	0.1622	0.0811	0.4324
season	0.20	34	-	122.000	27.000	6.000	3.000	15.000	15.000	14.000	39.000	0.2213	0.3094	0.3443	0.2213	0.0246	0.1230	0.1148	0.3197

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1590
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.8130
predicted_AVG	0.2230
predicted_BB	0.1960
predicted_H	0.8500
predicted_HBP	0.0490
predicted_HR	0.0550
predicted_OBP	0.2683
predicted_R	0.2520
predicted_RBI	0.4820
predicted_SLG	0.3079
predicted_SO	1.3360

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1760	0.1590	0.1650	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5880	3.8130	3.7343	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2230	0.2230	0.2230	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4120	0.1960	0.2716	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7500	0.8500	0.8150	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0490	0.0490	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0550	0.0533	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2680	0.2683	0.2682	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4410	0.2520	0.3181	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.4820	0.4603	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3080	0.3079	0.3079	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1470	1.3360	1.2698	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.221

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260505_LAD@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	701358
playerID	701358
playerName	Cam Smith
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	HOU
teamID	11

Braden Shewmake (669699) · BATTER · SS · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 3

All-history rows before 20260506: 3

System season_avg: 0.2730

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2727

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.667	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.667	3.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.273	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.273	0.667	-0.273	-0.667
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.830	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.000	2.000	-1.000	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.273	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.273	0.667	-0.273	-0.667
predicted_R	0.667	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.667	1.000	-0.667	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.545	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.545	1.667	-0.545	-1.667
predicted_SO	1.000	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.667	-
predicted_AVG	0.273	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.830	-
predicted_HR	0.280	-
predicted_OBP	0.273	-
predicted_R	0.667	-
predicted_RBI	0.280	-
predicted_SLG	0.545	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.667	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.273	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.941	0.111
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.315	0.034
predicted_OBP	0.273	-0.000
predicted_R	0.667	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.315	0.034
predicted_SLG	0.545	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	0.000

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.67), rates preserved: AVG=0.256 HR/AB=0.086

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 3

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	3	-	11.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	0.2727	0.2727	0.5455	0.2727	0.0909	0.0909	0.2727
last_10	0.35	3	-	11.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	0.2727	0.2727	0.5455	0.2727	0.0909	0.0909	0.2727
season	0.20	3	-	11.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	0.2727	0.2727	0.5455	0.2727	0.0909	0.0909	0.2727

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.6670
predicted_AVG	0.2727
predicted_BB	0.0000
predicted_H	1.0000
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.3330
predicted_OBP	0.2727
predicted_R	0.6670
predicted_RBI	0.3330
predicted_SLG	0.5455
predicted_SO	1.0000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6670	3.6670	3.6670	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2730	0.2727	0.2728	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8300	1.0000	0.9405	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2800	0.3330	0.3145	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2730	0.2727	0.2728	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6670	0.6670	0.6670	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2800	0.3330	0.3145	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5450	0.5455	0.5453	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	3
Season rows before report date	3
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	3
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.273

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260505_LAD@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	669699
playerID	669699
playerName	Braden Shewmake
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	HOU
teamID	11

Yordan Alvarez (670541) · BATTER · DH · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 37

All-history rows before 20260506: 37

System season_avg: 0.3240

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3237

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_2B	0.243	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.243	0.000	-0.243
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.757	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.757	4.000	0.243
predicted_AVG	0.214	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.324	0.000	-0.324
predicted_BB	0.595	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.595	0.000	-0.595
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.780	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.216	0.000	-1.216
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.324	0.000	-0.324
predicted_OBP	0.292	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.428	0.000	-0.428
predicted_R	0.703	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.703	0.000	-0.703
predicted_RBI	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.730	0.000	-0.730
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.027	0.000	-0.027
predicted_SLG	0.313	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.647	0.000	-0.647
predicted_SO	0.541	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.541	1.000	0.459

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.243	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.757	-
predicted_AVG	0.214	-
predicted_BB	0.595	-
predicted_H	0.780	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.292	-
predicted_R	0.703	-
predicted_RBI	0.170	-
predicted_SLG	0.313	-
predicted_SO	0.541	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.142	-0.101
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.964	0.207
predicted_AVG	0.214	0.000
predicted_BB	0.417	-0.178
predicted_H	0.841	0.061
predicted_HBP	0.146	-
predicted_HR	0.100	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.292	0.000
predicted_R	0.538	-0.165
predicted_RBI	0.185	0.015
predicted_SLG	0.313	0.000
predicted_SO	0.810	0.269

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.96), rates preserved: AVG=0.212 HR/AB=0.025

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	0.1429	0.2174	0.1429	0.1429	0.0000	0.0000	0.0476	0.2857
last_10	0.35	10	-	41.000	10.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	3.000	9.000	0.2439	0.3111	0.3415	0.2439	0.0244	0.0244	0.0732	0.2195
season	0.20	37	-	139.000	45.000	9.000	12.000	27.000	26.000	22.000	20.000	0.3237	0.4277	0.6475	0.3237	0.0863	0.1942	0.1583	0.1439

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0880
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.0760
predicted_AVG	0.2144
predicted_BB	0.3210
predicted_H	0.8740
predicted_HBP	0.1460
predicted_HR	0.1050
predicted_OBP	0.2923
predicted_R	0.4490
predicted_RBI	0.1930
predicted_SLG	0.3133
predicted_SO	0.9550

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2430	0.0880	0.1422	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7570	4.0760	3.9644	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2140	0.2144	0.2143	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5950	0.3210	0.4169	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7800	0.8740	0.8411	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1460	0.1460	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.1050	0.0998	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2920	0.2923	0.2922	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7030	0.4490	0.5379	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1700	0.1930	0.1850	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3130	0.3133	0.3132	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5410	0.9550	0.8101	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.324

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260505_LAD@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	670541
playerID	670541
playerName	Yordan Alvarez
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	HOU
teamID	11

Zach Cole (805904) · BATTER · CF · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 2

All-history rows before 20260506: 2

System season_avg: 0.1430

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1429

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.500	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	3.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.143	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.143	0.000	0.107	0.250
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.430	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_HR	0.430	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.143	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.143	0.000	0.107	0.250
predicted_R	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.430	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.571	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.571	0.000	-0.321	0.250
predicted_SO	2.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	2.000	2.000	-2.000	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.143	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.430	-
predicted_HR	0.430	-
predicted_OBP	0.143	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.571	-
predicted_SO	2.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.500	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.143	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.475	0.045
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.475	0.045
predicted_OBP	0.143	-0.000
predicted_R	0.500	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.475	0.045
predicted_SLG	0.571	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	0.000

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.136 HR/AB=0.136

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	-1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	2	-	7.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	0.1429	0.1429	0.5714	0.1429	0.1429	0.1429	0.5714
last_10	0.35	2	-	7.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	0.1429	0.1429	0.5714	0.1429	0.1429	0.1429	0.5714
season	0.20	2	-	7.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	0.1429	0.1429	0.5714	0.1429	0.1429	0.1429	0.5714

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.5000
predicted_AVG	0.1429
predicted_BB	0.0000
predicted_H	0.5000
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.5000
predicted_OBP	0.1429
predicted_R	0.5000
predicted_RBI	0.5000
predicted_SLG	0.5714
predicted_SO	2.0000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5000	3.5000	3.5000	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1430	0.1429	0.1429	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4300	0.5000	0.4755	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.4300	0.5000	0.4755	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1430	0.1429	0.1429	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.5000	0.5000	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.5000	0.4755	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5710	0.5714	0.5713	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	2.0000	2.0000	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.143

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF-LF
gameID	20260505_LAD@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	805904
playerID	805904
playerName	Zach Cole
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	HOU
teamID	11

Christian Walker (572233) · BATTER · 1B · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 36

All-history rows before 20260506: 36

System season_avg: 0.3110

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3106

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.667	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.667	3.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.386	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.311	0.333	-0.311	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.389	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.389	0.000	0.611	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.139	1.000	-1.139	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.250	1.000	-0.250	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.455	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.383	0.333	-0.133	-0.083
predicted_R	0.639	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.639	1.000	-0.639	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.720	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.750	1.000	-0.750	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.728	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.583	1.333	-0.583	-1.333
predicted_SO	0.778	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.778	1.000	0.222	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.667	-
predicted_AVG	0.386	-
predicted_BB	0.389	-
predicted_H	1.360	-
predicted_HR	0.370	-
predicted_OBP	0.455	-
predicted_R	0.639	-
predicted_RBI	0.720	-
predicted_SLG	0.728	-
predicted_SO	0.778	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.162	-0.088
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.619	-0.048
predicted_AVG	0.386	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.353	-0.036
predicted_H	1.376	0.016
predicted_HBP	0.139	-
predicted_HR	0.371	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.455	0.000
predicted_R	0.703	0.064
predicted_RBI	0.727	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.728	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.874	0.096

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.67), rates preserved: AVG=0.375 HR/AB=0.101

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	2.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	2.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	7.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	2.000	5.000	0.4118	0.5000	0.7647	0.4118	0.1177	0.1765	0.1177	0.2941
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	15.000	2.000	4.000	9.000	7.000	2.000	9.000	0.3947	0.4390	0.7632	0.3947	0.1053	0.2368	0.0526	0.2368
season	0.20	36	-	132.000	41.000	9.000	9.000	27.000	23.000	14.000	28.000	0.3106	0.3826	0.5833	0.3106	0.0682	0.2046	0.1061	0.2121

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1150
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.5930
predicted_AVG	0.3856
predicted_BB	0.3330
predicted_H	1.3850
predicted_HBP	0.1390
predicted_HR	0.3720
predicted_OBP	0.4552
predicted_R	0.7370
predicted_RBI	0.7300
predicted_SLG	0.7279
predicted_SO	0.9260

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.1150	0.1623	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6670	3.5930	3.6189	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3860	0.3856	0.3857	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3890	0.3330	0.3526	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.3600	1.3850	1.3762	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1390	0.1390	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3700	0.3720	0.3713	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4550	0.4552	0.4551	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6390	0.7370	0.7027	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7200	0.7300	0.7265	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.7280	0.7279	0.7279	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7780	0.9260	0.8742	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.311

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260505_LAD@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	572233
playerID	572233
playerName	Christian Walker
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	HOU
teamID	11

Lance McCullers Jr. (621121) · PITCHER · Starter · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 6

All-history rows before 20260506: 6

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	5.000	5.000	-	Pitching_ER	3.667	3.000	1.333	2.000
predicted_IP	6.000	6.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.183	6.000	0.817	0.000
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	-	Pitching_SO	5.500	9.000	-0.500	-4.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 6.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	24.333	21.000	23.000	16.000	24.000	4.000	7.7671	1.6027	0.8630	0.9452	0.6575	0.9863	0.1644
last_10	0.35	6	31.333	22.000	27.000	17.000	33.000	4.000	6.3191	1.4043	0.7021	0.8617	0.5425	1.0532	0.1277
season	0.20	6	31.333	22.000	27.000	17.000	33.000	4.000	6.3191	1.4043	0.7021	0.8617	0.5425	1.0532	0.1277

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	3.0080
predicted_ER	3.9210
predicted_ERA	6.9707
predicted_H	4.5520
predicted_HR	0.7300
predicted_IP	5.0620
predicted_SO	5.1790
predicted_WHIP	1.4936

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	3.0080	1.9552	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	5.0000	3.9210	4.2987	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	6.9707	6.9707	form_only
predicted_H	9.0000	4.5520	6.1088	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.7300	0.8245	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	6.0000	5.0620	5.3903	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	5.1790	5.1164	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4936	1.4936	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	6.0
H	9
R	5
ER	5
BB	0
SO	5
HR	1
BF	27
Pitches	100

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	4
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	24
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	6.32
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	99
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	9
Pitching_Strikes	57
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260430_HOU@BAL_2
game_type	full
mlbID	621121
playerID	621121
playerName	Lance McCullers Jr.
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	HOU
teamID	11

Bryan King (687911) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 13

All-history rows before 20260506: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.462	1.000	-0.462	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.062	2.000	-0.062	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.154	2.000	-1.154	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.667	4.000	7.000	2.000	3.000	6.3529	1.5882	0.7059	1.2353	0.3529	0.5294
last_10	0.35	10	13.000	5.000	13.000	4.000	10.000	3.4615	1.3077	0.3846	1.0000	0.3077	0.7692
season	0.20	13	15.667	6.000	16.000	5.000	15.000	3.4468	1.3404	0.3830	1.0213	0.3191	0.9575

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3980
predicted_ER	0.6380
predicted_ERA	4.7597
predicted_H	1.3390
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.2060
predicted_SO	0.8430
predicted_WHIP	1.4405

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3980	0.6087	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.6380	0.4147	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.7597	4.7597	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.3390	0.8703	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.2060	1.1339	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.8430	0.5480	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4405	1.4405	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	9
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	3.45
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	37
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	26
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_LAD@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	687911
playerID	687911
playerName	Bryan King
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	HOU
teamID	11

Enyel De Los Santos (660853) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 13

All-history rows before 20260506: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.615	0.000	-0.615
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.969	1.000	0.031
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.923	1.000	0.077

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	4.000	8.000	2.000	5.000	0.000	6.0000	1.6667	0.6667	1.3333	0.3333	0.8333	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	7.000	11.000	3.000	9.000	0.000	6.3000	1.4000	0.7000	1.1000	0.3000	0.9000	0.0000
season	0.20	13	14.000	8.000	15.000	4.000	12.000	1.000	5.1429	1.3571	0.5714	1.0714	0.2857	0.8571	0.0714

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3450
predicted_ER	0.7290
predicted_ERA	5.9336
predicted_H	1.3260
predicted_HR	0.0160
predicted_IP	1.1050
predicted_SO	0.9520
predicted_WHIP	1.5114

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.3450	0.9242	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.7290	0.4738	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.9336	5.9336	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.3260	0.8619	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0160	0.0104	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.1050	1.0682	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9520	0.9688	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5114	1.5114	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	2
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.14
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	20
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	15
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_HOU@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	660853
playerID	660853
playerName	Enyel De Los Santos
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	HOU
teamID	11

Steven Okert (595345) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 18

All-history rows before 20260506: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.444	1.000	-0.444	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.650	0.200	0.350	0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.611	1.000	0.389	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.667	4.000	8.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	9.8182	2.7273	1.0909	2.1818	0.5454	0.5454	0.2727
last_10	0.35	10	7.333	4.000	12.000	3.000	4.000	1.000	4.9091	2.0455	0.5454	1.6364	0.4091	0.5454	0.1364
season	0.20	18	15.667	8.000	15.000	7.000	11.000	2.000	4.5957	1.4043	0.5106	0.9575	0.4468	0.7021	0.1277

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3640
predicted_ER	0.5960
predicted_ERA	7.0555
predicted_H	1.3280
predicted_HR	0.1490
predicted_IP	0.7610
predicted_SO	0.4390
predicted_WHIP	2.2241

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3640	0.5866	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5960	0.3874	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	7.0555	7.0555	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.3280	0.8632	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1490	0.0969	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.7610	0.8447	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.4390	0.6353	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	2.2241	2.2241	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	4.60
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	20
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_LAD@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	595345
playerID	595345
playerName	Steven Okert
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	HOU
teamID	11

20260506_MIL@STL

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "confidence": 0.5759497138479693, "home_win_probability": 0.5759497138479693, "away_win_probability": 0.42405028615203066, "predicted_score_text": "MIL 3 - 5 STL", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to final winner probability with starter-quality caps.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "predicted_score_text": "MIL 5 - 6 STL", "confidence": 0.5759497138479693, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score", "final_prediction_synced": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "MIL 5 - 6 STL", "winner": "STL"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "MIL 3 - 5 STL", "winner": "STL"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": -2, "home_run_delta": -1, "total_run_delta": -3, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"}}

Away Team: MIL

Garrett Mitchell (669003) · BATTER · CF · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 26

All-history rows before 20260506: 26

System season_avg: 0.2310

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2308

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.231	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.231	0.000	-0.231	0.000
predicted_3B	0.038	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.038	0.000	-0.038	0.000
predicted_AB	3.510	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	5.000	0.500	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.183	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.231	0.000	0.019	0.250
predicted_BB	0.692	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.692	0.000	0.308	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_H	0.640	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.808	0.000	0.192	1.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.038	0.000	-0.038	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.294	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.364	0.000	0.036	0.400
predicted_R	0.538	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.538	0.000	-0.538	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.330	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.808	0.000	-0.808	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.192	0.000	-0.192	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.246	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.352	0.000	-0.102	0.250
predicted_SO	1.423	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.423	1.000	-0.423	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.231	-
predicted_3B	0.038	-
predicted_AB	3.510	-
predicted_AVG	0.183	-
predicted_BB	0.692	-
predicted_H	0.640	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.294	-
predicted_R	0.538	-
predicted_RBI	0.330	-
predicted_SLG	0.246	-
predicted_SO	1.423	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.217	-0.014
predicted_3B	0.019	-0.019
predicted_AB	3.835	0.325
predicted_AVG	0.183	0.000
predicted_BB	0.625	-0.067
predicted_H	0.702	0.062
predicted_HBP	0.046	-
predicted_HR	0.009	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.294	0.000
predicted_R	0.602	0.064
predicted_RBI	0.361	0.031
predicted_SLG	0.246	0.000
predicted_SO	1.371	-0.052

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.83), rates preserved: AVG=0.183 HR/AB=0.002

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, BvP AVG=0.400)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 26

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	22.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	7.000	0.1818	0.2800	0.2273	0.1818	0.0000	0.0454	0.1364	0.3182
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	5.000	5.000	12.000	0.1579	0.2727	0.2105	0.1579	0.0000	0.0790	0.1316	0.3158
season	0.20	26	-	91.000	21.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	21.000	14.000	18.000	37.000	0.2308	0.3636	0.3516	0.2308	0.0110	0.2308	0.1978	0.4066

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2090
predicted_3B	0.0090
predicted_AB	4.0100
predicted_AVG	0.1832
predicted_BB	0.5890
predicted_H	0.7350
predicted_HBP	0.0460
predicted_HR	0.0090
predicted_OBP	0.2942
predicted_R	0.6360
predicted_RBI	0.3780
predicted_SLG	0.2463
predicted_SO	1.3430

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2310	0.2090	0.2167	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0380	0.0090	0.0192	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5100	4.0100	3.8350	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1830	0.1832	0.1831	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6920	0.5890	0.6250	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6400	0.7350	0.7017	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0460	0.0460	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0090	0.0094	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2940	0.2942	0.2941	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5380	0.6360	0.6017	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3300	0.3780	0.3612	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2460	0.2463	0.2462	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4230	1.3430	1.3710	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	26
Season rows before report date	26
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	26
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.231

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260504_MIL@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	669003
playerID	669003
playerName	Garrett Mitchell
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	MIL
teamID	16

Sal Frelick (686217) · BATTER · RF · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 29

All-history rows before 20260506: 29

System season_avg: 0.2000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.071	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.069	0.000	-0.069	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.571	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.448	3.000	0.552	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.220	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.200	0.333	0.050	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.464	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.517	1.000	0.483	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.034	0.000	-0.034	0.000
predicted_H	0.640	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.690	1.000	0.310	0.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.103	0.000	-0.103	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.302	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.305	0.500	0.095	-0.100
predicted_R	0.536	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.517	0.000	-0.517	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.310	0.000	-0.310	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.034	0.000	-0.034	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.376	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.310	0.333	-0.060	-0.083
predicted_SO	0.464	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.448	0.000	0.552	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.071	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.571	-
predicted_AVG	0.220	-
predicted_BB	0.464	-
predicted_H	0.640	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.302	-
predicted_R	0.536	-
predicted_RBI	0.200	-
predicted_SLG	0.376	-
predicted_SO	0.464	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.034	-0.037
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.576	0.005
predicted_AVG	0.220	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.431	-0.033
predicted_H	0.735	0.095
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.171	0.021
predicted_OBP	0.302	-0.000
predicted_R	0.565	0.029
predicted_RBI	0.232	0.032
predicted_SLG	0.376	0.000
predicted_SO	0.247	-0.217

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.58), rates preserved: AVG=0.205 HR/AB=0.048

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, BvP AVG=0.111)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	0.000	0.2105	0.2857	0.3684	0.2105	0.0526	0.0526	0.1053	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	8.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	8.000	4.000	1.000	0.2424	0.3243	0.4242	0.2424	0.0606	0.0909	0.1212	0.0303
season	0.20	28	-	100.000	20.000	2.000	3.000	7.000	15.000	13.000	13.000	0.2000	0.2982	0.3100	0.2000	0.0300	0.0700	0.1300	0.1300

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0140
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.5790
predicted_AVG	0.2196
predicted_BB	0.4140
predicted_H	0.7860
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.1820
predicted_OBP	0.3017
predicted_R	0.5810
predicted_RBI	0.2490
predicted_SLG	0.3763
predicted_SO	0.1310

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0710	0.0140	0.0339	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5710	3.5790	3.5762	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2200	0.2196	0.2197	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4640	0.4140	0.4315	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6400	0.7860	0.7349	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1820	0.1708	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3020	0.3017	0.3018	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5360	0.5810	0.5653	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2000	0.2490	0.2319	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3760	0.3763	0.3762	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4640	0.1310	0.2475	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.2

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	1
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260504_MIL@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	686217
playerID	686217
playerName	Sal Frelick
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	MIL
teamID	16

Andrew Vaughn (683734) · BATTER · DH · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 2

All-history rows before 20260506: 2

System season_avg: 0.1250

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1250

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	4.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.125	0.400	0.400	Hitting_AVG	0.125	0.000	0.275	0.400
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.440	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.500	0.000	1.500	2.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.222	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.222	0.200	0.178	0.200
predicted_R	0.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.125	0.400	0.400	Hitting_SLG	0.125	0.000	0.275	0.400
predicted_SO	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.500	1.000	0.500	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.125	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.440	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.222	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.125	-
predicted_SO	0.500	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.125	0.000
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.479	0.039
predicted_HBP	0.500	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.222	0.000
predicted_R	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.479	0.039
predicted_SLG	0.125	0.000
predicted_SO	0.500	0.000

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.120 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total RBI	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	2	-	8.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	0.1250	0.2222	0.1250	0.1250	0.1250	0.1250
last_10	0.35	2	-	8.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	0.1250	0.2222	0.1250	0.1250	0.1250	0.1250
season	0.20	2	-	8.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	0.1250	0.2222	0.1250	0.1250	0.1250	0.1250

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.0000
predicted_AVG	0.1250
predicted_BB	0.0000
predicted_H	0.5000
predicted_HBP	0.5000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.2222
predicted_R	0.0000
predicted_RBI	0.5000
predicted_SLG	0.1250
predicted_SO	0.5000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0000	4.0000	4.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1250	0.1250	0.1250	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4400	0.5000	0.4790	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.5000	0.5000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2220	0.2222	0.2221	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.5000	0.4790	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1250	0.1250	0.1250	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5000	0.5000	0.5000	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.125

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260504_MIL@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	683734
playerID	683734
playerName	Andrew Vaughn
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	MIL
teamID	16

Brice Turang (668930) · BATTER · 2B · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 31

All-history rows before 20260506: 31

System season_avg: 0.3040

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3043

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.258	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.258	0.000	-0.258	0.000
predicted_3B	0.032	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.032	0.000	-0.032	0.000
predicted_AB	3.710	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.710	5.000	-0.710	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.388	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.304	0.600	0.029	-0.267
predicted_BB	0.871	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.871	0.000	0.129	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.065	0.000	-0.065	0.000
predicted_H	1.390	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.129	3.000	-0.129	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.161	1.000	-0.161	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.505	0.600	0.600	Hitting_OBP	0.434	0.600	0.166	0.000
predicted_R	0.903	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.903	1.000	-0.903	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.610	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.710	2.000	-0.710	-2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.226	0.000	-0.226	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.606	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.522	1.200	-0.188	-0.867
predicted_SO	0.968	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.968	1.000	-0.968	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.258	-
predicted_3B	0.032	-
predicted_AB	3.710	-
predicted_AVG	0.388	-
predicted_BB	0.871	-
predicted_H	1.390	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.505	-
predicted_R	0.903	-
predicted_RBI	0.610	-
predicted_SLG	0.606	-
predicted_SO	0.968	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.309	0.051
predicted_3B	0.016	-0.016
predicted_AB	3.734	0.024
predicted_AVG	0.388	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.892	0.021
predicted_H	1.430	0.040
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.154	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.505	-0.000
predicted_R	0.965	0.062
predicted_RBI	0.629	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.606	0.000
predicted_SO	0.789	-0.179

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.73), rates preserved: AVG=0.383 HR/AB=0.041

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	2.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=13.0, BvP AVG=0.385)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	2.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	2.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	-1.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	9.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	6.000	5.000	2.000	0.4737	0.5833	0.7368	0.4737	0.0526	0.2105	0.2632	0.1053
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	12.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	8.000	8.000	9.000	0.3243	0.4444	0.4865	0.3243	0.0270	0.1081	0.2162	0.2432
season	0.20	31	-	115.000	35.000	8.000	1.000	5.000	22.000	28.000	27.000	30.000	0.3043	0.4336	0.5217	0.3044	0.0435	0.1913	0.2348	0.2609

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3360
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.7470
predicted_AVG	0.3875
predicted_BB	0.9030
predicted_H	1.4520
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1570
predicted_OBP	0.5047
predicted_R	0.9980
predicted_RBI	0.6400
predicted_SLG	0.6062
predicted_SO	0.6920

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2580	0.3360	0.3087	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0320	0.0070	0.0158	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7100	3.7470	3.7340	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3880	0.3875	0.3877	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.8710	0.9030	0.8918	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.3900	1.4520	1.4303	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1570	0.1545	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.5050	0.5047	0.5048	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.9030	0.9980	0.9647	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6100	0.6400	0.6295	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6060	0.6062	0.6061	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9680	0.6920	0.7886	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.304

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.6
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	6
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260504_MIL@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	668930
playerID	668930
playerName	Brice Turang
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	MIL
teamID	16

Jake Bauers (641343) · BATTER · 1B · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 28

All-history rows before 20260506: 28

System season_avg: 0.2550

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2547

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.179	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.179	1.000	-0.179	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.786	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.786	2.000	1.214	3.000
predicted_AVG	0.225	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.255	0.500	-0.255	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.464	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.464	1.000	-0.464	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.036	0.000	-0.036	0.000
predicted_H	0.800	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.964	1.000	-0.964	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.179	0.000	-0.179	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.361	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.336	0.667	-0.336	-0.667
predicted_R	0.714	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.714	1.000	-0.714	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.643	0.000	-0.643	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.107	0.000	-0.107	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.327	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.443	1.000	-0.443	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.893	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.893	1.000	0.107	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.179	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.786	-
predicted_AVG	0.225	-
predicted_BB	0.464	-
predicted_H	0.800	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.361	-
predicted_R	0.714	-
predicted_RBI	0.350	-
predicted_SLG	0.327	-
predicted_SO	0.893	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.234	0.055
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.653	-0.133
predicted_AVG	0.225	0.000
predicted_BB	0.660	0.196
predicted_H	0.804	0.004
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.033	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.361	0.000
predicted_R	0.761	0.047
predicted_RBI	0.351	0.001
predicted_SLG	0.327	0.000
predicted_SO	0.973	0.080

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.212 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	5.000	5.000	0.1765	0.3636	0.2353	0.1765	0.0000	0.0588	0.2941	0.2941
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	10.000	4.000	0.000	4.000	8.000	6.000	11.000	0.2703	0.3721	0.3784	0.2703	0.0000	0.1081	0.1622	0.2973
season	0.20	28	-	106.000	27.000	5.000	5.000	18.000	20.000	13.000	25.000	0.2547	0.3361	0.4434	0.2547	0.0472	0.1698	0.1226	0.2359

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2640
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.5820
predicted_AVG	0.2250
predicted_BB	0.7650
predicted_H	0.8060
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0340
predicted_OBP	0.3611
predicted_R	0.7860
predicted_RBI	0.3520
predicted_SLG	0.3270
predicted_SO	1.0160

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1790	0.2640	0.2343	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7860	3.5820	3.6534	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2250	0.2250	0.2250	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4640	0.7650	0.6597	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8000	0.8060	0.8039	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0340	0.0326	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3610	0.3611	0.3611	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7140	0.7860	0.7608	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3500	0.3520	0.3513	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3270	0.3270	0.3270	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8930	1.0160	0.9729	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.255

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260504_MIL@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	641343
playerID	641343
playerName	Jake Bauers
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	MIL
teamID	16

Joey Ortiz (687401) · BATTER · SS · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 22

All-history rows before 20260506: 22

System season_avg: 0.1860

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1857

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.182	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.182	2.000	0.818	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.157	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.186	0.000	-0.186	0.000
predicted_BB	0.364	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.364	0.000	-0.364	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_H	0.410	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.591	0.000	-0.591	0.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.268	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.266	0.000	-0.266	0.000
predicted_R	0.409	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.409	0.000	-0.409	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.580	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.364	1.000	-0.364	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.157	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.186	0.000	-0.186	0.000
predicted_SO	0.727	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.727	1.000	1.273	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.182	-
predicted_AVG	0.157	-
predicted_BB	0.364	-
predicted_H	0.410	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.268	-
predicted_R	0.409	-
predicted_RBI	0.580	-
predicted_SLG	0.157	-
predicted_SO	0.727	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.915	-0.267
predicted_AVG	0.157	0.000
predicted_BB	0.435	0.072
predicted_H	0.427	0.017
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.268	0.000
predicted_R	0.298	-0.111
predicted_RBI	0.602	0.022
predicted_SLG	0.157	0.000
predicted_SO	0.579	-0.148

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.18), rates preserved: AVG=0.134 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	0.1429	0.2353	0.1429	0.1429	0.2857	0.1429	0.1429
last_10	0.35	10	-	25.000	4.000	5.000	2.000	6.000	5.000	0.1600	0.3125	0.1600	0.1600	0.2000	0.2400	0.2000
season	0.20	22	-	70.000	13.000	8.000	9.000	8.000	16.000	0.1857	0.2658	0.1857	0.1857	0.1143	0.1143	0.2286

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.7710
predicted_AVG	0.1574
predicted_BB	0.4740
predicted_H	0.4360
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.2684
predicted_R	0.2380
predicted_RBI	0.6140
predicted_SLG	0.1574
predicted_SO	0.4990

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1820	2.7710	2.9148	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1570	0.1574	0.1573	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3640	0.4740	0.4355	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4100	0.4360	0.4269	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2680	0.2684	0.2683	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4090	0.2380	0.2978	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5800	0.6140	0.6021	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1570	0.1574	0.1573	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7270	0.4990	0.5788	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.186

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260503_MIL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	687401
playerID	687401
playerName	Joey Ortiz
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	MIL
teamID	16

Jackson Chourio (694192) · BATTER · LF · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 1

All-history rows before 20260506: 1

System season_avg: 1.0000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 1.0000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	2.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	2.000	2.000	-2.000	-2.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	4.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_AVG	1.000	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	1.000	1.000	-0.667	-0.667
predicted_BB	1.000	2.000	2.000	Hitting_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	3.870	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	4.000	4.000	-3.000	-3.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	1.000	0.600	0.600	Hitting_OBP	1.000	1.000	-0.400	-0.400
predicted_R	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	1.500	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	1.500	1.500	-1.167	-1.167
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	2.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.000	-
predicted_AVG	1.000	-
predicted_BB	1.000	-
predicted_H	3.870	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	1.000	-
predicted_R	1.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.000	-
predicted_SLG	1.500	-
predicted_SO	0.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	2.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	1.000	0.000
predicted_BB	1.000	0.000
predicted_H	3.954	0.084
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	1.000	0.000
predicted_R	1.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	1.500	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.989 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	2.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	4.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, BvP AVG=0.600)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	2.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	2.000	1.000
H	3.000	-1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	2.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	2.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	3.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-2.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	2.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	-2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total R	Total BB	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	BB_per_AB
last_5	0.45	1	-	4.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	1.0000	1.0000	1.5000	1.0000	0.2500
last_10	0.35	1	-	4.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	1.0000	1.0000	1.5000	1.0000	0.2500
season	0.20	1	-	4.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	1.0000	1.0000	1.5000	1.0000	0.2500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	2.0000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.0000
predicted_AVG	1.0000
predicted_BB	1.0000
predicted_H	4.0000
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	1.0000
predicted_R	1.0000
predicted_RBI	0.0000
predicted_SLG	1.5000
predicted_SO	0.0000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	2.0000	2.0000	2.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0000	4.0000	4.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_H	3.8700	4.0000	3.9545	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_R	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	1.5000	1.5000	1.5000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	1.0

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	2
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	1.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	4
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	6
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260504_MIL@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	694192
playerID	694192
playerName	Jackson Chourio
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	MIL
teamID	16

William Contreras (661388) · BATTER · C · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 31

All-history rows before 20260506: 31

System season_avg: 0.2970

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2969

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.226	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.226	0.000	-0.226	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.129	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.129	5.000	-0.129	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.370	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.297	0.200	-0.047	0.050
predicted_BB	0.452	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.452	0.000	0.548	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.470	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.226	1.000	-0.226	0.000
predicted_HR	0.130	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.097	0.000	0.903	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.420	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.366	0.200	0.034	0.200
predicted_R	0.645	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.645	0.000	0.355	1.000
predicted_RBI	1.010	3.000	3.000	Hitting_RBI	0.742	0.000	2.258	3.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.509	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SLG	0.422	0.200	0.578	0.800
predicted_SO	0.484	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.484	0.000	0.516	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.226	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.129	-
predicted_AVG	0.370	-
predicted_BB	0.452	-
predicted_H	1.470	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.420	-
predicted_R	0.645	-
predicted_RBI	1.010	-
predicted_SLG	0.509	-
predicted_SO	0.484	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.190	-0.036
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.247	0.118
predicted_AVG	0.370	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.403	-0.049
predicted_H	1.551	0.081
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.138	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.420	0.000
predicted_R	0.782	0.137
predicted_RBI	1.061	0.051
predicted_SLG	0.509	0.000
predicted_SO	0.360	-0.123

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.25), rates preserved: AVG=0.365 HR/AB=0.033

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=12.0, BvP AVG=0.250)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	3.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 4.129

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	22.000	10.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	5.000	2.000	1.000	0.4545	0.5000	0.6364	0.4546	0.0454	0.3182	0.0909	0.0454
last_10	0.35	10	-	43.000	13.000	1.000	1.000	9.000	8.000	3.000	3.000	0.3023	0.3478	0.3953	0.3023	0.0233	0.2093	0.0698	0.0698
season	0.20	31	-	128.000	38.000	7.000	3.000	23.000	20.000	14.000	15.000	0.2969	0.3662	0.4219	0.2969	0.0234	0.1797	0.1094	0.1172

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1700
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.3110
predicted_AVG	0.3697
predicted_BB	0.3760
predicted_H	1.5940
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1430
predicted_OBP	0.4200
predicted_R	0.8560
predicted_RBI	1.0880
predicted_SLG	0.5091
predicted_SO	0.2940

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2260	0.1700	0.1896	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1290	4.3110	4.2473	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3700	0.3697	0.3698	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4520	0.3760	0.4026	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.4700	1.5940	1.5506	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1430	0.1384	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4200	0.4200	0.4200	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6450	0.8560	0.7822	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	1.0100	1.0880	1.0607	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5090	0.5091	0.5091	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4840	0.2940	0.3605	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	3
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.297

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260504_MIL@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	661388
playerID	661388
playerName	William Contreras
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	MIL
teamID	16

David Hamilton (666152) · BATTER · 3B · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 27

All-history rows before 20260506: 27

System season_avg: 0.2410

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2410

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.074	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.074	0.000	0.926	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.074	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.074	4.000	-0.074	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.252	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.241	0.000	0.092	0.333
predicted_BB	0.444	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.444	0.000	0.556	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.074	0.000	-0.074	0.000
predicted_H	0.640	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.741	0.000	0.259	1.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.304	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.344	0.000	0.156	0.500
predicted_R	0.556	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.556	0.000	-0.556	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.259	0.000	-0.259	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.259	0.000	-0.259	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.301	0.667	0.667	Hitting_SLG	0.265	0.000	0.402	0.667
predicted_SO	0.704	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.704	2.000	-0.704	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.074	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.074	-
predicted_AVG	0.252	-
predicted_BB	0.444	-
predicted_H	0.640	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.304	-
predicted_R	0.556	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.301	-
predicted_SO	0.704	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.138	0.064
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.338	0.264
predicted_AVG	0.252	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.323	-0.121
predicted_H	0.793	0.153
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.304	-0.000
predicted_R	0.533	-0.023
predicted_RBI	0.336	0.066
predicted_SLG	0.301	0.000
predicted_SO	0.834	0.130

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.34), rates preserved: AVG=0.237 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	5.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	0.2632	0.3000	0.3158	0.2632	0.1053	0.0526	0.2632
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	8.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	2.000	9.000	0.2424	0.2857	0.3030	0.2424	0.1212	0.0606	0.2727
season	0.20	27	-	83.000	20.000	2.000	7.000	15.000	12.000	19.000	0.2410	0.3438	0.2651	0.2410	0.0843	0.1446	0.2289

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1730
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.4800
predicted_AVG	0.2515
predicted_BB	0.2570
predicted_H	0.8750
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.3038
predicted_R	0.5210
predicted_RBI	0.3710
predicted_SLG	0.3012
predicted_SO	0.9040

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0740	0.1730	0.1384	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0740	3.4800	3.3379	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2520	0.2515	0.2517	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4440	0.2570	0.3225	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6400	0.8750	0.7927	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3040	0.3038	0.3039	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5560	0.5210	0.5333	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.3710	0.3357	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3010	0.3012	0.3011	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7040	0.9040	0.8340	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.241

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260504_MIL@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	666152
playerID	666152
playerName	David Hamilton
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	MIL
teamID	16

Brandon Sproat (687075) · PITCHER · Starter · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 6

All-history rows before 20260506: 6

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	3.333	4.000	-1.333	-2.000
predicted_IP	5.000	5.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.133	4.100	0.867	0.900
predicted_SO	6.000	6.000	-	Pitching_SO	4.167	5.000	1.833	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 5.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	23.667	13.000	22.000	11.000	22.000	4.000	4.9437	1.3944	0.5493	0.9296	0.4648	0.9296	0.1690
last_10	0.35	6	26.667	20.000	28.000	15.000	25.000	7.000	6.7500	1.6125	0.7500	1.0500	0.5625	0.9375	0.2625
season	0.20	6	26.667	20.000	28.000	15.000	25.000	7.000	6.7500	1.6125	0.7500	1.0500	0.5625	0.9375	0.2625

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.3720
predicted_ER	3.0180
predicted_ERA	5.9372
predicted_H	4.5550
predicted_HR	1.0080
predicted_IP	4.5740
predicted_SO	4.2720
predicted_WHIP	1.5144

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	2.3720	2.2418	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	3.0180	2.6617	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.9372	5.9372	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	4.5550	4.0107	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	1.0080	0.6552	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.0000	4.5740	4.7231	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	6.0000	4.2720	4.8768	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5144	1.5144	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.0
H	3
R	2
ER	2
BB	2
SO	6
HR	0
BF	20
Pitches	88

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	20
Pitching_ER	4
Pitching_ERA	6.75
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	6
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	4.1
Pitching_Pitches	82
Pitching_R	4
Pitching_SO	5
Pitching_Strikes	52
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260429_ARI@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	687075
playerID	687075
playerName	Brandon Sproat
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	MIL
teamID	16

Aaron Ashby (676879) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 16

All-history rows before 20260506: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.375	1.000	-0.375	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.138	2.200	-0.138	-1.200
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_SO	2.125	4.000	0.875	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	7.000	1.000	4.000	7.000	12.000	0.000	1.2857	1.5714	0.1429	0.5714	1.0000	1.7143	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	12.333	3.000	10.000	8.000	22.000	0.000	2.1892	1.4595	0.2432	0.8108	0.6486	1.7838	0.0000
season	0.20	16	21.000	6.000	17.000	13.000	34.000	1.000	2.5714	1.4286	0.2857	0.8095	0.6190	1.6191	0.0476

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.0600
predicted_ER	0.2740
predicted_ERA	1.8591
predicted_H	0.9310
predicted_HR	0.0130
predicted_IP	1.3240
predicted_SO	2.2770
predicted_WHIP	1.5037

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	1.0600	0.6890	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2740	0.1781	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.8591	1.8591	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.9310	0.9552	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0130	0.0084	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.3240	1.2106	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	2.2770	2.5301	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5037	1.5037	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	3
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	12
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	2.57
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	4
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.2
Pitching_Pitches	45
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	4
Pitching_Strikes	26
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260501_MIL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	676879
playerID	676879
playerName	Aaron Ashby
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIL
teamID	16

Abner Uribe (682842) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 14

All-history rows before 20260506: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.357	0.000	0.643	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.764	1.000	0.236	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	1.000	2.000	0.000	5.000	1.000	2.2500	0.5000	0.2500	0.5000	0.0000	1.2500	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	8.667	4.000	7.000	2.000	10.000	1.000	4.1538	1.0385	0.4615	0.8077	0.2308	1.1539	0.1154
season	0.20	14	12.333	5.000	10.000	3.000	14.000	1.000	3.6486	1.0541	0.4054	0.8108	0.2432	1.1351	0.0811

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1090
predicted_ER	0.2980
predicted_ERA	3.1961
predicted_H	0.5620
predicted_HR	0.1420
predicted_IP	0.8400
predicted_SO	1.0020
predicted_WHIP	0.7993

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1090	0.0708	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.2980	0.5437	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.1961	3.1961	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.5620	1.0653	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1420	0.0923	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.8400	0.8960	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.0020	1.3513	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.7993	0.7993	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.65
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	24
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	17
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260502_MIL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	682842
playerID	682842
playerName	Abner Uribe
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIL
teamID	16

Trevor Megill (656730) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 13

All-history rows before 20260506: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.615	0.000	1.385	2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.923	1.000	0.077	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	0.0000	0.4000	0.0000	0.2000	0.2000	0.8000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	3.000	6.000	4.000	10.000	2.7000	1.0000	0.3000	0.6000	0.4000	1.0000
season	0.20	12	12.000	4.000	8.000	5.000	13.000	3.0000	1.0833	0.3333	0.6667	0.4167	1.0833

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3130
predicted_ER	0.1720
predicted_ERA	1.5450
predicted_H	0.4330
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9270
predicted_WHIP	0.7467

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3130	0.5534	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.1720	0.8118	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.5450	1.5450	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	0.4330	1.3314	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.9270	1.3026	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.7467	0.7467	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	3
R	2
ER	2
BB	1
SO	2
HR	0
BF	7
Pitches	30

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	6.00
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260502_MIL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	656730
playerID	656730
playerName	Trevor Megill
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIL
teamID	16

Home Team: STL

Iván Herrera (671056) · BATTER · DH · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 35

All-history rows before 20260506: 35

System season_avg: 0.2560

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2560

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.257	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.257	1.000	-0.257	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.571	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.571	5.000	-0.571	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.296	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.256	0.400	0.077	-0.067
predicted_BB	0.771	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.771	0.000	0.229	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.020	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.914	2.000	0.086	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.114	0.000	-0.114	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.427	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.416	0.400	0.084	0.100
predicted_R	0.600	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.600	0.000	-0.600	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.486	3.000	-0.486	-3.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.455	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.424	0.600	-0.091	-0.267
predicted_SO	0.771	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.771	2.000	1.229	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.257	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.571	-
predicted_AVG	0.296	-
predicted_BB	0.771	-
predicted_H	1.020	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.427	-
predicted_R	0.600	-
predicted_RBI	0.500	-
predicted_SLG	0.455	-
predicted_SO	0.771	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.356	0.099
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.680	0.109
predicted_AVG	0.296	0.000
predicted_BB	0.757	-0.014
predicted_H	1.077	0.057
predicted_HBP	0.123	-
predicted_HR	0.061	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.427	-0.000
predicted_R	0.833	0.233
predicted_RBI	0.527	0.027
predicted_SLG	0.455	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.025	0.254

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.68), rates preserved: AVG=0.293 HR/AB=0.016

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	5.000	3.000	7.000	0.3000	0.3913	0.4000	0.3000	0.0000	0.1500	0.1500	0.3500
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	11.000	5.000	1.000	5.000	11.000	9.000	11.000	0.3143	0.4783	0.5429	0.3143	0.0286	0.1429	0.2571	0.3143
season	0.20	35	-	125.000	32.000	9.000	4.000	17.000	21.000	27.000	27.000	0.2560	0.4161	0.4240	0.2560	0.0320	0.1360	0.2160	0.2160

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.4090
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7390
predicted_AVG	0.2962
predicted_BB	0.7500
predicted_H	1.1080
predicted_HBP	0.1230
predicted_HR	0.0610
predicted_OBP	0.4267
predicted_R	0.9580
predicted_RBI	0.5410
predicted_SLG	0.4548
predicted_SO	1.1620

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2570	0.4090	0.3558	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5710	3.7390	3.6802	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2960	0.2962	0.2961	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7710	0.7500	0.7573	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0200	1.1080	1.0772	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1230	0.1230	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0610	0.0606	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4270	0.4267	0.4268	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6000	0.9580	0.8327	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5000	0.5410	0.5267	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4550	0.4548	0.4549	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7710	1.1620	1.0252	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.256

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260504_MIL@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	671056
playerID	671056
playerName	Iván Herrera
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	STL
teamID	26

Victor Scott II (687363) · BATTER · CF · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 30

All-history rows before 20260506: 30

System season_avg: 0.1840

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1839

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.067	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.067	1.000	-0.067	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.900	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	2.900	3.000	1.100	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.145	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.184	0.667	-0.184	-0.667
predicted_BB	0.233	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.233	0.000	-0.233	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_H	0.340	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.533	2.000	-0.533	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.033	0.000	-0.033	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.260	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.250	0.667	-0.250	-0.667
predicted_R	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.232	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.241	1.000	-0.241	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.900	3.000	3.000	Hitting_SO	0.900	0.000	2.100	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.067	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.900	-
predicted_AVG	0.145	-
predicted_BB	0.233	-
predicted_H	0.340	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.260	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.050	-
predicted_SLG	0.232	-
predicted_SO	0.900	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.115	0.048
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.939	0.039
predicted_AVG	0.145	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.299	0.066
predicted_H	0.398	0.058
predicted_HBP	0.134	-
predicted_HR	0.036	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.260	0.000
predicted_R	0.430	0.097
predicted_RBI	0.060	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.232	0.000
predicted_SO	0.975	0.075

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.94), rates preserved: AVG=0.135 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	5.000	0.1429	0.2941	0.2143	0.1429	0.0000	0.0000	0.1429	0.3571
last_10	0.35	10	-	32.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	11.000	0.1250	0.2222	0.2500	0.1250	0.0312	0.0312	0.0938	0.3438
season	0.20	30	-	87.000	16.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	10.000	7.000	27.000	0.1839	0.2500	0.2414	0.1839	0.0115	0.0575	0.0805	0.3103

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1410
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.9600
predicted_AVG	0.1448
predicted_BB	0.3350
predicted_H	0.4290
predicted_HBP	0.1340
predicted_HR	0.0390
predicted_OBP	0.2601
predicted_R	0.4830
predicted_RBI	0.0660
predicted_SLG	0.2322
predicted_SO	1.0160

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0670	0.1410	0.1151	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.9000	2.9600	2.9390	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1450	0.1448	0.1449	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2330	0.3350	0.2993	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3400	0.4290	0.3978	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1340	0.1340	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0390	0.0358	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2600	0.2601	0.2601	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.4830	0.4305	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0500	0.0660	0.0604	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2320	0.2322	0.2321	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9000	1.0160	0.9754	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.184

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	1
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260504_MIL@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	687363
playerID	687363
playerName	Victor Scott II
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	STL
teamID	26

Alec Burleson (676475) · BATTER · 1B · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 33

All-history rows before 20260506: 33

System season_avg: 0.2710

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2707

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.273	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.273	0.000	0.727	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.030	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.030	5.000	-0.030	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.283	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.271	0.000	-0.021	0.250
predicted_BB	0.485	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.485	0.000	-0.485	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.110	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.091	0.000	-0.091	1.000
predicted_HR	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.152	0.000	-0.152	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.350	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.347	0.000	-0.097	0.250
predicted_R	0.545	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.545	0.000	-0.545	0.000
predicted_RBI	1.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.848	0.000	-0.848	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.486	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.451	0.000	0.049	0.500
predicted_SO	0.697	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.697	3.000	0.303	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.273	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.030	-
predicted_AVG	0.283	-
predicted_BB	0.485	-
predicted_H	1.110	-
predicted_HR	0.180	-
predicted_OBP	0.350	-
predicted_R	0.545	-
predicted_RBI	1.060	-
predicted_SLG	0.486	-
predicted_SO	0.697	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.257	-0.016
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.037	0.007
predicted_AVG	0.283	0.000
predicted_BB	0.441	-0.044
predicted_H	1.132	0.022
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.186	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.350	-0.000
predicted_R	0.678	0.133
predicted_RBI	1.083	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.486	0.000
predicted_SO	0.891	0.194

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.04), rates preserved: AVG=0.280 HR/AB=0.046

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 4.030

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	4.000	2.000	6.000	0.3000	0.3636	0.5000	0.3000	0.0500	0.3000	0.1000	0.3000
last_10	0.35	10	-	41.000	11.000	3.000	2.000	11.000	8.000	4.000	9.000	0.2683	0.3333	0.4878	0.2683	0.0488	0.2683	0.0976	0.2195
season	0.20	33	-	133.000	36.000	9.000	5.000	28.000	18.000	16.000	23.000	0.2707	0.3467	0.4511	0.2707	0.0376	0.2105	0.1203	0.1729

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2490
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.0410
predicted_AVG	0.2830
predicted_BB	0.4170
predicted_H	1.1440
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1900
predicted_OBP	0.3496
predicted_R	0.7490
predicted_RBI	1.0950
predicted_SLG	0.4860
predicted_SO	0.9960

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2730	0.2490	0.2574	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0300	4.0410	4.0372	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2830	0.2830	0.2830	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4850	0.4170	0.4408	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1100	1.1440	1.1321	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1800	0.1900	0.1865	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3500	0.3496	0.3497	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5450	0.7490	0.6776	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	1.0600	1.0950	1.0827	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4860	0.4860	0.4860	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6970	0.9960	0.8913	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.271

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260504_MIL@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	676475
playerID	676475
playerName	Alec Burleson
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	STL
teamID	26

Pedro Pagés (686780) · BATTER · C · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 22

All-history rows before 20260506: 22

System season_avg: 0.2370

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2368

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.136	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.136	0.000	0.864	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.455	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.455	3.000	0.545	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.225	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.237	0.000	0.263	0.500
predicted_BB	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.182	1.000	-0.182	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.650	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.818	0.000	1.182	2.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.136	0.000	-0.136	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.271	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.289	0.250	0.211	0.250
predicted_R	0.364	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.364	1.000	0.636	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.140	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	0.364	0.000	1.636	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.343	0.750	0.750	Hitting_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.355	0.750
predicted_SO	0.955	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.955	2.000	0.045	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.136	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.455	-
predicted_AVG	0.225	-
predicted_BB	0.182	-
predicted_H	0.650	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.271	-
predicted_R	0.364	-
predicted_RBI	0.140	-
predicted_SLG	0.343	-
predicted_SO	0.955	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.146	0.010
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.751	0.296
predicted_AVG	0.225	0.000
predicted_BB	0.215	0.033
predicted_H	0.800	0.150
predicted_HBP	0.021	-
predicted_HR	0.095	0.015
predicted_OBP	0.271	0.000
predicted_R	0.329	-0.035
predicted_RBI	0.172	0.032
predicted_SLG	0.343	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.270	0.315

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.75), rates preserved: AVG=0.213 HR/AB=0.025

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	9.000	0.1905	0.2273	0.2381	0.1905	0.0000	0.0000	0.0476	0.4286
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	10.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	3.000	13.000	0.2632	0.3171	0.4474	0.2632	0.0526	0.0790	0.0790	0.3421
season	0.20	22	-	76.000	18.000	3.000	3.000	8.000	8.000	4.000	21.000	0.2368	0.2892	0.3947	0.2368	0.0395	0.1053	0.0526	0.2763

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1510
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.9110
predicted_AVG	0.2252
predicted_BB	0.2330
predicted_H	0.8810
predicted_HBP	0.0210
predicted_HR	0.1030
predicted_OBP	0.2711
predicted_R	0.3100
predicted_RBI	0.1900
predicted_SLG	0.3427
predicted_SO	1.4390

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1360	0.1510	0.1457	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4550	3.9110	3.7514	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2250	0.2252	0.2251	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1820	0.2330	0.2152	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6500	0.8810	0.8001	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0210	0.0210	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.1030	0.0949	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2710	0.2711	0.2711	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3640	0.3100	0.3289	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1400	0.1900	0.1725	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3430	0.3427	0.3428	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9550	1.4390	1.2696	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.237

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260504_MIL@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	686780
playerID	686780
playerName	Pedro Pagés
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	STL
teamID	26

JJ Wetherholt (802139) · BATTER · 2B · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 34

All-history rows before 20260506: 34

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.147	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.147	0.000	-0.147	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.910	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.882	4.000	0.118	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.263	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.500	-0.250	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.529	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.529	1.000	-0.529	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.971	2.000	-0.971	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.206	0.000	-0.206	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.337	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.365	0.600	-0.365	-0.600
predicted_R	0.824	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.824	1.000	-0.824	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.580	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.529	2.000	-0.529	-2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.489	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.447	0.500	-0.447	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.794	3.000	3.000	Hitting_SO	0.794	0.000	2.206	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.147	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.910	-
predicted_AVG	0.263	-
predicted_BB	0.529	-
predicted_H	1.030	-
predicted_HR	0.250	-
predicted_OBP	0.337	-
predicted_R	0.824	-
predicted_RBI	0.580	-
predicted_SLG	0.489	-
predicted_SO	0.794	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.138	-0.009
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.080	0.170
predicted_AVG	0.263	0.000
predicted_BB	0.441	-0.088
predicted_H	1.074	0.044
predicted_HBP	0.078	-
predicted_HR	0.262	0.012
predicted_OBP	0.337	-0.000
predicted_R	0.777	-0.047
predicted_RBI	0.606	0.026
predicted_SLG	0.489	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.674	-0.120

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.08), rates preserved: AVG=0.263 HR/AB=0.064

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.910

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	0.2381	0.3043	0.3810	0.2381	0.0476	0.1429	0.0952	0.1429
last_10	0.35	10	-	43.000	13.000	3.000	4.000	7.000	9.000	3.000	5.000	0.3023	0.3617	0.6512	0.3023	0.0930	0.1628	0.0698	0.1163
season	0.20	34	-	132.000	33.000	5.000	7.000	18.000	28.000	18.000	27.000	0.2500	0.3648	0.4470	0.2500	0.0530	0.1364	0.1364	0.2046

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1330
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.1710
predicted_AVG	0.2630
predicted_BB	0.3940
predicted_H	1.0970
predicted_HBP	0.0780
predicted_HR	0.2690
predicted_OBP	0.3365
predicted_R	0.7510
predicted_RBI	0.6200
predicted_SLG	0.4888
predicted_SO	0.6090

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1470	0.1330	0.1379	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9100	4.1710	4.0797	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2630	0.2630	0.2630	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5290	0.3940	0.4413	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0300	1.0970	1.0736	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0780	0.0780	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2500	0.2690	0.2623	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3370	0.3365	0.3367	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8240	0.7510	0.7766	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5800	0.6200	0.6060	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4890	0.4888	0.4889	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7940	0.6090	0.6737	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	1
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260504_MIL@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	802139
playerID	802139
playerName	JJ Wetherholt
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	STL
teamID	26

Nolan Gorman (669357) · BATTER · 3B · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 30

All-history rows before 20260506: 30

System season_avg: 0.2250

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2252

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.100	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.100	1.000	0.900	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.700	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.700	4.000	-0.700	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.250	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.225	0.500	0.108	-0.167
predicted_BB	0.367	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.367	0.000	0.633	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.860	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.833	2.000	0.167	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.289	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.288	0.500	0.212	0.000
predicted_R	0.400	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.400	0.000	0.600	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.550	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.667	0.000	0.333	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.440	0.667	0.667	Hitting_SLG	0.360	0.750	0.306	-0.083
predicted_SO	1.133	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.133	0.000	0.867	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.100	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.700	-
predicted_AVG	0.250	-
predicted_BB	0.367	-
predicted_H	0.860	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.289	-
predicted_R	0.400	-
predicted_RBI	0.550	-
predicted_SLG	0.440	-
predicted_SO	1.133	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.151	0.051
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.811	0.111
predicted_AVG	0.250	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.281	-0.086
predicted_H	0.929	0.069
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.180	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.289	-0.000
predicted_R	0.423	0.023
predicted_RBI	0.592	0.042
predicted_SLG	0.440	0.000
predicted_SO	1.042	-0.091

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.81), rates preserved: AVG=0.244 HR/AB=0.047

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	0.2500	0.2857	0.4500	0.2500	0.0500	0.1500	0.0500	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	10.000	2.000	2.000	6.000	5.000	2.000	9.000	0.2632	0.2927	0.4737	0.2632	0.0526	0.1579	0.0526	0.2368
season	0.20	30	-	111.000	25.000	3.000	4.000	20.000	12.000	11.000	34.000	0.2252	0.2880	0.3604	0.2252	0.0360	0.1802	0.0991	0.3063

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1790
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.8700
predicted_AVG	0.2497
predicted_BB	0.2350
predicted_H	0.9660
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1860
predicted_OBP	0.2886
predicted_R	0.4360
predicted_RBI	0.6150
predicted_SLG	0.4404
predicted_SO	0.9930

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1000	0.1790	0.1513	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7000	3.8700	3.8105	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2500	0.2497	0.2498	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3670	0.2350	0.2812	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8600	0.9660	0.9289	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.1860	0.1804	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2890	0.2886	0.2887	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4000	0.4360	0.4234	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5500	0.6150	0.5922	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4400	0.4404	0.4403	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1330	0.9930	1.0420	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.225

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260504_MIL@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	669357
playerID	669357
playerName	Nolan Gorman
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	STL
teamID	26

Nathan Church (701675) · BATTER · LF · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 26

All-history rows before 20260506: 26

System season_avg: 0.2470

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2474

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.154	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.154	1.000	-0.154	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.731	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.731	4.000	0.269	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.247	0.250	-0.247	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.154	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.038	0.000	-0.038	0.000
predicted_H	0.840	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.923	1.000	-0.923	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.275	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.275	0.250	-0.275	-0.250
predicted_R	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.500	1.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.490	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.115	0.000	-0.115	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.467	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.412	0.500	-0.412	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.846	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.846	0.000	0.154	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.154	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.731	-
predicted_AVG	0.270	-
predicted_BB	0.154	-
predicted_H	0.840	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.275	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.490	-
predicted_SLG	0.467	-
predicted_SO	0.846	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.314	0.160
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.975	0.244
predicted_AVG	0.270	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.076	-0.078
predicted_H	1.014	0.174
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.124	0.024
predicted_OBP	0.275	0.000
predicted_R	0.472	-0.028
predicted_RBI	0.593	0.103
predicted_SLG	0.467	0.000
predicted_SO	0.745	-0.101

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.97), rates preserved: AVG=0.255 HR/AB=0.031

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 26

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	6.000	3.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	0.2857	0.2857	0.4286	0.2857	0.0000	0.1429	0.0000	0.1429
last_10	0.35	10	-	42.000	11.000	3.000	3.000	8.000	5.000	0.000	7.000	0.2619	0.2619	0.5476	0.2619	0.0714	0.1905	0.0000	0.1667
season	0.20	26	-	97.000	24.000	4.000	4.000	13.000	13.000	4.000	22.000	0.2474	0.2745	0.4124	0.2474	0.0412	0.1340	0.0412	0.2268

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.4000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.1060
predicted_AVG	0.2697
predicted_BB	0.0340
predicted_H	1.1080
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1370
predicted_OBP	0.2751
predicted_R	0.4570
predicted_RBI	0.6480
predicted_SLG	0.4670
predicted_SO	0.6900

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1540	0.4000	0.3139	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7310	4.1060	3.9747	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2700	0.2697	0.2698	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1540	0.0340	0.0760	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8400	1.1080	1.0142	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1370	0.1240	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2750	0.2751	0.2751	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.4570	0.4721	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4900	0.6480	0.5927	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4670	0.4670	0.4670	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8460	0.6900	0.7446	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	26
Season rows before report date	26
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	26
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.247

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260504_MIL@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	701675
playerID	701675
playerName	Nathan Church
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	STL
teamID	26

Jordan Walker (691023) · BATTER · RF · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 33

All-history rows before 20260506: 33

System season_avg: 0.3120

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3125

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.879	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.879	3.000	-0.879	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.408	0.667	0.667	Hitting_AVG	0.312	0.333	0.354	0.333
predicted_BB	0.424	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.424	1.000	0.576	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_H	1.520	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	1.212	1.000	0.788	1.000
predicted_HR	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.303	0.000	-0.303	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.471	0.750	0.750	Hitting_OBP	0.382	0.500	0.368	0.250
predicted_R	0.848	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.848	1.000	0.152	0.000
predicted_RBI	1.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.818	0.000	-0.818	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.730	0.667	0.667	Hitting_SLG	0.594	0.333	0.073	0.333
predicted_SO	1.242	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.242	2.000	-1.242	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.879	-
predicted_AVG	0.408	-
predicted_BB	0.424	-
predicted_H	1.520	-
predicted_HR	0.300	-
predicted_OBP	0.471	-
predicted_R	0.848	-
predicted_RBI	1.160	-
predicted_SLG	0.730	-
predicted_SO	1.242	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	0.068
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.815	-0.064
predicted_AVG	0.408	0.000
predicted_BB	0.435	0.011
predicted_H	1.535	0.015
predicted_HBP	0.042	-
predicted_HR	0.306	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.471	0.000
predicted_R	0.940	0.092
predicted_RBI	1.173	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.730	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.999	-0.243

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.88), rates preserved: AVG=0.396 HR/AB=0.079

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	2.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	2.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.879

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	9.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	6.000	2.000	3.000	0.4737	0.5238	0.8947	0.4737	0.1053	0.3684	0.1053	0.1579
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	14.000	2.000	2.000	11.000	8.000	5.000	10.000	0.3784	0.4545	0.5946	0.3784	0.0541	0.2973	0.1351	0.2703
season	0.20	33	-	128.000	40.000	6.000	10.000	27.000	28.000	14.000	41.000	0.3125	0.3819	0.5938	0.3125	0.0781	0.2109	0.1094	0.3203

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2860
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7810
predicted_AVG	0.4081
predicted_BB	0.4410
predicted_H	1.5430
predicted_HBP	0.0420
predicted_HR	0.3100
predicted_OBP	0.4712
predicted_R	0.9890
predicted_RBI	1.1800
predicted_SLG	0.7295
predicted_SO	0.8680

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1820	0.2860	0.2496	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8790	3.7810	3.8153	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.4080	0.4081	0.4081	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4240	0.4410	0.4350	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.5200	1.5430	1.5349	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0420	0.0420	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3000	0.3100	0.3065	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4710	0.4712	0.4711	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8480	0.9890	0.9396	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	1.1600	1.1800	1.1730	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.7300	0.7295	0.7297	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2420	0.8680	0.9989	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.312

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260504_MIL@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	691023
playerID	691023
playerName	Jordan Walker
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	STL
teamID	26

Masyn Winn (691026) · BATTER · SS · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 30

All-history rows before 20260506: 30

System season_avg: 0.2740

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2743

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.207	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	0.800	1.000
predicted_3B	0.034	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.033	0.000	-0.033	0.000
predicted_AB	3.897	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.767	3.000	0.233	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.319	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.274	0.333	0.226	0.167
predicted_BB	0.379	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.400	1.000	-0.400	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.050	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	1.033	1.000	0.967	1.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.033	0.000	-0.033	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.384	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.357	0.500	0.143	0.000
predicted_R	0.517	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.500	1.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.250	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.467	1.000	0.533	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.371	0.750	0.750	Hitting_SLG	0.372	0.333	0.378	0.417
predicted_SO	0.862	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.833	0.000	-0.833	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.207	-
predicted_3B	0.034	-
predicted_AB	3.897	-
predicted_AVG	0.319	-
predicted_BB	0.379	-
predicted_H	1.050	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.384	-
predicted_R	0.517	-
predicted_RBI	0.250	-
predicted_SLG	0.371	-
predicted_SO	0.862	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.181	-0.026
predicted_3B	0.016	-0.018
predicted_AB	3.869	-0.028
predicted_AVG	0.319	0.000
predicted_BB	0.308	-0.071
predicted_H	1.168	0.118
predicted_HBP	0.140	-
predicted_HR	0.008	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.384	0.000
predicted_R	0.456	-0.061
predicted_RBI	0.277	0.027
predicted_SLG	0.371	0.000
predicted_SO	0.689	-0.173

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.90), rates preserved: AVG=0.300 HR/AB=0.002

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.897

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	0.3684	0.4286	0.4211	0.3684	0.0000	0.0526	0.0526	0.1053
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	11.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	3.000	7.000	0.2821	0.3488	0.3077	0.2821	0.0000	0.0769	0.0769	0.1795
season	0.20	29	-	113.000	31.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	14.000	15.000	11.000	25.000	0.2743	0.3465	0.3717	0.2743	0.0089	0.1239	0.0974	0.2212

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1670
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.8540
predicted_AVG	0.3194
predicted_BB	0.2700
predicted_H	1.2310
predicted_HBP	0.1400
predicted_HR	0.0070
predicted_OBP	0.3842
predicted_R	0.4230
predicted_RBI	0.2910
predicted_SLG	0.3715
predicted_SO	0.5950

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2070	0.1670	0.1810	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0340	0.0070	0.0164	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8970	3.8540	3.8690	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3190	0.3194	0.3193	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3790	0.2700	0.3082	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0500	1.2310	1.1677	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1400	0.1400	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0070	0.0080	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3840	0.3842	0.3841	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5170	0.4230	0.4559	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2500	0.2910	0.2766	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3710	0.3715	0.3713	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8620	0.5950	0.6885	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.274

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260504_MIL@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	691026
playerID	691026
playerName	Masyn Winn
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	STL
teamID	26

Andre Pallante (669467) · PITCHER · Starter · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 6

All-history rows before 20260506: 6

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	2.167	1.000	-0.167	1.000
predicted_IP	4.000	4.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.183	6.000	-1.183	-2.000
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	-	Pitching_SO	4.333	6.000	-0.333	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	26.333	13.000	24.000	11.000	23.000	4.000	4.4430	1.3291	0.4937	0.9114	0.4177	0.8734	0.1519
last_10	0.35	6	31.333	13.000	27.000	14.000	26.000	4.000	3.7340	1.3085	0.4149	0.8617	0.4468	0.8298	0.1277
season	0.20	6	31.333	13.000	27.000	14.000	26.000	4.000	3.7340	1.3085	0.4149	0.8617	0.4468	0.8298	0.1277

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.2740
predicted_ER	2.3610
predicted_ERA	4.0530
predicted_H	4.6340
predicted_HR	0.7260
predicted_IP	5.2420
predicted_SO	4.4530
predicted_WHIP	1.3178

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	6.0000	2.2740	3.5781	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.3610	2.2347	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.0530	4.0530	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	4.6340	4.4121	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.7260	0.8219	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.0000	5.2420	4.8073	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	4.0000	4.4530	4.2945	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3178	1.3178	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.0
H	4
R	2
ER	2
BB	6
SO	4
HR	1
BF	22
Pitches	96

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	24
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	3.73
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	7
Pitching_H	5
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	91
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	6
Pitching_Strikes	58
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260429_STL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	669467
playerID	669467
playerName	Andre Pallante
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	STL
teamID	26

George Soriano (666277) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 16

All-history rows before 20260506: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.812	0.200	0.188	0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.812	1.000	0.188	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	5.000	0.000	1.8000	1.6000	0.2000	1.0000	0.6000	1.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.333	4.000	6.000	6.000	9.000	1.000	4.3200	1.4400	0.4800	0.7200	0.7200	1.0800	0.1200
season	0.20	16	15.333	6.000	9.000	9.000	13.000	1.000	3.5217	1.1739	0.3913	0.5870	0.5870	0.8478	0.0652

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5970
predicted_ER	0.3140
predicted_ERA	3.0263
predicted_H	0.7650
predicted_HR	0.0510
predicted_IP	0.9330
predicted_SO	0.9310
predicted_WHIP	1.4588

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5970	0.3881	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3140	0.2041	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.0263	3.0263	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7650	0.4973	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0510	0.0331	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.9330	0.9565	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9310	0.9552	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4588	1.4588	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.52
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_MIL@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	666277
playerID	666277
playerName	George Soriano
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	STL
teamID	26

Gordon Graceffo (700669) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 15

All-history rows before 20260506: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.267	2.000	-0.267	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.073	0.100	-0.073	0.900
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.667	0.000	0.333	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	3.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	5.4000	1.4000	0.6000	1.2000	0.2000	0.4000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	11.667	3.000	9.000	2.000	6.000	1.000	2.3143	0.9429	0.2571	0.7714	0.1714	0.5143	0.0857
season	0.20	15	18.667	4.000	11.000	7.000	10.000	1.000	1.9286	0.9643	0.2143	0.5893	0.3750	0.5357	0.0536

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2490
predicted_ER	0.4460
predicted_ERA	3.6257
predicted_H	1.0270
predicted_HR	0.1450
predicted_IP	1.1070
predicted_SO	0.5170
predicted_WHIP	1.1529

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2490	0.1618	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4460	0.2899	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.6257	3.6257	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.0270	0.6675	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1450	0.0943	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.1070	1.0696	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.5170	0.6861	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1529	1.1529	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	1.93
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_MIL@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	700669
playerID	700669
playerName	Gordon Graceffo
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	STL
teamID	26

JoJo Romero (668941) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 17

All-history rows before 20260506: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.412	0.000	-0.412
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.794	1.000	0.206
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.765	0.000	-0.765

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.333	2.000	4.000	3.000	7.000	2.000	4.1538	1.6154	0.4615	0.9231	0.6923	1.6154	0.4615
last_10	0.35	10	9.333	7.000	10.000	5.000	8.000	3.000	6.7500	1.6071	0.7500	1.0714	0.5357	0.8571	0.3214
season	0.20	17	17.000	7.000	15.000	7.000	13.000	3.000	3.7059	1.2941	0.4118	0.8823	0.4118	0.7647	0.1765

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5330
predicted_ER	0.5070
predicted_ERA	4.9729
predicted_H	0.8860
predicted_HR	0.3260
predicted_IP	0.9170
predicted_SO	1.0820
predicted_WHIP	1.5482

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5330	0.3465	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5070	0.3296	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.9729	4.9729	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.8860	0.9259	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.3260	0.2119	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.9170	0.9461	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.0820	0.7033	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5482	1.5482	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.71
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_MIL@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	668941
playerID	668941
playerName	JoJo Romero
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	STL
teamID	26

Riley O'Brien (676617) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 17

All-history rows before 20260506: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.235	0.000	-0.235	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.918	0.200	0.082	0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.118	0.000	-0.118	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.667	4.000	10.000	1.000	5.000	7.7143	2.3571	0.8571	2.1429	0.2143	1.0714
last_10	0.35	10	9.667	4.000	11.000	1.000	12.000	3.7241	1.2414	0.4138	1.1379	0.1035	1.2414
season	0.20	17	17.000	4.000	15.000	1.000	19.000	2.1176	0.9412	0.2353	0.8823	0.0588	1.1177

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1380
predicted_ER	0.5540
predicted_ERA	5.1984
predicted_H	1.4750
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	0.9580
predicted_SO	1.0930
predicted_WHIP	1.6834

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1380	0.0897	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5540	0.3601	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.1984	5.1984	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	1.4750	1.6587	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.9580	0.9727	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0930	1.0604	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.6834	1.6834	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	2
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.12
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	3
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	3
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_MIL@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	676617
playerID	676617
playerName	Riley O'Brien
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	STL
teamID	26

Ryne Stanek (592773) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 17

All-history rows before 20260506: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.706	0.000	0.294	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.718	1.000	0.282	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.176	1.000	-1.176	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.333	2.000	3.000	3.000	6.000	0.000	4.1538	1.3846	0.4615	0.6923	0.6923	1.3846	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.333	8.000	11.000	8.000	11.000	0.000	8.6400	2.2800	0.9600	1.3200	0.9600	1.3200	0.0000
season	0.20	17	15.000	12.000	18.000	13.000	20.000	1.000	7.2000	2.0667	0.8000	1.2000	0.8667	1.3333	0.0667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.7040
predicted_ER	0.6040
predicted_ERA	6.3332
predicted_H	0.8700
predicted_HR	0.0110
predicted_IP	0.8580
predicted_SO	1.1600
predicted_WHIP	1.8344

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.7040	0.8076	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.6040	0.7426	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	6.3332	6.3332	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.8700	0.9155	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0110	0.0072	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.8580	0.9077	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.1600	0.7540	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.8344	1.8344	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	7.20
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	7
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	6
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_MIL@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	592773
playerID	592773
playerName	Ryne Stanek
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	STL
teamID	26

20260506_MIN@WAS

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 3, "confidence": 0.6476328882219087, "home_win_probability": 0.3523671117780913, "away_win_probability": 0.6476328882219087, "predicted_score_text": "MIN 6 - 3 WAS", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to final winner probability with starter-quality caps.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3, "predicted_score_text": "MIN 5 - 3 WAS", "confidence": 0.6476328882219087, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score", "final_prediction_synced": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "MIN 5 - 3 WAS", "winner": "MIN"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "MIN 6 - 3 WAS", "winner": "MIN"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 1, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 1, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"}}

Away Team: MIN

Byron Buxton (621439) · BATTER · CF · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 33

All-history rows before 20260506: 33

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.152	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.152	0.000	-0.152	0.000
predicted_3B	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_AB	4.260	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	4.242	6.000	0.758	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.303	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.167	-0.250	-0.167
predicted_BB	0.303	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.303	0.000	-0.303	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.061	1.000	-1.061	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.640	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.357	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.307	0.167	-0.307	-0.167
predicted_R	0.788	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.788	1.000	0.212	0.000
predicted_RBI	1.080	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.515	3.000	0.485	-2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.061	0.000	-0.061	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.790	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.536	0.667	-0.536	-0.667
predicted_SO	1.152	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.152	1.000	-0.152	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.152	-
predicted_3B	0.030	-
predicted_AB	4.260	-
predicted_AVG	0.303	-
predicted_BB	0.303	-
predicted_H	1.290	-
predicted_HR	0.640	-
predicted_OBP	0.357	-
predicted_R	0.788	-
predicted_RBI	1.080	-
predicted_SLG	0.790	-
predicted_SO	1.152	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.155	0.003
predicted_3B	0.014	-0.016
predicted_AB	4.272	0.012
predicted_AVG	0.303	0.000
predicted_BB	0.332	0.029
predicted_H	1.295	0.005
predicted_HBP	0.012	-
predicted_HR	0.639	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.357	-0.000
predicted_R	0.832	0.044
predicted_RBI	1.084	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.790	0.000
predicted_SO	0.850	-0.302

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.27), rates preserved: AVG=0.303 HR/AB=0.150

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	-1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 4.260

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	7.000	5.000	2.000	2.000	0.3333	0.3913	0.9524	0.3333	0.1905	0.3333	0.0952	0.0952
last_10	0.35	10	-	44.000	13.000	1.000	0.000	6.000	10.000	7.000	3.000	8.000	0.2955	0.3404	0.7273	0.2954	0.1364	0.2273	0.0682	0.1818
season	0.20	33	-	140.000	35.000	5.000	1.000	11.000	17.000	26.000	10.000	38.000	0.2500	0.3072	0.5357	0.2500	0.0786	0.1214	0.0714	0.2714

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1560
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	4.2780
predicted_AVG	0.3034
predicted_BB	0.3470
predicted_H	1.2980
predicted_HBP	0.0120
predicted_HR	0.6380
predicted_OBP	0.3567
predicted_R	0.8560
predicted_RBI	1.0860
predicted_SLG	0.7903
predicted_SO	0.6880

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1520	0.1560	0.1546	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0300	0.0060	0.0144	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.2600	4.2780	4.2717	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3030	0.3034	0.3033	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3030	0.3470	0.3316	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2900	1.2980	1.2952	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0120	0.0120	form_only
predicted_HR	0.6400	0.6380	0.6387	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3570	0.3567	0.3568	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7880	0.8560	0.8322	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	1.0800	1.0860	1.0839	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.7900	0.7903	0.7902	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1520	0.6880	0.8504	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	6
Hitting_AVG	0.167
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260505_MIN@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	621439
playerID	621439
playerName	Byron Buxton
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	MIN
teamID	17

Josh Bell (605137) · BATTER · DH · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 33

All-history rows before 20260506: 33

System season_avg: 0.2200

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2195

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.152	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.152	0.000	-0.152	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.727	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.727	5.000	1.273	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.157	0.200	0.200	Hitting_AVG	0.220	0.200	-0.020	0.000
predicted_BB	0.424	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.424	0.000	-0.424	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.560	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.818	1.000	0.182	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.091	0.000	0.909	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.193	0.200	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.302	0.200	-0.102	0.000
predicted_R	0.636	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.636	0.000	0.364	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.340	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	0.545	1.000	1.455	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.179	0.800	0.800	Hitting_SLG	0.333	0.200	0.467	0.600
predicted_SO	0.788	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.788	1.000	1.212	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.152	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.727	-
predicted_AVG	0.157	-
predicted_BB	0.424	-
predicted_H	0.560	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.193	-
predicted_R	0.636	-
predicted_RBI	0.340	-
predicted_SLG	0.179	-
predicted_SO	0.788	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.075	-0.077
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.008	0.281
predicted_AVG	0.157	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.279	-0.145
predicted_H	0.619	0.059
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.193	0.000
predicted_R	0.463	-0.173
predicted_RBI	0.378	0.038
predicted_SLG	0.179	0.000
predicted_SO	0.852	0.064

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.01), rates preserved: AVG=0.154 HR/AB=0.005

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=34.0, BvP AVG=0.294)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	22.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	5.000	0.1364	0.1364	0.1364	0.1364	0.0000	0.0909	0.0000	0.2273
last_10	0.35	10	-	41.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	3.000	8.000	0.1463	0.2045	0.1463	0.1463	0.0000	0.0732	0.0732	0.1951
season	0.20	33	-	123.000	27.000	5.000	3.000	18.000	21.000	14.000	26.000	0.2195	0.3022	0.3333	0.2195	0.0244	0.1463	0.1138	0.2114

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0340
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.1600
predicted_AVG	0.1565
predicted_BB	0.2010
predicted_H	0.6510
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.0200
predicted_OBP	0.1934
predicted_R	0.3690
predicted_RBI	0.3990
predicted_SLG	0.1792
predicted_SO	0.8860

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1520	0.0340	0.0753	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7270	4.1600	4.0084	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1570	0.1565	0.1567	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4240	0.2010	0.2791	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5600	0.6510	0.6192	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0200	0.0200	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1930	0.1934	0.1933	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6360	0.3690	0.4625	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3400	0.3990	0.3784	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1790	0.1792	0.1791	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7880	0.8860	0.8517	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.22

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260505_MIN@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	605137
playerID	605137
playerName	Josh Bell
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	MIN
teamID	17

Matt Wallner (670242) · BATTER · RF · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 28

All-history rows before 20260506: 28

System season_avg: 0.1760

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1765

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.107	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.107	1.000	0.893	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.643	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.643	4.000	0.357	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.140	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.176	0.500	0.324	0.000
predicted_BB	0.357	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.357	0.000	-0.357	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.036	0.000	-0.036	0.000
predicted_H	0.420	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.643	2.000	1.357	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.107	0.000	-0.107	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.264	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.276	0.500	0.224	0.000
predicted_R	0.429	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.429	0.000	0.571	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.286	1.000	-0.286	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.200	0.750	0.750	Hitting_SLG	0.294	0.750	0.456	0.000
predicted_SO	1.464	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.464	0.000	-0.464	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.107	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.643	-
predicted_AVG	0.140	-
predicted_BB	0.357	-
predicted_H	0.420	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.264	-
predicted_R	0.429	-
predicted_RBI	0.190	-
predicted_SLG	0.200	-
predicted_SO	1.464	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.133	0.026
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.517	-0.126
predicted_AVG	0.140	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.380	0.023
predicted_H	0.460	0.040
predicted_HBP	0.189	-
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.264	-0.000
predicted_R	0.226	-0.203
predicted_RBI	0.207	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.200	0.000
predicted_SO	1.197	-0.267

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.64), rates preserved: AVG=0.126 HR/AB=0.005

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	0.1176	0.2500	0.1765	0.1177	0.0000	0.0588	0.1177	0.2941
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	9.000	0.1471	0.2750	0.1765	0.1471	0.0000	0.0588	0.1177	0.2647
season	0.20	28	-	102.000	18.000	3.000	3.000	8.000	12.000	10.000	41.000	0.1765	0.2759	0.2941	0.1765	0.0294	0.0784	0.0980	0.4020

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1470
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.4490
predicted_AVG	0.1397
predicted_BB	0.3920
predicted_H	0.4820
predicted_HBP	0.1890
predicted_HR	0.0200
predicted_OBP	0.2639
predicted_R	0.1170
predicted_RBI	0.2160
predicted_SLG	0.2000
predicted_SO	1.0530

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1070	0.1470	0.1330	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6430	3.4490	3.5169	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1400	0.1397	0.1398	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3570	0.3920	0.3798	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4200	0.4820	0.4603	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1890	0.1890	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0200	0.0200	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2640	0.2639	0.2639	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4290	0.1170	0.2262	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1900	0.2160	0.2069	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4640	1.0530	1.1968	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.176

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260503_TOR@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	670242
playerID	670242
playerName	Matt Wallner
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	MIN
teamID	17

Brooks Lee (686797) · BATTER · SS · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 31

All-history rows before 20260506: 31

System season_avg: 0.2630

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2632

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.129	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.129	2.000	-0.129	-2.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.677	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.677	5.000	1.323	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.327	0.200	0.200	Hitting_AVG	0.263	0.600	-0.063	-0.400
predicted_BB	0.258	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.258	0.000	-0.258	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.032	0.000	-0.032	0.000
predicted_H	1.150	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.968	3.000	0.032	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.161	0.000	-0.161	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.349	0.200	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.317	0.600	-0.117	-0.400
predicted_R	0.516	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.516	2.000	-0.516	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.720	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.613	3.000	-0.613	-3.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.065	0.000	-0.065	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.486	0.200	0.200	Hitting_SLG	0.430	1.000	-0.230	-0.800
predicted_SO	0.774	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.774	0.000	0.226	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.129	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.677	-
predicted_AVG	0.327	-
predicted_BB	0.258	-
predicted_H	1.150	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.349	-
predicted_R	0.516	-
predicted_RBI	0.720	-
predicted_SLG	0.486	-
predicted_SO	0.774	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.245	0.116
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.822	0.145
predicted_AVG	0.327	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.172	-0.086
predicted_H	1.231	0.081
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.099	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.349	0.000
predicted_R	0.639	0.123
predicted_RBI	0.769	0.049
predicted_SLG	0.486	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.845	0.071

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.82), rates preserved: AVG=0.322 HR/AB=0.026

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	7.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	4.000	0.000	5.000	0.3500	0.3500	0.4500	0.3500	0.0000	0.2000	0.0000	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	13.000	3.000	2.000	9.000	7.000	2.000	8.000	0.3333	0.3659	0.5641	0.3333	0.0513	0.2308	0.0513	0.2051
season	0.20	31	-	114.000	30.000	4.000	5.000	19.000	16.000	8.000	24.000	0.2632	0.3171	0.4298	0.2632	0.0439	0.1667	0.0702	0.2105

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3080
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.9000
predicted_AVG	0.3268
predicted_BB	0.1250
predicted_H	1.2750
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.1040
predicted_OBP	0.3490
predicted_R	0.7060
predicted_RBI	0.7960
predicted_SLG	0.4859
predicted_SO	0.8830

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1290	0.3080	0.2454	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6770	3.9000	3.8220	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3270	0.3268	0.3269	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2580	0.1250	0.1715	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1500	1.2750	1.2312	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.1040	0.0991	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3490	0.3490	0.3490	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5160	0.7060	0.6395	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7200	0.7960	0.7694	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4860	0.4859	0.4859	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7740	0.8830	0.8449	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.263

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	2
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.6
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260505_MIN@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	686797
playerID	686797
playerName	Brooks Lee
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	MIN
teamID	17

Trevor Larnach (663616) · BATTER · LF · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 23

All-history rows before 20260506: 23

System season_avg: 0.2990

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2987

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.261	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.261	1.000	-0.261	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.043	1.000	1.000	Hitting_3B	0.043	0.000	0.957	1.000
predicted_AB	3.348	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.348	5.000	1.652	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.342	0.400	0.400	Hitting_AVG	0.299	0.400	0.101	0.000
predicted_BB	0.696	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.696	0.000	-0.696	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.110	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	1.000	2.000	1.000	0.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.422	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.419	0.400	-0.019	0.000
predicted_R	0.609	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.609	0.000	0.391	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.450	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.478	2.000	-0.478	-2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.466	0.800	0.800	Hitting_SLG	0.442	0.600	0.358	0.200
predicted_SO	0.696	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.696	0.000	0.304	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.261	-
predicted_3B	0.043	-
predicted_AB	3.348	-
predicted_AVG	0.342	-
predicted_BB	0.696	-
predicted_H	1.110	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.422	-
predicted_R	0.609	-
predicted_RBI	0.450	-
predicted_SLG	0.466	-
predicted_SO	0.696	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.311	0.050
predicted_3B	0.042	-0.001
predicted_AB	3.548	0.200
predicted_AVG	0.342	0.000
predicted_BB	0.568	-0.128
predicted_H	1.202	0.092
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.009	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.422	-0.000
predicted_R	0.606	-0.003
predicted_RBI	0.489	0.039
predicted_SLG	0.466	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.691	-0.005

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.55), rates preserved: AVG=0.339 HR/AB=0.003

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	1.000	1.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 23

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	7.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	0.3889	0.4500	0.5000	0.3889	0.0000	0.1667	0.1111	0.1667
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	12.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	6.000	5.000	8.000	0.3077	0.3864	0.4359	0.3077	0.0000	0.1026	0.1282	0.2051
season	0.20	23	-	77.000	23.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	11.000	14.000	16.000	16.000	0.2987	0.4194	0.4416	0.2987	0.0130	0.1429	0.2078	0.2078

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3380
predicted_3B	0.0420
predicted_AB	3.6550
predicted_AVG	0.3424
predicted_BB	0.4990
predicted_H	1.2510
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0090
predicted_OBP	0.4216
predicted_R	0.6040
predicted_RBI	0.5100
predicted_SLG	0.4659
predicted_SO	0.6880

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2610	0.3380	0.3111	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0430	0.0420	0.0423	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3480	3.6550	3.5476	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3420	0.3424	0.3423	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6960	0.4990	0.5679	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1100	1.2510	1.2016	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0090	0.0094	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4220	0.4216	0.4217	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6090	0.6040	0.6058	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4500	0.5100	0.4890	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4660	0.4659	0.4659	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6960	0.6880	0.6908	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	23
Season rows before report date	23
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	23
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	1
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.299

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260505_MIN@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	663616
playerID	663616
playerName	Trevor Larnach
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	MIN
teamID	17

Victor Caratini (605170) · BATTER · C · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 24

All-history rows before 20260506: 24

System season_avg: 0.2070

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2073

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.042	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.042	0.000	-0.042	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.417	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.417	3.000	0.583	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.108	0.750	0.750	Hitting_AVG	0.207	0.333	0.543	0.417
predicted_BB	0.375	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.375	1.000	-0.375	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.320	3.000	3.000	Hitting_H	0.708	1.000	2.292	2.000
predicted_HR	0.010	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.042	0.000	0.958	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.206	0.750	0.750	Hitting_OBP	0.310	0.500	0.440	0.250
predicted_R	0.250	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.250	1.000	0.750	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.280	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	1.000	1.500	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.117	1.500	1.500	Hitting_SLG	0.256	0.333	1.244	1.167
predicted_SO	0.708	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.708	1.000	0.292	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.042	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.417	-
predicted_AVG	0.108	-
predicted_BB	0.375	-
predicted_H	0.320	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.206	-
predicted_R	0.250	-
predicted_RBI	0.280	-
predicted_SLG	0.117	-
predicted_SO	0.708	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.021	-0.022
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.466	0.049
predicted_AVG	0.108	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.285	-0.090
predicted_H	0.356	0.036
predicted_HBP	0.238	-
predicted_HR	0.009	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.206	0.000
predicted_R	0.201	-0.049
predicted_RBI	0.315	0.034
predicted_SLG	0.117	0.000
predicted_SO	1.030	0.322

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.47), rates preserved: AVG=0.103 HR/AB=0.003

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=16.0, BvP AVG=0.375)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 24

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	8.000	0.0556	0.1500	0.0556	0.0556	0.0000	0.0556	0.0556	0.4444
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	10.000	0.1176	0.2195	0.1176	0.1177	0.0000	0.1177	0.0588	0.2941
season	0.20	24	-	82.000	17.000	1.000	1.000	12.000	6.000	9.000	17.000	0.2073	0.3100	0.2561	0.2073	0.0122	0.1463	0.1098	0.2073

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0090
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.4930
predicted_AVG	0.1076
predicted_BB	0.2360
predicted_H	0.3760
predicted_HBP	0.2380
predicted_HR	0.0090
predicted_OBP	0.2063
predicted_R	0.1740
predicted_RBI	0.3330
predicted_SLG	0.1174
predicted_SO	1.2030

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0420	0.0090	0.0205	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4170	3.4930	3.4664	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1080	0.1076	0.1077	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3750	0.2360	0.2846	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3200	0.3760	0.3564	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.2380	0.2380	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0090	0.0094	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2060	0.2063	0.2062	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2500	0.1740	0.2006	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2800	0.3330	0.3145	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1170	0.1174	0.1173	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7080	1.2030	1.0297	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	24
Season rows before report date	24
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	24
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	3
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.207

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260503_TOR@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	605170
playerID	605170
playerName	Victor Caratini
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	MIN
teamID	17

Kody Clemens (665019) · BATTER · 1B · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 21

All-history rows before 20260506: 21

System season_avg: 0.2130

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2133

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.190	0.000	-0.190	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.571	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.571	2.000	-0.571	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.243	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.213	0.000	0.120	0.333
predicted_BB	0.524	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.524	2.000	0.476	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.095	0.000	-0.095	0.000
predicted_H	0.810	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.762	0.000	0.238	1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.143	0.000	0.857	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.412	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.337	0.600	0.163	-0.100
predicted_R	0.524	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.524	3.000	0.476	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.429	0.000	0.571	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.190	0.000	-0.190	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.387	1.333	1.333	Hitting_SLG	0.387	0.000	0.947	1.333
predicted_SO	1.095	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.095	0.000	-1.095	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.190	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.571	-
predicted_AVG	0.243	-
predicted_BB	0.524	-
predicted_H	0.810	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.412	-
predicted_R	0.524	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.387	-
predicted_SO	1.095	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.260	0.070
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.388	-0.183
predicted_AVG	0.243	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.695	0.171
predicted_H	0.802	-0.008
predicted_HBP	0.191	-
predicted_HR	0.059	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.412	-0.000
predicted_R	0.781	0.257
predicted_RBI	0.377	-0.003
predicted_SLG	0.387	0.000
predicted_SO	1.027	-0.068

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.57), rates preserved: AVG=0.225 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	5.000	5.000	0.2667	0.4762	0.4000	0.2667	0.0000	0.0667	0.3333	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	8.000	2.000	1.000	6.000	7.000	6.000	9.000	0.2286	0.3721	0.3714	0.2286	0.0286	0.1714	0.1714	0.2571
season	0.20	21	-	75.000	16.000	4.000	3.000	9.000	11.000	11.000	23.000	0.2133	0.3371	0.3867	0.2133	0.0400	0.1200	0.1467	0.3067

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2980
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.2890
predicted_AVG	0.2427
predicted_BB	0.7870
predicted_H	0.7980
predicted_HBP	0.1910
predicted_HR	0.0590
predicted_OBP	0.4119
predicted_R	0.9190
predicted_RBI	0.3750
predicted_SLG	0.3873
predicted_SO	0.9910

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1900	0.2980	0.2602	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5710	3.2890	3.3877	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2430	0.2427	0.2428	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5240	0.7870	0.6950	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8100	0.7980	0.8022	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1910	0.1910	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0590	0.0593	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4120	0.4119	0.4119	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5240	0.9190	0.7808	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.3750	0.3768	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3870	0.3873	0.3872	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0950	0.9910	1.0274	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.213

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	3
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260505_MIN@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	665019
playerID	665019
playerName	Kody Clemens
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	MIN
teamID	17

Tristan Gray (656484) · BATTER · 3B · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 15

All-history rows before 20260506: 15

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.067	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.467	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.467	3.000	0.533	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.277	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.333	0.250	0.167
predicted_BB	0.133	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.780	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.867	1.000	1.133	1.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.313	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.286	0.333	0.214	0.167
predicted_R	0.467	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.467	1.000	-0.467	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.867	0.000	-0.867	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.444	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.442	0.333	0.058	0.167
predicted_SO	1.267	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.267	1.000	-1.267	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.067	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.467	-
predicted_AVG	0.277	-
predicted_BB	0.133	-
predicted_H	0.780	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.313	-
predicted_R	0.467	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.444	-
predicted_SO	1.267	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.033	-0.035
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.617	0.150
predicted_AVG	0.277	0.000
predicted_BB	0.145	0.012
predicted_H	0.939	0.159
predicted_HBP	0.049	-
predicted_HR	0.182	0.033
predicted_OBP	0.313	0.000
predicted_R	0.593	0.126
predicted_RBI	0.491	0.081
predicted_SLG	0.444	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.222	-0.045

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.62), rates preserved: AVG=0.260 HR/AB=0.050

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	6.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	5.000	0.3158	0.3500	0.4737	0.3158	0.0526	0.1053	0.0526	0.2632
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	9.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	6.000	1.000	14.000	0.2432	0.2821	0.4054	0.2432	0.0541	0.1351	0.0270	0.3784
season	0.20	15	-	52.000	13.000	1.000	3.000	13.000	7.000	2.000	19.000	0.2500	0.2857	0.4423	0.2500	0.0577	0.2500	0.0385	0.3654

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0140
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.6980
predicted_AVG	0.2772
predicted_BB	0.1510
predicted_H	1.0250
predicted_HBP	0.0490
predicted_HR	0.2000
predicted_OBP	0.3134
predicted_R	0.6600
predicted_RBI	0.5350
predicted_SLG	0.4435
predicted_SO	1.1980

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0670	0.0140	0.0325	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4670	3.6980	3.6172	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2770	0.2772	0.2771	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1330	0.1510	0.1447	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7800	1.0250	0.9392	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0490	0.0490	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.2000	0.1825	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3130	0.3134	0.3133	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4670	0.6600	0.5925	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.5350	0.4913	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4440	0.4435	0.4437	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2670	1.1980	1.2221	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260502_TOR@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	656484
playerID	656484
playerName	Tristan Gray
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	MIN
teamID	17

Luke Keaschall (807712) · BATTER · 2B · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 34

All-history rows before 20260506: 34

System season_avg: 0.2310

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2308

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.206	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.206	0.000	-0.206	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.824	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.824	2.000	0.176	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.272	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.231	0.500	-0.231	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.382	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.382	3.000	-0.382	-3.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.880	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.882	1.000	-0.882	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.403	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.301	0.800	-0.301	-0.800
predicted_R	0.471	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.471	2.000	-0.471	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.441	0.000	-0.441	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.235	1.000	-0.235	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.420	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.308	0.500	-0.308	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.647	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.647	0.000	-0.647	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.206	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.824	-
predicted_AVG	0.272	-
predicted_BB	0.382	-
predicted_H	0.880	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.403	-
predicted_R	0.471	-
predicted_RBI	0.370	-
predicted_SLG	0.420	-
predicted_SO	0.647	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.376	0.170
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.464	-0.360
predicted_AVG	0.272	0.000
predicted_BB	0.653	0.271
predicted_H	0.886	0.006
predicted_HBP	0.040	-
predicted_HR	0.003	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.403	0.000
predicted_R	0.585	0.114
predicted_RBI	0.374	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.420	0.000
predicted_SO	0.606	-0.041

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.82), rates preserved: AVG=0.232 HR/AB=0.001

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.824

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	4.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	5.000	2.000	0.2667	0.4286	0.4667	0.2667	0.0000	0.1333	0.3333	0.1333
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	10.000	4.000	0.000	3.000	5.000	7.000	8.000	0.3030	0.4286	0.4242	0.3030	0.0000	0.0909	0.2121	0.2424
season	0.20	34	-	130.000	30.000	7.000	1.000	15.000	16.000	13.000	22.000	0.2308	0.3014	0.3077	0.2308	0.0077	0.1154	0.1000	0.1692

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.4680
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.2700
predicted_AVG	0.2722
predicted_BB	0.7990
predicted_H	0.8900
predicted_HBP	0.0400
predicted_HR	0.0050
predicted_OBP	0.4032
predicted_R	0.6460
predicted_RBI	0.3760
predicted_SLG	0.4200
predicted_SO	0.5840

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2060	0.4680	0.3763	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8240	3.2700	3.4639	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2720	0.2722	0.2721	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3820	0.7990	0.6531	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8800	0.8900	0.8865	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0400	0.0400	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0050	0.0033	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4030	0.4032	0.4031	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4710	0.6460	0.5847	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3700	0.3760	0.3739	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4200	0.4200	0.4200	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6470	0.5840	0.6060	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.231

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	3
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260505_MIN@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	807712
playerID	807712
playerName	Luke Keaschall
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	MIN
teamID	17

Bailey Ober (641927) · PITCHER · Starter · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 7

All-history rows before 20260506: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	2.143	1.000	-1.143	0.000
predicted_IP	4.000	4.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.329	6.000	-1.329	-2.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	4.143	2.000	-2.143	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	30.000	9.000	22.000	10.000	24.000	3.000	2.7000	1.0667	0.3000	0.7333	0.3333	0.8000	0.1000
last_10	0.35	7	38.000	15.000	30.000	13.000	29.000	4.000	3.5526	1.1316	0.3947	0.7895	0.3421	0.7632	0.1053
season	0.20	7	38.000	15.000	30.000	13.000	29.000	4.000	3.5526	1.1316	0.3947	0.7895	0.3421	0.7632	0.1053

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.9230
predicted_ER	2.0020
predicted_ERA	3.1689
predicted_H	4.3450
predicted_HR	0.5850
predicted_IP	5.6860
predicted_SO	4.4330
predicted_WHIP	1.1024

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	1.9230	1.9500	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	2.0020	1.6513	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.1689	3.1689	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	4.3450	4.2242	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.5850	0.3802	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.0000	5.6860	5.0959	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	4.4330	3.5815	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1024	1.1024	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.0
H	4
R	1
ER	1
BB	2
SO	2
HR	0
BF	18
Pitches	80

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	24
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	3.55
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	7
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	88
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	57
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260430_TOR@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	641927
playerID	641927
playerName	Bailey Ober
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	MIN
teamID	17

Eric Orze (679358) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 15

All-history rows before 20260506: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.600	1.000	-0.600	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.987	1.000	0.013	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.067	1.000	-0.067	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	5.000	7.000	4.000	6.000	7.5000	1.8333	0.8333	1.1667	0.6667	1.0000
last_10	0.35	10	11.000	8.000	13.000	5.000	12.000	6.5455	1.6364	0.7273	1.1818	0.4546	1.0909
season	0.20	15	16.667	9.000	16.000	8.000	16.000	4.8600	1.4400	0.5400	0.9600	0.4800	0.9600

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6370
predicted_ER	0.8460
predicted_ERA	6.6379
predicted_H	1.2970
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.1470
predicted_SO	1.1750
predicted_WHIP	1.6857

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.6370	0.4141	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.8460	0.5499	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	6.6379	6.6379	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.2970	0.8430	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.1470	1.0956	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1750	1.1138	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.6857	1.6857	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	4.86
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_MIN@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	679358
playerID	679358
playerName	Eric Orze
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIN
teamID	17

Justin Topa (623437) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 20

All-history rows before 20260506: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.400	2.000	0.600	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.665	1.000	0.335	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.600	0.000	-0.600	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.667	3.000	6.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	5.7857	1.5000	0.6429	1.2857	0.2143	1.0714	0.4286
last_10	0.35	10	8.667	4.000	9.000	3.000	7.000	2.000	4.1538	1.3846	0.4615	1.0385	0.3462	0.8077	0.2308
season	0.20	20	16.333	8.000	19.000	6.000	12.000	3.000	4.4082	1.5306	0.4898	1.1633	0.3674	0.7347	0.1837

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2580
predicted_ER	0.4870
predicted_ERA	4.9390
predicted_H	1.0420
predicted_HR	0.2750
predicted_IP	0.8870
predicted_SO	0.8080
predicted_WHIP	1.4657

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.2580	0.5177	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.4870	0.6665	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.9390	4.9390	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.0420	1.0273	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2750	0.1788	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.8870	0.9265	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.8080	0.5252	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4657	1.4657	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	4.70
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_TOR@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	623437
playerID	623437
playerName	Justin Topa
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIN
teamID	17

Kody Funderburk (681892) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 16

All-history rows before 20260506: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.188	0.000	-0.188	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.600	0.100	0.400	0.900
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.667	1.000	2.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	1.9286	1.0714	0.2143	0.4286	0.6429	0.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	1.000	3.000	8.000	2.000	0.000	1.0000	1.2222	0.1111	0.3333	0.8889	0.2222	0.0000
season	0.20	16	13.333	3.000	8.000	10.000	8.000	1.000	2.0250	1.3500	0.2250	0.6000	0.7500	0.6000	0.0750

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6770
predicted_ER	0.1630
predicted_ERA	1.6229
predicted_H	0.3870
predicted_HR	0.0140
predicted_IP	0.9020
predicted_SO	0.1780
predicted_WHIP	1.1799

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.6770	0.4401	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1630	0.1060	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.6229	1.6229	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.3870	0.2515	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0140	0.0091	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.9020	0.9363	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.1780	0.4657	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1799	1.1799	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	12

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	1
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.03
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	3
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	2
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_TOR@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	681892
playerID	681892
playerName	Kody Funderburk
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIN
teamID	17

Luis García (472610) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 4

All-history rows before 20260506: 4

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.500	0.000	-0.500	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.750	1.000	0.250	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.333	5.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	10.3846	1.8462	1.1539	1.3846	0.4615	0.2308
last_10	0.35	9	9.333	7.000	13.000	3.000	4.000	6.7500	1.7143	0.7500	1.3929	0.3214	0.4286
season	0.20	9	9.333	7.000	13.000	3.000	4.000	6.7500	1.7143	0.7500	1.3929	0.3214	0.4286

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3690
predicted_ER	0.8950
predicted_ERA	8.3856
predicted_H	1.3340
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	0.9600
predicted_SO	0.3260
predicted_WHIP	1.7737

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3690	0.2399	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.8950	0.9317	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	8.3856	8.3856	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	1.3340	1.9171	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.9600	0.9740	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.3260	0.5619	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.7737	1.7737	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	4
Season rows before report date	4
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	3
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	27

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	10.61
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_MIN@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	472610
playerID	472610
playerName	Luis García
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIN
teamID	17

Taylor Rogers (573124) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 15

All-history rows before 20260506: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.533	1.000	-0.533	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.740	2.100	0.260	-1.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.667	3.000	-0.667	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.667	2.000	7.000	2.000	3.000	3.1765	1.5882	0.3529	1.2353	0.3529	0.5294
last_10	0.35	10	10.333	3.000	12.000	5.000	7.000	2.6129	1.6452	0.2903	1.1613	0.4839	0.6774
season	0.20	14	13.667	5.000	16.000	5.000	10.000	3.2927	1.5366	0.3659	1.1707	0.3659	0.7317

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4280
predicted_ER	0.3560
predicted_ERA	3.0025
predicted_H	1.2760
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0670
predicted_SO	0.6630
predicted_WHIP	1.5978

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.4280	0.6282	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3560	0.2314	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.0025	3.0025	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	1.2760	1.5294	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0670	1.0435	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.6630	0.4310	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5978	1.5978	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	27

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	12
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	5.27
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.1
Pitching_Pitches	32
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	23
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_TOR@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	573124
playerID	573124
playerName	Taylor Rogers
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIN
teamID	17

Home Team: WAS

James Wood (695578) · BATTER · RF · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 36

All-history rows before 20260506: 36

System season_avg: 0.2320

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2319

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.222	1.000	-0.222	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.833	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.833	4.000	0.167	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.176	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.232	0.250	0.018	0.000
predicted_BB	0.861	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.861	0.000	0.139	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_H	0.670	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.889	1.000	0.111	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.278	0.000	-0.278	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.277	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.380	0.250	0.020	0.150
predicted_R	0.833	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.833	0.000	-0.833	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.694	1.000	-0.694	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.139	0.000	-0.139	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.274	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.507	0.500	-0.257	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.556	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.556	2.000	-0.556	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.222	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.833	-
predicted_AVG	0.176	-
predicted_BB	0.861	-
predicted_H	0.670	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.277	-
predicted_R	0.833	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.274	-
predicted_SO	1.556	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.210	-0.012
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.771	-0.062
predicted_AVG	0.176	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.657	-0.204
predicted_H	0.662	-0.008
predicted_HBP	0.011	-
predicted_HR	0.056	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.277	0.000
predicted_R	0.492	-0.341
predicted_RBI	0.373	-0.007
predicted_SLG	0.274	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.603	0.047

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.83), rates preserved: AVG=0.173 HR/AB=0.015

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.833

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	8.000	0.1579	0.2000	0.2105	0.1579	0.0000	0.0526	0.0526	0.4210
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	4.000	8.000	17.000	0.1667	0.3182	0.2222	0.1667	0.0000	0.1111	0.2222	0.4722
season	0.20	36	-	138.000	32.000	8.000	10.000	25.000	30.000	31.000	56.000	0.2319	0.3801	0.5072	0.2319	0.0725	0.1812	0.2246	0.4058

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2040
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7370
predicted_AVG	0.1758
predicted_BB	0.5470
predicted_H	0.6570
predicted_HBP	0.0110
predicted_HR	0.0540
predicted_OBP	0.2774
predicted_R	0.3080
predicted_RBI	0.3690
predicted_SLG	0.2739
predicted_SO	1.6290

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2220	0.2040	0.2103	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8330	3.7370	3.7706	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1760	0.1758	0.1759	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.8610	0.5470	0.6569	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6700	0.6570	0.6616	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0110	0.0110	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0540	0.0561	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2770	0.2774	0.2773	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8330	0.3080	0.4918	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.3690	0.3729	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2740	0.2739	0.2739	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.5560	1.6290	1.6035	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.232

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260505_MIN@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	695578
playerID	695578
playerName	James Wood
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	WAS
teamID	30

Nasim Nuñez (683083) · BATTER · 2B · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 30

All-history rows before 20260506: 30

System season_avg: 0.2180

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2178

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.033	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.033	0.000	-0.033	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.367	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.367	3.000	-0.367	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.298	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.218	0.000	0.116	0.333
predicted_BB	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.500	1.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_H	0.820	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.733	0.000	0.267	1.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.411	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.325	0.250	0.175	0.250
predicted_R	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.467	0.000	-0.467	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.300	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.228	0.000	0.106	0.333
predicted_SO	0.733	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.733	0.000	-0.733	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.033	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.367	-
predicted_AVG	0.298	-
predicted_BB	0.500	-
predicted_H	0.820	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.411	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.300	-
predicted_SO	0.733	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.015	-0.018
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.176	-0.191
predicted_AVG	0.298	0.000
predicted_BB	0.554	0.054
predicted_H	0.884	0.064
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.411	-0.000
predicted_R	0.568	0.068
predicted_RBI	0.455	0.035
predicted_SLG	0.300	0.000
predicted_SO	0.520	-0.213

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.37), rates preserved: AVG=0.262 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	5.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	1.000	0.3333	0.4444	0.3333	0.3333	0.1333	0.2000	0.0667
last_10	0.35	10	-	30.000	9.000	0.000	6.000	4.000	6.000	5.000	0.3000	0.4167	0.3000	0.3000	0.2000	0.2000	0.1667
season	0.20	30	-	101.000	22.000	1.000	12.000	15.000	15.000	22.000	0.2178	0.3248	0.2277	0.2178	0.1188	0.1485	0.2178

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0060
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.0730
predicted_AVG	0.2985
predicted_BB	0.5830
predicted_H	0.9180
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.4108
predicted_R	0.6040
predicted_RBI	0.4730
predicted_SLG	0.3005
predicted_SO	0.4050

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0330	0.0060	0.0155	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3670	3.0730	3.1759	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2980	0.2985	0.2983	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5000	0.5830	0.5539	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8200	0.9180	0.8837	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4110	0.4108	0.4109	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.6040	0.5676	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.4730	0.4545	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3000	0.3005	0.3003	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7330	0.4050	0.5198	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.218

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260505_MIN@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	683083
playerID	683083
playerName	Nasim Nuñez
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	WAS
teamID	30

Curtis Mead (678554) · BATTER · 1B · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 13

All-history rows before 20260506: 13

System season_avg: 0.2800

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2800

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.385	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.385	1.000	-0.385	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.846	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.846	4.000	1.154	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.303	0.400	0.400	Hitting_AVG	0.280	0.500	0.120	-0.100
predicted_BB	0.385	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.385	0.000	-0.385	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.130	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	1.077	2.000	0.923	0.000
predicted_HR	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.231	0.000	-0.231	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.380	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.357	0.500	0.043	-0.100
predicted_R	0.692	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.692	0.000	0.308	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.590	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.692	1.000	0.308	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.584	0.400	0.400	Hitting_SLG	0.560	0.750	-0.160	-0.350
predicted_SO	0.615	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.615	0.000	-0.615	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.385	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.846	-
predicted_AVG	0.303	-
predicted_BB	0.385	-
predicted_H	1.130	-
predicted_HR	0.200	-
predicted_OBP	0.380	-
predicted_R	0.692	-
predicted_RBI	0.590	-
predicted_SLG	0.584	-
predicted_SO	0.615	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.450	0.065
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.903	0.057
predicted_AVG	0.303	0.000
predicted_BB	0.358	-0.027
predicted_H	1.171	0.041
predicted_HBP	0.140	-
predicted_HR	0.204	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.380	0.000
predicted_R	0.806	0.114
predicted_RBI	0.609	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.584	0.000
predicted_SO	0.469	-0.146

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.90), rates preserved: AVG=0.300 HR/AB=0.052

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 3.846

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	7.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	0.3500	0.4091	0.6500	0.3500	0.0500	0.1500	0.0500	0.0500
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	10.000	4.000	2.000	6.000	8.000	5.000	5.000	0.2564	0.3556	0.5128	0.2564	0.0513	0.1538	0.1282	0.1282
season	0.20	13	-	50.000	14.000	5.000	3.000	9.000	9.000	5.000	8.000	0.2800	0.3571	0.5600	0.2800	0.0600	0.1800	0.1000	0.1600

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.4850
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.9340
predicted_AVG	0.3032
predicted_BB	0.3440
predicted_H	1.1930
predicted_HBP	0.1400
predicted_HR	0.2060
predicted_OBP	0.3800
predicted_R	0.8670
predicted_RBI	0.6190
predicted_SLG	0.5840
predicted_SO	0.3910

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3850	0.4850	0.4500	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8460	3.9340	3.9032	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3030	0.3032	0.3031	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3850	0.3440	0.3583	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1300	1.1930	1.1709	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1400	0.1400	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2000	0.2060	0.2039	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3800	0.3800	0.3800	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6920	0.8670	0.8057	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5900	0.6190	0.6089	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5840	0.5840	0.5840	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6150	0.3910	0.4694	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.28

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260505_MIN@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	678554
playerID	678554
playerName	Curtis Mead
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	WAS
teamID	30

Daylen Lile (695734) · BATTER · LF · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 35

All-history rows before 20260506: 35

System season_avg: 0.2480

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2482

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.257	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.257	1.000	0.743	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.029	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.029	3.000	-0.029	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.141	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.248	0.333	0.002	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.400	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.400	1.000	0.600	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.086	0.000	-0.086	0.000
predicted_H	0.550	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.086	0.000	-0.086	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.235	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.316	0.500	0.084	-0.100
predicted_R	0.629	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.629	2.000	-0.629	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.239	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.376	0.667	0.124	-0.167
predicted_SO	0.829	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.829	1.000	0.171	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.257	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.029	-
predicted_AVG	0.141	-
predicted_BB	0.400	-
predicted_H	0.550	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.235	-
predicted_R	0.629	-
predicted_RBI	0.110	-
predicted_SLG	0.239	-
predicted_SO	0.829	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.289	0.032
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.748	-0.281
predicted_AVG	0.141	0.000
predicted_BB	0.424	0.024
predicted_H	0.523	-0.027
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.017	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.235	-0.000
predicted_R	0.637	0.008
predicted_RBI	0.107	-0.003
predicted_SLG	0.239	0.000
predicted_SO	0.929	0.100

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.03), rates preserved: AVG=0.130 HR/AB=0.004

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 4.029

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	2.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	4.000	0.1176	0.2105	0.2353	0.1177	0.0000	0.0000	0.1177	0.2353
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	7.000	5.000	13.000	0.1111	0.2195	0.1667	0.1111	0.0000	0.0278	0.1389	0.3611
season	0.20	35	-	141.000	35.000	9.000	3.000	14.000	22.000	14.000	29.000	0.2482	0.3161	0.3759	0.2482	0.0213	0.0993	0.0993	0.2057

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3060
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.5960
predicted_AVG	0.1414
predicted_BB	0.4370
predicted_H	0.5090
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0150
predicted_OBP	0.2348
predicted_R	0.6420
predicted_RBI	0.1060
predicted_SLG	0.2394
predicted_SO	0.9830

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2570	0.3060	0.2888	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0290	3.5960	3.7475	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1410	0.1414	0.1413	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4000	0.4370	0.4241	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5500	0.5090	0.5233	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0150	0.0168	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2350	0.2348	0.2349	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6290	0.6420	0.6374	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1100	0.1060	0.1074	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2390	0.2394	0.2393	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8290	0.9830	0.9291	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.248

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260505_MIN@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	695734
playerID	695734
playerName	Daylen Lile
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	WAS
teamID	30

Jose Fernandez (699912) · BATTER · DH · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 0

All-history rows before 20260506: 0

System season_avg: 0.3150

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): -

Diff (system - data): -

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.125	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	-	-	-	-
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	-	-	-	-
predicted_AB	3.708	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	-	-	-	-
predicted_AVG	0.229	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	-	-	-	-
predicted_BB	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	-	-	-	-
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	-	-	-	-
predicted_H	0.740	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	-	-	-	-
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	-	-	-	-
predicted_OBP	0.329	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	-	-	-	-
predicted_R	0.792	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	-	-	-	-
predicted_RBI	0.180	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	-	-	-	-
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	-	-	-	-
predicted_SLG	0.296	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	-	-	-	-
predicted_SO	0.833	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	-	-	-	-

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.708	-
predicted_AVG	0.229	-
predicted_BB	0.167	-
predicted_H	0.740	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.329	-
predicted_R	0.792	-
predicted_RBI	0.180	-
predicted_SLG	0.296	-
predicted_SO	0.833	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.081	-0.044
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.512	-0.196
predicted_AVG	0.229	0.000
predicted_BB	0.292	0.125
predicted_H	0.767	0.027
predicted_HBP	0.138	-
predicted_HR	0.055	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.329	-0.000
predicted_R	0.696	-0.096
predicted_RBI	0.189	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.296	0.000
predicted_SO	0.711	-0.122

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.207 HR/AB=0.015

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 24

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	0.1250	0.2632	0.1250	0.1250	0.0000	0.0000	0.1250	0.1875
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	11.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	9.000	4.000	6.000	0.3143	0.4000	0.4286	0.3143	0.0286	0.0857	0.1143	0.1714
season	0.20	24	-	89.000	28.000	3.000	3.000	12.000	19.000	4.000	20.000	0.3146	0.3511	0.4494	0.3146	0.0337	0.1348	0.0449	0.2247

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0570
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.4070
predicted_AVG	0.2292
predicted_BB	0.3590
predicted_H	0.7810
predicted_HBP	0.1380
predicted_HR	0.0570
predicted_OBP	0.3287
predicted_R	0.6440
predicted_RBI	0.1940
predicted_SLG	0.2961
predicted_SO	0.6450

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1250	0.0570	0.0808	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7080	3.4070	3.5124	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2290	0.2292	0.2291	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1670	0.3590	0.2918	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7400	0.7810	0.7667	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1380	0.1380	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0570	0.0546	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3290	0.3287	0.3288	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7920	0.6440	0.6958	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1800	0.1940	0.1891	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2960	0.2961	0.2961	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8330	0.6450	0.7108	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	0
Season rows before report date	0
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	24
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.315

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

No historical data found for this player before report date.

CJ Abrams (682928) · BATTER · SS · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 34

All-history rows before 20260506: 34

System season_avg: 0.2890

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2893

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.118	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.118	0.000	0.882	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.559	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.559	4.000	1.441	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.290	0.400	0.400	Hitting_AVG	0.289	0.000	0.111	0.400
predicted_BB	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_H	0.990	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	1.029	0.000	0.971	2.000
predicted_HR	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.235	0.000	-0.235	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.388	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.397	0.000	0.003	0.400
predicted_R	0.559	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.559	0.000	0.441	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.920	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.824	1.000	0.176	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.206	1.000	-0.206	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.486	0.600	0.600	Hitting_SLG	0.521	0.000	0.079	0.600
predicted_SO	0.765	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.765	2.000	0.235	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.118	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.559	-
predicted_AVG	0.290	-
predicted_BB	0.500	-
predicted_H	0.990	-
predicted_HR	0.200	-
predicted_OBP	0.388	-
predicted_R	0.559	-
predicted_RBI	0.920	-
predicted_SLG	0.486	-
predicted_SO	0.765	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.079	-0.039
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.499	-0.060
predicted_AVG	0.290	0.000
predicted_BB	0.530	0.030
predicted_H	1.000	0.010
predicted_HBP	0.034	-
predicted_HR	0.205	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.388	-0.000
predicted_R	0.618	0.058
predicted_RBI	0.927	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.486	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.866	0.101

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.56), rates preserved: AVG=0.281 HR/AB=0.057

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	4.000	3.000	5.000	0.2941	0.4000	0.4706	0.2941	0.0588	0.2941	0.1765	0.2941
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	10.000	1.000	2.000	9.000	5.000	5.000	9.000	0.2857	0.3659	0.4857	0.2857	0.0571	0.2571	0.1429	0.2571
season	0.20	34	-	121.000	35.000	4.000	8.000	28.000	19.000	17.000	26.000	0.2893	0.3973	0.5207	0.2893	0.0661	0.2314	0.1405	0.2149

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0580
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.4670
predicted_AVG	0.2902
predicted_BB	0.5460
predicted_H	1.0060
predicted_HBP	0.0340
predicted_HR	0.2070
predicted_OBP	0.3875
predicted_R	0.6490
predicted_RBI	0.9310
predicted_SLG	0.4859
predicted_SO	0.9200

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1180	0.0580	0.0790	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5590	3.4670	3.4992	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2900	0.2902	0.2901	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5000	0.5460	0.5299	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9900	1.0060	1.0004	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0340	0.0340	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2000	0.2070	0.2046	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3880	0.3875	0.3877	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5590	0.6490	0.6175	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.9200	0.9310	0.9272	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4860	0.4859	0.4859	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7650	0.9200	0.8658	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.289

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260505_MIN@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	682928
playerID	682928
playerName	CJ Abrams
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	WAS
teamID	30

Drew Millas (686452) · BATTER · C · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 17

All-history rows before 20260506: 17

System season_avg: 0.1540

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1538

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.118	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.059	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.059	2.000	0.941	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.127	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.154	0.000	0.096	0.250
predicted_BB	0.294	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.294	1.000	-0.294	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.320	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.471	0.000	0.529	1.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.183	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.228	0.333	0.022	-0.083
predicted_R	0.294	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.294	0.000	-0.294	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.158	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.192	0.000	0.058	0.250
predicted_SO	1.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.118	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.059	-
predicted_AVG	0.127	-
predicted_BB	0.294	-
predicted_H	0.320	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.183	-
predicted_R	0.294	-
predicted_RBI	0.020	-
predicted_SLG	0.158	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.097	-0.021
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.853	-0.206
predicted_AVG	0.127	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.225	-0.069
predicted_H	0.338	0.018
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.183	-0.000
predicted_R	0.287	-0.007
predicted_RBI	0.021	0.001
predicted_SLG	0.158	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.942	-0.058

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.06), rates preserved: AVG=0.110 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	12.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	0.0833	0.1538	0.0833	0.0833	0.0000	0.0833	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	30.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	1.000	10.000	0.1667	0.1935	0.2333	0.1667	0.0000	0.0333	0.3333
season	0.20	17	-	52.000	8.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	5.000	17.000	0.1538	0.2281	0.1923	0.1538	0.0385	0.0961	0.3269

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0850
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.7420
predicted_AVG	0.1266
predicted_BB	0.1880
predicted_H	0.3470
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.1826
predicted_R	0.2830
predicted_RBI	0.0210
predicted_SLG	0.1576
predicted_SO	0.9100

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1180	0.0850	0.0965	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0590	2.7420	2.8529	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1270	0.1266	0.1267	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2940	0.1880	0.2251	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3200	0.3470	0.3376	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1830	0.1826	0.1827	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2940	0.2830	0.2868	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0200	0.0210	0.0207	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1580	0.1576	0.1577	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9100	0.9415	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.154

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	1
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260501_MIL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	686452
playerID	686452
playerName	Drew Millas
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	WAS
teamID	30

Brady House (691781) · BATTER · 3B · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 27

All-history rows before 20260506: 27

System season_avg: 0.2140

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2143

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.148	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.148	0.000	-0.148	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.148	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.148	4.000	-0.148	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.157	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.214	0.250	0.036	0.000
predicted_BB	0.333	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.610	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.889	1.000	0.111	0.000
predicted_HR	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.148	0.000	-0.148	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.236	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.273	0.250	0.127	0.150
predicted_R	0.444	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.444	0.000	-0.444	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.830	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.519	0.000	-0.519	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.316	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.357	0.250	-0.107	0.000
predicted_SO	1.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.370	1.000	-1.370	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.148	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.148	-
predicted_AVG	0.157	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.610	-
predicted_HR	0.200	-
predicted_OBP	0.236	-
predicted_R	0.444	-
predicted_RBI	0.830	-
predicted_SLG	0.316	-
predicted_SO	1.370	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.069	-0.079
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.909	-0.239
predicted_AVG	0.157	0.000
predicted_BB	0.369	0.036
predicted_H	0.600	-0.010
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.194	-0.006
predicted_OBP	0.236	0.000
predicted_R	0.360	-0.084
predicted_RBI	0.818	-0.012
predicted_SLG	0.316	0.000
predicted_SO	1.350	-0.020

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.15), rates preserved: AVG=0.145 HR/AB=0.047

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 4.148

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	0.1111	0.2000	0.2778	0.1111	0.0556	0.2778	0.1111	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	7.000	0.000	2.000	7.000	4.000	4.000	15.000	0.1842	0.2619	0.3421	0.1842	0.0526	0.1842	0.1053	0.3947
season	0.20	27	-	112.000	24.000	4.000	4.000	14.000	12.000	9.000	37.000	0.2143	0.2727	0.3571	0.2143	0.0357	0.1250	0.0804	0.3304

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0270
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7800
predicted_AVG	0.1573
predicted_BB	0.3890
predicted_H	0.5950
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1910
predicted_OBP	0.2362
predicted_R	0.3150
predicted_RBI	0.8110
predicted_SLG	0.3162
predicted_SO	1.3390

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1480	0.0270	0.0693	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1480	3.7800	3.9088	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1570	0.1573	0.1572	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.3890	0.3694	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6100	0.5950	0.6002	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2000	0.1910	0.1941	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2360	0.2362	0.2361	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4440	0.3150	0.3601	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.8300	0.8110	0.8176	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3160	0.3162	0.3161	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3700	1.3390	1.3498	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.214

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260502_MIL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	691781
playerID	691781
playerName	Brady House
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	WAS
teamID	30

Jacob Young (696285) · BATTER · CF · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 30

All-history rows before 20260506: 30

System season_avg: 0.2190

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2193

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_2B	0.133	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.133	0.000	-0.133
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.800	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.800	4.000	0.200
predicted_AVG	0.173	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.219	0.000	-0.219
predicted_BB	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.167	0.000	-0.167
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.033	0.000	-0.033
predicted_H	0.550	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.833	0.000	-0.833
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.067	0.000	-0.067
predicted_OBP	0.196	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.258	0.000	-0.258
predicted_R	0.367	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.367	0.000	-0.367
predicted_RBI	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.467	0.000	-0.467
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.033	0.000	-0.033
predicted_SLG	0.201	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.307	0.000	-0.307
predicted_SO	0.833	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.833	1.000	0.167

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.133	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.800	-
predicted_AVG	0.173	-
predicted_BB	0.167	-
predicted_H	0.550	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.196	-
predicted_R	0.367	-
predicted_RBI	0.250	-
predicted_SLG	0.201	-
predicted_SO	0.833	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.087	-0.046
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.755	-0.045
predicted_AVG	0.173	0.000
predicted_BB	0.127	-0.040
predicted_H	0.612	0.062
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.012	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.196	0.000
predicted_R	0.199	-0.168
predicted_RBI	0.275	0.025
predicted_SLG	0.201	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.083	0.250

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.80), rates preserved: AVG=0.161 HR/AB=0.003

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	7.000	0.1579	0.1579	0.1579	0.1579	0.0000	0.0526	0.0000	0.3684
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	12.000	0.1667	0.2105	0.1944	0.1667	0.0000	0.0833	0.0556	0.3333
season	0.20	30	-	114.000	25.000	4.000	2.000	14.000	11.000	5.000	25.000	0.2193	0.2583	0.3070	0.2193	0.0175	0.1228	0.0439	0.2193

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0620
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7300
predicted_AVG	0.1733
predicted_BB	0.1050
predicted_H	0.6460
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.0130
predicted_OBP	0.1964
predicted_R	0.1080
predicted_RBI	0.2890
predicted_SLG	0.2005
predicted_SO	1.2170

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1330	0.0620	0.0869	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8000	3.7300	3.7545	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1730	0.1733	0.1732	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1670	0.1050	0.1267	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5500	0.6460	0.6124	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0130	0.0119	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1960	0.1964	0.1963	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3670	0.1080	0.1986	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2500	0.2890	0.2753	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2010	0.2005	0.2007	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8330	1.2170	1.0826	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.219

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260505_MIN@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	696285
playerID	696285
playerName	Jacob Young
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	WAS
teamID	30

Miles Mikolas (571945) · PITCHER · Starter · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 7

All-history rows before 20260506: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	4.000	4.000	-	Pitching_ER	3.571	3.000	0.429	1.000
predicted_IP	5.000	5.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	3.771	4.000	1.229	1.000
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	-	Pitching_SO	2.714	3.000	1.286	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 5.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	18.000	10.000	19.000	7.000	11.000	3.000	5.0000	1.4444	0.5556	1.0556	0.3889	0.6111	0.1667
last_10	0.35	7	27.333	25.000	36.000	11.000	19.000	8.000	8.2317	1.7195	0.9146	1.3171	0.4024	0.6951	0.2927
season	0.20	7	27.333	25.000	36.000	11.000	19.000	8.000	8.2317	1.7195	0.9146	1.3171	0.4024	0.6951	0.2927

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.4930
predicted_ER	2.8370
predicted_ERA	6.7774
predicted_H	4.5190
predicted_HR	0.8890
predicted_IP	3.7680
predicted_SO	2.4770
predicted_WHIP	1.5957

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	1.4930	1.3205	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	4.0000	2.8370	3.2441	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	6.7774	6.7774	form_only
predicted_H	9.0000	4.5190	6.0874	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	2.0000	0.8890	1.2778	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.0000	3.7680	4.1992	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	4.0000	2.4770	3.0100	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5957	1.5957	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.0
H	9
R	4
ER	4
BB	1
SO	4
HR	2
BF	25
Pitches	103

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	16
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	8.23
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	7
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	4.0
Pitching_Pitches	79
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	49
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260430_WAS@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	571945
playerID	571945
playerName	Miles Mikolas
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	WAS
teamID	30

Brad Lord (695418) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 11

All-history rows before 20260506: 11

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.909	1.000	-0.909	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.982	2.000	-0.982	-1.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.455	2.000	-0.455	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	11.000	2.000	9.000	2.000	6.000	0.000	1.6364	1.0000	0.1818	0.8182	0.1818	0.5454	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	21.333	9.000	19.000	6.000	15.000	3.000	3.7969	1.1719	0.4219	0.8906	0.2812	0.7031	0.1406
season	0.20	11	23.667	10.000	23.000	6.000	16.000	3.000	3.8028	1.2254	0.4225	0.9718	0.2535	0.6761	0.1268

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5000
predicted_ER	0.6800
predicted_ERA	2.8259
predicted_H	1.8940
predicted_HR	0.1620
predicted_IP	2.1670
predicted_SO	1.3580
predicted_WHIP	1.1052

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5000	0.3250	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.6800	0.4420	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.8259	2.8259	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.8940	1.2311	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1620	0.1053	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	2.1670	1.7586	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.3580	1.2327	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1052	1.1052	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	12
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	3.80
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	50
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	30
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260502_MIL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	695418
playerID	695418
playerName	Brad Lord
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	WAS
teamID	30

Gus Varland (681402) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 14

All-history rows before 20260506: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.357	1.000	-0.357	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.786	0.200	0.214	0.800
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	0.000	-1.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.667	2.000	6.000	0.000	4.000	0.000	3.8571	1.2857	0.4286	1.2857	0.0000	0.8571	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.333	2.000	10.000	1.000	9.000	0.000	1.9286	1.1786	0.2143	1.0714	0.1071	0.9643	0.0000
season	0.20	14	13.333	5.000	15.000	3.000	14.000	1.000	3.3750	1.3500	0.3750	1.1250	0.2250	1.0500	0.0750

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.0770
predicted_ER	0.3210
predicted_ERA	3.0857
predicted_H	1.1040
predicted_HR	0.0140
predicted_IP	0.9370
predicted_SO	0.8750
predicted_WHIP	1.2611

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0770	0.0501	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3210	0.2087	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.0857	3.0857	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.1040	1.0676	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0140	0.0091	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.9370	0.9591	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.8750	0.5687	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2611	1.2611	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	3.38
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	9
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	5
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_MIL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	681402
playerID	681402
playerName	Gus Varland
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	WAS
teamID	30

PJ Poulin (676571) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 17

All-history rows before 20260506: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.412	0.000	1.588	2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.841	2.000	0.159	-1.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.706	2.000	0.294	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.667	2.000	4.000	2.000	4.000	0.000	3.1765	1.0588	0.3529	0.7059	0.3529	0.7059	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.667	3.000	9.000	2.000	6.000	1.000	2.5312	1.0312	0.2812	0.8438	0.1875	0.5625	0.0938
season	0.20	17	17.333	7.000	14.000	9.000	12.000	3.000	3.6346	1.3269	0.4038	0.8077	0.5192	0.6923	0.1731

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3570
predicted_ER	0.3680
predicted_ERA	3.0423
predicted_H	0.8420
predicted_HR	0.0730
predicted_IP	1.0870
predicted_SO	0.7100
predicted_WHIP	1.1028

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3570	0.2321	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.3680	0.9392	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.0423	3.0423	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.8420	1.2473	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0730	0.3974	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0870	1.0566	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.7100	0.8115	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1028	1.1028	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	2
ER	2
BB	0
SO	1
HR	1
BF	5
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	8
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.63
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	36
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	23
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_MIL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	676571
playerID	676571
playerName	PJ Poulin
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	WAS
teamID	30

Richard Lovelady (663992) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 7

All-history rows before 20260506: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.800	0.200	0.200	0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	0.000	5.000	2.000	4.000	0.000	0.0000	1.7500	0.0000	1.2500	0.5000	1.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.333	2.000	9.000	6.000	9.000	0.000	1.7419	1.4516	0.1935	0.8710	0.5806	0.8710	0.0000
season	0.20	13	14.333	4.000	15.000	9.000	13.000	1.000	2.5116	1.6744	0.2791	1.0465	0.6279	0.9070	0.0698

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5220
predicted_ER	0.1160
predicted_ERA	1.1120
predicted_H	1.0140
predicted_HR	0.0130
predicted_IP	0.9420
predicted_SO	0.8820
predicted_WHIP	1.6304

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5220	0.3393	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1160	0.0754	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.1120	1.1120	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.0140	0.6591	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0130	0.0084	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.9420	0.9623	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8820	0.9233	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.6304	1.6304	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.51
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_MIL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	663992
playerID	663992
playerName	Richard Lovelady
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	WAS
teamID	30

20260506_NYM@COL

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "confidence": 0.57325, "home_win_probability": 0.42674999999999996, "away_win_probability": 0.57325, "predicted_score_text": "NYM 4 - 3 COL", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to final winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "predicted_score_text": "NYM 5 - 4 COL", "confidence": 0.57325, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score", "final_prediction_synced": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "NYM 5 - 4 COL", "winner": "NYM"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "NYM 4 - 3 COL", "winner": "NYM"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": -1, "home_run_delta": -1, "total_run_delta": -2, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"}}

Away Team: NYM

Luis Torrens (620443) · BATTER · C · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 10

All-history rows before 20260506: 10

System season_avg: 0.1670

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1667

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	1.000	-0.200	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	3.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.156	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.167	0.333	-0.167	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.380	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.196	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.194	0.333	-0.194	-0.333
predicted_R	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.200	1.000	-0.200	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.200	1.000	-0.200	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.257	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.233	0.667	-0.233	-0.667
predicted_SO	0.600	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.600	1.000	0.400	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.156	-
predicted_BB	0.100	-
predicted_H	0.380	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.196	-
predicted_R	0.200	-
predicted_RBI	0.170	-
predicted_SLG	0.257	-
predicted_SO	0.600	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.261	0.061
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.942	-0.058
predicted_AVG	0.156	0.000
predicted_BB	0.131	0.030
predicted_H	0.428	0.048
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.196	0.000
predicted_R	0.200	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.190	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.257	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.661	0.061

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.143 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 10

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	0.1429	0.2000	0.2857	0.1429	0.0714	0.0714	0.2857
last_10	0.35	10	-	30.000	5.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	6.000	0.1667	0.1935	0.2333	0.1667	0.0667	0.0333	0.2000
season	0.20	10	-	30.000	5.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	6.000	0.1667	0.1935	0.2333	0.1667	0.0667	0.0333	0.2000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2940
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.9100
predicted_AVG	0.1560
predicted_BB	0.1470
predicted_H	0.4540
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.1964
predicted_R	0.2000
predicted_RBI	0.2000
predicted_SLG	0.2569
predicted_SO	0.6940

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.2940	0.2611	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	2.9100	2.9415	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1560	0.1560	0.1560	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1000	0.1470	0.1305	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3800	0.4540	0.4281	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1960	0.1964	0.1963	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1700	0.2000	0.1895	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2570	0.2569	0.2569	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6000	0.6940	0.6611	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	10
Season rows before report date	10
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	10
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.167

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260504_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	620443
playerID	620443
playerName	Luis Torrens
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	NYM
teamID	18

Bo Bichette (666182) · BATTER · SS · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 35

All-history rows before 20260506: 35

System season_avg: 0.2360

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2361

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	0.000	0.857	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.114	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.114	4.000	-0.114	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.235	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.236	0.000	0.014	0.250
predicted_BB	0.229	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.229	0.000	-0.229	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.930	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.971	0.000	0.029	1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.057	0.000	-0.057	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.275	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.273	0.000	-0.023	0.250
predicted_R	0.457	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.457	0.000	0.543	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.270	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.429	0.000	0.571	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.277	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.312	0.000	0.188	0.500
predicted_SO	0.857	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.857	1.000	0.143	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.114	-
predicted_AVG	0.235	-
predicted_BB	0.229	-
predicted_H	0.930	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.275	-
predicted_R	0.457	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.277	-
predicted_SO	0.857	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.068	-0.075
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.091	-0.023
predicted_AVG	0.235	0.000
predicted_BB	0.237	0.008
predicted_H	0.949	0.019
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.049	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.275	-0.000
predicted_R	0.451	-0.006
predicted_RBI	0.278	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.277	0.000
predicted_SO	0.676	-0.181

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.11), rates preserved: AVG=0.231 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, BvP AVG=0.167)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 4.114

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	0.2381	0.2727	0.2381	0.2381	0.0000	0.0476	0.0476	0.1429
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	9.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	3.000	4.000	0.2308	0.2791	0.3077	0.2308	0.0256	0.0769	0.0769	0.1026
season	0.20	35	-	144.000	34.000	5.000	2.000	15.000	16.000	8.000	30.000	0.2361	0.2727	0.3125	0.2361	0.0139	0.1042	0.0556	0.2083

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0280
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.0780
predicted_AVG	0.2351
predicted_BB	0.2420
predicted_H	0.9590
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0480
predicted_OBP	0.2749
predicted_R	0.4480
predicted_RBI	0.2820
predicted_SLG	0.2773
predicted_SO	0.5780

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.0280	0.0682	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1140	4.0780	4.0906	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2350	0.2351	0.2351	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2290	0.2420	0.2374	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9300	0.9590	0.9488	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0480	0.0487	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2750	0.2749	0.2749	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4570	0.4480	0.4512	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.2820	0.2778	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2770	0.2773	0.2772	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8570	0.5780	0.6756	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.236

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260504_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	666182
playerID	666182
playerName	Bo Bichette
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	NYM
teamID	18

Brett Baty (683146) · BATTER · 3B · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 27

All-history rows before 20260506: 27

System season_avg: 0.2150

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2151

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.148	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.148	0.000	-0.148	0.000
predicted_3B	0.037	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.037	0.000	-0.037	0.000
predicted_AB	3.444	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.444	4.000	-0.444	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.173	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.215	0.000	0.118	0.333
predicted_BB	0.259	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.259	0.000	-0.259	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.037	0.000	-0.037	0.000
predicted_H	0.560	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.741	0.000	0.259	1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.037	0.000	-0.037	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.337	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.275	0.000	0.225	0.500
predicted_R	0.407	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.407	0.000	0.593	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.407	0.000	-0.407	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.074	0.000	-0.074	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.236	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.312	0.000	0.022	0.333
predicted_SO	1.111	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.111	1.000	-0.111	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.148	-
predicted_3B	0.037	-
predicted_AB	3.444	-
predicted_AVG	0.173	-
predicted_BB	0.259	-
predicted_H	0.560	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.337	-
predicted_R	0.407	-
predicted_RBI	0.250	-
predicted_SLG	0.236	-
predicted_SO	1.111	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.091	-0.057
predicted_3B	0.018	-0.019
predicted_AB	3.200	-0.244
predicted_AVG	0.173	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.508	0.249
predicted_H	0.541	-0.019
predicted_HBP	0.139	-
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.337	0.000
predicted_R	0.363	-0.044
predicted_RBI	0.243	-0.007
predicted_SLG	0.236	0.000
predicted_SO	1.034	-0.077

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.44), rates preserved: AVG=0.157 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, BvP AVG=0.167)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	5.000	0.1429	0.3684	0.1429	0.1429	0.0000	0.0000	0.2857	0.3571
last_10	0.35	10	-	32.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	5.000	6.000	9.000	0.1875	0.3333	0.3125	0.1875	0.0312	0.1562	0.1875	0.2812
season	0.20	27	-	93.000	20.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	11.000	11.000	7.000	30.000	0.2151	0.2745	0.3118	0.2150	0.0107	0.1183	0.0753	0.3226

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0600
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.0690
predicted_AVG	0.1729
predicted_BB	0.6420
predicted_H	0.5310
predicted_HBP	0.1390
predicted_HR	0.0400
predicted_OBP	0.3373
predicted_R	0.3390
predicted_RBI	0.2400
predicted_SLG	0.2360
predicted_SO	0.9930

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1480	0.0600	0.0908	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0370	0.0070	0.0175	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4440	3.0690	3.2002	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1730	0.1729	0.1729	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2590	0.6420	0.5080	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5600	0.5310	0.5412	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1390	0.1390	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0400	0.0400	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3370	0.3373	0.3372	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4070	0.3390	0.3628	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2500	0.2400	0.2435	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2360	0.2360	0.2360	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1110	0.9930	1.0343	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.215

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260504_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	683146
playerID	683146
playerName	Brett Baty
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	NYM
teamID	18

MJ Melendez (669004) · BATTER · RF · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 12

All-history rows before 20260506: 12

System season_avg: 0.3240

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3235

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.833	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	2.833	3.000	1.167	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.319	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.324	0.000	-0.324	0.000
predicted_BB	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_H	0.870	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.917	0.000	-0.917	0.000
predicted_HR	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.403	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.395	0.000	-0.395	0.000
predicted_R	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.720	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.586	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.588	0.000	-0.588	0.000
predicted_SO	1.083	3.000	3.000	Hitting_SO	1.083	2.000	1.917	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.833	-
predicted_AVG	0.319	-
predicted_BB	0.250	-
predicted_H	0.870	-
predicted_HR	0.220	-
predicted_OBP	0.403	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.720	-
predicted_SLG	0.586	-
predicted_SO	1.083	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.138	-0.112
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.618	-0.215
predicted_AVG	0.319	0.000
predicted_BB	0.225	-0.025
predicted_H	0.823	-0.047
predicted_HBP	0.149	-
predicted_HR	0.205	-0.015
predicted_OBP	0.403	0.000
predicted_R	0.284	-0.049
predicted_RBI	0.681	-0.039
predicted_SLG	0.586	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.980	-0.103

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.83), rates preserved: AVG=0.291 HR/AB=0.072

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, BvP AVG=0.100)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	11.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	0.3636	0.4615	0.6364	0.3636	0.0909	0.3636	0.0909	0.3636
last_10	0.35	10	-	27.000	7.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	3.000	2.000	10.000	0.2593	0.3333	0.5185	0.2593	0.0741	0.1852	0.0741	0.3704
season	0.20	12	-	34.000	11.000	3.000	2.000	6.000	4.000	3.000	13.000	0.3235	0.3947	0.5882	0.3235	0.0588	0.1765	0.0882	0.3824

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0770
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.5020
predicted_AVG	0.3191
predicted_BB	0.2110
predicted_H	0.7980
predicted_HBP	0.1490
predicted_HR	0.1970
predicted_OBP	0.4033
predicted_R	0.2580
predicted_RBI	0.6600
predicted_SLG	0.5855
predicted_SO	0.9250

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.0770	0.1376	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.8330	2.5020	2.6178	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3190	0.3191	0.3191	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2500	0.2110	0.2246	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8700	0.7980	0.8232	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1490	0.1490	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2200	0.1970	0.2051	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4030	0.4033	0.4032	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.2580	0.2843	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7200	0.6600	0.6810	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5860	0.5855	0.5857	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0830	0.9250	0.9803	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.324

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260504_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	669004
playerID	669004
playerName	MJ Melendez
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	NYM
teamID	18

Marcus Semien (543760) · BATTER · 2B · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 35

All-history rows before 20260506: 35

System season_avg: 0.2080

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2080

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.571	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.571	3.000	0.429	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.136	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.208	0.000	0.042	0.250
predicted_BB	0.229	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.229	0.000	-0.229	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_H	0.420	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.743	0.000	0.257	1.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.154	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.259	0.000	-0.009	0.250
predicted_R	0.229	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.229	0.000	-0.229	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.314	0.000	-0.314	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.114	0.000	-0.114	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.149	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.272	0.000	-0.022	0.250
predicted_SO	0.800	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.800	1.000	-0.800	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.571	-
predicted_AVG	0.136	-
predicted_BB	0.229	-
predicted_H	0.420	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.154	-
predicted_R	0.229	-
predicted_RBI	0.290	-
predicted_SLG	0.149	-
predicted_SO	0.800	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.070	-0.073
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.667	0.096
predicted_AVG	0.136	0.000
predicted_BB	0.134	-0.095
predicted_H	0.477	0.057
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.007	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.154	0.000
predicted_R	0.214	-0.015
predicted_RBI	0.327	0.037
predicted_SLG	0.149	0.000
predicted_SO	0.800	0.000

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.67), rates preserved: AVG=0.130 HR/AB=0.002

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, BvP AVG=0.375)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	0.1053	0.1053	0.1053	0.1053	0.0000	0.1053	0.0000	0.2105
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	8.000	0.1351	0.1579	0.1351	0.1351	0.0000	0.0811	0.0270	0.2162
season	0.20	35	-	125.000	26.000	5.000	1.000	11.000	8.000	8.000	28.000	0.2080	0.2593	0.2720	0.2080	0.0080	0.0880	0.0640	0.2240

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0300
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7190
predicted_AVG	0.1363
predicted_BB	0.0830
predicted_H	0.5070
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0060
predicted_OBP	0.1545
predicted_R	0.2060
predicted_RBI	0.3470
predicted_SLG	0.1491
predicted_SO	0.8000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.0300	0.0695	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5710	3.7190	3.6672	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1360	0.1363	0.1362	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2290	0.0830	0.1341	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4200	0.5070	0.4766	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0060	0.0074	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1540	0.1545	0.1543	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2290	0.2060	0.2140	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2900	0.3470	0.3271	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1490	0.1491	0.1491	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8000	0.8000	0.8000	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.208

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260504_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	543760
playerID	543760
playerName	Marcus Semien
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	NYM
teamID	18

Mark Vientos (668901) · BATTER · 1B · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 24

All-history rows before 20260506: 24

System season_avg: 0.2410

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2410

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.458	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.458	4.000	0.542	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.276	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.241	0.250	0.009	0.000
predicted_BB	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.920	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.833	1.000	0.167	0.000
predicted_HR	0.270	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.167	0.000	0.833	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.344	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.289	0.250	-0.039	0.000
predicted_R	0.417	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.417	0.000	0.583	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.970	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	0.583	2.000	1.417	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.597	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SLG	0.434	0.250	0.566	0.750
predicted_SO	0.917	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.917	0.000	0.083	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.458	-
predicted_AVG	0.276	-
predicted_BB	0.250	-
predicted_H	0.920	-
predicted_HR	0.270	-
predicted_OBP	0.344	-
predicted_R	0.417	-
predicted_RBI	0.970	-
predicted_SLG	0.597	-
predicted_SO	0.917	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.241	0.074
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.487	0.029
predicted_AVG	0.276	0.000
predicted_BB	0.328	0.078
predicted_H	0.951	0.031
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.277	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.344	0.000
predicted_R	0.522	0.105
predicted_RBI	1.002	0.032
predicted_SLG	0.597	0.000
predicted_SO	0.961	0.044

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.49), rates preserved: AVG=0.273 HR/AB=0.080

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, BvP AVG=0.800)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	2.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 24

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	5.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	4.000	2.000	5.000	0.2778	0.3500	0.7222	0.2778	0.1111	0.3889	0.1111	0.2778
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	10.000	2.000	2.000	8.000	4.000	4.000	10.000	0.2941	0.3684	0.5294	0.2941	0.0588	0.2353	0.1177	0.2941
season	0.20	24	-	83.000	20.000	4.000	4.000	14.000	10.000	6.000	22.000	0.2410	0.2889	0.4337	0.2410	0.0482	0.1687	0.0723	0.2651

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2810
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.5020
predicted_AVG	0.2761
predicted_BB	0.3700
predicted_H	0.9670
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.2810
predicted_OBP	0.3442
predicted_R	0.5790
predicted_RBI	1.0190
predicted_SLG	0.5970
predicted_SO	0.9840

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.2810	0.2411	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4580	3.5020	3.4866	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2760	0.2761	0.2761	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2500	0.3700	0.3280	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9200	0.9670	0.9506	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2700	0.2810	0.2772	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3440	0.3442	0.3441	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4170	0.5790	0.5223	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.9700	1.0190	1.0018	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5970	0.5970	0.5970	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9170	0.9840	0.9606	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	24
Season rows before report date	24
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	24
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.241

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260504_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	668901
playerID	668901
playerName	Mark Vientos
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	NYM
teamID	18

Juan Soto (665742) · BATTER · LF · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 19

All-history rows before 20260506: 19

System season_avg: 0.2920

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2917

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.211	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.211	0.000	-0.211	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.820	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.789	3.000	1.211	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.256	0.600	0.600	Hitting_AVG	0.292	0.000	0.308	0.600
predicted_BB	0.684	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.684	1.000	-0.684	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_H	0.980	3.000	3.000	Hitting_H	1.105	0.000	1.895	3.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.158	0.000	-0.158	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.382	0.600	0.600	Hitting_OBP	0.400	0.250	0.200	0.350
predicted_R	0.474	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.474	1.000	0.526	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.200	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.421	0.000	0.579	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.600	0.600	Hitting_SLG	0.472	0.000	0.128	0.600
predicted_SO	0.737	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.737	1.000	-0.737	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.211	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.820	-
predicted_AVG	0.256	-
predicted_BB	0.684	-
predicted_H	0.980	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.382	-
predicted_R	0.474	-
predicted_RBI	0.200	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.737	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.205	-0.006
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.702	-0.118
predicted_AVG	0.256	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.722	0.038
predicted_H	0.948	-0.032
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.104	-0.006
predicted_OBP	0.382	0.000
predicted_R	0.600	0.126
predicted_RBI	0.192	-0.009
predicted_SLG	0.395	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.888	0.151

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.82), rates preserved: AVG=0.248 HR/AB=0.027

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=13.0, BvP AVG=0.154)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 3.820

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	4.000	6.000	0.2222	0.3636	0.2778	0.2222	0.0000	0.0000	0.2222	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	10.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	6.000	7.000	8.000	0.2778	0.3953	0.5000	0.2778	0.0556	0.0833	0.1944	0.2222
season	0.20	19	-	72.000	21.000	4.000	3.000	8.000	9.000	13.000	14.000	0.2917	0.4000	0.4722	0.2917	0.0417	0.1111	0.1806	0.1944

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2020
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.6380
predicted_AVG	0.2556
predicted_BB	0.7430
predicted_H	0.9300
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1010
predicted_OBP	0.3820
predicted_R	0.6670
predicted_RBI	0.1870
predicted_SLG	0.3945
predicted_SO	0.9700

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2110	0.2020	0.2051	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8200	3.6380	3.7017	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2560	0.2556	0.2557	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6840	0.7430	0.7224	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9800	0.9300	0.9475	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1010	0.1041	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3820	0.3820	0.3820	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4740	0.6670	0.5995	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2000	0.1870	0.1915	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3945	0.3947	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7370	0.9700	0.8884	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	3
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.292

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260504_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	665742
playerID	665742
playerName	Juan Soto
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	NYM
teamID	18

Francisco Alvarez (682626) · BATTER · DH · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 27

All-history rows before 20260506: 27

System season_avg: 0.2170

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2174

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.111	1.000	-0.111	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.407	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.407	3.000	-0.407	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.157	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.217	0.333	-0.217	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.333	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.440	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.741	1.000	-0.741	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.148	0.000	-0.148	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.180	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.298	0.333	-0.048	-0.083
predicted_R	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.296	0.000	-0.296	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.231	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.380	0.667	-0.380	-0.667
predicted_SO	0.852	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.852	1.000	-0.852	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.407	-
predicted_AVG	0.157	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.440	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.180	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.190	-
predicted_SLG	0.231	-
predicted_SO	0.852	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.157	0.045
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.670	0.263
predicted_AVG	0.157	0.000
predicted_BB	0.188	-0.145
predicted_H	0.543	0.103
predicted_HBP	0.017	-
predicted_HR	0.028	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.180	-0.000
predicted_R	0.322	-0.011
predicted_RBI	0.234	0.044
predicted_SLG	0.231	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.030	0.178

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.67), rates preserved: AVG=0.148 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, BvP AVG=0.143)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	0.000	6.000	0.1500	0.1500	0.2000	0.1500	0.0000	0.0500	0.0000	0.3000
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	12.000	0.1316	0.1500	0.1842	0.1316	0.0000	0.0790	0.0263	0.3158
season	0.20	27	-	92.000	20.000	3.000	4.000	8.000	9.000	9.000	23.000	0.2174	0.2981	0.3804	0.2174	0.0435	0.0870	0.0978	0.2500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1810
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.8110
predicted_AVG	0.1570
predicted_BB	0.1100
predicted_H	0.5990
predicted_HBP	0.0170
predicted_HR	0.0330
predicted_OBP	0.1796
predicted_R	0.3160
predicted_RBI	0.2570
predicted_SLG	0.2306
predicted_SO	1.1260

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1110	0.1810	0.1565	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4070	3.8110	3.6696	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1570	0.1570	0.1570	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.1100	0.1880	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4400	0.5990	0.5433	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0170	0.0170	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0330	0.0284	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1800	0.1796	0.1797	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.3160	0.3220	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1900	0.2570	0.2335	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2310	0.2306	0.2307	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8520	1.1260	1.0301	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.217

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260504_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	682626
playerID	682626
playerName	Francisco Alvarez
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	NYM
teamID	18

Carson Benge (701807) · BATTER · CF · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 28

All-history rows before 20260506: 28

System season_avg: 0.2000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.107	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.107	0.000	0.893	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.393	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.393	2.000	0.607	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.227	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.200	0.500	0.050	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.357	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.357	1.000	-0.357	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.650	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.679	1.000	0.321	0.000
predicted_HR	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.107	1.000	-0.107	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.320	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.276	0.667	-0.026	-0.417
predicted_R	0.429	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.429	1.000	-0.429	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.286	1.000	-0.286	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.214	0.000	-0.214	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.447	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.326	2.000	0.174	-1.500
predicted_SO	0.786	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.786	0.000	1.214	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.107	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.393	-
predicted_AVG	0.227	-
predicted_BB	0.357	-
predicted_H	0.650	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.320	-
predicted_R	0.429	-
predicted_RBI	0.350	-
predicted_SLG	0.447	-
predicted_SO	0.786	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.156	0.049
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.338	-0.055
predicted_AVG	0.227	0.000
predicted_BB	0.418	0.061
predicted_H	0.716	0.066
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.174	0.014
predicted_OBP	0.320	0.000
predicted_R	0.541	0.112
predicted_RBI	0.390	0.040
predicted_SLG	0.447	0.000
predicted_SO	0.728	-0.058

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.39), rates preserved: AVG=0.211 HR/AB=0.051

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	0.1875	0.3158	0.4375	0.1875	0.0625	0.1250	0.1875	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	10.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	7.000	3.000	5.000	0.2941	0.3514	0.5294	0.2941	0.0588	0.1471	0.0882	0.1471
season	0.20	28	-	95.000	19.000	3.000	3.000	8.000	12.000	10.000	22.000	0.2000	0.2762	0.3263	0.2000	0.0316	0.0842	0.1053	0.2316

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1820
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.3090
predicted_AVG	0.2273
predicted_BB	0.4510
predicted_H	0.7520
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1820
predicted_OBP	0.3203
predicted_R	0.6010
predicted_RBI	0.4120
predicted_SLG	0.4474
predicted_SO	0.6960

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1070	0.1820	0.1557	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3930	3.3090	3.3384	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2270	0.2273	0.2272	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3570	0.4510	0.4181	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6500	0.7520	0.7163	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.1820	0.1743	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3200	0.3203	0.3202	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4290	0.6010	0.5408	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3500	0.4120	0.3903	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4470	0.4474	0.4473	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7860	0.6960	0.7275	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.2

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260504_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	701807
playerID	701807
playerName	Carson Benge
pos	OF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	NYM
teamID	18

Freddy Peralta (642547) · PITCHER · Starter · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 7

All-history rows before 20260506: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	2.143	1.000	-1.143	0.000
predicted_IP	5.000	5.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.243	6.000	-0.243	-1.000
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	-	Pitching_SO	6.000	6.000	-2.000	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 5.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	28.000	10.000	21.000	14.000	28.000	2.000	3.2143	1.2500	0.3571	0.7500	0.5000	1.0000	0.0714
last_10	0.35	7	38.333	15.000	30.000	16.000	42.000	4.000	3.5217	1.2000	0.3913	0.7826	0.4174	1.0957	0.1043
season	0.20	7	38.333	15.000	30.000	16.000	42.000	4.000	3.5217	1.2000	0.3913	0.7826	0.4174	1.0957	0.1043

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.5150
predicted_ER	2.0800
predicted_ERA	3.3834
predicted_H	4.2480
predicted_HR	0.4950
predicted_IP	5.5320
predicted_SO	5.8230
predicted_WHIP	1.2225

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	2.5150	1.9848	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	2.0800	1.7020	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3834	3.3834	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	4.2480	4.1612	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.4950	0.3217	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.0000	5.5320	5.3458	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	4.0000	5.8230	5.1850	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2225	1.2225	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.0
H	4
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	4
HR	0
BF	20
Pitches	74

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	25
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	3.52
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	6
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	90
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	6
Pitching_Strikes	56
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260430_WAS@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	642547
playerID	642547
playerName	Freddy Peralta
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	NYM
teamID	18

Brooks Raley (548384) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 14

All-history rows before 20260506: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.143	0.000	1.857	2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.771	1.000	0.229	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.143	2.000	-0.143	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.667	0.000	2.000	1.000	7.000	0.000	0.0000	0.6429	0.0000	0.4286	0.2143	1.5000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	2.000	6.000	4.000	11.000	1.000	2.0000	1.1111	0.2222	0.6667	0.4444	1.2222	0.1111
season	0.20	14	12.667	2.000	7.000	4.000	16.000	1.000	1.4211	0.8684	0.1579	0.5526	0.3158	1.2632	0.0790

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2890
predicted_ER	0.1000
predicted_ERA	0.9842
predicted_H	0.4920
predicted_HR	0.0500
predicted_IP	0.9160
predicted_SO	1.2410
predicted_WHIP	0.8519

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.2890	0.5378	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.1000	0.7650	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.9842	0.9842	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.4920	0.6698	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0500	0.3825	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.9160	0.9454	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.2410	1.1566	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.8519	0.8519	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	2
ER	2
BB	1
SO	1
HR	1
BF	5
Pitches	24

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.42
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_NYM@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	548384
playerID	548384
playerName	Brooks Raley
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYM
teamID	18

Devin Williams (642207) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 13

All-history rows before 20260506: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.615	0.000	-0.615	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.792	1.000	0.208	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.385	1.000	0.615	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.667	1.000	4.000	0.000	7.000	0.000	1.9286	0.8571	0.2143	0.8571	0.0000	1.5000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	6.000	13.000	2.000	15.000	1.000	6.0000	1.6667	0.6667	1.4444	0.2222	1.6667	0.1111
season	0.20	12	11.000	6.000	14.000	3.000	18.000	1.000	4.9091	1.5455	0.5454	1.2727	0.2727	1.6364	0.0909

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1220
predicted_ER	0.4030
predicted_ERA	3.9497
predicted_H	1.0520
predicted_HR	0.0520
predicted_IP	0.9180
predicted_SO	1.4560
predicted_WHIP	1.2781

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1220	0.0793	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4030	0.2620	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.9497	3.9497	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.0520	0.6838	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0520	0.0338	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.9180	0.9467	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.4560	1.6464	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2781	1.2781	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	6.55
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	8
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	642207
playerID	642207
playerName	Devin Williams
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYM
teamID	18

Huascar Brazobán (623211) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 15

All-history rows before 20260506: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.847	1.000	0.153	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.867	0.000	1.133	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	3.0000	0.6667	0.3333	0.5000	0.1667	0.5000	0.1667
last_10	0.35	10	11.333	2.000	9.000	3.000	10.000	1.000	1.5882	1.0588	0.1765	0.7941	0.2647	0.8823	0.0882
season	0.20	15	16.667	2.000	11.000	3.000	13.000	1.000	1.0800	0.8400	0.1200	0.6600	0.1800	0.7800	0.0600

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2360
predicted_ER	0.2730
predicted_ERA	2.1219
predicted_H	0.7360
predicted_HR	0.1370
predicted_IP	1.1590
predicted_SO	0.7990
predicted_WHIP	0.8386

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2360	0.1534	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2730	0.1775	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.1219	2.1219	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7360	0.4784	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1370	0.0891	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.1590	1.1034	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.7990	1.2193	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.8386	0.8386	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.08
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	6
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	623211
playerID	623211
playerName	Huascar Brazobán
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	NYM
teamID	18

Luke Weaver (596133) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 14

All-history rows before 20260506: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.571	0.000	-0.571	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.907	1.100	0.093	-0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.929	3.000	0.071	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.667	2.000	5.000	1.000	9.000	1.000	3.1765	1.0588	0.3529	0.8823	0.1765	1.5882	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	10.333	8.000	10.000	2.000	11.000	2.000	6.9677	1.1613	0.7742	0.9677	0.1935	1.0645	0.1935
season	0.20	14	14.333	8.000	11.000	4.000	13.000	2.000	5.0233	1.0465	0.5581	0.7674	0.2791	0.9070	0.1395

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2180
predicted_ER	0.5830
predicted_ERA	4.8728
predicted_H	0.9570
predicted_HR	0.1880
predicted_IP	1.0760
predicted_SO	1.3660
predicted_WHIP	1.0922

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2180	0.1417	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5830	0.3790	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.8728	4.8728	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9570	0.6220	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1880	0.1222	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0760	1.0494	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.3660	1.2379	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0922	1.0922	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.02
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_NYM@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	596133
playerID	596133
playerName	Luke Weaver
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYM
teamID	18

Home Team: COL

Mickey Moniak (666160) · BATTER · DH · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 25

All-history rows before 20260506: 25

System season_avg: 0.3440

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3438

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.280	1.000	-0.280	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.040	1.000	1.000	Hitting_3B	0.040	1.000	0.960	0.000
predicted_AB	3.840	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.840	4.000	0.160	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.385	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.344	0.500	0.156	0.000
predicted_BB	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.280	0.000	-0.280	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.420	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	1.320	2.000	0.680	0.000
predicted_HR	0.480	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.440	0.000	0.560	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.452	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.390	0.500	0.110	0.000
predicted_R	0.760	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.760	0.000	0.240	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.800	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	0.800	0.000	1.200	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.040	0.000	-0.040	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.931	1.750	1.750	Hitting_SLG	0.781	1.250	0.969	0.500
predicted_SO	1.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.040	1.000	-1.040	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.280	-
predicted_3B	0.040	-
predicted_AB	3.840	-
predicted_AVG	0.385	-
predicted_BB	0.280	-
predicted_H	1.420	-
predicted_HR	0.480	-
predicted_OBP	0.452	-
predicted_R	0.760	-
predicted_RBI	0.800	-
predicted_SLG	0.931	-
predicted_SO	1.040	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.342	0.062
predicted_3B	0.099	0.059
predicted_AB	4.005	0.165
predicted_AVG	0.385	0.000
predicted_BB	0.342	0.062
predicted_H	1.522	0.102
predicted_HBP	0.131	-
predicted_HR	0.514	0.034
predicted_OBP	0.452	-0.000
predicted_R	0.861	0.101
predicted_RBI	0.858	0.058
predicted_SLG	0.931	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.100	0.060

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.380 HR/AB=0.128

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	2.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, BvP AVG=0.143)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	-1.000
HR	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	1.000	1.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 25

Reference playing time: 3.840

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	8.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	5.000	2.000	6.000	0.3810	0.4583	1.0000	0.3810	0.1429	0.2381	0.0952	0.2857
last_10	0.35	10	-	41.000	17.000	4.000	1.000	5.000	8.000	9.000	4.000	11.000	0.4146	0.4783	0.9268	0.4146	0.1220	0.1951	0.0976	0.2683
season	0.20	25	-	96.000	33.000	7.000	1.000	11.000	20.000	19.000	7.000	26.000	0.3438	0.3905	0.7812	0.3438	0.1146	0.2083	0.0729	0.2708

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3750
predicted_3B	0.1310
predicted_AB	4.0930
predicted_AVG	0.3853
predicted_BB	0.3750
predicted_H	1.5770
predicted_HBP	0.1310
predicted_HR	0.5320
predicted_OBP	0.4517
predicted_R	0.9150
predicted_RBI	0.8890
predicted_SLG	0.9306
predicted_SO	1.1320

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2800	0.3750	0.3417	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0400	0.1310	0.0992	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8400	4.0930	4.0045	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3850	0.3853	0.3852	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2800	0.3750	0.3417	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.4200	1.5770	1.5220	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1310	0.1310	form_only
predicted_HR	0.4800	0.5320	0.5138	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4520	0.4517	0.4518	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7600	0.9150	0.8607	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.8000	0.8890	0.8579	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.9310	0.9306	0.9307	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0400	1.1320	1.0998	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	25
Season rows before report date	25
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	25
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	1
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.344

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	1
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF-CF
gameID	20260504_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	666160
playerID	666160
playerName	Mickey Moniak
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	COL
teamID	9

Hunter Goodman (696100) · BATTER · C · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 31

All-history rows before 20260506: 31

System season_avg: 0.2280

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2276

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.226	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.226	0.000	-0.226	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.968	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.968	4.000	0.032	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.142	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.228	0.000	0.022	0.250
predicted_BB	0.323	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.323	0.000	-0.323	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.032	0.000	-0.032	0.000
predicted_H	0.540	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.903	0.000	0.097	1.000
predicted_HR	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.290	0.000	-0.290	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.200	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.301	0.000	-0.051	0.250
predicted_R	0.742	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.742	0.000	0.258	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.452	0.000	0.548	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.032	0.000	-0.032	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.344	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.504	0.000	-0.254	0.250
predicted_SO	1.710	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.710	1.000	-0.710	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.226	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.968	-
predicted_AVG	0.142	-
predicted_BB	0.323	-
predicted_H	0.540	-
predicted_HR	0.180	-
predicted_OBP	0.200	-
predicted_R	0.742	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.344	-
predicted_SO	1.710	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.235	0.009
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.089	0.121
predicted_AVG	0.142	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.305	-0.018
predicted_H	0.573	0.032
predicted_HBP	0.020	-
predicted_HR	0.192	0.012
predicted_OBP	0.200	0.000
predicted_R	0.621	-0.121
predicted_RBI	0.413	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.344	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.815	0.105

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.09), rates preserved: AVG=0.140 HR/AB=0.047

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.968

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	10.000	0.0476	0.0909	0.0952	0.0476	0.0000	0.0476	0.0476	0.4762
last_10	0.35	10	-	42.000	9.000	3.000	4.000	7.000	9.000	4.000	18.000	0.2143	0.2826	0.5714	0.2143	0.0952	0.1667	0.0952	0.4286
season	0.20	31	-	123.000	28.000	7.000	9.000	14.000	23.000	10.000	53.000	0.2276	0.3015	0.5041	0.2276	0.0732	0.1138	0.0813	0.4309

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2400
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.1540
predicted_AVG	0.1419
predicted_BB	0.2950
predicted_H	0.5900
predicted_HBP	0.0200
predicted_HR	0.1990
predicted_OBP	0.2001
predicted_R	0.5560
predicted_RBI	0.4260
predicted_SLG	0.3437
predicted_SO	1.8710

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2260	0.2400	0.2351	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9680	4.1540	4.0889	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1420	0.1419	0.1419	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3230	0.2950	0.3048	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5400	0.5900	0.5725	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0200	0.0200	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1800	0.1990	0.1924	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2000	0.2001	0.2001	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7420	0.5560	0.6211	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.4260	0.4134	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3440	0.3437	0.3438	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.7100	1.8710	1.8146	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.228

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260504_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	696100
playerID	696100
playerName	Hunter Goodman
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	COL
teamID	9

Edouard Julien (666397) · BATTER · 2B · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 24

All-history rows before 20260506: 24

System season_avg: 0.2860

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2857

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_3B	0.042	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.042	0.000	-0.042	0.000
predicted_AB	3.510	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	4.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.306	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_BB	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.500	1.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_H	1.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.000	0.000	-1.000	0.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.407	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.375	0.200	-0.125	0.050
predicted_R	0.625	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.625	1.000	-0.625	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.470	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.125	1.000	-0.125	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.483	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.417	0.000	-0.417	0.000
predicted_SO	1.167	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.167	4.000	0.833	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-
predicted_3B	0.042	-
predicted_AB	3.510	-
predicted_AVG	0.306	-
predicted_BB	0.500	-
predicted_H	1.070	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.407	-
predicted_R	0.625	-
predicted_RBI	0.470	-
predicted_SLG	0.483	-
predicted_SO	1.167	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.163	0.038
predicted_3B	0.043	0.001
predicted_AB	3.764	0.254
predicted_AVG	0.306	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.609	0.109
predicted_H	1.150	0.080
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.137	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.407	0.000
predicted_R	0.873	0.248
predicted_RBI	0.506	0.036
predicted_SLG	0.483	0.000
predicted_SO	1.446	0.279

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.76), rates preserved: AVG=0.306 HR/AB=0.036

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 24

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	4.000	9.000	0.3000	0.4167	0.5000	0.3000	0.0500	0.1000	0.2000	0.4500
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	13.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	10.000	6.000	16.000	0.3250	0.4130	0.5000	0.3250	0.0250	0.1750	0.1500	0.4000
season	0.20	24	-	84.000	24.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	12.000	15.000	12.000	28.000	0.2857	0.3750	0.4167	0.2857	0.0238	0.1429	0.1429	0.3333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1840
predicted_3B	0.0430
predicted_AB	3.9000
predicted_AVG	0.3059
predicted_BB	0.6670
predicted_H	1.1930
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1400
predicted_OBP	0.4071
predicted_R	1.0070
predicted_RBI	0.5260
predicted_SLG	0.4833
predicted_SO	1.5960

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1250	0.1840	0.1633	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0420	0.0430	0.0427	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5100	3.9000	3.7635	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3060	0.3059	0.3059	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5000	0.6670	0.6086	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0700	1.1930	1.1500	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1400	0.1365	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4070	0.4071	0.4071	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6250	1.0070	0.8733	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4700	0.5260	0.5064	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4830	0.4833	0.4832	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1670	1.5960	1.4459	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	24
Season rows before report date	24
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	24
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.286

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	4
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260503_ATL@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	666397
playerID	666397
playerName	Edouard Julien
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	COL
teamID	9

Kyle Karros (691720) · BATTER · 3B · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 31

All-history rows before 20260506: 31

System season_avg: 0.2170

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2174

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.097	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.097	0.000	-0.097	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.968	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.968	3.000	0.032	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.285	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.217	0.333	-0.217	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.581	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.581	0.000	0.419	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.710	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.645	1.000	-0.645	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.032	0.000	-0.032	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.347	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.339	0.333	-0.089	-0.083
predicted_R	0.452	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.452	0.000	-0.452	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.210	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.161	1.000	-0.161	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.065	0.000	-0.065	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.308	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.283	0.333	-0.283	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.871	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.871	2.000	0.129	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.097	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.968	-
predicted_AVG	0.285	-
predicted_BB	0.581	-
predicted_H	0.710	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.347	-
predicted_R	0.452	-
predicted_RBI	0.210	-
predicted_SLG	0.308	-
predicted_SO	0.871	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.070	-0.027
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.193	0.225
predicted_AVG	0.285	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.456	-0.125
predicted_H	0.861	0.151
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.008	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.347	0.000
predicted_R	0.506	0.054
predicted_RBI	0.256	0.046
predicted_SLG	0.308	0.000
predicted_SO	1.232	0.361

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.19), rates preserved: AVG=0.270 HR/AB=0.003

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	9.000	0.3529	0.3684	0.3529	0.3529	0.0000	0.1177	0.0588	0.5294
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	8.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	5.000	13.000	0.2353	0.3250	0.2647	0.2353	0.0000	0.0588	0.1471	0.3824
season	0.20	31	-	92.000	20.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	14.000	18.000	27.000	0.2174	0.3393	0.2826	0.2174	0.0109	0.0544	0.1956	0.2935

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0560
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.3140
predicted_AVG	0.2846
predicted_BB	0.3880
predicted_H	0.9430
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0070
predicted_OBP	0.3474
predicted_R	0.5350
predicted_RBI	0.2800
predicted_SLG	0.3080
predicted_SO	1.4270

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0970	0.0560	0.0703	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.9680	3.3140	3.1929	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2850	0.2846	0.2847	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5810	0.3880	0.4556	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7100	0.9430	0.8614	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0070	0.0080	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3470	0.3474	0.3473	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4520	0.5350	0.5060	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2100	0.2800	0.2555	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3080	0.3080	0.3080	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8710	1.4270	1.2324	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.217

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260504_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	691720
playerID	691720
playerName	Kyle Karros
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	COL
teamID	9

TJ Rumfield (681198) · BATTER · 1B · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 33

All-history rows before 20260506: 33

System season_avg: 0.2560

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2560

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_2B	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.182	0.000	-0.182
predicted_3B	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.030	0.000	-0.030
predicted_AB	3.788	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.788	4.000	0.212
predicted_AVG	0.246	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.256	0.000	-0.256
predicted_BB	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	-0.333
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.900	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.970	0.000	-0.970
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.091	0.000	-0.091
predicted_OBP	0.282	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.319	0.000	-0.319
predicted_R	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	0.000	-0.333
predicted_RBI	0.470	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.545	0.000	-0.545
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.381	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.392	0.000	-0.392
predicted_SO	0.697	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.697	0.000	-0.697

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	-
predicted_3B	0.030	-
predicted_AB	3.788	-
predicted_AVG	0.246	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.900	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.282	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.470	-
predicted_SLG	0.381	-
predicted_SO	0.697	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.135	-0.047
predicted_3B	0.014	-0.016
predicted_AB	3.957	0.169
predicted_AVG	0.246	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.232	-0.101
predicted_H	0.962	0.062
predicted_HBP	0.042	-
predicted_HR	0.138	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.282	0.000
predicted_R	0.367	0.034
predicted_RBI	0.501	0.031
predicted_SLG	0.381	0.000
predicted_SO	0.728	0.031

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.96), rates preserved: AVG=0.243 HR/AB=0.035

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	0.2381	0.2381	0.3810	0.2381	0.0476	0.1429	0.0000	0.1905
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	10.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	3.000	7.000	0.2500	0.3182	0.3750	0.2500	0.0250	0.1000	0.0750	0.1750
season	0.20	33	-	125.000	32.000	6.000	1.000	3.000	18.000	11.000	11.000	23.000	0.2560	0.3188	0.3920	0.2560	0.0240	0.1440	0.0880	0.1840

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1100
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	4.0480
predicted_AVG	0.2458
predicted_BB	0.1770
predicted_H	0.9950
predicted_HBP	0.0420
predicted_HR	0.1420
predicted_OBP	0.2823
predicted_R	0.3860
predicted_RBI	0.5180
predicted_SLG	0.3811
predicted_SO	0.7440

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1820	0.1100	0.1352	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0300	0.0060	0.0144	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7880	4.0480	3.9570	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2460	0.2458	0.2459	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.1770	0.2316	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9000	0.9950	0.9618	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0420	0.0420	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1420	0.1378	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2820	0.2823	0.2822	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.3860	0.3674	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4700	0.5180	0.5012	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3810	0.3811	0.3811	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6970	0.7440	0.7276	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.256

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260504_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	681198
playerID	681198
playerName	TJ Rumfield
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	COL
teamID	9

Jake McCarthy (664983) · BATTER · CF · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 21

All-history rows before 20260506: 21

System season_avg: 0.2620

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2623

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.238	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.238	0.000	-0.238	0.000
predicted_3B	0.095	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.095	1.000	-0.095	-1.000
predicted_AB	2.905	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.905	3.000	0.095	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.334	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.262	0.333	0.071	0.000
predicted_BB	0.238	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.238	1.000	-0.238	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.095	0.000	-0.095	0.000
predicted_H	0.790	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.762	1.000	0.238	0.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.405	0.333	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.328	0.500	0.005	-0.167
predicted_R	0.238	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.238	1.000	-0.238	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.238	0.000	-0.238	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.520	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.410	1.000	-0.077	-0.667
predicted_SO	0.571	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.571	0.000	0.429	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.238	-
predicted_3B	0.095	-
predicted_AB	2.905	-
predicted_AVG	0.334	-
predicted_BB	0.238	-
predicted_H	0.790	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.405	-
predicted_R	0.238	-
predicted_RBI	0.290	-
predicted_SLG	0.520	-
predicted_SO	0.571	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.241	0.003
predicted_3B	0.128	0.033
predicted_AB	2.873	-0.032
predicted_AVG	0.334	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.300	0.062
predicted_H	0.897	0.107
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.405	-0.000
predicted_R	0.345	0.107
predicted_RBI	0.325	0.035
predicted_SLG	0.520	0.000
predicted_SO	0.482	-0.089

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.90), rates preserved: AVG=0.309 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, BvP AVG=0.167)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	0.3571	0.4375	0.5714	0.3571	0.1429	0.1429	0.1429
last_10	0.35	10	-	29.000	10.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	3.000	4.000	0.3448	0.4062	0.5172	0.3448	0.1035	0.1035	0.1379
season	0.20	21	-	61.000	16.000	5.000	2.000	6.000	5.000	5.000	12.000	0.2623	0.3284	0.4098	0.2623	0.0984	0.0820	0.1967

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2420
predicted_3B	0.1450
predicted_AB	2.8560
predicted_AVG	0.3338
predicted_BB	0.3340
predicted_H	0.9540
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.4047
predicted_R	0.4030
predicted_RBI	0.3430
predicted_SLG	0.5201
predicted_SO	0.4340

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2380	0.2420	0.2406	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0950	0.1450	0.1275	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.9050	2.8560	2.8731	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3340	0.3338	0.3339	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2380	0.3340	0.3004	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7900	0.9540	0.8966	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4050	0.4047	0.4048	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2380	0.4030	0.3453	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2900	0.3430	0.3245	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5200	0.5201	0.5201	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5710	0.4340	0.4819	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.262

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	1
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260503_ATL@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	664983
playerID	664983
playerName	Jake McCarthy
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	COL
teamID	9

Ezequiel Tovar (678662) · BATTER · SS · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 33

All-history rows before 20260506: 33

System season_avg: 0.1950

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1951

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.242	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.242	0.000	-0.242	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.727	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.727	3.000	-0.727	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.169	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.195	0.000	-0.195	0.000
predicted_BB	0.212	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.212	0.000	-0.212	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.520	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.727	0.000	-0.727	0.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.275	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.248	0.000	-0.248	0.000
predicted_R	0.273	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.273	0.000	-0.273	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.260	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.273	0.000	-0.273	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.061	0.000	-0.061	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.187	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.285	0.000	-0.285	0.000
predicted_SO	1.091	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.091	1.000	0.909	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.242	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.727	-
predicted_AVG	0.169	-
predicted_BB	0.212	-
predicted_H	0.520	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.275	-
predicted_R	0.273	-
predicted_RBI	0.260	-
predicted_SLG	0.187	-
predicted_SO	1.091	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.109	-0.133
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.219	-0.508
predicted_AVG	0.169	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.395	0.183
predicted_H	0.505	-0.015
predicted_HBP	0.010	-
predicted_HR	0.007	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.275	0.000
predicted_R	0.144	-0.129
predicted_RBI	0.254	-0.007
predicted_SLG	0.187	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.940	-0.151

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.73), rates preserved: AVG=0.135 HR/AB=0.002

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=12.0, BvP AVG=0.417)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	12.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	0.1667	0.3125	0.1667	0.1667	0.0000	0.0833	0.2500	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	32.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	11.000	0.1562	0.2432	0.1562	0.1562	0.0000	0.0938	0.1250	0.3438
season	0.20	33	-	123.000	24.000	8.000	1.000	9.000	9.000	7.000	36.000	0.1951	0.2481	0.2846	0.1951	0.0081	0.0732	0.0569	0.2927

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0380
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.9450
predicted_AVG	0.1687
predicted_BB	0.4940
predicted_H	0.4970
predicted_HBP	0.0100
predicted_HR	0.0050
predicted_OBP	0.2754
predicted_R	0.0750
predicted_RBI	0.2500
predicted_SLG	0.1866
predicted_SO	0.8580

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2420	0.0380	0.1094	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7270	2.9450	3.2187	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1690	0.1687	0.1688	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2120	0.4940	0.3953	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5200	0.4970	0.5050	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0100	0.0100	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0050	0.0067	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2750	0.2754	0.2753	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2730	0.0750	0.1443	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2600	0.2500	0.2535	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1870	0.1866	0.1867	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0910	0.8580	0.9395	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.195

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260504_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	678662
playerID	678662
playerName	Ezequiel Tovar
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	COL
teamID	9

Troy Johnston (687859) · BATTER · LF · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 29

All-history rows before 20260506: 29

System season_avg: 0.3170

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3173

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.276	0.000	-0.276	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.714	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.586	3.000	0.414	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.345	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.317	0.667	-0.317	-0.667
predicted_BB	0.321	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.345	2.000	-0.345	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.034	0.000	-0.034	0.000
predicted_H	1.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.138	2.000	-1.138	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.069	0.000	-0.069	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.427	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.383	0.800	-0.383	-0.800
predicted_R	0.357	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.345	1.000	-0.345	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.517	0.000	-0.517	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.034	0.000	-0.034	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.444	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.452	0.667	-0.452	-0.667
predicted_SO	0.821	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.793	1.000	0.207	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.286	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.714	-
predicted_AVG	0.345	-
predicted_BB	0.321	-
predicted_H	1.080	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.427	-
predicted_R	0.357	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.444	-
predicted_SO	0.821	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.302	0.016
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.619	-0.095
predicted_AVG	0.345	0.000
predicted_BB	0.447	0.126
predicted_H	1.179	0.099
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.013	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.427	-0.000
predicted_R	0.358	0.001
predicted_RBI	0.293	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.444	0.000
predicted_SO	0.833	0.012

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.317 HR/AB=0.003

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	0.3529	0.4500	0.4706	0.3529	0.0000	0.0000	0.1765	0.2353
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	13.000	2.000	0.000	6.000	3.000	5.000	9.000	0.3514	0.4286	0.4054	0.3513	0.0000	0.1622	0.1351	0.2432
season	0.20	28	-	104.000	33.000	8.000	2.000	15.000	10.000	9.000	23.000	0.3173	0.3717	0.4519	0.3173	0.0192	0.1442	0.0865	0.2212

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3110
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.5680
predicted_AVG	0.3453
predicted_BB	0.5140
predicted_H	1.2320
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0140
predicted_OBP	0.4269
predicted_R	0.3590
predicted_RBI	0.3050
predicted_SLG	0.4440
predicted_SO	0.8390

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2860	0.3110	0.3022	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7140	3.5680	3.6191	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3450	0.3453	0.3452	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3210	0.5140	0.4465	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0800	1.2320	1.1788	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0140	0.0126	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4270	0.4269	0.4269	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3570	0.3590	0.3583	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.3050	0.2928	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4440	0.4440	0.4440	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8210	0.8390	0.8327	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.317

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260503_ATL@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	687859
playerID	687859
playerName	Troy Johnston
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	COL
teamID	9

Tyler Freeman (671289) · BATTER · RF · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 14

All-history rows before 20260506: 14

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.714	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.714	3.000	0.286	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.257	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.000	0.000	0.250
predicted_BB	0.214	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.214	0.000	-0.214	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_H	0.900	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.929	0.000	0.071	1.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.385	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.350	0.250	-0.100	0.000
predicted_R	0.286	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.286	0.000	0.714	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.590	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.214	1.000	-0.214	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.381	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.308	0.000	-0.058	0.250
predicted_SO	0.571	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.571	2.000	1.429	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.714	-
predicted_AVG	0.257	-
predicted_BB	0.214	-
predicted_H	0.900	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.385	-
predicted_R	0.286	-
predicted_RBI	0.590	-
predicted_SLG	0.381	-
predicted_SO	0.571	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.561	-0.153
predicted_AVG	0.257	0.000
predicted_BB	0.229	0.015
predicted_H	0.896	-0.004
predicted_HBP	0.492	-
predicted_HR	0.143	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.385	0.000
predicted_R	0.390	0.104
predicted_RBI	0.586	-0.004
predicted_SLG	0.381	0.000
predicted_SO	0.503	-0.068

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.241 HR/AB=0.038

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, BvP AVG=0.400)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	4.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	0.2500	0.4000	0.4375	0.2500	0.0625	0.1875	0.0625	0.1250
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	10.000	1.000	6.000	3.000	3.000	5.000	0.2703	0.3864	0.3514	0.2703	0.0270	0.1622	0.0811	0.1351
season	0.20	14	-	52.000	13.000	1.000	7.000	4.000	3.000	8.000	0.2500	0.3500	0.3077	0.2500	0.0192	0.1346	0.0577	0.1538

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.4780
predicted_AVG	0.2571
predicted_BB	0.2370
predicted_H	0.8940
predicted_HBP	0.4920
predicted_HR	0.1440
predicted_OBP	0.3852
predicted_R	0.4460
predicted_RBI	0.5840
predicted_SLG	0.3814
predicted_SO	0.4670

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7140	3.4780	3.5606	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2570	0.2571	0.2571	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2140	0.2370	0.2289	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9000	0.8940	0.8961	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.4920	0.4920	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1440	0.1426	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3850	0.3852	0.3851	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2860	0.4460	0.3900	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5900	0.5840	0.5861	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3810	0.3814	0.3813	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5710	0.4670	0.5034	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260504_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	671289
playerID	671289
playerName	Tyler Freeman
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	COL
teamID	9

Michael Lorenzen (547179) · PITCHER · Starter · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 8

All-history rows before 20260506: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	2.875	4.000	-0.875	-2.000
predicted_IP	5.000	5.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.075	5.100	0.925	-0.100
predicted_SO	6.000	6.000	-	Pitching_SO	3.000	5.000	3.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 5.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	21.000	10.000	25.000	5.000	14.000	3.000	4.2857	1.4286	0.4762	1.1905	0.2381	0.6667	0.1429
last_10	0.35	8	34.000	23.000	51.000	9.000	24.000	6.000	6.0882	1.7647	0.6765	1.5000	0.2647	0.7059	0.1765
season	0.20	8	34.000	23.000	51.000	9.000	24.000	6.000	6.0882	1.7647	0.6765	1.5000	0.2647	0.7059	0.1765

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.0680
predicted_ER	2.4790
predicted_ERA	5.2771
predicted_H	5.7520
predicted_HR	0.6820
predicted_IP	4.2280
predicted_SO	2.9100
predicted_WHIP	1.6135

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	1.0680	0.6942	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.4790	2.3114	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.2771	5.2771	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	5.7520	4.7888	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.6820	0.4433	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.0000	4.2280	4.4982	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	6.0000	2.9100	3.9915	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.6135	1.6135	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.0
H	3
R	2
ER	2
BB	0
SO	6
HR	0
BF	18
Pitches	72

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	23
Pitching_ER	4
Pitching_ERA	6.09
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	5
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.1
Pitching_Pitches	85
Pitching_R	4
Pitching_SO	5
Pitching_Strikes	49
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260430_COL@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	547179
playerID	547179
playerName	Michael Lorenzen
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	COL
teamID	9

Antonio Senzatela (622608) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 10

All-history rows before 20260506: 10

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.300	2.000	-0.300	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.930	2.200	-0.930	-1.200
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	2.000	1.000	-1.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 10

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	10.000	3.000	8.000	3.000	5.000	2.7000	1.1000	0.3000	0.8000	0.3000	0.5000
last_10	0.35	10	22.333	3.000	12.000	6.000	20.000	1.2090	0.8060	0.1343	0.5373	0.2687	0.8955
season	0.20	10	22.333	3.000	12.000	6.000	20.000	1.2090	0.8060	0.1343	0.5373	0.2687	0.8955

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6020
predicted_ER	0.4450
predicted_ERA	1.8800
predicted_H	1.3950
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	2.1280
predicted_SO	1.5270
predicted_WHIP	0.9383

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.6020	0.7413	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4450	0.2893	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.8800	1.8800	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	1.3950	1.6067	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	2.1280	1.7332	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.5270	1.3425	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9383	0.9383	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	10
Season rows before report date	10
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	10
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	11
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	1.21
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	4
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	3
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.2
Pitching_Pitches	42
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	24
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_ATL@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	622608
playerID	622608
playerName	Antonio Senzatela
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	COL
teamID	9

Jimmy Herget (623474) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 13

All-history rows before 20260506: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.538	3.000	-0.538	-3.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.969	1.000	0.031	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.077	0.000	-1.077	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	5.000	9.000	2.000	8.000	1.000	9.0000	2.2000	1.0000	1.8000	0.4000	1.6000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	11.000	7.000	13.000	3.000	11.000	1.000	5.7273	1.4545	0.6364	1.1818	0.2727	1.0000	0.0909
season	0.20	13	14.000	7.000	15.000	3.000	14.000	1.000	4.5000	1.2857	0.5000	1.0714	0.2143	1.0000	0.0714

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3340
predicted_ER	0.8120
predicted_ERA	6.9546
predicted_H	1.5100
predicted_HR	0.1430
predicted_IP	1.0500
predicted_SO	1.3340
predicted_WHIP	1.7562

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3340	0.2171	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.8120	0.5278	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	6.9546	6.9546	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.5100	1.3315	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1430	0.0929	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0500	1.0325	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.3340	0.8671	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.7562	1.7562	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	4.50
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	28
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	19
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_ATL@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	623474
playerID	623474
playerName	Jimmy Herget
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	COL
teamID	9

Juan Mejia (675848) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 14

All-history rows before 20260506: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.714	0.000	-0.714	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.071	2.000	-0.071	-1.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.571	5.000	-0.571	-4.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	7.333	3.000	6.000	3.000	14.000	1.000	3.6818	1.2273	0.4091	0.8182	0.4091	1.9091	0.1364
last_10	0.35	10	11.333	8.000	15.000	5.000	19.000	2.000	6.3529	1.7647	0.7059	1.3235	0.4412	1.6765	0.1765
season	0.20	14	17.333	10.000	21.000	7.000	22.000	2.000	5.1923	1.6154	0.5769	1.2115	0.4038	1.2692	0.1154

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5470
predicted_ER	0.7130
predicted_ERA	4.9188
predicted_H	1.4000
predicted_HR	0.1910
predicted_IP	1.3040
predicted_SO	2.2170
predicted_WHIP	1.4930

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5470	0.3556	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.7130	0.4634	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.9188	4.9188	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.4000	0.9100	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1910	0.1242	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.3040	1.1976	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	2.2170	1.7911	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4930	1.4930	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.19
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	23
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	5
Pitching_Strikes	18
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	675848
playerID	675848
playerName	Juan Mejia
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	COL
teamID	9

Victor Vodnik (680767) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 13

All-history rows before 20260506: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.846	0.000	1.154	2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.015	1.000	-0.015	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.923	1.000	0.077	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.667	9.000	9.000	4.000	7.000	1.000	17.3571	2.7857	1.9286	1.9286	0.8571	1.5000	0.2143
last_10	0.35	10	10.667	9.000	14.000	8.000	11.000	1.000	7.5938	2.0625	0.8438	1.3125	0.7500	1.0312	0.0938
season	0.20	13	13.667	11.000	19.000	8.000	12.000	2.000	7.2439	1.9756	0.8049	1.3902	0.5854	0.8780	0.1463

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.7680
predicted_ER	1.3290
predicted_ERA	11.9173
predicted_H	1.6110
predicted_HR	0.1590
predicted_IP	1.0040
predicted_SO	1.2160
predicted_WHIP	2.3706

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.7680	0.4992	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	1.3290	1.5638	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	11.9173	11.9173	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	1.6110	1.7471	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.1590	0.4533	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0040	1.0026	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.2160	1.1404	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	2.3706	2.3706	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	2
ER	2
BB	0
SO	1
HR	1
BF	6
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	7.24
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_ATL@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	680767
playerID	680767
playerName	Victor Vodnik
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	COL
teamID	9

20260506_OAK@PHI

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 6, "confidence": 0.7016142172287778, "home_win_probability": 0.7016142172287778, "away_win_probability": 0.2983857827712222, "predicted_score_text": "OAK 2 - 6 PHI", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to final winner probability with starter-quality caps.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "predicted_score_text": "OAK 3 - 5 PHI", "confidence": 0.7016142172287778, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score", "final_prediction_synced": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "OAK 3 - 5 PHI", "winner": "PHI"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "OAK 2 - 6 PHI", "winner": "PHI"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": -1, "home_run_delta": 1, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"}}

Away Team: OAK

Jonah Heim (641680) · BATTER · C · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 0

All-history rows before 20260506: 0

System season_avg: 0.2310

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): -

Diff (system - data): -

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.333	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	-	-	-	-
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	-	-	-	-
predicted_AB	3.250	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	-	-	-	-
predicted_AVG	0.251	0.667	0.667	Hitting_AVG	-	-	-	-
predicted_BB	0.417	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	-	-	-	-
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	-	-	-	-
predicted_H	0.690	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	-	-	-	-
predicted_HR	0.120	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	-	-	-	-
predicted_OBP	0.308	0.750	0.750	Hitting_OBP	-	-	-	-
predicted_R	0.333	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	-	-	-	-
predicted_RBI	0.800	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	-	-	-	-
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	-	-	-	-
predicted_SLG	0.500	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SLG	-	-	-	-
predicted_SO	0.417	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	-	-	-	-

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.333	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.250	-
predicted_AVG	0.251	-
predicted_BB	0.417	-
predicted_H	0.690	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.308	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.800	-
predicted_SLG	0.500	-
predicted_SO	0.417	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.368	0.035
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.269	0.019
predicted_AVG	0.251	0.000
predicted_BB	0.364	-0.053
predicted_H	0.777	0.087
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.135	0.015
predicted_OBP	0.308	0.000
predicted_R	0.406	0.073
predicted_RBI	0.903	0.103
predicted_SLG	0.500	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.266	-0.151

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.27), rates preserved: AVG=0.238 HR/AB=0.041

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	6.000	3.000	2.000	0.000	0.2500	0.3158	0.5625	0.2500	0.0625	0.3750	0.1250	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	9.000	4.000	1.000	8.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	0.2647	0.2973	0.4706	0.2647	0.0294	0.2353	0.0588	0.0882
season	0.20	12	-	39.000	9.000	4.000	1.000	8.000	4.000	5.000	5.000	0.2308	0.3111	0.4103	0.2308	0.0256	0.2051	0.1282	0.1282

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3870
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.2800
predicted_AVG	0.2513
predicted_BB	0.3360
predicted_H	0.8240
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1430
predicted_OBP	0.3084
predicted_R	0.4450
predicted_RBI	0.9580
predicted_SLG	0.4999
predicted_SO	0.1850

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3330	0.3870	0.3681	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2500	3.2800	3.2695	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2510	0.2513	0.2512	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4170	0.3360	0.3644	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6900	0.8240	0.7771	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1430	0.1349	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3080	0.3084	0.3083	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.4450	0.4058	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.8000	0.9580	0.9027	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5000	0.4999	0.4999	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4170	0.1850	0.2662	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	0
Season rows before report date	0
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.231

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

No historical data found for this player before report date.

Tyler Soderstrom (691016) · BATTER · LF · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 33

All-history rows before 20260506: 33

System season_avg: 0.2160

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2160

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_3B	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_AB	3.788	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.788	3.000	-0.788	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.221	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.216	0.000	0.117	0.333
predicted_BB	0.485	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.485	1.000	0.515	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.810	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.818	0.000	0.182	1.000
predicted_HR	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.121	0.000	-0.121	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.304	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.303	0.250	0.197	0.250
predicted_R	0.515	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.515	0.000	-0.515	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.576	0.000	-0.576	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.458	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.416	0.000	-0.083	0.333
predicted_SO	0.909	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.909	2.000	0.091	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.333	-
predicted_3B	0.030	-
predicted_AB	3.788	-
predicted_AVG	0.221	-
predicted_BB	0.485	-
predicted_H	0.810	-
predicted_HR	0.190	-
predicted_OBP	0.304	-
predicted_R	0.515	-
predicted_RBI	0.350	-
predicted_SLG	0.458	-
predicted_SO	0.909	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.309	-0.024
predicted_3B	0.014	-0.016
predicted_AB	3.691	-0.097
predicted_AVG	0.221	0.000
predicted_BB	0.464	-0.021
predicted_H	0.806	-0.004
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.187	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.304	-0.000
predicted_R	0.560	0.045
predicted_RBI	0.345	-0.005
predicted_SLG	0.458	0.000
predicted_SO	1.029	0.120

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.213 HR/AB=0.049

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	7.000	0.2222	0.3000	0.4444	0.2222	0.0556	0.0556	0.1111	0.3889
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	8.000	4.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	6.000	5.000	8.000	0.2222	0.3095	0.5000	0.2222	0.0556	0.1111	0.1389	0.2222
season	0.20	33	-	125.000	27.000	11.000	1.000	4.000	19.000	17.000	16.000	30.000	0.2160	0.3028	0.4160	0.2160	0.0320	0.1520	0.1280	0.2400

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2960
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.6380
predicted_AVG	0.2210
predicted_BB	0.4520
predicted_H	0.8040
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1850
predicted_OBP	0.3039
predicted_R	0.5840
predicted_RBI	0.3430
predicted_SLG	0.4582
predicted_SO	1.0940

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3330	0.2960	0.3090	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0300	0.0060	0.0144	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7880	3.6380	3.6905	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2210	0.2210	0.2210	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4850	0.4520	0.4636	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8100	0.8040	0.8061	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1900	0.1850	0.1867	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3040	0.3039	0.3039	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5150	0.5840	0.5598	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3500	0.3430	0.3455	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4580	0.4582	0.4581	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9090	1.0940	1.0292	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.216

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260505_OAK@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	691016
playerID	691016
playerName	Tyler Soderstrom
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	OAK
teamID	20

Jeff McNeil (643446) · BATTER · 2B · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 27

All-history rows before 20260506: 27

System season_avg: 0.3330

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3333

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.296	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.296	1.000	-0.296	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.556	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.556	4.000	0.444	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.424	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.333	0.500	0.167	0.000
predicted_BB	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.370	0.000	-0.370	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.074	0.000	-0.074	0.000
predicted_H	1.320	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	1.185	2.000	0.815	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.037	0.000	-0.037	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.461	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.394	0.500	0.106	0.000
predicted_R	0.333	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.810	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.444	3.000	-0.444	-3.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.037	0.000	-0.037	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.585	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.448	0.750	0.052	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.333	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.296	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.556	-
predicted_AVG	0.424	-
predicted_BB	0.370	-
predicted_H	1.320	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.461	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.810	-
predicted_SLG	0.585	-
predicted_SO	0.333	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.388	0.092
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.520	-0.036
predicted_AVG	0.424	0.000
predicted_BB	0.363	-0.007
predicted_H	1.427	0.107
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.041	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.461	0.000
predicted_R	0.308	-0.025
predicted_RBI	0.879	0.069
predicted_SLG	0.585	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.181	-0.152

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.56), rates preserved: AVG=0.401 HR/AB=0.011

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	2.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=35.0, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	2.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	8.000	3.000	0.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	0.000	0.4706	0.5000	0.6471	0.4706	0.0000	0.3529	0.1177	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	15.000	3.000	1.000	8.000	4.000	3.000	1.000	0.4167	0.4500	0.5833	0.4167	0.0278	0.2222	0.0833	0.0278
season	0.20	27	-	96.000	32.000	8.000	1.000	12.000	9.000	10.000	9.000	0.3333	0.3945	0.4479	0.3333	0.0104	0.1250	0.1042	0.0938

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.4380
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.5010
predicted_AVG	0.4243
predicted_BB	0.3600
predicted_H	1.4850
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.0410
predicted_OBP	0.4614
predicted_R	0.2940
predicted_RBI	0.9160
predicted_SLG	0.5849
predicted_SO	0.1000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2960	0.4380	0.3883	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5560	3.5010	3.5202	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.4240	0.4243	0.4242	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3700	0.3600	0.3635	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.3200	1.4850	1.4272	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0410	0.0407	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4610	0.4614	0.4613	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.2940	0.3076	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.8100	0.9160	0.8789	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5850	0.5849	0.5849	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3330	0.1000	0.1815	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.333

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260503_CLE@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	643446
playerID	643446
playerName	Jeff McNeil
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	OAK
teamID	20

Lawrence Butler (671732) · BATTER · CF · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 24

All-history rows before 20260506: 24

System season_avg: 0.1950

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1954

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.083	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.625	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.625	2.000	0.375	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.195	0.500	-0.195	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.500	2.000	-0.500	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_H	0.550	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.708	1.000	-0.708	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.307	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.293	0.750	-0.293	-0.750
predicted_R	0.417	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.417	0.000	-0.417	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.510	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.329	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.322	0.500	-0.322	-0.500
predicted_SO	1.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	0.000	-1.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.083	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.625	-
predicted_AVG	0.182	-
predicted_BB	0.500	-
predicted_H	0.550	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.307	-
predicted_R	0.417	-
predicted_RBI	0.510	-
predicted_SLG	0.329	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.063	-0.020
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.485	-0.140
predicted_AVG	0.182	0.000
predicted_BB	0.577	0.077
predicted_H	0.596	0.046
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.143	0.013
predicted_OBP	0.307	0.000
predicted_R	0.385	-0.032
predicted_RBI	0.557	0.047
predicted_SLG	0.329	0.000
predicted_SO	0.860	-0.140

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.62), rates preserved: AVG=0.164 HR/AB=0.039

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 24

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	0.1765	0.3000	0.3529	0.1765	0.0588	0.1765	0.1765	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	3.000	7.000	9.000	0.1818	0.3250	0.3030	0.1818	0.0303	0.1818	0.2121	0.2727
season	0.20	24	-	87.000	17.000	2.000	3.000	12.000	10.000	12.000	24.000	0.1954	0.2929	0.3218	0.1954	0.0345	0.1379	0.1379	0.2759

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0520
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.4100
predicted_AVG	0.1821
predicted_BB	0.6180
predicted_H	0.6210
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1500
predicted_OBP	0.3073
predicted_R	0.3670
predicted_RBI	0.5820
predicted_SLG	0.3292
predicted_SO	0.7840

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0830	0.0520	0.0628	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6250	3.4100	3.4853	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1820	0.1821	0.1821	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5000	0.6180	0.5767	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5500	0.6210	0.5961	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1500	0.1430	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3070	0.3073	0.3072	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4170	0.3670	0.3845	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5100	0.5820	0.5568	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3290	0.3292	0.3291	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.7840	0.8596	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	24
Season rows before report date	24
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	24
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.195

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	1
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260502_CLE@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	671732
playerID	671732
playerName	Lawrence Butler
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	OAK
teamID	20

Carlos Cortes (666126) · BATTER · RF · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 20

All-history rows before 20260506: 20

System season_avg: 0.3730

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3731

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.150	0.000	-0.150	0.000
predicted_3B	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_AB	3.350	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.350	5.000	0.650	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.452	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.373	0.400	-0.373	-0.400
predicted_BB	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.350	0.000	-0.350	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.430	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.250	2.000	-1.250	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.260	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.484	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.432	0.400	-0.432	-0.400
predicted_R	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.500	2.000	-0.500	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.750	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.650	0.000	-0.650	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.791	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.627	0.400	-0.627	-0.400
predicted_SO	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.350	0.000	-0.350	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.150	-
predicted_3B	0.050	-
predicted_AB	3.350	-
predicted_AVG	0.452	-
predicted_BB	0.350	-
predicted_H	1.430	-
predicted_HR	0.260	-
predicted_OBP	0.484	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.750	-
predicted_SLG	0.791	-
predicted_SO	0.350	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.097	-0.053
predicted_3B	0.103	0.053
predicted_AB	3.665	0.315
predicted_AVG	0.452	0.000
predicted_BB	0.275	-0.075
predicted_H	1.628	0.198
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.300	0.040
predicted_OBP	0.484	0.000
predicted_R	0.608	0.108
predicted_RBI	0.852	0.102
predicted_SLG	0.791	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.455	0.105

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.67), rates preserved: AVG=0.444 HR/AB=0.082

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	2.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	2.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	10.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	4.000	1.000	3.000	0.5000	0.5238	0.9000	0.5000	0.1000	0.3000	0.0500	0.1500
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	17.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	7.000	6.000	2.000	5.000	0.4359	0.4634	0.7436	0.4359	0.0769	0.1795	0.0513	0.1282
season	0.20	20	-	67.000	25.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	13.000	10.000	7.000	7.000	0.3731	0.4324	0.6269	0.3731	0.0597	0.1940	0.1045	0.1045

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0690
predicted_3B	0.1320
predicted_AB	3.8350
predicted_AVG	0.4522
predicted_BB	0.2350
predicted_H	1.7340
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.3220
predicted_OBP	0.4844
predicted_R	0.6660
predicted_RBI	0.9070
predicted_SLG	0.7906
predicted_SO	0.5110

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1500	0.0690	0.0974	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0500	0.1320	0.1033	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3500	3.8350	3.6652	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.4520	0.4522	0.4521	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3500	0.2350	0.2752	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.4300	1.7340	1.6276	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2600	0.3220	0.3003	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4840	0.4844	0.4843	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.6660	0.6079	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7500	0.9070	0.8520	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.7910	0.7906	0.7907	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3500	0.5110	0.4546	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.373

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260502_CLE@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	666126
playerID	666126
playerName	Carlos Cortes
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	OAK
teamID	20

Brent Rooker (667670) · BATTER · DH · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 18

All-history rows before 20260506: 18

System season_avg: 0.1550

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1549

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.944	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.944	4.000	0.056	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.193	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.155	0.000	-0.155	0.000
predicted_BB	0.389	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.389	0.000	-0.389	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.730	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.611	0.000	-0.611	0.000
predicted_HR	0.210	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.229	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.225	0.000	-0.225	0.000
predicted_R	0.389	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.389	0.000	-0.389	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.790	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.356	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.282	0.000	-0.282	0.000
predicted_SO	1.444	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.444	2.000	-0.444	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.944	-
predicted_AVG	0.193	-
predicted_BB	0.389	-
predicted_H	0.730	-
predicted_HR	0.210	-
predicted_OBP	0.229	-
predicted_R	0.389	-
predicted_RBI	0.790	-
predicted_SLG	0.356	-
predicted_SO	1.444	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.113	0.169
predicted_AVG	0.193	0.000
predicted_BB	0.283	-0.106
predicted_H	0.783	0.053
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.222	0.012
predicted_OBP	0.229	0.000
predicted_R	0.418	0.029
predicted_RBI	0.849	0.059
predicted_SLG	0.356	0.000
predicted_SO	1.321	-0.123

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.11), rates preserved: AVG=0.190 HR/AB=0.054

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 3.944

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	22.000	5.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	6.000	0.2273	0.2273	0.3636	0.2273	0.0454	0.1818	0.0000	0.2727
last_10	0.35	10	-	41.000	7.000	3.000	11.000	5.000	4.000	12.000	0.1707	0.2340	0.3902	0.1707	0.0732	0.2683	0.0976	0.2927
season	0.20	18	-	71.000	11.000	3.000	12.000	7.000	7.000	26.000	0.1549	0.2250	0.2817	0.1549	0.0423	0.1690	0.0986	0.3662

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.2040
predicted_AVG	0.1930
predicted_BB	0.2260
predicted_H	0.8110
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.2290
predicted_OBP	0.2292
predicted_R	0.4340
predicted_RBI	0.8810
predicted_SLG	0.3565
predicted_SO	1.2540

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9440	4.2040	4.1130	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1930	0.1930	0.1930	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3890	0.2260	0.2831	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7300	0.8110	0.7827	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2100	0.2290	0.2223	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2290	0.2292	0.2291	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3890	0.4340	0.4183	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7900	0.8810	0.8491	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3560	0.3565	0.3563	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4440	1.2540	1.3205	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.155

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260505_OAK@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	667670
playerID	667670
playerName	Brent Rooker
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	OAK
teamID	20

Nick Kurtz (701762) · BATTER · 1B · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 34

All-history rows before 20260506: 34

System season_avg: 0.2440

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2439

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.147	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.147	0.000	-0.147	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.620	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.618	4.000	-0.618	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.249	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.244	0.250	-0.244	-0.250
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_H	0.900	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.882	1.000	-0.882	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.147	0.000	-0.147	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.351	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.408	0.250	-0.158	0.000
predicted_R	0.559	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.559	0.000	-0.559	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.471	0.000	-0.471	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.088	0.000	-0.088	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.347	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.407	0.250	-0.407	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.500	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.500	1.000	0.500	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.147	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.620	-
predicted_AVG	0.249	-
predicted_BB	1.000	-
predicted_H	0.900	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.351	-
predicted_R	0.559	-
predicted_RBI	0.500	-
predicted_SLG	0.347	-
predicted_SO	1.500	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.174	0.027
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.818	0.198
predicted_AVG	0.249	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.762	-0.238
predicted_H	0.949	0.049
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.064	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.351	0.000
predicted_R	0.500	-0.059
predicted_RBI	0.525	0.025
predicted_SLG	0.347	0.000
predicted_SO	1.495	-0.005

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.82), rates preserved: AVG=0.249 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	0.2500	0.3182	0.3000	0.2500	0.0000	0.1500	0.1000	0.3500
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	10.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	5.000	7.000	16.000	0.2500	0.3617	0.3750	0.2500	0.0250	0.1250	0.1750	0.4000
season	0.20	34	-	123.000	30.000	5.000	5.000	16.000	19.000	34.000	51.000	0.2439	0.4076	0.4065	0.2439	0.0406	0.1301	0.2764	0.4146

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1890
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.9240
predicted_AVG	0.2488
predicted_BB	0.6340
predicted_H	0.9760
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0660
predicted_OBP	0.3513
predicted_R	0.4690
predicted_RBI	0.5390
predicted_SLG	0.3475
predicted_SO	1.4930

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1470	0.1890	0.1743	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6200	3.9240	3.8176	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2490	0.2488	0.2489	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.6340	0.7621	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9000	0.9760	0.9494	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0660	0.0639	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3510	0.3513	0.3512	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5590	0.4690	0.5005	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5000	0.5390	0.5253	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3470	0.3475	0.3473	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.5000	1.4930	1.4954	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.244

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260505_OAK@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	701762
playerID	701762
playerName	Nick Kurtz
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	OAK
teamID	20

Jacob Wilson (805779) · BATTER · SS · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 34

All-history rows before 20260506: 34

System season_avg: 0.2960

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2958

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.235	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.235	0.000	-0.235	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.176	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.176	3.000	-0.176	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.345	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.296	0.333	-0.046	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.118	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.390	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.235	1.000	-0.235	0.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.389	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.313	0.333	-0.063	-0.083
predicted_R	0.471	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.471	0.000	-0.471	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.441	0.000	-0.441	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.416	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.394	0.333	-0.144	-0.083
predicted_SO	0.471	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.471	1.000	-0.471	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.235	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.176	-
predicted_AVG	0.345	-
predicted_BB	0.118	-
predicted_H	1.390	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.389	-
predicted_R	0.471	-
predicted_RBI	0.160	-
predicted_SLG	0.416	-
predicted_SO	0.471	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.240	0.005
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.980	-0.196
predicted_AVG	0.345	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.244	0.126
predicted_H	1.355	-0.035
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.011	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.389	-0.000
predicted_R	0.540	0.069
predicted_RBI	0.155	-0.005
predicted_SLG	0.416	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.351	-0.120

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.18), rates preserved: AVG=0.324 HR/AB=0.003

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 4.176

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	0.3684	0.4286	0.4211	0.3684	0.0000	0.0000	0.1053	0.0526
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	13.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	6.000	3.000	3.000	0.3421	0.3810	0.4211	0.3421	0.0000	0.0526	0.0790	0.0790
season	0.20	34	-	142.000	42.000	8.000	2.000	15.000	16.000	4.000	16.000	0.2958	0.3129	0.3944	0.2958	0.0141	0.1056	0.0282	0.1127

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2430
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.8750
predicted_AVG	0.3447
predicted_BB	0.3120
predicted_H	1.3360
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0110
predicted_OBP	0.3888
predicted_R	0.5770
predicted_RBI	0.1530
predicted_SLG	0.4158
predicted_SO	0.2860

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2350	0.2430	0.2402	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1760	3.8750	3.9804	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3450	0.3447	0.3448	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1180	0.3120	0.2441	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.3900	1.3360	1.3549	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0110	0.0106	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3890	0.3888	0.3889	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4710	0.5770	0.5399	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1600	0.1530	0.1554	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4160	0.4158	0.4159	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4710	0.2860	0.3507	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.296

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	1
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260505_OAK@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	805779
playerID	805779
playerName	Jacob Wilson
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	OAK
teamID	20

Zack Gelof (680869) · BATTER · 3B · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 12

All-history rows before 20260506: 12

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.083	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.333	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.333	3.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.260	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.333	-0.250	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.250	1.000	-0.250	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.710	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.833	1.000	-0.833	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.330	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.302	0.500	-0.302	-0.500
predicted_R	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.480	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.583	0.000	-0.583	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.445	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.425	0.333	-0.425	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.750	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.750	0.000	0.250	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.083	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.333	-
predicted_AVG	0.260	-
predicted_BB	0.250	-
predicted_H	0.710	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.330	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.480	-
predicted_SLG	0.445	-
predicted_SO	0.750	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.039	-0.044
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.274	-0.059
predicted_AVG	0.260	0.000
predicted_BB	0.308	0.058
predicted_H	0.796	0.086
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.183	0.023
predicted_OBP	0.330	-0.000
predicted_R	0.470	-0.030
predicted_RBI	0.536	0.056
predicted_SLG	0.445	0.000
predicted_SO	0.631	-0.119

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.33), rates preserved: AVG=0.239 HR/AB=0.055

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	0.2667	0.3529	0.4667	0.2667	0.0667	0.2000	0.1333	0.1333
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	9.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	5.000	3.000	7.000	0.2571	0.3158	0.4286	0.2571	0.0571	0.1429	0.0857	0.2000
season	0.20	12	-	40.000	10.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	6.000	3.000	9.000	0.2500	0.3023	0.4250	0.2500	0.0500	0.1750	0.0750	0.2250

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0160
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.2420
predicted_AVG	0.2600
predicted_BB	0.3400
predicted_H	0.8430
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1950
predicted_OBP	0.3298
predicted_R	0.4540
predicted_RBI	0.5670
predicted_SLG	0.4450
predicted_SO	0.5670

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0830	0.0160	0.0394	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3330	3.2420	3.2738	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2600	0.2600	0.2600	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2500	0.3400	0.3085	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7100	0.8430	0.7964	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.1950	0.1827	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3300	0.3298	0.3299	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.4540	0.4701	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4800	0.5670	0.5365	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4450	0.4450	0.4450	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7500	0.5670	0.6310	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260505_OAK@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	680869
playerID	680869
playerName	Zack Gelof
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	OAK
teamID	20

Jeffrey Springs (605488) · PITCHER · Starter · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 7

All-history rows before 20260506: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	2.429	2.000	-1.429	-1.000
predicted_IP	5.000	5.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.457	3.000	-0.457	2.000
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	-	Pitching_SO	5.000	4.000	-1.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 5.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	27.333	14.000	23.000	8.000	26.000	6.000	4.6098	1.1341	0.5122	0.8415	0.2927	0.9512	0.2195
last_10	0.35	7	38.667	17.000	30.000	12.000	35.000	6.000	3.9569	1.0862	0.4397	0.7759	0.3103	0.9052	0.1552
season	0.20	7	38.667	17.000	30.000	12.000	35.000	6.000	3.9569	1.0862	0.4397	0.7759	0.3103	0.9052	0.1552

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.6630
predicted_ER	2.5970
predicted_ERA	4.2507
predicted_H	4.4280
predicted_HR	1.0120
predicted_IP	5.4980
predicted_SO	5.0910
predicted_WHIP	1.1078

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	1.6630	1.4310	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	2.5970	2.0381	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.2507	4.2507	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	4.4280	4.2782	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	1.0120	0.6578	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.0000	5.4980	5.3237	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	4.0000	5.0910	4.7092	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1078	1.1078	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.0
H	4
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	4
HR	0
BF	21
Pitches	79

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	16
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	3.96
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	5
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	3.0
Pitching_Pitches	67
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	4
Pitching_Strikes	42
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260430_KC@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	605488
playerID	605488
playerName	Jeffrey Springs
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	OAK
teamID	20

Hogan Harris (663687) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 19

All-history rows before 20260506: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	5.000	5.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.316	1.000	4.684	4.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.737	0.100	0.263	0.900
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	2.000	7.000	4.000	6.000	1.000	4.5000	2.7500	0.5000	1.7500	1.0000	1.5000	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	8.667	3.000	8.000	6.000	9.000	2.000	3.1154	1.6154	0.3462	0.9231	0.6923	1.0385	0.2308
season	0.20	19	18.667	6.000	15.000	16.000	19.000	2.000	2.8929	1.6607	0.3214	0.8036	0.8571	1.0179	0.1071

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.7430
predicted_ER	0.3530
predicted_ERA	3.6940
predicted_H	1.0930
predicted_HR	0.1850
predicted_IP	0.8600
predicted_SO	1.0680
predicted_WHIP	2.1350

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.7430	1.1829	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	5.0000	0.3530	1.9794	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.6940	3.6940	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	1.0930	2.1105	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.1850	0.4702	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.8600	0.9090	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0680	1.0442	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	2.1350	2.1350	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	4
R	5
ER	5
BB	2
SO	1
HR	1
BF	9
Pitches	38

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	2.89
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	2
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	20
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260502_CLE@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	663687
playerID	663687
playerName	Hogan Harris
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	OAK
teamID	20

Jack Perkins (678022) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 8

All-history rows before 20260506: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.500	0.000	-0.500
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.550	1.000	-0.550
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	2.125	1.000	-1.125

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	8.333	0.000	3.000	2.000	10.000	0.0000	0.6000	0.0000	0.3600	0.2400	1.2000
last_10	0.35	8	13.333	4.000	11.000	3.000	17.000	2.7000	1.0500	0.3000	0.8250	0.2250	1.2750
season	0.20	8	13.333	4.000	11.000	3.000	17.000	2.7000	1.0500	0.3000	0.8250	0.2250	1.2750

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3860
predicted_ER	0.2750
predicted_ERA	1.4850
predicted_H	1.0260
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.6670
predicted_SO	2.0690
predicted_WHIP	0.8475

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3860	0.2509	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2750	0.1788	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.4850	1.4850	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.0260	1.0169	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.6670	1.4335	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	2.0690	1.6949	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.8475	0.8475	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.70
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260430_KC@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	678022
playerID	678022
playerName	Jack Perkins
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	OAK
teamID	20

Joel Kuhnel (669270) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 12

All-history rows before 20260506: 12

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.842	1.000	0.158	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.417	0.000	1.583	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.667	2.000	6.000	4.000	2.000	3.1765	1.7647	0.3529	1.0588	0.7059	0.3529
last_10	0.35	10	11.333	3.000	10.000	4.000	4.000	2.3824	1.2353	0.2647	0.8823	0.3529	0.3529
season	0.20	12	12.667	3.000	10.000	4.000	5.000	2.1316	1.1053	0.2368	0.7895	0.3158	0.3947

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5640
predicted_ER	0.3340
predicted_ERA	2.6896
predicted_H	1.0540
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.1180
predicted_SO	0.4040
predicted_WHIP	1.4475

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5640	0.3666	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3340	0.2171	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.6896	2.6896	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.0540	0.6851	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.1180	1.0767	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.4040	0.9626	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4475	1.4475	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.13
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_CLE@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	669270
playerID	669270
playerName	Joel Kuhnel
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	OAK
teamID	20

Home Team: PHI

Edmundo Sosa (624641) · BATTER · 2B · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 12

All-history rows before 20260506: 12

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.333	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.333	4.000	0.667	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.294	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.500	0.000	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.083	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.920	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.833	2.000	0.167	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.083	0.000	0.917	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.304	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.268	0.500	-0.018	-0.250
predicted_R	0.250	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.250	1.000	0.750	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	0.417	1.000	1.583	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.083	1.000	-0.083	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.413	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SLG	0.400	0.500	0.600	0.500
predicted_SO	0.750	3.000	3.000	Hitting_SO	0.750	1.000	2.250	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.333	-
predicted_AVG	0.294	-
predicted_BB	0.083	-
predicted_H	0.920	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.304	-
predicted_R	0.250	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.413	-
predicted_SO	0.750	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.246	-0.004
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.310	-0.023
predicted_AVG	0.294	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.062	-0.021
predicted_H	0.951	0.031
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.304	0.000
predicted_R	0.246	-0.004
predicted_RBI	0.432	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.413	0.000
predicted_SO	0.694	-0.056

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.33), rates preserved: AVG=0.285 HR/AB=0.015

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	0.3125	0.3125	0.3750	0.3125	0.0000	0.1250	0.0000	0.1875
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	10.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	1.000	7.000	0.2941	0.3143	0.4706	0.2941	0.0294	0.1471	0.0294	0.2059
season	0.20	12	-	40.000	10.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	1.000	9.000	0.2500	0.2683	0.4000	0.2500	0.0250	0.1250	0.0250	0.2250

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2440
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.2970
predicted_AVG	0.2936
predicted_BB	0.0500
predicted_H	0.9680
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0500
predicted_OBP	0.3043
predicted_R	0.2440
predicted_RBI	0.4380
predicted_SLG	0.4135
predicted_SO	0.6640

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.2440	0.2461	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3330	3.2970	3.3096	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2940	0.2936	0.2937	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0830	0.0500	0.0616	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9200	0.9680	0.9512	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0500	0.0500	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3040	0.3043	0.3042	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2500	0.2440	0.2461	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.4380	0.4317	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4130	0.4135	0.4133	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7500	0.6640	0.6941	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260501_PHI@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	624641
playerID	624641
playerName	Edmundo Sosa
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	PHI
teamID	21

Kyle Schwarber (656941) · BATTER · DH · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 36

All-history rows before 20260506: 36

System season_avg: 0.2050

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2045

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_3B	0.028	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_AB	3.667	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.667	5.000	-0.667	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.169	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.205	0.000	-0.205	0.000
predicted_BB	0.694	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.694	0.000	0.306	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.590	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.750	0.000	-0.750	0.000
predicted_HR	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.306	0.000	-0.306	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.263	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.348	0.000	-0.098	0.250
predicted_R	0.611	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.611	0.000	-0.611	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.556	0.000	-0.556	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.354	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.515	0.000	-0.515	0.000
predicted_SO	1.417	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.417	2.000	-1.417	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.028	-
predicted_AB	3.667	-
predicted_AVG	0.169	-
predicted_BB	0.694	-
predicted_H	0.590	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.263	-
predicted_R	0.611	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.354	-
predicted_SO	1.417	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.130	-0.037
predicted_3B	0.038	0.010
predicted_AB	3.830	0.163
predicted_AVG	0.169	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.587	-0.107
predicted_H	0.637	0.047
predicted_HBP	0.024	-
predicted_HR	0.170	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.263	0.000
predicted_R	0.522	-0.089
predicted_RBI	0.292	0.022
predicted_SLG	0.354	0.000
predicted_SO	1.558	0.141

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.83), rates preserved: AVG=0.166 HR/AB=0.044

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, BvP AVG=0.286)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	11.000	0.0952	0.1364	0.0952	0.0952	0.0000	0.0000	0.0476	0.5238
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	9.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	7.000	8.000	11.000	0.2432	0.3778	0.5946	0.2432	0.0811	0.1351	0.2162	0.2973
season	0.20	36	-	132.000	27.000	6.000	1.000	11.000	20.000	22.000	25.000	51.000	0.2045	0.3478	0.5152	0.2046	0.0833	0.1515	0.1894	0.3864

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1100
predicted_3B	0.0430
predicted_AB	3.9180
predicted_AVG	0.1689
predicted_BB	0.5290
predicted_H	0.6620
predicted_HBP	0.0240
predicted_HR	0.1760
predicted_OBP	0.2632
predicted_R	0.4740
predicted_RBI	0.3040
predicted_SLG	0.3540
predicted_SO	1.6340

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.1100	0.1300	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0280	0.0430	0.0377	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6670	3.9180	3.8301	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1690	0.1689	0.1689	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6940	0.5290	0.5867	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5900	0.6620	0.6368	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0240	0.0240	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.1760	0.1704	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2630	0.2632	0.2631	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6110	0.4740	0.5219	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.3040	0.2921	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3540	0.3540	0.3540	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4170	1.6340	1.5581	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.205

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260505_OAK@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	656941
playerID	656941
playerName	Kyle Schwarber
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	PHI
teamID	21

Bryce Harper (547180) · BATTER · 1B · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 36

All-history rows before 20260506: 36

System season_avg: 0.2860

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2857

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	0.750	1.000
predicted_3B	0.028	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_AB	3.694	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.694	4.000	0.306	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.373	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.286	0.750	-0.036	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.556	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.556	1.000	-0.556	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_H	1.340	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.056	3.000	-0.056	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.410	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.250	2.000	-0.250	-2.000
predicted_OBP	0.459	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.377	0.800	-0.127	-0.550
predicted_R	0.611	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.611	3.000	0.389	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.780	3.000	3.000	Hitting_RBI	0.639	3.000	2.361	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.841	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.571	2.250	-0.071	-1.750
predicted_SO	0.694	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.694	0.000	-0.694	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.028	-
predicted_AB	3.694	-
predicted_AVG	0.373	-
predicted_BB	0.556	-
predicted_H	1.340	-
predicted_HR	0.410	-
predicted_OBP	0.459	-
predicted_R	0.611	-
predicted_RBI	0.780	-
predicted_SLG	0.841	-
predicted_SO	0.694	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.385	0.135
predicted_3B	0.014	-0.014
predicted_AB	3.704	0.010
predicted_AVG	0.373	0.000
predicted_BB	0.602	0.046
predicted_H	1.368	0.028
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.418	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.459	0.000
predicted_R	0.847	0.236
predicted_RBI	0.796	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.841	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.669	-0.025

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.70), rates preserved: AVG=0.369 HR/AB=0.113

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	3.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	8.000	3.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	6.000	3.000	3.000	0.4211	0.5000	1.0526	0.4210	0.1579	0.2105	0.1579	0.1579
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	13.000	4.000	0.000	3.000	9.000	9.000	7.000	7.000	0.3611	0.4545	0.7222	0.3611	0.0833	0.2500	0.1944	0.1944
season	0.20	36	-	133.000	38.000	9.000	1.000	9.000	23.000	22.000	20.000	25.000	0.2857	0.3766	0.5714	0.2857	0.0677	0.1729	0.1504	0.1880

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.4580
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.7090
predicted_AVG	0.3730
predicted_BB	0.6270
predicted_H	1.3830
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.4220
predicted_OBP	0.4594
predicted_R	0.9740
predicted_RBI	0.8040
predicted_SLG	0.8407
predicted_SO	0.6550

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.4580	0.3852	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0280	0.0060	0.0137	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6940	3.7090	3.7037	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3730	0.3730	0.3730	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5560	0.6270	0.6021	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.3400	1.3830	1.3679	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.4100	0.4220	0.4178	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4590	0.4594	0.4593	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6110	0.9740	0.8469	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7800	0.8040	0.7956	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.8410	0.8407	0.8408	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6940	0.6550	0.6686	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	3
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.286

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.75
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	2
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	3
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	9
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260505_OAK@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	547180
playerID	547180
playerName	Bryce Harper
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	PHI
teamID	21

Trea Turner (607208) · BATTER · SS · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 35

All-history rows before 20260506: 35

System season_avg: 0.2410

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2414

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	1.000	-0.200	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.170	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	4.143	5.000	-1.143	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.241	0.400	-0.241	-0.400
predicted_BB	0.343	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.343	0.000	0.657	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.000	2.000	-1.000	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.114	0.000	-0.114	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.272	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.299	0.400	0.101	0.000
predicted_R	0.657	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.657	2.000	-0.657	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.343	1.000	-0.343	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.086	0.000	-0.086	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.433	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.372	0.600	-0.372	-0.600
predicted_SO	0.914	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.914	1.000	0.086	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.170	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.343	-
predicted_H	1.020	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.272	-
predicted_R	0.657	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.433	-
predicted_SO	0.914	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.257	0.057
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.322	0.152
predicted_AVG	0.244	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.237	-0.106
predicted_H	1.054	0.034
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.178	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.272	-0.000
predicted_R	0.810	0.153
predicted_RBI	0.416	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.433	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.982	0.068

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.32), rates preserved: AVG=0.244 HR/AB=0.041

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 4.170

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	23.000	5.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	0.000	5.000	0.2174	0.2174	0.4348	0.2174	0.0435	0.0870	0.0000	0.2174
last_10	0.35	10	-	43.000	12.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	9.000	3.000	11.000	0.2791	0.3261	0.4651	0.2791	0.0465	0.1163	0.0698	0.2558
season	0.20	35	-	145.000	35.000	7.000	4.000	12.000	23.000	12.000	32.000	0.2414	0.2994	0.3724	0.2414	0.0276	0.0828	0.0828	0.2207

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2870
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.4040
predicted_AVG	0.2438
predicted_BB	0.1800
predicted_H	1.0730
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1820
predicted_OBP	0.2718
predicted_R	0.8930
predicted_RBI	0.4240
predicted_SLG	0.4329
predicted_SO	1.0190

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.2870	0.2566	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1700	4.4040	4.3221	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2438	0.2439	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3430	0.1800	0.2370	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0200	1.0730	1.0545	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.1820	0.1778	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2720	0.2718	0.2719	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6570	0.8930	0.8104	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.4240	0.4156	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4330	0.4329	0.4329	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9140	1.0190	0.9823	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.241

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260505_OAK@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	607208
playerID	607208
playerName	Trea Turner
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	PHI
teamID	21

Brandon Marsh (669016) · BATTER · CF · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 29

All-history rows before 20260506: 29

System season_avg: 0.3210

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3214

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.207	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.207	0.000	0.793	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.862	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.862	5.000	0.138	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.389	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.321	0.600	0.179	-0.100
predicted_BB	0.138	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.138	0.000	-0.138	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.260	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	1.241	3.000	0.759	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.138	0.000	-0.138	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.429	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.345	0.600	0.155	-0.100
predicted_R	0.552	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.552	1.000	0.448	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.370	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.621	0.000	0.379	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.103	0.000	-0.103	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.535	0.750	0.750	Hitting_SLG	0.482	0.600	0.268	0.150
predicted_SO	0.793	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.793	1.000	-0.793	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.207	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.862	-
predicted_AVG	0.389	-
predicted_BB	0.138	-
predicted_H	1.260	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.429	-
predicted_R	0.552	-
predicted_RBI	0.370	-
predicted_SLG	0.535	-
predicted_SO	0.793	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.262	0.055
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.956	0.094
predicted_AVG	0.389	0.000
predicted_BB	0.170	0.032
predicted_H	1.456	0.196
predicted_HBP	0.132	-
predicted_HR	0.091	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.429	0.000
predicted_R	0.680	0.128
predicted_RBI	0.427	0.057
predicted_SLG	0.535	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.833	0.040

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.96), rates preserved: AVG=0.368 HR/AB=0.023

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.862

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	8.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	5.000	0.4000	0.4545	0.5000	0.4000	0.0000	0.0500	0.0500	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	41.000	17.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	8.000	2.000	7.000	0.4146	0.4444	0.6098	0.4146	0.0488	0.1707	0.0488	0.1707
season	0.20	29	-	112.000	36.000	6.000	4.000	18.000	16.000	4.000	23.000	0.3214	0.3445	0.4821	0.3214	0.0357	0.1607	0.0357	0.2054

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2920
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.0070
predicted_AVG	0.3894
predicted_BB	0.1870
predicted_H	1.5610
predicted_HBP	0.1320
predicted_HR	0.0970
predicted_OBP	0.4290
predicted_R	0.7490
predicted_RBI	0.4580
predicted_SLG	0.5349
predicted_SO	0.8550

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2070	0.2920	0.2622	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8620	4.0070	3.9562	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3890	0.3894	0.3893	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1380	0.1870	0.1699	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2600	1.5610	1.4556	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1320	0.1320	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0970	0.0911	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4290	0.4290	0.4290	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5520	0.7490	0.6801	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3700	0.4580	0.4272	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5350	0.5349	0.5349	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7930	0.8550	0.8333	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.321

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.6
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260505_OAK@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	669016
playerID	669016
playerName	Brandon Marsh
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	PHI
teamID	21

Adolis García (666969) · BATTER · RF · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 34

All-history rows before 20260506: 34

System season_avg: 0.2320

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2320

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.147	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.147	0.000	-0.147	0.000
predicted_3B	0.029	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_AB	3.676	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.676	3.000	0.324	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.237	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.232	0.000	0.018	0.250
predicted_BB	0.353	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.353	1.000	-0.353	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.840	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.853	0.000	0.147	1.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.295	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.305	0.200	-0.055	0.050
predicted_R	0.265	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.265	0.000	0.735	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.324	1.000	-0.324	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.284	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.336	0.000	-0.086	0.250
predicted_SO	1.059	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.059	1.000	0.941	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.147	-
predicted_3B	0.029	-
predicted_AB	3.676	-
predicted_AVG	0.237	-
predicted_BB	0.353	-
predicted_H	0.840	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.295	-
predicted_R	0.265	-
predicted_RBI	0.500	-
predicted_SLG	0.284	-
predicted_SO	1.059	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.093	-0.054
predicted_3B	0.036	0.007
predicted_AB	3.786	0.110
predicted_AVG	0.237	0.000
predicted_BB	0.356	0.003
predicted_H	0.887	0.047
predicted_HBP	0.012	-
predicted_HR	0.011	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.295	0.000
predicted_R	0.253	-0.012
predicted_RBI	0.528	0.028
predicted_SLG	0.284	0.000
predicted_SO	0.949	-0.110

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.234 HR/AB=0.003

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, BvP AVG=0.125)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	0.2105	0.2727	0.2105	0.2105	0.0000	0.1579	0.1053	0.2105
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	11.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	6.000	3.000	3.000	9.000	0.2750	0.3182	0.3500	0.2750	0.0000	0.1500	0.0750	0.2250
season	0.20	34	-	125.000	29.000	5.000	1.000	2.000	11.000	9.000	12.000	36.000	0.2320	0.3050	0.3360	0.2320	0.0160	0.0880	0.0960	0.2880

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0640
predicted_3B	0.0400
predicted_AB	3.8450
predicted_AVG	0.2374
predicted_BB	0.3570
predicted_H	0.9130
predicted_HBP	0.0120
predicted_HR	0.0120
predicted_OBP	0.2951
predicted_R	0.2470
predicted_RBI	0.5430
predicted_SLG	0.2844
predicted_SO	0.8890

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1470	0.0640	0.0930	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0290	0.0400	0.0362	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6760	3.8450	3.7859	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2370	0.2374	0.2373	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3530	0.3570	0.3556	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8400	0.9130	0.8875	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0120	0.0120	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0120	0.0113	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2950	0.2951	0.2951	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2650	0.2470	0.2533	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5000	0.5430	0.5280	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2840	0.2844	0.2843	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0590	0.8890	0.9485	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.232

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260505_OAK@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	666969
playerID	666969
playerName	Adolis García
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	PHI
teamID	21

Felix Reyes (694025) · BATTER · LF · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 8

All-history rows before 20260506: 8

System season_avg: 0.1430

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1429

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.125	1.000	-0.125	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.500	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	4.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.105	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.143	0.250	0.107	0.000
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.300	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.500	1.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.105	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.143	0.250	0.107	0.000
predicted_R	0.250	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.250	0.000	0.750	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.210	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.286	0.500	-0.036	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.875	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.875	3.000	1.125	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.105	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.300	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.105	-
predicted_R	0.250	-
predicted_RBI	0.060	-
predicted_SLG	0.210	-
predicted_SO	0.875	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.147	0.022
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.471	-0.029
predicted_AVG	0.105	0.000
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.341	0.041
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.065	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.105	0.000
predicted_R	0.176	-0.074
predicted_RBI	0.065	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.210	0.000
predicted_SO	0.912	0.037

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.097 HR/AB=0.019

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	5.000	0.0588	0.0588	0.1176	0.0588	0.0000	0.0000	0.2941
last_10	0.35	8	-	28.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	0.1429	0.1429	0.2857	0.1429	0.0357	0.0357	0.2500
season	0.20	8	-	28.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	0.1429	0.1429	0.2857	0.1429	0.0357	0.0357	0.2500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1590
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.4550
predicted_AVG	0.1051
predicted_BB	0.0000
predicted_H	0.3630
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0680
predicted_OBP	0.1051
predicted_R	0.1360
predicted_RBI	0.0680
predicted_SLG	0.2101
predicted_SO	0.9320

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1250	0.1590	0.1471	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5000	3.4550	3.4707	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1050	0.1051	0.1051	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3000	0.3630	0.3409	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0680	0.0652	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1050	0.1051	0.1051	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2500	0.1360	0.1759	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0600	0.0680	0.0652	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2100	0.2101	0.2101	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8750	0.9320	0.9121	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.143

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260503_PHI@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	694025
playerID	694025
playerName	Felix Reyes
pos	OF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	PHI
teamID	21

Alec Bohm (664761) · BATTER · 3B · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 33

All-history rows before 20260506: 33

System season_avg: 0.1630

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1626

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.091	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.727	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.727	3.000	-0.727	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.197	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.163	0.333	-0.163	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.303	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.303	1.000	0.697	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.610	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.606	1.000	-0.606	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.265	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.232	0.500	0.018	-0.250
predicted_R	0.212	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.212	0.000	-0.212	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.455	0.000	-0.455	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.216	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.211	0.333	-0.211	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.636	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.636	0.000	-0.636	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.091	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.727	-
predicted_AVG	0.197	-
predicted_BB	0.303	-
predicted_H	0.610	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.265	-
predicted_R	0.212	-
predicted_RBI	0.350	-
predicted_SLG	0.216	-
predicted_SO	0.636	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.066	-0.025
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.706	-0.021
predicted_AVG	0.197	0.000
predicted_BB	0.332	0.029
predicted_H	0.687	0.077
predicted_HBP	0.012	-
predicted_HR	0.007	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.265	-0.000
predicted_R	0.183	-0.029
predicted_RBI	0.390	0.040
predicted_SLG	0.216	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.557	-0.079

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.73), rates preserved: AVG=0.184 HR/AB=0.002

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	0.2222	0.3000	0.2222	0.2222	0.0000	0.1111	0.1111	0.1111
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	0.1842	0.2381	0.2105	0.1842	0.0000	0.1053	0.0790	0.1579
season	0.20	33	-	123.000	20.000	3.000	1.000	15.000	7.000	10.000	21.000	0.1626	0.2319	0.2114	0.1626	0.0081	0.1220	0.0813	0.1707

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0520
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.6950
predicted_AVG	0.1970
predicted_BB	0.3470
predicted_H	0.7280
predicted_HBP	0.0120
predicted_HR	0.0060
predicted_OBP	0.2647
predicted_R	0.1680
predicted_RBI	0.4110
predicted_SLG	0.2159
predicted_SO	0.5150

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0910	0.0520	0.0656	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7270	3.6950	3.7062	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1970	0.1970	0.1970	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3030	0.3470	0.3316	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6100	0.7280	0.6867	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0120	0.0120	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0060	0.0074	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2650	0.2647	0.2648	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2120	0.1680	0.1834	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3500	0.4110	0.3896	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2160	0.2159	0.2159	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6360	0.5150	0.5574	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.163

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260505_OAK@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	664761
playerID	664761
playerName	Alec Bohm
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	PHI
teamID	21

J.T. Realmuto (592663) · BATTER · C · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 19

All-history rows before 20260506: 19

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.158	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.158	1.000	0.842	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.368	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.368	4.000	0.632	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.196	0.750	0.750	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.250	0.500	0.500
predicted_BB	0.263	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.263	0.000	-0.263	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.580	3.000	3.000	Hitting_H	0.842	1.000	2.158	2.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.210	0.750	0.750	Hitting_OBP	0.319	0.250	0.431	0.500
predicted_R	0.368	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.368	1.000	0.632	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.490	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.368	2.000	-0.368	-2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.253	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SLG	0.344	0.500	0.656	0.500
predicted_SO	0.632	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.632	0.000	-0.632	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.158	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.368	-
predicted_AVG	0.196	-
predicted_BB	0.263	-
predicted_H	0.580	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.210	-
predicted_R	0.368	-
predicted_RBI	0.490	-
predicted_SLG	0.253	-
predicted_SO	0.632	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.159	0.001
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.349	-0.019
predicted_AVG	0.196	0.000
predicted_BB	0.126	-0.137
predicted_H	0.629	0.049
predicted_HBP	0.021	-
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.210	0.000
predicted_R	0.363	-0.005
predicted_RBI	0.532	0.042
predicted_SLG	0.253	0.000
predicted_SO	0.472	-0.160

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.37), rates preserved: AVG=0.187 HR/AB=0.003

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	0.1250	0.1250	0.1875	0.1250	0.0000	0.1875	0.0000	0.0625
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	9.000	1.000	0.000	6.000	3.000	0.000	5.000	0.2571	0.2571	0.2857	0.2571	0.0000	0.1714	0.0000	0.1429
season	0.20	19	-	64.000	16.000	3.000	1.000	7.000	7.000	5.000	12.000	0.2500	0.3194	0.3438	0.2500	0.0156	0.1094	0.0781	0.1875

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1590
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.3390
predicted_AVG	0.1962
predicted_BB	0.0520
predicted_H	0.6550
predicted_HBP	0.0210
predicted_HR	0.0100
predicted_OBP	0.2101
predicted_R	0.3610
predicted_RBI	0.5550
predicted_SLG	0.2531
predicted_SO	0.3860

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1580	0.1590	0.1587	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3680	3.3390	3.3491	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1960	0.1962	0.1961	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2630	0.0520	0.1258	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5800	0.6550	0.6288	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0210	0.0210	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0100	0.0100	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2100	0.2101	0.2101	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3680	0.3610	0.3634	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4900	0.5550	0.5323	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2530	0.2531	0.2531	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6320	0.3860	0.4721	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	3
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260505_OAK@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	592663
playerID	592663
playerName	J.T. Realmuto
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	PHI
teamID	21

Zack Wheeler (554430) · PITCHER · Starter · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 2

All-history rows before 20260506: 2

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.500	1.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_IP	5.000	5.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.500	6.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	-	Pitching_SO	7.000	8.000	-3.000	-4.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 5.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	2	11.000	3.000	6.000	5.000	14.000	2.4545	1.0000	0.2727	0.5454	0.4546	1.2727
last_10	0.35	2	11.000	3.000	6.000	5.000	14.000	2.4545	1.0000	0.2727	0.5454	0.4546	1.2727
season	0.20	2	11.000	3.000	6.000	5.000	14.000	2.4545	1.0000	0.2727	0.5454	0.4546	1.2727

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.5000
predicted_ER	1.5000
predicted_ERA	2.4545
predicted_H	3.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	5.5000
predicted_SO	7.0000
predicted_WHIP	1.0000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	2.5000	1.9750	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	1.5000	1.3250	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.4545	2.4545	form_only
predicted_H	5.0000	3.0000	3.7000	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0000	0.3500	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.0000	5.5000	5.3250	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	4.0000	7.0000	5.9500	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0000	1.0000	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.0
H	5
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	4
HR	1
BF	21
Pitches	81

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	23
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	2.45
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	5
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	94
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	8
Pitching_Strikes	60
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260501_PHI@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	554430
playerID	554430
playerName	Zack Wheeler
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	PHI
teamID	21

Brad Keller (641745) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 15

All-history rows before 20260506: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.467	0.000	-0.467	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.900	1.000	0.100	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.333	3.000	4.000	1.000	6.000	1.000	5.0625	0.9375	0.5625	0.7500	0.1875	1.1250	0.1875
last_10	0.35	10	9.667	4.000	7.000	3.000	11.000	1.000	3.7241	1.0345	0.4138	0.7241	0.3103	1.1379	0.1035
season	0.20	15	14.667	7.000	12.000	4.000	15.000	2.000	4.2955	1.0909	0.4773	0.8182	0.2727	1.0227	0.1364

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2510
predicted_ER	0.5000
predicted_ERA	4.4407
predicted_H	0.7650
predicted_HR	0.1500
predicted_IP	1.0140
predicted_SO	1.1250
predicted_WHIP	1.0021

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2510	0.1632	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5000	0.3250	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.4407	4.4407	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7650	0.4973	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1500	0.0975	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0140	1.0091	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1250	1.0813	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0021	1.0021	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.30
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	10
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_PHI@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	641745
playerID	641745
playerName	Brad Keller
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PHI
teamID	21

José Alvarado (621237) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 16

All-history rows before 20260506: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.569	1.000	0.431	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.875	1.000	0.125	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.333	0.000	6.000	2.000	4.000	0.0000	1.8462	0.0000	1.3846	0.4615	0.9231
last_10	0.35	10	7.333	3.000	11.000	3.000	7.000	3.6818	1.9091	0.4091	1.5000	0.4091	0.9546
season	0.20	16	11.667	8.000	18.000	6.000	14.000	6.1714	2.0571	0.6857	1.5429	0.5143	1.2000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3600
predicted_ER	0.2220
predicted_ERA	2.5229
predicted_H	1.1540
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	0.7930
predicted_SO	0.7840
predicted_WHIP	1.9104

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3600	0.2340	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.2220	0.4943	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.5229	2.5229	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.1540	1.1001	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.7930	0.8655	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.7840	0.8596	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.9104	1.9104	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	6.17
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	8
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	6
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_PHI@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	621237
playerID	621237
playerName	José Alvarado
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PHI
teamID	21

Orion Kerkering (689147) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 13

All-history rows before 20260506: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.231	0.000	-0.231
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.885	1.000	0.115
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.692	0.000	-0.692

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.000	0.0000	0.6000	0.0000	0.4000	0.2000	0.8000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.667	1.000	6.000	5.000	8.000	1.000	0.9310	1.1379	0.1035	0.6207	0.5172	0.8276	0.1035
season	0.20	13	12.667	3.000	9.000	6.000	9.000	1.000	2.1316	1.1842	0.2368	0.7105	0.4737	0.7105	0.0790

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3600
predicted_ER	0.0820
predicted_ERA	0.7522
predicted_H	0.5300
predicted_HR	0.0510
predicted_IP	0.9830
predicted_SO	0.7780
predicted_WHIP	0.9051

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3600	0.5840	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.0820	0.0533	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.7522	0.7522	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.5300	0.3445	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0510	0.0331	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.9830	0.9889	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.7780	0.5057	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9051	0.9051	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.13
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	9
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	6
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_PHI@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	689147
playerID	689147
playerName	Orion Kerkering
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PHI
teamID	21

Tim Mayza (641835) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 15

All-history rows before 20260506: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.467	0.000	-0.467	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.153	2.000	-0.153	-1.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.200	2.000	-0.200	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	3.000	6.000	3.000	6.000	2.000	4.5000	1.5000	0.5000	1.0000	0.5000	1.0000	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	11.000	7.000	11.000	6.000	10.000	2.000	5.7273	1.5455	0.6364	1.0000	0.5454	0.9091	0.1818
season	0.20	15	18.000	7.000	12.000	7.000	18.000	2.000	3.5000	1.0556	0.3889	0.6667	0.3889	1.0000	0.1111

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5750
predicted_ER	0.6120
predicted_ERA	4.7296
predicted_H	1.0870
predicted_HR	0.2750
predicted_IP	1.1650
predicted_SO	1.1280
predicted_WHIP	1.4270

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.5750	0.7237	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.6120	0.3978	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.7296	4.7296	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.0870	0.7066	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2750	0.1788	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.1650	1.1073	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1280	1.0832	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4270	1.4270	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	9
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.50
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	33
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	19
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260430_SF@PHI_2
game_type	full
mlbID	641835
playerID	641835
playerName	Tim Mayza
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	PHI
teamID	21

20260506_PIT@ARI

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 8, "home_runs": 4, "confidence": 0.7586367030641648, "home_win_probability": 0.24136329693583525, "away_win_probability": 0.7586367030641648, "predicted_score_text": "PIT 8 - 4 ARI", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to final winner probability with starter-quality caps.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 3, "predicted_score_text": "PIT 7 - 3 ARI", "confidence": 0.7586367030641648, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score", "final_prediction_synced": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "PIT 7 - 3 ARI", "winner": "PIT"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 8, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "PIT 8 - 4 ARI", "winner": "PIT"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 1, "home_run_delta": 1, "total_run_delta": 2, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"}}

Away Team: PIT

Brandon Lowe (664040) · BATTER · 2B · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 30

All-history rows before 20260506: 30

System season_avg: 0.2430

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2435

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.267	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.267	0.000	0.733	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.833	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.833	3.000	0.167	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.231	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.243	0.000	0.257	0.500
predicted_BB	0.633	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.633	1.000	-0.633	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.850	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.933	0.000	1.067	2.000
predicted_HR	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.267	0.000	-0.267	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.392	0.600	0.600	Hitting_OBP	0.356	0.250	0.244	0.350
predicted_R	0.633	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.633	0.000	0.367	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	0.700	0.000	1.300	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.497	0.750	0.750	Hitting_SLG	0.522	0.000	0.228	0.750
predicted_SO	1.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.267	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.833	-
predicted_AVG	0.231	-
predicted_BB	0.633	-
predicted_H	0.850	-
predicted_HR	0.190	-
predicted_OBP	0.392	-
predicted_R	0.633	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.497	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.339	0.072
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.572	-0.261
predicted_AVG	0.231	0.000
predicted_BB	0.828	0.195
predicted_H	0.813	-0.037
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.183	-0.007
predicted_OBP	0.392	0.000
predicted_R	0.680	0.047
predicted_RBI	0.395	-0.015
predicted_SLG	0.497	0.000
predicted_SO	0.793	-0.207

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.83), rates preserved: AVG=0.212 HR/AB=0.048

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.833

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	6.000	2.000	0.2500	0.4545	0.5625	0.2500	0.0625	0.1250	0.3750	0.1250
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	7.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	7.000	9.000	0.2000	0.3333	0.4000	0.2000	0.0286	0.0571	0.2000	0.2571
season	0.20	30	-	115.000	28.000	8.000	8.000	21.000	19.000	19.000	30.000	0.2435	0.3556	0.5217	0.2435	0.0696	0.1826	0.1652	0.2609

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3780
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.4320
predicted_AVG	0.2312
predicted_BB	0.9330
predicted_H	0.7930
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.1790
predicted_OBP	0.3923
predicted_R	0.7050
predicted_RBI	0.3870
predicted_SLG	0.4975
predicted_SO	0.6810

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2670	0.3780	0.3392	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8330	3.4320	3.5724	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2310	0.2312	0.2311	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6330	0.9330	0.8280	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8500	0.7930	0.8130	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1900	0.1790	0.1828	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3920	0.3923	0.3922	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6330	0.7050	0.6798	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.3870	0.3951	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4970	0.4975	0.4973	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.6810	0.7927	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.243

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260503_CIN@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	664040
playerID	664040
playerName	Brandon Lowe
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	PIT
teamID	22

Bryan Reynolds (668804) · BATTER · LF · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 35

All-history rows before 20260506: 35

System season_avg: 0.2560

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2560

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_3B	0.057	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.057	0.000	-0.057	0.000
predicted_AB	3.571	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.571	3.000	0.429	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.305	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.256	0.000	0.244	0.500
predicted_BB	0.857	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.857	1.000	0.143	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.050	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.914	0.000	1.086	2.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.114	0.000	-0.114	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.479	0.600	0.600	Hitting_OBP	0.405	0.250	0.195	0.350
predicted_R	0.743	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.743	0.000	0.257	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.800	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	0.629	0.000	1.371	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.636	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.424	0.000	0.076	0.500
predicted_SO	1.200	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.200	1.000	-0.200	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.057	-
predicted_AB	3.571	-
predicted_AVG	0.305	-
predicted_BB	0.857	-
predicted_H	1.050	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.479	-
predicted_R	0.743	-
predicted_RBI	0.800	-
predicted_SLG	0.636	-
predicted_SO	1.200	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.313	0.170
predicted_3B	0.109	0.052
predicted_AB	3.459	-0.112
predicted_AVG	0.305	0.000
predicted_BB	1.015	0.158
predicted_H	1.042	-0.008
predicted_HBP	0.047	-
predicted_HR	0.149	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.479	0.000
predicted_R	0.937	0.194
predicted_RBI	0.791	-0.009
predicted_SLG	0.636	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.201	0.001

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.57), rates preserved: AVG=0.292 HR/AB=0.042

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	6.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	6.000	6.000	6.000	0.3529	0.5217	0.8235	0.3529	0.0588	0.2941	0.3529	0.3529
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	9.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	10.000	11.000	12.000	0.2727	0.4667	0.5152	0.2727	0.0303	0.1818	0.3333	0.3636
season	0.20	35	-	125.000	32.000	5.000	2.000	4.000	22.000	26.000	30.000	42.000	0.2560	0.4051	0.4240	0.2560	0.0320	0.1760	0.2400	0.3360

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.4050
predicted_3B	0.1370
predicted_AB	3.3990
predicted_AVG	0.3054
predicted_BB	1.1000
predicted_H	1.0380
predicted_HBP	0.0470
predicted_HR	0.1480
predicted_OBP	0.4791
predicted_R	1.0420
predicted_RBI	0.7860
predicted_SLG	0.6357
predicted_SO	1.2010

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.4050	0.3133	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0570	0.1370	0.1090	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5710	3.3990	3.4592	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3050	0.3054	0.3053	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.8570	1.1000	1.0150	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0500	1.0380	1.0422	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0470	0.0470	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1480	0.1487	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4790	0.4791	0.4791	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7430	1.0420	0.9374	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.8000	0.7860	0.7909	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6360	0.6357	0.6358	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2000	1.2010	1.2006	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.256

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260505_PIT@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	668804
playerID	668804
playerName	Bryan Reynolds
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	PIT
teamID	22

Ryan O'Hearn (656811) · BATTER · RF · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 33

All-history rows before 20260506: 33

System season_avg: 0.3010

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3008

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.152	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.152	0.000	-0.152	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.727	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.727	3.000	0.273	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.236	0.750	0.750	Hitting_AVG	0.301	0.000	0.449	0.750
predicted_BB	0.485	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.485	0.000	-0.485	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.850	3.000	3.000	Hitting_H	1.121	0.000	1.879	3.000
predicted_HR	0.060	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.152	0.000	0.848	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.310	0.600	0.600	Hitting_OBP	0.380	0.000	0.220	0.600
predicted_R	0.606	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.606	0.000	0.394	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.740	4.000	4.000	Hitting_RBI	0.727	0.000	3.273	4.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.328	1.500	1.500	Hitting_SLG	0.463	0.000	1.037	1.500
predicted_SO	0.848	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.848	1.000	0.152	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.152	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.727	-
predicted_AVG	0.236	-
predicted_BB	0.485	-
predicted_H	0.850	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.310	-
predicted_R	0.606	-
predicted_RBI	0.740	-
predicted_SLG	0.328	-
predicted_SO	0.848	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.155	0.003
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.787	0.060
predicted_AVG	0.236	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.419	-0.066
predicted_H	0.882	0.032
predicted_HBP	0.040	-
predicted_HR	0.063	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.310	0.000
predicted_R	0.684	0.078
predicted_RBI	0.769	0.029
predicted_SLG	0.328	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.030	0.182

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.233 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	4.000	3.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	1.000	1.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	4.000	2.000	6.000	0.2105	0.2857	0.2632	0.2105	0.0000	0.2105	0.1053	0.3158
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	9.000	1.000	1.000	8.000	7.000	3.000	12.000	0.2308	0.3023	0.3333	0.2308	0.0256	0.2051	0.0769	0.3077
season	0.20	33	-	123.000	37.000	5.000	5.000	24.000	20.000	16.000	28.000	0.3008	0.3803	0.4634	0.3008	0.0406	0.1951	0.1301	0.2276

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1560
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.8200
predicted_AVG	0.2357
predicted_BB	0.3830
predicted_H	0.9000
predicted_HBP	0.0400
predicted_HR	0.0650
predicted_OBP	0.3104
predicted_R	0.7260
predicted_RBI	0.7850
predicted_SLG	0.3278
predicted_SO	1.1280

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1520	0.1560	0.1546	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7270	3.8200	3.7874	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2360	0.2357	0.2358	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4850	0.3830	0.4187	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8500	0.9000	0.8825	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0400	0.0400	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0650	0.0633	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3100	0.3104	0.3103	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6060	0.7260	0.6840	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7400	0.7850	0.7693	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3280	0.3278	0.3279	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8480	1.1280	1.0300	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	3
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	4
BB	0
SO	1
SF	1
HBP	0
season_avg	0.301

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260505_PIT@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	656811
playerID	656811
playerName	Ryan O'Hearn
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	PIT
teamID	22

Nick Gonzales (693304) · BATTER · 3B · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 30

All-history rows before 20260506: 30

System season_avg: 0.3220

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3220

Diff (system - data): -0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.933	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.933	4.000	1.067	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.324	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.322	0.000	-0.322	0.000
predicted_BB	0.233	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.233	0.000	-0.233	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.033	0.000	-0.033	0.000
predicted_H	1.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.267	0.000	-1.267	0.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.417	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.370	0.000	-0.370	0.000
predicted_R	0.467	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.467	0.000	0.533	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.460	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.567	0.000	-0.567	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.364	0.000	-0.364	0.000
predicted_SO	0.800	3.000	3.000	Hitting_SO	0.800	1.000	2.200	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.933	-
predicted_AVG	0.324	-
predicted_BB	0.233	-
predicted_H	1.200	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.417	-
predicted_R	0.467	-
predicted_RBI	0.460	-
predicted_SLG	0.350	-
predicted_SO	0.800	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.123	-0.044
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.828	-0.105
predicted_AVG	0.324	0.000
predicted_BB	0.383	0.149
predicted_H	1.214	0.014
predicted_HBP	0.141	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.417	0.000
predicted_R	0.454	-0.013
predicted_RBI	0.465	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.350	0.000
predicted_SO	0.762	-0.038

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.93), rates preserved: AVG=0.309 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.933

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	5.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	0.2778	0.4091	0.2778	0.2778	0.1111	0.1667	0.1667
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	15.000	2.000	5.000	5.000	4.000	9.000	0.3846	0.4545	0.4359	0.3846	0.1282	0.1026	0.2308
season	0.20	30	-	118.000	38.000	5.000	17.000	14.000	7.000	24.000	0.3220	0.3701	0.3644	0.3220	0.1441	0.0593	0.2034

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7720
predicted_AVG	0.3240
predicted_BB	0.4630
predicted_H	1.2220
predicted_HBP	0.1410
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.4172
predicted_R	0.4470
predicted_RBI	0.4670
predicted_SLG	0.3505
predicted_SO	0.7410

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.1000	0.1235	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9330	3.7720	3.8283	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3240	0.3240	0.3240	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2330	0.4630	0.3825	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2000	1.2220	1.2143	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1410	0.1410	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4170	0.4172	0.4171	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4670	0.4470	0.4540	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4600	0.4670	0.4646	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3500	0.3505	0.3503	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8000	0.7410	0.7616	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.322

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260505_PIT@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	693304
playerID	693304
playerName	Nick Gonzales
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	PIT
teamID	22

Marcell Ozuna (542303) · BATTER · DH · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 28

All-history rows before 20260506: 28

System season_avg: 0.1860

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1858

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.107	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.107	0.000	-0.107	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.036	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	4.036	3.000	0.964	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.242	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.186	0.000	-0.186	0.000
predicted_BB	0.321	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.321	1.000	-0.321	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.850	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.750	0.000	-0.750	0.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.107	0.000	-0.107	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.322	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.252	0.250	-0.252	-0.250
predicted_R	0.357	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.357	0.000	-0.357	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.660	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.464	0.000	-0.464	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.388	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.292	0.000	-0.292	0.000
predicted_SO	1.143	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.143	1.000	0.857	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.107	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.036	-
predicted_AVG	0.242	-
predicted_BB	0.321	-
predicted_H	0.850	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.322	-
predicted_R	0.357	-
predicted_RBI	0.660	-
predicted_SLG	0.388	-
predicted_SO	1.143	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.133	0.026
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.017	-0.019
predicted_AVG	0.242	0.000
predicted_BB	0.398	0.077
predicted_H	0.928	0.078
predicted_HBP	0.042	-
predicted_HR	0.141	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.322	-0.000
predicted_R	0.497	0.140
predicted_RBI	0.721	0.060
predicted_SLG	0.388	0.000
predicted_SO	1.114	-0.029

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.04), rates preserved: AVG=0.230 HR/AB=0.035

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=11.0, BvP AVG=0.273)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 4.036

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	4.000	3.000	5.000	0.3000	0.3913	0.5000	0.3000	0.0500	0.2500	0.1500	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	4.000	3.000	12.000	0.2000	0.2727	0.3000	0.2000	0.0250	0.1500	0.0750	0.3000
season	0.20	28	-	113.000	21.000	3.000	3.000	13.000	10.000	9.000	32.000	0.1858	0.2520	0.2920	0.1858	0.0266	0.1150	0.0796	0.2832

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1470
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.0070
predicted_AVG	0.2422
predicted_BB	0.4400
predicted_H	0.9700
predicted_HBP	0.0420
predicted_HR	0.1470
predicted_OBP	0.3219
predicted_R	0.5720
predicted_RBI	0.7530
predicted_SLG	0.3884
predicted_SO	1.0990

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1070	0.1470	0.1330	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0360	4.0070	4.0171	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2420	0.2422	0.2421	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3210	0.4400	0.3984	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8500	0.9700	0.9280	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0420	0.0420	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1470	0.1411	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3220	0.3219	0.3219	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3570	0.5720	0.4967	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6600	0.7530	0.7205	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3880	0.3884	0.3883	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1430	1.0990	1.1144	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.186

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260505_PIT@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	542303
playerID	542303
playerName	Marcell Ozuna
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	PIT
teamID	22

Konnor Griffin (804606) · BATTER · SS · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 28

All-history rows before 20260506: 28

System season_avg: 0.2690

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2692

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.179	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.179	1.000	-0.179	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.071	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_AB	3.714	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.714	2.000	0.286	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.384	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.269	0.500	-0.019	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.321	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.321	1.000	-0.321	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.180	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.461	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.339	0.667	-0.089	-0.417
predicted_R	0.464	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.464	0.000	0.536	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.470	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.536	0.000	-0.536	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.618	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.413	1.000	-0.163	-0.750
predicted_SO	1.107	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.107	1.000	-1.107	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.179	-
predicted_3B	0.071	-
predicted_AB	3.714	-
predicted_AVG	0.384	-
predicted_BB	0.321	-
predicted_H	1.180	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.461	-
predicted_R	0.464	-
predicted_RBI	0.470	-
predicted_SLG	0.618	-
predicted_SO	1.107	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.330	0.151
predicted_3B	0.115	0.044
predicted_AB	3.632	-0.082
predicted_AVG	0.384	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.445	0.123
predicted_H	1.308	0.128
predicted_HBP	0.014	-
predicted_HR	0.046	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.461	0.000
predicted_R	0.512	0.048
predicted_RBI	0.523	0.053
predicted_SLG	0.618	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.993	-0.114

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.352 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	8.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	0.4444	0.5238	0.7222	0.4444	0.0000	0.1667	0.1667	0.2222
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	13.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	5.000	5.000	10.000	0.3714	0.4500	0.6000	0.3714	0.0286	0.1429	0.1429	0.2857
season	0.20	28	-	104.000	28.000	5.000	2.000	2.000	15.000	13.000	9.000	31.000	0.2692	0.3391	0.4135	0.2692	0.0192	0.1442	0.0865	0.2981

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.4110
predicted_3B	0.1390
predicted_AB	3.5880
predicted_AVG	0.3838
predicted_BB	0.5110
predicted_H	1.3770
predicted_HBP	0.0140
predicted_HR	0.0500
predicted_OBP	0.4610
predicted_R	0.5380
predicted_RBI	0.5520
predicted_SLG	0.6177
predicted_SO	0.9310

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1790	0.4110	0.3298	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0710	0.1390	0.1152	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7140	3.5880	3.6321	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3840	0.3838	0.3839	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3210	0.5110	0.4445	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1800	1.3770	1.3080	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0140	0.0140	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0500	0.0465	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4610	0.4610	0.4610	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4640	0.5380	0.5121	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4700	0.5520	0.5233	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6180	0.6177	0.6178	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1070	0.9310	0.9926	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.269

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260505_PIT@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	804606
playerID	804606
playerName	Konnor Griffin
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	PIT
teamID	22

Spencer Horwitz (687462) · BATTER · 1B · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 28

All-history rows before 20260506: 28

System season_avg: 0.2440

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2444

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.107	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.107	0.000	-0.107	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.214	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.214	3.000	-0.214	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.198	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.244	0.000	-0.244	0.000
predicted_BB	0.643	2.000	2.000	Hitting_BB	0.643	0.000	1.357	2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.540	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.786	0.000	-0.786	0.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.351	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.369	0.000	0.031	0.400
predicted_R	0.321	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.321	0.000	0.679	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.650	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.429	0.000	-0.429	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.364	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.344	0.000	-0.344	0.000
predicted_SO	0.464	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.464	0.000	-0.464	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.107	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.214	-
predicted_AVG	0.198	-
predicted_BB	0.643	-
predicted_H	0.540	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.351	-
predicted_R	0.321	-
predicted_RBI	0.650	-
predicted_SLG	0.364	-
predicted_SO	0.464	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.133	0.026
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.334	0.120
predicted_AVG	0.198	0.000
predicted_BB	0.760	0.117
predicted_H	0.627	0.087
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.129	0.019
predicted_OBP	0.351	0.000
predicted_R	0.259	-0.062
predicted_RBI	0.755	0.105
predicted_SLG	0.364	0.000
predicted_SO	0.248	-0.216

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.33), rates preserved: AVG=0.188 HR/AB=0.039

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	2.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	1.000	5.000	0.000	0.1765	0.3636	0.4118	0.1765	0.0588	0.2941	0.2941	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	8.000	2.000	7.000	1.000	0.2000	0.3256	0.3143	0.2000	0.0286	0.2286	0.2000	0.0286
season	0.20	28	-	90.000	22.000	3.000	2.000	12.000	9.000	18.000	13.000	0.2444	0.3694	0.3444	0.2444	0.0222	0.1333	0.2000	0.1444

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1470
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.3980
predicted_AVG	0.1983
predicted_BB	0.8230
predicted_H	0.6740
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.1390
predicted_OBP	0.3515
predicted_R	0.2260
predicted_RBI	0.8120
predicted_SLG	0.3642
predicted_SO	0.1320

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1070	0.1470	0.1330	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2140	3.3980	3.3336	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1980	0.1983	0.1982	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6430	0.8230	0.7600	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5400	0.6740	0.6271	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1390	0.1289	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3510	0.3515	0.3513	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3210	0.2260	0.2592	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6500	0.8120	0.7553	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3640	0.3642	0.3641	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4640	0.1320	0.2482	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.244

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260503_CIN@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	687462
playerID	687462
playerName	Spencer Horwitz
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	PIT
teamID	22

Henry Davis (680779) · BATTER · C · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 22

All-history rows before 20260506: 22

System season_avg: 0.1620

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1622

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.136	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.136	0.000	-0.136	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.364	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.364	6.000	-0.364	-3.000
predicted_AVG	0.147	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.162	0.000	-0.162	0.000
predicted_BB	0.273	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.273	0.000	0.727	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.410	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.545	0.000	-0.545	0.000
predicted_HR	0.210	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.200	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.244	0.000	0.006	0.250
predicted_R	0.455	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.455	0.000	0.545	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.318	1.000	-0.318	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.045	0.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.382	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.284	0.000	-0.284	0.000
predicted_SO	0.727	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.727	1.000	0.273	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.136	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.364	-
predicted_AVG	0.147	-
predicted_BB	0.273	-
predicted_H	0.410	-
predicted_HR	0.210	-
predicted_OBP	0.200	-
predicted_R	0.455	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.382	-
predicted_SO	0.727	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.067	-0.070
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.464	0.100
predicted_AVG	0.147	0.000
predicted_BB	0.235	-0.038
predicted_H	0.481	0.071
predicted_HBP	0.019	-
predicted_HR	0.246	0.036
predicted_OBP	0.200	0.000
predicted_R	0.507	0.052
predicted_RBI	0.517	0.077
predicted_SLG	0.382	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.799	0.072

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.46), rates preserved: AVG=0.139 HR/AB=0.071

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	0.1667	0.2105	0.5000	0.1667	0.1111	0.2222	0.0556	0.2778
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	4.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	5.000	2.000	7.000	0.1143	0.1622	0.2857	0.1143	0.0571	0.1143	0.0571	0.2000
season	0.20	22	-	74.000	12.000	3.000	2.000	7.000	10.000	6.000	16.000	0.1622	0.2439	0.2838	0.1622	0.0270	0.0946	0.0811	0.2162

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0290
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.5180
predicted_AVG	0.1475
predicted_BB	0.2150
predicted_H	0.5190
predicted_HBP	0.0190
predicted_HR	0.2650
predicted_OBP	0.2003
predicted_R	0.5350
predicted_RBI	0.5590
predicted_SLG	0.3818
predicted_SO	0.8380

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1360	0.0290	0.0665	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3640	3.5180	3.4641	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1470	0.1475	0.1473	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2730	0.2150	0.2353	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4100	0.5190	0.4808	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0190	0.0190	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2100	0.2650	0.2458	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2000	0.2003	0.2002	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4550	0.5350	0.5070	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.5590	0.5174	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3820	0.3818	0.3819	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7270	0.8380	0.7991	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.162

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	6
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260502_CIN@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	680779
playerID	680779
playerName	Henry Davis
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	PIT
teamID	22

Oneil Cruz (665833) · BATTER · CF · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 33

All-history rows before 20260506: 33

System season_avg: 0.2590

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2587

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.333	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	4.333	4.000	-1.333	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.238	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.259	0.000	0.075	0.333
predicted_BB	0.333	2.000	2.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	1.667	2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.061	0.000	-0.061	0.000
predicted_H	1.030	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.121	0.000	-0.121	1.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.273	0.000	-0.273	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.275	0.600	0.600	Hitting_OBP	0.316	0.000	0.284	0.600
predicted_R	0.758	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.758	0.000	0.242	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.540	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.848	0.000	-0.848	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.357	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.490	0.000	-0.156	0.333
predicted_SO	1.606	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.606	1.000	-0.606	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.333	-
predicted_AVG	0.238	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	1.030	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.275	-
predicted_R	0.758	-
predicted_RBI	0.540	-
predicted_SLG	0.357	-
predicted_SO	1.606	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.169	-0.013
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.472	0.139
predicted_AVG	0.238	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.265	-0.068
predicted_H	1.062	0.032
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.124	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.275	-0.000
predicted_R	0.757	-0.001
predicted_RBI	0.556	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.357	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.648	0.042

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.47), rates preserved: AVG=0.238 HR/AB=0.028

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	2.000	2.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 4.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	23.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	8.000	0.2609	0.2917	0.3043	0.2609	0.0000	0.0870	0.0435	0.3478
last_10	0.35	10	-	46.000	9.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	7.000	2.000	18.000	0.1957	0.2292	0.3478	0.1956	0.0435	0.1304	0.0435	0.3913
season	0.20	33	-	143.000	37.000	6.000	9.000	28.000	25.000	11.000	53.000	0.2587	0.3161	0.4895	0.2587	0.0629	0.1958	0.0769	0.3706

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1620
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.5470
predicted_AVG	0.2376
predicted_BB	0.2280
predicted_H	1.0800
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.1260
predicted_OBP	0.2747
predicted_R	0.7570
predicted_RBI	0.5640
predicted_SLG	0.3566
predicted_SO	1.6710

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1820	0.1620	0.1690	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.3330	4.5470	4.4721	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2380	0.2376	0.2377	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.2280	0.2647	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0300	1.0800	1.0625	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1260	0.1239	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2750	0.2747	0.2748	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7580	0.7570	0.7573	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5400	0.5640	0.5556	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3570	0.3566	0.3567	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.6060	1.6710	1.6483	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.259

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260505_PIT@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	665833
playerID	665833
playerName	Oneil Cruz
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	PIT
teamID	22

Paul Skenes (694973) · PITCHER · Starter · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 7

All-history rows before 20260506: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.714	4.000	0.286	-2.000
predicted_IP	5.000	5.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.757	5.000	0.243	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	5.571	9.000	-3.571	-7.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 5.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	28.333	6.000	15.000	3.000	33.000	4.000	1.9059	0.6353	0.2118	0.5294	0.1059	1.1647	0.1412
last_10	0.35	7	34.000	12.000	22.000	7.000	39.000	4.000	3.1765	0.8529	0.3529	0.6471	0.2059	1.1471	0.1177
season	0.20	7	34.000	12.000	22.000	7.000	39.000	4.000	3.1765	0.8529	0.3529	0.6471	0.2059	1.1471	0.1177

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.8400
predicted_ER	1.5110
predicted_ERA	2.6047
predicted_H	3.1020
predicted_HR	0.6700
predicted_IP	5.2210
predicted_SO	6.0310
predicted_WHIP	0.7550

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.8400	0.8960	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	1.5110	1.6822	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.6047	2.6047	form_only
predicted_H	6.0000	3.1020	4.1163	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.6700	0.4355	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.0000	5.2210	5.1437	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	6.0310	4.6201	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.7550	0.7550	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.0
H	6
R	2
ER	2
BB	1
SO	2
HR	0
BF	22
Pitches	85

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	23
Pitching_ER	4
Pitching_ERA	3.18
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	8
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.0
Pitching_Pitches	102
Pitching_R	5
Pitching_SO	9
Pitching_Strikes	68
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260430_STL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	694973
playerID	694973
playerName	Paul Skenes
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	PIT
teamID	22

Dennis Santana (642701) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 16

All-history rows before 20260506: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.438	2.000	-0.438	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.950	1.000	0.050	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.625	0.000	0.375	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.667	6.000	8.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	11.5714	2.3571	1.2857	1.7143	0.6429	0.6429	0.4286
last_10	0.35	10	9.667	7.000	11.000	6.000	6.000	2.000	6.5172	1.7586	0.7241	1.1379	0.6207	0.6207	0.2069
season	0.20	16	15.667	7.000	12.000	8.000	10.000	2.000	4.0213	1.2766	0.4468	0.7660	0.5106	0.6383	0.1277

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5810
predicted_ER	0.8790
predicted_ERA	8.2924
predicted_H	1.2620
predicted_HR	0.2770
predicted_IP	0.9540
predicted_SO	0.6050
predicted_WHIP	1.9315

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.5810	1.0776	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.8790	0.5714	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	8.2924	8.2924	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.2620	1.1703	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2770	0.1801	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.9540	0.9701	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.6050	0.7432	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.9315	1.9315	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	2
SO	1
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	32

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	4.02
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_PIT@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	642701
playerID	642701
playerName	Dennis Santana
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PIT
teamID	22

Gregory Soto (642397) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 17

All-history rows before 20260506: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.176	0.000	-0.176	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.959	1.100	0.041	-0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.353	2.000	-0.353	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.333	2.000	4.000	0.000	7.000	0.000	3.3750	0.7500	0.3750	0.7500	0.0000	1.3125	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.667	2.000	4.000	3.000	10.000	0.000	1.8621	0.7241	0.2069	0.4138	0.3103	1.0345	0.0000
season	0.20	17	17.000	3.000	6.000	6.000	23.000	1.000	1.5882	0.7059	0.1765	0.3529	0.3529	1.3529	0.0588

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1820
predicted_ER	0.2820
predicted_ERA	2.4881
predicted_H	0.5630
predicted_HR	0.0120
predicted_IP	1.0180
predicted_SO	1.2460
predicted_WHIP	0.7321

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1820	0.1183	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2820	0.1833	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.4881	2.4881	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.5630	0.3659	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0120	0.0078	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0180	1.0117	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.2460	1.1599	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.7321	0.7321	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	9

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.59
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_CIN@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	642397
playerID	642397
playerName	Gregory Soto
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PIT
teamID	22

Isaac Mattson (676755) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 17

All-history rows before 20260506: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.412	5.000	1.588	-3.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.871	0.200	0.129	0.800
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.706	0.000	-0.706	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	5.000	3.000	3.000	3.000	11.2500	1.5000	1.2500	0.7500	0.7500	0.7500
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	5.000	7.000	5.000	5.000	4.5000	1.2000	0.5000	0.7000	0.5000	0.5000
season	0.20	17	16.667	7.000	15.000	9.000	12.000	3.7800	1.4400	0.4200	0.9000	0.5400	0.7200

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5620
predicted_ER	0.7440
predicted_ERA	7.3935
predicted_H	0.6910
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	0.9060
predicted_SO	0.5950
predicted_WHIP	1.3830

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5620	0.3653	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.7440	1.1836	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	7.3935	7.3935	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.6910	1.1491	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0000	0.3500	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.9060	0.9389	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.5950	0.3867	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3830	1.3830	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	2
ER	2
BB	0
SO	0
HR	1
BF	5
Pitches	21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	5
Pitching_ERA	3.78
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	31
Pitching_R	5
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	17
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260430_STL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	676755
playerID	676755
playerName	Isaac Mattson
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PIT
teamID	22

Mason Montgomery (682254) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 14

All-history rows before 20260506: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.357	0.000	-0.357	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.836	1.000	0.164	0.000
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.571	0.000	1.429	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	0.000	0.0000	0.6000	0.0000	0.2000	0.4000	1.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.667	1.000	7.000	3.000	15.000	0.000	0.9310	1.0345	0.1035	0.7241	0.3103	1.5517	0.0000
season	0.20	14	13.333	5.000	11.000	7.000	22.000	1.000	3.3750	1.3500	0.3750	0.8250	0.5250	1.6500	0.0750

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3850
predicted_ER	0.1090
predicted_ERA	1.0009
predicted_H	0.4980
predicted_HR	0.0150
predicted_IP	0.9790
predicted_SO	1.2950
predicted_WHIP	0.9021

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3850	0.6002	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1090	0.0708	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.0009	1.0009	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.4980	0.3237	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0150	0.0097	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.9790	0.9863	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	1.2950	1.8917	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9021	0.9021	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	3
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.38
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	5
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260430_STL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	682254
playerID	682254
playerName	Mason Montgomery
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PIT
teamID	22

Home Team: ARI

Adrian Del Castillo (680728) · BATTER · DH · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 14

All-history rows before 20260506: 14

System season_avg: 0.1960

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1964

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.214	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.214	0.000	0.786	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	4.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.139	0.200	0.200	Hitting_AVG	0.196	0.000	0.004	0.200
predicted_BB	0.214	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.214	0.000	-0.214	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.530	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.786	0.000	0.214	1.000
predicted_HR	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.206	0.200	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.237	0.000	-0.037	0.200
predicted_R	0.429	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.429	0.000	0.571	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.520	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	0.714	0.000	1.286	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.336	0.400	0.400	Hitting_SLG	0.357	0.000	0.043	0.400
predicted_SO	1.286	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.286	3.000	-0.286	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.214	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.139	-
predicted_BB	0.214	-
predicted_H	0.530	-
predicted_HR	0.190	-
predicted_OBP	0.206	-
predicted_R	0.429	-
predicted_RBI	0.520	-
predicted_SLG	0.336	-
predicted_SO	1.286	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.207	-0.007
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.942	-0.058
predicted_AVG	0.139	0.000
predicted_BB	0.289	0.075
predicted_H	0.539	0.009
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.189	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.206	0.000
predicted_R	0.436	0.007
predicted_RBI	0.526	0.006
predicted_SLG	0.336	0.000
predicted_SO	1.422	0.136

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.135 HR/AB=0.047

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	9.000	0.1053	0.1905	0.3158	0.1053	0.0526	0.1053	0.1053	0.4737
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	6.000	2.000	2.000	6.000	5.000	3.000	12.000	0.1500	0.2093	0.3500	0.1500	0.0500	0.1500	0.0750	0.3000
season	0.20	14	-	56.000	11.000	3.000	2.000	10.000	6.000	3.000	18.000	0.1964	0.2373	0.3571	0.1964	0.0357	0.1786	0.0536	0.3214

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2030
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.9100
predicted_AVG	0.1392
predicted_BB	0.3300
predicted_H	0.5440
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1890
predicted_OBP	0.2064
predicted_R	0.4400
predicted_RBI	0.5300
predicted_SLG	0.3360
predicted_SO	1.4950

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2140	0.2030	0.2069	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0000	3.9100	3.9415	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1390	0.1392	0.1391	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2140	0.3300	0.2894	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5300	0.5440	0.5391	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1900	0.1890	0.1893	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2060	0.2064	0.2063	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4290	0.4400	0.4362	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5200	0.5300	0.5265	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3360	0.3360	0.3360	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2860	1.4950	1.4219	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.196

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH-C
gameID	20260430_ARI@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	680728
playerID	680728
playerName	Adrian Del Castillo
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	ARI
teamID	1

Ildemaro Vargas (545121) · BATTER · 1B · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 25

All-history rows before 20260506: 25

System season_avg: 0.3590

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3592

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.240	1.000	-0.240	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.040	0.000	-0.040	0.000
predicted_AB	4.120	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.120	5.000	-0.120	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.380	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.359	0.200	-0.359	-0.200
predicted_BB	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.120	0.000	-0.120	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.470	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.480	1.000	-1.480	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.240	0.000	-0.240	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.406	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.377	0.200	-0.377	-0.200
predicted_R	0.760	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.760	0.000	-0.760	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.510	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.760	1.000	-0.760	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.512	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.612	0.400	-0.612	-0.400
predicted_SO	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.240	-
predicted_3B	0.040	-
predicted_AB	4.120	-
predicted_AVG	0.380	-
predicted_BB	0.120	-
predicted_H	1.470	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.406	-
predicted_R	0.760	-
predicted_RBI	0.510	-
predicted_SLG	0.512	-
predicted_SO	0.400	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.219	-0.021
predicted_3B	0.042	0.002
predicted_AB	4.139	0.019
predicted_AVG	0.380	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.162	0.042
predicted_H	1.539	0.069
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.083	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.406	0.000
predicted_R	0.480	-0.280
predicted_RBI	0.531	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.512	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.238	-0.162

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.14), rates preserved: AVG=0.372 HR/AB=0.020

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 25

Reference playing time: 4.120

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	8.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.3810	0.4091	0.4286	0.3810	0.0000	0.0952	0.0476	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	-	41.000	16.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	5.000	2.000	2.000	0.3902	0.4186	0.5610	0.3902	0.0244	0.1463	0.0488	0.0488
season	0.20	25	-	103.000	37.000	6.000	1.000	6.000	19.000	19.000	3.000	10.000	0.3592	0.3774	0.6117	0.3592	0.0583	0.1845	0.0291	0.0971

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2080
predicted_3B	0.0430
predicted_AB	4.1490
predicted_AVG	0.3799
predicted_BB	0.1840
predicted_H	1.5760
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0840
predicted_OBP	0.4061
predicted_R	0.3300
predicted_RBI	0.5430
predicted_SLG	0.5116
predicted_SO	0.1510

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2400	0.2080	0.2192	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0400	0.0430	0.0420	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1200	4.1490	4.1388	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3800	0.3799	0.3799	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1200	0.1840	0.1616	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.4700	1.5760	1.5389	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0840	0.0826	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4060	0.4061	0.4061	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7600	0.3300	0.4805	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5100	0.5430	0.5314	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5120	0.5116	0.5117	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4000	0.1510	0.2381	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	25
Season rows before report date	25
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	25
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.359

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260505_PIT@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	545121
playerID	545121
playerName	Ildemaro Vargas
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	ARI
teamID	1

Nolan Arenado (571448) · BATTER · 3B · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 32

All-history rows before 20260506: 32

System season_avg: 0.2730

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2727

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.094	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.094	0.000	-0.094	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.438	2.000	2.000	Hitting_AB	3.438	1.000	-1.438	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.249	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.273	0.000	-0.273	0.000
predicted_BB	0.250	2.000	2.000	Hitting_BB	0.250	2.000	1.750	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.720	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.938	0.000	-0.938	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.156	0.000	-0.156	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.361	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.325	0.750	0.175	-0.250
predicted_R	0.531	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.531	1.000	-0.531	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.531	0.000	-0.531	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.359	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.436	0.000	-0.436	0.000
predicted_SO	0.750	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.750	0.000	-0.750	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.094	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.438	-
predicted_AVG	0.249	-
predicted_BB	0.250	-
predicted_H	0.720	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.361	-
predicted_R	0.531	-
predicted_RBI	0.190	-
predicted_SLG	0.359	-
predicted_SO	0.750	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.127	0.033
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.210	-0.228
predicted_AVG	0.249	0.000
predicted_BB	0.354	0.104
predicted_H	0.752	0.032
predicted_HBP	0.134	-
predicted_HR	0.063	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.361	-0.000
predicted_R	0.509	-0.022
predicted_RBI	0.199	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.359	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.815	0.065

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.44), rates preserved: AVG=0.219 HR/AB=0.018

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=14.0, BvP AVG=0.357)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-1.000
BB	2.000	2.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	0.2000	0.3333	0.2667	0.2000	0.0000	0.0000	0.1333	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	30.000	9.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	5.000	7.000	0.3000	0.4167	0.4333	0.3000	0.0333	0.1000	0.1667	0.2333
season	0.20	32	-	110.000	30.000	3.000	5.000	17.000	17.000	8.000	24.000	0.2727	0.3250	0.4364	0.2727	0.0454	0.1545	0.0727	0.2182

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1450
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.0870
predicted_AVG	0.2495
predicted_BB	0.4100
predicted_H	0.7700
predicted_HBP	0.1340
predicted_HR	0.0640
predicted_OBP	0.3608
predicted_R	0.4970
predicted_RBI	0.2030
predicted_SLG	0.3589
predicted_SO	0.8500

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0940	0.1450	0.1271	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4380	3.0870	3.2099	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2490	0.2495	0.2493	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2500	0.4100	0.3540	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7200	0.7700	0.7525	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1340	0.1340	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0640	0.0626	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3610	0.3608	0.3609	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5310	0.4970	0.5089	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1900	0.2030	0.1985	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3590	0.3589	0.3589	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7500	0.8500	0.8150	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.273

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	1
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260505_PIT@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	571448
playerID	571448
playerName	Nolan Arenado
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	ARI
teamID	1

Gabriel Moreno (672515) · BATTER · C · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 13

All-history rows before 20260506: 13

System season_avg: 0.2450

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2449

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.308	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.308	1.000	-0.308	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.769	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.769	4.000	0.231	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.237	0.750	0.750	Hitting_AVG	0.245	0.500	0.505	0.250
predicted_BB	0.231	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.231	0.000	-0.231	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.740	3.000	3.000	Hitting_H	0.923	2.000	2.077	1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.077	0.000	0.923	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.290	0.750	0.750	Hitting_OBP	0.296	0.500	0.454	0.250
predicted_R	0.538	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.538	1.000	0.462	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.510	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	0.462	1.000	1.538	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.435	1.500	1.500	Hitting_SLG	0.388	0.750	1.112	0.750
predicted_SO	0.846	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.846	0.000	-0.846	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.308	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.769	-
predicted_AVG	0.237	-
predicted_BB	0.231	-
predicted_H	0.740	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.290	-
predicted_R	0.538	-
predicted_RBI	0.510	-
predicted_SLG	0.435	-
predicted_SO	0.846	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.332	0.024
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.821	0.052
predicted_AVG	0.237	0.000
predicted_BB	0.215	-0.016
predicted_H	0.853	0.113
predicted_HBP	0.139	-
predicted_HR	0.129	0.019
predicted_OBP	0.290	0.000
predicted_R	0.547	0.009
predicted_RBI	0.584	0.074
predicted_SLG	0.435	0.000
predicted_SO	1.039	0.193

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.82), rates preserved: AVG=0.223 HR/AB=0.034

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	5.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	1.000	7.000	0.2500	0.3043	0.5000	0.2500	0.0500	0.2000	0.0500	0.3500
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	8.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	5.000	2.000	10.000	0.2162	0.2683	0.3784	0.2162	0.0270	0.1351	0.0541	0.2703
season	0.20	13	-	49.000	12.000	4.000	1.000	6.000	7.000	3.000	11.000	0.2449	0.2963	0.3878	0.2449	0.0204	0.1225	0.0612	0.2245

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3450
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.8490
predicted_AVG	0.2371
predicted_BB	0.2070
predicted_H	0.9130
predicted_HBP	0.1390
predicted_HR	0.1390
predicted_OBP	0.2901
predicted_R	0.5520
predicted_RBI	0.6230
predicted_SLG	0.4350
predicted_SO	1.1430

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3080	0.3450	0.3320	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7690	3.8490	3.8210	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2370	0.2371	0.2371	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2310	0.2070	0.2154	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7400	0.9130	0.8525	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1390	0.1390	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1390	0.1289	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2900	0.2901	0.2901	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5380	0.5520	0.5471	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5100	0.6230	0.5835	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4350	0.4350	0.4350	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8460	1.1430	1.0391	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	3
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.245

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260505_PIT@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	672515
playerID	672515
playerName	Gabriel Moreno
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	ARI
teamID	1

Geraldo Perdomo (672695) · BATTER · SS · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 31

All-history rows before 20260506: 31

System season_avg: 0.2450

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2453

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.161	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.161	1.000	-0.161	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.097	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.097	0.000	-0.097	0.000
predicted_AB	3.460	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.419	4.000	1.581	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.259	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.245	0.250	-0.245	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.613	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.613	1.000	-0.613	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.097	0.000	-0.097	0.000
predicted_H	0.890	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.839	1.000	-0.839	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.065	0.000	-0.065	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.357	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.354	0.400	-0.354	-0.400
predicted_R	0.419	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.419	1.000	-0.419	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.660	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.355	2.000	-0.355	-2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.194	0.000	-0.194	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.510	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.406	0.500	-0.406	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.516	3.000	3.000	Hitting_SO	0.516	1.000	2.484	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.161	-
predicted_3B	0.097	-
predicted_AB	3.460	-
predicted_AVG	0.259	-
predicted_BB	0.613	-
predicted_H	0.890	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.357	-
predicted_R	0.419	-
predicted_RBI	0.660	-
predicted_SLG	0.510	-
predicted_SO	0.516	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.236	0.075
predicted_3B	0.118	0.021
predicted_AB	3.645	0.185
predicted_AVG	0.259	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.601	-0.012
predicted_H	0.941	0.051
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.130	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.357	0.000
predicted_R	0.410	-0.009
predicted_RBI	0.697	0.037
predicted_SLG	0.510	0.000
predicted_SO	0.529	0.013

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.64), rates preserved: AVG=0.258 HR/AB=0.036

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	0.2500	0.3182	0.5000	0.2500	0.0500	0.2500	0.1000	0.1000
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	10.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	4.000	8.000	7.000	0.2778	0.4091	0.5833	0.2778	0.0278	0.1667	0.2222	0.1944
season	0.20	31	-	106.000	26.000	5.000	3.000	2.000	11.000	13.000	19.000	16.000	0.2453	0.3543	0.4057	0.2453	0.0189	0.1038	0.1792	0.1509

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2770
predicted_3B	0.1300
predicted_AB	3.7440
predicted_AVG	0.2588
predicted_BB	0.5940
predicted_H	0.9690
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1350
predicted_OBP	0.3572
predicted_R	0.4060
predicted_RBI	0.7170
predicted_SLG	0.5103
predicted_SO	0.5360

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1610	0.2770	0.2364	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0970	0.1300	0.1184	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4600	3.7440	3.6446	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2590	0.2588	0.2589	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6130	0.5940	0.6007	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8900	0.9690	0.9414	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1350	0.1298	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3570	0.3572	0.3571	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4190	0.4060	0.4105	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6600	0.7170	0.6970	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5100	0.5103	0.5102	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5160	0.5360	0.5290	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.245

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260505_PIT@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	672695
playerID	672695
playerName	Geraldo Perdomo
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	ARI
teamID	1

Corbin Carroll (682998) · BATTER · RF · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 32

All-history rows before 20260506: 32

System season_avg: 0.2650

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2655

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.219	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.219	0.000	-0.219	0.000
predicted_3B	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_AB	3.531	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.531	3.000	0.469	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.186	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.265	0.000	0.235	0.500
predicted_BB	0.562	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.562	1.000	0.438	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.640	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.938	0.000	1.062	2.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.272	0.600	0.600	Hitting_OBP	0.366	0.200	0.234	0.400
predicted_R	0.656	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.656	1.000	0.344	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.594	1.000	-0.594	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.298	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.504	0.000	-0.004	0.500
predicted_SO	1.156	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.156	1.000	-0.156	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.219	-
predicted_3B	0.125	-
predicted_AB	3.531	-
predicted_AVG	0.186	-
predicted_BB	0.562	-
predicted_H	0.640	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.272	-
predicted_R	0.656	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.298	-
predicted_SO	1.156	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.186	-0.033
predicted_3B	0.060	-0.065
predicted_AB	3.567	0.036
predicted_AVG	0.186	0.000
predicted_BB	0.478	-0.084
predicted_H	0.659	0.019
predicted_HBP	0.041	-
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.272	0.000
predicted_R	0.523	-0.133
predicted_RBI	0.277	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.298	0.000
predicted_SO	1.143	-0.013

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.57), rates preserved: AVG=0.185 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, BvP AVG=0.333)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	0.1667	0.2381	0.2222	0.1667	0.0000	0.0556	0.1111	0.2778
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	13.000	0.1667	0.2619	0.2778	0.1667	0.0278	0.0556	0.1111	0.3611
season	0.20	32	-	113.000	30.000	7.000	4.000	4.000	19.000	21.000	18.000	37.000	0.2655	0.3657	0.5044	0.2655	0.0354	0.1681	0.1593	0.3274

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1690
predicted_3B	0.0250
predicted_AB	3.5860
predicted_AVG	0.1865
predicted_BB	0.4330
predicted_H	0.6690
predicted_HBP	0.0410
predicted_HR	0.0600
predicted_OBP	0.2720
predicted_R	0.4520
predicted_RBI	0.2800
predicted_SLG	0.2981
predicted_SO	1.1360

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2190	0.1690	0.1865	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.1250	0.0250	0.0600	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5310	3.5860	3.5667	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1860	0.1865	0.1863	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5620	0.4330	0.4782	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6400	0.6690	0.6588	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0410	0.0410	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0600	0.0600	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2720	0.2720	0.2720	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6560	0.4520	0.5234	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.2800	0.2765	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2980	0.2981	0.2981	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1560	1.1360	1.1430	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.265

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260505_PIT@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	682998
playerID	682998
playerName	Corbin Carroll
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	ARI
teamID	1

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (666971) · BATTER · LF · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 12

All-history rows before 20260506: 12

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.667	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.667	1.000	0.333	3.000
predicted_AVG	0.372	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.250	1.000	0.000	-0.750
predicted_BB	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.500	3.000	-0.500	-3.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.190	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.917	1.000	0.083	0.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.471	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.340	1.000	-0.090	-0.750
predicted_R	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.429	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.295	1.000	-0.045	-0.750
predicted_SO	0.667	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.667	-
predicted_AVG	0.372	-
predicted_BB	0.500	-
predicted_H	1.190	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.471	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.429	-
predicted_SO	0.667	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.185	0.018
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.515	-0.152
predicted_AVG	0.372	0.000
predicted_BB	0.617	0.117
predicted_H	1.247	0.057
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.471	0.000
predicted_R	0.410	0.077
predicted_RBI	0.285	0.015
predicted_SLG	0.429	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.718	0.051

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.67), rates preserved: AVG=0.340 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	4.000	0.5000	0.6000	0.5625	0.5000	0.0625	0.2500	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	10.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	6.000	7.000	0.2778	0.3810	0.3333	0.2778	0.1111	0.1667	0.1944
season	0.20	12	-	44.000	11.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	6.000	8.000	0.2500	0.3400	0.2955	0.2500	0.0909	0.1364	0.1818

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1950
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.4330
predicted_AVG	0.3722
predicted_BB	0.6800
predicted_H	1.2780
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.4713
predicted_R	0.4520
predicted_RBI	0.2930
predicted_SLG	0.4289
predicted_SO	0.7450

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.1950	0.1852	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6670	3.4330	3.5149	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3720	0.3722	0.3721	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5000	0.6800	0.6170	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1900	1.2780	1.2472	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4710	0.4713	0.4712	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.4520	0.4103	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.2930	0.2850	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4290	0.4289	0.4289	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6670	0.7450	0.7177	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	1
Hitting_AVG	1.0
Hitting_BB	3
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260505_PIT@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	666971
playerID	666971
playerName	Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	ARI
teamID	1

Alek Thomas (677950) · BATTER · CF · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 26

All-history rows before 20260506: 26

System season_avg: 0.1890

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1889

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.346	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.346	1.000	-0.346	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.462	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.462	3.000	-0.462	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.153	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.189	0.333	-0.189	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.115	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.115	0.000	0.885	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.430	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.654	1.000	-0.654	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.203	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.232	0.500	0.018	-0.250
predicted_R	0.462	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.462	2.000	-0.462	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.385	0.000	-0.385	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.311	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.356	0.667	-0.356	-0.667
predicted_SO	0.846	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.846	1.000	-0.846	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.346	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.462	-
predicted_AVG	0.153	-
predicted_BB	0.115	-
predicted_H	0.430	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.203	-
predicted_R	0.462	-
predicted_RBI	0.150	-
predicted_SLG	0.311	-
predicted_SO	0.846	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.291	-0.055
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.290	-0.172
predicted_AVG	0.153	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.076	-0.039
predicted_H	0.468	0.038
predicted_HBP	0.144	-
predicted_HR	0.078	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.203	-0.000
predicted_R	0.474	0.012
predicted_RBI	0.165	0.015
predicted_SLG	0.311	0.000
predicted_SO	0.926	0.080

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.46), rates preserved: AVG=0.135 HR/AB=0.022

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, BvP AVG=0.143)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 26

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	6.000	0.0667	0.1250	0.1333	0.0667	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.4000
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	8.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	6.000	1.000	7.000	0.2424	0.2857	0.5152	0.2424	0.0606	0.0909	0.0303	0.2121
season	0.20	26	-	90.000	17.000	9.000	2.000	10.000	12.000	3.000	22.000	0.1889	0.2316	0.3556	0.1889	0.0222	0.1111	0.0333	0.2444

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2620
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.1970
predicted_AVG	0.1526
predicted_BB	0.0550
predicted_H	0.4880
predicted_HBP	0.1440
predicted_HR	0.0820
predicted_OBP	0.2026
predicted_R	0.4810
predicted_RBI	0.1730
predicted_SLG	0.3114
predicted_SO	0.9690

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3460	0.2620	0.2914	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4620	3.1970	3.2898	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1530	0.1526	0.1527	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1150	0.0550	0.0760	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4300	0.4880	0.4677	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1440	0.1440	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0820	0.0778	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2030	0.2026	0.2027	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4620	0.4810	0.4743	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1500	0.1730	0.1649	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3110	0.3114	0.3113	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8460	0.9690	0.9260	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	26
Season rows before report date	26
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	26
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.189

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260505_PIT@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	677950
playerID	677950
playerName	Alek Thomas
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	ARI
teamID	1

Ketel Marte (606466) · BATTER · 2B · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 31

All-history rows before 20260506: 31

System season_avg: 0.2230

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2231

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.097	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.097	0.000	-0.097	0.000
predicted_3B	0.032	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.032	1.000	-0.032	-1.000
predicted_AB	4.194	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	4.194	5.000	0.806	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.208	0.400	0.400	Hitting_AVG	0.223	0.400	0.177	0.000
predicted_BB	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.290	0.000	-0.290	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.840	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.935	2.000	1.065	0.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.161	0.000	-0.161	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.246	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.273	0.400	0.127	0.000
predicted_R	0.613	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.613	2.000	0.387	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.460	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.419	2.000	-0.419	-2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.390	0.400	0.400	Hitting_SLG	0.377	0.800	0.023	-0.400
predicted_SO	0.903	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.903	0.000	1.097	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.097	-
predicted_3B	0.032	-
predicted_AB	4.194	-
predicted_AVG	0.208	-
predicted_BB	0.290	-
predicted_H	0.840	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.246	-
predicted_R	0.613	-
predicted_RBI	0.460	-
predicted_SLG	0.390	-
predicted_SO	0.903	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.070	-0.027
predicted_3B	0.096	0.064
predicted_AB	4.279	0.085
predicted_AVG	0.208	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.244	-0.046
predicted_H	0.878	0.038
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.154	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.246	-0.000
predicted_R	0.584	-0.029
predicted_RBI	0.481	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.390	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.126	0.223

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.28), rates preserved: AVG=0.205 HR/AB=0.036

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 4.194

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	22.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	1.000	8.000	0.1818	0.2174	0.4091	0.1818	0.0454	0.1364	0.0454	0.3636
last_10	0.35	10	-	43.000	10.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	5.000	2.000	10.000	0.2326	0.2667	0.3721	0.2326	0.0233	0.0930	0.0465	0.2326
season	0.20	31	-	130.000	29.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	13.000	19.000	9.000	28.000	0.2231	0.2734	0.3769	0.2231	0.0385	0.1000	0.0692	0.2154

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0550
predicted_3B	0.1300
predicted_AB	4.3240
predicted_AVG	0.2078
predicted_BB	0.2190
predicted_H	0.8990
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1570
predicted_OBP	0.2459
predicted_R	0.5680
predicted_RBI	0.4930
predicted_SLG	0.3897
predicted_SO	1.2460

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0970	0.0550	0.0697	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0320	0.1300	0.0957	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1940	4.3240	4.2785	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2080	0.2078	0.2079	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2900	0.2190	0.2439	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8400	0.8990	0.8783	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1570	0.1545	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2460	0.2459	0.2459	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6130	0.5680	0.5837	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4600	0.4930	0.4815	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3900	0.3897	0.3898	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9030	1.2460	1.1260	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.223

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	1
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260505_PIT@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	606466
playerID	606466
playerName	Ketel Marte
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	ARI
teamID	1

Michael Soroka (647336) · PITCHER · Starter · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 6

All-history rows before 20260506: 6

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	2.667	8.000	-0.667	-6.000
predicted_IP	5.000	5.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.033	3.000	-0.033	2.000
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_SO	6.000	2.000	-3.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 5.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	25.667	16.000	31.000	8.000	26.000	3.000	5.6104	1.5195	0.6234	1.2078	0.3117	1.0130	0.1169
last_10	0.35	6	30.667	16.000	35.000	9.000	36.000	3.000	4.6957	1.4348	0.5217	1.1413	0.2935	1.1739	0.0978
season	0.20	6	30.667	16.000	35.000	9.000	36.000	3.000	4.6957	1.4348	0.5217	1.1413	0.2935	1.1739	0.0978

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.5450
predicted_ER	2.9060
predicted_ERA	5.1073
predicted_H	5.9980
predicted_HR	0.5450
predicted_IP	5.1210
predicted_SO	5.6410
predicted_WHIP	1.4729

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	5.0000	1.5450	2.7542	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.9060	2.5889	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.1073	5.1073	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	5.9980	4.5987	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.5450	0.7043	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.0000	5.1210	5.0787	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	5.6410	4.7166	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4729	1.4729	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.0
H	2
R	2
ER	2
BB	5
SO	3
HR	1
BF	23
Pitches	104

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	21
Pitching_ER	8
Pitching_ERA	4.70
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	10
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	3.0
Pitching_Pitches	79
Pitching_R	8
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	51
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260430_ARI@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	647336
playerID	647336
playerName	Michael Soroka
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	ARI
teamID	1

Jonathan Loáisiga (642528) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 2

All-history rows before 20260506: 2

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	4.000	4.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.000	0.000	4.000	4.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.050	1.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total H	Total SO	WHIP	H_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	2	2.333	1.000	2.000	0.4286	0.4286	0.8571
last_10	0.35	2	2.333	1.000	2.000	0.4286	0.4286	0.8571
season	0.20	2	2.333	1.000	2.000	0.4286	0.4286	0.8571

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.0000
predicted_ER	0.0000
predicted_ERA	0.0000
predicted_H	0.5000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.1670
predicted_SO	1.0000
predicted_WHIP	0.4286

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.0000	0.3500	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	4.0000	0.0000	1.4000	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	0.5000	1.7250	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.1670	1.1086	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	1.0000	1.7000	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.4286	0.4286	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	4
R	4
ER	4
BB	1
SO	3
HR	0
BF	8
Pitches	40

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.00
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260328_ARI@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	642528
playerID	642528
playerName	Jonathan Loáisiga
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ARI
teamID	1

Juan Morillo (666661) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 2

All-history rows before 20260506: 2

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.000	2.000	0.000	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.600	0.200	0.400	0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	2	1.667	2.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	10.8000	2.4000	1.2000	1.2000	1.2000	0.6000	0.6000
last_10	0.35	2	1.667	2.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	10.8000	2.4000	1.2000	1.2000	1.2000	0.6000	0.6000
season	0.20	2	1.667	2.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	10.8000	2.4000	1.2000	1.2000	1.2000	0.6000	0.6000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.0000
predicted_ER	1.0000
predicted_ERA	10.8000
predicted_H	1.0000
predicted_HR	0.5000
predicted_IP	0.8330
predicted_SO	0.5000
predicted_WHIP	2.4000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	1.0000	0.6500	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	10.8000	10.8000	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	1.0000	1.7000	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.5000	0.3250	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.8330	0.8914	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.5000	0.6750	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	2.4000	2.4000	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	3
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	26

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	10.80
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	22
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L, BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260328_ARI@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	666661
playerID	666661
playerName	Juan Morillo
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ARI
teamID	1

Kevin Ginkel (656464) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 1

All-history rows before 20260506: 1

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP
last_5	0.45	1	1.000	1.000	2.000	9.0000	2.0000	1.0000	2.0000
last_10	0.35	1	1.000	1.000	2.000	9.0000	2.0000	1.0000	2.0000
season	0.20	1	1.000	1.000	2.000	9.0000	2.0000	1.0000	2.0000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.0000
predicted_ER	1.0000
predicted_ERA	9.0000
predicted_H	2.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.0000
predicted_WHIP	2.0000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	9.0000	9.0000	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	2.0000	1.3000	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.0000	0.7000	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	2.0000	2.0000	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	9.00
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	21
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260327_ARI@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	656464
playerID	656464
playerName	Kevin Ginkel
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ARI
teamID	1

Paul Sewald (623149) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 1

All-history rows before 20260506: 1

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.100	0.100	0.900	0.900
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP
last_5	0.45	1	0.333
last_10	0.35	1	0.333
season	0.20	1	0.333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.0000
predicted_ER	0.0000
predicted_ERA	0.0000
predicted_H	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	0.3330
predicted_SO	0.0000
predicted_WHIP	0.0000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.3330	0.5665	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	8

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	1
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.00
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	5
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	5
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260328_ARI@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	623149
playerID	623149
playerName	Paul Sewald
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ARI
teamID	1

20260506_SD@SF

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "confidence": 0.57, "home_win_probability": 0.43000000000000005, "away_win_probability": 0.57, "predicted_score_text": "SD 4 - 2 SF", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to final winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "predicted_score_text": "SD 4 - 3 SF", "confidence": 0.57, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score", "final_prediction_synced": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "SD 4 - 3 SF", "winner": "SD"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "score_text": "SD 4 - 2 SF", "winner": "SD"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": -1, "total_run_delta": -1, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"}}

Away Team: SD

Manny Machado (592518) · BATTER · 3B · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 33

All-history rows before 20260506: 33

System season_avg: 0.2120

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2119

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.121	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.121	0.000	-0.121	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.576	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.576	5.000	-0.576	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.207	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.212	0.000	-0.212	0.000
predicted_BB	0.576	2.000	2.000	Hitting_BB	0.576	0.000	1.424	2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_H	0.710	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.758	0.000	-0.758	0.000
predicted_HR	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.152	0.000	-0.152	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.276	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.317	0.000	0.083	0.400
predicted_R	0.576	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.576	0.000	-0.576	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.470	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.545	0.000	-0.545	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.405	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.373	0.000	-0.373	0.000
predicted_SO	0.909	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.909	2.000	1.091	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.121	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.576	-
predicted_AVG	0.207	-
predicted_BB	0.576	-
predicted_H	0.710	-
predicted_HR	0.200	-
predicted_OBP	0.276	-
predicted_R	0.576	-
predicted_RBI	0.470	-
predicted_SLG	0.405	-
predicted_SO	0.909	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.102	-0.019
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.761	0.185
predicted_AVG	0.207	0.000
predicted_BB	0.444	-0.132
predicted_H	0.768	0.058
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.215	0.015
predicted_OBP	0.276	0.000
predicted_R	0.534	-0.042
predicted_RBI	0.510	0.040
predicted_SLG	0.405	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.016	0.107

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.76), rates preserved: AVG=0.204 HR/AB=0.057

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=16.0, BvP AVG=0.062)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	2.000	2.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	0.1579	0.2381	0.3158	0.1579	0.0526	0.1053	0.1053	0.3158
last_10	0.35	10	-	41.000	11.000	2.000	3.000	7.000	9.000	2.000	10.000	0.2683	0.3023	0.5366	0.2683	0.0732	0.1707	0.0488	0.2439
season	0.20	33	-	118.000	25.000	4.000	5.000	18.000	19.000	19.000	30.000	0.2119	0.3165	0.3729	0.2119	0.0424	0.1525	0.1610	0.2542

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0920
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.8600
predicted_AVG	0.2073
predicted_BB	0.3730
predicted_H	0.8000
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.2230
predicted_OBP	0.2762
predicted_R	0.5120
predicted_RBI	0.5310
predicted_SLG	0.4045
predicted_SO	1.0740

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1210	0.0920	0.1021	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5760	3.8600	3.7606	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2070	0.2073	0.2072	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5760	0.3730	0.4440	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7100	0.8000	0.7685	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2000	0.2230	0.2149	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2760	0.2762	0.2761	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5760	0.5120	0.5344	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4700	0.5310	0.5096	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4050	0.4045	0.4047	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9090	1.0740	1.0163	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.212

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260505_SD@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	592518
playerID	592518
playerName	Manny Machado
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	SD
teamID	23

Ramón Laureano (657656) · BATTER · LF · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 30

All-history rows before 20260506: 30

System season_avg: 0.2420

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2417

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.133	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_3B	0.067	1.000	1.000	Hitting_3B	0.067	0.000	0.933	1.000
predicted_AB	4.000	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	4.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.189	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.242	0.250	0.258	0.250
predicted_BB	0.367	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.367	0.000	-0.367	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.660	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.967	1.000	1.033	1.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.167	1.000	-0.167	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.250	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.306	0.250	0.194	0.250
predicted_R	0.533	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.533	1.000	0.467	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.310	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	0.633	1.000	1.367	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.343	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SLG	0.433	1.000	0.567	0.000
predicted_SO	1.300	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.300	1.000	-0.300	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.133	-
predicted_3B	0.067	-
predicted_AB	4.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.189	-
predicted_BB	0.367	-
predicted_H	0.660	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.250	-
predicted_R	0.533	-
predicted_RBI	0.310	-
predicted_SLG	0.343	-
predicted_SO	1.300	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.064	-0.070
predicted_3B	0.054	-0.013
predicted_AB	3.942	-0.058
predicted_AVG	0.189	0.000
predicted_BB	0.346	-0.021
predicted_H	0.712	0.052
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.152	0.012
predicted_OBP	0.250	0.000
predicted_R	0.463	-0.070
predicted_RBI	0.338	0.028
predicted_SLG	0.343	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.457	0.157

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.178 HR/AB=0.038

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, BvP AVG=0.500)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	1.000	1.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	8.000	0.1579	0.2000	0.3158	0.1579	0.0526	0.0526	0.0526	0.4210
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	8.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	5.000	16.000	0.2000	0.2826	0.3250	0.2000	0.0250	0.1000	0.1250	0.4000
season	0.20	30	-	120.000	29.000	4.000	2.000	5.000	19.000	16.000	11.000	39.000	0.2417	0.3060	0.4333	0.2417	0.0417	0.1583	0.0917	0.3250

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0260
predicted_3B	0.0470
predicted_AB	3.9100
predicted_AVG	0.1894
predicted_BB	0.3350
predicted_H	0.7400
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.1590
predicted_OBP	0.2501
predicted_R	0.4260
predicted_RBI	0.3530
predicted_SLG	0.3425
predicted_SO	1.5420

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1330	0.0260	0.0635	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0670	0.0470	0.0540	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0000	3.9100	3.9415	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1890	0.1894	0.1893	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3670	0.3350	0.3462	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6600	0.7400	0.7120	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1590	0.1524	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2500	0.2501	0.2501	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5330	0.4260	0.4634	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3100	0.3530	0.3379	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3430	0.3425	0.3427	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3000	1.5420	1.4573	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	1
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.242

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260504_SD@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	657656
playerID	657656
playerName	Ramón Laureano
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	SD
teamID	23

Freddy Fermin (666023) · BATTER · C · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 18

All-history rows before 20260506: 18

System season_avg: 0.1610

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1607

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.222	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.222	0.000	0.778	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.111	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.111	3.000	0.889	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.137	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.161	0.000	0.089	0.250
predicted_BB	0.444	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.444	0.000	-0.444	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_H	0.350	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.239	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.279	0.000	-0.029	0.250
predicted_R	0.556	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.556	0.000	-0.556	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.203	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.232	0.000	0.268	0.500
predicted_SO	0.833	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.833	1.000	0.167	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.222	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.111	-
predicted_AVG	0.137	-
predicted_BB	0.444	-
predicted_H	0.350	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.239	-
predicted_R	0.556	-
predicted_RBI	0.160	-
predicted_SLG	0.203	-
predicted_SO	0.833	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.211	-0.011
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.089	-0.022
predicted_AVG	0.137	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.413	-0.031
predicted_H	0.396	0.046
predicted_HBP	0.096	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.239	-0.000
predicted_R	0.387	-0.169
predicted_RBI	0.182	0.022
predicted_SLG	0.203	0.000
predicted_SO	0.793	-0.040

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.11), rates preserved: AVG=0.127 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	0.1250	0.1667	0.1875	0.1250	0.0625	0.0625	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	29.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	6.000	7.000	0.1379	0.3077	0.2069	0.1379	0.0690	0.2069	0.2414
season	0.20	18	-	56.000	9.000	4.000	3.000	10.000	8.000	15.000	0.1607	0.2794	0.2321	0.1607	0.0536	0.1429	0.2679

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2050
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.0770
predicted_AVG	0.1367
predicted_BB	0.3970
predicted_H	0.4210
predicted_HBP	0.0960
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.2386
predicted_R	0.2960
predicted_RBI	0.1940
predicted_SLG	0.2032
predicted_SO	0.7710

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2220	0.2050	0.2109	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1110	3.0770	3.0889	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1370	0.1367	0.1368	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4440	0.3970	0.4134	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3500	0.4210	0.3962	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0960	0.0960	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2390	0.2386	0.2387	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5560	0.2960	0.3870	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1600	0.1940	0.1821	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2030	0.2032	0.2031	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8330	0.7710	0.7927	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.161

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260504_SD@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	666023
playerID	666023
playerName	Freddy Fermin
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	SD
teamID	23

Nick Castellanos (592206) · BATTER · RF · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 17

All-history rows before 20260506: 17

System season_avg: 0.1860

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1864

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.235	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.235	0.000	-0.235	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.471	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.471	3.000	0.529	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.209	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.186	0.333	-0.186	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.235	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.235	0.000	-0.235	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.610	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.647	1.000	-0.647	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.245	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.234	0.250	-0.234	-0.250
predicted_R	0.235	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.235	1.000	-0.235	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.810	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.647	2.000	-0.647	-2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.394	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.305	0.333	-0.305	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.824	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.824	0.000	-0.824	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.235	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.471	-
predicted_AVG	0.209	-
predicted_BB	0.235	-
predicted_H	0.610	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.245	-
predicted_R	0.235	-
predicted_RBI	0.810	-
predicted_SLG	0.394	-
predicted_SO	0.824	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.195	-0.040
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.317	-0.154
predicted_AVG	0.209	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.217	-0.018
predicted_H	0.652	0.042
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.137	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.245	0.000
predicted_R	0.365	0.130
predicted_RBI	0.870	0.060
predicted_SLG	0.394	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.793	-0.031

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.47), rates preserved: AVG=0.188 HR/AB=0.039

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=28.0, BvP AVG=0.286)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	0.2667	0.2941	0.5333	0.2667	0.0667	0.4000	0.0667	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	3.000	2.000	10.000	0.1471	0.1892	0.2647	0.1471	0.0294	0.1765	0.0588	0.2941
season	0.20	17	-	59.000	11.000	4.000	1.000	11.000	4.000	4.000	14.000	0.1864	0.2344	0.3051	0.1864	0.0169	0.1864	0.0678	0.2373

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1740
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.2340
predicted_AVG	0.2088
predicted_BB	0.2070
predicted_H	0.6750
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1410
predicted_OBP	0.2454
predicted_R	0.4350
predicted_RBI	0.9020
predicted_SLG	0.3936
predicted_SO	0.7770

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2350	0.1740	0.1953	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4710	3.2340	3.3170	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2090	0.2088	0.2089	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2350	0.2070	0.2168	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6100	0.6750	0.6522	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1410	0.1371	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2450	0.2454	0.2453	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2350	0.4350	0.3650	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.8100	0.9020	0.8698	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3940	0.3936	0.3937	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8240	0.7770	0.7934	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.186

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260505_SD@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	592206
playerID	592206
playerName	Nick Castellanos
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	SD
teamID	23

Sung-Mun Song (823550) · BATTER · SS · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 1

All-history rows before 20260506: 1

System season_avg: 0.5000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.5000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	4.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.500	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.500	0.500	-0.167	-0.167
predicted_BB	0.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.650	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	2.000	2.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.500	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.500	0.500	0.000	0.000
predicted_R	2.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	2.000	2.000	-2.000	-2.000
predicted_RBI	1.650	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	2.000	2.000	-2.000	-2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.750	0.667	0.667	Hitting_SLG	0.750	0.750	-0.083	-0.083
predicted_SO	0.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	1.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.500	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	1.650	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.500	-
predicted_R	2.000	-
predicted_RBI	1.650	-
predicted_SLG	0.750	-
predicted_SO	0.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	1.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.500	0.000
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.877	0.228
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.500	0.000
predicted_R	2.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	1.877	0.228
predicted_SLG	0.750	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.469 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	2.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	2.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	2.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	2.000	-
RBI	2.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-2.000
RBI	0.000	-2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB
last_5	0.45	1	-	4.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	0.5000	0.5000	0.7500	0.5000	0.5000
last_10	0.35	1	-	4.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	0.5000	0.5000	0.7500	0.5000	0.5000
season	0.20	1	-	4.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	0.5000	0.5000	0.7500	0.5000	0.5000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	1.0000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.0000
predicted_AVG	0.5000
predicted_BB	0.0000
predicted_H	2.0000
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.5000
predicted_R	2.0000
predicted_RBI	2.0000
predicted_SLG	0.7500
predicted_SO	0.0000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0000	4.0000	4.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.5000	0.5000	0.5000	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.6500	2.0000	1.8775	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.5000	0.5000	0.5000	model_form_blend
predicted_R	2.0000	2.0000	2.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	1.6500	2.0000	1.8775	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.7500	0.7500	0.7500	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.5

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260505_SD@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	823550
playerID	823550
playerName	Sung-Mun Song
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	SD
teamID	23

Miguel Andujar (609280) · BATTER · DH · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 23

All-history rows before 20260506: 23

System season_avg: 0.3290

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3294

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.304	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.304	1.000	-0.304	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.087	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.087	1.000	-0.087	-1.000
predicted_AB	3.696	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.696	5.000	1.304	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.340	0.400	0.400	Hitting_AVG	0.329	0.600	0.071	-0.200
predicted_BB	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.130	0.000	-0.130	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_H	1.220	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	1.217	3.000	0.783	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.087	0.000	-0.087	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.352	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.360	0.600	0.040	-0.200
predicted_R	0.391	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.391	1.000	0.609	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.580	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.435	1.000	-0.435	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.614	0.400	0.400	Hitting_SLG	0.529	1.200	-0.129	-0.800
predicted_SO	0.652	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.652	0.000	0.348	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.304	-
predicted_3B	0.087	-
predicted_AB	3.696	-
predicted_AVG	0.340	-
predicted_BB	0.130	-
predicted_H	1.220	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.352	-
predicted_R	0.391	-
predicted_RBI	0.580	-
predicted_SLG	0.614	-
predicted_SO	0.652	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.273	-0.031
predicted_3B	0.122	0.035
predicted_AB	3.831	0.135
predicted_AVG	0.340	0.000
predicted_BB	0.086	-0.044
predicted_H	1.290	0.070
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.170	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.352	-0.000
predicted_R	0.396	0.005
predicted_RBI	0.616	0.036
predicted_SLG	0.614	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.569	-0.083

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.83), rates preserved: AVG=0.337 HR/AB=0.044

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 23

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	0.3500	0.3500	0.6500	0.3500	0.0500	0.1500	0.0000	0.1000
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	13.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	8.000	4.000	1.000	6.000	0.3333	0.3500	0.6154	0.3333	0.0513	0.2051	0.0256	0.1538
season	0.20	23	-	85.000	28.000	7.000	2.000	2.000	10.000	9.000	3.000	15.000	0.3294	0.3596	0.5294	0.3294	0.0235	0.1177	0.0353	0.1765

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2570
predicted_3B	0.1410
predicted_AB	3.9040
predicted_AVG	0.3400
predicted_BB	0.0630
predicted_H	1.3280
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.1760
predicted_OBP	0.3519
predicted_R	0.3990
predicted_RBI	0.6360
predicted_SLG	0.6138
predicted_SO	0.5240

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3040	0.2570	0.2734	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0870	0.1410	0.1221	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6960	3.9040	3.8312	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3400	0.3400	0.3400	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1300	0.0630	0.0864	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2200	1.3280	1.2902	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.1760	0.1704	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3520	0.3519	0.3519	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3910	0.3990	0.3962	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5800	0.6360	0.6164	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6140	0.6138	0.6139	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6520	0.5240	0.5688	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	23
Season rows before report date	23
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	23
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.329

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	1
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.6
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	6
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260505_SD@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	609280
playerID	609280
playerName	Miguel Andujar
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	SD
teamID	23

Fernando Tatis Jr. (665487) · BATTER · 2B · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 33

All-history rows before 20260506: 33

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.152	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.152	1.000	-0.152	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_AB	3.879	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.879	5.000	0.121	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.254	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.200	-0.250	-0.200
predicted_BB	0.424	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.424	0.000	-0.424	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.061	0.000	-0.061	0.000
predicted_H	0.920	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.970	1.000	-0.970	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.294	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.322	0.200	-0.322	-0.200
predicted_R	0.394	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.394	1.000	-0.394	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.364	0.000	-0.364	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.273	0.000	-0.273	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.361	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.305	0.400	-0.305	-0.400
predicted_SO	1.121	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.121	1.000	0.879	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.152	-
predicted_3B	0.030	-
predicted_AB	3.879	-
predicted_AVG	0.254	-
predicted_BB	0.424	-
predicted_H	0.920	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.294	-
predicted_R	0.394	-
predicted_RBI	0.180	-
predicted_SLG	0.361	-
predicted_SO	1.121	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.155	0.003
predicted_3B	0.096	0.066
predicted_AB	3.906	0.027
predicted_AVG	0.254	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.330	-0.094
predicted_H	0.969	0.049
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.294	0.000
predicted_R	0.397	0.003
predicted_RBI	0.193	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.361	0.000
predicted_SO	1.103	-0.018

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.91), rates preserved: AVG=0.248 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, BvP AVG=0.111)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.879

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	0.2632	0.2857	0.4211	0.2632	0.0526	0.0526	0.2632
last_10	0.35	10	-	41.000	10.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	12.000	0.2439	0.2889	0.3171	0.2439	0.0244	0.0732	0.2927
season	0.20	33	-	128.000	32.000	5.000	1.000	12.000	13.000	14.000	37.000	0.2500	0.3219	0.3047	0.2500	0.0938	0.1094	0.2891

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1570
predicted_3B	0.1320
predicted_AB	3.9210
predicted_AVG	0.2538
predicted_BB	0.2790
predicted_H	0.9950
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.2941
predicted_R	0.3990
predicted_RBI	0.2000
predicted_SLG	0.3614
predicted_SO	1.0930

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1520	0.1570	0.1552	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0300	0.1320	0.0963	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8790	3.9210	3.9063	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2540	0.2538	0.2539	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4240	0.2790	0.3297	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9200	0.9950	0.9688	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2940	0.2941	0.2941	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3940	0.3990	0.3972	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1800	0.2000	0.1930	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3610	0.3614	0.3613	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1210	1.0930	1.1028	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260505_SD@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	665487
playerID	665487
playerName	Fernando Tatis Jr.
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	SD
teamID	23

Jackson Merrill (701538) · BATTER · CF · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 33

All-history rows before 20260506: 33

System season_avg: 0.2350

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2348

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.212	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.212	1.000	-0.212	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.020	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	5.000	1.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.323	0.400	0.400	Hitting_AVG	0.235	0.600	0.165	-0.200
predicted_BB	0.303	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.303	0.000	-0.303	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.300	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.939	3.000	1.061	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.121	0.000	-0.121	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.366	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.294	0.600	0.106	-0.200
predicted_R	0.667	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.667	2.000	0.333	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.520	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.545	2.000	0.455	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.212	1.000	-0.212	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.477	0.400	0.400	Hitting_SLG	0.379	0.800	0.021	-0.400
predicted_SO	1.061	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.061	2.000	-0.061	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.212	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.020	-
predicted_AVG	0.323	-
predicted_BB	0.303	-
predicted_H	1.300	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.366	-
predicted_R	0.667	-
predicted_RBI	0.520	-
predicted_SLG	0.477	-
predicted_SO	1.061	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.183	-0.029
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.007	-0.013
predicted_AVG	0.323	0.000
predicted_BB	0.273	-0.030
predicted_H	1.295	-0.005
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.149	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.366	-0.000
predicted_R	0.655	-0.012
predicted_RBI	0.519	-0.001
predicted_SLG	0.477	0.000
predicted_SO	1.016	-0.045

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.02), rates preserved: AVG=0.322 HR/AB=0.037

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 4.020

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	0.4000	0.4286	0.6000	0.4000	0.0500	0.1500	0.0500	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	11.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	7.000	3.000	12.000	0.2750	0.3256	0.3750	0.2750	0.0250	0.1000	0.0750	0.3000
season	0.20	33	-	132.000	31.000	7.000	4.000	18.000	22.000	10.000	35.000	0.2348	0.2937	0.3788	0.2349	0.0303	0.1364	0.0758	0.2651

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1670
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.0000
predicted_AVG	0.3232
predicted_BB	0.2560
predicted_H	1.2930
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.1490
predicted_OBP	0.3656
predicted_R	0.6480
predicted_RBI	0.5190
predicted_SLG	0.4770
predicted_SO	0.9920

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2120	0.1670	0.1827	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0200	4.0000	4.0070	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3230	0.3232	0.3231	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3030	0.2560	0.2725	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.3000	1.2930	1.2954	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1490	0.1494	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3660	0.3656	0.3657	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6670	0.6480	0.6546	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5200	0.5190	0.5193	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4770	0.4770	0.4770	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0610	0.9920	1.0162	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.235

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.6
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260505_SD@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	701538
playerID	701538
playerName	Jackson Merrill
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	SD
teamID	23

Gavin Sheets (657757) · BATTER · 1B · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 25

All-history rows before 20260506: 25

System season_avg: 0.2110

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2111

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.320	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.320	0.000	0.680	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.600	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.600	5.000	1.400	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.182	0.400	0.400	Hitting_AVG	0.211	0.400	0.189	0.000
predicted_BB	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.630	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.760	2.000	1.240	0.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.080	0.000	-0.080	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.253	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.260	0.400	0.140	0.000
predicted_R	0.360	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.360	1.000	0.640	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.130	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.320	0.000	0.680	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.080	1.000	-0.080	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.223	0.600	0.600	Hitting_SLG	0.367	0.400	0.233	0.200
predicted_SO	0.880	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.880	0.000	-0.880	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.320	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.600	-
predicted_AVG	0.182	-
predicted_BB	0.200	-
predicted_H	0.630	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.253	-
predicted_R	0.360	-
predicted_RBI	0.130	-
predicted_SLG	0.223	-
predicted_SO	0.880	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.175	-0.145
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.519	-0.081
predicted_AVG	0.182	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.200	0.000
predicted_H	0.631	0.001
predicted_HBP	0.134	-
predicted_HR	0.013	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.253	0.000
predicted_R	0.276	-0.084
predicted_RBI	0.131	0.001
predicted_SLG	0.223	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.838	-0.042

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.60), rates preserved: AVG=0.175 HR/AB=0.004

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 25

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	0.1765	0.2632	0.1765	0.1765	0.0000	0.0000	0.0588	0.2353
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	8.000	0.1714	0.2368	0.2000	0.1714	0.0000	0.0571	0.0571	0.2286
season	0.20	25	-	90.000	19.000	8.000	2.000	8.000	9.000	5.000	22.000	0.2111	0.2604	0.3667	0.2111	0.0222	0.0889	0.0556	0.2444

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0970
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.4750
predicted_AVG	0.1816
predicted_BB	0.2000
predicted_H	0.6310
predicted_HBP	0.1340
predicted_HR	0.0150
predicted_OBP	0.2534
predicted_R	0.2310
predicted_RBI	0.1310
predicted_SLG	0.2228
predicted_SO	0.8160

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3200	0.0970	0.1750	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6000	3.4750	3.5187	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1820	0.1816	0.1817	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6300	0.6310	0.6306	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1340	0.1340	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0150	0.0132	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2530	0.2534	0.2533	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3600	0.2310	0.2762	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1300	0.1310	0.1306	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2230	0.2228	0.2229	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8800	0.8160	0.8384	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	25
Season rows before report date	25
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	25
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.211

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260505_SD@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	657757
playerID	657757
playerName	Gavin Sheets
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	SD
teamID	23

Bradgley Rodriguez (699134) · PITCHER · Starter · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 14

All-history rows before 20260506: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.214	0.000	-0.214	0.000
predicted_IP	6.000	6.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.957	1.100	5.043	4.900
predicted_SO	6.000	6.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.857	0.000	5.143	6.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 6.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	3.0000	1.0000	0.3333	0.5000	0.5000	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	10.333	2.000	7.000	5.000	6.000	1.7419	1.1613	0.1935	0.6774	0.4839	0.5806
season	0.20	14	16.667	3.000	13.000	5.000	12.000	1.6200	1.0800	0.1800	0.7800	0.3000	0.7200

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5180
predicted_ER	0.2890
predicted_ERA	2.2837
predicted_H	0.7040
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.1400
predicted_SO	0.5670
predicted_WHIP	1.0725

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.5180	0.6867	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2890	0.1878	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.2837	2.2837	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.7040	1.1576	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	6.0000	1.1400	2.8410	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	6.0000	0.5670	2.4685	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0725	1.0725	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	6.0
H	2
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	6
HR	0
BF	21
Pitches	85

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.62
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_SD@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	699134
playerID	699134
playerName	Bradgley Rodriguez
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SD
teamID	23

Adrian Morejon (670970) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 15

All-history rows before 20260506: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.800	2.000	-0.800	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.013	2.000	-0.013	-1.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.400	4.000	0.600	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.333	4.000	5.000	3.000	9.000	2.000	5.6842	1.2632	0.6316	0.7895	0.4737	1.4210	0.3158
last_10	0.35	10	12.000	6.000	9.000	4.000	16.000	2.000	4.5000	1.0833	0.5000	0.7500	0.3333	1.3333	0.1667
season	0.20	15	18.000	12.000	20.000	5.000	21.000	2.000	6.0000	1.3889	0.6667	1.1111	0.2778	1.1667	0.1111

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4740
predicted_ER	0.7290
predicted_ERA	5.3329
predicted_H	1.0330
predicted_HR	0.2740
predicted_IP	1.2300
predicted_SO	1.6480
predicted_WHIP	1.2254

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4740	0.3081	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.7290	0.4738	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.3329	5.3329	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.0330	1.0214	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2740	0.1781	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.2300	1.1495	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.6480	1.7712	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2254	1.2254	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	8
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	6.00
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	31
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	4
Pitching_Strikes	23
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_CHW@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	670970
playerID	670970
playerName	Adrian Morejon
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SD
teamID	23

Jason Adam (592094) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 11

All-history rows before 20260506: 11

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.182	0.000	1.818	2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.845	1.000	0.155	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.455	0.000	1.545	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.333	1.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	1.6875	0.5625	0.1875	0.3750	0.1875	0.5625	0.1875
last_10	0.35	10	9.667	2.000	6.000	2.000	5.000	1.000	1.8621	0.8276	0.2069	0.6207	0.2069	0.5172	0.1035
season	0.20	11	10.000	2.000	6.000	2.000	5.000	1.000	1.8000	0.8000	0.2000	0.6000	0.2000	0.5000	0.1000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1970
predicted_ER	0.1970
predicted_ERA	1.7711
predicted_H	0.5060
predicted_HR	0.1410
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.5340
predicted_WHIP	0.7028

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1970	0.1280	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.1970	0.8280	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.7711	1.7711	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	0.5060	1.7289	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.1410	0.4416	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.5340	1.0471	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.7028	0.7028	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	4
R	2
ER	2
BB	0
SO	2
HR	1
BF	7
Pitches	23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.80
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	9
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_SD@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	592094
playerID	592094
playerName	Jason Adam
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SD
teamID	23

Mason Miller (695243) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 16

All-history rows before 20260506: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.006	1.000	-0.006	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	2.000	3.000	-2.000	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	2.000	5.000	1.000	5.000	3.6000	1.2000	0.4000	1.0000	0.2000	1.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	2.000	6.000	2.000	16.000	1.8000	0.8000	0.2000	0.6000	0.2000	1.6000
season	0.20	16	16.333	2.000	7.000	3.000	32.000	1.1020	0.6122	0.1225	0.4286	0.1837	1.9592

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1980
predicted_ER	0.2760
predicted_ERA	2.4704
predicted_H	0.7490
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0040
predicted_SO	1.4080
predicted_WHIP	0.9424

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.1980	0.4787	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2760	0.1794	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.4704	2.4704	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7490	0.4869	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0040	1.0026	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.4080	0.9152	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9424	0.9424	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.10
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_CHW@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	695243
playerID	695243
playerName	Mason Miller
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SD
teamID	23

Home Team: SF

Jung Hoo Lee (808982) · BATTER · CF · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 35

All-history rows before 20260506: 35

System season_avg: 0.2730

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2734

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.229	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.229	0.000	-0.229	0.000
predicted_3B	0.029	1.000	1.000	Hitting_3B	0.029	0.000	0.971	1.000
predicted_AB	3.657	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.657	4.000	0.343	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.197	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.273	0.250	-0.023	0.000
predicted_BB	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.690	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.057	0.000	-0.057	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.247	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.324	0.250	-0.074	0.000
predicted_R	0.429	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.429	1.000	-0.429	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.210	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.314	1.000	-0.314	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.259	0.750	0.750	Hitting_SLG	0.398	0.250	0.352	0.500
predicted_SO	0.514	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.514	0.000	0.486	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.229	-
predicted_3B	0.029	-
predicted_AB	3.657	-
predicted_AVG	0.197	-
predicted_BB	0.286	-
predicted_H	0.690	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.247	-
predicted_R	0.429	-
predicted_RBI	0.210	-
predicted_SLG	0.259	-
predicted_SO	0.514	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.154	-0.075
predicted_3B	0.036	0.007
predicted_AB	3.673	0.016
predicted_AVG	0.197	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.263	-0.023
predicted_H	0.712	0.022
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.011	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.247	-0.000
predicted_R	0.376	-0.053
predicted_RBI	0.218	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.259	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.395	-0.119

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.67), rates preserved: AVG=0.194 HR/AB=0.003

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	1.000	1.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	0.1111	0.1579	0.1111	0.1111	0.0000	0.0556	0.0556	0.0556
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	10.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	3.000	4.000	0.2632	0.3171	0.3684	0.2632	0.0000	0.0526	0.0790	0.1053
season	0.20	35	-	128.000	35.000	8.000	1.000	2.000	11.000	15.000	10.000	18.000	0.2734	0.3237	0.3984	0.2734	0.0156	0.0859	0.0781	0.1406

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1140
predicted_3B	0.0400
predicted_AB	3.6810
predicted_AVG	0.1968
predicted_BB	0.2510
predicted_H	0.7240
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0120
predicted_OBP	0.2468
predicted_R	0.3480
predicted_RBI	0.2230
predicted_SLG	0.2586
predicted_SO	0.3310

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2290	0.1140	0.1542	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0290	0.0400	0.0362	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6570	3.6810	3.6726	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1970	0.1968	0.1969	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2860	0.2510	0.2632	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6900	0.7240	0.7121	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0120	0.0113	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2470	0.2468	0.2469	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4290	0.3480	0.3763	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2100	0.2230	0.2184	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2590	0.2586	0.2587	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5140	0.3310	0.3951	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	1
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.273

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260505_SD@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	808982
playerID	808982
playerName	Jung Hoo Lee
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	SF
teamID	24

Casey Schmitt (669477) · BATTER · 2B · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 30

All-history rows before 20260506: 30

System season_avg: 0.3060

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3063

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.267	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.267	0.000	-0.267	0.000
predicted_3B	0.033	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.033	0.000	-0.033	0.000
predicted_AB	3.700	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.700	4.000	0.300	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.338	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.306	0.250	-0.306	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.033	0.000	-0.033	0.000
predicted_H	1.210	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.133	1.000	-1.133	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.200	1.000	-0.200	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.386	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.355	0.250	-0.355	-0.250
predicted_R	0.467	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.467	1.000	-0.467	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.820	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.600	2.000	-0.600	-2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.684	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.559	1.000	-0.559	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.800	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.800	1.000	-0.800	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.267	-
predicted_3B	0.033	-
predicted_AB	3.700	-
predicted_AVG	0.338	-
predicted_BB	0.167	-
predicted_H	1.210	-
predicted_HR	0.360	-
predicted_OBP	0.386	-
predicted_R	0.467	-
predicted_RBI	0.820	-
predicted_SLG	0.684	-
predicted_SO	0.800	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.150	-0.117
predicted_3B	0.039	0.006
predicted_AB	3.648	-0.052
predicted_AVG	0.338	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.207	0.040
predicted_H	1.218	0.008
predicted_HBP	0.061	-
predicted_HR	0.361	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.386	-0.000
predicted_R	0.501	0.034
predicted_RBI	0.827	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.684	0.000
predicted_SO	0.813	0.013

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.70), rates preserved: AVG=0.329 HR/AB=0.097

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	0.3333	0.3684	0.6667	0.3333	0.1111	0.2222	0.0556	0.2778
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	13.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	10.000	7.000	3.000	6.000	0.3611	0.4250	0.7778	0.3611	0.1111	0.2778	0.0833	0.1667
season	0.20	30	-	111.000	34.000	8.000	1.000	6.000	18.000	14.000	5.000	24.000	0.3063	0.3554	0.5586	0.3063	0.0541	0.1622	0.0450	0.2162

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0870
predicted_3B	0.0420
predicted_AB	3.6200
predicted_AVG	0.3376
predicted_BB	0.2290
predicted_H	1.2220
predicted_HBP	0.0610
predicted_HR	0.3610
predicted_OBP	0.3856
predicted_R	0.5190
predicted_RBI	0.8310
predicted_SLG	0.6840
predicted_SO	0.8200

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2670	0.0870	0.1500	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0330	0.0420	0.0389	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7000	3.6200	3.6480	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3380	0.3376	0.3377	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1670	0.2290	0.2073	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2100	1.2220	1.2178	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0610	0.0610	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3600	0.3610	0.3607	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3860	0.3856	0.3857	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4670	0.5190	0.5008	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.8200	0.8310	0.8272	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6840	0.6840	0.6840	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8000	0.8200	0.8130	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.306

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260505_SD@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	669477
playerID	669477
playerName	Casey Schmitt
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	SF
teamID	24

Bryce Eldridge (805811) · BATTER · DH · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 2

All-history rows before 20260506: 2

System season_avg: 0.1670

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1667

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	4.000	1.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.167	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.167	0.250	0.083	0.000
predicted_BB	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.420	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.500	1.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.286	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.286	0.250	-0.036	0.000
predicted_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.167	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.167	0.250	0.083	0.000
predicted_SO	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.167	-
predicted_BB	0.500	-
predicted_H	0.420	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.286	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.000	-
predicted_SLG	0.167	-
predicted_SO	0.500	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.167	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.500	0.000
predicted_H	0.472	0.052
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.286	-0.000
predicted_R	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.167	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.500	0.000

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.157 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	2	-	6.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	0.1667	0.2857	0.1667	0.1667	0.1667	0.1667
last_10	0.35	2	-	6.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	0.1667	0.2857	0.1667	0.1667	0.1667	0.1667
season	0.20	2	-	6.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	0.1667	0.2857	0.1667	0.1667	0.1667	0.1667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.0000
predicted_AVG	0.1667
predicted_BB	0.5000
predicted_H	0.5000
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.2857
predicted_R	0.0000
predicted_RBI	0.0000
predicted_SLG	0.1667
predicted_SO	0.5000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.0000	3.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1670	0.1667	0.1668	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5000	0.5000	0.5000	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4200	0.5000	0.4720	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2860	0.2857	0.2858	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1670	0.1667	0.1668	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5000	0.5000	0.5000	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.167

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260505_SD@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	805811
playerID	805811
playerName	Bryce Eldridge
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	SF
teamID	24

Willy Adames (642715) · BATTER · SS · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 35

All-history rows before 20260506: 35

System season_avg: 0.1990

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1986

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.314	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.314	0.000	-0.314	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.029	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	4.029	4.000	-1.029	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.178	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.199	0.250	0.135	0.083
predicted_BB	0.171	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.171	0.000	0.829	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.057	0.000	-0.057	0.000
predicted_H	0.620	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.800	1.000	0.200	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.086	0.000	-0.086	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.193	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.236	0.250	0.264	0.250
predicted_R	0.371	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.371	1.000	0.629	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.030	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.171	0.000	0.829	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.239	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.340	0.250	-0.007	0.083
predicted_SO	1.314	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.314	1.000	-1.314	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.314	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.029	-
predicted_AVG	0.178	-
predicted_BB	0.171	-
predicted_H	0.620	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.193	-
predicted_R	0.371	-
predicted_RBI	0.030	-
predicted_SLG	0.239	-
predicted_SO	1.314	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.232	-0.082
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.955	-0.074
predicted_AVG	0.178	0.000
predicted_BB	0.104	-0.067
predicted_H	0.671	0.051
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.018	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.193	0.000
predicted_R	0.259	-0.112
predicted_RBI	0.032	0.002
predicted_SLG	0.239	0.000
predicted_SO	1.300	-0.014

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.03), rates preserved: AVG=0.166 HR/AB=0.004

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 4.029

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	6.000	0.2105	0.2105	0.2632	0.2105	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.3158
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	14.000	0.1250	0.1463	0.1500	0.1250	0.0000	0.0000	0.0250	0.3500
season	0.20	35	-	141.000	28.000	11.000	3.000	6.000	13.000	6.000	46.000	0.1986	0.2365	0.3404	0.1986	0.0213	0.0425	0.0425	0.3262

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1880
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.9160
predicted_AVG	0.1782
predicted_BB	0.0680
predicted_H	0.6980
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0170
predicted_OBP	0.1932
predicted_R	0.1990
predicted_RBI	0.0330
predicted_SLG	0.2390
predicted_SO	1.2920

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3140	0.1880	0.2321	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0290	3.9160	3.9555	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1780	0.1782	0.1781	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1710	0.0680	0.1041	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6200	0.6980	0.6707	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0170	0.0181	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1930	0.1932	0.1931	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3710	0.1990	0.2592	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0300	0.0330	0.0319	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2390	0.2390	0.2390	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3140	1.2920	1.2997	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.199

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260505_SD@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	642715
playerID	642715
playerName	Willy Adames
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	SF
teamID	24

Heliot Ramos (671218) · BATTER · LF · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 33

All-history rows before 20260506: 33

System season_avg: 0.2600

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2598

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.242	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.242	0.000	-0.242	0.000
predicted_3B	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_AB	3.860	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.848	4.000	0.152	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.207	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.260	0.000	-0.260	0.000
predicted_BB	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.800	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.000	0.000	-1.000	0.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.217	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.291	0.000	-0.291	0.000
predicted_R	0.364	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.364	0.000	-0.364	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.424	0.000	-0.424	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.374	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.409	0.000	-0.409	0.000
predicted_SO	1.182	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.182	2.000	-0.182	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.242	-
predicted_3B	0.030	-
predicted_AB	3.860	-
predicted_AVG	0.207	-
predicted_BB	0.182	-
predicted_H	0.800	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.217	-
predicted_R	0.364	-
predicted_RBI	0.150	-
predicted_SLG	0.374	-
predicted_SO	1.182	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.243	0.001
predicted_3B	0.095	0.065
predicted_AB	3.932	0.072
predicted_AVG	0.207	0.000
predicted_BB	0.111	-0.071
predicted_H	0.814	0.014
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.052	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.217	0.000
predicted_R	0.221	-0.143
predicted_RBI	0.154	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.374	0.000
predicted_SO	0.972	-0.210

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.93), rates preserved: AVG=0.207 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.860

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	0.1500	0.1500	0.3000	0.1500	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.1500
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	10.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	10.000	0.2500	0.2619	0.4500	0.2500	0.0250	0.0500	0.0250	0.2500
season	0.20	33	-	127.000	33.000	8.000	1.000	3.000	14.000	12.000	6.000	39.000	0.2598	0.2910	0.4094	0.2598	0.0236	0.1102	0.0472	0.3071

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2440
predicted_3B	0.1300
predicted_AB	3.9700
predicted_AVG	0.2070
predicted_BB	0.0720
predicted_H	0.8220
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0530
predicted_OBP	0.2174
predicted_R	0.1440
predicted_RBI	0.1570
predicted_SLG	0.3744
predicted_SO	0.8590

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2420	0.2440	0.2433	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0300	0.1300	0.0950	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8600	3.9700	3.9315	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2070	0.2070	0.2070	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1820	0.0720	0.1105	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8000	0.8220	0.8143	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0530	0.0519	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2170	0.2174	0.2173	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3640	0.1440	0.2210	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1500	0.1570	0.1545	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3740	0.3744	0.3743	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1820	0.8590	0.9720	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.26

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260505_SD@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	671218
playerID	671218
playerName	Heliot Ramos
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	SF
teamID	24

Jesus Rodriguez (683679) · BATTER · RF · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 2

All-history rows before 20260506: 2

System season_avg: 0.3330

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3333

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	3.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.333	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.333	0.667	-0.083	-0.417
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.840	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	2.000	0.000	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.420	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.333	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.667	-0.083	-0.417
predicted_R	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.840	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	1.000	2.000	-1.000	-2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.833	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.833	1.667	-0.583	-1.417
predicted_SO	0.000	3.000	3.000	Hitting_SO	0.000	0.000	3.000	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.333	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.840	-
predicted_HR	0.420	-
predicted_OBP	0.333	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.840	-
predicted_SLG	0.833	-
predicted_SO	0.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.333	0.000
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.944	0.104
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.472	0.052
predicted_OBP	0.333	0.000
predicted_R	0.500	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.944	0.104
predicted_SLG	0.833	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.315 HR/AB=0.157

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB
last_5	0.45	2	-	6.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	0.3333	0.3333	0.8333	0.3333	0.1667	0.3333
last_10	0.35	2	-	6.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	0.3333	0.3333	0.8333	0.3333	0.1667	0.3333
season	0.20	2	-	6.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	0.3333	0.3333	0.8333	0.3333	0.1667	0.3333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.0000
predicted_AVG	0.3333
predicted_BB	0.0000
predicted_H	1.0000
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.5000
predicted_OBP	0.3333
predicted_R	0.5000
predicted_RBI	1.0000
predicted_SLG	0.8333
predicted_SO	0.0000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.0000	3.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3330	0.3333	0.3332	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8400	1.0000	0.9440	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.4200	0.5000	0.4720	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3330	0.3333	0.3332	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.5000	0.5000	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.8400	1.0000	0.9440	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.8330	0.8333	0.8332	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.333

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260505_SD@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	683679
playerID	683679
playerName	Jesus Rodriguez
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	SF
teamID	24

Matt Chapman (656305) · BATTER · 3B · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 35

All-history rows before 20260506: 35

System season_avg: 0.2390

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2388

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.171	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.171	0.000	-0.171	0.000
predicted_3B	0.029	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_AB	3.829	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.829	4.000	0.171	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.087	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.239	0.000	0.011	0.250
predicted_BB	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_H	0.320	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.914	0.000	0.086	1.000
predicted_HR	0.010	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.029	0.000	0.971	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.199	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.315	0.000	-0.065	0.250
predicted_R	0.457	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.457	0.000	0.543	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.070	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.343	0.000	0.657	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.122	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SLG	0.321	0.000	0.679	1.000
predicted_SO	1.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.171	-
predicted_3B	0.029	-
predicted_AB	3.829	-
predicted_AVG	0.087	-
predicted_BB	0.400	-
predicted_H	0.320	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.199	-
predicted_R	0.457	-
predicted_RBI	0.070	-
predicted_SLG	0.122	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.131	-0.040
predicted_3B	0.014	-0.015
predicted_AB	3.827	-0.002
predicted_AVG	0.087	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.473	0.073
predicted_H	0.328	0.008
predicted_HBP	0.043	-
predicted_HR	0.007	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.199	0.000
predicted_R	0.292	-0.165
predicted_RBI	0.069	-0.001
predicted_SLG	0.122	0.000
predicted_SO	1.290	0.290

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.83), rates preserved: AVG=0.086 HR/AB=0.002

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.829

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	8.000	0.0000	0.0909	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.1000	0.4000
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	7.000	15.000	0.1111	0.2727	0.1667	0.1111	0.0000	0.0000	0.1944	0.4167
season	0.20	35	-	134.000	32.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	12.000	16.000	14.000	35.000	0.2388	0.3154	0.3209	0.2388	0.0075	0.0896	0.1045	0.2612

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1090
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.8260
predicted_AVG	0.0866
predicted_BB	0.5120
predicted_H	0.3320
predicted_HBP	0.0430
predicted_HR	0.0060
predicted_OBP	0.1994
predicted_R	0.2030
predicted_RBI	0.0690
predicted_SLG	0.1225
predicted_SO	1.4460

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1710	0.1090	0.1307	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0290	0.0060	0.0140	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8290	3.8260	3.8271	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.0870	0.0866	0.0867	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4000	0.5120	0.4728	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3200	0.3320	0.3278	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0430	0.0430	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0060	0.0074	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1990	0.1994	0.1993	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4570	0.2030	0.2919	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0700	0.0690	0.0694	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1220	0.1225	0.1223	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.4460	1.2899	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.239

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260505_SD@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	656305
playerID	656305
playerName	Matt Chapman
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	SF
teamID	24

Patrick Bailey (672275) · BATTER · C · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 26

All-history rows before 20260506: 26

System season_avg: 0.1520

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1519

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.038	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.038	3.000	0.962	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.153	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.152	0.000	0.098	0.250
predicted_BB	0.231	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.231	0.000	-0.231	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.380	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.462	0.000	0.538	1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.038	0.000	-0.038	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.193	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.212	0.000	0.038	0.250
predicted_R	0.192	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.192	0.000	-0.192	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.192	0.000	-0.192	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.198	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.190	0.000	0.060	0.250
predicted_SO	0.769	3.000	3.000	Hitting_SO	0.769	1.000	2.231	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.038	-
predicted_AVG	0.153	-
predicted_BB	0.231	-
predicted_H	0.380	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.193	-
predicted_R	0.192	-
predicted_RBI	0.160	-
predicted_SLG	0.198	-
predicted_SO	0.769	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.973	-0.065
predicted_AVG	0.153	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.182	-0.049
predicted_H	0.425	0.045
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.043	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.193	-0.000
predicted_R	0.139	-0.053
predicted_RBI	0.176	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.198	0.000
predicted_SO	0.924	0.155

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.04), rates preserved: AVG=0.140 HR/AB=0.014

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 26

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	6.000	0.1333	0.1333	0.1333	0.1333	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.4000
last_10	0.35	10	-	28.000	5.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	9.000	0.1786	0.2581	0.2857	0.1786	0.0357	0.1429	0.1071	0.3214
season	0.20	26	-	79.000	12.000	1.000	5.000	5.000	6.000	20.000	0.1519	0.2118	0.1899	0.1519	0.0127	0.0633	0.0760	0.2532

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.9380
predicted_AVG	0.1529
predicted_BB	0.1550
predicted_H	0.4490
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0440
predicted_OBP	0.1927
predicted_R	0.1110
predicted_RBI	0.1840
predicted_SLG	0.1980
predicted_SO	1.0080

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0380	2.9380	2.9730	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1530	0.1529	0.1529	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2310	0.1550	0.1816	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3800	0.4490	0.4248	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0440	0.0426	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1930	0.1927	0.1928	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1920	0.1110	0.1394	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1600	0.1840	0.1756	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1980	0.1980	0.1980	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7690	1.0080	0.9244	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	26
Season rows before report date	26
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	26
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.152

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260502_SF@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	672275
playerID	672275
playerName	Patrick Bailey
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	SF
teamID	24

Rafael Devers (646240) · BATTER · 1B · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 36

All-history rows before 20260506: 36

System season_avg: 0.2190

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2190

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	0.833	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.806	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.806	4.000	-0.806	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.259	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.219	0.250	0.114	0.083
predicted_BB	0.250	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.250	0.000	0.750	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.920	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.833	1.000	0.167	0.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.317	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.264	0.250	0.236	0.250
predicted_R	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.560	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.389	0.000	-0.389	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.364	0.667	0.667	Hitting_SLG	0.307	0.250	0.360	0.417
predicted_SO	1.222	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.222	1.000	-0.222	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.806	-
predicted_AVG	0.259	-
predicted_BB	0.250	-
predicted_H	0.920	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.317	-
predicted_R	0.250	-
predicted_RBI	0.560	-
predicted_SLG	0.364	-
predicted_SO	1.222	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.270	0.103
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.514	-0.292
predicted_AVG	0.259	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.331	0.081
predicted_H	0.886	-0.034
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.317	0.000
predicted_R	0.224	-0.026
predicted_RBI	0.540	-0.020
predicted_SLG	0.364	0.000
predicted_SO	1.022	-0.200

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.81), rates preserved: AVG=0.233 HR/AB=0.003

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	0.3125	0.3684	0.4375	0.3125	0.0000	0.1875	0.1250	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	7.000	3.000	0.000	5.000	2.000	4.000	9.000	0.2121	0.2821	0.3030	0.2121	0.0000	0.1515	0.1212	0.2727
season	0.20	36	-	137.000	30.000	6.000	2.000	14.000	9.000	9.000	44.000	0.2190	0.2635	0.3066	0.2190	0.0146	0.1022	0.0657	0.3212

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3250
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.3560
predicted_AVG	0.2587
predicted_BB	0.3750
predicted_H	0.8680
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0100
predicted_OBP	0.3172
predicted_R	0.2100
predicted_RBI	0.5300
predicted_SLG	0.3642
predicted_SO	0.9140

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.3250	0.2697	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8060	3.3560	3.5135	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2590	0.2587	0.2588	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2500	0.3750	0.3313	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9200	0.8680	0.8862	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0100	0.0100	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3170	0.3172	0.3171	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2500	0.2100	0.2240	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5600	0.5300	0.5405	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3640	0.3642	0.3641	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2220	0.9140	1.0218	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.219

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260505_SD@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	646240
playerID	646240
playerName	Rafael Devers
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	SF
teamID	24

Adrian Houser (605288) · PITCHER · Starter · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 6

All-history rows before 20260506: 6

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	4.000	4.000	-	Pitching_ER	4.000	3.000	0.000	1.000
predicted_IP	4.000	4.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.783	4.200	-0.783	-0.200
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_SO	2.667	2.000	0.333	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	25.000	23.000	36.000	9.000	12.000	6.000	8.2800	1.8000	0.9200	1.4400	0.3600	0.4800	0.2400
last_10	0.35	6	30.333	24.000	42.000	10.000	16.000	6.000	7.1209	1.7143	0.7912	1.3846	0.3297	0.5275	0.1978
season	0.20	6	30.333	24.000	42.000	10.000	16.000	6.000	7.1209	1.7143	0.7912	1.3846	0.3297	0.5275	0.1978

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.7270
predicted_ER	4.2720
predicted_ERA	7.6425
predicted_H	7.0910
predicted_HR	1.0910
predicted_IP	5.0310
predicted_SO	2.5460
predicted_WHIP	1.7529

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	1.7270	1.4726	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	4.0000	4.2720	4.1768	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	7.6425	7.6425	form_only
predicted_H	9.0000	7.0910	7.7591	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	1.0910	0.7092	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.0000	5.0310	4.6701	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	2.5460	2.7049	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.7529	1.7529	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.0
H	9
R	4
ER	4
BB	1
SO	3
HR	0
BF	22
Pitches	92

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	19
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	7.12
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	7
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	4.2
Pitching_Pitches	68
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	42
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260430_SF@PHI_2
game_type	full
mlbID	605288
playerID	605288
playerName	Adrian Houser
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	SF
teamID	24

Caleb Kilian (668873) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 15

All-history rows before 20260506: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.133	1.000	-0.133	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.927	1.000	0.073	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.200	2.000	-1.200	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	1.000	6.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	1.5000	1.3333	0.1667	1.0000	0.3333	0.6667	0.1667
last_10	0.35	10	11.333	2.000	8.000	7.000	12.000	2.000	1.5882	1.3235	0.1765	0.7059	0.6177	1.0588	0.1765
season	0.20	15	16.000	2.000	8.000	8.000	18.000	2.000	1.1250	1.0000	0.1250	0.5000	0.5000	1.1250	0.1250

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5360
predicted_ER	0.1860
predicted_ERA	1.4559
predicted_H	0.9170
predicted_HR	0.1860
predicted_IP	1.1500
predicted_SO	1.0300
predicted_WHIP	1.2632

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.5360	0.6984	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1860	0.1209	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.4559	1.4559	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.9170	0.9461	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1860	0.1209	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.1500	1.0975	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.0300	0.6695	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2632	1.2632	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	1.13
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_SD@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	668873
playerID	668873
playerName	Caleb Kilian
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SF
teamID	24

Keaton Winn (676775) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 15

All-history rows before 20260506: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.267	0.000	-0.267
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.947	1.000	0.053
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.867	0.000	-0.867

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.333	1.000	3.000	3.000	1.000	1.6875	1.1250	0.1875	0.5625	0.5625	0.1875
last_10	0.35	10	10.333	1.000	3.000	3.000	6.000	0.8710	0.5806	0.0968	0.2903	0.2903	0.5806
season	0.20	15	14.667	4.000	7.000	5.000	13.000	2.4545	0.8182	0.2727	0.4773	0.3409	0.8864

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4390
predicted_ER	0.1790
predicted_ERA	1.5551
predicted_H	0.4670
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0370
predicted_SO	0.4820
predicted_WHIP	0.8731

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4390	0.2853	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1790	0.1163	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.5551	1.5551	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.4670	0.3036	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0370	1.0240	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.4820	0.3133	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.8731	0.8731	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.45
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	8
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	5
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_SD@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	676775
playerID	676775
playerName	Keaton Winn
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SF
teamID	24

Matt Gage (657424) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 16

All-history rows before 20260506: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.656	0.200	0.344	0.800
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.562	1.000	1.438	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	0.0000	1.5000	0.0000	0.5000	1.0000	0.5000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	7.667	2.000	4.000	6.000	4.000	1.000	2.3478	1.3043	0.2609	0.5217	0.7826	0.5217	0.1304
season	0.20	16	14.000	2.000	7.000	9.000	9.000	1.000	1.2857	1.1429	0.1429	0.5000	0.6429	0.6429	0.0714

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6850
predicted_ER	0.0960
predicted_ERA	1.0789
predicted_H	0.4080
predicted_HR	0.0480
predicted_IP	0.8030
predicted_SO	0.4310
predicted_WHIP	1.3601

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.6850	0.7953	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.0960	0.0624	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.0789	1.0789	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.4080	0.2652	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0480	0.0312	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.8030	0.8720	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.4310	0.9801	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3601	1.3601	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	2
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.29
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_SF@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	657424
playerID	657424
playerName	Matt Gage
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SF
teamID	24

Ryan Borucki (621366) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 13

All-history rows before 20260506: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.538	1.000	-0.538	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.692	1.000	0.308	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.692	0.000	1.308	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.667	2.000	6.000	2.000	2.000	0.000	3.8571	1.7143	0.4286	1.2857	0.4286	0.4286	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	6.000	14.000	3.000	8.000	1.000	6.0000	1.8889	0.6667	1.5556	0.3333	0.8889	0.1111
season	0.20	13	11.333	7.000	15.000	4.000	9.000	2.000	5.5588	1.6765	0.6177	1.3235	0.3529	0.7941	0.1765

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3460
predicted_ER	0.5000
predicted_ERA	4.9475
predicted_H	1.2620
predicted_HR	0.0670
predicted_IP	0.9090
predicted_SO	0.6030
predicted_WHIP	1.7679

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3460	0.2249	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5000	0.3250	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.9475	4.9475	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.2620	0.8203	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0670	0.0436	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.9090	0.9408	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.6030	1.0919	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.7679	1.7679	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	5.56
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	20
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_SD@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	621366
playerID	621366
playerName	Ryan Borucki
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SF
teamID	24

Ryan Walker (676254) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 14

All-history rows before 20260506: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.843	1.000	0.157	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.929	0.000	1.071	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.667	3.000	5.000	2.000	3.000	0.000	5.7857	1.5000	0.6429	1.0714	0.4286	0.6429	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.667	5.000	12.000	5.000	9.000	0.000	4.2188	1.5938	0.4688	1.1250	0.4688	0.8438	0.0000
season	0.20	14	13.667	7.000	14.000	7.000	13.000	1.000	4.6098	1.5366	0.5122	1.0244	0.5122	0.9512	0.0732

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4540
predicted_ER	0.5490
predicted_ERA	5.0021
predicted_H	1.0680
predicted_HR	0.0140
predicted_IP	0.9890
predicted_SO	0.7660
predicted_WHIP	1.5402

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4540	0.2951	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5490	0.3569	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.0021	5.0021	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.0680	0.6942	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0140	0.0091	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.9890	0.9929	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.7660	1.1979	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5402	1.5402	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	4.61
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_SF@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	676254
playerID	676254
playerName	Ryan Walker
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SF
teamID	24

20260506_TEX@NYY

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 5, "confidence": 0.6, "home_win_probability": 0.6, "away_win_probability": 0.4, "predicted_score_text": "TEX 2 - 5 NYY", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to final winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "predicted_score_text": "TEX 3 - 4 NYY", "confidence": 0.6, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score", "final_prediction_synced": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "TEX 3 - 4 NYY", "winner": "NYY"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "TEX 2 - 5 NYY", "winner": "NYY"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": -1, "home_run_delta": 1, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"}}

Away Team: TEX

Kyle Higashioka (543309) · BATTER · C · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 13

All-history rows before 20260506: 13

System season_avg: 0.1910

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1915

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.077	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.615	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.615	3.000	0.385	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.176	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.191	0.000	0.059	0.250
predicted_BB	0.462	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.462	1.000	-0.462	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.550	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.692	0.000	0.308	1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.240	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.283	0.250	-0.033	0.000
predicted_R	0.308	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.308	0.000	-0.308	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.308	1.000	-0.308	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.254	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.277	0.000	-0.027	0.250
predicted_SO	1.154	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.154	0.000	-1.154	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.077	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.615	-
predicted_AVG	0.176	-
predicted_BB	0.462	-
predicted_H	0.550	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.240	-
predicted_R	0.308	-
predicted_RBI	0.220	-
predicted_SLG	0.254	-
predicted_SO	1.154	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.117	0.040
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.688	0.073
predicted_AVG	0.176	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.373	-0.089
predicted_H	0.618	0.068
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.047	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.240	0.000
predicted_R	0.218	-0.090
predicted_RBI	0.245	0.025
predicted_SLG	0.254	0.000
predicted_SO	1.178	0.024

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.69), rates preserved: AVG=0.168 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	0.1579	0.2000	0.2105	0.1579	0.0000	0.0526	0.0526	0.3158
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	12.000	0.1892	0.2683	0.2973	0.1892	0.0270	0.0811	0.1081	0.3243
season	0.20	13	-	47.000	9.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	6.000	15.000	0.1915	0.2830	0.2766	0.1915	0.0213	0.0851	0.1277	0.3191

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1390
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7280
predicted_AVG	0.1756
predicted_BB	0.3250
predicted_H	0.6550
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0510
predicted_OBP	0.2405
predicted_R	0.1690
predicted_RBI	0.2580
predicted_SLG	0.2541
predicted_SO	1.1910

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0770	0.1390	0.1173	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6150	3.7280	3.6885	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1760	0.1756	0.1757	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4620	0.3250	0.3730	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5500	0.6550	0.6182	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0510	0.0471	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2400	0.2405	0.2403	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3080	0.1690	0.2177	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2200	0.2580	0.2447	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2540	0.2541	0.2541	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1540	1.1910	1.1781	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.191

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260503_TEX@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	543309
playerID	543309
playerName	Kyle Higashioka
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	TEX
teamID	28

Brandon Nimmo (607043) · BATTER · DH · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 33

All-history rows before 20260506: 33

System season_avg: 0.3000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.212	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.212	0.000	-0.212	0.000
predicted_3B	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_AB	3.970	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.939	4.000	-0.939	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.367	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.300	0.250	-0.300	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.394	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.394	0.000	0.606	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_H	1.460	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.182	1.000	-1.182	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.121	0.000	-0.121	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.448	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.374	0.250	-0.124	0.000
predicted_R	0.485	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.485	0.000	-0.485	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.364	0.000	-0.364	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.419	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.462	0.250	-0.462	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.879	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.879	2.000	0.121	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.212	-
predicted_3B	0.030	-
predicted_AB	3.970	-
predicted_AVG	0.367	-
predicted_BB	0.394	-
predicted_H	1.460	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.448	-
predicted_R	0.485	-
predicted_RBI	0.110	-
predicted_SLG	0.419	-
predicted_SO	0.879	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-0.069
predicted_3B	0.014	-0.016
predicted_AB	3.634	-0.336
predicted_AVG	0.367	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.399	0.005
predicted_H	1.335	-0.125
predicted_HBP	0.148	-
predicted_HR	0.021	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.448	0.000
predicted_R	0.419	-0.066
predicted_RBI	0.102	-0.008
predicted_SLG	0.419	0.000
predicted_SO	0.754	-0.125

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.97), rates preserved: AVG=0.336 HR/AB=0.005

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.970

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	7.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	0.4375	0.5263	0.4375	0.4375	0.0000	0.0000	0.1250	0.1875
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	11.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	7.000	0.3143	0.3902	0.3714	0.3143	0.0000	0.0286	0.1143	0.2000
season	0.20	33	-	130.000	39.000	7.000	1.000	4.000	12.000	16.000	13.000	29.000	0.3000	0.3741	0.4615	0.3000	0.0308	0.0923	0.1000	0.2231

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1060
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.4530
predicted_AVG	0.3669
predicted_BB	0.4010
predicted_H	1.2670
predicted_HBP	0.1480
predicted_HR	0.0210
predicted_OBP	0.4482
predicted_R	0.3830
predicted_RBI	0.0980
predicted_SLG	0.4192
predicted_SO	0.6870

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2120	0.1060	0.1431	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0300	0.0050	0.0137	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9700	3.4530	3.6340	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3670	0.3669	0.3669	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3940	0.4010	0.3986	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.4600	1.2670	1.3346	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1480	0.1480	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0210	0.0207	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4480	0.4482	0.4481	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4850	0.3830	0.4187	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1100	0.0980	0.1022	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4190	0.4192	0.4191	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8790	0.6870	0.7542	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.3

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260503_TEX@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	607043
playerID	607043
playerName	Brandon Nimmo
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	TEX
teamID	28

Corey Seager (608369) · BATTER · SS · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 34

All-history rows before 20260506: 34

System season_avg: 0.2060

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2063

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.176	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.176	0.000	-0.176	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.706	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.706	4.000	-0.706	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.188	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.206	0.000	-0.206	0.000
predicted_BB	0.559	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.559	1.000	0.441	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.670	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.765	0.000	-0.765	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.176	0.000	-0.176	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.309	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.311	0.200	-0.061	0.050
predicted_R	0.588	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.588	1.000	-0.588	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.278	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.397	0.000	-0.397	0.000
predicted_SO	1.147	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.147	2.000	-0.147	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.176	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.706	-
predicted_AVG	0.188	-
predicted_BB	0.559	-
predicted_H	0.670	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.309	-
predicted_R	0.588	-
predicted_RBI	0.130	-
predicted_SLG	0.278	-
predicted_SO	1.147	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.210	0.034
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.719	0.013
predicted_AVG	0.188	0.000
predicted_BB	0.620	0.060
predicted_H	0.690	0.020
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.033	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.309	-0.000
predicted_R	0.409	-0.179
predicted_RBI	0.133	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.278	0.000
predicted_SO	1.176	0.029

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.72), rates preserved: AVG=0.186 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	6.000	0.1667	0.3182	0.2222	0.1667	0.0000	0.0000	0.2222	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	8.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	12.000	0.2051	0.2955	0.2821	0.2051	0.0000	0.0256	0.1282	0.3077
season	0.20	34	-	126.000	26.000	6.000	6.000	17.000	20.000	19.000	39.000	0.2063	0.3108	0.3968	0.2064	0.0476	0.1349	0.1508	0.3095

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2290
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7260
predicted_AVG	0.1881
predicted_BB	0.6520
predicted_H	0.7010
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0350
predicted_OBP	0.3088
predicted_R	0.3120
predicted_RBI	0.1340
predicted_SLG	0.2781
predicted_SO	1.1910

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1760	0.2290	0.2104	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7060	3.7260	3.7190	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1880	0.1881	0.1881	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5590	0.6520	0.6195	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6700	0.7010	0.6902	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0350	0.0333	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3090	0.3088	0.3089	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5880	0.3120	0.4086	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1300	0.1340	0.1326	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2780	0.2781	0.2781	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1470	1.1910	1.1756	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.206

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260505_TEX@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	608369
playerID	608369
playerName	Corey Seager
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	TEX
teamID	28

Evan Carter (694497) · BATTER · CF · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 30

All-history rows before 20260506: 30

System season_avg: 0.1880

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1875

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	1.000	-0.167	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.200	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.200	3.000	0.800	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.088	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.188	0.333	0.062	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.533	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.533	2.000	-0.533	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.260	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.600	1.000	0.400	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.224	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.307	0.600	-0.057	-0.350
predicted_R	0.367	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.367	1.000	-0.367	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.300	0.000	-0.300	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.156	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.333	0.667	-0.083	-0.417
predicted_SO	0.900	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.900	1.000	1.100	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.200	-
predicted_AVG	0.088	-
predicted_BB	0.533	-
predicted_H	0.260	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.224	-
predicted_R	0.367	-
predicted_RBI	0.060	-
predicted_SLG	0.156	-
predicted_SO	0.900	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.160	-0.007
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.190	-0.010
predicted_AVG	0.088	0.000
predicted_BB	0.520	-0.013
predicted_H	0.274	0.014
predicted_HBP	0.045	-
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.224	-0.000
predicted_R	0.360	-0.007
predicted_RBI	0.060	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.156	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.851	-0.049

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.20), rates preserved: AVG=0.086 HR/AB=0.006

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	0.0588	0.2000	0.1176	0.0588	0.0000	0.0000	0.1765	0.2353
last_10	0.35	10	-	29.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	8.000	0.0690	0.2059	0.1034	0.0690	0.0000	0.0000	0.1379	0.2759
season	0.20	30	-	96.000	18.000	5.000	3.000	9.000	11.000	16.000	27.000	0.1875	0.3070	0.3333	0.1875	0.0312	0.0938	0.1667	0.2812

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1560
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.1850
predicted_AVG	0.0881
predicted_BB	0.5130
predicted_H	0.2810
predicted_HBP	0.0450
predicted_HR	0.0200
predicted_OBP	0.2235
predicted_R	0.3570
predicted_RBI	0.0600
predicted_SLG	0.1558
predicted_SO	0.8240

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.1560	0.1598	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2000	3.1850	3.1902	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.0880	0.0881	0.0881	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5330	0.5130	0.5200	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.2600	0.2810	0.2737	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0450	0.0450	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0200	0.0200	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2240	0.2235	0.2237	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3670	0.3570	0.3605	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0600	0.0600	0.0600	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1560	0.1558	0.1559	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9000	0.8240	0.8506	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.188

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260505_TEX@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	694497
playerID	694497
playerName	Evan Carter
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	TEX
teamID	28

Andrew McCutchen (457705) · BATTER · RF · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 10

All-history rows before 20260506: 10

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	0.800	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.800	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.800	4.000	0.200	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.241	0.667	0.667	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.500	0.417	0.167
predicted_BB	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.550	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.700	2.000	1.300	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.294	0.667	0.667	Hitting_OBP	0.300	0.500	0.367	0.167
predicted_R	0.300	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.300	0.000	0.700	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.300	0.000	-0.300	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.340	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SLG	0.429	0.500	0.571	0.500
predicted_SO	0.900	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.900	0.000	-0.900	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.800	-
predicted_AVG	0.241	-
predicted_BB	0.200	-
predicted_H	0.550	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.294	-
predicted_R	0.300	-
predicted_RBI	0.130	-
predicted_SLG	0.340	-
predicted_SO	0.900	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.139	-0.061
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.741	-0.058
predicted_AVG	0.241	0.000
predicted_BB	0.200	0.000
predicted_H	0.618	0.068
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.049	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.294	-0.000
predicted_R	0.209	-0.091
predicted_RBI	0.149	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.340	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.749	-0.151

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.80), rates preserved: AVG=0.221 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 10

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	13.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	0.2308	0.2857	0.2308	0.2308	0.0000	0.0000	0.0769	0.1538
last_10	0.35	10	-	28.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	9.000	0.2500	0.3000	0.4286	0.2500	0.0357	0.1071	0.0714	0.3214
season	0.20	10	-	28.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	9.000	0.2500	0.3000	0.4286	0.2500	0.0357	0.1071	0.0714	0.3214

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1060
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.7100
predicted_AVG	0.2414
predicted_BB	0.2000
predicted_H	0.6540
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0530
predicted_OBP	0.2936
predicted_R	0.1600
predicted_RBI	0.1600
predicted_SLG	0.3396
predicted_SO	0.6670

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.1060	0.1389	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.8000	2.7100	2.7415	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2410	0.2414	0.2413	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5500	0.6540	0.6176	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0530	0.0485	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2940	0.2936	0.2937	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3000	0.1600	0.2090	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1300	0.1600	0.1495	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3400	0.3396	0.3397	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9000	0.6670	0.7486	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	10
Season rows before report date	10
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	10
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260505_TEX@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	457705
playerID	457705
playerName	Andrew McCutchen
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	TEX
teamID	28

Josh Jung (673962) · BATTER · 3B · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 31

All-history rows before 20260506: 31

System season_avg: 0.3390

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3390

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.387	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.387	0.000	-0.387	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.806	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.806	5.000	0.194	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.392	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.339	0.600	-0.339	-0.600
predicted_BB	0.323	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.323	0.000	-0.323	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.032	0.000	-0.032	0.000
predicted_H	1.440	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.290	3.000	-1.290	-3.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.129	0.000	-0.129	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.417	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.392	0.600	-0.392	-0.600
predicted_R	0.419	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.419	1.000	-0.419	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.680	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.613	0.000	-0.613	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.032	0.000	-0.032	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.514	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.542	0.600	-0.542	-0.600
predicted_SO	0.581	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.581	0.000	1.419	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.387	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.806	-
predicted_AVG	0.392	-
predicted_BB	0.323	-
predicted_H	1.440	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.417	-
predicted_R	0.419	-
predicted_RBI	0.680	-
predicted_SLG	0.514	-
predicted_SO	0.581	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.340	-0.047
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.024	0.218
predicted_AVG	0.392	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.229	-0.094
predicted_H	1.559	0.119
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.063	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.417	0.000
predicted_R	0.332	-0.087
predicted_RBI	0.733	0.053
predicted_SLG	0.514	0.000
predicted_SO	0.435	-0.146

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.02), rates preserved: AVG=0.387 HR/AB=0.016

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	2.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	2.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	22.000	9.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	0.4091	0.4091	0.4545	0.4091	0.0000	0.1818	0.0000	0.0454
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	16.000	4.000	1.000	8.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	0.4000	0.4419	0.5750	0.4000	0.0250	0.2000	0.0750	0.1000
season	0.20	31	-	118.000	40.000	12.000	4.000	19.000	13.000	10.000	18.000	0.3390	0.3923	0.5424	0.3390	0.0339	0.1610	0.0848	0.1525

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3140
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.1410
predicted_AVG	0.3919
predicted_BB	0.1790
predicted_H	1.6230
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.0640
predicted_OBP	0.4172
predicted_R	0.2850
predicted_RBI	0.7620
predicted_SLG	0.5143
predicted_SO	0.3560

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3870	0.3140	0.3396	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8060	4.1410	4.0237	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3920	0.3919	0.3919	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3230	0.1790	0.2294	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.4400	1.6230	1.5590	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0640	0.0626	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4170	0.4172	0.4171	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4190	0.2850	0.3319	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6800	0.7620	0.7333	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5140	0.5143	0.5142	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5810	0.3560	0.4347	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.339

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.6
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260505_TEX@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	673962
playerID	673962
playerName	Josh Jung
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	TEX
teamID	28

Jake Burger (669394) · BATTER · 1B · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 34

All-history rows before 20260506: 34

System season_avg: 0.2060

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2059

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.147	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.147	0.000	-0.147	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	4.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.155	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.206	0.000	0.044	0.250
predicted_BB	0.176	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.176	1.000	-0.176	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.520	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.824	0.000	0.176	1.000
predicted_HR	0.130	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.147	0.000	0.853	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.203	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.243	0.200	0.007	0.050
predicted_R	0.353	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.353	0.000	0.647	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.300	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	0.529	1.000	1.471	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.311	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SLG	0.353	0.000	0.647	1.000
predicted_SO	1.235	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.235	0.000	-1.235	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.147	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.155	-
predicted_BB	0.176	-
predicted_H	0.520	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.203	-
predicted_R	0.353	-
predicted_RBI	0.300	-
predicted_SLG	0.311	-
predicted_SO	1.235	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.152	0.005
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.954	-0.046
predicted_AVG	0.155	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.212	0.036
predicted_H	0.577	0.057
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.146	0.016
predicted_OBP	0.203	-0.000
predicted_R	0.354	0.001
predicted_RBI	0.334	0.034
predicted_SLG	0.311	0.000
predicted_SO	1.160	-0.075

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.144 HR/AB=0.036

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	0.1500	0.1905	0.3500	0.1500	0.0500	0.1000	0.0500	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	12.000	0.1316	0.1951	0.2368	0.1316	0.0263	0.0526	0.0790	0.3158
season	0.20	34	-	136.000	28.000	5.000	5.000	18.000	12.000	6.000	42.000	0.2059	0.2431	0.3529	0.2059	0.0368	0.1323	0.0441	0.3088

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1540
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.9300
predicted_AVG	0.1547
predicted_BB	0.2320
predicted_H	0.6080
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.1540
predicted_OBP	0.2026
predicted_R	0.3550
predicted_RBI	0.3530
predicted_SLG	0.3110
predicted_SO	1.1190

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1470	0.1540	0.1516	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0000	3.9300	3.9545	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1550	0.1547	0.1548	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1760	0.2320	0.2124	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5200	0.6080	0.5772	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1540	0.1456	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2030	0.2026	0.2027	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3530	0.3550	0.3543	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3000	0.3530	0.3344	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3110	0.3110	0.3110	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2350	1.1190	1.1596	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.206

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260505_TEX@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	669394
playerID	669394
playerName	Jake Burger
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	TEX
teamID	28

Alejandro Osuna (696030) · BATTER · LF · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 7

All-history rows before 20260506: 7

System season_avg: 0.1330

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1333

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.500	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	2.143	1.000	1.857	3.000
predicted_AVG	0.114	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_BB	0.667	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.571	0.000	-0.571	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_H	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.359	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.381	0.500	-0.381	-0.500
predicted_R	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.192	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_SO	0.667	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.571	0.000	-0.571	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.114	-
predicted_BB	0.667	-
predicted_H	0.200	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.359	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.140	-
predicted_SLG	0.192	-
predicted_SO	0.667	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.168	0.001
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.285	-0.215
predicted_AVG	0.114	0.000
predicted_BB	0.555	-0.112
predicted_H	0.231	0.031
predicted_HBP	0.336	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.359	0.000
predicted_R	0.278	-0.055
predicted_RBI	0.158	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.192	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.671	0.004

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.092 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	11.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	0.0909	0.3333	0.1818	0.0909	0.0909	0.1818	0.3636
last_10	0.35	7	-	15.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	0.1333	0.3810	0.2000	0.1333	0.0667	0.2667	0.2667
season	0.20	7	-	15.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	0.1333	0.3810	0.2000	0.1333	0.0667	0.2667	0.2667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1680
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.1690
predicted_AVG	0.1142
predicted_BB	0.4950
predicted_H	0.2480
predicted_HBP	0.3360
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.3595
predicted_R	0.2480
predicted_RBI	0.1680
predicted_SLG	0.1918
predicted_SO	0.6730

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.1680	0.1677	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.5000	2.1690	2.2849	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1140	0.1142	0.1141	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6670	0.4950	0.5552	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.2000	0.2480	0.2312	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.3360	0.3360	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3590	0.3595	0.3593	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.2480	0.2777	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1400	0.1680	0.1582	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1920	0.1918	0.1919	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6670	0.6730	0.6709	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.133

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	1
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260505_TEX@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	696030
playerID	696030
playerName	Alejandro Osuna
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	TEX
teamID	28

Ezequiel Duran (677649) · BATTER · 2B · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 21

All-history rows before 20260506: 21

System season_avg: 0.2990

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2985

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.238	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.238	0.000	-0.238	0.000
predicted_3B	0.048	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.048	1.000	-0.048	-1.000
predicted_AB	3.190	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.190	4.000	-0.190	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.299	0.750	-0.299	-0.750
predicted_BB	0.381	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.381	1.000	0.619	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.952	3.000	-0.952	-3.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.048	0.000	-0.048	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.473	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.373	0.800	-0.123	-0.550
predicted_R	0.476	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.476	1.000	-0.476	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.595	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.448	1.250	-0.448	-1.250
predicted_SO	0.571	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.571	1.000	0.429	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.238	-
predicted_3B	0.048	-
predicted_AB	3.190	-
predicted_AVG	0.390	-
predicted_BB	0.381	-
predicted_H	1.200	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.473	-
predicted_R	0.476	-
predicted_RBI	0.280	-
predicted_SLG	0.595	-
predicted_SO	0.571	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.322	0.084
predicted_3B	0.105	0.057
predicted_AB	3.241	0.051
predicted_AVG	0.390	0.000
predicted_BB	0.473	0.092
predicted_H	1.249	0.049
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.473	0.000
predicted_R	0.600	0.124
predicted_RBI	0.290	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.595	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.461	-0.110

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.24), rates preserved: AVG=0.386 HR/AB=0.003

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	2.000	0.4375	0.5263	0.6875	0.4375	0.0000	0.0625	0.1875	0.1250
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	13.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	6.000	5.000	3.000	0.3824	0.4615	0.5588	0.3824	0.0000	0.1177	0.1471	0.0882
season	0.20	21	-	67.000	20.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	10.000	8.000	12.000	0.2985	0.3733	0.4478	0.2985	0.0149	0.1045	0.1194	0.1791

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3670
predicted_3B	0.1350
predicted_AB	3.2680
predicted_AVG	0.3904
predicted_BB	0.5220
predicted_H	1.2760
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0100
predicted_OBP	0.4730
predicted_R	0.6670
predicted_RBI	0.2950
predicted_SLG	0.5945
predicted_SO	0.4020

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2380	0.3670	0.3218	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0480	0.1350	0.1046	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1900	3.2680	3.2407	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3900	0.3904	0.3903	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3810	0.5220	0.4727	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2000	1.2760	1.2494	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0100	0.0100	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4730	0.4730	0.4730	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4760	0.6670	0.6001	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2800	0.2950	0.2898	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5950	0.5945	0.5947	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5710	0.4020	0.4612	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.299

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	1
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.75
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260505_TEX@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	677649
playerID	677649
playerName	Ezequiel Duran
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	TEX
teamID	28

Nathan Eovaldi (543135) · PITCHER · Starter · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 7

All-history rows before 20260506: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	5.000	5.000	-	Pitching_ER	3.000	0.000	2.000	5.000
predicted_IP	5.000	5.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.600	7.000	-0.600	-2.000
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_SO	5.571	7.000	-2.571	-4.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 5.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	31.000	10.000	27.000	7.000	27.000	6.000	2.9032	1.0968	0.3226	0.8710	0.2258	0.8710	0.1935
last_10	0.35	7	39.667	21.000	43.000	10.000	39.000	9.000	4.7647	1.3361	0.5294	1.0840	0.2521	0.9832	0.2269
season	0.20	7	39.667	21.000	43.000	10.000	39.000	9.000	4.7647	1.3361	0.5294	1.0840	0.2521	0.9832	0.2269

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.4190
predicted_ER	2.5770
predicted_ERA	3.9270
predicted_H	5.8370
predicted_HR	1.2520
predicted_IP	5.9070
predicted_SO	5.5090
predicted_WHIP	1.2284

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	1.4190	1.2723	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	5.0000	2.5770	3.4250	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.9270	3.9270	form_only
predicted_H	5.0000	5.8370	5.5441	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	2.0000	1.2520	1.5138	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.0000	5.9070	5.5896	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	5.5090	4.6309	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2284	1.2284	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.0
H	5
R	5
ER	5
BB	1
SO	3
HR	2
BF	22
Pitches	95

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	26
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.76
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	6
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	7.0
Pitching_Pitches	102
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	7
Pitching_Strikes	70
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260429_NYY@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	543135
playerID	543135
playerName	Nathan Eovaldi
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	TEX
teamID	28

Cole Winn (668390) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 15

All-history rows before 20260506: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.533	1.000	-0.533	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.787	0.200	0.213	0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.067	1.000	-0.067	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	5.000	5.000	1.000	6.000	1.000	11.2500	1.5000	1.2500	1.2500	0.2500	1.5000	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	8.667	8.000	8.000	4.000	11.000	3.000	8.3077	1.3846	0.9231	0.9231	0.4615	1.2692	0.3462
season	0.20	15	13.667	8.000	12.000	6.000	16.000	3.000	5.2683	1.3171	0.5854	0.8780	0.4390	1.1707	0.2195

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3060
predicted_ER	0.8480
predicted_ERA	9.0239
predicted_H	0.8970
predicted_HR	0.2350
predicted_IP	0.8460
predicted_SO	1.1440
predicted_WHIP	1.4230

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3060	0.1989	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.8480	0.5512	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	9.0239	9.0239	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8970	0.5831	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2350	0.1527	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.8460	0.8999	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1440	1.0936	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4230	1.4230	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	5.27
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	25
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	17
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260501_TEX@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	668390
playerID	668390
playerName	Cole Winn
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TEX
teamID	28

Jacob Latz (656641) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 14

All-history rows before 20260506: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.179	1.000	-0.179	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.071	1.000	-1.071	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	5.000	0.000	0.0000	0.1667	0.0000	0.1667	0.0000	0.8333	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.667	2.000	5.000	1.000	9.000	1.000	1.6875	0.5625	0.1875	0.4688	0.0938	0.8438	0.0938
season	0.20	14	17.667	2.000	5.000	3.000	15.000	1.000	1.0189	0.4528	0.1132	0.2830	0.1698	0.8491	0.0566

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.0780
predicted_ER	0.1030
predicted_ERA	0.7944
predicted_H	0.3450
predicted_HR	0.0510
predicted_IP	1.1660
predicted_SO	0.9790
predicted_WHIP	0.3624

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.0780	0.4007	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1030	0.0669	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.7944	0.7944	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.3450	0.2242	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0510	0.0331	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.1660	1.1079	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.9790	0.6363	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.3624	0.3624	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.02
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260501_TEX@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	656641
playerID	656641
playerName	Jacob Latz
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TEX
teamID	28

Jakob Junis (596001) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 14

All-history rows before 20260506: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.214	0.000	-0.214
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.079	1.000	-0.079
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.429	0.000	-0.429

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.0000	0.4000	0.0000	0.4000	0.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.333	3.000	6.000	4.000	2.000	2.6129	0.9677	0.2903	0.5806	0.3871	0.1935
season	0.20	14	15.333	3.000	7.000	4.000	6.000	1.7609	0.7174	0.1956	0.4565	0.2609	0.3913

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1930
predicted_ER	0.1450
predicted_ERA	1.2667
predicted_H	0.4890
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0310
predicted_SO	0.1500
predicted_WHIP	0.6622

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1930	0.1255	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1450	0.0943	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.2667	1.2667	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.4890	0.3179	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0310	1.0202	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.1500	0.0975	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.6622	0.6622	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	10

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.76
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	9
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260501_TEX@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	596001
playerID	596001
playerName	Jakob Junis
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TEX
teamID	28

Home Team: NYY

Cody Bellinger (641355) · BATTER · LF · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 34

All-history rows before 20260506: 34

System season_avg: 0.2800

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2800

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.294	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.294	2.000	0.706	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.059	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_AB	3.676	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.676	3.000	0.324	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.406	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.280	0.667	-0.030	-0.417
predicted_BB	0.618	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.618	1.000	-0.618	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_H	1.450	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.029	2.000	-0.029	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.147	0.000	-0.147	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.473	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.376	0.750	-0.126	-0.500
predicted_R	0.647	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.647	0.000	0.353	1.000
predicted_RBI	1.510	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.706	3.000	-0.706	-3.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.926	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.512	1.333	-0.012	-0.833
predicted_SO	0.588	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.588	0.000	1.412	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.294	-
predicted_3B	0.059	-
predicted_AB	3.676	-
predicted_AVG	0.406	-
predicted_BB	0.618	-
predicted_H	1.450	-
predicted_HR	0.270	-
predicted_OBP	0.473	-
predicted_R	0.647	-
predicted_RBI	1.510	-
predicted_SLG	0.926	-
predicted_SO	0.588	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.648	0.354
predicted_3B	0.109	0.050
predicted_AB	3.718	0.042
predicted_AVG	0.406	0.000
predicted_BB	0.609	-0.009
predicted_H	1.496	0.046
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.275	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.473	-0.000
predicted_R	0.657	0.010
predicted_RBI	1.554	0.044
predicted_SLG	0.926	0.000
predicted_SO	0.537	-0.051

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.72), rates preserved: AVG=0.402 HR/AB=0.074

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	2.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	2.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=17.0, BvP AVG=0.176)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	-1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	2.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	10.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	11.000	4.000	3.000	2.000	0.5263	0.5652	1.2632	0.5263	0.1053	0.5789	0.1579	0.1053
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	12.000	7.000	1.000	2.000	13.000	5.000	6.000	6.000	0.3243	0.4091	0.7297	0.3243	0.0541	0.3513	0.1622	0.1622
season	0.20	34	-	125.000	35.000	10.000	2.000	5.000	24.000	22.000	21.000	20.000	0.2800	0.3758	0.5120	0.2800	0.0400	0.1920	0.1680	0.1600

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.8390
predicted_3B	0.1360
predicted_AB	3.7400
predicted_AVG	0.4063
predicted_BB	0.6040
predicted_H	1.5200
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.2780
predicted_OBP	0.4727
predicted_R	0.6630
predicted_RBI	1.5780
predicted_SLG	0.9262
predicted_SO	0.5090

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2940	0.8390	0.6482	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0590	0.1360	0.1091	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6760	3.7400	3.7176	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.4060	0.4063	0.4062	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6180	0.6040	0.6089	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.4500	1.5200	1.4955	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2700	0.2780	0.2752	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4730	0.4727	0.4728	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6470	0.6630	0.6574	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	1.5100	1.5780	1.5542	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.9260	0.9262	0.9261	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5880	0.5090	0.5367	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.28

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	2
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260505_TEX@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	641355
playerID	641355
playerName	Cody Bellinger
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	NYY
teamID	19

Paul Goldschmidt (502671) · BATTER · 1B · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 11

All-history rows before 20260506: 11

System season_avg: 0.2050

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2051

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.364	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.364	0.000	-0.364	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.545	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.545	4.000	-0.545	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.226	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.205	0.500	-0.205	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.364	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.364	0.000	-0.364	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.690	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.727	2.000	-0.727	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.182	1.000	-0.182	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.295	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.295	0.500	-0.295	-0.500
predicted_R	0.727	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.727	2.000	-0.727	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.455	1.000	-0.455	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.482	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.462	1.250	-0.462	-1.250
predicted_SO	1.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	2.000	-1.000	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.364	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.545	-
predicted_AVG	0.226	-
predicted_BB	0.364	-
predicted_H	0.690	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.295	-
predicted_R	0.727	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.482	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.359	-0.005
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.645	0.100
predicted_AVG	0.226	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.330	-0.034
predicted_H	0.784	0.094
predicted_HBP	0.057	-
predicted_HR	0.184	0.024
predicted_OBP	0.295	0.000
predicted_R	0.743	0.016
predicted_RBI	0.427	0.047
predicted_SLG	0.482	0.000
predicted_SO	1.029	0.029

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.65), rates preserved: AVG=0.215 HR/AB=0.050

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=21.0, BvP AVG=0.238)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	5.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	5.000	0.2500	0.2857	0.5000	0.2500	0.0500	0.1000	0.0500	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	7.000	3.000	2.000	5.000	7.000	4.000	11.000	0.2059	0.3077	0.4706	0.2059	0.0588	0.1471	0.1177	0.3235
season	0.20	11	-	39.000	8.000	4.000	2.000	5.000	8.000	4.000	11.000	0.2051	0.2955	0.4615	0.2051	0.0513	0.1282	0.1026	0.2821

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3570
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.6990
predicted_AVG	0.2256
predicted_BB	0.3110
predicted_H	0.8340
predicted_HBP	0.0570
predicted_HR	0.1970
predicted_OBP	0.2954
predicted_R	0.7510
predicted_RBI	0.4520
predicted_SLG	0.4820
predicted_SO	1.0440

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3640	0.3570	0.3594	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5450	3.6990	3.6451	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2260	0.2256	0.2257	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3640	0.3110	0.3296	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6900	0.8340	0.7836	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0570	0.0570	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.1970	0.1840	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2950	0.2954	0.2953	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7270	0.7510	0.7426	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.4520	0.4268	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4820	0.4820	0.4820	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0440	1.0286	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.205

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260505_TEX@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	502671
playerID	502671
playerName	Paul Goldschmidt
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	NYY
teamID	19

Aaron Judge (592450) · BATTER · RF · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 36

All-history rows before 20260506: 36

System season_avg: 0.2730

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2734

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	1.000	-0.167	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.556	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.556	3.000	0.444	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.370	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.273	0.333	-0.023	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.778	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.778	1.000	-0.778	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_H	1.260	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.972	1.000	0.028	0.000
predicted_HR	0.420	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.389	0.000	0.611	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.524	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.411	0.500	-0.161	-0.250
predicted_R	0.917	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.917	1.000	0.083	0.000
predicted_RBI	1.110	4.000	4.000	Hitting_RBI	0.750	0.000	3.250	4.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.139	0.000	-0.139	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.810	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SLG	0.648	0.667	0.352	0.333
predicted_SO	1.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.222	2.000	-1.222	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.556	-
predicted_AVG	0.370	-
predicted_BB	0.778	-
predicted_H	1.260	-
predicted_HR	0.420	-
predicted_OBP	0.524	-
predicted_R	0.917	-
predicted_RBI	1.110	-
predicted_SLG	0.810	-
predicted_SO	1.222	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.207	0.040
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.498	-0.058
predicted_AVG	0.370	0.000
predicted_BB	0.991	0.213
predicted_H	1.274	0.014
predicted_HBP	0.045	-
predicted_HR	0.428	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.524	-0.000
predicted_R	1.185	0.268
predicted_RBI	1.126	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.810	0.000
predicted_SO	1.270	0.048

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.56), rates preserved: AVG=0.358 HR/AB=0.120

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=46.0, BvP AVG=0.304)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	4.000	3.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	7.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	8.000	7.000	7.000	0.4118	0.5833	0.8235	0.4118	0.1177	0.4118	0.4118	0.4118
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	13.000	3.000	5.000	10.000	12.000	9.000	12.000	0.3714	0.5111	0.8857	0.3714	0.1429	0.2857	0.2571	0.3429
season	0.20	36	-	128.000	35.000	6.000	14.000	27.000	33.000	28.000	44.000	0.2734	0.4114	0.6484	0.2734	0.1094	0.2109	0.2188	0.3438

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2280
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.4660
predicted_AVG	0.3700
predicted_BB	1.1060
predicted_H	1.2820
predicted_HBP	0.0450
predicted_HR	0.4330
predicted_OBP	0.5237
predicted_R	1.3290
predicted_RBI	1.1350
predicted_SLG	0.8103
predicted_SO	1.2960

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.2280	0.2067	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5560	3.4660	3.4975	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3700	0.3700	0.3700	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7780	1.1060	0.9912	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2600	1.2820	1.2743	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0450	0.0450	form_only
predicted_HR	0.4200	0.4330	0.4284	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.5240	0.5237	0.5238	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.9170	1.3290	1.1848	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	1.1100	1.1350	1.1262	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.8100	0.8103	0.8102	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2220	1.2960	1.2701	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	4
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.273

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	1
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260505_TEX@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	592450
playerID	592450
playerName	Aaron Judge
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	NYY
teamID	19

Trent Grisham (663757) · BATTER · CF · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 29

All-history rows before 20260506: 29

System season_avg: 0.1630

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1635

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.172	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.172	0.000	-0.172	0.000
predicted_3B	0.034	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.034	0.000	-0.034	0.000
predicted_AB	3.620	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.586	4.000	-0.586	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.216	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.163	0.000	-0.163	0.000
predicted_BB	0.759	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.759	0.000	-0.759	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.034	0.000	-0.034	0.000
predicted_H	0.780	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.586	0.000	-0.586	0.000
predicted_HR	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.103	0.000	-0.103	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.319	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.305	0.000	-0.055	0.250
predicted_R	0.655	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.655	0.000	-0.655	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.610	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.517	0.000	-0.517	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.034	0.000	-0.034	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.504	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.317	0.000	-0.317	0.000
predicted_SO	0.690	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.690	0.000	-0.690	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.172	-
predicted_3B	0.034	-
predicted_AB	3.620	-
predicted_AVG	0.216	-
predicted_BB	0.759	-
predicted_H	0.780	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.319	-
predicted_R	0.655	-
predicted_RBI	0.610	-
predicted_SLG	0.504	-
predicted_SO	0.690	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.405	0.233
predicted_3B	0.016	-0.018
predicted_AB	3.709	0.089
predicted_AVG	0.216	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.678	-0.081
predicted_H	0.799	0.019
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.176	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.319	-0.000
predicted_R	0.868	0.213
predicted_RBI	0.628	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.504	0.000
predicted_SO	0.506	-0.184

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.216 HR/AB=0.048

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, BvP AVG=0.111)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	5.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	6.000	3.000	1.000	0.2632	0.3478	0.6316	0.2632	0.0526	0.2105	0.1579	0.0526
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	7.000	4.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	9.000	6.000	5.000	0.1842	0.2889	0.4474	0.1842	0.0526	0.1316	0.1579	0.1316
season	0.20	29	-	104.000	17.000	5.000	1.000	3.000	15.000	19.000	22.000	20.000	0.1635	0.3047	0.3173	0.1635	0.0289	0.1442	0.2115	0.1923

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.5310
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.7570
predicted_AVG	0.2156
predicted_BB	0.6340
predicted_H	0.8100
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1800
predicted_OBP	0.3186
predicted_R	0.9830
predicted_RBI	0.6370
predicted_SLG	0.5043
predicted_SO	0.4070

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1720	0.5310	0.4053	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0340	0.0070	0.0164	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6200	3.7570	3.7090	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2160	0.2156	0.2157	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7590	0.6340	0.6778	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7800	0.8100	0.7995	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.1800	0.1765	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3190	0.3186	0.3187	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6550	0.9830	0.8682	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6100	0.6370	0.6276	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5040	0.5043	0.5042	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6900	0.4070	0.5060	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.163

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260505_TEX@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	663757
playerID	663757
playerName	Trent Grisham
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	NYY
teamID	19

Austin Wells (669224) · BATTER · C · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 27

All-history rows before 20260506: 27

System season_avg: 0.1930

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1928

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.037	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.037	0.000	-0.037	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.074	2.000	2.000	Hitting_AB	3.074	3.000	-1.074	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.216	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.193	0.000	-0.193	0.000
predicted_BB	0.667	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.667	1.000	0.333	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.560	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.593	0.000	-0.593	0.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.338	0.333	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.250	0.000	0.083
predicted_R	0.370	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.370	0.000	0.630	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.185	0.000	-0.185	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.382	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.313	0.000	-0.313	0.000
predicted_SO	0.741	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.741	1.000	0.259	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.037	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.074	-
predicted_AVG	0.216	-
predicted_BB	0.667	-
predicted_H	0.560	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.338	-
predicted_R	0.370	-
predicted_RBI	0.180	-
predicted_SLG	0.382	-
predicted_SO	0.741	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.018	-0.019
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.244	0.170
predicted_AVG	0.216	0.000
predicted_BB	0.633	-0.034
predicted_H	0.665	0.105
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.167	0.027
predicted_OBP	0.338	-0.000
predicted_R	0.603	0.233
predicted_RBI	0.213	0.033
predicted_SLG	0.382	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.829	0.088

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.24), rates preserved: AVG=0.205 HR/AB=0.051

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	5.000	0.2353	0.3500	0.4118	0.2353	0.0588	0.0588	0.1765	0.2941
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	7.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	6.000	6.000	8.000	0.2059	0.3250	0.3824	0.2059	0.0588	0.0882	0.1765	0.2353
season	0.20	27	-	83.000	16.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	10.000	18.000	20.000	0.1928	0.3333	0.3133	0.1928	0.0361	0.0602	0.2169	0.2410

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0080
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.3350
predicted_AVG	0.2165
predicted_BB	0.6150
predicted_H	0.7220
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1810
predicted_OBP	0.3379
predicted_R	0.7280
predicted_RBI	0.2310
predicted_SLG	0.3818
predicted_SO	0.8770

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0370	0.0080	0.0181	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0740	3.3350	3.2436	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2160	0.2165	0.2163	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6670	0.6150	0.6332	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5600	0.7220	0.6653	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1810	0.1667	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3380	0.3379	0.3379	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3700	0.7280	0.6027	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1800	0.2310	0.2132	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3820	0.3818	0.3819	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7410	0.8770	0.8294	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.193

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	1
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260505_TEX@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	669224
playerID	669224
playerName	Austin Wells
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	NYY
teamID	19

Ryan McMahon (641857) · BATTER · 3B · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 24

All-history rows before 20260506: 24

System season_avg: 0.2120

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2125

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.083	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.333	2.000	2.000	Hitting_AB	3.333	4.000	-1.333	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.316	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.212	0.500	-0.212	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.292	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.292	0.000	0.708	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.870	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.708	2.000	-0.708	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.083	1.000	-0.083	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.329	0.333	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.276	0.500	0.057	-0.167
predicted_R	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	2.000	-0.333	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.375	2.000	-0.375	-2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.042	0.000	-0.042	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.526	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.312	1.250	-0.312	-1.250
predicted_SO	1.125	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.125	1.000	-0.125	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.083	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.333	-
predicted_AVG	0.316	-
predicted_BB	0.292	-
predicted_H	0.870	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.329	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.500	-
predicted_SLG	0.526	-
predicted_SO	1.125	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	0.117
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.599	0.266
predicted_AVG	0.316	0.000
predicted_BB	0.144	-0.148
predicted_H	1.073	0.203
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.159	0.029
predicted_OBP	0.329	-0.000
predicted_R	0.527	0.194
predicted_RBI	0.613	0.113
predicted_SLG	0.526	0.000
predicted_SO	1.007	-0.118

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.60), rates preserved: AVG=0.298 HR/AB=0.044

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-2.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 24

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	0.000	4.000	0.3684	0.3684	0.6316	0.3684	0.0526	0.2105	0.0000	0.2105
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	12.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	6.000	0.000	10.000	0.3077	0.3077	0.5128	0.3077	0.0513	0.1795	0.0000	0.2564
season	0.20	24	-	80.000	17.000	2.000	2.000	9.000	8.000	7.000	27.000	0.2125	0.2759	0.3125	0.2125	0.0250	0.1125	0.0875	0.3375

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2630
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7420
predicted_AVG	0.3160
predicted_BB	0.0650
predicted_H	1.1820
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1740
predicted_OBP	0.3287
predicted_R	0.6310
predicted_RBI	0.6740
predicted_SLG	0.5262
predicted_SO	0.9430

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0830	0.2630	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3330	3.7420	3.5989	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3160	0.3160	0.3160	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2920	0.0650	0.1444	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8700	1.1820	1.0728	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1740	0.1586	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3290	0.3287	0.3288	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.6310	0.5267	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5000	0.6740	0.6131	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5260	0.5262	0.5261	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1250	0.9430	1.0067	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	24
Season rows before report date	24
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	24
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.212

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260505_TEX@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	641857
playerID	641857
playerName	Ryan McMahon
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	NYY
teamID	19

Jasson Domínguez (691176) · BATTER · DH · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 7

All-history rows before 20260506: 7

System season_avg: 0.2310

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2308

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.714	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.714	4.000	0.286	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.252	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.231	0.000	0.019	0.250
predicted_BB	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.900	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.857	0.000	0.143	1.000
predicted_HR	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.315	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.286	0.000	-0.036	0.250
predicted_R	0.429	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.429	0.000	0.571	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.660	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.571	0.000	-0.571	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.483	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.423	0.000	-0.173	0.250
predicted_SO	0.429	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.429	0.000	-0.429	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.286	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.714	-
predicted_AVG	0.252	-
predicted_BB	0.143	-
predicted_H	0.900	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.315	-
predicted_R	0.429	-
predicted_RBI	0.660	-
predicted_SLG	0.483	-
predicted_SO	0.429	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.320	0.034
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.681	-0.033
predicted_AVG	0.252	0.000
predicted_BB	0.160	0.017
predicted_H	0.915	0.015
predicted_HBP	0.169	-
predicted_HR	0.169	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.315	-0.000
predicted_R	0.480	0.051
predicted_RBI	0.670	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.483	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.361	-0.068

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.246 HR/AB=0.046

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	5.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	0.2778	0.3500	0.5556	0.2778	0.0556	0.2222	0.0556	0.0556
last_10	0.35	7	-	26.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	0.2308	0.2857	0.4231	0.2308	0.0385	0.1538	0.0385	0.1154
season	0.20	7	-	26.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	0.2308	0.2857	0.4231	0.2308	0.0385	0.1538	0.0385	0.1154

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3380
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.6630
predicted_AVG	0.2520
predicted_BB	0.1690
predicted_H	0.9230
predicted_HBP	0.1690
predicted_HR	0.1690
predicted_OBP	0.3146
predicted_R	0.5070
predicted_RBI	0.6760
predicted_SLG	0.4827
predicted_SO	0.3240

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2860	0.3380	0.3198	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7140	3.6630	3.6808	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2520	0.2520	0.2520	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1430	0.1690	0.1599	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9000	0.9230	0.9150	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1690	0.1690	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.1690	0.1694	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3150	0.3146	0.3147	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4290	0.5070	0.4797	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6600	0.6760	0.6704	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4830	0.4827	0.4828	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4290	0.3240	0.3608	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.231

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260505_TEX@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	691176
playerID	691176
playerName	Jasson Domínguez
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	NYY
teamID	19

Jazz Chisholm Jr. (665862) · BATTER · 2B · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 33

All-history rows before 20260506: 33

System season_avg: 0.2180

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2177

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.152	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.152	0.000	-0.152	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.758	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.758	4.000	0.242	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.252	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.218	0.250	-0.218	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.455	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.455	0.000	-0.455	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.061	0.000	-0.061	0.000
predicted_H	0.880	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.818	1.000	-0.818	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.121	1.000	-0.121	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.351	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.305	0.250	-0.305	-0.250
predicted_R	0.515	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.515	1.000	-0.515	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.520	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.394	1.000	-0.394	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.303	0.000	-0.303	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.415	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.355	1.000	-0.355	-1.000
predicted_SO	1.121	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.121	1.000	-1.121	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.152	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.758	-
predicted_AVG	0.252	-
predicted_BB	0.455	-
predicted_H	0.880	-
predicted_HR	0.180	-
predicted_OBP	0.351	-
predicted_R	0.515	-
predicted_RBI	0.520	-
predicted_SLG	0.415	-
predicted_SO	1.121	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.072	-0.080
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.640	-0.118
predicted_AVG	0.252	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.571	0.116
predicted_H	0.893	0.013
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.183	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.351	-0.000
predicted_R	0.622	0.107
predicted_RBI	0.525	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.415	0.000
predicted_SO	0.892	-0.229

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.76), rates preserved: AVG=0.238 HR/AB=0.049

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=13.0, BvP AVG=0.077)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	4.000	3.000	0.2941	0.4091	0.4706	0.2941	0.0588	0.1765	0.2353	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	8.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	6.000	5.000	8.000	0.2162	0.3023	0.3784	0.2162	0.0541	0.1351	0.1351	0.2162
season	0.20	33	-	124.000	27.000	5.000	4.000	13.000	17.000	15.000	37.000	0.2177	0.3050	0.3548	0.2177	0.0323	0.1048	0.1210	0.2984

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0290
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.5770
predicted_AVG	0.2516
predicted_BB	0.6340
predicted_H	0.9000
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.1850
predicted_OBP	0.3509
predicted_R	0.6800
predicted_RBI	0.5280
predicted_SLG	0.4152
predicted_SO	0.7680

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1520	0.0290	0.0721	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7580	3.5770	3.6403	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2520	0.2516	0.2517	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4550	0.6340	0.5714	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8800	0.9000	0.8930	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1800	0.1850	0.1832	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3510	0.3509	0.3509	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5150	0.6800	0.6223	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5200	0.5280	0.5252	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4150	0.4152	0.4151	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1210	0.7680	0.8916	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.218

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260505_TEX@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	665862
playerID	665862
playerName	Jazz Chisholm Jr.
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	NYY
teamID	19

José Caballero (676609) · BATTER · SS · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 35

All-history rows before 20260506: 35

System season_avg: 0.2600

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2602

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.171	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.171	0.000	-0.171	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.514	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.514	4.000	-0.514	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.242	0.667	0.667	Hitting_AVG	0.260	0.250	0.407	0.417
predicted_BB	0.171	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.171	0.000	-0.171	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.114	0.000	-0.114	0.000
predicted_H	0.700	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.914	1.000	1.086	1.000
predicted_HR	0.150	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.114	0.000	0.886	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.314	0.667	0.667	Hitting_OBP	0.311	0.250	0.356	0.417
predicted_R	0.486	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.486	1.000	0.514	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.290	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.371	0.000	0.629	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.371	0.000	-0.371	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.441	1.667	1.667	Hitting_SLG	0.407	0.250	1.260	1.417
predicted_SO	0.771	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.771	0.000	-0.771	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.171	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.514	-
predicted_AVG	0.242	-
predicted_BB	0.171	-
predicted_H	0.700	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.314	-
predicted_R	0.486	-
predicted_RBI	0.290	-
predicted_SLG	0.441	-
predicted_SO	0.771	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.163	-0.008
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.536	0.022
predicted_AVG	0.242	0.000
predicted_BB	0.244	0.073
predicted_H	0.803	0.103
predicted_HBP	0.088	-
predicted_HR	0.171	0.021
predicted_OBP	0.314	-0.000
predicted_R	0.660	0.174
predicted_RBI	0.335	0.045
predicted_SLG	0.441	0.000
predicted_SO	0.579	-0.192

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.54), rates preserved: AVG=0.227 HR/AB=0.048

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, BvP AVG=0.429)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	3.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	2.000	2.000	0.2222	0.3000	0.4444	0.2222	0.0556	0.1111	0.1111	0.1111
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	9.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	6.000	2.000	4.000	0.2571	0.3333	0.4571	0.2571	0.0571	0.0857	0.0571	0.1143
season	0.20	35	-	123.000	32.000	6.000	4.000	13.000	17.000	6.000	27.000	0.2602	0.3106	0.4065	0.2602	0.0325	0.1057	0.0488	0.2195

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1590
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.5480
predicted_AVG	0.2420
predicted_BB	0.2830
predicted_H	0.8590
predicted_HBP	0.0880
predicted_HR	0.1830
predicted_OBP	0.3138
predicted_R	0.7540
predicted_RBI	0.3590
predicted_SLG	0.4413
predicted_SO	0.4750

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1710	0.1590	0.1632	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5140	3.5480	3.5361	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2420	0.2420	0.2420	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1710	0.2830	0.2438	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7000	0.8590	0.8034	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0880	0.0880	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1830	0.1714	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3140	0.3138	0.3139	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4860	0.7540	0.6602	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2900	0.3590	0.3348	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4410	0.4413	0.4412	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7710	0.4750	0.5786	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.26

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260505_TEX@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	676609
playerID	676609
playerName	José Caballero
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	NYY
teamID	19

Will Warren (701542) · PITCHER · Starter · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 7

All-history rows before 20260506: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.429	1.000	-1.429	-1.000
predicted_IP	6.000	6.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.114	6.100	0.886	-0.100
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_SO	6.571	9.000	-3.571	-6.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 6.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	27.667	7.000	23.000	6.000	37.000	2.000	2.2771	1.0482	0.2530	0.8313	0.2169	1.3374	0.0723
last_10	0.35	7	37.667	10.000	32.000	8.000	46.000	4.000	2.3894	1.0619	0.2655	0.8496	0.2124	1.2212	0.1062
season	0.20	7	37.667	10.000	32.000	8.000	46.000	4.000	2.3894	1.0619	0.2655	0.8496	0.2124	1.2212	0.1062

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.1680
predicted_ER	1.4160
predicted_ERA	2.3389
predicted_H	4.5850
predicted_HR	0.4960
predicted_IP	5.4500
predicted_SO	6.9400
predicted_WHIP	1.0557

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	1.1680	1.4592	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	1.4160	0.9204	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.3389	2.3389	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	4.5850	3.3303	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.4960	0.3224	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	6.0000	5.4500	5.6425	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	6.9400	5.5610	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0557	1.0557	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	6.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	2
SO	3
HR	0
BF	21
Pitches	83

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	23
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	2.39
Pitching_Flyouts	4
Pitching_Groundouts	4
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.1
Pitching_Pitches	94
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	9
Pitching_Strikes	60
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260501_BAL@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	701542
playerID	701542
playerName	Will Warren
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	NYY
teamID	19

Brent Headrick (687396) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 19

All-history rows before 20260506: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.158	0.000	1.842	2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.805	1.100	0.195	-0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.053	3.000	-0.053	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.333	1.000	4.000	1.000	6.000	1.4211	0.7895	0.1579	0.6316	0.1579	0.9474
last_10	0.35	10	11.000	2.000	9.000	2.000	8.000	1.6364	1.0000	0.1818	0.8182	0.1818	0.7273
season	0.20	19	18.333	3.000	17.000	6.000	20.000	1.4727	1.2545	0.1636	0.9273	0.3273	1.0909

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2300
predicted_ER	0.1920
predicted_ERA	1.5068
predicted_H	0.8680
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.1480
predicted_SO	1.0320
predicted_WHIP	0.9562

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2300	0.1495	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.1920	0.8248	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.5068	1.5068	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.8680	1.2642	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0000	0.3500	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.1480	1.0962	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0320	1.0208	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9562	0.9562	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	2
ER	2
BB	0
SO	1
HR	1
BF	5
Pitches	21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.47
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	3
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_TEX@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	687396
playerID	687396
playerName	Brent Headrick
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYY
teamID	19

David Bednar (670280) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 15

All-history rows before 20260506: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.400	1.000	-0.400	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.960	1.200	0.040	-0.200
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.200	2.000	-0.200	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.667	2.000	6.000	0.000	5.000	3.1765	1.0588	0.3529	1.0588	0.0000	0.8823
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	4.000	11.000	2.000	13.000	3.6000	1.3000	0.4000	1.1000	0.2000	1.3000
season	0.20	15	15.333	6.000	18.000	5.000	18.000	3.5217	1.5000	0.3913	1.1739	0.3261	1.1739

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1440
predicted_ER	0.4010
predicted_ERA	3.3938
predicted_H	1.1670
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0640
predicted_SO	1.1570
predicted_WHIP	1.2315

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1440	0.0936	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4010	0.2607	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3938	3.3938	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.1670	1.1086	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0640	1.0416	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1570	1.1020	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2315	1.2315	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	3.52
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	3
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.2
Pitching_Pitches	26
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	18
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_TEX@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	670280
playerID	670280
playerName	David Bednar
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYY
teamID	19

Fernando Cruz (518585) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 17

All-history rows before 20260506: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.235	0.000	-0.235	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.529	1.000	0.471	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.176	1.000	0.824	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.667	0.000	4.000	2.000	5.000	0.000	0.0000	1.2857	0.0000	0.8571	0.4286	1.0714	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.333	3.000	10.000	6.000	12.000	2.000	3.2400	1.9200	0.3600	1.2000	0.7200	1.4400	0.2400
season	0.20	17	13.667	4.000	11.000	10.000	20.000	2.000	2.6341	1.5366	0.2927	0.8049	0.7317	1.4634	0.1463

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5160
predicted_ER	0.1610
predicted_ERA	1.6608
predicted_H	0.8430
predicted_HR	0.0990
predicted_IP	0.8720
predicted_SO	1.1160
predicted_WHIP	1.5579

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.5160	0.6854	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1610	0.1047	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.6608	1.6608	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.8430	0.8980	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0990	0.0644	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.8720	0.9168	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.1160	1.4254	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5579	1.5579	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	2
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.63
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	26
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_TEX@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	518585
playerID	518585
playerName	Fernando Cruz
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYY
teamID	19

20260506_TOR@TB

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "confidence": 0.5594414739984395, "home_win_probability": 0.5594414739984395, "away_win_probability": 0.44055852600156054, "predicted_score_text": "TOR 3 - 4 TB", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to final winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration.", "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score", "final_prediction_synced": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "TOR 3 - 4 TB", "winner": "TB"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "TOR 3 - 4 TB", "winner": "TB"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"}}

Away Team: TOR

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (665489) · BATTER · 1B · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 35

All-history rows before 20260506: 35

System season_avg: 0.3310

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3308

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.714	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.714	4.000	0.286	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.275	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.331	0.250	-0.331	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.486	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.486	0.000	-0.486	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.990	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.229	1.000	-1.229	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.057	0.000	-0.057	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.351	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.416	0.250	-0.416	-0.250
predicted_R	0.600	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.600	0.000	-0.600	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.457	1.000	-0.457	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.057	0.000	-0.057	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.314	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.431	0.250	-0.431	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.514	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.514	1.000	0.486	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.714	-
predicted_AVG	0.275	-
predicted_BB	0.486	-
predicted_H	0.990	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.351	-
predicted_R	0.600	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.314	-
predicted_SO	0.514	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.146	-0.054
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.853	0.139
predicted_AVG	0.275	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.443	-0.043
predicted_H	1.048	0.058
predicted_HBP	0.049	-
predicted_HR	0.011	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.351	-0.000
predicted_R	0.650	0.050
predicted_RBI	0.284	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.314	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.535	0.021

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.85), rates preserved: AVG=0.272 HR/AB=0.003

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=20.0, BvP AVG=0.300)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	0.1905	0.2609	0.1905	0.1905	0.0000	0.0476	0.0952	0.1429
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	13.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	8.000	4.000	5.000	0.3514	0.4286	0.4054	0.3513	0.0000	0.0811	0.1081	0.1351
season	0.20	35	-	130.000	43.000	7.000	2.000	16.000	21.000	17.000	18.000	0.3308	0.4161	0.4308	0.3308	0.0154	0.1231	0.1308	0.1385

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1170
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.9280
predicted_AVG	0.2749
predicted_BB	0.4200
predicted_H	1.0800
predicted_HBP	0.0490
predicted_HR	0.0120
predicted_OBP	0.3506
predicted_R	0.6770
predicted_RBI	0.2920
predicted_SLG	0.3138
predicted_SO	0.5470

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.1170	0.1461	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7140	3.9280	3.8531	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2750	0.2749	0.2749	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4860	0.4200	0.4431	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9900	1.0800	1.0485	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0490	0.0490	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0120	0.0113	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3510	0.3506	0.3507	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6000	0.6770	0.6501	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.2920	0.2843	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3140	0.3138	0.3139	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5140	0.5470	0.5354	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.331

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260504_TOR@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	665489
playerID	665489
playerName	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	TOR
teamID	29

Davis Schneider (676914) · BATTER · LF · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 14

All-history rows before 20260506: 14

System season_avg: 0.1280

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1282

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	1.000	-0.143	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.786	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.786	3.000	0.214	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.102	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.128	0.333	-0.128	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.714	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.714	1.000	0.286	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.357	1.000	-0.357	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.330	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.306	0.500	-0.056	-0.250
predicted_R	0.357	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.357	1.000	-0.357	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.357	2.000	-0.357	-2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.176	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.179	0.667	-0.179	-0.667
predicted_SO	1.143	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.143	2.000	-0.143	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.786	-
predicted_AVG	0.102	-
predicted_BB	0.714	-
predicted_H	0.250	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.330	-
predicted_R	0.357	-
predicted_RBI	0.370	-
predicted_SLG	0.176	-
predicted_SO	1.143	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.174	0.031
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.653	-0.133
predicted_AVG	0.102	0.000
predicted_BB	0.825	0.111
predicted_H	0.259	0.009
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.330	0.000
predicted_R	0.318	-0.039
predicted_RBI	0.386	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.176	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.177	0.034

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.093 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	12.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	6.000	0.0833	0.3529	0.1667	0.0833	0.1667	0.4167	0.5000
last_10	0.35	10	-	27.000	3.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	8.000	12.000	0.1111	0.3143	0.1852	0.1111	0.1482	0.2963	0.4444
season	0.20	14	-	39.000	5.000	2.000	5.000	5.000	10.000	16.000	0.1282	0.3061	0.1795	0.1282	0.1282	0.2564	0.4103

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1900
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.5820
predicted_AVG	0.1020
predicted_BB	0.8840
predicted_H	0.2630
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.3300
predicted_R	0.2970
predicted_RBI	0.3940
predicted_SLG	0.1757
predicted_SO	1.1950

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.1900	0.1736	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.7860	2.5820	2.6534	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1020	0.1020	0.1020	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7140	0.8840	0.8245	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.2500	0.2630	0.2585	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3300	0.3300	0.3300	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3570	0.2970	0.3180	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3700	0.3940	0.3856	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1760	0.1757	0.1758	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1430	1.1950	1.1768	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.128

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260502_TOR@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	676914
playerID	676914
playerName	Davis Schneider
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	TOR
teamID	29

Kazuma Okamoto (672960) · BATTER · 3B · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 35

All-history rows before 20260506: 35

System season_avg: 0.2440

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2443

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.057	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.057	0.000	0.943	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.743	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.743	4.000	0.257	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.312	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.244	0.500	0.256	0.000
predicted_BB	0.457	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.457	0.000	-0.457	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.120	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.914	2.000	1.086	0.000
predicted_HR	0.600	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.286	1.000	0.714	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.388	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.327	0.500	0.173	0.000
predicted_R	0.543	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.543	1.000	0.457	0.000
predicted_RBI	1.130	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.657	1.000	0.343	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.821	1.500	1.500	Hitting_SLG	0.489	1.250	1.011	0.250
predicted_SO	1.257	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.257	2.000	0.743	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.057	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.743	-
predicted_AVG	0.312	-
predicted_BB	0.457	-
predicted_H	1.120	-
predicted_HR	0.600	-
predicted_OBP	0.388	-
predicted_R	0.543	-
predicted_RBI	1.130	-
predicted_SLG	0.821	-
predicted_SO	1.257	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.028	-0.029
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.890	0.147
predicted_AVG	0.312	0.000
predicted_BB	0.484	0.027
predicted_H	1.198	0.078
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.645	0.045
predicted_OBP	0.388	0.000
predicted_R	0.818	0.275
predicted_RBI	1.213	0.083
predicted_SLG	0.821	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.182	-0.075

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.89), rates preserved: AVG=0.308 HR/AB=0.166

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	8.000	0.000	5.000	8.000	7.000	3.000	6.000	0.3810	0.4583	1.0952	0.3810	0.2381	0.3810	0.1429	0.2857
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	10.000	0.000	5.000	12.000	7.000	4.000	10.000	0.2632	0.3333	0.6579	0.2632	0.1316	0.3158	0.1053	0.2632
season	0.20	35	-	131.000	32.000	2.000	10.000	23.000	19.000	16.000	44.000	0.2443	0.3265	0.4885	0.2443	0.0763	0.1756	0.1221	0.3359

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0120
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.9690
predicted_AVG	0.3124
predicted_BB	0.4980
predicted_H	1.2400
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.6690
predicted_OBP	0.3882
predicted_R	0.9660
predicted_RBI	1.2580
predicted_SLG	0.8208
predicted_SO	1.1420

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0570	0.0120	0.0278	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7430	3.9690	3.8899	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3120	0.3124	0.3123	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4570	0.4980	0.4837	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1200	1.2400	1.1980	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.6000	0.6690	0.6449	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3880	0.3882	0.3881	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5430	0.9660	0.8179	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	1.1300	1.2580	1.2132	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.8210	0.8208	0.8209	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2570	1.1420	1.1822	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.244

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260505_TOR@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	672960
playerID	672960
playerName	Kazuma Okamoto
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	TOR
teamID	29

Lenyn Sosa (672820) · BATTER · 2B · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 12

All-history rows before 20260506: 12

System season_avg: 0.2360

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2326

Diff (system - data): 0.0034

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	0.833	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.600	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.583	3.000	0.417	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.260	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.233	0.333	0.017	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.900	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.833	1.000	0.167	0.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.260	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.227	0.333	0.023	-0.083
predicted_R	0.350	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.417	0.000	0.583	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.350	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.411	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.349	0.333	0.151	0.167
predicted_SO	0.800	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.833	0.000	-0.833	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.600	-
predicted_AVG	0.260	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.900	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.260	-
predicted_R	0.350	-
predicted_RBI	0.350	-
predicted_SLG	0.411	-
predicted_SO	0.800	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.201	-0.049
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.717	0.117
predicted_AVG	0.260	0.000
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.954	0.054
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.128	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.260	0.000
predicted_R	0.510	0.160
predicted_RBI	0.369	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.411	0.000
predicted_SO	0.905	0.105

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.72), rates preserved: AVG=0.257 HR/AB=0.034

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	5.000	0.3000	0.3000	0.5000	0.3000	0.0500	0.1000	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	5.000	10.000	0.2222	0.2222	0.3333	0.2222	0.0278	0.1111	0.2778
season	0.20	20	-	72.000	17.000	5.000	1.000	6.000	7.000	16.000	0.2361	0.2361	0.3472	0.2361	0.0139	0.0833	0.2222

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1740
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7800
predicted_AVG	0.2600
predicted_BB	0.0000
predicted_H	0.9830
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1320
predicted_OBP	0.2600
predicted_R	0.5970
predicted_RBI	0.3800
predicted_SLG	0.4111
predicted_SO	0.9610

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.1740	0.2006	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6000	3.7800	3.7170	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2600	0.2600	0.2600	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9000	0.9830	0.9540	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1320	0.1278	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2600	0.2600	0.2600	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3500	0.5970	0.5105	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3500	0.3800	0.3695	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4110	0.4111	0.4111	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8000	0.9610	0.9046	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.236

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260505_TOR@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	672820
playerID	672820
playerName	Lenyn Sosa
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	TOR
teamID	29

Myles Straw (664702) · BATTER · CF · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 13

All-history rows before 20260506: 13

System season_avg: 0.2890

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2895

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.077	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.923	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.923	3.000	0.077	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.233	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.289	0.333	-0.289	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.538	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.538	1.000	0.462	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.580	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.846	1.000	-0.846	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.370	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.391	0.500	-0.141	-0.250
predicted_R	0.769	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.769	0.000	-0.769	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.231	0.000	-0.231	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.396	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.395	0.333	-0.395	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.308	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.308	0.000	0.692	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.077	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.923	-
predicted_AVG	0.233	-
predicted_BB	0.538	-
predicted_H	0.580	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.370	-
predicted_R	0.769	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.396	-
predicted_SO	0.308	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.058	-0.019
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.928	0.005
predicted_AVG	0.233	0.000
predicted_BB	0.654	0.116
predicted_H	0.648	0.068
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.135	0.015
predicted_OBP	0.370	-0.000
predicted_R	0.703	-0.066
predicted_RBI	0.404	0.044
predicted_SLG	0.396	0.000
predicted_SO	0.356	0.048

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.93), rates preserved: AVG=0.221 HR/AB=0.046

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, BvP AVG=0.400)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	2.000	0.2143	0.3684	0.4286	0.2143	0.0714	0.2143	0.2857	0.1429
last_10	0.35	10	-	31.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	7.000	7.000	4.000	0.2258	0.3590	0.3548	0.2258	0.0323	0.0968	0.2258	0.1290
season	0.20	13	-	38.000	11.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	10.000	7.000	4.000	0.2895	0.3913	0.3947	0.2895	0.0263	0.0790	0.1842	0.1053

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0480
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.9300
predicted_AVG	0.2334
predicted_BB	0.7160
predicted_H	0.6840
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1430
predicted_OBP	0.3697
predicted_R	0.6680
predicted_RBI	0.4280
predicted_SLG	0.3960
predicted_SO	0.3820

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0770	0.0480	0.0582	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.9230	2.9300	2.9276	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2330	0.2334	0.2333	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5380	0.7160	0.6537	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5800	0.6840	0.6476	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1430	0.1349	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3700	0.3697	0.3698	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7690	0.6680	0.7034	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.4280	0.4042	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3960	0.3960	0.3960	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3080	0.3820	0.3561	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.289

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260504_TOR@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	664702
playerID	664702
playerName	Myles Straw
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	TOR
teamID	29

George Springer (543807) · BATTER · DH · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 18

All-history rows before 20260506: 18

System season_avg: 0.1910

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1912

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.810	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.778	4.000	0.222	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.211	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.191	0.000	-0.191	0.000
predicted_BB	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_H	0.800	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.722	0.000	-0.722	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.326	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.295	0.200	-0.295	-0.200
predicted_R	0.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.271	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.338	0.000	-0.338	0.000
predicted_SO	0.833	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.833	0.000	1.167	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.222	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.810	-
predicted_AVG	0.211	-
predicted_BB	0.500	-
predicted_H	0.800	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.326	-
predicted_R	0.222	-
predicted_RBI	0.180	-
predicted_SLG	0.271	-
predicted_SO	0.833	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.169	-0.053
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.476	-0.334
predicted_AVG	0.211	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.449	-0.051
predicted_H	0.731	-0.069
predicted_HBP	0.142	-
predicted_HR	0.019	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.326	-0.000
predicted_R	0.211	-0.011
predicted_RBI	0.167	-0.013
predicted_SLG	0.271	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.516	-0.317

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.81), rates preserved: AVG=0.192 HR/AB=0.005

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=18.0, BvP AVG=0.278)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 3.810

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	0.2000	0.3333	0.2000	0.2000	0.0000	0.0000	0.1333	0.0667
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	8.000	3.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	0.2353	0.3333	0.3235	0.2353	0.0000	0.0882	0.1177	0.0882
season	0.20	18	-	68.000	13.000	4.000	2.000	6.000	4.000	9.000	15.000	0.1912	0.2949	0.3382	0.1912	0.0294	0.0882	0.1323	0.2206

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1410
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.2960
predicted_AVG	0.2106
predicted_BB	0.4210
predicted_H	0.6940
predicted_HBP	0.1420
predicted_HR	0.0190
predicted_OBP	0.3256
predicted_R	0.2050
predicted_RBI	0.1600
predicted_SLG	0.2709
predicted_SO	0.3460

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2220	0.1410	0.1694	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8100	3.2960	3.4759	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2110	0.2106	0.2107	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5000	0.4210	0.4486	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8000	0.6940	0.7311	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1420	0.1420	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0190	0.0193	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3260	0.3256	0.3257	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2220	0.2050	0.2109	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1800	0.1600	0.1670	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2710	0.2709	0.2709	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8330	0.3460	0.5164	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.191

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260505_TOR@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	543807
playerID	543807
playerName	George Springer
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	TOR
teamID	29

Tyler Heineman (623168) · BATTER · C · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 17

All-history rows before 20260506: 17

System season_avg: 0.1880

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1875

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.824	3.000	0.176	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.128	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.188	0.000	-0.188	0.000
predicted_BB	0.062	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.529	0.000	-0.529	0.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.235	0.000	-0.235	0.000
predicted_R	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.235	0.000	-0.235	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.128	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.188	0.000	-0.188	0.000
predicted_SO	0.812	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.765	0.000	0.235	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.128	-
predicted_BB	0.062	-
predicted_H	0.290	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.170	-
predicted_R	0.250	-
predicted_RBI	0.050	-
predicted_SLG	0.128	-
predicted_SO	0.812	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.081	0.081
predicted_AVG	0.128	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.030	-0.032
predicted_H	0.361	0.071
predicted_HBP	0.149	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.170	0.000
predicted_R	0.144	-0.106
predicted_RBI	0.057	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.128	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.966	0.154

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.08), rates preserved: AVG=0.117 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	6.000	0.1250	0.1765	0.1250	0.1250	0.0000	0.0000	0.3750
last_10	0.35	10	-	31.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	10.000	0.0968	0.1250	0.0968	0.0968	0.0323	0.0000	0.3226
season	0.20	16	-	48.000	9.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	13.000	0.1875	0.2353	0.1875	0.1875	0.0417	0.0208	0.2708

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.1250
predicted_AVG	0.1276
predicted_BB	0.0130
predicted_H	0.3990
predicted_HBP	0.1490
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.1702
predicted_R	0.0870
predicted_RBI	0.0610
predicted_SLG	0.1276
predicted_SO	1.0490

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.1250	3.0812	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1280	0.1276	0.1277	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0620	0.0130	0.0301	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.2900	0.3990	0.3609	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1490	0.1490	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1700	0.1702	0.1701	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2500	0.0870	0.1440	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0500	0.0610	0.0571	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1280	0.1276	0.1277	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8120	1.0490	0.9660	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.188

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260503_TOR@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	623168
playerID	623168
playerName	Tyler Heineman
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	TOR
teamID	29

Yohendrick Pinango (682818) · BATTER · RF · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 7

All-history rows before 20260506: 7

System season_avg: 0.4760

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.4762

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_AB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	4.000	0.000	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.474	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.476	0.250	-0.143	0.083
predicted_BB	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.190	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.429	1.000	-0.429	0.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.500	0.333	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.500	0.250	-0.167	0.083
predicted_R	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.460	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.571	1.000	-0.571	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.526	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SLG	0.524	0.250	0.476	0.750
predicted_SO	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.286	1.000	-0.286	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.474	-
predicted_BB	0.143	-
predicted_H	1.190	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.500	-
predicted_R	0.143	-
predicted_RBI	0.460	-
predicted_SLG	0.526	-
predicted_SO	0.286	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.159	0.016
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.117	0.117
predicted_AVG	0.474	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.159	0.016
predicted_H	1.395	0.205
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.500	0.000
predicted_R	0.159	0.016
predicted_RBI	0.542	0.082
predicted_SLG	0.526	0.000
predicted_SO	0.318	0.032

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.12), rates preserved: AVG=0.448 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	1.000	1.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	8.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	0.4706	0.5000	0.5294	0.4706	0.1765	0.0588	0.1177
last_10	0.35	7	-	21.000	10.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	0.4762	0.5000	0.5238	0.4762	0.1905	0.0476	0.0952
season	0.20	7	-	21.000	10.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	0.4762	0.5000	0.5238	0.4762	0.1905	0.0476	0.0952

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1670
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.1800
predicted_AVG	0.4737
predicted_BB	0.1670
predicted_H	1.5060
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.5000
predicted_R	0.1670
predicted_RBI	0.5860
predicted_SLG	0.5263
predicted_SO	0.3350

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.1670	0.1586	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.1800	3.1170	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.4740	0.4737	0.4738	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1430	0.1670	0.1586	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1900	1.5060	1.3954	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.5000	0.5000	0.5000	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1430	0.1670	0.1586	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4600	0.5860	0.5419	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5260	0.5263	0.5262	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.2860	0.3350	0.3179	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	1
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.476

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260505_TOR@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	682818
playerID	682818
playerName	Yohendrick Pinango
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	TOR
teamID	29

Ernie Clement (676391) · BATTER · SS · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 35

All-history rows before 20260506: 35

System season_avg: 0.2890

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2887

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.371	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.371	0.000	0.629	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.057	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.057	4.000	-0.057	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.226	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.289	0.250	-0.039	0.000
predicted_BB	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.860	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.171	1.000	-0.171	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.291	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.313	0.250	-0.063	0.000
predicted_R	0.314	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.314	0.000	0.686	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.120	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.257	0.000	0.743	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.295	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.401	0.250	0.099	0.250
predicted_SO	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.371	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.057	-
predicted_AVG	0.226	-
predicted_BB	0.143	-
predicted_H	0.860	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.291	-
predicted_R	0.314	-
predicted_RBI	0.120	-
predicted_SLG	0.295	-
predicted_SO	0.286	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.222	-0.149
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.923	-0.134
predicted_AVG	0.226	0.000
predicted_BB	0.278	0.135
predicted_H	0.867	0.007
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.041	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.291	0.000
predicted_R	0.277	-0.037
predicted_RBI	0.120	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.295	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.264	-0.022

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.06), rates preserved: AVG=0.214 HR/AB=0.010

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 4.057

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	0.2105	0.2857	0.2105	0.2105	0.0000	0.0000	0.1053	0.0526
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	8.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	3.000	0.2105	0.2857	0.3421	0.2105	0.0263	0.0526	0.1053	0.0790
season	0.20	35	-	142.000	41.000	13.000	1.000	9.000	11.000	5.000	10.000	0.2887	0.3129	0.4014	0.2887	0.0070	0.0634	0.0352	0.0704

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1410
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.8510
predicted_AVG	0.2261
predicted_BB	0.3510
predicted_H	0.8710
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0410
predicted_OBP	0.2911
predicted_R	0.2570
predicted_RBI	0.1200
predicted_SLG	0.2947
predicted_SO	0.2520

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3710	0.1410	0.2215	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0570	3.8510	3.9231	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2260	0.2261	0.2261	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1430	0.3510	0.2782	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8600	0.8710	0.8672	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0410	0.0407	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2910	0.2911	0.2911	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3140	0.2570	0.2770	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1200	0.1200	0.1200	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2950	0.2947	0.2948	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.2860	0.2520	0.2639	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.289

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260505_TOR@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	676391
playerID	676391
playerName	Ernie Clement
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	TOR
teamID	29

Patrick Corbin (571578) · PITCHER · Starter · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 5

All-history rows before 20260506: 5

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	4.000	4.000	-	Pitching_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	2.000
predicted_IP	4.000	4.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.700	5.100	-0.700	-1.100
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	-	Pitching_SO	4.000	4.000	1.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 5

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	24.667	10.000	24.000	7.000	20.000	3.000	3.6486	1.2568	0.4054	0.9730	0.2838	0.8108	0.1216
last_10	0.35	5	24.667	10.000	24.000	7.000	20.000	3.000	3.6486	1.2568	0.4054	0.9730	0.2838	0.8108	0.1216
season	0.20	5	24.667	10.000	24.000	7.000	20.000	3.000	3.6486	1.2568	0.4054	0.9730	0.2838	0.8108	0.1216

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.4000
predicted_ER	2.0000
predicted_ERA	3.6486
predicted_H	4.8000
predicted_HR	0.6000
predicted_IP	4.9330
predicted_SO	4.0000
predicted_WHIP	1.2568

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	1.4000	1.2600	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	4.0000	2.0000	2.7000	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.6486	3.6486	form_only
predicted_H	8.0000	4.8000	5.9200	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.6000	0.3900	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.0000	4.9330	4.6064	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	4.0000	4.3500	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2568	1.2568	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	5
Season rows before report date	5
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	5
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.0
H	8
R	4
ER	4
BB	1
SO	5
HR	0
BF	21
Pitches	94

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	1
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	23
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	3.65
Pitching_Flyouts	4
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	6
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.1
Pitching_Pitches	79
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	4
Pitching_Strikes	53
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260501_TOR@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	571578
playerID	571578
playerName	Patrick Corbin
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	TOR
teamID	29

Braydon Fisher (680755) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 17

All-history rows before 20260506: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.353	3.000	-0.353	-3.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.859	0.200	0.141	0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.059	1.000	-0.059	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.333	3.000	4.000	4.000	5.000	0.000	5.0625	1.5000	0.5625	0.7500	0.7500	0.9375	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	5.000	8.000	6.000	6.000	0.000	5.0000	1.5556	0.5556	0.8889	0.6667	0.6667	0.0000
season	0.20	17	18.333	6.000	14.000	7.000	18.000	1.000	2.9455	1.1455	0.3273	0.7636	0.3818	0.9818	0.0546

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6540
predicted_ER	0.5190
predicted_ERA	4.6172
predicted_H	0.8100
predicted_HR	0.0110
predicted_IP	1.0110
predicted_SO	0.8610
predicted_WHIP	1.4486

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.6540	0.4251	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5190	0.3374	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.6172	4.6172	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8100	0.5265	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0110	0.0072	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0110	1.0071	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8610	0.9096	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4486	1.4486	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	10

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	2.95
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_TOR@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	680755
playerID	680755
playerName	Braydon Fisher
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TOR
teamID	29

Jeff Hoffman (656546) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 17

All-history rows before 20260506: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.588	0.000	-0.588	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.853	1.000	0.147	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.706	1.000	-1.706	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	1.000	5.000	1.000	5.000	0.000	1.8000	1.2000	0.2000	1.0000	0.2000	1.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	8.000	13.000	5.000	14.000	1.000	8.0000	2.0000	0.8889	1.4444	0.5556	1.5556	0.1111
season	0.20	17	15.667	10.000	21.000	7.000	29.000	2.000	5.7447	1.7872	0.6383	1.3404	0.4468	1.8511	0.1277

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3550
predicted_ER	0.5020
predicted_ERA	4.7589
predicted_H	1.1620
predicted_HR	0.0610
predicted_IP	0.9490
predicted_SO	1.2950
predicted_WHIP	1.5974

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3550	0.2307	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5020	0.3263	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.7589	4.7589	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.1620	0.7553	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0610	0.0396	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.9490	0.9668	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.2950	0.8417	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5974	1.5974	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.74
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_TOR@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	656546
playerID	656546
playerName	Jeff Hoffman
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TOR
teamID	29

Louis Varland (686973) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 17

All-history rows before 20260506: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.888	0.200	0.112	0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.706	1.000	-0.706	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.667	1.000	5.000	2.000	10.000	1.9286	1.5000	0.2143	1.0714	0.4286	2.1429
last_10	0.35	10	9.667	1.000	8.000	2.000	19.000	0.9310	1.0345	0.1035	0.8276	0.2069	1.9655
season	0.20	17	17.667	1.000	13.000	5.000	29.000	0.5094	1.0189	0.0566	0.7359	0.2830	1.6415

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3110
predicted_ER	0.1390
predicted_ERA	1.2956
predicted_H	0.8880
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	0.9660
predicted_SO	1.9140
predicted_WHIP	1.2409

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3110	0.5521	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1390	0.0904	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.2956	1.2956	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8880	0.5772	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.9660	0.9779	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.9140	1.5941	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2409	1.2409	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	2
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.51
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	7
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	6
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_TOR@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	686973
playerID	686973
playerName	Louis Varland
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TOR
teamID	29

Tyler Rogers (643511) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 17

All-history rows before 20260506: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.176	2.000	-0.176	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.912	0.100	0.088	0.900
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.588	0.000	0.412	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.333	2.000	4.000	0.000	5.000	4.1538	0.9231	0.4615	0.9231	0.0000	1.1539
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	3.000	7.000	1.000	5.000	3.0000	0.8889	0.3333	0.7778	0.1111	0.5556
season	0.20	17	16.667	3.000	12.000	4.000	10.000	1.6200	0.9600	0.1800	0.7200	0.2400	0.6000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.0780
predicted_ER	0.3250
predicted_ERA	3.2432
predicted_H	0.7490
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	0.9010
predicted_SO	0.7510
predicted_WHIP	0.9185

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0780	0.0507	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3250	0.2113	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.2432	3.2432	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.7490	0.8368	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.9010	0.9356	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.7510	0.8381	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9185	0.9185	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	1.62
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	22
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L, BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_TOR@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	643511
playerID	643511
playerName	Tyler Rogers
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TOR
teamID	29

Home Team: TB

Ryan Vilade (668723) · BATTER · RF · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 10

All-history rows before 20260506: 10

System season_avg: 0.3330

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3333

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	2.000	1.000	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.376	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.333	0.500	-0.083	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.080	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.100	1.000	-0.100	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.416	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.375	0.500	-0.125	-0.250
predicted_R	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.500	1.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_RBI	1.070	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.800	3.000	0.200	-2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.546	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.467	2.000	-0.217	-1.750
predicted_SO	0.700	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.700	0.000	-0.700	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.100	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.376	-
predicted_BB	0.200	-
predicted_H	1.080	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.416	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	1.070	-
predicted_SLG	0.546	-
predicted_SO	0.700	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.069	-0.031
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.942	-0.058
predicted_AVG	0.376	0.000
predicted_BB	0.200	0.000
predicted_H	1.090	0.010
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.148	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.416	0.000
predicted_R	0.470	-0.030
predicted_RBI	1.078	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.546	0.000
predicted_SO	0.670	-0.030

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.363 HR/AB=0.049

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 10

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	6.000	0.000	1.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	0.4286	0.4667	0.6429	0.4286	0.0714	0.5000	0.0714	0.2143
last_10	0.35	10	-	30.000	10.000	1.000	1.000	8.000	5.000	2.000	7.000	0.3333	0.3750	0.4667	0.3333	0.0333	0.2667	0.0667	0.2333
season	0.20	10	-	30.000	10.000	1.000	1.000	8.000	5.000	2.000	7.000	0.3333	0.3750	0.4667	0.3333	0.0333	0.2667	0.0667	0.2333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0530
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.9100
predicted_AVG	0.3762
predicted_BB	0.2000
predicted_H	1.0950
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1470
predicted_OBP	0.4163
predicted_R	0.4540
predicted_RBI	1.0820
predicted_SLG	0.5460
predicted_SO	0.6540

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1000	0.0530	0.0694	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	2.9100	2.9415	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3760	0.3762	0.3761	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0800	1.0950	1.0897	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1470	0.1480	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4160	0.4163	0.4162	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.4540	0.4701	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	1.0700	1.0820	1.0778	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5460	0.5460	0.5460	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7000	0.6540	0.6701	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	10
Season rows before report date	10
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	10
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.333

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260504_TOR@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	668723
playerID	668723
playerName	Ryan Vilade
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	TB
teamID	27

Junior Caminero (691406) · BATTER · 3B · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 34

All-history rows before 20260506: 34

System season_avg: 0.2620

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2615

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.088	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.088	0.000	-0.088	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.824	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.824	3.000	0.176	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.274	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.262	0.333	-0.262	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.559	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.559	1.000	-0.559	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_H	1.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.265	0.000	-0.265	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.427	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.353	0.500	-0.353	-0.500
predicted_R	0.618	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.618	0.000	-0.618	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.471	0.000	-0.471	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.509	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.492	0.333	-0.492	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.765	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.765	0.000	1.235	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.088	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.824	-
predicted_AVG	0.274	-
predicted_BB	0.559	-
predicted_H	1.010	-
predicted_HR	0.280	-
predicted_OBP	0.427	-
predicted_R	0.618	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.509	-
predicted_SO	0.765	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.041	-0.047
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.428	-0.396
predicted_AVG	0.274	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.788	0.229
predicted_H	0.925	-0.085
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.259	-0.021
predicted_OBP	0.427	-0.000
predicted_R	0.682	0.064
predicted_RBI	0.331	-0.029
predicted_SLG	0.509	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.792	0.027

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.82), rates preserved: AVG=0.242 HR/AB=0.068

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.824

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	6.000	4.000	0.2857	0.5000	0.5000	0.2857	0.0714	0.0714	0.4286	0.2857
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	9.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	6.000	6.000	8.000	0.2647	0.3750	0.5294	0.2647	0.0882	0.1177	0.1765	0.2353
season	0.20	34	-	130.000	34.000	3.000	9.000	16.000	21.000	19.000	26.000	0.2615	0.3533	0.4923	0.2615	0.0692	0.1231	0.1462	0.2000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0150
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.2150
predicted_AVG	0.2735
predicted_BB	0.9120
predicted_H	0.8790
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.2470
predicted_OBP	0.4269
predicted_R	0.7160
predicted_RBI	0.3150
predicted_SLG	0.5088
predicted_SO	0.8070

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0880	0.0150	0.0405	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8240	3.2150	3.4281	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2740	0.2735	0.2737	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5590	0.9120	0.7884	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0100	0.8790	0.9248	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2800	0.2470	0.2586	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4270	0.4269	0.4269	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6180	0.7160	0.6817	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.3150	0.3307	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5090	0.5088	0.5089	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7650	0.8070	0.7923	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.262

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260505_TOR@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	691406
playerID	691406
playerName	Junior Caminero
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	TB
teamID	27

Taylor Walls (670764) · BATTER · SS · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 23

All-history rows before 20260506: 23

System season_avg: 0.1970

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1972

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.130	0.000	-0.130	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.087	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.087	3.000	-0.087	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.197	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.197	0.333	0.136	0.000
predicted_BB	0.391	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.391	0.000	-0.391	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_H	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.609	1.000	0.391	0.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.292	0.333	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.296	0.333	0.037	0.000
predicted_R	0.478	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.478	0.000	-0.478	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.260	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.261	2.000	-0.261	-2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.217	0.000	-0.217	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.262	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.239	0.333	0.094	0.000
predicted_SO	0.913	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.913	0.000	0.087	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.130	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.087	-
predicted_AVG	0.197	-
predicted_BB	0.391	-
predicted_H	0.500	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.292	-
predicted_R	0.478	-
predicted_RBI	0.260	-
predicted_SLG	0.262	-
predicted_SO	0.913	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.168	0.038
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.950	-0.137
predicted_AVG	0.197	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.392	0.001
predicted_H	0.543	0.043
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.292	0.000
predicted_R	0.438	-0.040
predicted_RBI	0.285	0.025
predicted_SLG	0.262	0.000
predicted_SO	0.774	-0.139

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.09), rates preserved: AVG=0.176 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, BvP AVG=0.429)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 23

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	0.2000	0.2500	0.2667	0.2000	0.1333	0.0667	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	-	26.000	5.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	6.000	7.000	0.1923	0.3438	0.2692	0.1923	0.0769	0.2308	0.2692
season	0.20	23	-	71.000	14.000	3.000	6.000	11.000	9.000	21.000	0.1972	0.2963	0.2394	0.1972	0.0845	0.1268	0.2958

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1880
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.8770
predicted_AVG	0.1967
predicted_BB	0.3920
predicted_H	0.5660
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.2921
predicted_R	0.4170
predicted_RBI	0.2990
predicted_SLG	0.2621
predicted_SO	0.7000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1300	0.1880	0.1677	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0870	2.8770	2.9505	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1970	0.1967	0.1968	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3910	0.3920	0.3917	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5000	0.5660	0.5429	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2920	0.2921	0.2921	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4780	0.4170	0.4384	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2600	0.2990	0.2853	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2620	0.2621	0.2621	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9130	0.7000	0.7745	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	23
Season rows before report date	23
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	23
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.197

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260504_TOR@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	670764
playerID	670764
playerName	Taylor Walls
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	TB
teamID	27

Jonathan Aranda (666018) · BATTER · 1B · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 33

All-history rows before 20260506: 33

System season_avg: 0.2800

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2800

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.152	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.152	1.000	0.848	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.788	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.788	4.000	-0.788	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.428	0.667	0.667	Hitting_AVG	0.280	0.500	0.387	0.167
predicted_BB	0.515	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.515	0.000	0.485	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.560	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	1.061	2.000	0.939	0.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.212	0.000	-0.212	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.445	0.750	0.750	Hitting_OBP	0.363	0.500	0.387	0.250
predicted_R	0.515	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.515	0.000	-0.515	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.790	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.879	1.000	-0.879	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.577	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SLG	0.488	0.750	0.512	0.250
predicted_SO	1.061	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.061	0.000	-1.061	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.152	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.788	-
predicted_AVG	0.428	-
predicted_BB	0.515	-
predicted_H	1.560	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.445	-
predicted_R	0.515	-
predicted_RBI	0.790	-
predicted_SLG	0.577	-
predicted_SO	1.061	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.154	0.002
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.980	0.192
predicted_AVG	0.428	0.000
predicted_BB	0.252	-0.263
predicted_H	1.683	0.123
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.143	0.013
predicted_OBP	0.445	-0.000
predicted_R	0.423	-0.092
predicted_RBI	0.854	0.064
predicted_SLG	0.577	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.110	0.049

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.98), rates preserved: AVG=0.423 HR/AB=0.036

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	2.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	2.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	11.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	6.000	0.5238	0.5238	0.5714	0.5238	0.0000	0.1905	0.0000	0.2857
last_10	0.35	10	-	41.000	16.000	1.000	3.000	10.000	5.000	0.000	11.000	0.3902	0.3902	0.6341	0.3902	0.0732	0.2439	0.0000	0.2683
season	0.20	33	-	125.000	35.000	5.000	7.000	29.000	17.000	17.000	35.000	0.2800	0.3630	0.4880	0.2800	0.0560	0.2320	0.1360	0.2800

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1550
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.0830
predicted_AVG	0.4283
predicted_BB	0.1110
predicted_H	1.7490
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.1500
predicted_OBP	0.4449
predicted_R	0.3730
predicted_RBI	0.8880
predicted_SLG	0.5767
predicted_SO	1.1370

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1520	0.1550	0.1540	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7880	4.0830	3.9798	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.4280	0.4283	0.4282	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5150	0.1110	0.2524	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.5600	1.7490	1.6829	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1500	0.1430	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4450	0.4449	0.4449	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5150	0.3730	0.4227	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7900	0.8880	0.8537	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5770	0.5767	0.5768	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0610	1.1370	1.1104	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.28

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260505_TOR@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	666018
playerID	666018
playerName	Jonathan Aranda
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	TB
teamID	27

Ben Williamson (810938) · BATTER · 2B · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 24

All-history rows before 20260506: 24

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.217	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.208	0.000	-0.208	0.000
predicted_3B	0.043	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.042	0.000	-0.042	0.000
predicted_AB	3.478	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.333	4.000	0.667	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.272	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.500	0.000	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.348	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.790	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.833	2.000	0.167	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.322	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.326	0.500	-0.076	-0.250
predicted_R	0.478	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.458	0.000	-0.458	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.260	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.458	1.000	-0.458	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.319	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.338	0.500	-0.088	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.870	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.833	1.000	1.167	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.217	-
predicted_3B	0.043	-
predicted_AB	3.478	-
predicted_AVG	0.272	-
predicted_BB	0.348	-
predicted_H	0.790	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.322	-
predicted_R	0.478	-
predicted_RBI	0.260	-
predicted_SLG	0.319	-
predicted_SO	0.870	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.127	-0.090
predicted_3B	0.044	0.001
predicted_AB	3.542	0.064
predicted_AVG	0.272	0.000
predicted_BB	0.294	-0.054
predicted_H	0.909	0.119
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.322	0.000
predicted_R	0.357	-0.121
predicted_RBI	0.298	0.038
predicted_SLG	0.319	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.776	-0.094

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.54), rates preserved: AVG=0.257 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 23

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	0.2778	0.3158	0.2778	0.2778	0.0556	0.0556	0.1667
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	10.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	3.000	8.000	0.2778	0.3333	0.3611	0.2778	0.1111	0.0833	0.2222
season	0.20	23	-	80.000	20.000	5.000	1.000	10.000	11.000	8.000	20.000	0.2500	0.3182	0.3375	0.2500	0.1250	0.1000	0.2500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0790
predicted_3B	0.0440
predicted_AB	3.5760
predicted_AVG	0.2722
predicted_BB	0.2650
predicted_H	0.9730
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.3224
predicted_R	0.2920
predicted_RBI	0.3180
predicted_SLG	0.3189
predicted_SO	0.7250

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2170	0.0790	0.1273	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0430	0.0440	0.0436	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4780	3.5760	3.5417	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2720	0.2722	0.2721	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3480	0.2650	0.2940	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7900	0.9730	0.9089	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3220	0.3224	0.3223	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4780	0.2920	0.3571	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2600	0.3180	0.2977	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3190	0.3189	0.3189	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8700	0.7250	0.7757	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	24
Season rows before report date	24
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	23
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS-2B
gameID	20260505_TOR@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	810938
playerID	810938
playerName	Ben Williamson
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	TB
teamID	27

Yandy Díaz (650490) · BATTER · DH · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 33

All-history rows before 20260506: 33

System season_avg: 0.3200

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3200

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.091	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_3B	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_AB	3.830	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.788	4.000	0.212	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.299	0.750	0.750	Hitting_AVG	0.320	0.250	0.430	0.500
predicted_BB	0.394	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.394	0.000	-0.394	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.150	3.000	3.000	Hitting_H	1.212	1.000	1.788	2.000
predicted_HR	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.152	0.000	-0.152	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.341	0.750	0.750	Hitting_OBP	0.406	0.250	0.344	0.500
predicted_R	0.606	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.606	1.000	0.394	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.520	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.667	1.000	0.333	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.466	0.750	0.750	Hitting_SLG	0.480	0.250	0.270	0.500
predicted_SO	0.485	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.485	0.000	0.515	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.091	-
predicted_3B	0.030	-
predicted_AB	3.830	-
predicted_AVG	0.299	-
predicted_BB	0.394	-
predicted_H	1.150	-
predicted_HR	0.200	-
predicted_OBP	0.341	-
predicted_R	0.606	-
predicted_RBI	0.520	-
predicted_SLG	0.466	-
predicted_SO	0.485	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.043	-0.048
predicted_3B	0.014	-0.016
predicted_AB	3.683	-0.147
predicted_AVG	0.299	0.000
predicted_BB	0.257	-0.137
predicted_H	1.103	-0.047
predicted_HBP	0.065	-
predicted_HR	0.194	-0.006
predicted_OBP	0.341	-0.000
predicted_R	0.650	0.044
predicted_RBI	0.498	-0.022
predicted_SLG	0.466	0.000
predicted_SO	0.358	-0.127

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.83), rates preserved: AVG=0.288 HR/AB=0.051

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, BvP AVG=0.300)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.830

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	0.2778	0.2778	0.4444	0.2778	0.0556	0.1111	0.0000	0.0556
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	11.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	8.000	3.000	3.000	0.3143	0.3846	0.4857	0.3143	0.0571	0.1429	0.0857	0.0857
season	0.20	33	-	125.000	40.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	22.000	20.000	13.000	16.000	0.3200	0.4056	0.4800	0.3200	0.0400	0.1760	0.1040	0.1280

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0170
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.6030
predicted_AVG	0.2990
predicted_BB	0.1830
predicted_H	1.0770
predicted_HBP	0.0650
predicted_HR	0.1910
predicted_OBP	0.3407
predicted_R	0.6740
predicted_RBI	0.4870
predicted_SLG	0.4660
predicted_SO	0.2900

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0910	0.0170	0.0429	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0300	0.0060	0.0144	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8300	3.6030	3.6825	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2990	0.2990	0.2990	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3940	0.1830	0.2569	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1500	1.0770	1.1025	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0650	0.0650	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2000	0.1910	0.1941	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3410	0.3407	0.3408	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6060	0.6740	0.6502	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5200	0.4870	0.4985	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4660	0.4660	0.4660	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4850	0.2900	0.3582	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	3
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.32

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260505_TOR@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	650490
playerID	650490
playerName	Yandy Díaz
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	TB
teamID	27

Jonny DeLuca (676356) · BATTER · CF · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 16

All-history rows before 20260506: 16

System season_avg: 0.2630

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2632

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.188	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.188	0.000	-0.188	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.562	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.562	4.000	-0.562	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.261	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.263	0.250	0.070	0.083
predicted_BB	0.188	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.188	0.000	0.812	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.870	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.938	1.000	0.062	0.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.282	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.300	0.250	0.200	0.250
predicted_R	0.562	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.562	0.000	0.438	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.140	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.375	0.000	0.625	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.188	0.000	-0.188	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.326	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.368	0.250	-0.035	0.083
predicted_SO	0.625	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.625	1.000	-0.625	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.188	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.562	-
predicted_AVG	0.261	-
predicted_BB	0.188	-
predicted_H	0.870	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.282	-
predicted_R	0.562	-
predicted_RBI	0.140	-
predicted_SLG	0.326	-
predicted_SO	0.625	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.195	0.007
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.617	0.055
predicted_AVG	0.261	0.000
predicted_BB	0.138	-0.050
predicted_H	0.923	0.053
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.012	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.282	0.000
predicted_R	0.422	-0.140
predicted_RBI	0.146	0.006
predicted_SLG	0.326	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.636	0.011

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.62), rates preserved: AVG=0.255 HR/AB=0.003

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	0.2632	0.2632	0.3158	0.2632	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.1579
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	9.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	7.000	0.2571	0.2973	0.3143	0.2571	0.0000	0.0571	0.0571	0.2000
season	0.20	16	-	57.000	15.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	9.000	3.000	10.000	0.2632	0.3000	0.3684	0.2632	0.0175	0.1053	0.0526	0.1754

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1980
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.6470
predicted_AVG	0.2611
predicted_BB	0.1110
predicted_H	0.9520
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0130
predicted_OBP	0.2825
predicted_R	0.3470
predicted_RBI	0.1500
predicted_SLG	0.3258
predicted_SO	0.6420

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1880	0.1980	0.1945	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5620	3.6470	3.6173	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2610	0.2611	0.2611	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1880	0.1110	0.1380	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8700	0.9520	0.9233	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0130	0.0119	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2820	0.2825	0.2823	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5620	0.3470	0.4223	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1400	0.1500	0.1465	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3260	0.3258	0.3259	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6250	0.6420	0.6361	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.263

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF-RF
gameID	20260504_TOR@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	676356
playerID	676356
playerName	Jonny DeLuca
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	TB
teamID	27

Nick Fortes (663743) · BATTER · C · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 21

All-history rows before 20260506: 21

System season_avg: 0.2700

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2703

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.238	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.238	0.000	-0.238	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.524	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.524	3.000	0.476	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.204	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.270	0.333	-0.270	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.600	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.952	1.000	-0.952	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.048	0.000	-0.048	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.216	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.289	0.333	-0.289	-0.333
predicted_R	0.238	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.238	0.000	-0.238	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.237	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.378	0.333	-0.378	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.571	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.571	1.000	1.429	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.238	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.524	-
predicted_AVG	0.204	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.600	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.216	-
predicted_R	0.238	-
predicted_RBI	0.090	-
predicted_SLG	0.237	-
predicted_SO	0.571	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.135	-0.103
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.356	-0.168
predicted_AVG	0.204	0.000
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.643	0.043
predicted_HBP	0.053	-
predicted_HR	0.009	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.216	0.000
predicted_R	0.135	-0.103
predicted_RBI	0.095	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.237	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.587	0.016

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.52), rates preserved: AVG=0.182 HR/AB=0.003

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, BvP AVG=0.400)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	0.1875	0.1875	0.1875	0.1875	0.0000	0.0000	0.1875
last_10	0.35	10	-	32.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	0.1875	0.2121	0.2188	0.1875	0.0000	0.0312	0.1875
season	0.20	21	-	74.000	20.000	5.000	1.000	7.000	5.000	12.000	0.2703	0.2895	0.3784	0.2703	0.0135	0.0946	0.1622

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0800
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.2650
predicted_AVG	0.2041
predicted_BB	0.0000
predicted_H	0.6660
predicted_HBP	0.0530
predicted_HR	0.0090
predicted_OBP	0.2165
predicted_R	0.0800
predicted_RBI	0.0970
predicted_SLG	0.2366
predicted_SO	0.5960

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2380	0.0800	0.1353	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5240	3.2650	3.3556	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2040	0.2041	0.2041	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6000	0.6660	0.6429	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0530	0.0530	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0090	0.0094	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2160	0.2165	0.2163	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2380	0.0800	0.1353	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0900	0.0970	0.0946	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2370	0.2366	0.2367	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5710	0.5960	0.5873	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.27

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260504_TOR@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	663743
playerID	663743
playerName	Nick Fortes
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	TB
teamID	27

Chandler Simpson (802415) · BATTER · LF · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 33

All-history rows before 20260506: 33

System season_avg: 0.2990

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2985

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_3B	0.061	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.061	0.000	-0.061	0.000
predicted_AB	4.061	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.061	4.000	-0.061	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.271	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.299	0.500	-0.299	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.212	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.212	0.000	-0.212	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.121	0.000	-0.121	0.000
predicted_H	0.930	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.212	2.000	-1.212	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.287	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.329	0.500	-0.329	-0.500
predicted_R	0.455	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.455	1.000	0.545	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.140	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.182	0.000	0.818	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.287	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.336	0.500	-0.336	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.455	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.455	0.000	-0.455	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.030	-
predicted_3B	0.061	-
predicted_AB	4.061	-
predicted_AVG	0.271	-
predicted_BB	0.212	-
predicted_H	0.930	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.287	-
predicted_R	0.455	-
predicted_RBI	0.140	-
predicted_SLG	0.287	-
predicted_SO	0.455	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.038	0.008
predicted_3B	0.029	-0.032
predicted_AB	4.006	-0.055
predicted_AVG	0.271	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.148	-0.064
predicted_H	1.026	0.096
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.287	-0.000
predicted_R	0.566	0.110
predicted_RBI	0.154	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.287	0.000
predicted_SO	0.694	0.238

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.06), rates preserved: AVG=0.253 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 4.061

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	0.000	5.000	0.2500	0.2500	0.2500	0.2500	0.0500	0.0000	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	11.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	8.000	0.2821	0.3095	0.3077	0.2821	0.0256	0.0513	0.2051
season	0.20	33	-	134.000	40.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	15.000	7.000	15.000	0.2985	0.3287	0.3358	0.2985	0.0448	0.0522	0.1119

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0420
predicted_3B	0.0120
predicted_AB	3.9770
predicted_AVG	0.2709
predicted_BB	0.1130
predicted_H	1.0770
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.2866
predicted_R	0.6250
predicted_RBI	0.1610
predicted_SLG	0.2874
predicted_SO	0.8220

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0300	0.0420	0.0378	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0610	0.0120	0.0291	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0610	3.9770	4.0064	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2710	0.2709	0.2709	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2120	0.1130	0.1477	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9300	1.0770	1.0255	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2870	0.2866	0.2867	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4550	0.6250	0.5655	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1400	0.1610	0.1537	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2870	0.2874	0.2873	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4550	0.8220	0.6935	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.299

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260505_TOR@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	802415
playerID	802415
playerName	Chandler Simpson
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	TB
teamID	27

Shane McClanahan (663556) · PITCHER · Starter · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 6

All-history rows before 20260506: 6

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.667	0.000	-1.667
predicted_IP	6.000	6.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.717	6.000	1.283
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	-	Pitching_SO	5.000	5.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 6.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	24.333	8.000	19.000	10.000	26.000	1.000	2.9589	1.1918	0.3288	0.7808	0.4110	1.0685	0.0411
last_10	0.35	6	29.000	10.000	21.000	13.000	30.000	1.000	3.1034	1.1724	0.3448	0.7241	0.4483	1.0345	0.0345
season	0.20	6	29.000	10.000	21.000	13.000	30.000	1.000	3.1034	1.1724	0.3448	0.7241	0.4483	1.0345	0.0345

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.0920
predicted_ER	1.6370
predicted_ERA	3.0384
predicted_H	3.6350
predicted_HR	0.1820
predicted_IP	4.8480
predicted_SO	5.0900
predicted_WHIP	1.1811

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	2.0920	1.3598	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	1.6370	1.0640	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.0384	3.0384	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	3.6350	2.7128	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1820	0.1183	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	6.0000	4.8480	5.2512	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	5.0900	5.0585	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1811	1.1811	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	6.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	5
HR	0
BF	19
Pitches	82

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	20
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.10
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	4
Pitching_H	5
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	73
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	5
Pitching_Strikes	48
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260501_SF@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	663556
playerID	663556
playerName	Shane McClanahan
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	TB
teamID	27

Bryan Baker (641329) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 15

All-history rows before 20260506: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.267	0.000	0.733	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.880	0.100	0.120	0.900
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	0.000	-1.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.333	0.000	2.000	0.000	5.000	0.000	0.0000	0.4615	0.0000	0.4615	0.0000	1.1539	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.667	3.000	6.000	3.000	8.000	0.000	3.1154	1.0385	0.3462	0.6923	0.3462	0.9231	0.0000
season	0.20	15	13.667	4.000	9.000	3.000	15.000	1.000	2.6341	0.8780	0.2927	0.6585	0.2195	1.0976	0.0732

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1450
predicted_ER	0.1570
predicted_ERA	1.6172
predicted_H	0.5090
predicted_HR	0.0130
predicted_IP	0.8760
predicted_SO	0.9300
predicted_WHIP	0.7468

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1450	0.0943	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.1570	0.4520	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.6172	1.6172	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.5090	0.6808	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0130	0.3584	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.8760	0.9194	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.9300	0.6045	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.7468	0.7468	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	1
BF	4
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	1
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.63
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	3
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	2
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_TOR@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	641329
playerID	641329
playerName	Bryan Baker
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TB
teamID	27

Cole Sulser (642121) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 15

All-history rows before 20260506: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.400	0.000	1.600	2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.233	1.000	-0.233	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.333	0.000	2.000	1.000	6.000	0.000	0.0000	0.5625	0.0000	0.3750	0.1875	1.1250	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	11.000	2.000	8.000	4.000	8.000	0.000	1.6364	1.0909	0.1818	0.7273	0.3636	0.7273	0.0000
season	0.20	15	19.667	6.000	19.000	8.000	15.000	1.000	2.7458	1.3729	0.3051	0.9661	0.4068	0.7627	0.0508

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3300
predicted_ER	0.1410
predicted_ERA	1.1219
predicted_H	0.6950
predicted_HR	0.0110
predicted_IP	1.1270
predicted_SO	1.0300
predicted_WHIP	0.9095

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3300	0.5645	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.1410	0.7916	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.1219	1.1219	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	0.6950	1.5017	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0110	0.0072	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.1270	1.0825	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0300	1.0195	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9095	0.9095	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	3
R	2
ER	2
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	7
Pitches	27

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.75
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_TOR@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	642121
playerID	642121
playerName	Cole Sulser
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TB
teamID	27

Ian Seymour (693855) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260506: 15

All-history rows before 20260506: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.940	1.100	0.060	-0.100
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.267	2.000	0.733	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	5.000	0.000	0.0000	1.4000	0.0000	0.6000	0.8000	1.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	11.667	4.000	9.000	7.000	14.000	1.000	3.0857	1.3714	0.3429	0.7714	0.6000	1.2000	0.0857
season	0.20	14	16.667	5.000	12.000	7.000	19.000	1.000	2.7000	1.1400	0.3000	0.7200	0.4200	1.1400	0.0600

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.7170
predicted_ER	0.1970
predicted_ERA	1.6200
predicted_H	0.7500
predicted_HR	0.0460
predicted_IP	1.0960
predicted_SO	1.2040
predicted_WHIP	1.3380

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.7170	0.8160	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1970	0.1280	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.6200	1.6200	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7500	0.4875	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0460	0.0299	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0960	1.0624	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.2040	1.4826	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3380	1.3380	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	2
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	24

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.40
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	28
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	19
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_TOR@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	693855
playerID	693855
playerName	Ian Seymour
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TB
teamID	27